Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/23: Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts 1.0 (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 23, 2019

Heath and Scott break down Scott's sleepers, breakouts and busts. Our take on Cody Allen closing for the Angels, Asdrubal Cabrera's new home, and the Sonny Gray deal. Plus rankings disputes and the state of steals and wins categories. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. I'm Heath Cummings, your host for the day, filling in for Chris Towers, who was filling in for Scott White.

But don't worry. You're not to listen to me talk the whole time. I've got Scott why you're with you. Chris Towers was filling in for animation. Go ahead and correct me just right off the top, Scott. Thanks. Yeah, that's how you can tell your third string. No one would even get your back straight.

Scott, you said nothing's happening in baseball. We have had a whirlwind of baseball activity since we last talk to the people. We're going to talk news and notes. We're going to go over your sleepers, breakouts and bust. That's what's happening in baseball. Your sleepers breakouts and busts. We're going to talk about the steals as a category. We're going to analyze wins as a category.

We're going to go over. some emails. Before we do that, you know what Adam Azer loves more than any of those things? He loves regulating. He loves rankings disputes. He loves it. Oh, that's true. When we argue about the value of players, you hate it.

It's one of my favorite things. I've got two players here, one for head to head, one for Roto, where we don't agree. We'll go over those players, then we'll get to the news and notes. And we're going to start with Jake Bowers, a similar. situation, I think, to Andrew Benintendi where Scott's just going to tell me that I'm crazy. I have Bowers as the number 13 first baseman in points league, number 36

in the outfield. Scott hates Jake Bowers, number 27 first baseman in points league. The number 62 outfielder, he doesn't even think he should be drafted in a standard mixed league. In 2018, Bowers hit 201, with a 316 on base percentage, 384

slug, 11 home runs, 488, R B.I in 388 plate appearances. He did have a 40.5% hard contact rate. He did walk in 13.9% of his plate appearances. Unfortunately, he also struck out in 26.8.

Why do you hate Jake Bowers? Cleveland Indian, Jake Bowers. I didn't know I hated him. I thought I kind of liked him. But you have relatively speaking, I guess I would have to say I hate him. he got off to a nice start

when he reached the big leagues last year and then crashed hard at the end clearly the raise that was kind of a weird trade that got him to Cleveland from Tampa Bay because the raise got Yanti Diaz out of it

right? Who I don't think we have a lot of confidence in his offensive potential but it kind of shows you where they stood on Jake Bowers. He does have a better chance of playing every day, I think, with Cleveland than he did with Tampa Bay. And so I've bandied about the idea of moving him up a little. I like that he walks a lot.

Yeah, and that's kind of my thing is, like, if you get a guy who at age 22 makes the quality of con, and it wasn't just hard contact and everything else was normal, he had like a 15% soft contact rate. He was making good contact on a regular basis. He walks a lot. His one real problem was that he struck out way too much for his power profile. But you look at his minor league strikeout numbers, and until last year, he'd never even struck out 20% of the time over a full season. And he's also got something we haven't talked about yet is a little bit of stolen base potential.

Stole 16 bases last year between AAA and the major, stole 20 the year before in AAA. I don't think that's going to translate well. Well, he just stole six in 96 games. I don't understand how you can have him 13th. I mean, the kinds of first baseman you must be slotting him ahead of. I assume like Miguel Cabrera, like jerks and pro far, who I understand is not a pure first baseman, but it was awfully productive last season. Matt Olson.

I think if you go and look. You have them ahead of all those players. Oh, yeah. And I went and looked. There were not very many hitters last year that had his hard contact rate and his walk rate, and we're not superstars. And I don't, I'm not saying for sure he's going to be a superstar, but the one thing we haven't talked about, other than the fact that Cleveland gives him a better chance to play every day, it's a slightly better park. More importantly, I expect he's hitting fifth in that order directly behind, most likely a grouping includes Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Santana. he is

Edwin and Carnacion had a hundred and nine RBI in that spot last year well Edwin and Carnacian's been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last what six or seven years he wasn't quite that last year he wasn't quite that last year but yeah I think you summed it up for a player with his power profile

which you know it's it's not clear he's going to be this consistent 20 homer guy even he's got to strike out less. He's got to show more batting average potential. He hit 201 last year, which, you know, probably wasn't totally deserved, but even so. He just, he did not show up enough last year to rank as a must have in standard 12-team league. Well, that's the great thing about it.

As long as Scott leaves him where he is in his rankings, you guys can all get him in the next to last round of fantasy drafts and be very happy with the return. You get in ROTOS. Scott has Hermann Marquez as the number 19 starting pitcher, number 74 overall. I have him at number 29, number 99 overall, so not quite as big of a difference. He was 14 and 11 last year, 377 ERA, 120 whips, struck out 230 batters, and finished like a ball of fire. Scott, you have no doubts about him repeating? I want to say I have no doubts. I'm a little self-conscious about this ranking 19th overall.

That's directly ahead of Mike. Clevenger, Madison Bumgarner, who I don't like, Carlos Martinez, Jack Flaherty, David Price. I mean, he's in a group of pitchers that I think have enough question marks in their own right. And when you compare the upside for Hermann Marquez, who, I mean, you said he was a ball of fire in the second half, I can't look up exactly where he finished now because that debt. data has been pushed aside. But I was checking throughout the second half last year.

And when you did, when you ranked starting pitchers by head-to-head scoring from the start of the second half on, it was always him and like Jacob de Grom, like Justin Verlander, like Max Scherzer. Like he was up there with the, the Cy Young finalist throughout the second half with a huge strikeout rate that I mean the kinds of adjustments

he made uh help help explain how that was possible and him breaking out these two awesome breaking balls to go with high 90s heat and a lot of it was he started throwing his slider just a lot more right? Yeah. I just get a little bit worried not that he was doing it to the extent and he was much

better and I don't think he falls back to the degree but I get a little bit worried about the Matt Shoemaker effect. That works a lot of times with pitchers when they make a change in their arsenal and start throwing one secondary pitch just a lot more of the time. A lot of that work for half a season. I think in Schuemaker's case it was more of a gimmick

and Marquez's case it was more of his stuff is awesome. Now let's figure out a way to maximize it and that's what happened last year. I think he also made it changed the way he his delivery to the plate,

it was kind of like he was telegraphing his secondary pitches before because he would slow down as he delivered them. And so he kind of tightened that up. Like he made a lot of changes that really helped that arsenal popped. I mean, the stuff is great. Like, in terms of how hard he throws, the kind of break he gets on those pitches. Like, there's no, like, the only, the biggest concern for me,

with Marquez is where he's pitching his home game. Yeah, that's, and we saw a lot of good Rockies pitchers last year and not the one that we thought was going to be good. It will be interesting to see how those guys do. Let's get to the news and notes on just a very busy week of baseball news. Mariano Rivera, Roy Halliday, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Musina all in the Hall of Fame. How do you feel about Rivera being the first 100% vote guy? I'm glad it's over. I'm glad nobody can use the excuse well.

If such and such and such and such weren't 100% guys, then I shouldn't vote for this guy just to make sure he's not either. Because, okay, well, now the lid is off, right? So I've already predicted on Twitter that Derek Jeter will be the second 100% guy next year. Wow. That's going to be something. That's going to be really something.

I think with those obvious cases, we'll see more and more of it. Somebody like Roy Halliday, I don't think he was obvious enough. though he got in on the first ballot, I don't think he was obvious enough that you would expect him to get 100%. But the next time, like, a Ken Griffey comes up or a Greg Maddox, where there's just no doubt this guy obviously belongs in the Hall of Fame, I think we'll see the 100% a little easier going forward. Now, it's too bad that we're going to have a closer

and, like, the 75th best player of all time is the two 100% guys after that. It is kind of. disappointing that that's who it is a closer, I agree. Sunny Gray, speaking of the Yankees, was dealt to the Cincinnati Reds. Do you have any hope that this matters

at all for fantasy? I mean, change of scenery. He was good before he went to the Yankees. I don't know if it was the stage that messed him up or whatever. But he's been a guy who, for a couple different

stints in his career, was a legitimate Sy Young contender. And because he's a groundball pitcher, one of the best ground ball pitchers in the majors, that environment should be one he's equipped to handle. Now, I said that when he went to Yankee Stadium, too. I don't really understand what went wrong for him there. I'm not, you know, investing in him heavily based on this, but I'm not ruling out a bounceback for him either. I think the Reds have put together very interesting team heading into 2019, maybe the most interesting team in all. all the majors because I think the offense is basically there.

They already have a playoff caliber offense and they've assembled this rotation filled with pitchers who have been good in the past, but they kind of got them, you know, for 50 cents on the dollar in the hopes of rehabilitating them. It's unrealistic to think the lull hit. And the other ones I'm referring to are Alex Wood, Tanner Roark. I think there's a third one there also. So Shed Long, Josh Stowers, a couple of, maybe I should use air quotes, but prospects involved in this deal. Either of them have a chance to be relevant this year or long term?

I mean, Shed Long was in my top 10 second base prospects that I wrote this offseason for Sportsline. He is, he's kind of interesting, power speed guy at second base. and now that he's with a rebuilding team that doesn't have an obvious option to second base being sent on to Seattle after that trade that sent Sunday Grey from the Yankees to the Reds I think it's possible he does get called up this year

I'm not probably investing in him outside of a very deep AL-only league but he's not a nobody How much are you moving as Drew Bull Cabrera up in your rankings? He's signed with the Texas Rangers, and it sounds like he will play third base full-time. Yeah, they finally figured out how they're going to fill that spot. Looking at their depth chart, they had to get somebody. And, I mean, as Drewble Cabrera has been a useful, undervalued option for a few years in a row now.

I think he's probably a top 20-second basement for sure. Well, let me look at my second base rank I didn't have him any more close to that But I wasn't certain that he was going to land And a spot that was quite this good It's a good park It's not a good lineup But it's not a terrible lineup

And there's really nobody else on that roster That can play third base Right, no, he's going to play I just wonder Okay, so 20th range I have guys like Jeff McNeil Who's playing time is questionable Nick Sensel

Who obviously has a lot of upside but not a job to begin a year. As Rubel Cabrera, I currently have 25th, so he wasn't far behind. I could see moving him into the 20th range, sure. More news that matters. Cody Allen, who signed with the Angels, will close for the Angels per GM Billy Epler. Which is sad that it won't be Ty Butchery. We enjoyed our time with Ty Butchery, I think.

Where are you going to rank Cody Allen in your closer rankings? Not high. No, I don't, I don't, I don't think he's going to be among the more reliable options. Though, there's something to be said for just having a role, I think, in 2019. We're going to see less and less of the designated every save chance closer. Yeah, I think he almost has to be, like in terms of saves rank, if you were just ranking based on saves, he has to be top 20, just because there may not be 20 other guys. guys that have jobs. Yeah, 20 is not terribly high.

So, yeah, I would probably put him around Ken Giles, who I think is in a similar spot. Don't entirely trust the performance, but you know he's the save source for his team. Yeah, and it gets difficult in Roto ranking those guys. We give you rankings, but it's going to determine when you get to that point in the draft, do you need saves or are you worried about your ratios? you might take somebody that's not going to get very many saves, but you'd just rather have them on your team. But I think, I mean, this is about the best case scenario for Alan coming into the offseason.

Nick Marcaquis, back with the Braves on a one-year deal. I assume this will be a platoon situation with Adam Duvall. Well, I don't think so because it wasn't down the stretch last year. I expect he's going to play every day. Markakis. I did see something interesting after this signing, where they were talking about a potential lineup. I can't remember who it was from the Braves.

And Ozzy Albies was not listed in the first six names. That is interesting. I didn't notice that part of it. But yeah, Brian Snitker revealed, the Braves manager, of course, revealed how he expected his lineup to look heading into next season now that Marcagis is back. And he said it would be enter Enciarte back in the leadoff spot, followed by Josh Donaldson, Freddie Freeman,

Ronald Acuna batting forth, Nick Markekechus fit. Who did, well, who did you see six? I figure Albies would have to be. Maybe Albies was six. Maybe it wasn't in the top five,

which sixth is better than seventh, but it's still a far cry from what we expected from Ozzy Albies. This is what I expected when I ranked second baseman a month ago. Yeah, so what I, um, the most important thing I took from that is that

Acuna wouldn't be batting lead off anymore. Which I, I think makes sense from the Braves perspective and that, particularly in the NL, when you have the pitcher batting directly in front of them, whenever the lineup turns over. You know, that's your best power hitter in the leadoff spot. I don't know if that makes sense. But Ronald de Kuni, about the only running he did last year, was out of the leadoff spot.

And I've already had concerns about how big of a base dealer he's really going to be, just because it was kind of overwhelming. Once he got to the majors last year, big base dealer and the minors. But I feel like historically, the Braves, they haven't run much to begin with,

but particularly from guys, they rely on in the middle of their lineup, big bats, they don't ask them to run much. I mean, Andrew Jones covered as much ground as any center field or ever, right?

and he hardly had big steel seasons. He had a couple 20 steel years, I think. So the thought of Acuna being a 30 or 40 steel guy, I think is just, I think it's unrealistic. I hope for 20, and I don't think I could guarantee 20. No, it's maybe a 15 to 25 situation. Cattel Marte will play center field, per the Diamondbacks GM. The Dodgers are talking about trading Jock Peterson, and they sound like they're pretty, deep into talks with AJ Pollock.

The twins signed Martin Perez and planned on starting him. That sounds like a terrible plan for the twins. And speaking of terrible lefties, Scott's going to object to me saying that, Drew Pomerantz signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the New York Giants. Yeah. Yeah, who was it?

I'm sorry, I missed the name. I was chuckling at you. Drew Pomerantz. Drew Pomerantz. Okay. Are you excited about that? You know what I'm excited about what? Investing.

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dot com. Scott, are you ready to talk about your sleepers, breakouts, and busts? I would love to talk about my sleepers breakouts and bust teeth. I just thought, you know, I don't know a lot about this filling in for people's stuff. I don't get to do it as much as I did.

Oddly in year one, which I guess maybe in year one, they thought Heath might be able to do this and then clearly Heath can't. But I thought talking about things that Scott has written is a thing that we do on the show all the time. You have 10 to 12 sleepers breakouts and bust. I chose three, kind of selfishly, that I was most interested in, your justification for.

I'm not going to argue with them, for the most part. I am just curious. Let's start with sleepers. You've got... You know, you could have read the column, and then... you wouldn't be curious anymore. Yeah, I could have, yes.

Luke Voigt, but then the listeners wouldn't be able to hear this. Luke Voight, 333, 405, 689, and 148 played appearances with the Yankees last year. Scott has him as his number 18 first baseman, Roto. I've got him at number 24. I could be convinced to move him up, but this is an extremely small sample size and a baseball team that has way more. players than lineup spots. I'm a little concerned about Luke Voight.

Well, who else is playing first base? Greg Bird. Anyone can play first base. I mean, I guess there's some thought that maybe they could ship Gary Sanchez there. If he can't get it right behind the plate or Miguel Andahar, if you can't get it right at third base or DJ LaMayhew. Okay.

I guess I can understand that. But they are on the record now saying is they are going to give Luke Voight a chance to win this job in spring training. And apparently this is somebody they targeted for a long time from the Cardinals because they liked the way his bat profiled at Yankee Stadium. And we saw the way it profiled at Yankee Stadium. He hit a lot of home runs and he hit them to the opposite field.

He is one of the most extreme opposite field hitters on football. fly balls in all the baseball. And that's obviously a good thing for a right-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium. That's the easiest right field to hit it out of, probably in all the baseball. Two-thirds of his home runs last year, 10 of the 15, were to center or right. And these were, you know, for the most part, these were big, long home runs. Okay. Yeah, I think the bat profiles perfectly for the venue.

And I think we saw it got a small taste of what that's like. And I think the Yankees with all their resources, the fact they didn't bring in a veteran first baseman, speaks volumes of about how they feel about boys. Speaking of will he keep his job or will he even have his job, number two, on Scott Sleepers that Heath is questioning, but could be convinced about Fran Mill Reyes, 28340, 498 last year and 280. plate appearances. Scott has him as number 49 outfielder in Roto. I've got him at number 77 because there are just too many outfielders on the Padres. There are and it's possible he doesn't win the job. I think the fact he had a knee procedure this offseason doesn't help his chances, but he's supposed to be fine for the start of spring training. So in theory that shouldn't matter. Maybe I'm wrong about this, but my understanding is there is currently one outfield spot available

on the Padres. Will Myers is playing left, Hunter Renfro is playing right, correct? I don't know that run for us a guarantee. Oh, okay. Will Myers is. I think Fran Mill Reyes is other than Will Myers, he's the best outfielder the Padres have. Ooh. And I mean, for the most part, you could just evaluate him on his full season line. He had 280 with 16 homers and 261 of bats in the majors last year. I mean, you profile that out to full season. That's 280 with 30-something home runs, you know?

But even that kind of understates the potential, I think, because if you look what he was doing in the minor leagues, really not striking out much at all for a big six foot five power hitter. He struck out a ton during his first taste of the majors last year, got sent back down for a while, made some tweaks to a swing, came back up, and over his final 49 games from August 5th on, hit 318 with 10 homers and a 933 OPS. The strikeout rate was way down, more in line with what he did in the minors.

And he hits the ball to all fields. He does it with a great line. line drive rate, similar exit velocity to Giancarlo Stanton. This looks like not just a monster power hitter, but a good all-around hitter too. Somebody who could anchor the middle of the Padres lineup

for years to come. But let's just, I want to clarify one thing. You can't conceivably put Wilmire's, Fran Mill, Reyes, and Hunter Renfro in the same outfield unless you're going to play another guy in the outfield, right? They can't. I mean, it wouldn't be a good outfield. I'm not sure how much

Centerfield Myers or Renfro has played. I don't think you could play Fram Bill Reyes out there, no. I don't think, I don't think. Maybe Will Myers has played center field before. I don't think Will Myers is going to be much better than Framil Reyes at this stage of their careers in center field. So it's probably going to

come down to Hunter Renfro versus Fran Mill Reyes, and it's interesting because I think most people are just assuming that Hunter Renfro's got a job. That might be quite a competition. It might be. And you know what? Even if Reyes doesn't win job in spring training, I think he'll be somebody worth holding on to because he'll, I mean, I don't know if you saw his minor league numbers last year, but that's obviously where the excitement

started for him. Okay. Third one, and this is actually a sleeper that I agree with so much that I haven't ranked 12 spots higher than you do. Josh James for the Houston Astros only through 23 innings last year in the majors, but he was pretty good, 11.3K per 9. in the minor leagues 114 innings last year 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He's Scott's number 73 starting pitcher in Roto, my number 61.

Move him up, Scott. Yeah, I am going to move him up, actually. I made a note to do that after our last mock draft. So he is eventually, where did you say you had him at starting pitcher? 61. 61. Okay, I plan to move him up to 64. Perfect. There we go.

Right in the same range. Yeah, so very interesting story, Josh James. He picked up 10 miles per hour on his fastball last year. I mean, picking up two miles per hour on your fastball is a huge profile-altering accomplishment. Did he grow six inches? No, I mean, the story isn't, you know, we can theorize beyond this story if we want. The story is sleep apnea was something he was dealing with, didn't know he was dealing with. It wasn't sleeping well for years and got diagnosed with it, got one of those, you know, pieces of equipment.

You strap onto your face to sleep every night when you have sleep apnea and was suddenly had this newfound energy that... Wait a second. He didn't even know he was missing. Mike Napoli got like his entire face broken because he had sleep. Now they've got just a thing they put on your face and it's all fine? I mean, I don't know. I don't know. I'm just, I mostly just know.

I don't know how much I want to reveal, but somebody in my family has sleep ap. Okay. They have something they strapped to their face. Didn't Mike Napley get it like every bone in his face broken or something? He had like, yeah, they basically reshaped his face. The only thing I would say is maybe Josh James should be a breakout. and your first breakout we're going to discuss should be the sleeper because he seems like he's like 40 years old and he's probably only like 28.

He's 26. Oh, wait, the other guy or Josh James? Yes, yes. Nasty Nate Evaldi. Nathan Evaldi. Yeah. 3.33 ERA last year in 54 innings with the Boston Red Sox. Eight strikeouts per nine, a 1.28 whip.

He's got's number 62 starting pitcher. so you need to move Josh James up at least to 62 because he should be ahead of Nate Avaldi. I've got Avaldi at 71. I am not convinced that he is much different than he's ever been. Well, his arsenal is radically different. Now, whether or not you're convinced that it's going to impact the numbers, that's fair to ask, I guess.

But he was primarily a fastball slider pitcher before. He cut back on the slider and stuff. started emphasizing a new pitch at cutter last year. And the importance of that is, what's always been the story for Nativaldi? Guy throws high 90s, 100 miles per hour, but doesn't really miss bats with it. Well, the cutter is so much closer to that fastball

in terms of velocity and, I guess, movement. it doesn't move as much as the slider. So it's harder to differentiate between his cutter and his fastball than it was his fastball and his slider. And what that led to is a much higher swinging strike rate on the fastball. The fastball actually started looking like an elite fastball in terms of how Benny Bats it was missing for Avaldi last year. And it led to basically career best numbers across the board.

It was a career best strikeout. rates, but it was 8.2 Ks per 9 also. Yeah, I think that's good enough. Considering he's going to be pitching for the Red Sox for a full season, if we give him good health. Like the ceiling here is Rick Porcelo, right?

That's kind of the comparison I made in the column. I didn't describe it as the ceiling, but I think there's a Rick Porcello like outcome here for Evald. Yeah. Okay. And we're going to talk about Rick Porcelo in just a little bit. I don't, I've never liked him, obviously. Actually, I think we've gone back every other year where one year I've got

like 30 spots higher than you and one year you've got him 30 spots higher than me. Let's talk about Jesse Winker. Because I think that I was the first Jesse Winker fanboy. And I loved him back when he had like a 40% hard contact rate and never hit home runs. He hit 299 last year, 405 on base, 431 slug because he didn't have much power. Did not steal a base though. Skydine is, you have measure number 41 outfielder. Yeah. I've got him at number 69, and it's for kind of a similar reason to the other guys, I'm not sure that Jesse Winker's playing every day.

Well, the Matt Kemp, Yossiel Pueg trade made it less obvious for sure. I mean, they added two outfielders to the mix. You've got to figure Puegg's going to be playing every day. There's no way Matt Kemp deserves to start over Winker. I am a little concerned. It might be a platoon situation at the start. start, but if Winker performs like I think he can, he'll quickly put that to rest. The guy reached base at a 405 clip. Yeah, he was awesome last year. I think he's going to be very good.

I don't like, I think it's almost certain Matt Kemp is playing against Lefties. I don't know if it'll be for Scott Shebler or for Jesse Winker, but I think Shebler was better against Lefties last year, wasn't he? I think he was pretty good. Yeah, and he's projected to be the center fielder. Yeah, Kemp's not playing. I mean, you could move Winker, I guess. Right.

But my point is, I mean, Winker, Winker hit seven home runs last year for the season, but six of them came over the final month. Oh, yeah, I remember when he went like eight weeks or something, it seemed like, and I just kept saying he's going to start hitting home runs. And then he hit six of them in three weeks and then got hurt for the season. Yeah, it was a little longer than six weeks or three weeks or even a month, but the point was it was a very concentrated span of time right before the injury. And like you said, the batted ball profile lends itself to that. It actually looks almost identical to Joey Votto's in terms of how many line drives he's hitting, the walk-to-strikeout ratio, how hard he's hitting the ball, hitting it to all fields. It's like Winker is a mini version of Joey Votto. And I think the power is going to be fine.

I think he is going to be a consistent 20 homer guy, if not better, in the majors. Because if you look earlier in his minor league career, you know, he was a guy who was hitting 15, 16 home runs. I feel like in today's major league environment, you get anybody with a certain baseline hitting ability, which Winker certainly has. I mean, he looks like a natural at the bat. It's not that hard to add power onto that. And I think we were starting to see that towards the end of last season. Probably the biggest drawback to Winker heading into 2019 is that he is coming off surgery to repair a labrum in his shoulder.

Right. But he, like, there's a positive spin to that too because that's an injury he says he's been playing with through for a couple years, which about coincides with when the homeowner. run total started dropping off in the minors. So you could make the case that maybe that was partially responsible for the lack of home runs in the minors. But, you know, the fact that he started homering in the majors, I don't even know that it

matters that much. I think he's going to be fine. I think he's going to be great. I think he has an enormous breakout potential. I'm going to move him up from where I have him ranked, but I can't get him as high as you do until I get some. I'm just, I don't like Matt Kemp, but I think Matt Kemp is probably. is still going to terrorize left-handed pitching.

And so I don't think they're going to stop using him against left-handed pitching. And I think that's bad news for Jesse Winker. The third breakout, Jurek's and ProFar. Had a bit of a breakout last year in his first full season, 254, 335, 458, 20 home runs, 10 stolen bases. He is Scott's number 17 third baseman, number 14 shortstop. I've got him 19 at third base, 17 at shortstop. Tell me that there's going to be something.

something from Jurek's profile that we didn't see last year. Like, what's, where's he going to be batting average? I think he profiles as more of a 280 hitter than the 254 we saw last year. And you know, at a good year, that means he could hit even higher than 280 in a year where he has especially good luck. But last year he had especially bad luck, which sounds funny to say in what was to this point his breakout season. but his Babbit was among the worst among full-time players. It was only 269. And, you know, a lot of players do profile for a low Babbat,

but it's usually because they're hitting a ton of fly balls, not hitting many line drives. I mean, profile, in terms of the quality of contact he was making, he was pretty average across the board. So I would expect an average 300 Babbitt from, him as opposed to that 269 mark. And as little as he strikes out, the way he started adding power to his game last year, that to me should come out to about a 280 batting average.

And particularly in points leagues where he's not getting minus 0.5 as often because the strikeouts are so low and he's sitting a lot of extra base, getting a lot of extra base hits. I think he's going to be pretty close to high end. I don't know that the profile is that dissimilar from Anthony Rendon, really. He has first, third, and short eligibility. Is that right? First, third, and short, yes. And he's going to be primarily playing second base for the A's.

And I think the second base is the key. I don't really think in a standard league I'm going to start Jerks and Profar at first, third or short, but I might start him at second base. Yeah, I mean, I would think so. I would expect by the end you're starting him anywhere if he has this Anthony Rendon-like season. But that's obviously a best case scenario. Let's get to your busts. And one of my favorite parts about doing sleepers breakouts and busts before like even the

Super Bowl has happened is you don't really know what the public perception of players is, what their ADP is going to be, or what their consensus ranking is. So your first bus, I think everyone just may agree with you already, Scott. George Springer. Yes, 265. He was just, he was fine last year. Not very good at all, really. 265, 346, 434.

You still have him as your number 15 outfielder. I have him as my number 14 outfielder. The current Fantasy Pro's consensus ranking has him as the number 17 outfielder. The highest anyone has him is number 14. Yeah, but when will they actually take him? Because I just don't expect to draft him at all. He went in round five of the head-to-head points mock we did the other day. That's about the earliest I'd consider taking him.

And I think in five outfielder roto leagues, we're going to see him go round four, maybe even round three sometimes, which to me is, it just, like I feel like that's, valuing him according to his ceiling that we've really only seen once in his career. He's given us 1.30 Homer season. And while he doesn't strike out much at this stage of his career, he's one of those guys who you look at the kind of contact he makes,

and, well, he does profile for a low Babbup. So him being a 260-ish hitter, I don't think that changes either. Yeah, it's... It sounds like he scores a lot of... run because he bats at the top of the Astros lineup, but that's probably the best thing he has going for him. What were you saying? It sounds like you think you have him too high.

I mean, maybe, but it's, yeah, I mean, it's a range of outfielders where it's hard to get excited about any of them. The problem is he doesn't steal bases, and I feel like I have him too high, the more you look into his numbers, because he, like you said he had 1.30 homer season, and maybe that's not quite fair because he had a 29 homer season,

but just go with by his OPS. he's got one year with an 820 or 830 OPS or better. Like he's just kind of been good and not great and runs are really the only thing it looks like he's going to be a plus plus contributor in. And I think you're right. I don't think you can take that in the fourth round of a drift. I don't think so either.

All right. I agree, Scott. Maybe I can move behind Whitmerfields. Yes. Maybe behind Reese Hoskins in a points league. Yes. But that's it. That like,

Beyond that, you should move behind your next bust. You get into like Michael Brantley's and Justin Upton's and some similarly flawed players. Mitch Hanigur coming off at 285, 366, 493 year with 26 home runs and eight stolen bases. And Scott White says he's a bust. You're number 26 outfielder. I've got him number 19 in the outfield. I think the consensus probably closer to you on this one. He's number 28 in the consensus.

So you're still above the consensus ranking. Why do you hate Mitch Hanigur after you loved him so? Well, I think he broke through in a way that people don't doubt him what he brings to the table anymore, which is fine. I mean, what he brings to the table has a certain level of value. But, all right, let me start it. This is not making sense. That's all right. I'm talking Roto when I gave you these rankings.

So, I mean, Roto, a guy that gets you even, let's take it off a little bit because the Mariners' offense won't be as good this year. But 85 runs, 85 RBI, 25 home runs, and a 280 average, that's a very valuable. That's better than George Springer. Well, here's the problem. I don't think he's going to give you even those run an RBI total. So much of his value last year was from him being a 93 RBI 90 run guy. You drop those to 85. I think you could go even lower than that, given the state of the Mariners lineup.

They gave up, they got rid of their three best hitters other than Hanuker himself. They got rid of Canoe. They got rid of Cruz. They got rid of Gene Seguera. Well, he didn't have Cruz for most of last year. Or he didn't have Canoe for most of last year anyway. Okay. That's true.

But there's not much in that Mariners lineup other than Mitch Hanukes. himself and I don't think there's enough power um really to uh for him to be the I don't think he's the kind of player who can carry himself I think he profiles similarly if you're not giving him that boost from his supporting cast I think a 280 hitting 25 homer outfielders they're they're kind of a dime a dozen in this present environment and trying to think of a good comp. I know I have one in the column. What's wrong with George Springer as a comp?

Well, because George Springer is going to score a hundred bruns. I'm trying to make a comp of somebody who's not valued very highly. No, I guess what I'm debating your two busts right now. And I had Springer ranked ahead of Hanager before this. I'm not trying to say you were wrong for having it that way. But the more that I think about it,

I don't know why we would rank George Springer ahead of Mitch Hanigur. well he's going to score 100 runs he's going to score probably 20 to 25 more runs and I would assume be worse than every other category um I mean I would give

I would give Springer the edge and home runs I would give Hanager the edge and batting average but I think that's a closer call than obviously the runs no I would I would give I would give Springer the

advantage in all four categories. Steals, I mean, we're completely leaving those out because neither does much of that. You give Springer the advantage in average? I will give Hanager a slight average advantage in average, but I can certainly... I think that's a pretty close call. And I don't know that we know what the Mariners lineup is going to look like, but I don't know that Malick Smith can be that much worse as a leadoff hitter than Gene Seguera. Um, Alex Smith worse than Jean Sagura.

I don't know. I look at that Mariners lineup and it's pretty sad. It's not good. Jay Bruce, Edward and Carnacione, Domingo Santana. I mean, if you expect Edwin and Carnacian to be there. Right. Yeah, that's the other thing we don't really know. Your final bust, I actually dislike more than you do.

It's Kyle Freeland. 17 wins last year with a 285 ERA, a 125 whip. and it wasn't real. I don't buy it. Scott's got him at number 50 at starting pitcher. I've got him at number 73, and neither of us are getting him in drafts at that ranking. Yeah.

You don't want him, do you? No, I don't want Kyle Freeland. No, he was a guy who you kept waiting to fall off last year because you looked at the supporting numbers, and it just didn't add up to the kind of performance he was having, especially considering he pitches his home games at this park where historically every pitcher, over the long run, ends up failing.

He's below average strikeout pitcher. He's a below average control pitcher. He's below average. Well, he's no better than average of getting ground balls. It's not like he's some extreme ground ball generator. You don't want to rank him ahead of Josh James. I do rank him ahead. I mean, one thing you have to consider with Josh James is, like,

he doesn't have a rotation spot yet. I expect to win one. But, you know, he hasn't until he has. I think you'd rather have Josh James on your bench than Kyle Freeland on your bench. Probably, yeah. Okay. So we'll move Josh James ahead of Kyle Freeland. Okay, we've talked about Scott's articles enough.

I've got something new that I'm doing this year. We're not going to cover all of the categories, or we might, depending on what Adam says when he gets back next week. But breaking down the roto categories, just trying to give some information and a sleeper breakout and bust for each category. We're going to go over steals and wins. Real quick. Only two times in the last 40 years where they're less stolen bases than there were in 2018, and both of those years were strike years. Only 11 players stole 30 bases last year.

Three of them will be on the Royals this year. Eight of them will be in the American League this year. So it's bad news for NL-only category leagues. And I guess, like my question, because last year it took 168 steals to win. The difference between that in third place was 23. The difference between that in the sixth place was 125 just to be average at steals. So how are you approaching steals? You just get them as they come.

Are you aggressively seeking them? What are you going to think of that? I usually like to get one big base stealer if I can. I think it's easier this year, actually, than in past years because who are the two leading base Steelers? It was Whitmery Fields. Trey Turner. Trey Turner, sure. And out Alberto Mondes, he wasn't far behind.

He might actually be the one who projects for the most because he did his in such a short span of time. All of those players contribute something other than steals. It's not like you're having to punt on all the other categories with the Billy Hamilton or a D. Gordon. Those are still options later in the draft. than ever before. So they're available later. These other guys who are available early, it doesn't feel like you're sacrificing as much to take them.

So I find I'm usually able to get one of them. And, you know, just kind of fill in little by little after that, not really making it a huge priority. Because there's no, you obviously, like one of the upsides to there being fewer big steals guys available is, Um, you don't need as many to compete either, right? Because it's all relative to how your opponents are doing. Right.

It is, I think, a little bit more difficult to catch up. Like, there will be guys that you can just totally, like, you can go pick up a Cameron Mabon and or Rajai Davis is probably a better example from years past where it just doesn't do anything but steel bases. Um, I think especially in NL only, you've got to be a little bit more aggressive. What I would like to do is get one of those guys that go in the first five or six rounds that are going to be very good at other things and give me a head start at steals. I want to take a steals guy in the first probably four or five rounds. Yeah, I mean.

But not just a steals guy. So far I've been able to draft out Alberto Mondesi or Whitmeriefield. And that, I think, gives you a nice head start. Yes. You know, unless you're just completely ignoring steals from thereafter, you could feel pretty confident. You're going to finish at least in the middle of the pack with one of those guys, if not higher, in the case of Mondecy.

Okay, I'll give you my sleeper, break out and bust. I'll give you a chance to tell me I'm stupid on each of them. The sleeper, and this is going to sound really ridiculous, but it's Billy Hamilton. His consensus ranking, last I looked, was right around 180. This is a guy who used to get drafted in the fifth or sixth round, and a couple of years justified it. He had a terrible year last year, but it was just two years ago that he hit 247 and was a top 70 player in Roto because of his steals. And now he's going to a team that has made it extremely obvious with every move and the way they finished last year that they're going to run like crazy. There is a great chance that Billy Hamilton returns enormous value where you're going to draft them.

Yeah, there is. I can't tell me I'm stupid on that one. Now, this sleeper break out of bus, these are for steel specifically. Right, yes. Okay. Yeah, no, I think I've always been opposed to drafting Billy Hamilton where you'd have to take them, which in the past has been like round four. And I'd always argue against it. This is the year, if there was ever a year to invest in Billy Hamilton,

this is it because he was placed on the scrap heap. The royals are trying to salvage him. And like you said, they're the team best suited to tap into that skill because they've made it clear. That's how they're going to generate offense this year. Between him, Mondecy, and Maryfields, they're going to be moving on the bases. My breakout for steals is Victor Robles. Just please do not return to Washington, Bryce Harper. I think Robles should still have a job

even if he does, but he is almost certainly going to be a starting outfielder for the Nationals as long as Bryce Harper doesn't come back. And I don't think he's just a steals guy. I think he's got a... No, he's not. He was a 300 hitter in the minor leagues. He's got a chance to be kind of

maybe in year one, something a little bit like Malick Smith was last year. Oh, I would give him even more power than that. I would like to see more power. He didn't have much power in the minors last year because of that hyper-extended elbow he was coming back from. But I think he's a 12-15 homer guy ultimately,

maybe even higher when he's in his prime. Yes. Year one, I think 10 to 12 would be outstanding. I think optimistically, even in year one, you could talk about him. And I know I'm telling this to the guy who has Andrew Benintendi ranked, what, 13th overall? Yes. So, you know, I don't want to play.

of too much, but I could see Robles being a much faster version of Andrew Benitenti. But just not a near as good of offense, so he wouldn't have the same run-in-R-B-I numbers. I mean, no, no, it's not the Red Sox, but it's not bad. Yeah, yeah. My bust for the category is Gene Seguera. He's actually seen his stolen-based numbers go down each of the last two years. Last year, he was caught stealing 11 times, and I'm not sure that match. if you stay on the Mariners, but going to Philadelphia, Gabe Kapler has not been a friend to the stolen base.

They had one player that attempted more than 14 stolen bases last year. That was Cesar Hernandez who attempted 25. I'm just not sure that Cigura is going to be a great source of steals an animal. And we know he's not a power source. That was an aberration. Well, it was also in Arizona, back when Arizona was one of the most hitter-friendly locations. Right. We just know that that's not what he is.

Well, then he went to Seattle, and now he's going to Philadelphia, which is much closer to Arizona in terms of friendliness to hitters, right? Well, okay, he played three and a half years in Milwaukee, which is one of the most friendly. But that was before he gained his man's strength? Well, it was before he was good. He was not good in Milwaukee. And then he did have a 20-homer season in Arizona. he's at 21 over the last two years in Seattle.

Maybe he'll hit 15. Sure. But if he's... No, I think... I guess what I'm trying to say is I think you could make the case. I think you make a very good case as far specifically stolen bases are concerned.

This might be... You know, you... I don't know that you can count on Sigura for even 20 with Gabe Kappler as his manager because that's... that just seems like so far from what the Phillies want to do. But I do think Seguera has some all around sleeper potential going from Seattle to Philadelphia. Yeah, it's definitely a better offense.

I'm not sure it's a lot better in terms of what's directly behind him. He had Hanigur right behind him most of the year last year, right? And then Nelson Cruz? I think so. So, I mean, he scored 91 runs last year. I think that's well within the realm of possibility if he can play 140 games again. He's probably maybe a 15-15 guy and home runs and stolen bases

and you don't get any RBI and he hits 300. So he's not useless in fantasy. I just don't, I think he's going to be a bust in terms of steals. Yeah, no, I can understand that argument. We've got one category left before Adam yells at me if we're going too long, so we'll move through this and quickly. it's wins can you plan for wins at all scott

yeah I do okay just draft good pitchers on good teams my biggest question is it's more in the fringes where you know somebody like rick porcelo is mostly valuable because of his win potential

somebody and you know that's a similar argument i was making for avaldi right it can take in the right scenario particularly i i think it's actually actually easier to do in today's environment when there are so few pitchers who have the leash to go six plus innings consistently because that that along with supporting cast is how you wind up with a formula for big

win total from a pitcher who might not stand out otherwise. Okay, I'll just get to my win sleeper is Joe Musgrove. Ten of his last 11 starts last year. least six innings. He went seven innings in a lot of those. He got a little bit unlucky in terms of his ERA, but he got off to a terrible start, had his season delayed because of injury, wasn't any good when he first came out. Basically, his last 13 starts, he was a good starting pitcher. I think he's going to be a good starting pitcher in 2019. My wins breakout is Jose Barrios because I will never give up on him. Tell me if you think that sounds like a lot, Scott.

He had seven starts last year where he went at least six innings, gave up two runs or fewer, and did not get a win. That sounds like a lot. lot. Yeah. I thought it seemed like a lot. Then my wins bust is the guy we've been waiting to talk about. Rick Porcelo. He was terrible last year. He's a league average pitcher. He might win 13 games with a four ERA and no help in strikeouts and a mediocre whip. He is not a league average pitcher. Come on. He is at best a league average pitcher.

You know what? He was a 3.1 war pitcher last year. So that is significantly better than league average. He is a league average starting pitcher. His ERA plus the last two years has been 98 and 102. That is the definition of replacement level. Okay, but he's very efficient. He is one of the best strike throwers in baseball. His strikeout rate is now actually pretty good.

It's close to one per inning. And he's one of those, well, like I was saying, he was the example I used when we first started talking about this. But the year before... Consistently, the Red Sox let him pitch deep into games. The year before, he lost 17 games. Yeah, that was... He was much better last year than he was two years ago.

Well, yes, that is true. He has had one really good year in his career, two really good years in his career. I think he's a league average pitcher. And I don't want any part of Rick Porcelo. Just don't go chasing... Porcelo falls? Yeah.

I mean, I like him a lot more in points than Roto. I mean, you don't really care what his ERA is in... points leagues as long as he's given you innings and wins, right? Agreed. And this is Heath's wins bust. These are all rotissory based because they are about the roto categories.

Fair enough. Okay. So we don't have time for a lot of emails, but I want to read one. We'll read more on Friday. And I'm going to read one that's not a keeper's email. And if you send us more, not keepers emails, we will read more of your emails. Scott, rank these starting pitchers from most likely to

least likely to reach 200 innings this season. Zach Grinky Carlos Carrasco Cole Hamill's Clayton Kershaw Madison Bungarner Most likely to least likely

Okay most likely is Zach Granky Followed by Carlos Carrasco First of all I think Granky's going to be the only one to do it Let me just put that out there That's good good help for Justin

Okay so Granky Carrasco Hamils bumgarner, Kershaw. Bumgarner over Kershaw. Yeah, Kershaw has zero chance of getting to 200 innings. I think ever again.

Wow. Because of his chronic back issues. They're just, he's just not going to, like the Dodgers are going to have to rest him periodically to keep his fastball from completely dying. That's going to do it for the Wednesday edition of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Thank you for putting up for my hosting.

Thank you, Scott, for being so patient, not pointing out any more of my errors after you did so to open the show. And we will talk to everybody again on Friday.