Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/24 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Early Breakouts

Episode Date: January 24, 2018

We've got eight breakout candidates to tell you about, but fist let's discuss an interesting league setting (2:46), where to rank Anthony Rizzo if he is 2B eligible (5:52) and why the pitch clock might reduce pitch velocity (11:04) ... Jose Berrios (16:45), Zack Godley (21:50) and Blake Snell (25:05) are among the SPs who could break out in 2018 ... Touting a couple of Red Sox sluggers (28:02), debating Matt Olson vs. Matt Carpenter (38:13) and more ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All right, yesterday we gave you some sleepers. Today, let's do some breakouts. Will Jose Barrios break out this season? Or should you go with Zach Godley? Or both? You know, you get them in different rounds. And we have some Red Sox to tell you about, and a lot more. Your emails at Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com.

And here are our Twitter handles. Heid Cummings. Oh, you want me to give my Twitter handle? I did, yeah. When you said, here are our Twitter handles. Now you know what I'm like, too, for making this a big deal. At Heath Cummings, SR. S-R, senior.

At Heath Cummings, SR. And Scott White. At CBS Scott White. Sorry. Did you think about that one? It took me a second to think about it. The sorries aren't included, by the way. That was, you know, either here nor there.

At CBS, Scott White, sorry. And I am at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R, and those are our Twitter handles. And again, we want you to email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Now, some people type in CBS-E-Y-E, because, you know, You know, like the CBS logo is an I. It's actually the letter I, cbsi.com. Okay, great start to the show, really interesting stuff. So before we get into the breakouts, there are no news and notes today.

So we're going to talk about the humidor. We're going to talk about Anthony Rizzo as a second baseman. And we're going to talk about a league format. People are into that. They're into these league format questions. So here we go. This is an email from Brian in Los Angeles. It says, hey, Paul, Jordan, Christopher, and Giac.

and Guillermo and then in parentheses and Greta It's your turn It's my turn You don't know this one? I don't know this one Of course I don't know this one Yesterday was my day This is the strangest thing I've ever heard

Oh they're Oscar nominated Directors I believe I would think you would know that Scott Christopher Nolan Greta what's her name Kermuda Gerwig Yeah Gertigo Del Tora

Jordan Peele I cannot believe that Get Out was nominated for Oscars. Like, that movie was so average. Yeah, I mean, yeah, I was kind of surprised, too. What an average movie. Whatever. Yeah, I mean, it, you know, it was kind of like, it was kind of campy horror with a, you know, twist.

Very campy. That was, you know, kind of social commentary. So I guess that's what gets it in. Yeah, I mean, it's social commentary. but not that great of a movie. It doesn't make it a good movie. Anyway, here's the question. My league's commissioner floated out a vote of having three matchups each week instead of just one.

So in my head-to-head categories league, instead of playing just one team each week, you play three different squads and will have between three wins and losses on your record each week. The idea behind it is that theoretically it removes some of the luck from the matchups and that even if one team does exceptionally well in a week, the overall record is closer to the best team or the one with the best breakdown. Have you ever heard of a league format like this? I can't even imagine how it would be visualized within the app. Help me, because honestly, this sounds awful.

I have played in a football league like this where you play double-headers each week. I do think it accomplishes the stated goal of removing a little bit of the luck from the matchups. Keith, you also play in a baseball league that does this. I do? Yeah, the editorial league. We play two a week. Ah, yeah, I do. We're off to a roaring start here today.

I like it. Twitter, can't remember our Twitter handles. Can't remember what league formats we play in. I don't think it's necessarily good or bad, but I like it. Yeah, it's fine. And in terms of visualizing it in the app, it's just like there are more matchups on the scoreboard. It's not a big deal.

Now, you play, though, Jordan, or Brian, excuse me, in a head-to-head categories league that awards only one win and loss, depending on who wins the most categories. You shouldn't play that. You should play every category as a win. Can you imagine having a 30-0 week? That would be crazy. That would be crazy.

Yeah. That would be more fun. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I, like, I don't know. I'm not as firmly, it's not as, I'm not as staunch about that. Like, you have to count every individual category as a winner or loss as opposed to the whole thing. I wouldn't have. I think you can, it almost invites more strategy and invites the ability to punt on categories more if the

combination of categories equals a win or a loss instead of each one individually. Well, wait. Why should we... What encourages punting more? Each category is a win, or whoever wins the most category goes... Categories goes one or no? The latter. Yes, I agree.

So why should we encourage punting? Well, I just think it creates for more diversity and strategy. Like, in a way makes things a little more interesting. I wonder if we should consider... But I'm not, you know, I'm not firmly on one side of this. the other. This isn't a debate for me. I'm just not going to totally deride people the leagues that do it that way. I wonder what you should consider adding doubleheaders to the greatest league ever created, the Rejects League. I'm fine with it. Look, you're just playing

more, you're not changing your lineup at all, unless you're doing it strategically against the opponent based on his or her lineup. You're just playing more, yeah, it does eliminate the randomness. I'm fine. That three is a lot, but I don't have a problem with two. Two matchups per week. I like that. And it gives you a little bit of hope if you're kind of out of it and you need to go, you know, two and oh instead of one and oh. You know, you're looking for a playoffs. I don't mind it, Brian. Don't worry about how it's going to look on the app. It's going to be fine.

This is a question from Matt and Canada. How would Anthony Rizzo's ranking change in your overall rankings in leagues in leagues where he is second base eligible to begin the season? He would be definitively my number two second. basement. I think it's already a really close, sorry, my number two first basement. I think it's already a really close call between Votto, Freeman, and Rizzo. That would put Rizzo over the top. It would make them somebody I'm drafting late in the first round instead of early in the second. Because second base is, you know, you got Altuve and Jose Ramirez at the top. But after that, it's kind of like 15 similar options, you know. What about Dozier? And it's just degrees of certainty between them. Well, how come you don't put Dozier in that mix?

Yeah, I guess he's kind of in between that. That's true. He kind of straddles it. And Dee Gordon does too as well in Roto League specifically in Categor's Leagues. Yeah, it's kind of interesting because Rizzo, so here's where he has finished at each position each of the last three years. And he hasn't been eligible each of the last three years. But just taking his fantasy point total and his overall finish in Roto and where he would have ranked at first and second base. 2015, at first base, he was second in points,

third in Roto. At second base, he was second in points, first in Roto. No, first and points, second Roto, pardon me. So he's top two or top three in both. In 2016, Anthony Rizzo, was when he started to become a lot better in points than Roto, or not a lot, but definitely better in points than Roto. 2016, Rizzo was the number four first baseman,

also in points, number eight in Roto. He was the number four second baseman. in points and number seven second basement in Roto. And then last year he was the number three first basement of points, number five in Roto, and he was the number two second basement in points, number four in Roto. So in Roto leagues, he's not even like that much of a standout the last two years at the position. It's kind of strange. You know, it depends.

Like, I think Rizzo isn't a standout in batting average. He's going to hit between 270 and 280. He's better than Brian Dozier in batting average. Yeah. So Brian Dozier is going to give you 12 to 15 steals. Rizzo might give you what? He got to 10 last year, I think. I got as many as 10 last year.

Yeah. You know, it's kind of... I think it's kind of parsing, you know, the fact that he's seven compared to the whatever the guys are ranked ahead of him, and it's just how valuable are those handful of steals to you. But Dozier might hit eight more home runs. I mean, maybe that's a lot, but more homer. I don't know.

The point of he's kind of been on par with Dozier in both points in Roto, each of the last two seasons. I think the advantage, though, is that you draft them as a second basement, it frees you up to draft the first basement later. That's going to be better than the second baseman taking the equivalent round, potentially. I guess my thing also with the whole Rizzo-Dosier thing is I feel relatively confident that Ryan Dozier has had his career year. I still think there's one coming for Rizzo.

Right. That's another good point. I mean, and Rizzo feels a lot more secure to me. Maybe that's unfair, but it's just the kind of production that Dozier has provided since he's been a fantasy asset has kind of been all over the map. Yeah, you know, he has a 40 homer season or what was it, 42 home runs, whatever it was. I mean, you look up safe in the fantasy baseball dictionary and you see Anthony Rizzo, between 94 and 99 runs each of the last three years, between 101 and 109 RBI's, between 31 and 32 home runs. runs. Like, he is the same thing every year. Yeah, actually. Fred McGriff. President Dave, Fred McGri.

Prime dog. What stood out to me, I guess, when I was coming up with, when I was looking at the numbers and where he finished, where Rizzo finished at second base, is that I think Dozier might just be underrated. You know, like, he's sitting there in the middle of the third round and all these really good hitters are coming off the board. You're getting to the point in your hitters where, unless you have a league that goes picture heavy, but you're losing the, you know, lead hitters by the end of the third round, maybe into the fourth.

And then Dozier's sitting there and it's like, well, maybe he deserves to, you know, people to be drafted with confidence there. Because two years in a row, he's been awesome in fantasy. Yeah, I find him frustrating to own because, I mean, last year, obviously it was a ridiculous second half. I mean, sorry, 2016, it was a ridiculous second half making up for, you know, he was looking like a bust for most of the year. And then even last year.

end of May 1 third of the way through the season he was hitting 249 with a 778 OPS and it's like what did I get myself into he turned it around again

not to the same extent he did two years ago but like it's the experience of owning Dozier is an uncomfortable one and that means something to me

tweet of the day that does not mean anything to me no no I'm very comfortable with Brian Dozier tweet of the day So serial god

G-A-A-W-D And this is nothing to do with cereal Tweeted us and said Interesting article regarding the pitch clock Don't know if you've read it And then I read it It was from 538.com And the title is

Pitchers are slowing down To speed up And the point of the story was That pitchers were taking more time on the mound And consequently they were gaining velocity And the article showed a correlation Between time spent in between pitches And velocity

The more time you spend in between pitches, the more the harder you through. So I thought that was kind of interesting, guys. And who are we to argue with 538? Oh, that makes sense. Like, from a, just from what we know about lifting weights, from what we know about running. Like, basically everything you do physically, you need recovery time. Yeah.

And there is a certain amount of recovery time that will make you better on your next rep. So, yeah. It's just a question of significance, relevance, all of that. Because I think one detail they mentioned is that just from 2016 to 2017, the average time in between pitches, there was a full second. And I don't know. Do we notice a big disparity in velocities from 2017 versus 2016 with a full second gain when they're talking about, you know, every two tenths of a second makes, you know, I'm kind of. of getting into the details of the argument, but the article. But another thing I noticed is because I was actually putting together my bust list yesterday.

And the thought crossed my mind, well, if there is this pitch clock 20 seconds, maybe I should look at pitchers who take in a normally long amount of time in between pitches. And, you know, there's a chance it'll affect them. No qualifying pitchers, not a single one last year, took long. less than 20 seconds in between pitches. What? Really? Every single qualifying pitcher took 20 seconds or more. And when I changed it from qualifiers to pitchers with 100 innings or more, only one did.

Only one took less than 20 seconds between pitches. So it's going to affect everybody to some degree. I think the lowest among qualifiers, the one who came closest to 20, was Carlos Martinez, one of the hardest throwing pitchers in the majors. So there will probably be margins of impact, but enough for any of us to really notice or care, you know, outside of the oddball example, I'm going to guess no.

It's going to be a lot of consternation, a lot of hand-wringing that ultimately ends up being not such a big deal. I mean, like I said yesterday, they've already been doing this in the minors, and have we heard any stories of this pitcher was ruined because of the pitchcloth? I don't think it's going to ruin pitchers, but we have seen velocity steadily going up. It did go up last year from the year before,

and strikeout rate is going crazy. And I think there is a correlation between velocity and strikeout rate. And strikeout rate is one of the only things that's helping to kind of keep baseball somewhat normal with the baseball and the power spike. If strikeout rate goes anywhere back close to where it was two or three years ago, and we still have all these home runs, baseball is going to look a lot different. Well, if you're talking just two or three years ago, I don't know. Has strikeout rate changed that much in two or three years?

I know it has in like 10 years, but... Well, look, first of all, Heath, I don't know anything about weightlifting or running, so what you said earlier just went right over my head. That's why I said it. I just don't see how you institute this rule, and it doesn't help offense. It's going to. To which degree, but how could it not? I mean, it's just like...

Well, and I'm trying to remember the exact numbers, because the estimate from the 538 article was that it would make a difference of 10 runs for a team over the course of a season, 10 runs over the course of the season. So one wins difference in terms of... I thought that was a mile per hour. Is that what they said? One mile per hour was 10 wins,

or they thought the effect of the pitch clock would be 10 wins? Well, the effect of the pitch clock, I don't think, if I remember the math, would be even as much as one mile per hour. Yeah, 10 runs, not 10 wins, sorry. Yeah, 10 runs. I'm confused. So, I mean, yes, it will have an impact. Will it have enough of an impact for us to notice or care? I'm thinking no.

There were 1,200 more strikeouts last year than there were in 2016. Wow. There were 3,500 more strikeouts last year, which is almost a 10% increase over 2013. Okay, I wanted to talk about the humidor today, but let's save that for our next show. They're still, from what I can tell, planning on putting in a humidor. Which, according... That's what somebody showed me on Twitter yesterday. That was like a December tweet from a writer or something like that that said, yeah,

it's planned to still have the humidor in. But I can't find anything about it. So let's see if we can solidify that, but also, you know, could have a major effect. We'll try to talk about that tomorrow. Let's get into some breakouts. Heath and Scott each gave me four breakouts. You want to read more. You can go on CBSports.com slash fantasy.

There are more listed there, but things. This is subject to change. It's only January, so this is part one, volume one, edition one of the breakout story. So we'll start with a breakout from Heath. Jose Berrios. I put in the notes that he will be four years old in May. I think I probably forgot the number two. He's probably going to be 24 years old.

So, yeah, 24 years old in May. And he came up last year in his first eight start. I mean, we saw him before that in 2016. But last year when he came up, 267 ERA in his first eight starts, he was brilliant. And then he struggled in his last 17 starts. But definitely improvement from the year before. So what do you expect this year from Jose Burrios? I think that you can look at this two different ways.

One, let's just look at if Jose Berrios doesn't necessarily improve that much as a starting pitcher, he still looks like he could be something similar to a top 25 starting pitcher next year, 185 innings between two levels last year through 170 the year before, looks like a very durable workhorse type starting pitcher. Had a 3890 IRA last year. That's not great. But in his first near full season in the majors, I would expect some improvement. He's pitching for a Twins team that I expect to be pretty good, especially defensively.

I see him as a guy that could go 200 innings, 200 strikeouts with 15 wins, and a whip around 1.2. Okay. Scott, any... And that's not the upside. What is the upside? The upside would be like ace? I think the upside is he wins 18 games with a 3... ERA and the low threes strikes out

210 batters, 215 batters, and is a top 15 starting pitcher, top 10 starting pitcher maybe. Maybe he will. He's still awfully young. He obviously had great minor league numbers. You know, I was

talking to somebody in the office yesterday about Jimmy Nelson and how incredible his minor league numbers were and, you know, how long it took him to become a high-end pitcher in fantasy. It took several years and Maybe, you know, it's kind of a snap judgment assessing Burrios after his first season or his second partial season. But we are in the business of making snap judgment.

So my snap judgment for Jose Borrios is that if he's going to do it, he's going to have to figure out how to miss bats better because his swinging strike rate was below average, which is surprising for a pitcher as young as he is, as hard as. he throws as good as his stuff supposed to be to have a below-average swinging strike rate. And you saw it catch up to him over the course of last season. Final 17 starts a 454 ERA. The strikeout numbers were up and down. And, you know, he wasn't consistently delivering quality starts. So I actually have him on my bus list. I think he's the one player from Heath's Sleeper and Breakouts list who I have on my bus list.

He may have some on his, I don't know. but for where Berrios is getting drafted, I think there are a lot of assumptions, and there are pitchers I'd like to have more. Okay, well, yesterday, Heath did take Jose Barrillos in a Roto draft that we did as a 12-team Roto League. Heath took Jose Barrios with the first pick of round 12. The three pitchers that went immediately after him,

and it was a little spread out, Dylan Bundy went three picks later, and then there was kind of a drought on starting pitchers about a round. Then it was Luke Weaver, Michael Fulmer. So, Heath, you took him. Barrios over Bundy, Weaver, and Fulmer. No regrets, I assume. Oh, no, no. I thought I waited

as long as I possibly could for Burrios. I would have been happy taking him earlier. And I don't know that there's a lot of bust risk in the 12th round. Okay. Yeah, I don't think that's a bad spot for him. Looking up where he is in Fantasy Pro's consensus rankings,

because that's kind of... He's 105th among all players in Fantasy Pro's consensus rankings, so that would be more like doing the quick math here. Ninth round. Yeah, three rounds earlier than Heath took him. And I'd be fine with taking him there. In the ninth round, ninth or tenth? He's going ahead of Otani.

He's going ahead of Salvador Perez. He's going ahead of... He should definitely go ahead of Otani. Oh, come on. Absolutely. Otani does not have anywhere near the innings potential that Brio Stowe. And we have no evidence to suggest, like, are Otani's Japanese numbers are that much more impressive than Burrios' AAA numbers?

Well, let me tell you something that's going to help. The scouting reports are more impressive for Otani, and the numbers are similarly impressive. Okay, but this is going to help Barrios. Think about this. He's been at his best when he's had a pitch clock. Am I right? There you go. Fair point.

All, let's get a couple of Scott breakouts, and they are two starting pitchers. Zach Godley and then Blake Snell. Let's start with Godley, who had a nice year last year. He went 8 and 9, but he had a 337 ERA. He had a 1.14 whip and more than a strikeout per inning. And can we get even better than that this year, Scott? I think perception can improve from there because if Jose Barrios is going 105th overall,

Zach Godley is going 134th overall, 29 picks later. And to me, it's no question, which I'd rather have more. I think it's a combination of factors that are causing people to overlook godly. One, he was nobody coming into last year, kind of an organizational depth type, somebody who might make a spot start here or there. But he introduced a curveball to his arsenal that made him, turned out to be a really good one. I mean, he was top 10 in swinging strike rate up there with Kershaw and, you know, the aces in terms of how often he misses bats. and he had fine strikeout rates. So, you know, I don't have much to question there.

What he's always done well, and this sort of player is notoriously overlooked among the prospect towns is get ground balls, an elite ground ball rate top 10 last year. So, you know, those are two legs of the fifth triangle that he has covered pretty well, keeping the ball in the park, missing bats, avoiding contact in the first place.

I don't know that the ERA and WIPP's going to get better from last year, but I think he can repeat it. I think the fact that he had a sub-500 record for a playoff team was totally fluky and not going to happen again. That's the other reason he's being overlooked is he just didn't have the point total you'd expect for somebody with those ERA and WIP. And I just believe in the skill set.

I think it's an ace caliber skill set, and obviously you don't have to draft him like an ace. All right, that's Zach Godley, he was going in the 130s and had a good year last year, and Scott likes him, and Heath, would you take Brioz or Godley? I would take... I think I take Boreos. All right, but the fact that you're, you know, hesitating...

I don't dislike Gaudley. I might argue with the premise that Zack Godley doing exactly what he did last year doesn't necessarily make him a breakout. But I don't see anything that says, no, there's no way. And I have them back to back. That's why it was so difficult for me. You know, I have... And I get what you're saying, because I don't love the terminology either.

But I feel like the purpose of sleepers and breakouts columns is to point out the players who are most going to exceed their draft position. So if I can't get the terminology to work exactly right, I'm not going to sweat it. I just want to talk about the players who I think are going to help people the most. Maybe he's more of a sleeper. Maybe. He is more of a sleeper. Yeah, that's fine. I'm not nearly as confident in handing out these terms as you guys.

We're trying to help you. The way I do it, and obviously not everybody does it the same way, is I tend to reserve the sleepers for lesser-known, lesser-known players, lesser-known lower-drafted players with upside, and the breakouts for better-known, but still having some upside players. Okay. Let's go to Blake Snell, then, who is another Scott breakout. Do you like Snell or Gaudley?

Do I like Snell or Gaudley? I like both. I like Gowley more. Who do you like more? You could make the argument Godlie's broken out. Well, I don't think you could make that argument for Snell. But he showed signs late last year. After returning to the minors from May 19th, June 21st, seven game stretch,

he had a 266 ERA, 61 strikeouts and 44 innings, and more importantly, his walk rate cut down. It was still high, but it was only like three per nine and not what we were seeing before then. And then got to the majors, final... 13. Final 8 starts. Oh, come on, 13.

No, I'm going final 8. Go 13, but okay. You can slice a pie in anyways. Final 8 starts for Blake Snell last year after getting himself right in the minors. He had 262 ERA, only 15 walks in 44 and 2 thirds inning, so a very similar walk. great to what he showed in the minors. And, you know, he had a 13 strikeout game. His last start of the season just looked dominant.

There were a couple of bad starts in there, but six of the eight were dominant. Four of them went seven innings or more. For the first time, as a major leaguer, showed ace potential, I think, when, you know, obviously that's when he was a prospect. That's what he was hyped to be. There were some calling him the next Clayton Kirschall when he began one minor league season with a consecutive, a few consecutive starts where he didn't allow a hit. It's just been control and pitch sequencing have got him in the majors.

But I think he made some strides with that return to the minors last year, and I think he's about to break out. All right, and Blake Snell, one of the most important things that I remember him doing last year, which is why I went to the 13 starts, because I think this is when it happened. He had a 331 in his final 331 ERA and a 1.11 whip in his last 13 starts. He moved over on the mound. He changed his positioning on the mound, and that helped his control, which I thought was so funny because it's like, well, you're, I don't know,

it's like, well, you're missing outside all the time. Just move over a little bit, and the ball will go into the strike zone. But that is, you know, that was really significant for him, and that helped him with his control. So Blake Snell, let me see where he went in yesterday's draft, probably pretty late. He went at the end of round 17 to Heath Cummings, taking all the sleepers.

So you took Blake Snell ahead of Denelson-Lamette, Irvin Santan. Drew Pomeran's, some pretty exciting pitchers going late. Yeah. I like Blake Snow a lot. I agree with everything, Scott said. He was on my breakout list last year, and he just didn't break out until the last 13 starts. When he moved over to the part of the mound. Right.

Yeah. So there you go. Now we know why. Let's go back to a Heath Cummings breakout. I don't know why I said like that. Yeah. Rafael Devers, 21 years old. As a 20-year-old rookie, he hit 284, with a 338 on base, 482 slugging percentage.

He became the second lefty ever to hit a home run against the Roll of Chapman. He did that on like a 102-mile-per-hour fastball. Chapman wasn't pitching great at the time, but still. Yeah, he was outstanding. Benny slumped, did not finish strong, but your thoughts on Devers this year? I took at least five of Scott's breakout candidates. I can only assume that Devers was one of them. He was the, I believe, and I'm just trying to find the official statistic now.

First off, he was just awesome. He hits the crap out of the ball. He had 30 home runs between three different levels last year. There have been 10 players since 1978 to post an OPS plus of 112 or better in at least 200 played appearances as a rookie. Okay? You're usually pretty good if you do that. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Jr., Carlos Correa, John Carlos Stanton, Jason Hayward, Rafael Devers, and Ozzy Albies.

So, yeah, I think Devers has the potential to be a top five third baseman. He's got 35, 40 Homer upside. He could do everything. Okay, so Heath, a couple of names on that list, Jason Hayward and Correa. And I remember you talking about Correa's OPS in his rookie season and how it compared to the best of the best. How concerned should you be about a sophomore slump? Because it does happen. What do you think?

Sophomore slumps do happen. The potential for a sophomore slump doesn't necessarily preclude someone from being a breakout candidate. So there's also, you know, after his rookie season, Carlos Corre was being drafted in the first round. Right. After his rookie season, Devers is being drafted 130th overall. Well, I anticipate that going up. Yesterday he went with the 11th pick of round seven. Right in between the 80s, I've seen him go so far.

But I don't think it's unfounded. I mean, by the seventh round, you can take some gambles. And I don't think it's a big gamble. Like, I don't remember. He is on my breakouts list. Yes, my initial breakout list had five overlapping heaths, so I had to cut a couple of them out. But Devers was one I didn't because I can't remember a 21-year-old I've been this confident about.

Obviously, there was Trout, maybe since him. a few things he didn't mention about Devers that to me just show ability beyond his years. The fact that if you look at the direction he hit balls last year, again, as a 21-year-old getting his first taste of major league action, or really he was a 20-year-old at the time, getting his first taste of major league action, pulled the ball 34.5% of the time, hit it to center, 33.9, hit it the opposite way, 31.5, all over the field. Which is, for a left-handed hitter of Fenway Park, is an especially big deal. Raphael Devers, a left-handed hitter at age 20, hit 400 against left-handed pitchers. Again, something you don't see very often. Yeah, but in the minors, he really didn't do very well against lefties.

Okay, it was a small sample, but, you know, 20 for 50. That's a big deal. Like, they didn't eat him alive, clearly. Like, my reasonable expectation for Devers this year is 2017 Travis Shaw, and I think there's upside from there. In the minors, Devers did, respectfully against lefties. He just didn't hit for power against lefties. But, well, I mean, if you could just hit for average and not be terrible against them,

then that's a really good thing. That's all you need to do. The last thing I just want to bring up with him is, I only bring this up because, like, As the host, it's not that I'm disagreeing, is that I like to bring up counterpoints just to get it on the table, give up people to somebody to think about. He started his first 20 games he had an 11-51 OPS. He had eight home runs of his 10. His last 38 games, maybe they adjusted to him.

He batted 241 with two home runs, 10 walks, 37 strikeouts, 10 doubles, which is nice. But a 642 OPS in his last 37 games. Should be mentioned, he went 4-for-11 with two home runs in the postseason. But I don't know. I think what you're saying here and what you're seeing, you're talking about a 21-year-old who has developed and moved through the minors at an extremely quick pace. He also had his breakout rookie year and his sophomore slump all in the same half season, and now he's ready for the third year. What's the earliest, I guess, you'd be comfortable drafting devers, because if he does start to rise, like Adam said. I mean, I don't know that this will be his breakout season.

I'm very confident he'll have one, and it'll be sooner than later. He doesn't have to really break out much from last year, though. Well, here's the comparison. There's a point where he's too high. What if he's Ben Intendi? Because Ben Intendi's also on your breakout list, and he was on breakout list last year. And he had a good year, but he didn't break out. He was a top 20 outfielder last year, right?

But he didn't break out. Like, you know looking at his numbers that he didn't break out. If Ben Intendi had been drafted in round four, it would have been too early. I would take Devers in round six if I had to. That's exactly what I was going to say. I think round six is the earliest. I could see justifying it. But, you know...

Are all the Travis Shaw's gone by round six? And would I rather have Travis? Do you have Devers ahead of Travis Shaw? I have Travis Shaw as a round six pick, one spot ahead of Devers. And he went one spot after Devers. To Heath in the draft we did yesterday, the Roto draft, 12-team Roto League. They went with the last two picks of round seven. So you'd rather take Devers over like a safe, reliable guy like Kyle Seeger?

Yes, for sure. And over Justin Turner and over Eduardo Nunez. Ooh, Justin Turner. Yeah, wow. That was MVP caliber production from Turner last year. This is where we depart. Yeah. Okay.

I think Turner is what Devers is striving to be, except healthier. What Turner was last year, yes. Well, the last two years is. It's hard to expect the 33-year-old that's never been healthy to be healthy. So why don't we go to Andrew Ben Attendee then, who not only was top 20, he was 15th in points, he was 17th in Roto. And he had a nice year, 271, 20 homers, 20 steals. but he's on your, and he only had 22 doubles and two triples in 151 games. That was a little disappointing.

But Heath, Ben and Tendi's on your breakout list because you obviously think there is more there, that he has more than just top 15 potential. So, yeah, talk to me about Ben Intendi, and before you do that, let me tell you where he went yesterday, round four. So, you know, toward the end, like the eighth pick of round four for Ben and Tendi yesterday. Yeah, I mean, in points leagues, there are very few. outfielders that I think have a higher upside than Ben Intendi does. Incredible, incredible plate discipline.

And I would expect, like, he struck out 17% of the time last year, which is good. I would expect that number's coming down because you look at everything he did in the minor leagues and it was closer to 10%. He should walk about as often as he strikes out eventually, maybe not this year. The 301 batted bab-ip last year was ridiculously low. And I would expect that to be closer to 330. Let's put him closer to a 300 average. Probably gets him closer to 30 stolen bases

and somewhere around 100 runs and 100 RBI. So a ton of played appearances. You just need him to stay healthy. And he's on base all the time, scoring runs. Top 10 outfielder. I love the guy who, big prospects, really good rookie year, didn't quite do what we thought he'd do in the second year,

and then comes back in the third year, like, third year breakout basis. Because, like, I believe in the sophomore slump. I don't think it's going to happen to everyone. Right. But I think it happens enough. And then these guys come back in their third year and they're really good. And so that's kind of the argument for Ben and Tenney.

Isn't that the argument for a guy like Bregman, too, who everybody loves? He's on my breakout list, too. He was one of the five overlappers, Bregman, but he's one I had to drop. And it was mostly because, you know, I don't think there's great, you're going to get him at a great discount. Yeah. And that's the same thing with Ben and Teddy. Ben and Tendi was on my much longer list of breakout candidates,

but I just didn't think there was enough of a discount to put him on that list, which isn't to say he still couldn't outperform his draft decisions. And I guess that's one of our differences in our breakout list. My sleeper list I definitely consider where I think someone's going to be drafted. My breakout list I was just looking for, well, specifically for, this when I was looking for guys under 25 that I thought had star potential. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, this was the list that Nolan Aronado like was on everybody's breakout list that

year. It may have seemed obvious, but when he finally broke out, you got elite play. So, you know, you're talking about potential stars here. I would say, would you say that Miguel Sino did this last year when I just talked about the encouraging rookie year, struggled in his second season, then you had value on him when you drafted him last year. And unfortunately, Sinoe got hurt, only played 114 games, but he looked like he did have the breakout year.

And you got a bit of a discount. Yeah. So I think that's what you were playing 150 games last year. Sheesh. Right. I wish Ben and Tendi were going a little bit later. I don't know how much value you're getting on him. Because, like I said, middle of the fourth round.

But it is a point where there just aren't that many good hitters anymore. Yeah, I'm fine with Ben and Tendi in the third. It's kind of an interesting one with Benintendi versus Marcelo Zuna. Who would you guys take? Benintendi for sure. I would take, yeah, Ben Intendi, though. I think he's only one spot ahead of Ozuna. Okay.

And we'll go back to Scott's breakouts. A couple of more for Scott here. Matt Olson will be 24 years old in March. He had 49 hits last year. 24 of them were home runs. He had a 41.4% home run to 4.4% home run to fly ball ratio. He had some ridiculous numbers. But 259 with 24 homers and 59 games. Matt Olson. So this is kind of a guy that I personally would be a little skeptical about, just because, you know,

the home run of fly ball rate. But you tell me why you have Olson as a breakout. I mean, he's got to hit home runs. I don't think there's anything we have to worry about there. He hit 47 between the majors and minors last year. You know, he had a 37 homer season in 2014, which is a crazy high number in the minors. They don't play as many games, and there aren't as many strikes thrown, and players aren't as strong. So you don't see many 30 homer seasons,

much less near 40 homer seasons. And his swing is just totally geared for home runs. His fly ball percentage, pull percentage, hard contact percentage, they were all among what you'd expect for an elite power hitter. He is going to hit a lot of home runs. What I think makes him, interesting beyond this

what I think makes him different from the usual phenotype here um like a gallo like a cirrus Davis doesn't strike out nearly as much 27.8 strikeout rate last year which is still on the

high side among all major leaguers but these guys are usually up over 30 it wasn't near the problem I feared it would be for Olson he walks a lot um you know other than maybe judge Stanton

I guess you could throw Bellinger in that group maybe one or two others I think Olson is the most likely candidate for 50 home runs this season I mean he was basically on a 70 homer pace over the what 40% of the season he played last year yeah so he's good

my question with him and I don't know know the answer. I'm not even that skeptical other than I just don't understand it. Why didn't he hit more home runs in 2016 or 2015? He had 17 home runs at AA and 15 and 585 plate appearances, just 17 and

2016 and 540 plate appearances. I don't I know... It's a little suspicious. I know there wasn't... Because he kind of lost some of his prospect shine during that two-year stretch which was part of the reason why he didn't get a lot of high.

coming into last season. And I know there was an explanation for it. I don't remember it off the top of my head. Let me see if I can Google it real quick. All right. Well, we're talking about Matt Olson here. Why you Google it? Was he at one point a big-time prospect?

Yes. Yes. In 2015, MLB.com had him as the 73rd best. In 2016, they had him as the 100 best. Okay. So Matt Olson of the A's, and Scott is doing the Google thing here. He went in the 12th round, some other first baseman that went after him.

Oh, I took Matt Carpenter four picks after Scott took Matt Olson. So you feel good about that, Scott? In a Roto league, yes, I may decide to move Matt Carpenter down because he's kind of become much like Carlos Santana, where the walk rates really put him over the top in a points league. but the batting average is going to he's become a liability in batting average which is kind of funny

because when he first broke out that was one of his biggest strengths so you know obviously I care more about the home run total in a Roto league than that all around production you do in points carpenter's become a big health risk

I was torn I had the opportunity to draft either one and you know my mouse hovered over Carpenter's name. I almost clicked it, but then I was like, you know what? I just really want the home runs. So I took Olson instead. Let me just say that I think that's bananas. Bonanas. How long did you pass on Carpenter? I passed on him too long, and I need to move him up a little bit, obviously. But when you look at the profiles for Matt Olson and Matt Carpenter, I agree with the injury risk part. I don't think either one of them is going to have a very good betting average. They both walk a lot, but Carpenter walks more. Carpenter doesn't strike out near as much as Olson does.

Olson crushed the baseball last year and had that huge, huge home run to fly ball rate that Adam talked about. But you look at this batted ball profile, he had a 40% hard contact rate. That's elite. Matt Carpenter's was 42%. He had a 46% fly ball rate. That's a lot of fly ball is going to get you a lot of home runs. Matt Carpenter's was 50%. Yeah, we've talked about how the profile for Carpenter's,

suggests he should have been much better than he was. But the profile suggests that Matt Carpenter... It still doesn't explain why he wasn't, you know? Should be a better home run hitter than Matt Olson. That's what the profile says. So you think Matt Carpenter has 50 homer potential? If he goes another full season with a 42% hard contact rate and a 50% flyball rate, absolutely. That is a big breakout to pin on a 33-year-old.

I agree, but his profile suggests that's what we should expect. I mean, we shouldn't expect 50 from anyone, but I don't think Olson's probably going to hit 50 this year either. Okay, 40. Let's say 40. Yes, absolutely. No question. I would, I don't know. I'm not a betting man.

I would bet a large sum of money on the idea that Matt Carpenter never hits 40 home runs in a season. Yeah, I think that's reasonable as well. Don't you have to kind of look at what he's done as a pro and not just, you know, because last year was kind of an outlier with Carpenter's back. I had a ballada. He had 23 home runs. What's his career high? 28 is his career high. I just, I can't see him hitting 40.

I don't know. Matt Carpenter's been a very good player for five years. Last year was disappointing, but he might have been unlucky. Five years of him being, you know, productive in some way in fantasy. I guess 2014 wasn't that good. Never mind. But four of the last five years. Anyway, I don't know.

I can't take Matt Olson over him, but it seems like that was not an easy decision for Scott. And I think we should move on to our next player. All right, so this is what I found. This is from Fanrag about Olson before we move on. This is from fan rag. Beaten by fastballs during his big league extent, Olson worked with Oakland hitting coaches to make a change with his setup at the plate.

The tweak was designed to get his bat to the ball quicker without giving up the power. His swing generates the adjustment, which involves lowering his hands, has made a significant difference for Olson this season. Scott, you are reading this with so much passion. Is that sarcasm? Yeah, it was. Put a little passion behind it. I was just trying to get through a quick way.

This is your breakout. I thought he was doing his fantasy baseball Sheldon in person. Especially when he said it's that sarcasm. So, and it looks like there was, you know, he's part of the fly ball, hitting more fly balls. So a batting stance adjustment and more fly balls is what changed roles. Would that be Howard or Raj? Who? Well, I think I'm clearly Howard.

You're Howard? Yeah, I think so. He's the best character anyway. That's a bit of an upset. I think Wallow is his better character than Sheldon. You know what? Howard is the character that has changed the most over the course of the show. Is he?

Yeah, and in a believable way. I mean, they've handled his character well. You know, early on he was kind of just a horn dog, right? Yeah, yeah, it's true. He's grown up. I guess I'm not like him then. This is getting weird. So anyway, we got two guys left, and I want to read some emails.

We only have about eight minutes left on the show. So I'm going to ask you guys to go through your next two much more quickly than the first six. Scott, Nick Castiano's, Heath, Ian Hap. First Castiano, Scott. Go ahead. Okay, so Nick Castellanos did some impressive things when he put bat on ball last year, which he does pretty often, by the way. It's not like strikeouts are a big issue for him, 21.4% rate last year.

He makes a fair amount of contact. He's always had plate discipline issues, like he doesn't walk enough, and so that's always steered me away from him. But it's a guy who was considered an elite prospect of the minors, came up at, like, age 21, and just kind of was there. Didn't really make a big fantasy impact? It began to change in the second half last year. Second half, Castellanos hit 299 with 16 home.

in an 882 OPS. And I think it was overdue based on the quality of the contact he was making all season. His line drive rate was 24.5. His hard contact rate was nearly 45. If you look where he ranks

among the leaders in baseball in those two categories, it is very high. Line drive rate puts him 10th overall, just ahead of Freddie Freeman, by the way, and I'll get back to that in a second. Second, hard contact rate was fifth, best in baseball.

I will say there are a lot of tigers on that leaderboard, I believe. And the reason for that is because this has been discussed on multiple websites. The hard contactometer in Detroit was broken last year. It was broken. Well, Scott, I got to speed you up. Can Nick Castiano, he's basically had the same slash line two straight years. Last year he had 10 triples. He's actually pretty solid triple source, but 10 is a lot.

He's more like a five-triple guy. But about the same slash line, two straight years. And in 2016, that made him about 14th at third base. Last year he was 9th in points, 10th, and Roto. Can you see Castiano's finishing better than 9th or 10th at 3rd? I could see that, yeah. I think he could be what he was in the second half over a full season. The quality of the contact reminds me a lot of Freddie Freeman

and how his batting average were consistently high, batting averages were consistently high, even though his plate discipline would lead you to believe they shouldn't be. And Castellanos is hitting the ball with that same quality. And it could mean that he has a power breakthrough coming up the way Freeman eventually did. He's only 25 years old. Would you guys take Castellanos or Kyle Seeger? Seeger.

I do have Seeger ranked higher, but the fact that Castellanis is also eligible in the outfield, I think I've seen him going earlier than Seeger and in a way that makes sense. So I may have to adjust that. That does help. I mean, if you're playing a five outfielder league, it gets pretty gross.

And by the way, he's probably going to be a full-time outfielder going forward. So that should be what we think of him as in the long term. And Ian Hap, Heath. Yes. Joe Madden, very, very, very smart manager. I don't want to say anything to disrespect him, but play Ian Hap every day. The defensive metrics suggest he is their best defensive center fielder. He was their fourth best hitter last year.

They don't need to platoon him because he's better against lefties than all the other lefties they have that should be platoon like Kyle Schwerver and Jason Hayward. He struck out 31% of the time last year. That's 20, 40%, 30% higher than what he had done basically every year in the first. the minor leagues. I don't expect him to be a 30% strikeout guy. He is going to have elite plate discipline, 9.4% walk rate as a rookie. Very good. He's got the batted ball dad at it to suggest he could hit 30-30 plus home runs.

He may even steal 10 bases for you. The batting average should come up when the strikeout rate goes down. Ian Hap should be a top 10 second baseman as long as Joe Madden just plays him. Okay, well, we'll keep an eye on that. I mean, this is a guy who at 23 years old. He hit 253 with a 328 on base. 514 slugging last year. 24 home runs in 115 games,

and he stole 8 bases as well. 17 doubles, 3-triples. So good stuff for Ian Hap, and those are your breakouts. Let's read some emails. Can I just mention the five players that Heath and I breakouts that Heath and I have in common, because obviously there is more confidence backing these. We mentioned Raphael Devers.

We mentioned Alex Bregman. Also, Ozzy Albi's, Yohan Moncada. and Byron Buxton. Heath and I are both high on their breakout potential. And then I'll tell you the two Yankees that I think are going to break out. Okay. Since that's the only thing I do. Greg Byrd and possibly Aaron Hicks.

I think Aaron Hicks is a sleeper. I almost put him in my sleeper list. I actually have Byrd as a bust based on where he's being drafted, but there is breakout potential there. Understand the bust take as well. Yeah, you don't want to be too high on him because you can get Matt Carpenter pretty late. All right, emails. This is from Adam. Hey, Tom, Greg, John, Steve, and Kent.

The original Brave Super Rotation, right? Kent Merker. It's not the original one. Merker was a reliever in those days. But, yeah, it's a brave starting five there. All right, I'm the commissioner of a 14-teamkeeper league. Been in this league a long time, still yet to win. I'm experimenting with a moneyball-style strategy

where I'm looking for numbers rather than players. For example, I took the top three teams from last year, averaged out all of their offensive categories, assuming 12 hitters, which was 69 runs, 20 homers, 63 RBIs, 9 steals, 358 OBP, 481 slugging. Those are his categories in his 14-team Keeper League. So he took the top three teams, and he looked at the average of their offensive categories, and then he kept his players based on those averages.

He kept Marcelo Zuna, Lindor, Austin Barnes, Stephen Sousa, and Eduardo Nunez. And using this logic, and then he calculated their averages. Using this logic, if I fill the rest of my offensive roster with players that will get my OBP and slugging percentage up a bit, I should be a top three team, right? So, look, I didn't go through all the numbers, but basically you can see what he did.

He tried to do his keepers based on what they're, what the best teams did last year, and then he will draft around the weaknesses of those keepers to try to basically replicate what won the league last year. Does that make sense? Yeah. I thought it was interesting enough to read. I hope I did a decent enough job explaining it.

I don't know. Seems a little risky to me. Rather just keep good players, but what about you? Well, I don't know what players he's not keeping. I don't think he's keeping bad players. I don't know. Austin Barnes, Stephen Susan, and Eduardo Nunez for $10.

That might be a lot for all of them. That's true. Yeah, it is. It's 14 teams. Theodore 28 and OZuna 10, I like those. Yeah. In a 14 team league, especially. But yeah, those others.

And I like Barnes a lot. I talked about him as a sleeper yesterday. I think Nunez is generally undervalued, given that that batting average speed combination is hard to find. but yeah I just $10 doesn't strike me as a value for him and that's usually what you consider in these instances Yeah I don't like I don't love the strategy because it's hard to predict guys stats year to year and you know you're trying to project

What those guys your keepers are going to give you I don't know not feeling it I look at that way more in a roto league and so it makes sense to look at an head-to-head categories league as well Scott do you have to go for video Yes Yes, I do need to go prep for video, so I will bid you adieu. All right, Heath, we'll finish off with the emails, you and me? I would love to. I'd love nothing more.

Perfect. This is an email from Joe Davis. 40-man roster, Unlimited Keeper League. I have Andrews and DeYoung for cheap. What do I do with Willie Adamas? I had Adamas on my roster all year, thinking he'd get real playing time. Can I expect production this year? In what world should I keep Willie Adamas?

I'm having a hard time imagining one. Okay, works for me. This is from Randy. 12-teen head-head points league with three keepers. Two players on four-year max contracts. One on an eight-year max contract. Anyway, I didn't need to read that. The question is this.

What do you think Shohei Otani's six-year ceiling and six-year floor is? I mean, his six... I am going to be a little bit probably of... I don't know if I'd say a spoiler, but maybe a spoiler with Otani and just say that I think his six-year ceiling is that they don't mess around with this whole silly hit and pitch thing, and he becomes a top-10 starting pitcher over the next six years. Okay. His ceiling is that he's not actually all that graded either one. His floor.

His floor. Or floor is that he's not all that graded either one, and he's not somebody that you want to keep in two years. Now, realistically, he's probably going to be a pretty good pitcher, right? I think that if he can stay healthy, he should be a pretty good pitcher over 150 innings. Well, this year. I don't know long-term, yes, this year. Right. This year. I have a hard time projecting him into a 210, 220-in-in-stating pitcher, long-term.

Okay. So you're concerned he won't be like a top five. Fantasy picture. Right. Okay. All right, thank you, Randy, for the question. This is from D. Rock in New Hampshire. Hey, honey nut, cinnamon toast, fruit loops, and honeycomb.

All cereals that make your milk taste delicious. That's the milk you're wasting, fools. Yeah, I don't know. No, I'm still not going to drink the milk. I'm not going to drink the milk. Thank you, D. Rock. Do you agree with him? Absolutely.

Yeah. No, no. Two-part question. Which of your rankings most accurately reflects a head-to-head categories league? Roto, for sure. The problem is that a lot of head-to-head categories leagues are three outfielders and one catcher. So you will have to downgrade catchers and outfielders because our Roto rankings are based on two catchers, five outfielers. And then the second part of this from DRock, believe it or not,

In your specific league, DRock, I think you want the points leagues ranking because OBP and total bases are offensive categories instead of batting average and hits. So OBP is not reflected in our Roto rankings, really, but more so in points. And same with total bases because doubles and triples are rewarded in points leagues, not rewarded in points league, not in Roto. Yeah, I might use points for hitters and Roto for pitchers. Yeah, and then just keep in mind that you're just going to have to do your own sort of evaluation on steals because that is definitely reflected more in our rhodo rankings than points. Right. Dave from Ontario.

Oh, crap, I didn't read the second part. I'm sorry, DRock, I don't have time for your keeper question. I apologize. Why do you hold does not get enough love on your show? RPs, relief pitchers, they have increasingly have a larger role every year, so seems like you're leaving out a major portion of the league. Holds. Yeah, we should do a holds segment on a podcast someday.

I don't want to play in a holds league, personally, but... I don't dislike holds as long as it's an addition. The problem is if it's a 6x by 6 and holds is one, I'm not sure they're that valuable. It almost has to be a 7 by 7. Yeah, but if it is a 6x6 and holds are a category, than, you know, you look at Andrew Miller, Batanzas, assuming he's good again.

Those guys are probably pretty valuable. Not necessarily because of the holds, because they're not going to run away with the holds category. There aren't nearly as many holds as there are saves, but they're going to be so good in the other categories compared to the other holds guys. I think Andrew Miller is undervalued in Roto in Categories leagues, even in leagues where there aren't holds.

Yeah, could be. And here's Scott and Rochester. Dear Post, General Mills, and Kellogg's. Thank you so much for the fascinating milk and cereal discussion. I'm sure it'll help hundreds or thousands of fantasy players. My pressing keeper question can certainly wait or go completely unanswered as most of mine do, despite being better questions than at least some of the ones that get read.

Thanks again. Double exclamation point. Oh, another testimony. Hashtag testimonial. I did respond to Scott's Keeper. question, though, after he wrote this email. So, Scott, you're welcome. Double Exploration Point. Reith Covings is Scott White. I'm Adam Azer. Talk to you tomorrow with Busts.