Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/29: Old Dudes; Strikeout Help; Advanced Metrics (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 29, 2019

Starting the show with a discussion about advanced metrics. How important is hard contact rate? What about ground balls, fly balls, line drives and everything else? Then we've got some rankings debates for Carlos Martinez (7:25) and Willson Contreras (11:51) ... How old is too old? We discuss some aging players like Josh Donaldson (15:00), Nelson Cruz (21:40), a couple of aces (24:55) and Buster Posey (28:22) among others ... News and notes (33:33), Team Name Tuesday (38:30) and Heath's help with the Strikeouts category (43:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy! Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris. Welcome everybody to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. It is Tuesday, January 29th.

I am back from the long leave. And hopefully Scott does not pick a part. part my intros the way he was doing a heap. That was really mean stuff, Scott White. What? His intros were bad. Leave the poor guy alone. He's not a professional introer. I want, please, later this week, we've got two more podcasts coming up this week, right? Yes, three a week. Can we please, can we please on Wednesday or Friday or Thursday or whenever we're going to podcast again? The next two podcasts, I would like for Scott White to do the intro. Fine. That works for me. You good with that, Scott?

I mean, it wasn't like I was picking on his style. He had factual errors in the intro that needed correcting. He said, welcome back, and he jumped all over him for that. Welcome back. We weren't on a break. We were on a break. It was a new show. We hadn't done the show the day before.

It had been two days since the podcast. I was fine with it. Like, are they just listening on a continuous stream one after another? Listen, I want to thank you guys for holding down the fort. Factual errors. You did a great job. We're going to do some rankings debates today. And I chose the guys for the rankings debates, and I think I did a terrible job picking.

I really did. These are going to be really just talking about a couple players. I don't know where much of the debate is. So we'll talk about that. Old dudes, a theme of today's show. I'm going to look at hopefully eight old dudes, and you tell me if they're too old. Well, I've got to get my Adam Sandler soundbite queued up. Are they too old to be good?

And then Heath is going to give a sleeper, a breakout, and a bust for home runs, and for strikeouts. He's been doing that with categories. plus your emails at fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. I want to start with a little advanced metrics talk, little fan graftsy talk here. Nerd alert. Yeah, nerd alert. How much do you guys trust batted ball data?

Because I am tired of writing down had a career high hard contact rate last year. As Chris points out, he's not on the show, but he emailed us. What did he say? There was a 3.5% increase in league-wide hard-hit percentage last year. Yeah. When you're talking about league-wide, that's significant. That's huge.

I mean, some guys had like 15% increase, you know. Yeah, but like, okay, so some of the guys are talking about today, Donaldson, Miggie, Nelson Cruz, Buster Posey, who's old for a catcher, Robinson Canoe. Four of those five hitters had career high, hard contact rates, and it didn't necessarily translate into pre-year-old. production. Well, I think you just have, everything's relative. Yeah.

And so you do have to look at it in that light. They should have a career high, hard contact rate. Now, if they were worse than they've been in the past and they had a career high, hard contact rate, and it went up more than league average did, then maybe we've got something there. But you also have to look at not just how hard they're hitting the ball, but how hard they're hitting the ball in certain instances. We have some guys like Eric Hosmer

who seems to create a lot of hard contact and pulled balls, but they're all ground balls. And then he hits the ball the other way in the air. So you have to dig a little deeper than just his hard contact was this. But it's not a bad starting place, as long as you know what the new normal is. Right. It's to me the least reflective of anything performance-wise

in the baddaball profile, how hard he hit it. Like the player who stands out the most, where you say oh okay look how hard he hit the ball and the numbers improved is David Peralta who hit whose hard contact rate was 17% higher last year

everything else was basically the same and he doubles his more than doubles his home run total he goes from having a career high 17 home runs to career high 30 but generally the more impactful changes is how many fly balls they're hitting versus ground balls, how many line drives they're hitting.

That says more normally about the production than hard contact versus soft contact. And I would disagree with that, which is probably not surprising. I think hitting the ball in the air is important. Line drive rate is, it's very important. Like hitting line drives is awesome. And it's something that we want guys to do.

That's how you get a high Babbitt is by hitting line drives. And if you don't hit line drives, you get a low Babbitt. Line drive rate is very, very important. very, very wonky, especially mid-season. It can just bounce all over the place because it's a pretty low number. And so I like to look at it personally more in terms of how many balls they're hitting in the air versus how many balls they're hitting on the ground. I don't particularly like line drive rate in small sample sizes.

And then, you know, just to keep this going with the guys we're talking about today, Miguel Cabrera, yeah, his career, not exactly a career high, hard contact rate for him, I don't think, But it's still very high, but so many ground balls last year. And he was on pace for 12 home runs. He only played 38 games, but he was on pace over 155 games for 12 home runs. So, yeah, there are a lot of things to look at. We got an email. I think it was from Gretchen.

She said, which metrics do you guys look at? I think we sort of covered that. Gretchen? I think so. Gretchen, who used to email us like 10 years ago? Let me see. Let me see, Scott. I'm not sure.

Gretchen. I guess there's more than one Gretchen in the world, but there can't be that many. I would guess we have dozens of Gretchen's that listen to it. Yeah, I hear you reference things like hard hit rate, line drive, percentage, etc. But don't really know what value I should be looking for if I look a player up on fan graphs. That's a blast from the past. That's like KCR5 code times. One thing I would tell you that would help with that, Gretching,

because I think she also mentioned really not knowing necessarily when we say a certain stat, what is good and how much better they are than good. Also, on fan graphs, you can go to league stats, and you can go to batted ball data and see what the league average was for last year, and then you can kind of see what they were better than league average at and what they were worse than league average. If you're looking for a reference point, when we're talking about somebody with a 24% line drive rate,

it's probably helpful to know what league averages. Do you agree that if you find a guy with a really good hard contact rate and an increasing fly ball rate, that that's somebody that could break out if he hasn't already. With power, yeah. That's a good, I mean, that's like a good starting point. Those are two of the indicators we were always hyping for Matt Carpenter. Right.

And the guy who jumps out for me, unfortunately, I don't think you can count him because of the injury, but Gregory Polanco, his fly ball rate went way up last year, and I was thinking maybe he's ready for a breakout and then he got hurt. But anyway, more on that some other time. Let's have a pretty boring rankings debate. So Carlos Martinez, the thing is, they're good rankings debates in points leagues. But your roto rankings for these two guys are much closer. Carlos Martinez is Scott's number 22 starting pitcher in both points and roto.

For Heath, he's 14th in points and he's 19th in Roto. So let me ask you with Carlos Martinez, why is he five spots higher in points leagues? This is one of his favorite players this year. Yeah, he's one of my favorite. Let's just make these points discussions, I suppose. And the big thing for Carlos Martinez in points leagues is that he's his part. Okay, so that's what it is. It's the RP eligibility that's boosting his points.

But it's also, like, I have him three spots higher than Scott and Roto. I think I feel a little bit more comfortable with him this year than Scott does. He had a bad year last year. He was just nearly constantly battling, I think it was a lat injury. Yeah. Yep. And it just would come and it would go. It would come and it would go.

And I don't think he ever quite got healthy. But you look at what he's done over the last three or four years. And he looks like a pretty safe bet to be 180 innings of the low threes ERA and pretty close to a strikeout for inning. Scott, well, why don't I tell you where Carlos Martinez has ranked over the past three years at starting pitcher when he has had a 301, 304 and 364 ERA? and he has thrown 179 and 2 thirds, 195 in a third, and 205 innings. This is not last year. This is 2015, 16, 17.

He was 26th in points, 24th in Roto. 20th in points, 18th in Roto. 14th in points, 15th in Roto. So it averages out to him being right around a top 20 pitch over the last three years before his injury plagued 2018 season. And you're not exactly low on Carlos Martinez. Scott, you have him 22nd, but lower than Heath. Yeah, I mean, I wasn't trying to lowball him in my ranking.

Looking at the names I have ahead of him, the one who I feel like I could drop up behind him is Madison Bumgarner, who's actually on my bus list. So I wouldn't mind doing that. Ahead of Bumgarner, I have Mike Clevenger, who I feel like is going to deliver similar numbers to Carlos Martinez, but without the, he's coming off a season that was just completely devastated by injury. just feel safer to me. Part of it's because I feel better about the elite closers than maybe he does. I actually have four closers

ahead of Carlos Martinez in my relief pitcher rankings. So in order to in order for those guys to be ahead of Martinez in my top 300, it forces Martinez down the starting pitcher rankings a little bit.

If I, and the thing about Martinez in points leagues, because I get that people would say, if he's a top 20 starter, you're not using as a relief pitcher. I like the idea. We talk about flexibility a lot on the offensive side. I like the idea with as crazy as relief pitcher looks right now and is likely going to be this year. If one of my closers loses their job,

I don't necessarily have to go find a closer. I can find a two-star pitcher for that week and just drop Carlos Martinez down to RP. So, He, if you think that people feel like if you have a top 20 starting pitcher, you're not going to use him as an RP? I don't agree with that. I think you would absolutely use him as an RP.

Well, like, if you're using a fourth round, he went in the fourth round of our most recent mock draft. And so if you're using a fourth round pick on him, which I think is justified. Yeah, me too. I think you may use them in both places. It just depends when you get to the 20th round and you're looking at your fifth starting pitcher

or your second relief pitcher, who's better then. Let me just see one last thing here. We look at 2000, let's just look at 2006. when he was about 20th and how many points Carlos Martinez scored. He scored 484 fantasy points. That would have made him, oh, surprising, the number five relief pitcher that year. Interesting, interesting. How about 484 fantasy points last year would have made him the number three relief pitcher in fantasy.

And I have a hard time looking at last year's relief pitcher rankings because I don't think anybody's getting 57 saves. Right, but he's the only one. Yeah, he's absurd. Yeah, that was crazy. Okay, next rankings debate is Wilson Contreras, who is third for both Scott and Heath in Roto, but in points leagues,

Heath has Wilson Contreras sixth, and Scott has Contreras third. So, Scott, I'll give you the first word here, while you're three spots higher on Contreras than Heath. I guess you're speaking for Heath now, in points leagues. I don't see anything points leagues

that would hold him back specifically in points leagues in a way it wouldn't have in Roto. You know, it's the catchers who I feel like specialize in their format are like Yadda or Molina.

I think it's significantly better in points league. Salvador Perez is probably better in Roto. But Contreras's skill set seems pretty well suited to both. So I don't know. I feel like you have to ask Keith.

Okay, I'll ask Keith. I agree with Scott made a point on last podcast or the podcast before about how unlucky Contreras was in terms of home runs. And I agree with that. And he's on a really good offense. So I think he's going to get some RBI and some runs. He's going to hit more home runs. I worry about the strikeouts.

And I think that those guys in that range from 3 through 6, 3 through 7 are all really, really close at, They are. Yeah, and I just expect those guys. He might score a few more runs, get a few more RBI, or some of those doubles turn into home runs, and so he's a little bit better on Roto. But I would prefer the other guy. I don't feel like he's very safe.

You don't feel like Contrares is a safe? I mean, it's such a bad year last year. 249, 10 home runs in 138 games, and you just mentioned 9.3% home run to fly ball rate when it was about 25% in his first two seasons. And it probably needs to be, you probably need to expect something like 18. 25 is not really very reasonable with his batted ball profile, I don't think. It's, yeah, it's, that's among like, that's Joey Gallo. The league outlier, home run to fly ball rates. Just the fact that he did it two years in a row makes me wonder if that's for the norm.

But last year was weird. Last year was drastically low. And I just feel like, I feel like the ultimate ceiling is higher for him than Grandal and Ramos. although, I mean, I could certainly see him being the worst of those three. Again, he was last year. Right. This is Wilson Contreras we're talking about, and I will say this. He tied with Salvador Perez for the most played appearances among catchers last year.

So that's a good thing for Contreras, particularly in points leagues. Yeah, there's no threats to his playing time. The Cubs like to mix and match players, but there's not really anyone else there. Okay, dokey. That's our not really debate ranking. debates. I'm going to defusing the debates, Adam. It's the middle child of me.

We're the conflict for Zolvers. You see. I see. I see. Heath, are you an only child? No, no, I'm the oldest. Oh, okay. How about that? And I'm the youngest. So look at it. Oldest, middle, youngest. And I'm the oldest on this podcast. Yeah, you are. And that, so let's talk about old dudes.

All right, let's talk about some guys who were getting up there in age. And, you know, this, honestly, this discussion doesn't necessarily have to be about age, but hey, it's January 29th, and I think... We have our resident Aegist. We do. We do. It's January 29th, and I think from now, before we start the previews in about two weeks, let's just talk about a lot of players.

Let's just get our thoughts out there on a lot of guys and get people acquainted with these players and some things they may not know about them. Anyway, Josh Donaldson. Let's start with Josh Donaldson. 33 years old, not that old, but he feels old, because he played 52 games last. year, 113 games the year before. Is he too old, he's Josh Donaldson? He's definitely not too old.

I think Donaldson has one of the widest ranges of outcomes of any player in fantasy baseball this year. Because, listen, he was bad last year. He was really never healthy last year. But if his calf's fine and he's 100% in good shape and comes into this season and doesn't suffer, another calf injury or another leg injury or any type of injury this year, he's got second round potential in what could be one of the best offenses in baseball.

And you've got him 14th. You've got him 14th at third base. I'm just going to look at Rodo rankings. You have Donaldson 14th and Scott has Donaldson 11th. What do you think? I don't feel good about that. I don't think there's a good place. You can't accurately rank him.

I like where you have him. I think that's, I think I have a hard time ranking of two, and I haven't actually drafted him in a single mock yet. I am much more comfortable with Justin Turner among old third baseman who have injury histories because his, we saw him bounce back in incredible way at the end of last season after dealing with a broken handmade bone earlier. And that was more of a, you know, a catastrophic moment that messed up his season as opposed to, to the nagging calf thing, which has plagued Donaldson for two years. But I also agree that the ceiling is still enormous. You look at 2017 when it was more like the first half that was ruined by the calf as opposed to the whole season. Well, the last two months of 2017, Josh Donaldson hit 302 with 22 homers and 1108 OPS. I mean, he was MVP caliber Donaldson again

just over a year ago. So if he does manage to stay healthy, it could be a great find. And the fact that third base is probably the deepest position this year, pairing Donaldson with like a Matt Chapman or even like a Mike Mustakis, might not be such a bad idea if you're willing to invest two roster spots on a third baseman,

which so far I haven't. but that might be something to consider more. Would you guys take Donaldson or Devers? Oh, Donaldson. Yeah, I think I have Donaldson ranked higher. I do, I have read some things about Devers that made me more optimistic that we get the post-type breakout, but I think there's definitely more upside for Donaldson.

Oh, go on. Heath, what did you read about Devers? I believe he's lost some weight. He needed to lose a little weight. I didn't want to say anything. I thought that was mean, but yeah. Blamed his weight problems last year. some of his injuries and his lack of energy. Okay. Okay. Maybe it works.

All right, Miguel Cabrera. Miguel Cabrera is an oldie, and he will be 36 years old in April. Still gives you the batting average. He batted $2.99. And I mean, this is a guy where the batted ball profile, well, the ground ball rate is pretty alarming. But he still hits the ball hard. We said that after 2017, when he batted $2.49 with 16-home runs. He was terrible.

Last year, his 155 game pace last year, Miguel Cabrera, was 299 with 12 home runs and 45 doubles. So I don't know. Who would you take first, Miguel Cabrera or Josh Donaldson? Definitely Donaldson. Miguel Cabrera is going to slide to the late rounds, you know, like the 15 and up range. Which I don't think there's much risk to taking him at that point. Both of the past two years he was playing through injury, obviously last. year it didn't last for very long but even in 2017 I think it was hip stuff he was dealing with back stuff

I can't remember exactly but he was he was playing through it the whole time which is part of the reason why we had hope for a bounce back last year there seems to be talked now that Victor Martinez is retired that Miguel Cabrera is going to be mainly a DH for the Tigers which yes please it could be huge I mean that's what I mean Nelson Cruz was a guy who could never stay healthy until he became a full-time D.H. And he enjoyed the best stretch of his career in his late 30s. You know, J.D. Martinez last year, he could never stay healthy until the Red Sox made him a full-time D.H. And now he's a first-round pick in fantasy.

I feel like Cabrera is somebody worth gambling on then, just for that. Yeah. The only thing that I question about that is that those guys move from the outfield where you actually have to run and move quite a bit. Miguel Cabrera has been getting hurt every year playing first base. You dive and stuff. You stretch. I'd like a full compilation of all the times Miguel Cabreras diving for balls in the last three years.

So I do want to go back to that him playing full-time VH though. Does that mean, Scott, that you're expecting John Hicks is going to be playing regularly at first? I think John Hicks is going to play a lot of catcher. Maybe he'll play first. They have a few options you can play first. Nico Goodrum. I don't know exactly how they're going to work it out.

So, Miggie actually went 120th in the latest mock draft that you guys did. Very end of the 10th round in a 12-team league. That's too early. He went right after, right in between Michael Conforto and Jurex and Profar, sitting there, Miguel Cabrera. Before David Dahl. Yeah, before A.J. Pollock. Yeah, that's two. What round was that?

End of round 10, 120th overall. Yeah, that's too high. He doesn't need to go that high. I will not be investing in him at that point. Nelson Cruz went 92nd overall, and Nelson Cruz still hit for a ton of power, 37 home runs, 97 RBIs in 144 games. He usually plays more like 154 games, but he batted just 256, and his Babbitt was super low. lowest of his career, I believe. Lois Babeth since 2006, despite a career high, hard contact rate for Nelson Cruz, 38 years old and still doing it.

Now with the twins. Who's optimistic? Because if Nelson Cruz is right, getting him 92nd overall as a total steal, who's optimistic about Cruz this year? For some reason, I feel like this is the year at all ends. Okay. I don't know if there's just something particularly. scary about the number 38 for me, the fact that he's changing environments.

I don't know what it is. Maybe it is just the fact that last year is, you know, it seems like mostly a bad luck thing with the BAB, but I don't know. Maybe that's raising some concern in me that the ceiling is lower than I had been presuming it was. I don't know, but for some reason I don't I don't want to invest them this year even like 98th overall is about the earliest I'd do it I'd be pleased to land him at 98 92 for the record I'd be pleased to land him there as well what what draft are you looking at for this for these numbers head to head 2019 fantasy baseball draft rep head to head mock draft has max scherzer at number one okay the one you just did yeah that was just a couple weeks ago yeah yeah um so this is nelson cruz we're talking about

Another thing that I noticed about him is he wasn't as consistent last year. Some people care about this. Some people don't. First 40 games, he had a 724 OPS. Next 58 games, he had a 1064 OPS. He was amazing. And then the last 46 games, he had a 704 OPS. It's kind of what I noticed in Andrew McCutcheon, like two years in a row, I think.

Just like he made his whole season on a torrid stretch. But for the most part, wasn't a very good fantasy option. And that's kind of what we saw with Nelson Cruz. I don't know if that means anything. I will say that he's better... Target field, I think I have this reverse. He has a 10-22 OPS in 30 games at Target Field compared to 849 at Safeco.

So maybe getting out of Safeco could help a little. Yeah, I mean, he was basically the same guy from Baltimore to Safeco. But it was one year in Baltimore. It was three in Safeco. Um, yeah. All right. All right, that's Nelson Cruz. So let me throw out some names.

Would you rather have Nelson Cruz or Josh Donaldson? Cruz. Yeah. Nelson. I think. That's a close call. Nelson Cruz or Jesus Aguilar? I feel like I need to be more in touch with my rankings to answer this.

I think Cruz. Of the top of my head, Cruz feels safer. I'll say Cruz. I think I actually have them back to back. I'm going to lump two players together for this next one. And this could be honestly like a one word answer. And we can move on. But do you have any concerns about 34-year-old Max Scherzer and soon to be 36-year-old Justin Verlander,

the top two pitchers in fantasy last year? Do you have any concerns about Scherzer and Verlander? No. I don't really either. Verlander's a little more concerning. But he's in my... I have five pitchers in the super elite tier at the top of that position. Among those five are both Scherzer and Verlander.

How did Verlander get this good? The Astros cheat, right? Because, I mean, he had a 106 ERA in 2017 with Houston in 34 innings, and then had like his third best season ever, which for most pitchers would be their best season ever last year, but he, of course, is a legend. 252 ERA. He wasn't this good before going to Houston, and he's going to be 36. I think the Astros take advantage of every possible edge that exists, whether it's in a computer or on a field or in practice.

And that's which is exactly what I want my team to do. I'm not prepared to call them cheaters, but I think they do every single thing that other teams should be doing to make their team and their players better. I'm not calling them cheaters. I was just joking. I just had a discussion about this on Twitter actually this morning because I stumbled across what Ryan Presley did last year in the bullpen for the Astros as a metal reliever. And it was astonishing to me. And so I tweeted it out. And it just seems like that's what almost every pitcher does when they go to the Astros.

They get a lot better. Yeah, yeah. It's interesting. All right. What he did statistically. I thought you're... Okay. No, statistically.

he was he was like look like Josh Hater right oh well now you peaked my interest I thought you I thought you came across the explanation behind the statistics no he threw 23 inning struck out 32 batters walked three at a 077 ERA and a 060

whip when oh oh he got traded in Houston oh okay yeah wow oh wow amazing Yeah. Okay. Three more. John Lester is 35 years old, and he is... Old. Too old.

To be good for your fantasy team, right? John Lester? Yeah, I mean, it's not just the age. It's what the age seems to be leading to, which is diminished stuff. And he got away with it for a good stretch last season. That's why his ERA is still good and his... When, I mean, he tied for the, he was among the NL leaders with 18 wins. But it started to catch up to him towards the end of the season.

And I don't want anything to do with him. I think, you know, he might be this year's Jake Garietta in terms of how far he ends up sliding. Swingy strike rate was way down. Strikeouts were down. Way down. It wasn't good. Two straight years for Lester with a whip just above one three. That's, you can't, no, no.

All right, two more hitters. Buster Posey. He's not that old. He's going to be 32 years old in March, but he's coming off, I don't know, pretty serious hip surgery, repairing a torn labor, a micro fracture and bone spurs, not guaranteed to be ready for opening day. Is this like the feeling that Scott gets about Nelson Cruz, I'm getting about Buster Posey. I don't know. I feel like we may have seen the last of Buster Posier as like a must-start catcher.

I'm glad that he had the hip surgery, and I have an explanation for what went wrong last year. I'm a little concerned, but he is falling far enough in drafts. He's going behind, I think he's going seventh or eight at catcher, and I still think in points leagues with as much as he walks and as little as he strikes out, he easily has top five potential. So I'm not going to shy away from drafting Buster Posey in points leagues, especially since he's going to be available likely in a double-digit rounds. Yeah, you know, I was actually with you, Adam,

until the news broke late last year that he needs this labor and repaired because he has been playing through it all season. That's a serious surgery, though. Yeah, it is, but it's not like, it's not one that ends up having a negative outcome. all that often. Okay. You know, it's going to take some work to come back for him

and it'll probably be harder for a catcher. But I think the, like Keith was saying in a points league, Posey has so many advantages built in for that format that he doesn't necessarily need to be a guy who hits 20 homers to stand out at the position. I think he'll be fine. Yeah, okay.

Honestly, I completely agree. I think in categories or roto, it might be different, but in a points league, he played 105 games last year. If he had played 140 games at his rate, which was he slugged 382. And yet if he had played 140 games, he would have been the number two catcher in points leagues. He would have tied Yasmani Grandal.

They averaged the same amount of fantasy points per game. That's the way I have it. Scott, you can double check, but Grandal and Posie, I think they write about the same, and Grandal was the number two catcher. So, yeah, he can, I just don't know that he's going to be a big difference maker, but certainly in point of. Yeah, I mean, if you're drafting him as the number two catcher, that's probably a mistake.

Yeah. Just in terms of relying on him to bounce back completely. That's a mistake. Last guy is Robinson Canoe. 36 years old. Guess who had a career high, hard contact rate last year? It's Robinson Canoe. What do we think?

Does Canoe have another good year left in him? Heath Cummings. I think he could. I mean, you've got the benefit of going to the Mets and their excellent training staff, so you know that help him manage his age a little bit. I'm a little bit concerned, though, as well. I mean, he hasn't. In Seattle, he was really, except for one year, never the player he was as a Yankee.

And I don't think we should ever expect him to bounce back to that player again. But he could be 20 homers, 80 runs, 80 RBI, and hit 290. Yeah, so what is that? What kind of player is that? That to me sounds like outside the top 100. Oh, yeah. Well, this is another player who's helped a lot by format

because his play discipline is so good. He was better on a per game basis than both Ozzy Albee's and Scooter Jeanette last year. Really? I don't think can know somebody. I'm going to invest highly in it in Roto. And I'm not going to invest highly in a minute points. Like, I haven't ranked behind those two.

but I think he might be a value in that format just because so many assume he's washed. Okay. He's a low-in starting second base. It didn't sound like Scott was done there when he said washed. It threw me off. I'm rusty. I am rusty.

You are rusty. You don't know my speaking patterns. Forgotten. All, we got some news and notes to get to. We'll get to that in just one second. Stay tuned. All right, news and notes starts with Manny Machado. Padre is reportedly interested.

to Mani Machado, and the Padres could be interested in J.T. Rayamuto. I don't want to speculate. We'll see where he ends up. But Machado has been a lot better at home than on the road in his career. The Reds making progress on Rayamuto deal, according to John Heyman. And guys, Rayamuto, Muto, now last year is great, both home and on the road. But in his career, he's had, like, Yelich-like splits where so good. I would say even more, bigger than Yelich. Yeah, so I know, Scott, you already have Ray-Lam-Rae. Muto ahead of Gary Sanchez. If he goes to the Reds, Heath, would you move Reamuto ahead of Gary Sanchez?

Yeah, I think I would. If he goes to the Padres, I definitely would not. That doesn't mean to make any sense for the Padres to do that. I don't even know why they're considering it. But the Reds, yeah, that might be one team where I would. Yeah, pretty interesting. Kenley Jansen threw off a mound for the first time since having heart surgery. He's lost weight.

He says he feels good. and what's your level of confidence in Kenley Jansen? I would just say be prepared for April Kenley Jansen to not be throwing very hard and concerns about his velocity because I read something a couple days ago and he was talking about how he thought one of the problems last year was he got too concerned with his velocity early in the year and not as concerned about his pitch location and so he's not going to worry about how quickly he ramps up velocity this year.

Okay, he's fifth. for Scott, he's sixth for Heath, which is much lower than we're used to seeing Kenley Jansen. Houston could be interested in resigning Dallas Keiko and Marvin Gonzalez. Texas manager Chris Woodward named Jose LeClerc, the closer, which will give us plenty of good My Cousin Vinny Jokes. LeClerc was outstanding last year. 156 ERA, 853st 35 strikeouts in 57 and 2 thirds. 0.85 whip just has to keep the walks down.

Nick Castellanos could be traded. Seems like he will be traded. And then tell me if you care about this. Oakland signing Marco Estrada to a one-year $4 million deal. It's hard to make me care about that. I didn't like Marco Estrada when he was pretending like he was good. The Dodgers won't platoon A.J. Pollock, by all indications. Make a trade. Make a trade. Make a trade.

I just want to know about Max Muncie. Corey Seeger, not guaranteeing he'll be ready for opening day. Can Max Muncie play shortstop? Jimmy Nelson says he will not have any physical limitations in spring training. He is full go. Jimmy Nelson. We'll see if the stuff is. Quit Merrifield.

Dude, who is his agent? Four years, just over 16 million. What? Here's what you don't. Okay, they bought out his arbitration. years, right? Is that what you're going to say? He will be a free agent the same year he would have been a free agent.

He's not even eligible for arbitration yet. You don't think he would have made more in arbitration? Here's what I'm saying. This year he was, I believe, going to make the Major League minimum. He's eligible for arbitration the first time next year. Then he has three more years of arbitration. None of

those are guaranteed. This is a guy who's 30 years old. Four million dollars a year. He's never signed a major league contract, never made a million dollars in a season. Yeah, because his agent sucks. He's guaranteed himself $16 million. This is smart for Whitmeryfield.

Pete, have you seen inflation these days? What do you get for $16 million? Come on. Ryan Braun is changing his swing. He's getting all... He's getting all nerdy. Ryan Brahma. Yeah, Marco Estrada and Whitmerichield

have the same annual salary. No, which is only making $1 million this year? Oh, okay. That's actually an interesting note about Ryan Braun. because one of the reasons I feel like the decline came so soon for him is because he was a guy who always relied

on having an elite home run to fly ball rate. He didn't hit a ton of fly balls for the kind of power hitter he was. I assume he's going fly ball revolution changing a swing. Yeah. I don't know.

You found the note. I think so. Yeah. He's going to hit more fly balls. Ryan Braun. Okay. Ryan Braun or Josh Donaldson, who do you take first? Donaldson.

Donaldson. I mean, Braun still has the issue of bad back, never going to play every day. Okay, so Ryan Braun or Miguel Cabrera? I'll go Cabrera. Me too. Okay. Ryan Braun went 195th in this draft, so way down. Dee Gordon went 198th.

It is a points league. Let's read a couple of emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI. From Chris S in Austin, team name Tuesday. Dear Dante, Dante, and Bo, this is the best possible team name for 2019. Sons of Bichettes. It's pretty good. It's pretty good, yeah.

Yeah, yeah. It's the best team name I've heard so far in 2019. Yeah, you know, I've made a few way to go. Yeah. First team name I've heard in 2019. Right. Because you've heard Bichette turned into

You know If you're turning it into a vulgarity There seems to be a clearer one Clear direction you could go Then that one That's pretty good Really? But yeah what?

Yeah. Well like Bichette happened Oh Bichette happens That's good Scott White I like sons of Bichette's better though Okay

You're allowed Email the day number two is from Dan Subject Lined One of you makes me lose Dear Sophia, Blanche, Rose, and Dorothy Thank you for being a friend. In 2014, I won my CBS League, and then I started to listen to your podcast regularly in 2015 or 16.

Since then, I've finished 7th and 11th the past two years. Each of you please state your own reasons why I should continue to listen to your filthy mouths when considering rankings, who to start, pick up, etc. If one of your answers happens to be something involving me being invited to one of the podcast leagues, you're allowed to use that as reasoning and not have to say anything else. Scott, why don't you make your case?

It doesn't sound like you're going to be much competition for the podcast lead. And you listen to us and that's still the best you could do? I'm starting with the man in the mirror, Dan. Oh, wow. Okay, so that's Scott's reason. Scott is saying that you're... I don't have to justify myself. You're the problem.

He's saying he doesn't have to say it. And I'm saying, I don't give any advice. Well, I do, but, you know, nobody listens to. it. So it's on you, Dan. I will reach your keeper question, though. Pueg, Conforto, or Paraza. Same price. Five-by-five OBP League. Pueg, Conforto, or Paraza. I was leaning Conforto, and then you said OBP League. I think that clenches it. Michael Conforto. I understand Twy Conforto, and you'll want to keep Conforto longer. I've got a feeling.

then this this could be like what we've been waiting for from Yassiel Pueig. So who do you rank? You rank Pueke higher? I think I have them back to back. I'm going to look right now. That's funny. I really, I messed up.

In Roto, I have Pueg and Conforto back to back. Oh, how about that? Okay, yeah. So Chris mentioned this on a previous show. I hate the fact that Chile Davis is the Mets hitting coach. God, what a bad track record Chile Davis has. So just say it. Well, his last three stops are the Red Sox Cubs and now Mets, right?

I don't know, but those teams have been pretty good. Not with Chile Davis. I mean, so, well, okay, so Chile Davis, 2017 was with the Red Sox. That was their terrible year. 2018 was with the Cubs, terrible year, and now he's going to the Mets. But he also was with the Red Sox 2015 and 16. The Mets would take the 2017 Red Sox season or the 2018. They don't have the same players, you know.

I don't remember hearing anything bad about him until he went to the Cubs. And it may have been... The Cubs won 95 games last year. They hit like crap. Yeah, they didn't hit as well as the show. They're best players anyway. Bryant, Rizzo. And it may have been more of a personality clash thing.

No, it's a philosophy thing. Well, Brian was huge. No, it doesn't sound like Chili Davis's philosophy. Is it bad? Well, it doesn't sound like it seems a little outdated. It does. But at the same time, he doesn't, like, how much authority does a hitting coach really have? Like, isn't it to some degree on the player to know what to just ignore?

If you're saying, hey, if you're the hitting coach, you're saying, hey, our approach is going to be, let's go opposite field and not, you know. What happens? What happens if Chris Bryant doesn't? Is he getting benched? I don't know, but he's being a nice guy. Let's give him credit for listening to his coach, Scott, Coach Killer. I'm just, the Cubs, I don't think they were that bad last year. Well, but Brian and Rizzo took a step back for sure.

Wilson Contreras, I mean, like the three hitters we were most excited about in fantasy, their power was sapped. Okay. I mean, they haven't had nice things to say about him since he left, right? They were They were the number 11 offense in Team Wobah. Yeah, that's not very good. Could be better than that.

They could have been. Heath, I was going to do two of your categories today. Maybe we'll do one. So let's just do one. Maybe we'll do one. Well, you know, we can do three tomorrow. The old guys took a while. Let's start with home runs and see where we get, Heath.

You're always pretty quick. I'd rather do strikeouts. All right, let's do strikeouts. He has a sleeper, a breakout, a bust. in the strikeout categories or category, strikeouts category, that's what I meant to say. Here's the thing that I noticed about strikeouts when I was looking at last year.

There were 18 guys that struck out 200 hitters. This is pitchers striking out hitters, by the way. Yes. Go on. That's why I said struck out 200. It's not a huge drop off. There's like another 10 or 12 that struck out at least 180. but there was a huge difference in the performance

in the other categories of the guys that were over 200 and the guys that fell just short. The guys that fell just short were mostly a bunch of guys that weren't actually that good last year. Okay. And it kind of led me to look at how many pitchers were good in all four of the non-saves categories. And it was almost all of those guys that had 200 strikeouts.

So who's your sleeper? This is this year. It's John Gray, who wasn't very good last year, and it's a couple of things. One, he was a little bit unlucky. He gave up a ton of home runs. He gave up too much hard contact. Part of that was because he wasn't locating his pitches as well. I read an article on MLB.com about his offseason.

He has trouble eating on game day. He lost like 30 pounds during the season last year because they couldn't find anything for him to eat on game day. What? He's got a new nutritionist. He's working on that. He spent the offseason working on his leg strength because he's having a hard time on his landing on his ankle that he had the injury on 2017. And in January, he visited driveline baseball, which is now like the fix-all for all pitchers. And he wasn't that bad last year.

He still struck out more than a batter per inning and still had good control. I think it's a bounce back year for John Gray. And I think there's a pretty decent chance he's the best pitcher on the Rockies. 512 ERA. Just want to see the splits here. Pretty similar home and road. And that's always been the case with him, you know, and I like that because he's not a guy that can't pitch at Corrus Field.

He certainly can. He was actually a little bit better at Corr's Field last year. All right, so John Gray, he's a sleeper in general, I'm sure. But he's a strikeout sleeper for sure. A strikeout breakout breakout. Who you got? It's Jack Flaherty. You know Jack Flaherty actually struck out like 225 hitters last year?

It's just five starts came in AAA. I didn't know that. If he had just made 33 starts, we'd probably already view him as a top 15 starting pitcher. Really, the only thing it was went wrong for him was he had those minor league starts, and he had some pretty terrible win-loss luck at 8 and 9. If he pitches just like he did last year and stays healthy, he's a top 15 starting pitcher. I've still got him ranked too low, and I just am really struggling with which of these guys I'm supposed to move him above. But I think he should definitely jump into that 200 strikeout category.

He's got a good shot at 225, 230, and he's got a good shot at being a top 12 starting pitcher. All right, that's Jack Flaherty. I remember I feel like at one point in the season, it was the debate. Who do you like better going forward or next year? Jack Flaherty or Walker Bueller. And now it doesn't really seem like much of a debate, right?

Like everybody's got Bueller. Bueller was just ridiculous over the last couple months of the season. Right. So he sure was. Then he slammed the door on that debate. But at the time we were having the debate, I was saying, Flaherty. I've got Flaherty one spot behind Bueller right now. Yeah.

All right. So John Gray, Sleeper, Jack Flaherty breakout. And who is your strikeouts bust for 2019? J-Hap. There's a couple of reasons. One, and this is, I think, pretty consistent with what I've said for four years. years since I first came to CBS. If a guy has a massive

improvement in a skill in their mid-30s, I'm probably not going to believe that that's going to stick. Jahap has never struck out more than a batter per inning, and he did last year. And he did it with the lowest swinging strike rate other than Rick, whether there was one other guy, I don't think it was Porcelo.

It was one other guy that had a strikeout rate as high as he did. He's not a strikeout pitcher. He's not going to be as good as he was last year. But he was 8.8 in 2017. Is that realistic for J-Hap, you think? Yeah, I think that's possible. Take away a strikeout per inning.

Does that make him a strikeout pitcher at 8.8 or no? No. That makes him about average now. Okay. Scott, anything to say about John Gray, Jack Flaherty, or J-Hap? They all start with letter J. Shouldn't you have picked three guys to start with the letter K? for strikeouts?

Close enough. That's not how it works, Adam. They're back to back to the alphabet. Anything to say about these guys, Scott White? Nope, that all sounds fine to me. I may not be as much of a downer on half, but I certainly see the bus potential. All right, let's read some emails to end the show

at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We're coming back tomorrow morning with our second of three podcasts this week. Our third is scheduled for Friday. This is from Big Twork. It says, hey, booze, like B-O-O-O-S, not Z-E. Please give three good reasons why my league should do batting average over on-base percentage. I don't believe your league should do it,

but if I had to come up with three reasons, the very first reason would be almost all categories' rankings are based on batting average and not on base percentage. percentage. So it's easier to study. I'll give you three reasons. Reason one. Walks are lame.

Reason two. Swing the bat. Reason three, it's harder to get hits than draw walks. Yeah, I think you should, if, like, if you're trying to put up, put together a league that values the things that are important in baseball, you should definitely use on base percentage instead of betting average. Yeah, I can't argue with that. I mean, I am kind of a traditionalist as far as this goes.

I just like familiar things that inspire joy, which traditional Roto does in me. But if that, you know, if there's no nostalgia factor for you there, then OPP is certainly more reflective of ability. Yeah, walks are lame. You should swing the bat and it's harder to get hits than draw walks. And all that said, I'd rather have OVP than batting average. But I guess, you know, batting average is a real skill now. I mean, so is OBP. But maybe it's like... OBP is a more valuable skill, I guess.

Batting average is a skill. I don't know that I agree with that. Just because walks are so high now, right? I mean, walks are so easy to get at this point. If you get on base more, it's more valuable than if you get on base less. It doesn't really matter how. Okay, but it's not like a guy who has a high batting average has zero walks, you know? part of OBP is batting average

and putting the ball in play is more valuable than just drawing a walk for many reasons. Right, but if you're taking, you'd rather, the more valuable player is the one who gets on base more. If it's mostly batting average, fine. But, you know, there are plenty of players who get on base and hit for lower averages

and vice versa. Oh, okay, who's a more valuable player? 300 hitter, 350 on base, 500 slugging or 280 hitter 370 on base or 380 on base 450 slugging

probably the 380 on base guy no way although you've introduced slugging into the equation which yeah it's a guy but I still think it's the on base guy no way I think it's probably it's probably probably the slugging guy

yeah of course it's the slugging guy I mean 30% difference in on base percentage is enormous 50% 30 points not 30% To make this fair, you should make the difference in slugging the same as the difference in on base. Okay, fine. Well, then we're just to say that it's the same OPS. Which I think has been proven to be.

That's a good question. No, that's a great one. So you have guys with the same OPS, but different, but one guy has 30 more OBP points and one guy has 30 more slugging points. I will definitely take the slugging guy. He's going to hit more home runs. The math has been done on this I couldn't recreate the math for you But the math showed it

The on-base percentage is more important But wouldn't the guy with the higher slugging Have more total basis? Yes So how is that not more valuable? There's not a total basis on the scoreboard Yeah, but that's obviously going to create runs Well, because you're avoiding outs

Which is the You only get 27 of those in a game Yeah, but you have to score runs to win Home runs, score runs. If you don't make outs, you get longer to score those runs. I don't know. I think baseball's a job. Ryan and St. Louis, in a Keeper Auction League, I have Cluber.

I was offered Bryce Harper for him. They're the same price. Would you give up Cluber for Harper? Yes. I would too. Especially in a Keeper League. From Pete. Keeper question, 10 team points league.

I can keep two in two rounds before I took them last year. So I'm keeping Blake Snell for a 10th round pick. Here are my other options. One of these three. Bregman in the fourth, Albee's in the 14th, Miles Michaelis in the 20th. Gregman.

I think I would go Bregman as well. Jeff, yeah, sorry. No, I would go Bregman. The discount is obviously smaller, but pretty much if you're getting a stud at any kind of discount, it's more valuable than anything else. Jeff and Iowa, I desperately want to compete this year in fantasy baseball.

I've been listening to your podcast, but other than that, what is the single most important thing I can do to prepare for the season? Are there books or articles you recommend reading other podcasts, other options I haven't considered? Definitely not other podcasts, Jeff. No way. Go to our draft print page. Scott's got like four billion articles. I've got a couple as well. Definitely, yes.

go to our draft prep page, read Scott's tiers. If you're playing Rodo, read about my categories, read our sleepers breakouts and busts. We're going to have a ton of content. Chris is writing like 5,000 words about every player in baseball or something.

It's, yes. I feel really good about the tears this year, by the way. After a couple years where I felt like they were all kind of merging together and there weren't as clear of divisions within positions, I think the tears are going to be very useful this year.

Position scarcity seems to be making a little bit of a comeback, and that's what tiers are best at helping exploit. Ryan in Oklahoma with our last question, 10-team 5-5-Roto Keeper League, O-B-P instead of average. We can keep six players. Their cost increases by one round per year. So, again, 5-5-O-B-P league.

Would you rather have Francisco Lindor in the 22nd round or Juan Soto in the 25th round? Lindor. Lindor, for sure. I mean, three-round difference, that latent draft is basically nothing, and Lindorr is, you know, you might go as early as third overall in some drafts. But, how about this? I'm looking at his other keepers.

Would you rather have Soto in the 25th or Ozzy Albee's in the 24th? Soda. Yeah, so do that. Bye, guys. Oh, yeah. Way, way more. Yeah, why did he? Alby, I'm using Albies. He's terrible.

Gosh. Hey, it's good to be back. I mean, there's nothing wrong with keeping Albies in round 24, but Soto on 25 is better. Thanks for putting up with me for an hour, everybody. Scott and Heath, great job in January. I appreciate it while I was gone. Scott gets the intro our next few shows,

and get excited for that. But maybe you can outro the shows, because I still don't know how to do that. Bye, everybody.