Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/04: Roto Draft Review: Best and Worst Picks (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 4, 2019

We completed a 12-team Roto draft last week. Which picks were our absolute favorite picks (1:25) and which were our least favorite (8:00)? Some love for Luis Severino and some hate for Brandon Morrow here ...  How many categories do we actively pay attention to when drafting (22:10)? ... Going through each round with the best and worst picks (25:30). Players discussed include Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Christian Yelich, Adalberto Mondesi, Blake Snell and Khris Davis ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Hey, you ready to talk some Roto Baseball? We've got a roto mock draft to recap for you here on the Fantasy Baseball today podcast on Monday, February 4th. The crappy Super Bowl is over.

me and it is officially fantasy baseball season guys? Oh yeah. A lot of people making that claim on Twitter.com last night. I'd never heard that before, but sure. I could go with that. All right. Cool. We can dig that.

It is baseball season. It's always baseball season here at CBS. And what we're going to do is go through last week's draft and try to come up with the best and worst picks of each round. But first I'm going to ask you for the best and best. worst picks of the entire draft. We have only one news item that's not really a news item. We have an email to read that's about food.

Those are always fun, and we have more emails at the end of the show at fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. I'm going to start with Mr. Scott White. What was your absolute most favorite, wonderful pick from Friday's mock draft? I actually am not sure it's not a pick you made in round six, Adam. when you took actually was it round six

that's the end of round five so almost round six but Joey Votto at that point it was pretty good I feel like given that

first base is one of the shallowest positions this year and Votto is top tier I think still you can make the argument

he's not but I'll put him up there and you to get him almost in round six I think it's pretty good value

yeah thank you there's some picks I dislike more than I like in this draft, to be honest. It was a pretty by-the-book draft for the most part, but there were a couple reaches I thought later on in the draft. But that one's pretty good, the Votto pick. Joey Votto, 58th overall. Just a miserable season. I don't even think he reached.

Did he have double-digit home runs last year? He got to a dozen. He got to 12. Okay. Yeah, he's 35. and he had a 417 on base percentage and a 419 slugging percentage. So that was weird. Yeah.

Is there a reason you think his, because career high hard contact rate, like everyone else in the world, is there a reason why he had such a big drop off last year, guys, Joey Votto? He traded off fly balls for line dry. That which is probably part of the reason why he had a career high contact, career high contact. rate. His line drive rate was already consistently high. It was absurdly high last year. And he had some weird comments toward the end of the season. Like he made an adjustment expecting, um, expecting him to age faster than he did or something. I'm paraphrasing here, obviously, just going off memory. But I think it probably had to do with that because then he had a late season power surge.

And I, I have a strong feeling the power's still in there. Okay, I hope so, because the one thing that does concern me with Votto is that he was dreadful against lefties last year. 260, 3802 on base, but 376 slugging. That's a little concerning for a 35-year-old left-hander, but yeah, I like to pick 258 overall for Joey Votto. Chris, what was... Oh, yeah, go ahead. I do want to point out one thing with Votto. We talked a lot about this, the giant jump in league-wide hard contact rate last season,

So I put together a spreadsheet on Google Docs that adjust batted ball data relative to league average. So it's on the same scale as OPS Plus. So 100 is average. Anything above that is above average, obviously. And he was at 116 last year, which is pretty good. 76th in baseball. 2017, he was 114. So it might have been a career high line drive rate.

But relative to the changes around the league, I think it's worth noting. he has had significantly better seasons before. All right. Excuse me. That's Joey Votto. Chris, what is your absolute, most favorite,

wonderful pick from Friday's mock draft? So my favorite pick, and it actually looks like it's kind of a reach based on ADP, which makes me think that I need to start drafting more of this guy. And that's A.J. Pollock. He went in the middle of the eighth round, and his ADP and NFBC drafts is 116.

I think that's really good value for the upside that A.J. Pollock, brings in. The biggest knock against him is the injuries and when the biggest knock against the player is injuries, I think that's a great time to buy into them because if he's healthy, I don't think there's any question that AJ

Pollock's going to be very good. And we've seen that guys who are undervalued because of injuries, there's a pretty good chance you can get a good return on them. Yeah, I don't know that I buy the premise because he's been pretty healthy the last

two years. He just hasn't been very good. well he know he but that's the thing is that he wasn't healthy last year because he came back from a fractured thumb before that injury he was a monster he was having arguably the best season of his career and then he comes back from that after about six weeks and can't really hit maybe we can just say that the full season numbers are what they are but he hit 236 with mediocre power after coming back. He struck out a ton. I think the swing changes that he made were real. And when he's healthy, I think he's going to be a stud this year. All right. That's AJ Pollock. And I got to say, Outfield, I hate Outfield. Especially in a five outfielder league. Outfield's terrible. It is, I used to think, oh, there's so many outfielders you can just plug in your lineup at the end. You know, it's totally fine. Maybe that's the case. Maybe I'll feel that way at some point. But when I was doing this

draft on Friday, I felt like I was just reaching, grasping at straws toward the end of the draft to find, like, Corey Dickerson went 201st, followed by Byron Buxton, followed by Kevin Kiermire. I mean, these guys have been absolutely terrible at times. So, you know, if you can get an outfield that has a chance to be great, where did Pollock go? He went 98th overall. 90th overall.

Yeah, that could work. All right, my favorite pick was in the fourth round. there were two pitchers that went close to each other. One was Luis Severino. The other was Noah Cinderguard. I think both of them have a chance to join that elite tier. Severino was on his way, and he, I don't know if he got tired, but his slider became very ineffective.

His first 18 starts, Severino had a 198 ERA and a 0.95 whip. His last 14 starts, he had a 567 ERA and a 144-whip. And even with that, 14 dreadful starts for Severino, he was a top 10 pitcher. So I think Severino has a chance to finally put it together for a full season. I wouldn't say finally because 2017, he had a great year. He just didn't have that many wins. He's a top five. I think he's a top five pitcher, and you don't have to take him as a top five pitcher.

That's Severino. Cindergarde could be the best pitcher on a per inning basis, if he's right. We know he gets hurt all the time. But it's a roto league, so injuries are more sustainable there. The fact that you want an ace, you want a lead pitcher, if you can get it in the fourth round with Cindergarde or Severino, I think that's terrific. And I like them both a lot better than Walker Bueller, who went in between them.

Okay. How about everybody's least favorite pick? Scott, what was your least favorite pick in the draft? Oh, I have a couple candidates for this. And one of them's mine, right? One of them is yours, yes. So let's do that one, I guess you brought it up. Round 13.

It's about halfway through the draft. Adam takes Brandon Morrow. which inspired me to ask him. You do know Brandon Marl's not going to be ready for the start of the season, right? I can't... Yes, and so what did I say? You said, yeah, I'm going to take Patriotro Strop in the last round. Right.

To which I responded, I don't know that he's going to be there in the last round. Oh, so it was a 20... I mean, wait. Where I am with the Cubs Closer situation, I mean, Brandon Marl wasn't the closer at the end of last season because he was still dealing with his elbow issue that he since had surgery to deal with, which is why he's not going to be ready for the start of the year. But Pedro Strope was closing games at the end of last season for the Cubs,

and he was pretty much true ninth inning guy. He's supposed to open this season as the Cubs closer while they're waiting for Brandon Morrow to return, at least in theory. That's how long he'll be doing it. But, I mean, he's been a reliable setup guy for many years now. and the reports are Maro's going to miss at least a month this year. It could be two months. It could be half the season for all I know.

I just feel like Pedro Strope's going to have a chance to establish himself as the guy so that they're not really going to care when Maro comes back about moving him back into the role. I would actually at this point rather take Strope ahead of Maro. And I wouldn't be taking either around 13 because at that point, You still had, let's see, who went after that. Archie Bradley and Corey Kinebel, they're not great choices because they're not true close. But then there's no great choice. The following round, Willis, Will Smith, Cody Allen.

Yeah, right, Cody. No great choices. Closer's terrible. Brandon Hicks, I'd rather have Jordan Hicks. This is a terrible pick for worst pick. Scott, I reject it. No. Because I should have gotten strobe.

If I, he went, I didn't think he'd make it to the last round. He went in the second to last round. I was going to take him too. Picks later and I screwed that up. So your argument is drafting a player who's hurt and may not be the closer because you didn't realize he was hurt. No, I knew he was hurt. Was not a bad pick because you should have drafted a major strut. I made a tactical error.

I was going to take. Well, hold on. First of all, I knew he was hurt. I knew he was hurt. I never one second did not know that Brandon Marr was injured. I just figured I'd take both Cubs closers. I lock up the Cubs closers and that's fine. So I should have taken Strope 250th overall.

I was going to take him 250th overall, and he went 253rd. So I just didn't reach a little bit earlier. My thought was like, who's going to take Pedro's stroke? He's going to be the closer for a month. I was wrong in that regard. But I think I would invest the 13th and 20th, let's say, round on two Cubs closers and put one on the DL quickly. Yeah, I don't. In a league, this is a league that doesn't have bench spots.

I don't think that. Well, this league has been, every league has bench spots except for those random leagues. We have no bench spots. We didn't draft bench spots. I mean, we drafted a league with no bench spots. But I assumed, but I drafted it as if we have bench spots. Otherwise, nobody would have taken Shohei Otani. He went 163rd overall.

Nobody would have taken anybody who was going to start in the deal. Chris, what was your least favorite pick in the draft? I'll defend your honor from Scott's attacks. I don't agree with. Scott on the Jerks and Profire thing and he went in the 12th round and I I just don't think he's very good

you know if you look at like the expected stats either through Stackast or various other sites he would he was expected to be 153 in Wobah their expected stats have him as a 253 hitter their expected stats

say that he actually got lucky when it came to power and should have had a 391 slugging percentage. I just don't think it's there. I'm not, what are those don't be based on, though? Statcast, they're expected stats. They take all similar batted balls

and try to project what you should have hit based on where the ball was hit, how hard it was hit, et cetera, et cetera. Revenge of the nerds. Nerds! No, I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding. It's not like he was making weak contact.

It's not like he had a four-line drive rate or, you know, a frighteningly low fly ball rate. It's not like he was hitting a ton of ground balls. I mean, he was 144th in hard contact rate among players who had at least 200. He wasn't great. It wasn't bad, though. It was by far his career best. Right, but he's been very bad in his career. He hits the ball to all fields.

I just, I don't see any way he's going to have a 269 BAPIP again. Does not fit the profile whatsoever. It's interesting you say that because I actually took Profar directly behind my other candidate for worst pick, which was Azruble Cabrera. Yeah, I don't know that one either. Where was that? Round 12 for Azruple Cabrera. That's a terrible pick. Yeah.

Yeah. He's a guy who throughout his history, we've seen barely get drafted. He's in his mid-30s now. It's supposed to be the Rangers starting third basement for however long that happens. That's so much worse than Brandon Morrow, Scott. Come on. I'm not counting on Brandon Morrow from much of anything this year. So round 13, that's... I think it's dribbles a little.

He's not great, but he's always pretty good. He's had a couple 20 homer seasons. Yeah, he's hit 20 homers in two of the last three years. I think he's someone that you could expect to hit 270, 280. He's usually around 15 homies, and he's usually less than 270, 28. He's not great. My least favorite pick, and this one might be a little controversial. It's not as bad as the ones, I think.

It's not as bad as droopal, but it's as far as I got. 78th overall, Yassil Pueig. I don't buy it with Pueig. I love that pick. Yeah, you know, I could see that. But I think if Pueig is going to, be worthy of a top 80 pick, he has to have a big boost in his home ballpark, which he might. I just don't think he's that good.

And I also worry about him playing on a bad team. And if he's just going to check out, I know they're trying to be good. I don't think they will be good. I worry about him not being in the pennant race, not being in a big market. Like I worry about Yasil Pueig being stuck in oblivion and just quitting, basically. I think that's super unfair. And also, he's been good the last two years. Not for fantasy.

Right, but that's just because a lineup border. No, it's because he has a bad batting average. He doesn't stand out. That's average. 260? 263, 267? I think the average last year... Okay, I'll look it up, but I believe...

I'll tell you why it doesn't matter. Because you've got to take the average of fantasy relevant hitters, not the Right, that's what I was doing. Oh, that it matters. That's why it matters. I think last year, I'm looking it up right now. Okay. Last year, the third place team on average hit 273 in fantasy, in Roto Leans.

Okay. So that's not, like a 267 is not great, but it's certainly not killing you. And we're talking about someone who, you know, in 444 plate appearances last year, had 23 homers and 15 steals in 570, so neither was a full season. He had 28 homers and 15 steals in 2017. Does he have upside? Does Yossip Week have a lot of upside? Yeah.

Scott, real quick. If you project out his numbers with the number of it bats you expect from the middle of the order bat, it's hard to envision him not being at least a top 30 outfielder. At the same time, I kind of understand your point where there's always this feeling of we should know better than Yasio Puig because he's let so many people down so often in the past but I don't it's earlier than I would have taken him but I don't think it was a terrible

pick optimistic about Puig it's round 7 Puig took uh had 152 games in 2017 and was the number 28 outfielder in points leagues and probably pretty similar in Roto so he's not bad by no means uh I would have taken I probably even underestimated. I would have taken Confordo ahead of him.

And he only started 135 games. And I think he was pulled in a bunch of those, too, because the Dodgers do stuff that other teams just don't. Yeah, that's a good point. All right, I just not a fan, but okay, I guess I'm alone there. All right, let's move on. Since we can't agree on what a bad pick was in this draft, I think it's a pretty good indication that everybody did a good job.

Yeah, I would say so. Like, there wasn't anybody who really looked like you didn't know what he was doing in it. I hope. If anything, it was probably me. I feel very behind because I didn't do that much in January while I was out. And I just felt like, that's why I ended up taking all these bounceback candidates. I have, like, Votto and Dozier and Darvish. D. Gordon.

I have all the guys who sucked last year. I drafted the absolute best 2018 fantasy baseball team. And I do want to talk about bounce back candidates on tomorrow's show or Wednesday whenever we record our next show. Talk about guys that might bounce back. I think Dozier has a great chance to bounce back. He's a frustrating player, but, you know, where did I take Dozier? Like the 14th, 130th overall, round 11. I think he could definitely return good value that.

But anyway, that's tomorrow. News and notes, the Raiders could play their home games in San Francisco's Oracle Park. Remember, it's called Oracle Park now. That's the only news item I have. I haven't checked since this morning. Did I miss anything? John Heyman sent out a couple tweets lately, making it sound like it's very unlikely that the Yankees will make an offer to Manning Machado.

So there's that. There's a mystery team. Okay. Nobody knows who it is. There are eight teams in on Bryce Harper. And the Indians acquired Nick Whitgren from the Marlins. So big news day. Oh, let me tell you another great pick, by the way.

So based on the premise that he might get traded to the Reds, hopefully, Gary Sanchez went 49th overall. J.T. Rayamuto went, where did he go? 64th overall. 15 picks after Gary Sanchez, that's good value. Good job on Ray Almuto. Okay. Email of the day is from Jared in Milton, Pennsylvania.

Subject, pancakes, waffles, French toast. I think I've decided why pancakes are first on my list. The ability to spread butter. Putting butter on waffles is near impossible. It's a great call. It's harder. You know what we've been doing lately? Have you ever heard of this?

People who don't store their butter in the fridge, they leave it on the counter? No. So that it's always soft when you go to it. Apparently it's okay. It's not like a hazard to your health or anything. It's soft. Softened butter is one of life.

great pleasures. So yeah, I mean, it's perpetually softened, so it's easy to spread on everything. Well, I go pancakes one, Waffles, 2, French toast, 3. Completely wrong. People like French toast a lot more than I thought. Waffles, French toast pancakes. I mean, here's the thing. There are good versions of all of these and bad versions of all of these,

and it's probably, to some degree, depends on your experience with all of them, right? Like, I go pancakes number one. Yeah, of course. They're the Well, pancakes probably also have the lowest floor of the three of them. I think they have the lowest ceiling. Because, like, there's a place by where I used to live that had, like, the best pancake I've ever had in my life. And it was good. You know what?

It's a texture thing. Like, I want a little, I want a little of, you know, a brown edge, a little crunch. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. fluffy texture.

Yeah. Look, there's a house of pancakes. There's a waffle house. Like, French toast is not even good enough to have its own dedicated restaurant. Oh, you've never been to the French Toast Chateau? No, I must have missed that one. I actually had. Like, in the last year, I had a waffle at Waffle House for the first time ever.

Terrific, right? It doesn't look like much, but it's delicious. Yeah, it's great. Yeah. Don't go to Waffle House after dark. It's a scary place. All right, we're going to get to the best and worst pick of every single round, or as many as we can get to anyway, right after this. So, first question for you about this draft.

When you're doing a 5-by-5 roto draft, it was 12 teams, 5-5, and that's batting average, home runs, RBIs, runs, and steals, wins, ERA, whip, strikeouts, and saves. How many categories are you actively worrying about out of the 10? I don't ever worry much about runs in RBI. Yeah, those are common. Yeah, I figure if I'm balancing my power and my speed, it'll more or less take care of itself.

That's not always true, but it just makes things easier to process in the heat of the draft. so I'm mostly worried about balancing home runs and steals while also not sinking my batting average. That's mainly what I'm concerned about on the hitting end. I thought you were going to say sinking your battleship. That would have been so much better. Yeah. And then on the pitching end, honestly, I just try and build the best staff I can while still hitting my hitting priorities. I'm not really worrying about wins.

That's the one. And ERA and WIP, those fluctuates so much for me or a year, and there's so much that's not based on skill that goes into it, that I'm probably more worried about targeting upside with ERA, but also strikeouts and innings pitched. Yeah, I guess I would just say there are some pitchers that you know are going to, are probably going to be high whip guys. Like Darvish in the past. I mean, yeah, even if Darvish gets back to himself, he's not. never been a great whip guy, I don't think. You know, Marcus Stroman's bad whip. So just there are some pitchers.

Yeah, I think you said, it runs in RBIs. You don't have to really focus too much on it. I would throw home runs in there, too. It's so easy to find power nowadays that my primary focus is finding guys who won't kill me an average, unless they're, like if, you know, Joey Gallow, if you think he's going to hit 48 home runs. But finding average and finding stolen bases,

because I just feel like you can find. home runs RBI and runs. You know what? I made that mistake last year, though. Like, by far my worst category consistently across my rhodo leagues was home runs when, you know, I was drafting a bunch of guys like, oh, he's going to hit, you know, 20, 25 home runs. I'll be fine. So I actually have emphasized getting like a Chris Davis or Joey Gallo this year. I actually got both in this draft.

because I want, you know, the thing about more home runs being available is you need a lot more to keep up. Yeah, so I put together what I think is a pretty cool tool for sports line that will be available for subscribers in the next couple of weeks. Basically, while you're building your team, you track the players that you have and it automatically fills in projections and tells you what you're projected standing in each category is, where you need help, where you're doing okay. in and home runs are by far my weakest for this team. But the overall team, even the overall offense is really good. So I feel okay about that. All right, let's go through the draft. So I cannot sit here and say we're going to get through everything.

We'll see what we get to. I want people to feel comfortable with early round picks, maybe the first five rounds. I want you to see how it shapes out and shakes out, shapes up, shakes out. Now, I said this draft was mostly by the book. I think the first round is really the exception to that. It's kind of wacky. I had the 10th pick, and I sort of felt like there were eight or nine players that I would have easily taken, and then they were all off the board, and I totally panicked and maybe reached with the 10th pick.

But I felt like, depending on how you feel about Trey Turner, he would be the ninth. I feel like the top nine picks will be fairly consistent. Here we go. But not in the order, but consistent with the names. Heath took Mookiee Betts won because that's what Heath does. Chris took...

We haven't had a draft in 2019 yet where Trout went first. We talked about Heath, so mission accomplished. Mookie Bets won. Mike Trout two to Chris. Great, great value, Chris. Good job. Best pick of the draft right there. Jose Ramirez 3, not Francisco Lindor 4,

Tray Turner 4, Lindor 5, and then Jose Martinez 6, sorry. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Tray Turner, Lindor, and Jose, J.D. Martinez. Scott, you're right up about this draft was largely about Trey Turner going forward. head of Lador. You didn't like it. Well, that was going to be the most eye-catching thing. He's kind of the one. The Trey Turner pick is what really threw the wrench

and the finally oiled machine that is the first round. And look, a year ago, Trey Turner, pick four, wouldn't have even raised an eyebrow. But at that point in time, we were thinking he had like 70 steel potential because that's what we were projecting the

totals out over full season. He was coming off in a tree-played deer. Well, the Nationals had a new manager last year. They didn't let him run as much. He still finished tops in the National League in steals, but it was closer to 40. And considering he's not a standout really in anything else, except maybe runs just because of where he bats in the lineup, I don't think that's where he need to be drafting him. I'm fine with him late in the first round, but there are some really big bats you're passing

up to take him forth overall. And it really just comes down to stolen bases. And we went over this before last year, and he was kind of. of a disappointment. He was still very good, but he hasn't developed into the complete hitter that we thought he would. And so if it's the difference between 40, 44, 45 steals and 60, I think that's the difference between Trey Turner being an early first rounder and honestly, maybe being a second rounder. He could get back there, right? I mean, we're not going to, not going to bury him. I mean, he had 21 steals in 66 games after the All-Star break for what that's worth.

I think it's entirely lineup I think it's entirely lineup based 43 steals for him based on what he's done in his career he's played 220 games as a lead off hitter he's stolen 100 bases that's basically right around a 70

steel pace he's batted 90 he started 90 games at second in the spot second in the lineup and he's stolen 17 bases that that to me

There's a pretty big sample size there that if he's hitting lead off, he's going to steal a lot of bases. And if he's not, he'll still be among what the league leaders did last year, but I think it puts a cap on his ceiling. And I don't think he can be a top five player without it. Okay.

So after the top six, we have number seven. No one Aronado. Scott took Jose Altovae. I was praying he would make it to me at 10, but he didn't. Altuve 8 And then I was praying that Scherzer would make it to me

at 10, but he didn't. He went 9th. And then I took Christian Yellich 10. Which? Hold on. Let me read 11 and 12. Harper 11, Breggman 12.

I guess the only thing I'll say about Yelich, there's not one player who went after him that I could say, I definitely should have taken this guy over Christian Yelich. Because he is going to help you in five categories.

He's going to be great in batting average, hopefully runs. He's not going to be great in steals or homers. Well, he stole 22 bases last year, so that's, I mean, a 20 steel guy. No, but how many great base dealers are there, particularly ones that help you in other categories? I spent about 20 minutes, 30 minutes crunching Christian Yellich numbers after I took him on Friday. I did that on Saturday, just to see if it was such a crappy pick. and I basically came away with this. He has to hit 30 or more home runs for him to return first round value.

It's that simple to me. You guys agree? Disagree? I think he will if he hits third. I think he will return first round value if he had 30 more home runs. I have a tool that does that. I could probably punch the numbers in and see, but I'm skeptical he's going to hit 30 home runs again.

Yeah, I'm skeptical too. That's why I didn't like to pick. But I thought you made a good point. Like there's nobody who you, after him, who's like, this guy's clearly better. I mean, I have Bryce Harper, had a yellage, but I mean, Harper has his issues. Bregman's coming back from an, what is it, elbow surgery. Yep. Acuna, a lot of people are taking Acuna in the middle of the first round.

He didn't go until the second pick of round two. But there's a lot of question marks there, too. There's a lot of projection being factored in. to where those people are taking them. And I know Chris and I both are skeptical that he really is going to return first round value. Here's something that can make you feel better. His ADP and NFBC draft since January 1st is 7. Yellich?

Yeah. Harper's 17th, which is shocking. I'm going to tell you a guy that I think deserves to be in the consideration. He 100% is to me in an OBP league. Please don't call me a Homer because I thought he was going to be a huge bus last year. but I really think I'd take Aaron Judge in that spot if I could do it again, and Judge ended up going 20th overall. But I like Yelich more.

I think he backed it up. I mean, first of all, he's not a total dud and steals. Judge is like a 10-steel guy. He, final numbers weren't as good as they could have been, but first 99 games before his wrist injury, you take his 99 games before the wrist injury, give him 162. He's on pace for 285 batting average, 43 homers, 100 RBIs, 115 runs, 10 steals.

947 OPS. So he to me is guaranteed 40 home runs, well over 200 RBIs and runs combined, and a respectable batting average, a great OBP. So I think he can be a first round pick, Aaron, Judge. If I were doing it again, I would have taken him and then you guys would have said it was the worst pick in the draft. No concern that each of his last two seasons

have kind of ended with either a lingering injury or the after effects of a serious injury? No. Because he had the shoulder issue in 2017, right? Yeah, and that came like a round of the All-Star break. And then broke his wrist last year. He got hit by a pitch, so no, I don't think so. I'm not.

I just think he has such a thin margin for error, so I'm still, like, I'm not as concerned about him this year as I was going into last year, but he strikes out so much that if he's just not hitting the ball as hard, you know, league leader type hard for whatever reason, it could still go bad for him. Yeah, I mean, it's what we've seen with Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stanton

and guys like that where... Chris Davis with a C. With a C. Yeah. Which is, you know, one of the closest analogs to what Aaron Judge has done with the really good Chris Davis seasons. But there's a lot of fluctuation between the good and the bad seasons. for those guys.

And, you know, Ryan Howard to, like, Ryan Howard's MVP season was basically what Aaron Judge did as a rookie. And he never did that again. And we saw some real fluctuation even before he fell off the map. So it's just, it's a high variance play. It's a good point. I would say that in an OBP league, he's a lot safer. Sure. Okay, so let's go to round two.

Machado, Acuna, Sale, DeGrom, Goldschmidt, Trevor Story Machado Ocuna Sail DeGrom, Goldschmidt, Story, Verlander, Judge, Stanton, Blackman. Three outfielders back to back.

Freeman and Snell. Verlander, Judge, Stanton, Blackman, Freeman, Snell. Those are the last picks of round two. This is available on the website, by the way. If you have the opportunity to follow along, it might make things easier on you.

Guys, best pick, worst pick? What stands out to you? Chris, I'll throw it to you first. too. I don't really think there's a best pick or worst pick here. This is about as chalky as a second round can go. I think everyone, it's hard to find any fault with any of the picks. I think Storri and Snell are risky, just because they don't have the track record to back it up. But the upside is certainly there. I think Snell's probably the worst pick of the round for me. But I know a lot of people disagree and are just completely bought in. I just turn it on each other. I think he's a, you know, what we were talking about with Aaron Judge. I think Blake Snell could be that kind of pitcher. You know, the margin for error with him is really slim.

If he starts losing some of that newfound control and if he starts, you know, he goes to back to being just a four walks per nine guy instead of the three walks per nine guy he was last season, there's some real risk that that things could go south for him. I'm not saying I don't like him. I just probably like him more in the fourth round. So I'm never going to draft Blake Snow. Yeah, no, you're not 24th overall. That's for sure.

Chris took Corey Klober two spots after he took Blake Snell. Aaron Nola went right after that. Scott was there a pick that stands out? You know, we spent so much time talking about Trevor's story. We do. We do. I mean, that is, because this is the first time I think we've seen him go in round two, which I think he's more deserving of going in a lot of times.

We're talking about him because I'm talking about how good. if a pick he wasn't round three. My pick was Paul Goldschmidt at fifth pick of round two. And so I think you remember after last mock we did, I said, I'm going to start. I think the ideal start for somebody picking in the back half of the first round is Altuve 1, Goldschmidt 2 for position scarcity reasons. And that's how I started this draft. Altuvae round 1, Goldschmidt, round 2. I'm really happy with the way my team turned out.

This is my favorite team I've drafted so far. Do you think Goldschmidt is a base dealer? He only stole seven bases last year. I'm not counting on it. But, I mean, obviously he has that in his history. So it's even another reason to be excited about him in round two. Let's go to round three. Andrew Benintendi, Corey Kluber, Aaron Nola, Juan Soto,

Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo. So I'll read them six at a time and then I'll repeat them. Benintendi, Kluber, Nola, Soto, Baez, Rizzo. Those are picks 25 through 30. Witt Merrifield, Kairis Davis, Starling Marte, Carlos Correa, Chris Bryant, and Trevor Bauer. Then the final six picks of round three are Merrifield, Chris Davis, Starling Marte, Carlos Correa, Chris Bryant, and Trevor Bauer. This round was anything but normal, I guess.

Like this round much more interesting than round two, Scott picks that stand out to you is either really good or really bad. I don't know that I had the same reaction you did. I thought it was pretty... Really? Yeah. Okay, okay. I think I said it wrong. Because it's just, there are a lot...

If we had a conversation about the 12 guys in round two and a conversation about the 12 guys in round three, like each one by one, the round three conversations would take like an hour longer. Oh, okay. So interesting players being taken. Yeah, they're much more interesting players. I think Carlos Corray, your pick in round three is my least favorite of the round. Oh, what? What? I was the best pick.

I just think shortstop is so deep. And there's a lot of risks taking a guy who had a season wrecked by a back issue. You know, back, those are tricky. Those can linger for years. So I obviously it could turn out great for you. he could end up being a value here. We've seen him be a first round pick in the past. It's just not a risk I'm willing to take in round three.

So that was probably my least favorite. I took Chris Davis, K.Riss Davis, two picks earlier. And I was at the time really regretting it, thinking it was probably going to be my worst pick of the draft. I was debating between him and Starling Marte, who went with the very next pick. But I didn't really want Marte, because I hoped to get out of Alberto Mondesie in round four,

which, by the way, I did. But it turned out okay because I got Mondecyne, because I was able to make up for Kaira's batting average later. But I don't love it. He is obviously an elite power hitter, but the fact he's confined to DH only this season, that makes it a little harder to justify taking him so early. All right, Chris, thoughts on round three?

I obviously don't like the Andrew Ben and Tendi Piss. at the first pick of the third round. I think that's obvious. Heath wants him on his team. That's the only chance he's going to get him picking 12th or set first. Team Trees. I guess you have to reach,

but I just, I don't think Benintendi, I don't think there's the, the latent potential for Benintendi to take this huge step forward that Heath does. So, um, I disagree with that pick. I don't love the, Aaron.

I think we might be getting a little overzealous on Aaron Nola. He was the sixth starting pitcher taken. He's the sixth starting pitcher in overall ADP. I'm not sure. Scott, what do you think? Number six starting pitcher, Aaron Nola? I was trying to do the meme of the guy who looks like

Carrie Yules, but isn't him, you know, the blinking guy. I was trying to make that face. Not a clue. Because I was, well, because Chris was so high on Aaron Nola last year. I actually kind of agree with that. He's scarier to me even Snell because he had Babbat Bannholm run luck last year. I don't really have a problem with him going in round three, but maybe it's a little different order than I'd take the starting pitchers.

By the way, Ben Intendi is going to bat leadoff in 2019. He hits second mostly last year. He will bat lead off. Mookie Betts will bat second. I think we actually have an email about that, which I plan to read on tomorrow's show. All right, we're done with round three. Yeah, I don't think that really changes his outlook much.

Is Kerry Yules how you say that guy's name? No, I think it's Ellis. That's who you're talking about? That's how it's spelled, but I don't think that's how it said. No, Princess Bride. Yeah, I think that is how it said. It's actually pronounced Fred Sabbath. It's a common mistake.

How do you pronounce? All right, I'm going to Google it. How do you pronounce Carrie Ellis? Okay, we'll figure it out. So let's go to round four. Oh, shut up, Chris. Round four. I'm fine, thank you.

Garrett Cole, Clayton Kirshaw, Vladimir Guerrero, Sr. Cody Bellinger, Adelberto Mondesie, Anthony Rendon. That's your first six. Garrett Cole, Kershaw, Guerrero, Bellinger, Mondesie, Rendon. Oh, wait, did I go too far? Cole Kirschaw Guerrero, Bellinger, Modesty, Rendez. That's half the rant. Okay.

That's half the rant. Then we had the picks I mentioned at the top of the show. Severino, Reese Hoskins, Walker Bueller, Noah Cindergarde, Lorenzo Cain, and Carpenter. That would be Severino, Hoskins, Bueller, Cain, and Carpenter. Okay. How do we feel about these picks? We are getting way over our skis on Walker Bueller. Well, that's, yeah, that's kind of why I like Sanarino in Cindergarde because they went right around him.

Yeah, like, I get it. The talent is great, but is the talent better than Noah Cindergards? Like, is the stuff better than Noah Cindergards? I don't think there's, I think it might be as good. But even that's asking a lot. Cindergarde Obties has injury issues, but Walker Bueller's, what, three years removed from Tommy Johnson. surgery and has, you know, a big innings jump ahead of him. I think there's a chance that we get a couple of Phantom 10-day DL stints for him.

So the best case scenario for Sindergarde, I think, is a lot better than it is for Walker Bueller. And I'm not sure he's any safer. Carrie Elwis, by the way, is how you pronounce it. Scott, your thoughts on round four. Yeah, I just saw an interview. I'm Perry Elwis. I think I'm going to be the high guy of this group on Bueller, but I agree.

go ahead of Severino or Cinderguard. I don't like the Matt Carpenter pick in round four, particularly in a Roto League where the walks, you're not going to get any credit for the walks because I feel like that's really the only thing pushing him into high-end territory in a great, you know, in a good healthy scenario for him. Cody Bellinger in round four also seems like a very optimistic pick. Certainly has that kind of upside. but he was nowhere near that production a year ago.

My favorite pick's probably mine, honestly. Mondesey. I think he should probably go in round three in a standard five-by-five league. You're going to tell me that Mondesie is a better pick than my pick of Vladimir Guerrero, who you have called the greatest hitting prospect since Babe Ruth? Yeah, because it's third base and it's so deep. And I think there are plenty of... You're still going to be very happy at third base if you wait longer than this place.

to fill it. Scott, can I ask you question? Adelberto Mondescy is going to carry me in steals for fourth round round price tag. Usually those kind of guys around what a round two. Scott. Yeah. Who's more likely to be playing in AAA on June 1st? Roel Monter, Adelberto Montese or Vladimir Guerrero? Which junior? I don't think either are. Answer the question. I actually think Guerrero's more likely to, just because the Blue Jays haven't called him up yet. Mondesie is a great defender, and the royals have nobody else. So why would they send him to AAA? All right.

I want to say one thing about Bellinger. Because he might not be good at baseball. Bellinger, I think it's basically going to come down to. Can he hit lefties? Because he was terrible against lefties last year. He batted 226. He slugged 376. But for Bellinger in 2017, he was outstanding against lefties.

He was basically as good against lefties as he was against righties. So I said, looked at his minor league history. Has he struggled against lefties? Well, at some stops he was awful. At some stops he was great. I don't think I have a great feel on Cody Bellinger and whether or not he could hit lefties. Why does this matter?

Well, this I think, is something Chris could look into and in terms of how much the pitchers have changed, this sounds like a Chris Tower's assignment, in the NL West. But last year, the top four teams in baseball, in a bats against lefties were the Giants, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies. The Padres were.

sixth. So all five NL West teams were in the top six at bats against lefties. The year before that, one of the teams was like 13th, but the other four, including the Dodgers, were all like top eight. So I thought that was so fascinating. He faced so many lefties, and it's two years in a row for the Dodgers. If Bellinger hits lefties, he's going to be awesome. If he doesn't, that's too early for him. Round five. Gary Sanchez. George Springer. Daniel Murphy, Ozzie Albiz, Carlos Carrasco, Eugenio Suarez. Gary Sanchez, George Springer, Daniel Murphy, Ozzie Albies, Carlos Carasco, a Eugenio Suarez.

Next six. Corbin, Granky, Bogarts, Votto, Clevenger, Corey Seeger. Corby, Blagoz, Vado, Clevenger, Corey Seeger. Chris, standout picks. good or bad in round five. Gosh, I don't know if there's any standouts here. This is another round that seems pretty chalky. All right, well, I can ask you.

I don't love, and it was my pick. I'm not sure what to think about George Springer. Yeah. Yeah, not a great category guy. Yeah, like I don't think he's going to help you in stolen bases, but I actually do think he could be a really good four category player if everything comes together. And we haven't seen a season where it's all come together for him. So I think there might be still a little more upside there than we think.

But if not, he's sort of ordinary. I think it's worth noting that I don't think there was an outfielder drafted. You took Springer 50th, and the next outfielder off the board was Tommy Fam at 66. So when I see something like that, it makes me feel like you got the end of a tier, which is usually a good thing. But I think Daniel Murphy, going 51 overall, needs to really be discussed. He's obviously second-based eligible. He'll be first-based eligible for the Rockies. He's on the Rockies.

Still, it feels a little early to me, but I see the reason. It's earlier than he's been going, yeah. I see the reason for excitement. He was very good late, and he's obviously on Colorado. The dude has always hurt. Yeah, no, there's, I mean, if he's healthy, he's winning the batting title in Colorado, just the batta ball profile in that environment. It's just like a match made in batting average heaven, but it's a big F. And, you know, him going before Scooter Jeanette is hard for me to justify.

He went a round before him. I think that should probably be flipped where Jeanette's going around ahead of Murphy, just for the health concerns. Okay. So I agree with you there. All right, Scott. What pick or picks stood out? Oh, pick what picks stood out, round five. So obviously I talked about your Votto pick already.

I like that. Corey Seeger in round five, again, it seems too early to me. Shortstop has a lot of depth. And let me see if anybody sank there. Maybe Shortstuffs just all went really early this draft. You know what? Yeah, that may have happened. Yeah, that may have happened.

There may have just been a earlier run. run on short steps than had happened in our previous mock drafts. So I'll go easy on the Corey Seeker pick. All right, we can move on. I think it's a great pick. 60th overall for Corey Seeger? I mean, we were taking 15th overall a year ago. And he's not, I don't think we expect him to be a different player, assuming he's healthy.

So that seems like a nice injury discount. And he was being overdrafted last year. I will point out that because our last podcast, we talked about how I wanted to draft three pitchers in the first six rounds, I think it was. I took my first tier in round five, Zach Granky, who I consider an ace, so I barely got one from that group, but I did, and I'm happy about that.

Okay. Yeah, I was going to say that Corbin, Granky, and Clevenger all go in the second half of round six, and I feel like one of them is going to be a huge bust this year. But you could probably say that about any three pitchers. My money would be on Corbyn of the three. Oh, wait, it was Clevenger part of that group? Either way, I'd say Corbyn has the most plus potential.

All right, let's finish the show with emails. We'll pick up, that's 60 picks. I feel comfortable with that. Let's finish the show with some emails here at Fantasybaseball. At cbsi.com. And where are we here? Where are my damn emails? Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

Here we go. Hello, emails. Brando. His name is Brandon, but he had a typo on his own name, so I wanted to shame him for that. Brando from South Dakota.

10-team mixed-head-head categories league. I can keep up to six, and those become my first six picks. So with that said, who am I throwing back? There are eight players, so you have to throw two back. Gary Sanchez,

Anthony Rizzo, Jose Ramirez. I'm going to go ahead and remove Jose Ramirez from this list. Trey Turner. Not because you're throwing back. I'm going to go ahead and remove Trey Turner. Right, they're obvious. Oh, because you're keeping it.

Okay. So now we're down to six and pick four to keep and two to throwback. Gary Sanchez, Anthony Rizzo, George Springer, Reese Hoskins, Michael Conforto, and Jack Flaherty. There's not even a question for me. It'd be nice to have a pitcher, but I don't think Jack Flaherty is such a camp. miss guy that you're turning down any of these guys.

So it's Conforto and Flaherty. That's your own putting back. Yeah. I don't think there's even a debate for me. No, I mean, the only debate was should you keep less than six, but I don't think you should. The weakest of the ones you're keeping is Gary Sanchez, around a 10-team league. I think you still keep them. Okay, from Jeff. It is rather odd to me how many people have a hard time differentiating between a player

no longer being what he once was and a player being fantasy relevant. One stark example of this is Andrew McCutcheon. There's no doubt he's not competing for MVP anymore. However, he is far from washed up. McCutcheon hit 20 home runs and about at 255 last year. The overwhelming majority of those games came in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the big leagues. Is it crazy to think McCutcheon's average at home runs will go up playing in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia? I'm thinking 270 plus and 30-plus home runs is a very real possibility for McCutcheon,

which makes him an absolute bargain for where he's going. And I would just say to Jeff, McCutcheon went 149th overall in our roto draft. And that's about where he's going in NFBC. So I think that's a pretty good place to peg him. And I think he's a nice value there, yeah. I think Ryan Ron's another more extreme one. I think he's going a lot later. But, you know, the skills have not deteriorated as much as the perception of them.

And I think that is a real. I think fighting perception versus actual value is a real thing. Yeah, I think McCutcheon's Best skill is His ability to get on base So does your league count that? That's the first thing you need to know with McCutcheon But also the ballpark matters

I wish we had a bigger sample in Yankee Stadium He only played 11 games in Yankee Stadium He did hit two home runs, one double and one triple He had a 220 ISO But he only batted 225 So I wish we had to go I think so though he's going to be great for him Pittsburgh's not such a great place to hit either.

It doesn't have as strong a reputation as like San Francisco. It's not as bad as San Francisco, but it's not good. Leftfield's pretty big out there. Philadelphia is obviously a great place to hit. And just two years ago, before the year in San Francisco, McCutcheon hit 28 home runs. So it's, you know, if you put setting over under a 30, I'm taking the under, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility. All right. Luke in Illinois, want to get your quick.

thoughts on a rule change. We're going to be changing a win from seven points to five points and a quality start from three points to five points. Essentially a win and a quality start still nets you ten points, but they are even in both are five points. And yeah, okay, that's it. Not sure how much this matters to you. That's kind of the gist of it.

He also did something with losses, I think. I forget it. So what do you think? Seven points for wins, three points for quality starts. that's the standard, but Luke is changing to five for each. I applaud it. It's all right, I guess. I mean, I feel like that's kind of rewarding the same thing twice over.

Because, you know, if you're getting the innings for a quality start, if you're preventing the runs to get a quality start, that's obviously going to help the scoring. But the current standard is also. Yeah, just not as much. It's fine. I don't have any real objections. to it. All right, this is from Max.

I've got the first overall pick in a keeper NL-only stratomatic. Stratomatic. Stratow, is that what's called? Stratow League. Yeah. For the first season, we will use player cards from 2018. Should I get Yelich or DeGrom

to cash in on their good 2018 years or go for someone like Acuna? Scott, I feel like you have more experience with this kind of league than I do, right? Well, I've never played it. Okay, I've never played one either. I mean, I don't know.

Yelich and DeGrom are both young enough that you're going to be happy with them for several years. I generally think when you're looking at a dynasty or Keeper League, unless there's a 10-year gap in age, or unless one of the guys is well into his 30s, take the guy who's better now. Yeah, I mean, Acuna is obviously really good, too. and it would just depend so much on the specifics of how it works to keep players. Like if you're keeping a cuckoonia for cheaper, then obviously that swings the tips the scales in his favor. But if it's all on equal terms, I might just stick with the reigning Cy Young MVP winner.

Last one is from Tony Bag of Donuts in New Bayesian, Massachusetts. I'm trying to delve a little deeper into advanced stats this offseason as I set my rankings. Would you briefly address war as a stat? And could you explain why Matt Chapman and Kyle Freeland finished higher in war than Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Christian Yellich in 2018? Why did Matt Chapman and Kyle Freeland finish higher than those studs? Kyle Freeland had a really good season in terms of run prevention. So that's a pretty easy explanation, especially in the park he pitched in. Matt Chapman is maybe the best defensive player in baseball right now.

and he had a really good season as a batter once you account for the fact that the Coliseums a really tough place to hit him. He's, I think in terms of skill set, there's not that big of a difference between him and Nolan Aeronado. I think most of the difference is where they hit. Okay, guys, we're out of here.

Thank you very much for listening. We will be back either tomorrow or Wednesday to talk a little bit more about this draft and read some emails at FantasyBaseball at cbsi.com. Talk to you then.