Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/28: Outfield and Starting Pitcher Tiers! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 29, 2020

BIG episode! Scott White and Chris Towers give their initial thoughts on Outfield and Starting Pitcher as we close up our run through the tiers for each position and catch up on the latest news. Eugenio Suarez underwent shoulder surgery and the Reds signed Nick Castellanos, so we break down what it all means for the Reds (3:50) ... Then we break down the outfield tiers, beginning with the Big Five at the top of everybody's draft board (15:20) ... After that, we move on to the starting pitcher tiers, where Scott and Chris disagree on how many pitchers you need from the top of the list (43:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled, and Matt, Alvarez, and toward the point. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now, here's Adam, Scott Heath, and Chris. Hello and welcome to Fantasy Baseball today.

I'm Chris Towers, joined by Scott. That was weird intro. I sounded like I almost forgot my name. Scott White. How are you doing? I didn't notice anything. You made it weird just then. It was fine until then.

You made it weird. That would be the title of my life story. I think is you made it weird. You made it weird. And especially when it comes to an introduction for a widely listened to podcast, I always want to make sure that it's as weird as possible, just to make sure that people know what they're getting into.

Well, so how are you doing tonight, Scott? There's no mysteries here. It's all on the table. How are you doing tonight, Scott? It's late. I'm doing fine. 915. Sleepers Breakouts buss up on the site.

That's exciting. Always an exciting contribution to the preseason content. Yeah, we will talk about that a little later on this week. Go to CBS.Sports.com slash fantasy slash baseball and get Scott White's. sleepers, break out some busts. Let's do a quick preview, though. What is the spiciest name in the bust column? Ooh, the spiciest names in there.

Probably the guy going 19th overall on average. Fernando Tatis Jr. Wow. On my bust list. Now, you can see why it's, you know, it's, you know, don't go assuming things that I may not actually think. you have to actually read it to get the full context of what I'm trying to say.

It's, I know, kind of a foreign concept of people today reading, but, you know, it'll all be explained there. People don't like to find the context when you're doing those kind of things. You know, I did my position previews last week, or I guess they came out earlier this week on Monday. And Jose Obray was my pick for a first base bust. And part of it is just someone's got to be a bust, and there aren't a lot of good candidates at first base. You know, people aren't being really highly valued. And so I picked Jose Abraeu because when you look at the numbers, you know, I explained

it like he's coming off a career high in RBI. That really boosted his ranking last year. He finishes the number eight fantasy first baseman last year with 127 RBI or whatever it was. But he was actually like 13th through 15th in OPS among first baseman. And so if that robust RBI total isn't there, if he has 104 RBI next year, year, he's probably not going to be worth drafting as the number eight first baseman. And I just had a bunch of people like, how could you say Jose Abrae who's a bus? And it's like, well, read it. It's right there. There's about 150 words. This is how I can say. I actually took time to wrote it,

right? To write it and probably a lot more time than we'll spend on this Twitter exchange. Exactly. Although, why don't you go check that out? Oh, by the way, you say it's hard to find a bust at first base. Two of my 12 busts are first basemen. Oh, actually three of my 12 buses are first basement. So that's a little tease for you right there. All right. We will not be talking much first based on today's podcast though because we will be talking about outfield and starting pitcher tiers. That's right. We're going to try to get through both of the most robust positions in fantasy in one episode. Before we do that though, we do actually have quite a bit of news to talk about. Before we get to that, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com is the email address. If you want us to

read your emails on the show. Don't think we're going to have any time for that today because of the aforementioned outfield and starting pitcher tiers. But tomorrow's podcast, Friday's podcast, tons of opportunities for emails, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. And now the injuries, news and notes to Cincinnati Reds notes to start off with. They signed Nicholas Castellanos, which initially created a lot of consternation. in the fantasy community about who would play where and how much playing time would be available for whom.

And then we found out today that A. Johanio Suarez had shoulder surgery. He was rough housing in the pool, I guess, and had to have some cartilage removed from his shoulder. He will be limited to start spring training. The hope is that he will be ready. I believe the quote was near the start of the regular season, which does not engender a ton of confidence that he will be ready for. the start of the regular season. So I think you have to assume that A.

I think it was a hedge on the part of the Reds PR department there. I don't think this really relieves any of the consternation because Nick Kroll, the Reds GM, was asked about, okay, will this make Nick Senzel a possibility at third base to begin the year? And he basically said no. Yeah. So. And there's a lot that goes into that.

Obviously they're trying to establish Senzel as an outfielder and moving them back and forth isn't going to help with that. Senzel himself is coming off a shoulder surgery, a more significant one. Suarez is removing some loose cartilage. Senzel was repairing a torn labrum.

So I think it's possibly even more likely Senzo won't be ready for the start of the season than Suarez won't be ready for the start of the season. And that's maybe one. why there's a number of theories as to why the Reds went out and added two outfielders to what already seemed like a full deck this offseason, both Nick Castellanos, and he's back to being Nick now, by the way, not Nicholas. And the other one being Shogogoyakiyama, I think, going off memory. Yeah. Yeah, Shoguakiyama.

And one of them is that Is Senzel even going to be ready for the start of the season So Yeah I mean Suarez if we want to talk about that more I think it makes sense to downgrade him a little Just because it's an excuse to downgrade a third baseman Because wherever you rank anybody It feels too low at that position

But I think ultimately he'll be fine I think it's not a structural issue right right so you know I said we weren't going to have any emails jack did email us after the castiana signing what are we make what are we to make of nick senzell after this castiana signing will he get any playing time would you keep aristetus akino over nick senzell in a head-to-head categories league and you know I think that's a somewhat interesting question I also don't think either is necessarily a must-draft player certainly in a head-to-head head points lead with only three outfield spots. Yeah, although this is a keeper scenario, which maybe changes the math a little, I think the big

loser in the Nick Castiano signing is Aquino. Yeah. He seems like he would be the lowest priority to fit into that outfield. Obviously, Castianos is top priority. He's going to play every day, no doubt. I think once Senzel establishes that he's healthy, though, he's probably second in the pecking order just because of his pedigree and the upside being. And the ability to play center field.

Yeah, and he can play center field, sure. The upside presumed to be so high. I actually, back when I thought the playing time was going to be similar, I actually ranked Aquino ahead of Senzel because I think, particularly for this format, five by five, I think Aquino stands a better chance of making an impact and home run. and maybe even a bigger impact and stolen bases than Senzel. But, you know,

I'm going to put, in addition to those two, Castell ahead of him in the packing order, I would also put Akiyama ahead of him, I would put Jesse Winker ahead of him, Aquino still has minor league options, and he's already, he's about to be 26, so I don't really know what the future holds for Aquino.

I think from a keeper's perspective, he's a very risky option, even though he had a pretty good showing in his first taste of the majors last year. Although it was one really great month and then one sort of disastrous month. Yeah, it wasn't as extreme as like Austin Riley. Yeah. But there was a little bit of that there, yes. All right, some of the other news, Diamondbacks traded for Starling Marte.

Arrow pointing up for Starling Marte? Sure. I mean, if nothing else is the supporting cast, I think Arizona plays pretty fair. now since the introduction of the humidor but Pittsburgh Pittsburgh is really bad for one-handed misof-hitter do you remember which it is

righties or lefties I think it's lefties but it could be righties there's roughly a 50-50 chance I don't know the stock the same as far as as Marte goes if anything like from a deeper league perspective I'm disappointed because this really

limits the the chances of Josh Rojas having a significant role and Kevin Crone having a significant role. Looks like he might be in the mix at third base. Now, Cotel Marte moves to second. Edward Escobar takes over at third. Those seem pretty locked in there with Marte in center.

Starling Marte in center. Oh man, we got two Marte. Both the Marte is on the same team now. That's fun. And then also, like, Jake Lamb, I know he was terrible statistically coming back from the injury, but that guy, his exit velocities were crazy. He hit the ball so hard. I had some hope for him, too, in a deeper league setting, and it just seems like he's going to get buried now.

All right. John Heyman reports that a mooky bets trade seems more likely and could happen soon, and honestly, I hope we just rip the bandage off. You know, you've got to really, when you've got a team as bad as the Red Sox are, You know, there's no point wasting a talent like Mookie Betts. And I'm obviously being sarcastic because I think the last time I was on this podcast, I said that I think they could win 95 games, and it wouldn't really surprise me. And so, you know, you've got to tear down a loser like that. Yeah, I think there might be some gamesmanship going on here through John Heyman. He's just a puppet in their game.

Because based on some of what we're hearing, the Padres are offering up for mooky bets. I don't think it's going to get it done. Buster Olney was saying they're dangling Manuel Margot out there. Like that's some great prize now. Yeah, I think especially since it's not like the Red Sox don't have anything to play for. I don't know. Look, I'm not a baseball insider, but I don't know that it's that close based on some of the names we're hearing floated out there.

But, you know, obviously these things can change quite suddenly. seems unlikely that anything will happen on the Nolan Aeronado front. Nolan Aeronado kind of walked back his comments that he was a little annoyed about being included in trade conversations. It sounds like the two sides are willing to work together. So it doesn't seem like he's going to be on the move. You can move him back up your draft board. And, you know, frankly, we talked about this a couple weeks ago when the news first broke. It doesn't see.

I didn't think, you know, there. was too much to move him down for, as of yet anyway. So, you know, I think if you can get him in the second round, you're thrilled with that outcome, right? Yeah, sure. I mean, I still have him as my number one third baseman in Roto, so I would be open to taking him late first there. By the way, we probably should mention that another theory

for why the Reds signed Nick Kaston. Deanos is dangling Nick Senzel as trade bait And he would be more attractive trade bait Than somebody like Manuel Margo The Reds have been rumored to be in pursuit Of both of the big short stops on the market This offseason Francisco Lindor

And Corey Seeger and it seems like Senzel would be a reasonable centerpiece For such a deal But that's the only scenario By which I see them trading Senzel I think we would hear more rumblings before that came to pass too. All right.

Some other notes to go through. We'll go through them quick. Luis Arias injured his wrist in Winterball in Mexico. He returned to the state's four valuation. We haven't seen anything on that. But something to keep an eye on because he was a, you know, someone that I definitely liked as a sleeper coming into the season. He hasn't really done much at the major league level,

but still has put together very, very good numbers in AAA. Dusty Baker, will probably be the Astros manager. There were some conflicting reports, but it sounds like they are working towards a deal. I think that's a great signing. And, you know, maybe it makes the Astros run a little more. You know, he's still a bit of an old school guy.

He doesn't, you know, quite deserve the reputation as an old fuddy-duddy that he has. But, you know, he definitely does, you know, he likes to play a little more small ball. So we could see, you know, some more stolen bases scattered. throughout the Astros lineup. The Cubs signed Stephen Sousa.

Not sure there's anything there left. One million dollar deal. Red Sox re-signed Mitch Morland for you AL-only types. Nationals re-signed Ryan Zimmerman for you 40 team types. And Christian Yellich is fully healthy. He said at the, I don't know what they call it, Milwaukee Brewer's fan fest of some sort. And that's a great sign because he is coming back from that,

I believe was a fractured knee. And there's a little bit of concern. I know you've expressed some of that in the offseason about, you know, whether he'll run as much. He was leading the National League on Stolen bases, I believe, at the time of his injury. You know, whether he'll continue to run at a 30 or 40 steel club, which was the pace he was on last year. Yeah, though I expressed concern for everybody when it comes to are they going to run as much. You're a very empathetic person. Did a guy run last year?

Well, maybe he won't as much this year. Okay, yeah. You're very concerned, Scott. I'm very concerned about everybody's stolen base potential, yes. All right, let's move on to the outfield tiers, and there are a ton of players in the outfield, because you've got to start at least three in nearly all leagues, and in a bunch of those leagues, I know you guys are starting five. So there's going to be a ton of outfielders to go through

and let's start off with the super elite tier, and this is not just the super elite tier for the outfield position. This is the super elite tier for the fantasy world, right, Scott? Yeah, these five are the most likely five to go one through five. Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Ronald Ocuna, Cody Ballinger, and Mookie Betts. And, you know, you and I are both on the Mike Trout for number one bandwagon. Acuna seems to be the consensus for a roto league. Acuna seems to be the consensus.

To a certain extent, I think you could throw a five-sided coin and whichever side of that impossible coin. It comes up on, I think you'd be pretty happy with the outcome. This is any of these five, Mike Trout, Christianiel, Rono O'Cunia, Cody Bellinger and Mookiee, they're going to go top five in your league unless Garrett Cole sneaks in there, and any of them could finish number one overall. Let's move on to the next tier.

Let me just say that, Garrett Cole probably should sneak in there in a points league. Sure. In fact, Ronald Acuna, the consensus number one in Roto, was the sixth guy off the board in the head-to-head points draft we just did earlier tonight because Cole snuck in there ahead of them. And obviously, the thing that sets Acuna apart, the fact that he nearly had 40 steals last year,

he seems like the safest bet for steals among these five outfielders, although they're all pretty good bets for steals. That obviously doesn't mean. matter as much in a points league. So Ocunia slips for the other areas where he falls short. All right. Moving into the elite tier, why don't you tell me who's your favorite player to draft out of this bunch? Juan Soto, J.D. Martinez, Charlie Blackman, Ketel Marte, Aaron Judge, George Springer, and Starling Marte. Starling Marte gets a little asterisk. He's only there in a roto. You move him down a tier in a points league. Who's your

favorite among that group? Well, my favorite is Juan Soto. I mean, they are. listed in the order that I rank them. But you know what I'm asking, Scott? Who are you most likely to draft among this group? I didn't know what you were asking. I suspect I will have the most shares in Charlie Blackman because I don't know what it is that's causing him to fall and go in the fourth round on average when he's coming off.

The same kind of season, Charlie Blackman always has. Great source of batting average, ton of runs. The power's good. It doesn't run as much as he did in his prime. but that's, you know, that wasn't causing us to downgrade him before. He's just spent so consistently a first, second round type over the years. I don't understand why perception has changed so much regarding him. He's getting a little older, sure, but the production hasn't fallen.

So Charlie Blackmun will turn 34 on July 1st. So that's part of it. Part of it is also, like you said, he doesn't run as much. He stole two bases last year. It was the first time ever, basically, since he's been a regular. He hasn't stolen at least 12. So that is a concern. You know, the batting average, everything did kind of bounce back from, you know,

a down 2018, but a down 2018 for Charlie Blackman. He still calls course field home. So I'm right there with you. If he's just a four category stud, that's still pretty good. I'm not sure there's that big of a difference. in the production that you would expect between him and Juan Soto. Maybe a few more home runs, maybe more RBI,

but I think the overall package is going to be very similar for those guys. According to the traditional five-by-five categories, it seems like one Soto... Well, I kind of... No, that's... Never mind. I was going to say it seems like

one Soto might actually have to improve a little to live up to the typical Charlie Blackman season. But I do think Soto has a little bit of an edge power-wise. I don't know. I don't know. It's close. It's close, like you say. And the fact that Soto sometimes goes late in the first round,

while Blackman's still there in round four, is a head scratcher because of that. And I'll throw in that I'm happy to take J.D. Martinez at his ADP 22nd overall in that elite tier. you know, I think there's some concern that he is, you know, he's getting up there in age, just like Charlie Blackman is. The power numbers weren't what you expect last year, but that was actually mostly just a slow start. And, you know, I think in the second half he had 18 home runs in 60-something games. So, you know, that's more like what we're expecting. Now I know full season statistics are more predictive than half-season statistics or partial season statistics.

But in JD-Martinez's case, the track record is so strong that the fact that he's bounced back to where we expect him to be. Makes me fully on board for him. And yeah, I like that you, I like when you have to defend yourself from yourself, like you just did. All right, let's move on to the near elite tier where we've got Whitmerfield, Chris Bryant, Bryce Harper, Joey Gallo, Austin Meadows, Jorge Salare, Michael Brantley, and Jeff McNeon.

I believe Michael Brantley moves down a tier in Roto. Is that correct? That's how I have it here. Yes. That's how I have it here. I'm a big Jorge Soler fan. You are. Obviously, to tear him with these players.

I'm not there. That's fine. I get why you are. It's definitely one of those cases of kind of a mid-career breakout, and by and large, the fantasy analysis community is hesitant to buy into it. But it's really backed up by the production, and specifically, I like what he did in the second half, cutting way down on the strikeout rate.

the line drive rate went way up. He gave himself so much more batting average potential with the way he improved there that I kind of see him as a better version of John Carlos Stanton at this point. Like similar in terms of how hard he impacts the ball, but with more hope that he's not just going to get eaten alive by strikeouts, that's that's kind of where I am with Soler. So a couple of questions.

Okay. One. What is the difference in terms of skill set, if not outcome last year, between Fran Mill Reyes and Horace Saler? Well, Framil Reyes. Framiel Reyes doesn't strike out more, right? Does he? They were both in like the 25 to 27% range, I believe. Both had elite batted ball metrics.

both playing not great parks and not great lineups, but Fran Mill should be in a better lineup, in a better park. So Franbill-Raeus' strike out rate was 28.5 last year, which is very high. Yeah. Very high. So Lair for the season, it was only like 22 in the second half. That's one of the things that has me so encouraged.

For the season, it was 26.2, which itself is notably less. than 28.5. There are about 12 strikeouts over the course of 600 plate appearances. This is not nothing, but, you know, the difference in ADP is,

you know, maybe 100 spots. It's about 70. Let me see here. What else I could say about the difference? I did not come prepared to talk about that.

Frameo Reyes does hit the ball very hard. The launch angle looks pretty weak. XBA 264, X-Waba, 360 both of those are well I mean the ex woba is is solid there um not that far so there so 644 360 for framille versus 277 392 for solair so layer actually had a top 15 or top 20 ex woba it looks like okay so raya's wasn't as good

that's fine he wasn't as good I'll grant you that wouldn't you rather pay a 14th round price on Chris Davis with a K, who for four years was basically what we're hoping Jorge Saler can be. Wouldn't you rather just wait? I'm just saying my problem with taking Jorge Saler in the 70 range, my problem with ranking him and, you know, I have the luxury of not actually having to do ranks, so I can just pick apart everybody else's rankings.

But at 76th overall, and, you know, a little higher on fan tracks, looking at fantasy pros consensus ADP, I just feel like there are guys who can do what I think Jorge Soler will do, and maybe they'll do it 90% as well. Or in Chris Davis with a case, you know, he did it the year before exactly as well. Lower batting average than you're hoping for Horace Saler. Well, it depends on what you think Jorge Saler is. If you think Jorge Saler is just basically a slugger and doesn't bring much else to the table, I could understand that. But I don't, like, I'm tiering him with Chris Bryant and Bryce Harper

and, you know, like Austin Meadows, because I think he has, like, MVP caliber potential. I think he can be a solid source of batting average on top of just the power. So that's a big difference there, too. It's Chris Davis, even when we trusted him to hit a lot of homers, which we don't anymore. Maybe some of us do. I don't.

It was kind of a joke. He'd hit 243 or whatever it was every year, 247, something like that. 2.47, show some respect. 247 hitting God. It was clearly a limited skill set where he really just did that one thing very well. And I think Jorge Saler has offered us the first glimpses of having a much more. well-rounded skill set than that. And maybe that's an optimistic way of looking at what he did in the second half.

Like you like to say, full-season statistics, more predictive than partial season statistics. Well, yeah, he was kind of just a guy in the first half of the season. Like, he hit a ton of home runs. He had 23-humbers in the first 91 games. He had an 805 OPS and a 307 on a base percentage. He hit 240. So that's a lot of weight going on a second half, playing for a bad team in meaningless games. I don't know how much to put on that, but...

It's just that the changes in the batted ball profile were wholesale. It wasn't just one thing that maybe I could dismiss as a fluke. It was... And, you know, I make a similar argument for Marcus Simeon, why I'm so confident in him continuing to perform like a stud and not just writing the year off as a fluke. Yeah, I would just, I would caution that coming off John Carlos Stanton's breakout season, you compared Jorge Salarine, said you think he might be even a better version of John Carlos Stanton. You know, he struck out 163 times and 159 games,

took this big step forward as a contact hitter, and then the following year his average drops. Only 15 points, but he strikes out 50 more times, and the strikeout rate basically regressed to where it had been. So I'm just, this is a difference in philosophy. I'm more so even than I think the industry as a whole which, as you said, is less likely to buy into the breakouts, you know, the mid-career breakouts, I'm much more, I'm going to regress guys harder to where they've been.

And, you know, that means I could miss out on a big Jorge Soler breakout. But bringing this back to the tier concept, I mean, the idea is, and it comes down to your own level of comfort, I get that, but the idea is if you have these Jorge Saler's mixed in with these guys that you know are going to go much, sooner. It makes it obvious where you're going, like it makes it makes it obvious, it makes it obvious during the draft as it's playing out where the value is for you. Yeah, you're going to wait on. I'm not reaching for Jorge so later. All right. The next best things after the near elite tier are our buddy John Carlos Stanton, who's, uh, 80P has taken a significant hit this season, 61st overall so far. And then Tommy Pham, Max Kepler, Vickler,

Victor Robles only in an in a only league, and it is worth noting with... Only in a roto league, sorry. And in Victor Robles' case, it's worth noting that the Nationals have talked about batting Trey Turner third this season, which would presumably push Victor Robles into the lead-off spot and potentially create a lot of run opportunities and potentially opportunities for him to run more and get those stolen base numbers higher. Also in this tier, Eddie Rosario, Trey Mancini, Michael Conforto, Marcelo Zuna, Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Ramon Luriano, Andrew Benintendi, Nicholas Castell, and David Dahl.

Big tier, these outfield and starting pitcher tiers, they're going to wear me out. I'm going to be out of breath trying to go through them. And I'm not sure. Who stands out for you? Well, who stands out for you is what I really want to know, because for me, like, it gets tricky when you get this many names in a tier. and I don't want to like overture the position and make it so. Sure. So I'll point out I am philosophically, just like I said,

I'm more likely to regress the mid-career breakouts to their previous, you know, not all the way. I don't think Jorge Salare is going to be a guy who you can't play. But, you know, I'm more likely to try to buy a guy when they're on the down swing. And so that, to me, puts someone like Andrew Ben Intendi, who I really didn't have any interest in drafting last. year. You know, he's definitely on my radar. Someone like John Carlos Stanton for sure. And then I'll also throw out, you know, Max Kepler doesn't fit in the way with that group, but I really do buy

what Max Kepler did last season. I think the breakout was mostly legitimate, and the biggest reason for that is you look at 2018, he had a bad year. But if you actually looked at the splits and you looked under the hood, there were signs that he had figured out how to hit lefties. And the actual problem with him in 2018 was, if I'm remembering correctly, he couldn't hit righties in 2018, which is strange for a guy who hits lefty, and then he comes back in 2008, 2019, and all of a sudden he can hit both of them and he's really good. And so that's, that's what I really like about Max Kepler, is there were signs of the breakout before the breakout actually happened. Yeah, I'm, I feel pretty good about Kepler. I feel like I'm higher on him than the

industry as a whole. I'm not totally understanding why he gets kind of disregarded. Why there's so much distance between him and Eddie Rosario. Yeah, his ADP is 136th overall. Right. And he obviously performed much better than that last year. He's not much help in batting

average. He's mostly just power, which is surprising because he doesn't strike out much. But it does fit because he's such an extreme flight ball hitter. So it's he's he's decide like he's not going to surprise i think with like mvp caliber production when really any of the players in the first three tiers uh i think could or they help so much in steals that you just had to tear them that high uh so this tier you know if you compare the next best things which is what i call this tier to what it to to what it means for other

other positions. It's like Yohan Molkata and Matt Chapman at third base. It's like Mike Bustakis and Eduardo Escobar at second base, Paul Goldschmidt and Reese Hoskins at first base. Like it's still, it's still quality players, but there's usually a flaw of some kind that knocks them back a tier. For somebody like Kepler, it's the obvious limits on the batting average potential for guys like Stanton and Ben Intendi.

Obviously, there's some risk there based on the seasons they just had, Marcelo Zuna, I guess, kind of the same thing. And then Aloi Jimenez, Luis Robert, they're just, we're kind of assuming that they're going to take the steps they need to to join this group. And potentially they could surpass this group. But since, you know, obviously they're not as proven, it would be unfair to tear them higher than this. So that's kind of how I break this one down. I'm not really with you on Ben Intendi, especially. Actually, Stanton, Ben Intendi, and Tommy Fam,

though for different reasons, are all on my bust list. Not to give it all away. You've given most of it away now, Scott. Yeah. Like, Ben Intent... There's nothing in his batte ball profile from a year ago. that gives me optimism. Totally agree with you.

It's just totally, okay, this guy was a top pedigree, or high pedigree, top prospect, who looked pretty good when he first started his career. So surely he'll bounce back, right? I don't really see the need to take that leap when there's this caliber of hitters still available in the draft. Like there are so many hitters that you can, count on to be a positive to be positive contributors to you and i'm just not sure the upside even in a

best case scenario where he gets it all back is enough to to justify the investment in ben tenty here i i just look at it this way he was someone who last year was being drafted in the top 40 and i can probably get him a hundredth overall maybe a little bit later i'm not going to reach for him i'm not going to look at him at 80th overall and say now that's a guy i have to get but the further he starts to fall the fall the more likely i am to take that plunge because there is the potential here you know we saw it in 2018 he was a let's call him a four and a half category guy you know 16 home runs nothing to write home about but two 90 average 103 runs 87 rbi it's it's a sum of it's a the the whole is you know maybe the the individual pieces don't look all that great but when you

add it all up like that's a really but it was mostly first half too that's that's that's that That's another thing. 2018 second half for Benintendi. He had two homers. He had four steals. So combined last year with the second half, it's like something like 750 at bats where he's like a 1515 guy. He looks like Nick Marquakis.

I was the anti-Bententee guy last year, if you'll recall. I know. So, you know. Part of it is like it's easy to just kind of pull, oh, he's going outside the top 100, Andrew Benintendi is. So, you know, I'm not reaching for them. Let's just shoot for the upside there. But it's like there are so many hitters who you actually know are good going that late.

It's just, it's just there's so many hoops you have to jump through, like so many mental hurdles. Sounds like you should drop an Android and Tending low. Or so many mental hurdles adapting to this new world where like there are just quality hitters as far as the eye can see. And sort of the. the methods you leaned on in the past don't really apply anymore. I'm having trouble with it too. I just, we just did that head-to-head points mock earlier today

where five of my first seven picks were pitchers. And it was the most, like, I did that because I was so disappointed in the way the previous draft worked out where I think two of my first three picks were pitchers, and it's still like, oh, look at all these hitters spots. I already have filled, and it's the middle of the draft, and there's still great hitters left, and there's no pitchers. Like crap, but I feel like that's where we are now.

Where once you get past like the first two or three rounds of hitters, it's like 16 rounds of hitters that are basically all the same in terms of what they could deliver. It's just degrees of confidence at that point. No, that's fair. That's fair. For me, it's just a value thing. It's just an opportunity to take someone who's on the down swing

and see if they'll bounce back, Because, you know, yes, there are guys who can hit 33 home runs in that range. But there aren't that many guys who can realistically go 2020. And Bandintendi hasn't been that guy in a year and a half, like you said. That's totally correct. But, you know, a lot of the guys that you're drafting in that range who could give you great overall production or good overall production, they're not going to steal bases. They're probably not going to hit for average.

And the guys that do hit for average aren't going to do the other things. And so, you know, it's an opportunity for me to take someone who can be a five-category contributor at that spot. And, you know, looking at the fallback options and beyond that in your tiers, you know, it starts to get dicey with playing time. It starts to get dicey with skill sets. So, you know, let's look at that tier. But it does sound like to me, you should probably move Andrew Ben and Tendi down a tier into the fallback options, which is Kyle Tucker, Aristides, Aquino, Yassiel Pueg, Danny Santana, Kyle Schwar. Robert, Willie Calhoun, Garrett Hamson, and Mark Kana, and I know who your favorite in this tier is, and it's Mark Kana. Love Mark Kana, yes. I think people who, you know, the majority of the fantasy baseball playing world pays attention like April through June, right?

Really about the time we get to the All-Star break, people start to tune out, whether because they're preparing for their fantasy football draft or their just not in contention, or they just get bored, whatever. And they can miss out on things like Mark Kahnah. They can miss out on things like Mark Kana, who, although he has this reputation as being a platoon guy, he became an everyday player for the last three and a half months or so and was better than he's ever been before. Actually, despite his reputation as the platoon guy,

had better numbers against right-handed pitchers than lefties last year. And when I say better numbers, I'm talking about OPS over 900, reach base at nearly a 40% clip. Like a profile that looks an awful lot like Michael Conforto, even if we're regressing the numbers a little bit. So I am perfectly happy even in a three outfielder league with Kana as my starting outfielder. And he's a guy who often falls,

like I think his ADP is just barely inside. the top 300. So three outfields he might go untrafted, which is crazy to me, but also a testament to where we are with the hitter pool right now. Like you said, this is a really murky group. Yassil Puik doesn't have a job yet.

R. St. Dez Aquino, I'm going to drop him out of this tier because he might begin the year in the minors. Garrett Hampson barely hit last year right up until the last month of the season, basically. Yeah, he blew up. at the ends with a mechanical adjustment. Kyle Schwerber was amazing in the second half of the season,

but we've been bit by Kyle Schwerber many, many times. Danny Santana, stat cast all-star, even before last season, actually, if you look at his stack-cast numbers, he's a guy who profiled to someone who really should have been much better than he was. And so, you know, you have to kind of ask whether he'll revert to being that guy. And, you know, I'll throw out Kyle Tucker. I'm really happy to draft Kyle Tucker this year.

You know, I think there's some prospect fatigue. And, you know, like, you know, he doesn't have an everyday job right now confirmed. But I'm willing to bet with the price cheap enough that he'll get there. And this is a guy who's gone, you know, I think he went 30-30 last year in a quote-unquote down year in the minors. It's, I think he is the player most affected by the regime change for the Astros because they just, seemed to be playing it so cautiously with him, the old one, and the plan last we heard was that he was going to work out at first base, where he's seemingly more blocked than in the outfield.

So obviously now, completely new management structure, who knows what's in store for him, but he's old enough and proven enough basically have been a stud the past two years of AAA. It was great last September when he got the call. He performed great in the majors. So I feel like now is his time. Josh Reddick, there's no reason for them to,

them to stick with him in the outfield. It remains to be seen, but there's definitely post-type sleeper appeal here for Kyle Tucker. All right, and let's move on to the last resorts. I'm not going to go through all the names because there's a bunch of them, but just give me, you know, Nick Senzel, we already talked about, Framil-Raeus. We know I like him. Who's a guy in this tier, in this last resort's tier, that you really like? And these are all on CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. If you actually look in the right rail in the covers,

you'll see the outfield tiers right there. You can go and, you know, maybe I should have said that at the beginning of the podcast, but you can follow along with us, and you can find all the other positions there. Who's the guy in this tier that you really like? J.D. Davis, in fact, I think he probably needs to move up to the next tier because it's just pretty obvious he's going to have a more consistent role

than he did last year. He played every day late in the year and did great. 300-ish batting average, 900-ish OPS as an everyday player. Lefty-right, he splits are great. The supporting stats, I mean, he actually underperformed his XBA and X-Woba. So I think on our last podcast, the last time the two of us podcasted together anyway, I said he was the most the breakout pick I was most confident in it

and if that's the case I do need these tears to better reflect that move them up come on don't worry about consensus move them up yeah I will all right we're going to move on to the starting pitcher tiers and spend the last probably 25 minutes of this episode going through that but like I said if you want to see the rest of Scott's

outfield tiers if you want to follow along with the starting pitcher tiers CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball, and you'll find them all right there. And the super elite tier at starting pitcher, you should be very familiar with. Because it's Garrett Cole, Justin Berlanner, Max Scher, and Jacob de Grom. You could see all four of those guys go in the first round in pretty much any league format. It's not a guarantee, but it's pretty likely. Is there a gap between them, or is this like the super elite tier at outfield? where they're all pretty bunched up.

They're all pretty bunched up. The fourth of them for me, Jacob de Grom, I've seen go first in a couple leagues. I know Heath has said he would rank him first. So it's bunchy there. I go with Cole because I feel like he kind of cleared the hurdle in terms of how deep he pitches into games in late last year so that Verlander and Scherzer don't really,

have that edge on him anymore. And he's obviously a lot younger than those too. So I don't know exactly how the change from going from Houston to the Yankees is going to impact him. Nobody does, obviously. But I do think they're going to stick, like they stuck for Charlie Morton. And it's really just a matter of adjusting to the whole New York scene

and the venue, which I think he'll handle fine. He's going to miss so many bats. I'm not really worried about it. So I have Cole first, but there are, there's some disagreement there within the fantasy community. You know, I agree, Scott. You know, James Paxton stuff is just so good that I really don't think Yankee Stadium's going to bother him. What? Sorry?

You cut out. Yeah. No, Cole's better than Paxton. Come on. Of course he's better. I'm just doing a bit, Scott. Let's move on to the elite tier. It came back to bite you.

And if the super elite tier is like a beautiful. Symphony, the elite tier is sort of like the cartoon where the music all just kind of comes crashing down and there's a cacophony because the super elite tier, these guys are so good. And then the elite tier, you started off with a guy who we couldn't even figure out if he was worth starting last year. And that's Chris Sale. Then you go, Mike Clevenger. I was never down on Chris Sale. Well, you should have been because he wasn't that good. Chris Sale, Mike Clevenger. Well, We'll talk about it. Mike Clevenger, Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty, Walker, Walker, Stephen Strasbourg, Patrick Corbyn, Lucas Gielito, and Luis Castillo. This is a fascinating tier,

and it is the tier I will probably draft the least of this season, because it's the guys that you kind of have to pay Ace Price for a lot of guys who I'm not convinced our aces, either yet. Well, that's why you need more of them, Chris. That's basically how I decided to handle this. I want this tier and the next tier, basically. I want to form the majority of my pitching staff. If I can get five of them total,

that would be ideal. And obviously that includes the Colverlander the Grom Scherzer Group, too. But you're less likely to get those because that kind of depends on draft order. But obviously, they would be fine too. it's really let's see how many pitchers is it total

it goes through you Darvish which I think is just above 20 it's like 22 pitchers I will just say and you can answer the same question but the player that I'm most likely

to draft from this tier and again Chris Sayle Mike Clevenger Shane Bieber Jack Flaherty Walker Bueller Stephen Strasbourg Patrick Corbyn Lucas Gilito and Luis Castillo I'm actually most likely to draft Chris Sale, the guy who I was Chicken Little about last year. Well, you'll have to use a late second, early third round pick to get up. It's 35th overall right now.

And at that price... So that would be a late third. I love it. In our in-house mock drafts, I haven't seen him go that late yet, but, you know, obviously ADP is ADP. Okay. That's fine. I mean, that early in the drafts.

It's taking on a lot of risk. Well, sure, but any high-end pitchers going to be taking on some risk. I'm confident in it because, like, in terms of X-FIP, in terms of swinging strike rate, Sale was as elite as he's ever been. He was up there with Cole and all the best in baseball. So there was some weird stuff going on with velocity. He was a one-pitch pitcher, last.

year was the thing. If you look into the results against his pitches on baseball savant, it was basically the slider was great and the sinker was okay and that was basically it. He was getting lit up and so like he just, Chris, you know, I know the swing and strike rate was elite and that was because he threw a slider just a ton. I know the exfip was good, was very good. He wasn't good last year. He needs to pitch better in 2020 than he did in 2019, and I think he can.

By all the ways we say a pitcher is good, he was beyond good. I have a hard time reconcile like that. And if you just break, if you just look at the game log, the number of, even though he missed like a third of the season at least, right, he missed a lot of the season. And yet I think

he had the second most double-digit strikeout efforts of any pitcher. Like he had some really a lot of really dominant starts. So I have decided, just today I decided this in real time, as we were drafting earlier, when I chose Shane Bieber over him, that I will move sail behind both Bieber and Clevenger just as a better safe than sorry measure. But I'm very confident in sale and his ability to bounce back.

What I really want to say about the starting pitcher's tier is not to abruptly change course here is it's they're kind of they're kind of symbolic of the way I feel about the whole tiers concept right now in that I feel like positional tears aren't as helpful as they used to be because the distribution of talent across positions has become so alike. We talk about it a lot in the infield especially. And I almost think tiering for skills makes more sense. But even that, it's like, I guess what I'm trying to say is really I think there are only two forms of currency in the fantasy baseball landscape right now. High-end starting pitchers and stolen bases.

And one of those only matters in categories. of course, the stolen bases. So I'm pretty much to a point after having just done a roto draft and just done a head-to-head points draft being very disappointed when I took a more traditional approach to my roto draft,

being thrilled with the less conventional approach to the points draft where I took five starting pitchers with my first seven picks. Where early rounds, you know, except for those few

exceptional hitters like Cody Ballinger. I had the sixth or fifth overall picket to Cody Ballinger with it. Couldn't pass him up there. But for the most part, I'm just going heavy on pitching or heavy on stolen bases there in Roto, heavy on stolen bases.

So pitching and stolen basis at the start of the draft and then just trusting that the caliber of hitters that are going to be available in the mid to late rounds are going to present the same sort of upside as the early round guys, just like I said earlier, at a lower level of confidence. Does that make sense? Yeah, yeah, yeah, I get it.

I don't necessarily agree, but that is in keeping with our, you know, the personalities that we've cultivated over the years, Scott. No, I'm more likely to pick from, you know, the nearly the next best thing group because, you know, there's a lot of guys in this elite tier. You know, I'm speaking specifically Mike Clevenger, speaking specifically Jack Flaherty, speaking specifically Steven Strasbourg, and Luis Castillo. And you could throw Lucas G-Lito in there. So most of the tier, where I'm not sure that they're as good as their price

indicates. I mostly believe in Chris Dale, Walker, Bueller, Patrick Corbyn, being worth, and Shane Bieber being worth what they're going to cost, although Shane Bieber was probably a little lucky last year too. And so once you start to introduce that type of uncertainty into these elite prices, well, I'm just going to sit back and wait for Charlie Morton, who's probably just as good as most of the guys in this tier. Now, that's kind of cheating. because Charlie Morton, I think, stands out in that regard where I just think he's being underrated. And he's in that near elite tier, and we can go through that. Clayton Kirshaw, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Zach Reinky, Charlie Morton, Noah Cindergarde, Luis Severino, Tyler Glasnow,

Chris Paddock and U. Darvish. You know, I look at Charlie Morton and what he has done over the last two years. Yes, he's 35. Yes, he's gotten injured a lot in the past. But he's made 28 starts in three straight seasons. So not really that big of an injury concern anymore. mostly the age, give me Charlie Morton over Shane Bieber. You know, I don't think there's that much of a difference between the two of them in terms of their skill set. I don't think there's that

much of a difference. No, there isn't. It's, it's all age. It's degrees of confidence, like I was saying. Yeah. And so I'm inherently less confident in starting pitchers than you are. And I think I'm inherently less confident in starting pitchers than the industry as a whole. And so I'll just embrace that uncertainty, take the lower price for the skill set. that I think is very similar. But I don't even know that it's necessarily it, that you're less confident in it than I am. It's partially understanding that there's risk to all of these guys.

You need more of them because the bigger risk is to wind up with none of them and to just have to manufacture a starting rotation off the waiver wire, in which case, if this year plays out anything like last year, you lose. So kind of an offshoot of what I was saying earlier, my rant about I'm not even sure the tiers matter anymore, is if we were tiering this in a way that I think is going to reflect when I'm slowly coming around to being my draft approach for 2020, it's that probably those top 22 pitchers I was talking about, which would include the Lucas Giolyto tier, it would include the Charlie Morton. tier. And maybe even beyond that, maybe the next best things, which would include like Trevor Bauer, Brandon Woodruff, Sunny Gray, Mike Soroka, long list of names ending with like Madison Baumgartner, Carlos Carrasco. That like tier all three of them, all four of those tiers for like a big group of like 40 pitchers. And this is something I've talked about a lot.

Basically, there are 40 starting pitchers who matter. And then the rest, apart for maybe a dozen that have real upside, don't. Yeah, I don't. Yeah. I don't. don't disagree. And I just want to take as many of those as I can. And if I'm not consistently doing that, then I'm not going to get as many as I want. And the only place you got, you and I disagree on that is you're more willing to pick from the first two tiers or really that second tier. And I'm more interested in the third and fourth tier. I think that's the only place that you and I disagree. Okay. I'm more like, it may also be more a matter of how many we want. I want a bunch of them. Because the thing is, if I just waited till those later tiers where you like to choose from, I'm not going to get enough

pitchers. Like the draft is going to play out as I'm choosing from that group in a way that there aren't any left when it gets back to me. Sure, that's fair. So like I want at least four of those 40, preferably five. And to do that, you have to start right away, I feel like. That's fair. Rarely breaking from the pitching heavy approach in the early rounds. Going back to that near elite tier. I also want to throw out. Noah Cindergarten Luis Severino, two guys, I love trying to catch on the bounceback. I will probably have zero shares of Tyler Glass now.

I don't know how you feel about him specifically besides the fact that you rank him in this tier. That's just, it's a hefty price to pay. 71st overall in ADP for, you know, a guy who really did it for a month and a week, basically. Like, he came back from the Anderina, was an elbow injury. It was a flexor strain, I believe, and the control issues were back. And the stuff is still amazing. I still believe in him, but paying a 71st overall price,

you know, a sixth rounder, you know, because he was really, really good for a month and a week, that's something I can't do. But I totally get why people do because when he was on last year, he looked like the single best pitcher in baseball. Yeah. And I probably will. I mean, if, he's your number two starter, you have a reason to be worried. If he's your number four starter, which is more what I want him to be, then, I mean, you could be in a position to win your league. Yeah. All right. And then the next best things, this is a tier that I love. Trevor Bauer, Brandon Woodruff, Sonny Gray, Mike Soroka, Jose Barrios, James Paxson and Corey Kluber will break it there and just give me the player you're most likely to draft from that group. I would say,

probably sunny gray I imagine both Brandon Woodruff and Sunny Gray I'm going to have a lot of shares in not because I'm especially high on them but just because I have lower levels of concerns about them than

probably the industry as a whole does see I think a lot of people are kind of all in on Brandon Woodruff and I'm not there he's a two pitch pitcher and neither one is a breaking ball or a change-up which is not a good cover I've seen a lot of people saying that.

Because it's true. What do you mean by he's a two-pitch pitcher in terms of what he throws? No, no. In terms of- I think he throws four pitches, right? Yes. Only one of them is great. But yeah, the fastballs are the only ones that are actually good pitches.

Right now. Right. You know, he could take a big step forward, but like the swinging strike rate on the slider and change up, it's okay. But for those pitches, it's both well below average and they both, you know, the, the slider doesn't get hit as hard, but the change-up. up gets hit pretty hard and I'm just, it's really hard to be as fastball dependent as he is. You know, 64% fastballs and not have a plus breaking pitch or a plus secondary. It's really

hard. Like, you know, he's going around 100. It's a fair price, but it's just not what I'm willing to pay for that skill set. Again, it's probably more of a situation where he's, going to be like my number four starter than my number two starter so you can you can accept the risk a little more just if you're going for high end pitching volume like that and and for a lot of these for all of these pitchers it really comes down to have they proven they can go deep into games which he's been he was very efficient last year even in the games where he didn't go deep it's just because he got removed early and that was mostly early in the season and once they took the the reins off he was he was pitching deep reliably woodruff was and can they miss bats which you know the strikeout rate was great it is mostly on the fastball like you said it's pretty clear woodruff has maybe the best fastball among all starting pitchers uh that's big remember that start he had in the playoffs last year i guess it was the wild guard game against the nationals where he just overpowered them for three innings and he was basically only throwing fastballs that was coming back from injury and he knew he was going to have

a short time on the mound so he could get away with doing that. But he dominated the ultimate World Series champion with just his fastball for three innings like that, which shows you how good it is. He's really impressive. It's just I need a better secondary. I don't know. I know what you say. Yeah.

Saying that's the risk with him. That's the risk with him is, is it diverse enough? If he loses a little something on that fastball, is it all going to fall apart? I've seen the skill set compared to Matt Harvey, and that's kind of what happened for Matt Harvey, right? Lost a little on the fastball, and it all fell apart. And so maybe Woodruff doesn't have a great deal of longevity going for him. He was actually fairly low in my dynasty rankings, or was it my keeper rankings,

one or the other, because I was kind of accounting for that, you know, that maybe he doesn't have a great window of high-end production. But I think he's in that window right now. I think it obviously just opened for him. And I'm hoping it'll last for at least a couple years. All right, let's talk about the rest of the next best thing. Shohei Otani coming back from Tommy John's surgery. Frankie Montas, Hyunjin Ryu, Lance Lynn,

Zach Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Carlos Carrasco, and Zach Gallen. I was absolutely heartbroken that I didn't draft Carlos Carrasco in the head-to-head points draft we did today because I think he can be a, a cheat code for head-to-head points league, specifically this year, because he is relief pitcher eligible. And, you know, we've talked about it a couple times already this offseason, but I think I'm willing to basically just give him a mulligan. You know, we saw something similar with Tyler Glassnow. When he was diagnosed with cancer midseason, it just derailed his season. And that makes sense. That is a really good.

excuse for not having a good season. And so for Carlos Grasco, you know, he's a little older than you think because he took a little while to establish himself. So he is already in his 30s. But he was so consistently good, you know, a top 15 starting pitcher for what three years. At least that's how we ranked him. I can get him outside of 100. That's an easy call. He's 118th right now in ADP. Give me all of the Carlos Carrasco except for. in the most recent draft that we did where I didn't draft him. I want to say a couple things. I'm not a cancer expert and so I don't want to speak out of turn here,

but I feel like leukemia, that's much more pervasive and affects all of your physical composition than testicular cancer would, right? Does that make sense? So I'm not, it's less, oh, I need an excuse, I need an explanation for why he performed poorly last year than it is. I'm not really sure how he's going to bounce back from this. Also, the fact he's much older than Tyone trying to bounce back from it. He's 33 Carasco is, I think. So he's not a young guy

by baseball, well, by sports standards. And the other thing is, if we're looking at this kind of like a tier of 40, which obviously I break it down is more than that, but I just laid out the case for why maybe it makes sense not to. Somebody has to go at the back of the of 40 and it becomes the guys with the biggest risk factors. And I think Carlos Carrasco coming back from leukemia and not really having a great concept or... Sure, we haven't seen them. Yeah, we haven't seen many players do that. Yeah. You know, so I just really don't know what to expect. No, I guess that. He's in the 40. Yeah. I'd be happy to get him if he lasts long enough. I'm just not going to be sticking my neck out for him. Sure.

Who is your favorite among this group? And once again, is Shohei Otani, Frankie. Monas, Junjun Riu, Lance Lin, Zach Wheeler, Madison, Bumgarner, Carlos Carrasco, and Zach Allen, and that's probably the last we're going to get to. But who is your favorite among this group? My favorite, this was beginning with who again? Otani. Shohei Otani. My favorite is Frankie Montas. Yes. I really don't have any doubts. And maybe I should have doubts. It wasn't a long stretch of the season in which we saw him breakout and yes he was busted for PEDs and missed

a lot of time and good I guess I guess we have to wonder what kind of effect that had on his performance though historically it doesn't seem like it changes that much for most players who get busted for that but it's just like the changes Frankie Montas made to have the breakthrough

the interrupted breakthrough that he was having are just so tangible adding the splitter to his arsenal that immediately became his best pitch and helped round out his arsenal in a way that it all became better and the ground ball rate went way up and the swinging strike rate went way up which are the main two things I look at for pitchers and he just he's just kind of the perfect storm of everything I like in a pitcher in this era and yeah this this seems like a good spot for him seems like a good value for him so 128th overall is his current ADP Frankie Montas in the 10th or 11th round.

Are you kidding me, Scott White? I love it. Love it too. We're on the same page there. All right, no disagreements on Frankie Montas. We can talk about the rest of the starting pitcher tiers. Later on in the week, Scott and I will be back with two more episodes this week. Scott, thanks so much for hopping on.

Of course. I'm always here for you, Chris. or anyone else who wants to take up the hosting mantle on a given day? That really, that makes me feel warm and fuzzy on a cold New York night. Thanks so much for listening. Fantasy Baseball today. I'm Chris Towers. That's Scott White. We'll see you in a couple days.