Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/23 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Early Sleepers

Episode Date: January 23, 2018

Before Scott and Heath give some early 2018 sleepers, let's talk about the impact a pitch clock might have (2:00) and when we are drafting Michael Conforto and Yasmany Tomas (4:58) ... Keep an eye on Austin Barnes (10:40). Can Evan Gattis be the #1 Catcher in Fantasy (14:55)? We also give you a couple of 2B sleeper options (18:12) ... Why Mike Clevinger (28:20) is a good sleeper, why Carlos Rodon (31:40) will be worth stashing and a couple of prospects (33:06) you should draft ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Southpaw slits, pine tarmonds will wait oh, throw a no, no. Time to take a look at some early sleepers for the 2018 season. Scott has a couple of guys named Austin. Heath's got a catcher, a couple of second baseman, and a starting pitcher for you to consider. One of those second basemen will be shortstop eligible. We love shortstop eligible. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today, three per week,

and then eventually four and then eventually five. And your email is at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Scott White is here. Hello, Scott White. Hello to you, Adam Azer. He was kind of bowing when he said that. Like, that was very nice of you. Appreciate that.

Yes, yes. And he... The little hand gesture, the little like tip of the cap without the cap. Right. And Heath Cummings is here. Hello, Heath. You know, we have a pre-show meeting before every show. We just had our best pre-show meeting ever, so I assume we're going to have our best show ever.

We 100% do not have a pre-show meeting before every show. Is that what you'd call that? That was a pre-show meeting. We have a mic check. I called Heath the antagonist of my life story. Yeah. That was the highlight. It was a good story.

It was a good story. Yeah. All right, so we'll give you four names from Scott, four names from Heath to consider as some early sleepers subject to change, but our first round of sleepers. And you can read them on the website on CBSports.com slash fantasy. Heath Sleepers are out. Scott just released some tiers at each position, so that's good stuff. We're helping you get ready for your draft. Also, a first for this year.

top 100 players in dynasty leagues. That just came out last night. All right. So be sure to check that out. Very cool. And we're going to start doing mock drafts two per week, and those will be available on the website as well. And we'll talk about a lot of them on the show, and we'll do some on the air as well. So before we get into the sleepers, we got to talk about the pitch clock.

MLB could in-state a 22nd pitch clock and limit mound visits this year. I want to know how you guys feel that will affect. fantasy, but you can only talk one at a time and you only have 20 seconds to make each point. We need more pitch clocks on this podcast. When you get mad about something, you've got a 20-second, air quotes, pitch clock. Is this, are you on the clock right now? That's your take? Yes. Okay, that was. All your 20 seconds on that. Yeah. Well, I have no idea how it's going to affect pitchers, but I wasn't thinking it was going to be a big deal because 20 seconds seems like a long time, especially, like we know from doing video.

No, no, no, I've got this. 20 seconds is an eternity for somebody to just sit there and yammer on. So for somebody to do nothing but take time between pitches, it seems like a long time. But I saw that Orodez chat in average 30 seconds between pitches last year. That's a big difference, 20 and 30. You've already been pulled from the game because you didn't even get your first pitch off in time. I think this is going to be, yeah, that's ball one for Scott. I think this is going to be helpful for hitters, especially the mound visit portion of it.

I think there's going to be a lot of signs stealing. Pitchers and catchers are paranoid about it, and rightfully so. And I think with runners in scoring position, pitchers are going to do worse, and this will help offense. That's what we need. The reason I saw how long Chapman took, and 30 seconds was obviously on the long end between pitches. But I saw a theory that maybe he won't be able to reach back and throw as hard as consistently if he doesn't have. have that time in between pitches, which I don't know. That seems a little far-fetched to me, but I'm not an expert in pitching mechanics.

Maybe it's not. Yeah, recovery time is real. I also wonder if it's going to help base dealers, because I know you can reset the clock by stepping off or by throwing over, but, you know, if the pitch clock is up to 18 or 19 seconds, does the base dealer have an edge? I'm not sure about that. Well, wouldn't you just, you could step off at 18 just as you could pitch at 18. You can or you can throw over.

I don't know. Just kind of a... I kind of think it's a good thing, though, you know? Like, I mean, I understand it's going to... It may adversely affect some players. Maybe not. Maybe that's overstated. They've been doing this in the minors, right?

Yes. Yes. So, you know, I don't... I haven't heard about a pitcher whose stats have dramatically suffered because of it. But like I said, 30 seconds of... That's a lot. It is an eternity. in the broadcasting world, and that's basically 30 seconds of dead air, just the guy's pacing around on a mound.

All right, cool. I think we cover that. And we'll see what happens. It'll be pretty interesting. I don't think we're going to change anyone's fantasy value, but maybe Chapman would be somebody to keep an eye on. The Mets don't expect Michael Conforto back from shoulder surgery until May. Meanwhile, Yasmani Tomas was arrested for reckless driving and criminals speeding. Yasmani miles per hour, Tomas problem.

Between Conforto and Yasmati Tomas, are you drafting either of these guys in, say, a five outfielder league? Well, certainly Conforto. The upside is just too high. And, you know, if it's really just the case of him missing a month of the season, Tommy Pham missed a month of last season for non-injury reasons and, you know, still ended up being a great fantasy asset. But obviously there's the additional complication of this is not a show.

This is not a procedure with a long history among Major League players and the history I could find is like great pitchers were suddenly not great anymore. Guys like Mark Pryor, guys like Johan Santana. Sean Marshall, you may remember, was an elite reliever back in the day until he signed a big contract and was toast because of this injury. But again, they were all pitchers. and I think this was anterior. Conforto's injury was anterior versus posterior. I may have that backwards, but it was, you know, slightly different spot. Well, it was on the opposite spot, not a slightly different spot.

Well, there's still the question of are the Mets going to play him every day? Oh, I think if he's healthy, they will. He's their best hitter. In theory, he's definitely their best hitter against righties. Yeah, he is terrible against lefties, and we know that can really, hinder a player's fantasy value. Now, he did have some pop against lefties last year. Even more reason for concern.

Yeah. Like, I want to draft him, you said a five outfielder league. I have him like in the number, in the four outfield range. So even in a three outfielder league, he's probably being drafted, but not until late. Okay. So that's Conforto. Now, as far as Tomas goes, he's 27 years old, he had a groin injury, and then he had core surgery last year, which was bad.

It was a 241 year with eight homers and 47 games. 2016, he was the number 32 outfielder in points, number 24 in Roto. And that was with Tomas playing only 140 games. If he had played 155 games, which is usually what I try to do, like a full season is 155. Not that many players play 162. He would have been a top 24 outfielder in both formats. He hit 31 homers. And that's basically all he did.

But still, the guys got some pop. Tomas, is he, I mean, this is a sleeper show? Is Tomas a sleeper? Absolutely. Because I would guess he once again isn't going to get drafted until the very end of a draft in a five outfielder league. I don't expect him to be drafted in a lot of three outfielder leagues. And he absolutely has the potential to repeat what he did two years ago. Yeah, he could be a big homer guy.

I don't know that he has much potential beyond that. And I worry about the playing time for him, too, because there is a crunch there with Chris Owings and Brandon Drury. And obviously they have Cattel Marte. and who is there. There's somebody I'm forgetting. Between the outfield and the middle infield spots, they have too many players, and Tomas could get swept up. But he's a better hitter than all the rest of those guys.

In theory, maybe. Not all of them. In actuality, so far in their career. I don't know. I don't know if I agree with that. It's pretty close. Here's one more thing about Yasmani Tomas, other than terrible team names involving Yosmani Tomas.

If they do install a humidor, and I did a little Google search last night, and didn't see anything. If they do, he actually has been pretty good on the road. He's had more or less even splits. Now, not last year. Last year, he was dreadful on the road and great at home, but he only played 23 home games, 24 road games. His first two seasons, the home road splits were pretty even.

So he has, you know, legit power. Now I'll give you some other news items, and you tell me real quick, if they matter. San Francisco signed Austin Jackson to a two-year, $6 million deal. He'll be their center fielder. in theory. They're starting center fielder. Nope.

So it matters. Not in a mixed league sense, but he was good as a part-timer last year. Yeah. Okay. And only Austin Jackson. I wonder if they're also looking to get somebody like Dyson and just run a platoon in center field. Yeah, maybe.

I can't imagine they're going to start Austin Jackson every day against right-handed pitching. And the Blue Jays acquired Randall Gritchick from St. Louis for pitcher Dominic Leone. That could be a sleeper. Yeah. Which one? Gritchick or? Gritchick. Oh, okay.

Yeah, I don't think it's going to be, because they just signed Granderson before that. Obviously, Granderson bats lefty, Gritchick bats righty. They have Steve Pierce hanging around there, too, and to Oscar Hernandez. And then, of course, Kevin Pilar and Center. So I'd be surprised if Gritchick played every day, but he'll probably play similarly to what he did last year for the Cardinals. 420 a back guy with, you know, good power source in AL-only leagues. All right. And Devin Travis expects to begin running within a month.

Travis had knee surgery last year. That's the Blue Jays' second baseman. And they also have Yon Hervis Salarte. But, you know, I mean, Travis is a guy that's been interesting in fantasy. He hit 300 each of his first two seasons. He hasn't played a full season yet. Is he on your radar, Devin Travis? Does he get drafted?

No. Middle infield? It'd have to be a league with a middle-in field spot. And even then it's questionable. I think it almost has to be an AL-only league. Okay. Well, the Brewers made an offer to U. Darvish. The Cubs are in active talks with U.

Darvish, so hopefully sometime soon we will be able to talk about U. Darvish in his new destination. Time for some sleepers. All right, we'll go one for Scott, one for Heath, one for Heath, et cetera. And we got a couple of catchers. Scott's got Austin Barnes. Heath has Evan Gaddis.

Scott, you can begin with Dodgers catcher, Austin Barnes. So Austin Barnes, to live up to his sleeper appeal, something's going to have to happen to Yasmati Grandal, right? Like, I don't think if he's on the Dodgers roster, he's going to be strictly a backup, even though that was the role he was playing in the postseason. If Austin Barnes, though, is able to be the Dodgers primary catcher able to start five games a week or so, I think you're talking about an elite player. fantasy. Just look at the numbers he put up as mainly a reserve last year, 218 at bat, some more at bats than most reserves, but he had a 408 on-base percentage, nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He slugged 486, and these were numbers. He was putting up similar plate discipline numbers with comparable power in the miners. If you take just the games he started,

Austin Barnes last year and that was about half of his appearances were starts so obviously you're eliminating the minimal impact of the games when he was coming in his reserve just his starts fantasy points per game last year Austin Barnes averaged

exactly what Gary Sanchez as a starter so he's a catcher like I you know 12 team one catcher league he's a guy I'm happy to take very late after the name catchers go off the board and two catcher leagues.

Probably can't wait as late for him, but I think the upside is enough that he's somebody I'm targeting there to, and I'd be fine taking him as my top catcher in those leagues. I'd be even more excited if Grandal gets traded, but I think there will be enough playing time for him to matter, Barnes, even if he

doesn't. Really? Okay. My concern, and I agree with everything Scott said. My concern is the Dodgers have made some moves acting like they would like to maybe get under the luxury tax for once. And I don't know why with Austin Barnes on the roster, they gave Yesmani Grandeau $8 million to avoid arbitration.

I would think they would have tried to deal him before having to do that. Like, that's not nothing. And that's a lot for a backup catcher, even for the Dodgers. So who's the starter, though? Who do you think starts the more games? I think it's a platoon right now. Yeah, I mean, well, based on the way the postseason win, Barnes was, Barnes started almost every postseason game. So clearly he's in the driver's seat there.

Now, I think Yosemani Grundal, they think he's worth $8 million a year. Obviously, he has a history of being a good hitter. They can't just let him waste away on the bench. Right. So it would probably be one guy starts, you know, it might be three games for one. three games for the other a week, you know, both playing three games a week. I would give the edge slightly to Barnes, but clearly there's not enough at bats to go around at that position, which is why I hope they find a taker for Grundahl.

And, you know, maybe they just didn't get an offer they liked before the arbitration deadline. It wouldn't be unheard of for a team to go through that process with the player and then trade him. Sure. You're kind of at the mercy of the calendar with that. Let's get a trade here. You can't have two good catchers.

They're in high demand. You know, let's get a trade. And I think, you know, unfortunately, look at the splits. It might make more sense for them to just sit Grundal against lefties, which would be bad for us. I think he'll definitely sit against lefties. It's how many of those played appearances against Ritees does Barnes get. All right. Sorry, yeah, go ahead.

If they trade Grundal or if he disappears somehow, then, yeah, Barnes could be a top six, top seven catcher. All right, let's go over to Evan Gattis then. Evan Gattis can be a top what catcher, Heath? He's my number three catcher. I think he could be a top one catcher, is the upside for Evan Gattis. The expectation that I have is, and that the Astros have communicated so far, is that Evan Gattis will be the primary designated hitter this year. I don't know how much he's going to catch.

I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't catch enough to be catcher eligible in 2019. And I'm perfectly fine for that for this year, because that should mean more plate appearances. don't think it necessarily means that Evan Gattis plays every single day. Most players don't play every single day. I do think what happened in 2015 when he got 566 at bats is possible. It's within his ceiling. And if he does that, we've already seen. He was the number two catcher in fantasy that year.

He's got the potential to lead the position at home runs. He's in the best offense in baseball. He'll have the potential to lead the position at RBI. You've got him third. Scott has him seventh. Where do you have him in Roto, Scott? I think sixth. Okay.

So what's your concern? Because it does seem like if Evan Gattis does what Evan Gattis can do and gets 500 at bats, I think he's going to finish. Yeah, I don't really think he'll get 500 at bats. I definitely don't think he'll get 566. Okay. He'll probably get more than last year. Obviously, he missed some time with injury last year.

But I'm thinking more in that $450 range for Gattis because it's, if they make Gattis their everyday D.H. That means Marwin Gonzalez is their everyday left fielder. And that's a waste of Marwin Gonzalez's versatility. So A.J. Hinch expressed in December, back in December, the idea that he'll probably have a rotating D.H. Gattis, obviously, the primary D.H. They're more often than not. But anytime someone around infield or anyone, any other other hitters. Needs a quote-unquote day off. Stick him in DH.

Have Marvin Gonzalez fill that spot. You're taking advantage of Gonzalez's versatility. You're keeping everybody fresh and healthy. And that would come at the expense of Gattis. I mean, obviously, Gattis is a quality fantasy option. I have him ranked as such. He deserves to be drafted ahead of Austin Barnes. Barnes playing time concerns are much clearer than Gattis's.

But I think ranking him third, is assuming a lot. Okay. Well, maybe he... Well, you said 450 at Bats is what your expectation is. He was fourth when he got 450 just two years ago, right? Fourth and Roto and fifths and points.

He also had 32 home runs in those 450 at Bats. It was kind of been... It was the very best he's ever done power-wise, and last year was the very worst he's ever done power-wise. So, I mean, you know, I don't think even... If he gets 450 a bat's 30 home runs, even 25 home runs is a slam dunk, I think it's possible. But there's just not as much security from Gattis as I would like. And frankly, I think the upside of Wilson Contreras is higher.

Wilson Contreras is a better all-around hitter. Well, Gattis is mainly just, you know, a slugger. Okay. All right. Let's move on. Heath will go to another Heath sleeper. Cesar Hernandez. He played in 128 games, and he was the number of nine.

number 18 second baseman in points, number 21 in Roto. And what do you like about Cesar Hernandez? Why is he a sleeper? Can we just replay the tape from what I said last year? Yeah. I think he was on my sleeper list last year. And listen, for the first two months of the season, he was the best second basement in fantasy. And he got hurt, and he wasn't as good after that.

But he's still a guy that I expect to get 600 played appearances. He's going to hit lead off in front of a much improved lineup, 100. If he plays all season long, which, yes, he was hurt for a short period last year, but he had a pretty good track record of health before that. He plays all season long. I expect him over 600 played appearances. I expect over 100 runs, 15 to 20 stolen bases. Very solid middle infielder, at least.

Okay. And he's going to, like, he won't even be drafted in some leagues. The only thing I'll say about Hernandez, though, is it wasn't really two months of him being great. It was 24 games of him having a 930 OPS. And then his next 34 games, he had a 592 OPS, and then he missed time with an injury. But he finished really strong. I mean, post-All-Star break, 308, 403, 440. And 440 is like a huge slugging percentage for Cesar Hernandez.

But is he just kind of a roto guy? You get good batting average, steals runs. You're not... I mean, I think he could also be not a terrible option in points just because of how many plate appearances I expect him to get. He actually is better in points because he doubles. and it triples. And he's a great on base guy. He's been over 370, 2 years in a row.

Yeah, it's true. It's just the points leagues tend to be shallower. Right. Yeah, points would be Cesar Hernandez's better format. And in Roto, a guy who's hit 294, two years in a row with a really good OVP, 370, right around there. Yeah, and six. I mean, the thing about Hernandez for me is, like, second base is so deep in that range in the Cesar Hernandez range, players who are not studs. But, you know, they're fine starters in fantasy.

For instance, I mean, Ian Kinsler had a bad year, a year bad enough that I rank him 12th at the position, 2.96 points per game. That's still more than what Seza Hernandez averaged last year, 2.91. You know, you have Starling Castro, who I don't think any of us are jazzed about. He averaged 2.81. But not far off from what Hernandez did. I think the Kinsler thing is interesting because, like, you rank him 12th. He is going to turn 36 years old this year. Cesar Fernandez basically did the same thing he did.

295 and 291 is... It was very close production. Basically the same thing. So it's just a matter of do you view what Kinsler did last year as him, you know, the start of this precipitous decline, or was it just an off year? Well, it better not be the start of precipitous decline. He has to be better than he was last year, right? Well, he hit 22 home runs.

That's the thing like Hernandez can't do that. What I'm saying is basically my number 10 second. Baseman, DJ LaMayhew, and the number 22 second baseman, which is actually Hernandez. So a range of 13 second baseman there, their production on a per game basis was close to equivalent last year. Rugnett-Odor was, you know, you had Rugnett-Odor and Jason Kipness, who were much worse than the rest of the group, but there's reasons why you'd rank them higher than they performed last year.

So, you know, Cesar Hernandez, I think. think he's safe, he's solid. If you want to wait till the last round to draft your second baseman, you could do a lot worse than him. He might be fine for you there, but he's, like, I don't think he's capable of being a standout at the position, and there are, you know, some more from that group that I'd rather have instead. All right, but just to say something about the points per game, some guys are going to be

better, you know, like Ian Kinsler, I'm imagining, where did he? finish in points leagues. Was he better in points than Roto? Because he had a pretty good walk-to-strike-out ratio, and that helps. But he had a terrible batting average, 236, and only 14 steals. So maybe Sazar would be better in Roto than Kinsler. I mean, obviously, Kinsler has a higher power ceiling. I would expect Hernandez to hit for a better average, and the steals should be comparable.

Then let's go to a second basement for Scott. Scooter! Jeanette, Mr. Four-home row. Guns, Scooter Jeanette. Yeah, that's actually who I, one of the ones who I think has, in that group who I think has upside to, you know, be an actual stud or close to it at the position. He basically was last year, so I'm a little surprised he's going as late as he's going. I mean, he's a late round pick definitively.

I think he's going outside the top 200 and fantasy pros averaging all the writers who have rankings out so far. So, you know, I'm one of the highest of that group. I'm one of the ones pulling that ranking up. And the reason why is because where Scooter Jeanette entered the fantasy stage was when that four homer game last year, I think it was June 17th. Four homers, obviously a crazy game, obviously a big part of his production last year. But if you just take the next day, so eliminating the four homer game, we're not even including it, the next day after that four-homer game to the end of the season last year, Scooter Jeanette averaged 3.3 fantasy points per game, which would have been, which would have tied him for Witt and Merrifield for fifth most at the

position. And that's not including the game that put him in the spotlight, the one that, you know, you could argue his entire season was built on that four-homer game. We're not even including that. And he was tied for fifth best on a per-game basis. By the end of the year, he was an everyday I expect that to be the case now, especially with Zach Cozart out of the picture. So I'd be happy with him as my starting second basement, and you can get him really late. Okay, let me give the cumulative numbers. After the four-homer game, you heard the points per game, but it was 94 games after the four-homer game.

He batted 293 with 20 home runs, 67 RBIs. He had an 860 OPS, Scooter Jeanette, 25 walks to 84 strikeouts. stole just three bases, so you're not going to get that. But 94 games with an 860 OPS, and Jeanette finished as a top 15 second baseman, despite only playing about 140 games. And a lot of that was at a reserve, as a reserve in the beginning. Right. So, yeah, and then obviously can't just completely discount the four homer games.

That's 24 home runs in 95 games. It's pretty damn good. Heath, any beef with Scooter, Jeanette? I mean, we are talking about a guy who's been very disappointing for much of his career. I guess that's the whole thing And that's what often Scott and I end up going back and forth about Is what a guy did last year Versus what he's been his entire career

And I could understand that case more Not to steamroll you But I could understand the case more If Jeanette was like a 10th round pick You know if he was being drafted at face value But he was worthless in fantasy baseball up until 2017 It was four years of nine not worth being drafted.

Okay. And so I think I may have him a little too low because I don't think I have him being drafted. And so there's a 60% chance. I think that's who he is. But I should probably account for the 30% chance that he gives us 80% what he did last year. I don't think there's much chance that Scooter Jeanette is a 236 ISO guy again, considering his career high was 149 coming into last year. I don't think there's much chance he has a 3%.

40 babib again. I think there's less than 0% chance he drives in 97 runs again. But I should account for the fact that maybe he could hit 20 home runs with 80 RBI next year, and that would be serviceable as a middle infielder. Now, Scott, let me ask you this because I know this is something that you've harped on for years. A guy who can't hit lefties is tough to trust in a mixed league. and that's why Jake Lamb might get overdrafted. You've got to be exceptional against Ritey's,

and Jeanette was. He slugged 571 against Ritees last year. He batted 248 with a 404 slugging percentage against lefties. So does that mean that he could become a platoon player? Does that mean that he... What does that mean to you, I guess, is the question? You know, I really worry about the guys who bet, like, 170 against lefties more than the ones who hit 240.

and, you know, it would also be a concern if the Reds had a plan in place to platoon. If they kept Cozart around and they were trying to find out, that's for Parazzo, oh, maybe he's going to steal some against, from Jeanette, against lefties. But I think Jeanette hit well enough to convince the Reds that he could be an everyday player. He was down the stretch last year. And that's part of the reason they were willing to let Cozart walk. Well, that and they're not really trying to win right now. Well, but what was funny about Cozart is he didn't get a qualifying offer.

As good of a season as he had, as good as a defensive shortstop as he always is, he didn't get a qualifying offer from the Reds. That was among qualifying offer news, that was the biggest to me. I do think there's a chance that Scooter Jeanette looks like Scooter Jeanette for the first month of the season, and all of a sudden, he's in a platoon with Dilton Herrera. Scooter Genet or Cesar Hernandez? Cesar. Scooter, I think there's demonstrably a lot more.

upside there. Scooter, Jeanette, or Starlin Castro? Jeanette. Yeah, I'll say scooter. I'm not sure those guys are low enough that I'm not sure where I have them rank, but I'll make sure scooters ahead of Castro. Jeanette or Kipnis. Kipness.

Jeanette. All right. Let's do a couple more for each. Mike Clevenger, starting pitcher for the Indians. That's a sleeper for Scott. Go ahead, Scott. Yeah. Now, obviously, there's a big concern for Clevenger.

playing time-wise, and that's kind of what makes it possible for me to call him a sleeper. Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin, they're both still kicking around there. There's a chance they push Clevenger out in spring training, and he either goes to the bullpen or even goes to the minors. But I don't think it'd be for long, because I think he's the best of those three. And, you know, just the year he had last year, I'd be surprised if the Indians didn't think he was one of their best five pitchers going into the new season. 311 ERA in 21 starts, 27 appearances overall.

What really gets me excited about Clevenger, though, is 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. That's not just a pretty good strikeout pitcher. That is one of the best strikeout starting pitchers in the majors, and it's supported by one of the best swinging strikes in the majors. By those two measurements, Clevenger is elite. he has some control issues but I think when you're missing that many bats as he showed last year you're still capable of being a plus fantasy option

even with those walks and I think there's a chance he gets better as far as that goes he wasn't always a 4.5 walk guy in the minors I think I don't think he's going to get burned too badly by home runs but really it's the strikeouts just the fact that he's an elite strikeout

out pitcher who is already shown he can navigate his way through a major league line for two-thirds of a season. That suggests to me he's somebody I want, whether it's Salazar imploding, getting hurt, or the Indians just deciding right away, Clevenger is one of the best we have. Okay, so that's Mike Clevenger, and would you draw comparisons to Robbie Ray? Robbie Ray actually set a career high with walk rate last year and yet had his best season. top 15 fantasy pitcher. I had a 289 ERA.

He went 15 and 5. And he only had a 1.15 whip. I'm assuming Babbeth had a lot to do with that. He had a 6.4 hits per 9. But, yeah, like a lead bat misser with control problems. And the control didn't get any better. And yet, Robbie Ray still had his breakout season. You know who you could compare him to?

Who? Danny Salazar. Oh, yeah? Like, he looks a lot like Danny Salazar. Yeah, but you know what? I had real durability concerns about Salazar coming into last year that I think we're validated. You correctly predicted his injury.

Yes. I don't have those concerns with Clevenger. I mean, Clevenger's never thrown more than 158 innings in his professional career. Salazar threw 185. I think there's a lot of similarities. I'm not disagreeing with Clevenger as a sleeper because he's going to be drafted later than Salazar. Okay. Should we move on?

Next guy? Sure. Yeah. All right. Let's go to Heath's starting pitcher. Carlos Rodan. I was interested. I was surprised to see him on here, since he's unlikely to be ready for the start of the season, arthroscopic shoulder surgery.

And he was hurt during spring training last year and didn't debut until June 28th. So, all right, tell me why Carlos Rodan at 25 years old is a sleeper, Heath. Do you hear everything that Scott said about Clevenger? I did, yes. Okay. Elite strikeout pitcher with control problems. The biggest thing for Carlos Rodon is first he's got to get it. healthy and he is going to be drafted towards the very end of the draft he's worth if he's going to

start the year on the dL a dL stash to start the year but he does have the ability to strike out ten batters per nine he was at nine point nine in 2017 he needs to improve his change up he's got to get a little better at getting right-handed hitters out but this guy is the limit still for carlos rodon and you can get him in the last couple of rounds of the draft there is a coming off shoulder surgery, he could miss like half the season. Otherwise, I'd rank him higher. Because, yeah, I agree with the upside aspect of Carlos. I don't really, yeah, and I don't, again, you don't worry too much about risk with somebody

you're taking in the 20th round. Yeah, I mean, that's kind of true. But then again, there are a lot of players in the 20th round that are exciting. So you do still have to, like, I totally get it. I think Rodon is exciting. Okay. You would have to have a DL spot to stash. him in, which most leagues do.

Yeah. Okay, cool. So that's Carlos Erdan, and then Heath's last sleeper that we're going to give away on the show. You can read more on the website is Raul Monashy. You didn't think there wouldn't be a royal here, right? Of course. There are actually more royals in my bust column than in my sleepers call. Ah, okay.

So you're turning on them. Yes. Kansas City second basement, but he will be shortstop eligible after week one. Raul Mondesi, 22 years old. Great AAA numbers. hasn't done much in the majors, but this is the year, right, Heath? Well, this could be the year, and that could be is worth a shot at the very end of your draft because his ADP is almost non-existent even in Roto leagues.

And yes, he has 209 played appearances in the major leagues, almost a full third of a season, where he looked like the worst hitter in baseball. He's also a 22-year-old that was a consensus top 25, top 30 prospect two years ago that probably got rushed a little bit. And it looks like, if you look at his 391 plate appearances in AAA last year, he figured things out with the bat just a little bit. A slash line of 289, 32513 in the minors. And I believe that was the Fall League as well.

So, yeah, he has 30 steel potential. He showed a little bit of pop. The Royals aren't likely to be playing for anything, so they have no reason to do anything other than give him 500 plate appearances and see what happens. That's Rao Mondesie. All right, I have to say it. I have to say the three big letters, PCL. Yeah, I mean, he did crush it in the PCL.

He didn't before that, but he was very, very young. I mean, is PCL now more of an offensive environment than Major League Baseball? Probably. Are they using the same juiced balls? Well, I mean, I don't know, but I feel like you can really only compare minor league numbers against other minor league numbers. And while Mondesies were very good last year, it was in a hitter-friendly league. That's worth taking into account. And look, I like keeping an open mind on players who have ability.

And clearly from his prospect rankings, it's obvious Mondesi has some ability. There's not a lot of evidence otherwise. Last year was the first kind of glimmer at AAA that, yeah, there may be something here with the bat. He also had a pretty good spring. And I would disagree with last year being the first year there was a glimmer because in 2016 in the minors, he put up a 790 OPS at 20 years old moving between three different levels and stole 24 bases and 52 games

It's pretty good. Very efficient base dealer in the miners I've noticed. It's a sleeper in the truest sense because it's kind of just like a Hail Mary. I haven't seen much for Mondesi to make me think he could be an asset for my fantasy team next year as major league numbers are awful. You know Adam normally I don't like investing in those horrid plate discipline guys.

And, you know, last year in the majors, 22 strikeouts, three walks for Mondesy. That's, you know, that's, that's, he definitely is not a disciplined player. That was bad in the minors, too, 18 walks, 86 strikeouts in the PCL. Yeah, he's always going to be that. But there's some ability here. And I've been playing fantasy long enough to know that sometimes that guy just blows up. I mean, that's kind of what happened to Aaron Judge last year. It wouldn't be as dramatic as if it happened for Ronald Mondesie.

But to a certain extent, I didn't love Judge at this point last year. I thought he struck out too much. I got him like in the 30th round of the Tout Wars draft, which was a 15-te-te-team league. Like, not a lot of people were that excited about Aaron Judge, and he nearly is the ALMVP. So, you know, I don't know that Mondese quite has MVP potential, but second baseman who you at least know he can run. Right. Shortstop. I don't disagree with this assessment. I can't see doing it in a mixed league, but there's upside here.

Yeah, and yes, he is a second baseman, Rawhom Monashy, but we'll have shortstop eligibility. Oh, right, right, yeah. So that's huge. He'll be playing shortstop, so, yeah. All right, finally, last sleeper here, another Austin. Scott says Austin Hayes, Orioles outfielder. Yeah, so on the other side of the coin, a guy who has put up ridiculous minor league numbers, and that's, you know, kind of the extent of my own.

argument last year between high class a and double a and his numbers were virtually identical at those two spots 64 games at each 16 home runs at each nearly a 330 batting average to each so 32 home runs total and 523 of bats in the minors for austin hayes last year he was you know one of the top three or four minor leaguers in terms of home runs not you know there's not many 30 homer guys in the minors ever so that's impressive on its own the fact that he hit 330 while doing it with the kind of strikeouts rate that would suggest, yeah, he's a guy who should hit for average. This looks like the kind of all-around hitter that should get fantasy owner salivating. And he's in line for the starting right field job for Baltimore. And we've talked about how outfields, you know, gets thin pretty quickly. I'm surprised there's not more attention being given to Austin Hayes than there is. You know, baseball in America just released their top 100 prospects yesterday. and Austin Hayes, I believe, was in the top 20.

He was like 16th or something like that. So it's not like it's just a guy who's mashing in the minors and nobody believes in the skills. He has a job waiting for him, and he looks like he's just a crazy good hitter, who I'm going to be happy taking as my fifth outfielder. I just read the prospect story this morning. I already forgot who number one was.

I know Otani was two. In baseball America, yes. Yeah, who is number one? They went Ronald Acuna over. Ocuna. Right. Over O'Tani, which I don't think many publications will do. I didn't do that with my top 100, which is, you know, obviously a little more geared toward fantasy owners. But, you know, I think it's kind of obvious to call a Coonia sleeper at this point.

I'm not sure anybody's sleeping on him. Right. But they are sleeping on Austin Hayes. They seem to be. On Austin Hayes, yeah. Well, it's early and it's January. So these guys won't be sleepers for long. It's hard to really have true sleepers these days.

There are so many people writing and publications and podcasts and all that stuff. But I think if you listen to this podcast in January, you're going to know more about these players. You're going to have time to do your own research if you want. You're going to hear it first. And maybe you do some early drafts and have a leg up. We're going to do some early draft. We've got a draft later today. How about that?

Yeah. Have you guys seen the Zach Morris's trash series? No. No. People keep asking me if this. I've had two or three people ask me if I'm singing the Zach Morris is trash. No, I'm not, but thank you. I'm flattered.

But they're funny. Go on YouTube and search for Zach Morris's Trash. You'll enjoy them. You ready for emails? I couldn't be any more ready for email. Good, good. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. This is from Bill.

I just read a report that David Doll should be healthy and ready to go for spring training. Given this information, what can a realistic expectation be for? David Dahl, fantasy-wise. How high would you draft him in a 12-te-to-head league? Can I get a realistic expectation for how many played appearances he's going to get? Uh-huh. What is your expectation? No, I'm asking for it.

Oh, you're asking for it. I'm just not sure there's an opening for him is the thing. I think he's super talented. Obviously, I like the potential that Corsfield presents him or any hitter with that kind of skill. But Blackman, Desmond, Parra, Tapia. Yeah, Tapia is still hanging around there too, even if Parra gets bumped to first base. They've talked about maybe bringing back Mark Reynolds, so I don't think they're done yet, adding to the corner infield, outfield situation.

And I just think Dahl's going to have to prove himself in the minors first. And then you have to wonder, yeah, he's healthy now, but the way he suffered with this rib issue last year, like, Can we ever be completely sure it's in the rearview mirror? Or is it something that's going to keep popping up? Because he thought at times last year he started rehabbing and then it flared up again. To be clear, to answer the question, I'm not drafting him currently in a 12-te-to-headleague. They have to be five outfielder. I could see doing it like your fifth outfielder or certainly in a bench on a bench in that format.

But yeah, he may not be up until June if he's up at all. Parr is a singles hitter, man. Let's get him. Let's get him out. Well, definitely has a higher ceiling than Parra. But I just think Parra is going to get preferential treatment opening the year. Well, that would be Parra for the course. Hey, oh, let's go to Coat.

Is Coat or Cody? C-O-T-E. How would you pronounce that? Coat. Cody. Okay. Thanks, guys. There's the Miami Herald writer Greg Cody, who spells it the same way. That's true. Well, this is the first name, though. Completely different. Changes everything.

Sure. Cody, Coat says, keep four at these rounds. Scherzer in the first I think we can eliminate that one Aronado in the first All right, I'm not going to eliminate anybody I'll let you do that Shurzer and Aronado in the first

Granky in the 8th Ooh, good Gary Sanchez in the 25th Reese Hoskins Last round Dini Gagorius, last round Jonathan Scope 20th round

And Luke Weaver Last round Why do people think I'm singing The Zach Morris? I saw. That would give them that a pressure. So to recap, Scherzer and Aeronado in the first, Granky in the 8th, Gary Sanchez in the 25th, Hoskins and Luke Weaver in the last round, Jonathan Scope in the 20th. We need four of them.

Sanchez and Hoskins are two easiest. Right. Yep. I think you've got to keep Aeronado in the first. That's kind of what I thought, too, yeah. I'd probably keep Grinky. Grinky over Scope in the 20th? Yep.

But I don't like scope as much as you do I don't love scope Because I think the upside Was kind of maxed out last year On a per game basis It wasn't that different It was only a little better than Seazar Hernandez So scope is kind of

Fifth in my second base rankings Just because somebody has to be And that's good value for him Round 20 But I agree Grinke's the more impactful player So the eighth round is enough of a discount So are you only discarding Luke Weaver and let's say D-D

because you already took Hoskins in the last round and figure you can't keep two guys in that round? No. No, they're just... It's about impact. Like, you have to weigh discount, but even more important than discount is impact. What kind of impact can this player make for me? And Gregorius and Weaver, I think there are a lot of

comparables out there. Okay. This is from Ryan and St. Louis. Dear Ronnie, Little Stephen, and Donnie. Are those the Van Zants? I don't know. Could be. That'd be a good call. When I heard this Walt Whitman quote today, I couldn't help but think of Chris Towers.

Quote, why are there trees I never walk under but large melodious thoughts descend upon me? End quote. So beautiful. Is there ever going to be a time when you hear Walt Whitman and not think Breaking Bad? No, of course not. Is that ever going to happen? That was the Van Zance, by the way. Way to go.

And, no, that's never going to happen, not for me. I'm going with the strategy of hoping to get one solid ace in my 15-team Roto League, hopefully, too, and was hoping I could give you some names, and you guys tell me if you view them as 2, 3, 4, or bench guys. So you say 2, 3, 4, or a bench. Danny Duffy. Bench. Wait, what? This is part where he's in our pitching staff?

Is he a number 2 and number 3 and number 4 or a bench? I'm going to say Three Duffy Three bench And he says bench Look he's down on another royal About that

Kevin Gossman Bench Bench Bench Blake Snell Four Blake Snell could be anywhere from two to bench

He could be anywhere from two To not in your roster I like The possibilities for Blake Snell I'll say I'll say four. Julio 3 Ron. I don't agree with me.

Julio Taran is on your bench. Bench? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Andrew from Queens. I think Andrew is wrong on what he's about to say or what I'm about to say for him, but let's read it anyway. I heard Scott mentioned he pours milk on his cereal, eats the cereal, and then throws the bowl of milk down the drain.

This isn't what everyone else is doing, right? and this seems incredibly wasteful, Scott should consider his carbon footprint. Wasn't that Chris? Yeah. I think it was Chris. But you do that too? This isn't the first time people have confused Chris and I

with things we've said. But yes, I do that too. So clearly, he is not the only one doing that. You know, when I was a kid, I used to like, you know, if I was eating Count Chocula or whatever, and it made the milk brown and chocolate, I'd tip the milk up and drank it. But, like, what do you?

There's something very, like as an adult you can't do that i do that every time i have a bowl of cereal i do that that's just so like milk is good for you yeah like i feel like i'd have to pull out a glass and pour it in the glass and then drink it turn the bowl plus by that point the milk is close to room temperature and that's always kind of icky no it's full of sugar it's delicious and drink it straight out of the bowl all right so would you do that like try a little harder to keep the kid inside of it Right, let's say you're not eating Count Chocula, though. Okay.

Let's say... I don't ever eat Count Chocula, so that's easy to imagine. Let's say you're eating Raisin Brand. I can't imagine that environment. All right, well, something like that. Something flaky. Something where for sure you're not going to be able to scoop out every little piece of it. It's going to be chunky.

Oh, yeah, that's the best. Life? Like shredded wheat? Shredded wheat? Sure. You eat shredded wheat and there's all the little wheat in there and you just... Oh, yeah. Do you tip up the bowl and drink it at him?

I don't eat cereal anymore, really. But if I did, no, I wouldn't do that. because I actually think that the milk is gross. I think that the cereal-laced milk is gross. The sugary milk, like, no, absolutely not. Also, I just set off my Siri by saying the word cereal, so that was weird. No, I don't do it. I would also throw it down the drain, and I apologize about the carbon footprint.

Yeah, I hate wasting food, but milk has such a short shelf life. Right. I mean, do you always finish the full carton of milk anyway? I don't know for your email, Andrew. I don't drink milk, but, yes, my wife finishes the full cart. No, I don't. I drink water. I drink water.

What do you eat, Adam? I drink water 99% of the time I drink water. Okay. The only time I can remember recently not having a water was I had a glass of milk with a cookie not too long ago. And I was nervous at my wedding, like before we went out there and was sitting in the groomsman suite or whatever. I was nervous. And I needed something to settle my stomach. So most people would have like scotch or something.

Whiskey, yeah. I had a glass of Pepsi, and it called me down. Oh, yes. The carbonation helped. That's it. All right, moving on. Yeah. Go ahead.

Moving on. This is from James and Fort Worth. Dear Ricky, Ron, Brennan, and Frank. Will Ferrell rolls. That's right. Just listen to the best league type debate. I came up with a system two years ago for a Roto League playoffs. It's a 14-team Keeper Auction League.

Six teams get in the playoffs. The top two seeds get a buy, and each playoff matchup is two weeks long. Essentially, we play every two-week round as its own rotisserie season. Whoever accumulates the most steals gets 14 points for the round, etc. It's 14-team league. We use CBS's player stats page and export the data, blah, blah, blah. It does take some time for them to do the calculations. But the number one seed won both years in close matchups.

We had way more league involvement. Eight teams battling for the playoffs rather than two or three for the the title. What do you think? So they go roto up until the final six weeks of the season and then they do a playoff. I think this is brilliant and simplicity. I'm surprised. This is the first I've heard of it because it just seems so straightforward. Now, I feel like the main appeal of a roto league as opposed to a head to head is you're sacrificing a little bit of in-season engagement to crown a truer winner. So you're kind of introducing that randomness that you tried all season to eliminate. Only when it matters.

Only when it matters will we take their end. But I mean, I, you know, that's kind of why I think Roto isn't the best format because I just think maintaining interest is a bigger deal in, in a game than, you know, necessarily the most rightful winner. And like you said, the first seed is won, what do you say, both years? Anyway, so it's not like it's just kind of turned things upside down. I think it's interesting. If there was a way to calculate it easier, it would be something I'd be more comfortable recommending because it sounds like a lot of work figuring out since that's not really built in. I don't know.

I don't know. Let me just say that I reject the premise of a best league type. So do the four teams that play get either 12, 10, 11? Are you asking us questions about his league? Do the four teams that play either get 11, 12, 13, or 14 points for every category since... That's a good question. You know? I guess it doesn't really matter.

It could get one... Well, I don't know. Yeah. You know what? That's interesting because if you... I think they kind of have to. Because if you made it 1, 2, 3, and 4, that really throws off the... Right.

You know, ratio... The best gets four times the amount the worst gets when it obviously, it's not like that. I don't know. I'd have to think about that. I'm not even sure what I'm saying. I agree entirely, so I'd have to think about that more. That's a complication, too, to consider.

All right, David in New York City says, Dear Roy, Mickey, and Reggie. Those sound like... Those are the greatest hitters of all time, maybe. No, I think this is Roy White, Mickey Rivers, and Reggie Jackson of the late 70s Yankees. Okay. I wasn't around then.

Five-by-five-12-team mixed roto league. We use a modified keeper format. so I can only keep two of the following. Jonathan, scope at seven. Marcel Ozuna, $7. Marcel O'Suna, $10. Robbie Ray at $10. Chris Davis with a K.

K. Kris Davis at $14. Alex Bregman at $15. So they're all between $7 and $15. It's scope at $7. Ozuna at $10. Marcelo Zuna. Robbie Ray at $10. Kris Davis at $14 and Alex Bregman at $15.

I don't like throwing back Bregman at that price, but I think you got to go Ray and Ozuna here. I agree on the Ray part. I would keep Bregman. I thought I was the high guy on Bregman and the low guy on Azuna. Nope. We learned something new every day. Also, whoever, I think it was Scott, and I'm not sure. Whoever said, why don't we just say K.Ris Davis and C.Ris Davis?

It was a brilliant, brilliant suggestion. Thank you. It was me. It wasn't Chris Towers. It was me. May. It's my season. Give me some attention.

It was me. Brett from Dayton, Ohio, says, Hey, you, Alex, and Jake. Free agent starting pitchers? Oh, Cobb, right, yes. Darvish Cobb and Areietta. 14 team categories league 10 by 10. Keep three.

I'm keeping Goldschmidt and Rizzo, who's second base eligible. Oh, does that grind my gear? Awesome. That's terrible. Awesome. Who would you keep as my third? The word keeper, Carasco, Severino, DeGrom, or Keikl.

Carrasco, Severino, de Grom, or Keikl. Severino. No hesitation. Oh, I've got some hesitation. Me too. But I might agree. Me too. Carasco, Severino.

I would keep Carrasco. I think Severino's the best, and I think he has the most years ahead of him. So for Severino. I think Carasco is the best. Really? Well, wasn't last year. Yep. So here's the thing.

I'd never want to say this because everybody knows I'm a Yankees fan, whatever. I really think Severino is the most likely player in baseball to have Tommy John surgery. Because of the innings? You worry about the innings? Because he's also the hardest thrower in the American League. Yeah? It scares me. Maybe.

Please don't happen. I really hope I'm wrong. But Scott once upon a time said that about Michael Paneda, and he was a year early, but it happened. Didn't he say that about Johnny Quedo, too? I did say that, yeah. Wait for this year when he has Tommy John. I said it about you Darvish ones that was right, but I've said it about several pitchers and have been wronged. I don't know that I deserve credit for getting it right or wrong.

It's just a guessing game. So Severino threw 209 innings last year. Is that including the postseason? Yes, which was an increase of 58, more than 33% over what he threw in 2016. Yeah, that's not that's not your. dramatic. That's pretty big. That's fairly typical. Well, I don't know. Just outside of the range where I'd feel comfortable. The guys that throw so hard, though.

Right. It's right. Like, I'd feel more comfortable if it was a little less, but it's not like he threw 100 more than he did last year. All right. Last email here is from Rick. Dear Heath, Trevor, Houston, and Brad. Are those Padres closers? Heath is crushing it. Yeah, nice work. Getting all of them. Head to Head Points Auction League, $260. budget. Keeping Harper, Bellinger, Nola, Nola, and McCuller. Harper, Bellinger, Nola, and McCullors.

Depending what part of the country you're from, you might pronounce Nola, Noler, right? My mom would say Noler, like, Brooklyn pizza. Really? Yeah. I didn't associate that with Brooklyn, but maybe. Yeah, she's not quite that severe. It would be like a quasi-R. Last keeper.

Hopkins at two bucks. Ben and Tendi at 16 or Burrios at 11. Hoskins for two, Ben and Tendi, 16, Burios 11. I'll take a $2. Hask Dong. Agreed. All right then. We are done for the day.

We're coming back tomorrow with, we're not sure yet, either breakouts or team previews, but you're going to hear breakouts and busts at some point, and team previews. Also, that'll be our next three episodes in some order. Get excited. Thanks for listening, everybody. Email us at Fantasy Base.

baseball at cbsi.com for scott white heath cummings i'm at a mazers see you wednesday