Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/29 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Brewers Moves; One-Hit Wonders

Episode Date: January 29, 2018

A busy show as we return from the weekend with our thoughts on Manny Machado's value with Shortstop eligibility (1:20) and Milwaukee's additions (7:00) of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain ... Scott and Heath have a rankings dispute over Trea Turner (17:44), Nolan Arenado (20:24), Luis Severino (23:20) and Corey Seager (24:35) ... Dedicating the second half of our show to the idea of "one-hit wonders," players who came out of nowhere to have big seasons. What can we expect from them in 2018? What lessons have we learned from good examples like J.D. Martinez and bad examples like Jonathan Villar? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Big show for you today as we are back from the weekend, and we've got trades to talk about. We've got a shortstop to talk about. Oh, it's big stuff. Plus, one-hit wonders, sophomore slums. This is the most important show we've ever done. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Four of us are here, Adam Azer, with Scott White. Hi, Scott White.

Hello, Adam. Chris Towers. Hey, Chris Towers. Hello. And always excited at Chris Towers. And Heath Cummings, bring the pain, Heath. Why don't you like the fantasy baseball audiences? as much as you like the fantasy football audience.

If this is a fantasy football podcast, you would have started off, well, it's a big show. And sung that song. And you didn't do it. What song was that? It's the big show from WWE's entrance music. Paul White? Yes. I don't know what the hell you're talking about.

Last night was the Royal Rumble. You could have tied it into that. We all watched the Royal Rumble, obviously. I'm with you, Adam. I have no idea. This is completely over my head. They're speaking of foreign language. So if you're not familiar with Team Scam and Team Kreeh, Scott and I are Team Scam.

I did not watch the Royal Rwomen. Don't lump me in with that. All right. I was watching the other choreographed show last night. The Grammys? Yes. Okay, I hope that was good. I was watching Shameless, which is better than both of them. So anyway, enough TV.

What's the big news for you guys? Is it the Brewers' signings and trainings? Or is it Mani Machado, who was going to play shortstop this year? And, you know, I kind of figured at some point he would become shortstop eligible. Just needs five appearances there. But I didn't think it would be week two. So that's huge news. What's the biggest fantasy news for you guys from over the weekend?

Well, I think you just dismissed the Manny Machado news appropriately. I didn't dismiss it. What do you mean? No, I just, it's not as big as the Brewers thing. It's not as big as the Brewers thing. It is like I'm going to move Manny Machado up a couple of spots. I had him as an end of the second round pick. That's about where we've seen him go.

I think he should probably go towards the beginning of the second round now. Here's the hard time I'm having with the Manning Machado news, because yes, it sounds like very early in the season you're going to be able to play him at shortstop. And yes, I do believe shortstop is still the weakest non-catcher position. Not anymore. I think it is. Definitely weaker than third base. I mean, for sure. All right, let me get to my point before you start interrupting with all yours.

I think he's better. I think he's better than Carlos Correa. I think Mani Machado, my expectation. are he's going to be better than Carlos Correa this year. I have more confidence in him. He's better than Carlos Correa. I have Carlos Correa going in the middle of the second round. If I feel like Mani Machado is going to get that shortstop eligibility Carlos Correa has by week two, I probably should move him into my first round, right? Yes. And yet I can't bring myself to do it. I can't bring myself to bump Kirshall or Bryant or any of those others out. So, like, I don't have a good reason for it other than I just don't want to. Maybe. Maybe. Maybe if it becomes apparent, that's the only way you can draft Machado, I will. But right now, I'm kind of fine leaving him in the middle of the second round. Well, he would have been the number three shortstop last year. Although, okay, so.

So down season. Yeah, right. It was a bad season for him, and he was the number three shortstop, because last year he did have shortstop eligibility. If you look at our stats page right now, he only has third base eligibility, so you won't see him show up there. But in terms of fantasy points and overall roto finish, Mani Machado was the number three shortstop behind Francisco Lindor and Elvis Andrews. Lindor doesn't get drafted, and Andrews obviously isn't going to get drafted in the first round, but Lindor also doesn't get drafted in the first round.

So I don't know. My initial reaction was, yeah, of course Mani Machado is a first round pick, but I guess even if it's early second, there's a group of guys there that probably some of them are going to go in the first round, some are going to go in the second round, but they're going to be the same group of guys in most drafts. So like if you take them at the end of the first to start of the second, it doesn't really matter. It really doesn't. It's your personal preference, but you could take Chris

Bryant over Manny Bichato. You could take Manny Bichato over Chris Brian. Is anybody going to argue one way or the other? It's like, clear choice? Yeah, Mavato is short-old. I would say Chris Brian is more valuable, and I think there's a clear difference. But wait, Heath, you just said Mandy Bichotto, yes. So then

how is he not a first round pick or very early in the second round? I said I think he's an early second round pick. Oh, okay, I thought you were more than me. Well, and then, you know, the thing about the turn there, the end of the first round, beginning of the second round turn. I personally don't have many of the big four starting pitchers, you know, just Kershaw or many of the big first baseman, you know, obviously Goldschmidt going in the first half,

but then there's these other three Rizzo, Freeman, and Votto. I don't have those three first basemen or, you know, Sail, Kluber, Schurzer, in my first round because, because, since, Since there's three of them, it just makes sense to wait until the second round to draft them if you're going to draft one of them. But that, you know, I'm assuming one of the first picks of the second round is going to be them because they do still seem like high priority picks, especially the pitchers. So how does Machado, how does he wedge into that group? Like, I don't know. I think I might rather have him than Votto in either format because of Votto's age.

I think I might rather have him more than Rizzo in a Roto league because Rizzo isn't as valuable in Roto leagues. But I don't know that I'm taking him ahead of any of those other, the big four of pitcher. Okay, Chris, you want to weigh in? Where would you put Machado now? He went, I took him in like the middle of the second round in the draft we did on Thursday. Anywhere in that range. I don't think I would take him in the first round. I don't give him that much of a bump for the position of eligibility, but

you know, being eligible at two positions has value. You can use him at either one depending on where you go. Otherwise, so, you know, I'm fine with him in the first half of the second round. Okay. And the other thing is it's not just that he became shortstop eligible, but he was, like, before last year's crazy, I would say unlucky year, but at least weird out-of-character year, he was a first rounder. Yeah, exactly. So it's possible that we're still not giving him enough credit for the bounceback that should be coming. Do you want him more than Correa to get back to my initial point?

Yes. What about Trey Turner? I mean, I feel like in Roto people are going to go Turner, but... Oh, I'm definitely going Turner. Turner's Keith's number one player in Roto, right? Number two. Number two. Okay, you put out, you have Altuve ahead?

Yes. He has Trout fourth in his Roto rankings. We got an email about that coming up. But let's go to the Brewers News. So they've got Lorenzo Kane, five years, $80 million. They got Christian Yelich. They gave up Lewis Brinson and Monta Harrison and an infielder Isan Diaz. Isan Diaz, I don't know.

And a pitcher Jordan Yamamoto. Ryan Braun apparently could play some second base. Domingo Santana is on the trading block now. Lorenzo Kane finishes the number 22 outfielder in points, number 23, and Rodo, he'll be 32 in April. Christian Yelich finished based on the current crop of outfielders, outfield eligible players. 10th in points, 16th in Roto. And in fact, he's been a top 10 outfielder in points leagues, two straight years and a top

16 outfielder, two straight years in Roto. That's Christian Yelich. It didn't really feel like a great year for him last year, but he still, you know, got you 100 runs. So he's just solid. I think that's mostly, he got off to a bad start, and I think that's still. six in our minds. He was really bad in the first half of the season, and he was really good in the second half. He also only hit 18 home runs with 16 steals, you know? I mean, he didn't

do anything great except the 100 runs. Yeah, and he's probably going to score a lot of runs in this lineup. That's kind of been the MO for Christian Yelich. Like, he's a very solid fantasy option, but he doesn't provide the power. Um, so he's easy to pass over in those early rounds where you need to take them. I think that's about to change. I think that's about to change. This is a guy who's really hit for a lot more power on the road. So how many home runs do you expect from Christian Yelich now as he becomes a Milwaukee

Brewer? I expect 20. I think there's 25 to 30 as an upside. He's someone who hits the ball on the ground too much to be a consistent 30 home run guy, but that started to change a little bit last season. He upped his fly ball rate. And he has, I think, better raw power than people think. Yeah, I mean, the quality of contact would suggest as much.

And I don't worry, yes, he's kind of like the same gripe we've had with Eric Cosmer that, okay, maybe he could hit for power, but he just doesn't elevate the ball enough to is true for Yelich. But Yelich has so consistently been so much better on the road. Like, he has been a power hitter on the road. Certainly the last two years, and even earlier in his career, the power was still much better on the road than at home. Like the consistency of those numbers, I feel good about him hitting 25 home runs his first year in Milwaukee, especially now that he's what, he's 20, he just turned 26 this off season. He's entering his prime here. I think the best is definitely yet to come.

So since he entered the season, there are 155 players who have at least 1,000 plate appearances. Christian Eilot ranks 86 out of 155 in Wobah at home and 18th on the road. That is, most players usually hit better at home, even guys who play in bad hitting parts. So that is a really good sign for him. I think that, you know, potentially he might alter his approach as well. Heath, should Christian Eiloch be a top 10 outfielder on draft day? You know, I think you could make a really good argument for it. I am not going to rank him as a top 10 outfielder, but he is in my top 15 and points and just outside of it in Roto.

There's just a lot of really good outfielder's. Okay. But he's right there in the discussion. I am a little bit less convinced that he's just automatically going to start hitting the ball in the air a lot more. But I do think he's probably a 20 homer guy. Yeah, I don't know that he's necessarily going to hit the ball in the air more. He may. Then you can't really feel comfortable with expecting 25.

It may have been partly intentional because he was playing in a park where he couldn't hit many home runs. The thing that I think may get overlooked with this move, both for Yelich and for Kane, the Miller Park thing is, we all got that. But Craig Counsel's teams have ranked first and second and stolen bases each of the last two years. Both of these guys are 80% or better success rate guys when it comes. to stealing. They let Jonathan VR run and run and run, and he's not very good at it. I mean, he's really fast, but he gets caught too often and picked off too often. So, Kane has stolen 26, 28 bases before.

I would not be surprised at all if this is his first 30 steal year. And we could see Yelich get up over 20 again for the first time since 2014. Christian Yelich really went for somebody that I don't really want to draft because I always thought he went a little too high, not great on the per game basis. He's not a standout to somebody. I'm really interested in because I also wanted to avoid all Marlins after they traded Stanton and O'Suna and D. Gordon. And this is obviously a team that's set up to have a really good offense.

I will say, you know, we were talking about this with Stanton and Ozuna last week. This is a better offense, obviously, for Christian Eilich than the one we thought he would be in in 2018. I don't think it's a better offense than the one he was in last year. I don't know. This could be a top. this could be a top five offense. I won't project it to me, but I think it could definitely... But the top of the lineup isn't going to be as heavy as the Marlins.

But he still scored 100 runs. So I feel good about him doing that again or close to it. And the RBI's hopefully he would go up. What did Yelich have last year? Yellowch had 81, I have. Okay. So I think... What you were saying is 98th the year before. About him going from being somebody who weren't excited to draft.

I'm in the same boat. I kind of regretted that of my sleepers breakouts at bus column's breakout was the one I sent out first because I feel like Yelich is going to be a breakout pick for me now. Obviously, there's going to be a 2.0 coming out later this draft prep season. But I am really excited about drafted Yelich, and it sounds like I should be pretty excited about drafting Kane, too. I mean, the stolen base point Heath brought up is a great one that I hadn't even considered. And then, of course, you know, he's going from a terrible park for hitters to a very good one now, too.

Last year, 12 of his 15 home runs came on the road. Now, go back for the previous two years, it wasn't that dramatic of a split. It wasn't as consistent as Yelich's. But still, I mean, we know one's a bad park. We know one's a good park. And we know he has some power. So that's exciting news for Kane, too. Okay.

We'll talk about the rest of this in a second. Let me just give some names real quick here. Would you rather have Christian Yelich or Andrew McCutcheon? Yelich. Yelich. Yelich. And that was always true, so. Okay.

Christian Yewitch or Tommy Fam? Yelich. Today I'm saying Yelich. Today I'm saying Yelich. Can't guarantee you tomorrow. You update your rankings then. Oh, I'm sorry. I meant to say today I'm saying FAMM.

Today I'm saying FAM. Sorry. Okay. And finally, let's go to Lorenzo Cain then. Lorenzo Cain or Marcel Ozuna? Ozuna. Cain. I am saying... Go ahead, Scott.

I got to think this through now, since I got it wrong last time. I'm saying Ozuna. Osuna. And Lorenzo, Cain, or Starlink Marte? I am going to go with Cain there. Cain points. Yeah, let's stick with Marte and Roto. Yeah, I'm going with Cain.

Okay, all right. Azer. Yes. There are two other Brewer's notes we need to talk about. Yes, okay, give it to... Well, also- Ryan's not actually going to play second base. Okay.

Adam McCauvey, the MLB.com Brewer's Beatwriter. Let's pump the brakes a bit on Ryan Braun to second base upon further review. Sounds like just something he offered in passing to make it clear he's open to anything that's not third base. Maybe they'll try it this spring, but Braun is highly unlikely to be Milwaukee's second baseman in 2018. I expect to be their first baseman. And Josh Hater is opening the season in the bullpen for the brewers. Okay. So what is this duty for, Domingo San Diego San Diego.

Santa. Yeah, that's the big question because, you know, even if they move Braun to first base, then what does it mean for Eric Thames? You know, there's a fantasy relevant hitter who's going to be getting less than every day of bats if this all stands. Now, there were reports even before they added two outfielders in one day that they were shopping Domingo Santana. I think they feel like they'd be selling high there based on the batted ball data.

I don't know if that's true. Domingo Santana is actually kind of a trendy pick in fantasy. So I don't think anyone in the industry wants him to see him without a job. And, you know, if I could jump in here, he is a trendy pick. And I know Heath really likes Domingo Santana. But his home run to fly ball ratio is out of control. And I know he doesn't like Marcelo Zuna. I'm guessing that's part of the reason why.

So why do you, why is Domingo Santana such a trendy pick when he's not really a flyball hitter and he had an astronomical home run to fly ball ratio last year. Domingo Santana hits the crap out of the ball, and he's really fast. And he walks. You do those three things, and I am going to like you. Santana's hard hit rate was basically the same as Azuna's last year, though. Yeah, I've got them ranked pretty similarly. Right now, I think Santana is in a better offense and a better park.

But if Santana got traded to the race for Archer or got traded to the Royals for Duffy, then he would fall well behind those enough. And with Santana, it's not just the hard hit rate, his line drive rate. He's one of the best line drive hitters in the league. It's why I don't really worry about his strikeouts because it's just such high quality contact, such high probability contact when he makes contact. And yeah, there's some stolen bases there for Domingo Santana too. It's not just the power.

Okay. All right, so we'll have to, can we, should we move on and just say, let's see how this plays out? There are still plenty of moving pieces here. Yeah, okay. Sounds good. So here's your email of the day. It is from Mike, who's currently living in a city in Cotter, which is currently... I think it's Cotter.

Cotter. Cutter? Yeah, I think it's Cudder. Currently under blockade in the Middle East. All right. How about that? All right, Mike. Here we go.

Oh, huh? Here's how we're going to do this. This is how we're going to do this. Quick on this. Scott and Heath debate their rankings. Chris, you can be the judge. judge. All right.

Ranking Disputes. I'm interested in some of the rankings discrepancies on the CBS page. Can you debate the following players going by Roto Rankings? Trey Turner. Scott has him 11th. Heath has him second. Go. Okay.

These are all Roto rankings, by the way. Yes, all Roto. Yes, these are all Roto rankings. I know Heath has a policy among big base dealers, and there are only a handful. He really puts a premium on those guys. and understandably because there's a chance you could get boxed out at stolen bases if you're not careful about it. But I think investing your first round pick just to fill that stolen base quota, knowing how much you have to keep up in the power categories since home runs are so prevalent.

And, you know, the first rounders are generally big-time standouts in that category and RBI. So, you know, Trey Turner's a first round pick, but I, you know, I can't give up Turner. I mean, Trout or Altovae or Goldschmidt for him. I do put a premium on stolen bases, but it's not just stolen bases with Trey Turner. You're not investing your first round pick just to make sure you get steals. Trey Turner does just about everything. And I think the idea of being able to get that huge edge at the most difficult stat to acquire, while also getting a good batting average, I would expect somewhere near 110 runs,

probably going to hit 15 to 20 home runs, so he's not necessarily going to kill you there at the shortstop position. He does it all and should lead baseball and steals this year. Chris, you decide. So he definitely has Trey Turner too high. Trey Turner over Mike Trout is crazy town. It's completely cuckoo bananas. Paul Goldschmidt over Mike Trout is also Crazy Town Banana. Even though he's been better than him two of the last three years.

Oh, God. Mike Trout was so much better than him last year. This player that has been better two of the last three years. It's crazy to put him ahead of him. He was so much better than Goldschmidt last year. He just got hurt. Here's the thing about Mike Trout. Since Mike Trout broke into the leg seven years ago, whatever it was, six, seven years ago, you know, there's an owner out there listening right now who has looked on to the Trout owner with envy saying someday, someday I will be in a position to drought Mike Trout and it will be beautiful.

And Heath is telling him this year, oh, you have the first round pick finally? Okay, don't invest in my truck. I just reject your argument completely based on the premise. No, but you're telling people to take Mike Trout four? Sounds like what you would do. Anyway, you can go back to judging. 2.11. I'm closer.

I agree with Heath's reasoning, even if the conclusions are crazy town bananas. All right. Next up. No one Aronado. Scott has him fourth. Heath has him eighth in Roto. Yep. Is this really a double?

It's a debate, yeah, I think so. Okay, I mean, the thing about the reason I rank Aeronado fourth, and there are basically four players who I feel are just a higher levels of security than everybody else. And the main thing I don't want to do with my first second round pick is wasted. So those four are Trout, Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Aeronado. I feel like if I don't know exactly what they're going to give me, I know it's going to be super studly and I don't have any reason to worry about. And Aronado, he's a pretty good idea exactly what he's going to give you. He's been so consistent. I don't think he did last year, but the previous two years let the NL on both home runs at RBI and wasn't far off last year.

Had a little better bad luck last year, so got that batting average up too. There's just nothing to be worried about with Nolan Aronado. He's safe. Was Charlie Blackman the number one player in Roto last year? Charlie Blackman, his teammate, is also an elite option. He's my number five player. I've got Bryce Harper at 6. Mookie Betts just had a down year, but look how good he was.

Mookie Bet's extremely safe. Trey Turner, I have ahead of Nolan Aronado. I think all those guys have in common, except for maybe Harper, is that they are going to steal more bases than Nolan Aronado this year. And they don't play third base, which is the easiest position to fill. Okay, Chris. I think Scott's argument that Nolan Aronado is safe and predictable is 100% true. the problem is the places that he helps you.

Oh, come on. He's so good at that, though. He's so good. Like, it's one thing to be safe. Right. You need so many home runs. You can't, you can't black off. There's not a lot of who can do what Aronado can do outside of the first round.

I know. I mean, it's one thing to be safe. I've got him in a lot of other. It's another thing to be safe and completely elite at the same time. He's not exactly replaceable. I mean, he was what the number, 12 player last year? No, was he?

I will try to look that up. I can't check because I think our leagues are down because we're launching the product soon. But according to baseball prospectus' player value system, he was like number 12. Does that really translate to fantasy points? Yeah, no, that's a fantasy value. Oh, okay. The proto five by five. I look, I have no problem with Aeronado.

He's just not someone I'd go out to get. I'd rather have black. All right. How about Freddie Freeman? Scott has him 13th and Heath has him 18th. I'm not a brazenomer. It's another minor disagreement. Yeah.

Like I was saying when we were talking about Machado. Let's skip this one, Scott. Let's skip it. I want to get to one-hit wonders and sophomore slumps. Luis Severino. Scott has him 35th overall. Heath has him 45th overall. Heath, you can have the first word on Severino.

Yeah, pitcher, I feel like moving Severino into the third round is treating him as if he's a little bit safer than he is. I do have more injury concerns with Luis Severino than I do with the average top 24 starting pitcher. Huge innings jump last year, throws really hard. I expect if he throws 190, 200 innings again, he's going to be a top 10 starting pitcher. I don't feel like he's quite as likely to do that as some of the guys I have right ahead of him. So Severino is my eighth starting pitcher in this format, and Severino is Heath's ninth starting pitcher in this format. I feel like it's more just a matter of Heath didn't prioritize the high end, doesn't prioritize the high in starting pitchers as much in Roto. So, and outside of the top four, which I think are in a different class in terms of how good they are and how safe they are, you know, it's kind of just, you're kind of just going with the flow of the draft anyway.

Okay, fair enough. And last one, this is an interesting one. Corey Seeger, Scott has him 27th overall. Heath has Corey Seeger. 51st overall. What? What, says Mike in Qatar? I really feel like you have to, especially with Manny Machado now shortstop eligible as well,

you really have to overvalue shortstop to put Corey Seeger that early, especially in Roto. He just, he's going to have a very good batting average, and maybe this is the year where he hits as many home runs as we think he's going to, and he drives in as many runs as we think he's going to. But if you just look at what he's been so far in the major leagues, he's a very good baseball player, very good hitter. I think he's probably at this point a better baseball player than fantasy asset, especially in Roto. So, sorry. I get to make an argument. I know he's good. I know Chris is going to be on team creth on this because it's team creth. But anyway, yeah, I think it all comes down to just how you how you rate the depth of shortstop.

and I think particularly in Roto where you've got to go even deeper into the middle infield spots because there's that extra lineup spot to fill. You have to consider how shallow the position is, or at least how shallow I perceive it to be when ranking this player. But, I mean, the other thing about Corey Seeger is he's 23, clearly haven't seen the full extent of his upside yet. Dodgers lineup was great last year. Seeger batted near the top of it.

Somehow only 77 RBI, somehow only 85 runs scored. Like, that just seems like such a fluke that I can't even take it seriously. And that, you know, if you get those numbers up where they belong, then he didn't achieve by as much as it appears at first glance. Chris? I think there is value in betting on elite talents, and I think that's what Corey Seeger is. on the other hand last season he had to pick one player at random who uh scott has ranked 90 spots lower he had three more runs than adam jones four fewer home runs four more rbii and two more

stolen bases he had 10 points higher yeah i'm i'm i'm with heath on this i can you just read just you should just read adam's note below corey seeker is that what he put no Go ahead, Heath. Corey Seeger was the number four shortstop in Roto in 2016. He was the number 45 overall player. Last year he was the number seven shortstop and the number 77 overall player. And those shortstop finishes are not counting Mani Machado, who is going to be a shortstop. And the thing, like he has been disappointing, I think, in Roto.

Because he doesn't steal any bases and short stops get you steals. It's kind of an area that a lot of fantasy owners will look at to get steals and say, okay, I'll take a shortstop, it will steal me bases. Steger doesn't do that. I really think he has to probably start hitting more home runs, like he'd said. And I think he might. I'm not trying to poo-poo on Corey Seeger. This is, I expect more than what we've got from him. Yeah.

But we haven't. But he was basically D.D. Gorgorius last year. Ooh. I mean, like, Didi was good. Statistically, he was. Yeah. Yes.

They pretty much had the same exact season. All right. I just think, like, yeah, I think the problem. If you rank them 50 first, you're missing out on the chance to get a breakout player. Because you're not going to get it. There are any other breakout players you could get. But you're not going to get. If you don't take Corey Seeger earlier than 51st overall, you're not going to get them.

That's correct. And you might miss out on like a huge breakout player. So do you have Alex Bregman higher than Corey Seeger, Heath? I don't believe I do. Because I feel like I have both of them higher than 51st. Okay. If I do, you do have Alex Bregman hire. That seems silly.

I do. You mean he does? He said Scott. He's just, he's just used to, you know, decorating. Whoa. I'm pooping on Heath right now. By saying, by calling him Scott. When people never tell the difference between your voices.

I call them silly. I do have them for the same auction value. And, like, maybe I could drop Bregman just a little bit. it but yeah that's true you do whatever you want Alex Breggman's had the one good half season so it's just hard to justify

Breggman over Seeger I think he steals bases that would be the only yeah you know what I didn't try that hard to get a big base deal in the last rotomac we did

and projections show me finishing sixth in the category I think six is not good much six is fine finish six and everything you know where you finish if you finish six and everything

yes you probably don't finish first, but if you finish six and one thing, it's really not a problem. All right, guys, let's wrap it up. Let's move on. Thank you for the email, Mike. Appreciate you trying to divide this family here on fantasy baseball today. News and notes, Carlos Rodon's been cleared to throw. He had off-season shoulder surgery. The Royals signed Alcidas Escobar to a one-year deal for $2.5 million. The Mets signed Jose Reyes to a one-year deal. he's going to be kind of a utility player. The Mets are going closer by committee to start the season.

We don't know for how long they'll do this. J. Reyes Familia, Anthony Swarzac, A.J. Ramos, Jerry Blevins. They will all potential, I mean, you know, we hear this all the time. I don't know what it means, but they all potentially get some save chances. The Mets could also use J.Ris Familiar for multiple innings, apparently. So if there's one guy you're drafting in the Mets bullpen, who would it be? There's not. I would draft Ramos, but.

They're both kind of out, a little outside of the mixed league threshold for me. Yeah. All right. The Philly signed Francisco Rodriguez to a minor league contract. The Diamondback signed Neftali Feliz to a minor league contract. How high do you guys have Archie Bradley, by the way, in your rankings? Not as high as I would if I really thought he was going to be the Diamondbacks closer at the start of the year. You don't think you will be?

Well, they were resistant to that idea early on when Fernando Rodney was struck. and Bradley was doing great. They were resistant to that idea because they didn't want to lock them into that role and then have a hard time moving them to the rotation afterward. There's been some rumblings of them trading Patrick Corbyn this offseason, which, you know, presumably Bradley would be the one to step in then. So, yeah, I'm skeptical. I'm skeptical.

They obviously need somebody better than Brad Boxberger to take, to take ninth inning, duties if they're going to do that, but there's still plenty of time. The Mets, the Yankees, rather, AA affiliate renamed their team from the Trenton Thunder to the Trenton Pork Roll. It's gross. I like it. I think it's great. Well, no, like the actual pork roll is gross. Oh, pork rolls are great.

What is a pork roll? I'm not sure, but they sound great. I like, it's like, uh, pork is my favorite meat? Is it, it's not like a pork rind, is it? No, it's like a spam type thing. Oh, then it's not good. Yeah, it's like... But is the actual pork?

It looks highly processed. Pork-based, processed meat. Yeah. Commonly available in New Jersey. Oh. We're going to get some pushback on this, but it looks disgusting. It's one of those regional things that... Don't say we, Chris.

You're on I hate pork roll island. I think somebody should send us some pork roll. rolls to try out. You can get it here. All right. Pork roll eating contest on the air later this week. Looking forward to it. Atlanta's mascot blooper is a clear rip-off of the Philly Fanatic. It is

shameful. So take that. And good news baseball fans, Brockmeyer is coming back pretty soon. Great show. Watch Brockmeier. It's awesome. No, never seen it. You're like, it's just that's just because I'm touting

it and you're doing yourself a disservice. Heath by not watching Brock Meyer. Okay. I've heard good things. It's incredible. It's so funny. All right, here we go. We want to investigate one-hit wonders.

We want to investigate the sophomore slump. Okay? So I think the sophomore slump is kind of tricky. So let's start with one-hit wonders. And, I mean, it was really hard to come up with a list of names. I know I'm going to forget guys. But Aladmus Diaz was clearly a one-hit wonder. He was a total bust.

Jonathan V.R. was a one-hit wonder. He was a total bust. And I see some similarities between VR and Witt-Maryfield because it was like... What? Yeah, here's exactly what I was going to say, right? Last time, on Friday show, the show ended with Chris calling Whitmerfield the bus saying he was, I think, planting his flag. Right, and we yelled at him. Because Scott said, you don't doubt the batting average.

He's had the same batting average two years in a row. The only thing that you would doubt would be the power. And you could have said the same exact thing about Jonathan V.R. No, I argued for three solid months while Jonathan V.R. was in my bust call in last year that he was not going to hit 285 because he needed a 3.73 Babbip to do it. Yep, Whitmerfield's Babbap is just a little over 300. The big differences between those two for me is Whitmaneryfield makes a lot more contact. And the quality of V.R's contact in his great year wasn't that great. It's fine for Maryfield. It justifies what he's. doing. All right, fine. But he did hit 284, two years in a row.

And then last year... One of those is over 128 plate appearances. Yeah. But Marrifield, how many played appearances did he have in 2016? It wasn't a full-time player, was he? No. I don't believe he was. Not at the start of the year.

He had probably in the 250 range. 332. Oh, even higher. All right, I had Rick Porcelo on here. But he's had two good years in his career. Danny Valencia on here. He had a great 2015, and really nothing since. Steve Pierce was amazing in 2014.

It had 930 OPS, and then was terrible, and then was fine again in 2016, and then was terrible in 2017. Brandon Crawford had a great 2015 season with 21 homers. He hasn't hit more than 14 in any other year. Yvonne Nova with Pittsburgh last year, had a 306 ERA and a 110 whip, and then he was a total. He was okay for a little while, but ended up with a 414 ERA and a 1-2-8 whip. So, that's Yvonne Nova. So, I mean, there are a lot of examples. of these one-hit wonders not doing well. Then again, you have Dallas Keikle. You've J.D. Martinez.

He's probably the best example. You've Justin Turner. Maybe Eduardo Nunez. So for both one-hit wonders and sophomore slump, there is no hard and fast rule. But what is your general take, starting with the guys who come out of nowhere and have big seasons and what to expect from them afterwards. So the one thing that you notice about a lot of the one hit wonders, and I think specifically of Yvonne Nova and Rick Porcelo here, is that those are both guys who got by with one really exceptional trait. Rick Porcelo's big season was a huge increase in called strike rate.

Yvonne Nova, I think it was a similar thing for him. He got to Pittsburgh, all of a sudden became this much better pitcher, but the track record just wasn't there. It relies on being exceptional, and I just, it's really hard to do that. Here's how I would, starting with the one hit wonders, there's a sliding scale for me. If you have been in the major leagues for multiple,

several years, three, four, five plus, and then at 29, 30 or older, you just go do something you've never done before, and it looks like a complete and total outlier. I don't usually buy it. If you, I am more likely to buy it if you've been in the minors for all that time and then do it, but not as likely as if you've been doing it before. And the other thing I look at is does jive with your batted ball profile or with your fit for a pitcher. Is there just an obvious thing that stands out and looks like you were lucky?

Okay. So, I mean, obviously you have to look beyond the numbers at some of the skill indicators. I probably didn't look as close as I should on VR last year. I was a little more open to the idea. And, you know, he did some things better. Like Walking Moore was the main one. That was what kind of gave me the benefit of the doubt with him. But quality of contact wasn't that great.

Still struck out a ton. We just talked about him. I think the biggest thing for me is, you know, as long as the skill indicators match up with the production, I buy into it when it's worth buying into. Like if he's going, you know, at a three or four round discount of what he did during that, that breakout year, then it's usually worth the gamble to me because at least half the time it's going to pay off, it seems like. So, you know, I try not to make it any more complicated than that.

I am happy to take the value when the value presents itself. Once upon a time, Jose Batista was a one-year wonder, right? 2010. And he went about in the third round the following year when obviously he performed like a first rounder. Right. He broke out. Right. The following year, he hit 302 with 43 home runs.

J.D. Martinez, I think, is an amazing example. The guy was nothing. And then both of those guys, well, definitely, Bautista. Martinez changed the swing, right? Yeah. Bautista did too. Yeah, that's what I said. Yeah.

And they were both with new teams. Yeah, that's a good point. Bautista was like his 17th. Yeah, and Justin Turner is another good example of this of a guy. Justin Turner was another guy who. who he's right there with Chady Martinez is probably, you know, and Daniel Murphy is the most vocal advocates of the flyball revolution. So, yeah, if there's,

and Ryan, if there's a good enough explanation for the change, like I was fine, I was, you know, I was excited to draft J.D. Martinez the next year, excited to draft Bautista the next year. Yeah,

if there was a good enough explanation for the change, and, again, the skill indicators aren't suggesting it was a fluke, and I'll usually buy into it also. But like J.D. Martinez's breakout. happened when he was 26, right? Yeah. Something like that.

Something like that. 26, 27. But after, you know, the Astros, one of the smartest organizations in baseball, it was apparent even then before they were winning, that they knew what they were doing. Yeah, I didn't think we knew how smart he was, how smart they were then. I saw it. Yeah. I don't know that everybody did, but I agree with a lot of the moves they were making.

He had very good minor league numbers, but they were very different from the player he became. He was hitting like three, three, three. 3340 every year in the minors. Okay. So who are we worried about this year as a one-hit wonder other than Whitmerfield that we talked about last year, last week? Well, Heath's worried about everybody but Whitmeryfield. I'm not really worried about, like, Marcel O'una. I don't think he's going to be as good as he was, but I don't know.

I'm not worried about him being bad. Does he qualify as a one-hit wonder? Adam put him on the list. No, well, that was Chris's list, which I, you know, which didn't exactly jive with everything. Like, I don't think, I don't think Aaron Judge is a one-hit wonder because he's only been in the league for like one and a half years. There's like four first baseman. Yes. Logan Morrison.

Yeah, I got all those guys on Ryan Zimmerman. Yeah. Ryan Zimmerman. I'm not sure why Aaron Judge wouldn't count, though. No, because it didn't come out of no way. He counts for the same way that Whitmerfield does for me. His career just kind of started. Not really.

He didn't just start playing baseball last year. But he had prospect type, too, and Whitmerfield didn't. What's that? Aaron Judge had prospect type and Whitmaneryfield didn't. Kind of. People believed in Judge as a minor leaguer and they didn't believe in Maryfield. To an extent. But nobody believed in him, I would say relative to where they ended up last year,

they both overperformed their expectations and their minor league production by about the same. Okay. All right. So look, I think to do this right, I think it's got to be guys who really came out of nowhere. I don't think Aaron Judge really qualifies. Andrewton Simmons is someone you put on your list, Chris, and I think that's a really good one. For him,

I don't remember off top of my head, but I really think for Simmons it was like one good stretch last year that really buoyed his numbers, and he finished terribly, and he's been a really bad hitter for most of his career. So that's a guy, Andrewton Simpson's like, he may be gets some steals. I don't expect anything from him with the bat this year. I mean, we're kind of

what we're kind of doing right now is taking the list and saying, well, I'd like this guy, so I don't agree. But, like, John Carlos Stanton played at the level he's never played at last year. John Carlos, no, it is not just backing up a breakout year. John Carlos Stanton does not qualify as a one-hit wonder. Why not? Because what are you talking about?

If he had 20 hits, Chris. But if John Carlos Stanton goes back to being the guy he was in 2016, he's a massive best. That is not... That is not what we're talking about. We're not talking about outlier seasons. We're talking about guys who have no pedigree, no fantasy expectations, Aledmus Diaz, Jonathan V.R.

Came out of nowhere, had a big season, and now you have to pay up for them in draft. We're not talking about guys who were just coming off their best seat. The one-hit wonder in music is not a band that just has their best album ever. Right. Yeah, I guess I'm just not sure why Aaron Judge doesn't count then. Because he was a pretty big prospect, and he didn't have that much failure either. He had a little bit of failure in 2016, and he had, like, Judge is definitely a bus candidate. I think he would be on my bus list for sure if he goes in the first round.

But I just don't think he fits this description here. Aaron Judge outperformed his minor league OPS by 200 points last season. I know he's not going to hit 50 home runs. Like, I know he's not. Maybe by not that extent. But like, I just, I don't know that you can, it's not apples to apples comparing major league numbers and minor league numbers. There were plenty of scouting reports that raved about Judge's power.

Yeah. And I didn't see it, but clearly I was wrong. But I want to focus on, I want to focus on Angel to. Simmons. I want to focus on... I think Travis Shaw fits. Travis Shaw, I think absolutely, if it's Tommy Fam. Was it the vision issue for Tommy Fam? Sure, Marvin Gonzalez.

I think these are interesting players. Fam is probably someone we should definitely focus on because Scott is super high on him. But this was a little surprising to you, wasn't it? What Fam did last year? Oh, yeah. I mean, it was surprising. Like, he's a player who I always thought, and, you know, I wasn't alone. It was partially because I was reading what some of these...

the real prospect gurus were writing. He's a guy who I thought could have a break out one day. Now, it seemed like that opportunity had passed him by because he was, what, 30? But he had a lot of injuries throughout his minor league career. He had a vision issue that he just got corrected last year. And the opportunity presented himself and he took off with it. Now, reasons I like Tommy Pham is kind of like what I was saying about Trey Turner last year, is just he contributes.

He is so good at so many different things that even if he slips in an area, he still has a lot to fall back on. And we saw that last year with Turner. He slipped in terms of batting average in terms of how many line drives he hit, and he was still a stud. Heath wants him ahead of drought.

So in Pham's case, OBP over 400. He was a 2020 guy. Even though he didn't reach the majors until May, he hit for the kind of, line drive rate and, you know, the kind of batted ball profile that would lead to the high badbitt that would lead to the high batting average he had. He's just good at everything. Now, if there's any knock on his performance last year, it's that he had this fly ball rate kind of like Yelich did.

So will he have another power season like he did? I can't say for sure. I think 15 plus homeruns is a safe bet for fam. And again, he's so good at so many other things that he could live with a reduced home run total. Are you guys, Chris or, Kreeh, are you worried about Tommy Fam just being a dud, a total bust this year? I have Fam ranked higher, I think probably than Chris would say that I should. Which is where? Yeah, you actually are pretty high on fan. Yeah, I'm close, like, you think Scott has to fam too high. If you were ranking, you wouldn't have him as high as us. I have, I have no idea. Actually, I think in Roto, Heath has fam higher than I do because he puts such a priority on the I have him one spot behind where you do.

I have him at 11. Okay. And I'm not quite comfortable with that. I think he's more likely than any one of my top 15 to just be cut in June. That's a fair statement. But he also has the potential to do things that not very many players do. So if he is like Starling Marte or good Starling Marte even, which shouldn't be that surprising. That's the kind of discount I'm talking about, too, because I feel like last.

Last year, on a per game basis, he was what Cody Ballinger was. I mean, that's like second round production, right? The earliest I've seen him go in a draft so far as round four, and I've seen him go as late as round nine before. So it's definitely a discount. Okay, they're talking about Tommy Fam here. Back to the list that Chris provided. Mike Stochis. What did you say, Chris?

It's a good list. It's a really bad list. John Carlos Stanton is, Reese Hoskins has been in the league for like 50 games. You put him as a one-hit wonder. You missed the point of the exercise, sir. I'm sorry you didn't define it well. It's kind of like the argument we have sleepers and breakouts every. Now we have to define what one-hit one is.

The lesson here is Adam sent us all an email asking for something. Scott and I ignored him and did nothing. And now you're getting criticized for trying to. You're welcome, basically. You're welcome, Scott. But Mike Mastakis is kind of interesting. He did have a breakout year. Do you think he did enough at the beginning of 2016 to back Mike Mastakis to back what he did in 2017?

For me, the answer is no, because that was 113 plate appearances. And even in the beginning of 2016, I mean, what, he hit 240? I can't. I thought I didn't have a chance to look it up and I'm sorry I was doing off memory. I thought he had a pretty good 2015 he finished really well if I remember right and he had quite a bit of power at the beginning of 2016

okay that's what it was then sure and Musacus is one that if he signs in the right place then I could totally change my like if he goes and signs a one year deal in New York because no one will pay him then I'm going to change my tune but Chris has said it his batted ball profile doesn't look that much different from when he wasn't very good.

It changes every. Like my assumption right now, my assumption in the rankings is Mike Mustakis is not coming back to the Royals. And Mike Mustakis is going somewhere better to hit than the Royals playing. Because basically anywhere you could think of him going, it would be much better scenario, much better park for him. And that bad at ball profile is an extreme power-friendly bad at ball profile. So the dream scenario is the Yankees. It's not, I disagree.

I don't think it's an extreme power batted ball profile. He just doesn't, he just doesn't hit the ball very hard. Right. The fly ball and pull percentage is great. Right. But he's pretty much, like he's got a career 28% hard contact rate. He was 31.9 last year. That's not an extreme.

That's an extreme flyout to write profile. The big problem is of where he's playing his home games, because it's, it's tough to, it's, tough to clear the fences. Like nobody, he hit the most home runs in Royals history last year, and obviously he wasn't coming anywhere close to that before last year. So I, you know, I could call it a fluke if he was going back there. But I'm hopeful he's not going back there. You know, the deeper we're getting the offseason, the more likely it seems he is going

to wind up with the Royals again, in which case I'll drop him. But, yeah, I think he's going to hit a lot of home runs if he goes to one of these The Yankees, obviously. The Cardinals would not really be an improvement, and that's one of the possibilities that's been mentioned. Would it be not much of an improvement? According to Fan graphs, the park factor for left-handed power hitters, for the Royals, it's 93.

For the Cardinals, it's 95. I mean, it'd be similar. Let me just also say that I would, since I'll never actually hold up my end of this, but I'll just say it for entertainment purposes, if the Yankees sign Mike Mastakis, I will stop being a Yankees fan, because that's how certain I am that they won't. sign Mike Mustak.

It just doesn't make any sense. I don't think they can afford it. I think it makes a lot of sense. We need to start a GoFundMe. I would like a different bet. How about this? If the Yankees sign Mike Mustakis,

then every time he hits a home run, you have to tweet hashtag Moostong. Fine. I'll do that. That would actually will hold up by the of the bargain. Is stack corner.com shows a bigger disparity in park factors

for home runs. then what was it you were doing, baseball prospectus? And that could be the result of one year versus multi-year. Multi-year is usually the better way to go. So it depends on what the methodology involved is. Last one here. Travis Shaw.

Okay, I think was there any prospect pedigree for Travis Shaw? He was kind of second-tier prospect. A guy who, I'm not sure he ever cracked the top 100 list, but he was always, you know, on the fringes of it. And then with Boston, you know, you look at his first year, the numbers were good, but it was so heavy early production, and then he was terrible. His last 38 games, he had a 692 OPS, 2016, last 106 games, he had a 621 OPS. And then last year, Shaw, actually final two months, he was awful,

but it may have been because of a foot injury. He kept fouling the ball off his foot. He is the mayor of Ding Dong City. Do you think Travis Shaw was a one-hit wonder? Do you think he will be good again in 2018? He was, sorry, Heath last thing. He was seventh at third base and points, fourth in Roto. The last two months don't bother me quite as much, just because Travis Shaw was dealing with a foot injury, but more than that, he had, and you can read about it online.

He had a terribly difficult year personally. And his numbers at Miller Park when he was at home were awful last year compared to what he did on the road, which is really weird because he plays at Miller Park. So I view him not as a one-year wonder. I think he's going to hit in the middle of a Brewer's lineup that's going to be outstanding. I would expect him to perform a little better at Miller Park and probably a little worse on the road. But he's a low-end number one third basement for me. Okay. Yeah.

Everybody's pretty sold that what he did, what Travis Shaw did last year was legit? Yeah, for the most part. I think based on the way he was performing the first four months there needed to be some correction and that correction came

over the final two months foot injury or not I think where his numbers ended up are about where they should have ended up then you know what we'll save sophomore slump for Wednesday show

or whenever our next show will be probably on Wednesday and take Maybe you guys can contribute some games for that one Maybe well Chris crap all over your dreams

Give me like 10 year veterans for the sophomore slump. You know who could be a sophomore slump? Aaron Judge and Reese Hoskins. Right. No. That would have been a good list for them to be on. No, they were top prospects. They can't be. No, that doesn't apply to the sophomore slump list. Aaron Judge was in the majors two years ago. He can't be. Yes, John Carlos Stanzas was a one-year wonder. Come on, Chris Towers. Perennial first round pick was a one-year wonder. Stick it with it. Oh, man. Sting with it. And that is only the second craziest thing I've heard today with Heath Cummings having

Mike Trout, fourth overall in his roto rankings. Yeah, he's been top four, what, twice in the last four years? You got a 50-50 shot. That is. I might be too high. You know, that is having too much confidence in your projections. That was what that is. Do you, there's no reason to doubt Trout.

Unless you think Mike Trout is injury prone. Do you think he's injury prone? I would not say he's injury prone, no. He didn't get hurt once. Then you are insane. No, he got hurt twice. He had the worst thing, but he played. through it two years ago.

Right, right. I think he's more likely to get injured than a first basement. Okay, that's probably true. Is that a shortstop? Definitely not true. Depends on the shortstop. Let's say one who broke his wrist last season, runs a lot. It's probably equal.

Head first line. Thankfully, the shortstop's better. I actually could get on board with the Trey Turner one. I wouldn't do it, but I could see it. But the Goldsmith one, I just think, is Coup bananas. Makes no sense. The Al-Truve is all in agreement, right? Mike Traubes was 35 bases last year if he didn't get hurt.

I feel like Trout should go first everywhere. I can understand somebody taking out Tuvei ahead of him specifically in a Roto League because there's so few elite options at second base. And he's helpful in the two places that are hardest to help. Yes. Batting average. He is the batting average guy. Right. Okay, here we go. Emails from Mike from the mitten.

Mike says... Michigan. Oh, okay. I don't know. The lower half of Michigan? Oh. Like a mid. Okay.

How many big league endings do you think Michael Kopec will get with the White Sox this year? I could keep him in a six-by-six categories league that has strikeouts and K-per-9. Michael Kopeck. How many innings? I've put it similar to what Luis Castillo got last year, which I think was about 80. There was a report this week that they are not making it a priority to get him up right now. I'll push it, though. His last, I think it was a dozen starts or so, the walks were solved.

He stopped walking people, and that's amazing, given his stuff. He's going to be a stud. And this is part of the Yoha Mancada trade, right? The Chris Sale trade? Yep. Yeah, Michael Copeland. I think he's going into, you know, it's a leap to say this. I think he's going to end up being a better player than Moncada.

Okay, guys, next email comes from, oh, man, I don't have a name. Damn it, I feel like Chris Towers right now. He says, all I have to say is, wow, I didn't think underwear could make that big of a difference, but meundies are amazing. Thanks for changing my everyday life, and I will back that up. I was wearing my me undies yesterday. I am wearing my miundis right now. They are incredible. person who Adam can't be bothered to learn his name.

Sorry, you didn't put it in the email. If you want some MeUndies, we don't have a baseball promo code yet, but if you go to meundies.com slash FFT, you get a 20% discount on your first quarter. Yes, they're awesome. Meundies.com slash fFT. I'm sure we'll have a baseball address, too. Pick one from Mr. Meundis.

Edwin Diaz, Felipe Rivera, or Bradhand? Who do you think is the best pitcher of the three? At this point, I don't think it makes much sense to worry. Alex Columet led the major and saves by six on a mediocre team. So I just, I don't think it makes that much sense to worry about team quality. I do. It makes sense to a degree, but like I still see the Padres as like this bottom of the division club. So the hand is third for me, but I go Rivero first.

It's a very fine line, though. I think the Padres are going to win more games than the Pirates. That's the thing, right? I'll go hand Edwin Diaz and Rivera. Well, that's the thing. Like, Chris, I mean, it's a good point that Colomé led baseball and saves, but it's hard to do that on a terrible team. Tampa Bay was 80 and 82. Yeah, but if you're –

Do we really think there's more than like a 10-win gap between any of these teams? Yes, absolutely. I think the Mariners are 10 wins better than both of those teams. I would expect that they are. My concern is I think Edwin Diaz is. I think Edwin Diaz is, he had a couple pretty bad rough patches last year. He lost the job for a couple weeks last year. Yeah, I think he's maybe the most likely to lose the jump.

Otherwise, it might also be the best pitcher of the. I think he has the highest upside and the lowest floor. But I would go with hand. So you know what they say? Two hands. A Brad in the hand. Better than an Edward in the bushes. Oh, wait, wait, wait, no.

He says hand. Scott, who do you say? Rivera. And Chris? Yes. I'll just not be helpful. It'll be fun. All right.

Next email is from Will Lyons, but you can call me the big dog or the commish. You heard right. I am the commissioner of our league and very in charge. I've won three of the last five seasons. I'm very good at fantasy baseball. I don't normally ask for or need help, but I thought I would throw out of a bone. I don't know why. Outstanding.

Who between, yeah, I know. Who between Javier Baez and Ian Hap will get enough at bats? justify drafting them at shallow second base. He's the Hap guy here. Oh, that's what's happening. Yeah. He's the one I'm most skeptical of the playing time, and that's the only reason I rank Bias ahead of him.

I think Hap is more interesting if I felt like he had a clear path to a Bats, but that's not the way he was handled last year. It's not the way Bias was handled last year. Oh, Bias? Well, certainly in the post-season, Bias was every day. I mean, if all Harvey Baez does is what he did last year, that's a really valuable player, especially the fact that he's going to be eligible everywhere. 23 homers, 10 steals, 75 runs, 75 RBI.

That's not a really valuable player. I mean, how many plate appearances are at Baths? 500. That's a borderline. That's a really valuable player in Roto. Ian Hap had 80, no, 90 less plate appearances than Javi Baez. he hit one more home run, stole two less bases. I will go with Hap.

He can play the outfield too. I guess by as can. I don't know if a 500 plate appearance guy is valuable, unless he gets hurt, you know, and that's why he has 500 players. Correct me if I'm wrong, Chris. I think when you're saying he's valuable, like he's somebody that should be owned in every Roto League.

Not he's like... I think he was probably the way he plays. He played last year. He was a starting caliber player. Right. Right. And somebody you could put in a few different spots, and that has value. I don't think he was saying, though, that Baez is like this, you know, guy you should really reach for in drafts or a high-end player or anything like that. Although, if he somehow got an everyday role, I think he would be, I would probably rank him as a top 10 shortstop if I knew who's going to play.

I kind of think both of them are going to play every day. Okay, Baez did finish as like the 11th or 12th best second baseman in Roto. Last email here. This is from Zach. True or false, punting a category is admitting you are incapable of playing the waiver wire. That's an interesting way to phrase it. And I'd be inclined to say true. The way I've put it is that...

What? Scam. Come on, man. Punting a category says that you're incapable of playing the waiver wire. Well, the way I've put it in the past. a leap. The way I put it in the past is that if you commit to punting a category in the draft, you're boxing yourself into, you're leaving yourself with no maneuverability in season because you can't then make up ground that you've gotten a zero in all season long. You're too

far back. And obviously, the way you're maneuvering in season is by making waiver moves, by assets you didn't expect to have at the start of the year, suddenly you have, and they can be helpful for you if you employ them properly. So, you know, I'm not saying you have to make steals or saves or whatever it is your punting, your top priority. You could give it less emphasis than maybe most other owners would, but you can't just ignore it. Like you can't just say, well, I'm only going to finish 10th anyway, so I might as well get none. But if you were taking a test...

Because you don't know. You don't know what you're going to get off the waiver wire in season. But if you were taking a test and you had to pass it to keep your license as a fantasy baseball writer and this question were on the test, true or false, punting a category is admitting you are incapable of playing the waiver wire? Well, it's obviously a bombastic statement. I think it means you shouldn't be playing roto. If you punt a category? Yeah, like you're not going to win. Yeah, I don't know. I largely punted wins last year in Roto.

I... I will say... Where did you play in Wendow? I can punt. Like, I'm not sure if you can punt wins. Because, like, if you're punting wins, you're probably also punting strikeouts. If we're literally talking punting, then that means assuring yourself last place in that category. I don't really think you can punt wins, like Chris said. Well, you can if you just go with relief pitchers.

Yeah, if you just go with relief pitchers. But otherwise, you're going to be getting some wins. The only categories you can truly punt are saves and steel. Is that from Royal Magazine League last year? Yeah. I'm not sure. You guys are forgetting about head-to-head categories, punting is a different...

Right, that's what I'm saying. You can punt in head-to-head categories. We got to go! We have gone overtime today. Fun show. A little feisty? Yeah, maybe a little bit of a case of the Mondays. I don't know.

You guys. We ate you, Chris. So, yeah, what we learned today is... You know what? I'm not going to take a cheap shot. Just going to end the show. This is my worst outro yet. What we learned today is that I'm still

Eight years into this job, awful at ending shows. Goodbye.