Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/24: Mookie Betts Trade? Plus a Mailbag! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 24, 2020

Several star players are apparently on the trade market, but Mookie Betts is the biggest name. How much would his value change if he were traded (1:43)? Also, is Mitch Haniger worth drafting now (5:56)? And how do we feel about Starling Marte (10:30) who is also on the trading block? ... Emails (13:28)! Questions about Eduardo Rodriguez as a possible ace (17:31), Yordan Alvarez's position eligibility, players who could really struggle if their HR rate decreases (26:25), saves+holds (31:40) and what to do with the Catcher position when you need to start two of them (37:50) ... Which of 2019's breakout SPs could disappoint this season (39:15)? Shane Bieber? Lucas Giolito? Charlie Morton? And who are our favorite breakouts hitters and SPs (44:00)? We also answer your keeper questions (49:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled and fast. Alvarez and toward the corner. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris.

Emails a plenty. Welcome to the show, Fantasy Baseball today. It is Friday. It's January 24th. I think it will have two to three episodes next week. We definitely wanted to get some of your emails read today, so we will get them at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I'm Adam Mazer.

We've got Chris Towers, not after dark, because we're doing this during the day, but in the dark. Chris, why are the lights never on in the room you're in? I don't know. There is a little lamp, so it's not quite that dark, but there's like a little bit of foil tape over what I assume is the motion detector in this studio,

and so I think you have to, like, actually touch it to get it to turn on and I just didn't touch it touch it Chris go ahead let he put oil tape over that I don't know I don't know I this this was here long before I was it'll be here long after I'm gone

I think that was the same guy in the dorm room who would like put duct tape over his windows you know that guy no I never saw that guy no yeah we didn't we did lots of things in the dorms but maybe I just knew some weirdos Maybe.

I mean, yeah, I have some theories about why they would be doing that, but I don't know if we want to discuss them on fantasy baseball today. I don't think so. All right, that's Scott White and Chris Towers. I'm Adam Mazur, so let's get to it. Boston and San Diego are discussing a deal for mooky bets. It's certainly realistic that he gets traded. I mean, there's a lot of buzz here.

So one thing I did notice about his splits. He hits for a good amount of power on the road, but his batting average, the last four years, it's been worse on the road every single season. home batting average last four seasons 325, 279, 364, 314. Road batting average last four seasons, 301, 251, 331, and 275. Career 319 hitter at home, career 285 hitter on the road. So if Mookie Betts were to get traded, Scott, let's say to San Diego, do you think it would have a big impact on his value?

he has been in two of the last four years the number one hitter in fantasy in the other two years he's been slightly disappointing but still great. For star level players like that, I rarely think it's going to have a big impact on his value. I would prefer him stay in Boston. But I mean, honestly, I would be very surprised if he's traded.

I think the most likely scenario he gets traded is sort of like when the Orioles traded Nanny Machado late the year before he entered free agency and they traded into the Dodgers. I just feel like with where

the way the economics work in the game right now and the way talent is evaluated and rosters are constructed there just isn't really a match for a Buckey Betts trade entering the last year of his contract.

I think it would have to be owner initiated like the owner would have to demand from on high that his general manager do this because he is so invested in getting a win for this year. I just don't think any general manager would be compelled to pull the trigger on the kind of return that the Red Sox would request for Moogie Betts. Then you don't think he's going to get traded, right? Right. That's what I'm saying. No, like, I mean, even during the season. Well, it would be, it would be a situation where the Red Sox gave in and said, fine, we're not going to get what we want, but it's better than getting nothing, kind of like the Orioles did with Mandy Machia.

The Orioles were a bad team. There's almost no way the Red Sox are anything but very competitive this year. Last year was this giant disaster for the Red Sox, and they won 84 games and they had a Pythag record of 87 and 75. And that's with getting like basically nothing from their bench, a downseason from Andrew Ben and Tendee, a downseason for Mookie Betts and Jamie. They're almost certainly going to be something like a 90-win team next year. So there's just no way that if they don't trade him before the season,

there's no way they're pulling the plug on it. Okay. I mean, I wasn't as totally convinced they were making postseason push as you sound like you are, but you could absolutely be right. Yeah, they didn't get much from Chris Sale, obviously last year either. He had a bad year by

his standards. Betts went forth overall. More interesting than the trades are the steals, because he only stole 16 bases last year and previous three seasons. I think he had been between 26 and 30 steals. So, yeah, 26, 26, 30, and 16. He did go, Moogie Betts won fourth overall in the roto draft we did last week.

Acuna, Trout, Yelich, Betz, Bellinger, five outfielders to start the draft. Bellinger also first base eligible. But, you know, we just, we know how valuable those steals are. can we make an educated guess about how many steals mooky bets will have this year?

Yeah, we can make an educated guess. What do you think? But it's the sort of thing where the difference between 10 and 20 is huge in terms of what it means to your fantasy team, but not so huge in terms of

the approach mooky bets takes. I would split the difference in say 20 is what I'm expecting for mooky bets. But if there's a wide range there, what he could potentially do. Okay. Mitch Hanager is going to miss probably about a month. He's having core muscle surgery. I heard on last Friday show, Heath talking about Hanager as a sleeper, obviously before this news. Hanager, you know, was probably something like a eighth round pick, seventh round pick, something like that last year and now much lower because he had a bad year. Bad at 220 and his strikeout rate was just through the roof. Chris, do you see any reason to draft Hanager and stash him in an I.L spot? Not in a three outfield league, maybe a five outfield league, but he's sort of fringy in a three outfield

context anyway, so I'm just stealing what Scott said on Twitter last night. Oh, okay. Well, but you know, who is he? Because last year was crazy with all the strikeouts, and he's currently going 182nd overall, Mitch Hanigar. You know, Scott, this was a guy who was a top 12 outfielder in 2018, and in 2017, he had almost, he basically the same slash line. He just didn't play as many games.

He played only 96 games. So he's basically performed like a top 20 outfielder, maybe more like top 18 or so, two years in a row and was top 12 in 2018. Well, two out of the last three years, because last year was tough. Yeah, I think because 2017 and 2018 were more or less the same,

just a playing time difference. Like you said, that's probably closer to who he is. but I mean he's had a lot of disruptions physically over the past year and because of that I would be more concerned about that than the fact he happened to strike out a lot during a partial season last year I mean that's not ideal obviously

but that's not what's going to scare me away from them okay I'll just say one last thing he's better on the road and that makes sense so Seattle's a bad park for hitters if he gets traded and they trade everyone, you know, they haven't made a trade in a long time for them. So if he gets traded... Drawls.

Yeah, they could help Hanigers value a lot. Former Mariner, speaking of which, Scott, you don't want to know why Scott's so good at Fantasy Baseball? We were doing a prospect-only draft last night, and he drafted Nelson Cruz. So it's shenanigans like that, Scott, that, you know, have made you one of the best of the business. business. Yes, needless to say, that pick didn't go over well. I had to retract it.

Yes, it was an auto pick. It was quite funny, but we did two prospect only drafts last night. What's the deal with what's on the website? Give us a hint of what's coming up, what people can see in terms of drafts, in terms of content. Yes, Chris, this is your team as well. So much. We've got my position previews for the 2020 season, so I went through every position, did little write-ups for each of Scott's top 12 players at the position. I did like three to five other players to know outside of the top 12, a sleeper, a breakout and a bus for each position. And I included Scott's top prospect write-ups for each position.

So pretty much everything you would want to know for each position in a neat little package there. Those are all going up today on CBSports.com slash fantasy. We also had a mock draft earlier this week. Our first Roto draft of 2020, I believe. we'll have those two prospect only drafts likely going up today ahead to head to head, Anna Roto with some of the best prospect writers in the industry.

And then at some point early next week, Scott White will have his sleepers breakouts and bus 1.0. And then next week, I believe Scott and I will be working on some, we'll be doing the case four and the case against drafting each of the players in the top 200. We did that last year for baseball and football, and people seem to like it.

So we'll have that probably maybe by the end of next week. A lot of stuff going on on spotsports.com. Mock drafts galore, too, from beginning this week, basically right up until opening day on March 26th, we're going to have two mock drafts, at least two, every week. And a wide variety of formats. We're going to be a little more dynasty focused this year. As Chris mentioned, just last night, we did two prospects-only drafts for the, the main two formats that people plan on our site,

points in roto. And then we're also going to have two dynasty startup drafts for also the same formats, the traditional roto format and head-to-head points. Starling Marte might get traded. That's our last news item. Then we'll get to your emails. And there's some buzz about that.

Last year, he was the number 13 outfielder in Roto. He was top 20 in points, and Starling Marte only played 132 games. He hasn't played more than 100. 145 games in four seasons. 129.7. There was a suspension in there, but 12977, 145, 132. He gets hurt all the time.

Older than you think, too. Yeah. And he's 31. And Marte, you know, the batting average jumped back up to 295. The power was up, season, a career high, 23 homers. He had a really good year. He slugged 503. He had never slugged higher than 460. So I think he's a really,

interesting player because he's there, you know, people I think take Marte in a Roto League, like end of round three. And the steals have been reliable, but they're not elite anymore. And if he's hitting 275, like he did in 2017, 2018, he's not nearly as valuable as, you know, the consistent, really good batting average guy that he had been before that. And he was again in 2019. So, you know, how do you feel about Marte, Starling Marte? Scott White? pretty high on him. I certainly feel better about him than he did than I did it this time a year ago. Of course, he's coming off what was basically a career season when this time last year he was coming off a career of worst season and it looked like maybe the skills were beginning to erode. Clearly they weren't. I mean, you mentioned the batting average hasn't been as reliable the past couple of years. Obviously, he traded off with some power last year. But beyond that, he actually had a career high XBA last year. It seems like he had bad luck in terms of what he delivered in batting average. It was one of the top 10 or 15 expected batting averages and all the baseball.

So I think the skills are definitely there. Is he running as much? No, but is he running enough to make a significant impact in that category, given how the league as a whole is running right now? Yes, absolutely. Cool. All right. Chris, I know you just promoted a hell of a lot of stuff.

Did you talk about the newsletter? No. Last thing. Go for it. You should sign up for the Fantasy Baseball Today newsletter so that you can get all of that great content delivered right into your inbox. Pretty much every single day, probably not on the weekends. I need to take some time off too. But other than that, you'll get the best fantasy baseball content delivered right in your inbox.

It's CBSports.com slash newsletters slash fantasy dash baseball dash today. I believe. Okay, well, that's quite a URL. But CBSports.com slash newsletters, right? Yeah, you can go there and there's a little button you can click it and it'll send it right there. I think that's a little bit easier. Let's read some emails, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. All right.

So this is the last one of this series that we're going to read. It's been about the categories in the Wild Wild West pitching leagues where, you know, you can just do all relievers basically. So we read that email from Mario yesterday where he said, He added home run to fly ball rate. Was that it was? Home run per nine? Home run per nine.

That's what I meant. To favor starting pitchers. And Scott and I were like, dude, what did you say? It wasn't home runs per nine. It was home runs allowed. Home runs allowed? Yes. Okay.

And we were like, dude, that doesn't help starting pitchers. That helps relievers. And so he clarified, in a Wild Wild West five by five, teams tend to stream a ton of starting pitchers each week while scooping up as many closers as possible. It becomes a race to see who can throw the most starts each week regardless of talented matchup. This severely impacts the draft. The starting pitcher slide so far that the relievers start to go before most of the SP2s. We didn't like this, and I believe that was the main issue.

So we added the home run-aloud category so teams couldn't stream a ton of starts each week, which in turn restored value back to the top and the middle class of starting pitchers. It also creates a situation where you start to play matchups. Okay, less random numbers game, more strategy. So I think that's what it was, Scott. In this particular format, and I do think this was one of those two starters, two relievers, and three pitcher spots. Adding home runs allowed prevented teams from completely ignoring starting pitcher

basically during drafts and just streaming all the time to get counting stats because that negative category really hurt that and it made them focus more on starting pitchers in the draft and actually drafting good ones.

Well, okay. I mean, this introduces another series of questions such as this a daily or weekly format, how often are waivers? It's daily, it's daily. It's daily, and I assume it's with daily waiver. I just think daily leagues

with daily waivers. or free ad drops is a bad idea because, yeah, I mean, you could, like, if you're good, if you want to play daily fantasy, make waivers run once a week to prevent people from doing this. And that's a much neaterer way of doing it than trying to consider the collateral damage of introducing or removing categories. Chris, tell him he's wrong. I'm fine with weekly waiver runs. In a daily league?

Yeah. To prevent this. What's the downside to doing that? You can't beat all your friends to the waiver wire that night to pick up. But that's not the best way of playing anyway because it just basically rewards the person who happens to have the most optimal schedule. Let's get it this way. In a baseball game, first pitches at 705, you can make a roster move up until the game starts. Once the game starts, you're locked into that 25-man roster.

You can make all the lineup changes and pinch hitters and pinch runners that you want, but you can't add a guy in the fourth inning to your 25-man roster who wasn't there at the start of the game. Yeah, but you can do that the next day. You don't have to wait a week to call somebody up if one of your guys gets hurt. The week is your game. Okay, but it's not, though, because there are so many games within the game. It's not like football where the guys are playing once. I have a weekly...

I have a daily league with daily transactions. You are allowed seven transactions per week, but less than that for the year. You have like 80 or something transactions for the year. I mean transaction limits is another way to combat it. Yes. Yours are a little too draconian, but I am all about transaction limits.

Okay, that's it for that. Let's go to this one, Ryan and St. Louis. Hey, Bobby, Gervais, and Ricardo. Rikis. After looking at Scott White's tears, I'm confused by where he has tiered Eduardo Rodriguez. I remember after the season, he said the numbers led him to think that Erod could be an ace innings, strikeouts, wins, but he is not tiered that way, and the fantasy baseball world is demanding to know why and discuss. Eduardo Rodriguez.

I think the point I was making that he's referring to was more how much of an oddity Eduardo Rodriguez season is because, yes, my loose standard for an ace is somebody that you can reasonably expect 200 innings and 200 strikeouts from. And Eduardo Rodriguez happened to meet those thresholds last year. But overall, it's not like you look at the rest of the stat line and thinks this guy is an ace. And it's not like you have a great deal of confidence he's going to repeat either of those numbers. So I think he's, I think he's less than an ace. I think he's somebody that can be relied on at a position where, you know, the number of reliable options quickly runs out, but he's not an ace. Chris, what do you think about Rodriguez? He was 15th in

points. He was 19th in Roto. And if I could make the case for him, I would say that, you know, you look at a guy like Trevor Bauer, who became an ace. Now, last year, I don't know what the hell happened. But he became an ace. After the All-Star break makes, basically, of 2017, he was amazing in 2018, and he changed his arsenal. He made a change that we can point to. I think you might be able to say the same thing about Eduardo Rodriguez. In his last 24 starts, he started throwing

his sinker more, and he got more ground balls. He stopped being so dependent on the fly balls, and he went 15 and 3 with a 321 ERA. And this is a guy who's never had a season with an ERA under 381, and it was 321 in his last 24 starts. So that's the case for him. The case against him is basically what Scott said. I mean, just like, the whip is awful. He's just a terrible whip guy.

133 whip. Clearly not an ace whip. Every year it's bad, too. So, and even, I'm sorry, last thing, even in that great stretch, those 24 starts, it was 1-2-8. So where are you on, Eduardo Rodriguez? I just think the simplest explanation for him is you look at the last three years, his FIPP is 397, 365, 386.

You know, there's been a lot of fluctuation in how he's been viewed, but how he's actually pitched has been startlingly consistent. If you look at K per 9, walks per 9, home runs per 9, hits per 9, whip. You know, the ERA's fluctuated a little bit, but that's what ERA does. And so I just think, like, yeah, you can look at 24 starts and maybe there, but the most likely explanation is he's just a high three's low fours, ERA guy with a lot. of strikeouts who will hurt you and whip and that's a decent pitcher to have around you know a 381 era in 2019 2020 assuming it's a similar offensive environment is comparable to what like a

three four er a used to be in terms of the number of guys who can give you that and so like he has value he's just not he's not great and you know a lot of him finishing what 15th and 13th you said. 15th and 19th. That's 19 wins. And he's not going to win 19 games again next year. Yeah. You wonder if the Arsenal change was different.

Also, one thing that Eduardo Rodriguez never did was go deep into games, except his rookie season, his first, this is amazing. His first two starts of his career were seven innings, two or fewer earn runs. He did that six times in his rookie season. In his next three seasons, he did that five times. and then last year he did that seven innings nine times. So, okay, so sorry, I sort of mixed up the staff. But last year he had nine starts of seven innings,

the three previous seasons he had a combined five starts of seven or more innings. So he certainly got better. We'll see if Krenz comes over to this year. Let's talk about where he's going. Eduardo Rodriguez is going 112th overall. Just in front of Madison Bumgarner and Zach Wheeler and Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco, to me, continue.

to be the best draft value if he's really going 117th, that's ridiculous. It's, yeah, Carlos Carrasco is, I would much rather have him than any of those guys. But like Rodriguez being in the same group as Madison, Bumgarner, and Zach Wheeler, that makes perfect sense. I just think Carasco's a much better value. That's easy, though. So how would you rank Rodriguez, Bumgarner, and Wheeler? Uh, I don't know.

Do you have a three-sided die that I could use? Yeah, Scott. He actually does it. I rank them Wheeler Bumgarner and then Eduardo Rodriguez

though I hesitate on the Bumgarner there because I'm not confident I'm not confident he's going to be that that useful now that he's out of San Francisco

the home away splits were so extreme the past two years but there are some encouraging things he did last year too so for now I'm going to even the head of Eduardo Rodriguez. Give me Zach Gallen over all of them. Brent from Coupar, Scotland.

You know they have a... Chris, they have a big tournament in Coupar, Scotland all the time. You know the trophy they win? The Coupar Cup? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm solid. That's good. I haven't heard anything about this,

which may be my answer. But is there any chat of Jordan Alvarez playing another position and gaining... Who? I know you, okay, I'll get back to that. And gaining some extra eligibility, because right now Alvarez is only, DH only. Yes, the double only. Yeah, sure.

I mean, he made a few starts in the outfield last year. 10. I think he made nine starts, 10 appearances, buddy. Yeah. And that was only in what half the season in the majors. So it only takes five appearances at a position to gain eligibility there. the harder standard is going from one season to the next 20 games to retain it. But I can see him getting five appearances in the outfield, definitely.

Yeah, and he had nine starts in the outfield, four of them, or five of them, yeah, four of them, were in NL Parks. So I looked at their schedule, and he didn't play like every, he didn't start every game in the outfield, inner league at NL Parks. Like, I'm thinking, I'm thinking by the all-star break, Alvarez will probably have it. And it could be much earlier than that. Look, if there's an injury to someone, then he might get those five much earlier. But at some point, he'll probably be outfield eligible. And I went with Jordan, because I've been saying Jordan,

we were told it was Jordan by Jim Bowden, who knows this stuff. Like, Jim Bowden, I think said that the GM of the Astros, the former. I think that's who he said. Luno told him it's Jordan. But I don't know, man. Like, I keep hearing it on broadcast as Jordan. I know. I'll switch it tomorrow.

it makes you want to pull your hair out. Here's a, here's a, a Yordon, Jordan, Alvarez take. You guys ready? Yeah, sure. It is bananas that he's going 50 spots ahead of Nelson Cruz. It is absolutely absurd.

I think that's more of a Nelson Cruz take than an Alvarez take though. Right. Like, the DH only slash utility only players generally get pushed down, and that's not happening with it. Alvarez this year. Well, I was going to say, I was going to say, I started to say something before Adam started

talking about the name again. But of the DH only guys, the only one who I don't see picking up eligibility somewhere else at some point this season is Nelson Cruz. Like, he's the one who seems firmly entrenched as DH only. I do think he's a great value, but I mean, there's more risk there. He's 39 years old. Eventually, you just stop being good. Yeah. happen. But no, I would say, okay, last thing on this, if they

play the same amount of games, and this is the thing about Cruz, he was really, stayed very healthy, but the last two years, 144 games and 120 games, if they play the same amount of games, who would you rather have, Alvarez or a Cruz? I'll take Cruz.

Same. Alvarez. Okay. Alvarez was so good last year, my goodness. All right, Miami Mike, subject line. Who can be a poopie diaper? Dear, loves Honest and Alan and Little Angels. I'm thinking those are diapers. Yeah.

Yeah. I'm a pamper swadler guy myself. For my side, not for me. For me, it's... Now, the pamper swaddler. Yeah. I go hugs for myself. Yeah, for me it's loves. Part of the subject, but I have a one month old and change diapers while listening to you guys.

If there is any tweak to the baseball this year to decrease the pop-up home runs, who could be a poopy diaper? It's Helmarte, Glamortez, Josh Bell, DJ LeMayhew, are some thoughts. Who could be a poopy diaper, Chris, if the ball changes and we get fewer homers? Yeah, I think any of the big breakout guys from last year are going to be the most obvious candidates. I'm actually looking for, I saw a tweet a couple of days ago that was like the players who had the most home runs that just barely went over the fence.

And I think those kind of guys, once I can find that list, will, will probably, you would figure. they would probably stand to lose the most. Yeah. Yeah, that would be my guess. Home Run Tracker. ESPN Home Run Tracker used to make that stuff very readily accessible, but it doesn't exist anymore. So I've had a hard time figuring out where to get that information now.

But, I mean, of the players you named here, the ones who stand out the most are, to me, the ones that I would speculate. I don't know, where is the email here? Okay, would be LaMayhew and Catalmarte. But as I said on our last podcast, like, I don't even think, this isn't even an idea I really want to entertain because there isn't going to be a conscious change to the baseball. The results of the MLB study pretty much told us that. So it may change just because there are discrepancies in. manufacturing, but it wouldn't be by design.

So the timing of it seems impossible to account for. One thing that we have talked about in the past is, you know, how do you find that person who's going to be maybe a sophomore slump or not back up, you know, a breakout year? And I like to look at well-rounded players who do a lot of things. And the guys who don't fit that category to me are more likely to be busts. And if you just look at the numbers, that's Glauber Torres, because he wasn't really good at anything other than hitting home runs. And obviously the runs and the RBIs that come with that and that come with being in the Yankees lineup.

But I don't really, like that exists, but I still think that he's still an ascending player who's only 23 years old. And I think he'll become a more well-rounded player. But I guess if home runs dropped dramatically and Glaber Torres doesn't really have much to fall back on, that could be a big problem. And I think the contrast between him and Ozzie Albies is so fun. They are statistically anyway, based on last year, they are like completely opposite players, right? Where Albies does a little bit of everything,

and Glaber Torres does one thing. And it's like they go similarly. They're both, I think they're the same age. They play the same position. Kind of an interesting side-by-side comparison between those two guys. So here's one about Glaber. I looked it up. I can't find the tweet I was referring to,

but I did find some research that I did, specifically since you brought up Glaber Torres, because he's going as like a top 30, top 36 pick right now. And if he's more of like a 32 homer guy, it's probably, and 32 homers is a lot, but that's probably not enough to justify his cost.

And so I looked it up. You know, he, I believe, tied a modern major league record with 13 home runs in 18 games against the Orioles. Last season, I did some research. Since 1969, 11 players have hit at least 11 home runs against one team in a season.

They collectively averaged 53.2 home runs per season in that season with a median of 52. The following year, that group averaged 40.9 home runs per season, prorated to the same playing time because some of those guys missed a lot of time, a median of 37. So, you know, that would be relative to his 38.

That would be something like 30, you know, 28 to 32 home runs, let's say. And none of the 11 in that group hit more home runs the following season. Only Sammy Sosa in 1998, Jim Tomey in 2002, and Dale Murphy in 1983, hit even 90% as many home runs

the following season. So that would get him to about 33. So history suggests that what he did last year specifically picking on the Orioles so much and then kind of just, you know, not being nearly as good against everyone else,

suggest that he is a pretty good regression candidate. And I think I chose him as my bust for either shortstop or second base. Okay, that's Glaber Torres. I do wonder, though, if this is the year where his plate discipline gets better, he starts recognizing, you're just controlling the strikes. Like, if he just becomes a better player this year. But if he doesn't and he just has to rely on the home runs, then he could be a poopie diaper at second or short.

This is from Joel. I'm in a head-to-head 10-category 12-te-team league. it has saves plus holds instead of saves. With the new three batter rule for relievers, how will this affect holds? Who gets bumped up in value? Would it be closers or the elite eighth inning guys? Is there any change here in saves plus holds?

Hold specifically with the new three batter rule, and that is pitcher has to face, if he comes in, if he comes in an inning, he has to face three hitters unless he ends the inning, right? or there's a pinch hitter or does that not matter? I don't remember hearing that. Ignore me. I will.

But I, you know, this hasn't been something I've been reflecting on at great length either. So, I mean, there would have to be fewer holds, right? If there's going to be fewer guns, there would have to be fewer holds.

There would be, you would think fewer collectively, but they might be more concentrated. Right, right. So I would think the elite established set up, and the ones with the clearest eighth inning role, would see the biggest boost here in leagues where the holds matter. And...

Can I just jump in here? Just be a greater scarcity there. I mean, there's only one type of player that's affected by this, and it's the Lugis, right? the left-handed one-out guys. And those guys are never rostered. I mean, I've never played in a league that has holds, but I can't imagine they're often rostered.

Like, you know, we're not talking about Andrew Mill. There are some righty specialists who come in for, like, partial innings, too. I mean, it's not just the lefty guys. I guess, but this trend has been going away of one-out relievers. I don't think this is going to have a huge impact. Honestly, I do think, though, you're going to have relievers go out there and get kind of shelled at times, and they can't get taken out as early as normal, because they have to face three batters, right?

I mean, it's weird. Right. I would expect that ERAs among relievers as a whole are going to go up. But among the very best relievers, no, because they're already used to facing both hands hitters. The way I approach closers, I don't really care. Like, once we've established that a guy is a closer, I don't really care about saves. I'll just draft whoever the best closer is and hope that they get enough saves to make it worth it as the, as the closer. And I'll view, you know, middle relievers and set up men the same way. I'll just try to go get the best guys. Like, you look at the

holds leaders and it's Zach Britton and Will Harris and Ryan Presley and Craig Stammon. And it's a lot of guys who are just really good relievers for the most part. And it's so hard to predict holds and saves because they're as much about manager behavior and situation as they are what the pitcher can actually control. And we can't really predict those things all that well. So just when you're looking at a saves plus holds league, when you're looking at a holds league,

when you're looking at saves, just get the best guys that you can. Okay. So I'm going to give us a time limit on the next few emails so we can get to some more. So how about this one from Ryan and Fredericksburg? Dear Jimmy, Kyle, Patrick, and Andy. Got it? Jimmy Kyle, Patrick, and Andy?

That would be Super Bowl quarterbacks and coaches. Chris, I'm going to give this one to you. Five-by-five-headed categories league. We use runs, total bases, RBIs, steals, and on-base percentage. For hitters, we use strikeouts, quality starts, saves, ERA, and WIP for pitchers. interesting order in which you've listed those categories, unconventional. Total bases and OBP reward extra base hits and walks, unlike home runs and batting average. And quality starts is pretty obviously better than wins. Can you make the case for changing any of the

categories? I don't think quality starts are obviously better than wins, especially in an era where nobody really goes six innings anymore. I guess you can say that a six, a guy going six innings is more exceptional these days. And so you might want to reward exceptionality as a skill. But, you know, three-armed runs and six innings is pretty meh. So I'm not a big, like I don't have a preference on quality starts versus win. I know that makes me a bit of a Luddite, but I just, I think they're both random and not all that indicative of actual skill. Can I add something because I don't know that I've heard a good explanation for why innings wouldn't work as a category replacing quality starts and wins.

I mean, obviously, if it's a situation where people can exploit the waiver wire like they do with the excessive streaming of pitchers, then okay, that makes it easy to exploit. That's it right there. That's it right there. But, I mean, you can obviously set up the rules to avoid that just like you should to avoid. the excessive streaming of pitchers. So, I mean, like that just sounds like an indirect problem. I don't know.

Because then you are just so much more inclined to go with a two-star pitcher over any one-star pitcher. I mean, you can win the category. Let's say you're setting your lineup once per week. Innings, I just think it's too easy to... I mean, it's definitely... Yeah, it's definitely easier to predict

who's going to get the most innings in a given week than who's going to get the most quality starts and wins. But that's, you know, part of the issue people have with both of those categories, quality starts and wins, is how unpredictable they are. So it's, I don't know, I guess it's just where you want to fall on that predictability spectrum. All right, this is from Mark.

I'm in a 12-team two-catcher auction points league. Scott, I'll give this one to you. So it's 12 teams, two-catcher auction points league. How much do I add to the value of the top catchers? In football, the quarterbacks are given double the value in a 2 QB league as opposed to a 1 QB league. Should I be willing to pay double the auction value if necessary to buy a top tier catcher? Or is there an amount, say, $10 out of a $260 budget that you would suggest I add to their value? People overthink the two catcher league so much.

Like, yeah, there aren't many good catchers. So everybody's going to have a bad second catcher. Like, it's just not that big of a deal. Yeah, basically. In fact, I wouldn't mind spending on, like, catchers 8 and 9 or something like that and having two respectable ones for a pretty low cost. But I have no problem going the other way and just having two clunkers there and, you know, positioning myself better at other positions.

Those are, though, Scott, like those are in leagues in which you play two catchers, five outfielders, D.H., corner infield and middle infield. don't know the rest of this lineup, but in a league like that where you have two catchers, but you also have a ton of other hitters, I've seen too many player, too many fantasy managers win the league with crappy catchers. I'm just not going to be paying up for catcher. You know? Yeah. All right. This is from Mikey. He says, hey, Alan. Ha, ha, ha. Somebody called me Allen last week. It was really weird. Which starting pitcher breakout from last year should we be cautious about this year, kind of like a Zach Godley or Nick Povetta from years past.

Bieber, Gialito, Morton, et cetera, who would you be cautious about? The guys with longer track records who had the one-year breakout are always more risky than someone like Walker Bueller who, yes, he was a one-year breakout or Shane Bieber, yes, they were one-year breakouts, but, you know, there's not a ton backing up that they weren't good. So I would say, you know, yeah, Gialito seems like a perfect example of that. Now, I like Gialito, and I actually, I'll draft him because I don't think the price is, is all that high, but the guy with the bigger track record, and I'll say also the smaller the sample size. So like Tyler Glass now is being drafted as a top 24 starting pitcher based on like 55 innings, I think, or 69 innings, something like

that, I'm really wary of buying in on that. He's going later than Gialito, which I guess makes sense. 23 spots after Gialito, according to fantasy pros. So, actually, 19 spots. Who would you rather have Gialito 55th or Glass Now 74th? Gialito. Yeah, 20 picks difference. I think I'm, I mean, I rank Gialito higher, but I think I might go Glass now.

Is Eduardo Rodriguez an unacceptable answer here? I mean, according to ADP, I'm okay with how we're valuing Eduardo Rodriguez, but he was top 15, top 20 pitcher last year, and we just had somebody asking if he's an ace. I mean, it was clearly the best season of his career, so it was a breakout season, and we clearly think he's going to perform at that level again.

Yeah, but the price is, this is the problem with fantasy baseball, 2020. Everyone's sharp now. Yeah, it's true. It's a lot harder to find, like, it's pretty easy to find guys that I like. It's a lot harder these days to find guys who are

just being way overvalued, I think. I think Steven Straussberg's being overvalued. He's going 23rd overall, and he stayed healthy. He made a World Series run. I'm not confident that he's going to be able to do that, that he's going to be able to do that again. I mean, through 209 innings, we know his track record.

And I think he's a great, great pitcher. I really do. But you can't completely ignore the fact that he's had kind of a high ERA for an elite pitcher. Of all the pitchers that finished in the top 12 in fantasy points last year, he had the highest ERA at 332. You know, there are going to be a number of pitchers who have like a 280-ish sub-3 ERA. Some might have a 250. He's not going to be that guy. It seems, you know, he's really only done that once since 2012. So I think Strasbourg is going to early, 23rd overall. And it's mostly because of injury concerns.

I think he's a guy. But, I mean, we're kind of changing what we're talking about now because he wasn't a breakout pitcher last year. Oh, okay. I mean, that's fair. All right, so do you have an answer, Scott? What Rodriguez is for you? Chris said Glass Now, I wonder about Beber.

Like, do you think it was legit with him? He was the number, he was a top six pitcher. He... I think he's a little lucky. Yeah, I think he's a little lucky, but it seems pretty damn good. but he gives up some home runs. He gives up 31 homers. He's not great at home.

He's great on the road. I don't know. Beber feels like he could go a little early. I'll say this and look, there probably is going to be some busts among this group. Oh, yeah. It just stands to reason there will be. But I did not consider any of them

in putting together my bust list. I did not even consider them because there isn't an obvious red flag to me. Yeah, well, the last one I'll say, because he was brought up in the email, again, I think on a per-er-inning basis, he's going to be great. He is great. It's Charlie Morton. But again, he doesn't stay healthy, and he did last year, and you might get burned on that. He's got an extensive injury history. But, like, I think he's been pretty healthy the last three years now. But he faded down the stretch two years ago pretty badly. So I questioned, I questioned his stamina, I guess. or maybe it was just fluky. But the other thing about him is that he did not throw more than 108 pitches in any game.

So you know how the rays are with their starting pitchers. So if he takes a little bit of a step back and he's not quite as efficient, I think it's a really good pitcher. I don't know if he's going to be an ace. But I think what Scott said is true. I don't see an obvious bust like he's not that good in there. From Jeff and Cedar Rapids, the most likely batter to break out this year is.

The most likely pitcher to break out this year is. singling out a most likely I'm going to say J.D. Davis is the most likely hitter to break out this year. And the most likely pitcher to break out, I'm going to say is Zach Gallen. Oh, you took mine. Ah, sorry.

Okay, I like that. I went with with a question mark most likely pitcher to break out James Paxton is exactly what we were saying about of Water Rodriguez. If you want to see, you see improvement at a point in the season,

was there a reason for it? And yes, in his last 11 starts, he went 10 and 0 with a 251 ERA, 20 walk, 69 strikeouts, six home runs allowed in 61 innings, and a 0.95 whip. He did that facing Boston twice, facing the Dodgers once, Texas twice.

That's a good lineup. That's about half of the starts. He started throwing his breaking ball more. And I don't know why he was like a one-pitch pitcher for a while with the Yankees. Made no sense. Started throwing his breaking ball more. And another thing with the Yankees is I do, I'm pretty intrigued by who they hired as their pitching coach, even though I can't remember his name.

But he comes from the Indians organization. They have a great track record with Yon. pitchers. The pitchers that were quoted about it from the Indians really liked them. So I think he can bring a more of an analytical view and kind of change things up for the Yankees pitchers. I think Paxton's awesome. It just has to stay healthy. But he goes a lot earlier than Zach Allen. I got mine. Okay. Julio Reus. Oh, I was going to say him too. Yeah. His ADP is right around 50th at the starting pitcher. And he is really picture eligible. This is going to be, we're going to have to talk about this

at some point, but this could be an all-time great spark season. There are so many really high-level, high-potential sparks this year. I'm really excited about it. And my hitter most likely to break out, Corey Seeger. I'm not usually a fan of the arbitrary endpoints. I make fun of it a lot. Full-season statistics are more predictive than. A lot of statistics.

But in his case, he was coming back from hip and elbow surgeries and was abysmal in the month of April with an OPS below 700 from that point on. He hit 282 with an OPS right around 850 with a 162 game pace of 28 homers, 58 doubles, 124 RBI and 102 runs. He's always looked a lot like Freddie Freeman in the peripherals and the early season production, or early career production. And it wasn't until his age 26 season that Freddie Freeman broke out, became a legitimate power hitter and an elite fantasy option.

And I'll give you one guess as to how old Corey Seeger will be this season. season. 41. Yep. 41? Adam. Okay, great. Cool.

Pete from St. Pete. That's fun. Scott mentioned he doesn't have Vladimir Guerrero in his top 12 third baseman, stating that there are proven guys ahead of him, but also that it's a ridiculously deep position. With the position so deep, wouldn't you want to put a player with so much potential higher?

There will be so many viable options to fall back on. Why not try to get a guy who has the upside of number one at the position? Okay. You say there will be so much. many guys to fall back on, but they're going to get drafted too. So if you want that to be true, you're going to have to make

an investment in a second third basement as Vladimir Guerrero insurance, and is that the way you want to structure your draft? If we're talking a shallow league, like 10 teams, then I think there's merit to that argument. I mean, somebody like Justin Turner in a 10 team league, you might be there

the last round or two. But 12 teams are deeper. I think, look, you may just end up with a second third basement because there's so many good ones that may just happen by accident. But it's just not something, especially knowing the quality of player I'm passing up in round five, I think, is where Vladimir Guerrero goes on average. I mean, you could get one of the aces there.

You can get a true ace there when the pitchers you're looking at later in the draft. would obviously be bad. I'm just comfortable passing them up there, taking a Matt Chapman or Josh Donaldson or whatever. I mean, any of 14 other third basemen who are more proven and who would be perfectly

satisfactory starters than crossing my fingers that this is the year it all goes right for Vladimir Guerrero. Okay, we're going to spend the last 10 minutes of the show on Keeper Questions. Chris, we're going to give this one to you. Then Scott and Chris So this is from Ricky Booby.

That's a better movie than the Ricky Bobby one. Dear Harry Lloyd, Pedy, and Mary. Chris? Who's Peaty? Petey's the parrot. Yeah. Oh. Petey didn't have a head.

Okay. 16 team head-to-head categories. It's six by six. I can keep four of the following. So who should I keep no round restrictions? Jose Ramirez, DJ LeMayhew, Josh Bell, Gallo, Brantley, Muncie, Mansi,

Mancini, Severino, Cindergarde, and Brrios. Oh, boy. I think you go. Is it crazy to say Ramirez and then the three pitchers? I don't think so. I think that's where the ADP is. Maybe Burios is probably higher or lower than Lamehue and Bell, but I would imagine Severino and Cindergarde are going to cost more

than the likes of Lamehue, Josh Bell, Joey Gallo this season. And so in that instance, I'd rather keep... the guys who would cost more to reacquire and hope that I can go get players who are cheaper after, if that makes sense. Okay, this is from John Scott. He's in a 12-team, six-by-six-six keeper league, and we can keep six players with three-year contracts, with the player value moving up one round each year. So he's got Raamuto, Flaherty, Clevenger, and Jordan Alvarez.

I already screwed it up. That's four. Now he needs two more. Jose Ramirez in the fifth round, but the last year of his contract. Brandon Woodruff in the 16th round for three years. Joe Adele in the 24th round for three years. Go with two of those. I would go with Ramirez and Woodruff.

Next email is from Kevin in Detroit. 10 team six by six categories league, with quality starts and OBP ad. Pick two keepers, Chris. Walker Bueller, Jack Flaherty, Pete Alonzo, Jordan Alvarez. Walker Bueller and Jack Flaherty. Scott, this is from James E in New York City. Dear Will, Ryan and John.

So, James listens to like all of our shows. This is the Pick Six podcast. It's a great show, by the way. If you want some Super Bowl content, we'll have it on Fantasy Football today, but also Pick Six. I'd listen to their Eli Manning Emergency Podcast. They were thrown out stats that I, I had not heard or seen anywhere else.

It was really interesting. So about him being a Hall of Famer or whether or not he should be. So, yeah, check out the Pick Sixth podcast. 12 team Keeper League. Everyone keeps two. It's categories. Heated categories. Breggman in round two.

Castillo in round eight. Alonzo in round 12 or Paddock in round 14. Who would you keep? Bregman in round two, Castillo and eight. Alonzo in 12, Paddock in 14. I would keep... Uh, Bregman and Alonzo. I'm not, I'm not answering any of these questions with confidence.

These are some, these are some really tough choices you guys have. And I have to come up with an answer on the spot. So, I would think you have Alonzo ranked higher than Castillo and certainly Paddock anyway. So, right, right. Is it a four-round discount makes an easy call? I'm not sure I'm keeping Breggman in a round two. Oh, that's, there's that too. Not much of a discount.

But here's the thing, like, who's going to be available with that round two pick? Because if it's not somebody Bregman caliber, then you absolutely should keep Bregman. Right. Like, you could let Bregman go and pick him in this first round is, like, the most likely kind of outcome. But, I mean, if Bregman is far in a way the best player who's not only two keepers per team, I guess there's a good chance there'll be some other studs there. Yeah. All right.

Oh, he also says Chiefs 31, 49ers, or 24. I think that's too many points. For the 49ers, yeah. Yeah, I like the Chiefs, but I still don't know who I like in that game. I'm really close. From Adam, keep her question. Just once for Chris.

Three years of eligibility for each in a head-to-head 14-te-team league. Fran Mill Reyes in the 13th round or Alex Kirilloff in the 20th? Alex Kerouff could be anything. He could even be Fran Mill Reyes. Oh, Reyes is not that good. I mean, he just hit 37 home runs. everybody hit 37 home runs

okay only like 48 people hit 37 home runs calm down no I think Franmo Reyes is very good I think there's reasons to believe that he was he could be even better than he was I'm a big Fran Mo Reyes fan he was my breakout pick for the outfield position where would Alex Curloff even play this year

like you might you can keep him for three years great but like there's no room for him in Minnesota right now. Okay. So what are you going to do? You're going to keep them for three years and not use him for at least one? Okay, Fram Bell, it is. From Sean, head-to-head categories league, average OBP, doubles, singles,

triples, homers, stolen bases, RBI's runs. Okay, counts that base, basically everything. Which player would you keep of these three? I have them for the next three seasons, but I'm more focused on winning this season. DJ LeMayhew, Jeff McNeil, or Matt Olson? I would, I mean, I think it's close. enough what you expect from them this season that I would go with Matt Olson

because he seems to have the safest long-term profile. Really? Interesting. Because Mahehu goes a lot earlier. Really? A lot earlier? What's the DAP difference there? Well, I'm kind of talking out of my butt. Yeah, like dude, it's four spots earlier. I didn't realize Olson was going,

well, let's see, then Jeff McNeely goes a lot earlier. But yeah, Olson, 70th, LeMayhew 66th. Although I would argue that this is kind of like a points league and maybe he's, you know, I think Lemayu's a lot better in a points league than a rotel league. Yeah, I think, I actually think Eileen McNeil in this just because

once you add in how many different categories there are and how, like, he, you know, I think he'll probably have more triples than any of the other guys. I think he'll probably have about as many doubles as LeMayhew. And I would imagine both of them will have more than Olson. Olson will have more homers for sure, but his average is going to be way lower. So when you're talking about this many, like if it was just slugging percentage or just total

basis, which is essentially you're just kind of triple weighting all these categories. If it was just slugging percentage or just total basis, I'd go with Olson. But the fact that there's so many different categories that aren't home runs, I think kind of lessens the impact of the home run hitter. McNeil has had a 380 OBP, two straight. Here's, let's see what the Mayhew was. He was this year. 375.

Yeah, all right. There's a case for everyone there, I guess. I get Chris's argument, but that would kind of make me lean more LaMayhew. I think I'd talk myself into LaMayhew, forget Olson, sorry. I just kind of buy McNeil, what McNeil did last year more than LaMayhew. From Sean. No, we just read that. From Mike in Chicago, dear Egon, Peter, Winston, and Ray.

I'll just ask you guys both, who's your favorite Ghostbuster? I mean, from the movies, it's definitely Peter. Yeah, Bill Murray. Yeah, I mean, I grew up on the cartoon as a kid, and I was drawn to Egon. I was drawn to Donatello, too. I don't know what that said. What, dork? Okay.

I have Acuna, DeGrom, and Alonzo as locks. I need two more from the following three. Blake Snell, Chris Bryan, and Stephen Strasbourg. Chris, you get this one. Blake Snell and Stephen Strasbourg. And Scott from Marty Drop one of these guys in a Keep Forever points league. Six-O Sanchez, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, and Kristen Pesche.

Does I say that right? No, keep three, drop one. Keep three, drop one. Okay, so I'm picking which one to drop. Keep Forever. Points League. I'm going to drop Madrigal. because I think there are the clearest limits to the upside.

And I tend to assess prospects in terms of how good could they be. And, you know, magical's safe, but he's not as upside as these others. Did I say Colin Pachet's, Christian Pash's, I didn't say his first name right here. Did I say his name right? Yeah. His last name? Well, the last name, yeah. Yeah.

Okay, good. It could be Pache. for all I know. That's it for today's show. Have a great weekend, everybody. Scott and Chris are probably going to have the next show as I'll be in Miami for the Super Bowl next week. But, hey, maybe I'll hop on. It'll be nice. I can hopefully be on the show next week.

If I thought I'll be on the week after that. You'll have Scott and Chris, though, to take you through the big news and talk about some outfield tiers, maybe some starting pitcher tiers. And position previews are about two, two and a half weeks away, everyone. So get ready for that.

Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com for your emails. For Scott, for Chris, I'm Adam. Have a great weekend, everybody.