Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: SP Strategies; NL-Only Thoughts
Episode Date: February 13, 2018Can you get by with five or six SPs in your first 11 or 12 picks (2:46)? How many DL spots should a league have nowadays (7:15)? ... We play some "Hey, Real Quick" with Rougned Odor vs. Chris Taylor (...10:50), David Price vs. Robbie Ray (13:40), Jon Gray vs. Trevor Bauer (17:40) and more ... What would happen if MLB changes the baseballs in 2018 (23:30)? Also we discuss our NL-Only draft (30:00) and some quality OFs you can take very late (42:40) ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Did you hear the big news people?
They canceled the Great Sea Race at Marlins Park.
All that plus more fantasy baseball talk coming up right now on fantasy baseball today.
Welcome, everybody.
It's Tuesday morning.
It's February 13th tomorrow on Valentine's Day.
We're going to talk about players we love this year.
Today we're going to talk about a lot of guys.
We got hey real quick.
We got buy or sell.
We got some forgotten players late in the draft and plenty of your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Plus we will get to our NL-only draft.
Good morning.
Keith Chris Scott, what's up?
Hello, Adam.
I am heartbroken by the loss of the sea race, the sea creature's race.
I hope everyone can respect my privacy in this tough time.
I will miss the acid dream that was the sea creature race.
I am conflicted over the sea race thing and over the home run spectacular thing.
I'm just really confused by their plan
Because it seems like their financial plan
Is to operate like a minor league team
But then they're taking away all the minor league-ish type things
They were doing before as a franchise
Come on, come on
Come on, Derek Jeter's from the Yankees
You got to keep it serious
Take it seriously
The Yankees will not allow their new minor league affiliates
Paint those walls navy blue
Get that sculpture out of there
Get the sculpture out, I'm down with that
Julio the Octopus.
I didn't know that they even had a sea race.
I had no idea.
It's amazing.
They don't, Adam.
They don't, yeah.
I didn't know they had it.
And I've been to games.
I never noticed it.
I can understand how you missed it, but with everything else going on, you were probably
staring at the hospital ceiling.
One of my favorite things about going to games there was the ridiculous sea race.
Yeah.
And, you know, Derek Jeter just wants to make the Marlins boring again.
The last time I went to a Marlins game, I only went because
there was a free Boys to Men concert after, and it was terrific.
Yeah, that wasn't, was that at Marlins Park?
Yep.
Yeah, that's for my birthday, Chris.
I was there for my birthday.
I was there for my birthday.
Yeah, thank you.
Happy Valentine's Day to you guys.
All right, more on that.
You went from being a boy to a man.
I did.
Well, I don't want to hear about that.
Yeah, that was weird.
All right, so let's get into the show.
I'm going to ask you later.
Ruegner, Chris Taylor, David Price, or Robbie Ray, Ronald Ocuna, Nomar Mazar.
I can't believe.
I cannot believe where Heath Cummings has No Mar-Mazara ranked, so I look forward to that.
John Gray or Trevor Bauer, Yon, SS-Penessor, Andrew McCutcheon.
You people out there put your thinking caps on, and we'll get to those debates in a bit.
But here's an email of the day.
It's from Matt at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
In mock drafts, I keep finding myself drafting five or six starting pitchers by the time we hit round 12.
I believe this is Roto that he was email.
Yes, six-by-six-6-Roto.
OPS and Quality Starts are the six categories.
So I keep finding myself drafting five or six starting pitchers by the time we hit round 12.
It's usually DeGrom, Darvish, Archer, Kichel, Cole, Burrios, some mix of that.
At the time, it seems hard to pass these arms up, but at the back end, I'm finding it hard to fill some of the offensive spots in rounds 13 through 20.
Am I investing too much in starting pitcher early in the draft with five or six in the first 11 rounds or so?
Probably.
No, no, no.
Well, in a six category league, or in a 12 category league where four of the categories are, you know, categories that starting pitchers will help you in most.
It's not the worst idea.
It's just that you're, you're investing really heavily early on a lot of draft capital in risky pitchers.
Like, you know, look at the names that he's talking about.
DeGron, Darvish, Archer, Keiko, Colm, Burrios.
200 innings, all of them, guaranteed.
I mean,
Two of those guys, the two guys that you invested the most in,
have had elbow surgery in the last three years.
The next guy always seems like he should be good,
but he hasn't been in terms of run prevention.
Archer.
Kichael, we've made a lot of excuses,
but he's gotten hurt each of the last two years.
Garrett Cole hasn't been good the last two years,
and Jose Brrios has 12 good starts in the majors.
All right, but philosophically, I'm totally cool with it,
but I really find, I want to hear from Heathen, Scott, obviously,
But I really find interesting about this is Matt saying that he's having a hard time filling hitter spots in round 12 or later.
And I never really feel that way.
I always feel like first bases, great, third base should be able to find.
Second basis.
Like that is not an issue.
I think that you're misreading the hitters, Matt.
That's what I would say.
I think that we'll help you find those good values.
But you should be able to find good hitters there.
Well, it depends if you're how satisfied you are with the scooter, Jeanette, Matt Olson, you know, the less than name brand hitters who,
should still
or at least could still provide big production.
I think the difference it makes in terms of how
thin the hitter pool seems to you
in rounds 13 through 20 might have to do with how big your lineup is.
Like is this a standard rhodo lineup with the five outfielders,
the corner infield or the middle infielder?
Because if it's not, then I think this is a fine approach.
But if it is, then yeah, you might be a little thin.
I think it's very hard to find good,
and balanced hitters late.
You can find plenty of dongs late.
You can find plenty of RBI late.
If you're going to do this,
I would make sure early on
I'm getting some exposure
to someone like Jose Altuve, Tray Turner,
Starling Marte.
I want some batting average steals guys early on.
Yeah, you can't, like, it can't be
Edwin Incarnacion and Reese Hoskins
and Brian Dozier.
Like, those can't be the hitters you're drafting.
You definitely should take a hitter in a first round.
Sure, he can't.
I mean, the thing is, the early round hitters, what sets them apart, really, is that
Justin Smoke might hit for as much power or more than Anthony Rizzo.
But Anthony Rizzo is probably going to hit 275.
Justin Smok's probably going to hit $2.40.
That's really where the difference between the early round guys and the late round guys comes in,
is batting average is so hard to find late in drafts.
Uh, yeah, I mean, that and just assurance.
I mean, and, like, you used the Rizzo example.
Well, what did, what did smoke hit last year?
And I understand you may think that what he did last year.
It was smoke and mirrors.
Exactly.
You may think that, and maybe it was.
But, um, it was 270, but he's obviously capable of hitting 270 because he just did it.
Yeah, but he's a career 230 hitter and he had like 240 after the all-star.
It's more assurance.
Like, Rizzo, you know, he's going to give you that.
But then there are guys like, um, well, he used Starling Marte's in existence.
example, Anthony Rendon, you know, he's going to hit for average.
Like, you just, you definitely need to be secure in batting average with your early round
picks because that's the category that if you're getting it late, you're getting nothing else.
Okay.
Well, that's a good take on that.
Thank you very much for the email.
Matt.
Here's a second email.
Email of the day number two.
It's from John.
John is in two leagues.
One has two DL spots.
The other has four DL spots.
With the 10-day DL and more guys going on it, we all generally agree that two is not enough, and four seems to be okay.
My thought is that there should be unlimited DL spots.
Major league teams aren't limited to DL spots, so why should I be?
My prediction, Heath will agree with me because he likes to adapt to changes in baseball, a la quality starts over wins.
Chris will go back and forth and will ultimately say he doesn't care.
Scott will disagree with me because he's slow to come around on changes to the way we play fantasy baseball.
he's a traditionalist.
Adam will have less of an opinion,
but ultimately agree with Scott
because Team scam.
I think we've already done this segment.
We can move on.
No, I was the one who proposed this on the podcast last year.
That's so funny.
Told me I was wrong.
I don't think I want to check the tape.
I may have said you're wrong.
I am perfectly fine with unlimited deals.
I just assume anything you say to me, Heath,
is disagreement.
I think it just depends on what kind of league you want.
If you want a league with a lot of roster turnover
and a lot of activity on the free agency wire,
I think you have to limit DL spots.
Unlimited DL spots,
you're just going to reach a point where there's just nobody really
worthwhile on waivers.
It's true.
Like, I think,
and I think four is probably should become the new standard
with the 10-day DL.
But I wouldn't have a problem.
Like, I play in a couple leagues where,
where there's unlimited DL spots,
and I don't know,
it doesn't bother me what the waiver wire looks like.
They're deep leagues to begin with.
So maybe that's why it doesn't bother me.
But, yeah, I haven't noticed a problem with it.
Okay, here we go.
Official announcement.
Podcast League is changing 4DL spots.
Yeah.
All right.
First time.
There's other announcements coming, but we'll save those for the For the People podcast.
Oh, okay.
Later.
Okay.
There will be two podcast leagues this year.
Please don't email me about it or tweet me about it.
I will make an announcement.
When you just be patient, everybody.
We'll make an announcement after we do the podcast.
position previews, we'll tell you how to, or maybe during, we'll tell you how to get the podcast.
Can we ban anyone that asks about it before you make your announcement?
No, because we're not sure who may have heard this announcement.
Well, he just told them, do not ask about it until I give an announcement.
Wait with bated breath.
We don't know.
Who's heard of the episode.
Yeah.
All right.
So thank you, John, for the email.
You have already, you know, made some change in the podcast league, 4DL spots.
We've got a lot of other podcasts.
You people like podcasts.
You like listening to interesting stuff.
You will love CBS Sports and what we've got for you.
Go to CBSports.com slash podcast.
CBSports.com slash podcast, singular.
And you can subscribe right there on Apple Podcasts, on Stitcher, on Tune in, on Google Play.
And we'll just show you what we've got.
We've got fantasy baseball today, fantasy football today.
We have the Sportsline DFS podcast, which is doing very well.
Heath Cummings and Mike McClure giving you advice on setting a daily a DFS lineup.
Right now it's obviously a lot of NBA, but we'll also do PGA.
We'll do MLB, we'll do NFL.
So the Sportsline DFS podcast, we've got a wrestling slash boxing slash MMA podcast called In This Corner.
We've got off the bench with Danny Cannell and Rajabell.
That one's great.
We've got pick six NFL.
We've got an awesome college basketball podcast.
Go to CBSports.com slash podcast.
All right.
Ready for Hey, Real quick?
Yes.
Okay.
Now, in order to keep this hey real quick, I'm going to put a 30-second pitch clock on.
We'll expand it a little bit.
30 seconds for everybody to speak.
You can make your points.
Hey, real quick.
I can do that.
Yeah, exactly.
Hey, real quick.
Rugnet O'Dore or Chris Taylor?
Rugi.
I've always been a big Rugnet O'Dore guy.
Everybody knows that about me.
I mean, he's streaky, and we may have set expectations too high.
a couple of years ago for him.
I think expectations are too high for Chris Taylor.
Expectations may be too high for Chris Taylor.
More importantly, there's no way he's hitting 204.
And he hit 204 with a 224 of Abbott last year and still hit 30 home runs and
15 bases.
That's great.
Ruegneedador had his worst case scenario last season.
He had 170 combined runs in RBI, 30 homers, and 15 steals.
That's pretty awesome.
I moved him behind Chris Taylor in points leagues because even good Ruegnetodore
never walks.
So, you know, I think Chris Taylor's mostly legit.
Maybe the batting average is inflated, but the rest is legit.
Okay, so that's a great discussion.
Rooteney over Taylor and Rodo.
Everybody agrees there?
Yeah.
Yeah.
But Scott has Taylor ahead of O'Dore in points leagues, and I will point out,
Rootnet O'Dore in 2016, great year for him.
He hit 271 with 33 homers, 14 steals, only the number 12 second basement in points
leagues, number seven in Roto, based on the...
current crop of second basement.
So, yeah, the walk-to-strikeout ratio holds Odor back in points.
Now, let's pause from Hayre real quick and expand on Chris Taylor.
Scott, you think he's mostly legit.
He definitely looks like a one-year wonder on paper.
Why do you think Chris Taylor is legit?
He was the number 11 second basement in points, number nine in Roto, and he only played
140 games.
So why do you think Chris Taylor is legit?
He made some swing changes that allowed him to tap.
into his power better.
So, I mean, I think the powers, there's no reason to doubt the speed, first of all.
I mean, he's still, what, 17 bases last year?
And he could do that again if he plays every day.
I think the power's legit.
So, you know, 361 Bavit, it's going to be hard for him to do that again.
Maybe his batting average drops from, you know, the 288 range to the 260 range.
But if he's nearly going 20-20, dual-eligible, still going to be pretty bad.
Oh, see, this is where I struggle because, like, again, this guy was awful.
For the first three seasons, his career OPS was $5.98.
So this is where I struggle with the one-year-wonder thing.
And his one-year-old track record is not that good either.
He had a 361 Babbib, so like Scott said, the batting average could come down.
But, uh, all right.
Okay.
So next up, hey, real quick.
David Price or Robbie Ray?
Robbie Ray.
Robbie Ray?
I'm old enough to remember when I was the Robbie Ray guy
And here's the thing
Robbie Ray was a lot, a lot, a lot in 2017
Just like he was in 2016
And going into last year
He was one of my favorite regression candidates
Because his ERA was way over his FIP
And there were some people that said
You know, maybe he's just a pitcher
It's going to pitch way over his FIP
Well, last year he was way under his FIP
Almost a full run
He still walks way too many
betters. The one thing you're concerned with with David Price is maybe he's hurt. Maybe he doesn't
get you a lot of innings. Robbie Ray's never thrown 180 innings. I'll take David Price.
You say the only thing you have to be concerned with with David Price. Like it's possible he'll
just make, you know, not not do anything for you for five months of the year. Like he didn't
trust him to start down the stretch. Well, I don't, yeah, I don't know that he ever got better.
They weren't willing to let him start down the stretch last year when they obviously needed
pitching and it was just vague elbow
soreness it wasn't like something he had operated on
uh that to me
it concerns me that there could be an operation looming for him still so
i think it's possible there are people out there who are too scared of david price
and you're going to be able to get him in round 10 or later and that's great but
i mean robbie ray i feel like yes there's some regression coming with the bad bit for
rhabit for rabe but worst case scenario he's a less durable chris archer
I don't like Robbie Ray at his current price.
He's the 13th pitcher, starting pitcher off the board on average.
That seems not to be taking into account the fact that he's just an inherently risky pitcher,
but I'd still take him over David Price.
So you just really just, David Price is done.
That's what you're saying.
I think there's a decent chance of that, yeah.
All right, this is hey real quick.
So move on.
Last thing about David Price.
He had a 330RA last year, but as a starter,
He had a 382 ERA.
It was $399 the year before that as a starter.
So remember, he had eight and two-thirds scoreless innings as a reliever at the end of the regular season that made his overall numbers look better.
And he's awesome as a reliever, too.
Yeah, I could go either way with Price.
If you're comparing him to Robbie Ray, that's kind of scary if you're comparing him to, you know, Mike Clevenger or somebody.
I'd rather take that upside of price.
All right.
Hey, real quick, Ronald Acuna or Nomar Mazzara.
Acuna or Mazara?
Agunya.
I had just moved him up yesterday,
and I wish I could move him up more.
I think
I think if he
sets the world on fire this spring,
it's going to be like Chris Bryant
in 2014, was it?
All over again,
where suddenly he's a fifth, sixth round pick in fantasy.
Like, he's the best
preseason prospect since Chris Bryant.
I might argue going further back,
Um, just what he did last year as a, as a 19 year old.
Yeah, last year was 19.
Yeah.
What he did in double A and then AAA as a 19 year old is pretty spectacular.
It compares very favorably to what Mike Trout did at the same age and the same levels.
So no more Mazarra, I think there's a bit of post-hype breakout potential for him.
Um, except that I think like half of the fantasy community,
believes in the hype
and half of it doesn't
and so I'm not sure
you can get him at a discount.
Yeah, I'm still a No More Mazarra believer.
Listen, if you were asking me
who do I want in Dynasty,
I would take Acuna 10 out of 10.
I'd probably even take him
if it was a keeper where he could keep him
for three years.
But if you're asking me who I want
for this season, I'll take Mazar.
All right, who do you, hey, real quick,
who do you want?
John Gray or Trevor Bauer?
John Gray or Trevor Bauer?
I want Bauer, because,
he doesn't pitch in Colorado.
That's probably the right answer.
I mean, yeah.
I mean, it doesn't look like it's going to be a death knell for Gray,
so that's, you know, good for him.
But, you know, even as good as, quote, unquote,
good as he was last year, sub 4ERA,
swinging strike rate was low,
and we haven't seen him hold it together for a full season yet.
Like Trevor Bauer from...
You've never seen Trevor Bauer hold it together.
Well, that time...
He just had his career year.
When Nicky Calloway took data to Cory Klobber and Trevor Bauer,
the end of May last season said,
you guys got to start throwing your curveball more.
Both of them took off from that point.
And obviously, Cory Kluber took off to much higher heights,
but Bauer was the best Bauer we've seen in the majors.
And it looks like a good strikeout pitcher now.
I'll take John Gray.
Okay.
Bauer looked pretty damn good last year.
year. I don't know if he can do that again, but it looked like something changed.
He was a former, you know, big-time prospect. So it's an interesting call on Trevor Bauer.
But like when you compare Bauer to Chris Taylor, I feel like I'm more inclined to buy Bauer because he has pedigree.
And has been, I mean, like, again, Chris Taylor was never even a little bit good before last year.
No, I agree that Bauer, but.
I know it's a separate discussion.
If we're sticking with the full season statistics are generally more predictive.
which I think that Chris would like it if we did
What are we buying into with Bowery?
He had a 419 ERA, at a 137 win.
Well, John Gray's never had a full season that good.
He had a sub fouriery last year.
Yeah, if you're just, if you just have this blanket policy
that I'm going to pay attention to the season long whip
over any adjustments that might have been made in season,
then Bauer's not good and you shouldn't draft them.
Like, I'm not even saying, right, I'm not even saying,
I'm not going to pay attention to anything.
I'll give him a little bit of upside for that,
but it's four years in a row of a 418 to 455 ERA.
That's really consistent.
Four years in a row, I have a whip between 131 and 138.
It's really consistent.
I'm not buying into Trevor Bauer.
It's just that, like, John Gray can be an ace.
I think he has the talent to be one of the best pitchers in baseball.
And I still think his ceiling is probably closer to a 4ERA.
Okay.
Hey, real quick, last one.
Yohanna Caspidus or Andrew McCutcheon.
McCutcheon.
And maybe this is unfair.
I'm just having a hard time seeing much value in Yonis Cespidus, as often as he's hurt and in this environment where he just doesn't stand out as much.
Because power hitting, you know, relatively low EBP power hitting.
Oh, man.
See, I don't...
If he stays healthy, he's a four-category.
Yeah, he's a monster.
I know a lot of guys hit home runs, I get it, but, like, when Yohannaes Pespedus is at his best,
I mean, look, his slugging percentage the last three seasons is between 530 and 542.
I mean, that's really good betting ever-christ.
Since getting to the Mets, he's hitting 285 with a 900 OPS.
The problem is he's played 270 games in two and a half seasons.
Like, there's no difference between him and Jose Abrae.
He's better than Jose Abrae.
Yeah.
Well, I definitely like Jose O'Brien.
Because Abraeu stays healthy.
I think in terms of what the phenotype, like, yes, Cesspit is very similar to
Abreu.
But I just, I don't trust him to be available more than two-thirds of the season.
Of course.
Of course, because of that.
And honestly, I don't, to me, this isn't even close.
If they play the same amount of games, I'm taking Cespittus over McCutcheon.
And you know I'm not high on, but I think we all would if they were all going to play.
Even though I'm the low guy on McCutcheon always,
I think you'd have to say that.
He's just a better player on a per-game basis.
That one's tough, because McCutcheon will steal,
and he got back to 11 stolen bases last season.
You could take 11.
It was the fluke.
But that's valuable.
Yeah, it's fine.
It's not enough for me to give up Cepadus.
Isn't going to steal any bases.
I don't know.
He did not steal a base last year in 81 games.
He sold three the year before, seven the year before that.
So, I mean, we're talking about
His seal is, his ceiling is, it might be a six
deal difference. Because I don't rank Cesspit
is anywhere close to McCutcheon. I do.
Like, I rank him close to Ryan Braun.
I feel like they're in a similar spot.
They're on teams with too many outfielders
to fit in.
The olding, the aging
guys who are often hurt,
I just don't know that they're going to be treated like
everyday players anymore. I will just say
the Mets have too many outfielders until they don't.
And Cessbit is part of that, but Conforto doesn't have a strong history of health.
Jay Bruce, I think once again will be a trade candidate come July when the Mets are out of it.
Chris hates Jay Bruce.
Chris hates Jay Bruce.
He does hate J. Bruce.
And the one thing we should bring up in this conversation is Andrew McCutcheon is moving into maybe the only ballpark that is worse than the one he played in last year.
Let's wrap it up because this is hey real quick.
Go ahead.
Final thought.
Is it works for Rites?
I believe so.
I know it is for lefties.
I'm not...
Maybe it is.
Final thought is...
Sespitis was sitting like once a week last year, even when he was healthy.
That's...
That's going to drive me crazy.
His hamstrings are too big.
It's a good thought.
It's a good thought, Scott.
Thank you for wrapping that up.
All right.
News and notes, other than canceling the Great Sea Race.
I have an important theory that I'd like to run by you.
They're going to change the baseballs this year.
They were just wound too tight.
They were juiced.
Two reasons they're going to change the baseball.
We've talked about this a lot.
Scott and I believe, I don't know how Team Creeth feels about this, but Rob Manfred, he wants more action.
He wants more balls in play, and this will help if they, you know, dejuice the baseball a little bit.
But also, remember all those damn blisters last year?
They have to change the baseball.
Too many blisters.
Aaron Sanchez, blisters all the time.
Johnny Quato, blisters all the time.
It was crazy.
So that's why they're going to change the baseball.
and that really could change fantasy baseball.
Wait, are you announcing they're going to change the baseball?
No.
Theory.
Adam.
Yes.
Have you been drafting as if this is the case?
No, but that's what I'm saying.
Maybe we should.
How would you draft?
But that's the thing is that, like, they may, in which case, like, if you believe they're going to change the baseball,
Elvis Andrews is probably someone you should move way down your draft board.
I really do believe they're going to change the baseball.
I think the Twisters are big part of it.
I can't.
I don't know that's.
true. I mean, his career
high in home runs is eight. But why would you
single him out? Because he's
the kind of marginal power hitter who
would benefit the most from
that kind of increase. But he's always been a good
fantasy option even when he would
like, right, but like that was in a good
fantasy option of other players
are losing home runs too.
Yeah, but that was in a much different
league context and he also like
hit 300 for the first time. We're resetting
the league context. But he was a 260
hitter for a long time before the last
two seasons as well yeah i i think if and if you think the ball is going to change marginal power
hitters should be devalied and guys like yo and sest by all that line i mean like joey gallo mucky
bets has never had a 30 homer season right is he yeah but he was probably but he was hitting home runs
even before they changed the ball the the ball was as far as we know the ball seemed to have changed
around the all-star break of 2015 mooky betts two best power
seasons have come in the last two years. I'm just saying if you believe that there's a chance
that this happens, you should probably pay up for Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo,
guys who have legitimate 40 Homer power regardless of the ball. I don't disagree with that.
But I'm not going to because I just, I can't make that kind of change based on no evidence.
I mean, I feel like you, like I could understand, if you're going for the max power guys,
and first of all, it's a theory. So, you know, the great theory.
It doesn't seem like they're going to get...
It's a discussion worth the time we're spending on it.
It doesn't...
No, it's a discussion worth having us.
I think it is a discussion worth having.
Like, there is a chance that the balls change.
I would expect it does.
I hope so.
So, but you'd be, what you'd be doing is you'd be trying to thread the needle
trying to hit those exact guys while also condemning your team to a very lopsided roster
if it doesn't, if the balls don't change.
So I, like, realistically, you're going to have to draft some of those two.
20 homer guys who you wouldn't have seen hitting 20 homers three years ago.
And trying to pick and choose who's going to win and lose out of that, I feel like, is a losing exercise.
I mean, I think Chris is, you know, coming at it with the right process of, like, this guy never hit for power before the juice ball.
So, yeah, Elvis Andrews, you would value him like you would have three years ago.
John Carlos Jant never hit for 50 home runs before the juice.
Yeah, but he still was an elite power hitter.
We know that.
He might be a 40 homer guy now.
Right.
But that's...
But that's...
He's losing 10.
Andrews is losing 10.
Why does it matter?
It's a big difference.
Players, it's percentage wise.
Not hitting for power.
Like, players took the Daniel Murphy turn before the ball was used, too.
And it's just some of these power games are legit apart from the ball.
Well, the other angle of it is, like, look at Quato in his horrible season.
If they change the ball, this blister problem was a real pain in the butt last year for a lot of pitchers.
Right.
So I think that would help pitchers.
But I just, I don't think.
it's actionable. Like, it's a discussion worth having, but ultimately, like, if you play in 10 leagues,
make one of your leagues a complete, like, I'm going to approach this as if it's 2015 all over again.
Okay. I think that's the only answer.
The Dodgers could be signed Chase Utley, according to John Heyman, and St. Louis is expected to sign
Bud Norris, who had a nice little run as a closer last year. What do you think?
You think Bud Norris has closer potential for the Cardinals?
Luke Gregerson is who...
they're saying is their closer to start out.
Is Luke Gregerson so good that he can't lose the job to Bud Norse or somebody else?
I wouldn't say that, but he's had success in the role in the past, too.
And I'm still not convinced they're not going to bring in somebody even better.
You think that Scott Boris is going to release Greg Holinsund soon?
I mean, I don't know. He's got to find work for these guys, right?
Isn't that part of his job as their agent?
make sure they're working and being compensated for their work.
I mean, and I know he's angling for max compensation right now,
but at some point he has to relax that because they have to work, don't they?
Stephen Drew disagrees.
We should talk about the Marlins, closer news.
Oh, tell me about it.
Right?
Didn't they announce yesterday Brad Ziegler's the closer?
At the start of the season, he will be the closer.
I'll take the under.
I don't know what you're setting it at.
I mean, he's been so, when he's, like, he's been the guy who they don't want him closing at the beginning, they eventually relent and let him close, and he just totally stabilizes the role.
Mediocre closer on the worst team in baseball with an awful defense.
You know, I don't, he hasn't been a mediocre closer is a thing.
We would just, we would guess that strikeout rate translates to mediocre closing.
but it hasn't been the case
and he has obviously the
the unusual delivery
I think he gets a ton of ground balls
I think he'll probably be fine until they trade him
Yeah there's a zero percent chance he's a closer all season
So take him with your last pick
Brad Ziegler was a 20th round pick in our NL only draft
So let's talk about our NL only draft
Fellas what do you think of the draft
Compare it to AL only what are the differences
It was the best draft I've done all season
season.
Wow.
Were you not in it?
I did not participate.
Oh, right.
Yeah.
Yeah, no, I mean, the first round is really loaded.
Like, you've got great point.
We did a 10 team head-to-head points draft.
NL only, 21 rounds.
First round is just beautiful.
And then, I don't know.
The hitter is really thin out pretty quickly in the NL.
In my, IMO, in my opinion.
Yeah.
Well, I mean, that's kind of always true because there's one less hitter in a lineup.
Right.
There's O'DH.
And so that removes, what, 15 potential fantasy caliber hitters from the player pool.
It's a big deal.
And so, you know, also because of that, the pitchers tend to be a little better in the NL.
I've found that both of those cases, both of those tendencies are less extreme this year than most years,
because NL has all the best first baseman,
the Big 4 plus Bellinger.
So it's very deep there.
It has most of the good outfielders.
It's much deeper in the outfield.
Where it's weak compared to the AL are the traditionally weak infield position,
second base shortstop and third base.
And you made a good point.
I picked 10th, so I was at the turn there.
It was a 10-team league.
And because first base is so deep,
people passed over the first round caliber first baseman
and Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman
were clearly the best two hitters left
and I thought, you know, I'm not going to worry about blocking my utility spot early.
I'm going to take both those first basemen here at the turn.
And then you took Corey Seeger right afterward.
Oh, I was so, I did the wave.
I was so happy when I drafted Corey Seeger 12th overall.
Yeah, and you pointed out, man, shortstop is terrible.
And I should have known this because I'd just done a video talking about
the differences between AL and NL.
The shortstop pool in the NL is Trey Turner, Corey Seeger,
and then it drops off to like Trevor Story, Paul DeYoung.
Danesby Swanson, I think, is sixth in my shortstop rankings in the NL.
Corey Seeger could easily be a first round pick.
In fact, if I were doing it again, I took, well, no, I think I'd still go.
I took Bryce Harper 9th.
I have no regrets there.
Seager could easily, though, be a first round pick, you know, just because of the position scarcity,
which is like Chris you always talk about you got to you know you're just going to go best player
available and not worry about it that obviously changes in a state of the obvious but that obviously
changes it changes a little bit but I think you're absolutely insane if you take core seger over
freddie freeman or anthony rizzo or Bryce harbour well any of them with one pick insane I would rather
have Freddie Freeman and paul de young than Corey seger in whichever first baseman
you're going to have to take in the night going to have to over
No, I took Paul DeYoung in the ninth round.
That's not really an overpay.
I'd have Corey Seeger in round suit than Paul DeMond.
And Paul DeYoung or Josh Bell and Corey Seag.
I don't think it's a competition.
Those are the first and ninth round picks at first base and shortstop.
I think it's pretty equitable.
And this is how I approached it because, yes, I think Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo are clearly more productive hitters than Seeger.
Yeah.
I don't think I would have been crazy to take Seeger over one of the.
them but I chose to do what I did and whatever.
I waited to like the second to last round and took Chris Owings as my shortstop.
That's how I think you should approach it.
Like if you get Trey Turner, Corey Seeger, you know, if it lines up for you to take the
former in round one, the latter in round two, great.
But otherwise, like, I mean, Chris Owings is going to be basically an everyday player for
the dime effects.
Like just get somebody getting every day at bats.
and don't pay too much.
See, yeah, Chris, I agree that, you know, I have to, I would take Freeman over Seeger and I would take Rizzo over Seeger.
Scott took them both Freeman and Rizzo, and he could have done Freeman and Seeger, or Rizzo and Seeger.
I probably would have gone that route.
I wouldn't.
I just, I think the gap between how much you're going to get from those guys and how much you're going to get from Corey Seeger,
unless you think there's a big breakout for Corey Seeger coming, which is certainly possible.
But what he's been so far, it's just not even in the same universe as Freddie Freeman and Anthony Risko.
Yeah.
So to frame this, to give this some context, Chris doesn't like Seeger.
Well, I just think he's, he does not like considering the depth of positions.
No, that's not.
Well, that's not even what I'm saying.
I'm not going to give Corey Seeger this massive bump just because he plays shortstop.
When you look at the numbers and they're just.
just okay he doesn't stand out anywhere he doesn't steal bases so you're looking at
he stands for average he right but so does fredy freeman and court and anthony rizzo and they're
better they're better in every single place they are they are better they play the deepest position
in an ill-only league and cori seger plays the shallowest and there's like i understand there's not as
much distinction between depth of positions in mixed leagues but certainly in this context i mean right
Yeah, I would agree with you, Chris, in mixed leagues for sure.
Look, I think in shallower leagues you can take it into account.
I just think the gap between those guys, like, Corey Seeger and Anthony Rendon.
Corey Segar was about 95% as good as Anthony Rendon last year.
And Anthony Rendon's not someone we're considering with the first round pick.
Well, I almost took them, actually.
It was between, I was definitely taking Freeman.
It was between taking the second first baseman Rizzo,
Seeger or Rendon
Because third base
The depth dropped not nearly as quick as shortstop
But it drops up pretty quick in the NL pool too
So I was
I was considering Rendon there yeah
And the number
12 first baseman outscored the number 12 shortstop
By about 140 points in NL only last year
Oh that's a lot
What about the number like 20 first base
Because you're going to start a
Well because you're going to start a bunch of first basemen at utility too
And you're going to start a couple of first basemen
a third base like that
yeah
like nobody's starting a short stop
at utility so comparing the number 12 guy to the number
12 guy doesn't really
I think there could be somebody starting a short stop at utility
in NL only
probably not in NL only
but I could I it's not
set up to count down to 20 very easily it took me
that long to count down to 12
so I'm not looking at an L
well it's only a 10 team league to keep that of mind
right I mean there is
I
originally
agreed with Chris's take that we're probably overreacting to position
scarcity. I just think he's taken it a little too far. There is no difference. I think
you can, no, you can take it into account, but the gap between what Anthony Rizzo and
Corey Segar are going to do? The gap between a replacement level first baseman and shortstop is
100 points. Yeah, I, you know what? If you're comparing the number 12 one to the number 12 one,
which is one way to do it, it's not the way I would do it. Okay, 18, like, I was 100
25 12 to 12.
So we could drop down to 18 maybe.
There's a lot of outfitters
you're going to start at utility as well.
So hold on.
I really think that this is,
this sounds more like a Corey Seeger discussion
than a position scarcity discussion.
Because as Scott was trying to say,
Chris just isn't as high on Corey Seeger.
Well, how much better do you think Corey Seeger's going to be this year
than he has been the last two seasons?
Yeah, I don't know.
I have a second tier shortstop.
I tear him behind Lindor
and, you know,
Correa Turner.
but I think he has that kind of upside.
He's basically been close to an MVP caliber player
his first two years in the majors pre-25.
I think he's had bad RBI luck both years.
And I think the best is yet to come for him.
So, you know, if he's only as good as he was last year,
which, by the way, wasn't even as good as his rookie season,
so let's not assess him just on that.
I don't think, you know, in a mixed league contest, taking him early in round three,
I don't think that's going to end up bad for you.
Okay, so let me just focus us back here.
Let's talk more broad and more, you know, bigger points on NL only and what your strategies were.
I was content to wait on second base because Scott has got me believing in Scooter Jeanette a little bit.
And let's see when I took Scooter Jeanette.
That was in round eight.
You know, so I was content to wait on Outfield.
I think it's the same in AL only and NL only.
I'd love to get one really awesome outfielder, and I have Harper.
And then after that I took Adam Eaton, Dexter Fowler.
Those guys are much better in points leagues.
And I took them in rounds, 7 and 13.
Fowler was 13.
So, you know, I feel like outfield, my strategy in these deeper leagues is probably going
to be like try to get one elite guy, but that's not a position that I'm going to reach on
in the middle round.
Like, I'm not going to take Andrew McCutche and I don't think in an NL only league.
Because I see too much downside and, like, I just see too many outfields, too deep of a position for me to invest a fourth round pick and a guy that I don't love.
So if I'm taking an outfielder, I better love the value.
I think that's how you got to approach it.
The deeper the position, you got to love the value.
Don't reach at deep positions.
I probably shouldn't be talking.
I'm going to stop talking because I don't ever play out NL only or A L Only League.
I only do the drafts?
So you guys take it away, but I guess I would cue it up as saying, do you agree, don't reach at deep position?
and what are the deposition?
And it'll only
it's first base and outfield.
And yeah, I agree with that.
I would also add, and we've had this discussion on the podcast
recently about the name brand
versus the generic brand player players
who realistically could give you close to the same production,
but one costs a lot more than the other,
usually because they're safer than the other.
And safety counts for a lot in mixed leagues, I think.
I think in this format where,
I think in this format by buying generic, you know, the league-specific format,
buying generic gives you a chance to be much stronger overall than it does in a mixed league.
Because if you believe Cesar Hernandez is basically going to be as productive, and, you know,
this is a points league context, if he's basically going to be as productive as,
DJ LaMayhew, then don't pay up for DJ LaMayhew.
Like, yeah, you're taking a bigger risk with that,
but there are going to be people with holes in every lineup.
Like, things are going to go wrong,
and there's not going to be much of a waiver wire.
So there's going to be disaster happening to everybody's team.
if you're
I understand it
I'm trying to complete the thought
No it's honestly it's completed
It's try to identify players that are similar
That you can get later in the draft
Heath I'll ask you this
You know when you play out AL only
And All Only leagues
How do you find the waiver wire?
Is it
Is it really that how much
How similar is your team from the one you drafted
By the end of the year
How similar is your team from draft it?
It's more similar
Similar than it is in a mixed league
For sure
Waiver Wire
is mostly awful, but only if you look at it in the same context as you would have mixed league.
There's still going to be guys that come up and have AL or NL-only value.
What you really have to be careful with in these types of leagues is I'm not saving my fab.
If there is someone that can make an actual real impact, like a mixed league type impact,
that's available on the waiver wire, I'm going for it.
Okay.
All right.
That's going to conclude today's thoughts on NL only.
It will not be the last time we talk about AL only or NL only.
I do want to save some time for emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
We got by our cell, but I'm going to put that off until probably tomorrow, maybe Thursday.
So here are some late-round outfielders going in between 246.
Or ADP Boy, would you like to tell us when these outfielders are being drafted?
Between 246 and 262nd, Adam.
That's why he's 80P boy, everybody.
We love him.
All right, so I'm just going to give you all four of these outfielders.
Yesterday we did eight players, but let me just give you four today.
They are Josh Reddick, Nick Williams of the Phillies, Michael Brantley, and Dexter Fowler.
Josh Redick, Nick Williams, Michael Brantley, and Dexter Fowler.
This is after round 20 now in a 12-team league, probably not even drafted in a 10-team league.
You tell me, who do you like Reddick, Nick Williams, Michael Brantley, Dexter Fowler,
and do you think any of them represent great value this late in the draft?
I love Dexter Fowler.
I think he is a great value.
He's probably not going to play more than 130 games.
He hasn't either the last two seasons or four out of the last five.
But, you know what, he walks a ton.
He plays at the top of a good lineup.
He can hit for power.
He can steal a few bases.
As either a fifth outfielder in a roto league or a bench guy in head-to-head,
I think he's a tremendous value.
I think people are forgetting about him because he's not a sexy name.
My problem with Dexter Fowler is that he does walk a lot.
He has a good walk-to-strike-out ratio.
He's better in points leagues, but there's not enough outfield spots to play him.
I think he's a fine...
He'd be the first guy I'd pick up in a points league if one of my guys got injured.
And on a per-game basis, actually, if he's healthy,
I think Dexter Fowler needs to be owned in points leagues.
Oh, yeah, on a part game, if he is healthy, but he never is.
But he ideally would start the season healthy.
He probably would.
He would.
And, you know, he'll start healthy, and he'll be good enough to be a third outfielder for you.
And then he'll get hurt, and you'll wish you had a different third outfielder.
But he costs you nothing.
But here's the thing.
Michael Brantley, I feel like, still has a lead upside.
Like, he could still be A.J. Pollock.
Yes.
And maybe he won't be recovered in time from ankle surgery.
Maybe he'll never be the same again, but you're talking about just a total flyer at the end of a draft.
I'd rather have Brantley.
But Brantley and Fowler are very similar.
In fact, they average right around, you can check this, Scott, double-check it,
but I think they average right around the same amount of fantasy points per game.
They did last year.
Yeah, last year.
But Brantley, that wasn't Brantley's best.
No, and they're both better in points leagues, and Brantley is a really good double source.
First of all, do we agree that Brantley and Fowler are the two best of this group of Redick Williams,
Brantley Fowler? If we knew Nick Williams
was going to play every day, he might be.
He'd be interesting. He'd be interesting.
And kind of the same with Reddick.
Yeah, I feel pretty confident Redick's not going to play every day.
Brantley, Fowler, Williams, and Reddick.
You mentioned A.J. Pollock, he's being drafted like 60th right now.
So in terms of just value, Michael Brantley is the generic version of A.J. Pauli.
that I would much rather have at the price.
Yeah.
Yes.
It's not the cleanest comparison because we don't exactly know who A.J. Pollock is right now, I feel like.
He has more stolen base upside for sure.
For sure.
I think the batting average upside is similar.
I think the power upside is similar.
Both playing great lineups.
And I think just based on the fact that Pollock hit 260-something last year, I think Brantley's the safer source of batting average, which helps close the gap a little.
but he has to be healthy.
Okay.
Well, those are some late-round outfielders.
Josh Redick, Nick Williams,
Michael Brantley, and Dexter Fowler.
That's why we'll probably have this discussion a lot,
but, you know, that's why I don't love taking a lot of outfielders early.
You're going to be kicking yourself when you see some of these players that are available late in the draft.
That's true, but you also, like these guys are not going to stay in your lineup.
No, yeah, but this is, I mean, this is like the two.
60s, but it's just a deep position.
Like, in the 15th round, you're going to be looking at some good players.
You don't want to have all three of your outfielders in a three outfielder league by the 10th round,
I would think.
Remember, we talked about this a lot last year, Heath.
I think we were on opposite ends of this.
Yeah, I don't really care.
It depends on who the outfielers are.
Yeah, I still care a little.
You don't want to be drafting Michael Conforto as your third outfielder in round 10.
No, but I'll be drafting out.
Or even like Eddie Rosari.
Round 10, I don't know if, like, Jay Bruce is the guy.
Right.
I'd rather just wait.
If you've already filled two outfield spots, you're not filling your outfield in round
10 with Jay Bruce.
That's a better example of the ones I was coming up with.
So what, you just, you drafted earlier, or you just keep waiting and waiting and waiting.
I'm fine with drafting.
Like, if the, if the, the way the draft goes, I end up with Christian Yalich is my number
three outfielder, I'm going to be pretty happy with that, regardless of who might be
available later.
Like, let's say you take Trout first round, you take George Springer, third round.
and then round eight comes along, and for some reason,
Justin Upton's there.
Like, I'm not going to pass on Justin Upton's
just because I already have two outfielders.
I probably would.
I'd probably go starting pitcher there.
Okay.
You know, obviously I don't know what you're going to be.
Maybe you already have three starting pitchers.
Then I'd go four.
I'd rather load up on starting.
I'm serious.
I'd rather load up on starting pitchers than outfielders.
There's one thing I've learned playing fantasy baseball
in a three outfielder league,
which is often a four outfielder league
because your utility is outfield a lot of the time.
Like, that is definitely the,
easiest position to find on waivers.
I don't disagree at all. I think you're absolutely right, but I still think you have to
adjust your plans to the context of what's available to you in a draft.
And if there's obvious value at the outfield, you should still take an outfielder.
Sure.
All right, let's do some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Bill from East of Toronto, London is east of Toronto, right?
Sure.
Yeah.
I enjoyed listening to your analysis of name brand versus generic.
It got me thinking of Aaron Sanchez.
Is he the biggest boom-bust pitcher this year?
Where do you rank Aaron Sanchez among starting pitchers?
I'm in a 12-man, 5-5-league, and where would you draft him there?
Also, I just saw 2017's Mom and Dad,
and I recommend you see it, Nicholas Cage's best movie since Lord of War.
I will maybe pick up Aaron Sanchez if he has like three good starts to start the season.
but I don't see a reason to draft him.
I'm fine taking him.
He's going to get drafted.
Yeah, I'm fine taking him.
I don't understand why.
Why?
He has a good...
He has a good...
He has a good season.
What do you mean?
Wait, man.
He had one very fortunate season.
But it was so good.
What did he have, a 3ER or something?
He did he lead the AL and ERA?
He had a 3ERA, yes.
Mm-hmm.
So I'm to say, like, even if that's lucky, how bad could he be?
If he's a 350 ERA's probably...
I mean, the thing is, I don't think a 3ERA is a realistic ceiling for Aaron Sanchez.
He threw, what, 40 innings last year.
Yeah.
He struck out 6.9 batters per 9 over his career with 3.5 walks per 9.
That's...
And he's going to be pitching for a bad team.
The thing about Aaron, and it's a weird...
I know it's not something we normally do, factoring in strikeout upside.
I don't think we've seen the best he has to offer in terms of strikeout ability
because he started his career in relief.
His arsenal hasn't been totally fleshed out.
He has a lot of velocity.
He has, and it's not just like straight velocity.
He has a lot of good sinking action.
I think, you know, Carlos Martinez didn't start out as a big strikeout pitcher either.
And I feel like Aaron Sanchez could follow him down that same road.
It's just, can't get over the blitzers?
Mr. Issues.
And he has to follow up what he did in 2016 because it was only one year of it.
Well, what he did in 2016 is not really sustainable, though.
He has to be it better.
If he does what he did in 2016, like if he strikes out seven and a half batters for buying.
If he does that again, I would expect him to have a higher ERA.
But that doesn't mean he won't be somebody you want to start every week.
Yeah.
Okay, so give me a round in a 12-team five-by-five week.
No.
No, for Heath.
I would start looking at him at him 17, 18.
Yeah, I think I have him.
That's where he falls in my rankings,
about round 17.
You could probably get him a little later than that,
but that's where I'd start.
That's Aaron Sanchez.
This is from Ben.
I saw Brockmeyer was on Hulu,
so I checked out your recommendation.
It's awesome.
Oh, yeah, Brockmeier's the best.
Just FYI, Yahoo just put out their 2018 rankings.
Folks who thought Kyle Schwerber was catcher eligible, for example,
they were looking at 2017 numbers.
Makes sense.
Oh, oh.
All right, then.
All right, next email.
Thank you for two interesting notes there, Ben.
Everybody watched Brock Myers.
It's best.
Kevin Tran from Toronto, Canada, says,
hey, Rick, Randy, Dave, and Paul.
Is that a wrestling thing?
It is.
Heath, would you've gotten that if he didn't tell us
and the PS what it is?
Yeah, I don't know that I could get all of them.
Rick Flair, Randy, Orton,
and I don't know the rest.
Okay.
Dave Battista?
Yeah.
And Paul is Triple H.
Are you Googling?
Chris, you don't know wrestling.
I, excuse me.
I watched wrestling very regularly in the early 2000s.
Chris isn't as highbrow as you think, Adam.
I go to a bar that plays nothing but wrestling on the television.
Really?
Yes.
He's probably a snob about his wrestling now.
I mean, it was better in the two.
He goes and sits at the bar and tells people he doesn't know.
Like, did you see how he?
He faked that.
He didn't actually hit him there.
That wasn't real.
You don't know anything about me because I would never talk to a person I don't know at a bar.
Ever.
I wouldn't either.
Yeah, that might think.
All right, planning to start a weekly head-to-head categories league.
Categories are still to be determined, but it will likely be six by six.
So give me your thoughts on the following.
Average or OBP?
OBP.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, I'm a traditionalist, but this isn't really a traditional format anyway.
So let's go OBP.
Wins or quality starts?
Quality starts.
I kind of like the strategy, especially now the innings that there's a big gap in how deep certain tiers pitchers pitch.
I kind of like the strategy of pursuing wins, and quality starts is too much of an equalizer.
I'm going to go wins.
Chris?
Yeah, I don't.
I think both stats are not very valuable or good, so who cares?
Helpful.
Thank you, Chris.
I'll say wins.
Stolen bases or no stolen bases?
Of course.
Stolen bases, of course.
And would you give a win for each category victory, or just majority of categories equals one win for the week?
Majority of categories equals one win.
No, what?
No.
What the hell is the matter with you?
That's the worst take of the show.
This is team caught right now.
Sorry, I'm siding with Chris.
What the heck?
I think it opens the door to more strategy, just allowing people to punt at certain things or to,
at least intentionally go weak at certain things.
And I just, I've said it before and I've gotten some pushback, but I just, I think
people like fantasy football for a reason.
The head-to-head aspect of it is a thing people love.
We don't have to dumb down fantasy baseball.
This is still a head-to-head aspect.
But I don't think it is dumbing down.
Like Scott said, there's strategy in it.
You can punt certain positions and still get it to win.
You can do that as well when each category counts as a win.
Absolutely.
do that all the time. They try to win three out of five
pitching categories every week by punting...
You can. There's less incentive to it. Starting pitcher.
I don't know. I think I really hate you guys
so much right now. Next email...
Yeah, just don't have played in a league that Chris or Scott set up.
I don't need the categories to begin with, so maybe don't listen to me.
A confused janitor at MIT says, I may clean up a lot of crap, but I'm certainly no
will hunting when it comes to mathematics prowess.
Could somebody elaborate on why a 2-5 ERA from a from a release?
leaf pitcher is less valuable than a 3-5 ERA from a starting pitcher, all other things being
equal.
I sort of get the whole less innings have less impact thing, but if I have, but if I have no
innings minimums, does it really matter to me?
Won't a 2-5-ERA and 60 innings serve to get my ERA lower than a 35-ERA in 180
innings?
All other things are not equal.
To answer your question, though, because that's what we like to do here.
You cut me off.
Yeah, like, Chris has done the most.
go ahead.
Yeah, but I hate Chris right now.
The 2.5.
ERA in 60 innings, if there is no innings minimum, will likely help your ERA more than the
35 ERA over 180.
Yep.
If, however, you are still three of the five categories are counting stats, you're still
trying to get strikeouts, you're still trying to get wins.
So, yes, you might be better served not chasing big innings.
eaters and just getting that ERA and whip as low as possible.
But you reach a point of diminishing returns on those things because you are hurting yourself
in strikeouts and wins in that scenario.
So you do still have to compete in strikeouts and wins.
You are going to need innings.
And at that point, the value of that 2.5 ERA starts to become diluted.
Okay.
Just one thing here.
So I think you're, correct me from wrong, you're basically talking about season-long roto, right?
Yes.
Because in a head-to-head categories league, it's completely different.
You can play everybody.
You can throw your starting pitcher out there when he's starting,
and then you can put those relievers in every single day
and still get every category, you know, and not have to sacrifice.
Well, and you don't have to –
Also, you can – especially if you're playing in a league where it's just one win or one loss,
you can completely throw wins and K's out.
Yeah, this is a discussion entirely about season-long.
Right, which is the worst for that.
is discussing or not.
Well, it's not completely.
I mean, the person who starts more starters is going to probably win strikeouts
and wins.
And the person who starts relievers.
So it still applies.
It doesn't apply as well.
Well, that's why I recommend in a head-to-head categories league with daily
transactions, daily lineups, to just load up on pitchers on your bench and not have that many hitters.
So you can have the combination of starting pitchers to work.
win the counting stats and relievers to win the ratio.
And I would love to get like four or five closers at least.
But the thing is, you still run into the issue of,
am I going to start this marginal starting pitcher to give me more wins and strikeouts
and dilute the impact of my relievers by doing that?
And that's that I don't have a good answer for that.
That's something I struggle with.
You should have innings, minimums, and maximums.
I disagree with that.
Oh, no, I agree with that.
Now I hate Heath.
Okay.
Moving on.
From Tim, in a league that uses OPS instead of average, is Joey Gallo an elite top 30 hitter?
No average, just OPS.
Yes?
Yes.
I think he's more valuable in an on-base percentage league and an OPS league than he is an average for sure.
And yeah, once you...
Just going OPS and not even, like...
But once, but if you look at OPS, he's a...
All of a sudden, he's a four-category stud.
Joey Gallo.
Like, that's not elite.
Definitely a home run stud.
Runs in RBI.
The thing you have to keep in mind with his counting stats last year is he wasn't playing
every day.
He probably will this year.
He only had like 520 plate appearances last year.
I mean, he walks a lot.
OBP is still low because he's such a bad hitter.
But OPS.
I think top door is stretching it, but it's close.
Yeah, I think he's right around there.
All right.
This is Joey Gallo we're talking about.
Very interesting player.
We're going to go a little long today.
I want to get some more emails.
Mike and Cranberry, New Jersey.
Really? Is that the Cranberry?
I'm looking to apply the Azer Wide Receiver strategy to catch her this year.
That did not work out, by the way.
Head-to-head categories league.
That was when I tried to take two wide receivers on the same team, almost guaranteeing that at least one of them would be great.
Well, if you did it with the Vikings, I guess it would have worked.
Actually, yeah, it would have worked, but I didn't because I didn't believe in Adam Thielin.
So last year I used Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, and it worked really well.
Are there attractive catcher platoon situations like that or that one that I could target this year?
I feel like we had this discussion at some point in the offseason,
and I feel like I mentioned just drafting the Dodgers catchers as your two catchers?
Yeah, yeah.
And there's a good chance that even ends up being better than you bargain for.
If Rondahl gets traded and they both are the full-timer somewhere.
But that's kind of an expensive combo when even this year the Suzuki,
Flowers combo is going to be much cheaper.
And I don't think Flowers Suzuki's a bad one.
I don't think Suzuki's quite the power hitter he was last year,
but he makes a lot of contact, and I think Flowers is mostly legit.
So that's still a good one.
The only one I'd really consider is probably the Rockies,
just because of the, you know, Ioneta and Walters.
Like, Walters will give you some average.
Ionetta will give you some cheap pop.
Ioneta might hit, like, 270 in Coors Field.
I like that.
I don't think Milwaukee's bad
Vote in Pena
I think together make a pretty good catcher
Wait a second
What happened to Jonathan Lucreoy?
He's still a three agent
He's Scott Borsh
No Scott Bors is not his agent is he
He probably is
But to be honest he was so bad last year
I wouldn't be surprised if he's not a starter somewhere
A few more emails here
This is from Alex
Hey Mike Tom, Gypsy and Crow
80 people, can you?
What do you think?
I have no idea.
Yeah, me either.
Twelve-team Dynasty League, the best available starting pitchers are Zach Godley and Luis Castillo.
If I miss out on both, who would you pick between Denelson Lamett, Jacob Faria and Jordan Montgomery and Mike Clevenger?
LeMette, Faria, Montgomery, Clevenger.
Clevenger is the one I, in theory, ranked the highest.
There is some question about whether or not he'll have a real thing.
rotation spot, even though he was the Indian's third best pitcher last year. He was even better
than Bauer. But, you know, they also have Salazar and Tomlin. So I don't know. I don't know.
It should be Clevenger, but it may be not. So of the rest of them, I go for Ria.
Agreed. Okay. Last one from Frank.
That is Mr. Science Theater 3,000. I'm disappointed that I didn't pick up on that.
I'm sorry. I actually go to a bar where all they play is Mystery Science Theater,
3,000. You know, it sounds like you're joking, but that sounds like an awesome bar.
I am joking.
Frank in upstate New York, dear Mac, Rabbit, Thorny, and Farva.
Super troopers.
Why so much love for Freddie Freeman this year?
I feel like he's never been more than a fifth or sixth round pick before this year, which seems about right.
Now, Scott White has him ranked 15th overall.
This is ludicrous.
I mean, seriously.
What league were you drafting it last year?
I know.
He was a fifth or sixth round pick.
That's ludicrous.
He's called you a homer, Scott, for having Freeman 15th overall.
No, dude, Frank, you got to get on the word.
I will recuse myself from answering this Freeman question so that my homerism won't plague the answer.
Over the last two seasons, he has been an elite hitter.
Yeah, he's awesome.
Yeah, at this point, I don't think there's really any reason to doubt it.
He kind of...
Look at the numbers.
He struggled after coming back from his injury last year, but unless you, you're not...
you think the wrist injury, and it's not like he was bad.
No, it wasn't bad.
But if you think, struggled, you're putting a little strong.
Like, he was arguably the best.
He wasn't better than Mike Trout.
He was arguably the best hitter in baseball before the injury, and he was just a very good.
He was like Jose Abrae, you after me.
He's made a leap.
I don't, unless you think the wrist injury is going to linger, I don't think there's
any reason to doubt it.
Okay, then that's Freddie Freeman.
And that's our show for today.
We'll talk to you tomorrow on fantasy baseball today.
Thanks for listening, everybody.
For Scott, for Heath, for Chris, I'm Adam.
See ya.
