Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/02 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Sophomore Slump; Favorite Combos

Episode Date: February 2, 2018

Scott and Adam nominate one player that could experience a sophomore slump. What concerns us when evaluating Rhys Hoskins (1:38) and Matt Olson (4:00)? ... Talking humidor in Arizona (8:40), Eugenio Suarez's value after a solid 2017 season (16:25) and the SPs who are RP eligible this year (18:15). Plus we talk Fantasy combos (23:00) as Adam forces Scott to make some tough choices. Harper and Lindor or Correa and Freeman? Sale and Bellinger or Bryant and deGrom? ... Our sophomore slump investigation continues (36:06) for much of the latter half of the show. We discuss the players who have hurt us in the past and who might be vulnerable this year. Does Aaron Judge qualify? What can we learn from Trea Turner? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Yeah, it's a team scam edition of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Happy Friday, everybody. Welcome to the show. Hope you're ready for an hour of awesome fantasy baseball talk. We got plenty of your emails at FantasyBaseball at CBSI.com. Fantasy baseball at Cbsi.com. We got some combos to talk about and the dreaded sophomore slump. Scott White.

Pizza pretzel. Are those the combos we're talking about? Yeah, well, you know, that's, I didn't know what to do about that because I've made that reference. on the fantasy football podcast. We've done combos before. And I've said that I think combos growing up were one of the worst snacks that I had. I hated them. They were disgusting.

That cheese in the middle of the combo is revolting Scott White. You know what was gross? What? Handy snacks. No, I loved handy snacks. You remember handy snacks? They were gross, but I did love them. I don't even know that was supposed to be cheese, I guess.

I don't know. I like the stick, the little play. plastic stick thing. Oh, yeah. Right. That's fun. And I love Dunkeroo's, right? Everybody loves Dunkeroo's.

I don't think I ever had Dunkeroo's until adulthood, but, you know, they're pretty good. If anybody out there listening to this podcast prefers the vanilla or the white chocolate, whatever it was, Dunkeroo's over the chocolate, like, I don't want to be friends with you. It's a terror. No. It's such a clear decision that the chocolate was better than the vanilla. So clear. Anyway, Scott, sophomore slump. Can I ask you, unprepared, top of your head?

Is there one player that you're worried about with the sophomore slump? And here are the best rookie OPS leaders from last year, if this helps. Aaron Judge, we don't really consider him sophomore slump, but Aaron Judge. Reese Hoskins, Matt Olson, Bellinger, Jesse Winker, Jose Martinez, DeYoung, Haniger, Hap, Mancini, Devers, Guriel. You know, there aren't a lot of sophomores that are being drafted high. Obviously, there's Judge and Bellinger. But beyond that, who's the highest sophomore that's going to get picked?

Hoskins. Hoskins? Yeah. Yeah. And that's, you know, I've seen him go as late as like round seven. So, you know, as much as I love Hoskins, he's the one. I probably fear it for the most, just because, you know, good play discipline, sure.

But in terms of success on contact, it was mostly just the home runs. And, you know, it was such a whirlwind there, the final two months of the season. Like, I don't think we got a really good read of what type of player he's going to be in the majors. I think he's going to hit for power. I think he's going to get on base a fair amount.

I've said before, I think he's going to be a lot like Edwin Incarnazion was, but we're, you know, sometimes he goes as early as round four, and that's kind of banking on him being that already. So I guess he's the one I'm most concerned for just in terms of the, you know, I don't really have a good reason why I think he's going to slump, except for we haven't seen a lot from him. Now, Judge, we talked about Judge before, and there's other reasons to think he's going to take a step back. But even those, I mean, I think you're still talking about second, third round value from him. Yeah. All right. So that's, Reese Hoskins is the one that Scott called out. He'll be 25 years old in March.

And, yeah, only 46 strikeouts. Well, that's actually a lot in 50 games. But keep in mind, he had 14 strikeouts in August. He had 29 in September and 3 in one game in October. So the strikeouts increased as the year went on for Hoskins. I guess I would nominate Matt Olson because I feel like the only, well, he walked. He did walk. 22 walks in 59 games

Nothing like Hoskins 37 walks and 50 games But the only thing Olson really does is Homer And get on base So he doesn't have much to fall back on I guess There's like a you know Seven to nine round difference In where you're drafting Olson versus Hoskins

Which you know If for where you draft them If Olson has a sophomore slump I don't think it's going to be a big deal for you So that's why That's why I was asking what sophomores are we really drafting high enough to worry about a sophomore slump? And I don't think there's that many.

I agree that you take Matt Olson. I don't know. I'll throw out around 13th round or something like that. Maybe a little later. You can afford a bus in the 13th round. The only problem with that argument is that there are a lot of really good players at his position that are going to be drafted around them. And you have to decide if you want Olson over Josh Bell and Greg Bird and Justin Bore. And you could make the wrong decision and really screw your team, Scott.

Well, what's stopping, what's preventing a sophomore slump for Josh Bell? No, nothing. He wasn't even on here. His OPS wasn't even in the top 12 among rookies. Sophomber slump's a little bit tricky because some of those guys had it bats the year before and kept their rookie eligibility. So it's a tricky topic. We'll get into it.

It's trippy, too. It is trippy. Why is his team scam? In case you're not familiar, a combination of our names, Scott and Adam, and Heath and Chris are Team Creeth. So this is a scam episode. Heath is out. Chris is doing some other stuff. But still, Chris is the man right now.

I was nervous when we finished that podcast on Wednesday, the MLB Team Preview podcast. I was like, I don't know. I'm not sure how good it was. I don't know how the listeners are going to respond to it. They loved it. They loved it. I don't remember getting that kind of feedback. That was actually Team Adam.

That was Team Haddam. Heath and Adam were the concerned parties there, and I was like, guys, it's going to be great. Oh, no, but it was Chris's idea. That's what I was going on. That was a Chris Tower's idea. And then I read something on the website yesterday. That was great. It was a transcript of a chat between you, Heath, and Chris, about several topics.

Paul Goldschmidt, well, you know, Heath having Mike Trout forth. Yeah, we were discussing early round hitters in a very informal, you know, basically just to peek into a slack conversation between Heath Chris and I. I loved it. I really did. It was awesome. Great read. And quick read, really easy stuff. So just a great way to get more acquainted with some of the stats and some of the ideas that we have about these elite hitters.

Take a look on CBS.ports.com slash fantasy. Scott, not a lot of news and notes today, but we might not get a pitch clock this year. I think we should hold off on talking about the pitch clock until we actually have concrete news, and we'll go from there. It really sounds like we're not going to now. If Manfred isn't forcing it down the player's throats, I don't know why they're suddenly going to invite it back. So we're not having a pitch clock under the threat of if you guys don't bring the game time down, there will be an even shorter pitch clock next year. I'm all about them bringing the game time down, whatever you can do. Scott and I agree on this.

The best thing to do in baseball would be to not eliminate shifts, but I think you agree with this. I will speak for you. I don't think they should allow more than like two players on the infield on one side of the second base. Yeah. Oh, you do agree. Great. Yeah, no, I do agree.

which eliminates the extreme shifts we've been seeing the last few years. It just seems simple to make a rule where there's second base. Two infielders have to be on one side. Two infielders have to be on another. It doesn't seem like it's, you know, that to me is not as fundamental of a change as imposing a clock on a game that famously has never had clock. There you go. All right, fair enough.

And let's get into it with the email. Baseball at cbsi.com. This is from Luke in Canton. Dear Carlos, Danny, and Corey. Those sound like Cleveland Indians pitchers, Carasco, Salazar, and Glober. Okay. With the news of the humidor, does that drop Paul Goldschmidt for you at all?

I am deciding between Goldsmith and Blackman in a points league as a keeper. Am I giving the humidor too much credit? And Luke, yeah, you are. Marcus, we don't know that there will be a humidor, right? Not that I've seen. It's still up in the air. That was actually a talking point in that Slack conversation.

That's on the website. And my thoughts in there is if there is a humidor. It's like we have so little data to go on. We just have Colorado. And Colorado is such a loopy environment anyway. That it's, I don't know exactly how to apply what we've learned from their humidor use there. It seems pretty extreme the data they've come out with. But the thing about Goldschmidt is he's always been great on the road.

And he's good at so many things. You know, he had kind of a power slip in 2015. It was still a stud. Or was it 2016. Yeah, 24 homers. It was still a stud. I just think among the concerns you could have about first round hitters, that's among the lower ones.

I mean, Black men isn't. isn't proven to be a first, you know, to be, he hasn't consistently performed at the level he did last year and is old, you know, 31 years old. Harper gets hurt all the time. Stanton has an injury history. Like, there's plenty of reasons to worry about all those first-run hitters, and I think Humidor is pretty low on the list. Do you see a reason to worry about Mooky Betts?

I kind of feel like last year was a worst-case scenario for Mooky Betts, and though he didn't perform like a first rounder last year, he performed like a second round. Right. So he's among the more worry-free options. Sure. I think the humidor could be, it would really upset me. I don't want them to have a humidor.

Me neither. Goldschman has a 9-59 OPS in his career at home, and a 904 OPS on the road. 9-04 OPS is outstanding, but it is 55 points lower than his home OPS. Now you look at 2015, a 33-homer season for Paul Goldschmidt. He had 20 of them on the road. In 2013, he had 17 home runs on the road, 13 at home. So there have been examples of him hitting for more power on the road, but typically the batting average is better at home and the OPS is better at home.

And then Goldsmith, here's just a cold hard fact about Goldschmidt. He has been the number one first baseman in fantasy in points leagues, three straight years. No, in Roto, three straight years. And number one or number two, three straight years in points leagues. So, I mean, it's just that simple. When he had that power dip in 2016, he had a career high 32 steals. I don't think we can expect that. He's probably more like the 18 he had last year.

But he's awesome. He's awesome. I read this email. I started talking myself out of Goldsmith at 3. But then I did the research. I talked myself back into it. Like, he's totally fine at 3. But I personally have Trout and Al Tuve are just no doubters 1 and 2.

And then I think there's room for debate after that. If Heath was here, he'd say there's room for debate ahead of that. I know, I know, I can't do it. I get it with Turner because he's shortstop eligible and he could steal 60 bases, and that's like incredible. But I can't do it over Trout or Altuve. I think it's prioritizing steals too much. Like, yes, there is the scarcity of them, and yes, there's the risk of you just getting left out of it completely because of that scarcity.

but if you're making a halfway conscious effort throughout the draft to feed your steals total, like you don't really need that many steals to compete in steals because there are so few of them. So it just, yeah, I mean, we've talked about it before, but it just seems crazy of me to be so worried about steals that you're going to pass up trout for them. Sure. Like Heath would do in his roto rankings. And it's not like you don't get steals from trout. Yeah, like he's going to give you 20 to 30 himself. Right.

Okay. So next email is from Nat Planalp. He says, you can spell my name, my last name forwards and backwards. It's a palindrome. P-L-A-N-A-L-P. What a strange name, that Plenalp from Omaha. I love this, Sky. A lot of responsibility right here.

My league says that if you answer this question on the air, we will abide by the Pod's decision. I'm in a Roto League that's been in existence since the 80s when standings were calculated using USA Today. Wow. Each team has two minor league roster spots. for players in the CBS game who have yet to throw an MLB pitch or record an MLB at bat. All right, two minor league spots. Two minor league players can be kept at no cost during the offseason and at a discount in future years.

Shohei Otani has yet to throw an MLB pitch or record an MLB at bat. I was the lucky one that added Otani minutes after he became available on CBS. Some in the league say that Otani should go to auction because he's not an actual MILB minor leaguer. Our league constitution written by attorneys is silent on the issue. Should I be allowed to keep Otani or should he go to auction for the entire league? Scott, your decision is final. Well, here's what I have to ask. If this league's been around with the 80s, you've dealt with this situation a number of times already, right?

Ichro Suzuki, Hedekhi Matsui. I mean, anybody who's come over from Japan or Cuba, Jose Breu, like, they've technically been rookies. They've been eligible for rookie of the year. and I could understand why you'd make a special exception for them that MLB doesn't and say they're not really rookies. But I feel like you should have already dealt with that by now. In this case, I feel like there should probably be a better way to decide who gets the player in the first place than just who rushes to, who happens to be sitting on the site the moment he becomes available in the CBS database, you know?

Right. But that's, that ship is obviously sailed. I think Scott's got a great point. You know what? I guess it hasn't sailed because they're saying they want him to go to auction. Some do. Well, Scott has a great point. Use precedent if you can. If you can't.

If you can use precedent, if nobody remembers or, like, it just, it, it, it, I don't know. I feel like somebody should remember what happened. I have a really hard time putting Otani in a minor league spot. It just doesn't feel right to me. Like, I kind of feel like... If there is no precedent. If you can honestly find no precedent for how this has been handled before,

then I think... It's just hard to know... If you say, okay, we're going to put him into auction, it's hard to know exactly where to draw that line. It seems like a judgment call every time somebody signs from a foreign league. and that's kind of icky. But I would say, I don't know.

I feel like there probably should be a better way to disseminate these minor leaguers than this anyway. Maybe have like a minor league draft before the actual drafts. Like maybe that should be the start of a new precedent and then these players could be eligible for it and there wouldn't be any judgment calls to be made. All right, since Scott won't make the tough call,

I'll do it for you. I think that if there is no precedent, then he should go to auction. And I'm sorry. I'm sorry, Padron. Hopefully there's a president. There really should be. This is not an unusual thing by now.

All right, this is Mark in Peoria, Illinois. Deer Aramis, Derek, and Alfonso, 2008 Cubs. What are your thoughts about E. E. E. E. Haneo Suarez's chance to replicate his breakout numbers from last year. The big bump in OBP and walk percentage for A.Urhenio Suarez gives me encouragement. And I like Suarez as a mid-round third base. or middle infield option. I don't know that he'd be a middle infield option. I think he made one appearance at shortstop.

But certainly he's a third baseman. Suarez, 26 years old, number 12 in points, number 13 in Roto at third base last year. And, yeah, he did. He had an incredible OBP, well, 260 batting average. 367 OBP had an incredible walk rate and a 461 slugging with 26 home runs and four steals. For Suarez, Scott, do you like Aulanyo Swares?

as a mid-round pick? I don't see much reason to be skeptical of what he did last year. I don't see much reason to think there's room for improvement either, and that's really the problem. Now, if he is middle of field eligibility, I suppose that changes the equation a bit. But I'm looking at fantasy points per game. I don't know if your league's a points league,

but points league is theoretically Suarez's better format since he does walk and isn't really a standout on batting average or stolen bases. So head-to-head points per game. I see Aeronado, Bryant, Machado, Jose Ramirez, Rendon, Donaldson, Turner, Bregman, Musacch, Shaw, Devers, Beltrae, Sanoe, Nunez, Lamb, Seeger. Wow. There's at least 15 third basemen who averaged more head-to-head points per game than Suarez last year.

Even with these numbers, you're kind of skeptical of him repeating. So I don't see how that's a middle-round pick. That sounds like a late-round pick. Yeah. All right. I mean, probably better in OBP, but also, you hope. Better hope he doesn't get traded because Suarez had a 978 OPS at home, 693 on the road. And of course, he is in a good park.

And Paula in New York, and this is an interesting one. With the Garrett Coal trade, we lost Brad Peacock as a Sparp. So Paula wants to know who the best Sparps are this year. And it is not a good-looking year right now for Sparps, Scott White. Yeah, Peacock was far and away the best. And I am still treating him as that because I think just the way the Astros, are known to handle their rotation. He will make 20 plus starts this year, Peacock,

with different options at the back end of that rotation moving in and out. So he's probably second highest on the list for me, but I have Mike Miner as the number one. He signed to be a starter for the Rangers after a great rebound season with the Royals as turned into a dominant reliever. But going back a few years to like the 2013, 2012, he was a, you know, he was looking like a top 30 fantasy starter for the Braves, and then had some shoulder issues.

So I think he could get back to being that. Just a late round flyer for me. So Mike Miner, Peacock's up there still. Mike Montgomery, assuming the Cubs don't bring in another starter, would probably be third on my list. Would you take Mike Montgomery or, like, Edwin Diaz? In a points league. That's really where this matters.

I have Diaz higher. I have Diaz significantly higher. All right. Would you take him, would you take Mike Montgomery or Brad Brock? I would take... That's closer. If Brock was going to be the guy all year, there would absolutely be Brock.

But obviously, Zach Britton is expected to return mid-season, so you're not talking about a long-term closing solution there. I think I still lean Brock. Okay, last one, because you said Kelvin Herrera could be a bus for the Royals. Would you take Kelvin Herrera or not Mike Montgomery, but Mike Minor? Oh, definitely minor. And actually, I think I have Montgomery ahead of him, too. And I'm forgetting one.

I have him ranked among all relievers just one spot ahead of Montgomery, and that's Robert Stevenson, who has walk issues, but showed signs of turning the corner the last couple months last year. All right, that's it for this first round of emails. We'll get to more a little bit later. Again, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. That is the letter I, not the word. All right.

We're getting a lot of emails. Just remember, I can't read all of them on the air. I can't even come close to that. I appreciate your patience. I know I can't get back to everybody. Feel free to tweet us at CBS Scott White. I am at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R. Heath is at Heath-C-C-C-Mings, Senior, actually,

at Heath-C-C-R, and Chris is at C-Tower, CBS. We've got other podcasts for you. Please go to CBSports.com slash podcast singular and check out all of what we've got for you. And really good stuff. We got a great wrestling slash MMA slash boxing podcast called In This Corner. That's getting very popular on iTunes and is killing it right now. We've got the Pick Six podcast with your Super Bowl coverage. Jason Lock and Four are Pete Prisco, Will Brinson, Nick Costos on that one.

We've got an awesome college basketball podcast. I on college basketball with Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander. I won't go through everything, but the last one I'll tell you about is our DFS podcast. So we don't do a ton of DFS on this show, a ton of fan duel on Draft Kings and Draft app. But we do on the DFS podcast, which is the Sportsline DFS podcast. Heath is on that every day with Mike McClure. I am on it occasionally. I think I'll probably be on more during baseball season.

But right now it's mostly basketball plus golf, and we had a Super Bowl edition yesterday. Scott, are you involved in the thing that is sweeping the nation, the craze that is sweeping the nation right now? The HQ trivia game. I am not. I am usually left out of crazes, Adam, and this is one I am happy to stay out of it. Why? It's so fun. I'm so into it.

Oh, they're mining data. You sign up for that app. They're mining your data, and for what? So you could maybe win, I don't know. $18? Oh, last night, the winners had $6.19 each. Oh, wow. Oh, boy.

They're mining by data? What does that be? They're mining by data. They're finding all your personal info. They are not. They're building a profile on you. They're absolutely doing that. I like it.

And 1.1 billion people like it every weeknight. And then, I don't know. I haven't done the afternoon round. But it's fun. All right, Scott, let's do some combos. So I actually put these to Twitter. polls as well, so we'll see what the people want. Do you want, I'm going to give you a shortstop in both of these, do you want Bryce Harper and

Francisco Lindor or Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman? So it's Harper and Lindoror or Correa and Freeman. What do you want? I actually want Correa and Freeman here because I feel like Freeman is a first round caliber bat, has proven it two years over, who just doesn't fit in the first first. round just gets pushed out. And among the early first rounders, Harper is the one who concerns me the most just because there have been two of the last three years, right?

Well, really back-to-back years, right? With Andrews, yeah. He's kind of let you down. I mean, in a big way, two years ago. And then last year, he was going fine, but then missed a couple of. months last what the last couple months of the season he's only had one season where he hasn't let you down in his career bryce harper right yeah now i mean there's something to be said for well if he's producing like he did last year on a per game basis oh incredible thirds of the season i mean he's

still in the lead outfielder and that's true but um i think there's there's the way does his style of play is is kind of invites injury yeah you like you know what i i do want to bring this up about harper though it is a contract year and not just a contract here, but he's about to sign probably the biggest contract in baseball history. If Machado doesn't, but I think he will. I like that. I like that for him. And I know some people don't think that matters.

Sometimes it's mattered in the past. Sometimes it hasn't. I like it for Harper. I think he's looking for a $400 million contract. Do you think he's going to do the Rod Tidwell thing? I don't know, man. I just, he's definitely risky. Here's a strange thing.

Freddie Freeman, right? So last year, he got hurt. Yeah, he got her too. I mean, that's... We're bringing up. He was incredible last year. But two years ago, Freeman hit 302 with 34 homers and 91 RBIs, which is a little low, the 91 RBIs. The 901 RBIs.

Awesome year. He was only the number 14 hitter in points, number 20 in Roto. Kind of strange. A lot of strikeouts. No, two years ago. A lot of strikeouts that year, and he really improved that. last season but with strikeout rate of his career yeah well that was i think that was you know that season only reflected half the breakout it only reflected the second half i think um he proved

last year that he can be that second half version over a full season uh and and so that's i mean that's basically as good as harper and then the other half of this is just i think carea is first of all better than lindore yeah and second of all um more reliably elite than a Lindor. Well, guess what, Scott? Yes. We lost the Twitter poll, because I would rather have Freeman and Korea, too. Harper and Lindor, 59% of the vote.

And Freeman and Korea, 41% of the vote. It's pretty close, though. Don't have a 59 to 41? That's not that close. That's pretty close. It could be like 80 to 20. So only one of them was a real blowout. So I posted this only about,

I don't know, an hour ago, so I don't have that many votes yet. But here's our next one. Which combo do you want, Scott? Chris Sale and Cody Bellinger or Chris Bryant and Jacob DeGrom. Do you go for the elite pitcher here or the more proven hitter? Sale and Bellinger or Bryant and DeGrom? Hmm. I think I would.

I know. This is a close one. This is 52% to 48% in favor of. Sale and Bellinger right now on Twitter? Well, because my head, and in this scenario, my rankings will represent my head. I feel like they're saying one thing. Like, my rankings would tell me to do Bryant and DeGrom. But I'm kind of feeling like Sale is the bigger upgrade over DeGrom than Bryant is over Bellinger.

So I'm kind of feeling Sale Bellinger. I was going to go with Bryant and deGrom, but I've always been like a man-crime. rush on Jacob de Grom kind of guy. I love DeGrom, and he had 239 strikeouts and 201 or a third. I actually think DeGrom is a little similar to Chris Sale. In the past, you've looked at Chris Sails' ERA and been like, how? How is it so high? And then finally, I don't think he'd ever been better than 10th at starting pitcher,

maybe 8th. And finally last year, Sale broke out. I think that could be coming for DeGrom. And I worry about a sophomore slump for Bellinger. still having a really good year but not like an elite year. So I would go Brian and DeGrom, but I totally get Salem and Bellinger. Those are fair points. I understand where you're coming from.

I think Bryant-Degrom is probably the safer combo, and Salem-Belinger is the upside combo. All right, let's go to the third one here. You want a catcher. I'm going to give you two options here. Would you want Gary Sanchez and Miguel Cabrera, or Wilson Contreras, So a little worse than Sanchez, but Jose Abraeu, a little better than Miguel Cabrera.

Do you got Gary Sanchez and Migi or Wilson Contreras and Jose Abrae? I will go with Sanchez and Cabrera. This is another close one, another nail biter on Twitter. 52% say Sanchez and Miggie, and 48% say Wilson Contreras and Jose Abrae. That's, and what was the last one? I don't remember. Also 52 and 48. Okay.

In favor of Sale Bellinger? St. El Bellinger over Brian and DeGrom. It's cool. I mean, look, I did take Sanchez and Miguel Cabrera in the last headheaded points league draft we did. Sanchez in round three, and Cabrera was, I think, round five, maybe round six. How much of a difference do you think there is between Gary Sanchez and Cody and Wilson Contreras? On a perid bat basis, it wasn't much different last year. That's just last year.

Maybe it wasn't on a per game basis. There was a huge difference. And I think the distinction is notable because of the way Joe Madden employs his lineup. Like Sanchez, I feel like, especially now that Matt Holiday isn't there, they don't really have like a dedicated DH. Oh, you know what? Actually, they do. They do. They have the four outfielders.

It's probably going to have to be one judge or Stanton most every day. So scratch that argument. But I feel like Sanchez will be more reliably behind the plate for the Yankees than Contreras will for the Cubs. And a lot of those at-bats for Contreras will come as a substitute. You know, I never thought about that. Looking at the Stanton trade as a downgrade for Gary Sanchez. Yeah, I hadn't either. Right?

This moment. And now look, so the reason is we all thought that Sanchez would get some D.A. at bats. I thought he, you know, would, if not lead the position and plate appearances come very close, and he still might. But they got to keep him in the line of it. So they could go with, they have four outfielers. They have Gardner, Hicks, Stanton, and Judge. They could play Gardner in center field and try to get Judge or Stanton in left field and use them as both quarter-off. I imagine that will happen some. Right. I don't have some. Like, it I don't think Hicks will play literally every day.

I think Gardner will get days off. He's in his mid-30s. And so there's still – Sanchez started 18 games at DH last year, so it's not like we're – you know, it's not like he's needing to do it twice a week or anything just to meet last year's expectations. Right.

And the other side of it, you know, the other part of it is the first baseman. And I was just so enticed by Miguel Cabrera. I got burned by Jose Batista last year because I was taking Batista in sort of a similar spot. I thought he would bounce. back and boy he was terrible i'm not ready to say that miguel cabrera's done he's younger than baltista was and he's one year removed from being like unbelievable so i'm so enticed by by a sancho

magal cabrera combo that's the thing like if cabrera does bounce back that is you got the best catcher in fantasy and clearly um you know somebody who's at least as good as hosea brayu and possibly even better. Yeah. And yeah, between the fact that Cabrera was playing with, I think it was a hip injury all of last year, and the fact that he still had a great contact profile, I think there's plenty of reason to think he could bounce back.

I don't think he DH'd much, but they need to start making Miguel Cabrera the DH. Sorry, Victor Martinez. It's time to make Miguel Cabrera the DH again. All right, last one. George Springer and Robbie Ray or Justin Verlander and A.J. Pollack. This is a runaway right now on Twitter. It's an outfield downgrade for a pitcher upgrade.

So it's Springer and Robbie Ray or Pollock and Justin Verlander. Who do you want, sir? I feel like the answer is going to depend on your confidence level in Justin Verlander. because if you like me think he's basically what his final numbers the last two years show that he's one of the few

aces out there somebody who will give you the big strikeout totals in 200 plus innings you know Robbie Ray what did he have 160 innings last year there's a lot of reason to be excited about Robbie Ray but there's reason to wonder

if A, he was as good as he was last year and be if he'll ever be as good as Verlander. So, you know, obviously Springer is better than Pollock, but Pollock does some things well that, I mean, steals are hard to find, and in theory he should be a good source of batting average, too. So I'm lean in Verlander Pollack here. Rolander Pollock. Well, the people on Twitter think you're an idiot.

Springer and Robbie Ray with 72% of the vote. I, the tough part, like for you, the tough part is evaluating Verlander or, well, you think, you know, it's... Yeah, well, I just happen to know that, like, it seems like the general population doesn't like Verlander as much as I do, and that's been the case for a couple years now. And for me, the tough part is evaluating Robbie Ray, because he still walks everybody. He had a really low Babbitt last year, didn't give up a ton of hits. So I see so much, so many... possible outcomes for Robbie Ray, including like you're dropping Robbie Ray by midseason, or he's top three in the Sanyang?

I feel like Robbie Ray, just because he's so extreme with strikeouts and with walks, is one of the most extreme pitchers in terms of possible outcomes. Do you feel that way? Yeah, I feel that way. I mean, one of the reasons I liked him to break out last year is because the BABIP was so high, but he kind of swung it the other way with... similar peripherals across the board. So, yeah, I don't know if he's going to take the middle ground between his last two seasons.

I mean, some of the individual game strikeout totals for Ray last year were just ridiculous. And so that leads me to wonder if he has upside beyond even what we saw last year, as low as the babb is. But, yeah, I do see a scenario with the walks and with, you know, the fact that he did have such a low babbip last year, like he said. said where, you know, it's not outside the realm of possibility. We're just dropping a midseason because he can't get out of his own way. Like, it's not a likely scenario, but it's among the scenarios. Robbie Ray was the number 13 starting pitcher last year in points leagues, and I probably don't have enough time to look up where he wasn't rode.

It was right around there in Rodo. I think it was a little worse because his whip was kind of high. Nope. I'm looking at projections. This is a real dud. of a research segment here, Scott. Let's just say he was around 12th in both formats and get on with our day. Which brings us to the soft more slump. How much do you buy into it just in general?

As this kind of like unquantifiable specter looming over every second year player, right? I've gotten burned by it enough that I buy into it to some degree. Now, I will always favor the numbers over just that year two on a player's profile. Like, I'll defer to the numbers. But if it's a close call between a sophomore and somebody more experienced, somebody more proven, I will definitely go with the more proven player. Is there a difference in draft approach?

We talked about the one-hit wonder, one-year wonder, whatever you want to call it. that whole phenomenon earlier this week. And you said you'll take them out of value. Do you feel the same way about sophomore slump or you don't really have that luxury? Because for the most part, we're talking about higher-end players here. Well, not for the most part, but we are talking about Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger and Reese Hoskins, guys like that. The one-hit wonders tend to go later. Yeah, those are the only three.

And, you know, I just don't worry about much of anything Bellinger did last year. Like, it just seemed, all the data seems to support what he did. It's exactly what he profiled as in the minors. Like, I don't, I just feel fine about Bellinger, and it seems like I'm among the higher ones in the industry on it. But, you know, like, you bought into Trey Turner last year. You knew that he wasn't going to have the same type of batting average. But you thought, you know, he had, right, you hit it. I forgot what your argument was, but he had enough line drives.

You thought he'd hit around 300 or something like that? Yeah, no, his line drive rate last, as a rookie in that partial season. was among the highest in baseball. And then his sophomore season last year, it was one of the lowest in baseball. This is, Trey Turner. And the thing is, as a fantasy player, Turner was amazing, but that's because of the steals.

His OPS went down from 937 to 789. He only played 98 games. He had a respectable slash line. But if he doesn't get the steals, Trey Turner's not really much of a fantasy asset. Not a first rounder. Not certainly not. But look, a guy who hits 284, 338, 451 with like an 18-homer pace, he's not a fantasy asset, really.

It's, you need the steals. So that's kind of setting Trey Turner apart in this argument. None of these guys on this list are base dealers, really, from last year, the rookie OPS leaders. No, I mean, I could tell you guys who burned me in the past. Eric Cosmer burned me. Brett Lorry. I was drafting Brett Lurie. I drafted in his early as like round three.

Not of his sophomore season. And he was never as good, never close to as good as he was as a rookie. Right. I didn't get burned by Carlos Correa because I was scared of the sophomore slump in his situation. And he did take a notable step back his sophomore year. But that was, you know, that was Carlos Correa as a first round pick. And so, you know, more reason to be scared of him then than what we're seeing with these three players now. Like I said, there's, you know, it's not like I'm confident in all three of Judge Bellinger.

Hoskins. Judge, I don't think, should be a first-rounder, but there are reasons beyond just the fact he's a sophomore that are leading me to say that. I guess the concept behind it is adjustments were made and guys struggle. You know, the league catches onto them. Judge is a little bit different than Hoskins, certainly than Hoskins. He has a lot more MLB experience. than Reese Hoskins. And more than Cody Bellinger, because Judge had, like, 84 at bats or something in 2016.

We had 27 games in 2016. And started the season with the club, whereas Bellinger was a little bit later than that. So, you know, I don't know if this even applies to Aaron Judge. We think he's going to be worse than he was last year, of course. But I don't know if it would be a sophomore slump situation. That's kind of the tricky part about this. I mean, maybe wasn't that kind of going on? The start of the second half.

Yeah, that's right. Or was the shoulder injury, which he was playing through. He had surgery. Yeah. And just to give some other past examples, I mean, Jason Hayward was never as good as his rookie season. I think Buster Posey, just going off memory here, but I think he took a notable step back his second year. Jeff Frankor, if you want to go further back. Trevor's story.

Sure. Horrible. Will Myers is a great. 831 OPS is a rookie for Will Meyer 614 the following year. Well, Pueig. Yes, you'll Pueig. So it happens, and I do want people to think about it. But it also, just like the one hit wonder thing,

there's J.D. Martinez and Dallas Keikle where it didn't happen, where, you know, it wasn't just a one-year thing. There are examples of guys who don't slump after a really good rookie season. So it's not a set in stone thing. but I guess I'm a little worried about Cody Bellinger just seemed like a great year for him. I don't think he's going to be bad, but 39 home runs in 132 games,

I don't think he's going to hit 39 home runs in 155 games this year. I guess maybe, I guess maybe the way to think of it is this. Like, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. Like, that was certainly the case in Hosmer, Lari, Carlos Correa that he EOPS like a thousand coming up as a rookie shortstop. But I don't think, like, Bellinger had a very good year,

but nothing about it seems too good to be true to me. All right, here's one. This is a guy who's going to get drafted as a middle infielder probably. Paul DeYoung, he's 24 years old. He had 285 with 25 homers in 108 games. 25 homers for a short stop in 108 games, but 21 walks to 124 strikeouts. And I broke down Paul DeYoung's season. He had a 37 game stretch right around the All-Star break it started, just before the All-Star break, with a 1050 OPS.

333 batting average 14 home runs and 37 games. That 37-game stretch out of 108 games basically made his season. Before that he had a 763 OPS, after it he had a 732 OPS. So Paul DeYoung, you take his 108-game pace, give him 155 games, he would have been the number five shortstop in points leagues. But I do see him as a big-time sophomore slump guy. And I mean, I think that's just reflected in the walk-to-strikeout ratio. But what do you think about DeYoung? Yeah, I think there are enough quantifiable reasons to be skeptical of DeYoung that

I don't even know that I put him in this category. He's an interesting player just because it seems like there are, there's a big disparity within the fantasy industry about how valuable he is. Yeah, Heath loves him, right? Heath has him ranked much higher than I do, but I didn't really feel like I could put DeYoung on my bus list because if you go to fantasy pros and see his consensus ranking, it's closer to where I have them.

I think there's a lot of Trevor story in Paul DeYoung. Right, right. And I don't mean that in a good way. I mean, yes, I think he'll hit for power, for good power for a shortstop, but there's not a lot else there. And certainly if you're talking about a points league scenario, he walks so little that even as well as he performed last year, it wasn't like he was a standout.

Well, if he had played 155. I don't know what it was on a per game basis. Yeah, well, I'm telling you. On a per game basis. He was 2.84, which was basically what Xander Bogarts was last year. And we talked before about how Bogarts didn't have a great year. It's about what Andrewson Simmons was last year. But those guys were, what did Bogart's finish as like eighth or ninth in shortstop?

Because I, because he was a starting caliber shortstop, but he wasn't a standout is what I'm saying. He wasn't, no. He was sixth. He's probably seventh because Machado's not on this list. Yeah. I don't see a better scenario. The young delivering a better scenario than he did last year. Right. And if that's what his best case scenario looks like, I don't know.

I don't see much reason to get excited. It also reminds me of Rognet Odor. Just horrible plate discipline, and it's just not a good thing. And all right. And then I think one thing that you might want to look at is guys who do a lot of things, that even if they do slump at the plate, Trey Turner, a perfect example. and Andrew Benintendi a perfect example.

He went from an 835 OPS to a 766 OPS. It's not good. But 20-20 guy, his plate discipline was good. He still was a valuable asset. Even though I would call Benintendi a teeny tiny minor bust from last year, he still was a guy that was worth starting and didn't kill your team like some of these others. Yeah, I liked Trey Turner's batted ball profile last year. You pointed that out, and I guess I was wrong about that.

but one of my arguments for Turner last year too was he's good at so many things that he can afford to lose one and still be a stud. And that's exactly what happened. He lost the batting average and was still a stud. And though he's not a true sophomore because he'd gotten so many partial seasons that he wasn't a rookie last year,

that's kind of the same argument I'm making for Tommy Pham this year. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Pham doesn't really feel like a sophomore to me. He's technically not. And he's 30 years old, which makes sense. Even even less so. Right? He's like the quarterback in necessary roughness if he's a sophomore.

What was his name in the movie? Paul. What was it? What was his name? Paul? I don't know. You've seen it, right? No, I just laughed because it sounded like it made sense.

I get, what's his name? I got the context of it. Is it Scott Bacula? I get him and the guy from Charles in Charge. Yeah, that's Scott Bacula. What's Charles and Charles? Charles. actor's name.

Come on, Scott. Scott Beo. Yeah, I know, Scott. Oh, yes. Well, they're both Scott B's, so I can understand why you mix them up. Scott Bacula was Quantum Leap, right? Yeah. What was his name in Necessary Roughness? I feel like it was Paul.

All right, we're going to look this up, and we're going to read some emails. And here we go. By the way, Raphael Devers probably should have been part of this discussion, but plenty of time to talk about him. Emails, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. This is from Sean. Five-by-five head-to-head league. I can keep one of the following. My gut is telling me Benintendi.

Ben-intendi in the ninth. Justin Turner in the 12th. Ender and Ciarte in the 16th. Ben-intendi, Ben-Tentee, Ben-Tentee. Did the effect work there? No, it did not. It was just you saying. I don't know.

Somebody messed with these. Oh! Benetit, Benetit, Benetit, Benetit, Benetit, Benetit, Benetit. Oh, that's great. Okay. Benetetti, Benetetti, it is. Thank you, Scott. And his name was Paul Blake in the movie Necessary Roughness.

Jeremy and Catteter. That's how he spelled it. It needs Dynasty format advice. Oh, by the way, you're looking to play some Dynasty fantasy baseball. You do it on CBSports.com. You can trade draft picks up to three years in advance. We're making a lot of strides. We know fantasy owners want Dynasty leagues.

They want a place to play them. We get that question a lot. CBSports.com has gotten so much better. So you've got to check out the commissioner product. Jeremy and Canada needs dynasty advice. 16 team head-to-head points keeper league. How do I deal with quality starts and wins? Our standard format is plus five for a win and minus five for a loss.

I am proposing plus three for a quality start. plus three for a win and keep losses at minus five. What do you think, Scott? It's really hard for me to assess point scoring changes without seeing how it would affect the whole landscape because it's just hard to know the unintended consequences of this. I'm a big fan of our standard scoring system, which is three points for a quality start,

minus five for a loss, but seven for a win. I mean, seven versus three, there's a big difference there. and I can understand you wanting to dilute the impact of a win. I think that's a noble cause, but I just don't know how that changes the whole landscape. So I would definitely experiment with that. I'm not comfortable giving this to go ahead without seeing what it would do. I mean...

All right, well, maybe I'll compromise and say... I think you definitely need to have three points in inning. If it's one point in inning, then no, that's not doing enough to separate the good. pitchers from the bad pitchers. I'll compromise. I don't love plus seven for a win when you have plus three for a quality start and minus five for a loss. It doesn't really make sense.

I think it values wins too much. So if you don't think plus three for a win is enough, then I think you should, I think that Jeremy in Canada, you should go with plus three for a quality start, minus five for a loss, and plus five for a win. Which is what they already had. It looks like. They had been doing five for a win, even though the CBS standard is seven. So just adding plus three.

for a quality start. I mean, if they still think wins are too influential, cutting it down two points like that, then I don't know. Maybe it's a good idea. Like, I just, I kind of feel like you should dilute the impact of a loss, too, if you're going to do that. I know that's not a very good answer.

That's all right. By the way, I wanted to give out a URL. If you do sign up for a commissioner league on CBS Sports, go to CBS Sports.com slash FBT. as in fantasy baseball today. CBSports.com slash FBT. All right, here's an email from Gmail. No name, just as Gmail.

Keep four in a 10-team head-to-head league. Don't know if it's categories or points, so please specify next time. Keep four. Trout, yes. Correa, yes. All right, so keep two. Bumgarner, Jose Ramirez.

Posey, no. Judge Hoskins Springer. Keep two out of these five. Bumgarner, Jose, Ramirez, Judge Hoskin, Springer. I'll even throw Posey in there just in case I'm wrong, but I'm not. Ramirez and very close call between Springer and Judge. If strikeouts are minus a full point instead of the standard minus one-half,

then I think you definitely go Springer. But otherwise, since it's a shallower format, I think I play for the upside and judge. and do So then Trout Correa Ramirez as a judge All right Our next email Comes from

Oh and again no name What's going on here people It's probably my fault Dear Perron Letterman and Ortiz These are Davids And David Peron is apparently A Canadian ice hockey player

Okay David Peron is a Canadian Professional ice hockey player He currently is an alternate captain For the Vegas Golden Knights Of the National Hockey League I would have gone

Cooleyet but yes uh two keeper dynasty league and i have decided i am keeping john carlo stanton do i keep belliger or freddie freeman in a dynasty league well fredy freeman's about five years older than bellinger and i think that's enough in a dynasty context to keep him over freeman even though freeman is certainly better in the present Bellinger could lap him here at some point in the next couple years, and then Freeman will retire soon after that. Retire?

It's 28. I don't know. He's going to retire anytime soon. Okay. That's funny. I'm being kind of liberal with my use of passage of time. But it moves fast, people. It does.

I'm telling you. Freeman will be retiring before you know it. Pete from Indianapolis, steer peanut butter and jelly. That's kind of funny. I'm in a 12-te-to-head-head Categories. Which starting pitcher should I keep? 12-te-head-head categories. Nola, McCullors, or Jordan Montgomery?

Nola. Yeah, no doubt. James in Kentucky. Dear Crush, Tony Two-Bags, Thor, and the mayor of Ding-Dong City. So the mayor of Ding-Dong City is Travis Shaw. Thor is Cinderguard. Yeah. Crush is Chris Davis, right?

I think so. Who the hell was Tony Two-Bags? Anthony Rizzo? Tony Twobags is Rendon. Tony Twobags is Oh, okay, I guess he's Anthony Reddode.

Good to know. That's what Matt Williams called him, apparently. The Marlins will be the worst this year. What are the chances that Justin Bore doesn't get pitched to at all and significantly improves on his 11% walk rate? Could Justin Bore be a decent value in points in OBP? Well, 11% is already pretty high. Yeah, I want to be surprised if it goes higher,

but I'm kind of taking the opposite approach here because I just, I mean, the bad at ball data and obviously the strike out to walk ratio looks good for Boar last year. It looks like he's a player who can carry himself. I'm just not convinced that he is because he was, you know, this is not like when the Braves started tearing everything down. around Freddie Freeman. We already had a pretty good idea, even before he debuted in the majors, that Freddie Freeman was that kind of, that caliber of bat. And Bohr was just kind of this, you know, this presumed to be quadruplea guy who, you know, kept putting up decent numbers,

and then had a pretty close to great season in a year where everybody was great around him. So I'm, this is possible, but it's also possible that, It doesn't happen because Boer winds up being not something pitchers should really fear without any help. You know what I think we should look into, I do. But you last year said that Justin Boer might be taking a, quote, stud turn. So are you sort of changing your tune because of Boer or because of the Marlins? Because of the Marlins, it's just like that is going to be such a jarring. environment change for Boar.

Yeah. For a player who, like I said, yeah, there were reasons. There are, just looking at the data, there are reasons to be excited about Boer. There were last year and there are even now. But I just don't know how much of that was being in the same lineup with Stanton-Zuna-Yellich, and if he's somebody who can really carry himself without that.

Sure. I think we should look at some teams that have been, like, bottom five in runs scored and see how many, great hitters there have been on those team, great fantasy hitters that don't steal bases. I'm thinking of like Will Myers off top of my head, but he's kind of a steals guy. All right, it's something to look into. Here's that in Minnesota. Let's see.

This is kind of a long one. All right, the question is, there's been a run on starting pitchers. He's in a dynasty draft that's a slow offline draft right now. He has Trout. And in the second round, there's been a run on starting pitchers. The studs, the four studs, then Strasbourg, de Grom, Bumgarner, Granky, they went in the second round. I have two picks in a row, and the best available bats are Votto, Jose Ramirez, and Springer. But there's also Cindergarde, Severino, and Verlander.

So you've got great value here to take, along with Trout, Vado and Jose Ramirez, or Votto and Springer. Or do you go with a pitcher here, Scott, because everybody else has went pitcher. And you know he's got two full rounds before his next two picks. This is about adjusting to runs. I would go one of each. I would probably go Votto and like Cindergarde or something. Yeah, I mean, I'd go Votto and Severino. You can't pass up Votto.

If you can get him with Trout, that is not a scenario. Many fantasy owners will get to experience. All right, cool. But, yeah, Severino, if you want to make sure you get a high-end pitcher, that would be my choice. But, you know, I wouldn't have a problem with Cindergars. There's not much between separating them. Last email here is from Matt.

He says in his subject line, Drink the milk after Cinnamon Toast Crunch. I just drank the milk as I write this. 11 team 7 by 7 roto. Pick one. Cinderguard, Robbie Ray, Wilson Contreras, Aaron Nola or Elvis Andrews.

Cinderguard, Robbie Ray, Wilson Contreras, Nola, and Andrews. It's an 11-team 7x7 Roto League, with K-Pern 9, by the way. Cindergard. Okay. Thank you, Scott White. Have yourself a merry little weekend, sir.

Who you got in the Super Bowl? Trisha! In the Super Bowl? Oh, he's not playing? I have the Patriots, because, of course, the Patriots are going to win. Of course, Adam. I don't want them to. Don't get me wrong.

But, you know, I've witnessed that phenomenon first. You know, I was thinking about this the other day. You could argue the Patriots should have lost to the Rams. should have lost to the Rams. They should have lost to Seahawks. Every Super Bowl. They should have lost to the Falcons.

They came very close to losing to the Panthers, and it's not like the first Eagles Patriots Super Bowl was a blowout. No, you know, the largest margin of victory for them in a Super Bowl

was last year in overtime, six points. And that's why I'm excited because I think, well, I'm not really that excited because I hate the team so much as a Giants fan, but I think every Patriots,

every Patriots, has been an exciting game. I mean, last year I thought was kind of a crappy game. I know people hate me for saying that. It was two crappy halves of football. But, no, they're always close. I was on pins and needles at the end of it. I'm sure you were.

I was too. For, you know, the first 40, 43 minutes or whatever it was. Two wrongs don't make it right. That's how I felt about last year. 43 minutes of game time. Probably like three hours and 43 minutes of actual time. We got to get out of here. Take it easy, man.

We'll talk to you on Monday or Tuesday. next week. We might have four shows for you. Everybody enjoy the weekend. See ya.