Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/17 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Only One Ohtani; Bouncebacks Pt. 2

Episode Date: January 17, 2018

There will be only one Shohei Ohtani in CBS Sports Fantasy leagues! We'll tell you how much his value changes in daily formats vs. weekly formats (4:00) ... Aside from Ohtani's value in different form...ats, what kind of Fantasy production do we expect (5:10)? Innings will be a problem for him ... Who will bounce back this season? We discuss A.J. Pollock (19:30), Matt Carpenter (25:08), Jon Lester (32:00), Trevor Story (34:45), Cole Hamels (38:40) and Ian Desmond (42:20) ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:14 We have made a decision on Show Hey Otani and how we will treat him on CBS Sports. And we're also talking some more bounceback candidates for 2018. Welcome, everybody. I am Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R on Twitter. Everybody state your name and give your Twitter handle right now. I'm Chris Towers. Hi, Chris. Hi, Towers, CBS, and I'm going to show hey you the way to use him.
Starting point is 00:00:39 I'm not letting you get away from that, Adam. What do you mean? It's getting in the podcast. fine, it's it, it's it. So you want to explain what just happened? Adam, Adam is very self-conscious about his intros and altros. And he, that was what, the fourth one?
Starting point is 00:00:55 Yeah, I think so. I think so, yeah. And the first one was, we're going to show hey, you the way. And then he got very, very upset himself. It was so bad. It was so bad. It was bad, but it was good. Well, Chris, well, you know, you have such lowest standards for comedy.
Starting point is 00:01:13 Chris, welcome. Who's next? Who wants to introduce themselves to the audience? Just close standards, period. Good luck to that. I'm Heath Cummings at Heath Cummings, S.R. I'm Scott White at CBS. Scott White. Well, hello, everybody.
Starting point is 00:01:27 And welcome to our fun. I said Skaw White. It's not Scott White. You did? It's Scott White. I heard Scott. We all knew. Scott White was your name when you were the lead singer of a ska man. Yeah, exactly. Scott White.
Starting point is 00:01:38 No, we were. The mighty, mighty funk cats. We were like, yeah. Okay. You know the cast and. characters. If you are a new listener, we welcome you to fantasy baseball today. We podcast every day during the season, five days a week, not the weekends. And we have a lot of fun. We help you win. We're going to get up to five days per week pretty soon. We take a lot of
Starting point is 00:01:55 your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Last year, we talked an in an ornament amount about the versatility of raisins. So those are the types of things you get on this podcast as well. But let's talk about Shohay Otani. First of all, what do you think about Show Hey Girl as a team name? Sure. Yeah. It works. I heard worse. Yeah. So hey girl. It's not quite Yasmani Tomas more problems. Yosmani, money, money, Tomas problem. Okay. Yeah. It's not quite that. But obviously.
Starting point is 00:02:27 Right. You can't hold it up to the standard of the greatest fantasy baseball team name ever created. No, no, absolutely not. It falls off the tongue. Chris Dowers. But I have low standards. You wrote the article on it. So what have we decided? There will be one show Hey, Otani. CBS Fantasy Leagues, you will have to make a decision whenever your lineups lock,
Starting point is 00:02:47 either daily or weekly, about whether you want to use him as a starting pitcher or a hitter. And his category stats will only count for whichever one you pick him as. Now, this is basically just he's dual eligible. It's just the first time we've had a dual eligible pitcher and hitter. So that's the only difference. I think it's the best option. This idea that his hitting stats should count when he's. he's a pitcher is ludicrous.
Starting point is 00:03:16 So I think this is the right way to go. Ludicrous Towers, yeah, I agree. That would be unfair. Well, it would just mean we'd have to make every pitchers hitting. And nobody... If both the hitting and pitching stats would count at the same time, then that would be true. That would have to be true of every player to be fair. I like the idea of an NL only league where all pitchers stats count.
Starting point is 00:03:40 Just to something different. I just... But it's really too wonk. when you have AL pictures that don't hit. Right. Yeah, if it's, if it was just an NL only league and every pitcher, it was, you know, had the same access to a bats, it would be fair. But, yeah, if every pitcher's stats counted, it would put NL pitchers as a distinct
Starting point is 00:04:00 disadvantage since pitchers buying larger bat at hitting. And they have NL pitchers obviously get a lot more at bats than AAL. And really the big impact here is in seasonally, in weekly leagues where you just set your line up once a week. it's pretty likely he's going to use him as a pitcher, right? Just about every week. But in daily leagues where you set your lineup every day, it's going to be different.
Starting point is 00:04:21 Scott, I know you think could change his value quite a bit in those types of leagues. If he's actually good at both, now it's possible he's not a good hitter. It's possible he's not good at either. But let's just say he's everything we wanted to be as a pitcher. But the hitting aspect, he's just not getting enough reps to thrive at that. then obviously that aspect is wasted even in a daily league. So, you know, I wouldn't go Hog Wilde over him this year before we even know how it's going to play out.
Starting point is 00:04:53 But he probably moves up about, you know, I have him 1.30 in Categories leagues, you know, just standard, I think it's a weekly format. If it's a daily format, I might move him up into the top 80, top 70 even. Heath, where are you drafting Shohei Otani? I'm not. I'm one of my team names is going to be Shohei Notani. Why?
Starting point is 00:05:17 I'm not going to draft any Otani this year. I don't think, like, what Scott said in the 130 range is fine. I don't expect he's going to be around in the 11th round very often. Someone's going to get overly excited and draft him. And there's just too many hurdles to clear, in my opinion, for him to be, like, I don't expect him to throw more than 100. It's really hard to be a good fantasy pitcher at 140 innings. And it's not like he's going to throw 140 innings because he pitches four months normally and then has shut down for a month. He's going to throw 140 innings but have weeks where he doesn't pitch at all because he's part of a six-man rotation.
Starting point is 00:05:59 He's almost never going to give you two start weeks. Is that confirmed? They are aiming to have a six-man rotation. It's pretty much the only way they can make it. It's worth noting no pitching plan actually works out. Like it's just whatever your plan is. If you wanted to go with a four-man rotation, a five-man rotation, a nine-man rotation, a nine-man
Starting point is 00:06:20 rotation with the same nine pitchers. Like, some pitchers get hurt. Like something like 40% of pitchers starting pitchers go on the disabled list at some point during any given seat. But they could pretty clearly just say, Shohay Otani is going to pitch on five days' rest, at least. Sure. He's not going to pitch on anything less than five days' rest.
Starting point is 00:06:37 That's my expectation for him. Maybe once or twice. You put it up upper cap of 140 innings. I go a little higher 160 is the most I could see Otani getting in this role. But either way, the point is that he's not going to – like, there are clear limits to usage on both the hitting end and the pitching end since he is trying to do both. I mean, his body needs a chance to recover like everybody does. So that's – and you're having to commit every scoring period, even though he's –
Starting point is 00:07:09 dual eligible, you're still having to commit to him in one role or the other. So it pretty much eliminates the chances of him being elite. Now, I rank him among pitchers, I rank him right alongside Rich Hill because I think inning for inning, I think he could be as good as Rich Hill. And Rich Hill obviously has plenty of value in fantasy still, but because we suspect their innings limitations for him just because durability in his age and whatever, you know, we've seen him throw less than 150 innings each of the last two years. So I'd probably put about a 160 cap on Hill, just like I do on Otani. The upside for Otani is probably 2017 Robbie Ray.
Starting point is 00:07:50 Like the absolute, and that was like Robbie Ray had an amazing season. 12 strikeouts per nine ended up with over 200 strikeouts despite only throwing 160 innings. I wouldn't expect Otani to strike out 12. I don't think that's a realistic upside. But his strikeout rate in Japan, relative to the league average, the league average strikeout rate in Japan is lower than it is in America. You know, extrapolating that out does get him to, you know, around 11.
Starting point is 00:08:16 There's no easy way to make that transfer, but he does project to be an elite strikeout pitcher. Well, Robbie Ray is a good example. He threw 162 innings last year, and Robbie Ray finished as the number 13 starting pitcher in points leagues, and the number nine starting pitcher in rotisserie leagues. He had a 289 ERA. He had a 1.15 whip and 218 strikeouts in 162 innings. Holy cow, that was one hell of a year for Robbie Ray. I mean, he's kind of, among all starting pitchers, he's kind of an outlier with the strikeouts.
Starting point is 00:08:51 But let me, can I give you another example? I mean, if we're talking best, like, that is literally a best case scenario, scenario for Otani, like something he has, you know, less than a 5% chance of achieving. All right. But, you know, that's kind of the best case scenario for any pitcher on 160 in it. All right, let me give you another one. Alex Wood. Alex Wood threw 152 and a third.
Starting point is 00:09:15 Now, the win loss is huge for him. He went 16 and 3. But he was the number 15 starting pitcher in points leagues, and he was number 12 in Roto. Alex Wood on 152 and a third with a 16 and 3 record, 272 ERA, and a 1.06 whip. a strikeout per inning. What do you think about that, him being top 15 at 152 and a third? Again, it sounds more like a best case scenario than the most likely scenario, but it seems plausible.
Starting point is 00:09:51 I think it may be more likely something like C.C. Sabhafia, 148 innings of a 369 and 127. A lot more strikeouts. I would think more strikeouts, yeah. But yeah, in terms of the three, rate stats, that's probably a more realistic outcome. He's probably not going to step into the majors and set the world on fire. Maybe Charlie Morton. I'm sticking with my Rich Hill comp. I don't know why you guys keep trying to improve it. I think it's good. He is, the most likely outcome is that he's not that valuable in a weekly league as either a hitter or a pitcher. Rich Hill had a 332
Starting point is 00:10:25 ERA, a 1.09 whip, and 166 strikeouts in 135 and two-thirds. He did not finish very high in the starting pitching rankings. I don't even know if he was top 40. He's probably around 40th or so. Yeah. But it's a guy like, you know, obviously there's overall rank and there's per, there's overall production and there's per appearance production. And per appearance, I mean, they both mean something.
Starting point is 00:10:51 Mm-hmm. But a pitcher who is better per start is better than just where he places in the standings. Because obviously where you're slotting, the impact he's making the moment you start him is bigger than just the impact of the 50th pitcher. I guess I would. The only reason I've had Hill higher is I do think their innings are probably similar. I think it's more likely that Hill's innings come over a three and a half month stretch and he spends a month on the DL. and Otani's 140 innings, I'm thinking he doesn't have a DEL stint. And that's the reason why you shouldn't reach on Otani is if, I don't know, random, if Jeff Samarja goes on the DL, he could still get to 160 innings.
Starting point is 00:11:34 If Shohay Otani has a month-long DL stint, which is not that unexpected for any starting pitcher, let alone one who there are reports of ligament damage. now, I think that's kind of, that became a story. It's kind of dumb because I think if you did a physical on every single pitcher, every single offseason, 90% of them would probably have some kind of ligament damage in their elbow. But either way, we know that this exists. One DL stand, and you're looking at 110 innings. Yeah. And the other thing that he's saying is it's better to have a DL stint. You can just put the guy on your DL rather than having a guy who's going to be on your bench some weeks because he's just not starting.
Starting point is 00:12:16 and not having a two-star pitcher. A guy who's going to make so few two-star weeks is also tough in those head-to-head formats. Probably just much better in Roto. We don't have to worry about that quite as much. Yeah, I mean, it's pretty rare that teams play only five games in a week. I mean, there usually are a couple every week that do, but for the Angels specifically to have that happen over and over again. I'm not saying they may outright skip them sometimes.
Starting point is 00:12:41 Look, they may... We can look this up now. But, I mean, the thing is, too, if they're outright skipping them, if they're even using, even if they would, even if it's a situation where most teams would use a phantom injury to put a pitcher on the DL to preserve his innings, which happens pretty frequently today. They could just use Otani as a hitter during those times, you know? Like, and maybe that's a time when he is worth using starting as a hitter instead of a pitcher. I just want to wrap it. I'm not saying that they're going to not have six game weeks. I'm just saying you have a six-man rotation.
Starting point is 00:13:13 You're just going to have fewer two-star weeks. Is that simple? Yeah. Obviously. There won't be many two start weeks for Otani, but I don't think there will be many zero start weeks. There will be some of both. Next week, we will talk about some prospects. We're going to get to it today.
Starting point is 00:13:24 Scott's Top 100 prospects are out. We have plenty of time to talk about that. Next week we'll talk about some breakouts as well. There's going to be a lot of great content on CBSports.com slash fantasy. Just coming out in the next few weeks, all the draft you need. We still got a lot of time before the draft, but it'll be here before you know it before all your job start. Yeah. Can I interrupt?
Starting point is 00:13:45 No. I already did. Okay. You're asking, no? The Angels have two five-game weeks this season, week 17 and week 21. When you ask, can I interrupt and you do that by interrupting? Like, what? Yeah, what is that?
Starting point is 00:14:01 I'm just trying to be nice. It's trying to be nice. You're trying to be nice now? Sue me, sue me for trying to be kind and thoughtful. I appreciate it. I guess I'll just be more Chris, Chris. Now I want to tell you about the Sportsline DFS podcast. We gave out two lineups.
Starting point is 00:14:19 We gave out a Fandul lineup and a Draft King's lineup on yesterday's show. They both cashed for me. Every tournament is different. Every contest is different. But they both cashed. They were both pretty good. So we're giving out good advice. We're helping you win money.
Starting point is 00:14:32 And the show is only about 30 minutes, sometimes 40 minutes, something like that. So you've got time to listen to that. And other CBS Sports Podcasts or any podcast you want, but you really should only listen to CBS Sports Podcast. So it's called the SportsLine. DFS podcast. It's five days a week. And we give you some lineups for basketball, and pretty soon that will be baseball. And of course, football whenever that is relevant. So check that out in iTunes, Stitcher, tune in.
Starting point is 00:14:57 Anywhere you listen to a podcast, Sportsline, DFS podcast. News and notes before we get to the bounce back candidates that we didn't talk about yesterday. Andrew McCutcheon is embracing a move to right field saying that it may keep his legs fresh and lead to more steals. And he only played 13 games in right field last year. He did not steal a base. Did not have an attempt in those 13 games. But that's obviously a very small sample size. Can you buy that?
Starting point is 00:15:23 His stolen bases could go higher without playing center field. McCutcheon at 11 steals last year. Well, I'm sure Scott does. And I don't think Scott's necessarily wrong. Why are you putting words in my mouth? I believe it was you that coined the phrase last year, the stolen bases are mostly intent. Yeah, no, that's true.
Starting point is 00:15:40 do believe that. So that's why I'm putting words in your mouth, because you already put them there. And if Andrew McCutcheon wants to steal more bases this year, I would expect that he will still be more bases. If he is committed enough to doing it, then yes. But I think the way his, you know, four years now, the last 20 steel season he had was 2013. So in this particular instance, I'll need to see it to believe it. Okay. And McCutcheon has not had more than 11 steals in three straight seasons. Other news, not a lot here, but Josh Harrison seems to want out of Pittsburgh. Christian Yelich seems to desperately want out of Miami. Adrian Gonzalez, according to the New York Post, is the favorite to be the Mets primary first baseman. Weird. That is weird. Who could have
Starting point is 00:16:23 seen this coming? Oh, New York Mets. Dominic Smith really rubbed them the wrong way last year, huh? I mean, Adrian Gonzalez hasn't been good since 2015. Maybe they just want to motivate Dominic Smith, or maybe he's not going to start the season as the everyday first season? If Adrian Gonzalez is bad, it won't last, right? Right, right. Like, it'll, you know, they'll give him four to six weeks and he's batting 250 with a 680 OPS and they'll be like, all right, let's bring in the kid. You know what? If he's what he was in 2016, it probably lasts most of the year. Yeah, he was fine in 2016, he wasn't, he wasn't good, but he wasn't a good first base. He wasn't going to replace him. Yeah, yeah, he was like. you know, around the Mitch Moreland's level of first basements.
Starting point is 00:17:10 Did Dominic Smith, I'm going to look right now, did Dominic Smith get drafted in the early roto mock that we did? I would guess not. Yeah, I think we would, because that's only 23 rounds. It's only filling out a starting lineup. I would think we'd need some kind of bench to get that deep into the first base ranking. Well, how about this? Not only did Dominic Smith not get drafted, but according to Control F,
Starting point is 00:17:33 nobody named Smith got drafted in that league. Whoa. Incredible. Such a popular name. Smith's not that. The Smith's name is really going downhill in baseball circles. Well, I mean, all the, eventually all the, you know, all the, all the people with blacksmiths and their ancestry are all going to die off, right? I don't know why.
Starting point is 00:17:56 Why? I'm not sure where to go with this right now. Like before the rest of us do? No, I'm just, no. Why? Not in our lifetimes. Not in our lifetime. I'm just saying, like, why are the Smith's going to die off before the whites?
Starting point is 00:18:10 Because blacksmith is a distinct, you know, extinct, sorry, blacksmith is an extinct profession. And you think that they all just don't have jobs now? Are there some blacksmiths? Maybe there are some blacks. Don't put words in his mouth, he. There is still smelting to be done, Scott. Okay. All right, fair enough.
Starting point is 00:18:30 You don't like, it's, okay. And then two fun items. I regret saying anything. Two fun items. Jamaica's women's bobsled team qualified for its first Olympics. Sell the movie rights. Good stuff. And have you guys used the Google Arts and Culture app?
Starting point is 00:18:47 No. I have not. My wife has. Is it available on the iPhone? Yeah, I just downloaded it. You know the whole selfie thing? Yeah, I'm... What are they using this information for?
Starting point is 00:18:58 They already have all of your information. Yeah, but like my selfie. I don't have any Google selfies. They have a lot of pictures of you. No. There are no pictures. of me. Not selfies.
Starting point is 00:19:08 Google image, Chris Towers. Yeah, so you make a selfie, and then it shows you a portrait, a painting that looks like you. I'm assuming mine is like a Civil War General or something. Yeah,
Starting point is 00:19:17 probably. Probably. Although we did have a football listener who looked exactly like Chris Towers and tweeted us a picture of him winning a league, and it was like, oh my God, that's Chris. So you have any doppelgangers.
Starting point is 00:19:29 Anyone with a beard. Bounceback candidates, part two. All right, so let's start with A.J. Pollack. Here's what I have on the menu today. Pollock, Carpenter, Lester, Story, Hamels, and Ian Desmond.
Starting point is 00:19:44 God inspired, read his name last night, threw him in there. A.J. Pollock, last year he was 23rd in terms of where he was drafted. He was the 23rd pick in our points league. He was the 26th pick in our Categories League. In the two drafts we've done so far this year, or late 2017 for this upcoming season, AJ Pollock, about 20 to 30 picks later, 46th in points, 55th in the Roto draft. So he was a top outfielder. In 2015, he was third in points, second in Roto.
Starting point is 00:20:19 What do you think in 2018, though? It's been a little while now for A.J. Pollock, who is 30 years old. Can he bounce back to, let's say, early third round value? It's a possibility. I gather just from our early mock drafts that I am going to be in the industry, one of the lower people on AJ Pollack, because I feel like his success, his elite status and fantasy was dependent on him being really good at several things. And I'm just not sure if he's going to stand out in that many areas anymore. He didn't last year in either batting average or stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:20:57 I mean, stolen bases, he still gave you 20, but he wasn't a real standout in that category. And, you know, even if he bounces back in one of those areas, you're still talking about less than an elite player. So I have him, he's a top 20 outfielder for me, but it seems like some people still think of him more as a top 12 option. And I'm just not sure after, you know, so much, so many catastrophic injuries to that same elbow that I'm just not sure what he's really that good at anymore. The interesting thing is the batted ball data for him is all still very positive. Very high line drive rate, actually the highest of his career. Still hits a decent number of ground balls, something that you would expect to sustain a high BABIP, and yet he was only 2.91 last season.
Starting point is 00:21:49 I think he's probably someone who pretty sustainably could be like a 320 BABBB guy. And all of a sudden, if he's hitting 290, he starts looking a lot better. The real question for me is he's got one season in his career at 500 played appearances or more. Can he play a full season? And if he does play a full season, I would expect he's going to be a top 20 outfielder. Well, that's not very good to play a full season and be top. If he plays a full season, he obviously has top 10. I'm not disagreeing with you.
Starting point is 00:22:22 I'm just saying that's not really a great ringing endorsement. It's not a lot of upside to be a top 20 outfielder. What I didn't say upside as I'd expect? Right, right, right. No, I'm just saying. Where do you have him rank? Hold on. I just want to point one thing out.
Starting point is 00:22:34 He only played 112 games last year. I just wanted to say that because Scott mentioned he stole 20 bases. So he did that in 112 games. So maybe he's like a 25 steel guy. Something like that. But yeah, okay. Go on. Where do you have him right?
Starting point is 00:22:47 And I actually have him top 20? Right. So I guess I'm hoping he plays a full season. Well, I mean, compare him to another outfielder who we have probably has lower upside for batting average. but was 20-20 guy last year, Brett Gardner. And, I mean, we all like Pollock significantly more than Gardner. We're acknowledging there's upside in other areas that Gardner doesn't have. But I think there's also a possibility Pollock is just Brett Gardner.
Starting point is 00:23:17 And still, you know, obviously startable when he's healthy in that scenario, but not a real standout either. Yeah, Gardner was 264 with 21 homers and 23 steals. batting average is really the key for Pollack because when he was at his best, he batted 315 in 2015, and he showed us a little bit in 2014 with a 302 batting average, basically the same slash line as he had in 2015.
Starting point is 00:23:42 He just did it in 75 games. Then he really broke out, did it for a full season, and just hasn't been healthy since then. Do you find it, I find guys that were good when they were healthy, but don't say healthy that often. They're hard to evaluate. Because I don't want to. to just blame all of his struggles on injuries.
Starting point is 00:24:00 But if they are injury-related, like Dallas-Kichael, for example. It can make the case, Dallas-Kikil, when he's healthy, is the best pitcher in the American League. He won the Sa-Young when he was healthy. He was on his way to the-he was the front-runner for the Sa-Young when he was healthy last year, but he's not that healthy. And Pollock, he's like an elite player when he's healthy. I just don't know when he's been hurt and when he's been healthy.
Starting point is 00:24:21 How much did health contribute to his 260-something batting average last year, 266. You know what I'm saying? Yeah, if the batted ball profile was similar, I would think not much. But then again, you know, part of the reason with Miguel Cabrera and Matt Carpenter, why they had incredible bad at ball profiles last year, but not underwhelming production, relatively speaking. And part of the reason we think is because, oh, they were playing through injuries all year. So I'm still not even sure that aspect how to reconcile. what looks like quality contact with I'm playing hurt because it doesn't seem like that always
Starting point is 00:25:06 corresponds clearly. Yeah, so let's talk about Carpenter. He's a really good one to discuss here. Carpenter last year was drafted 28th in our points league, 40th overall, 47th overall in our Categories League, and Carpenter is definitely better in points than he is in categories or roto. This year, I think Chris took him 68th in points. And Carpenter's only first base eligible, right?
Starting point is 00:25:30 Yep. But it only takes five appearances at another position, so he could gain eligibility at some point. I'm just not sure how much third base eligibility is going to help him. Sure. Second base will be nice, but I don't know if that will happen. But 68th and points, 98th in Roto drafted this year. So a big drop for him.
Starting point is 00:25:48 Dual eligibility is not as much about positional scarcity as it is. is just the flexibility. That flexibility is valuable in and of itself. It does have some value. Yes. I think it's as well. I think it's all in on this third base is deep. I do think third base is deep.
Starting point is 00:26:07 I mean, it is deep. Like I thought going into last year, third base was the deepest I've ever seen at infield position. And, you know, as the year played out, that depth kind of got, you know, it got beaten down by attrition. So I don't know, I don't know that, you know, I don't know that I wouldn't welcome third base eligibility for anyone.
Starting point is 00:26:25 I don't know that it'll stay the deepest position all year. I'm not even convinced this is the deepest position now, to be honest. But I just want to throw that in there. As for Matt Carpenter, I don't understand how Matt Carpenter didn't have a better year than he did last year. He hit the absolute whatever you want to say out of the baseball. He does look a little bit different in the way that he went to. about it than in the past, but he still walks a ton. He had a hard contact rate over 40%.
Starting point is 00:26:58 If he continues to hit that many fly balls and hit the ball that hard, but he does it a 50% fly ball rate, maybe that's a little bit too high. But 12.2% home run to fly ball rate. It was his lowest since 2014, while also posting a career high, hard contact rate. So the one thing I will point out, and there could be like a selection bias in these numbers, I'm not sure, but according to Fangraph's split tool, he was shifted on 61, he had 61 played appearances end against a shift in 2015. In 2016, it was 212 and 2017. It was 289. Now, this doesn't take into account. Weird, because he had his lowest ground ball rate of his career.
Starting point is 00:27:41 Sure, but it doesn't take into account. Plays when you walked, plays when you struck out. It's just balls in play. So, you know, it's possible that there's some noise there. But he had his least productive season against the switch and was shifted more often. So it's possible that defenses have just figured something out in his bad and ball profile that's not necessarily. You know, shifts aren't just in the infield. There's lots of outfield shifts. I understand if you have a hard contact rate over 40% and a fly ball rate over 40%, the shift shouldn't matter as much because you shouldn't hit 23 home runs. Right.
Starting point is 00:28:15 He probably should have had more home runs last season. And, you know, he did have one of the biggest gaps. between his expected Wobah and his actual Wobah last season per stat cast. So how confident are you that Matt Carpenter is going to bounce back and be like fourth round, third to fourth round value? I don't know that he's that good because I just worry also about the fact that he's on the wrong age, wrong end of 30. And sometimes those numbers, when they start to go bad and we can't figure out why,
Starting point is 00:28:47 well, then the next year it's not that the numbers get better. it's that the batted ball profile starts to look more like the numbers did. I felt we were asking this question about Matt Carpenter at this time last year, right? Yeah. He really bounced back. He had an oblique injury at the second half that kind of messed up what looked like an MVP caliber first half. And is he going to bounce back from the oblique injury? Fine.
Starting point is 00:29:10 Except this year he was playing with a bum shoulder all year. He got shut down early because of it. He didn't have to have surgery in the offseason. but the very fact they were asking it makes me wonder if it's going to flare up again next year or if something new is going to happen, him being 32 years old.
Starting point is 00:29:29 I'd be happy taking Carpenter at a discount, but he is not somebody I'm actively pursuing and trusting will have this bounce back season. I'll give you something that may be a hot take. It's not that I want to trust him as a bounce back candidate, but I would rather draft him than Eric Hosmer in both formats. That's such a no-brainer to me. He went 98.
Starting point is 00:29:51 That's a no-brainer, really. I'd rather have Hosmer. I think most people, his... Hosmer will be drafted first. I can understand Carpenter a little more in a points league where he, you know, obviously he walks a lot. And that adds, you know, his 380 on base percentage even last year. But... Carpenter should hit more home runs than Hosmer this year.
Starting point is 00:30:13 In theory, yeah. But I would definitely give Hosmer a higher batting average. I think the home run production will be pretty close because Carpenter, I suspect, will miss some time that Hosmer won't. Yeah. Okay, well, Hosmer's coming up his best year. Career high slugging percentage, $49, but not a very high ISO. He just doesn't hit for a lot of power. But, no.
Starting point is 00:30:35 Who's that? I mean, Hosmer. But it worked out for him last year. It does not seem like the one thing I was hoping with Hosmer is he goes to the Red Sox or he goes somewhere with a good park and things change a little bit. But it sounds like he's going to be back in Kansas City or in San Diego. Neither one of those are really a big boost for him. Also, I'm not sure Carpenter deserves the injury-prone tag. All right, let's wrap up Carpenter if you want.
Starting point is 00:30:56 He missed 17 games last season, which is impacted by injury. 17 games last season is normal. Like, that's just I don't expect. But we're not talking about games missed. We're talking about compromised productive. That's the hard part in evaluating players sometimes. It's kind of what I was talking about with A.J. Pollock and why Carpenter was a good segue, because he's just you don't know how much the injuries have affected him.
Starting point is 00:31:15 And he did have a 9-98 OPS in the first half of two. 2016, as Scott said, like MVP caliber player. I wouldn't expect that. No. Then he heard his oblique. He was terrible. He hasn't really been good since. But that being said, Carpenter was the number 12 first baseman in points last year.
Starting point is 00:31:31 He's so good in that format. I wouldn't overstate how bad he was last. He was 25th, though, in Rhodes with a 274 Babbitt. But so much of that is OBP, right? I mean, and that's only good in specific formats. He's a 321 Babbup guy for his career. He had a 274. last season. The answer could simply be he had some bad luck.
Starting point is 00:31:52 It could be, yeah. Or it could be he was playing hurt. Or, yep, it could be a lot of things. All right, next guy on the bounceback list. How confident are you in John Lester? He fell – he was a third round pick in the drafts we did last year. He went 90th in our points league draft. He went 133rd in our roto draft earlier this year. That was a lot of – you know, kind of hitter heavy draft, but still 133 for John
Starting point is 00:32:16 Lester, who was 27th in points, 42nd, and Roto last season at the starting pitcher where he finished, you know, in the standings. So, Heath, how confident are you that John Lester will bounce back? I'm less confident that he's going to bounce back than I was that he had some regression coming at the end of 2016, because all the Cubs pitchers did at the end of 2016. Lester outperformed his FIP by a full run the year before. Last year, he was slightly worse than his FIP and quite a half run worse than his ex-fib. So I think he'll bounce back to have an ERA maybe in the mid-3s. What's really going to determine whether he bounces back from a fantasy perspective
Starting point is 00:32:53 is does he get back to 200 innings? And do the wins come back just a little bit? And I kind of lean towards they will. So with Lester, I'm a little worried about Lester because the velocity was down pretty substantially last year. And obviously he's in his mid-30s now, 34. he just turned 10 days ago. Happy the later birthday, John Lester. Hey, happy birthday.
Starting point is 00:33:23 But, I mean, he obviously has the potential for innings and with it wins that a lot of pitchers don't. So if he bounces back to a 350 ERA, which with, you know, diminished stuff, I think is still doable, probably going to be a top 20 pitcher in fantasy. I rank him just outside my top line. I think he's value right now. Yeah, I've got him back to back with Jose Contal. It used to be that Lester was an ace and had this potential to be. I don't think he's going to be a top ten pitcher necessarily,
Starting point is 00:33:51 but I do think he and Kintana are now very similar. Okay. And I'm hoping, I mean, maybe an optimistic approach to say with Lester is that he was just affected by the World Series run. He threw in 2016 35 and two-thirds extra innings. Well, not extra innings, not like, you know, after nine innings. But 35 and two-thirds innings in the postseason, which only brought him to two-thirds. 238 and a third. Not like an Adam Wainwright number.
Starting point is 00:34:19 He had like a 270 inning season not too long ago, but that was a lot. And maybe he struggled after that. And I kind of look at Jacob de Grom, who, you know, his final numbers weren't great, but he, you know, he did a lot of good things. Like strikeout rate went way up in 2017 after struggling in 2016 after a postseason run. So maybe, you know, maybe just giving an optimistic case for Lester, shorter season. And now he's fine. Let's go John Lester. Trevor's story. Okay, this guy feels almost irrelevant.
Starting point is 00:34:51 He was a fourth round pick in drafts last year. He went 115th in our points draft this year and 151st in our roto draft this season. So Trevor's story, can he bounce back, 25 years old? Yes. I'm not betting on it, but I think at shortstop where, you know, if you miss out on the top four or five, you're accepting lesser production anyway. I think story's a fine gamble in those middle stages of the draft. Obviously, there's still a lot of risk there with as much as he strikes out, but there's a lot of reward. There's a lot of built-in, you know, kind of if there's any place where he can have a gentle landing
Starting point is 00:35:36 from those strikeouts at scores field, it didn't work out for him last year. But I think there's much more upside there than most short stops you'll find at that similar stage of the draft. I just, I don't know how much better things get from last season. He was terrible. Maybe he cuts the strikeout rate to like 32%. And the home run rate goes up a little bit because he does hit the ball hard and he plays in course. You would expect higher than a 16% home run to fly ball rate.
Starting point is 00:36:05 But is he really that much better if he hits 28 home runs? Well, I mean, he bet at 239. You can't, you just, it's hard to be good. Right. And that was with a 332 Babbab. Which is probably right about what you'd expect. If he's got about 239, I'm just really not interested. Look, I think he has value. I just don't know how much better he gets.
Starting point is 00:36:24 Yeah, the path forward, I guess, is he was about a 25% strikeout guy at AA and AAA for the last two years. Or in 2015, maybe he gets it under 30 because he was only 31% as a rookie. So I think 29% is well within the range. If you cut 5% off, then his average is up closer to 240. 55 probably. Why are we assuming his home run production doesn't improve? He was on a much better pace his rookie season. Yeah, I think 30 home runs is very possible.
Starting point is 00:36:53 That's not, I mean, that seems kind of low. No, that doesn't seem low. 30. Yeah, I think 35 is within the realm of possible. Yes. Agreed. Well, and I just want to... If he's hitting 250 and hits 30 home runs, he's the top 10 shortstop.
Starting point is 00:37:11 Yeah, yeah. I just want to point out he was on pace to be the number three. two shortstop in fantasy in 2016. We batted 272 with 27 home runs in 97 games. It was really streaky, though. Really streaky. First two months, oh, no, April. He had a 1020 OPS in April.
Starting point is 00:37:29 Next two months he had, oh, no, I'm missing his bad streak. Sorry, this is incomplete data. But obviously, you know there were bumps in the road for Trevor Story. Really good, really bad, really good. And I guess that's going to happen with all the strikeouts. He's just going to be a streaky player. Right? Would you think? Yes.
Starting point is 00:37:46 Yeah, I would think so. And that streakiness, kind of like we've seen with C.Riss Davis, that streakiness may be a year-to-year thing, too. So who are you guys that you have a ranked around him? The Rockies do have one of the best shortstop prospects in baseball who was at AA last year, right? Did it perform very well at AA? But yes, I think that's – I would be surprised if Brendan's – and Rogers made a significant contribution in the majors this year, but he's obviously getting closer.
Starting point is 00:38:20 And, you know, DJ Lemay, he's approaching free agency, so maybe one of them moves to second base, and it doesn't really matter, but that is something to keep in mind. I have him 10th at shortstop ahead of your boy, D.D.D. Gregorius, and Scott's boy, Zetkozert. But just behind Paul DeYoung. Just behind Paul DeYoung. Okay.
Starting point is 00:38:42 Yep. All right, a couple more here. How about Cole Hamels? Cole Hamill's 149th in our points league draft, 236th in our roto draft. Is Cole Hamill's done, or can he bounce back? I think he's done.
Starting point is 00:38:58 Stick a fork in him. At that cost, I'm willing to bet on the possibility of him bouncing back. I think he's a fine, uh, fine guy to take a chance on him. That's well said. He's probably done.
Starting point is 00:39:11 velocity down strikeouts way down walks up too i agree at the 236 pick in a roto league he's fine like he was drafted immediately after daniel mengden and immediately before blake snell yeah it's hard to argue i'm fine taking a chance but yeah there aren't many pitchers in the world that i'm not fine taking a chance on in the 20th round just because there's no risk Where do you go in the head to head? When's Daniel Mengden goes. Yeah. What's Daniel Magnen goes, I'm down for pretty much anyone.
Starting point is 00:39:44 I'll pick Heath. He went in the Points League draft. He went 149th. Yeah, so I think that's good, too. I'm good with that. I would, if somebody wanted to place a points league wager on who scores more pitcher points this year, Cole Hamer's or Shohei Otani. Yeah, but that's probably a –
Starting point is 00:40:03 But that gets into, like, there's a decent chance Cole Hamelsters 200 innings, finishes relative, like Jeff Samarja a couple years ago, where he finishes at a point where he looks more useful than he ever was at any point during the seat. Right, right. It's one of those situations where it's only meaningful where the overall point finishes in leagues where nobody changes their lineup. I just want to pull up that points like draft and see where he went, and I'm getting that now. Okay, so I know where he went, but who went around Cole Hamils?
Starting point is 00:40:36 So 149th overall. One pick later, Rick Porcelo, and the pick after that was Chase Anderson. So Hamels, Porcelo, Chase Anderson, and then Kevin Gosman. I mean, that sounds like the right range for Hamels. I would rather – the one I'd want most of that group is Chase Anderson. And you took them. That was your pick. Oh, there you go.
Starting point is 00:40:57 Do you rather have – most of the Hamels? I'd rather have Gosman. You don't have to say that, Chris. We all know that you'd rather have Gosman. I mean, that's in the range of pitchers where there's like a stretch of 40-50 that could kind of go in any order. And you know who went just before that? Rich Hill. There you go.
Starting point is 00:41:15 Will we all take Rich Hill over Hamels? Yes. Heath? Like, in a points league? Yes, in a points league. I would not. Like, in 2015, Jeff Samarja threw 200 innings, had a 6-8-6-6-6-6-6-6-ststststststrike. workouts per 9.
Starting point is 00:41:37 496 ERA, a high whip, and he finished as a top 50 starting pitch. I don't, I expect Cole Hamill's probably not worth owning at all. And I would expect Cole Hamill's could be better than that, but you should expect him to. I'm not sure we should. He had a 462 fit last season. I understand that you don't generally say that last season changes everything. No, but when it's 34 years old and you've lost a bunch of velocity on your fastball and your strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:42:03 And your swinging strike rate collapse, yeah. I would not expect, I would expect improvement. I would not expect him to be anything good. Okay, so improvement would be maybe a low 4-ZRA, which is a half a run to full run better than Samarra. Maybe. Okay. Last guy is Ian Desmond. Now, he went somewhat late in drafts last year because he broke his hand during spring training,
Starting point is 00:42:27 and we knew he was going to miss time. He missed about a month. So last jury was 120th overall in our points league draft. and he was drafted 109th in categories. This year, Ian Desmond went 152nd in our points league draft. And 66th in Roto. Somebody took him 66th. So they have a, I guess that's their guy.
Starting point is 00:42:49 They like Ian Desmond as a bounceback this year. Do you guys like Ian Desmond as a bounce back? Or is he, just like O'Hamels, done? I don't want to pay assuming a bounce back like the guy who took him 66th overall. because I think more likely than not he's going to be replaced in the Rockies lineup at some point this season because that year he had with the Rangers that earned him that big contract with the Rockies everybody was kind of caught off guard by that because of some of the decline he was showing before it
Starting point is 00:43:20 but seeing as he's a guy with power and more importantly speed who's playing half his games at Corr's field there is still definitely a point in the draft He's dual eligible. Still the point in the draft where I take a flyer on that. And, you know, it would be within the first 23 rounds of a rhodo draft for sure. I just kind of hope the Rockies don't play him. This is Desmond, we're talking about, by the way, 32-year-old Ian Desmond, who, yes, does have speed.
Starting point is 00:43:48 He stole 15 bases in 95 games. He's, you know, pretty safe 20 steals guy. And he's got a lot of money left to him, so they need to get something out of him. In 2016, Ian Desmond was the number seven outfielder in points, number five in Roto. That was with a 285 average, 22 home runs, 21 steals. A terrible walk-to-strikeout ratio, but that's every year with him. And he did score 107 runs. Does it matter to you that he stole eight of his 15 bases in June?
Starting point is 00:44:19 And really, he only played 95 games, but didn't really do much otherwise with terms of steals. Not It doesn't really matter to me now It's not even fair to say Because in September I think he stole four bases Which would be like a 24th Yeah I think that's region But you know what
Starting point is 00:44:37 It's interesting what's going on with the Rockies Because I'm not sure they even really know what they have And with Ian Desmond They don't seem to know what they have with David Dahl They have Ryan McMahon Who's seemingly ready to go Hit about 350 at AAA Last year
Starting point is 00:44:53 Actually between AA and AAA Hit 3555 with a 955 with a 986 OPS. So he obviously is capable of playing first base if they wanted to go that route. Of course, they have Brendan Rogers who's not too far behind. They have these young players that they're...
Starting point is 00:45:09 They already have, you know, kind of overkill between the outfield and first base. And that's before you take into count, McMahon, it's before you take into account that they were pursuing Carlos Santana, J. Bruce, obviously missed out on both of them. But there's a chance they bring back Mark Reynolds. There's some clutter there that makes it all of them.
Starting point is 00:45:29 Rymel Tapia, I hadn't mentioned him. He's a pretty good outfield prospect. There's some clutter there that makes all of them a little worrisome. Fun fact. Do you know who drafted Ian Desmond? No. In which round? No.
Starting point is 00:45:43 Which team drafted Ian Desmond? In which draft? In the Major League Baseball game. In the Major League League, the Rule 4, the Rule 4 amateur draft. Yes. I don't know The Royals That is also incorrect
Starting point is 00:45:58 The other Kansas City I know I know I'm looking at it The Marlins No The Yankees No
Starting point is 00:46:08 Want me just tell you now Yeah tell us Come on The Expos Oh I never would have got that Probably their last draft 2004
Starting point is 00:46:15 Yeah it was their last draft I'm thinking he's maybe The last player Drafted by them Still in the majors No one else drafted by them in that draft is still in the majors. Well, there you go.
Starting point is 00:46:27 I'm going to say there's someone else. So he was drafted by the organization he came up in. What you're telling him. But it was the ex-mos. Okay. All right. Trick question. It was a trick question.
Starting point is 00:46:37 All right. Last thing, does this mean anything to you? Ian Desmond at home, 47 games at home, bat at 265 with a 331 slugging percentage and two home runs? In Coorsfield. In Colorado. I mean. Within air.
Starting point is 00:46:53 I would bet on him performing much better at home than on the road. Is he going to keep hitting ground ball 65% of the time? He's always been a really high ground ball guy, but last year was insane. Insane. And it's a small sample size, and that'll fluctuate, but I'm not very excited about Ian Desmond. All right. Are you excited about emails? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:18 Good. It's a great technology. Fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. going to experiment with voicemails on the fantasy football today podcast. And if that goes well, we'll bring it on over to fantasy baseball today. Doesn't that sound nice? Like today today? No.
Starting point is 00:47:36 Okay. I don't think we had time. What's with today today? Name that movie. What's with you today? What's with today today? Don't know it. Empire Records.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Why is everyone talking about Empire Records lately? I don't know, because it's one of the greatest 90s. I was at trivia last week, and one of the questions was an Empire Records thing, and then the next day, Heath makes an Empire Records reference. I love that movie. I love that movie, and I know that... I did not get the question right. I did not know what Rex Manning Day was from. That's the thing, that Rex Manning Day.
Starting point is 00:48:11 E.K. in our office actually knows the date, and he's always like, happy Rex Manning Day. I don't remember what the date was, but, yes. Rex Manning Day, it's great. Okay. Update. Update. Ian Desmond is not the only player left by the Expos. There are two players still in the Major League's drafted by the Expos.
Starting point is 00:48:29 They are both like Ian Desmond, right-handed hitters. Ryan Zimmerman. Incorrect. Good guess. Brandon Phillips. Brandon Phillips is correct. Better guess. The other one is a catcher slash third baseman.
Starting point is 00:48:45 Russell Martin. Russell Martin. Nice. Okay. One fact of the day. All right, it's an email from Aaron. Hey, Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris, with it being a slow off season, it seems like you could use an interesting talking point that doesn't necessarily have to do with fantasy.
Starting point is 00:49:00 And since you're in collaboration with CBS and the new season of Survivor start soon, which baseball players and or coaches do you think would make great or fun Survivor players? And who do you think would win? Some interesting ones off the bat would be Carlos Zambrano, Brian Wilson, and Alex Rodriguez. Something fun to think about. Jose Canseco has to be the obvious answer of who we'd want to see on Survivor, right? Who wants to see that? Everyone.
Starting point is 00:49:27 Nobody wants to see that. Adam, do you want to see that? Canseco is a... I have no interest in Jose Canseco. Walking reality show. But, I mean, obviously, like, I've seen every episode of Survivor. I'm a big Survivor fan. There have been...
Starting point is 00:49:40 Jeff Kent was on and did quite well. Nobody knew he was. Which tells you something about the popularity of baseball all times. Did anybody fight with anyone? No, no, he did well, and he was playing, he like tore his ACL or something in his knee on the first day and got by fine on that. But currently, current players who might do well on Survivor, I mean, he kind of just picked big personalities here, which obviously is a good selling point. Yeah, I don't know. Who's the dude who lives in his car?
Starting point is 00:50:15 Daniel Norris. Daniel Norris. Yeah. That guy. Yeah, that's obviously. Yeah. There's a lot of hunting types. Yeah, there are a lot of hunting types in baseball. I want to say...
Starting point is 00:50:25 Hunter. Madison Bungarner would be the best. Madison Bungarner. We know Madison Bungarner's not good at extreme sports. He would win it. So he would not be good on the amazing race. I think Madison Bumgarner would take to that environment very well. How much does athleticism matter?
Starting point is 00:50:44 A lot. Okay, because Rolus Chapman is a freak athlete, and he's really big. He's intimidating. I think he'd be pretty good. I don't think intimidating is necessarily good. That would make people want to get rid of you? Yeah, I don't know how it works. I've never seen Survivor.
Starting point is 00:50:58 Bum Gunner already has the hair. Like, he's been on the island for a while. Like, you have to be... Charlie Blackman. You have to be strategic. You have to be social. Oh. And I think physicality is really, you know,
Starting point is 00:51:10 third or fourth on the list of necessary skills. I'm going with D. Gordon. Dee Gordon? They've got, like, climbing things on there, right? You got to do stuff. I'm Degoran would be very good at doing stuff. All right. I think this is run its course.
Starting point is 00:51:24 That was fun. Thank you. Baseball question. Durham, Jason, I can keep three of the following five. Goldschmidt, Altuve, Bryant, Bellinger, and Sale. Goldschmidt, Altuva, Bryant, Bellinger, and sales. The first three, right? Yep.
Starting point is 00:51:41 Goldschmidt Outtube. I might keep sale over Bryant, actually. All right. And then I was offered a first, second, and third. third round pick for Goldschmidt and sale, should I take it? So then you're looking at a first, second, and third pick for Altuve, Bryant, and Bellinger. No, no, plus Altuve, Brian, and Bellinger. What?
Starting point is 00:52:01 You said four Altuvee Bryant. So it would be, you'd keep Altube, Brian, and Bellinger, and you'd have a first second and third round pick. But a first second and third round pick in this format are probably not all that useful. Like, they're, well, they're like fifth pick, fifth, sixth, seventh. Yeah, what do you think? So you're losing elite upside, and I don't think that's worth doing. I think I would do it, because if there's 36 players kept, then this is basically a fourth, fifth, and sixth. And Altuve is worth a first.
Starting point is 00:52:38 Bryant's worth a second. Bellinger's probably worth a third. I think I'm okay with it. So a question for you about keepers, right? I don't play in any baseball keeper leagues. You keep three players. Everybody keeps three players. But as you can see with Jason's team, for example, Goldschmidt-A-Brient, if he keeps those three, he'd be throwing back Bellinger and Sale.
Starting point is 00:52:59 Right. If he keeps sale, he'd be throwing back Brian and Bellinger. So there are going to be some players that are first or second round caliber that are thrown back. It's not just as simple as you start in the fourth round. Like the 36 best players are not necessarily. It's probably more like you're starting in the third round. With so few players being kept, I think you keep your best players. and don't worry so much about age or upside.
Starting point is 00:53:21 There is so much turnover in a league where every team is only keeping three players. And like, Goldschmidt-Altoe, for sure. I could be talked into Sale over Bryant just because, you know, the ace is a dying breed in fantasy and sale is about as reliable among that top four as any of the top four. So I might keep Sale over Bryant.
Starting point is 00:53:45 Okay, next question is from Stephen. Ten Team Points League. 10 starts max per week for starting pitchers. I can keep five. So he's keeping Trey Turner, Robbie Ray, and Luis Severino. Who are his next two? And there's price involved with this too. So those aren't necessarily his best players, but the prices.
Starting point is 00:54:05 Keep two. DeGrom for 45. Paxton for four. Jansen for 16. Garrett Richards for one. LeMette, $5. Jose Ramirez 16
Starting point is 00:54:19 Bregman 10 Reamuto 3 And Ramirez Hold on Before you answer Because I like to Read it again Eliminate
Starting point is 00:54:28 Who we can we eliminate Degram Degram Lebet Richards Rehmuto So you're keeping Two of Paxton
Starting point is 00:54:38 For four Jansen for 16 Jose Ramirez for 16 Or Alex And Alex Breggman for 10 And I'm going Paxton and Ramirez I think they're the two best players available.
Starting point is 00:54:50 Well, I mean, I'd put Bregman over Paxton, but there's a $6 difference, and it seems like what I'm gathering from the information he's provided us, pitching is really valued in this league. So I could see going Ramirez and Paxton and leaving Breckman out. I would probably go Ramirez and Paxton, if only because Breggman's shortstop eligibility is kind of nullified by the fact you're keeping Tray Turner as a shortstop. It's true.
Starting point is 00:55:16 Also, Stephen says, go Padres. Kevin says go White Sox, and Kevin is in a 10-team four-keeper head-to-head Categories League. Keepers are simply picks one through four. Right now he is Judge, Machado, Cindergarde, and maybe Severino. But what are your thoughts on trading Judge for Chris Sale and D. Gordon? Categories League. So the thing is, it's not just Judge. You're trading Judge and Severino for Sale and Gordon.
Starting point is 00:55:47 He can't keep Severino. Did Adam miss something? No, no, no, because you can't keep Severino. Right, okay. So you're effectively keeping judge, you're trading judge and Severino for sale and Gordon. Look, I think sales is better than Judge. So I would do it just to keep sale and forget keeping D. Gordon because I'd rather keep Louis Severino. I could definitely.
Starting point is 00:56:09 I mean, yes, I'd make the trade and then decide between Gordon and Severino as your last keeper, absolutely. Would you rather keep Severino or Sindregard? I'd rather keep Severino In a points league I'd rather keep Severino I might go with Center Guard in this category's form This does bring up an interesting thing In one of the leagues where I commission
Starting point is 00:56:30 If you make an off-season trade You have to keep every player that you trade for What do you guys think of that rule? Because otherwise you're trading guys If it's a keeper league You're trading guys who don't have value Right, right, it's good point I think if you make a trade
Starting point is 00:56:46 for a player in the off season. And I allow trades at any point in the off season. But if you make a trade for a player during the off season, you have to keep them. It doesn't matter what happens after that. Who else you have to drop? So you have to keep that way. What is it you're trying to prevent? That's what I'm trying to get out. I'm trying to prevent guys getting traded
Starting point is 00:57:03 who have value, but don't have value to the team traded to them. Like D. Gordon in this case. Yeah, like D. Gordon. If you're not going to keep him, he shouldn't be involved in the trade. So that they can't just trade D. again, you're saying?
Starting point is 00:57:18 Well, I mean, yeah, no, you can trade D. Gordon. But if he's on your, if you trade for a player who's on your roster, you have to keep. That player has to be kept. It's something for Scott to consider. Yeah, I'm just, I'm having trouble figuring out. Why do you need to prevent that? Why should you allow a player to be traded if they're not going to be kept? That player didn't have any value.
Starting point is 00:57:40 What's the negative impact of that player being traded where he's not going to be kept? you're making trades that look more fair than they end up being. Right. Like, I'll give you these three guys. You give me one. And then actually at the end of the day... You only end up keeping one of those guys. Right, and it's a one-for-one trade.
Starting point is 00:58:01 If they're good enough to keep, and you're not... Then you're saying you allow owners to flip them to somebody else. Right, yeah, you can do that, but that player has to be kept by someone. Yeah, his final... And if you don't want to keep them, you have to find a trade. I'm not going to be able to...
Starting point is 00:58:18 to figure it out on the spot here sorry i'm i'm sure that i'm sure there's a good reason for it i'm just having trouble um seeing it well scott's frustration by it will only be matched by the fact that in the dynasty league that scott commissions that we're all but adam in nando proposed a rule change during the podcast and it has been second and and thirded already oh really what is it so i'm sure and scott i haven't seen that hates the idea of the rule change that's been proposed so what is it what is what is it what is it i need it out of season trading uh he would like to open up offseason trading oh that's i don't know that's i don't know It's not going to happen.
Starting point is 00:58:48 It's the whole reason I started my own Dynasty League because I didn't want to allow off-season training. When does trading start? After the auction, after teams have been, after roster spots have all been filled for the new season. But, Scott, your whole league wants it. It's not what I want. This is not about the good of the league. It's the 24-team league built for scouts. It's about what league I wanted to have.
Starting point is 00:59:13 Because what I noticed happening in my other dynasty leagues was some, you guys, get these like serial traders and they like take on all these players that they obviously don't have the ability to keep because they're too expensive or whatever. But I'll give you these prospects for these great players who are going to help me right now cruise to a championship. And then as soon as the offseason hits, you're like, okay, well, that's fine. That guy bought a championship. But now he's going to be screwed next season.
Starting point is 00:59:40 No, as soon as the offseason hits, he goes and trades all those players again for prospects. And it's just this endless cycle of accumulating and disseminating. and winning championships over and over again. And it just benefits the cereal traders out there. I didn't like it. All right. Last thing. Cereal Trader, I will give you Captain Crunch, Cookie Crisp, and Raisin Brand for one box of Golden Gramps.
Starting point is 01:00:08 Pass. That's a terrible trade on all sides. Everybody loses. What are the golden grams are the golden standard of cereal. They are the best cereal. What do you? you guys remember the mascot of cookie crisp being? I don't remember.
Starting point is 01:00:25 This is like a generational thing. Is he a cookie? I remember a, a, I believe he was a dog burglar. Oh yeah. There was a burglar and a dog. What I thought it was a dog who was a burglar. Yeah, all of those cereals are, you've heard the saying. Yeah, you're right.
Starting point is 01:00:40 Your Cheerios. And if somebody peed in your bowl of one of those cereals, nobody cared. But I believe there was a, there was a wizard also. I've got a cookie walk. All right. This is a task for Google Images. We'll talk to you next week on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Thanks for listening.
Starting point is 01:00:56 Enjoy the weekend. See you later.

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