Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/11: Lindor Injury; Early Picks to Avoid; Picks 11-20 Breakdown (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 11, 2019

How far has Francisco Lindor fallen in our rankings? Has he fallen at all? We start the show with a Lindor discussion, early-round picks we're avoiding (7:05) and late-round picks we're loving (13:24) ... One reason you might actually draft Mookie Betts over Mike Trout (17:15). Plus a Raisel Iglesias note (23:30) and the potential impact of the DH in the National League (28:50)... Let's go through picks 11-20 with pros and cons for each pick (34:00). Players we cover include Alex Bregman, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado and Aaron Judge ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Oh no, we already have our first major injury of the 2019 fantasy baseball season. And it's the guy that many of you are taking with the top four pick. It's Francisco Lindor.

he's out two months. So let's talk about that. Let's talk about a little bit of Mike Trout versus Mokey Betts. Some early round picks we love, some late round picks we don't love, some late round picks we do love, and a lot more. Welcome, everybody. It is Monday. It is February 11th. We're going to start position previews later this week and continue them for probably about two more weeks after that. I'm Adam Azer with Scott White and Heath Cummings. All right, big question. Scott will start with you. Did you move Francisco Lin, down in your rankings? I most certainly did, Adam. I don't like the sound of a calf strain at all,

particularly when the initial diagnosis is seven to nine weeks. That sounds like a pretty severe strain for Lindor, which I think only increases the possibility of a setback, increases the possibility of returning at less than full capacity. So on our last show Friday, we were talking about, oh, he has to be number four overall. He's still in my first round. He's still my number one shortstop, but I've moved him down to eight, I believe it is, trying to pull up my rankings here.

And my biggest concern beyond the ones I've already mentioned, the possibility of a setback, et cetera, even if he does come back on time, full capacity, I have a hard time believing they're going to let him run like he did last year. I think 25 steals. We were already questioning whether that could happen again. I think he's probably going to end up running less than ever, because why risk it? Peace. No risk it, no biscuit, like Scott likes to say. Yeah, you have to drop him down. I agree with Scott.

I'm leaving him in the first round. I think I have him a few spots lower, actually. I've got him at 11, I think, 11 and 12. But it's no good. It's no good. I mean, we've seen calf injuries linger in the past for sure. All right, so now we're going to take Aeronado. It sucks.

You sound truly pained there. I have the fourth pick in the only league that I actually know which pick I have. I have, of course, the fourth pick. So this complicates things. Well, I think on Friday you were saying you could make an argument for Altuvae over Lendor. Now you can make a pretty easy argument. Yeah, yeah. Although I have Aeronado fourth now.

It's probably going to be one of those two guys. and I think I would even consider Scherzer. But hopefully I get lucky in Jose Ramirez Falls or something like that. So, J.D. Martinez or Francisco Lindor? Martinez. Martinez. So the four I moved ahead of Lindor were Aronado Altuvae Martinez and Scherzer. So the three you mentioned and then also Martinez.

Okay. Now, think about this. Shortstop. So deep. So good. we love shortstop. Your 12th ranked shortstop, both Scott and Heath is Glaber Torres. 13, Jose Parraza.

I'm looking at Rodo right now. 14th, Elvis Andrews for Scott and Paul DeYoung for Heath. It's a deep position. You got Juerks and Profar available, Angelton Simmons, et cetera. But two of the top three, Lindor and Bregman, are banged up right now. So what does that mean for the shortstop position?

in general. I'm probably more likely to not take a shortstop in the first round. Yeah, I mean, there's a good incentive not to do that just because of that depth. And then the fact that they're my top two, I think you could have Machado in that mix, too. I actually have them going consecutively now, Lendor, Bregman, and Machado. But that's all the more reason why you can wait and take advantage of that depth. That said, if any of them slips to the second round, because of concerns, that's going to be too much value for me to pass up.

Other big news. We'll do some mock drafts and we'll figure it out. We've got a shortstop preview coming up. So we'll talk a lot more about Lindor, but there's your quick analysis of it. Kyler Murray is playing football. So there's that. Sorry to the Oakland A's losing that first round pick. And we still don't have a Bryce Harper signing or a Mani Machado signing or a Dallas Kichol signing.

But remember, four of the five largest. offseason contracts last year were handed out February 13th or later. That would be Hosmer, Darvish, J.D. Martinez, and Areietta. Lorenzo Kane was another one in that top five in terms of largest offseason contracts. He signed on January 25th. There's actually a great story up on CBSports.com. It's a spring training preview. It's got some position battles to think about, new managers, stuff like that, prospects to watch.

If you're a baseball fan, you'll love it. Go to CBSports.com slash MLB. A couple things to promote real quick. Hey, let's actually, let's promote ourselves. Follow us on Twitter. I am at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R. Scott is at... CBS-Wite.

CBS Scott White. Rood. And Heath is at Heath Cummings, SR, Heath Cummings, Senior. And Chris is at C-Towers, CBS. Only follow him if he's the only person that you want to read tweets from. No, just kidding. Follow Chris. He's actually very interesting on Twitter.

Man, you are so... I like this. We got a beginning of the show insulting everyone buddies. And Chris actually has a great... I don't know if he wrote it, but somebody... Who wrote the column about the stuff? The stuff? Like, measuring a pitcher stuff.

Oh. It wasn't Chris. He was telling me who it was. I can't remember now. So Chris is going to come on to talk about it tomorrow. But we've got a column. Like basically measuring stuff, like how good a pitcher's stuff is, and that's really cool. Is it Aaron Sosseda?

Okay, great. That's who I believe it is, yes. Aaron Sosseda, one of several writers who are going to be contributing for us at cbsports.com and also sportsline.com this season. And you can follow him on Twitter if you want to at Roto Pope. Oh, that's a cool name. Also, don't forget about the fantasy regulators. You're familiar with last year's show.

We did the fantasy regulators. We regulate your league issues. We play the regulators' music. It's awesome. And we'll do some this week. Let's talk about one early round pick. You are avoiding Heath Cummings. Who are you avoiding in the early rounds?

Javier Baez. Everything went perfectly for him last year. In fact, you might say he got just a little bit lucky. I looked at it, and I really think in the five roto categories, he is going to be worse in every single one than he was in 2018. And his current ADP is right around the end of the first round, start of the second, ahead of Jose Al-Tube. That's crazy town banana pants. That is so crazy.

I wonder if there's one industry analyst that would take Javier Baez in the first round. I'm guessing no. He was the number 14 hitter in points league's number seven in Roto. There must be someone for him to have that ADP. Who? I don't get it. Okay. I'm going to pull up the 2019.

consensus fantasy baseball rankings on fantasy pros and just tell you who would take him in the first round as soon as I can find it. Scott, who's an early round pick you're avoiding? So bias is normally my go-to here, but fortunately on my bus column for this year, I have several early rounders, really taking some big swings in that.

And Clayton Kirshall is going to be my choice here because not only did we see him continue the pattern of falling well short of an ace workload. Can't even trust him for 180 innings because of those consistent back issues. But the last two seasons has really begun to impact his performance, too. The velocity's been on the decline. He averaged less than a strikeout per inning last season. And Dr. Mike Tanner, now of fan graphs, had a nice piece about this this offseason.

Remember, Dr. Tanner was the one who, uh, predicted Daniel Murphy would be back much later last season than the timetable the nationals were giving, and that turned out to be true. But basically, the body has a way of protecting itself when it's injured, unbeknownst to the person. Muscles don't act as forcefully. So if the Dodgers don't go out of their way to manage his workload with those DLC, stents periodically. He's going to throw less and less hard until, I mean, it could get worse. It could get worse, and it could get worse fast. I read that article, yeah, it was a good article.

And, yeah, I just don't think you're going to expect the innings. Now, let me see where Kershaw's ADP is. It's 33, 34. So, you know, we're starting to get toward the end of the third round, and Clayton Kershaw is still there. The next pitcher's off the board are seven. Verino, Bauer, Cindergarde, Bueller. At what point is it okay to take Clayton Kershaw? I wouldn't want to take them there, not with those other guys still on the board. I think maybe not inning for inning.

I mean, maybe inning for inning they'll be better. There's a good enough chance of that. And then I expect them to throw a lot more innings, too. Yeah, I'm pretty fine with them in that range. And I do want to go back just because this is going to be so much fun. Adam, I would like for you to take a guess or two. because there is one person on fantasy pros who currently has Javier Baez ranked in the top 10 overall. And he is someone that you know.

Al Malkyor? You're very, very close. Nando? It is Nando. That's awesome. Wow. Nando, I got to make fun of him. I'm going to text him right now.

That is great. I hung out with Nando this weekend. If I had only known this two days ago, I would have made fun of him. All right, so we've got Baez for Heath. We got Kershaw for Scott. I am nervous to give my answer. I don't think I want to take Cory Kluber this year. He's pitched two years in a row with an injury.

He went on the injured list, not the disabled list. Two years ago, he pitched through it last year. I don't know. He's getting up there in age. I think I'd rather wait like two rounds and take. Severino, Bauer, the guys we just talked about. I mean, it was called the disabled list at the time. I know, I don't know what to say about that,

because apparently it's offensive to call it the disabled list. I mean, he led the AL innings last year. He did. He did not go on the IL, the DL, but he pitched through an injury, and he didn't pitch as well. He started to show a little bit of crack. You know, last 19 games he had a 367 ERA. He's 33 years older.

He will be in April. It's not that I don't like Cory Klooper It's just that I'm not convinced I think there's more downside than there's ever been And I just think I want to wait at that point Can we do team name Tuesday on a Monday? Sure Can we get like a Dodgers blue

Background and your team name is licensed to ill Because all they do is put people on the IL Okay, yeah, I license to IL I like that, that's good That's good I'm a little torn on Glover this year because there were some indicators of like a loss of dominance last year. Strikeout rate was down, swinging strike rate was considerably down. But that was coming off his most dominant season ever in 2017.

And there was an, he kind of went back to some old habits last year, not featuring his curveball nearly as often as he did in that 2017. 17 season, which brought him to new heights. So I kind of feel like he regressed back to who he was before then, which was still an early round ace, more so than he's just getting old and he's on the decline. But it's just a theory, and it could be an age thing. So I'm a little reluctant to take him too before, like, late rounds two, maybe even round three. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

I think if I had two picks and then Corey Klooper were available, I definitely feel better about it. Give me a late round pick that you're loving, Heath Cummings. I've talked about this guy plenty, so we'll make it quick, but as crazy as you guys think I am about where my Jake Bowers is ranked, he's going 248th overall in drafts.

I do think he has a ton of upside. I do think the order could help him a lot, better environment. I like Jake Bowers. Scott. I love him. Okay, good. So there's a player I've drafted late in every single league, and it's also a

first baseman, and is name's Luke Voight. I love Luke Voight. The backup to Greg Bird? I mean, I've talked about him a lot too, but I just think he's perfectly suited for Yankee Stadium. Obviously, it was a ridiculous stretch he was on at the end of last season, and he can't

quite sustain that pace, but if he is the everyday first baseman, as often as he hits the ball out to right field, I think 30 homers are a reasonable starting point. And I think he'll hit for average too because he's such a good line drive hitter. So I think it's potentially

a top six to eight first baseman there in the late rounds, the big if being do the Yankees stick with him when they have a couple of players who aren't so suited for the positions they're manning defensively and may ultimately wind up in first base in Miguel Andohar and Gary Sanchez.

Yeah, if the Yankees signed Manny Machado. I think there's a chance and Duhar moves over to first base. So we'll keep that of mind and they are apparently still in on Machado. So Jake Bowers for Heath, Luke Voight, for Scott. I'm going to give a name that I just actually read his name

in the CBS story, the spring training preview that I was just referencing. Greg Allen. This guy's going in like the late 300s. He could be a starting outfielder for the Indians. He stole 21 bases in 91 games. After the All-Star break, he stole 15 bases and 46 games. He's not a hitter,

although he did hit 310 after the All-Star break with a 379 OBP. Again, like, he could be your last pick and might steal 30 bases, maybe more. Greg Allen of the Indians is he on anybody's radar right now? Should he be? He's not on my radar. But maybe he should be. I think when I first made out my ranking, It was pretty early in the offseason. I figured, okay, the Indians are going to do something about this outfield. But now that we're a couple weeks from the start of spring training, maybe I need to revisit that. Let's just take a moment to Marvel in the Indians' current outfield.

It's terrible. Leonis Marteen, Greg Allen, Tyler Naquin, and Jordan Luffalo. Yeah, I'm telling you, Greg Allen can run, man. Although I got to be honest, I didn't look at his minor league numbers, but do I need to? 15 steals and 46 games after the all-star break. And I remember talking about him a decent amount, you know, at the end of last year as a steals guy. Yeah, he had a couple 45 steel seasons in the minors. Yes.

Love it. Honestly, looking at his minor league track record, he looks pretty similar to Michael Brantley, which is higher than you're even aiming for. But he was a good strike zone controller, hit for average guy in the minors, in addition to the speed. You're going to impress right now. You guys are like, wow, Azer. Nice.

Yeah, I do need to revisit him. All right. Thanks for putting them on my radar. The early round picks were avoiding Javier Baez, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Klooper, bias for Heath and Scott. Klobner was my pick. Late round pick, we're loving.

Heath said Jake Bauer. Scott said Luke Voight. Adam said Greg Allen and blew everyone's mind. The reason you might actually take Mookie Betts over Mike Trout. There's only one person who's doing that. Heath, are you the only person

on fantasy pros thinking bets over Trout? I believe I'm the only person in the entire industry. That's worldwide, solar system-wide. Do they have us on fantasy pros yet? No.

Yeah. Okay. They're sleeping over there. Sleeping on the job. We're only CBS. We're not worth including. Wow. Scott is a little salty over that.

There is one. One number, one stat that I found, a category, let's say, that I think actually makes this a pretty damn good argument. Heath, what do you think, if there were one thing, a number, a sentence, whatever, one thing that gives you, you know, the guts to take Betts over Trout? What is it? Well, just the fact that Mookie Betts has been the best player in fantasy two of the last three years, and Mike Trout hasn't been in the last five years. So let's talk about three years ago. I'm going to support that. Let's talk about three years ago.

And Trout's OPS was nearly a thousand points higher than Mookie Betz. That's not sure. Oh, it was. It was like 80. A hundred points. A hundred. Yeah. Sorry.

So how was it that Mookie Betts Heath? How was it that Betts scored more fantasy points? and ranked ahead of Mike Trout three years ago. I would assume it's because he's in the best offense in baseball and had 235 combined runs in RBI. Yes, and it basically comes down to the one thing, the one stat that I think justifies it is plate appearances. Because Betts could have maybe 40 more plate appearances that Mike Trout,

like I think he did last year. And it's a big deal. Because last year, the Red Sox, in fact, the two years that Betts was the number one player in fan, fantasy. The Red Sox were first and runs. And in those two years, the Angels were 17th and 15th. Actually, it might change a little bit this year, though, because Betts is going to bat second instead of first. So the plate appearances might go down just a bit. But Trout's a better player. Betts is going to come to the plate more often. Scott, does that number mean? Does that change your mind a little bit?

Make it more justifiable to take bets? I'm just trying to see how big of a difference it is, really. So there are a couple times 2015, 2016, where it was like 30 difference, right? 30 more played appearances? Last year it was only 16.

Okay, so it was three years ago, I think it was 39, I think? Yeah, okay. Try usually bet second, right? Yes, and Betts was batting first. Now he's batting second, so maybe this is a completely stupid conversation now. I would guess Betz has more, but it might be like a dozen more.

If I was setting an over-under, I might set it at a dozen. So now maybe that's one reason why it's dumb to take Betts Heath. Now that he's going to bat second, he's going to lose that big advantage over Trout. No, because the Red Sox are still going to go through their order more times than the Angels do. Betts had 49 more played appearances than Mike Trout in 2016. When Trout had like such an amazing year in 2016, let me just give you the stats. The slash line.

315, 441 on base, 550 slugging. 991 OPS and he did not even finish as the number one player in fantasy. All right. I just want to get that off my chest. I think you're right, Adam. You've made two very good contributions to this show already. Here's a third. Here's a Twitter poll.

inspired by my lack of knowledge about who the Blue Jays manager is. So I posted a poll. Please answer honestly and only respond to this Twitter poll if you consider yourself a baseball fan. Do you know who the Blue Jays manager is? It's not John Gibbons. Only 12% have said yes out of now 905 votes and counting. Yeah, I had no idea. I completely forgot.

It's Charlie Montoya. How did people forget about Charlie Montalue? Yeah. Good good Googling there, Heath. Eight seasons is the manager of the Durham Bulls. Ah, of course. He's a professional baseball player back in the 70s. Now he gets his chance.

90s. He was the Ray's bench coach, I believe. At 400 RBI in his career. We'll see if they start using some openers. So, yeah, I just thought that was funny. Like, people just don't know the new managers. Even I struggle with side. I mean, I forget about them.

Blue Jay's manager, okay, whatever. So let's take a break here real quick. back talk about news and notes, read some emails, and get through picks 11 and 20 with pros and cons for drafting each one. Coming back right after this. So the news and notes, the Giants are serious about Bryce Harper, if they've offered him a short-term deal. We'll react when this stuff actually breaks. But again, we don't want him to go there. That would be awful. Big stinking park. A great place for a left-handed slugger.

Ryssel Iglesias may not close in every save situation for the... the Reds. Didn't we hear this last year too? Yes. Well, I think why there's a little more smoke this time is because the Reds pitching coach was the Brewers pitching coach last year and he was

one of the people most instrumental for putting Josh Hader in the role he is and that's kind of how he sees Eglacius. So I'm concerned here. I think it's reason to drop Iglesias outside of the top 15 relievers. He didn't exactly... He had nine games last year that he pitched in where he did not finish the game.

So I saw a crazy stat. Well, yeah, Jared Hughes had seven saves. He had 30. So he wasn't as exclusive of a closer as most. But I don't even know how this is possible. So Iglesias threw 72 innings last year. 37 in saves situations, 35 and non-save situations. I guess they probably just didn't have enough save situations and he had to get some work

at other times. I think they, I'll look, because I think this maybe was part of the plan at the beginning of the year last year. And I'm trying to see how many of his performances, his innings were not in the ninth inning. So there was a plan last year to use him as a multi-inning. like still the closer, but because there would be he would be used more multiple

innings more often than most closers, he might not get the chances as consistently. But I don't think either of those happen so much. When I was writing up Iglesias for the reasons for drafting and reasons not to draft them, I didn't see too many multi-inning appearances.

But, obviously, different management now. And this is what they're saying. So we'll see. He was used 15 times, it looks like 19 times in the eighth inning.

He was also used 15 times in a tie game. So it was a little bit not untraditional. So Iglesias, we're about to do the relief pitcher preview later this week, so you'll probably hear me use this line, but he's basically the Karis Davis

of closers. He is remarkably consistent. Three straight years with an ERA between 238 and 253, 72 to 78 in the third innings. Basically the same walk rate right around 3.1, three straight years. Strikeout rates fluctuate a little bit, 9.5 to 10.9 over those three years as a closer, or not necessarily as a closer, but as a reliever.

WIP between 107 and 1.14. The home runs were up last year. He had a crazy high home run to high fly ball rate, but I assume that would probably come down. Bottom line, he's really good. But he has not cracked the 30 save mark. So where has Iglesias finished? Well, in 2017, he was number 11 in points, number 13 in Roto among relief pitchers,

if you remove Sparps, which I think we should for the sake of this argument. And last year, he was ninth and points, 12th in Roto. So, you know, top nine, top 12, something like that. Just if he's not going to save more than like 35 games, and he's never saved more than 30, it's going to put a little bit of a ceiling on Eglacius. Where do you guys have him ranked? Iglesias currently?

Yeah. Well, like I said, I'm going to look into dropping him out at the top 15. I think I have them. You have 14, Scott. You have him 14. I've got them 10th. Well, it'll be really easy to move him outside of the time. Yes, it will.

But I don't see one guy behind him that's a lock for 30 saves. That's the problem. Is LeClerc behind him? No, LeClerc, I have ahead of him already. You shot LeCler. So, directly behind, okay, so he's already down there with Josh Hader. Yeah. And then the first closer behind him is Will Smith at 17.

Then Cody Allen. Cody Allen's pretty close to a lock, but I don't think he's very good. Right, that's why he's not a lock. Yeah. All right, well, I mean, it's, at the end of the day, if the reds are better, than what they've been. And they should be. And they should because they've been last place two years in a row while Glacius is closed.

And they probably tried harder to get better than any team this offseason. I still think, you know, maybe he ends up around 30 saves and he's around 12, you know? Maybe. I mean, it just, like, if it's truly the Josh Hater role, Hater was third on the Brewers and saves last year, you know. Yeah, that would be bad. All right. More news, minor league stuff. The giant signed Stephen vote to a minor league contract.

although Buster Posey may not be ready for the start of the season, so you might see vote. The Brewer signed Brett Lorry, the pirate sign Malki Cabrera, the Royal signed Homer Bailey, and the Mets sign Danny Espinoza. And wake me up when something important happens. Email of the day number one is from Joe, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Joe says when discussing the potential addition of the DH in the National League in the future, I'm surprised no one mentioned the impact on an NN. NL pitchers strikeouts, which would surely go down and likely ERA, which would go up. I don't want to have a position scarcity debate, but if we're adding at-bats and more counting

stats for hitters, then surely pitchers become more valuable. What do you think? Surely pictures become. I don't know. I think maybe like if the NL pitcher pool, all of a sudden these guys are worse, then maybe these stud pitchers become more valuable? I think that makes sense. It is worth noting, yeah.

Does that impact you from a dynasty standpoint or something like that? Well, I think the very best pitchers are going to be great no matter what. I mean, we don't. Well, I'm trying to think of a good example of an ace that went from the NL to the AL recently. I can take a few examples of the opposite. But like if you're missing a lot of bats and you're eating a lot of. of innings you're going to be an ace regardless of which league you're pitching in but yeah in that lower you go to the next tier of pitchers and certainly the tier after that and it could get it could get a

little hairy it could uh i i think it would probably increase that gap between the halves and the half knots which seemed a little smaller than this year than it was the previous two years i'm presuming we're not going to have d h and n out this year it seems too late to end with that uh gear Cole is an ace who went from the NL of the AO. Yes. Except he wasn't an ace until he went to the AAL. He got much better, but there are other reasons for that. So one of the interesting things I read about this is in the New York Post.

And the Mets apparently, one of the reasons they acquired Robinson Canoe was they're thinking that at some point soon there's going to be a DH. So that would help a guy like Canoe for sure. I don't know why they'd want to put Cano there, though, because he's still a plus defender. Not yet. Not yet. But down the line. For the rest of his contract. Yeah, yeah, yeah, at some point.

Yeah. At some point. So that's another thing to think about if you've got some aging players in the National League that seem like good fits for the D.L. That might help their value big time in Dynasty Leagues. Email the day number two is from Adam. After listening to the J.T. Reamuto discussion, I began thinking about the fact that all ballparks have various outfield depths. Then I realized, this makes no sense. In basketball, there aren't different three point lines or free throw lines.

In football, it's always 100 yards. You get my point. Can anyone please explain why this is a thing in baseball? If we're talking about adding the DH to the NL to balance things out, wouldn't creating a one-size-fits-all outfield depth do the same? And rant. Adams are the worst. I think it's just part of what makes baseball fun.

I mean, there were some pretty wacky stadium dimensions. You go back to like the polo grounds and whatnot. The Fenway's designed the way it is because they literally couldn't have it take up that much more space going from home plate to left field than it does. And I think if you want a more scientific reason than that, those other sports are affected by climate as much as baseball is. If you try to make coarse fields outfield dimension standard with everybody else, it would be. ridiculous how much how many home runs are hit there but also it would be much more fun if the other sports followed in all b's lead and not MLB following everybody else's lead i want a team that builds a great defense and then makes the field like 40 yards wide 20 yards wide you're going nowhere against

us uh yeah you know i i wish there were like maybe some regulation because like yankee stadium right field is the dumbest thing in baseball. It's the second dumbest thing in baseball behind pitchers hitting in the National League. But soon it will be the dumbest thing in baseball. Yankee Stadium right field is a joke. It's embarrassing. So I wish that didn't exist. I wish the Marlins would short.

I wish Major League Baseball be like, listen, Marlins, bring it in. Bring those walls in. Your hitters cannot reach those walls. But I still like the... I suspect the Marlins will eventually. come to decide. When are they going to do that? Maybe they could just open the roof first.

It's too hot, Heath. Too hot. Too hot. All right, I was going to do last year's busts, but let's instead do a segment of pickup from where we left off last week. We did the top 10 players, you know, as far as our rankings go. And a pro and a con for each, let's do 11 through 20 now. and again, Chris wrote these on the website,

so I encourage you to check them out. Who wants to be pro? Scott, what were you last time? You were pro, right? Yeah, I was making the argument for all the first rounders, which is pretty easy to do. I would definitely like to be con. It fits my personality much.

All right, all right, then. Scott, you can do 11 through 20. I get to continue being sincere. You give the case four, and Heath gives the case against. Let's go to Alex Breggman, third base, and shortstop eligible. So, Scott, why am I taking Alex Breggman 11th overall?

He's been one of the best bat control hitters in the made since reaching the majors. And last year he took the big step forward power-wise that we were hopeful would happen. And it did happen. So now he's not really being upstaged by like a mani Ramirez in terms of power. He's delivering comparable power while walking more than he strikes out. Very safe source of batting average. ton of runs you're batting first or second in the Astros lineup. And yeah, I think he's going to be an MVP caliber player for years to come.

Oh, yeah, Heath. Oh, yeah, and it's even better. He just started hitting again, so he should be fine. He's got an elbow injury. He had to have surgery on his elbow. There's no reason to use a first-round pick on somebody that we're not sure is going to be 100% in spring training. So give me a player or two you take ahead.

talking to sincere Heath or are you talking to Sincere Heath Mani Machado, Chris Sale Christian Yellich I'll take Machado over him I'll take sale over him I'll take Freddie Freeman over him Honestly I'm really not that worried about the elbow

Because it's bone spurs And that's just Usually such a minor thing I feel like the only time it becomes worse Is if there's ligament damage in there But there wasn't So I think it should be a really straightforward recovery.

Next up, number 12, Manny Machado. Scott, get me excited about Manny Machado. I mean, Manny Machado has been one of the steadiest elite hitters going back five years now, right? Five or six years? Pretty much always 30-plus homers, batting average, 280 and up. And now he's shortstop, which is nice.

there's a good chance he'll pick up third base again wherever he signs. He's just, he's just really safe, still in the prime of his career, not much to worry about there. He wouldn't even run hard in the World Series. He didn't he's going to try hard after they give him $200 million? Randy Machado is going to sign the big contract and then bust. Are you honestly worried about that, Heath? I'm just trying to do my job out.

I know, I know, but then I asked serious follow-up questions so people can realize. I'm not really concerned about him busting. I'm concerned that he's not quite worth a first-round pick. What about the ballpark? There's still a chance that he lands in a place that's not a great-hating environment. Right. Because he's 887 OPS at home, 761 OPS on the road. So we can revisit that.

I think that's a fair concern given those splits. It's four years in a row, by the way, not five or six. Scott, Chris Sayall, 13th. Sayle make the case so if you're looking for pitchers who deliver big time innings and big time production pretty much Scherzer's the stand out there but the only pitcher who could really hang with them in terms of innings and dominance is Chris Sale it's always been a little behind Scherzer but he's been more or less there and I can't imagine who else you'd want to take is the second pitcher off the board he he has he

has been great at delivering innings until last year. I mean, he only threw 158 and missed some time, made 27 starts, and he did see his velocity dip just a little bit. So we have a little bit of reason for concern at 1482 innings over his career. He may be losing a little bit of zip. Okay, yeah. The end of the season wasn't pretty for Chris Sale. The playoffs were not pretty for Chris Sale.

Do you guys think serious, Heath and Scott, that 13th for Chris Sale is good? Yeah. In Points League, I think it's good. I don't really want to take him there in Roto. Let's go to 14 and Christian Yelich, Scott. Remember, I took him like 9th or something in a previous Roto draft. Didn't feel very good about it. 14th for Christian Yelich. So Christian Yelich has the kind of skill set where he's good at so many different things that he doesn't have to be as good as he was at everything last year to still measure up with. borderline first round numbers, I think. And the one where he's going to fall short, his home runs, fine. He's not going to hit 37 again.

If he hits 30, 31, and he's stealing 20 bags, and he's heading 300, hard to say that's not a first round pick still. Yeah, he's definitely not going to hit 37 home runs. He had a 35% home run to fly ball rate last year. His career is 20%. And it should go up from what his career was because he's playing at Miller Park and not in Florida. I think you probably see a bigger drop in his home runs than that. I think he's probably closer to the mid-20s, 26, 27, something like that.

And the batting average, 326, was partially helped by those home runs, being home runs and not long fly ball outs. It was also helped by a 373 babbip, and he is a high babbip guy. But his career is still 14 points below that, and he's had just in 2017, he had 336 so there's a chance you're getting a 280 hitter with 27 home runs, and that's not a second round bit. 280 though, doesn't that seem little though? I don't mean to nitpick

but just because he's been so much better Look, you were talking to Heath's evil twin. Yeah, but that sounded a lot like normal Heath there. I'll say 285, but if you look at his last five years, 284, 300, 298, 282, 326. Yeah. So he's probably going to be a little better than

280, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility. Yeah, I would call it, consider it the downside. but is possible. So, okay, he's so interesting, so I'll just, I'm trying to go fast, but whatever. Christian Yewitch has road OPS, his last three seasons with Miami. 8.03, 934, 8.52. Let's just take 8.52. It's not exactly in the middle.

It's a little lower than the middle of those three. But let's take 8.52. If Christian Yewitch is an 852 OPS guy, is he worthy of the 14th pick in the draft? No. I would say probably. Yeah, close, I'd say. Right? I mean, it's not a huge bust.

I mean, it depends how much he runs, but he ran a lot last year. It's the most he's, well, it was the most bases he's stolen, but very high success rate. And he's probably going to walk a lot. So I think whether you're looking at Roto with the steals, head-to-head-to-head with the walks, I think he'd probably be worth it. All right, let's go to 15. Paul Goldschmidt. Scott, Paul Goldschmidt. So Paul Goldschmidt is still the best player at first base,

and first base is probably the second weakest position in fantasy third, if you want to count catcher. He's going to give you a near 300 batting average. He's going to get you 30 home runs. And I think it's – I love taking him early in the second round because it's – It's a position scarcity looks like it's going to be a thing this year, and that's a way to ensure you have a stud at one of the weakest positions. He did stop running last year, for the most part, only seven stolen bases,

and he is not going to a great hitters park in St. Louis. I'm not sure. I haven't seen enough data yet to say if St. Louis is better or worse than Chase was last year. But I think there's a reasonable outcome where he hits 28 home runs and steals five bases, and you're not thrilled with this in the early second round. Would you guys rather have yell at your gold, Schmidt. I'd rather have Yelich. I'd rather have Yelich.

All right, let's go to 16 after Paul Goldschmidt. Jacob de Grom. Scott DeGromm, best pitcher in baseball last year. He wasn't the number one in fantasy because the win-loss record was ridiculous. But make the case for DeGrom at 16. Yeah, so I think he joined that Scherzer sale tier pretty definitively last year. If you make the case, he was the best pitcher in baseball, obviously. And the thing is, 170 ERA, okay, that's too good to be true.

He's such a good ground ball pitcher. He had a 199 fifth. Gave up so few home runs. Control was great. Strikeouts were great. You know, even if you give him a full extra run, 270. If he's given you the innings he did a year ago, I don't think this pick is going to be a disappointment for you.

He plays for the Mets. They're going to be all right, no? They're the Mets. Yeah. Do you want to give a different answer, Heath? I have no qualms with Jacob de Grom. Seriously, the win-loss record might not be great, and there may be a little bit of injury concern, but he was so awesome last year.

I don't remember the specific numbers, but if you look at Cory Klooper 2017, he had a swinging strike rate and a strikeout rate that was way higher than we'd ever seen. And then he came back down to Earth and was still great, but not amazing. Well, you know what happened to Cory Kluber's pitching coach from 2017, right? He went and became Jacob de Grom's manager. Yeah, I like that.

All right. I was just saying, you know, a guy has a career season. He could regress, but still be great. That could happen to the Grom. Which would still make him probably worth the 16th pick. 17 is Freddie Freeman. Scott, Case 4, Freddie Freeman. So, Freddie Freeman, again, he has the position, scarcity thing.

going for him like Goldschmidt. He is one of the safest sources of batting average and all of baseball, consistently among the highest in line drive rate, and that allows him to hit 300 year after year after year. He's over the last three years, the power has picked up. It was down a little last year, but I still think he's a reasonable bet for 25 to 30 homers, gets on base a lot. So he, you know, I'll give him like a like a 310, 25, 95, 95 line.

And when he factor in the position scarcity, that's pretty easy call in the middle of the first round, second round. Full disclosure, this is really difficult for me because I actually have Freddie Freeman ranked higher than Scott and in the first round. So, yeah, that's tough. But, you know, two of the last three years, or two of the last four years, or two of the last four, years. He's played 118 games or fewer. He's only top 28 home runs once in his entire career.

He doesn't, he hasn't got 100 RBI since 2013. Only 100 runs once in his career. He's going to give you a 300 average and be fine everywhere else. Home runs were so down last year, 23 homers, but his last three years, he had 34

home runs, then 28, but he was on pace for 37 if you do 155 games and then 23. Just give me a yesterday Do you think Freddie Freeman could be the number one hitter in fantasy? Yes. No. Justin Verlander is 18.

Case 4 Verlander, Scott. He is a stud. I mean, he's been a Cy Young finalist now, I think, three consecutive seasons. And, you know, in some years would have won it. He's right up there in terms of that missing ability. pitching a ton of innings. He's right up there with Scherzer and Sale. The only reason we rank him a few spots behind

is because he's 30, it's going to turn 36 in a few days, actually. Hey. So, yeah. But, I mean, no signs of him letting up in terms of stuff for durability. So I'm not that concerned about it. Father time is undefeated.

Yeah. He's 36 years old. He's got, 2,700 innings in the major leagues on that arm. There's plenty of other starting pitchers in this range that are in the prime of their career. Don't take the old guy. Do you believe that? He would not be my next starting pitcher here, so I suppose I do.

Have we done Glover yet? Is he ahead of Clover? He is ahead of Clover. That's interesting. I wouldn't be mine either. So who are you guys taking after? Scherzer sale de Grom. Well, Klober. And then for Lander.

That's me. Heath? I'll take Snell ahead of him as well. Okay, 19 and 19, is Ronald Acuna. So we don't like him going with like a top five pick, but Scott, 19th overall. Okay, so the argument for Acunia is, did you see what he did the last two months of last season? If you project that out over a full season, he's basically putting up a Michael Trout Mookie Betz type line. We'll give you some power.

We'll give you some speed. If he hits the ball, as hard as he was hitting it, probably give you some batting average too. This is your chance to get an early first round type bet late in the second round. Yes, his second half numbers reading it here in the article from Chris, 301, if you translate his second half numbers out, 301 batting average, 46 homers, 109 RBIs, 1009 RBIs, 131 runs and 34 steals. Heath, crap on that.

Full season statistics are generally more predictive than partial season statistics. It's really difficult to believe that he's going to have a 350 BABIP with an 18% line drive rate. He did strike out in a quarter of his plate appearances, and he's probably not going to be in a position where he's going to run quite as much as he did last year. Yeah, I think we all kind of agree with that. What do you think, though, guys, real talk about Acuna at 19 overall? I think it's probably worth the risk at that point. The downside isn't low enough. I mean, I think the downside is something like Justin Upton.

So late in the second round when you're factoring in the upside, that seems worth it to me, particularly in a roto league. It's a couple spots higher than I would like to go, but I'm fine with them at the end of the second. All right, and number 20 is Aaron Judge. Scott, Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge is probably the best pure power hitter in baseball at this point. And there were a lot of doubts about him going into last season. Oh, it was such an outlier, the hard contact rate, all those flyballs he hit, the fact that he hit for such a high average, despite the crazy strikeout rate.

And then he was doing it again last year before suffering the injury. Was it a fractured elbow? Wrist, I think. Fractured wrist. I'm sorry, it might have been an elbow. I'll look at it up for you. He was doing it. He was doing it.

All those concerns, I think, are off the table now. He is the safest bet for 40 home runs if he's on the field. Wrist injury. 294 games isn't quite enough for me to believe that he is going to be a 356 BABIP guy, and he is striking out more than 30% of his plate appearances, even last year. And I also have a hard time believing he's going to be a 31% home run to fly ball rate forever. So I think there's still a little bit of downside of this big.

That sounded legit, sincere. It was a little bit legit. Okay. Yeah, this is a good spot. I don't even know anymore. It's a good spot for, I've been living alive for so long. I've got him at 25 overall, so 20's fine. He hits the all fields, 28.6% opo last year.

takes advantage of that stupid park. And before he hurt his wrist, Judge had a 947 OPS. And he'll steal like 10 bases. So he's 20 on this list. All right, let's read some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I believe it's mostly keeper questions that we did not get to in our last show. Matt from Milwaukee.

Hey, Donkey Doug, Pillboy, Blake Bortles, and the Soul Squad. What? I don't know. Okay. So the question, 12 team head-to-head categories league. You can keep four players for free for one year. Sort through the pile. Who do you want? Pick four. Okay. Blake's now. We're going to keep Blake's now. So now pick three. A. E. E. E. Haneo Suarez, Armand Marquez, Zatch Wheeler.

Zach Wheeler. I don't know why I said that. He should change his name like Zach Britton did. David. It actually is C.K for him. So he just... Oh, it is. Typeo from Matt in Milwaukee. David Dahl, Jose LeClerc, Adelberto Mondecy, Michael Brantley, Mitch Hanigur, and Wilson Ramos, pick three. Okay, so Mondesi in this format's a must, right? I'd go Suarez and I think Marquez for the next two.

It would be between Marquez and Dahl, but I think Dahl's just too uncertain. You've got to go with Marquez, what he showed in the second half last year. Yeah, I would go with Dahl and I think I'd go Marquez over Swarres. Really? Okay. So you're drafting Dahl ahead of Suarez? Well, the Keeper League, right? But just one year.

It's how I understood it, right? Okay, it does look like for one year. Yeah, I think I've got Squares higher. I might I should probably check that. All right, but, I mean, let's say you can't keep them forever. I don't know. It does say, okay, for one year, for one year, yeah. Forever it would be dull

For one year it's worse Paul in Phoenix Formerly Carl's Bad All right Paul Congrats on the move Hey Bobby Bump Red and Pops What the hell is happening today

I don't know These people are nuts I'm fortunate to have a great head start In my Roto League I have Hoskins in the 11th Soto in the 12th Bregman in the 13th And Reaamuto in the 17th

Nice And Torres in the 21st. But they're all hitters, and I'm thinking of trading Torres for Blake Snell, who can be kept in the 14th. Do it. Now, so you're giving up a 21st round, Torres for a 14th round, Snell. Easy. I mean, Snell's already stuck. I mean, won a Cy Young last year.

Torres, I like the upside. Okay, but you take what he actually did last year. It was pretty middling performance. You're still banking on a lot of upside there, and there's just no need. Fourteenth is a huge. I'd rather take a smaller discount for the better player. Honestly, I think if it was Snell in round four, I'd still make this trade. Forget round 14.

I don't know if I'd go that far, but your choices are a Cy Young winner or a guy who wasn't even as good of prospect as Greg Byrd, so I think you have to go. All right. From Jeff. According to Cashman, I guess. You loser. What is the likelihood Matt Carpenter or Anthony Rizzo could once again gain second base eligibility? I think pretty good. I think for Carpenter, yeah.

He made 11 appearances last year. So CBS rules, five in-season appearances, and not even like starts or anything, just like one second at a position, and you've got an appearance, whatever the official score says. Five gets your eligibility in season, 20 to carry it over to next season.

That's why Carpenter doesn't start with second base eligibility, but he made 11 appearances last year. So I don't know, I got to think that's good. He's not going to play first base anymore, unless Goldschmidt gets hurt. Right. So that's not even an option for him. And Rizzo only made one appearance last year.

He made 10 in 2017. Seems like that depends more on umpiring crews than anything else. Is it umpiring cruise or is it like the official score? It's one of those things. Yeah. Whatever it is. Okay. So J.J. Cabrera emails us.

Dear Tommy, Arthur, John, and Finn. Yeah, this one I feel like we should be able to figure out. Finn Who's a Finn? Finn was from Oh This I actually think he tells us

Yeah Pecky Blinders Um Peaky Blinders is I only watch one episode And I loved it I need to get back into that show I think it's awesome

I need some help with keepers 14 team league Pick 3 James and Tyone Oh it's Points League By the way Round 8 Tyone

Jeanette round 14 Hes Aguilar round 15 Tommy Fam round 10 Nativaldi round 17 Oh this is easy I think I go with the first three Tyone Jeanette No you liar

Aguilar Really? Maybe fan Over Fam I thought you were going to say fam It's a close call I mean fam's not young Aguilar's younger

And obviously Aguilar has the position scarcity thing going for him At first base of all positions. Yeah. Yeah, I think I'd go fam, Tyone, and Scooter. This is from Matt. Hey, George, John, and Thomas.

Those are presidents. I thought they were Hansen. 12 team, I'm just kidding. 12 team roto league. Four guys, I keep become my first four picks. So he's got six, and he needs to keep four. Goldschmidt, Bellinger. Hoskins, Sanchez,

Rayamuto, Gallo, Osuna. You are keeping. Well, you're definitely not keeping Joey Gallo. Right. And you're not keeping two-catchers. Well, it comes down to whether it's a two-catcher league. It's a 12-team Roto League. Only we play in two-catcher leagues.

You realize that? I understand, but I assume he's listening to our podcasts, and our standard Roto League is a two-catcher league. Nobody plays in that. Nobody plays in our standard Rotter League. I think that's... I think that would be proven fault. They do, but they change the settings.

Goldschmidt, if it's two catchers, I'm probably keeping Goldschmidt, Hoskins, Riemmuthu. You have to keep any of them. What? Well, are you saying the four guys he keep become his first four picks, does that mean you get picks if you don't keep? You get picks earlier if you don't keep four? Well, if everybody else is keeping... four players. I don't think that first-round pick is going to be worth more than one of these guys.

It's a big if. Who's worth a top four pick? For, you know, first four round? Goldsmith, for sure. So who are the best four players? We're saying Goldschmidt, Hoskin, Sanchez, and Rio Muto? Not in that order, but those are the best four? I think so. If you have to throw back Sanchez because there's no reason to teach...

Well, why would he have them both on his roster if it's not a two-catchel league? It's obviously a two-catchel. Obviously, yeah. It's not, I'm telling you. He hates it like me. All right, fine. Keep them both. I don't care.

Or if you don't want to keep them both, then keep Bellinger and throw back Sanchez. Or keep nobody. Or keep nobody. Don't do that. That's a really bad plan. Okay. Thanks for listening, everybody. We'll come back tomorrow with another episode.

We'll talk about how to measure picture stuff. It should be very fascinating stuff. For Heath and Scott, I'm Adam. See you Tuesday.