Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/21: First Base and Second Base Tiers; Arenado and Ozuna Talk (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 22, 2020

Even though we'd like to yell at the voter who did not put Derek Jeter on a Hall of Fame ballot, let's talk Fantasy Baseball instead! What should you expect if Nolan Arenado gets traded (2:48)? How much do we like Marcell Ozuna with ATL (10:00)? ... We look at Scott's First Base Tiers (13:04). How eager should you be to grab Cody Bellinger or Freddie Freeman early? Who could you take late? ... Analyzing the Second Base Tiers (33:15) with good breakout options later in the draft but some uncertainty in the early rounds ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome in, everybody. Let's do a little fantasy baseball talk here.

Fantasy baseball today, after dark. It's almost 10 p.m. That means we're going to get some good, wacky Scott White. What's up, Scott White? Don't set expectations too high, Adam. That's never a good thing. All right, all right. We'll get some decent Scott White.

We got Chris Towers in the house as well. Chris is going to be his normal self today. Set the expectations incredibly high so you can know how my parents feel when I fail to live up to them. Oh, man. Chris is getting dark. Well, it's after dark. It's well after dark. I'm out of Mazer, by the way.

Welcome to the show, Fantasy Baseball today. Here's the quick programming schedule. Well, actually, here's what's coming up on today's show. We'll talk about the idiot who didn't put Derek Jeter in the Hall of Fame. And mostly first base tiers and second base tiers. First base and second base will explain tiers why they are important and what they look like at first and second base. We'll also talk about some prospects, Scott's favorite prospects in 2020.

So your email is at Fantasy Baseball at CBS. i'm going to try for three episodes this week next week's going to be tough because we're you know we're all going to be doing super bowl stuff in miami you are yeah you're freaking big timing us i'm not even sure who's in the super you're just showing up to oh guys i can't do the podcast wait you're not doing super bowl stuff chris no man oh i live in new york okay then chris and scott will have at least two episodes for you so that's no problem i'm assigning that homework to you but let's get started here we go derrick jeter and larry walker We're elected to the Hall of Fame.

Whatever. Jeter got all but one vote. It's just stupid. People are stupid. Love it. It's stupid. The Los Angeles City Council approved a resolution to award the last two World Series titles to the Dodgers.

Even stupider. Even stupider. Yes. They sound like they don't have pressing enough issues, but considering it's the second biggest city in the United States, I think they probably do. Why would the Dodgers? get the Nationals World Series.

Oh, right. I'm sorry. 2017 and 18. You know, they're not the only teams. They're not the only team that lost to the cheating Red Sox and Astros, you know. Obviously, the Yankees should get both World Series. And Noon Aronado is angry. This is much more important. I'm not sure if we brought this up, Scott,

when we were debating Noon Aronado, like, why is he going eighth or ninth in ADP when he just had another amazing year? I don't know if I said this. I meant to say it like a hundred times, but he might be brought up. Okay, he might get traded. I dismissed it as, eh. Oh, okay. I don't think he's probably getting traded, and if he does, we'll talk about it then.

That was kind of my thinking. But I feel now. Well, I... So, I wasn't sure what he was upset about at first. I mean, there was... The GM was public about how they're kind of putting to rest their Nolan Aeronado trade discussions for the time being, and then Aeronado was saying he feels disrespected. So I assumed

what did that mean he was like asking for a trade then? Which would be weird after signing a long term contract. But apparently he's just unhappy with I think the Rockies are one of only two teams that hasn't signed a free agent of any kind this offseason. And so the lack of I guess I guess transactions happening. But you know that that might be the equivalent now of him basically asking for a trade. I don't

know if he's if he's expressing public discontent um but then you know that's at the same time them saying they're not going to trade him and ultimately it's their decision so i don't know i don't know if there's going to be headbutting all year or what well he's a lot worse on the road well all rocky's hitters would be yeah well i guess i can go through the numbers you have to so i've got a lot of thoughts can i can i can i give some can i give some road stats Give some numbers while you're looking them up. Let's look at the, I have them. Let's look at the last four seasons on the road.

Let's go five, starting in 2015. 835 OPS, 832 OPS, 886 OPS, 772 OPS, and then last year, 867. So usually around 860 or so. 860 OPS with no steals is not that good of a player. Not like a borderline starter. Not saying that that's what he would be if he got traded, but that's just, Not a valuable player, basically. So, in fantasy.

Some thoughts. One, all hitters hit better at home than on the road. I mean, not all hitters, that's not true. But the hitting pool as a collective, last season had an 18-point gap in home to road OPS. Now, that's not nearly as significant as Nolan Aronados. Can I hit pause here? Okay, not an actual pause.

I think I'm really underselling an 860. OPS. It's absolutely relevant. So please scratch what I just said. Thank you for bringing that out. It's definitely, well, things have changed. Like, 860 is not what it used to be. I think if you're still. It's still pretty good.

Like, Manny Machado would kill to have an 860 OPS right now. Okay, so an 860. That's probably an overstatement too, if we're going to be. An 860 OPS with like three steals, two or three steals is probably a top, like, 70-ish player.

Something like that? Yeah, it depends on if he has, like, Nolan Aronado profiles is the kind of hitter who might have an overabundance of RBI relative to that kind of production overall, just because he's so contact-oriented for a power header. But, you know, before you so rudely interrupted me, I have multiple. But I think we need to go, I think we need to really appreciate how stupid of a statement I just made. Like, I just called the guy who voted against Jeter and the City Council of Los Angeles idiots, I deserve to be humiliated, publicly shamed

for saying what I just said. So I'm doing it now. I have another thought on that. Okay, the floor is yours, Chris. I don't want to take it. The thoughts are building up. I don't want to be too personal here. Yeah, this is, I'm going to blow.

The floor is yours. Go ahead. One, if we were going to get sidetracked every time you said something stupid, right. We might need to launch a new podcast. Okay. So stupid.

I can't believe I said that. All right. Go on. And then, so in addition to the fact that hitters as a whole hit better at Holm than they do on the road, obviously there are exceptions to everything. But for the most part, that holds true. It's about 20 points per season, Holm to Road, much bigger at Coorsfield. But one thing that there's been a lot of research that's shown, I think Al Malkior, a friend of the pod, has talked about this a lot as the Coors hangover effect, which is basically that hitters who play in cores, you know, home hitters as well. as away hitters, and I think that it's actually, it might even be more pronounced for home hitters.

The series after they play at course field, they tend to hit dramatically worse than their typical expectations. And so there is something about hitting at cores that makes you even worse when you get away from cores. And so it can tend to even heighten the disparity between home and road production. And then I'll point out, you know, Matt Holliday is a good example of someone who left Corsefield in his prime, had a 940 OPS, it looks like in his time at Coorsfield, 26 homers per year, 96 runs, 97 RBI. His next five seasons after leaving Coors, his average fell 15 points, but he still hit 304, and he still had a 910 opi.

So yes, you should expect some regression wherever Nolan Arrow on out of lands if he does get traded. But my thought initially hearing this is there is probably, going to be too much over correction with Nolan Aronado if he gets traded. You're already seeing in my FSGA league, he got drafted 24th overall, and that was before the latest round of discontent in this winter of Nolan Aronado's discontent. And so he, I think, like, it wouldn't shock me if we saw him fall into like the 40 range if he got traded. And give me all of that. Right. Oh, I agree. I mean, Matt Holiday basically went from being a first rounder to, a borderline second third after leaving Colorado.

And that's, I think, how I'd value Aronado if he got traded. Like, he would drop from probably my number one third basement to three. I'd definitely put him behind Bregman and Rendon, but it wouldn't be this bottoming out. It's, I think if you look back at all the star level players who left Colorado and went elsewhere, by and large, there remained star level players elsewhere. the biggest exception I can think of to that is Vinny Castilla, who was a pretty one-dimensional hitter, and it wasn't terribly surprising that he dropped off as dramatically as he did.

Yeah, and, like, Larry Walker did drop off, but he was still amazing. And he was old. It was very old. Yeah, so, you know what? Like, I think let's save this, shelf this debate for if he does get traded, but you think you guys have made good points. Fair enough. I'm the only one who has made a really bad point, so just, you know,

keep that in mind. And let's move on. I think we're pretty much done with news and notes, right? What was the last thing? No. Two things. The Braves signed Felix Hernandez to a minorly deal, right? Yeah, that. Not the biggest Braves news.

No. I think you missed something, Adam. Oh, what happened? It just happened a few hours ago, but the Braves have a new cleanup hitter to take Josh Donaldson's place in the lineup. It's not Elton Nolan Aronado. It is Marcelo Zuna.

They agreed to a one-year deal. One-year deal. Marcelo Zuna, for some reason, was willing to take a one-year deal. I'd be interested in finding out more about that in the future. But, yeah, one-year deal with the Braves and is going to bat in the middle of their lineup. And that, as a Braves fan, I find that very exciting

because upon taking another look at his numbers from last year, which, you know, from a fantasy perspective, he was a productive player, basically must start. His batting average ended up in the 240 range because of just a horrendous September. but he was a solid fantasy option last year. And then if you look at the expected stats versus the actual stats,

it's one of the biggest discrepancies you'll see in all the majors. His ex... His actual batting average, like I said, 241, not very good. His ex-batting average was 288. So he should have been a good source of batting average and he was actually a very bad one. His Wobah was 336.

His ex-WBah was 3.3.6. His ex-WBah was 3. 382, which was top 20 among ex-Wobas and all of baseball. So in terms of how he was impacting the ball, it was like an elite player. And now he's in a much deeper lineup. I shouldn't say much deeper, but a deeper lineup. He's in a better park for hitters. And I think his stock is up with this move.

Jorge Salera, Marcel Ozuna. I'm going to take Saler. I take Ozuna. But you know, I really like Saler. I do. Okay. Let me see. Let me get some ADP up here.

By the way, great start to the podcast for me. Did that stupid Aeronauta thing and did not even know about the Marcel Ozuena deal. It's okay, Adam. Nobody, it's fine. I was researching first and second basement for the last two and a half hours. While you're looking stuff off. Michael Conforto or Marcel Ozuna. Ozuna.

Yeah. But that was, no. No, actually, I think I had Conforto. I'm going to have to look at that again. They're going back to back and 80. That's the right. range, I think. But yeah, there is kind of a ripple effect here because obviously

one of Ender NCRTA and Nick Markechis is out of the Braves line. It probably, you know, assuming they both stay there and NCRte doesn't become trade bait, it'll be a time share to some degree. But NCRte has a great glove in center field. So I'm guessing he'll get the bulk of the playing time there. Nick Markechis obviously was a fringy mixed league option. And I would expect he's not going to be a mixed league option at all now. Okay.

So Marcelo Zuna to the Braves. Can we talk about first base tiers now? We can't. All right. They still have first base, right? I didn't miss anything. They didn't like change the position. Well, you know, Anthony Rizzo a few years ago.

Oh, yeah. That big. Hey, I'll get to give you a hot take. Ooh. I think I'd rather have Freddie Freeman than Cody Bellwinter. That's piping hot, that take. Don't burn yourself on that take. I mean, Freddie Freeman is, Chris, yeah, what do you think about that take?

It's just the steals. I think that's the biggest thing. Like, Cody Ballinger, you know, stole 15 bases last year. I think that's two years in a row in that range. It wouldn't shock me to see him get 20 in a career year. But in terms of just the quality of the bat, it wouldn't surprise me if Freeman had him beaten, you know, probably three out of the five categories. Okay.

It wouldn't surprise me. I'd definitely bet against it. I mean, Cody Bellinger's power. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I would give Ballinger the home runs and the stolen basis. And while, you know, much has been made about, okay, look at his batting average, the first two months versus the last four.

His strikeout rate was considerably lower all season long. He definitely improved as a contact hitter. And the expected stats support the season line where he's hitting where he was a 305 hitter. So yeah, maybe he was crazy unsustainably good out of the, right out of the gate. But I think this is a situation where the full season stats are more predictive than the partial season stats.

And he's the defending MVP, so I shouldn't need to talk them up too much. All right. Look, for the record, I actually would rather have Bellinger than Freeman. I just wanted to say something kind of fun and get people's minds rolling a little bit. So here's what I want to say. Bellinger was the number one first baseman in fantasy. Freeman was number two. Bellinger was the number

He was a top three hitter Two in points, three in Roto Freeman was a top 10 hitter Now we did an episode What You May Have Missed in September Or August in September And what you may have missed was Freddie Freeman Playing through an arthroscopic

Or playing through an injury in his elbow That required arthroscopic surgery And he hit 264 And slugged 389 in September So if I take his first First five months And I give him I always do a 155 game pace

not 162 game pace. I give him 155 games based on what he did in his first five months. His numbers are pretty similar to Bellinger's who played 156 games. Bellinger had like six more points in batting average. Freeman was on pace for 41 home runs. Bellinger hit 47. Freeman did have more runs plus RBIs. Freeman was on pace for seven steals.

Bellinger had 15 of them. Bellinger had more walks slightly if he were a strikeout. Belliger was definitely better. No question. It wasn't that big of a gap when Freeman was healthy. When Freeman was healthy, he was hitting $2.99 and on pace for 41 home runs and 31 doubles. He's amazing. And I really think that you look at his last four seasons, he looks like a 38-ish homer guy,

except for one year where he had an extremely low home run to fly ball rate. I don't think the home runs are that big of a fluke. And then is there any risk with Bellinger? The only thing I can see is that he's played three seasons. In one of them, he was horrible against lefties. So I went into 2008-19 pretty high on Bellinger's. I said, if he just hits better against lefties, you know, he's going to be awesome. He was awesome against lefties in 2017 and 19.

So I guess like that's just an X-factor. Freeman's pretty much always great against lefties. Last year was a little bit down, but usually great. I could see that going wrong for him. Freeman has been, I think, an extremely underrated, one of the best hitters in baseball for basically four straight years. I mean, he's a first rounder for me. So I guess from that perspective, there's not, it's not a huge gap between the two.

Since this is a tiers discussion, I do tier them. I do put them in distinct tiers. They each have a tier to themselves. The names I give my tears, I have Cody Bellinger as one of the super elite, which is, I add the super distinction to kind of separate the guys who I think are slammed dunk top half of the first round guys versus those that could go in the first round or second round. You know, there's a bit more of a cluster there. And I think Freeman's part of that that cluster. But because, you know, you have those two at the top and I think there's a pretty

big drop off to the third guy, I would prioritize Freeman over any of the third baseman in a standard five-by-five league. I would probably put Bregman ahead of him in a points league, just because Bregman's plate discipline is so good. So we'll see how that goes. Now that things have changed in Houston. But for now, I'm going to say it's going to be about the same. And I would take Bregman over Freeman in that format. But standard 5 by 5, I would take Freeman ahead of them

because first base is a thinner position than third base, and that's true at the top as well as in the middle. Freeman is kind of the guy. It's weird to say, but it's kind of the guy that you'll end up settling for. because at least in the handful of drafts I've done, especially when Scott's not there in the second half of the first round, he tends to fall a little more. You know, his ADP right now is 16th in the very early fantasy pro stuff.

I got him at 20th in that FSGA draft last week, and like, I'm thrilled. I'm really curious who else went there. You know what? I'm going to guess it was a lot of base dealers. There was a pitcher there. There was a pitcher run in that stretch. But there was also, like de Grom, Scherzer Bueller, Verlander, and Clevenger,

and Strasbourg all went before him. Yeah, that's... And then Trey Turner and Jose Ramirez. Yeah. I do expect the high-end pitchers to go for more of a premium this year than a year's past, just because a lot of people suffered by not having enough last year. But I think that was an extreme case of it. We'll see as more mock drafts happen.

That's my initial impression. When do you take Cody Bellinger? Where is he in your overall rankings? I take him fourth overall, generally speaking. In a points league, I actually have Ocuna behind him

because Ocuna's plate discipline isn't up to the level of the other hitters in that range. But, you know, Ocuna is the in traditional roto 5 by 5 leagues. He's the consensus number one pick.

So obviously I have him ahead of Bellinger in that format. Okay. Last thought on Freeman. is, I think he's safer in points leagues because his play just one's so good. And if he doesn't hit a lot of home runs, he'll probably hit 45 doubles. You know, those will probably turn into doubles. So that'll help you in the points leagues.

But, I mean, he's, he's one of the most reliable sources of batting average guy. And although people freak out about steals, I think, I honestly think batting average is a bigger priority in the early rounds because you're not going to find a high average guy who, you know, unless that's really. all he gives you in the later rounds. That's a category you have to fill early. Right. Okay. So, but this is a tier's discussion. So, yeah, first base is really, people are going to say it's deep, but I don't know

because there is a big drop off, it seems. The super elite is Cody Bellinger. The elite is Freddie Freeman. And then, Chris, what do you think about this tier of Scots? The near elite. Pete Alonzo, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, DJ LeMayhew, Max Muncie, Matt Olson and Carlos Santana, who would be a tier lower, by the way,

Carlos Santana in a Categories league. We always know he's better at points league. But that's a big tier of near elite. Pete Alonzo, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Bell, DJ LaMayhew, Max Muncie, Matt Olson, Carlos Santana. Yeah, and it's worth noting Carlos Santana is going to go well behind that. And especially Roto, like, he's 125th.

He would be a tier lower in Roto. But he might go towards the end of the next tier. Nobody seems particularly excited about him. My favorites in that tier are probably Muncie and Bell, and it's no surprise that they're also, with the exception of Santana, the two guys going latest. Your favorite or your favorite value? Because like you like them better than...

My favorite one's the draft. Although I'm not certain that like... I'm not certain that Max Muncie won't be better than Anthony Rizzo this season. I'm not certain that Josh Bell won't be better than Matt Olson. Well, that's the point of the tiers, right? I mean, the tiers is, you should be having that discussion where anyone in the tier, you know, you could see finishing ahead of someone else,

and that means you should wait and get the draft value, right? Right. Yeah, and that's where, like, Pete Alonzo going 30 spots ahead of anyone else in this tier right now, just kind of takes him off my board. Scott, I'm surprised that Pete Alonzo, quite frankly, doesn't have his own tier, you know? like Belcher one tier, Freeman one tier, and then Alonzo. Yeah, well, it was already a bit of a faux pa that I gave two guys their own separate tiers at the top.

Because if you start giving tiering each player individually, you kind of lose the purpose of the tiers too. I considered having Alonzo a tier higher just for Roto, kind of like I had Santana a tier higher just for head to head points. But ultimately, I decided there was a number. enough possibility of him regressing from that outlier home run total that I'm just, I don't feel that much worse about having Matt Alonzo as my first basement. Like, it seems perfectly feasible. Matt Olson. I'm sorry.

Olson, Matt Olson. It seems perfectly feasible. Olson could out Homer Alonzo this year. Yeah, I like Max Muncie, too. I mean, Max Muncie, two straight years hitting around 255 with 35 homers and playing in 137, and 141 games. Great on-base percentage. So, yeah, Alonzo, I mean, I tried to compare him to Aaron Judge

because he broke Judge's rookie home run record. And Judge actually pretty much backed it up. You knew that he was going to be worse, right? So Judge in his rookie season, which was his technically rookie season, he did play a little bit the year before. He batted 284 with 52 home runs. And then the next year he batted two-sexuals. with 27 home runs, but he got hurt,

his slugging percentage went down from 627 to 528. However, before he hurt his wrist, he hit 285 and he slugged 548. So while he did not have this, like, unbelievable year, he still had a 947 OPS before his wrist injury. And he basically backed it up. And so Alonzo, considering he was the number three first baseman, like if he has a similar season to judge,

I'm not saying he will, but if he does, that would be a pretty damn good thing. He would still have a really good year. And I think he will have a really good year. I would be shocked if he hits less than 40 homers, but that's still a big drop-off from 53. A big difference between him and Judge is Judge is like one of the... I'm not going to go as far as to say as an outlier

because there are a couple hitters there with them, but in terms of how hard they impact the ball, Judge is in a different class from Alonzo. And that's why you look at Alonzo's home run total and think, well, is that really something he's going to be sustained, be able to sustain every year, 50 plus homers? And I think it's right to be skeptical of that. He's a really good power hitter, but that would, you know,

we don't see a lot of players in the history of baseball getting 50 homers year after year. That kind of, there's a reason for that, and I think because you don't see in the skills, Pete Alonzo being that kind of historic outlier, You shouldn't expect that kind of historic outlier production. Okay. So the near lead is Alonzo, Rizzo, Josh Bell, LaMayhew, Muncie, Olson, and Santana.

I'm going to resist the urge to make this just the first base preview and talk about all these guys because I want to get to second base as well. So I guess we should let's move on, I guess, to the next best things. Because we're how many? One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine deep. So now we go to 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, Goldschmidt, Yasmani Grandal. look, you're going to play Lemayhew at second most likely, or you're going to play Grandal, a catcher, obviously, but these guys are all eligible first.

So Goldsmith, Grandal, Reese Hoskins, Jose Abraeu, and Trey Mancini. So at this point, Scott, you know, how do you feel about this group? The next best things. Goldsmith, Grandal, Reese Hoskins, Jose Abraeu, Tray Mancini. If you wait at first base, you could be looking at guys like this. Yeah, and I think it would be disappointing if you ended up with this as your first baseman. Goldschmidt is ranked higher. Like his ADP is higher than this.

And, you know, there's a lot of hope for a bounce back season for him. To a degree, the batted ball data supports it. But, I mean, his production was so lacking compared to the group ahead of him last year. And the fact that he's in his mid-30s now, I just think it's a little too rosy of an outlook to tier him with that group ahead of him. I couldn't, in my mind, justify taking him over any of those others.

So I felt like I had to tear him lower. Is it just batting average for him, though? Because, I mean, look, he hit 34 home runs. That's three straight years and four out of five with 33 to 36 homers. He doesn't steal anymore. We know that. Three steals. But he hit 260 after three straight years of hitting 290 to 297, which was lower.

I mean, batting average and overall upside, I think, you know, the group ahead of him, they all stand out in some way other than the power. Or if it's just the power, it's like an extreme level of power, like in the case of Alonzo and Olson. So, yeah, I don't like Goldschman as much. I'd be curious to what Chris thought. I'm mostly with you. I have trouble at this point seeing a real bounce back.

There's been some skills erosion over the last couple of years. And, you know, I think each of the last two seasons we saw he, was sort of able to turn it around, but last year the turnaround came later in the year, and it wasn't as dramatic. He wasn't able to pull himself out of there like he was in 2018. And so, you know, with Goulchman,

I just think we are seeing him, you know, kind of get closer to the end of the road. And the fact that there doesn't seem to be much stolen base potential there especially, really scares me off. Meanwhile, I'm pretty much buying it to like Tray Mancini, who isn't nearly as popular. of a pick in fantasy.

He seems to be getting the treatment players get a lot of times after a breakout when they're presumed to be beyond their prime. They just tend to get written off in fantasy just because I'm frankly not sure why.

I guess it's just people see you know, people would expect it to happen sooner and because it happens at the stage it happens, they're reluctant to believe in it. but it's not his first breakout. Like he had showed not quite last year, although...

But he improved his launch angle. I mean, it seemed like the skills improved. Like, if the skills back up the mid-career breakthrough, I'm going to, for the most part, buy into the mid-career breakthrough. But what I was also saying is, like, he does... He did show the floor before. Like, he did show the skill set in 2017. He regressed in 2018, but, you know, it didn't come out of nowhere.

It wasn't like... Sure. You know, a Danny Santana where he just had been nothing before turning into a useful player last year. Right. You know, it's a little harder to buy into, like maybe a Max Muncie. I guess the difference is 2017 Mancini, who had a good year. I looked at the supporting skills and thought, eh, I don't know that he can sustain that. And now I look at them and I think, yeah, well, maybe he can.

So, you know, if I'm settling for Goldschmidt as my first baseman, I might as well settle for Trey Mancini. because I feel like the bottom-out risk is similar for both. And the upside, it seems like, is similar for both, too. And they're probably going very, very differently in drafts, right? Right. Okay, so let's check it out. Goldschmidt on Fantasy Pros right now is going 63rd. Mancini's going 104th.

So, big discount there. All right, so I'll read just some more names here, and then we'll kind of sum up first base. after Goldschmidt, Grandal, Hoskins, Abraeu, and Mancini. You've got the fallback options. Yuleiguriel, Edwin and Carnacion, and Danny Santana.

And then after that, the last resort. Luke Voigt, Jacques Peteson, Yandi Diaz, Christian Walker, Joey Vado. We've got some deep league names. You can check out. All these articles, by the way. Tears at every position. They are up on the website.

Go to CBSports.com slash fantasy. Click on baseball. You'll see all these tiers. So, yeah, after this next best things, we got Gouriel and Carnacione and Danny Santana. Do you feel like getting Bellinger or Freeman is really important to you? It's, for the most part, I'm not going to be playing the position scarcity game much because I don't think the distribution of talent at the positions, the stage we're at here in 2020 really supports it. I think there's enough to go around at every.

infield spot and a standard 12 team league. But, you know, it helps break ties, like in the case of Freeman and Aeronado that I pointed to earlier, it's enough for me to opt for Freeman. It's, it elevates LeMayhew and Muncie to a degree that they're eligible at second base. That's where you're more likely to draft them to play, and that's one of the few positions where you could potentially get left out. That's more about the eligibility bonus than a scarcity bonus for me. Yeah.

I'm also going to mention Danny Santana. Kind of like Carlos Santana. The two Santanas, how about that? Carlos Santana drops a tier in points leagues. Danny Santana drops a tier in roto leagues, and that's indicated in the article. So if you were playing in a points league, it would just be Uli Griel and Edwin Incarnacion

in that fallback options tier. And people might take exception to having Uli Gurriel that low. but, you know, from my perspective, his production was so focused on a two-month stretch in July and August and he's over 35. Way, way, way outlier for his career. Yeah. Now, that's the one Astro, I won't be drafted.

Yeah, I do think that Danny Santana's production was pretty concentrated. Well, like he had a great April, the 59 at Bats, terrible May, great June, great July, terrible August, terrible September. I wouldn't say terrible, but not good. Although he did hit eight home runs in August. It came with the 195 batting average, though. That kind of just sounds like a season to me, though. Yeah, a little bit.

Plus, his playing time is so sporadic that I think it's hard to do. And a lot of the underlying stats back him up. And he's another guy who you might not play at first base. He's eligible at multiple positions, right? No, actually. Well, first base and outfield. And second base. 17 games play the second base.

No, he needs 20. It's 20 to carry it over. Come on, Chris. What a dummy. That's the dumbest thing said on the podcast today. All right, let's go over to second base. Second base tiers. You're off the hook at him.

Yeah, all right. The elite, boy, I look at this and I freaking hate second base. I got to say, Scott. I don't just... Like, I actually like the value at second base. I may be a little hesitant to invest early in second base, but I don't think you have to based on ADP.

There are a lot of potential breakout options at second base. Like, it could end up being just as deep as any other infield position, but there comes a point where somebody in your league is forced to take a chance on, roll the dice on somebody there. And you'd rather it not be you. You'd rather feel good about your second base option going, into the season, but you'll see it right from the very top. I had a super elite tier at first base that consisted of just Cody Bellinger, but still, I don't at second base. It's missing that top

tier. It starts with the elite. It's one of just two positions, I think, three if you count reliever, I guess, that doesn't have that super elite tier catcher, reliever, the others, and those are positions that historically we consider Jallo. So second base is with them, at least. for this year. Okay, so the elite at second base, Catelle Marte and Jose Altuve. So no first round possibilities at second base, clearly. Maybe not even second.

There might not be any second rounders in your draft. I mean, I rank both Marte and Altuvae at the end of my second round, but I know ADP doesn't have Catell going that early. It has them like in round four. And I'm guessing it doesn't have Altuve going that early either. 30th.

He's going 44th, Catelle Marte. Scott and I talked a lot about Gatel Marte. Chris, I'd like to know how you feel about him. He was the number 16 hitter in fantasy last year, bat at 329 with 32 home runs and 10 steals, 36 doubles, and nine triples. He, so I'm working on a position preview series that'll be out.

Hopefully by the end of this week on CBSSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Check it out. Good sight. and so I wrote little capsules for every player and basically what I wrote with Cheadle Marte, if you buy into the advanced stats, you buy into Marte. He was 94th percent on statcast expected average,

86 and expected slugging percentage. It mostly, the advanced stats mostly back up what he did. So it's just a question of if you believe in those, you're going to buy into him. And, you know, I tend to believe in them. I don't think I'm quite as high on him as Scott is, but I apparently am a advanced stats fanatic here, which is you are. Well, what's interesting is Marte was one of those guys a lot like Josh Bell last season,

where I actually liked him as a sleeper coming into the season. He way outperform my expectations, and I expect a little regression. But it wouldn't surprise me if he was mostly as good as he was last year. Yeah. No, I hear that. And you were right about Josh Bell. I mean, he clearly regressed in the second half, even though the advanced stats backed up what he was doing in the first half.

Marte was even better. Yeah, Marte got better. So that, I mean, I would think that would help codify those stats, but maybe not. Maybe not. Okay, so, you know, as you look at second base right now, do you think it makes sense to go with Cateel Marte or Jose Altuve or wait and get a value? Because the next tier, the near elite, is a big one.

Glaibor Torres, Ozzie Albiz, Whitmerfield, DJ LaMayhew, Jonathan VR, Kest... Only in Roto. Okay, VR only in Roto. Kestin Hira, Max Muncie, and Jeff McNeil. That's a big tier right there. Again, I'll read it. Glaber, Albies, Merrifield. What a weird...

You hear crap last year. Jeez. DJ LaMayu, VR, only in Roto. Hira, Muncie, and McNeil. Maryfield just completely lost the steals, basically. Yes. What do you do with him? Second base, this is what I wrote in my position preview.

It's kind of the island of misfit toys in baseball right now, or it's kind of the spare parts drawer. Like a lot of teams just kind of are willing to just throw dudes at second base. And so over the last couple of seasons, we've seen where like five years ago Max Muncie and Mike Mastakis and Travis Shaw never, ever would have played second base. and maybe even three years ago, it would have been kind of unheard of,

and now teams are kind of willing to throw it. So it's like a weirdly deep position. It's just this, the near elite tier kind of exemplifies what a strange position it is, because there's not like one type of player, there's not like one type of skill that you can get. It's kind of all over the place.

But I will say, I think I probably like John of the VR more than the consensus, and I'll draft him a lot in Roto. Okay, Marlins. Yeah. Total Homer pick. Long time, beloved Miami Marlin, Jonathan V.R. When I have a guy, when I have a guy, a tier higher in Roto, as is the case with VR, as was the case with Danny Santana, usually stolen bases are the reason.

Yeah. That's not to say a stolen base guy can't be as valuable in points leagues in Whitmerfield's case. I think he absolutely is because he hits a lot of doubles. He doesn't strike out much. He has some points league specific skills there. But in VR's case, his draft status, I think, is mostly dependent on his ability to run a lot. And that's going to mean playing a lot and hitting well. I think his chances of doing that are probably just as good with the Marlins as they were with the Orioles.

Yeah. But still, it's, you know, this wouldn't be the first time he fixed us out. So I'm a little reluctant to buy into them. I feel like you can get your steals other places. I think you don't need that many steals to be competitive in the category. And that's something a lot of people are forgetting right now when you see how early these steals guys go. Right. You don't have to win the category.

Right. But taking a guy. You talked about the drop-off in steals for him last year. He went from leading the majors to having 20. Yeah. Okay. 20 is still a lot of steals. Yeah, and he didn't have a great percentage, only 30 attempts, 20 steals.

So maybe better percentage. It's more like 23, 24. I don't know. But, look, steals are a little fickle, which is why, if you've been listening to this podcast for a while, I was sort of on the Christian Yewitch ahead of Mike Trout. I was kind of driving it. This is maybe the only one. But I can't do that because I just don't know year-to-year how many bases a guy is going to steal.

It's just too unpredictable. We have too many examples of a player that you. you are banking on for steals, and it just doesn't happen. Two years ago, I remember taking Jose Altuve in our auction Roto League. I took Altuve and someone else that was like him. And I got steals locked up, and they both just stunk basically in steel. So you just never know. And that's another reason why you can't, I don't feel like you can invest too heavily in it is, you know, it's...

Well, go ahead. That's why I like VR as kind of a happy medium where I don't have to spend the first round pick, obviously, you probably are going to have to spend a third, maybe fourth round pick in a Roto League. But he's not just a specialist. That's not to say that he's good. But

he may not be just a specialist. He wasn't just a specialist last. But even the year before. 16 of his 24 home runs were at home. He's going from Baltimore to Miami. I know they're moving the defense is in. But over the last two seasons, he's

average 19 homers per season. He's hit 268 overall. 38 stolen bases. That's good. Like, it's not, like, 268's not good. He hit 260 in 2018, but if he hits 260 again this season and plays, you know, gets 650 plate appearances, that's probably not going to be a bad investment for my stolen base guy. Probably not.

Like, that's the biggest thing. I'm not worried about playing time with the Marlins. It's all about steals. He has to steal bases. And he probably will. I just don't know if he's going to hit. well like particularly with in terms of bad I'm just not picking it in like that's with my other with the team that I drafted in that draft I've talked about I started with Bregman and and Freeman it even even as

bad as the Marlins are if he's hitting VAR's hitting 220 I mean I was making the same argument for the or when he was with the Orioles last year and obviously it didn't happen he had a great year but you know if he's hitting 220 uh and he's obviously not a part of their future it's just only happened once in four years Okay. You know, like he didn't have that one really bad season, and it burned us because he was like a second round pick coming off that 62 steel season.

But I feel like we're kind of overlooking that three out of the last four years, he really has been the kind of player. Right, right. But he really has been the kind of player who would, like, that team I started Breggman, Freeman, VR Springer. I don't care if VR hits 240, I'm fine. Yeah, no. And the thing is.

Pitching sucks. though. Who's, Breggman, who? Freeman, VR, and Spray. Oh, yeah, you got some bad pitching. All right, no, let's move it on, though. Ultimately, what this tier says is you're not supposed to pay up for Glaber Torres.

That's what there's very large tiers. See, and that's the thing. Like, I actually, I really feel like Torres could be someone who is hurt by a new baseball if that happens because he's basically just home runs. But I really think there's a chance he's a superstar. He's 23 years old. He's great.

He could be elite. All of these centers are great. Well, I don't, I mean, like, he's a better hitter than Whitmeryfield. He's a better hitter than Jonathan V.R. You know, like, Glaber Torres has superstar potential. In what way is he better than Whitmeryfield? Because Whitmeryfield is right up there and Freddie Freeman. Whitman.

He hit 16 home runs. He had 16 home runs. He's not even going to hit 20 home runs in the home run era. You could give that bad steroids and a juice baseball. He's going to hit less than 20 whole runs. Uh, yeah, Glaber's gonna hit more than 30. That matters.

No, much better lineup. Taurus has more power. Yes, I'm not going to argue that. But I think their overall production is going to be similar. It was this past year. Yeah, yeah.

In a down year of first for Stores is 23. Torres is 23. That's an arrow's pointing up. You know, Maryfield's peaking, I would say. Yeah, it's like, I don't want to draft Glaber, but I don't want to be the guy

who makes the argument against them. I don't want to be on record. Like when you're that good, that young, like, okay, maybe he overperformed a little bit. Maybe he had five more. Like, the skills increase could come so rapidly that it doesn't matter. Right. That's true.

So you mentioned all the upside, and there's the next best things, Mike Mustakis and Eduardo Escobar, and then after that, the fallback options, Kevin Bigio, Gavin Lucks, Tommy Edmund, Garrett Hampson. Then you got Ryan McMahon and Brandon Lowe as last resort.

who are you most excited about Scott? Oh, most excited about probably three fallback options who I think could take a big step forward and by this time next year we're talking about them as near elite players themselves and well really all four of them you can say that about but the ones I'm most excited about are Bizio Edmund and Garrett Hampson Gavin Lux may have the most upside of all

them, but he doesn't have a job yet, and he has to prove himself in the major still. But what I actually saw from Vizio, Edmund, and Hampson in the majors, particularly late in the year, they all look like players who could impact four categories at least. I'm not going to say Bizio could hit for average. And Hampson's power and Edmund's power, I think could be more Whitmerfield-like than, you know, 30 homerish but still there's some power there for each of them and they both run a lot they both profile to hit for average and that's that's a nice find at a weak position uh in the middle stages of a roto draft especially uh but you know again it goes back to what i was saying at the

start of this position none of them are proven none of them has a full season track record of being a starting caliber player even. So there's some question marks there, but definitely upside if you do miss out on the safe second baseman. I'm really talking myself into Biggio. I was skeptical of him. I don't necessarily love his approach at the play. And I know one of the big draws for him is that he walked so much last season.

And he never really swung at pitches out of the strike zone. There are a lot of things to like about that. But I'm worried that it's more he just doesn't like. like to swing than that he has this. Yeah, I mean, that's, that is noted. Yeah. And the one thing I will say is, first of all, you could, you could look at Alex Bregman and their swing profiles actually look very similar. I think Alex Bregman was the only player who swung at fewer pitches overall than Camibizio, or it was really close.

I would also say that it was very similar to where Yon Moncada was this last, this time last season where he walked a lot, but he struck out too much. And it was, it wasn't because he swung and missed a lot. It was because he just didn't swing, and it led to him passing on pitches that he should swing at, putting himself in question and disadvantage, disadvantageous counts. And in Moncada's case, the batted ball skills and base running skills were so clearly elite that just a slight improvement in his aggressiveness turned into this big breakout that I mostly believe in. I think we could see something similar with Bigio. And if it does happen, You're looking at a profile that could look a lot like Matt Carpenter with 20 steals, which is insane.

All right, yeah. So second base is exciting. Could be some players that really emerge. It's not necessarily exciting at the top. You know, you never know. It should be noted that Jose Altuve in the second half had the second half of a lifetime. Post-all-Star break, he had a 9-94 OPS. He batted 325.

He slugs 622. So maybe he's awesome again. We'll see. And Chris is trying to get your attention. What, what's up? No, I was doing a bit. Oh, you're banging on a garbage can. Yeah.

Nice. Sorry, I felt something buzzed by shoulder. I didn't know that was here. Nobody was banging on garbage cans in the second half of last year. That doesn't mean they weren't cheating in other ways. That's right. I'd have yet to fully reveal themselves, but we'll see what happens with that. I couldn't give you an electric.

shock from over here. We'll work on it. Okay, so prospects and emails, I don't know, should we just save prospects for tomorrow? Scott, I'd hit to shortchange it. Well, we don't have to talk about Aeronado and Ozuna. Maybe they won't be breaking news tomorrow.

Whatever, Adam. This is your ship. Okay. See us into the horizon. Then we'll save it for tomorrow. That way we can, you know, dedicate a good amount of time to it. Emails from Greg and Brewster, New York. I am in an auctioned Dynasty League, we can keep up to 12 players. Head-to-head categories. It's 12 categories. Prior to each

year's auction, we have a three-round prospect draft. This year, I'm picking number five. Do you have any idea who I should take? Keep in mind if the player does not log one at bat or inning pitch, they will be thrown back into the following year's draft. And I'm assuming Gavin Luxe will be kept. I know Keyboom and McKay will be dropped, so they will be draft eligible. I'm asking you this, Scott, because we do have a prospect draft coming up this week. So you got the fifth pick, but you need someone who's going to play at least one at bat or one inning in the majors. Oh, man.

And so it means that anybody who didn't play one at bad or one pitch in the majors, last season is available, right? Yes. Am I reading that right? I mean, unless, yeah, yes, it would have to be. Okay. All right. So Luis Roberts is going to be taken by the fifth pick.

Joe Adele is going to be taken. He mentions here... Wander Franco's going to be taken. Well, Wander Franco's probably not getting in a bat in the majors next year. So maybe not. Yeah. Raise our patient. He mentions here Carter Kiboum and Brenda McKay will be dropped and draft eligible.

And I was just reading today, actually, that it sounds like Carter Kibum is the favorite for the Nationals, third base, job. Not just getting a chance, but the favorite. Dave Martinez, the Nationals Manager, seems to already be selling as Drew Bull Cabrera, who was the presumptive favorite on the idea of being a utility player. Carter Kiboum, I'm pretty sure he's in my top 10 prospects. So I would think it fit overall in a draft like this where, you know, some of my top 10 are going to be kept already,

and some just aren't going to meet the qualification of it at bat. Carter Kibum sounds like he might be a nice fit there. Okay. Beautiful. Let's move on to our next question. Justin in Toronto. I play in a dynasty head-to-head points league. And I hoped you could rank these pitchers available my upcoming draft for both this year and the long term. Frankie Montas, Max Fried, Brendan McKay, Denelson Lemette, and Zach Gallen. So Montas, Max Fried, Brendan McKay, and Zach Gallen. This year in Hong Kong. Sorry, Scott. Also, my bad. Also, on the off-chance,

Nate Pearson falls to me, all Blue Jays fans. Would his ceiling be worth taking over any of them? No, I think the ceilings are high enough for at least most of these players that he would not be at the top of the list for me. You know, bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, right? Correct. Frankie Montas.

It is true, I mean, what am I going to say? Yeah, okay. Thank you for supporting my cliche there. Frankie Montas is still on the right side of 30 and I believe in the breakthrough he had last year. So, you know, he looked like an ace before the suspension. And I don't expect him to drop off because of the PED suspension because rarely does any player ever do that.

So, yeah, Montas would be number one for me. Zach Gallen, I love his upside. He'd be number two. This is for this year or this is for... This is for this year, but I'm saying none of these guys are at a stage of their career where you really worry about them dropping off long term. But you're taking Frankie Montas, who was a huge surprise last year,

over like Brendan McKay, who is an elite prospect. Yeah, that's interesting. He's like the kind of elite prospect who is, was really, really close to the majors as soon as he was drafted. Yeah. And was a really like high probability pick, but not necessarily. Like, I'm that there's no such thing as a pitching prospect guy. So like any of these guys could turn into, you know,

Brendan McKay could make a Frankie Montas lead next year. And it wouldn't shock me. Brendan McKay Oh sorry I thought you were doing No go go Brendan McKay has Um dominated the miners

thoroughly like Chris was saying I mean full arsenal Great control Does he have a genuine Putaway pitch That seems to be the question And that partially explains his struggles

In the majors last year And while I do think he has a fine career ahead of him Again Do I have to repeat the cliche Adam Frankie Montas Actually looked like an ace

for the time he was pitching last year. The bird in the hand. There's only one Blue Jay in this question, though. So how do we get to two in the bush? I think I would take... Nobody? I might take Pierce over McKay, to be honest. All right, let's do it.

Motas one. Motas one. Yeah, Motas one, gallon two for me, and then I think there was a little bit of a gap. Yeah, I'd probably go freed three. and then maybe Pearson McKay over Lomett, but I think you could justify going Lomette as high as three, honestly. It's pretty tight there at the end.

This is from Rick. I'm just getting back into fantasy baseball for the year. My league I've been in since I was 14, 23 years. Saw a decrease in the interest over the past few years, more than half the league. So I ended it, and I'm going to start a new league with about half the guys from the old league. It seemed like we had our best years

when we played head-to-head categories with wild wild west rules. Oh my gosh, what does that mean? So that means that no innings limits minimum or maximum, right? And no pitching, no pitching designations, just no relievers or starters, just pitchers. Okay. So, right, that's how I interpret that. So everybody could have their pet strategy that they brag about.

Right. That kept everybody interested, I guess. My question is, how should I set up the categories in a way that doesn't just totally devalue starting pitchers? In the past, no one would draft a starting pitcher until at least the three to four round or the closers were gone. And then people would wake up at 3 a.m. when you could start picking up streamers for the day, which was cool in its own way, but shouldn't be the requirement. So if we did six by six, what category should we add? Quality starts. I think it should be a rate stat, I think. Not a, because basically what you're trying to prevent against is just picking up streamers and

dominating the counting stats. And so if you add like a K per 9, let's say, you've created a situation where three of the six pitching categories now are rate stats and you don't, you aren't quite as, as advantaged by just streaming every piece of crap you can throw out there. All right. So that definitely reduces the value of the pieces of crap,

which is a large percentage of the pitcher pool these days. But it's still, It still helps relievers. Yeah, it still helps relievers disproportionately to starting pitchers. Yeah. I don't know. I don't have a good answer off the top of my head.

I don't know if maybe... What's wrong with acquiring some starting pitchers? I mean, I play in a really good league that's, I think, three starting pitchers, three relievers and two pitcher spots or maybe it's two, two, and three or something like that.

I don't know the best way to do it when there are no stipulations between starters and relievers. I mean, that's the most direct way to do it, but he's saying doesn't sound like you want to do that. All right, so let's pick six categories. I don't know something like having... Well, strikeouts...

This is too important to just do it off the cuff. You could go away from K-per-9 and do like win-loss record, like win-loss ratio. Could do that. All right. So let's pick our categories. Saves is a category. ERA, whip.

They're a category. Strikeouts as a category. That's four. You need either wins or quality starts. That's five. Probably quality starts, right? Because that kills relievers. And, you know, they could get some wins here and there.

And then what's your sixth category? I mean, is it wins? Is it the other one of wins and quality starts? Well, is it innings? No, because I think you're giving too much weight to the streamers there. That's the thing. The five categories are balanced. But you know what?

I don't know about that because... The streamers are going to hurt your ERA and your whip often. Right, but now you've added an extra counting stat. You could just punt ERA and whip because there's four counting stats. I'm thinking of a rate stat like K-per-9, but then you're having strikeouts and K-per-9. Is that putting too much emphasis on that missers? Maybe you get rid of wins, do wins losses,

and then do, like, win-loss ratio and then do quality starts. Which I believe you can do win-loss ratio in a CBS league. Not 100% sure. Don't quote me on that. Not the kind of thing I should know. Yeah. Well, this is why I don't like Wow, Wild West, because it just, I mean, starting pitchers is the hardest thing. It's like, it's such a big part of fantasy, and you basically don't need them in that's.

Yeah. I mean, that seems crazy. That seems lame. I mean, he's saying people enjoyed it more that way, but that, that, that, just to exclude that big part of baseball just seems not in the spirit of playing fantasy baseball. We're going to get an email telling us that we're idiots and there's an obvious answer that has already been around for 15 years. Doesn't exist.

I look forward to that. Fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Chris. com. Chris. Stop, stop, stop. So, Chris, by the way, actually, I said the dumbest thing on today's show. Chris said the dumbest thing on the other day's show.

When was that? When was it her last show? Friday? Yeah. Well, you weren't here for us. Chris is like, now's a great time to get your emails in because we don't have that many. Have you seen our inbox, dude? Well, relatively speaking, we don't have that many. We get a lot.

All right, here's a question for Scott from Josh. My 2019 ranking among MLB pitchers. Swinging strike rate, 16th. Ground ball rate, 14th best. K-per-9, 24th, FIP, 30th, X-FIP, 19th, K-rate, 24th, walk rate, 8th, Whip 24th, Sierra 17th, and I'm not in Scott's top 125 starters. Why no love for Ramon Marquez?

Did you do your... Did you check on this email, Adam? Did you check the work? No, I didn't at all. I sent this to you a minute before the show. He's not in your top 125? That can't be. He was in your top one last year.

Yeah, he's your number of 156 players. overall. Maybe they mean Domingo Armand? You know, they mean Herman Marquez. For some reason, he's not showing up in my starting pictures. I'm going to have to see what happened there. Technical difficulties. That was something glitchy

that happened on the upload, which was done in an indirect way. Where is he in your theoretical rankings? All right, let me refresh my memory here. He is, I think, around 40,

fifth in my starting pitcher rank. Between Mike Minor and Dallas Kichel. That sounds right to me. Oh, my gosh. Which would be 44th. Dallas Kikekle's the worst. All right, cool. That's Armourkez.

He's 44th. Thank you for the email, Josh. Jeff in Brooklyn, as a pessimistic Mets fan, gee, I don't know why, and a fantasy baseball player, I'm curious to hear what you all think about the Mets 2020 bullpen.

Is there anyone you would want to draft even in the middle rounds? Can Diaz bounce back? is Patensis going to return to his pre-injury self? Is Seth Lugo a top pick in a holds league that I play in? Is there anything else worth noting? All of the Edwin Diaz. Give me all of the Edwin Diaz.

He's 132nd overall in this early ADP. At that price, give me all of the guy who was going 80 spots higher this time of year ago. Yes, he had a terrible season. Yes, he couldn't throw his slider. Whatever. Give me that and I'll pray for the bounce. I think that's one of the easier calls

if I can get him. It's interesting. He's a top 12 reliever for me, but I don't, does anyone know for sure that he's the Mets closer this year? I mean, he didn't finish last year in the role. Seth Lugo had a great year. I would guess, I mean, I'm ranking him ahead of Seth Lugo,

but obviously if he's not, you don't want to invest, over-invest in him because then you could wind up with, all of the end-winds-round pick on a non-saf source, which doesn't work in a traditional league. They could have a really good bullpen. I mean, they could, yeah.

Part of the reason he's still that high in my rankings, even without knowing, is because there are question marks and all kinds of bullpins. There is a clear front-runner in most of them, but just the way the role is handled this year with it being divided between so many relievers, you know, do I feel that confident, and Emilio Pagan of the Rays

or Brandon Workman of the Red Sox? No, and I just found out today sounds like Carlos Martinez is going, the expectation is he's going to be back in the rotation this year for the Cardinals. That removes another clear-cut choice. Giovanni Gallegos would be my first guess

for who takes his place, but there are other options there. I don't know. Maybe Alex Reyes. I always like to prioritize, not prioritize. I was like to consider job security. So I do like gambling on Diaz, but he's got Batanzas and Lugo that they could go to. Batances is coming back from, I think, three injuries.

So it's a lot to ask, but he was on the very short list of best relievers in baseball for like four straight years. So I don't know that there's a lot of closers who are on shakier ground than Diaz. But at the discount, yeah, I mean, the upside is certainly, there. If they change the baseball and they change the seams in particular, that could really help him with his slider. Because I have heard people talk about that, that the seams, like, Tanaka, for example, had a lot of trouble with his splitter because of the seams. And I think that was the reasoning for Diaz, at least I saw that, you know, for him not being able to throw his

slider. So make sense, take gamble on him. Yeah, I'm kind of of the mindset, and this is changing the subject a little, that they're not going to change. the baseball, at least not consciously, because their own research findings were that it was a manufacturing variability. And these baseballs are, I think, hand-stitched or something, so it...

You cannot do this at the end of a podcast. This is for the beginning of a podcast. I believe Hanlon's razor applies to everything when it comes to MLB these days, which is never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence. I think you mean. Especially with the

baseballs, I don't think they have any idea what's happening. I don't know about that. I think that they changed in the postseason. Seems like a lot of people think that. But there was like an explanation that they pulled that from a different batch that was created in the middle of the production. Like, I don't know, like.

You were so, you were peddling all these conspiracy theories almost sarcastically on Friday with Heath. They are, they are handsome. They are hand-sown these baseballs. And so you can't expect great precision. The research showed that it is like, I don't even know what decimal place it is.

That percentage of change in the seam height can have a drastic impact on how far the balls fly. So it just seems like total random luck that, you know, we've seen baseball stitches turn out this way the past few seasons. Scott is such a pawn. If they turned out slightly differently, in the post seat. A pawn in Rob Manfred's game.

I didn't realize it until right now. We're out of here. Thanks for listening, everybody. Back tomorrow with another edition of fantasy baseball today. After dark.