Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/07 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Oldies but Goodies? AL-Only Draft

Episode Date: February 7, 2018

Is he still good, or is he too old? That is the question on today's show. But first we discuss 3B depth (1:50), Todd Frazier to NYM (4:55), Ervin Santana's injury (8:15) and TEX closers ... Can Miguel Cabrera (19:20) bounce back? Is there any reason to doubt Adrian Beltre (24:33)? Is Jose Bautista done (27:05)? Why should anyone hesitate to draft Nelson Cruz (27:40)? ... The guys also discuss Robinson Cano (30:30), Brian McCann (33:25), Edwin Encarnacion (38:30) and Ian Kinsler (45:15). Then we recap our 10-team, AL-Only draft (50:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

All right, welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast. It is Wednesday, February 7th. It's signing day where a bunch of young people are going to sign up to play college football with other young people. But we're talking about old people today. Luckily, we're not that old. We're still in our primes here as podcasters. But if we were baseball players, it might be a different story. So I'm going to ask Scott, Chris, and Heath about eight older players.

And if they are still good or if they are getting too old. Good morning, young men. How are you? Good morning. Hi, Adam. How are you doing? What are you laughing at? What did I do?

I thought it was a decent intro. That was the worst intro you ever... Oh, are you kidding? It was? He has done numerous intros worse than that. What was so bad about it? It was actually good for Adam's standard. Yeah, I didn't think it was bad at all.

I thought it was fine. It really bothered Chris. Why? I mean, it didn't. I'm actually laughing. All right, good. Well, that was the point. Yes, he was really funny.

All right, we'll get to the oldies, but goodies. We'll talk about our AL-only draft. that we did yesterday. 10 team head-to-head points league, American League only, and some of the takeaways from there. We actually have some news across baseball with Todd Frazier going to the Mets, Irvin Santana out 10 to 12 weeks, San Juan O going to the Rangers. And yeah, that's basically it.

Let's start with an email, email of the day from Charles in Chicago, Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com. But if I could just pause real quick, I just want to say that, like, I'm very self-conscious. Chris has made me very self-conscious right now. I hope you leave this in. It's all in. I don't understand.

Oh, okay, good. I thought you were pausing, like, for real. No, no. This feels like a solid podcast to me. Adam, you're doing amazing, sweetie. All right, here's the email from Charles. Dear Non-Zero Chance, still waiting for your debut album. Well, we just kick Chris out of the band.

So in the meantime, I'm increasingly concerned about third base. The more I look at it, I think it's the weakest position. And I'm moving up my top seven third base choices, accordingly. How do you guys see the position and are you as concerned as I am about third base? Not even close. In fact, I would make the opposite argument. I love third base. I think it's one of the deepest positions. I mean, I don't know who his top seven are, but I look outside of my top seven, and I've got Travis Shaw, I've got Devers, I've got Sano, I've got Eduardo Nunez, who may actually be a starter somewhere. Justin Turner.

Joey Gallo, Jake Lamb, Kyle, guys like Kyle Seeger and Mike Mustakis are outside of the top 15. Yeah. Well, I mean, I have Mustakis 9th, but that, you know, that only reinforces your point that there's a lot of third baseman there with potentially similar outcomes that are, you know, Mike Mastakis just set the Kansas City record for home runs in a season. I do think there is a drop after the top seven.

I actually have it as eight, but, you know, Bregman and Jose Ramirez are both in that group, and they're likely to be drafted to play other positions. But I see the drop as being after Justin Turner and then you get into the Mustakis Shaw Devers tier. But like, I don't think it's a problem if you wind up with any of those guys as your starter either. I mean, Kyle Seeger, we're used to him being a top six, seven, third basement, and now I got him down at 15th.

And not much really changed with him. I will say there is potentially a lack of safety outside of the top eight, and I think that's where the drop-off is. Less, like, I'm not sure Justin Turner has that much more upside than Travis Shaw, Justin Turner, who Scott has eight. He did better than Shaw last year, definitively. I mean, Turner on a per game basis, was elite last year. So there's, I do think there's a distinction there, but Turner's also in his mid-30s and

has missed time with injury. Yeah, I just, when you, but once you get to, like, nine, Mastakis has one good year, Travis Shaw has one good year, Ruffa That average has one good month and a half. Adrian of Beltray is old enough to be Rafael Devers' father. Miguel Sinoe, there's a lot of risk with Miguel Sinoe that I don't think we've talked about, even beyond just the strikeout rate. He's coming back from shin surgery, dealing with off-field things. And then I'maerno Nunez is another guy who has a limited track record of his own.

So I would say yes, after the top eight, there is certainly a drop. off, but that doesn't mean I'm scared off of the position. Okay, so Charles from Chicago, looks like you and I are the big losers today. Me with my terrible intro, you with your pretty bad take on third base. It's a deep position, but that's okay. Try again. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. I'm sorry if that was mean.

Chris has really changed me today. He's made me something I'm... Adam. Adam, I'm so sorry. Really rattled him. You did. I understand. He makes me meaner almost every day. Well, here's a third baseman.

that went from being in 2016, top 10, third basement, number nine in points, number six in Roto, to basically irrelevant last year, number 18, and points number 23 in Roto. Todd Frazier, we got baseball news. Oh, my goodness, a team signed someone. Todd Frazier, two years, $17 million to the Mets. Is he mixed league material or NL only? He can be a corner infielder. Yeah.

Yeah, he could be that. Not terribly excited about Todd Frazier. He just is, the kind of contact he's making suggests that he is post-prime. And post-prime Todd Frazier is a low 200s hitter who, you know, may still pop you 30 homers, but in this environment doesn't go very far. Well, that's the thing is he is a home run or bust hitter that has spent his entire career in like the parks that are in the top seven for home runs for right-handed hitters. Cincinnati, Chicago, New York.

Now he's going to the Mets, which isn't terrible, but it certainly is still below average in terms of a home run park for a right-handed hitter. And he's not going to give you anything else. So, yeah, he could be a corner infielder if you wait to fill your corner infield to the end of the draft. The skills have eroded. Yeah. So like I'm seeing Scott, you currently have Frazier 22nd and Franco 23rd. But are you going to change that since he's not on the games? No, I don't like either of them.

Are we done with Mike El Franco? Is he just like, we're done? I'm not, like, I don't know that I haven't ranked much differently than Scott does, but I do feel differently about him. I feel like this is his last chance. Yeah. And maybe it'll, you know, maybe he'll break through. The weird thing about Mike El Franco is for a player with his power potential, he makes a lot of contact. And that's not translating to batting average.

In fact, it's only gotten worse every year he's been in the majors. Next year, Philly's going to have so much money to spend. I have to think they're going to be in on the Mani Machado bidding, Josh Donaldson potentially. If Michael Franco doesn't establish himself as their third basement of the future, he may not get another chance with them, and if he doesn't with them, he may not with anyone. Has Michael Franco been drafted in our 12-team 30-round roto drafts?

I feel like he hasn't. Yeah, I don't think so. And it's weird. That's a mistake if not. I want to have some Mike L. Franco, just in case. But there are so many good hitters right now that I could see the justification for leaving him as a free agent. I mean, is he even a top 24 third baseman for either of you? Yeah, I've got him, I think, right at the top 20.

Well, Adam just said he was what, 24th for me? He's 23rd for you, 19th for Heath. And you know what the thinking here? We haven't done a 30-round roto draft. We haven't drafted benches in those leagues. I don't think. I think we've only gotten to 24, 23 or 23. We've only filled out his lineup. With the exception of the Dynasty League, but so many prospects were being drafted. And he did get drafted in the 16th round there.

Oh, okay. In what? The Dynasty League? Yeah. All right. Well, he's only 25, Michael Franco. All right, so that was Todd Frazier, Michael Franco. Here's Ervin Santana. He's out 10 to 12 weeks after finger surgery. How were you valuing Santana before this? And what about now? I was valuing him as a safe and potentially underrated number four option in a standard 12 team mixed league. Points league. Either one, but yeah, I mean, he's a little better geared for points leagues because of the innings and the low K-per-9. But, you know, it's really the innings that sets him apart from everyone else he's ranked around.

He's a player you trust to go 200 consistently. And with the really strong twins lineup backing him, that's a lot of wins potential there that would translate in any format. So, you know, he doesn't have the sizzle of like a Lance McCullors, but I could have seen him being more valuable. I ranked him a little behind McCullors, but, you know, now obviously this really cuts into what his innings total is going to be. And we don't know how effective he's going to be

when he returns either. So this may well drop him out of mixed league consideration. Yeah, he was already, and I kind of hate this, because he was one of the guys that I'd settled on going to be on my do not draft for Roto list, just because I just don't think what he does is going to be all that valuable. And there's not really a ceiling there. But now the floor is really low as well. I won't be drafting him in points or Roto.

Mixed leagues. Okay, this is Irvin Santana. We're talking about 10 to 20. 12-week injury, so he could miss, what, a little more than a month of the season. And who knows, could always have setbacks. And it's a finger injury on his pitching hand, too. A couple more news items. The Rangers signed Senwano to a one-year $2.75 million deal.

That's pretty cheap this market. This is a guy who went from having a 192 ERA and 103 strikeouts to 18 walks in 79 and 2 thirds. Just a brilliant 2016 season to being awful in 2000. 17. Awful might be a little strong. Being pretty bad. 410 ERA, half the strikeouts. Considering he was a top 10 reliever, at least for me coming into the year, it was awful.

For fantasy purposes, yeah. Huge busts in M.10. He didn't keep the role, obviously. And even when Trevor Rosenthal got hurt, he wasn't considered for the role again. You know, we don't really know who the Rangers Closer is going to be this year, but I would imagine O is like fourth or fifth

in the pecking order. And really, it's a non-starter if you can't regain the slider. He had his rookie season because it just wasn't there for him last year. So who's your best guess? Who's going to be the Rangers closer? My best guess is going to be Alex Claudio to start the year. But seeing as he's not a bat misser, Keone Keller is actually the Rangers reliever I rank the highest. Guys, any agreement, disagreement there?

Claudio is definitely the guy. I probably feel slightly more optimistic of O's chances of getting some. saves at some point this year and also agree that Claudio should start the year as the closer and also agree that Claudio will lose the job at some point in the season. Rangers Closers. I'm not sure how excited I am by Keonekella. I would not draft any of them. Really?

Like, maybe with a final round pick, but I've just, I'm at the point now where I, there is so much turnover at the closure position. Like, is it unreasonable to say that half of closers, that open the season will lose their job at some point? No, it's not unreasonable at all. It might be more than that. So what's the point of more than your last round pick with Alex Claudio? I agree.

I mean, if you get into like a 15-team Roto League or certainly like an AL-only format. Sure. Then, yeah, you have to... I see no reason to draft a man points. Oh, yeah. Absolutely not in points. But, you know, in categories league, you normally like to have that third save source. Yeah, right, exactly.

You want somebody to give you some saves. Okay, and the Giants are going to retire. Barry Bonds' number. Does anybody object to this? I mean, you're going to retire the number of a guy who can't even get into the Hall of Fame. Right, I mean. Like, how watered down is that? Sad history, that franchise.

Forget about the Diamondbacks retiring Louise Gonzalez's number. And did- Shoot, the Braves have retired Dale Murphy's. I mean, you know. I think the Miami Heat have retired Michael Jordan's number. And Dan Marino's. That makes a little more sense. Can I go back to the saves discussion for just one second? Well, I don't know, Chris.

I'm about, yeah, sure, fine. I'll forgive you. Sorry. So last season, you needed 73 saves to get to sixth place in your average Roto League. You know, that third closer, like you said, it's a nice thing to have. I don't know if it's necessary on draft day. Well, I think it's necessary at some point, particularly if you approach relief pitcher the way I do. In roto leagues, I'm all about quantity over quality.

I would rather not spend for the high end closer. I would rather just take three crummy closers and trust that their safe total is going to put me in the top four. Because it usually does. And, you know, maybe one of them doesn't pan out. As long as you're playing the waiver wire, it's pretty easy to find. It's not pretty easy to find a replacement. there's a good chance you'll find a replacement. If you're trying to, you know, pick up two closers off the waiver wire and count on that,

it's no guarantee it's going to happen early enough to keep you competitive in that category. Well, and especially if you're taking closers towards the end of the draft and you only take two of them, there's a good chance you have none of them. Exactly. Like, it's one thing if you're willing to invest in Kimbril or Jansen. I'll probably have four or five closers. I mean, who's your number four reliever? Mine's Kinebel, but it's not like, you know, he even has a full season in the role.

I obviously really like what he did last year and think he could be great, but I thought Sun 1-0 was going to be great last year, too. So, so much turnover. Yeah. It's scary. It's scary unless you really spend a lot there. I think in Roto leagues with nine pitcher spots, 12 teams, I think it's the hardest position for me in terms of strategy.

Because, you know, starting pitchers aren't as good anymore. So if you get really good relievers, not only are you helping saves, like you could really be impacting your ERA and your whip now. Yep. And they're just, you know, it's not like I want two closers and the rest starting pitchers necessarily because starting pitchers might just not be good. They might be hurting me when I put them in in the ratio categories. For sure. Your sixth and seventh starter are going to be bad. I mean, that's why you draft somebody like Andrew Miller. So last season, yeah, Andrew Miller last season was worth about as much in a ROTO league in the ERA category in 62.

innings as Drew Pomeran's was in 173. Drew Pomerantz had a 332 ERA, Andrew Miller had a 144. This is based on... And that's a good one. This is based on your average team last season that had, I think, 1,400 innings was the average last season. That's interesting.

Yeah, that is interesting. That actually makes it, you know, Pomeranz is, what rounds he's going to go in 18 or something like that? Like that? and he was just as valuable in ERA as Miller was last year that if anything that makes me less motivated to draft a reliever for ERA. I think the problem with that is

you got the best case scenario out of Pomerantz because most pitchers you draft in that area, most starting pitchers you draft in that area are going to give you a four plus ERA. In the 18th rounds? Or you're just dropping them in a month. Scott and Heath both did very well in the Roto League last year. with completely different strategies.

With completely different relief pitcher strategies. Did you draft a closer? Didn't you go really light on saves last year? I always go really light on saves. And I drafted like five or six relievers, and Scott and I were in the top three all year. I mean, the thing is I don't go light on saves. I just go light on, I just don't invest much in relievers

because while I want saves, I think, you know, it's just a counting stat that anybody who's filling that role, you can count on him to deliver. in that counting stat. So it's not, I just don't think it's the sort of thing you have to invest in. Now it changes completely

when you chop the player pool in half and suddenly there's only 15 guys capable of filling that rolled versus 30 and every closer goes for a premium in AL and NL only. And, you know, unless you're just punting the category or hoping to get lucky mid-season, you kind of just have to buy into it. And it's frustrating because that's obviously not the way

I normally like to play fantasy, But that's one of the interesting aspects of the position. I look forward to having more of an RP strategy discussion, and it changes in points leagues, and it changes in head-to-head categories leagues. It's a pretty interesting position. I think it's gotten a lot trickier over the last few years. So that'll do it for the news and notes. We actually, I think, have an email at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com about closers in head-to-ed categories leagues.

So I think we'll come back to this topic later if we can. But let's talk about some oldies, but goodies with a question mark. Can these guys be good or are they just old? I really kind of resent this entire discussion. Wait, you talked over my happy Gilmore drop, Heath. That was... Old! Too old! I mean, it took me like a whole five minutes to make that clip.

He was so excited about it, Heath. How did you do that, too? Is this your worst show ever? What am I doing? I can't imagine. somebody ruining something that Azer did live on the air. I am offended. Thank you.

Thank you. Okay, so are they, why are you offended, Heath? You're not that old. I think I'm older than every player on this list. Yeah, but you don't play baseball. You'd be a terrible baseball player. No, you're not older than Adrian Beltray. How old is Adrian Beltray?

Isn't he 40? I believe he is four days younger than me. He'll be 39 in April. I will be 39 in April. Oh. You old. No, Nelson Cruz is like there. Yeah.

Old. You're too old. Old. Too old. Thank you. See? Exactly. So here are the eight players.

Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltra, Jose Bautista, Nelson Cruz, Robinson Canoe, Brian McCann, who might be the youngest on this list, but he's a catcher. So, add like five years. He's 40 days older than me. We're going to go days relative to podcasters here. Do you just know how old they're? everybody is in relation to your birthday.

No, Brian McCann is a special place in my heart. Yeah, Adrian Beltrae for me because he was born in the literal same month that I was. That's the only reason I know that one. Evan Encarnacion and Ian Kinsler. So let's start with Miguel Cabrera. Miguel O'Cabre. I mean, look, we know the deal here. 2016, he was an elite player.

2017, he was outside the top 30 at first base. And he played 130 games. and there's just, he just didn't do anything. It was terrible. 249 batting average, 16 home runs. He slugged 399. Is Miguel Cabrera?

Still good, or is he? Just old. It really, and I was writing about this in the Tigers' team outlook, it depends on whether you just want to look at his actual production from last year or you want to look at his batted ball data, and how much you trust the batted ball data with him playing half of his season at Camerica, Camerica, we don't think that the battle. We just don't know.

We don't think it's right. But if you look at virtually every player in baseball history or 90% of them, it puts up a 42% hard contact rate and a 27% line drive rate, they are an elite hitter. That's what he did last year. And somehow he hit 249 with a slugging percentage below 400. Now, there was some pretty good stuff about his big problem. It was a little bit of an Eric Hosmer type problem to where,

a lot of his hardest hit balls and his best contact was like to right center and Camerica was just swallowing it up. He was really having a hard time pulling the ball with force. But I'm not ready to write him off. At the same time, you definitely

have to draft him at a discount this year. He's a low end number one first baseman for me. The other variable here is that Miguel Cabrero was playing all of last year. I believe with a hip injury, which may have contributed to his issues turning around on the ball. You mentioned that the kind of hard contact he made, the kind of line drive rate he had,

you know, that would normally make a hitter a stud. I mean, and I know there's reason to be skeptical of the hard contact rate at Comerica, but the line drive rate was his highest ever at 27.3, and yet he had a 292 Babbup when he's normally, up around 350. So that just doesn't add up to me. Maybe the injury was contributing to it. Maybe it was just a totally fluky thing.

But I think for the right price, like round six or later, I'm willing to gamble on Cabrera. And this season might ultimately tell whether he's just not good anymore. And at the very least, he did have his highest strikeout rate since his rookie season. I do think it's reasonable to say he's not what he was. but there's also a very good chance that he's still a very good hitter. You know what makes me think of is Andrew McCutcheon in 2016. Now, he had more indications of a declining skill set, but this was still a bona fide elite player who had one down season

and pretty much bounced back the next year. The batted ball profile didn't change for Andrew McCutcheon all that much from 2016 to 2017. I do think, and it's different for a soon to be 35-year-old, but the track record is so good for Miguel Cabrera that as long as he's healthy, and that's a big if, I would expect him to bounce back in a big way. I mean, I'd certainly rather draft him than Eric Cosmer. Yeah, is he sort of, Miguel Cabrera's kind of on like a first base island in the middle rounds, right? Like he's after Jose Abrae, let me get the rankings up so I don't make an idiot of myself.

Encarnazion and Cabrera could be an interesting discussion. I'm not sure they're having a caracione. Yeah, I feel safer. But then it's like you're definitely going to take Cabrera over Carlos Santana, aren't you? Yeah. So I just, I think he's sort of like on an island in between Encarnacion and Carlos Santana. A guy that I think has a lot of similarities is Matt Carpenter for similar reasons. They're both older players.

They both had batted ball data that look a lot better than their production last year. and they're both going to be huge discounts on draft day in relation to what their history shows. And Azer drafted both of them in our latest mock draft. Well, Azer's drafted Matt Carpenter in every mock draft I've ever participated in. I mean, why not? No, at the valet. He's 12th, 12th round, you got him, and Miguel Cabrero, you got in the sixth round. I would take both of those guys all day at those lines.

Yeah, I had an issue with Carpenter in that draft where I had already filled first base corner infield and utility. So I just, you know, I couldn't draft him at that point, as nice of the value as it was. One point of clarification, it was actually two herniated discs in Cabrera's back that were an issue all season. He did have a hip injury at one point, but that wasn't the biggest issue. I'm pretty sure if you have a herniated disc, you have a hip problem, too. I don't, I think those are, maybe. Yeah, pain-wise. Is it, is herniated disc spelled D-I-S-C or D-I-S-K?

C. Okay, cool. I'm just adding it spelled both ways. Adding to my notes here. All right, next guy. Could he be good or is he too old? Adrian Beltray, slightly older, younger than Heath? Older than Heath?

He is actually eight days older than I am. Okay, he will be 39 years old in April. And he was awesome in 94 games. He was really good last year. Battened 312 with 383 on base, 532 slugging. If he had played, I always go 155 games. If he had played 155 games, would have been the number 4 third baseman in points leagues behind.

Aronado, Ramirez, and Chris Bryant. But he missed two months with a calf strain. Then he had a hamstring strain late in August. So, you know, I mean, we haven't seen a bad season from Beltray in a while. Like, what's not to like? And he goes really late. Well, what's not to like is he's about to turn 39. But, you know, when he was about to turn 36, 37, we were just as worried about the age then. I don't know why everyone's decided this year is the year to avoid Adrian Beltray because I've seen him go as late as like round 15 and erode league. Maybe that speaks to the depth of the position and just why chance it on an old guy like that. But, I mean, he still has top five, six potential, I feel like. He's probably a guy I'm going to have a lot of shares in just because of the value he presents.

I definitely think he has top five, six potential on a per game basis. Yeah. He is probably the least likely third baseman to play 140 games. That's fair. Can he DH? They've got a lot of guys. Right. Like, Willie Calhoun might just be a DH.

Like, he might not be physically capable of playing anywhere, so you have to account for that. Gala will play some DH. They've got a lot of dudes. But, like, you know, looking at the last mock draft we did, the person who drafted Beltray, who was Scott White, also drafted Mike Mastakis five rounds earlier. I mean, I'm not sure I think Mike Mastakis is going to be better than Adrian Beltray, let alone five rounds better. At the same price, I might rather have Mastakis, at that rate, Beltray looks like a huge deal.

Yep. Yeah. Right. He was top five in 2016. He was on pace to be top. in 2017, but Beltrae did play the fewest games of his career with just 94 games. So, yep. And it goes quickly sometimes.

And I think this next guy is a pretty good example. Jose Batista. Is he, does he still have the potential to be good? First of all, he needs to sign somewhere. And or is Jose Batista just too old. He's 37 years old and was awful last year with a 203 batting average, 23 home runs in 157 games. Your thoughts on Batista guys?

Old. Too old. I think he's... I don't even sure anybody wants him. He doesn't have those reasons to hold out hope that Miguel Cabrera has, you know? That's the real distinction for me. Plus, he's what, four years older? Yep. All right, so I'm just going to hit this.

Old! Too old! And we'll move on to Nelson Cruz. Nelson Cruz is DH only. Last year, he was the number 17 hitter in points, number 13 in Roto. he is 37 years old. Cruz has hit 39 home runs or more in four straight seasons. Is there any reason not to love Nelson Cruz?

Shouldn't he be like a third round pick? Even if he's DH only, he's like almost Ortiz level good. He's 37. In terms of just numbers, he's probably the most consistent player in the last four years in the entire league. Maybe Anthony Rizzo. But his numbers are better than Anthony Rizzo's in that span. Right. But the thing about, like, it didn't happen to David Ortiz,

but it happens to pretty much everyone else. At some point, you just lose it. Maybe Nelson Cruz will be like David Ortiz, and he will retire before he loses it. But it often comes without warning. You have to discount him for the age, no doubt. What about, where is he going normally? I'm trying to pull up some mock drafts.

He was 53 overall in the fifth round in the most recent. And the other thing that's changed from previous years, because I feel like just last year we were seeing Nelson Cruz going like round three. He was outfield eligible then. And at least in CBS Sports, he's not. He's DH only. Now could he get five games in the outfield and recapture it? Absolutely.

I thought that same thing. I drafted him in our AL-only league, I think in the third round in our most recent AL-only draft. And I thought, you know, he's going to play five games out in the field eventually. He played four games before August in the field all of last year. Played his fifth game like at the end of August. Yeah, he played four games by the end of May and then didn't play another one until August. And, you know, you could say, oh, come on, Mariners. But the reason he's enjoyed this late career, like, the best portion of his career has been the end of his career.

And I don't think it's at all a coincidence. It's also been when he's been playing mostly DH. Right. I like that. He would get hurt a lot early on. that he's deaching. It seems to prolong people's careers. I would bet that he is, I don't know this for sure, but I've played on Yahoo a few years in a row now. I would bet that Nelson Cruz is outfield eligible on Yahoo.

So if he were outfield eligible, which round would you take Nelson Cruz in? Probably like round four. Right now it's more like five or six on our site, but I could see doing round four if I could play him in outfield. Would you draft Tommy Fam or Nelson Cruz? I would probably draft Cruz. He's so good. You know I love me some Tommy fam. Yeah.

Okay, sounds good. All right, let's move on to the net. This guy's pretty interesting, I think. Robinson Canoe. He was the number eight second basement in points, number 11 in Roto. Last year, he is 35 years old. And Canoe had an 813 OPS before the All-Star break. He was on pace for 33 home runs over 155 games, which would be pretty damn good.

after the All-Star break, he was terrible. He was on pace for 13 home runs in 155 games. Canobe had a 765 OPS after the All-Star break. He did deal with a lower body issue in the second half of the season. And just reading the update on our website, according to Shannon Dreyer of 710 ESPN Seattle, those issues affected Canoe primarily in the field and on the bases, not at the plate. So I think the picture that you draw of Canoe in four years with Seattle

is that he had one great year, and it was 2016. and there have been excuses every year. Injuries, death of his grandfather. I mean, I guess if you want to be a total optimist about Canoe, maybe he really is still a great player if he just stays healthy. But it's harder and harder to make the case, I guess. So what do you guys think about Robinson Canoe? I don't think he's a great player anymore or a great hitter anymore.

I don't think he's a great fantasy asset anymore in comparison to all the other hitters. I have a hard time dropping him too far at second base. He's, like, I think he's probably like sixth in my second base rankings, but his production, like, if you get a best case scenario from Ozzy Albies, who may be like 15th in my second base rankings, it's going to be better than Robinson Canoe. So I don't really think, like, you have to rank somebody sixth at second base. So Canoe get the benefit of the doubt for me, but he's not somebody I expect to draft. much at all. I think he's old and I think he's been old for four years now and just just, I don't know, just had something special happen in 2016. Oh, too old. Sorry, bad timing.

Yeah, I'm not quite right. I mean, he's the top five second basement for me in points, so I'm not quite ready to go with too old. Okay, bad timing there. It made sense after Scott's comments. Do you guys think there's any chance that Robinson Canoe could have a 2016-like season, 298, 39 home runs, 103 RBIs? Yeah. You do? It shouldn't expect it. Okay. I'm putting the chances very low.

He also doesn't steal any bases, and second baseman, a lot of them do steal bases. So I'll ask you, Chris Towers, Robinson Canoe, or quit Merrifield? Gosh, I'd probably go Merrifield. Oh, he's the Merrifield down. It's easy. Just give the cop-out answer. Yeah. It's an easy cop-out answer. Canoe points.

Maryfield, Roto. Canoe in points? Maryfield and Roto. You've got a cop-out. If it's what you do, that's just reality. It still feels like a cop-out. All right, let's go to... Maybe you don't know what a cop-out is.

Let's go to our next hitter, Brian McCann. Brian McCann was the number nine catcher in points, number 10 in Roto, in only, like 97 games, I think. I forgot a number here. I put seven games in the notes. I think it was 97 games. Oh, in fact, it was. First 24 games, he had an 8-78 OPS. He got off to a really good start.

and then it was pretty bad. 719 OPS in his last 73 games. McCann will be 34 years old in February. He had two D.L. Stens last year, a concussion in May, knee soreness in August. It feels like he is falling apart. He also can't hit lefties. Yet if he hits 2.30 with 23 home runs, he'll be a top 10 catcher. You know, what do you think?

Yeah, that's the thing. Like, you say he feels like he's falling apart, but you look at his numbers, he's been falling apart for six years now. Like there's just a lower, he's established a lower baseline that still tends to be high among catchers because catchers so bad. I kind of feel like Brian McCann is being underrated in fantasy because, you know, he was still starting caliber in only 97 games last year. I think he's going, I think he's going to play more this year because Carlos Beltron is out. So that frees up more DH time for Evan Gaddis. they've been saying they don't really want Gattis catching that much. They're going to carry a third catcher.

That third catcher isn't going to be deserving of taking a bat's from Brian McCann. So I think a rebound on some level is more likely here than him establishing an even lower baseline. I don't expect a rebound in terms of per plate appearance or per game production. I do think he's old, too old. I don't think he's a very good hitter anymore, but catcher's awful. And I can't find, like, I've got him top eight because I don't know who to put ahead of him. All right. Here's the one question I would ask.

How many played appearances would you expect for Brian McCann? For 75. How many would you expect for Stephen Vote? 400. Stephen Vote went undrafted in our month. most recent rotomock, Brian McCann was drafted in the 15th round. On a per plate appearance basis, Brian McCann got maybe a hundred more played appearances last season, if that, they were pretty much the same guy.

But if you're doing per plate appearance as your measurement, that the number of played appearances you expect them to get matters quite a bit, right? And my issue is that gap, like, is Brian McCann someone who's worth a middle round pick if a very similar player that you expect to play 80 fewer plate appearances that much. I expect the difference to be greater than that. I mean, looking at what Vote did last year and Manny Pena's, Mani Pena might be better than Vote. They like his defense.

So. Vote doesn't have any defense. Yeah. But it's really not about Stephen Vote as much as it's just about like, I just, like, as a number two catcher, I think I'm okay. with Brian McCann, but he's not someone that I'm ever looking at. You're never going to draft him as a number two catch. Right.

I'm sure he's in everybody's top 10. Yeah, that's why I'm saying I'm never going to draft him. I also see a lot of potential for McCann to just, for this to be like the last year where we draft Brian McCann. I see, because, you know, when he was on the Yankees, he was always playing through a foot injury, and I kind of felt like, all right, he's going to break down. And I think last year it started to happen. He had two D.L. Stens.

One's a concussion, so I'll just say he had one kind of breakdownish Dielston. I see potential for Brian McCann to hit Rock Bottom. He could... What happens to Brian McCann could be what happened to Stephen Vote last year. I don't know if that's Rock Bottom, but it's obviously losing a lot of fantasy value. You know, I just think, like... I don't know who I'm going to rank ahead of it. You know, you're drafting Salvador Perez in round 8.

You're drafting Brian McCann in round 16. McCann sounds like a much better deal to me. I kind of like... In two catcher leagues, I like the McCann combo. I'd rather have Perez eight rounds earlier. At least I have a chance for a great player at the position. I'll trade them before the All-Star break. I mean, McCann's pretty reliably hitting 20 home runs.

You're not going to find that. He's batting 230 or maybe 240 if you're lucky. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, how Perez is better, but you're talking eight rounds different. Who do you expect to play more? Brian McCann or Mike Zanino? It depends how well Zunino played more last season.

Zunino gets sit down to the minor. But Mike Zanino played more last season and was significantly better. He hit for more power. He hit for a higher average. Well, that's not something I expect to continue. What was his bad at last year? It was insane. Yeah, it was 355.

He strikes out 40% of the time. Yes. Zunino is not a good player. All right, we'll wrap it up here. We've got two more. I want to make sure we have time for our AL-only draft. Edwin and Carnacion. Number five in points.

Number eight in Roto last year. He is 35 years old. How old is Miguel Cabrera? He is also, he'll hope he's 35 in April. So Encarnacion is a little bit older than Miguel Cabrera. Got off to a bad start. First 41 games, he had a 689 OPS. But his last 116 games, Encarnazio, 949 OPS,

and also encouraging 77 walks to 83 strikeouts in those 116 games. And he actually played a lot of games. He's played 160 and 157 games in his last two six. seasons. Encarnassion had been pretty injury prone, usually like, you know, 1D Elston every year. So anyway, raw numbers, last six seasons, he's averaged 269 with 38 home runs and 110 RBIs. Do you have any fear drafting Edward Encarnacion, or do you think he's, you know, pretty safe to be pretty awesome? I have some fear. It's kind of on a Nelson Cruz level to me. I think they're back to back in my top 300s. You know, it's obviously not the fear I have for Miguel Cabrera because that production

hasn't really fallen off yet, but the strikeout rate has been going up. He's obviously on the wrong side of 35 now, or is he just now 35? He's 35. He's 35. I'm not sure when he'll be 36, but he's 30. He's getting up there. Age 35 season for Encarnacian. Um, so yeah, I've downgraded him solely because of age. Yeah, he's, just looking at what he's done recently. he should probably be a second round pick. He should be viewed in that elite tier of first baseman. He has been maybe a poor man's version, but basically Nelson Cruz in his consistency

with 39, 42, 38 home runs over the last three years. And he's younger than Nelson Cruz. So I think there's a slightly less risk. He has probably a top four or five chance of leading baseball in RBI if he's not hurt with the guys he's going to have on base in front of him. So, yeah, he's a late third round pick for me. Encarnazion. Would you rather have Encarnazion or a brayu?

Abreu. Encarnacian. Chris? Is this an abrayu in points, Encarnacion. And in Roto, just because of, and this is, I'm going to just steal a Heath thing. Good. But, Roto, you're going for first place. Ancarnacion has much more upside.

I don't even know that that's true anymore. I think a bra is definitely the roto target because he always hits $290 or better. And Incarnazion, the upside is 270, right? And I think the power upside is similar. You know, I would have said in the past Incarnassion was a better points league option because the strikeout to walk ratio was better. But that's not even true anymore. The way Encarnacio's strikeouts are escalating.

Well, that's the industry. I think a Bray is definitively better in both forms. I think Encarnacion's four years. even factor age. Like, likely outcome, assuming health, is like 37, 38 home runs. Yes. Abraeus is 30, 31? Abraeu has never hit as many home runs as Incarosteanos at each of the past years.

I'll take five or six fewer homers for the 20 to 25 point batting average increase. But you're also talking about a point batting average increase. You know, then another 10 RBI and 10 runs. Yeah. He's going to beat him in three out of five categories. Neither of them are going to make a difference in stolen bases. Let me just finish with this, because the strikeouts are important here. That was what people were concerned about with Encarnacion going into 2017.

His strikeout rate went up in 2016, and you look at it again in 2017. It was pretty similar, you know, right around 20%. That's not bad, though. But also, I mean, what do you make of the fact that his first 41 games, he had 27 walks, 50 strikeouts, 50 strikeouts, 50 strikeouts in 41 games. But then he broke out of that, 116 games to finish the season with 77 walks. the 83 strikeouts. Do you prefer to look at the full season numbers? Full season numbers.

But what I would say is, like, Jose Ibrahim does not strike out now as much as it looks like, and Carnaccio does, although it's really close, but he walks three times as often, or at least twice as often. His strikeout to walk is still a major advantage over Abraeu. He's better in both formats. Encranasione's gone off to slow starts, like three straight years, hasn't it?

The age doesn't concern you at all? It definitely concerns. isn't you're not really worried about his age at all that's why I'm saying for that's why I'm saying for for Roto where I'm aiming for upside I'll take the guy who could give me 40 homers and 120 rbi and in head to head where I just want someone who's there every week chugging along I'll take Jose Abrae and Abrae who is 31 he's not the age where you're like oh the drop off could happen but he's certainly at the age of we shouldn't this is where the end of the peak or the start of the decline does happen for a lot of

of players. He's a, I don't, the age makes a slight difference. But, and Carossione's just a better baseball, better hitter. Well, he wasn't last year, and I don't think at the ages they are now, you should expect him to be going forward either. He wasn't last year. He was eight points worse in Roto, in points, obviously. Yep. And then what about in Roto? I bet he was he better? He beat Abreu in runs by one. He beat him in RBI by five. He beat him in home runs by five, but a Brayu beat him in batting average by 46. Yeah, Brayu was better in Roe. Encarnacion was much worse in Roto than he was in points.

He was ninth in Roto, eighth in Roto, and fifth in points. And that's usually the case because his batting average is never very good. Yeah. I think I'd still take him over a Preu, though. Oh, yes, for sure. I think that hearing the arguments you guys have made, the only reason I would take Abraeu over Encarnazion is age. And it's not an insignificant reason.

Like, if that's why you want to go with it, that's fine. Makes sense. All right. Here's another step for Abraeu's points league value. 43 doubles for Jose Abraeu. 20 for Incarnacion. Yeah, but, I mean, this was a great season for Abraeu. He wasn't nearly as good in 2015 or 16.

We've seen better versions of Abrae than this. We've seen two great versions of Abraeu and two versions of Abraeu. Yeah, he was better as a lot of. rookie than this. Okay, 2016 was kind of bad. 2015 was definitely better than it was 290. But he was better in 2017 in 2017. Yeah.

All right, all right. Let's finish with Kinsler. Let's do it quickly here. I mean, bad a balled out. Walk the strikeout ratio was great. Babbib was just really low. Is it just the Babbib thing or what with Kinsler? He batted 236 with 22 home runs.

It'll be 36 years old in June. Kinsler's a guy I feel okay about drafting for where he's going. Kind of like I've said about Belteret, kind of like I've said about McCann. Nobody wants Ian Kinsler. You can get him for very late. And he was about the same as Robinson Kadoe last year, and at least in terms of point per game. You know, obviously he does different things well than Kano does,

does different things poorly than Kano does. But I think the overall line is similar. And that was in a bad year, a year where he kind of got burned by, a bad bat bit. Now, also, he's going to the Angels. He's going to be batting in front of Mike Trout. Potentially.

I mean, this is the... Last year would be the only year you could say, oh, he's going to a lineup where he's going to score a lot more runs than he should. He's been consistently at the top of a lineup that's driven him in time. And he's had better years because of it. And he scored more than he should have. And he scored more than he should have. And look what happened to Kinsler.

The one stat that I tend to look at with older players when looking at whether they're skill set is in decline is infield fly ball rate. That one to me is, and this is where Todd Frazier is terrifying. And Ian Kinsler had the best infield fly ball rate of his career in 2016 or the best since 2008. And then last year he had his worst in five years. That to me does suggest selling out for power. That's the way I look at an elevated infield fly ball rate is you're starting to see someone who has to sell out for power.

I think Trevor Story is a good example of a player whose skill set is just built around that. And so that is one place with Ian Kinsler where there may not be a big bounceback coming back, but he's so cheap. He won 178th in the most recent mock draft that I'm okay with it. I think I'd be more interested in Kinsler in deeper leagues where his steadiness would kind go a long way. Because if he gets the batting average back up, he'll give you good, production in runs, a respectable amount of steals, about 15.

That worries me a little bit. I know he's just continued to do it, but at his age, I would not be surprised if he's stole five bases this year. Here's my other point. He's not great at anything. He's always been a guy who's just sort of accumulated runs and at bats and I think. Certainly post-Ranger's career, I would say that's true. Yeah, yeah, he's had a long career.

The whole is greater than some of the parts, I would also say. He has been great. But in terms of, like, where he's finished in fantasy, because he's been, like, last four years before last year, the four years before that, I think he's been top seven every year, right? Ian Kinsler. He had been a top seven second baseman for four straight seasons before last year, at least four straight seasons. And I just, he was, he just kind of like a guy who plays a lot, scores a lot of runs. So, I don't know. If he declines in skill, he could be terrible.

But in it, so in a shallower league, like, there's not much upside, I guess, is what I'm saying. In a shallower league, I think I can do better. In a deeper league, middle infield, he could be just really solid for you. Well, I mean, again, like, it's one thing to say, oh, he's just a compiler. So let's look at the per game numbers. Points per game, last year, Ian Kinsler was 2.96. Robinson Canoe 3.04. Jonathan's scope, who we see going like round 5 or 6, also 3.04.

I mean, that's not. That's a difference, but it's not a big difference. And certainly when you consider the fact that scope was better than we've ever seen, Kinsler was worse than we've ever seen. I mean, I think Kinsler's a much better value there. He is a much better value, but it's like, at what point does value not really matter? If you're in a shallow enough league, just get great players. Like, that's kind of my Salvador Perez. But I'm saying it could be top five at the position still.

I don't see that. Yeah, right. I mean, that's my Salvador Perez versus Brian McCann argument. It's like, yeah, McCann's a better value eight rounds later, but he might just be a bad player, so it doesn't really matter. I don't know. I don't quite feel that way about Kinsler versus. No, I think Kinsler could be top eight or nine at the position again. I don't see, I don't see him jumping back into the top five.

So we got about 10 minutes left. Let's talk about the Yale-only draft. We'll save emails for a Friday show. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I think we'll only do three shows this week. Next week we'll start up with four per week, and then we'll get into five. It's still pretty early. Nobody's even close to drafting at this point.

But you're going to get a leg up if you listen to Fantasy Baseball today, and please tell your friends, help our podcast grow. Okay, so, AL-only thoughts, what did you guys think? I had the 10th pick. Which pick did you guys have? I had third. Which is not the place you want to pick in an AL-only league. I was second. So that's a pretty good spot.

That is a good spot. Wait, what's wrong with third? Because it's Trout, Altovae, then, wah-wah. Yeah, there's an obvious one and two there, and then three. I ended up going Stanton, but there were like four guys I could have picked. Heath, where did you pick? I picked eighth. I was very happy with my placement in this draft and my start to this draft.

I got to say, first base sucks in... It does. It is because you're missing the big four. Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Fotto. Like, it's deep. You've got some option. Like, if you wait and you're the last person to take a first baseman in a 10-team-A-L-only league, you still probably like your first baseman.

But Jose Abrae was the first guy off the – or Encarnazion. Jose Abrae is the only first baseman worth reaching for in the AL pool because there is then a massive highly volatile – Unless you think Encarnacion is better than Abraeo. Sure. I would say in terms of volatility, though. I think we agreed on that much that Carnacion is much more so than Abraeu. And that volatility is an even bigger issue in a league-specific format where there's no waiver wire to fall back on.

Yeah. I don't know what, like over the last three years, he has been remarkable. He's been much more consistent than Abraeu in his performance. He's done almost exactly 39, 42, 38 home runs, 111, 127 RBI. You know what? Heaths no longer an ageist. I'm just saying in terms of volatility, he has been much more consistent than a radio has. He's been very...

But what makes the player volatile? Well, you know, I'm sorry. Being rolled is number one on the list. It's not, well, it's not just what you've done in the past. I understand that. What you're likely to do in the future. But like... Is Nelson Cruz volatile?

Yes. That's why we're downgrading him. Okay, so just to get back to the AL-only discussion, what did you? you think of the draft? What were your major takeaways? I'll just read the first round real quick. Trout, Altov, Stanton, Betz, Machado, Correa, Kluber, Sale, Judge Verlander. Okay, so just overall thoughts on American League only. I hate having to draft Justin Verlander in the first round in any draft. Yeah, me too. And it was my pick.

Should have taken Lindor. It's worth pointing out you probably probably. I took Lindor 11th, so you could have been... But it was either Verlander or Carrasco, and... Yeah, or Severino, I guess. And I would have taken... I would have taken Severino, but, you know, it's... I don't...

When you consider the players that were drafted around Verlander, I don't think it was a ridiculous pick. We're just not used to seeing that, because we're not used to playing with the halved player pool. And it's really beyond halved, because if J.D. Martinez was a Red Sock right now, he would probably be a first-round pick instead of Verlander. And that was one of the frustrations because you can only treat the free agents like there's a 50% chance they're going to contribute it in this format.

And in some cases it's less because there's just no buzz about them going to an AL club, like in the case of Jake Arrieta or like Greg Holland. There's just so much more emphasis. There just seems to be so many more rumors about them going to the NL. So less than 50% in those cases. So none of them are really drafted at the value they'll be if they do wind up in the AL. I think JD Martinez was a fourth rounder. That's where somebody was willing to gamble on that. So that was one of their frustrations.

In terms of AL player pool, AL is deep at second, third, and short relative to NL. You know, most of the good players are in the AL at those positions. It's very weak at first base. Outfield, you're not going to like your second and third outfield. They're in all likelihood. It's always shallower at starting pitcher because of the DH issue. But what really stood out to me beyond first base, relief pitcher, where there's only a chance 15 players are going to be accumulating saves consistently.

And I see only seven in the AL that I feel like will reliably do so. That made it reach-worthy, I think. But I look at the first basement. Like here are the starting first baseman for each team, just going in, I think it's, I don't know, alphabetical order. Yuleiguriel, Matt Olson, Justin Smoke, Chris Davis, Greg Bird, Ryan Healy, Eric Hosmer, Miguel Cabrera, Ebena Cardassio, and Jose Abrae. I guess we saved the best for last. There's a big difference between, you know, the top and the bottom. But I, like, I have Yuli Guriel.

I'm fine with Gurriel as my starting first baseman. I don't feel like anybody has a just dreadful first baseman starting for them, whereas, you know, James McCann as a starting catcher, Mike Zanino, Robinson Chorinos, Francisco Mejia. Yeah, you know, it's always, it's always relative to what your competition's going to have. It's how you should look at it. And first base, I think the only one with a clear advantage there is the guy, who drafts a bray. It's why I said he's the only one who's reachworthy.

Heath would include incarnation with that, fine. But, you know, if you don't happen to get one of those two, then, yes, it's a position you can wait on. You don't want to reach for Matt Olson or whatever. Right, right. Whoa. Is that who you drafted? And I am thrilled to get Matt Olson in the seventh round.

Well, maybe you didn't reach for him. Yeah, something else than a reach. Right. You take them. You don't reach for them. That's the point. Absolutely. Total difference.

I don't think I reached. You didn't. But, no, I'm talking about Gary Sanchez. Oh, okay. I just, when it got back to me at the end of the second round, I had to take him. I just, he puts you so far ahead of the game. Like, he could produce like Jose O'Brayu next season. But my favorite pick of the draft was probably Evan Gaddis.

I said, bleep you heath. He took him with the eighth pick of round five, and I took Salvador Perez two picks later. But, yeah, I mean, catcher. It was also my favorite pick of the draft. The catcher gets terrible. Catcher gets terrible. So, yeah, I mean, I don't know. I guess the question is, do you identify the positions that are super shallow and prioritize

those like catcher, like relief pitcher? Or do you try to balance it out? The difference is catcher. I mean, it's one thing to pick Gary Sanchez because, you know, even in a mixed league sense, that's the guy you reach for. But everybody's catcher's going to stink. I don't see a reason to put a – to emphasize that on. draft day but you know the difference between a reliever who gets saves and one who isn't getting saves is huge so if there are only seven relievers who you think are going to stay closers all year

um i think you need to make sure you get at least one of those even in a 10 team league i mean there's there's going to be three teams who get zero if there's an even distribution and some guy may come away with two i'll just i will flip what you said the difference between a reliever who gets saves and a reliever who doesn't is one bad week for Alex Colomey, you know? What do you mean? There will be reliever. Like Alex Colmaine lost his job last season for a stretch, right? And then got it back, obviously.

But like, you know, Cody Allen might be two bad weeks from losing his job. You're just saying it's thought. It will be easier to find a reliever that gets saves than it will be to find a catcher. Yes. There will be relievers on waiver wire. But good catchers just don't exist. exist. Yeah, right.

I mean, I think in an AOL only sense, like you said, it's relative to what everyone else has, Gary Sanchez is an elite player that maybe should have been a first drum pick. Evan Gattis and Salvador Perez are good catchers in this format because they are so much better than what everyone else is going to be. Okay. Yeah, so you got three there. What about the other seven spots? The other seven catcher spots. We got to wrap it up.

I do apologize. They're going to be bad. Like, there's no way around it. They're going to be bad, and I don't think there's going to be a huge difference between the fourth catcher and the tenth catcher. I don't want to spend on the fourth catcher. I also felt like I didn't want to necessarily reach for, like, mid-tier outfielders. Like, I would have kind of like to have one elite outfielder. If I could do it again, I might take Springer over Lindor because shortstop is kind of deep.

Outfield has like a bunch of whatever guys, in my opinion. Second and third outfielers are going to be bad, and A.L. I really just swing hard and hope you hit the ball. Okay. We do have to go. I apologize for the abrupt departure here. There's another podcast coming in after us. So thank you to Scott, to Heath, to Chris, and we'll talk to you later in the week, everybody. Enjoy the day. I'm sorry, Adam. Enjoy the day. It's a terrible outro. Goodbye.