Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/17: Players Heath Likes; More on the Astros (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 17, 2020

Heath Cummings makes his return to the podcast for 2020 and we welcome him back with a rundown of his favorite players to target, including Blake Snell and Jesus Luzardo. Plus, we talk about whether the Astros scandal has created value for Fantasy players and run through your emails, including how to handle picks in the middle of the first round, Shohei Ohtani’s value, and more.  To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. What a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Making his triumphant return to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast, we've got Heath Cummings here joining Chris Howard and Scott White on Friday, January 17th.

And we're going to start Heath. I mean, we can start with pleasantries. How are you doing? Fine. Gosh. That's the first thing he says after months away is a very disinterested fine. I guess we'd have it in no other way, right? Right. Yeah, I'm doing well. Things are going okay. I've spent the last, I don't know, I've been on this podcast.

I haven't been on really very many podcasts at all. The last couple of weeks just in a cave, baseball knowledge, just getting ready for the 2020 season. Good, good, just surrounded by baseballs, absorbing their energy. That's good. We're going to start off today's podcast with Heath making his triumphant return, one hitter. We're going to go through some players that Heath likes a little later, but right now, start off the podcast. Heath, give me one pitcher and one hitter that you like for 2020.

I'll stay on brand and go with former Royal Mike Mastakis. You can't be anything but on. brand. Starting pitcher, Jesus Lazzardo. I think I was just a year too early on Lazzardo last year. He's still an incredible prospect that was dominant in the 12 major league

innings he threw last year. He's not going to throw 180 innings this year. Of course not. The current ADP I see right now is in the 12th round. And I do think there's a possibility he gives you 120 innings of like near ace level starter stuff.

And I would like to have that on roster in 12th year Mike Mastakis you have to love the landing spot for him in Cincinnati almost as good as where he was in Milwaukee he is one of 15 players with at least 100 home runs over the last three seasons he's the only one who's second base eligible going into this season and he's one of only three that are outside of the top one hundred and a d p right now I look at Mustakis and like this is going to get laughed at we'll get this out of the way but you look at Mastakis over the last three years and Manny Machado over the last three years.

On a per game basis, I'm pretty sure Mastakis has actually been better. They've been pretty similar over the course of three years. And Machado's was worse last year. So I think there's a chance that he should be drafted more like Machado than where he is. He was the number 11 second baseman in Roto leagues last year and pulling up Scott's ranking. Scott, you wouldn't have to know where you have him ranked off the top of your head, would you? At third base or second? At third base, he's barely inside the top 20,

which is partly just the condition of third base. And second base, I think, sure, is in my top 12. But, yeah, I mean, I don't, it doesn't sound like I'm as high on him as Heath is. I think he's, you know, a pretty safe contributor, but not really a standout in an environment where there's so much power hitting to be had because he doesn't really bring much to the table of them power hitting.

Even for having a low strikeout rate, he's such an extreme fly ball hitter that it doesn't translate too much in the way of batting average. So he's kind of a mid-tier guy for me, Mustakis. The Mottado comparison is interesting because Mottado is still being drafted several rounds ahead of where Mustakis is, about 50 picks overall on Fantasy Pros ADP right now. It's early, but Machado really hasn't slid as much as, uh, his production since leaving Camden Yards probably deserves. There's still a lot of face value there.

There's a lot of hoping that he can get back to that level. I'm not 100% sure he will. I don't think there's a very good chance I'll draft any Mani Machado this season. I'm trying to verify he's claim that Mustakis has been better on a per game basis over the past three years. And I am pretty sure that's not true because Mustak is. Musazas was better than him last year, but the previous two years,

Machado was significantly better in terms of head-to-head points per game. Yeah, I just see, I mean, he's played, what, 30 more games? They had the same number of home runs. He has 20 more RBI. They've got a similar OPS. So I wasn't looking at fantasy points,

but they have been relatively similar when you total up the last three years. That's fair. I think that says to me more about Machas. than Mustakus. Another second baseman that I look at 80, like

on fantasy pros, Mike Mastakis is not listed at second base. He would be the 15th second baseman off the board on that side by ADP, on average ADP. I'd rather have Mike Mustakis than DJ LaMahue this year. I think I'd rather have

LaMahue, but I would imagine LeMayhew being four or five rounds earlier than him. It's more likely I'll have Mastakis. I'm probably not going to be drafting Lamehue at his price either. Well, I don't know. I mean, we're kind of getting... We're getting off track a little bit.

We're getting off track a little bit here. But Lameh is going to be a contentious player, obviously a guy in his 30s who goes on to have a career season. You know, that's going to raise some eyebrows. But it was, you know, second round production, basically from Lamehue last year and his ADP is like sixth round. To me, that's a pretty significant discount, especially since I buy... you know, numbers like ex-Woba, XBA, they support what LeMayhew did last year. The track record, I understand, doesn't.

But to me, that's an extreme enough discount for a guy who's shown MVP potential, you know, just last year. He probably had a buzzer in his jersey. And then Hazers Lozardo, just go over him real quick. One of the top prospects in baseball, he's Scott White's number three prospect. You can find that on CBS Sports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. number three prospect heading into the

into the 2020 season. He's a 22 year old who's gotten up to the majors dealt with. It was all shoulder issues last year, right? I think it was a pretty major shoulder issue. They were very, very cautious with it and then just brought him back for the end of the year. I think he struck it.

He's got 21 in like 12 innings or something? 16 strikeouts in 12 innings, 16 strikeouts on 46 batters faced. That's a very healthy number, only 3.1. only five hits allowed in those 12 innings over six appearances. He's thrown and he's still, this will be his age 22 season. Yeah. We're 195 innings in the minor leagues, 271, 253 ERA, 104 whip, and 234 strikeouts on 195

innings. I mean, he could be, if you stay as healthy, he could be, we'd talk about him in a couple years, one of the top 10 starting pitchers in baseball. Yeah. Yeah. I have a hard time finding anything negative to say about Jesus Luzardo's skill set. And obviously he appears more than ready for a major league opportunity. It's interesting to me that he, in traditional prospect rankings, you know, Chris, you said I have him third overall.

That obviously makes him the top pitcher in my prospect rankings. But in traditional rankings, he's usually only like third or fourth among pitchers. And, you know, the ones he's ranked behind are great as well. but a guy who already has a rotation spot and just no discernible flaws that I can see. Yeah, I'm going to have a lot of shares of Lazzardo, too, I think. The flawless Jesus Lazzardo. And the A's actually could have a very interesting starting pitching staff. You know, two of the top left-handed pitching prospects in baseball in Jesus Lazzardo and A.J. Puck likely.

I don't know if Puck's going to be in the rotation to start the season, but he was another guy who was coming back from Tommy John surgery last season, but did appear in the majors and showed very interesting stuff. He appears to have the inside track. Yeah, and he has huge strikeout potential, just not as refined as Luzardo. He's going to struggle with walks. I'm just trying to draft A's pitchers and Mariners hitters after early research.

Good. Anytime, I mean, if you can. just play like April of last year's Mariners hitters? You'd win every league. Yep. All right. Speaking of the American League West, I don't know if you guys have heard. I know you talked about it a little bit on Wednesday's podcast, but the Houston Astros aren't broiled in

quite a scandal. And it seemed to, you know, with Jeff Luno and and AJ Hinch getting fired earlier in the week, it seemed like things might have been dying down and then Twitter exploded yesterday with uh... With all kinds of sort of strange allegations from, you know, spurious places and, you know, a lot of Microsoft paint. But basically the, the crux of it is the asteros have now been accused of using electronic buzzers, uh, during, uh, specifically the 2017 season. It seems like most of the accusations against them revolve around that.

And obviously we've already seen Carla. was Beltran, stepped down as the Mets manager yesterday. Sounds like it was a, he was, the spin is that he was pushing to be let go to walk away. And the Mets were kind of trying to hold on to him. Make of that what you will.

But this is, it's one of the biggest scandals baseball scene. It's certainly the biggest scandals baseball scene since the steroid era of the late 90s and early 2000s. And I think we're starting to see the possibility of the fantasy industry starting to downgrade. The Astros a little bit as a result. And Scott, you wrote about this on CBSSports.com Thursday.

Right. And the last podcast earlier this week, Adam, Matt Snyder, and I talked about it. And this was before the latest allegation. And I mean, this was insanity what happened on Twitter yesterday. The baseball Twitter world collectively lost its mind. They were buying into every conspiracy theory being thrown out there. The buzzer accusation, it, like, this isn't the first time it was brought up. I mean, that's, that's a rumor that's

floated around for a while now. But the person who tweeted it out that really set Twitter off yesterday was the supposed niece of Carlos Beltron. I've seen from reporters that the Beltron family Yeah, they deny. They deny she's a niece. Gary Sheffield Jr. was tweeting that that's a burner account for a former player. So nobody really knows who this person is that was tweeting this. She claimed to have pictures of this, but she also said she was saving them for a rainy day.

Scott Brocious's son also got involved with some allegations, but we won't go into that. But it was a banner day for the supposed offspring. and relations of baseball players from our childhood. There were a couple of images in particular that were really feeding the conspiracy theories here. One was, you know, clearly ridiculous. It was Josh Reddick in an interview after the celebration. There was a piece of what looked like gold tape stuck to his shoulder

and it was folded away that people were claiming there was a wire underneath it. But it was, you know, you see a side by side by side. side shot of the confetti falling from that celebration. It's clearly just a piece of confetti. So that one that's what they want you to think, Scott. That's what they want you to think. Why do you think

they chose that specific color for the confetti? The more, because it's an astros color. The more concerning one is that Jose Altuve, his refusal to have his jersey ripped off after a walk off home run, supposedly because he was

shy. I love that that's the I love that that's the the explanation. Scott Boris comes out and says there was nothing going on. He just doesn't like being shirtless in public. He's just, he's a shy, mild manner. I believe that was the term, shy and mild mannered.

And he doesn't like to have his jersey taken off. Yeah, well, and he got in trouble with his wife last time or something. I don't know. But like, to me, that's pretty suspicious. But at the same time, the investigation that already. happened covered wearable electronic devices they looked into that and found no evidence of that the absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence that well that's true but I think the only way anybody's getting suspended out of this

is if a new investigation is opened and I think for a new investigation to open there would have to be a whistleblower on the level of Mike fires and not Carlos Beltron's supposed niece so I I'm thinking nothing happens from this, unless somebody else comes forward. But based on what we've heard so far, it's just a lot of, a lot of commotion. And my stance from the other day that there's really no reason to downgrade the upper level players, that still holds. I need Heath's thoughts, because I know Heath is a little more conspiracy-minded than Scott. Do you think the Astros are putting something in the water that's making their hitters better?

I think the Astros are probably the biggest cheaters in baseball, but make no mistake, all teams in baseball are cheaters. I don't, like, this is, this whole thing hasn't moved me quite as much as it seems to have moved Twitter or lots of baseball purists, because we've done this for the entirety of baseball. There's been cheating in a variety of different ways. It's part of the game. It should not, like everyone's been stealing signs.

I think that's extraordinary. extraordinarily unfair. There is no way the Baltimore Orioles are cheating. Okay, maybe the Orioles are not cheating, but you know what I mean? Like, you just hasn't really bothered to be that much. I would say that like, if you look at what happened to Jose Batiste after they finally got rid of the man in white waving the towel in Toronto, you might have to consider how, what a, I'm a little bit worried that the Astros hitters won't be quite as good. So here's, here's where the actual discussion works for fantasy.

You know, we're going to be drafting these guys over the next couple of months. And this is, this was the number three offense and runs scored in the American League last season, although I think once you account for the fact that, you know, George Springer and Carlos Carran and some other guys miss a significant amount of time, you know, I don't think anybody would look at you askance if you said this was the best offense in baseball last season. I believe they had six hitters with an OPS over 875. in their everyday lineup, maybe seven now that I'm looking at it.

This was an absurdly stacked team. And for fantasy, they're going to be really important. I was at the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association conference in Vegas over the last couple of days. And I took part in a draft that's still going on, but we're through 15 rounds. And I end up drafting four Astros hitters in my first 15 picks. And it just kind of felt like all of them at the point that I was. was sitting at just felt like good values.

It got Alex Bregman in the first round with a 10th overall pick in a 14 team league, George Springer 47th overall, Carlos Correa at 94th. And then I grabbed Kyle Tucker with my 15th round pick at 219 overall. And it just feels like, you know, especially in the immediate aftermath, for those of you who might have early drafts or if you're playing on NFBC, you know, there might be some value with the Astros. Now here's some of the other notable Astros and where they were drafted. at Jose Altuva at 23.

Jordan Alvarez at 54. Important to remember, he's going to be a utility or DH only player, I think, in most leagues. Michael Brantley at 114 and Yulee Gareal at 128. And it's just going through all of those.

Taking them on face value, what they did last season, all of those pretty much feel like good values. Like Alex Bramon, even at 10, like, it's hard to be a value at 10, but I actually went through,

at least for the five, five biggest astros hitters, Altuve, Bregman, I'm not listing them off in order here, but Bregman, Altovay, Jordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, and George Springer from that draft.

They all went lower than early ADP. I think the biggest was Jordan Alvarez went 16 spots lower than early ADP. And this is a draft conducted by the most level-headed among us, supposedly, right?

Yeah. People in fantasy baseball analysis. And so they universally dropped. And that was before even the Twitter storm of yesterday with all the buzzer talk. So I think the average person, just the just the just the way people are responding to this emotionally, they are not going to like the taste in their mouth that they get from drafting Astros players. And you could get great values for them. For some of those hitters, you took three of the five hitters I just listed, right, Chris?

So we don't even know how what kind of bleeding there would have been. You kind of put a stop to the bleeding. So we didn't even get a chance to see how it would fully play out, you know? And it's worth noting like there are, at least for some of them, practical reasons why they might have fallen. Like Carlos Correa just has not been able to stay healthy. He doesn't run anymore. So, you know, you really do need him to hit really, really well, especially given those injury concerns, George Springer. coming off a massive breakout season,

but also, you know, I think, did he even play 120 games last season? He had 39 homers in like 110 games? I thought he got to 120, but I'll check real quick. But he's another guy who's missed a significant amount of time. You know, Jose Altuve probably not going to steal bases like we've seen in the past. So he's another guy who the bat need to stick. And if the super juiced fun ball isn't quite there anymore,

maybe the power comes back down to Earth. Jordan Alvarez, one year wonder, DH only. Like, you can, you can come up with explanations for, for each guy falling a little bit, but, but this was,

this was falling compared to those. Yeah, those, those concerns were already baked in from early mock drafts. Heath, where are you on these guys? Sounds like I'm a little cautious about the Astros being worse than they were last year and also at the same time not as cautious as what ADP is going to suggest.

Okay. That's fair. Yeah. And Scott, you basically wrote that you're not discounting them at all. Yeah, I mean, if we're going to trust in MLB's findings, then supposedly the sign stealing stopped at some point in the 2018 season because they deemed it to be no longer effective. And I mean, it kind of reminds me of what we've seen from the PED users over the years basically since the testing and the suspensions have started for that in all but a few exceptions. It's not like they were magically changed after they came back from the PED suspension. You know, it's not like they were worse in a notable way.

In fact, a lot of guys you may not even remember had PED suspensions because they've gone on to have the best years of their careers since then, Nelson Cruz, Yasmani Grant. Starling Marte. Legitimately did forget Gizmani Grandal was suspended. But also, Mike Fires was on the Astros in

2016 and 2017. And everybody was like, yeah, cool, we were doing it then. But we stopped it in the year after he left. Yeah, no, I mean, the investigation could have missed things. I think that's certainly plausible. Well, yeah, I mean, but the point I was building up to is,

in a game with as many variables as baseball has and as many things that can go wrong and even with the system itself that all the things that could go wrong like how much of an advantage does the cheating give you I think pitch by pitch at bat by a bat you could definitely detect it and in a series that went to seven games

like against the Dodgers it may have very well changed the outcome but I think over 162 games on an individual level you're just not going to notice that big of a difference and like the only player whose stats stand out from that 2017 season is like, whoa, what was going on there

is Marwin Gonzalez. Like, you know, everybody's been if anything, as good or better since then, better just because, you know,

they were young back then and they've gotten more experience, gotten better. I think it's specifically Alex Bregman. Gotten better. And as Matt Snyder pointed out, even if you're focusing on last year, like the home away splits for these players.

Sure, some players were better at home than away. Some players were better away than at home. There's not really like a clear, there's a clear reason to believe that we're going to see a significant drop off in production. All right. Let's move on to some news and notes. We'll also get to a bunch of your emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com a little later on the show.

but as always fantasy baseball at cbsi.com if you want us to read your email on the show and this is a good time of the year to send in your emails because the volume is a little lower and you're more likely to get a response on the air. So send them in. We've got some news and notes. Nothing really major has happened over the last couple of days

outside of everybody's trying to let the sign stealing. But you guys covered the biggest stuff in the most recent podcast. But this signing I'm interested in. Drew Smiley signed with the Giants on a one-year contract. Drew Smiley was absolutely awful last season, but the biggest issue for him, aside from staying healthy, which has been an issue his entire career, he was, he really struggled with home runs 2.53 per 9, but actually had a pretty healthy strikeout rate. So, you know, playing in San Francisco, he could be someone who emerges as, you know, every year there's, there's one or two guys on the

giants who emerge as a useful fantasy option. I think he could be it, but, you know, he might might also be someone you can get with your last round pick in an NL only draft, so not someone you really need to worry about too much in mixed leagues until he shows it. Any interest in him? Or am I alone on that? It's, it's been a long time since I've cared about Drew Smiley, and he's bounced around a lot since then.

I have almost no interest. Fair, fair. And also worth noting the Giants aren't moving the fences in, uh, in Oracle Park. I believe mostly in center and, uh, right center right right and right center yeah so it could make uh their home field advantage for

pitchers go away a little more although you know you've still got other environmental factors it's very windy there i would still think it plays like a pitchers park you're not going to see a giant change i would assume so but local park and marlins park were the two most extreme pitchers parks and they're both moving in the fences and this is the second time the marlins are moving the fence yeah And I think they're doing it all the way around, right? I think so. So they'll both probably still be pitchers parks,

but hopefully not the outliers they once were. Yep. Some of the other small news and notes, Brave signed a Danny Hatcher at one-year contract. The Phillies outright at Odubo Herrera to AAA. He was designated for assignment. I think it's likely we've seen the last of Odebo-Herara with the Phillies.

It doesn't seem like they want him around, but nobody claimed him. So I'm not sure there's going to be a role for him in 2020. And then Ryan Zimmerman expects to return to the Nationals at some point. But like I said, not too much news over the last few days worth going over. So let's get back to the players Heath likes. And we got two of them earlier, Mike Mustakis and Jesus Lazzardo.

Who else do you like Heath? Let's get another couple of hitters out here. It turns out that I like outfielders available late. I'm not sure I'm going to take any outfielders in the first 10 rounds because there's, I could have made a list of 10 guys that are available after the first 12 rounds that I'd have been fine with at starting outfielders. Starting with Mitch Hanager, whose current ADP is 178. That's the end of the 15th round in a 12-team league. He was bad last year.

He was hurt last year. He was bad in an uncharacteristic way. I still expect him to be the best hitter on the Mariners and hit in the middle of the order and probably be a top 30 outfielder, top 35 outfielder, depending on how many games he plays. and that should not be available in the end of the 15th round. Yeah, Mitch Hanager coming off a season where he played 63 games, hit 15 homers, but had just a 220 batting average, struck out a lot more than we've ever seen from him,

81 times in 63 games. This is a guy who in the first three, you know, first three partial seasons at least, had never struck out more than once per game. So that was a big drop-off for him. And he was someone who was, you know, being drafted as a top 15 outfielder this time last year. So he's falling off.

quite a bit in the eyes of the industry being drafted in early ADP as the 46th outfielder right now right around 180 overall. Scott, how do you feel about Mitch Hanigar? I'm fine with him where he's going. I can certainly see a bounce back. You know, he missed so much time because of his health issue that we don't need to get into, but I don't think it's going to affect him anymore. What was the health issue? Well, we weren't going to get into it, but if we must,

It was a ruptured testicle. That's right. Yeah. Yeah. So anyway. No fun. I think he's going to be a brave and not a mariner. And you'll like it more?

I just want to put that in there, but I didn't know where I was going with it. I think they're going to trade for Hanager and Kyle Seeger. That's my bold prediction, if I may make one here on January 17th. You are not an Austin Riley fan, I guess. I just don't think he's red. You're still smarting about how mad everyone was when you said to sell high on him. Well, no, I mean, he made me look good in the end, right? But you're still holding it against him because everyone was so many of you.

What about another outfielder you like in that same range? Yeah, right in that same range. It's Andrew McCutcheon, whose average draft position is 210th. And I understand as an ageist myself, why people would be concerned about Andrew McCutcheon at 33 years old coming off of an injury year. But you look at what he was doing, he's going to lead off for the Phillies. They're going to be one of the best offenses in baseball. If he plays 150 games, he's going to score 100 runs. He's going to hit 25 home runs.

I just think Andrew McCutcheon is going to be a very solid starting outfielder in any format and probably a good starting outfielder in points formats. Yeah, paired in 59 games last season before tearing his ACL, hit 256, and that's where he's been three of the last four seasons. It's not quite a Chris Davis level of consistency, 256, 279, 255, 256. So you can feel fairly confident that at this point in his career, Andrew McCutcheon is not going to help you in batting average.

But before last season, when he had 10 homers in 59 games, he had hit at least 20 homers in every season since 2010. He was well on his way last year. And like you said, he's going to score a lot of runs in that line. And he strikes me as a points league specialist at this stage of his career. Obviously doesn't run anymore. It doesn't look like he's helping batting average. anymore gets on base a lot so you know as long as he stays healthy um i think i think it's

similar in terms of risk for reward to like a shin su chew who seems to be underrated every year maybe andrew mccutcheon's now at that point in his career does that seem reasonable heath i think the difference i would say is i expect that andrew mccutcheon is going to score more runs, have more runs produced than Shinsuchu. And, like, I know that he was hurt last year, but before that, he had played 153 games in, like, nine of his last 10 seasons. So I feel a little more confident in Andrew McCutcheon being there for me all season. So a rich man Shinsu, sure.

I'm going to tee you guys up on Heath's next pitcher. and then I'm going to go stand up and try to turn the light on because I'm in the podcast studio in our Midtown office in New York City and I guess the lights are motion activated and so they just went out. I'm not moving enough but I did just stand up and wave and it didn't turn on but there are people outside and there's a window so I don't want to just keep waving until it turns on.

So I'm going to get up and you guys can talk about Heath's next player he likes who is starting pitcher Blake Snell. Yeah. that I like Blake Snell. I think, seem to remember last year that he was a consensus, like, top eight or nine starting pitcher. I had him a little bit higher around five. He had finished the year before at, what, number three or number four?

And he got hurt last year. He wasn't quite as good. He was almost as unlucky as he was lucky the year before. And now he's not being drafted as a top 10 starting pitcher. He is behind guys like Jack Flaherty and Shane Bieber, who I don't want to say anything bad about Jack Flaherty or Shane Bieber, but there is no way on earth I would draft either of them over Blake Snell. It really comes down to durability.

I definitely would take them over Snell. I mean, they're both proven 200 innings guys. Even in a Cy Young season, Snell had issues pitching. He didn't go deep into games. Yeah, he didn't go deep into games, which made it kind of surprising. He won as many games as he did, I'm sure. if he didn't have that sub 2ERA. And he shouldn't have had a sub 2ERA.

I mean, obviously that was the good luck Heath was referring to that he had that year. It should have been closer to three. That he wouldn't have won those 21 games, and then we would have seen that season in a very different light. Flaherty and especially Bieber, I mean, Piper was going seven, eight innings consistently.

Snell, I just don't, assuming, assuming the injury is you know let's assume he stays healthy let's give him a pass for what he was deal it was like a foot issue right no it was a it was an elbow issue but it wasn't like a structural issue he had loose bodies and was dealing with discomfort in the middle

of the seat okay okay but it wasn't let's just assume he stays healthy when he was healthy last year he was rarely going six innings and even in the Sy Young season like I said he was rarely going seven so I mean he's just not handling that ace workload I think inning

for inning. He is going to be an ace, but there are enough that I feel more confident are going to give you that kind of workload that I'm fine pushing them out of my top 15. Yeah, I will say, you know, in that draft that I did the other day, he went as the number 11 pitcher off the board behind, right behind Shane Beaver, three picks, 35th overall. But he went behind Luis Castillo also. And I think that's an interesting one because a lot of the concerns that you just laid out for Blake Snell have also been there for Luis Castillo. He's not somewhat. Yeah, he averaged less than five than six innings per start last season.

He was well below that in 2018. You know, he made 30. 190.2. I mean, six innings per start is a high average. Sure, but Blake Snell's 2018. He made 31 starts and went 180 innings. Last year, Luis Castillo went 190 innings in 32 starts. So basically he averaged, he had one more start and four more innings.

on that pace. So it's basically the same thing. And then, you know, Castillo's 2018, he had 170 innings and 31, so way fewer innings. He's had similar issues with his ERA that Blake Snell did last year, but he's never had that elite season.

So I would much rather take Blake Snell coming off of the disappointing season. I think what really, like, if Luis Castillo can get the walks under control and they were a lot better in the second half, then he basically dominates in all the facets you want a pitcher to dominate in. Swinging strike rate last year. He was top five.

But so does Blake's. I think he was second. Yeah, no, I mean, Blake Smell misses. He had the highest swing strike rate. What? I think he had the highest swinging strike rate among starters. Well, he didn't qualify, so it would take some cross-referencing. But it was very high.

It was higher than Kestu. I was just referring among qualifiers. Yeah, I mean, Blake Snell is the better bat. But Luis Castillo is still an excellent top of the line bat misser and he's also Top of the line in terms of getting ground balls which of course means avoiding home runs and He was yeah, I mean I I think he's he just strikes me a safer as Blake's now than Blake's now even if Blake's now I would be willing to say he has more upside because Diost strikes me as safer Luis Castillo is my new Jose Barrios this year where I just feel like everybody is treating him like

something that he's never been because we see these flashes where he looks so good. And then we just ignore the bad. Sure, but Blake's now had a 17.7% swinging strike rate. Like Blake's now, both most of the peripherals last season, especially when you adjust for the different contexts that they were pitching in, most of the peripheral suggests he was basically as good as he was in 2018 when, you know, I wasn't drafting Blake Snow at this time last year because I thought he was being overdrafted coming off the career season. But now coming off a down season, I'm with Heath.

I think he's a great value of 39th overall. Speaking of guys that you didn't like that I did like last year and now you're with me and you just talked about him, Jose Barrios, I noticed like his ADP is like 27th the month starting pitchers. I think he finished 18th last year, which was a little bit higher than I had him ranked. Like he's a good value now, right? He, it's so tough to, like, he's lost. the nobody really looks at him as the upside guy anymore.

He's kind of settled in as like a low strikeout, dependable innings eater guy, which wasn't what people thought he was going to become, although to toot my own horn, it was what the evidence always suggested was his most likely outcome. But now we've got multiple seasons of him just being kind of a pretty good strikeout guy, but not at all elite,

a pretty good ERA guy, but not at all elite, with peripheral to back at up. last year than two years ago. He had a better ERA. He had a much worse extant. He had 432 exit because he's just not a bat misser. And he's not a bat misser. He's a very good control pitcher,

but he's not like he's a guy who's going to be great at preventing home runs. So it's mostly about eating innings at this point for Jose Berrios. And I think part of it too is just there are a lot more high-end pitchers. There appear to be a lot more high-in pitchers now than there was at this time last year. There is no shortage of aces in the player pool heading into 2020.

It's just when the aces are gone. There's not much of anything left. So you have to get your share of them. I think it's, I would like to get a time machine, which first off, who wouldn't? And have the 2016 Scott White argue 2020 Scott White's. with Jose Barrios versus Luis Castillo. And I think

2016 Scott White would be arguing for Jose Barrios because he's still... But I have more evidence now. And the evidence clearly favors Castillo now. Based on their most recent two seasons. Now we're getting into all kinds of time dilations here. No.

You don't think last year Scott White would be able to look at this year's evidence and come to the conclusion. conclusion that this year's that way he's saying he's saying that you would have given Jose you would have given Jose Burrios more of an edge because of the innings that the fact that he's proven to be an innings eater I mean and I agree with that he only had 10 more innings than Castillo last year and the same number of starts that's not nothing but it's not enough when all the other evidence so strongly supports Castillo to

decide with barrios I think they're fairly close but I think he Heath and I are going to disagree more about his next starting pitcher who falls maybe 20 picks after Blake Snell and ADP and I feel like that's a bit of a reach. Heath, who is it? It's Chris Paddock and I think I was the anti-Christpatic guy coming into last year. And he had a similar season to what I expected. Very good on a per inning basis, but he only threw 140 innings. So it was tough to have too much of an impact. But I, like, the innings concerns that I had coming into last year were largely because the guy has never thrown more than 90 innings in a season. Those innings concerns are a lot different when it's the guy's never thrown more than 140 innings in a season.

Sure. And he threw those 140 innings and 26 starts. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think he could throw 180 this year. 180 wouldn't even be that big of a percentage increase. Yeah, I mean, he would have to go a little deeper in games and make 32 starts. Right. Yeah, I think his pace was like 170 something. Yeah.

And I wouldn't be surprised if he goes a little bit deeper into games. So I expect him to be a top 20 starting pitcher this year. Great control. He misses bats. And he's going to be able to throw more innings this year. I think I have him around 20. If he may be just outside of it, like 22nd or something like that. I think overall just I mean just the innings increase is going to be better and he has ace upside he's kind of at the tail end of the ace class of pitchers and there are some other like borderline aces after him but I think the like really trustworthy I feel confident is this guy with this guy is my number one if I draft him is that I think paddock rounds out that group for me and the reason I put him at the back end of it is it just seems like there's more that can go wrong for you.

for him than most of the others. He's a fly ball pitcher. He's vulnerable to the long ball at a time where it's especially bad to be that. And he really doesn't have a third pitch. So I could see how, I could see how on an inning per inning basis it gets a little worse for him next year. He actually had a 405 X-FIP versus a 333 ERA this past year. And then there's some innings accumulation that still has to happen.

So those are three kind of knocks against him. but it's it's knocks against him acknowledging that yes he is a high-end pitcher it's just you know sorting out the high-end pitchers at that point i i am actually a little bit baffled by chris paddock going where he is which is 19th overall in this early a dp um 19th that's starting pitcher excuse me about 58th overall in the mock draft that i did the other day i think he went like 45th um you know ahead of someone like charlie morton who, yes, has injury concerns, has age concerns, has had his own ending concerns, but that wasn't an issue last season.

But Charlie Morton was considerably better than- I have more than that. And then you even look at the ADP, and he's going ahead, right ahead of Luis Severino, Noah Cindergarde, and U.Darvish. Now, all three of those guys have glaring red flags. Noah Cindergarde has had a lot of injury issues, although he actually stayed healthy. And did he make it to 200nings? If not, he got right there.

but the performance wasn't where we wanted it to be, although the peripherals were actually pretty close to Chris Paddock, and we've seen Noah Cindergarde be an ace for a full season. Louis Severino... 97 and two-thirds innings for Cindergarde, but that was a career high. Yeah, and Louis Severino, we saw him be an ace two seasons in a row before last year he came back at the end of last season,

only made three starts, but looked pretty much like himself. And then U. Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball for basically the last four months. I would rather have all three of those guys than Chris Paddock. I think Chris Paddock's probably going, he probably deserves to go in more like the Jose Burrios range, but he's going nearly 20 picks ahead of him.

I have, the only one I disagree with is Darfish because of his age, because of really spotty track record. He was great, arguably the best pitcher in the game in the second half last year, though Jack Flaherty would have a claim to that too. And I think it was mostly, legit. It was closer to the real version

of U. Darvish than what we saw the first half and in 2018. But at the same time, I mean, there's obviously reason to wonder there just because it has been so spotty. I just think full season statistics are generally more predictive. Okay, fine. Chris Paddock

had a 333RA, which looks great, and I feel like everybody's just decided we're going to ignore peripherals with this guy. Because he had a 333RA. But his ERA estimators, you know, 383 FIP, 395 FIP, 4.05 FIP, they all suggest that he was much closer to being a Jose Burrios level, really low whip, decent strikeouts, but not at all elite.

They were all better than Udar versus FIP. Fine. That's fair. Yeah. No, I think I would probably take Sendergarde over him as well. That's the one that I would agree with you on there. I may get to a point to where I feel comfortable enough with Severino to do that, but I don't currently.

I took Cindergard and Severino as my top two starting pitchers in that draft the other day. And Corey Cluber is my number three because I can be nothing but the most on-brand version of myself possible at all time. But I think those guys legitimately do have a claim to, well, maybe not Cluber. Cluber, obviously there's a lot he needs to prove. But like nobody's going to be surprised if Cindergarde or Severino delivers an ace outcome this year. There's just more of those guys who can. Sure. I don't think you took it to the same extreme you have in the past.

I think that could absolutely work out well for you. It's just the most important thing is you need to have multiples of those guys because chances are they're not all going to deliver. And that's true of the entire top 25 at starting pitcher. I mean, injuries are so commonplace at the position that you can't trust that, you know, Max Scherzer or Jacob de Grom is going to be. healthy for you all season either. You need to have multiples because if you're stuck with

Waver Wire fodder at that position, it's going to kill you. A lot of old dudes at the top of the starting pitcher rankings this year. And Heath, let's get a couple more players that you like. Some deep outfield sleepers. Let's hear him. Speaking of on brand,

Ian Hap, who looks like kind of figured out some things at the end of last year. And currently, it looks like he has a spot in the Cubs lineup. I think they're finally going to give him another chance at being an everyday player. I still believe in the talent. He's been one of the most confusing players when it comes to his pitch selection and

his strikeout rate and his walk rate over the last three years. It's been up and down all over the place. But I think he's one of the guys that benefits from being more aggressive. He stopped taking quite so many pitches last year and it worked out for him. And he's available after both of these guys after Pick 300. And then I said I liked Alder Mariners. Kyle Lewis has been a prospect for quite some time, and he looks like he's going to get an everyday job.

He hit a bunch of home runs in very few games last year. I feel like Kyle Lewis is going to get an everyday job until he loses the everyday job because his contact skills are so bad. So very bad. Aaroners can just let him play, though. They're not going to win anything this year. Well, especially, I guess if they trade Hanager,

they may not have any other choice. But yeah, no, they got a couple of really good outfield prospects coming up. And I don't honestly expect Huio Rodriguez's 19 year old to be ready this year. But there are some who are speculating he could be. And then, of course, there's Jared Kalenick. So we'll see. We'll see. Lewis does have good power, but he's like a 40% strikeout rate in his 18 games last year.

And it was like 30% at AA before getting called up. So that's not good either. But there's definite upside there. There's upside for HAP. I think most people listening, their drafts going to end. before they have reason to go that far in the outfield rankings, but certainly like the five outfielder rankings, I could get behind them as sleepers,

the five outfielder leagues, I'm saying. All right, let's get to some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the email. We've got a handful of emails to get through over the last 15, 20 minutes of the show. So let's run through them. Starting with Ryan from Sacramento, wondering if you guys could analyze Josh Lindblum,

starting pitcher for Milwaukee as a deep sleeper, just signed for three years, 9.1 million. Coming back from Korea with close to 200 innings pitched, he's a guy who has a high spin rate, weak contact rates. Scott, where do you have Josh Lindblum ranked? Not in the standard mixed league range. I'm always hesitant to buy into these pitchers who had, you know, they were duds over here,

and then they go overseas and put up. stud numbers there against weaker competition in a very different environment. And especially when they don't have big strikeout rates over there, it was less than one per inning for Lindblum. Now, I think that's a league-wide trend. The hitters just don't strike out as much over there because it's a different style of play. But even so, I mean, Miles Michaelis came back and was less of a strikeout pitcher than he was

there where he wasn't a big strikeout pitcher. And a lot needs to be proven. I think right now the threshold for being a competent major league starting pitcher is in an offensive environment like now where home runs or pop-ups turn into home runs so easily. And it's like even guys with great skill can just get burned by bad home run luck so easily. I don't think I'm going to have too many deep sleeper starting pitchers just because I think that I'm not sure they exist. Lindblom, I don't think, would be one I'd focus on, though, if I did. It's interesting, and I don't remember, I know I've read something on this before. I don't remember how the KBO compares to the Japanese league in terms of offensive environment.

But his numbers really aren't all that different from what we saw from Miles Michael's the two years before he came over here. or came back here, I suppose. Yeah. And if he can be as good as Michael's has been the past two years combined, like just a high 3 ZRA guy that's going to pitch deep into games with good control, then that certainly has some appeal, especially if you're talking about one of our Roto leagues, it goes 300 picks. All right, from Henry.

I'm doing some way too early draft prep for 12-te-to-te-to-head categories league. He has the eighth pick. The top three in some order will be Trout, Acuna, Yelich, Betts and Belanger will probably go top five. That's going to be your top five in nearly every draft unless someone wants to take Garrett Cole in that range. He'll have the pick of two of the following. Francisco Lindor, Garrett Cole, Nolan Aronado, or Alex Bregman.

Who should I prioritize out of that group? Is there anybody else I need to consider Rendon or Soto maybe? Aronado, I don't think, is going to get drafted in that range. at least not right now. There are very real concerns about him being traded. I think there is, right now I think there's more smoke than there is fire around a potential St. Louis Cardinals trade, but I think people are very worried that Aronado is going to get traded. And it looks like he went 22nd overall in this draft.

I'm doing, which I almost took him coming back at the fifth. fifth pick of the second round. I ended up going with Freddie Freeman just because I feel like even Aeronado in Coors Field is not that much better than Freddie Freeman, whereas if Aeronado does get traded, you know, I could see him be more of a 275 hitter.

Yeah, it's looked a lot too in that draft. ADP has Aeronado, Composite ADP, NFBC, and a couple other sites, has Aeronado 10th overall. And that's, I think I have him ninth. Yeah. So that's where I see it.

He's still my number one third baseman in that format, though he's number three for me in a points league, because Bregman and Rendon are both so good with the play discipline. But a trade would force me to reevaluate things, but I don't think there's any reason to assume it right now. Do we agree that Lindor's first of this group? I think so. Not by much, but yeah. Yeah, and for me that's... No, I have Cole first.

Sorry, I overlooked Gary Cole. I have Garrett Cole first of that group. Really scared of Garrett Cole. You're really scared of Garrett Cole. What is really, well, what is really scared of Garrett Cole mean? Are you taking another starting pitcher ahead of him? I don't believe I would take Garrett Cole as the first starting pitcher, no. Who would you take?

I think I'd take DeGrom. That's interesting because I think DeGrom is, uh, is, it's hard to say someone's overlooked when they're currently the number two starting pitcher in ADP. And I actually thought he was more like number four. case four for me I'm actually surprised that he's going ahead of Verlander and Scherzer but they both have

they're both ancient yeah their old Scherzer coming off an injury Verlander playing for a team that may no longer be allowed to cheat so who knows what that's going to do that's like that's a good laugh line but it's 100% true and a big part of the reason that I'm concerned about Garrett Cole

no so it's actually yeah like why does everybody forget about Charlie Morton when this comes up. He left the Astros and was... I mean, look, the same picture they turned him into. The Rays have a lot of... The Rays have a lot of Silicon Valley venture capitalist bros, too. I could...

I could see the Rays getting up to some hijinks, too. For sure. I'm not... That's not fair. No. Charlie Morton's just awesome. Go with it. And Verlander, obvious Hall of Famer is...

No, it's because he's 37. That's the reason. I'm worried about Garrett Cole. Yeah. Like, I think there are reasons to think that he'll be worse this year than he was last. You should have, you should expect him to be worse. Yeah. That's how much worse?

He's got a lot of ground to lose, I think. Like, Verlander, Scherzer and Cole were far and away. Like, they were distant. That trio was ahead of everybody else. It's just that the two guys are ancient and the one isn't. So I go with the one that isn't. But I guess. if you talk yourself out of those three,

then I could see how DeGrom would go ahead of them. But to me, he was just a half step behind them last year. And, you know, obviously Scherzer and Verlander have such extensive track records at this point that, you know, I would take them over to Grom. I might take them over, Cole. All right. Luke from Seattle writes in Go Phillies. Matt Suck.

This could take an entire show, but can you break down a bit of Otani's value this year and for projections for the future. He's in a CBS points dynasty leave. You keep everyone in perpetuity. What's the value of having a bat slash arm guy in a league that heavily favors pitching? That's the thing is pitching is more valuable in a points league, but I'm not sure that applies to Otani.

I think he's probably better in a roto league than he is in a points league. Assuming that they continue to have to use a six-man rotation, which I think is the assumption moving forward. Yeah, though Joe Madden has been kind of cryptic about his plans for Otani. He's talked about using him as a hitter even on days he's pitching. So I don't really know what to expect from him workload-wise. Obviously, the fact is coming off from Tommy John surgery that impacts the pitching in, too. I really don't know what to expect.

I know the upside is huge, and I know if we're talking to dynasty context, there's going to be a role for him on your team for a long time. But I'm really, really confused about how to approach him for 2020. And I'm kind of just, I'm kind of just ranking him in a spot where hopefully I don't have to worry about it because somebody else takes him instead. Okay. Yeah, I think he's probably just more valuable in a roto format in general. Daily format, I think, is where he's really seen the biggest, the biggest impact from him. then you can get the best of,

you can get, you can get credit for both the pitching and hitting stats when weekly formats you have to choose and commit for that week. If you're in a daily format and you can use him as a hitter and a pitcher and he stays healthy this year,

he's going to be the most valuable player in fantasy in that league, right? Maybe. Maybe. That, I just, I have no idea how to calculate that. Because it's such an odd role,

there's clearly a huge difference between his daily, and weekly value. And I always focus on weekly on this podcast probably more than I should. But he probably is worth drafting among the top 15,

certainly 20 starting pitchers in a league that sets daily lineups. All right. Colin writes in, would you consider the idea of drafting starting pitcher heavy and committing to streaming hitters based on weekly matchups?

So basically the alternate of what, you know, certainly what I've approached with my hitting and pitching over the last, you know, five years or so that I've been on the podcast. He's thinking the model would look draft, look like drafting four pitchers in the first seven rounds. I think if you're going to commit to that, you probably go even harder because I don't think four pitchers in the first seven rounds. That's not going to be something

you see a ton of, but I wouldn't be surprised if you see it, you know, maybe once in a, in every 15 team league or something like that. I saw somebody's draft board a couple of days ago on Twitter. I don't remember who it was. And they had started their draft, I believe, with eight straight pitchers. I-L-O-Led. And then you sent me the message saying, look for hitters you like.

And I went to ADP. And I was like, you know what? That might just be crazy enough to work. There's so many good hitters available after the first 10 rounds. So I would have a hard time taking a starting pitcher in the first round if I had a top seven or eight pick. But after that, I don't mind this strategy at all this year. And I guess we don't really know. They could just change the baseball again.

And hitters might not be good anymore. But who knows? Yeah. And I mean, it seems like the height on the seams. based on the study that the results of the study that came out, this off-season, the height on the seams, the impact it has is,

like, it's such a fraction of a measurement that change in seam height, that it's really just, it's really just been dismissed as manufacturing variability. And I'm not even sure how much of it can be a conscious decision to change the ball or not to change the ball. So it's, it's something I don't feel like you can really account for in any possible way.

and you just have to go forward with the results we have. And I'm finding that I feel like I can't go hard. I try to go deliberately harder for the high-in starting pitchers than I have in the past, and I still feel like I could have gone harder when I see what my hitting looks like after the draft. Particularly if you're talking about a head-to-head lineup where you just three outfielders, you don't have the middle-in-field corner and field spots to fill. other than maybe second base, there's no way you can come.

It's virtually impossible to come out of a draft of that shallowness and feel like you don't have a quality starting hitter at every spot, you know? So it's, you're going to see, I feel like you're going to get the biggest impact from the big arms.

All right. That's going to do it for the fantasy baseball today podcast. Thanks so much for coming back. It was so good to be here. Did you enjoy your vacation? I thoroughly enjoyed my vacation. I'm getting ready to take another one.

Good, good. Scott, thanks as always. You're a rock. Yeah. They're always here. Unmovable. Unshakeable. I'm always here.

I'm always here. And I will always be here. It's good. It's very common. I'm stumbling toward the finish line like Adam does. Maybe we should just get out of here. It's better to just pull the plug real quick. I'm Chris Towers.

Thanks for listening. Fantasy Baseball today. We'll be back next week. You know,