Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Darvish, Rankings, Forgotten Players

Episode Date: February 12, 2018

Does Yu Darvish's value change after signing with CHC (2:24)? And is he a true Fantasy ace? We dish on Darvish, RP strategies (8:33) and much more on today's show ... Rankings disputes! Scott and Heath debate Jonathan Schoop (17:44), Yoan Moncada (21:50), Brad Hand (27:41) and Sonny Gray (34:00) ... Discussing some players who are drafted late or not drafted at all (42:42). Are people forgetting about Jose Peraza, Patrick Corbin, Mark Trumbo, Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Belt, Steven Matz, Lonnie Chisenhall and Zack Wheeler? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

And welcome to the show, everybody. On Monday, February 12th, this is fantasy baseball today. Adam, Heath, Scott, Chris. I am feeling a big week. You Darvish is just the beginning. I think we're going to get J.D. Martinez this week. I think we're going to get Jake Arieta this week. Expect a newsy week, fellas, okay?

I think we're going to have a newsy week. Adam, right. You're so innocent. Wrong players. Why? Come on. I'm old enough to remember when all that needed to have. happened with Shohei Otani and Giancarlo Stanton needed to get moved.

And finally everyone would start signing. Have faith. I would expect Lance Lynn will sign and Alex Cobb will sign. I mean, it is almost Valentine's Day, right? Yeah, it is. It's what we're two weeks away from spring training games starting to be played a little more than two weeks away. So maybe you're right. I am right.

I would love it if you guys were right. Yeah. I think it's very possible. J.D. Martinez, Eric Cosmer, Mike Mastakis. it's going to be a little while. The Boris thing? I don't think it's his fault necessarily, but I don't think you can look at this winter without including looking at it through that lens.

Yeah, well, it's time. It is time. And you, Darvish, six years, $126 million to the Cubs, could be worth up to $150 million. He can also opt out after two seasons. We will talk about that. We don't have a lot of news to get to today, but we do have some rankings disputes.

And what about these guys? Every day this week, I think we're going to do four shows this week, so each of the four episodes, I will pick eight players that are going pretty late in drafts that I don't feel like we've talked too much about. And I will ask, hey, what about these guys? And then you tell me, hey, what about them, you know? Should we care? Do we care?

Are they bargains or are they worthless? Let's start with you, Darvish. And by the way, your e-mails at Fantasybaseball at cbsi.com. Fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. That's eye as in interactive. Everybody have a good weekend? Outstanding. Yes.

Sure. Everybody's good as Heath's? What? As good as Heath's weekend? No, nobody's weekend was as good as Heath's weekend. It sounds like. Heath always has a good time at home, though, you know? Yeah, he does.

Why was Heath's week? Hours. I don't know. I went to the pool yesterday. Oh, the pool. Yeah. Heath's living the high life. All right, well, U.Darvish is now living the high life.

Value up, down, or the same. U. Darvish to the Cubs. Value is the same. Neutral environment. Great lineup backing. can't really seem much reason to say it's better or worse. I think the most fascinating part of this deal is that the Cubs decided they needed to sign the most attractive free agent pitcher, even though probably the second most attractive was one they just had

for a long time, one who just won a Cy Young Award for them in 2015. And even though they just gave up their top prospect for Jose Cantana in the middle of last season, and even though they still have John Lester signed to a big long-term contract, they felt like they didn't have enough pitching and had to spend a ton of money on it. So that says a lot because both Lester and Areietta were pretty disappointing last year and in ways that underlie the stats even. Both their velocities were down, both of their – well, Auretta swinging strike rate was down, but both their strikeout rates were down.

And I'm not sure the Cubs are super confident they're going to bounce back, which I was. I thought the really interesting thing was that, like, according to Leaks, the Cubs tried to give a bunch of money to Jake Irita. Only after they were down the road with you, Darvish, though. It would, it was their second choice. It would be like, oh, no, you're talking to someone else. I'm not going to take your money. Well.

Maybe he is. Well, I mean, yeah, I mean, the fact that it seemed like the way it was described, and this was in a John Heyman story, John Hayman of Fanrag Sports, the way it was described was that they're, After they were already down the road with you, Darvish, they talked to Arieta, giving them one last chance just to see if things didn't work out with Darvish, if Areietta could be their option instead. Yeah, that was, the report is that it was like, well, if Darvish doesn't accept our offer, will you? Right. Yeah, I mean, I don't know. That doesn't really sound like Jake Arenda turned down the deal then. Well, it said he said no in the piece. Right, but that's, that makes sense.

Would you have said no if you were in his position? Maybe. Yeah, I know. That's what I'm saying. That's kind of a, like, beyond just like the numbers and whether Jake Garrett is worth that, it's also like, that's insulting. Yeah. And these are prideful people and that matters. Like, to some players it doesn't.

But it's not surprising that a player would be like, no, I don't want to be your plan B. Well, okay, let's talk about you, Darvish, because before Tommy John's surgery, he had a 283 and a 306 ERA in his first two seasons. and then after Tommy John surgery, he had a 341 ERA and a 386 ERA. He was terrible in the World Series. We know that. It may have been because he was tipping pitches. He's been a lot better on the road than at home his last two seasons with Texas and with the Dodgers. Had an ERA under 250 on the road each of those two seasons, ERA over four at home.

So I don't know. I mean, look, we know he strikes out a ton of batters. We know he's not going to be a great whip pitcher, not that he'll be a liability. So I think it comes down to ERA, really. Is he a 3, probably not a 386 guy, but is he a 340 guy? Or is he a low 3s guy? That's probably the difference between Darbish being a true ace and being just like really, really good. That's my take on it.

Last year's really the outlier when it comes to his league adjusted ERA. In 2017, he had a 118 ERA plus. Previous three seasons were 134, 130, 145. So I think given the league context and where he pitched, he's probably a better pitcher than his raw ERAs suggest. From last year, definitely. Yeah. Well, just overall. I think the 341, we look at a 341 ERA, but in Texas, in the American League, in this new context, he wasn't any worse in 2016 than he was in 2014 as one of the dress.

Well, 341. Sorry, 341 ERA is a little. limited in terms of like, okay, what was DeGrom last year? I think he was the number 12 starting pitcher. He had a 353 ERA. That was the highest of any of the top like 15 pitchers. He's getting out of that ballpark. And I mean, Chris Archer keeps sorting with a four ERA, but the strikeouts are so high he pitches so deep into games that we still consider him a borderline ace. But he's not. Darvish, I feel like, is a better version of that. But he, but Archer wasn't a borderline ace last year. Also, not with a four yards. We, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we, we view him as that.

Because we think that he will have a better ERA. But, you know, okay, look, four is high. He's had some win-loss issues, too. Look, I would be happy to draft Udarvish in the 12 range at starting pitcher. Yeah. I'm a little lower than that, but I don't think that's, like, that's just personal preference at that point. He is a borderline ace. I don't expect him to necessarily be a top 10 fantasy pitcher.

I do think there's slightly more injury risk for him than there is for a lot of other pitchers in that 10 to 15 range. It's easy to forget. He's got well over 2,000 innings on his arm because of how much he threw in Japan. And he's already had it once. Okay. All right, so not much change there for...

Not much at all, really, for you Darvish. Good stuff. So you're going to be setting up your new league soon. You better be doing that on CBSSports.com and go to CBSports.com slash FBT, as in fantasy baseball today. CBSports.com slash FBT when you sign up. Our commissioner product has launched. It is the best place to play.

We love it. You can customize your own stat categories. You can adjust scoring by position. There's a very deep player pool. So if you like Dynasty Leagues, this is the place to play. CBSports.com slash FBT. And you can trade picks up to three years in advance. So if you're playing for now, you're playing for the future, whatever it is.

We have advanced stats for those of you who love the analytics. We have this awesome podcast to help you out as well. And if you do listen to the podcast and you want to sign up for one of our commissioner leagues, please do it at CBSports.com slash FBT. CBSports.com slash FBT. Get your league started today. All right, here's our email of the day. It is from Brian, from Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

Brian says, dear non-zero chance. With you guys talking about reliever strategies and how it's harder to find quality starting pitching, wouldn't the lack of quality at starting pitcher make getting a top reliever even more important? I love the idea of drafting Jansen or Kimbril early in a draft, maybe fourth or fifth round, I think it makes a lot of sense getting a high strike rate, low whip, ERA, saves, not to mention just a quality pitcher.

I would want to get a starting pitcher in this range to complement a reliever. What do you guys think of taking Kimbril or Jansen in the fourth or fifth round, P.S. Bring back Kokomo Fridays. Here's the problem with that. Kokomo Friday? No. The fourth or fifth round is where you are still drafting. There are still quality starting pitchers available. And if you're worried about not getting enough quality starting pitchers and having to fill in with relievers,

why are you going to pass up a quality starting pitcher for a reliever? Okay. I mean, I think what it comes down to is like Archer, Darvish, and Kinlay-Lay Jansen. Those are the guys you can get in the fifth route. How are you leaning in that conundrum? I feel far more confident. And this is, Jansen's one of the few relievers that I would say this about. I feel more confident in getting an elite performance out of Jansen than I do Archer or Darvish.

Most relievers, the problem I have, especially once you get out of the top three or four this year, is it feels like, man, these guys could give us a sub three ERA and 40 saves, or they might lose the job in May. Well, here's the other thing to remember about relief pitchers is the ace relievers who aren't getting saves. A lot of them aren't even going to be drafted. So if you really need ERA and whip help, you know, a lot of them are not. even discovered yet. I mean, we didn't know Tommy Kainley was going to be who he was last year. We didn't

know Anthony Swarzak. There's going to be guys like that emerging off the waiver wire all the time. It's worth noting a 3ERA from a relief pitcher is not very bad. Even like a 2-8, which we think of as pretty good, you're mostly just treading water there. Just because they're not pitching

enough innings to make a difference. Like a 2-8 from a reliever is better than a 4 from a starter, right? Like if you have a roster full of 4 starters. I could run the numbers. I could run the numbers on that, I don't think that's necessarily. It's probably pretty close to a push. So what, and maybe I just missed this, what was the average ERA last year? It was, so to finish, the median, to finish sixth was 4.04 last year. Which is no good. To win was 351. To win what, what does that mean?

I would be to win the category, but I would, if four, you could be top five with a 390 ERA. A starter with a 4 is... But you can't just take into account of ERA. You also have to take into account the fact that the guy with the 4 ERA at starting pitcher, let's say Jeff Samarge. You're going to get 170 strikeouts or more. Yeah, I mean, you're going to get... Jeff Samarge is much later in the draft, too, if we're talking about a four-de-fitt-rower. You're going to get more help and strikeouts and wins.

You're going to get less help and whip and saves. I think it's pretty close to a push. Right. The innings aren't enough to... Because, yeah, because your elite relievers, Kenley Janssen, 132 ERA in 68 innings last year, was only slightly more helpful than Drew Pomerant. Drew Pomerant's with a 332 ERA and a hundred. That's a big difference in a four. Sure, but these are the examples that I have in front of me.

I understand. What I'm saying is a four is not helping you an ERA. If your believer is helping you. Right. If you're an elite reliever, once you start getting into the 283, 3. ERA range, it's just like maybe a half of a standing point. Right. That's why we're talking about making an attempt to get an elite reliever.

Right. But there's two. Well, two that get saved. There are going to be a lot who don't get saves. But yeah, that's the question is how valuable are the guys that don't get saves because they're going to help you in ERA and WIP, but it's nice to have the guys that help you in three categories. And like I said on a show last week, Heath and Scott in the Roto League in one of our Roto

leagues last year took completely different approaches to relief pitcher and their pitching staffs in general, they both did very, very well. They finished very close in the standings. So there may not be a right answer here. But even in the points leagues where you only start two relievers and some of them can be starting pitchers who just have RP eligibility, I've been kind of frustrated not getting consistent production for my relievers. And I feel like sometimes my team's ebb and flow based on how many saves I'm getting

that week. So it is sort of appealing to maybe reach a little bit and get Kimball or Jans. and maybe Chapman and try to get a guy who's going to get over 40 saves and be really good. I don't know. I've really evolved on relief pitcher. It used to be kind of a throwaway position for me.

It absolutely is not anymore. I don't want to go through the same argument we had last week, but yeah, go ahead and finish up, guys. Part of what's changed it is that Kimbril and Jansen have so consistently been at the top for how many years. I mean, Kimbril had that one-off year two years ago, but otherwise it's been those top two of the rankings for like five or around five years, right?

And that... Kimberl's basically been a top two or three reliever for seven years now. Yeah. So that's, I mean, that's... You used to not see that. First of all, I mean, obviously Rivera was a good closer for a long time, but he didn't stand out by so much in the non-save categories to consistently finish that high among relievers.

So that, like, these two have been standouts at a position where you're, reliable stand-outes in a position where reliability is usually not something you're counting on. And it does make a – like, I would at least consider drafting them early when I used to never consider drafting relief early. And they were the only two relief pitchers who were top ten pitchers last season in Road. You know what I think is going to lose his job? Ken Giles. Yeah, maybe. Do I really believe that?

I'm not sure, but it's got to be in the back of the mind because he lost it in the World Series. So it's got to be in the back of your mind when you draft Ken. Yeah, but he could have a one ERA next year, too. What makes that funny is, yeah, he did lose it in the World Series. He's lost it in the past. I think the chances of him losing it again are pretty high. He's my fourth closer. Well, yeah, he's got such a great opportunity.

That's both why you might want to reach for one of the top two guys and why you might not want to reach at all otherwise. Right. Well, why do we not? Oh, God, we're going to do RP preview next week. So next week, I will ask you, why do we not put a roll of this Chapman in this discussion? And we'll find out.

I forgot about it. Giles is my fifth closer. Oh, okay, okay. One other news item, Dustin Fowler is apparently the favorite to be Oakland's starting center fielder, according to MLB.com's Jane Lee. Fowler came over from the Yankees in the sunny gray deal. And he's got speed. He's coming off a really horrific injury, though.

But if Dustin Fowler is the starting center fielder for the A's, Is he a mixed league viable outfielder for you? Yeah, he is somebody, and I had him rate quite a bit higher in my first run, and then I was looking at it, and I didn't think he was the favorite to be the starting center fielder in Oakland, so I kind of dropped him a little bit. But if he's going to be ready for spring training and he's going to be their starting center fielder, especially in Roto he's mixed league, because he could be a 30-steel guy. Oakland is so interesting, just hopping down the lineup.

They've got so many interesting guys. I could see drafting him as like a bench option in a five outfielder league, Dustin Fowler. But it's not, you know, he's not like a can't miss prospect. I think the upside for him is Brett Gardner, who you're probably drafting as a fourth outfielder as it is. All right, guys. We got rankings disputes. What about these guys? And I forgot to mention, I wanted to get to our NL-only draft.

If we don't do that today, we'll definitely carve out time tomorrow for the NL-only draft, which we did on Friday. And I would just say that hitters in NL-only, they suck. It was not as deep at hitter as the American League, that's for sure. But I was talking to a buddy yesterday who's considering doing something that I think some people in your office in Fort Lauderdale do, set up two separate eight-team leagues, one AL only, one N-L-only, and have the winner of each meet in the World Series to decide the Fantasy Champion. That used to be something that was done here, yes. Yeah, it's kind of a cool idea. I think the gimmick wore off pretty quick. Why?

It was kind of a pain to manage. Because you have to, like, you have to figure out how trades are going to be handled across leagues. Oh, you don't do trades across leagues? Well, what if a guy's traded in real life across leagues? Oh, those trade. Oh, I thought you meant like, yeah, I mean, how could it trade across the league work, right? Yeah. And it was just, I don't know.

It didn't catch on. Okay. Well, it's a interesting. I hope they enjoy it. I hope they have a great time. Well, let's fight. Ranking's disputes. Scott has Jonathan Scope 6th in Roto.

Heath has scope 14th. What? Wow. Chris, that is a big difference. Chris, why don't you weigh in here? Are you closer to 6th or 14th for Jonathan's scope? Probably a little closer to Scott on this one, but I'm interested in hearing Keith's reasoning. Me too.

Heath, go ahead. One, I like stolen bases. Jonathan Scope does not steal bases. Two, I kind of feel like Jonathan's scope is a borderline just compiler. He did have a great year last year. I don't want to sell him short. There's not anything that looks way out of line. I mean, I think the batting average probably falls back to this 270 range.

I don't expect him to hit 290 again. I think the home runs fall back below 30. I don't expect this Orioles lineup to be very good, especially in the second half of the season. I don't think he comes close to those 90 runs and 100 RBI numbers. And so I just expect something more like what we saw in 2016. Without any stolen bases, I'd rather have those in Roto. Okay, some of the guys that Heath has ranked ahead of Jonathan's scope, Ozzy Albies, Cano, O'Dore, Moncada, Nunez, DeYoung, and Hap.

Scott, you have... DeYoung is the one. That stands out to me. That's it? Aren't you hoping Paul DeYoung has a full season as good as Jonathan Scopes? And aren't his glaring weaknesses exactly the same as Jonathan Scopes except without the track record? In some ways, yes. I mean, his pace from last year is better than Jonathan Scopes.

Sure, but you don't expect him to keep that. I don't expect that, but I think we just saw Jonathan Scopes upside. Probably saw Paul de Young's upside. We may have, but we haven't even seen a full season out of him yet. Sure, but he had a 3.50 babbip and hit was on a, you know, was on a, what, 37 homer pace? That's probably his best season. And if he does that, he'd be better than Scope was last year. Well, Scope was number five second baseman in both points in Roto.

Scott, make your case for Jonathan Scope sixth ahead of Merrifield, Canoe, Nunez, LeMayhew, etc. Well, you just said it. He was number five in Roto last year. The main reason I have Scope ranked where I do is because I have to rank, some second basement in that spot. And I think there are probably a dozen deserving candidates, but scope is the most proven, has the fewest red flags,

and just did it last year. So I'm not going to have many shares of scope. I feel like he typically goes in the range I rank him in, but I would rather have Ozzy Albee's half the draft later. So, you know, Heath's is more of a statement ranking, and I respect that. I don't, do young and half, Ian Hap, the two he ranks ahead of him, are two that I would not even consider in the same range.

But guys like Ozzy Albies, yeah, I think he could be better than Scope. Okay, and that's kind of an interesting point. There's a clear top five at second base in some order of Altuve, Jose Ramirez, Dozier, D. Gordon, Daniel Murphy. And then after that, Scott says he's got to put someone sixth, but he's not going to certainly reach for Jonathan's scope. And Scope is 14th for Heath. So it's a good way to look at the position of second base. I'll just say this one last thing for scope. Let's take his last three years because it's easy to compare 2016 and 17.

2016 scope was like the number 12. No, he's number 14 second baseman in 162 games. So he was like whatever. But you look at 2015 and 2017. The batting, the home runs, at least the home run pace, because he only played, I think, 86 games. The BABIP, the hard contact rate, all very similar. 2015 and 2017. So it's possible that 2016 was just the outlier,

and he really does have that much power, and he really can be that good again. Just throwing that out there. Don't forget about what he did in 2015. All right. Next Roto ranking. Same position. Yohan Munkata.

Heath has Yohan Mankata 10th in Roto. Scott has him 16th. 10th for Heath, 16th for Scott. Scott, you get the first word on Yohan Mankata. Oh, boy. Well, we don't know yet that Yoan Munkata is going to be useful in any way. We'd hoped he'd be a big-time base dealer. He hasn't shown evidence of that at the major league level. He did start to hit a little on September finally, but still with the strikeout rate that is concerning. He's on my breakout list, so I could certainly see him living up to more production than I rank him as.

but second base there are so many options that I think are startable that to rank him among them I think is a bigger risk than I'm willing to take. I'd rather have him on the back end of that group and just, you know, get him at a point where if he doesn't break out, it doesn't hurt me. Heath, Moncott. This points probably to something I'm going to be writing in the next couple of weeks. and it is that I'm really tired of worrying about Floor and Roto. Like, in points leagues, you're playing to finish in the top six

so you can get in the playoffs and hopefully win three coin tosses in a row and be named a champion. In Roto, you must be the best team in the league for the entire season or your entire season was a waste. Finishing sixth in Roto means you quit playing in July. So I am going to rank guys that I think have huge up. upside, which I think Mancada does. I think he has Trey Turner upside.

He was a consensus top five prospect two years in a row coming into last year. He's had 251 plate appearances in the major leagues. In the minors, he was consistently a 280, 290 hitter with 40 to 50 steel potential. Okay. Higher than that. He had 40 to 50 steals in 80 and 106 games, respectively.

And you do have Moncada, 10th in Roto, 14th in points, so that's reflected, yeah, what you just said. I guess here's the question. Scott, are you concerned that, you know, if you rank Moncada 16th, that you're never going to get him? And, you know, do you have to reach for him, I guess, in your case, to make sure that you get the opportunity for the upside? You probably, I would probably have to rank him higher to have a realistic opportunity at him. But I guess what it ultimately boils down to is if I don't get him, I'm not going to be that upset because it's a major risk. What about this?

What if you do get him and he struggles, can you just get away from him and figure, as long as it's not a middle infield league, as long as you're just playing one second base? Because a lot of head-to-head categories leagues are like that, right? Okay, I draft Moncada. Maybe I take him a little earlier than I wanted to. He doesn't work out after a month or whatever. I bench him or I get rid of him. And there's plenty of second baseman on the waiver wire.

Do you think it's a deep enough position where you can go get Jason Kipness or maybe a D. Young or something like that and be okay failing with Moncada. it's just short term. Well, I guess the question to ask is where would you have to target Munkata to get him? And what would you be giving up in the process? Because there are other positions to consider. There are positions that aren't going to have as much depth on the waiver wire as second base hopefully will. Because it's a good point.

Like if you could get Monsata around 16 or later, yeah, I'll wait to get Munkata. And if it doesn't work out, I'll address it later. If you have to draft him in round 12 where Matt Olson is going, who Matt Olson's shown a lot more at the Major League level, I'll take Matt Olson. Okay. And I think Olson is currently below Moncada in ADP. I do want to point out.

Munkata has been exposed a little bit in the high miners. He's still hitting 280 between double A and AAA in 125 games. However, that comes with a 29.2% strikeout rate. He's been running a 377 Babbitt between Triple. A and AA. He's only stolen 26 bases in 125 games there. He's been caught 12 times, so he's gotten less efficient as a base stealer as well, which is a concern because this is a guy who, you know, all the projections where he's going to fill out

and still be a power speed combo, but maybe not a 50 steel guy. And maybe he doesn't have that upside anymore. Now, between 125 games and AA and AAA, you're talking about 23 homers, 26 steals, 280 batting average. If that's just the upside, you know, you're probably talking about a second round pick. And the thing that's been most discouraging for me about Moncada and the major so far, I like what he did last September.

I think he could still be a good hitter. It's the steals. Was he a high percentage stealer in the minors? Yes. Early on. Yeah. In his time in high A and regular Class A, he stole 49 bases and was caught stealing three times in 2015.

That's good. And then 36 and 8 at Salem, High A. So maybe there's a way to redeem that, but he just hasn't run much of the majors. And it's not at all uncommon to see players run like crazy in the minors, and then they get to the majors. And they're just not asked to do that anymore. Jock Peterson's voice. Jock Peterson.

All right, Chris, guess what? Since you don't have rankings, I'm going to give you an assignment. You are going to be the official. ADP boy of the show. You have to tell us. ADP boy. Either where are these guys? I've got it set up on.

Or you could look at a previous draft that we've done and say, well, in this draft, he went here. But I'll leave that up to you. You are ADP boy. We look forward to this new role for you. All right, new ranking dispute. Let's go to a relief pitcher. Heath has Brad Hand 8th in Roto. Scott has Brad Hand 15th.

And Hand last year had a 216 ERA, 20. 21 saves and 26 chances. He had 104Ks in 79 and a third at a 0.9.9th. He was awesome. All right. So Heath is the high guy. Hand is 8th. Scott has him 15th.

Heath, give me a hand. Can we just call him left-handed Wade Davis from now on? They tried to make him work as a starter, tried to make him work as a starter, shipped him out of Florida, put him in the bullpen, and he becomes a good reliever. And it's not just what he did last year. Over the last two years now, and that's what, 154 games. games. He has a 256 ERA, a 102 whip. And the fact that they just gave him this extension, I think both makes it less likely that he's traded away to become a middle reliever somewhere.

Because that was my real concern for him when I started ranking was, well, the Padres could be 20 games out of it in July and they could just ship him off. That's still a real nice contract for a middle reliever for some big market team. It could be. Like, you can't see the Cubs trading for his 18 million. over the next three years. The Cubs don't have a closer right now, so I'd be okay with that. Yankees, Red Sox. You can't see one of the Dodgers.

I think it makes it less likely that the Padres are going to trade him this year. I would say that if you look as a history of guys that signed extensions before the season, they are traded at a lower rate than other guys. Yeah, I would say I think it's just as likely with this specific guy just because

the Padres still aren't going to win and that contract is such a year. They might have Eric Cosmar. All right, well, back to, okay, So I'll say this, this is kind of interesting. Brad Hand in points leagues last year where saves matter, like saves matter a lot more than just your ratio stats. He was the number 16 closer. And how many saves did he had again?

He had 21 saves. So he wasn't the closure the whole year, right? No. No. No. No, he became the closer in like mayor June. Yeah, so I guess this exercise doesn't necessarily work. But he was number 16 in points at RP.

He was number seven in Roto, which is where Heath Hasimo. So Scott, 15th for hand. It's not like you are down on him or anything, but lower. No. No, he's not the last of the closers who I, you know, are like 100% to begin the year in that role. So, and you look at the percentages.

He was actually a reliever I was going to point out when we were talking about believers who can help in the rhodo categories who aren't going to get your saves. Well, hands you can get, you know, on the later side. and he will at least give you some saves. The reason I rank him low, well, relative to Heath, is because that while the percentages are good, like the main thing I want from a closer is saves. I want him to carry me in that category,

and I do think he's going to come up short there because I think the Padres are just horrendous. And I think they were last year, too. They somehow managed to win 71 games. Their Pythagorean win-loss record, which takes into account, runs scored, runs given up, had them winning 59 games. It's a 12-game difference that, like, it's the biggest I can remember seeing.

Andy Green probably should have won manager of the year, just based on that. And you just look at the Padres roster, it is so bad. Is that the word? Yes. Of talent? It's very bad. The pitching staff especially. I have four Padres in my top 300.

four. Like, it's, it's, it's, it's an awful team. They're going, they're going to struggle to win 60 games, I think. And, and while, you know, winning the 71 they did last year, um, gave Hand a decent save total for the time he was in the role. I just don't, I don't see that happening again. I think, I think third, you're drafting him expecting less than 30. Here's, here's the thing I would point out about Bradhand is he overperformed ZRA a little bit, but that's fine. His FIP was 303. He's, he's, he's, he's, a good reliever. The problem is you look at his stat line and you see two goddy strikeout numbers 111 and 104 over the last two seasons. He's probably not going to come close to that this year. Why? Because closers don't throw 80 or 80 or 90 innings. It just doesn't happen. Right, but he's probably going to be closer to 60 to 65

innings. Right. I would agree with that completely, but I'm just comparing him to other closers. No, I know. I'm just, I'm just, I'm just, yeah, I'm just pointing out that that number is going to go down. He'll probably be in the 85 to 90 range. Yeah, my bigger concern is just he's among the many closers who I look at and say he might have the job in July. Now, it's probably not because he's going to be bad. It's probably because I think he's very likely to get traded stuff.

All right, that's Brad Hand. We got one more rankings dispute to get to. But first, I got to tell you about Seat Geek. Hey, maybe you want to get somebody tickets for Valentine's Day? I don't know if that's the most romantic thing, but maybe get him for yourself. or tell your wife, hey, go on Seekek and buy me some tickets and use the promo code Fantasy, or tell your husband or your boy, whatever, it doesn't matter.

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Let's get our last guy here, Sunny Gray. Heath has him 38th. Scott has Sunny Gray 22nd. Adam is very confused on how good a pitcher Sunny Gray is. Just baffled by him. They lost confidence in him in the postseason for sure. And then he went out and had a great start against the Astros and the ALCS. So we know what he's capable of, but I don't know who Sunny Gray is anymore.

So you guys help me out, Sunny Gray. I'll let Scott go first. Oh, you'll let me go first. Thank you. Give yourself time to collect your thoughts. The swing and strike rate, Scott. That's where you start, right? It is with the swinging strike rate for Sunday.

Sunny Gray had, from the time he's been in the league, had been an elite ground ball pitcher. And that's what made him the runner up for the ALSye Young in 2015, I think. think it was. But there was always this underlying concern. Well, he doesn't strike out batters like pitchers on that level. And, you know, we all thought it caught up to him in 2016 when he had a terrible ERA. He apparently learned something from that season because last year, not only did he have

the elite ground ball rate, but he was also had one of the best swinging strike rates in all the majors. You know, normally his swinging strike rate would have been like, 60th among qualifiers and it was about 15th, 17th among qualifiers. With increased slider usage, she was able to miss more bats and so that takes him to, that takes him from a guy who does one thing

exceptionally well to doing two things exceptionally well, probably the best two things a pitcher can do exceptionally well, you know, as long as he's not walking to everybody in sight. And I think he actually could have been even better than he was last year because of it. I think he had, there's reason to suspect his ERA was higher than it should have been. There's certainly reason to suspect his win-loss record was worse than it should have been. It was actually sub-500, even with the Yankees, and he had a sub-4 ERA with them. So he had bad luck with the win-loss record for sure.

And I think is about to have his best season with a great offense, backing him a great bullpen, you know, maybe the Yankees might be as equipped as any team in history to preserve lead, to give their pitcher a lead and preserve it for him. So I think he's going to win a lot of games and be the best possible version of himself. All right. This is Sunny Gray we're talking about. Heath, what are your drawbacks with Sunny Gray 38th overall? I will concede that the win-loss record was unlucky and he should have been better. I will argue that the ERA, if anything, the evidence shows that his ERA should have been higher. His FIP was 3-9. His ex-FIPP was 3-7-6.

And he has been a pitcher in the past that has outperformed his FIP. He's also been a pitcher the year before last where his ERA was much worse than his FIP. What really was the difference maker in Oakland, in 2014, 2015, when he wasn't striking anyone out, he had a really low Babbitt pitched in front of a very good defense in a huge park. his defense was dreadful in 2016, and that was only part of the problem. He also gave up way too many dongs. He made 11 starts for the Yankees and gave up 11 home runs last year. I am worried about the home runs.

Yeah, he gave up 8 at Yankee Stadium in 28 and 2 thirds. That's not good, especially for a guy that's pitched his entire career in Oakland. But doesn't it seem fluky for a guy who gets as many ground balls as he does? to have home run issues. Like, his strength is putting the ball on the ground. I understand it. It does seem fluky. It's not going to seem as fluky when it happens at Yankee Stadium as it did in 2016 when he gave up almost 1.4 home runs per 9.

That seemed really fluky because he was pitching for the athletics. Yeah, but he had a 17% home run to fly ball rate. That's high. That's higher than you would expect, Yankees. So since people don't really know Sunny Gray's stats off the top of their head. He did go 10 and 12 with a 355 ERA. He's really interesting to me because they're just, they're encouraging signs,

like the K rate up in the swinging strike rate. And the discouraging signs, I think, you know, his numbers with the Yankees. His first eight stars with the Yankees were great. Two-66 ERA. His last three starts were terrible, 12 run runs and 14 and two-thirds. So maybe that's where I gave up basically all the home runs was in those last three starts. Was it? I didn't think so.

Well, he gave up, he had three. starts where he gave him multiple home runs. He gave up seven home runs and three September starts. And all his other starts with the Yankees, he gave up a combined four home runs. The other thing I will say is I do believe in the fact that Sunny Gray needs to have good infield defense behind him. I don't know half of the Yankees' infield defense is going to be.

If they were to sign a good defensive second baseman and third baseman, I would like him a little bit more. I think he's less dependent on that now. And part of the reason I think his ERA was, higher than it could have been is because I feel like his K per 9 was lower than it should have been for as as high as the swinging strike rate. I understand that angle. When it's also the highest of his career over a full season, I'm going to be less likely to believe it's going to go up again next year.

Well, I mean, he had a 355BRA and a 121 whip, and we're talking about Sunny Gray having a bad season, so that's probably a good sign, you know? That's kind of what I'm saying. But he did have a 3-70-old. He had a bad season in 2016. Oh, yeah, that was bad. I'm saying last season probably should have been. been better than it was for Sunny Gray, and it was still very good.

All right. Last point. Yeah, a 355 ERA is not bad. No, it's good. I mean, I mean, for this being what we consider a bad, I know that 2016 was terrible for Gray, but he was obviously hurt. If we're disappointed in Gray having a 355 ERA, a 1.21 whip and nearly a strikeout printing, you know, then I think it's pretty good. But last thing. And Scott, you should pay close attention to this.

I know you love innings. He had a, what, third time through the order. He had a 566 ERA, and the Yankees probably will have a pretty quick hook with anybody who struggles the third time through the order. That's the thing is you said. No team has ever been better, what was it, better served? Better equipped to give their pitcher a lead and hold it. No team has ever been better equipped to pull their starter in the fifth inning. Well, except for the Diamondbacks because they have a pool.

It's true. But I would say once you get to this stage in the, where I have Sunny Gray 22nd, things are like those aren't the guys you're you're counting to go seven plus consistently i mean i mean leicester and quater are there but they have big issues apart from our good friends over at fangr steamer projections have them at 186 next year i think that seems completely reasonable that's very good they also have them with a four two five er a which i think is also not that far out of the range of possibility why should i care about that i mean like what the projections say yeah it is so hard to predict baseball why the hell should i care what the stevers say no

offend steamers. Like, what are we here for? Well, what are we here for if we're just going to tell what the steamers say? Well, I just think it's nice to have occasionally when the computers agree with me to throw that number out there. When they agree with him. I'm not going to say it if it agrees with Scott. Yeah. I guess.

You know what? The steamer projection does seem like a feasible possibility, one of thousands of them. Yeah, okay. I think a 424 or a 423 or a 422. Pocoda gives him a $399. ADP Boy, where is Where is Sunny Gray going? He is actually perfectly in the middle of Scott and Heath's rankings.

He is 30th. That is the average of their rankings. When will you change your Twitter handle to at ADP Boy? I can change my display name right now, but if I change my handle, I lose my checkmark and I won't have anything to live for. Oh, okay. Yeah, we would not want to do that to Chris Towers.

constant tweeter Chris Towers. At C-Towers. At C-Tower, CBS? Yes, right? Don't follow. Don't do it. At CBS, Scott White, at Heath-C-C-C-Mex, Sr. At Heath-C-C-Comings, SR. I am at Adam Azer. A-I-Z-E-R. All right, so that was a pretty long ranking dispute segment, but good stuff. We figured out a little bit about the second base position.

We talked about Brad Hand and how many saves he might get and if he'll get traded, and I really enjoyed the sunny-gray discussion. So what about these guys? This will have to be a quicker segment, fellas. So we'll do NL only tomorrow. I want to read some emails as well at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Are we forgetting about them? Are they good late-round picks?

I have their ADP here, so you tell me if it's good value. We were pretty excited about Jose Paraza going into last year, and he had a really bad season. What about Jose Paraza? Is he still worth a late-round pick? 190th overall isn't too too late. Do you guys still like Jose Paraz? Do you want to have him on your team?

I don't. I see him as a fallback option for steals in a roto league. That'd be the only format I targeted him in. But frankly, his production in that category, which has to be the category that carries him, was not very good last year, 23 steals and caught eight times. Like, he probably shouldn't have run more than that. I think he's better than the 23 steel guy. He was all the way through the minors. he was in the half season where he played in 2016.

He is definitely someone I like targeting at the end of the draft, just as a steel specialist, but it's so hard to find guys who can help you at all on stolen bases that I do have some interest in him. I think he was being way overrated at this time a year ago, and now I think he's being way overlooked. He needs to get the Willie Mays Hayes treatment, and should have to do push-ups every time.

he hits the ball in the air. He has no pop whatsoever. None. Just pound it into the ground and get to first base. Okay. This is Jose Parraza we're talking about. Is... Heath, who's your sleeper on the Royals?

Mondesie? Raul Mondesie. Yeah. Mondesie or Parraza? Who's a better late-round pick? I think you have to say Parraza now because he is guaranteed to have a job. Yeah.

I think there is a better chance that Mondesi turns into like, oh, crap, he can't hit than Perraza at this point. But just because we haven't seen him fail as much. I'm just, I'm hoping for an empty 280 from Jose Paraza. All right, guys, next player on what about these guys is Patrick Corbyn. He's going 243 overall. We kind of forget about Patrick Corbyn.

His last 20 starts or so were pretty good. 20 games, 19 starts, 321 ERA. And he's going to be a high-whip guy, but you'll take that at 243. third overall. Patrick Corby, what do you think? I think he's kind of a poor man's Danny Duffy, and he is underrated. He is always a little hitter-pitable than you feel like he should be, and so the whip's going to be on the high side because of that. But the strikeout

rate down the stretch last year actually was pretty good. He gives you innings. He has a great lineup backing him. For me, he's just outside my top 50 starting pitchers, and I know his ADP consensus is much lower. than that. Okay, that's Patrick Corbyn. Ranking consensus, not ADP consent.

Yeah, I am not excited about a high-wip guy that gives up a bunch of home runs and doesn't strike anybody out. He has a decent strikeout, right? He's over 8 per 9, right? That's not decent anymore. That is decent. That is above average.

Yeah, I think that's... He had one bad month last season. He had a 9-E-R. He gave up 26 runs in 26 innings in five starts in May. Other than that, he was pretty much four or below four every month until September when I think he just had one bad start. Yeah, he had an eight run outing, but the others were...

You are right, Scott. It is still above average. Eight, three, four is now average. He was... Patrick Corbyn was, I think, better as a fantasy option last season than people think. Yeah. All right, moving along here. Sorry, sorry, but thank you for changing your Twitter name, by the way, which you've already done.

You're welcome. to ADP boy. Mark Trumbo, three picks after Patrick Corbyn. Mark Trumbo was a top five outfielder in 2016 and a huge bust in 2017. Are we forgetting about Mark Trumbo or should we forget about Mark Trumbo? Like, best case scenario for Trumbo, he's giving you a lot of the thing that there's a lot of. Worst case scenario for Trumbo, he's giving you absolutely nothing. And I think, you know, I think, I give him less than 50% chance of being the guy he was in 2016 again. I give him a 10% chance of being the guy who wasn't 2016.

Well, I mean, even just that kind of, like, you know, maybe not the exact line, but you know what I'm saying. One of the elite power hitters in the game. Because the quality of contact he was making last year was way down, right? Yeah, it was not as good. He looks like he just started to go off the cliff last year. I mean. Scary age. Which of these numbers isn't like the other?

14, 22, 47, 23. Yeah, 47. I did not hear any of those numbers. 47 is not like this. That's a home run total. That's a big, that's a gigantic outlier. He has one season in the last four where he's been a starting caliber fantasy option. Yeah, I would say last five because, yeah.

No, Trumbo has had one good season in his last five years. He's either hitting 2.30s or he's hitting, you know, 23 home runs. And it was just, what a, what a drop-off for him last. Now, there were a lot of injuries along the way. Yeah. Which, you know, I hit on Trumbo as a sleeper pick in 2016. So I don't want to, like, punt on the credit I get there. But, I mean, he used to be an elite hitter in his Anaheim days before, like, an elite power hitter before injuries.

So, like, I do think he still has that potential in him. I just think he's, like, it's. It's not just health that's a concern anymore. It's age also. All right. Next guy on the What About These Guys list is Hunter Renfro, who's going 23 picks after Mark Trumbo. 269th overall. Certainly a guy we were excited about as a late round pick last year, not so much right now.

Hunter Renfro. Heath, who would you rather have Renfro or Trumbo? You know, I probably have Trumbo ranked higher, but I would probably rather take a shot on Renfro in the more that I think about it. And I do think, yeah, we are overlooking him just a little bit. I mean, he still hit 26 home runs and 479 plate appearances in his rookie year. He strikes out too much. He strikes out 5 to 10% more than he did at basically any minor league level, except for 2013. I think there's a chance those Ks come down a little bit.

I think there's a chance he's a 300 Babbip guy, so he hits closer to 250, 260. We're a little too low on him. Hunter Renfro. Okay. Yeah, and for you daily fantasy players, 316, 390s. 684 slash line for Renfro against lefties. And 13 walks at 23 strikeouts against lefties. That might be part of the reason I don't hate the Padres quite as much.

I think Renfro should be better. I think Manuel Margot is probably going to be better. He was a lot better in the second half last year. Jose Porella is a sort of interesting sleeper. They have some guys. They might wind up with six players in the top 300. Let me give you a player that could be very underrated in points leagues. Brandon Belt.

Is he getting traded? It doesn't matter in points leagues. Brandon Bells is going 317th overall. Now, he doesn't have huge upside. But two years ago, Brandon Belt was the number 11 first baseman in points leagues. Last year, he only played 104 games, but, you know, I always give 155 games. If he had done that, he would have been the number 12 first baseman in points. points leagues. You shouldn't be rushing to, you know, in a shallow points league, you shouldn't be

rushing to get a guy who's upside is like 12th. But he walks a lot and he hits doubles and he gets triples. But Brandon Bell is going 317th overall. Like, that just seems way too late for him. Well, what's interesting about Brandon Bell is he averaged, and, you know, we're talking in a points league context now. He averaged last year, about the same that Justin Smoke did. fantasy points per game about the same as Matt Carpenter. You know, players we think of as ones that are definitely getting drafted in a standard mixed league. And he did it while hitting only

241. His BABIP was way lower than it normally is. So he had, in some ways, a bad year and was still on a per game basis a starting caliber first basement in that format. The problem is his best format is the one where you maybe need one. or two first base that's that's one problem and the problem also is that why did he not finish the season guy with concussion issues had a concussion that cost him like half the season so is he ever even going to be

the same that's i think that's a worthy question joe mauer's career was pretty much ruined by concussions justin more knows career was ruined by concussions it's a real it's a real concern yeah all those twins if you told me brandon belt was going to be traded to a park that doesn't just swallow left the batterer's hole, I think he'd be a top 10 for his basement. All right, and we got three more guys here. They're all going after the 330th pick. I want to take a shot on Stephen Mats. You know, 600, 6080 R.A. last year, he was terrible.

He was heard, and he wasn't throwing a slider, and he wasn't getting strikeouts. Everything was bad for his mats last year. But, you know, he's got the pedigree. He pitched pretty well in his first two seasons in the bigs. I want to take a shot on Steven Mats. You think we're forgetting about him, or are you guys kind of done with Stephen Mats? You're probably right. Yep.

I'd rather take a shot on Matt Harvey because I'm masochistic that way. So you're going to go down with the ship. Matzikistic, even. Well, yeah. I mean, if we're rolling a dice that a guy's going to hit his best case scenario with, you know, new manager who used to be a, you know, superstar pitching coach for the Indians, I'd rather do it on a guy who's upside I knew is Scyon caliber. I will say at least we have an explanation for why Mats was bad last season.

Yeah. He had the nerve surgery on his elbow. The question for me comes down to if he's throwing the slider or not. If he's throwing the slider, I think he has ace upside. If he's not, we saw last year the rest of his stuff just isn't good. He doesn't have, it's not that it's not good. He just doesn't have the swing and miss pitch that you need. to put guys away, especially when you operate more in the low to mid-90s than the mid-to-high 90s.

The thing with Matt Harvey last year was, it's not like the stuff wasn't there. Oh, the stuff wasn't there? But he was throwing hard. He had no idea where he was going. He had just no control. And I think the thing with Matt Harvey, when I look at him compared to Stephen Matt's, is I'm not sure Matt Harvey was ever a pitcher. I think he just overpowered people. the velocity was down for Harvey all year.

It was down relative to his people. But that's what I'm saying is it's not like the velocity was bad relative to major leaguers. I just don't think he can survive with good velocity. I think he needs elite velocity. We're kind of getting up on a Harvey tangent here. But the same procedure he had Mike Fultenevich had and then was throwing 100 the very next year. So I feel like my theory with Harvey now is that somewhere in his rehabilitation process, he got screwed up mechanically.

And if some pitching coach, hopefully Mickey Calloway coming in, can straighten him out again, then the velocity will come back. That's my hope. I mean, obviously, it's not kind of hope you invest a mid-round pick in, but just a flyer with your last pick, yeah, maybe. You could take a flyer on either. I think I've done both.

Yeah, and you mentioned Harvey having the same procedure as Fultenevich. Well, Matt's had the same procedure that Jacob de Grom had, moving around a ligament in his elbow. And, you know, hopefully. I thought it was a nerve. Nerve. Okay, yeah, my bad. And I knew it didn't sound right when I said it.

But, yeah, so thank you, ADP Boy. And that's Stephen Matt. Lonnie Chisenhall. Lonnie Chisnhal last year. Hit 288 with 12 homers and 82 games was his best season. He only played 82 games, unfortunately. Is there a reason to draft Lonnie Chisnall or what? He's going super late.

Oh, yawn on Chisnall. Okay. I'm like yonnie Chisnall. Yonnie. All right. we won't draft Lonnie Chis at all. He'll sit against... Well, no, will he sit against lefties?

Maybe in like a daily league context where you're taking advantage of a righty-heavy situation. A-L-only daily league where you play five outfielders. I'm in him. I will be drafting him if he's there in the last round.

I mean, he's outside my top 100 outfielders. Last guy is not drafted unless it's NL-L-only. It's Zach Wheeler. And do you have any interest in Zach Wheeler? I have interest in the disgusting thing that he's had to do all offseason to try to keep his bones from breaking. Yeah. Yeah.

He's been giving himself stomach injections of a, what is it, bone growth drug? Yeah, for usually treats patients of like osteoporosis. That's what you want to hear. Yeah, I mean, and the way it's described is it's like, this simulates a human hormone that stimulates bone growth. That sounds like. Just drink milk. How is this not on a banned substance? Like a human growth hormone?

Exactly. It's those three words on purpose. Just don't abbreviate it. You're good. Which, I mean, look, it appears to be legal. I feel like probably too many substances are banned, so I guess I'm not disappointed that this one isn't yet. I'm just confused by the inconsistency.

Can we get a list of substances, Scott thinks shouldn't be banned anymore? Okay, well, I... So to actually talk about Zach Wheeler for a half a second, he's never been good. Why would we think he will be now? He's never been healthy. Why would we think he will be now? I feel like his and Garrett Cole's careers mirrored each other pretty closely in the beginning. And then Zach Wheeler got hurt.

And Garrett Cole had a near-Sy young season. And has regressed since, by the way. So I, like, I feel like as hard as Wheeler throws, there's still some upside there that he just hasn't gotten a chance to capitalize on yet. You know, I mean, I kept falling for it with Matt Moore, so maybe I am with Wheeler, too. But, like, nobody wants Zach Wheeler, so that's what the difference is. Like, even the good versions of Zach Wheeler and Matt Moore weren't that good. Just get the control. I mean, he's got to throw strikes.

If he's walking as many batters as he walks, then he's not going to be good. Zach Wheeler's had one full season in the majors, right? And it was good. And it wasn't bad, right. He hurt you in Whip. He did. But he helped you a little bit in the RA and strikeouts, but it was a very sunny gray season. It wasn't like a, it was a sunny gray season.

It wasn't a great season. No, but look, if a guy goes out has a 354 ERA and a strikeout printing in 185 and a third, you know, and just basically has to get the walks down, and that's in his second season in the majors, like, you're encouraged by that. looking at a guy who's got potential, you're drafting him. I certainly was. You know, he missed two full seasons. He missed half of last season.

He's taken osteoporosis medicine. It's not like I'm excited to draft Zach Wheeler. No. I'm just saying I'm not. I'm not banging the gavel. Yeah, he's also thrown 86 innings in the last three seasons. Chris, you hate Zach Wheeler. We get it.

He's never been good. I mean, no, it's just that even the good version of him wasn't that good. Because of walks. That's much more accurate than he's never been. been good. That's a better way to word it. If Zach Wheeler has three starts at the beginning of the season where he's got his control down, like the walks are not there, everybody's picking them up.

For sure. And if he does what he did in 2014, it'll be owned all year. That's the way you should approach pitchers on the waiver wire anyway. If they're striking out batters and not walking them after three starts, you should probably pick them up and hope it goes. I'd rather draft Stephen Matt and Matt Harvey. If Zach Wheeler throws back-to-back no hitters, like I guarantee people are going to pick him up.

Strong disagree. But then he'll... be due for bad performances. Probably. That's true. A lot of hitters. I'd rather have Nick Povetta. Would you?

I don't know, maybe. All right. If he has three starts at the beginning year where he's striking out everybody and walking nobody, you're picking up Nick Poverthas. Yeah, probably picking up a pithetta and dropping wheeler. That's it for the show. Emails and NL only and we'll react to J.D. Martinez

in inevitable signing tonight. On tomorrow's show, thanks for listening, everybody. Fantasybaseball at cbsi.com. See ya. Thank you.