Fantasy Baseball Today - 01/29: Roto Mock Draft Review! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: January 29, 2020

Scott White and Chris Towers do their first mock draft review of the year, focusing on the first 12 rounds of a recent industry experts Roto mock draft. How should you handle the 12th pick in a 12 -te...am draft — should you go hitter/hitter, hitter/pitcher, or pitcher/pitcher? (2:15) ... Then Scott and Chris break down their teams’ strengths and weaknesses (17:50) ... And give their thoughts on the first dozen rounds of the draft, focusing on their favorite and least favorite picks. (30:30) Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball pulled and passed. Alborizzo, and twilight. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Where fantasy becomes reality. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath, and Chris.
Starting point is 00:00:25 We're back on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. This is Chris Towers, joined by Scott White. and we're going to be going over a recent rotissory 12-team mock draft that we did. Scott, are you excited to finally be talking about mock drafts, to finally be drafting, you know, regularly. We're doing multiple drafts every week. We did three last week, kind of. Yeah, yeah, and yeah, we're going to be mock draft out by the time March gets here. Let me tell you, but there will still be more to do even at that point.
Starting point is 00:00:56 Yeah, I'm excited about this. This is, we did a couple of mock drafts early in the office. off-season, but I think this is the first one we're actually breaking down on the podcast. Yes. And, you know, usually I can, usually after a mock draft, I either really like my team or I don't like it, but I can see why I did it. And I feel like there's certainly a chance for it to go right. This one I just hate.
Starting point is 00:01:23 I just hate my team. I just, I feel like my approach was clearly wrong. And I amended it in the following mock draft. that I'm sure we'll get to breaking down at some point. But today we're going to talk about an approach that I don't think was right. Yeah, a 12-team 5-by-5 rotisserie mock draft. We're going to get to that shortly. But since we didn't get to any emails yesterday,
Starting point is 00:01:44 I do want to make sure that we get to emails today. And so with that we're going to start off with the email of the day. And this one's from Matthew. And since we're talking about a mock draft, I figured it would make sense to go with a draft-related question, and a draft strategy question. So Matthew writes in, and if you want your email around on the show,
Starting point is 00:02:04 Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the place to send them. Matthew writes in, I'm picking 12th in a 12-person, 6-6-Roto League, and he's leaning towards starting the draft with a Juan Soto, Nolan Aeronado. So he's trying to decide between three combinations. Juan Soto and Nolan Aronado, Trey Turner and Max Scherzer,
Starting point is 00:02:26 or Justin Verlander and Max Scher with the first two picks. which of those trios would you prefer? Once again, Juan Soto, Nolan Aronado, so tons of power, great average, no stolen bases. Trey Turner or Max Scherzer gets you your stolen base guy, gets you your ace, but you're going to have to make up for the run production coming back around, or two aces, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer with a combined age of about 187 years old. So which of those trios do you prefer, Scott? Well, prior to this mock draft, I probably would have said Juan Soto and Nolan Arodado, but one of the changes I'm making after having experienced, my second experience, I guess, drafting for Roto in this player pool.
Starting point is 00:03:13 I'm going with Trey Turner and Max Scherzer. I'm going with where I think the skills scarcity is, and that's stolen bases in high and starting pitching and confident the run production. be able to fill in later. So here's one thing I would say about that is often you can find value in drafts, especially in a snake draft by pivoting to where the rest of your drafters are not going. And everyone is going to be drafting steals and starting pitchers early. Like that's that's what the industry has decided. You know, a lot of the drafts I've done, I've seen four starting pitchers going the first round.
Starting point is 00:03:55 I've seen three or four more going the first in the in the next round, maybe even more, which is not something that we're necessarily used to. We'll also see, you know, stolen base guys really get pushed up. And so that's the only thing is it's when you're drafting the same way everyone else is, one of the issues with that is you just have to be better at drafting that way than everyone else to succeed. So that I'm not saying you're wrong. I think you're overstating and you're not doing it, you know, to be manipulative. It's just.
Starting point is 00:04:32 No, I am. I'm a very, I'm a deeply manipulative person, Scott. It's just, you know, the common way of saying these things. Everybody is drafting that way. Everybody is not drafting that way. There will be some other people in your league that are also drafting that way, but it won't be everybody. And because of, and I think you need to be one of the people that is doing that because. unless the whole landscape changes.
Starting point is 00:04:58 What? Well, now everyone's going to be drafting that way. Come on. People don't listen to me. What do you talk about? Unless the whole landscape changes, it's just really hard to gain a true advantage at a position, at a hitter position, just to look at your lineup, what you have at each spot,
Starting point is 00:05:21 and look at somebody else's lineup at what they have. have at every spot and say, okay, this one is clearly better than that one. This one may have invested more in it than that one, but in terms of actual expected contributions, it's just not that big of a gap between the elites at hitter and the next rung of the hitter ladder, at least when you're excluding stolen bases from the conversation. And to illustrate your point, we'll go through a lot more of this with the rotomoc, but when you look at ADP, Let's say you go Trey Turner and Max Scherzer, or let's say you even go Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer
Starting point is 00:05:59 at that 12-13. Coming back around 36-37, some guys who are available, the best pitcher is Blake Snell or Patrick Corbyn. The best hitters are Charlie Blackman, Jordan Alvarez, George Springer, and even Adelberto Montesey if you wanted to go Trey Turner. Those guys can all do, like they're not the real thing,
Starting point is 00:06:23 But they're a very convincing, uh, interpretation of what those guys can do. Like, Jordan Alvarez could just be Juan Soto this year. Mm-hmm. Whereas it's-hmm. Charlie Blackman could be, uh, J.D. Martinez. I mean, or, I mean, Charlie Blackman, I see Charlie Blackman as a first round caliber hitter who's often available in round four. And I feel like, even going into round five, you see a lot of those guys.
Starting point is 00:06:53 And the thing is, even beyond that, I mean, Josh Donaldson, who was a clear must-start top-10, I think in both formats, third baseman, is my 15th ranked third baseman. He might not go until we get to the double-digit rounds, you know? And it's just like, is he that much worse than Chris Bryant? No.
Starting point is 00:07:20 No, not the version of his age. Yeah, not the version of Chris Bryant we've seen since the MVP season especially. Yeah, yeah. Chris Bryant may have more upside, but in terms of expected outcome, is it really that different? No, it's not. And then when you consider also, okay, so let's say it does go wrong for J.D. Martinez, what do you have to fall back on? Well, I mean, we're coming off a year where so many hitters who weren't even on anybody's radar
Starting point is 00:07:53 went on to have very productive must-start-type seasons. I mean, Tommy Lestella when he was healthy, Gio Orchella became that, guys who were just... No more names that rhyme with those two, but there were other guys. Yeah, no, there are definitely other guys. I mean, Jorge Soler was this to an extent. I think he was drafted late, and probably in five outfielder leagues last year, but he wasn't some like universal everybody has to have him kind of guy. Austin Meadows was at best a late rounder.
Starting point is 00:08:23 And like the lists could go on forever. Antonio Sensitella. Yeah. Keone Kella. Sensitella. Those are the only guys that rhyme with timeless. You didn't pick up on it, I guess. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:08:38 You're going with the rhyme thing still. Yeah. Yeah. I got to beat it until it, until it dies. Yeah. All right. Let's move on to some news and notes. We've got a regulators.
Starting point is 00:08:49 question before we get to the mock draft as well. That's exciting. And hopefully, I'll be able to do the music just like Adam Azer because I'm in a professional podcast studio and I am a professional. But first, the news and notes, Chris Bryant lost his grievance. The Cubs have his, have control over him for the next two seasons instead of the one that he was asking for, which not surprising. Teams win these grievances all the time. That's how this thing works. But in the immediate aftermath of that, there were a lot of reporters noting that this makes it easier and more likely perhaps that the Cubs will trade Chris Bryant. So we still have, um, you know, Chris Bryant and Mookie Betts, especially as potential
Starting point is 00:09:30 superstars who could get traded. Yeah. We're getting pretty close to the start of spring training here. So I'm not optimistic any of them will. Maybe at some point the season, like maybe deadline deals if these teams are out of it. But I'm not, I'm not really counting on a, any of the big names out there being traded. Starling Marte, I was surprised he was still able to get traded this late in the offseason. But that's a case where last year, or is there two years, I guess he has two years the contract left. But the Pirates clearly not playing for anything this year. Their payroll is the lowest in baseball by about $8 million right now.
Starting point is 00:10:09 Yeah. They had really nothing to gain by holding on to Starling Marte, especially considering he was coming off, in my mind, a career year. So you could understand that a little better than you could understand Brian or Betts or Aeronado I mean I guess Aeronado has the whole discontent very public discontentment thing happening But even him I'm not I'm not counting on him getting traded All right Luis Aureus had surgery to repair a fractured hamlet bone in his left hand
Starting point is 00:10:39 expected to miss six to eight weeks So he could be ready for the start of the season There was you know the hope that he would be the starting second baseman for the second baseman, right now? Shortstop. Kestine Hero would be the starting second basement. Yes, yes. If, yeah, that was the only, shortstop was the only place where EREAS was going to have a chance of making the opening day lineup. And I still kind of feel like it was a long shot.
Starting point is 00:11:04 I really like him. I mentioned that on yesterday's podcast. I love what he's done at AAA. You look at his production at AAA. He's still only 22. His production at AAA wasn't that dissimilar to what, Hero was doing last year. He was really crushing the ball.
Starting point is 00:11:20 Yes, it was the PCL, but he has always hit well at AAA, and then he's gotten to the majors and hasn't really been able to make contact, but he's still so young and the pedigree is still there that I was really looking forward to buying him as a sleeper in pretty much all my drafts. And now, you know, because of this, I'm not sure if we might,
Starting point is 00:11:40 it's possible that we can overstate the impact of the fractured hamlet bone injury and surgery because I did some research last night and there have been some studies that have shown there were no year one or year two effects of guys coming back from that surgery now I don't know if that's definitive because the you know my prior on the hamlet bone injury has always been that you eventually get your power back but it's you know it can take a month or two we did see Matt Olson come back right away and crush the ball last year so that's one point in the favor, but I haven't seen anything on like the first month or two back. But what it does do is,
Starting point is 00:12:21 you know, a 22 year old who's struggling the majors, good prospect pedigree, but not guaranteed a spot. Now he's going to miss most of spring training. That's really where it hurts him. And so probably off the- Yeah, he'll have to prove himself in the minors first. Yeah, deep sleeper now. Yeah. Yep. The all we have left are some small moves. The Royal signed Greg Holland to a minor league deal and the Cubs re-signed David Feld. after turning down his option early in the off-season. So, you know, the Cubs have finally decided to join the rest of baseball
Starting point is 00:12:54 in making moves this off-season. So that's exciting. Not really. And we've got, are you ready, Scott? Yes. First regulators in a while, I feel like. So we've got a regulator segment right now. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:15 Should I do the uh? like Adam does? I think you do your own thing. Although I feel like you kind of telegraphed that so hard when Adam just kind of like creeps up on you with Adam. You hear that music and you're like, oh, I know what time it is now. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:13:33 You love to see it. Regulators, all right. Brendan in Atlanta writes in. Should I leave the music going? I already turned it off. I'm not as good as Adam at this, as you've already said. high bail slater and yellich so in my league last season someone dropped christianelich during our playoffs because the brewers didn't move yelich to the iL instead of leaving him as day to day since
Starting point is 00:13:56 mlb rosters went to 40 man we see this all the time in september with injuries there's not really any reason to put guys on the on the iL unless you're doing it with a 40 with a 60 day brandon was a playoff team saw this picked up yelich and now wants to use him as one of his keep He gets two keepers each year. One of the non-playoff teams is arguing that it's unfair to keep Yelich because not all teams are active during the playoffs. My argument is that while not all teams are active, the season is still going on,
Starting point is 00:14:25 and I claimed him as the ninth out of 12 potential way of response. So other teams had a legit chance. Additionally, our league did not have a rule in place saying the keeper-eligible roster is locked at the end of the season. We have now implemented that as a role to make this guy happy. But what should be done? Should I get to keep Yelich, or is that totally unfair? Thanks for the help, guys.
Starting point is 00:14:43 Love the show. Brendan in Atlanta. What do you think, Scott? I think if there wasn't a rule against it, you should be allowed to do it. I don't know why the guy dropped Yelich. He didn't want to keep Yelich. He needed a roster spot.
Starting point is 00:15:06 I've been in that situation. So bad that he was willing to not keep Yelich? Maybe. I don't know. Maybe it was a situation where he couldn't keep him for whatever reason. His eligibility had dried up. He was a first round pick and you can't keep first round or something like that.
Starting point is 00:15:21 I'm going to football league. He's still got to consider the collateral damage of dropping yellow. Yeah. If there wasn't a rule on the book, surely this is not the first guy who was ever picked up as a keeper after somebody else dropped him. Certainly that's not the first time this has ever happened in this league. I guess it, I guess it might have been a case where, well, I don't even know about that. Let's just go on to the next one.
Starting point is 00:15:50 That's the only regulator's question, Scott. That's why I brought the music up because we're closing out the segment. Okay, I heard the music go back on again. I thought it was coming back. I thought you were hurrying me off the stage, like at the Academy Awards. No, no, no, no. This is like the Grammys last weekend. We can just go as long as we want.
Starting point is 00:16:07 All right. We got a mock draft to break down. We do have a mock draft to break down. Thanks so much for sending in your email. Brendan, you've been regulated. All right, let's go on. that mock draft that we've been talking about. You can find the results of this mock draft if you want to follow along.
Starting point is 00:16:24 At CBS Sports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. It's a 12-team rotissory mock draft dominated by steals and starting pitcher earlier. We'll tweet it out at CBS Scott White. At CBS Scott White, at C-Tower, CBS, if you want to follow along. And this was a 12-team rhodo mock draft. Scott and I picked 11th and 12th. Scott, you were 11th, I was 12th, so we were right back and forth.
Starting point is 00:16:51 And actually, interestingly enough, we had that email earlier. I took Max Scher and Trey Turner at the 1213 turn. So we'll see what that team looks like. But here's who was invited and participated in this draft. Jorge Montanis from fan tracks, Adam Azer from CBS Sports, Phil Penebchek, from patenting company, Frank Stample from Fantasy BFFs, Matt Williams from the Turn 2 podcast Mike Curlin from fan tracks
Starting point is 00:17:20 Andrew McClintock from Fantasy Front Office Heath Cummings, you know him George Maselli, editor for CBS Sports Fantasy Tim McLeod Prospects 361 and of course Scott White and Chris Towers and Scott let's start by taking a look
Starting point is 00:17:36 at your team because this is it's not a team that you like it's not a team that I like and this is a two catcher Middle infield, corner infield, five outfield, utility, and the nine pitcher spots.
Starting point is 00:17:51 Standard, Roto, let's hear your roster. Okay, so my catchers are Wilson Contreras and Travis Darnow. Okay. You know, nothing to complain about there. Freddie Freeman's my first basement. Can't complain there. DJ Lemay, he's second basement. That's fine.
Starting point is 00:18:07 Eduardo Escobar, third baseman. Also fine. Not one of the, not one of the clearly I waited until a later tier to fill that position but Escobar had what did he have last year
Starting point is 00:18:24 30 35 homers and 118 RPI so it's not like anybody really has a problem with him as their starter at the position uh Zander Bogart's is my shortstop Marcus Simeon middle infielder Josh Bell corner infielder
Starting point is 00:18:39 uh outfield is Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, J.D. Davis, Aristides Aquino. This happened before the Nicholas Castiana signing. Sam Hilliards. And then Yuleiguriel is my utility player. So it's not like you look at my hitting and, okay, there's a bunch of holes there.
Starting point is 00:19:03 Maybe outfield, I'm taking outfield some chances on some less established guys. But it's not like, wow. Look at all those positions where he has a problem coming out of this draft. The problem is in a 12-team league, I don't think you're going to look at much of anybody's roster and feel that way. The problem for me is where do I fall short in terms of the categories? And I basically punted on steel, see. I'm not going to get zero, obviously. Simeon will give me a dozen or so.
Starting point is 00:19:40 Sam Hilliard and Aquino if he plays are going to contribute some in that category, but I'm projected to come in last in steals, and I should because I didn't draft a single base dealer. This wasn't necessarily my intention. I was not willing to extend to myself as far as everybody else for stolen bases, and I've been kind of dismissive of the way the industry as a whole has been approaching base dealers this year, I've been kind of looking down on them for going so hard after stolen bases.
Starting point is 00:20:15 But I got left out because of that. And it's a problem. It's a problem. And what makes it a problem is my pitching staff. So here it is. Justin Verlander, Patrick Corbyn. Those were two of my first four picks. Obviously, both of them are good.
Starting point is 00:20:35 third is Junjin Ryu fourth is Kyle Hendricks fifth Dallas Keikle six Carlos Martinez and then
Starting point is 00:20:46 the closers are Ken Giles Mark Malanson and Scott Oberg yeah I think it's a fine pitching staff it's fine
Starting point is 00:20:56 the thing that that strikes me about the pitching staff you know especially because the offense isn't great it's good but you punt it on steel so that kind of
Starting point is 00:21:05 drags the whole thing down, but... Yep. It's 2020, and you only have two guys who will probably get 200 strikeouts. Yeah. That, yeah. You're probably... I would guess you're projected to finish pretty close to the bottom in strikeouts. I am.
Starting point is 00:21:18 And that's tough. That, that to me, you know, not to be too critical, because I'm sure my team has holes of its own, but that to me, like, if you're going to punt on stolen bases, the whole point of that is you're going to be great everywhere else. And I don't, you didn't land that with this. Because I didn't go hard enough after pitching. Yeah. Ultimately is what it comes down to.
Starting point is 00:21:40 I invested two of my first four picks in it. And I thought, okay, I got a really nice head start here. I'm going to relax on that for a while and start grabbing up these hitter values, which, you know, I feel like in terms of just hitting for average, hitting for power, driving, and runs, my hitting is pretty strong. But there are so many guys out there that can do that. And it would just round after round, I said, how could this guy still be here? I have to take him. How could this guy still be here?
Starting point is 00:22:08 I have to take him. And then soon enough, I look up, and the best pitcher available is Hyun Jin Ryu. He becomes my third guy. And it's just not good enough to make up for, to make up for a, you know, in the hitting category is the fact that I've basically punted on one. It's not good enough.
Starting point is 00:22:27 And the thing is, it could, beyond just, Okay, already I haven't given myself a chance of competing in certain categories, just right off the bat. If anything goes wrong with Verlander or Corbyn, I'm pretty much screwed. And things could certainly go wrong. Things could go wrong for any starting pitcher. But especially, you know, a 37-year-old like Verlander. If something goes wrong for Ryu even, and certainly he is an extensive injury history, then I'm in trouble. So it's, it was, my takeaways from this draft were twofold.
Starting point is 00:23:08 One, I have to give in and prioritize steals a little more early, especially from the guys that are high-end bats. I should have at the round one to turn, you mentioned your first two picks were Max Scherzer and Trey Turner. My first round pick was Justin Verlander. My first round pick should have been Trey Turner. If you can get a high-end hitter who is going to contribute in stolen bases
Starting point is 00:23:32 in this format, you absolutely should. And my second takeaway is that I shouldn't have relaxed at starting pitcher. I should have trusted that the hitters that would still be on the board, I should have trusted that there would still be quality hitters on the board since I ended up overkilling it
Starting point is 00:23:50 and like the home run in RBI categories and grab the starting pitchers even though it felt wrong, even though it felt unnatural to pass up these high-end titters just because of my experience, playing fantasy, and just feeling like it's a great value,
Starting point is 00:24:09 I should have just held my nose and drafted the pitchers because once they're gone, they're gone. And what you're left with is some pretty uninspiring choices. Yeah, and, you know, we'll move on to my team and, you know, I actually have some of the same deficiencies that you do in looking at it. You know, I only have one, maybe two real 200 strikeout guys, a couple guys with, you know, perhaps more potential. And then, you know, the projections don't love my stolen base numbers.
Starting point is 00:24:50 I'll say, I think there's probably more upside there, but we'll go through it. My catchers are Buster Posey and Stephen Vote. I've been either, you know, I'm willing to take Gary Sanchez, Gizmani Grondal, J.T. Real Muto, if they go to the right place. But otherwise, I'm fine with waiting at catcher. You know, I think there's a decent opportunity for Buster Posey to mounts back. I actually like Stephen Vote as a number two catcher. You look at what he did last year in San Francisco.
Starting point is 00:25:18 And I think there's potential, especially because Arizona just hasn't shown that want to just rely on one guy at catcher over the last few years. We'll see if that changes with Carson Kelly with a year under his belt, but I'm fine with that. Anthony Rizzo at first base, Gattelmarte, at second base, Vladimir Guerrero at third base, Trey Turner at shortstop, and Corey Seeger and Justin Turner at the middle infield and corner infield positions. I'm really happy with those infield options. I think there's a lot of, you know, upside with Vladimir Guerrero and Trey Turner.
Starting point is 00:25:52 I'm really high on Corey Seeger this year at where you can draft him. And, you know, let me see where he went. Because it was, yeah, 133rd overall. I'm thrilled with the potential opportunity to take it. I think it's really hard to come out of a draft. Even a roto draft with the two extra infield spots, feeling like you don't have a good infield. Yeah, but mine's especially good, Scott.
Starting point is 00:26:19 No need to do the backhanded compliment. And then my outfield, you know, again, we both actually in this draft got bit by the Nick Castiano signing because I took Nick Senzel. I've also got Joe Adele. Now, this is a draft where we didn't have a bench spot, but I wanted to take Joe Adele. We didn't draft benches. In a normal league, I would draft an outfielder who can start for at least that first month or two where Joe Adele probably won't be in the majors. You'll have to draft Odell as a starter. Yes.
Starting point is 00:26:46 Obviously, you'll be able to then put him on your bench and have somebody else. step in for a while. And I took him 181st overall. So it's not like the price is super high for him. So I'm good with that. Then I've got Michael Brantley, Nomar Mazar, and Fran Mill Reyes. Obviously, my half field is not as strong as one.
Starting point is 00:27:07 I thought it was when we thought there was a chance next sends out could be playing every day from opening day. That doesn't look likely now. And it's just, it would be different if I had a bench. So it's not super strong. And then I've got Jordan Alvarez as my, utility. So it's a strong, um, it's a strong offense. I think there's, you know, this might be the team that's projected to win batting average. Uh, I haven't looked at it,
Starting point is 00:27:30 but, you know, it's, it's a good offense. But then my, my starting pitching staff, you know, like yours, has some holes, has some guys who need bounce back seasons. And that's kind of what I went for with this starting pitching staff. So I've got Max Scherzer. He was my number 12 overall pick. And then my number two is probably Carlos Carrasco or Corey Klobber, betting on bouncebacks for both of those guys. Got John Gray, who I actually, John Gray feels like he's kind of, everybody's just kind of over him after we were hoping for so much potential.
Starting point is 00:28:07 And he's actually coming off a pretty good season. So, you know, I'm not quite sure why everybody's given up on him. I've got Kenta Maeda and Luke Weaver, two guys who, you know, I think will be good when they pitch. Hopefully they'll pitch more, you know, especially in Weaver's case. Hopefully he'll be able to avoid the injury that kind of derailed his 2019 when he was breaking out.
Starting point is 00:28:27 And then my pitchers, oh, sorry. I think Luke Weaver's your fourth best tier. If I was just, if I was listing them in order of impact, I think they'll make, I'd go Scherzer, Carasco, Kluber, Weaver. And it, that is, it's a staff that could go really, really wrong. I have basically one sure thing. And then my really my closers are
Starting point is 00:28:47 Edwin Diaz, Sean Doolittle, and Craig Kimbril. So again, sticking with that theme of catching guys coming off of down years and hoping they'll bounce back. You know, I'm, I'm perfectly happy to take Edwin Diaz and Craig and Craig Kimbril in pretty much every draft I do, even knowing that there is some risks. So, you know, in both of our cases, I think there might be a little more upside with my team but you know it's
Starting point is 00:29:19 this team could easily finish last with the way it's built yeah yeah I'm just kind of glancing over some other teams to see who took an approach that I preferred to mine I like
Starting point is 00:29:36 Adam Azor's team more than mine and he's always first when you're looking at the roster grid because his team name is Adam Azer A. But yeah, it's, his pitching staff is Jack Flaherty, Charlie Morton, Clayton, Kershaw, Mike Minor, Herman Marquez, Lance McCullors. Those are his six starting pitchers. And it's like he has a better outfield than either of us. He does have the weakest infield of us,
Starting point is 00:30:03 but it's not that bad. Right, right. It's, you definitely see, like, G.O. Orchell is his corner infielder. Gio Arshel could hit 300 with 30 homers this year in the Yankees' lineup. It's, it's completely within the realm of possibility. So I think Adam Azer gave himself a better chance of being a top contender in this league than I did. And if you will allow me to say, then you did as well. How dare you, sir? You know, I'm very proud.
Starting point is 00:30:35 And I won't stand for it. All right, let's go round by round and kind of look at some of the more interesting picks from the, you know, we'll see if we can get through the first dozen or so round. over the next 15 minutes, let's say. So, round one, Ronald Acuna, Mike Trout, Christian Yalach, Mookiee, Bats, Cody Bellinger. That's the five. They're going to go top five at worst, top six, in pretty much every single draft.
Starting point is 00:31:00 And so that's where it's at. Then our first surprise, Trevor Story, at number six, Francisco Lindor 7, Jacob de Grom, eight to Heath Cummings, Garrett Cole, 9, Juan Soto 10, Justin Verlander 11, and Max Scherzer. 12 last two picks were you and me. I think there are three picks that stand out here, and I think they're pretty obvious.
Starting point is 00:31:22 So let's talk about Trevor Story at number six. Is that a reach? I've seen this in a few places. Yeah, I actually think it makes sense. You've got two years in a row of, him and Christian Eilts are the only players over the last two seasons with 70 home runs and 50 plus stolen bases. So right there,
Starting point is 00:31:41 that's really good company, and it's not like Trevor Story's going to hurt you in batting average. you know, the gains that he's made in terms of his contact profile over the last couple of years, plus the fact that course field, you know, is a tide that raises all ships, he's hit 290 each of the last two seasons. He's a legitimate five category guy. Yeah, the thing I struggle with Trevor's story, because the production, it's been two years in a row, I basically buy it.
Starting point is 00:32:11 I think Alex Breggman is a better player. and I think Alex Breggman I mean in a points league it would be no contest he's a better player obviously this is a Roto League and this is this is one of those things I'm struggling with because there's a likelihood
Starting point is 00:32:28 Trevor's story gives you 20 steals when Bregman might give you 10 Bregman to me is better in every other way batting average might be pretty close well story's been better two years in a row in batting average Bregman has weirdly been a
Starting point is 00:32:46 lower batting average guy than you would think given how much contact and power he is. He had for a higher average than story this past year. Did he? Yeah. 296 versus 294. So it's about the same. But in terms of home runs,
Starting point is 00:33:01 runs RBI definitely give the advantage to Breckman and overall would give the advantage to Breckman. It's just really, when you're playing in a format like the traditional 5x5 roto league that inflates the value of steals in the way it does, it forces you to do things that sometimes don't make a lot of sense.
Starting point is 00:33:22 And I think that might include drafting story ahead of Bregman. Well, that's also true of the next guy drafted. Francisco Lindor. You can say the exact same thing. Yeah. Yeah, and they're pretty close. Like, they're both probably going to give you 30-ish home runs, 20-ish steals. It's just story seems to be the higher, the better bet for batting average because of
Starting point is 00:33:42 the course field. Lindor hardly strikes out at all. and I don't think we've seen his best in terms of batting average yet. So it's almost a coin flip there for me, but Story has technically outperformed him, at least last year he did. I'm not sure about two years ago.
Starting point is 00:33:57 I don't think he did two years ago. The next most interesting pick is Jacob deGromat number eight. The first starting pitcher taken, that was Heath Cummings, who obviously said that, I believe, on a podcast last week. I don't agree with it. You know, I think he's in the minority. He's certainly not alone in the industry,
Starting point is 00:34:13 but I think in that instance you're probably drafting floor over ceiling and I don't think that's the way I want to go at starting pitcher. Yeah, it's usually the way I recommend in the early rounds. I just don't know, I just don't know that I'm that scared of either Verlander or Cole that worried about their floors. Maybe Scherzer because he dealt with some arm issues last year.
Starting point is 00:34:38 It was a back injury. In terms of per game production, Cole, Verlander, Scherzer, they were in their own world last year and DeGrom wasn't in it. I know DeGrom won in El Say Young and he had a great year but he didn't measure up to those three on a per game basis.
Starting point is 00:34:55 So to take him ahead of all three like you're saying, I seem like that's a little too risk averse. Now let's be fair. Jacob DeGrom only won 11 games last year. He went 11 and 9. If he won 16 games, it's probably a lot closer. I don't know if that... I don't know off the top of my head
Starting point is 00:35:14 if that clears the gap. But that's a good point. And it's two years in a row and it is the Mets. And so whatever, you know, mythological forces are conspiring against the Mets at all times could continue to make that happen. But like nobody else on the Mets has had the issue winning games that Jacob de Grom has had,
Starting point is 00:35:34 even though he goes deeper into his games than anyone else. Yeah. So I think it's definitely, it isn't just a Mets thing. The Mets aren't a 60 win team. Yeah. You know, they won 80-something games last year. Right.
Starting point is 00:35:48 DeGrom has had exceptionally bad luck with the win-loss record last year. And this is one of those weird dichotomies in fantasy where the most valuable stat a pitcher can get and both of the standard formats is a win. And yet it's not one that we really project for at all. No. So it's, yeah, it's just a weird thing to wrap your head around sometimes.
Starting point is 00:36:10 And then I think the last pick that stands out in the first round is Juan Soda going 10th overall. It's actually only a couple of spots ahead of ADP. I think his ADP is like 13th right now. It just, it's a little rich. I'm not going to say it's the wrong pick because Juan Soto is a 21-year-old historic player. I think he has the third most home runs for any player before turning 22 in major league, or before turning 21 in major league history.
Starting point is 00:36:38 So it's not to bet against him, but, you know, when we get to the second round, and you took Freddie Freeman at 14th, if Juan Soto has a 2020, like Freddie Freeman's 2019, that would be a resounding success. I think a lot of what it is, and it seems to be a trendy thing to do to take Soto late in round one among industry types,
Starting point is 00:37:02 and I kind of scratched my head over it. Okay, you're assuming, you must be assuming he's taking another step forward then. I don't think it's as much that is the 12 stolen basis he contributed last year. really make that big of a difference over somebody who has like five and he went 12 for 13 in steel so maybe they're even projecting some room for improvement in that category from Soto it almost anytime there's a head scratcher for me with the hitter it almost always comes back to stolen bases
Starting point is 00:37:29 but freddie freeman did steal he only stole six last year but he stole 10 the year before yeah so he's not a zero there so that that's the one where when i look at you know they outfield versus first base makes a little bit of a difference but not a ton. It just, it seems like you're sort of outsmarting yourself. And Freddie Freeman was the better fantasy player last season as well. Moving on to the second round. And that started off with me taking Trey Turner, you taking Freddie Freeman, then Walker, Bueller, Alex Bregman, Nolan Aronado, Jose Ramirez, Fernando Tatease, Mike Clevenger,
Starting point is 00:38:09 Shane Bieber, Stephen Strasbourg, Jenningsberg, Jen. Jack Flaherty and Raphael Devers. Like I said, more starting pitchers in the first two rounds this year than you've seen, at least as far as I can remember. You know, I think that was nine or ten starting pitchers taken in the first 24 picks, which is not something we're used to. What picks stand out? Walker Bueller at 15th overall is the number five starting pitcher.
Starting point is 00:38:36 I'm sitting here. I'm okay with it. I guess I'm having to. admit I'm okay with it based on the way pitching played out for me. Because I'm sitting here trying to think in the alternate world where I took Trey Turner 11th overall, as I said, I should have done. Instead of Justin Verlander, okay, I no longer had the pitcher banked already. I have Trey Turner.
Starting point is 00:39:00 What would your next two of picks have been if Verlander was on the board? I don't think I would have gone Verlander Scherzer, but actually thinking back, that might have been my plan. I think I might have been thinking about going pitcher, pitcher. So then I would have had to take Walker Bueller, who was ever next in my rankings, it probably was like Shane Bieber. I would have had to take him 14th overall
Starting point is 00:39:24 or go the first two rounds without a pitcher. Neither of which seems like a great scenario to me. In a points league, yeah, I'd for sure take Bieber if I had already used my first round pick on a hitter. But in a roto league, it would be awfully, hard to pass up like Freeman and Bregman and Aeronado for Shane Bieber.
Starting point is 00:39:46 You know? And maybe I won it. Maybe it's just picking 11th, 10th. It's just not a spot I want to have in this player pool. Because then when it gets back around to you, all the pitchers
Starting point is 00:40:03 that have gone off the board, Walker Bueller, Mike Clevenger, Shane Bieber, Steven Strasbourg, Jack Flaherty, the ones you already mentioned from this round but then you got to go through the whole next round too only one starting pitcher in the only one happened to go chrisale but it could have been a lot worse so the next so if i had gone hitter hitter tray turner in let's say freddie freeman with my first two picks and then in round
Starting point is 00:40:26 three the best pitcher i would have been looking at would have been Patrick corbin it looks like would i've been satisfied with patrick corbin as my ace i would have had to go very heavy on pitching the next few rounds for sure and maybe that'd be fine maybe corbin you know, maybe rather than investing in a Scherzer or Verlander type, you get, you know, four more or less, four guys who are more or less aces, even if they're not quite at that super high end level. That'd probably be preferable to what I ended up doing. And we're going on four straight years now of Patrick Corbyn staying healthy. 32 starts, 33 appearances in three straight seasons.
Starting point is 00:41:09 2016, only 155 innings, but that was, he was moved in and out of the rotation. He made 24 starts, 36 appearances. I believe he was healthy the whole season. So there's not really a concern, 200 innings, two straight years, 238 or more strikeouts, two straight years and a low 3 ZRA. That's an ace. You know, it's not a super ace. But that's production that you're happy with.
Starting point is 00:41:34 Right. It's just I couldn't, and I'm saying I shouldn't have done this anyway, even drafting Verlander. I couldn't relax on pitching after taking Corbyn as my ace. So either way, that would have been true. So that probably would have been, I'm kind of just thinking this through in real time here. That probably would have been the way I should have gone with my first two picks, Trey Turner at the end of round one. Verlander or Scherzerer if they were there in round two,
Starting point is 00:42:00 but if not a second hitter and then just go really heavy on pitching for the next few rounds after that. All right. And then two more quick questions about round two on consecutive players. Jose Ramirez number 18. Real quick, are you just, you're fine with Jose Ramirez now? Yes. Second half of the season, he looked like the guy. He was. He admitted that he was trying to beat the shift too much. And it was causing him to not hit for power. And it wasn't resulting in, you know, an increase in batting average to go along with it. It just kind of messed up his swing. and he said that he went away from that in the second half and lo and behold he looked like Jose Ramirez again
Starting point is 00:42:38 and then Fernando Tatez number 19 I know he's one of your busts yeah you just the the expected stats from stat cast especially cast him in a pretty harsh light yeah as Bavip I think was 414 last year the XBA was less than 260 and he kind of stopped running for
Starting point is 00:43:00 he was he did deal with a hamstring injury Yes, but that wasn't the dividing line of when he Like he came back from that to Drain was running like normal And then over the last six weeks of the season He just kind of stopped running So I always worry about that with middle of the order hitters How long are they going to be willing to risk themselves on the base paths How long are their teams willing to risk themselves on the base paths like that
Starting point is 00:43:24 And You know, I definitely see a scenario where he bottoms out And bottoming out for him would probably mean something like Jorge Palanco production, but it would still obviously be a poor use of a second round pick. All right. Third round, I think I spot my favorite value of the draft so far, but let's go through it and see if you can identify which one I mean. J.D. Martinez at number 25, Charlie Blackman, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper,
Starting point is 00:43:53 Starly Marte, Aaron Judge, George Springer, Chris Sale, Glaber Torres, Jose Altuve, Zander Bogartz, and Jordan Alvarez. Who do you think is my pick for the best value? Got to be Rendon, right? Love it. 27th overall when you've got, you know, Nolan Aronado going 17th, Alex Bregman going 16th,
Starting point is 00:44:12 they were the same guy last year. And yes, it was a breakout for Anthony Rendon, but guess what? It was a breakout for Alex Bregman too last year. And so the fact that there's an 11-pick gap between those two guys, I think the top three-third basemen are basically even.
Starting point is 00:44:29 Yeah Yeah There are some more question marks Surrounding Aeronado Than Aeronado and Bregman But But the bad of all data All backs up the breakout
Starting point is 00:44:43 It does And he's moving to A worse lineup overall But probably a better lineup spot Either hitting in front of Or behind Mike Trout That's a great You love to be there
Starting point is 00:44:55 Right No I agree my initial rankings for Roto actually had Rendon going in the first round. I've since dropped him to the second round, but to get him in the third round, I think is just crazy value. And the kind that would be,
Starting point is 00:45:14 if I found him there in round three, I'd have a really hard time passing up, him up for a pitcher like I want to do. That would definitely test my enthusiasm for this new approach that I'm proposing. All right, round four moving on. Tell Marte to me, Patrick Corbyn to you, then Ozzie Albiz, Blake Snell, Luis Castillo, Austin Meadows, Lucas Gilito, Pete Alonzo, Javier Baez, Jonathan V.R., Charlie Morin, and Aaron Nolo, who's your least favorite pick of this round? My least favorite pick is probably, I'm going to say Javier Baez.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Interesting. Yeah. Shortstop is incredibly deep and high-end talent. Stolen bases weren't there last year. The stolen bases weren't there. In which case he's just another slugging shortstop, which I guess sounds kind of funny, but that's where we are with shortstop now.
Starting point is 00:46:16 And you can find much more in-demand items here in round four than that. So yeah, definitely would pass a bias here. even pass them up for VR probably. Yeah, I mean that VR is highly dependent on your team build, but he's someone I'm happy to take it round for. I'm probably passing both of them up for the pitchers available in this round though. Yeah, I don't love, I'm going to come out as anti-Pet Alonzo for the 2020 season. I think we might have seen the the real Pete Alonzo in the second half. I believe he hit 235. I think there's a pretty decent challenge. like he's going to hit for power.
Starting point is 00:46:59 There's no question, but he might be sort of a one-dimensional slugger. And that's my concern. You know, early in the season he was hitting like 280 in the first half and, you know, it looked like, wow, he's actually going to be a really, you know, a robust all-around player.
Starting point is 00:47:16 I would think he's probably more like a 2405-250 hitter. And there's just, power isn't rare enough for me to reach for that kind of skill set. at this point. Moving on to round five, we start off with Kestin Hira, Clayton Kershaw, Zach Grinke, Luis Severino,
Starting point is 00:47:35 Whitmerifield, Matt Olson, Chris Bryant, Noah Cindergarde, Adelberto Montese, Eugenia Suarez, Joey Gallo, and Vladimir Guerrero, to me, what's the most interesting pick in this round? The most interesting pick, okay. I would say the most interesting is... Not good or bad, just the one that... that you think
Starting point is 00:48:01 St. 49th overall Kestan Hira was awesome when he got called up last season. The second time he was awesome. Yes. But put up numbers
Starting point is 00:48:14 that were not dissimilar from what Fernando Tattis did. You know, should be a good source of power and speed. That's the expectation at least. And he was last year.
Starting point is 00:48:26 84 games, 19 homers, nine stolen bases. hit 303, but there's a big but there. 107 strikeouts and 84 games. That 303 average looks really, really unsustainable. It looks more sustainable than Fernando Tatis' batting average too. They both have a similar strikeout problem, Kestin Hura and Fernando Tattis.
Starting point is 00:48:52 But the way Hira impacts the ball lends itself more to a high BABB than Tattis. So while Tatis's XBA was like 259 or something like that, Huras was 266, definitely better. And the difference too is three rounds here, right? In this draft, and I've seen Kest and Hura go like as later as round seven in a 12-team Roto draft. So the difference could even be bigger than that. I'm much more open to drafting Hira than I am Tatis. And like you said, the contributions, even in the most likely scenario, you know,
Starting point is 00:49:28 I put Tatis on my bust list more because this is what his floor looks like, and it's kind of a scary floor. But even if we're just talking about the most likely scenario for these two players, Tatis and Hero, it's probably pretty similar. Yeah. All right, moving on to round six. Anthony Rizzo, DJ LaMayhew, Bo Bichette, the Bounty Hunter, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Chris Paddock, Jeff McNeil, Tyler Glassnow,
Starting point is 00:49:55 U. Darvish, Paul Goldschmidt, Max Muncie, and Josh Hates. Our first relief pitch are taken. I guess at this point, we are not really expecting him to be traded. There were some talk about that earlier in the offseason. I think the Yankees were actually somehow one of the teams interested because they don't have enough relievers. But at this point, it seems like Josh Hader is going to stay in Milwaukee. Do we expect them to keep him in that closer's role all year?
Starting point is 00:50:19 Or do we think there? Because my thought is they prefer to have a closer and then to have Josh Hater. Yeah, my thought was too. I was surprised that they ended up conceding so early last season that Josh Hader needed to be their main source of saves last year. But I guess they realized even quicker than I did that they didn't really have anybody else. And it doesn't look like they have many great alternatives in their bullpen even now. Corey Kenebill working his way back from Tommy John's surgery.
Starting point is 00:50:57 but it doesn't sound like he'll be ready for opening day. I think Hayter's a pretty safe bet. I mean, he's my number one reliever, so obviously I'm still counting on him to get saves. I think even if it's kind of a timeshare, you know, Hater excels in so many other distances himself from the rest of the relief pack and so many other ways that he doesn't necessarily need to have like a league leading save total
Starting point is 00:51:24 to be number one or at least in that vicinity. Yeah. The strikeouts especially. This might be a little earlier than I'd be willing to take him. But to me, it's like when you get to a point where you can no longer count on the starting pitcher you're drafting to be of a real advantage in strikeouts, then maybe you look at somebody like Hader to do that. Yeah. All right, round seven. Let's try to go through these last three rounds real quick and then close out the show with some emails.
Starting point is 00:51:57 Ramon Laureano number 73, J.T. Reluto, Eloy Jimenez, Mike Mustakas, Joanne Moncada, Kirby Yates, Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, James Paxton, Trevor Bauer, Josh Bell, and Corey Klob. I know Manny Machado is one of your busts for the 2020 season. He was my bus pick for third base as well. Who would you prefer, Mani Machado or Carlos Correa?
Starting point is 00:52:22 I'd prefer Correa, I think. I don't expect to have too many shows. shares of either. Okay. I've drafted a decent amount of Carlos Correa in the few drafts I've done so far. Yeah, I think with Correa it's mostly a health question and with Machado there are legitimate performance concerns and that's that's why I'd take Correa. I mean, Correa's health issues at being his back are kind of beginning to raise performance concerns I think for a lot of people which is why he tends to last so long. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:53 I think he's barely a top 100 player according to ADP. But I have a little more hope for him than that. All right, round eight. Carlos Carrasco to me, Marcus Simeon to you. And I feel like you and I are going to trade off Marcus Simeon this season in our drafts. So you like Marcus Simeon, the rare mid-career breakout that Chris likes. Yeah, I just, I think most of the stuff backs it up. And the biggest thing for me is you don't have to pay.
Starting point is 00:53:20 I don't like, I'm fine with the mid-career breakout if I don't have to pay face value for that breakout. And Marcus Simeon's case, you don't. He was. For most of them. them you don't. For DJ LaMayhew, you don't. Face value, I mean, DJ LeMayhe was like a second rounder last year. But Marcus Simeon's going later. A couple rounds.
Starting point is 00:53:39 Jose Brayu, Roberto Ozuna, so we've started to see some relief pitchers go off the board. Jose Barrios 89th to Heath Cummings, Sonny Gray, Tommy Fam, Nelson Cruz, Reese Hoskins, O'Roldus Chapman, Josh Donaldson, and Brandon Woodruff. And it's just going to be like the fifth year in a row where Nelson Cruz provides a huge return on his investment, right?
Starting point is 00:54:02 Like we have... It is unless it isn't. We've seen no deterioration of the skill set so far. Yes, he is ancient. But... It doesn't... It can happen suddenly. It can.
Starting point is 00:54:13 It's not always a gradual decline into irrelevance. That's true. The skills are just gone. But he had arguably his best season last year and there was nothing fluky about it. Yeah, it's probably going to be a great value. It's certainly worth to risk it. round eight. And then I find Reese Hoskins at number 93
Starting point is 00:54:32 interesting because I sort of buy into a Reese Hoskins bounce back season, but when I actually look at the underlying numbers, I have no reason to buy into a Reese Hoskins bounce back season. Like he was putrid last year. And
Starting point is 00:54:48 it wasn't bad luck. He just wasn't good. So it's more betting on the pedigree, betting on the park and the lineup, and just assuming he'll be better next year. I'm not even sure you can count on pedigree with him because he wasn't like some highly regarded prospect.
Starting point is 00:55:06 He became a known prospect because he was putting up such great numbers in the minors the year he got called up, but it's not like he was a name just based on skills before that. And maybe we're seeing why now. He just doesn't impact the ball hard enough to get away with elevating it in the extreme way that he does.
Starting point is 00:55:27 elevating it like he does is what leads to so many home runs, but it crushes his batting average potential. And I think the biggest thing with him, it's, um, I'm trying to think. I think Alex Chamberlain, um,
Starting point is 00:55:40 has talked about this. He just has a really wide launch angle. Like he's got this, you know, really high launch angle that makes you think, well, he's going to hit for power, but then if you actually look at it,
Starting point is 00:55:50 he just, he hits the ball really inconsistently. And so I'm hoping that he kind of tightens it up. He does hit for power. I mean, he had, what, runs last year. Yeah, but it's not enough to make up for the deficiencies. Yeah, it isn't. Right,
Starting point is 00:56:01 exactly. And in a points league, it might be, because he still managed a 364 on base percentage. I think he led the NL and walks. But at some point, you've got to feel like that, just if, if pitchers aren't afraid of him, that might start to drop off too. All right, round nine, Victor Robles, that actually, that looks like a great value based on ADP. He's going about 20 picks earlier. So 97th overall is a really good get for him, a guy who's really trendy in the fantasy community. Then Brad Hand, Mike Soroka, Matt Chapman, Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Trey Mancini, Jorge Saler, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Conforto, Max Kepler, and Edwin Diaz. And we talked about Max Kepler in the Outfield Tears episode. Didn't really get into Michael Conforto.
Starting point is 00:56:50 Is Michael Conforto just a good version of a JAG? A good version of a jab. Like does he really stand out in 2020? Like he's coming off two consecutive seasons where he's hit about 30 home runs, hit about 250, 260, 250. Last year, about 180 combined RBI and runs, not quite that much the year before.
Starting point is 00:57:14 What does he do that stands out? What is it you would say that he does here? It's kind of like Mitch Hanigar two years ago. You probably could have said the same thing about him. The overall production ended up good, but when you broke it down, it's like, where does this guy really excel? I think Conforto is kind of the same way. He walks a lot. At least Mitch Hanaker had hit 280, two years in a row, and he stole eight bases.
Starting point is 00:57:40 Conforto doesn't even give you that. Well, I stole seven, Conforto, so not that different. But yeah, the batting average, there's a difference there. Ciforto hit more home runs than Hanuker did two years ago. It's really when you factor in, okay, he had 90 runs, 90 yards, which I think was also the case for Hanigert two years ago and how likely is he to repeat that again well with that home run total in the spot in the lineup where is probably going to hit the RBI is probably repeatable the runs with as much as he walks probably repeatable so that's kind of where he stands out less so than the typical
Starting point is 00:58:20 the areas where we typically look for particularly when re-identifying like breakout candidates where we look at the skill indicators, I guess. Like I said on yesterday's show, I feel like as long as Mark Kana maintains an everyday job and going into the year, there's no reason to think he won't. I think he's basically going to be Michael Conforto. So I'd rather not pay up for Conforto as well.
Starting point is 00:58:49 Yeah, that was something that struck me. I was actually, I was walking around the streets on my way into work today, and I just was listening to something. something and it struck me like is confordo that good and it i don't know he just he seems fine not someone that i was listening to something about confordo or were you just like listening to music and had this sudden no i think i was listening to a podcast and and so he was mentioned in passing and it just made me think like i haven't really thought much about michael conforto and then i looked into it and it's just
Starting point is 00:59:19 like i i don't i don't know it doesn't seem like the kind of guy i'm going to draft much at this point And then let's close out with round 10. I grabbed Craig Kimbril at 109, paired him with Edwin Diaz at the end of the previous round. So I'm going for the bounce back with both of those guys. I think, you know, Diaz, his struggles were out of nowhere. Craig Kimbrils, I think, makes sense. He didn't have a spring training. He didn't sign until June.
Starting point is 00:59:47 Yeah, he was, the skill set was declining prior to last year, but he was still excellent in 2018. So I'm sort of willing to give him a total mulligan for last year. There's a broader point to be made here, though, that at the 9-10 turn in a 12th team league, we're already having to look at risky options like Edwin Diaz and Craig Kimberle for saves. Oh, Closer is last year, Closer was a disaster.
Starting point is 01:00:16 I wrote my relief pitcher preview and, you know, I think the leader in saves had fewer saves than each of the top three guys the year before. pretty much all of the high-drafted closers last year underperformed. It was an absolute bloodbath at the position. But the good thing is, the prices have come way down on pretty much everyone this year. You know, the last couple of years, we've been used to guys going in the 50 range. You know, that's when you'd start to see those elite closers come off the board.
Starting point is 01:00:45 The Craig Kimbrils and the Edwin Diaz, D.I. And the Arolda Chapmans, and everybody's, you know, sort of just slotted down. and it actually does make me more willing to buy my closers, you know, in this range. I'm not going to pay up super high, but the really high upside guys who don't have any concerns about their role, who are coming off bad seasons like Edwin Diaz and Craig Kimbril, I'll take them at the, around 110. Yeah, that's, uh, I, I find myself waiting a little longer. and usually still getting Ken Giles, who I guess you could question the saves potential
Starting point is 01:01:28 since the Blue Jays were so bad last year. I think the Blue Jays will be a little better this year. And I think just in terms of how I expect him to perform, Giles seem safer to me than either are these two. The rest of the round, a ton of starting pitchers, starting off two catchers, though, Wilson Contreras, Yosmani Grandaul, Chris Davis, Kenley Janssen, Zach Wheeler,
Starting point is 01:01:49 Shohei Otani, Frankie Montas, Max Freed, Lance Lynn, David Dahl, on Hazer's Lazzardo. I assume you're with me and loving Frankie Montas at that value 116th overall. Yes. Yes. In retrospect, I clearly should have taken him
Starting point is 01:02:05 instead of Wilson Contreras. Yeah. No, that would have helped. All right. Let's do one more round. We'll have to punt on emails until tomorrow. I'm very sorry about that, but these mock drafts can take up some time.
Starting point is 01:02:21 So round 11 starts off with Eduardo Rodriguez, Marcelo Zuna, Tommy Edmund. That's an interesting one. Liam Hendricks. Mitch Garver, Zach Gallin,
Starting point is 01:02:31 Kevin Bigio, Taylor Rogers, Joey Votto, Madison Bumgarner, Junjun Rieu and Michael Brantley last two picks were you and me respectively. And this is a really interesting one.
Starting point is 01:02:42 I think my favorite pick in this range is probably Zach Gallin, who feels like, you know, that's actually not far from where he's going in ADP. He went,
Starting point is 01:02:52 126 as 80p is 123 I like him a lot more than that I don't know about you well I was going to take him in round what was it round 8 of our head to head mock yesterday
Starting point is 01:03:08 this is round 11 obviously a different format he got taken before I could and I was going to take him as my sixth starting pitcher in a league where you can only start 5 in round 8 I was going to take him so that that tells you how I feel about that GALN. I think there's definitely a upside there.
Starting point is 01:03:26 And, you know, if you're not having to rely on him as your number two or number three, it's worth investing in. In this round, my eyes immediately go to the scarcities as the players that I want the most, and that is
Starting point is 01:03:43 Gallin, as you said, the potential high and starting pitcher. Tommy Edmund, who looks like a good steel source, and Mitch Garver, who's a catcher who can actually hit. I don't, I don't buy it. I'm not on the Mitch Garber train this year. That's one of the ones that just, I know all of the underlying stats back it up, but we're talking about like, did he even get 300 played appearances last year? Oh yeah, he got 300. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:04:11 He didn't have many. I know there was a point where they were playing him at first base. I don't think he's first base eligible, but you wouldn't use him anyway. He had 359 played appearances and hit 31 home runs and had a 9.75 OPEA. He was awesome last year. He had 335 play appearances in 2018 and had a 749 OPS and hit seven home runs. Right. It's not like he didn't have a productive, particularly late minor league career. He had a 928 OPS in his last minor league season, AAA. That was before they introduced the drag resistant balls there. So he hit 291 with 17 homers, 928 OPS and 372 played appearances his last year at AAA.
Starting point is 01:04:56 And that was really when the breakout happened for Garver. And then I just look at the start to his major league career is just an adjustment period where he wasn't playing all that regularly. And last year was really more when he kind of came into his own. No, you're not buying it? No. No. Full, don't, I'm not a fool.
Starting point is 01:05:21 I'm not going to fall for this I'm not going to fall for the the good 80 games I'm too smart for that I'm very little to get excited about after Garber's gone Buster Posey Buster Posey baby
Starting point is 01:05:34 Buster Posey and Stephen Vote that's my catcher combo You can't beat that You're going to be a backup come July You're going to be a backup come July I'm sorry that was mean What are you saying? Nothing
Starting point is 01:05:48 Should I be updating my resume? No you're the starter You're my star. You're the cleanup hitter. You're the point guard. You're the quarterback. I don't know why I struggled finding the football one. The football one's probably the most obvious one.
Starting point is 01:06:05 Probably. All right, that's going to do it for today's episode of the fantasy baseball. Today podcast. Thanks so much for listening. Scott and I will be back on Friday. So we'll see you then.

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