Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/06: Bounceback Candidates and More Roto Review (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 7, 2019

Before we break down some players who are looking to bounce back, let's discuss three more rounds of our 12-team Roto mock draft. The best and worst picks of Rounds 6-8 with discussions on Scooter Gennett (3:45), Eloy Jimenez (8:40), Victor Robles (15:15), David Price and more ... News and notes (19:30) as we check in on the latest free agency and trade rumors plus Brad Boxberger with KC and the possible expansion of the Designated Hitter! ... Emails about Eddie Rosario (25:00), Stephen Strasburg (29:30) and some young Catchers (32:30). Then it's on to our bounceback candidates (34:00) as we look at the pros and cons of drafting guys like Gary Sanchez, Joey Votto, Brian Dozier, Dee Gordon and Kenley Jansen ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Hey, maybe 2018 was not your year. Maybe you didn't win any of your fantasy leagues. Well, it's time to bounce back.

That's what we're talking about on today's show. Who's going to bounce back in 2019? That'll be in the second half of our show. And when we say who's going to bounce back, we're not talking about you. We're talking about Chris Bryan and Gary Sanchez and Udarvish and Carlos Martinez. Is it going to happen?

We'll discuss. We're also going to go through a little bit more of our roto draft. Some news and notes and your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I am Adam Azer if you're new to the show. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. We are five days a week during the season,

and pretty soon will be five days a week in the preseason. as we get closer to spring training. Scott White is here. Hello, Scott White. Hello, Adam. How's it going? It's going fine.

All right. Hello, Chris Towers. What up! And you are doing well? Yeah, I'm good. Okay, good. You're looking at all. That was very terrible.

I mean, I'm hoping not everybody's listening to headphones. I apologize, of course, to our users who are listening on headphones. But it was just your car stereo or like a boombox? It was fine. That was Heath Cummings telling Chris things were terrible. I was wondering after that intro, it made me think, could we get a drop of Lucas's, is that your intro? Just play after your intro?

Probably. Somebody could put that. Let's just be the intro every day. Into a new theme song, I'm sure. All right, let's talk about that roto draft. So we did the first five rounds on Monday's show. We gave you a best and worst pick from those rounds. and Heath was not on the show, so hi Heath.

Welcome to the road-out drafts. I assume all of the best picks were mine. Actually, what you missed. So Scott and I are more aligned philosophically, so we call ourselves Team Scam. Chris and Heath are more aligned philosophically, so we call them Team Kreeh. Team Kreth is falling apart at the seams. Chris criticized almost every one of your picks. It was awesome.

That's not true. That sounds like. Chris. There were several picks I didn't say anything about. Okay, round six. Round six is a roto draft and closers. You know, it's tough to get three. You're lucky if you have two that you really like. So Blake Trinan was the first pick of round six, followed by Gene Seguer.

D. Gordon, bounce back candidate, cross our fingers. J.T. Reaamuto, Scooter Jeanette, and Tommy Fam. That's the first six picks of round six. Trinon, Seguerra, D. Gordon, Reaumuto, Jeanette, and Tommy Fam. Last six picks of round six, Edwin Diaz, Stephen Strasbourg, Jameson, Tion, Jose Abraeu, James Paxton, and Carlos Martinez. So again, that's Edwin Diaz, Strasbourg, Tyone, Jose Abraeu, Paxton, and Carlos Martinez. We actually have three of the bounceback candidates that I wanted to talk about in D. Gordon, actually just two and Carlos Martinez

but anyway forget about that Heath why don't you tell us a pick that stands out good or bad in round six James Paxton was awful no as Chris is pretty good actually yeah no I like that okay I'm pretty concerned about Dee Gordon

and his bounce back status and I'm pretty concerned about Gene Seguera so I guess those two going there at the start of the sixth round worry me a little bit I don't love Scooter Jeanette all that much in the sixth round It was the middle infielders that really bothered me. Interesting.

I took Scooter Genet here, and I thought it was one of my better value picks, actually. You know, maybe by just a round. But I was thrilled. It was actually the second, second basement I took because I took L2Vane round one, but I figure, shoot, here's a chance for me to fill middle infield and get a nice boost in batting average. I better take it. His current ADP is 90th overall.

Well, I think that's not good. But you should go earlier than that. I don't think so. Okay. Well, okay. I haven't. In Arbach drafts, he hasn't gone later than this that I've seen. Why is it 90th overall?

He had a bad second half he was dealing with an injury, right? Jeanette. I mean, I think he finished pretty strong. He, well, he hit seven home runs. He has faded in the second half each of the last two years. His slash line after the All-Star break was 286, 333, 442. It was nothing special. His pre-All-Star game slash line, he had like a 900 OPS, 890.

Yeah, I mean, we could chop these numbers up a million different ways because he had, you know, from August 1st to the end of the season, he hit 297 with six homers. Well, that's only six home runs in two months. the power. Look, I don't get, I guess I was saying, why is he going 90? if that doesn't make sense, he should be going earlier. What are people seeing in Scooter Jeanette that they don't like? I'm thinking the late season struggles had something to do with it, but I really think it was

like an elbow injury or something he was playing through, right? Yeah, there was a little something going on. Here's a red flag. According to baseball references, or baseball savants expected stats, he was the luckiest player in baseball who had more than 600 plate appearances based on their batted ball data. He should have they say he should have hit 258

slugged 405. I don't know. They sound like a bunch of weasels over there. I mean, he's talking shots. His batted ball data was basically the same as the year before, right? Well, it's a different batted ball data. No, it's it, I'm looking at 2017 and

2018. It's virtually identical. Okay, let's move on from that. It's been a stud second basement two years in a row. Yeah, Scott, I don't know why everybody's so low. You got him 65th overall. If I could just say one thing about Dee Gordon, and I'll save him for a little bit later, he got hurt really early.

And so before his D.L stint, 45 games, he batted 304 with 16 steals. But he played even part of that with a fractured big toe. And so his first 34 games before he hurt his toe, he had 15 steals in 34 games and he batted 353. Of course, I don't expect him to bat 3.53, but D. Gordon was D. Gordon before his injury, and then he was terrible the rest of the season. I'll let you guys chime in on that later.

Somebody give me a good pick from round six. A good pick from round six. I think the fact that Blake Trinen went swooping in and then taking Edwin Diaz after him is pretty good move. I mean, I feel like it really shouldn't be much doubt that Diaz is the first closer. I do have Trinan second, but I think in terms of provenness, there's a gap there. And if Jeanette hadn't been there for me, I was going to take Diaz. They were the two in my cue. I just, I have a tough time praising a closer in round six.

Like, it's fine, but I don't think it's praiseworthy. I think J.T. Orohmuto is probably the best pick in this round. Yeah, especially since he went like a round and a half after Gary Sanchez. Okay, let's go to round seven. Round seven, Craig Kimbril, to Heath, Justin Turner, to Chris, a roll this Chapman, Matt Olson, Eloy Jimenez, and Yasio Pueig. Kimbril, Turner, Chapman, Matt Olson, Eloy Jimenez, Yassio Pueig.

That's your first six, followed by Mitch Hanigur, Hermann Marquez, Eddie Rosario, David Price, Will Myers, and Wilson Ramos. Hanager, Marquez, Rosario, David Price, Will Myers, Wilson Ramos. What's a bad pick or a good pick or a pick that stands out? Anyone, feel free to yell it out. I don't like a lot of this round, but I do like Elohimenez.

Okay. I think he has a chance to be just as good as guys like Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto. And he goes 77th. I feel like he would go two rounds earlier in a world where Vladimir Guerrero doesn't exist because we could put all the hype on Aloi Jimenez, and he's deserving a pipe. So I don't disagree with liking that pick. One that stands out to me as just being awful is Matt Olson, who wasn't going as early as round seven last.

Last year when people were hopeful he could deliver this 50 homer season, be one of the games elite power hitters. There's still a lot of power there, but in the majors and minors both, it has been inconsistent. And it looks like last year he really got hurt by his home park. I'm not confident he's going to be even a 30 homer guy, and he doesn't bring much else to the table other than power. Okay. I agree because of the home park. It's probably too early, but just looking at the stack has data for him, he is a legitimate elite power hitter.

It may not show up because of plate discipline and because of the O.Docco Coliseum, but there's a chance that it really plays up. I do like Olson to be better than he was last year. I just don't like him. I agree with Scott in terms of this is too early. If I may, he hit one more. home run on the road than he did at home last year.

And the difference was really batting average. He batted 227 at home and 266 on the road. And a lot of the problem was, he had a 47% hard contact rate and a 16% home run to fly ball rate. If anybody's going to be at 25% to 35% to 30% in terms of home run to fly a ball, it should be him. Yeah, and he was number four in average exit velocity overall, number seven in average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives.

I also want to throw out. I didn't like the Adam Azer David Price pick. Chris hates David Price. I don't get why everybody likes him again. By the way, we were talking about Matt Olson earlier with all the stat cast stuff in case you missed that. David Price, look, he finished strong. I think he may have gotten over sort of a mental hurdle in Boston.

He had his worst peripheral since 2009. Okay. He was really bad early. 11 start run where he had a 2.25 ERA, but he barely averaged six innings per start. Also, he's not a workhorse anymore. Okay, I guess I have to dive deeper into it. I don't know, like, okay, the pitchers that went after Price, Madison,

Bumgarner, then I took Jack Flaherty. That was a great pick. Yeah, this is the next row. I think Price and Bungarner should probably go together. I just think they should go a little later. I think Bumgarner has a lot more upside. Then Price? Yes.

Absolutely. I'm having trouble convincing myself to like Madison Bumgarner at all. Bumgarner's still going consistently deep into games and he's like, what, five years younger than Price? If one of them's going to turn it around and pitch better in 2019, it's Madison Bumgarner. I guess I see Heath's point that they're pretty similar. But I also think Bumgarner has the better chance of just the floor completely. I think based on the way starting the point we are within the starting pitcher rankings, it's fine to take price here. It's not somebody I would be excited to take.

This is probably just a stretch of starting pitchers I'm going to skip. But I think he's the appropriate names. Jack Flaherty was a phenomenal pick on the next round, Adam. Oh, thank you. Especially behind those two. Why don't we go? By horrible pick of price made by Flaherty pick so much better. Let's go to round eight.

I think this will probably be our last round that we'll go through. Conforto, Bumgarner, Flaherty, Kenley Janssen, Joey Gallo, and A.J. Pollock. Confordo, Bumgarner, Flaherty, Jansen, Gallo, and Pollack, followed by Paraza, Victor Robles, Aaron Hicks, Marcelo Zuna, Glaber Torres, and Michael Brantley, Jose Parraza, Robles, Hicks, Ozuna, Torres, and Brantley. I guess what stands out to me is we are at an uncertain time, like, in our lives.

No, in the draft, it's a lot of guys that you can't feel great about, in my opinion, in this round, as we are, picks 85 through 96. There's only one pick I like here, and it's mine. Well, I think there's only one pick I like, and it's my. Hold on, so Scott took Joey Gallo. Are you turning on Joey Gallo? Hold on, hold on. He was your baby boy. Scott took Joey Gallo, which I think is really worth noting that Joey.

Gallo went a round after Matt Olson. If you're going to take Matt Olson, just take Joey Gallo first. Sure. Scott likes Gallo, Chris likes Labor Torres, his pick. Everybody likes Jack Flaherty, my pick. So who did he take it this round? Okay, no, I guess that.

I like a lot of this round. I like Conforto at the start of round eight. I think it's a good place to get him. I love the Flaherty pick. I like Scott's Joey Gallo pick. I like, I think this is a good spot in Roto for both Jose Parraza and Victor Robles. I think those were good pick.

I think the Pollock pick's good. I don't know about the Pollock pick. I love my Michael Brantley pick. I'm scared of Marcelo Zuna right now. Yeah, there's some really weird stuff going on with Marcelo Zunas recovery from shoulder surgery. Basically, nobody from the team has seen him since the end of last season. And, like, Yadiyam Alina has talked about, like, he talked to him on the phone, but the GM a couple weeks ago was sounding very concerned about. Marcel Ozuna because they just haven't seen him.

They don't know what shape he's in. Hey, real quick on Ozuna, because he's in the bounceback candidate section. What did you say Matt Olson's hard contact and home run to fly ball rate was? 47% and 16%. Yeah, so Ozuna was 45.2% and 13.9%. So it's another guy who probably should have hit more home runs. He hit 23 last year. Okay, so interesting round.

I didn't say they were bad picks, but they're gambles. I mean, Robles is obviously a gamble. Torres, I guess he's a gamble. Conforto's a gamble. Plarity's a gamble. They're gambles. No, they're definitely gambles. I'm not really sure totally where I stand with Robles.

Because I had been thinking, okay, the one thing I know for sure I can count on him for in his rookie season is stolen bases. he might hit for average, he might eventually become a pretty good source of power. But stolen bases should translate immediately and definitely need those. But looking over his minor league track record, he didn't have a great success rate in stolen bases. And it's not like he had one of those, you know, he had, I think he had 1.30 steel season, and usually he was in the 20. So it's not like he was just running wild down there. He was running some, and he's fast, but it wasn't with a great success rate, and it wasn't as often as I was assuming it was. So, I don't know.

I don't know that he is going to be good for much more than 20, 25 steals. It is worth noting he still 37 in 110 games, 27 and 114 and 19 in 52 games in 2018. Those aren't, but look at this. Look how many times he was caught. Yeah, I, I, Wasn't? Yeah. Yeah, Chris.

I was just responding to one part of your point. Okay. Just in terms of, I mean, if we compare his steel total, like usually when we think, oh, a guy has speed, you look at his mildly track record and there's a bunch of 30 steel seasons. I understand they don't play as many games in the minors as they do in the majors, but it just, it strikes me as not a very, the total strike me is not very impressive. And I made a point, I don't know, a couple shows ago, I think. about my thoughts on outfield. I really don't like it. And when you see a guy like Aaron Hicks going in this round

and taking a gamble on Confordo and Robles, I mean, this is a five outfielder league as well. Also, Marcelo Zuna, Michael Brantley going this round, A.J. Pollack going in this round. Joey Gallo is outfield eligible, right? Gallo? Yes. Yeah.

Yeah. Outfield first base. This is a heavy outfield round. Did you guys feel like you needed to get at least your second outfielder at this point? This is round eight. I'm trying to see if it was my second outfielder. I think it was my first. Joey Gallo was my first.

So I'm not as concerned about outfield as you are. I feel like there's a lot of sleepers there. There are always a lot of sleepers there. And I feel like you're particularly in a rotolese. where there are so many hitter spots to fill. There's always going to be a few spots where you're kind of just hoping for the best, and it doesn't make a big difference to me, whether that's outfield or middle infield.

Actually, it seems like there's more ways to work with it if it is outfield, just because there are so many players who play the outfield. So I'd almost rather that be a little weaker. Yeah, you're right. I mean, there are always guys you can plug in on waivers. Okay, so news and notes, a few emails, and some bounce back candidates right after this. To the news, the Miami Marlins signed Curtis Granderson to a minor league deal. I assume you guys are doing an NL-only draft soon.

Is that coming up on Friday? It is coming up Friday. Is Curtis Granderson going to be a part of that draft? Will he be drafted? No. I would assume so. Yeah. Oh.

Okay. Why not? I mean, the guys who get drafted in NL-only or A-L-only leagues are pretty putrid. They usually... Like, Cameron Mabin was someone we were definitely drafting in NL-only leagues last year. In Roto. This is a head-to-head, so it's three outfielders. It's only 10 teams, and Granderson isn't a full-time player, and he's not very good.

So I... I... Stop talking bad about Chris's team. Yeah, he might be the best hitter on the Marlins after they trade. Ray, show some respect for Neil Walker. Okay, true. Also not a full-time player. Speaking of Rayamuto, the Phillies are showing interest, the Padres are showing interest,

and we just wanted to end up in a hitter's park. The Reds have shown interest, so we'll let you know what happens. The Iraqis are optimistic about signing Nolan Aronado to a long-term deal, which is big news for dynasty owners. He's in his last, well, he's on a one-year deal right now. The Giants met with Bryce Harper, according to John Hayman. No That would be

awful That would be so bad for Bryce I think you almost have to knock him out of the second round Really? It's such a bad place for left-handed power I don't think people quite realize How bad Oracle Park is for

Left-handed hitters because Barry Bonds was there But it's It's really bad The royals are closing in on a deal for Brad Boxberger, according to John Hayman. Do you think he will beat out Willie Peralta to be the closer? I don't think either is very good, but I think Boxburger is a little better, so it's possible. Okay.

The National signed Jeremy Helixen. Any interest in Jeremy Helixen? I'm interested from the perspective that I think you could have made a case for Joe Ross as a deep sleeper, and this is at least competition for him. I don't know for sure that he's going to bump him out. But it would be sad if he did. And the designated hitter could be coming to an NL Park near you soon, but probably not this year.

Probably not 2019. Oh, just enough with pitchers hitting. It needs to happen. It's going to be wonderful. So is anybody, am I the only one that likes pitchers hitting on this podcast? It's an objectively terrible thing. It does seem to be the prevailing opinion on Twitter. People kind of gravitate toward the same opinion on Twitter.

It's weird how that works, but it kind of happens with everything, and it seems to be, they seem to be congregating around DH and the NL would be good. But it does remove quite a bit of strategy from the game. And over the long slog of the baseball season, the times when a pitcher does something, worthwhile with the bat end up being some of the most memorable times i've heard that i've heard you make that argument i just don't care let's just do a home run derby for pitchers at the all-star game and we will get four or five times as many memorable moments as pitchers do in games

it's so bad gosh they're so bad at hitting now i mean yeah they'd hit like four home run that's about that's why that's why there's so much strategy to it because they you know the You have to weigh, gosh, this is like an automatic out, but it's a good pitcher. And, you know, obviously it affects how the other team approaches the lineup. You know what has a lot of strategy in baseball? Scott, shifts. I think this has a lot more. Like a six-year-old can execute a double shift or a double switch.

Well, I don't even care so much about the double switch. That's just one minor aspect of it. Like the entire way the opposing team approaches a lineup, knowing that there's this automatic out at the end. And the way a manager approaches his pitching staff, knowing I have to have a guy in the bullpen because the pitcher spot's going to be up fourth in this inning or whatever. Let's be clear.

It would change so much. You are waxing poetic about the strategy involved with dealing with an utterly incompetent person on your team. Yeah, it's not a good argument. Like someone who is like barely better than the average fan in the state. But he's competent in terms of preventing runs, which is why it creates an interesting dilemma. It's terrible. Not in the modern era.

I don't think it does anymore. It's everybody's pitching four in third, the third innings anyway. What an exaggeration that is. So a Twitter poll, should the NL have the designated hitter? We are underway. It's currently very close. Yes. Has.

Come on. Refresh, refresh. I'll let you know. Quick round of email. Yes, has 61% and no has 39%. Yes, starting to pull away. Okay, a quick round of emails. This is from Ian. Why no love for Eddie Rosario?

I feel like he's the best player from last season that hasn't been discussed on any off-season podcasts. We'd love to hear the crew's thoughts on Eddie Rosario in particular. Though as he helped me in both my leagues last year, I am wondering how he will be valued this year. It was such a steep decline over the course of the season. Yeah. Like there was a point in, I think about June, where if you looked at his last 365 days, Eddie Rosario looked like the kind of outfield bat that should go in like round two or something.

And then it just all fell apart over the last three months. He had a total of six home runs at about 250. so much of his production is tied to his batting average, and that's always a tight rope walk. And if he's not producing power, it really limits his mixed league appeal. He did play through a calf injury for most of the last month of the season. It's worth noting, but there are some real red flags in his profile.

He had a ton of infield fly balls last year, become increasingly pull heavy, swing, straight rate went back up. He swings in a ton of pitches out of the zone. It feels like a profile that could get exposed. I will just say in defense of Eddie Rosario, and I don't love him. I think I was always a low guy on him last year. But it's two consecutive years of a near-290 average with mid-20s homers,

around 80 runs, around 80 RBI, and just shy a 10 stolen bases, with a good strikeout rate and pretty decent, even if there are troubling signs, they're pretty decent bad at ball data. I don't think he's going to be bad. Yeah, he's not a star. That's probably about what he is. I have him ranked similarly to Nick Castiano's.

I think Nick Castianos' bad at ball profiles a little better. It makes him a little less risky. But I think the upside is similar for the two. But, you know, there was a time not long ago, just a few months ago when I thought Rosario's upside was even higher than that. And in fairness, Rosario, his bad side, ball data would probably be as good as Castiano's if he played his home games in Detroit. Well, and Rosario is another guy with a great hard hit rate, 44.41% but 12% home run to fly ball rate.

So he probably, he possibly could have hit more home runs, you know. The infield fly ball rate is relevant there. Okay. All right, okay. But what was I going to say? Oh, yeah, he's just streaky. He's really streaky. So it might be.

Take that into account. Basically, like Scott said, the last half of 2017 and the first half of 2018, basically an 890 OPS. But he never walks, so he's worse in point leagues. I'll just tell you where Rosario's finished each of the last two years. 2017, he was the number 31 outfielder in points, and number 23 in Roto. And in 2018, he was 26th in points and 18th in Roto, so he's going to be better in a non-points league. email is from no name, sorry, but he says

Hey, Chase, Rubble, Rocky, and Marshall. Those are four of the six regular members of the Paul Patrol. That's right. Rubble on the double. I know you talk about Acuna not stealing as much if he hits in the middle of the order,

but what about Andrew Benintendi if he bats first? Will that affect Ben and Tendez's stolen base numbers? And he will likely lead off for the Red Sox. Do you think he will steal more bases. I looked into this over the last couple of seasons with the Red Sox. Basically, the only time that they've had a big gap in where the stolen bases come from

in the order was where Mookie Betts was batting. So if he bats third, they get a lot of stolen bases from the third spot. If he bats leadoff, they get a lot of stolen bases from the first spot. They're not a team like the Braves that has like a consistent history of guys not running depending on where they're at in the lineup. At least the Braves in the Snickrera. Yeah, in the Snickrera. I think it predates the Snickrera, but you just like to bring up the snickrera.

It makes me snickr. From Rosendo, should we draft Steven Strasbourg in the fourth or fifth round, or should we rank Strasbourg lower? It's kind of... It depends. I imagine in most leagues he's going to go later than that. In this mock draft, we did, it's a Roto League. He went in round six. but he is outside the elite tier for me.

I have him in the same tier as like, I think I'm with like the Mike Clevengers of the world. So I wouldn't want to reach for him. I've got him in the Paxton Severino tier. I think fifth round is fine. I have Severino and Paxton in different tiers. It is worth remembering that he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in 2017.

He only made 28 starts, and he's only made 30-plus starts twice. But the potential is still there for him to be as good or better than the Aaron Nolas of the world. So I'm just going to say this about Strasbourg, right? He's had a 346 ERA or worse in three of his last four years. The other year he had like 250 ERA or something, 252. my question is if you were just going to predict an ERA for a healthy Stephen Strasbourg

a guy who's at a 346 ERA or higher three of his last four years what would you predict a healthy Strasbourg ERA to be three three point two nine I'll go three four so I think you're too high Scott okay but he has a two ninety nine

FIP over the last four seasons come by I mean, I kind of went through it this afternoon because I knew I was going to read this email. And you know how good I am at creating narratives based on time, date. Oh, I love it. Yeah. Love it. Well, I'm not going to go through it all because it would take too long.

But if you kind of eliminate the starts that he made when he got hurt or his first start coming off the DL or when he was pitching with an injury at the beginning of the 2015 season because he had an ankle injury in spring training. So you're dealing with a four-start sample cycle cycle. I mean, he's amazing. He's incredible. But his numbers have been bogged down by these stretches or these one terrible, one or two terrible starts where he's pitching hurt. And I think it's deceiving.

I think a healthy Strasbourg is kind of almost like a healthy cinder guard. But I don't know that for a fact. The upside is like the one year he made 34 starts and through 200 innings with the 2017 run prevention. Okay, last. two more emails from Carl. I'm looking through catchers for my draft prep, trying to figure out how rookies like Jansen and Mejia could perform without having a lot of data.

Guys, how could Danny Jansen and Francisco Mejia perform this year? We do have a lot of data. It's not at the Major League level. Both of them in the minors had decent pop, great play discipline. The thing to keep in mind is the catchers tend to develop slower. they tend to take more time to

hit their stride at the major league level. I think there are obvious reasons for that. They have a lot more off-field responsibilities in between-inning responsibilities. So you probably shouldn't draft them for their upside this year. But take it in mind because Jansen could be a high-average,

decent pop kind of guy. He could be a top-five catcher this year. Right. I mean, there's so few catchers with upside that there comes a point where you might as well just take them and hope for the best. And that point is pretty much after the top eight are off the board. You might throw Cervelli in there as a ninth, particularly in a points league.

A lot of risk there, though. Yeah. They're both, Janssen and Mahia are both worth drafting as starters. And then, of course, Mahia has playing time concerns that might force you to hit the eject button in April. but you've got to take the chance on the upside because what comes after is pretty much yucky all around. And Jansen, I think, you talk about Cervali being the ninth in a points league. I mean, Jansen, he's got such good plate discipline in the minors.

He had basically one walk to strike out. He's a great OBP source, if he has a good batting average. He's a great walks source. So he'll be better in points leagues than a batting average Roto League. And now we go to bounce back candidates Because Marcel's question is about Zach Godley and Luis Castillo Any chance that Godley and Castillo

Can deliver this year Or are they just Jags? As in just a guy So I got a whole list But I'll start with that Because of the email from Marcel Godley and Castillo Who's got a better chance of bouncing back?

Castillo In fact, I like Castillo For a breakout this year He has the best one of the best swing of miss changeups in the game. And in terms of the three areas that contribute to FIPP, the ones the pitcher has the most direct control over home run, strikeouts, walks, there is enough evidence in his history to suggest he could be a standout in all three.

I think last year was mostly just dealing with consistency of mechanics and consistency of location. But that's something that every young pitcher has to, you know, some obviously have more strides to make than others, but every young pitcher has to go through that. And Castillo, if he comes out on the right side of it, could be awesome. Does anybody have faith in godly this year? I think the price is low enough that it's worth taking a chance on. He still can generate ground balls at a healthy rate, still got a decent amount of strikeouts. Yeah, I think there's definitely a bounce back argument to be made. And Scott, if I could just ask you a follow-up on Castillo,

Arn't Home runs a big problem for him? Well, he is a groundball, he has groundball tendencies that lead me to believe that they shouldn't be. Sure. The one thing, oh, sorry. No, you go ahead. I'll go in that last. You've been just sitting there not talking about.

speak up heath i didn't realize you know what heath speak up you're on the show i want to hear from heath no i want to hear from heath go heath wow i do think it's chris is leaving no come on i do think there's a good chance castillo's going to have some home run problems just because of the ball the park he pitches in what's going to be really interesting with him in terms of the ground balls. He was a pretty good ground ball pitcher in the minor leagues at times. And then he had seasons kind of like last year where what really wasn't at all. And so I don't know that we can expect the 58% from his rookie year.

He was at 45.9 last year. If he gets it back to 50. That's pretty good. I mean, 45.9 is still pretty good. As a rookie, he was phenomenal in terms of getting ground ball. He was at 39% that same year in the minor leagues. Right. That's the thing that we have to keep in mind. And this is a good thing to remind yourself of generally is he pitched 89 innings as a rookie.

And they were incredible. I loved what he did. But it was still 89 innings. A lot of it was really out of step with what he'd established in the minor leagues. And he can't get lefties out very well. He gives up like an 800 OPS against them. That's surprising given that the change up is his best pitch. But it's true. He's been better at home than he has been away.

been kind of a disaster away from home. That's weird. And he's been really bad with runners on base. He's learning out of a bitch. I feel like, yes, there are some stats you could look at and say, well, that's not good. But when you're not locating the ball well and when you're struggling with your mechanics, that's what happens. Like, those are kind of cure-alls in terms of refining the rough edges. Yeah.

And I like chasing the upside there, but he still does have a 412 fit for his career and a 377 Sierra. So it's not like he's just had bad luck. The skill indicators haven't been there yet. Okay, but he still, Castillo could give you a good whip. I mean, he did a 108 whip in 2017, and he kind of struggled last year, and he had a 1-22 whip, which isn't terrible, and he should give you plenty of strikeouts. Do you like Castillo, Chris, or do you not like Castillo? Because you're giving me a strong impression that you don't, and I'm not sure you mean to. You asked whether I like him or whether I don't like him, yes.

Okay. He's a young pitcher who has not figured out, and sometimes they figure it out, and sometimes they don't. The book on him as a prospect was he might be a reliever, and so far he's pitched like he might be a reliever. I could say that he basically had six terrible starts to start the year, and then he more or less turned it around after that. I mean, his last 25 starts, he had a 357 ERA. Last 14 starts, Castillo, had a 263 ERA. So let's not be too harsh on the guy. No, I like him.

I don't like him quite as much as everyone else does. Okay. Because he's got a 10th round ADP right now. I mean, with David Price was a great pick in the seventh round, so... And I'd rather have Castillo than Price for sure. Okay, let's do some bounceback candidates other than those two. I think the best thing to do is let's put them into groups. I'm going to go like groups of four.

And you tell me the most likely to bounce back to what we drafted him to be in 2018. All of these guys were first, second, or third round picks. Jose Al Tuve, Chris Bryant, Carlos Correa, and Gary Sanchez. Jose Altuve, Chris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez. Heath. That's an easy one? Yeah. That's an easy one.

It's Jose Altuve. is the most likely to bounce back. Miss time with injury last year didn't run quite as much. And we probably should have expected the power maybe to come back just a little bit, but he still should be the odds on favorite to lead baseball and betting average.

He should get back to his 25, 30 steals. And he's going to score a ton of runs and drive someone as well. 100% agree. Okay, then how about the next three? Scott, first word here. Chris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez, most likely to bounce back in 2019.

Sanchez. I don't really have any concerns about him. Of this group of four, the ones I'm discounting based on what they did last year are Bryant and Correa. And neither is such a concern for me that they're going on my bus list. But they both dealt with vague injuries that severely hampered their production last year. And because it's not this concrete thing that, okay, he had surgery and he's fixed now. I actually view surgery as a promising sign sometimes because we know it was addressed. Brian, a shoulder issue, Correa, a back issue. Those seem like things that could nag a player for years. They both have me a little concerned. Chris Bryan did have a very important thing removed. Oh, he did have a Chili Davis. No, he had a Chili Davis removal.

Yeah. I'm very optimistic about that. Yeah, I thought about that. I was looking at that. It doesn't seem like, let me pull up my Chris Bryant notes. I don't think he hit two. I don't think his opposite field approach changed much last year,

did it? And that's kind of the criticism of Chile Davis. Like, he wants you to go oppo. It's not so much that as just the general don't hit home run. I don't want you trying to hit home runs approach. That's what I worry about. Okay. And so the home runs for,

for Chris Bryant in four seasons, 26, 39, 29, and 13. And when he hit 29 home runs in 2017, he was the number three third baseman in both formats, but he was the number 15 hitter in points. Bryant was number 30 in Roto. 295, 29-homers, 73 RBIs, 111 runs, seven steals. Great plate discipline that year. 95 walks, 128Ks. That's why he was a lot better in points than Roto.

And maybe number 30 hitter in Roto. Maybe he was like closer to 20 in OBP Roto, because that's a batting average Roto League. I guess my question is like... But the bottom line is he wasn't elite. We thought he was going to be one of the elite power hitters. And he's shown he can be that. And then he hit 29 home runs.

So when you factor that in with last year, it's like we don't even know what he's bouncing back to. Correct. Like is he a 30... I'm going to say 39, but is he a 35 homer guy? Does anybody think Chris Bryant is still capable of that? Oh, for sure. He's capable.

Realistically capable, I guess. Yes. Yeah. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he did that. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if he hit 22 also. Okay. All right, let's go to our next group. Joey Votto, Brian Dozier, U. Darvish.

Joey Vado, Brian Dozier, you Darvish. Heath, who's the most likely to bounce back? I'll go with Joey Votto. just because I assume he's going to continue to tinker and he may find something that turns him back into one of the best hitters in baseball again. And he had a lot of things about his production last year that looked unlike and lucky. Watching him and his approach at the plate, it looked weird for a lot of the year.

Like he was just so intent on either going the other way or making contact. And still, he's a guy that walked more than he struck out. and hit 284 with a little bit of bad luck. So I expect him to bounce back to a certain degree. Okay, so the three were Vado, Dozier, and Darvish, and Votto is the only one, I know he did get hurt late in the year, but he's the only one that probably wasn't clearly affected by an injury. Is that fair to say?

Because Dozier dealt with a knee injury and Darvish was a mess all year. Yeah, I also, I think there's a... chance Dozier's done also. Like it's not a guarantee, but it's very possible to me. Whereas I don't think that's the case with Joey Votto. Dozier's such a weird player to project, I feel like, right now.

Because my senses, just my instincts kind of tell me the same thing. But his bad of all profile was almost identical to the one he had in 2017 when he, uh, was a stud, a guy we were drafting in like round two or three last year, right? And, you know, I wonder how much of it was just he didn't get that late season surge that he's always counted on because the Dodgers were benching him all the time down the stretch.

And, you know, if that's, if that has as much to do with it as I suspect it might, well, what's going to happen while we're waiting for the late season search? this year you know coming off the year he just had can we really wait around for that just trusting it's going to be there I don't think we can so it's he has to he has to kick it into high gear early I think to to justify his draft spot even recognizing that he's going much later than we're used to seeing it and if I'm pessimistic about doger and optimistic about Votto I'm just shrug emoji about you Dorvish because I have no idea what to expect in terms of help or performance when he's actually pitching.

But he is the cheapest of this group. Looks like he is available in the 14th round of NFBC drafts. And if he falls to that point, then he's well worth it with his upside. Yeah, I actually took both Dozier and Darvish back to back in rounds 11 and 12 of our Rodo League, 130th for Dozier, 135th for Darvish. I just, I refuse to believe that U. Darvish is washed up. I mean, he had elbow surgery, he had a stress reaction in his elbow,

he had a tricep strain, the Cubs thought that the stress reaction was bugging him all the way back to the end of May. He just, he was a total mess. 2017, though, he wasn't great. He had a 386 ERA, but he did have 209 strikeouts in 186 and two-thirds innings, one-and-one-sixth IRA, top 25 pitcher. Darfish, I think I obviously share the injury concerns. You have to. But I don't actually share the performance concerns because you might remember there was this whole thing in about May of last year about his release point. And he made some adjustments to get his release point back to being consistent with every pitch. And three of his last four starts were awesome. He looked like regular U. Darvish. And it's just, you know, obviously the season got swallowed by the injury. And, you know, it's easy to forget that that happened.

So I feel pretty good if he's healthy, he's going to be Udarvish again. I just don't know for sure what regular Udarvish is anymore. He had a 386 ERA in 2017. I'll take that if he gives you the innings and strikeouts. He's never been a great run prevention guy, though. Yeah, I think he can be better than 386 because if you look at 2017, once he moved to the National League, got out of Texas, he had a 344 ERA with the Dodd.

Dodgers, 401 ERA with the Rangers, although he was pretty crappy at Dodgers Stadium, ironically. But, I mean, look, sure, he's not going to have like a 290 ERA or anything, but he should strike out 200 batters. It's going to be... If he throws 180 innings, yes. Yeah. He's done that once since 2013. It's even less about, okay, can I trust him to stay off the DL all year than how many innings is he going to give me on a start-to-start basis?

Can he look like an ace for the time that he's healthy? And I think he still can. All right, let's move on here. Let me talk about a couple of middle infielders who have been good steel sources. One of them a great steel source. I already made the case for a D. Gordon bounce back. Elvis Andrews is the other one. Who's more confident in bouncing back?

Elvis Andrews or D. Gordon? I guess Gordon. Gordon, there's a lot more to like if he bounces back. That's really what it's more about for me. Sure. I don't know how much I'm willing to miss regret passing up Andrews if he bounces back. I mean, what Andrews did in 2017 was really impressive. And it looked somewhat sustainable.

But it was also an outlier. Right. And, you know, he's not that, like, Dee Gordon was one of the premier sources of both batting average and stolen bases, which are two of the hardest categories to fill. Andrews was more just kind of The hole was greater than the sum of the parts Which made him I think more valuable in points league than rotisserie But

There's so many short stops And it's more about like the stat scarcity That Gordon can fill That Andrews can't So what did you think about What did you think about what I said about Dee Gordon And what he did before his injury He's batting like 350 with like a 75 steel pace or something like that.

Yeah, I mean, I think it's a good point. I'm not super confident. If I was, I'd be taking him in round five and bouncing back to being 50 steals guy again. But there's a reasonable chance of it. Players with his skill set tech typically do not age well. You know, we saw Juan Pierre hit a similar part in his career and just kind of fall apart. I will say it's hard to see 2019 being worse than 2018 for him. And part of it may also depend on where he hits in the order.

Because I have seen, I think roster resource has him hitting 9th with Malick Smith leading off for the Mariners. If he's the number 9 hitter, that's going to seriously cramp his style. Yeah, that's a problem. I feel like if D. Gordon's good, he won't hit 9th. You know? Yeah, it's kind of how I feel, too. All right. How about three starting pitchers?

Carlos Martinez, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keikle. Carlos Martinez, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keikle. Most confident in a bounceback from... Martinez. I'm not sure I want anything to do with the other two, Robbie Ray and Dallas Keikle. Thoughts? I would need to see what Robbie Ray's ADP is.

I'm looking at it up now. 117th, so... Ninth round. in a 12th team league, like seventh round in a 15 team league, that's pretty pricey. Yeah, it's a little earlier than I'd want to take him. But, you know, obviously

not every draft is going to go according to ADP, and there will be some drafts where he slips to round 12. I might start looking at it then. Would you take Darvish or Ray? Darvish. Break the tie here. I think the best case scenario for both looks

pretty similar, and one of them's not coming off an injury. Yeah, I dig Ray. Ray did have an oblique injury last year, but you're right. He's not coming off an injury. Yeah, I mean, like, not a, not a, I don't know what the right word I'm thinking of. Arm injury? Yeah, but also like, yes.

Surgery. Career full of injuries. Also that. Like, I think the most likely scenario is both of them walk probably a few too many guys, give up a 3-8 to 3-5 ERA and Ray's not hurt or Ray's not coming off a serious injury. But Ray might be pitching five innings at a time

while Darvish would be 6 plus. It's a great point. I don't think Darvish's innings per start have been as good since he came back from his injury in 2016. Well, I just want to say this about Robbie Ray. His last 11 starts, 2,16. ERA, but a 131 whip.

And in those 11 starts, 265 ERA, only three quality starts did not pitch more than six and a third in any of those starts despite averaging 101 pitches per start. So just so inefficient. Yeah, in 2016, Darvice averaged 5.8 innings per start. In 2017, he was at exactly six innings per start? Yeah, six innings per start is pretty good. And not last year he was five. Well, yeah, but last year, obviously,

most of those starts weren't good, so he was getting pulled early. One more round of who will bounce back. I got two outfielder and a closer. Kenley Jansen, Marcel O'Zuna, Justin Upton. Kenley Jansen, Marcel O'Nah, Justin Upton, most likely to bounce back. Ozuna.

I'm going to say, I'm going to say Upton, I guess. I don't feel like he was that far off from what he normally is. Yeah, I don't Why is he a bounceback candidate? Well, let me tell you something. This is the only guy on my list that I didn't do notes on. I think it is...

I thought he was pretty crappy last year. I think that is a good point about Justin Upton, which is that... Yeah, he sucks. He's going to hit 260 to 275 every year. He's going to steal 8 to 15 bases. He's going to hit 30 plus home runs. But no,

but he's ever going to be excited to draft him. And it's kind of silly. His ADP is 93. And I think you illustrated kind of the general vibe around Justin Upton, which is he's probably at this point underrated. We viewed him as a stud for a long time. Now he is no longer viewed as a stud, but we've probably gone too far the opposite way.

Is that my point? On fan graphs, the ATC projection, it's 256, 30 home runs, 86 runs, 91 RBI8 steals. That's going to be a top 25. That's very, very good. Here's what happened with Justin Upton. He had a great year in 2017. And basically, last year, 2018, Upton did what Upton does.

So I guess I phrased it wrong. He probably shouldn't be on the list. He shouldn't be expected to put up the 2017 numbers. But the projection... But I think he's a chance he has better run production numbers this year. Sure. I mean, you're in the same lineup as Trout. That helps a lot.

And I think that was part of what we were... crediting for because those 2017 he had the surge once he got traded to the angels that's you know boosted boosted all his numbers pretty much across the board just a little bit

higher than what they normally are for him and I think maybe that made him kind of sniff elite status again but last year I think was closer to what we usually see from him and it's still awfully good but all he does is Homer

like he doesn't do anything. Justin Upton well, not good in batting average. He drives in runs, he scores runs. He gets on base a lot. 80 plus runs and RBI is valuable. Yeah, okay, it is. He's 93rd overall in ADP right now. He's the kind of guy that like

if you take in the fifth round, it's probably not going to be great, but you'll probably never have to think about taking them out of the lineup because yes, he's going to slump. You're not going to be able to predict when the slump starts and when the slump ends. You just sit him in your lineup. He's going to play every day. Just don't think about it. it, but don't take him in the fifth round, take him in the seventh round.

Yeah, I think he's probably going to give you a fifth or sixth round value. Yeah, that's probably true. Number 30 outfielder in points, number 20 in Roto last year. All right, so that's Justin Upton. Who's more likely to bounce back? Kenley Jansen or Marcelo Zuna? Yes. What's wrong with Kenley Jansen?

Like, why are you guys not for... Oh, he's... To me, he's... I don't have confidence in him at all. He's somebody I'm not going to draft in any leagues this year because he has his velocity is declining, his stuff appears to be declining

in terms of missing bats. He was actually lucky last year I want to say with FIP. I'll pull that up to confirm. Very much so. Yeah. And then you throw the health concerns on top of it

which are not even what we're used to seeing in a baseball context. I mean, we're talking about potentially life-changing stuff. him needing multiple heart surgeries. That can't help with any of that. I think he might be running out of gas here. I will say some of his unluckiness,

he was also unlucky in terms of home runs, and his Sierra was actually 297, so very, very close to his ERA. I don't know that there's much hope of him bouncing back to a sub-2ERA, Ken Lane Jansen. I still think he's fairly likely to be, a top six or seven closer.

Yeah, look, I like to make cases on both sides of the argument. And I think when I was doing the research, the notes on all these guys, I pretty much could. You can always kind of swing it whichever way you want. And with Jansen, I just, I wish they hadn't gone to the World Series again. Because I think maybe one of the things I'd heard him last year was he had a huge workload in 2017, including in the postseason in the World Series, which went seven games against the Astros. He pitched in like six of seven games. But of course, last year he had another heavy workload.

They tried to help Jansen by skipping spring training last year. But that was also he was dealing with an injury. He had a hip issue during the spring. Okay. Well, he's like, I'm pitching in spring training this year. So he's hoping that we'll get his velocity up earlier. And look, again, I'm just trying to give both sides of the coin. He's trying to make the adjustment from what didn't work last year.

And he was, he showed last. year he could make do with lesser stuff. I just feel like once... I just feel like when you remove a pitcher stuff, it's kind of unpredictable how things are going to spiral from there. And there are aspects of his stat line that lead me to... And I could say the same thing for Madison Baumgartner, by the way, that just leading me to believe he's barely hanging on. Any little bit more that his stuff gets diminished is going to completely reverse. ruin him. Yeah.

Okay. One thing I will say is Edwin Diaz was worse than Kenley Jan— Edwin Diaz in 2017 was worse than Kenley Janssen in 2018. We—you know, I mentioned earlier with Luis Castillo.

He was awesome as a rookie, but it was 89 games. Kenley Jansson's not going to throw. He hasn't thrown 89 innings in a season ever. And so this is one of those things with relievers where I hit like six or seven bad outings. And I think with Kenley Jansen, was basically what it was. It was right at the beginning of the season and right at the end.

It was right around in the beginning of the season coming back from that hip issue. At the end of the season, you know, he had two different heart scares. That might be a good excuse. And, you know, like, yes, he was a little bit diminished, but the Sierra was still 297. If he puts up a three-year-A with 90 strikeouts and 70 innings next season, okay, he's not the best closer in baseball. he's still really good well said chris towers well said scott white and heath cummings thank you guys for hopping on

fantasy baseball today tell your friends spread the word and give us a nice review on uh on itunes if you wouldn't buy for chris scott and heath i'm adam we'll talk to you on friday with our third of the week see you later nice words adam