Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/01: Altuve or Lindor? SP Tiers and Mailbag (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 1, 2019

Is Francisco Lindor really better than Jose Altuve, or are people too low on Altuve after his 2018 struggles? We kick off the show with that debate and then get into rankings disputes for Jake Bauers (9:25) and Trevor Bauer (14:25) ... Scott's tiers are published and we'll discuss his SP tiers (18:00). How many Top 24 SPs do we want? ... News and notes (27:00) including thoughts on Shohei Ohtani and Greg Holland. Plus another round of "Who is This Year's ___" (34:00) as we try to guess the next major bust, young SP to break out, middle relief Roto specialist and more. We also read a lot of your emails (46:00) as we answer questions about Ian Happ, Rougned Odor, BABIP and our favorite league formats ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Domingo. Getting closer to spring training, getting closer to our positional previews. Today we're going to debate a couple of elite players and some, not quite elite players. Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast on February 1st. It's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris, on a beautiful Kokomo Friday. How's your Kokomo Friday, guys? Was that your intro? Yeah, the intro is usually pretty good, man.

Who is that? He's just so proud of himself right now. Actually, it was Chris's idea, perfectly executed by Lucas, who is here for Take Your Child to Work Day, which we are observing today. So he's going to join us on the podcast. Awesome. Yes. Lucas will be joining us in a little bit after we debate Jose Altuvae versus Francisco Lindor. We'll also get into a couple of rankings debates, Jake Bowers and Trevor Bauer.

And Scott's tiers are out and available. So we'll talk about some starting pitcher tiers. Also, did the Diamondbacks find their new closer? and more of who is this year's continuing from a Wednesday's show. Hey, I'm going to forget to ask. Who do you guys like in the Super Bowl? What do you mean by light? Yeah, there's no.

Who's going to win? Who's going to win? There's an obvious answer. The obvious answer if who's going to win is the Patriots, because that's what they do. Not according to Matt Heath. The answer of who you're pulling for is the Rams because they're not the Patriots. Well, Heath and I think the Rams are going to win. Well, there's that.

Okay. I only think what I like. Who does Lucas think is going to win? Rams. Rams. Okay, good. Three to two. All right, let's, so, yeah, I did a Twitter poll yesterday.

Who would you rather have Jose Al-Tuvae or Francisco Lindor? Al-Tuve got 45% of the vote. Lindor got 55% of the vote. Who would you guys rather have Al-Tuve or Lindor? Lindor. Lindor. I have Lindor ranked higher. I would prefer to have Lindor.

I really want to say Al-Tubei. Because I do feel like there's a little bit of, well, sure, Lindor was better last year. I think there's a little bit of people think Jose Al-Tuve is like 35 years old. Well, he's four years older. He's what? Four years older than Lindor. He's 29.

The door's 25. He's 29. It might just be done. But this was arguably the best, like, no question, top three fantasy player for the previous four years before this. And then he has one bad half season. We're just, we're done.

Well, his name is mud. He's going like eighth. I'm sure we're done with him. His name is mud. And he plays the most shallow non-catcher position in baseball. Yeah, I've actually, I mean, I take Lindor just because I think

the stats are too obvious that he's, you know, after after Trout Betts and Ramirez, it's hard to make an argument against taking him, but I have become more optimistic about Altovae, reading more about what he was dealing with in the second half, which Astros kept under wraps at the time. So it was harder to explain what was going on.

Well, he was playing through a fractured kneecap, which seems like a pretty severe injury. He's had it surgically repaired since. All of his numbers basically dropped. It wasn't just the steals. The steals are what I was mostly harping on, because he needs to be a top base dealer to be that valuable. But it was pretty much his numbers across the board declined over those final three months.

Yeah, I think the probability of him bouncing back to normal Jose Altuve production is pretty high. Yeah, he's 15th in NFBC ADP overall. He's 15th since the start of January. 15th, my goodness. That's obvious value. I thought I was low-balling him at 8th. Yeah. I plan, I haven't done it yet, but I need to move them up to like six.

I think I'll put him behind those top four in Aeronado just because Aeronado is so safe, but then Al Tuve. Like, I'm sorry, Javier Baez is going ahead of him. That's ridiculous. Like, even if you buy Javier Baez, what he did last year was basically just Jose Altuve but with 20 points of batting average lopped off. So are we in agreement that the first three picks in some order are trout bets, Jose Ramirez? I think so, though. I've seen some people on, you know, Fantasypros.com obviously compares different people across the industry, their rankings. I've seen a lot of people have Lindor actually third instead of fourth. But for me, it's a clear top three with Ramirez in there.

There's too many tiers there in ADP. Trout is 1.15, Betts is 1.87. Ramirez is 4.39. Lindor is 4.77. Yeah, I've got it, Betz, Trout, Ramirez, Lindor, L2B. I think those are the top five. Yeah, and it's just, Lindor is interesting because, you know, he's a 270 hitter, right, 275.

And where are the steals? The 25 he had last year, the 15 he had the year before. If you compare him to Al Tuve, Altuve is going to beat him in batting average. If he's right, he's going to beat him in steals. Runs in RBI's combined are probably going to be pretty similar. Lindor's not a huge run, RBI guy because he leads off.

and then it comes down to Will Al Tuve? I'm sorry, no, you know Lindor's going to be in the home runs, but will Al Tuvee get back to being a 30-steel guy? So I just thought it was kind of interesting that that's not even a debate, and I think it should be, and Aronado should be in there too. And I looked at their fantasy points for Al-Tuve, Lindor, and Aronado in their two best seasons. And at their peak, all of them, their best best season,

was between 620.5 and 628.5. So, you know, all three of them at their best have been basically the same. Al Tuvei has, you know, the higher average in terms of his two best fantasy points seasons. Last question, though, Lindor did show improvement from his breakout 2017 to his amazing 2018 season when he finished as the number three hitter and points number four in Roto. Are we sure we've seen the best from Francisco Lindor? because I think his walk rate went up and his runs went up by 30 but his steals went up

and in the second half of the year he actually ran a lot. So anyway, do you think that there's even more for Francisco Linder to get to? It's unlikely we've seen the very, very best season from Francisco Linder at 25

or 24 really. Yeah. Just as a just talking probability like we haven't seen that that 2018 Mookie Betts season where everything comes together for him in the right way at the right time. Yeah, you were kind of harping on batting average, but we haven't seen from Lindor the outlier Babib season.

He's actually kind of a, he hardly strikes out at all for a power hitter. So he's, you know, because he's so fly ball focused, the babbip tends to be below average. But I think there's a good luck season someday that's going to happen where that bad bit is closer to like 320 and he's a five-category performer. Okay. All right. Well, Heath, bring your kid to work today.

Yeah, I think we need to have him do a little bit of work on the podcast. So I'm just going to ask him a couple of quick questions so he can go back to school and say he did something. Lucas, who is your favorite baseball team? The Royals. Perfect answer. Perfect answer. Who is your favorite baseball player? Salvador Perez.

Excellent. Who do you think is the best player in baseball? Aaron Judge. Oh, really? Okay, so that was terrible. I'm going to give you a C-minus on this performance because two of the answers were outstanding. One of them was awful.

Do you have anything else that you would like to say to our wonderful listeners? Greg Bird is terrible. Thank you very much, Lucas. I thought you were going to ask him who's your least favorite team, but I think I know what the answer would have been to that one. But anyway, thank you Lucas Cummings for coming on. Good stuff. Man, you razz your son, just like you do us.

Yeah. I'm trying to prepare him for the real world. For real world. Full of Heath Cummings. Do you think there's a single person, Heath Cummings, wouldn't razz? I thought his own flesh of blood, I mean, maybe he'd have a softer touch. Oh, naive. You beautiful newborns.

baby. Let's get into some rankings debates with Jake Bowers and Trevor Bauer and Bowers! There you go. Scott, you like that quote, right? What is that from? What? I thought you were, that's...

Bowers! Nobody knows that? Baseball movie? I know it's you. Oh. Yeah, I knew it. Little Big League. Yeah, the little big league.

Water balloon scene. Bowers is the best character in that. He's awesome. Yeah, he's awesome. Jake Bowers is 27th at first base for Scott, 13th for Heath. Go. We already debate him? I guess that was a Chris host.

Oh, crap. All right, all right. Trevor Bowler. You know, a lot of people do it again. You do it again. Whatever. I'm disappointed Scott hasn't moved him up yet. Well, I'm really disappointed you haven't moved him down yet.

Now we're all disappointed. All right, so tell us what you like that. And Lucas is disappointed that Adam didn't listen to. to our podcast while he wasn't here and doesn't know what we talked about. I think I did, actually. That's the bad thing. Yeah, I'm sorry about that. All right, we'll make this one quick then.

Go ahead on Jake Bowers. He hits the ball really hard. He walks at a very high rate. He doesn't hit the ball very hard. He hit the ball hard last year. His hard hit percentage was okay. It was very good. It was 40%.

But that is well above average. He had a 4.1% barrel rate according to baseball savant. And I didn't say he barrels the ball. often. Hold on. And he had an average exit velocity of 86.8 miles per hour, which was tied with Austin Jackson, Nikki Delmonico, Leonis Martine and Dansby Swanson

for 23rd. He hit the ball hard very often. I will correct the way that I phrased that statement, Chris. 40% is not often, no? What are we using as a barometer for a good hard contact He was 242nd in percentage of batted balls hit 95 miles per hour. This is the worst, the nerdiest, lamest argument ever. I'm sorry we're giving you good information for your podcast, Adam.

Oh, boy, wow. This is why I didn't listen to that first one. Well, maybe I could pull it out of the muck a little, because he, Bowers, when he first came up, that first month and a half, he did hit the, ball really hard. I was just as excited about it as Heath was. And then it all fell apart. I think the fact that the raise gave up on him, one of their top prospects for several years in a row. And I think we would all look at that trade where the best player they got was Yandy Diaz and be like, what are you thinking? I mean, the rays are a smart organization.

Well, I think Diaz is interesting to a lot of people. Not to you. You dislike him far more than the industry does. I mean, he was not near the prospect Bowers was. I think that's fair to say. I look at his projections and they've all got him somewhere around 17 to 20 home runs, 10 to 15 stolen bases. D.S? Bowers. Oh, Bowers.

Okay. And look, that's fine. I don't dislike Bowers. I think there is a, I think his pure hitting skills are above average. but I think the upside is something like Eric Hosmer and we're talking about upside from a guy who hardly showed any of that upside in his rookie season and it's still

you know fringe mixed league upside he also struck out he strikes out a lot a lot he struck out 26% of the time he did not strike out a lot in the minors right but that's maybe he was exposed he had a contact rate in the J. Bruce Ian Desmond

Scott Kingery range at 72% he was 180 97 out of 247 players. All of the projection systems have him right around 22%, 23% strikeout rate. So an improvement in that area, I would expect that as well. And listen, first base is not very deep anymore. And so I would rather have Jake Bowers than someone like Ian Desmond. But it's Jake Bowers versus, okay, I mean, Jake, Ian Desmond in an outside of a roto league, I think that makes sense.

But, you know, I have, like guys I have ahead of Bowers. are like Peter Alonzo, who obviously has a ton of power upside. We don't know when he's going to get a job, but it'll happen at some point. Brandon Belt, Josh Bell, I think,

I think those are the kinds of players. Josh Bell had a really interesting second half, too. Yeah, I think those are the kinds of players, Bowers is aspiring to be. And Jake Bowers' full season statistics were terrible. They weren't too good. He had some bad luck.

Like, you have him ahead of Madell's who's been good in the majors. You haven't ahead of McGillard. And was a similar prospect. Yeah, you have a head of, way too low. You have Jake Bowers head of Miguel Cabrera. All right, all right.

So 27th is way too low, 14th is way too high, apparently. And now we move on from Jake to Trevor Bauer. Look, it's not that big of a difference, but when you're talking about the elite pitchers, Scott has Trevor Bauer eighth. Heath has him 11th in points, 12th in Roto. Heath would take Garrett Cole, Clayton Kershaw, and Carlos Carrasco over Trevor Bauer. And Scott would not take Garrett Cole, Clayton Kershaw, and Carlos Carrasco over Trevor Bauer. So both of you are clearly bought into him.

But Scott, you're a little higher on Trevor Bauer. You have him eighth. Yeah, and I'm not super comfortable with it, to be perfectly honest. It's mostly because I think he was the best last year. Like, if he didn't get hurt at the end of the season, he may have won the Cy Young Award. I think he was the front runner at the time. And it's also an instance where I think there are clear shortcomings for Garrett Cole, namely the way the Astros handled him in the second half,

frequently pulling him earlier than you normally see an ace pulled from a game. I just, I think Bowers, if you buy into the breakthrough completely, and I understand he's had a pretty lengthy career where he was nowhere close to that good. But if you buy into it, he seems safer to me in terms of how the Indians are going to employ him. And, Scott, you said, you meant to say Bauer, but instead you just said, Bowers! Yeah, we were just talking about Bowers and now we're going to Bauer. I think he got a little bit lucky in terms of home runs last year. He's probably got three-quarter, I think he, as opposed to a sub-3-E-R-A guy,

he's probably more like a three-and-a-quarter guy, probably as close to a run of regression coming. His Sierra last year was right around 3.2. He's very, very, very good. I don't know that he's going to be a top-10 pitcher again. I, this, this might be stupid, but I feel like Trevor Bauer's such like a galaxy brain thinker and he's always trying to tinker with everything that like, there's a chance he just like tinkers his way out of being good again. I mean, we've seen Joey Votto. Joey Vado kind of did that last year, right?

Like, he's kind of the. Yeah. And I just like, there's also the fact that like last year, a large part of his improvement was the introduction. of that slider that he modeled after, you know, Corey Klouber and Marcus Stroman sliders. The league didn't see it coming. Yeah, but that happened in 2017. But that happened in 2017 for Trevor Bauer, and then he finished 2017 with just, you know, a brilliant stretch, and then he, you know, carried it into 2016.

The slider was introduced last spring. No, the slider, he started throwing it more, I thought, at the end of the 2017 season. He started throwing a slider in 2017, but. but he put work in in the offseason to develop a distinctive, different version of the slider. Well, it worked. I mean, he finished with a 242 ERA in his last 12 starts, 13 games, 12 starts in 2017, and then last year, 221 ERA. Only nine home runs, as Heath mentioned, in 175 in a third inning.

So that's going to go up. But, yeah, I, well, so, Chris, you're saying all this. Do you not think Trevor Bauer is a top 12 pitcher? We both have been in the top 12. Yeah, I think he's definitely in that range. But I'm probably, like similarly with Blake Snell and Patrick Corbyn, I'm just less likely to buy into the one-year super breakout just because there are guys who have done it before. All right, well, let's get into Scott's starting pitcher tiers then.

And we'll, of course, do this with our position preview in a few weeks. But, you know, Scott, do you right now have a philosophy of I'd like to get, blank of my top blank starting pitchers? I would like to get three of my top, I think about 20 starting pitchers. It's not an exact number, but around that. My first three tiers, I'd like to get three of those pitchers. Okay. Anybody else have a philosophy? Three at the top 20?

Obviously, not every team in your league is going to be able to do that. I would extend that number to 24. And in Roto, I'd be fine with two of them. Okay, two in Roto. Chris, any preference? Not really. I'm still experimenting. So this is spring training time.

I'm still trying to figure out what approach in drafts works best. So Scott, you're not including James and Tyone, Jose Barrios, Mike Clevenger in that group that you want to get three of. Ideally, well, no, Mike Clevenger, I do have in that group. I have them tiered separately from those other two. And I'm sure there will be drafts. There probably already have been drafts where I fall short of getting three and I settle for a Tyone or Burrios type

is my third starting pitcher. And I don't think it's terrible. It's just not what I'd prefer to do. I'm feeling very trolled by the fact that both of you have Tyone and Brios right next to each other when I was clearly proved correct about Tyone being left. I have Tyone ahead of Brrios.

It makes you feel better. I'm just, it's a personal attack on me and I will not stand for. We also have a new rule for mock draft that any time Jose Brieus or James and Tion is taking a draft, the next person must be taken next. Even though James and Tion is clearly better. I would not say that he is clearly better. It's clearly better.

Chris, if we could go back to a nickname you had last year and make you ADP boy. Yeah. If we want to get three of the top 20 to 24 starting pitchers, how deep into the draft are we talking? Let me pull it up right now. I have one more name while 80P boy is looking that up. Okay. Is Madison Bumgarner in those three tiers?

He is not. He is the first name outside of those three tiers. He's also on my bust list. So I tiered him hoping not to get him. So the 22nd starting pitcher currently being drafted in NFBC drafts is going off the board at Zach Rankie, which seems like great value, and he's going off the board at 66th overall. Yep. So three of your first five, maybe.

six, but probably five. Yeah, I'm probably not going to do three in my first five. So if that's the way the draft unfolds, probably not going to happen for me. But three of my first six, certainly three in my first seven. I'd be happy with that. Yeah, the hope is that some of the guys that you have in your top three tiers, Scott, super elite, elite, and near elite, aren't ranked that way and by others and aren't drafted

that way, and you can wait until like round seven to get Mike Clevenger or something like that. Well, that certainly sounds like the case with Grank. himself who I have I have him in among the elite so he's you know he's he's in that same tier as Bauer and Cole he terrifies me one thing

one thing that I've thought with starting pitcher though I don't know if you agree with this guy if I only get two of those guys I'm I don't necessarily want to take my number 26 like David Price or somebody just outside of that top that those group in the

seventh round if I only get two of those guys, I'm just going to wait and I'm going to stockpile hitters and then I'm going to add a bunch of upside pitchers. Yeah, I would say looking at ADP right now, I start to get uncomfortable right around 25 because the 23rd starting pitcher off the board is Jose Burrios. 24th is Michael Fultenevich.

25th is Hermann Marquez. I don't want Mike Fultenevich this season. I do want Hermann Marquez. So that's right around 85th overall. So that's where, like, if I can get two or three guys in that in the first seven rounds, then I feel pretty comfortable. Yeah, Marquez is somebody I want two this year, and I actually have him in that group of 20 or so that I want three of. So that's an opportunity where I would be able to get him later than, you know, later than if you were just applying. AdP to my tears, you might think.

That makes sense. Now, can we skip, you know, we don't have to, obviously, but if you feel good about the first three pitchers you took, can you skip the next, like, four rounds of starting pitchers? You skip the next 10 rounds of starting pitchers. I probably will. Yeah. Right. We sort of have a similar, we fall into a similar philosophy. It doesn't always play out that way, you know, if you get hitter value, then things change.

but well the thing is like there are starting pitchers like Robbie Ray Chris Archer Madison Bumgarner that could be very good that are going to go later in those next four rounds you Darvish is the guy I'm drafting a lot but I would rather wait until the 11th 12th 13th round and take guys like Nick Pavetta like John Gray like Luis Castillo I think Luis Castillo finally enough is going 112th um I think the best value in ADP right now is Carlos Martinez at 127. Oh my gosh. There's no way he's lasting that long.

He shouldn't go that late in head-to-head leagues for sure. Yeah. But this was a guy that we were taking the fourth round last year, right? Yeah, what's wrong with Carlos Martinez? I mean, he was pitching hurt. He should, yeah, I completely agree. That's amazing. I got him 67th in Roto.

Yeah, I would take him there. Absolutely. I don't... Oh, 67th... Wait, wait, wait. You have 67th overall or 67th starting pitcher? 67th overall. Yeah, yeah.

Makes sense. So when I look at it, like, if I can get two of the top 24 and then wait, you know, those guys are going, well, was it, 67th or something? And then I can wait until, like, the 120 range to take my next pitcher. I'm fine with that, because then you're looking at guys like Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Charlie Morton, Carlos Martinez who all have Ace upside. I just don't think Carlos Martinez is actually going to

your point is still valid even if he's not there but I don't feel like when we really are drafting in like a month that Carlos Martinez is really going 120th. The air has completely gone out of Chris Archer sales also. Yeah, that's a 335th. That's silly too. Yeah, I mean they're both in that same tier

as Tyone and Burrios and that's That's why the point Heath was saying, well, if you miss out on those top 20, are you still going to take Tijuana Vrios in round seven? I mean, that's a 13 pitcher tier. So probably not. I mean, the idea behind tiers is you wait till the tier is on the verge of completion to jump in there and take your guy. And I don't, it might be Carlos Martinez. Yeah, I think the only difference that we have is I would just put Tiona and Brios in the tier above. Okay.

I do love how Chris Archer's had an ERA over four, three straight seasons, and some people act like he's really good. In terms of where he ranked among starting pitchers, yes, ERA was not his strong series. It does matter. But he was pitching a ton of innings, he was getting a crap ton of strikeouts. Yeah, no, you're right. He's still ranked high. Look, I mean, I'm always the low guy on Chris Archer, and I would be thrilled to take him in the 100. 130 range because I still feel like there's a possibility that just getting out of the NL East could revive him a little bit.

He was so bad at Boston, at the Yankees, at Baltimore even. I don't remember Toronto, but he was bad on the road in the AL East. So I'm hoping, but it just didn't play out last year. Even if that doesn't happen, he's value at 130. Yeah, I agree. I agree because he will strike out a bunch of guys. Honestly, his September was pretty good. He started to show signs of turning around then.

It didn't happen the moment he joined the pirates, but the finish was strong. Yeah. No, I just, Morto just want to point out that he's, you know, not that great. But, yeah, you know. Okay, so thank you for Scott's starting pitcher tears. We will have plenty of your emails, by the way, at the end of the show, not just the end of the show. We've got to spend a lot of time on emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

We're getting a ton of them, and I appreciate that. So keep them coming. Fantasy Baseball at Cbsi.com. Quick news and notes, the Rocky signed Nolan Aronado to a one-year $26 million deal. He will be a free agent after this season, unless they extend his contract. The Diamondbacks signed Greg Holland to a one-year $3.25 million deal. He can earn another $3.5 million in incentives. Does Greg Holland have a chance to be the Diamondbacks closer?

I think there's definitely a chance. I mean, they didn't want Archie Bradley doing it last year, and it turns out Archie Bradley didn't have such a great year either. You look at what Holland did after joining the Nationals. The walks were high, but they were high even in his best years with the Royals too.

I think I might even consider him the favorite. Yeah, those 3.5 million incentives, I haven't seen what the incentives actually are, but that tells me that they want to give him a chance to earn the job. I would assume those are based on the number of games

he finishes and saves. And just to refresh everyone's memory, He had, 2016, he missed with Tommy John. 2017, he signs with the Rockies, was an All-Star, had a 156 ERA in his first 42 appearances. Then he had this terrible eight-appearance stretch with a 19.89 ERA, and then he got back on track with a 169 ERA in his last 11 appearances. So he was mostly great in 2017. For whatever reason, he didn't get signed until March. He must have been a qualifying offer guy, I don't know.

March 30. I think it was opening day. Yeah, opening day. He got signed. Last year was terrible with St. Louis, had almost an 80 ERA, and then was great with the nationals. Sub 1ERA, 25Ks, and 21 and a third. I found two of the incentives. He gets $1 million for appearing in 60 games, $1 million for finishing 45 games.

Well, okay. All right. Shohay Otani won't be ready for opening day. Ugh. Yeah, that's bad news. Very. So what's his draft value? What's Shohei Otani's draft value?

What's his ADP? ADP boy. I was never wanting him before. I'm not ADP boy, but I was never wanting him before like round 15 anyway, because I feel like it's going to be less than even when he's back. It's going to be less than every day because he's still going to be throwing. He's still going to need to rest, let that elbow rest from time to time. So, and he's DH only. I don't know.

that's so far down the draft already. I don't know that I'm that motivated to downgrade him from there. Because when he does play, you're still talking about potentially five category production. But, yeah, I mean, it's not good news. We don't know exactly what the timetable is. It couldn't mean he's there the third week of April. But opening day, I think a lot of people were hoping for that. So his ADP in the month of January was 127 over the last time.

two weeks, it's only fallen to 1.30. No way. Both are still higher than I take him. It's Shohei Otani, who you'll be drafting and putting in a DL slot. And Scott mentioned the five categories. Yeah, I mean, he showed, after he stopped pitching, he stole nine bases and 13 attempts in 70 games. So, okay, he's not going to.

I saw many evaluators claim, I don't know if he was he's the fastest player in baseball or among them, but that is not a part of his skill set that's gotten a lot. of attention. Right. He runs fast. Yeah, he's really good. But he had a 654 OPS against lefties, so maybe they would sit him against lefties, which they did for much of last season.

Not down the stretch, though. Bryce Harper met with the Padres, and the Astros signed Wade Miley to a one-year deal worth $4.5 million. Can the Astros turn Wade Miley into a fantasy-relevant starting pitcher? I mean, my reaction to this is less enthusiasm about Miley than disappointment that we won't see both Josh James and Frumber Valdez in Astros' rotation. Josh James, I love as I think we all do. And Valdez, I think, has a chance to be kind of a poor man's Dallas Kichel. But just given their history, the fact that they wanted Miley, it does raise an eyebrow.

Yeah, I just have a hard time seeing anything there. Okay, I don't know He's not good There's not any chance That this could push Colin McHugh Back to the bullpen, right? I don't think I mean, they pretty much flatly said

He's a starting pitcher again So I wouldn't say never with the Astros But it's I'm penciling him in I think I can speak for everybody When I say that Wade Milley is about fifth

On the list of Houston Astros we'd like to see start. In terms of guys that aren't in that top three that they've cemented. Yeah. I'd rather see McHugh. I'd rather see Peacock. I'd rather see James. I'd rather see Valdez.

Forrest Whitley. Yeah. Yeah, sure. Forrest Whitley. Who was the top prospect for a couple years ago? Oh, yeah. Francis Martez? Yeah, he's still around.

He still throws hard. That's his name, right? Francis, Francis Martez. Yeah, he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. I don't know if he's going to be ready for spring. I have no idea. But, yeah, he's still there. Wade Miley had a miraculous season last year.

257 ERA, 123 ERA in the postseason. And he did that with 50 strikeouts and 80 and 2 thirds. So just didn't give up a lot of hits. But we are not believing in Wade Miley. All right, we're going to get more into who is this year's, fill in the blank. And then your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com right after this. So who is this year's Joey Votto? Votto was arguably the biggest bust in fantasy last year.

who didn't get injured. He did get injured, but he was a huge bust aside from that. Who do you think could be this year's craptastic player, Joey Votto? Ozzie Albies. Oh, really? He was kind of craptastic or fully craptastic in the second half last year. Yeah, and he's going on the fifth round still. It sounds like his best case scenario is hitting sixth in the order to start the year,

which is going to hurt his run production. I'm not sure he's going to try to steal very many bases from lower in the order. and there's a chance he hits even worse than that. Can I go with a player who I think is... Like, we're not going with like an old guy who breaks down, right? No injuries. Okay. Can I go with...

I'm going to go with a player who I think is really good and will be really good. Ronald O'Cuna. He's moving up to like fifth or sixth in ADP over the last couple of weeks. That's just not in the spirit of Joey Vado. What? That's just not like that's not in the spirit of the Joey Votto Award.

I mean, if he finishes like 28th, he's going to be one of the biggest busts in fantasy. That's not croptastic, though. Yeah. This is the second straight podcast where Chris has made an anti-acuni argument. And I'm glad I'm not alone in it because I was beginning to feel alone within the industry. The biggest thing, and I looked it up yesterday, Heath made fun of me. But in the Brad Snitker era for the... Snicker, snicker.

For the Atlanta Braves, they have only had one player. attempt more than 18, actually the most stolen bases that have been attempted outside of either the leadoff spot or the second spot was 18. The most attempted out of the second spot in the lineup was 24. They basically like something like 40% of their total stolen base attempts have come from the lead off spot over the last three years. Now that could be personnel, but Akuna only attempted, I think one steal outside of the lead off spot or two. I mean, you go back to the like The tradition of the Braves organization, the last time they let a middle of the order bat run enough to steal 30 bases was Ron Gant. And that was in the early 90s when stolen bases were much more plentiful across the league than they are today.

I mean, Andrew Jones was, you know, had as much range maybe as any center fielder ever. And the most deals he ever got was 25. And that was, I think, only happened a couple times. I just don't think that's something they're going to ask Kukuni to do the way his steals broke down lead off spot versus anywhere else in the order I think would support that idea. It sounds to me like that was within the spirit of the question. No, it was definitely, I won that one again.

Definitely was not. Scott, you have given your answer for this year's Joey Vado. Well, I don't know that this is really in the spirit either, but it's the one early round hitter who I think's going to be a bust and that's Javier Baez who just has

such a fine line to walk to maintain elite level production he has to be one of the league's outliers in terms of home run to fly ball rate and in terms of Babbitt which is possible but it's asking a lot two years in a row I yeah the fact that

he's going ahead his ADPs higher than Jose Al-Tube. Yeah, that's a bad idea. Hey, one more thing about the Acuna thing with the steals. Just looking at Ender-N-C-R-Tay last year, 54 games in the lead-off spot, he stole 15 bases. 65 games, batting 6th or 7th, he stole 8 bases. So there you.

Yeah, and it sounds like they want Acuna either third or fourth. I just can't see them letting him run that much there. All right, who is this year's Blake Snell, young starting pitcher, to take the next step? I'm going with Jack Flaherty. One of the good things for Snell last year was that he actually pitched a little bit deeper into games. That was something Flaherty really struggled with in the second half. His control was not great. His overall walk per nine number, I think, were the same.

I know they were still a little worse than Snells were last year. I think just a small uptick and control for Flaherty as he develops as a pitcher. could really take him to the next level. Okay. I'll just say Luis Castillo. That's what I was going to say. Especially because he's coming off a bad year, you know. So, all right, Scott. Why are we saying Luis Castillo?

I mean, for all the same reasons we liked him as a breakout last year, now, obviously he's more affordable. The same way Blake Snell became kind of a post-type sleeper. He still has probably the most dominant Castillo, I mean, still is probably the most dominant change up in all the majors. And it not only leads to a lot of swings and misses, but he's not somebody who should be vulnerable to home runs. He has good control. He is good at all three areas that fit measures. And I think it's more a matter of command and consistency in terms of his delivering, in terms of, you know, locating within the strike zone. That's all it's going to take, I think, for him to be become a dominant, maybe someone who competes for Cy Young Awards starting pitcher. So I'm very excited to draft him still. Chris, who's this year's Blake Snell?

Tyler Glassnow. Okay. Do you want me to explain it? Yeah, in 10 seconds. When he got to the raise, he had a 3.52 Sierra, massive swing and miss potential. seems like a guy who should be able to limit Babbitt because his stuff moves so much and the race showed that they could figure out his control issues.

And okay, I'll give one more name. I'm gonna tie the skaggs. Don't forget about him. Last five starts, he had a 1409 ERA. Before that, he had a 262 ERA. He just kind of wore down at the end of the year. Well, it was groin injury. He was on and off the DL twice with the same groin injury.

He kept going back because he was not right. Yeah, Tyler Skaggs. I like him a lot too. Yeah, he's good. Okay, who is this year's Josh Hader, Middle Relief Roto Specialist? I'm going with Ryan Presley, who was, I think I talked about it a couple days ago,

but just amazing, amazing when he got to the Astros last year. 23 and a third inning, struck out 32 batters, walked three, had a 0.770 ERA and a 0.6 whip. And I don't question the Astro is making pitchers better. I was actually going to go with Brad Peacock. I just felt like there was more of a chance of him pitching multiple innings per outing.

But yeah, all right, an Astros pitcher. Anybody else? Sir Anthony Dominguez. Who showed a lot of flashes last season. Looks like with the signing of David Robertson, he's going to be a set up middle or middle reliever type. I could see them using him for multiple. multiple innings at some points because he was a starter as recently as 2017.

And his stuff is wild. I think Adam Ottavino is an obvious answer here. Any Yankee? I want to go, I want to take it a little further, though, and say Justice Sheffield. Okay. Just to think about all the Yankees guys is I feel like they're one inning at a time. You know, they're all great, but they're pretty much just, they're going to get their inning. So do you think Justice Sheffield could be more in the Josh Hader role where we're getting, I don't know, maybe more than 80 innings in relief or something like that?

I mean, I don't think that's a high probability choice, but in terms of a guy who stuff-wise rates very highly, it pushes him into the top prospect territory, but there are questions in terms of arsenal, questions in terms of commands. And it's a very similar profile to Josh Hader. And while I don't know that the Mariners are going to be so quick to dedicate him to a relief role, especially in a year where it doesn't look like they're going to contend, I could see it happening. So it's kind of a bold prediction, I guess. It should be noted the brewers stopped using Harrison Bader or Josh Hater in that manner pretty much after May. Yeah, you mean in the multiple.

winning role? Yeah. Yeah. He wasn't, I feel like he wasn't as valuable. No, no. He basically had two really, really great months for fantasy

and then was a good but not great non-closer. All right, last guy. Who is this year's Cole Hamels? Thought he was done. But he's not done. Maybe just needs a trade, something like that.

Who's this year's Cole Hamels? I mean, we could say Chris Archer, right, based on this was the easiest question you asked. Oh. He's already been moved and he's already getting the helium and that is Daniel Murphy. He got the change of scenery.

He went to Corse Field and he could be just awesome. Okay. Daniel Murphy and Chris Archer. Yeah, I didn't know where we think we're a counting position player, so. Heath makes his own rules. That's a good. He makes his own rules.

To play by his own rules. Chris, do you have an answer for this year's Cole Hamels? Dylan Bundy. He's not old. No, but people are done with him for sure. Chris plays by his own rules. No, it doesn't have to be old. I think people have totally given up on him.

He's 109th among all pitchers, 281st overall. I like him as a deep sleeper. The Orioles are not good with pitchers. I think we can say that safely after they've failed to develop a good pitcher in like 29 years. And other guys have gone on Jake Arieta. Goes on to the Cubs and wins the Sigh-Young. Whenever Mike Musina broke into the majors was probably the last good pitcher that they developed.

I'm not like I'm really not exaggerating. I think he's a guy. There were rumors. Eric Goddard. But he was with someone else before them, right? Seattle. No, he was not with Seattle or he got traded to Seattle. He went to Seattle afterwards.

Adam Jones. But yeah, Dylan Bundy seems like, I think there were rumors that they might trade him, you know, even at the deadline, let alone over the off season. He seems like a perfect change of scenery guy. Okay. So the next Joe Evato is Ozzy Albies, maybe Ronald LeCunia. I don't remember who Scott said.

Who just got to say? Javier Baez. The next Blake Snell, Jack Flaherty, Luis Castillo. And I don't remember who Chris said. Who did Chris say? I don't think I was given an opportunity to answer that way. The next Josh Hater is somebody on the Astros, Ryan Presley, for Heath, Brad Peacock for me, Justice Sheffield for Scott, and who did Chris say?

I don't remember who Chris said? Oh, Sir Anthony Demandis. That was actually really good. Oh, also Jordan Hicks. And the next Cole Hamex is going to be the lead saves getter in St. Louis, I think. Daniel Murphy, Chris Archer, and Dylan Bundy as the next Cole Hamels. Let's read some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

Again, I do want to thank everybody for all your emails. We're actually getting at the point where I can't read even half of them, and it's only going to get more and more emails coming in as we get further in. I'll try to respond to some. Just, you know, I'll reply. But here are a bunch of your emails. Emmett from Toronto. In a head-to-head categories league,

you guys don't consistently make rankings for this format. Who are some guys who are better or worse in categories than Roto? I mean, I think it depends on whether you have daily or weekly lineups, and I think that applies for both Roto and head-to-head categories. Yeah, I mean, I guess what Emmett wants to know is really when we say he ranks this in points, this and Roto. Yeah, it's Roto. Can they basically... No, I know it's Roto, but is it basically the same?

Is Roto the same as categories or other differences? It's not totally the same. But the biggest changes I think have to do with how you structure your league, like Chris was saying. I mean, one other thing I've brought up in regards to head-to-head categories league is the lineups tend to be smaller than standard roto, which means you need bigger impact from every spot. So a single category specialist just doesn't fly for me as much in head-to-head categories as it would in Roto. Yeah, like Billy Hamilton. Yeah. Yeah, the specific difference.

I mean, I think we know that most head-to-head category leagues are on a different site. And they don't have two catchers, and they don't have five outfielders. And they have very generous position eligibility standards. If you're looking at my roto rankings, you can move the catchers down considerably. There's about 12 too many ranked in the top 250. And you can move the outfielers down just a little bit too as well because you need 60% as many. All right, this is from Adam and San Diego. Can you please talk about Shohei Otani, Ian Hap, and Rootnet-Odor?

What are their outlooks this year? We already talked about Otani, so we'll talk about Ian Hap and Root Net Odore. Also, just wanted to share my awesome team name for 2019, Hootie Kikuchi. I like that. I like that. Yeah, so what do you think about Ian Hap and Rutnet Odore? Are you drafting either guy? What?

I don't think any of us knew how to respond to that. What? It sounds, but it isn't. It sounds a little naughty. But it isn't. We have a child in the room, Madam. Look, this blushing. The Hoochie-Cucci was a dance.

right like an old timey dance Adam please stop saying I have to Google this now so what happened to Ian Hap he's basically DTM yeah he's not anywhere close to DTM to me but I still think his

ADP is way way higher than what I would expect last time I looked I still think the profile doesn't look too bad if he could stop striking out 30% of the time. He never struck out 30% of time in the minors. Yeah, but his contact rate is like Joey Gallo-asked.

It was awful last year. It's been awful both seasons. It's the problem. I just don't. Listen, we're 875 plate appearances into a guy's career. There's still a reason for hope. There's been some talk. Maybe the Cubs trades Ben Zobras that has been brought up.

I don't think it actually happens. And the first month or two months this season, they don't have Addison Russell? So Hobby bias has to play shortstop? Yeah, I think it's the first 40 games. And I don't know that it's crazy to think. But bias could stick it shortstop all year. But the point is I still don't really see an opportunity for a bat's there, especially since, I mean, he has to, his performance has to go over the top

to force his way into that lineup. I almost wonder if there's like a vision issue with him. Because he was more selective last year. He stopped swinging basically, 42.8% of the time he swung, which is really low. and he still had a 63.5% contact rate, which is Joey Gallo-esque. What's the answer? Are we drafting Ian Hap? Well, TTM. What does that mean to you? I was Googling that word that I said. I probably shouldn't have said that team, Dave.

Ian Hap is a fine, late-round reserve pick with upside, but I'm, I think it's a very low probability. Okay, and how about Rognette Odor? I don't really know what to make of Rognette Odor, to be honest. Because second base is so thin, he is somebody who I may well draft in mixed leagues, but it wouldn't be before the middle rounds. It would, you know, I'd take Dozier over him and, like, Glaver Torres over him. I feel like he needs to be, to, to, To really stand out in today's environment,

ProFar has to be a big power hitter. Odor. Odor. Odoer. Yeah. Who did I say? ProFar. I would say the most likely outcome for these two players

is that Rugnett Odor and Ozzy Albies have the same season. And O'Dor is available 80 spots later. I think that O'Dore is someone that you probably don't want to take in a points league unless it's deep because even at his best. Now, his walk rate did increase last year, still really bad with plate discipline. But in Roto, he was the number 12 second baseman in Roto last year, and he only played 129 games.

So, there's, you know, there's something there. He's so streaky. So streaky. Mid-season surge, where he looked like the best player in baseball. Well, he's always been in a very streaky hitter. I think we all knew that from the beginning of his career. But it seems like year-long streaks are happening. He had a 50-game stretch with...

Yeah, I think I'm a joke. He'd have to... He had to get a dunk in because we just talked about Ian Hap, his worst call ever. 50 games stretch with a 1024 OPS for Rue Ned-O-Dorah kind of made his whole season. This is from Brian in L.A. Hey, Sora, Riku, and Kairi. Those are the lead characters from the Kingdom Hearts franchise. Dork.

Starting a new 12 team, sorry, head-to-head categories league with some friends. Own it, Adam. Don't apologize. Some of whom are first-time fantasy baseball. players. My co-commissions used to daily lineup leagues. The league I've done for four years has only ever been a weekly lineup league. Which format do you recommend or most enjoy, especially if you want to ease some people into the game? Those are two very separate questions. I think the second one is obviously weekly. You're asking less of the owners. Right. Yeah. If you have four new fantasy baseball players and you're playing in a daily league, I would expect two of them are going to stop paying

attention in May. Yeah. I mean, by May in Daily leagues, I'm pretty much at the point where I still set my lineup once a week. I just go individually each day and hope no injuries happen. That's a lot of work. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. So, but then again,

you know, Scott probably plays in 15 or more leagues. That's true. If you're only in one league, you might be able to handle it. I do can see the argument that daily would raise engagement level to the point, like, people become hook to it, but you're going to probably have to

weed out a lot of bad seeds before that happens. And I would assume first-time fantasy baseball players means they've played fantasy football before. And the closest you get to fantasy football is weekly lineups. All right, this is from

who are you? Connor, from Connor. Was there a noticeable change in league-wide Babbitt last year or in recent years as a result of the increased usage of shifts? I actually responded to this. I know, and it was interesting. That's why I put it the email. Last year, league-wide BABIP was 296. Over the last 10 years, every single year, it's been between 295 and 300. And there's no trend because the year before it was 300.

Go back further than that. And dating back to 1994 or 1993, it's basically been in that range. It's remarkable how little BABIP changes. It spiked in the early 90s. But then ever since then, it has stayed basically within five points. That's wild. I mean, that's very weird. It makes me think the shifting is overblown as a cause for changes in the game. I think strikeouts and home runs have changed the game considerably more than the shifting. And walks.

Yeah. I mean, I feel like it's less a widespread problem than what it's done for individuals, the shifting. Yeah, I wonder if there's a way, there probably isn't. but to know what Babab's been like for lefties. I could look that up. Okay, yeah. Oh, look it up. Jason from somewhere in the frozen tundra.

I've been playing fantasy football for a while now. I just joined my first fantasy baseball league. I have no idea how to play, and I haven't been able to find a lot of good advice for beginners. Can you guys spend a few minutes giving us fantasy baseball newbies some tips to get started? Scott, give them some tips to get started. Well, if you're coming from football, I will contrast it to football.

And the biggest differences, first of all, if you're playing in a categories league, you're not taking the sum of a player's total contributions. It's kind of like 10 individual competitions for different categories. So you kind of have to gauge how well-rounded a player is as opposed to just how good he is. If it's a points league, it's simple. That's more like football, and you can just take overall production. I would also say a big difference is just the number of, of positions.

It's eight in the standard fantasy of baseball league versus what is it in football, five, six. But in football, those positions are all so radically different that you don't approach any of them the same way. And in baseball, you're kind of trying to, that's what

the tiers approach is all about. You're kind of trying to get similar production from every spot, but they all kind of drop off at a disproportionate rate. So you have to gauge how deep all of the positions are in that way. Pitching versus hitting is a big

thing in fantasy baseball because they're both so different but equally impactful. And so that's another matter of gauging how quickly each depletes in your particular format. I also recommend a point league to get started. Yeah, certainly if you're coming over from football because that's more what you're

used to. And I actually prefer it. At the very least head to head categories. You need that You're going to need that head-to-head aspect. Yeah. Yep. Weekly lineup points league or probably a weekly lineup head-of-head categories league, that's the best way to get started. And just listen to the show and you'll pick up on everything.

Right, Adam. Yeah. Oh, go. I've looked it up. Oh. There is basically no rhyme or reason for Babbitt changes for left-handed hitters. It has gone down over the last three years, but that's mostly because 2007 was, or,

Sorry. 2013 was a weirdly high season. But actually, no. It's been basically the same. There's been, like, it hasn't fluctuated over the last 17 years more than 9,000ths of a point.

Wow. Interesting. All right. This is from Josh in New York City. Is punting saves a good idea in a 6x-by-6 head-head categories league? With every category you add, I think it gets easier because that's mainly what you're drafting relievers to do is get saves. I think it also, it might be a little easier because I could see how it might be harder to compete for saves if the trends, if what started last year becomes a trend and more teams go away from the dedicated closer. unless you just happen to land two or three of them,

you might be chasing your tail as far as saves goes? I think A, it makes much more sense to punt a category in head-to-head categories than it does full-season roto, especially if it's a 1-0-type weekly categories league, as opposed to each category is worth a point in the standing. So it's a 6-6. That probably didn't make any sense the way I said. You get one win per week rather than up to 12.

Right, basically. I think your focus in this scenario should be to target really, really good middle relievers and set up men. You punt saves on draft day, but that doesn't necessarily mean you punt saves. Right, right. You just see what's available on waivers because there are always so many changes in terms of who's getting saves. Here's one from Zeke in Alexander City, Alabama. A couple of questions. I'm in a head-to-head points Keeper League.

There's no limit on how many you can keep. So when the draft comes, it's tough to draft really good players. I have the first two picks of my draft. Am I wrong for taking Kikuchi and Hampson one and two? Let's answer that. There's a lot of context we don't have here. But do those feel like guys who are great values and deep keeper leagues, Kikuchi and Hampson?

We're all having trouble answering this question because you skipped a couple of questions, and we're trying to follow along. I think two questions, yeah. Yeah. I don't know how to answer this without having any concept of what else is available. He doesn't even tell us how many players are being key.

No limit. There's no limit. I just don't. And this is something that Scott and I disagree with Heath about. I don't think Kukuchi is going to be enough of an impact player in fantasy that he's going to be someone that you desperate. desperately need to target.

Well, it is a points league, which helps a lot. Because my biggest concern with Kukuchi is that he's just not a big strikeout accumulator. I worry about innings. Yeah, I mean, he has had some health issues, but he's an efficient pitcher. So, at least on a start-by-start basis, I feel like the innings should be there. He averaged over seven innings per start his last two years. If we're assuming, since as many players can be kept, that most are kept and most don't are, you know, filling just a handful of spots.

I would imagine since neither of these guys was highly valued at the end of last year, they would be among the higher ranked available players. Okay, last question from this emailer, Zeke. Who do you like more? Willie Adomis, Rosario, or ProFar? I like ProFar by far the most. I think we all do. I didn't bring it up yesterday, but I don't really.

really like ProFar very much. I like him more than this group, but I think Ahmed Rosaria has more upside because of the stolen base's potential. Although this is a head-to-head points. ProFar was 10 for 10 in Steele's last year. The athletics only stole 35 bases as a team, though. They're not going to let him run. They used to like Cocoa Crisp run back in the day. We'll see. 10 for 10. I mean, that's efficient. That's pretty good. All right, this is the only show you're going to hear about Eric Bedard and Cocoa Crisp. I can guarantee you that. Have a good weekend.

Enjoy the Super Bowl. We'll talk to you. I don't know if it's going to be Monday or Tuesday, but certainly we'll be back at least three times next week with some more fantasy baseball coverage for you. And Lucas Cummings, thank you for joining us. Adios, everybody. Have a great weekend.