Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/09 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Player Comps, Elite SPs & More

Episode Date: February 9, 2018

Covering many topics on today's show, we start with a discussion about innings pitched (1:25) and what it means when evaluating SPs and why Jacob deGrom has a better chance to be elite (5:39) ... Interesting player comparisons to think about on draft day (16:00)! Who can you draft a few rounds later that will produce similarly to a first or second-round stud? ... We also discuss our favorite SPs after the big four (34:00), closers who will lose their job (40:40), Manny Machado vs. Carlos Correa (44:00) and much more ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A lot to cover on this Friday episode of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. Pitchers and catchers reporting in just a few days. This is exciting. We're getting close to the start of the fantasy baseball season. Welcome everybody, Adam Azer with Scott White and Chris Towers. Well, what do you got? My intros are always terrible, so intro to show. I think he was great, Adam.

I don't think anyone could criticize that or any intro that you've ever had. anyone who would, frankly, I want to know who their boss is. Aren't you all of our bosses now? I don't think I'm your boss. Yeah, that's funny. For those of you don't know, Chris is basically like he's the new GM of CBS Sports. Yep, yep, the CEO. No, he's taking on more of a leadership role these days, and he's our boss.

So that's kind of true. But we'll just joke about it. We'll just joke about it throughout the year. So whenever we get to an argument, we'll just let Chris decide it. Scott, good morning to you. Good morning, Adam. Today on the show, some player debates complete with Twitter polls and some combos, like what we did earlier in the week. Crazy stat I'm about to give out about Chris Sale.

And yeah, we're just going to talk about, like there's no real structure to this. A lot of emails, fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. It's called a smorgasbord, and let's get started. Stat of the day. Chris Sale led baseball last year with 214 and a third innings. So from what we can tell, Chris Sale, again, 214 and a third, led baseball. That's the fewest in baseball history, beginning in 1901, you know, to lead the league, excluding two strike-shorten seasons.

That's incredible. Is that a fluke, an anomaly, or a sign of the times? I think it's a trend. It's the furthering of a trend. And I don't know that, you know, that means there's going to be, the MLB leader is going to have 213 innings this season. Not necessarily. There are still some hanger-ons to the old way of doing things,

give a pitcher 200-plus innings. But I think we're going to see less and less of that going forward and more and more of what we're seeing the Dodgers and Astros do, which is move pitchers in and out of the game. the rotations to preserve their innings and allow them to pitch at closer to peak ability instead of wearing down and exposing themselves to injury. You know, it's going to be really interesting. We've kind of mentioned this at some points, but this whole pitch clock debate,

pitchers aren't going to be able to throw with the same amount of force if there's a pitch clock. You know, one thing that we've seen, Fangraphs tracks, this is, you know, pace, the of average time between pitches, and they also track average velocity. And those things are highly related. As league-wide pace has gone slower, average velocity has gone higher. And I think pitchers are throwing with more, I don't know, intensity. Yeah. That's not going to be the case with the pitch clock.

And I wonder what the downstream effects of what I think we can all agree are, an inevitable pitch clock will be. Well, yeah, well, hopefully it doesn't happen this year. I don't think it's going to happen this year. It looks like they're moving away from that. But I just want to say there were seven pitchers in 2016 that threw more innings than Chris Sale did in 2017. So, you know, was it just kind of fluky because Kluber spent some time on the DL, Kershaw was on the DL, Scher got hurt and still pitched 200 innings. Yeah, I mean, Scherzor pitched, I think, two or three fewer starts than the year before. and it's not really a trend.

If you look at the year-by-year leaderboards, basically since the early 2000s, there's been like one guy who threw 250 innings, but other than that, the yearly leaders were usually in the 225 to 235 range. Right, but that's still a huge drop-off for Chris Sale at 214. Right, I would guess that's a one-year-old. There is definitely a downturn of innings year-by-year. I don't have the stat written to go here.

Well, what I'm saying is the leader. The leader board. A league leader, this is the first year that it was really down. And what I was saying is, you know, there are several pitchers, I think, who are capable of throwing 220 innings still, and they made this year. But they are a dying breed. And, you know, we did have Severino emerge in that group last year. And maybe another occasional guy will emerge. But it's not like, I don't feel like that's the goal for every pitcher anymore is to become an innings eater who can throw 200 plus.

innings or even 180 innings. Again, I don't have the stat ready to go, but I think there were only like 13 pitchers who exceeded 180 innings last year, and it's gone down by like a dozen each of the last five years. Scott, yeah, the 13

number is definitely not correct. Again, I was going off the top of my head. I think it might be 190 and I don't know. Yeah, so there's more like 30 pitchers who threw 180 innings. So, Scott, well, we'll figure that out. There was as many as 30 last year who threw 180?

34. 34. I'll figure this out. If we're demanding accuracy on this off-the-cuff podcast, I will get to the accurate results. We always demand accuracy. And actually, the reason I brought it up is I have a kind of bold prediction. I don't know how bold it is. I think Jacob de Grom enters the elite tier this season.

I love Jacob de Grom. And I think the main thing holding him back is just innings. is he going to be more than a 200-inning pitcher? And I don't know that he has to be anymore, you know, much more than that. I think if he can get to 210, let's say, I think Jacob de Grom can be an elite pitcher. He threw 201 in a third last year, and he had a 353 ERA, and that's not very elite, but I believe he's better than that. His previous career high was 304.

So I love the strikeouts for DeGrom. I'm excited about him. I want him on my team. I think Jacob de Grom can become, he'll be what, a four-year-old. fourth round pick this year. It'll be a second round pick in 2019 when we all realized just how freaking awesome Jacob de Grom is, and he and I have the same birthday. So how about that?

Number of pitchers with 180 innings plus the last four years, 35, 2017, then you go back 46, 56, 66. It's a precipitous drop there. I would say, I would expect at some point that levels off. I don't know. I think it might be like... Like, I don't think in five years we're going to have negative. Oh, no.

Yeah. At some point, it will level off. I don't know that it's going to level off at last year's mark. But I do think there's a lot of validity to what's causing it to happen. I mean, we didn't see nearly as many major pitcher injuries last year. And, you know, that's obviously just a one-year thing. We'll have to see if it continues. But it was becoming an epidemic.

and the Dodgers and Astros both had a lot of success with this last year. You know who's really good? Who? Jacob DeGron. Yeah, I think this conversation, we need to move it along. So what do you think about DeGrom being an elite starting pitcher? So he's not far off already. Yeah, on a per inning basis, or on a per start basis,

it's not like he gets pulled early a lot. The weird thing about his limited inning total of 191 is his second most. Did he get to 200? last year, just barely? 201 and a third. Yeah. But it's not like he's like Kyle Hendricks and he's just going five and third innings every time out.

I mean, it's going 200 innings is a big freaking deal. Right, but the thing is he only made 31 starts last year. Sure. That's pretty weird. You would think a number one pitcher typically makes 33 to 35 starts if they avoid the DL. He didn't have a DL stint last year, right? Well, I guess my point was like, yeah, he had an inflated ERA. I think we all probably think that the garage.

is not a 350 ERA guy. And just you look at him and the one thing that would really hold him back from being an elite starting pitcher is innings. I don't think he's going to throw 220 innings. But that was kind of my point of the whole stat of the day would say, I don't think he needs to anymore. You can throw 200. Again, I would like to see him get to 210, which would be a career high, but you can throw 200 to 210 and still finish, you know, top 5 or something like that. I think it's much more realistic now. So that's a guy that I'm going to be targeting.

I would, like I would take him over Cinderguard. And I would probably take him over Severino, and I know that most people wouldn't. So I guess I'm kind of becoming the DeGrom guy, which I've been like three years in a row. I think he's a very solid number one picture. Okay, great. All right, well, then, let's move on and get you guys involved a little bit more. News and notes, Yassil Pueg's agency has ended its relationship with him, reportedly for behavioral issues, according to SB Nation.

And Pueg is a pretty interesting player because he's a useful fantasy guy. He got, what, like 15 steals, 20. I have bounce back season last year. Yeah, 28 home runs. Surprisingly, okay, he hits 263 with 28 homers and 15 steals, and only the number 25 outfieler in points, number 31 in Roto. Batting average is bad. I mean, 263 batting errors is going to hold you back.

So what do you guys think about Pueig? When do you draft him if you draft? Yassil Pueig. I think you draft him as your third outfielder. maybe even a fourth outfielder but you know that's that you have a pretty strong outfield if you're able to get him as your fourth outfielder and I I'm actually

assuming nothing more results of this whatever behavioral thing happened with him assuming he's good to go for the Dodgers at the start of the year I'm encouraged about him actually exceeding his

production last year because you remember for most of last year he was the eighth hitter and the Dodgers lineup. And he was having such a good year. They moved away from that as the season went on. But it's hard to measure up in RBI and runs when you're batting eight. Yeah. Getting a fewer of bats.

I mean, it's not as big a deal, I feel like, as some people make of it, but it's a big enough deal that, you know, you may notice the improvement. Yassio Pueig breakout season coming. Only hit 263, but that was with a 274 bat. Abbott last year. He had a career low strikeout rate of 17.5%. I think we saw a better version of Yassel Pueig last season than we have since his rookie season. I think he will have a very good season. Yeah, I think he, I think Pueg might be kind of a sleeper, but I also think that the, you know, his agent firing him because of behavioral issues, when Pueig makes, you know, a good amount of

money, that's not insignificant. And this is a guy who has been held back. I don't know this for absolute certainty, but I think it's pretty clear. Pueg has been held back by behavioral issues. He doesn't have the mentality that you want, you know? It's frustrating. It's frustrating for the Dodgers and for fantasy owners. He does not seem to be well-received in many circles. That's, you know, it's a lot of hearsay, but a lot of genuine reporting, too, seems to back up that idea. And they demoted him. There's something to be said for liking the people you work with. I don't know. It's, you know, if he's a superstar, it doesn't really matter.

But for a while there, he wasn't even looking like a positive player. Last year, he got back on track. We've seen him be the kind of guy who one month-long slump can bury him in his team's eyes, too. Yeah. Yeah. Okay, well, would you rather have Pueig or Adam Duvall? Pueek. Pueg or Brett Gardner?

Puege. Okay, man. Pueck's good. Last note here, according to Bob Nightingale of USA Today, the Red Sox had trade discussions during the winter with the Indians for Edwin and Carnacione, but the Red Sox were not willing to give up Jackie Bradley Jr. That just shocked me. You wouldn't give up. Yeah, maybe there was more to it, but you wouldn't give up Jackie Bradley Jr.,

who is an amazing defender for Edwin and Carnacion, one of the best offensive players in the game, on a reasonable contract. That is weird. Yeah. Well, isn't, I mean, obviously, Encarnacion's a much better fantasy player, and, you know, I don't necessarily treat war as gospel, but isn't Jackie Bradley because of his defense the higher war player? And certainly he's younger. Maybe, but he's, you know, I do wonder if you reach a point, especially with the shape of Boston's park, you'd probably reach a point of diminishing returns with outfield defense in that specific outfield. Right? Wouldn't it be reflected in war? I don't know.

I'm not sure how that would be how that would be. Yeah, I don't know. They do have a pretty tricky center field, and he navigates it really well. But still, like, come on, you can't, like, you cannot prioritize defense. I think it's crazy to prioritize defense over a guy who can hit 40 home runs. Well, especially when you already have Mookie Betts and Andrew Bennett in 10. That seems playing three center fielder. Yeah, but I didn't know if that tells you more about they think Bradley still has a lot of potential left as a hitter.

or they are afraid of Edwin and Carnacion, or we just don't know enough about the situation. I just thought it was very interesting. I think teams tend to like what they already have, if it's more or less equal. And looking at the wars, I feel like it's more or less equal, except Bradley's younger.

So I don't know. I don't think it's crazy that they turned down this trade. I wouldn't think it was crazy if they accepted this trade either. I don't think you're giving defense. enough credit, or at least the way modern executives value defense, enough credit. Well, they're stupid because defense doesn't win championships. Home run hitters who drive in 100 runs every year win championships, Scott White. Okay.

Yeah. No, I would always prioritize offense over defense, which may be to my detriment. But I'll never get that chance. So there you go. Well, pitchers and catchers, as I mentioned, are reporting very soon. We're almost there, so you've got to get signed up for your fantasy baseball leagues. And I promise if you use CBS Sports.com, you will not regret it. CBS Sports Commissioner has launched.

It's the best place to play. I've played on other sites, and obviously I prefer CBS. And, you know, you don't have to take my word for it because you know I'm going to be biased. But just go on there and you'll see just, you'll see how great the leagues are. Why? Because they're customizable. You can create your own stat categories. You can adjust scoring by position.

There's a deep player pool with minor leaguers and even a feature to add your own player. It's great for Dynasty leagues because you can swap up to three. years of future graphics, plus the player pool is so deep. And the advanced stats are great. So if you're like, you know, regular Chris Towers and you love analytics, you're going to love playing on CBS Sports. And when you sign up on CBS Sports, please help us out. Let them know that you listen to the podcast.

Visit CBSports.com slash FBT. CBSports.com slash FBT. And get your league started today. Please, CBS. Sports.com slash FBT. All right. So we got a lot of emails to get to. fantasy baseball at cbsi.com and this one we talked about it via email yesterday it could have been

an entire podcast rather than just a segment on a podcast but uh we'll try what do you guys want to do what do we end up deciding oh i think chris wanted to make it its own podcast but since we're into it now i guess we're just going to have to like most a lot of these are self-explanatory and we can just blow over them okay so so here's maybe some discussions that spring from this the email from Matt was, I was wondering if you could give some of the best examples of big-name players drafted early on and a comp at their position that will put up similar numbers that you can draft several rounds later. So it was really interesting, you know, an example of an early round pick and a comp at the same

position that will put up similar numbers that you can get several rounds later. I didn't go with all same positions because unlike you guys, I don't think position matters that much. Just get the best player. And I think that's part of this discussion. is there are going to be guys at shortstop that we draft five rounds earlier who have the same production as guys as outfield. And it's not necessarily all that smart to do. Well, okay.

We'll get into that more, whether it's smarter to do it or not. And I think it varies from case to case. You didn't include mine in here, Adam. Come on. Didn't we have enough? I mean, like, we have so many guys. This would take an entire show, but fine. Sure.

But I like some of mine. Okay. I'm sure you did. Let's get started. All right. So this is what Chris said. The name brand would be Anthony Rizzo. The guy you can get a little bit later would be Jose Ibrahim. It puts up similar numbers. I mean, what is the big difference between what they did last year in particular?

Massive difference. Well, last year, no. But, yeah, actually, in points, in points league's massive difference in walks. Abrams really well. Chris tailored this more from a five-by-five perspective. And I think it makes sense. sense in a 5-5-5 perspective. Rizzo is a better overall player than a brayu.

It gets on base a lot more. But A brayu might actually have a slight advantage in Roto just because I think there's higher batting average potential there. Rizzo probably has more power. Although,

very close. He's only got like three more home runs over the last three seasons, I think. It's close. The other thing is the runs. which is from getting on base and being in a good lineup. Yeah, Abrae is not really a good. Last year he was good with runs. He scored 95, but that was a career high.

He's usually in the 80s. But no, if you get like a two-round discount, it's really not bad. If you do. But I have Rizzo as an early second rounder, and Bray is an early third rounder. So I think that's fine. I was also going off ADP, which is early and it's prone to fluctuation, but yeah, still. Okay, let's go to the next one. Name brand is Trey Turner.

The generic guy you can get later. I love the name brand generic. It's very funny. Trey Turner or Starling Marte. Yeah. So you can get Marte later. Yeah. I mean, Turner might get twice as many steals as Marte.

It might not be quite that many. And he's also a short stop. Yeah, I mean, the last time we saw Starling Marte play a full season, actually, he didn't even play a full season. He still 47 bases in 129 games in 2016. He still 21 and 77 games last year. It's, you know, when you're buying the generic in this case, it definitely tastes a little worse. Most thing more prescription drugs.

He's the R.C. Cola of this discussion. And I feel like it's another one where the gap is even wider in the points league, where Marte is kind of underwhelming. Yeah, but I do like, I do think people are sort of forgetting about him in Roto because Marte was probably a third round pick in Roto last year. Has the PED suspension struggles a little bit, but still stole a bunch of bases. It's like, I love, I think I took Marte and Roto League into sixth round, about 61st overall, I think. He's gone as early as the late, the end of the last pick of the third round in a roto draft we did. His ADP right now is 50th. Okay, well, I think 50th is great value for Marte.

Yeah. Okay, next up, the name brand is Alex Bregman. The generic is Lorenzo Kane. This is my favorite one. This is the weirdest one. Good, they're not the same position. Beyond that. Like, I'm not even sure they're the same phenotype.

of player. I see Kane is more of the athletic base dealer and Bregman is more of a, at least what I envision Bregman ultimately becoming is more of a power and high OPS guy. But he did steal a

decent number of bases last year. And he's being you know, I've been discussing Alex Bregman with just industry people. He might be the most divisive player in fantasy baseball right now. There are people who think he's worth an early third round pick right now. And there are people who think, you know, I'm more on the, I'm just not going to draft Alex Bregman.

Like, it's not even, I don't know what he's worth, but I'm not going to get him. He's going to go as forth. I like him more than you. He's going to be drafted before I'm willing to consider him, especially when there are guys. And I think a lot of industry people are looking at Alex Bregman as more of a power speed guy right now. I will say this about Cain. last two seasons, 18 of his 24 home runs were hit on the road, and he's obviously going to a much better ballpark.

So there's that. I think you can have a 2030 season. That's what also makes it weird is, like, I don't even know. I thought I had an idea what Kane's upside was, and I think Bregman's is definitely higher than that. But Kane in this new location, maybe not. And Kane's going 93rd right now. Alex Bregman, I think, is 36th.

33rd. Alex Bregman is going 33rd right now. It's crazy. This Alex Bregman thing is crazy. Anthony Rendon is going two rounds later than Alex Bregman. That's more what I see Bregman becoming is what Anthony Rendon was last year. Let's do a few more here. In any case, Anthony Reddstone should go before him.

Anyway. Chris, we'll do one more of yours and then we'll do a couple of Scots. Go ahead and you can pick. One more of mine. Okay, I want to talk about this one. You can buy the name brand Kyle Hendricks. Or you can wait like a hundred picks and get Jamison Tyone, who everybody's just kind of forgotten about. I was tweeting about this yesterday.

We make these, you know, we've done this with Dallas Keikle a couple years ago. Or, you know, somebody last year where, oh, well, he was hurt. That's why he didn't pitch well. Jameson Tyone had cancer last year. came back and pitched poorly and we're just like, well, that's the real Jameson, that's it, that's who he is now. And it's like, this was an elite prospect who was elite at AAA, was very good in the majors last year, or in 2016 as a rookie, was very good before he had to leave the team.

And we're just like, this guy's bad. No, who's saying that? Nobody wants to draft. Okay, I know, but I think you're going a little bit too far. I would love to draft Jabes and Tayao and late. Let's not act like we're all forgetting about him. His AEP right, that was 186th. Yeah, I think it's a great point.

I would love to take a shot on him. And I think he can follow the Kyle Hendricks archetype of not necessarily being a great strikeout pitcher, although I think he's a little better than Kyle Hendricks in that regard, but has good command and control and has shown the ability to limit hard. contact. Last season, there was only one pitcher, I can't remember who, but only one pitcher had a higher difference between his stat cast derived expected Wobah and his actual Wobah. He induces a lot of weak contact. I think he's going to be Kyle Hendrix for a seven-round discount. I'm not so sure that the discount isn't more a case of people overvaluing Hendricks.

Maybe. In any case. Scott, do you have a couple you'd like to contribute? Sure, I do, Adam. Let me just remember what they are. Okay, so I had my own Anthony Rizzo comp, and it's Reese Hoskins, which I've made that comparison a few times on this podcast already. I feel like they're both, you know, probably limited to the 270 range and batting average,

but walk a lot, 35 plus Homer Power. that's like a three-round discount at least. A couple that... Like, I have Rafael Devers on my breakouts list. So I am clearly more excited about drafting Raphael Devers. I think he clearly has more upside than this other player.

But if you just project out Devers' stats from last year, which, you know, it was a fine rookie showing from Devers. Like, if he did that in his age 21 season, I think the Red Sox would be thrilled just projecting that out over a full season but he ends up looking a lot like

a Eugenio Suarez if that happens and that's an issue at most of the infield spots especially third base and second base where there are some players with more upside there are reasons to like some of these players more than others

but if you just narrow it down to most likely outcome, which is not a way I normally like to draft, but, you know, it's kind of a projections-based method of drafting. This is the player's most likely outcome. I think Devers and Suarez's are similar, and you're talking about 12 to 15 rounds of difference between them. I have another one that's not quite as extreme,

and it doesn't quite fit the name brand versus generic, but the generic version of Raphael Devers in ADP right now. Adrian Beltrane. Like, we're kind of hoping Rafael Devers' skill set evolves into what Adrian Belchray is, a high-contact power hitter in a good lineup. Yep. Now, Adrian Belchrey, 39 years old, injury-prone season last year, there's a lot of risk there. But we've seen Rafael Devers play 58 games in the majors.

He's 21 years old. There's a lot of risk there, too. And Raphael Devers is going four rounds ahead of Adrian Belchre. Scott, got one more? Yeah, this one is similar to To the last one It's it's It's Xander Bogart's and Angelton Simmons

See, yeah Simmons just like He's been such a bad hitter for almost all of his career And he was a bad hitter for a lot of last year too But go ahead, go ahead sir Well, so was Andrew Bogart's They both They both I think have

The most likely outcome for each, I think, is like 12 to 14 homers, 12 to 14 steals. They're both going to, Simmons is actually probably going to have a higher contact rate. He'll have a lower BABIP on that contact rate, but I think it could even out to about the same batting average. Obviously, Bogart's has more untapped potential than Simmons, and I think he's a little safer than Simmons. But you know what I really, what formats I really like to apply this kind of thinking to is the, the, the, the deeper formats, those ALNL-only leagues, where you're, or, you know, like a 2014 mix league, where you're basically just don't want to leave yourself with a hole anywhere, if you can get

the less trendy player, the less buzzed-about player who you could see putting up similar production to the buzzed-about player, you can get, you can wind up with a roster, like a, a stacked roster, even though it doesn't have any superstars on it, or at least has fewer superstars on it. You're just going, you're just leaving yourself with more auction dollars or whatever to, to fill out those weaker spots with players that aren't really as weak by comparison. I like the theory. I mean, it's a great point.

I just, I don't know. Like, I look at Angelton Simmons. He's been a really bad hitter for most of his career. You know, like his slugging percentage, 416, 396, 331, 338, 366, and then last year, 421. But this is a guy with a 375 career slugging percentage. Like, he's a bad hitter almost always. Last year he had a good year. But even last year, like, he had 19 steals.

He'd never stolen more than 10 bases. So, you know, probably going to run more with the Angels. But, yeah. Adam, can I give two more one that was designed to troll, Scott, and one that was designed to make him happy? Yes, but we can't analyze them. That's fine. Go on. The name brand is Jake Arietta.

The generic who will be better than him this year is Zach Gottlie. Yeah. That's for you, Scott. They're only like three spots apart in my rankings. But they're like, if ADP is showing different, then people are sleeping on Zach Godley. Which is why he's on my sleepers list. And why draft Dallas Kichel when you get Marcus Stroman like four rounds later. Whip.

It's the same guy. No, he's not. Now you're bothering me. Now I hate you. But I know you like Marcus Stroman, and you do make the comparison to Dallas Kikekel very often. So I get it, my friend. All right. Thank you for the email, Matt.

Thank you for the podcast segment. This is Gabe in Boston. Dear Scam and Kreef, can you discuss Robbie Anderson versus Aaron Nola? Gabe wants to keep Aaron Nola. He just has a feeling. Keeping Nola over Robbie Ray. What do you guys think? Oh, you said Robbie Anderson.

I was like, what's for it are we podcasting here? Sorry. Aronola is not as fast as Robbie Anderson. I mean, for keeper value, I think Robbie Ray probably has more upside. But to put it in a context that makes a little more sense for the general audience, Robbie Ray right now has ADPs two rounds higher than Aranola. That makes me want to draft Aranola. I think Robbie Ray does have more upside, but there is a lot of risk.

And I think, I don't think there's a lot of risk of Robbie Bray. There is risk of some regression with the ERA because, you know, 2016, one of the reasons we liked, one of the reasons a lot of us liked him as a breakout going into last season is because he had a terrible Babbup. It was like 350 in 2016. He overcorrected that last year, had an unusually low Babbat, about 260. And so obviously that contributed to the 289 ERA, 115 Whip. And I would expect both of those to go up a little if everything else stays the same. But I also feel like there may be some untapped potential otherwise with Robbie Ray.

You look at some of his single-game strikeout totals in the second half last year. There was a four-star stretch where he had 10, 14, 12, 10. And then they limited his innings the rest of the season, so he didn't get back to that number. but I'm not sure like I'm not sure we've seen the best of Robbie Ray yet so even if some correction happens with Babb, I think he may be able to compensate in other ways. And while Aaron Nola looks like, you know, looks like he's taking an ace turn too, I think Robbie Ray is a step and a half ahead of him. I think there's even more than two rounds difference between them. So no pitcher in baseball gets hit harder than Robbie Ray. He had a 40% hard contact rate last season.

That is the kind of thing that when we see it for a hitter, we think that's an elite hitter. He strikes everyone out, though. So he's just going to be a high variance pitcher. I think he's going to be someone who his ERA might fluctuate a run and a half every month of the season and you'll just have to live with it. But I will say, he had a 372 FIPP last season. He had a 376 FIP in 2016.

because he's a high variance pitcher, he might just keep outperforming or underperforming that by wide margins. But I think you should probably expect him to be a guy who lands in closer to the league average rate in ERA and WIP. And so at that point, you're hoping that the Diamondbacks remain good, and he wins more games. And then you're really just drafting him for strikeouts at that point. Yeah, well, you know, the WIP could be a concern, obviously, with Ray does still walk a lot of guys. How can a guy give up so much hard contact and have a low Babbat? Weird. Because he gets up a lot of home runs, and home runs don't count as balls in play, so that's part of it.

Okay, fair enough. NOLA is interesting because he's had stretches of being an ace. Like his last 18 starts, he had a 3-E-R-A. But even in those last 18 starts, he had a 4-start stretch, and 3 of those 4, you'll have 5 or more runs. And 2 of those 3 were against the Marlins. That's not going to happen this year. But Nola also, like the year before, he was just terrible. Remember, he just completely lost it.

And then he went on the DL. So I don't know if it's because he doesn't have overwhelming stuff. He only throws about 92 miles per hour. Is he going to be prone to really bad starts? Kind of like, you know, the guy in the Blue Jays. Help me out here. Marco Strata. Marco Estrada?

Yeah, yeah. He's got better stuff than Marco. Yeah. And he's a better pitcher, but is it sort of like the generic discount? I think. I think the bigger risk is probably that he's had elbow issues both seasons in the majors. I don't think we can discount that when looking at him because the profile for him looks like a pretty safe pitch. Lots of strikeouts, low walks, ground balls.

I think as long as he's healthy, he's going to be pretty good, especially because the stuff took a turn last year for the better. Okay, that's Aeronola. Next email is from Dr. Mike Tanner. Consider a pod about the tier of starting pitcher right after the top four. Have each pick their guy and a bust. All right. So after the big four, who's your guy and who's a bust? My guy is, you know, I guess since I seem to be on an island with him within the industry, is that grinky.

And I understand why he does, like he's my fifth. He's number five of that. So he's the first of that next tier for me. And I understand why he's not exciting. Like compared to some of the others, he doesn't have the same K per 9 rate. And he's, you know, he's approaching 35. I don't worry about the age so much from him, though, because he is, just because the type of pitcher is. He's not somebody who has to blow people away with pure stuff.

He's never been that. He's been more of a command specialist and who relies a lot on his secondary stuff. I don't worry about the age with him. What I like most about Zach Grinky is pretty confident. As confident as you can be for a pitcher that age, taking on that workload, that he's not going to get injured. And he was able to navigate Chase Field last year,

so I don't know what happened to him that first year there, but I don't really think there's much performance risk either. Like the danger in drafting a pitcher in the early rounds was always that he could get hurt, and then you just wasted that pick. And I feel like Granky, while he may not technically finish fifth, I'm not confident in picking who the guy is that will. And so I'd rather just take the safe one, Grinky.

I'll go the exact opposite way. Zekranke's ceiling is probably like the number seven starting pitcher and his floor is probably like number 22 or something. Give me the guy who, if everything goes right and he stays healthy, is just as good, if not better, than any of the members of the top four. No, Symmegard. Yeah.

Bet you're going to draft a lot of him, though? Because obviously my guy's DeGrom. I already said that. I'm probably not going to draft Noah Seneguard much just because my strategy this season has more been. I'm targeting one, if not two of the top four. You know who actually I really like is Carlos Carrasco. He feels kind of safe to me. I mean, it's weird you say that because last year was the first year he didn't have a DL stent.

That kind of knocked him out of that elite group. Yeah. But, you know, inning for inning, I think he's basically de Grown. Yeah, I think DeGrom will have a better ERA, but... Yeah. But I don't know that for sure. I mean, Carrasco is prone to these weird, like, terrible starts that... He's also going to be 31 on opening day, which is surprised.

It is a little surprising, but it doesn't really matter to me personally for a pitcher. But... And then who's a bust for you guys? like other than everyone. They all have bust potential. Yeah. That's the easy answer, right? Yeah.

Robbie Ray. He's 13th in ADP right now. I think he's around there in the consensus ranking. And it just, I liked Robbie Ray when I could get him as the 69th pitcher off the board. Nice. But paying for him at 13th field. I don't like paying for ceiling. And that's what you're.

I think. you're paying for the absolute best case scenario of Robbie Ray when like a Wabi way. Wabi way. When like I said, he's just a massively risky pitcher, even beyond the fact that all pitchers are inherently risky because of injury risk. Okay, he's got a bust. I'll say one. Let's take, okay, go ahead.

Look, I studied it last year. I was laughed at, scoffed at. But pitchers who pitch in the World Series often struggle the following year. And Corey Klubber, of course, won the Tsay-Young. But all of the Cubs guys kind of disappointed us, including Lester. Krazka had his best season yet. Yeah, but no, I don't count guys who had injury short in seasons. I'm talking about guys who had heavy workloads innings-wise.

Uh-huh. Justin Verlander, I mean... Oh, that's not where I thought you were going with this. He's kind of a machine. You know, he's built to pitch a lot of innings, but, I mean, there's a lot of innings on that arm, another World Series run. You've got to at least be aware of it with Verlis. You know, we didn't mention him in the last podcast because we were talking about hitters,

but Justin Verlender absolutely belongs in that discussion of old guys who could just fall off the cliff. We've seen him fall off the cliff, and then he kind of just Tom Cruise freaky climbed his way back up, but there's a lot of risk there. I'm unusually bullish on Verland. And when I say unusually, I mean, relative to. others in the industry. I'm unusually bullish on Verlander, too. He's actually number six for me right after Granky. So I feel like he's pretty safe, actually. And when I say safe, I mean,

he's going to give you 200 plus innings. And I trust that the other numbers will be close enough to Ace Caliper, that the inning's total alone will be enough to put him over the top. Maybe that's just, you know, I've referred to also. I think innings, there's a market inefficiency with innings right now in fantasy baseball and maybe that's just that playing out that idea playing out in my rankings but anyway um my bust pick among this group is actually going to be center guard why injury yeah it's it's it's a fine reason yeah uh it's but that's the guy on a per inning basis that could be you know he could be the best pitch he is the breakout pick of that group and he is the bus yeah like there there is

nobody else in that group except maybe louis severino who i think could just be the best pitcher in baseball uh you know i was going to say a really corny joke now i'm on the fence because it's kind of past but i think i was saying if if hey scott white if you had a sword you'd name it ace caliber instead of x caliber i oh i get you no i've yeah no i've actually i i i've actually Because Ace Calibur is a term I use a lot in writing, too. And I always, in my head, it sounds like Excalibur. Excalibur, yeah. All right.

I knew better than to say it out loud. Blake in Santa Barbara. Dear Mr. Peterman, Mr. Pitt, and Mr. Lipman. Is Mr. Lipman from Seinfeld, too? Yep. Okay. Elaine had a lot of bosses. Oh, okay.

Which three current closers would you predict are the first to lose their jobs? And who would take over for them? Fernando Rodney. That's always the go-to. And Addison Reed. Svin Reed would takeover for him, right? Oh, I have a good answer for this, and now I can't think of it. Texas.

Erodos Viscayino is Scott's answer. He is the Erotus Viscayano doubter. No, it's Alex Claudio. We just said this. Sure. Yes, Alex Claudio. I don't trust him at all to keep the job, and I think Keonee is better. Erotis Viscayino.

I think he could be a fine closer, but A.J. Mentor could be an unbelievable Craig Kimbril over-closer. Kelvin Herrera. Yeah, okay, perfect. That's fine. We're done. Let's move on. Okay. Let's see. All right, here's an email that must be read. It is from Zach. Hey, Terry, Bobby, John, and Alex. Terry. Redstocks managers. Oh, nice. Did not get that.

First question. I missed the theme song. Whether it's we didn't start Mike Fires or Kokomo. Bring them back. What happened? Well, we retire them temporarily, but we will have a. a new theme song soon, and we will probably have a new parody theme song soon. So don't worry. That's coming back. Why'd you have to retire? I was asked to. Oh. Oh. Yes. Yes. Well, well. Second. Well, Chris is my boss now. Chris could tell me what to do. Second question. When are you starting your position previews? Looks like Tuesday after

President's Day will be the start of our position previews. So put that on your calendar and tell your friends. When is that? That is the 11 days from today? The 20th. That is the day we are also having our NL-only Roto auction. That'll be a fun day.

I am so happy I'm not in that. It's the worst. I can't, like... It's the worst draft. We have this really fun auction in the, like... It's like a party. It's like a party. You and Heath...

30-man... You and Heath... Al and I used to treat it like a party. And you and Heath are like, oh, if you bring some pizza in balloons, maybe I'll like it for. Oh, I think I might get pizza tonight. I might get pizza at night. And I would like to tell people, since you care so much about pop culture and our movie choices, I watched three billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri last night. Did you guys see it?

Yeah, that was it. Well, it's very heavy. It's not like a feel-good movie, but it's good, really, like, really good. I love all the people in it. They're amazing. All are amazing. I'm a, Sam Rockwell is great. Dude, what is he from?

Francis McDormon is a national treasure. She's great. But what is his name, Sam Rockwell? Sam Rockwell. What is he from? I was killing me the whole night. I would guess his biggest role is probably the Charlie's Angels movie, the first one. Really?

That's not what I know Sam Rockwell. He was in The Way Way Back? Yes! Yes. God, that movie's incredible. How great is that movie? Yeah, that movie's great. Hitchhiker's Guide.

He is phenomenal in the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. All right, let's do some combos and some player to be. I put these up on Twitter, so let's get started. Also, the new 50 Shades of Grey movie is coming out soon, so everybody's excited for that. Would you rather have Manny Machado or Carlos Correa? The Twitter followers say they'd rather have Machado 56% to 44%. Hmm. Well, that's not what I think.

That's certainly not what consensus rankings show. that's not with my own ranking show. I get it. I think, yeah, I've actually struggled with this idea, too. I've talked about it on the podcast where, you know, if we go ahead and assume shortstop eligibility for Machado, would I rank him ahead of Correa? And my gut reaction is to say yes,

but, I mean, Coray was just so much better than last year that I kind of don't want to either. Not only was Coria better than him last year, if you take Machado's best season, and you take Correa's season last year and give him like 155 games because he only played 109, it would have been better than Machado's best season, which... Although that's making a lot of assumption. And it's also just, it's a completely different offensive environment.

Completely different? Yeah. But, I mean, we've only seen two-thirds of a season where Correa was better than Machado. Yes. I don't think it's an easy answer at all. All right. Let's say you think the answer is Carlos Correa, and you want him. What you should probably do is wait until Carlos Correa or Manny Machado gets drafted and then take whichever one's left.

I don't know that you can do that, though. Yeah, it's going to be... You can't do that. Maybe you could. You're not going to get it on the way back. It's going to have... I'm talking about in auctions, guys. Okay.

Well, in auctions. Fair enough. Yeah, I mean... You can't do that. If you wait until the second one in an auction, there's a scarcity that's created and he could potentially go for more. So what's your answer? What's your answer? I would rather have Correa.

Chris? I'd probably rather have Machado. I guess I'll probably take Machado, but it is close. All right, next one. Andrew Benintendi, Kras Davis, or Tommy Fam. I knew Benintendi would win. I wanted to see by how much. Andrew Benintendi, Chris Davis with a K or Tommy Fam,

and Benintendi got 54% of the vote. Kris Davis got 22%, and Tommy Fam got 24%. I think the good news is that Baltimore's Chris Davis is bad enough now where we don't have to specify who we're talking about. So that's done. But yeah, Ben Intendi runs away with it, guys. And who's your favorite here? I'm sure it's Benintendi, right? No, it's Sam for me.

Oh. I'm feeling a little, like, about Benintendi the way I do about Breggman, where just like everyone is so high on him that there are just, there are guys who will probably do exactly what he does who aren't going to get drafted in the same range. And I'd rather just wait. I mean, FAM was better than Ben and Tendi last year. Fam was better last year than either of those other players have ever been. And there's reason to be skeptical. I get it of FAM and whether he can do that again.

But it was, like I've said before with FAM, he did so many different things well that even if he doesn't quite measure up in one of those areas next year, still going to be a stunt. The thing that makes it easy for me in terms of drafting is why invest an early fourth round pick and Andrew Benintendi when Christian Yowicz is going to be there 20 spots later or Tommy Fam is going to be their 20 spots later

like Ben and Tendi might be better than those guys but it's probably not worth that gap is that what ADP is showing that he's going 20 picks early 20 picks ahead of 24 picks ahead of Christian Yalich because I actually rank both FAM and Yelish ahead of Benintending again I don't know Chris

I'll throw out Lorenzo can Why do we think Lorenzo Cain's going to be that much worse than Andrew Benintendi? He's going 60 spots later. He's a lot older and never has had a lot of power. But also keep in mind about ADP, it hasn't fully reflected the change to the brewers for either Cain or for Yelich. I don't buy that Yelich is going to go 20 spots after Benintendi anymore. If he were still with the Marlins, maybe. But now I think it's reasonable to take him ahead.

How long have people been drafting? I don't know. I don't know when that started. Well, the most recent mock draft we did. which was after the... Yeah, what happened there. It was a roto league, and Yelich went 66th. Wow.

Well, points is probably a better format for him, but also... It would be a better format for Benintendi. It would be. They're very similar players, aren't they? Right. I had him as one of the name brand, Benintendi as the name brand, and Christian Yelich is the generic. Yeah, Yelich is going to be undervalued if that's the case, if that's where he ends up going. All right, and also, just to finish it off, Davis, 260 batting average, 40 home runs.

No, not 260. 247, that's the problem. 247 average in 42 or 43 home runs, two straight years. He's been a top 15 outfielder in points. He's been a top 13 outfielder in Roto, two straight years. So it's not crazy to take him ahead of those guys. Like if you draft Jose Altuve and then another really good batting average guy with your first two picks, you might take Chris Davis and get those 40 home runs.

Could have a really strong lineup around him. Yeah, right. I really like the collection of guys that Oakland has put together. They could have like three or four, 35 homer guys. Here's another combo. Charlie Blackman and Elvis Andrews is not the first combo, actually, Charlie Blackman and Elvis Andrews or Christian Yewitch and Carlos Correa. So one's got the elite shortstop, one's got the first round outfielder.

It's Blackman and Andrews or Yelich and Correa. Who would you rather have? I'll go Blackman and Andrews. I will go Yelich and Kareh. I would definitely take that. And so with the Twitter's 78% Karea and Yelich, you dummy Chris. Do people, no, no, I'm going to go. I'm with Chris.

Oh, wow. Do people think Karea is better than Blackman? That's the question I need to answer to start with, because I don't. I think Blackman's a lot better than Karea. No, I think you have to add a huge positional adjustment. to get Correy even close to Black. No, if this was just Black men and Correa, I'm pretty sure we'd come back 85% Black.

I think that people feel Yellich is a lot better than Andrews. And that's fair. Andrews has only done it for one, well, he was the number one shortstop like three of the last four years? Well, that's the thing. Like, Andrews has been a top two or three shortstop pretty frequently in his career, but I think it's been a lot of cases of taking advantage of Troy Toulouitzky injuries when Toulouwitsky was the only shortstop worth owning. Yeah.

But last year he was pretty much just as good as Francisco Lindor. Yeah, last year he hit for power for the first time. And, yeah, I mean, I don't, I think Andrews is undervalue because everybody assumes he's just going to regress to eight home runs or whatever. I think it'll regress some, but I'm pegging him for about 16 next year. and with the steals and with everything else, it'll still be borderline elite at a thin position. And Blackman is a big, like, Blackman is clearly a class above Correa.

If he just continues what he did a year ago, he was the best, he was the best hitter. And that breakout happened at the All-Star break in 2016, which is when we believe the juiced ball happened, right? Oh, I'm not sure. I think you're talking about Charlie Blackman's breakout? Yeah, but the, He basically, what he did last year, he had done the first half the previous year.

It's kind of like Daniel Murphy a couple years ago. Right. But you know, full seasons are better indicators than half seasons, Chris. That's true. That's true. We should just take his full season last year. Last one. Would you rather have an upgraded third base or an upgraded starting pitcher?

Anthony Rendon and Madison Bumgarner or Josh Donaldson and Carlos Martinez? Rendon and Bumgarner or Donaldson and Martinez. This is the easiest combo for me. It's Rendon and Bumgarner. I think there's a chance you're getting the better player in both. Yep, exactly. In fact, my initial rankings had Rendon ahead of Donaldson. When I first put them together in November or whatever it was,

I since talked myself back at Donaldson over Rendon, but it's a very thin line for me, and I think people are underrating Rendon if they choose the other side. Yeah, I think Rendon is way, way underrated. now. Okay, but at their best, if last year was the best of Anthony Rendon, it's not even close. It's not even close to the best of Josh Donaldson. It's 100 fantasy points less. That's a major deal. That's fair. So I didn't think it was that easy, especially because Bumgarner carries some risk.

Yep. You know, I didn't think it was that easy. In fact, I think I might rather have Donaldson and Martinez. But, yeah, I don't know. It is close. I guess I underrated Anthony Rendon. I'm probably guilty of that. I think everyone is, like, this is a guy who's been, you know, he was down in 2016, but going into 2016, I remember him being like a, he was like a second or third round kind of pick, wasn't he?

Because he had shortstop eligibility, I believe. No, he didn't have shortstop. No, he was second base. Second base, right. It was. It was a different landscape. Yeah, it was coming off of the 2014 season that he was. So.

He took a step back. He was hurt in 2015. He took a step back in 2016. But they both were bad years. He played 80 games in 2015 and 1506 2016. They weren't that good. So I'm not just completely willing to say Rendon is

what he was last year, which is still not even close to Donaldson. Okay. I would say Rendon, like he had more walks than strikeouts last year, 84 to 82. Yeah. Which was clear him. I mean, he'd always been a good

plate discipline guy, but that was some underlying improvement that should help validate everything else. And I would also say that he, say you don't play in a format that counts that, fine. We're drafting Chris Brian ahead of Josh Donaldson, right?

I mean, Brian and Rendon basically had the same year last year. And I understand that was kind of our low expectations for Brian and maybe that's the best Rendon will ever do. But I still think you're talking about. I still think you're talking about a thin line. Like Rendon is definitively elite at the position.

He hit, what, 25 home runs last year? Yep. You're not elite at third base if you have 25 home runs. If you do all the other things he does, you are. He only sold seven bases. It's not even close. He's not even close. Only 81 runs.

That's low in that line. It's not even close. I mean, just like, to call him elite at third base, which has some amazing hitters, like, he was, he was 86, 88 fantasy points behind No one, number one. And that's maybe the best case scenario for Renon. known, it's not even close to elite. See, I just, I don't think it's the best case scenario for him. Well, that could be.

I think he's, I think he's a legitimate, like, 295 true talent hitter based on what he showed last year. Yep. And when you say 295 true talent, I think that means that your upside could be 315, 320. Well, that would be nice. And if you're comparing him to Aeronado, I guess he's a tier below Aeronado, but I don't want to put Aeronado in his own.

tier. I think it's pretty obvious. Nobody's drafting any third baseman, but Aeronado first at the position. Right, but Chris Bryant was much better in 2016 than Rendon was in 2015, or 17, excuse me. I don't... It just comes down to home runs, guys. If he hits 25 home runs, then he's, you know, could be a very, very good player, but I don't think he can be an elite player. I think it's a moot point. because nobody's drafting him as that guy anyway.

Was Cody Bellinger an elite player? I don't know. You kept saying how much you didn't need him last year at Outfield. I'm serious. Like, was Cody Bellinger an elite player? Yeah. I don't know. On a fair game base is Rendon in points leads.

Rendon was the same as Bellinger. So, you know, obviously there was a home run difference there, but Rendon was making up for it another way. So for me, I just, I think that. the discussions moot because Josh Donaldson's going to be drafted two or three rounds ahead of Anthony Rendon pretty much every time out. Regardless of what you specifically feel about Anthony Rendon and whether he's elite and whether he belongs in the Chris Bryant tier or in the Justin Turner tier or he's, I think he's clearly

being undervalued. I don't think there's, I don't think there's an argument against it and I can't understand why he's only going in this range. Where does he go? 55th. That's crazy. That is crazy. I don't think it's that crazy.

I mean, I don't know. I think he's, I think Rendon is probably crazy in a points league. In a Roto league? He was crazy in both. He was the number five player in Roto last year. He's my 32nd Roto player. Okay. All right.

Well, then let's finish off with, well, now we're pretty much done. I didn't realize that long we had gone. Here's an email from Grant. in a 10-team AL-only Roto League that allows three keepers, is Lance McCullors worth keeping? No, probably not. Nope. From Bill, what's the draw of AL-only and-L-only leagues?

Go deeper in the player pool. Some people don't like the idea of every roster looking like an all-star team. I think they're more susceptible to luck, because you're basically eliminating the impact of the waiver wire. and, you know, if a key player gets hurt, you're just kind of stuck. Okay. Moving on, next question. Justin from Michigan.

Kyle Swarber is catcher eligible in Yahoo Leagues. Where should he be ranked among catchers? Well, if you played on CBS, you wouldn't have this problem. But I would probably rank him fourth or fifth at catcher. I'd rank him ahead of Gattis. It's just Salvador Perez I'm not sure about. But behind Sanchez, Posey, and Contreras. I would guess Heath would have to rank him third because that's where he has Evan.

Gaddis. But I agree in the top five range. And final question from Greg. I have a chance to trade Danny Duffy for Eddie Rosario in a 24 team keeper league. Give up Duffy, get Eddie Rosario, yes or no? I think it's harder to find the pitcher who goes seven innings consistently than, you know, a decent batting average 20 to 25 homer outfielder. I'd stick with Duffy. Guys, thank you very much. Great show today. Appreciate it. Everybody have yourself a wonderful weekend. We got four episodes for you next week. We'll talk to you on Monday.