Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/25 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Early Busts

Episode Date: January 25, 2018

Kicking off the show with two players that Scott and Heath share on their Busts lists - Marcell Ozuna and Ryan Braun (1:00). When is the right time to draft these guys? ... Debating Rafael Devers vs. Rhys Hoskins in a longterm keeper league (9:30), and will Aaron Judge be a bust this year (19:15)? We compare him to J.D. Martinez ... Cases for and against these potential 2018 busts: Xander Bogaerts (29:50), Eric Hosmer (34:54), Danny Duffy (38:40), Jake Lamb (44:15), Ryan Zimmerman (48:16), Alex Wood (49:26), Whit Merrifield (51:15) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All right, we're talking about busts on today's episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. And I swear it is just a coincidence that Chris Towers wasn't here for sleepers or breakouts, but he is here for Busts that is not a reflection of how we feel about Chris Towers. Welcome Chris Towers. You know, I've been trying to slim down, Adam, and I'm not a fan of you making this connection. Well, we welcome you back. We missed you earlier this week. This will be our final episode.

episode of the week, but we'll come back with three more next week, and we're going to do a pretty cool team preview episode on Fantasy Baseball today. Also, it has been brought to my attention that some people have been emailing Fantasy Baseball at CBSE.com. Again, our email address is Fantasy Baseball at CBSI, as an interactive, CBSI, the letter I.com. So please send your emails in there, and don't be afraid to put baseball podcast or something like that in there would be helpful. Heath and Scott, good morning to you. So yesterday you told us the breakouts that you had in common, guys like Alex Bregman. Give me a bust or two that you agree on, that you both think are busts this year.

I think there are only two. And they are Marcel Ozuna and Ryan Braun. Okay. That makes sense. Marcel Ozuna is coming off his career year. one of the three categories that I used for my best call on this year is don't chase career years and Marcelo Zuno was a Braves rival on the Marlins and so Scott was predisposed to dislike him and so we both have our reasons for dislike Marcella Zuna.

Ryan Braun is old injury prone his ceiling now is 140 games I feel in my opinion and the floor is career-ending injury. So for Ozuna, the reason I am skeptical, and he's one of those players who, you know, probably the word bust is too strong, just he's going to be overdrafted. The Babbat for him last year was 355. It was the highest of his career.

It was, in my mind, unsustainable. Although, you know, he's a guy who could do 320, 3.30. that's possible. But $355 isn't going to happen again. And also his home run to fly ball rate was the highest of his career by a considerable margin, 23.4. He's one of those guys who managed to hit a home run, a lot of home runs, despite not having a very high fly ball rate. So I don't think the bottom is going to fall out in either of those areas. He might hit $2.80 instead of 312.

He might hit 31 home runs instead of 37. but I think that player is going to be a disappointment for where you're going to have to draft him. And then Braun, the durability, the health at his age, the fact that even when he's healthy, he sits like one every five days, gives him, it creates, there's such a high threshold to meet offensively if you're sitting that often. And the way his fly ball rate has declined over the last five years,

like you can't count on him for a big home run total when he's playing either and we saw it last year you know all three of the fan graphs projections have ozuna hitting round 285 to 90 with 29 29 to 39 to 31 home runs so they're all thinking the same thing as well what i think might be um not being discussed is marcella zuna's going to be in a worse offense this year i expect his run production numbers to suffer well come on Yes, he is. Well, he's definitely not going to drive in 130 runs or whatever. 124 last year with 93 runs scored.

Yeah, I would expect. There's no John Carlos Stanton in the Cardinals lineup. There is no John Carlos Stanton in the Cardinals lineup, but didn't it? I'm not sure there's a Christian Yelich. Hey, hang on. I mean, no, the top of the Marlins lineup last season was very good. He won't have D. Gordon's lineup was good last year, too. But there were a lot of problems with the Marlins, but the Cardinals aren't going to have a top of the lineup that can compare to D.

D. Gordon, Christian Yelich, John, actually, D. D. Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yalich, Marcelo Zuna, Justin, Justin, Boy. So, last year, Miami was 11th and run scored, and St. Louis was 13th. I mean, I don't think, I think you're overstating the difference in the lineup. I think the Cardinals lineup was much deeper, but the areas where the Cardinals lineup was better than the Marlins does not affect Marcelo Zina. Yeah, the Marlins lineup was incredibly top-heavy. Well, if Tommy Fame is good, if Matt Carpenter bounces back, the Cardinals always have a solid offense. But, you know, 100, 100's not completely out of the question if he plays 155 games or so.

I think it's very unlikely. 95-95, is that? My expectation would be closer to 85-85, 85. Maybe 85-95. That's a pretty big drop. Yeah, I could see him driving in 100 runs. Okay. And then, so he was top five outfielder, Marcelo Zuna last year.

So we just, nobody's going to draft him as such. He went, let's see, he went 46th overall in the Roto 5th.5. outfielder draft that we just did? Too high. Too high? 46th overall? Too high. Yeah, it's too high.

The next outfielder... Not by much, but some. The next outfielder was Tommy Fam, and then Justin Upton. So, like, when you put it in those terms, it doesn't feel that high. Well, I'd like Pham more. Upton, I think... Upton's also on my bus list, so I don't know that he's a good one to compare Ozuna against. I like Upton and Van Mour.

Okay. And then let's see where Braun went. real quick. Bron went with the second to last pick of round 8 in a 12-team league. So that's what, 94th or something like that overall? It's about right. It's a little too high for my liking, but it's about right. Man, two picks after Miguel Sanoe. I want Miguel Sanoe so much more than I want Ryan Braun. I know they play different positions, but those were the two hit. So the three hitters taken at the end of round eight were Sineau, Braun, and Joey Gallo.

How would you rank them? Just forgetting about position. Sineau, Braun, Gallo. Sineau-Gallow. I'm actually looking at my rankings here. So I actually have Braun the highest of three. Wow. I actually do two.

I don't. I have Sano the highest of the three. But I have all three of them within 10 spots in my top 300. So that's like they should be going together. I just think there's probably people that should have gone in front of them. Interesting. So you're not that excited? Because I'm kind of excited about Sanoe.

You're not. I was going to say, no, I'm not. But I do have him 15 spots ahead of Ryan Pond. I have him 86. But you're decidedly unexcited about Ryan Braun. Yes. Yeah, you know, I have Braun on my bus list. I don't have Sanoe on my bus list.

I think I don't think I'm going to have many shares in Sanoe because I think there will be enough like you, Adam, who are genuinely excited about him. I think there are still a lot of question marks there, but he has that kind of exceptional bad at ball profile that can overcome a crazy high strikeout rate, sort of like Aaron Judge did last year. I'm not saying he could be Aaron Judge,

but he could alleviate my concerns the way Judge did. I would say I could see him being Aaron Judge this year. There's no way he could be Aaron Judge last year, but I could see him and Aaron Judge had been very similar. I didn't get what you meant by that at first. Like, Judge will steal a few more bases, but it's not like he's a huge difference maker there.

So the worst form of Judge that you're expecting this year is what you think Suno could be? I think realistically, Judge, I think, is a better player, but it's mostly just because he walks more. I think they're very similar, though. And Suno, if, like, if Suno was producing like Judge did last year,

there's a good chance he'd walk like that, too, because he's not a bad walker. at all. Yeah. And I also, I will say, I think there's a pretty good chance that Sino's worse than he was last year. Yes.

Okay. He's a high variance. Yeah, I think Sinoe is in that group of hitters that could hit 50 home months this year. Absolutely. And so I'm not going to say that he couldn't have an Aaron Judge career in his year. He will have,

he'll have a worst batting average, but we knew Judge's batting average wasn't real last year anyway. Yeah. So, I don't know. I'm probably too low on him. I think I'm going to put him on the list and move Miguel Sano up. All right.

Hey, good stuff. So out of talking about busts, we've talked about Miguel Sanoe, who we don't think will be a bust. But we'll obviously more on him a little bit later. What we really need when we do our bus list, not later today, later in the off season. What we really need when we do a bus list is ADP, okay? Because, look, if Ryan Braun is going 100th overall or around there, then maybe he's He's not necessarily a bust. If you're still drafting him in, like, the sixth round, because you think he's going to be great, then he's probably a bus.

So we'll see where these guys end up going, and we will adjust sleepers breakouts and busts accordingly. Before we get into more of them and the Hall of Fame news, let's read a few quick emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI, as an I love you, everybody. Dot com. Dear Non Zero Chance, this is from Dan in Toronto, Non Zero Chance is our band name if we had a band. I've been loving the keeper content you've been adding to the site. Scott's keeper rankings are especially useful, and I hope, you know, because you do the dynasty stuff, and I hope we get to hear a mock keeper draft during the preseason. Anyway, last year I managed to get Hoskins.

I've been thinking about offering Hoskins for Devers. Who do you think is the better long-term keeper? Reese Hoskins or Raphael Devers? Devers. Devers. And you know I love Reese Hoskins. And actually, Heath does too. He actually ranks Hoskins higher than I do.

but Devers has that combination of skill, youth, and upside that could make them a top five player in fantasy someday. And while I think Reese Hoskin's ceiling is more kind of like, you know, Edwin and Carnacion. Aaron Judge. No, not Aaron Judge. So, you know, it's the difference between, I think one has first round upside. I think one has second round upside. and Devers being the one with the better pedigree, I think makes him a better probability. Yeah, and he's like three years younger, too.

It's an interesting one for me because I think Reese Hoskins is likely to be better. This year. For, I would say the near future. I don't know if it's just this year, the next two or three years. We've seen it can take a little while. Like, Rafael Devers has, like, the possibility of being Bryce Harper. But Bryce Harper took four years to be Bryce Harper. Like, there's a chance that Rafael Devers is just pretty good for a few years.

All right. There's a chance. Well, Chris, what do you say? I mean, they just give me a one-word answer. Devers or who would you rather have in a long-term keeper league? Devers or Hoskins. All right, all right. Future's uncertain.

Two Devers, one Hoskins. This is Pat from somewhere in Maryland. says, Dear Wade, Bruce, Tony, and Clark. Oh, no. Those are superheroes. Are they? Wait. Who the hell is Wade?

Is that the green lantern? Yes. Oh, okay. I love emails where people don't know that Heath's name begins with an H. I have heard... It's not the Green Lantern. I have heard Keith talk a lot about Cesar Hernandez, but what about the prospects for Scott Kingery for this season?

So that is the question. with Deadpool. Deadpool. There are... Wade Wilson. He was the Cowboys quarterback. Wade Phillips. Well, no.

Wade Wilson, the quarterback. Quarterback. Not coach. Yeah. Anyway, go ahead. The Phillies actually have... We expect J.P. Crawford to start the season in the majors, right? Yeah.

They have a number of guys who are knocking on the door that could really change the way their team looks. It's going to be really interesting, but I can't imagine, and this is a hot topic in the office, the Cesar Hernandez thing. I can't imagine Cesar Hernandez just isn't going to play somewhere. What a lame office we have. My goodness. Well, yeah. Cesar Hernandez is a very controversial player.

Watercour. No, I agree. Like, I'm not high on Cesar Hernandez for fantasy purposes, but I agree. he you know he's been a 370 on base guy the last couple years he he is a reg he he needs to be a regular for someone even if it's not the Phillies i do think kingery has more upside he was a 2020 guy in the minors last year uh unexpected power breakthrough um but it's i you know it's kind of like what we're dealing with with reese hoskins versus Tommy um Tommy joseph last year where except says or hand is better than Tommy joseph well we

didn't know that at the time. More established. It's certainly proven to be true as last year played out. But Reese Hoskins, we assumed, wasn't going to be able to play anywhere else. But first base, he didn't in the minors. I think he came to the majors, and that's when he started playing outfield. So he was blocked for much longer than he should have been. I think the same thing's going to be true of Kingery.

And I'm not super excited about him for single season league. Okay, here's an email from, oh, what's your stupid name? Wow. I don't have it. No name, no city. I'll try to look it up. It's going to take a little while. Actually, we'll try to do this quickly.

So, first of all, he says, dear Will, Evan, David, and Ben. The names in the list at the beginning are all pertaining to the only MLB team location name that is not named after a city or state. Huh. What? Oh, Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay. Myers.

Tampa is a city. No, Tampa is a city. Tampa Bay is the body of water. David Price. I don't like that. Ben Zobrist. I got it. Longoria.

Okay, I finished it out. I finished it. You guys were talking. I already solved the mystery. All right. So they call it Tampa Bay, so St. Petersburg feels included. Everybody's obviously, it's kind of like the New England Patriots.

They play in St. Petersburg. Okay. Okay. Mystery solved. So anyway, he says, I want to play a game with Officer McLean. So do I. We always discuss. breakouts and sleepers. My question is, which already relevant players have the greatest potential

to become top three at their respective position? I went to the Fantasy Pro's rankings and sorted out each position by 80P so far. I've compiled players 6 through 10 on each list for each position. Of these five players from each position, which one has the greatest potential to be top three by the end of 2018? So I'm just going to ask you guys to give names and not spend much time debating or because this could be an entire show. So here we go. Of these five, who has the best chance of being top three? This one's easy.

Gaddis, Zanino, Castillo, Ramos, Molina. I have Gaddis rinked top three, so I'll take him. Gaddis. He's not in my top three, but I'll take him too. All right, Gadis is the answer. First base. Abraeu, and this is, remember, this is Fantasy Pro's ADP, 6 through 10 at the position.

Abraeu, Encarnacion, Will Myers, Hoskins, Miguel Cabrero. This one's much harder I'm going to go with Reese Lightning I'm going to go with Incarnation although I wanted to go with Miguel Cabrera Yeah those were the three I was debating I'm going to lean Hoskins too

Okay Second base Daniel Murphy Canoe scope Seguera Merrifield Merrifield Is it Pointer-Roto Oh sorry Murphy Yeah I was like what Maryfield

Yeah I'll say Murphy But Maryfield could too So could describe Seguera and Roto Canoe did it just two years ago. Canoe two years ago. Scope last year, I think, right? Cano longer. Cano longer.

All right, shortstop. Bogarts, Andrews, Story, Dedey, Addison Russell. Andrews. Bogart's on Scott's Bus List. We'll talk about that. I mean, Andrews was the number one shortstop last year, right? He was. He has been several times.

And Bogartz was two years ago? Three years ago, I think he was number one, two years ago, I think he was number two. So, okay, so that is among players who are currently shortstop eligible. And when Bogarts was the number one shortstop two years ago, like it was a much, much worse position. Or three years ago, whatever that was. I will double check that, Scott. You sound dubious. You're right.

I believe you. You're right. I'm right. Yeah, 2015, he was the number one short. So here's something about short stops. He scored 6.5 more fantasy points in 2015, then he scored in 2017, Zander Bogart's. And he was number one in 2015, number six in 2017.

So it's just a much, much better position than it was, as probably most positions are. Well, it was a better position last year than it will be this year. Because Manage M Machado is not shortstop anymore. But he's not counted in this, actually, because I only counted players who are currently shortstop eligible. You should have left Cigura out at second base then because he's only shortstop eligible. Well, no, no, no, he's only...

Okay, what I mean by this, when I say that Zander Bogarts was the number one shortstop in fantasy three years ago and the number two shortstop in fantasy two years ago... Among eligible, currently eligible shortstop players. Exactly. It is among the current field of short... And that is... I do that because that's what the CBSSports.com leagues do. So, you know, when you look in your league on the stats page, that's how it sorts it.

I hope that's clear. All right, anyway, third base. Best chance to finish top three. Rendon, Bregman, Turner, Seeger, Shaw. You guys are going to say Bregman. The answer is Rendon. The answer is Rendon. The answer is Travis Shaw.

Is it really? The answer is Travis Shaw. He had a fantastic year last year, and he wasn't even good at Miller Park. Okay. like Shaw more than Rendon. You have Shaw ranked ahead of Rendon? No. Okay. I've got them back to back. Okay. The answer to Outfield is what? Aaron, Judge, Martinez,

J.D. Martinez, Springer, Marte. Marte. Marte is ninth in ADP? Wow. And Upton. Judge Martinez, Springer, Marte, Upton. J.D. Martinez. That is the correct answer. Yeah. What's more like... I'm going to say Aaron, Judge. J.D. Martinez was better than Aaron Judge last year on a

per game basis. So what's more likely? Judge has another season like that or Martinez stays healthy. I think Martinez is staying healthy as more. He's got to find a team first. Well, neither of them are going to have as good of a season as they had last year. That's also true. JD Martinez's season was less of an outlier for his career than Aaron Judge's was.

Aaron Judge is a two-year career. He had a better season last year than he ever had in the minors. That usually doesn't happen. He was also a lot better than Jamie Martinez. That often happens, especially in today's offensive environment. Minor league numbers are not under play players' power quite frequently. Yeah, I mean, there's... To an extent, but the extent to which he outperformed his minor league numbers is pretty

ridiculous. I do think there are clear warning signs for Judge than Martinez. Yeah, since we're on the topic of bus, like, is anybody putting Judge on their bus list? Sounds like Chris is. I mean, if either... these guys had any courage or conviction I'm not putting together a bus list

so I can just take shots at other people. But yeah, I think he's a very good bust candidate. He's going to be someone who is going to be drafted in the second round pretty much across the board and could be a first rounder in some leagues if people get excited. I think him in the first round. There's a ton of risk in

Aaron Judge's profile. There's a ton of risk in J.D. Martinez's profile. He's played more than 130 games once in his career. Sure. and last year he like broke his foot in spring training maybe that happens again but i think it's a lot more likely that he just doesn't suffer a random injury than like like john carlo stanton last year he just didn't suffer it's not like janey martinez has a bunch of has one injury that just keeps holding him out it tends to be different things every year he just doesn't get hurt and you're talking about a first rounder erin judge needs to do stuff that like has been done once

or twice in Major League history by him. Yes, one time. Okay, but like, so the thing about Judge, the only reason why it was like a huge outlier was batting average. Maybe he's not going to hit 52 home runs, is that what he hit? But he could easily, he's got the most power in baseball other than Stanton, right? So, yeah, probably. So Judge is going to be among the home run leaders.

But I really fear that he could hit 240, 250. If he hits 260, we're in a lot of trouble with, with, I don't think if he gets $2.60 or in any trouble. I think we are because I show it. I went through the data. It is hard to be a top 15 hitter. It's impossible. He can't be a top five hitter.

I really don't think he can be a top five hitter. A top five outfielders. No, hitter, hitter if he hits 260. It's just go through the list every year. It just doesn't happen. I will try to double check that. But last year there were like two guys. I think it was Dozier and Mookie Betts,

who hit like around 260 and finished his top 15 hitters. Encarnazion was like right around there, I believe. It just doesn't happen. Batting average is really important. And Judge's batting average is way too high last year. And there's just as good a chance he hits 220 as he hits 260. 220. I don't agree with that.

I mean, the floor for Judge is probably Joey Gallo. But here's the thing about J.D. Martinez. Like he hit 45 home runs last year in 119 games. He slugs 690. So you said he's a first round pick, Chris, if he plays a full season. I don't know that he's ever been that. But that's only because he's never played 100. He played 158 games once in 2015.

He was probably pretty close. Yeah, I guess we should check that. So 2015, he batted 282 with 38 homers, 1002 RBIs. Let me look up where J.D. Martinez finished. Like, since his breakout, he's hitting 300 with a 940 OPS for his over the last four seasons. He's averaged 40 homers per 162 games, 110 RBI, 95 runs. Now it's going to depend a little bit on where he ends up. Yep.

But this is one of the five or six best hitters in baseball. Well, I'm going to tell you this. It's not going to make you happy. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight. He was the number nine outfielder in points leagues that year with a great year. I'll look up where he was in Roto. But, I mean, kind of getting back to your original point, Adam, Like, J.D. Martinez has been a high-end hitter for four years now.

But last year, it clearly was on a level he had never seen before. Six-90 slugging percentage. His previous high was $5.53. I'm definitely not expecting that. Right. Yeah. I think, like, if you wanted to take his four-year average for the last four years, I think that's like 936 OPS, that's a fine expectation.

So his best season, J.D. Martinez's best season, 282 batting average, 38 home runs, 102 RBI. His best full season. He played 158 games. Number 9 outfield room points, number 7 in Roto. Now, there's evidence to suggest that he's going to hit close to 300. He batted 282 that year.

But everything would have to come together. In a way, yeah, yeah. Everything would have to come together. If it was his worst rate stat season, it just was the one year he stayed health. And Judge, like, if Judge is going late in the second round, which is where he's gone in our mocks, because, you know, the industry people feel that way

about him, then I'm not going to sit here and say he's a bust, but I think people are going to take him in the first round. I did. The first draft we did with Heath, because, you know, he was neck deep in football when we did those November and December drafts. Yeah, he took Judge, what, 12th pick? 12th pick. So end of first round.

Judge and Scherzer. And I will also say that Judge will definitely be better in OBP leagues, so keep that in mind if you substitute OBP for batting average, right? We all agree there? Yeah. Oh, yeah, for sure. All right, news and notes, and we'll finish off with the busts. Chipper Jones, Jim Tomey, Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, all elected to the Hall of Fame.

Chipper Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. are the only number one overall draft picks to become Hall of Famers. That's kind of a shocking stat. But, yeah. Baseball draft historically hasn't been very good at sequencing talent, in part because the rules until recently didn't encourage it. And the draft relatively new, right? It's been around since the 60s. Yeah, so. We've got some more coming.

I hope so. Number one overall picks that are going to be... Well, yeah, Matt Bush, we'll get in. Was Bond's number one? No. I don't think so, was he? Actually, he probably was. I'm not sure.

Because he was drafted twice. I think he was like a first round pick two different times. Okay. Yeah, he went to college. I mean, Alex Rodriguez is a former number one overall. Who knows if he was. get in because of weird things. Barry Bonds was the sixth overall pick in

1985. Shame on those five teams who passed enough. It seems like we've gotten better at the number one overall thing in the last 10 years. Well, like I said, the rules didn't encourage you. Right. Like, there was financial

issues that made it so you didn't necessarily, like, strategically teams wouldn't want to take the best player. And some of that still goes on now, but not to near the extent it used to. Strategy. Okay.

Michael Fulmer and Victor Martinez are expected to be ready for the start of spring training. Fulmer recovering from elbow surgery. Victor Martinez recovering from surgery for an irregular heartbeat. 12-team league, just give me a round. Where do you want to draft Michael Fulmer? He was on my bust list. I will not be drafting it. 15?

Wait, Michael Fulmer among pitchers? No. What do you want to draft? Or round. What round? Round. Maybe like 13. Okay.

And no Victor Martinez? Nope. No. Okay. And someone drove their car onto the Field of Dreams in Iowa, vandalized it. Oh. And that just gives me an opportunity to say that one of the most disappointing movies I ever watched, Field of Dreams. Total card.

Man, we are, we are sympathetic with the movies here. I think Field of Dreams is fairly overrated. It's, yeah. I mean, it's not as overrated. as like something like Moneyball. Oh, I like Moneyball. It's not the worst. He's just saying that because he knows Moneyball is my favorite baseball movie.

You know, he's the troll. The natural is the most overrated baseball movie. I agree. The natural is better than Field of Dreams. Yeah. No. I agree. I think the natural is better than Field of Dreams, but I also think it is overrated.

But it's not as overrated as Field of Dreams. I enjoy Field of Dreams to some extent. I don't enjoy the natural. It's got good performances. The cast is great. likable. It's just not like... It's just like...

It's the movie that like men who are afraid of their feelings are like... Except for that one. That's the one that I'm allowed to cry in. Yeah. It's not even the best Kevin Costner or baseball movie. I mean, that's... There's a lot of competition there. The Postman.

Yes. Good one. All right. And time to tell you about some other podcasts. Hope you didn't listen to the Sportsline DFS podcast yesterday. It was a rare... Rare bad day, but I got to tell you, the advice that Heath and Mike McClure give, very, very good. And I've been using it on Fanduel and Draft Kings, and we win a lot. So we give lineups, and we go through the lineup construction process. So if you want to make your own lineup, you can just listen to the advice and, you know, pick and choose what you like to use.

Sportsline DFS podcasts, and all of our podcasts are listed on CBSports.com slash podcast with some subscribing options. You can also search Google Play for our podcasts. But iTunes Stitcher tune in right there on CBSports.com slash podcast. We've got the Pick 6 podcast, which is NFL. We've got a great college basketball podcast with Gary Parrish and Matt in Orlando. It's one of our most popular ones. Check it out, CBSports.com slash podcast. So don't have as much time today for the bus as we did for breakouts and sleepers.

We already talked about some bus and had some good debates today. But let's see if we can get to all eight guys that we were planning on getting to. and I guess we'll just go a little faster today, guys. So let's start with one bus for Scott White, and that is Xander Bogartz, who was 6th and points, 13th in Roto among shortstop eligible players last year. And again, that's players who are currently eligible at shortstop.

So 16th in Roto, why the difference? I'm speculating it was because a lot of the short stops got hurt last year. So he had the seventh most of the bats among shortstops. Bogarts did not get hurt. He played 148 games. That's why he was so much better in points than Roto. But Scott, you know, look, a lot of people, I think I took him in that Roto draft that we did on Tuesday. Bogarts, it went in the seventh round to me.

I still think there's upside there and potential that you, do you think otherwise? I don't want to put words in your mouth for Zander Bogart's. I mean, maybe, but he'll have to change his batted profile to make the most of that. I wouldn't have to call him a bust if people readjusted their expectations based on the way last year went. You may remember, last year I was calling Xander Bogart's a bust.

I feel like it was validated. It was. It was. He got hit in the hand with a pitch. And yet here he is getting his consensus ranking on fantasy pros is 55th overall. So people are still drafting him like he's a stud shortstop. Zander Bogartz has had two good years. you know, where he performed like a high-end shortstop.

You mentioned the 2015, 2016, right? One of them was driven by a 372 Babbup that was in 2015. The other was driven by a home run to fly ball. A completely out-of-character home-run to flyball, right? He had 20 home runs that year. If you look at the last four years, the BABEP in 2015 is an outlier. Home run to fly ball rate in 2016 is an outlier. He doesn't excel at either of those things.

He just happens to have, you know, there happened to be outlier seasons in those areas, those two particular years. And it was enough for him to stand out in a weak position. Devil's avocado, Scott. Devil's avocado? Where? Why was Dallas Keiko bad in 2016? Because he was hurt. why did he struggle in the second half last season?

Because he was hurt. Do you have Dallas Kikl on your bus list this year? I don't. The year he was really good, the year he won the Sai Young, unsustainable ERA that was inflated by a great defense behind him. And a 269 Babbitt. Last season, 256 Babbup, the year he was bad in 2016, he had a very normal 304 Babbup.

His career line is 291. So the years Dallas Kikil has been really good. has been fueled by unsustainable outlier skill sets. The years that we give him a pass for, it's because he was injured. Zander Bogart's, quote, we thought it was going to get better, his left thumb. He couldn't swing a bat for two months.

We thought it was going to get better, and it didn't, and then I played through the pain. I know I made a mistake. I probably shouldn't have played. Okay, here's the problem with that, because people fired back at me with Twitter. Oh, it's because he got hit on the wrist, in, you know, mid-season.

Well, he jammed his thumb in April and then got hit. He was hurt all year. Throw the hole. But no. Scott, I'm not necessarily disagree with you. Some people tried to tell me that, oh, he was doing great until he got hit by a pitch mid-season. He was. He had two home runs on June 17th.

He had a total of two home runs two and a half months into the season. Yeah, he was hitting 311, but it was with the 372 Babb. That same unsame sustainable number he had in 352. What happened to him in the second half was regression to the mean. He said he was hurt. He says he was hurt, but it was going to happen anyway. I think it's worth pointing out that we tend to be inconsistent. We tend to pick and choose when we give players credit for injuries impacting their performance.

And when we don't think that's true. If we're not going to give Sandra Bogart to that credit, we should probably not do the same for Dallas. Dallas Keikle has things. he's the best at in all the majors. Zander Bogartz doesn't stand out in anything. I'm not sure he's above average in anything. Well, he's an above average shortstop. He had a bad year last year, and he was the number six shortstop in points leagues.

I have him ranked as the number six shortstop in points leagues. That makes him for me a fifth or sixth round pick. Okay. Would you guys take Elvis Andrews or Zander Bogartz? Elvis Andrews. Zander Bogartz. Okay. Didiogorius or Zander Bogartz?

Xander Bogarts. I would take Zanderbogarts. I would take Bogarts, but, you know, by the time I think of it, he'll be long gone. Okay. So let's go to Heath Bus now. Eric Hosmer was the number six first baseman in points and Roto. In 2016, he was 13th in points, 11th in Roto. In 2015, he was seventh in points in Roto.

So he's been, you know, seventh, 12th, seventh, 12th, sixth, sixth at first base. among currently first base eligible players You should just keep going back because it goes every other year like that because Eric Cosmer is an every other year player. Sure is. His weighted runs created. He go 113, 80, 120, 98.

124, 102, 135. It's getting better, though. Oh, we got a 180 to 98, 108. It's going to be like 104 next year. I think we might get a 107, 108. I think he's an above average hitter. he still can't hit fly balls to right field, which would be nice because he does hit the ball very hard.

But he mostly hits the ball hard when he hits it the other way. The 22.5 home run to fly ball rate, not sustainable with a 29% hard contact rate. Eric Hosmer is, I feel the same way. Did I give you Jonathan's scope? Am I going to make the same argument for two guys? Because I think I might. You didn't give me him, but go ahead.

You can work at it. They both play a ton of games. they both just likely had their career year. They're both very good, and I'd be happy to have them as my, if I took them as the 10th first or second baseman or the 11th first or second baseman off the board, that would be great. I'm not going to have that opportunity. I wouldn't even take Hosmer as the 10th first baseman.

Like, even while admitting that I, like, just flat out missed on him and he was better than I got. You're going to last year. I just don't think there's the upside there at a position where up. upside is so important. 25 home runs, two straight years, and those are his career highs. For Eric Hosmer, you just don't know if you're going to get a great batting average season or not, because it's the batting average also that fluctuates every single year. 292-2-2-2-70, 297-266, 318 last year.

You just don't know. And it's looking more and more likely that he's going to be back on the Royals, which could be other than him one of the worst offenses in baseball. Yeah, I just think Like if you gave both Justin Bore and Eric Cosmer 155 games I think I'd rather have Justin Borg

But what I'm saying is that I might rather stream first base than invest what I need to to draft Eric Cosmer Hosmer went in round seven One pick before Zander Bogartes That's I mean middle of round seven

For Hosmer seems pretty early And then after that you had Travis Shaw's not first base eligible, is he? No. Who was the next first basement off the board? It's a long time before we get one, I think. Wow. It's like three rounds.

I don't know. Who is it? Olson? I might be missing someone. Yeah, it is Matt Olson. Round 12. Holy cow. Five rounds? He's the next natural first basement. There might be first base eligible players. I don't think I'd rather have Matt Olson.

I'd rather have Mac Carpenter. I'm not as down on Hosmer as these guys. I mean, I'm not really going to mount a passionate defense for him because I don't love him. But he was on my bus list last year for the same reasons they're citing, and I feel like he showed me. I would love to have Hosmer as my corner infielder in a Roto league after a lot. You better draft two first base from the first six rounds. You can't do it anymore. Can't do it.

That's a point. Yeah, like him in the 11th or 12th round. Okay, Danny Duffy, another royal. Danny Duffy is on Heath's bus list. He had a 381 ERA, 1.26 whip, and before that, you know, he's had great stretches in his career. But Danny Duffy for you is a bust, and I just want to tell you where he went. End of round 11 in the 12-team league that we just did. Danny Duffy is one of the players that before I really dug into anything,

I had just kind of plugged in as a top 30, 35 starting pitcher and just didn't really think much about it. And then when I got to actually looking at his career, my thought was why. What do you expect that Danny Duffy is going to do for you? And he's not an innings eater. He's never thrown more than 179 innings in his professional career. He's not a strikeout pitcher. He's only struck out more than eight matters per nine once in his entire career.

He is a fly ball pitcher that has, greatly benefited from having Lorenzo Kane, Alex Gordon, Gerard Dyson, one of the best defensive outfields in baseball over the last five years. Most of those guys are gone now. I don't know, and he's not going to get a bunch of wins

because he's going to be pitching on a last place team. So, I have a hard time seeing how Danny, and he's not a spectacular ERA guy. His best ERA is 351 as a starting pitcher. Can I tell you, can I tell you, what distinguishes him from other pitchers with those peripherals because you said he's not an innings either and in terms of total innings, that's true.

Right. You asked me a question recently what makes Danny Duffy different from Drew Pomerant's because just in terms of ERA with what they did last year, it looks similar. Well, the difference is the Red Sox treat Pomerant like a fifth starter in that I think he only went seven innings one time last year. The Royals treat Danny.

Duffy like an ace. He went seven innings one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, nine times, and less than a full season's work. So the reason he wasn't an innings eater wasn't because his team won't let him be an inning's eater. He just happened to miss time with an injury. And that's an important distinction, because obviously when a guy's on the deal with an injury, you're plugging a fill in. When he's healthy, he's more impactful than other pitchers with similar ERAs and whips because not many pitchers are allowed to pitch that deep into games anymore. Do you not think he's a bus, Scott, Danny Duffy? I don't think he's a bust.

I think he's a fine number three starter in fantasy. I guess the other thing is like he wasn't very good last year. But he was completely, he had a completely dominant stretch, Danny Duffy, in 2016. He looked like an emerging ace. He had a 16-star stretch with a 250 ERA. He went 11 and 1. He struck out just more than a. a batter per inning. And then he fizzled. Last seven starts of 2016, a 637 ERA, 12 homers in

innings. And maybe you thought, I don't know, did the workload get to him because he was a converted reliever? But last year it wasn't really that good. So what do you like about Danny Duffy as a number three guy? He wasn't that good, but not that many pitchers are good. You know, I think innings are the ultimate market efficiency in pitching right now because we've kind of, as the fantasy baseball world is woke to the idea that strikeout, get missing bats, avoiding walks, limiting home runs are what make for a great pitcher in fantasy. So it's hard to get any kind of advantage paying attention to those things. Everybody knows it.

But I don't think everybody's caught up to the idea that we're just not making aces anymore. You know, I know Louis Severino happened last year, but not nearly with the predictability of in the past. So you find a guy who pitches deep into games like Duffy does and he's decent. He's valuable. Was he decent? Is 380 with a 1.26 whip and eight strikeouts per nine decent? Yes. Well, and this is a, his swinging strike rate was very healthy.

11.4%. That's very good for a starting pitcher. that indicates that there could be strikeout regression coming, and I'll kind of make the same argument about Dallas Keikl. Or about Xander Bogart's. We give certain guys credit for pitching through injuries that we don't give other people. This is another quote. But this is another quote.

Like his best case is not as good as those guys. I don't agree that his best case is not as good as Dallas Keikles. I don't want to suggest it would be. quote, it feels really, really great. Honestly, I had forgotten what it felt like to throw without any pain or discomfort. Apparently, the Royals trainer had been telling him to get surgery on his elbow for a while, and he was trying to play through the pain. Now, look, I don't know if that means he's going to be good next year.

I'm just saying that we give certain players the benefit of the doubt on that, and we aren't doing that for Danny Duffy, and maybe we should. Okay, so maybe he will be 179 innings with a 3-5 ERA. and win half of his starts and will be worth his ADP. I don't think that's his ceiling. He threw 179 innings with a third of his appearances coming out of the bullpen. That's true. All right, let's move on to another bus.

Go to Scott's bus list. Jake Lamb, two straight years is a top 12 third baseman. Last year he was a top seven third baseman. and two straight years with pretty similar slash lines. 249 batting average, 248 batting average. The on-base percentage was different. He walked a lot more last year, but he slugged 509 in 2016, 487 in 2017.

He hit about 30 home runs each year. I guess Scott, what I would, and not that I'm saying I disagree, but let me just frame it like this. If Jake Lamb hits 250 with 30 home runs, which he's done two years in a row, right? Yeah, right around there. doesn't that mean he'll be a top 12 third basement?

Not necessarily, because I think there are legit playing time concerns now too. You know, the last couple years, Lamb has faked us out, thinking he was, you know, breaking out becoming a fantasy stud in the first half, only to completely disappear in the second half. And I don't necessarily make anything of the first half, second half split. But what I do make of that is that he was unable to sustain that level of production. over a full season. And it's not surprising because he is so bad against left-handed pitchers,

144 with a 557 OPS last year. And the previous year against left-hangers, 164 or 625 OPS, so bad against left-handers that he has to be an MVP-caliber player against righties. What he is, who be that high-end, well, not over a full season. No, in the first half he was, but it's just, you know, he can't sustain those Babbos, he can't sustain that power production. It was a mirage. And frankly, the Diamondbacks, the newly contending Diamondbacks, got sick of it last year.

Last two months of last season, Lamb hardly played against Left-Hander. So now you're talking about a platoon player, kind of a glorified Lonnie Chisunhall, and I don't think he deserves to be drafted on nearly the level he is. That's a good point. And maybe he's a guy that you start some weeks and sit other weeks, you know, depending on how many lefties are on the schedule. But let me just see where Jake Lamb went. He went, well, he took him with the first pick of the 16th round in a 12-team league.

How could he deliver value there? No, that's good. I'm fine with that. But he is being ranked, the consensus ranking on fantasy pros is much higher. That was, like you said at the top of the show, Adam, we don't have ADP data yet. So that was kind of what I was using instead. He is the number 13 third baseman on fantasy pros. right now.

I think what I have him at is 13th. Where is he going overall? It's 90th, but that is changed by the fact that fantasy pros rankings are considering one catcher, three outfielder leagues, I believe. That doesn't make sense. No, outfielers and catchers, there are a lot of outfielers and catchers that should be drafted ahead of him, that we will draft ahead of him that are not ranked ahead of them.

It's for three outfielder leagues. I know it's for one catcher. I believe it is also for three outfielder leagues. He plays in a three outfielder rhodo league. A lot of people on Yahoo playing three outfielders. I believe ESPN is also, right? Well, it's head-to-head categories, you know. Well, you know, even like...

Well, let me give you some names. I think there's a good chance Eugenio Suarez is better. Like, I know I probably have Lamb ranked about 13th amongst third baseman as well, because I'm factoring in the upside. You do not. You have like 17th. Oh, okay. Well, good. I don't have to have to have that awkward defense.

Let me give you some names real quick. Would you rather have Kyle Seeger or Jake Lamb? Lamb. Seeger. Would you rather have Lamb or Beltray? Beltray. Lamb. Chris said Beltray.

I hear that, yeah. Quietly. All right. I'll give you guys one minute each for one more bust. Scott, you can choose John Lester or Ryan Zimmerman. Heath, you can choose Marcel. Oh, no, we already talked to Zunas. So you'll do Alex Wood.

Scott, Lester or Zimmerman, one minute. Okay, let's go with Zimmerman. and I feel like it might be obvious, but relative to like the Justin Smokes of the world, it seems like he's being favored among the industry types. So here's the deal with Zimmerman. Yes, he was healthy last year, but no, it shouldn't have led to the Miguel Cabrera and his prime type numbers we saw the first two years, and ultimately it didn't. The second half he had 269 with 17 home runs, which is still valuable in fantasy,

but it's not a standout at first base. And then there's, oh, yeah, a likelihood. He gets hurt again, misses two-thirds of the season. No thanks. Yeah, I'll further that. First 30 games, he had a 1382 OPS. Last 114 games for Ryan Zimmerman. He had a respectable 813 OPS.

I don't know that that's going to get it done at first base. And he had within those 20 weeks, 20 fantasy weeks, not including the All-Star Game Week, only five good weeks. Only five weeks was more than 20 fantasy points. only three weeks with more than 22 fantasy points. He was mostly useless during the last 20 weeks of this season. Heath, Alex Wood. Yeah, Alex Wood, in that situation on the Dodgers

where you have to expect at least two fraudulent 10-day DL sense to save his arm. So you're looking at probably 170-inning guy that strikes out about a better per inning. He outperformed his FIP by just over a half a run last year, and a lot of his value came from the fact that he went 16 and 3.3. which you should not expect him to repeat. Alex Wood went with the last pick of round 10. Chris, would you rather have any of these pitchers that went after Alex Wood? Marcus Stroman, Danny Duffy, Jose Barrios.

Maybe Stroman. That's probably the only one. I would rather have Stroman and Barrios, but not Duffy. I think, true or false, guys. Well, it's true that I think it, but true or false, Marcus Stroman is the starting pitcher with perhaps the biggest difference in value points versus Roto. Yes, true. I was going to say Marcus Stroman is the pitcher with the smallest difference between his floor and his ceiling.

Maybe. I think both of those can be true. I also still think there's room for him to break out and have like a Dallas-Kichael season where he jumps up in. to the eight to eight and a half strikeouts per nine range and ends up being, you know, one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. He is one of the few starting pitchers who competes with Kikl in terms of ground ball rates. So when I refer to Kikl doing things better than any pitcher in baseball, that's what I was referring to. He could have a 260 bad bit here.

Okay. Yeah, but can I, better at innings, which is point one bust? Yeah, yeah. We're being too, uh, we're being too trusting. of Whitmerfield's one good season ever at any level. I don't think it was his one good season. Look at what he did in the minors in 2016. He had some AAA seasons, but like we're talking like his second, third time at AAA.

I tend to discount that when you're in the PCL. His very first time in AAA was his best season in AAA. You know, it's funny. Heath and I were talking about this yesterday because, you know, Heath is notorious for the out-of-nowhere performance. just completely disregarding it the next year. I am. And he's not with Mitt-Mitt-Maryfield. And I, you know, I want to doubt Whitmerryfield, too, because I was, I didn't think he was

halfway decent heading into last year, and he ends up being the stud second basement. But I'm failing to find anything in the numbers that would cause me to doubt him. I mean, the batting average basically carried over from his rookie season. You know what it feels like? You know what it feels like to me? Eladmus Dias. Eleadmas Dias. Yeah.

Like, that's exactly what we said. He's a 28-year-old. old, yes, you're right. The first time he was in AAA, he had an 847 OPS. His AAA career, and he was old when he did that, he was a 25 year old in the PCL who had an 847 OPS. His career AAA OPS is 757. And he was old the entire time. You're talking about 25 through 27 seasons. Here's the thing. He only had a 784 OPS last year. He didn't have that grade of an OPS. Sure, but you, but you wouldn't expect a guy who goes from 757 in the PCL to being 780. I think Major League Baseball is a better offensive environment than the PCL now.

I don't agree. And he only had a 308 bad bit pleasure. There's no reason to doubt his batting average. The bad bit, the strikeout rate, what he did as a rookie when we didn't think he was very good, it was basically identical. There's no reason to doubt the Steele's potential. It's just the power. How many homers did he hit? 19.

19. But his last stint at AAA, he showed similar power. and he saw a huge jump in fly ball rate from his rookie season to his sophomore season that led to the 19 home runs. I think it was there. He just wasn't interested in doing it. Like he only had a 9% home run to fly ball rate. Yeah, it's hard to say. No, I get that.

We made all of these arguments for Ledmus Diaz, who was an absolute nobody had no pedigree, but had very... Just because we were wrong once doesn't mean like... That's not the only time we were wrong. I think the mistake we can make... Steve Pierce. When looking at those batted ball data, we get really granular, and we tend to think that because these make up a player's performance, we tend to think that they reflect skill. They reflect skill better than just batting average and home runs and RBI.I. But those skill fluctuates, performance fluctuates.

We saw it last year with guys like Justin Smoke and Logan Morrison, guys who we looked at the bat at ball data, and we were like, wow, this looks real. Yonder Alonzo. The second half, they all regret. between Maryfield and Elebis Diaz. And another mistake we can make. Wait, why? Eladmus Diaz had a home run to fly ball rate that was 13% with the same hard contact rate basically as Whitmeryfield.

So if Eleadmiz Diaz's home run to fly ball rate had dropped to 9%, he would have still been pretty good. He was 7.7. That's what you're talking two more home runs? I'm not sure what the exact number is. It wouldn't be that big of a difference. The other thing is, like, this is an anecdotal thing that you're doing that look at this guy that had a similar thing.

No, that's just the one example. That's the high profile example I can say. It's anecdotal. But it's based, we're buying in based on a limited track record. Agreed. And we're, although it's 30% more plate appearances than DS. Yes.

So it's a bigger sample size. Aledmus Diaz is not the only example of this. There are other players that we have bought into. I'm saying that the underlying quote unquote, skill-based stats, we tend to assume that they represent skill. They represent performance, which is different than skill. Scale and performance are related. Here's what we'll do.

They come closer to representing skill than anything else we have to go on. And so, yes, Flusuate. Eleasmus Diaz probably isn't the only example. It probably won't be the last example, but there are plenty of examples where assessing this data has paid off. I just want to put my flag down and say that Whitmanerfield's going to be a bust. Fine, good.

Now, here's what we'll do. I think two shows next week, one of them. them, maybe both. Maybe we can do both in one show. One of them is going to have to talk about the sophomore slump. We've got to investigate that, see what happens. See if we can predict anything. The other one's got to investigate these one-year wonder things, these one-hit wonders, whatever, and how many of them were good the next year and how many weren't.

So we got to come up with some names, and we got to do some digging, some research, and see what we can find. And we've got to get out of here because the Pixixix podcast needs the studio. So for Heath, for Scott, for Chris, I am Adam. Have a great weekend, everybody. We will talk to you most likely on Monday, if not Monday, then Tuesday. See you then.