Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Players We Love; HUMIDOR!!!
Episode Date: February 14, 2018It's Valentine's Day, so let's spread the love and talk about some of our favorite players (2:24). Zack Godley and Wilson Ramos made the list, find out who else we love ... The humidor is coming to Ch...ase Field! We talk about the impact it could have (18:15), when to draft Paul Goldschmidt, if any other ARI hitters are worth taking and what this means for the SPs ... We answer important Fantasy questions about prioritizing steals (31:31), how strategies change in different formats (36:30), when to draft Ronald Acuna (43:25) and much more ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Love is in the air.
It's Valentine's Day.
Players we love today, and we hate that freaking humidor.
Don't we hate it?
Boo.
Are you kidding me?
What are you talking about?
No, we hate it.
Every stadium.
Every stadium needs a humidore.
I told you that we're going to change the baseballs.
I've seen that take on Twitter.
And, you know what?
To me, I mean, I only know about what I've read.
That's my understanding of the humidor.
I don't have this, like, vast knowledge of my own.
But, like, you don't have.
have a humidor? Putting a humidor in most stadiums would have no impact because the environmental
conditions are similar to what the humidor puts on the balls. I just wanted everybody to know that Scott
has already asked to be out of the fantasy football draft that we have this afternoon so he can write
about the humidor. This is massive news. It is massive news. He's Scott White. Massive. Anyone in this
room, and we are all in the room today. Yes, we are. I'm in Fort Lauderdale.
If anyone here was going to have a humotaur in their home, Heath is the obvious choice, right?
For alcohol?
Like for wine?
For cigar.
Oh, that's what you put in there.
Yeah, I don't drink.
I don't smoke, so I don't know.
Yeah, that's what you do with the humidor.
Sure.
Okay, so listen, we'll talk about that.
Chase Field will install a humidor.
Hopefully we'll know more about the effects in the coming days, but, you know, it could be pretty significant.
Does that mean Paul Goldschmidt's no longer the number three pick in the draft?
Yep.
Maybe.
For me, he's not.
Depends on what draft.
He's not, this is, this is, like, this is a huge deal.
And this is crushing news to me.
Teaser.
Oh, you weren't actually asking.
Come on, guys.
I was teasing the segment.
We're going to start with players we love.
If we can, we'll buy or sell.
And I kind of made it a decision yesterday.
By the way, Chris, thank you for printing out my notes and forgetting two pages.
I appreciate that.
No.
Yep.
No.
You forgot some.
No.
Oh, front and back.
We're being environmentally conscious.
That's the default printer setting.
And I always.
forget to undo it and it ruins my day um i think i think i want to start position previews tomorrow
how do we feel about that we'll catch her tomorrow sure we're doing five podcasts this week
no we won't do one friday oh okay yeah um and then come back and and do first base after our
little four day weekend so anyway let's start with players we love and uh scott go for it
well not to preempt any humidor talk but the player i love i've loved for a long time i've loved
back to last summer, but this Humidor News makes me want to put a ring on it.
I knew I loved you before I met you.
Zach Freakin' Godley.
I thought I dream you.
Yeah, Zach Godley.
All right, Zach Godley.
Last year, oh, do you remember who it was last year?
I remember who it was.
Last year, it was Mitch Hanigar.
It was Mitch Haniguer.
Always an Arizona connection.
Yeah, very good.
So Zach Godley, the story of Zach Godley is.
this top 10 in ground ball rate last year top 10 in swinging strike rate last year he's dominating
in two of the the three aspects of pitching that he has the most control over i think it's an ace profile
i think if you just look at his raw numbers last year he wasn't that far from being an ace obviously
didn't have the innings total he wasn't in the starting rotation from the start of the season
got screwed and win loss record even though he pitched for a playoff team so that that that helped
to suppress the hype for Zach Godley.
But if he just continues to do what he did last year,
I think we're talking about a fringe Cy Young candidate.
And it may not even be that fringy anymore
if the human war has the impact that a lot of the studies suggest it's going to have.
Is he the new poster child?
If he has a good year, is he the new poster child for there's no such thing as a pitching prospect?
I don't know that I agree.
I never really understood that expression.
26 years old at the time of his breakout was never a prospect.
Okay.
My early numbers are fine, but he had a 640 ERA last year.
This is not someone that two years ago anybody saw coming as even a fringe major leaker.
Okay.
But why is that unique to pitching?
Because it happens more with pitching.
Okay.
If you say so, I've heard.
We're trying to talk about love.
Chris, you need to be 80 people right now.
We need to know where Zach Godley's going.
I don't have that.
123rd overall.
He is going, Zach Godley is going before David Price and Kyle Hendrix.
What, David Price is lower than I expected.
Yeah. So the pitchers are like Sunny Gray, Zach Godley, David Price, Kyle Hendricks,
and a lot of hitters in this range.
123 overall.
All right.
Zach Godley is Scott's player.
He loves. Give me one somewhat controversial player that you take godly over.
I take godly over.
I would take godly over John Lester.
Is that controversial enough?
Masahiro Tanaka.
He's only the 31st pitcher being drafted right now, which seems insane.
Yeah, he's like 21st in my pitcher rankings.
Like Alex Wood is being taken above him, and I'm not sure that makes a ton of sense.
Would you?
ADP boy.
I love it.
Heath, you're up.
Player you love.
Scott's player he loved.
to somebody he's loved for a long, long time.
Scott's into these long relationships.
Not me.
I've got, as the great song said, hungry eyes.
So I will talk about a player that I've got a little puppy love for right now because I just realized I loved him yesterday.
And that is Wilson Ramos.
Ooh, I just did my Ramos notes this morning and I'm pretty, I'm feeling Wilson Ramos.
You, of course, probably have the same notes I do because I'm going to do an end.
Adam Azer's thing.
So do you want to go ahead and give the numbers?
No.
Not going to do an Adam Azer thing.
What, last 32 games?
Not even last 32 games?
The old 32 games split.
Yes.
Well, he only played 64, so it's half to see it.
He was awful, awful, awful.
For the first month after recovering from a very bad injury, and he's a catcher.
after that first month from July 30th to the end of the year, he hit 293 with an 808 OPS.
This is a catcher.
The one position that Chris agrees is weak in terms of fantasy value.
He hit over 300 in his last full season.
I love Wilson Ramos.
Yeah.
And Ramos was the number three catcher in fantasy in 2016.
307 batting average 22 homers in 131 games.
Yeah, you know, if he just does what he did last year in 131 games instead of 64,
he would have been the number eight catcher in points leagues.
And we expect him to be better than he was last year because he got off to such a slow start after tearing the ACL.
But it was a vision issue, right, that got fixed with him?
Because he was never nearly that good before 2016.
Did he have LASIC or something?
I believe he had LASIC.
Yeah, right.
Okay, great.
So, Zach Gottlie for Scott?
Yeah.
I'm a little worried about the way this relationship started with.
Wilson Ramos.
It's a little too Tom Cruise on the Oprah couch for me.
Yeah.
Well, it may be over in another month, but all of somebody else I love.
You would take Wilson Ramos over who?
J.T. Realmuto.
Okay.
Chris Thawers, you are up.
I totally agree, by the way.
Wow.
What's Real Muto?
I was going to wait for catcher preview, but he doesn't do anything for your fantasy team.
He just plays a lot.
He just exists.
And now he's on maybe the worst offense in baseball.
That's a big deal for a catcher.
Maybe.
He's going to...
He's going to...
He's going to play a ton.
He might be Wilson Ramos' eventual replacement in Washington.
That would help.
But the argument in favor of taking Wilson Ramos that I think is really strong is
the number 12 projected catcher is projected to be the number 291 player.
That's bad.
That is really bad.
That is just if you don't account for positions and you just account for production.
All right, Chris, you're up.
Who do you love?
So the player I love is Gary Sanchez, who I think gives you a bigger edge over the competition at that position than any other player possibly could.
The gap between him and the number two catcher in the projections is about the same as the gap between the number one first baseman and the number 14.
Let's pause for a second and bully Heath into putting Sanchez won in points over Posey.
Because he's got a one in Roto.
Yeah, I don't think there's any reason to not have Gary Sanchez, number one.
Buster Posey, I think he can bounce back a little bit in terms of the power.
He only hit, what, 14 home runs last season or 12?
This is very mild bullying.
This is like, you just come out of stronger than that.
Gary Sanchez has played, what, 200 games in the major leagues?
He's homered at nearly 40 home runs per 150 game pace.
He's one of two catchers who's even remotely.
likely to play 140 games.
I think that's probably...
I'm not sure about that anymore.
I think he will.
All right.
His bad is too valuable to take out of the lineup.
They're going to get his bad in the lineup as often as they can't.
You want some bullying?
I'm not a good bully either.
But this is the closest I can do.
Because this is Points Leagues, right?
Where he still has Posey ahead last year in Points League.
So, you know, maybe he doesn't think Sanchez is actually who he was last year.
Maybe. I don't know.
But last year, Gary Sanchez averaged 3.38 points league.
per game. Buster Posey 2.89. That, sir, what a bully, is like the difference between.
Find the most outlandish example you can. I'll talk for just a second so you can serve for it.
No, that's like the difference between Justin Turner and Ehuehanyos Juarez.
I mean, just in terms of projected 2018 production for Roto, too, the difference between Gary
Sanchez and Buster Posey is the difference between Buster Posi and Travis Darno. I love it. I love it.
I mean, we all love Sanchez.
The question is, when do you take them, you know, second round?
That's fine, but you're going to be passing up like,
if we're going to be taking Corey Seeger in the second or third round because he's a shortstop,
Gary Sanchez should be a second rounder because he's a catcher.
Like, there needs to be a, like, he might be worth a second or third round pick
just on his raw production alone if he was a first baseman.
Like, we're talking about he could be Jose a break.
I don't think so.
No.
Why not?
Because he's not going to play 155 games.
He might play 145 games, though.
I don't know why.
He played like 130 last year while missing a month.
He played 122.
And he missed a month.
But here's the problem we ran into because they got stanted,
and they have five outfielders for three spots plus a D.H.
Okay.
On the days where Gary Sanchez isn't catching,
do we really think they want Aaron Hicks bat in the lineup instead of Gary Sanchez?
They want a defense.
I really.
They could easily shift Gardner over to center.
Yeah.
I really think Gary Sanchez is going to be the primary D.H.
Gary Sanchez is awesome.
Gary Sanchez is my number one catcher in Roe.
I expect Gary Sanchez to play towards the very top of the most at the catcher position.
I'm not saying he's not going to play as much as any other catcher.
I don't think he's going to play as much as your average first baseman.
But Buster Posey has pretty much always played as much as any other catcher.
But their outfield got a lot better this offseason.
Just like the Yankees did.
The thing that I like about Posey and points, obviously, is the first.
fact, he's going to walk almost as often as he strikeout, if not more than he strikes out.
A lot of good it did for him last year. And he has a huge regression coming.
Well, there we go. There you go. But in runs and RBI. He had a terribly unlucky year in terms
of run production. Their offense was awful last year. Their offense got better. He will score and
drive in a lot more runs. Let me see if I can find the average point per game average from
2017 when, uh, okay. Yeah. I take exception to Chris, first of all, picking Gary Sanchez
as the player he loves, right? Because that's like,
We could all say, oh, I love Emma Stone.
No, but I love, but I'm saying Gary Sanchez is, I would argue he is dramatically undervalued.
You know who it is.
He's gronk.
He's out of your league.
Right, yeah.
He's gron.
He puts you so far ahead of the competition that he is the one guy.
I would say, you know, I don't really care about positions this year.
I'd say he's the one guy that is worth drafting solely because of the position he plays.
Would you take Anthony Rizzo or Gary Sanchez?
It's tough.
It probably depends on who I took with my first pick.
Because there's a chance that I took a first baseman with my first pick.
But I think Gary Sanchez is absolutely in the discussion at the end of the second round in a 12 team league.
Okay, cool.
I agree.
Last one here is for me.
My player I love is Greg Bird.
So I struggled with this.
Last year it was Gregory Polanco.
That was bad.
This year, another Greg.
Greg Bird.
I just think he's good.
what's his name? Brian Cashman said that Bird was at one point their top prospect
better than Gary Sanchez. He was the spring training superstar last year, as we recall,
and he was rocketing up draft boards, and then he got hurt at the very, very end of spring
training. He hurt his ankle. He was terrible in April. He went on the D.L. missed most of the season.
And then after he returned from injury, he had 253, but he had a 575 slugging percentage.
Eight home runs, nine walks, 20 strikeouts. Win 29 games after returning from injury.
And then in the postseason, he only batted at 244, but he walked 12 times with 17 strikeouts, three home runs.
And he was good in 2015.
So I think Greg Byrd will be better in OBP.
I think he's got an opportunity to walk.
And I think he's got a chance to hit cleanup in that lineup.
And I think because I think they'll split up the righties.
I think they go Gardner, Judge, Stanton, Bird, Sanchez, Gregorius.
I think he's got a real chance to bat clean up.
The Yankees seemed to like Greg Byrd more than any fantasy analyst does.
So, you know, I just think being in the line, like originally, you know, months ago,
I liked Justin Bore better than Greg Byrd.
Once they got Stanton and all the other stuff happened with the Marlins,
I said no, Burt ahead of him.
I think Burt's got breakout potential.
Doesn't it make it much easier to not use him against lefties with all these guys they have?
I don't think he'll sit against lefties.
He didn't last year.
So that is a bit of a concern, but he has to struggle against lefties, which he didn't.
last year.
I mean, he struggled against everyone last year.
He had the power.
And he has a 20,
he has about a 28% strikeout rate
in his major league career.
So there might be a ceiling of like
260 on his batting average.
That does concern me,
but where you get Greg Bird,
260 doesn't matter if you hit the home runs.
I don't think you get him at that much of a discount.
Well, what do you think, 80P boy?
You tell me where you get him.
He's going 152nd right now.
That's how, I think that's higher.
That's what, the 13th,
round in a 12-team league. That's a little bit early. I think I'd rather in like the
14 to 15th round. You don't love Greg Bird. The problem I have with Greg Bird is I love a lot of
guys that go around when Greg Bird is being drafted, but I'm going to go with Bird over Justin
Smoke. You know who's done it already? Who? Is Matt Olson? He's... I'd take him over Olson.
That seems ridiculous. I think, Olson seems to me like... Like Matt Olson has already done it in the
majors. So is Greg Bird. Greg Bird in 2015 hit 261 with 11 home runs in 40.
six games. Yeah, Matt Olson hit like 24 home runs and 50 something. It's just, it just, it just depends where you can get Byrd because, well, the data shows one thing. My experience has shown that people aren't that jazzed about drafting Greg Byrd. Just yesterday's draft, we did a 10-team roto draft. I took Matt Olson in round 13. I also took Greg Byrd in round 20. And he went round 13 in another 12-team roto that we did. Yeah. So, I mean, it just depends. Like, I could get excited.
about Greg Byrd if people aren't already assuming he's going to be this monster power hitter
that in between, you know, behind Judge and Stanton.
But based on current ADP, I'd rather have Kyle Schwarber at 179.
I'd probably rather have Eric Thames at 184.
No way. No way.
I'd rather have Chris Davis, the memorials version.
Who's gone undrafted in leagues that we've done.
And you're hoping Greg Bird is Chris Davis.
No, I'm not hoping that Greg Bird is Chris Davis.
Chris Davis hits $2.25.
I think Greg Bird could be better than Chris Davis.
It will be better than Chris Davis.
Greg Bird is on my bus list because of what the ADP shows and because I don't think he's worth paying that much for.
But, I mean, if we're – the idea that Greg Bird is certain things that are bad, like, we don't know what he is because he's hardly played in the major.
When he returned from the ankle injury that, like, he was clearly messed up last April and was striking out every other bat and couldn't maintain the power.
Bert surge he showed in spring training.
When he returned, August 26th, end of the year,
he had an 891 OPS during that time.
Struck out 20 times in 98 plate appearances.
Only like a 20% strikeout rate.
Yeah.
I think he's a good player.
And they like it on base skills.
You don't see it because it's batting average is kind of low.
I like Byrd and...
Kyle Schwerber did the same thing after I can go.
I like Schwerber too.
And that's the problem.
Like, there are so many hitters late that I want a piece of.
He's going 30 to 40 picks late.
Well, that's fine.
That doesn't mean Greg Bird is bad.
It just means that Kyle Schwerber could also be on this list of players that we love late in drafts.
I do want to take Kyle Schwarber for sure.
All right.
So, news and notes for you.
Chase Field.
We'll install a humidor.
Also, we want you to email us at Fantasy Baseball at cbsi.com.
Luckily, we don't have a lot of notes today, but we should spend a lot of time on this.
So, all right, what do you think?
Oh, crap.
Yeah, that was my reaction.
Why?
Why?
Because a bunch of players who we thought were good are about to not be good.
It's going to catch a lot of people off guard.
Completely false.
What do you mean is completely false?
Who did you think was going to be good that is now not going to be good?
Nobody.
AJ Pollock?
Nope.
Jake Lamb?
I think Paul Holschmidt's not going to be as good.
You didn't think Jake Lamb was going to be good.
Well, a lot of people did, Heath.
Okay, but you didn't.
Well, I know, it's not all about me.
It is.
Jake Lamb could.
It should be, Scott.
Jake Lamb could go from, Jake Lamb could be unownable after this.
Totally agree.
All right.
Let's talk about why instead of.
Well, right.
I don't know the one.
I don't know why.
I don't know why it's like Paul Goldschmidt drops a little bit.
A.J. Pollock drops a little bit.
Okay, so an article that was published last summer that I read a few weeks ago.
One guy.
The guy they asked for his expertise, I don't really remember who he was, but he said it could reduce home runs by 25 to 50%.
He was like a scientist.
He was not just a guy.
He was a fan.
He was Sean.
Seesit ticket holders.
His name works.
I'm pulling up the article.
His name is Alan Nathan.
Yes.
And he.
Two first names.
Very trust.
50% seems ludicrous. Like, I can't imagine it's going to reduce home runs by 50%.
What are your qualifications? What are your qualifications? That just seems crazy, doesn't it?
Doesn't that seem crazy? Like, would they really do it if we're going to reduce home runs?
Here's the thing to keep in mind about Chasefield. It has the seventh largest outfield in terms of area.
So what could happen is we could see a drop in home runs. That seems very likely. But we could also see kind of,
a B-minus version of course field where it starts inflating Babbitt because outfielders have to start covering so much ground, it could lead to an increase in doubles and triples to somewhat make up for the loss of the home run.
All right. Let's go around the room and give me your summary and we'll expand on it. Give me your summary of how you feel.
We're also only talking about hitters. Like, this could be great news for the pitchers. It's awesome news for the pitchers. It could be great news for the pitchers. The way I see it is bad news overall is because we all.
regarded the Diamondbacks as having a very good pitching staff.
And yeah, I mean, some of the hard contact tendencies for Robbie Ray, you know, they may end up
being not the concern that we thought they were going to be because of this, and he just
ends up being this masterful strikeout pitcher.
But I thought that was already a reasonable scenario.
The guy doing this research is somebody who had been studying the effects of the humidor on
Coors Field for close to back since 2011.
Like, guy really knows this stuff, more than any of us do, about how the humidor affects
balls.
And the reason it's so scary is, first of all, there was about a 25% decrease in home runs
at Coors Field when they installed the humidor.
They were already so high that it didn't have a huge impact on how those players,
their relative fantasy value, but definitely had an impact.
the issue is the humidity in Arizona, that desert environment, the surrounding humidity is much lower.
And the contrast of the humidity in the baseball versus the humidity in the air is going to amplify the effect.
To the point that I'm not so sure Chase Field isn't going to be the worst hitters park in baseball.
I mean, we won't exactly know how it's going to play out until it plays out.
But the guy makes a convincing case.
I trust his research.
He says a 25 to 50% decrease.
And that's just in home runs.
That's not including the decrease that's going to happen in terms of exit velocity, which is, you know, you're hitting a wet baseball.
What's that going to do?
So, like, I don't want any Diamondbacks hitters.
I think it's too dangerous.
When are you going to take Goldschmidt?
Goldschmidt's going to still be a first rounder.
He might be the one I make an exception for as everybody else is letting him drop to the back half of the first round.
And because his road numbers are so good, I mean, even if he's half of what he used to be at home,
I still think he'll be a high-end fantasy player.
But no other dime-back hitters.
I don't want them at all.
Even A.J. Pollock, maybe if I'm desperate for steals and he falls far enough, I can take Pollock for steals.
But I don't trust the hitting for him or any of the others.
So my initial reaction to this is this news might make Robbie Ray worth his current draft price,
which is the number 12 starting pitcher.
ADP boy, thank you.
Which is crazy.
He has a lot of upside, but there is a lot of downside and Robbie Rice profile as well.
And I don't think anybody's really factoring that in to his price at that point.
I would hope this drops A.J. Pollock's ADP because he was not worth where he was being taken before, which is 57th overall.
That is crazy.
If he drops 50 more spots, maybe he's worth taking.
The one thing I will say about Dr.
Alan Nathan? Nathan Allen?
Alan? Alan?
Alan Nathan, yes.
It is built on certain assumptions about what the settings of the humidor will be and what impacts will be derived as a result of that.
I believe it's like 50% humidity is the assumption that he bakes into it.
Well, that's what that's the MLB requirements.
Yeah.
Okay.
So maybe they'll maybe they'll just.
70 degrees 50% humidity.
But the, that was in the article yesterday saying it would be 50 degree humidity, 70 degrees.
Those assumptions are correct.
All right, then, yeah, that might be the impact it has.
I just, it's weird that they were allowed to not store them in those, I don't know, maybe it will have that impact.
Where are you taking Goldschmidt?
I think he's still a first rounder.
I think he.
After Harper?
I mean, you're worried about Paul Goldschmidt.
This makes him riskier.
You said off the air, you said off the air.
Well, forget, I don't want to get just to one to one.
You said off the air, you think that stolen bases will go up.
Yes, I think the model is 2016 Paul Goldschmidt, where he didn't hit for as much power,
but he stole 34 bases to make up for it.
I would expect he will run more if he doesn't hit for power, just because he'll have more stolen base opportunities.
This is a 300 hitter.
Since no one's actually answered to your question, I will take Paul Goldschmidt 8th in the first round.
You have my eighth pick, the last hitter before I would take Clayton Kirschaw.
Okay, my overall question, though, is what are your thoughts on the Humidor?
I'm more excited about it, I guess.
I think part of the problem for Scott, and part of the reason I'm excited and Scott's not,
he already had the entire Diamondback starting rotation in his top 25 pitchers.
I did seem to be an outlier in the industry on Grinky, Godly, Ray, and Corby, all four of them.
Not Taiwan Walker.
I'm actually lower than on the end.
So I was excited for the possibilities, especially.
like Grinky, I think, is somebody that you could view as like a top six starting pitcher now.
Because really the one concern I had about him was the park.
And I don't have that concern as much.
I mean, he could still have a terribly unlucky year like he did in 2016,
but he could also have a terribly lucky year like he did in 2015.
So Grinky is a top six pitcher for me.
Robbie Ray is now number 12.
I move Taiwan Walker and Patrick Corbyn up more than I mean.
move those guys up, but it was because I had them so low.
And I do think they could, like, they might go from fringy on your roster pitchers to
just number four or number three starters.
I'll just, I'll just point.
I don't think Taiwan Walker's any good.
He still don't.
I know he had a nice ERA last season, but the peripherals were mediocre.
He still doesn't have a breaking ball that is any good.
So I don't think the humidor is going to change that.
If you want just some numbers on Paul Goldsmith,
He has a career 959 OPS at home, a career 904 OPS on the road.
There have been two seasons where, at least two, where he hit more home runs at home or on the road than at home.
2015, 13 homers at home, 20 on the road.
2013, 17 home runs on the road, 13 at home.
But usually Goldsmith's been great on the road, but amazing at home, I guess.
So, yeah, he could still have a 900 OPS.
But it's also like, it's not just home road.
It's does home become, as Scott said, maybe the worst hitters park in baseball.
It could.
They could have a huge effect on everyone.
And there's another effect, and this is something I talk about all the time with Rocky's pitchers.
It's something that happened to Mike Campton the first year he was in Colorado, where if you look at his game log, he started out pretty well as a Rocky's pitcher.
But you get used to performing up to a certain standard.
And, you know, Paul Goldschmidt's not going to be able to do things at home that he used to do.
and that's going to frustrate him.
And what kind of changes is he going to make to compensate for that?
And how is that going to impact his road production?
Like it could mess him up.
Like, it could mess up any of the Diamondback setters.
I wonder why they're doing this.
Well, the reason they're doing it is because exit interviews with past pitchers
have shown them that they don't like the grip of the dry baseball.
And so they're doing it to help pitcher grip,
not necessarily what happens to the ball on impact.
Wouldn't it be cheaper to just like invest in a bunch of moisturizers?
Just a big tub of like Juergens.
Get Michael Paneda on the case.
You can help with this.
And I'm sure they have like they seem to be a data, you know, driven organ front office now.
Like I'm sure they've done their own research.
I can't help but wonder if there's, because it took a long time to implement this from when it was first announced that they were building a humidor.
I wonder if there was some kind of disagreement between ownership.
They had a really hard time.
Calibrating it.
Calibrating it.
Yeah.
Keeping it at the right humidity and the right temperature.
But still, even once they, even once that was seemingly behind it,
it took a long time to announce they were actually going to implement it this year.
So I don't know that everybody on the organization is on board with this,
but it's something that, I think ownership was set on.
It'll make for better baseball.
What this tells me is they need to get off their butts and talk.
signed Jady Martinez. This team has a two-year contention window. Go get him. Your offense is going
to stink now. Go get Jady Martinez. No park can contain him. Diamondback CEO, Derek Hall. That's the guy
who was quoted. So the CEO. Zach Granky or Justin Verlander.
Grinky. Grinky. Granky. But I always had Granky. Granky or Cindergarde.
Granky. Granky or Severino. Granky.
Grinky. All right. That's your Humidor update. There you go.
Shohei Otani will primarily work as a starting pitcher. We'll be in a six-man rotation.
Nothing we didn't know, but they talked about it yesterday. It made headlines.
And, yeah, keep in mind, six-man rotation. Not a ton of innings. This guy, Otani definitely looks like someone who will be better in a season-long roto type of format.
You know, you're just not going to get that many two-star weeks out of him.
And that's – Garrett Richards is a pitcher I've been taking late a lot, too.
We got to keep in mind six-man rotation unless somebody gets hurt.
Maybe, yeah.
Ideally, it's a six-man rotation.
I think even when somebody gets hurt, they're just going to have to find a sixth starter.
Yeah, their entire rotation are pitching through torn ligaments in their elbows.
They could probably all benefit from it.
It may not actually be the worst thing for Garrett Richards because there's a chance that keeps them healthier.
Massuremaker had a forearm injury last year.
Andrew Haney's coming back from Tommy John surgery.
This is like, from a baseball perspective, it could be good.
It might allow them to go deeper into their starts too.
It might allow them to go deeper into their starts, too.
But I think they're all fine, like, late-round flyers,
but that's where they've mostly been going, except for Otani.
Well, I have a question for you guys.
Where do you play your fantasy baseball?
What website do you use, my little valentines?
Oh, this is not a rhetorical question.
CBSSports.
Yeah, you're going to, I mean, I know the answer.
CBS Sports.
And when you sign up, what URL do you go to?
You go to CBSports.com slash FBT.
I'll answer that one for you.
Yeah, we love CBS Sports.
They employ us, but also they have great fantasy tools for you.
You can customize your leagues so well on CBS sports.
And I've played on the three major websites, and I'm biased, but I think you all would agree.
It's just better with the CBS Sports Commissioner.
So, look, you can create your own stat categories of just scoring by position.
We've got a very deep player pool.
It's great for Dynasty Leagues with that deep player pool.
You can add your own player.
You can trade draft picks up to three years in advance.
advance. So if you want to make your playoff push now or you want to play for the future,
you know, play on CBS Sports. When you do sign up, please go to CBSports.com slash FBT.
CBSports.com slash FBT.
That will show everybody just how great this podcast is. So thank you, everybody.
And let's move on. Since we're going to do position previews tomorrow, start with Catcher,
let's get some important questions out of the way.
We did a 10-team roto draft yesterday.
and steals make me lose sleep at night.
So first question, in any type of categories format, how do you prioritize steals?
I do.
You sure do.
I do.
I like steals.
You want all of them.
I think steals are good.
I like to get steals early so I can have good players that get steals.
Right.
Instead of just the guys who are only steel.
There aren't even that many just steel specialists, are there, that you're taking...
They're all speculative.
Well, they're...
Bradley Zimmer.
is the main one.
And he might do more than Steel.
Billy Hamilton,
Jose Parraza.
Hamilton's in a different class, though.
Like in a row of these,
but he's a steel specialist.
Yeah.
Who's a guy that...
Hamilton's a steel specialist.
But D. Gordon, Trey Turner,
Starling Marte,
they're much more than just steals.
Hamilton is the first true specialist
that comes off the board.
Yes, and it's very early
because he's such an extreme...
Well, there's D. Gordon also.
Dee Gordon probably goes earlier.
But he's a three category.
Yeah.
I didn't consider him.
I mean, he goes a lot higher because of the steals.
He'll hit around 300.
He'll score around 100 runs.
Hamilton's a liability almost every other.
It's interesting.
I had this revelation yesterday looking back at the way my draft went, and I didn't love my team.
I hated my draft.
I made the heaviest investment in steals that I have in one of our roto draft so far.
I drafted Dee Gordon in round four.
10 team league.
Yeah, it was a 10 team league.
So, you know, it was especially early for D. Gordon.
It was or wasn't.
It was.
I don't think so.
Oh, I thought it was late.
I almost took on the round of it.
I was considering him.
I was going to say, I was tired if Heath always taken the steel guys and wanted to try it.
See what it was like to have one of my own.
You know, Heath is so invested in his steals.
He ranks Trey Turner ahead of Mike Trout in that format.
So just, you know, he's really all about the stolen bases.
Good players.
What I noticed by doing that is it kind of, I lost my sense of direction.
in the middle to late rounds.
Like I was kind of, like, there were a lot, like, every pick I got,
there were four or five different hitters that I generally liked the same.
And I didn't have a clear idea who to take, and I found that frustrating.
Normally, with previous ones where I didn't make a heavy investment in steals,
the guy who's going to give me 15 to 20 steals would take priority over those others.
But it just wasn't necessary after taking D. Gordon.
And I don't know that it made for the least,
most efficient
draft I could have possibly had
because if I take it
if I've taken another ace instead
of D. Gordon, I would have
had a clearer advantage
at the position where I feel
like the advantage
is clearest, where there's the
biggest gap between the good and the bad
at starting pitcher. Who else do you have in your
team that gives you steals?
You didn't just stop at D. Gordon, right? No, I didn't
just stop at D. Gordon. I have Will Myers.
I have
Did I get Kevin Kiermeyer?
I have a couple of other guys like that.
All right, so sum it up.
If somebody says to you, hey, Scott, I only have 20 seconds before my bus leaves.
Yeah.
What do I do about?
He's standing at a bus stop.
What do I do about steals?
Steals are scarce, but they're scarce for everybody.
You don't need a lot of them to compete in the category.
I would rather have a bunch of 15 to 20 steel guys than invest in.
early pick in a 50 steel cut.
Can I do, I had somebody tweet something really interesting at me last week and I wanted to
point it out.
Chris Stanch, I've had, I had Hamilton on four different teams last year that finished
top three and stolen bases, but six through nine in home runs and RBI.
If I subbed out Hamilton for a 280 hitter who had 25 homers, 90 RBI, and 90 runs,
that's a really good hitter.
He would have lost on average 2.3 hitting points in the standing.
overall. That is how valuable Billy Hamilton's still on bases are.
That's amazing. That's a really interesting.
And this is based on this guy's real world results in his leagues. I have the hitting
category targets piece that's based on all CBS Sports leagues last season.
And Billy Hamilton steals on their own in 140 games were worth like seven points in the
hitting standings. That's hugely valuable.
In a 12 team league. Or give me like a number overall pick.
in a Roto League when you take Billy Hamilton?
I think he's worth looking at in the 40 to 50 range.
Okay.
We'll get into head-to-head categories and how that changes,
as opposed to season-long roto,
because I think it's a little bit different.
And roster size is different as well.
Okay, Heath, you like steals the most,
and you have no problem going early on the steals guys.
Steal them.
Steal them.
There it is.
Okay, so different formats.
then. How does your strategy change in different formats?
Points leagues are, points leagues, you don't have to look at categories.
You just look at different things like doubles, triples, plate discipline, games played, that kind of stuff.
But I guess it's a season-long roto versus head-to-head categories and versus points leagues.
One thing I'd say is that in a head-to-head categories league with daily transactions, daily lineup changes, which is very common.
I love having at least four closers.
I think I can win the saves categories,
and you don't have to say, well, who do I start every week?
You know, because if you had four –
If it were a weekly league, you would start all four guys.
You start your pitchers whenever they start.
In a daily league, you start the closers every day,
and the starting pitchers that are pitching in that you put in your lineup.
Probably makes the Angels pitchers more valuable in that format, too.
Yes, but still, if it's weekly, you don't get the two starts.
But you don't need them because you can substitute with another –
Right.
I like pitchers.
In head-to-head categories, leaves with daily transactions, daily line-up changes.
I like pitchers.
I will have one, maybe two hitters on my bench.
The rest will be pitchers.
In head-to-head categories leagues, I am very, very likely to go with the relief pitcher strategy.
Unless there are the problem.
Which is what?
Which is mostly relief pitchers.
Like occasionally if a guy, an ace falls or a really good starting pitcher falls, I might take him.
I might take one or two really high upside starting pitchers, especially later.
in the draft and then if they hit, then I'll start them on a semi-regular basis.
But for the most part, I really like the idea of just having four or five, maybe even more
relievers and winning three out of five pitching categories pretty much every week.
The only problem with that, and the few drafts that I've done so far this year,
seems like people are even more interested in paying for saves.
And saves are getting more expensive.
And I just think people should remember that the original I do,
of the relief pitcher strategy wasn't to win three out of five pitching categories it was you don't
have to spend as much on pitching your hitting is going to be awesome and then you win three out of
five pitching categories and you're dominating do you think that will change as we move closer
to the start of the season and more closer situations are people will pay less for saves
yeah i i i hope so but i don't like yesterday in our 10 team rhodo draft i think kenley jansen
went in the third round?
I was...
Ten teams.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I was considering taking Kinley and Kimbrel at the four or five turn.
Ten team leagues, you know, that's another topic we can get into.
In a ten team league, like, I'm more comfortable reaching.
Sure.
You know, for Gary Sanchez.
The replacement levels higher.
Right, exactly.
You know, you're going to get great picks even later in the draft.
But I talk about this in football a lot, how I don't want to be stuck with a strategy going
into a draft. So even though in a head-to-head categories league, I'm probably going to go in with
the idea that I'm going to go RP heavy, if you start to see saves go off the board quick,
you need to have a second plan, and it's pretty much just cheap pitching. Madison Bumgarner
went like 38, I think, yesterday. Right. He tumbled down the draft board. I think I may have taken
him. No, I took him. He was like the second to last pick of the fourth round. So head-to-head
the categories leagues, daily transactions versus weekly lineups versus weekly lineups, does a lot
change for you guys?
I mean, the composition of my roster will definitely be different.
I will have more relief pitchers.
I will have more pitchers.
My bench is probably going to be a little bit more balanced than a weekly head-to-head
categories league.
But I don't know that it changes much else.
Not really for me.
Well, it's going to raise the value of Otani because you can actually use them as a hitter
on the day season in the lineup and is not starting at pitcher.
I'm not even sure I want to.
I'm not convinced he's going to be a good hitter.
Well, that remains to be seen.
But I want the opportunity to, yeah.
He's more valuable in that format.
You would want to have versatile players on your bench to plug in on Thursdays and Mondays when certain hitters have days off.
So you don't have to carry as many bench hitters.
You don't have to take an empty spot there.
Multi-eligible guys are more valuable.
How do you buy as guys who can play three or four different positions.
That's a great point.
Multi-position eligibility is big in those types of leagues.
I think it's an underrated thing to begin with, and it's huge in NL-only and A-L-only.
Yes.
Yep.
So, you know, just keep an eye on the multi-position eligible guys.
And also platoon splits.
Like, Lonnie Chisholp probably has more valuable value in a daily league.
Well, certainly has more value in a daily league than a weekly league.
Guys who just crush lefties or righties when they're facing one of those, they might be worth starting.
Probably.
Yeah, kind of jury thinks is still out on him
Because I don't think he was a lefty masher last year
Maybe not last year, but for his career
The year before that, yeah, he was.
All right, so moving on, real quick, deepest position in fantasy is what?
First base.
Yep, no question.
Shallowest position in fantasy other than catcher.
Short stop.
Short stop.
Second's not far behind.
When do you draft?
Thirds up.
Whoa, second's not far behind.
Third's not that far behind either.
Second is interesting because I think second is incredibly deep.
I just think it's lacking high-end options.
Right, yeah.
Well, it's deep because the bar is low.
It's deep because it's deep in the middle.
It's not deep at the top.
If you're playing in a league where you only need to start one and probably draft one second baseman,
you know, you might get to the point where it just makes sense to be the last one to take a second baseman.
Exactly.
And maybe third base, too.
I'm planning on writing about this, and I'm going to look at every.
projection system, but based on just Pocoda, the number 12, second baseman is ranked 83rd
overall among hitters.
The number 12 third baseman is ranked 66.
The number 12 shortstop is 109.
However, if you take out the third baseman who are likely to be started at other positions
who are multi-eligible, then the number 12 third basement drops to 102.
What if you take out the second basement?
Yeah, you could do that with other positions as well, but third base is the one, I think
third base is the position where you're more likely to use those guys at their other position.
You're more likely to use Jose Ramirez as a second baseman. You're more likely to use
Alex Bragman as a shortstop than vice versa. So I think it makes more sense to pull them out
of the third base pool. What that exercise wouldn't reveal, though, is that I feel like the 20th
best second baseman is basically as good as the 12th best second baseman. So where's the 20th
second basement going? Yeah. And we just had an amazing sentence there where Chris Towers
said both P-U-L-L and P-O-O-L, which he pronounces exactly the same.
So that was an amazing Valentine's Day present for all of you listeners.
Next question, when do you drafts Ronald O'Cuna?
I've been thinking about this a lot lately, and man, how many players his age are good as rookies?
But when do you draft Ronald Ocuna?
I probably won't.
That's a fair point.
I keep wanting to move him up because I feel like among middle-round hitters he has some of the highest, you know,
explosion potential.
If you get what I mean there.
But, like, I equated to Chris Bryant.
I think he's going to, he's the most exciting fantasy prospect who we haven't seen
play a game in the majors yet since Chris Bryant.
And Chris Bryant, after an awesome spring, started, got pushed up to the four to six round
range.
That's where he was going.
And Okunia is nowhere close to that.
Maybe if he has a huge spring, he will too.
But the big difference between the two is that.
Bryant was, I think, 22, and Acuna's 20.
And developmentally, those are two important years.
So part of me is like, yeah, I don't know how realistic to think it is to think he's going to make the rookie splash Bryant did just because he's so young.
80P boy.
It's a different question.
There are two questions being asked.
When will you have to draft Ronald Acuna if you want him on your team?
Probably the ninth or tenth round at this point.
And that'll only go up.
I think it'll probably get to the sixth round, eventually, if it looks like he's going to be in the majors by the end of April.
He is the most important, like, his performance is this spring is what matters to me the most.
Because if he hits eight home runs this spring, then I'm not concerned about him being 20 anymore, you know?
I will.
I wouldn't just, I wouldn't just give in and say, oh, he's, he's fine.
That's a big spring.
Ronald Ocuna is probably the best power speed prospect we've seen come out of the miners in, since,
And the speed is really, I think, what changes it.
Because you are desperate for steals.
And then Acuna's on the board, you know,
might be your last chance having a great steals.
Are the Braves going to let him run around the base paths
with like a chicken with his head cut off like they did in the miners?
Because he was caught 20 times on 64 steel attempts last season.
That's a disaster.
All right, who's your favorite sleeper?
Just overall?
Yeah.
This is different from the player we love?
It can be the same guy.
So is that godly for you?
Or is he a break?
He's not a sleeper.
He's on my sleeper list.
You told me he couldn't be on my breakout list because he already broke out.
He didn't be on my sleeper list.
I'm sorry.
He doesn't qualify for anything.
He can only be a player you love.
Whatever.
He's a player who's being underdrafted.
Who's your favorite sleeper?
Who's your favorite breakout?
He's your favorite bus.
I'm going to go Austin Hayes just to have somebody different.
Okay.
And because you can get him really late.
And look at his minor league production between two stops last year.
It was virtually identical.
He's going to be the Orioles starting right fielder.
Favorite sleeper guy.
I want to draft in the last round every time I get the chance.
Randall Gritchick.
That just feels like a Blue Jays special.
He pulls the ball a lot.
He hits the crap out of the ball.
He strikes out a lot.
He's got bad plate discipline, but I think he can be a top 100 player.
Austin Hayes for Scott.
Randall Gritchick for Chris Heath, favorite sleeper?
Um, hmm.
I will go with.
I'll just stick with Cesar Hernandez.
Okay, Cesar Hernandez.
Favorite breakout?
Let's go counterclockwise, Heath?
Oh, I'll go with Jose Berrios.
Jose Barrios.
Okay, Chris.
Reese Hoskins.
Reese Hoskins.
Scott.
Suck it, Scott.
Somebody's got to take it Alex Bregman.
Sunny Gray breakout.
Interesting.
All right.
What?
Sunny Gray going to break out in a different way.
That's a weird way to spell Tommy Fam, Scott.
Tommy Fams on my sleepers list.
He already.
He broke out.
Is Alex Breggman like the consent, the industry favorite breakout?
Not for me.
Yeah, Chris is a...
He plays shortstop, so Chris hates him.
Alex Breggman would have been on my breakouts list if Heath hadn't included him on it first.
So yes, I see Breggman as a breakout candidate.
It wouldn't surprise me if he performs like a second...
It wouldn't surprise me if he outperforms Carlos Gerey.
He's just being drafted as if he already broke out.
And that's my only issue with him.
Maybe he did. I really like it to July 4th off.
Yeah, he may have.
I really like him.
He's a patriot.
I just...
Like, the idea that he might be better in Congress Correy, I think is ridiculous.
Scott, Biggest bust.
Big as bust.
Man.
I had such a great answer for this.
I mean, it's got Jake Lamb.
Yeah, I was going to say Robbie Reg.
Jake Lamb can't be a bust.
No, he is.
If he sits against lefties, then he's probably not worth drafting.
Yeah.
I don't, yeah, I think he's probably going to be drafted in the 15th round.
I took him like the 18th round yesterday.
His 80P, well, his consensus ranking is higher than that.
80P boy, Jake Lamb?
I don't have third base open.
I reject the idea that a 15th rounder can't be a bust.
Agreed.
There are great players going there.
You don't want to take a bad one.
Get Greg Byrd there.
And, you know, you look at it in an L-L-only context.
He's being drafted as a top 100 player right now.
Oh, Jake Lamb, bust, bust, bust.
All right.
Chris?
Favorite biggest bust?
I'll just make the entire state of Minnesota mad at me.
Miguel Sinoe and Byron Buxent at their current price.
Which is?
89th overall for Miguel Sinoe and 56th for Byron Buxton.
Now that is drafting somebody as if he broke out.
And on the surface, he hit 300 after the All-Star break with like nine home runs
and 11 stolen bases.
If he does that next season, he will absolutely be worth that draft price, maybe more.
He had a 380 Babbitt.
He still struck out 27% of the time.
I think Byron Bucon is being over.
He might have a 360 career badmabbit.
But I will say Eric Cosmer.
Eric Cosmer.
All right.
The free agent, Eric Cosmer.
Okay, let's finish with some stuff from the listeners.
Start with buy or sell from Ryan.
Buy or sell.
Jacob Ferreia will be the best pitcher not named Chris Archer this season.
In Florida.
In Florida.
Chris Archer will be pitching in Milwaukee soon.
So, you know.
He could still be the best pitcher not named Chris Archer pitching in Florida.
Yeah.
Max Scherzer will probably make two or three starts in Florida.
No.
Brett Honeywell will be my choice for this.
So, so.
I will say,
I don't know that he'll be the best all season,
but he will have the best end of season's debts.
Because Honeywell will get held back.
About Snell?
Well, yeah.
Kind of like Snell.
Like, yeah.
I mean, if Snell doesn't break out, then I buy it.
I have Faria ranked ahead, so I'm going to buy it.
But they're very close in my rankings.
All right.
This is from Aiden.
Reese Hoskins is a top 10 hitter this year.
Buy or sell.
Sell.
Sell, but if you gave me a good price on it, I might buy it.
She's super talented ball data.
Yeah, I'll sell.
His batted ball data is elite.
Here's one with an auto-correct from Caleb.
Garrett Cole will be the best pitcher on the Astros on a per game basis, but or sell?
I sell it.
I'm a big Justin Verlander guy, and, you know, Dallas Keikles is pretty good, too.
It wouldn't surprise me if this actually did happen.
I do have Cole on my breakout's list, and, you know, it's just assuming a lot to predict it's going to happen.
Sal, Lance McCullors will be the best pitcher on the Astros on a per game basis.
That was that good.
Dallas Keiko will be.
Yeah, it's...
Sell.
Okay, sell.
I'd like to buy it.
From J.K. Camp, Luis Castillo finishes as a top 20 starting pitcher by her.
Well, I don't rank him that way, but it's the most feasible of these, I think.
If he gets more than 180 innings, I could absolutely see that.
I'll say buy just because I want to buy.
I'm going to sell it, but I wish you wouldn't have skipped the one that I could have bought.
Okay, you'll let you do that one last.
Thanks.
This is something I had forgotten about Castillo.
We talked about it a lot while it was happening.
His first seven starts, he faced Washington twice, Arizona twice,
the Yankees, Milwaukee, and at Colorado.
Milwaukee was the only team that was outside the top eight and runs scored.
I think the Marlins were in there, too, in that first, like, stretch.
Not in the first seven starts.
And then he did okay.
He had a 405 ERA.
And he was really, maybe jittery at the beginning.
He was walking a lot of guys.
But last eight starts, Castillo had a 237 ERA, 15 walks, 53 strikeouts, in 49 and a third.
Like, I was like, I'm very excited about Castillo.
I got to get some.
His best skill in the minors, certainly, you know, the last stretch before he got called up was not walking hitters.
So, yeah, I think there was some nerves at play there.
And even though he wasn't doing the thing he does best as well as he does it, he was still pitching well against very good lineups.
He might have the best change up in the majors.
That's the thing that's really interesting about him is coming up, the scanning reports were always that the change up was still developing and that the fastball and slider were the better pitches.
Last year his change-up was unhittable.
Yeah.
If the slider catches up a little bit.
We're taking Castillo ahead of like Snell and Faria?
Yes.
Oh, absolutely.
Okay.
So, what was it, Heath?
Wilson Ramos finishes the year as a top five catcher in points, I'll buy it.
And I will also say that the Evan Gattis bandwagon, one of the bolts popped out from underneath the axle.
It's starting to creak a little bit.
Why would happen?
I'm not jumping off.
I'm still trying to repair it, but I could be...
The Astros are going to give Kyle Tucker,
no, Derek Fisher, a chance to win the left field job,
and it sounds like they want him to win it.
So that would hurt his D.H.
That would hurt his D.H.
And maybe Yuley.
Okay. All right.
Well, let's finish the show with some emails at fantasy baseball.
Also, rediside.com.
There's a lot of guys that could have.
They have a lot of guys.
We have to have a discussion fairly soon about the teams that have too many guys.
Colorado, Milwaukee, and Houston at the top of that list.
Just have too many guys.
All right.
We'll get to it about three weeks because we have position previews.
Reggie from Charlotte, one of our most dedicated listeners.
We have six new managers, and my question is about their impact on their team's speed game or lack thereof.
So basically, like, do we know if any of these managers are going to be run, run, run, or stop, stop?
I don't think we have any idea.
Yeah.
It's an interesting thought.
It's a great question.
And I would like to find out.
And somebody should ask them.
Yeah.
I would not be surprised if you could do some Googling.
I will try to do that through the spring.
There will be reporters that will ask them questions about these types of things.
And maybe we can get some indication.
It's just, it's a hard question because even like the Diamondbacks last season in the first half,
I think they stole like twice as many bases almost as they stole in the second half.
So it's just sometimes that stuff just changes.
on a whim. If Google were broken,
what search engine would you use?
Ask Jeeves.
I'd probably just use... I'd use Bing, I guess.
Alta Vista. But I don't know.
Excite.
I don't know. Maybe I'd just ask Siri.
I would probably just use the search bar
at the top of CBS Sports.
Just hope that got me in the right place.
Well, not if you're asking
anything other than about athletes.
Ian from New Hampshire.
Dear Homer, Ozzie, and the
straw. Oh, that's got to be from Simpsons, right?
Yeah, talking softball. They are real players, but that's what they're referred to in the song, Talking Softball that plays at the end of the episode.
Oh, is that what they say? Homer at the bat and the straw.
Where is the Yoan Moncada chatter? I haven't been to Keeper League, and I'm excited for him this season, yet I do not hear much buzz about him around the industry. Should I be worried about Yoan Moncada?
The Moncada chatter is in my breakouts column, where he resides.
Is it crazy to think he'll be better? No, it's not crazy.
You think he'll be better than Acuna this year?
Munkata.
I think there's a 40% chance.
There's definitely a chance.
I might even say 55% chance.
I'm giving Acuna the better chance.
We talked about Munkata on the most recent podcast, right?
We talked a lot.
I think it was two days ago.
I feel like we've talked a lot about Munkata, so maybe.
He struck out a lot since getting to double A, and that's the big concern for me
is he's become like a 28% strikeout right guy in double A, AAA, and then the major.
We can live with 27 to 28% in today's offensive.
environment.
Yeah, but it puts a, it still puts a ceiling on your batting average.
Like, he may never hit better than 250 with that.
And Scott's like, where'd him steal that?
You're really big on these ceilings with 22 and 23-year-old guys.
No, it's if he strikes out at 28% of the time.
I understand.
If he does not improve in his career, his ceiling has been established.
What was Aaron Judge's strike out rate last year?
Like 29%.
So if Moncada hits 52 home runs and has a 360 babup, he could hit two.
His ceiling would be higher.
And Judge is also 25 last year.
Right, yes.
If he improves.
But I said if he strikes out a 28%.
I don't know why you're back.
Okay.
Judge is with 31%.
It wasn't 29.
He's 80P boy.
He's not strikeout rate boy.
So I couldn't expect him to know that.
All right.
Andrew from North Carolina,
I can keep one of the following three players in a head-to-head categories
league OPS and losses are extra categories.
Keep one.
Abraeu, Hoskins.
or Darvish?
No penalty?
Nope.
I think it's got to be a Brayu.
Yeah.
I agree.
Okay.
Yeah.
Unless it's like for the next three years, then I'd go Hoskins.
Yeah.
I agree with that also.
It's weird.
Kind of feeling Darvish.
It's a really hard thing.
I'm kind of, yeah.
You're kind of feeling Darvish?
Well, I'm just thinking if you're going to keep one player,
You don't know the answer
So yeah I guess I just say Brayu
But everybody says Brayev is Reese
Oh and okay
Well Bray is the answer I think
Probably
Because nobody would have a problem with the Brayu
Chris says
Not Chris Towers
Chris says
I believe my auction league settings
7 by 7 head head categories
Favor power over speed
I'm looking to put together a max power
lineup and completely punt steals an average
Who would you target in that scenario
Matt Olson, Matt Chapman,
Reese Hoskins,
Joey Gallo.
Aaron Judge.
Chris Davis.
Both of the Chris Davis.
Both Chris Davis is a great pick there.
Gettis.
Yeah.
Even McCann would be a bad.
Gary Sanchez.
Yeah.
But McCann would be a good second catcher.
Yeah.
I mean, if you wait on catcher, you take him like 10th or 12th at the position.
Yeah.
I think it's like Zunino.
I think it's...
Kyle Schwarber with a late pick.
I think it's a risky strategy.
Yeah.
I don't know.
I don't know what the two extra category.
Punting average.
If you draft all the guys we just told you to draft,
you're going to hit 240 as a team.
Yeah.
All right.
And finally,
from Baker in Sycamore, Illinois.
Dear moderately clever,
yet exhaustingly pretentious trio or quartet of names.
Love it.
I have the third pick in a 10-team league.
And where is it, Chris?
Double-sided.
Okay.
Five-by-five roto.
Trout now Tuve went.
one and two. It's a slow draft. It's already happening. I almost pulled the trigger on Goldschmidt
when I threw caution to the wind, and I pick Turner. And now I'm having buyer's remorse. Can someone
make me feel better about Turner over Goldschmidt? There's a humidor. Yeah. I could make
you feel better about it. I've got my number two player. He's going to hit over 300. He's going to
steal 60 bases. He might hit 20 home runs and score 120 runs. Okay. Let me answer you this. If
Trey Turner hits over 300, 20 homers, 18 homers, 60 steals, 105 runs. We'll
he be better than Mike Trout? If I guarantee
you those numbers, do you take him ahead of Mike Trout?
Well, if he does that, he's going to have more than
105 runs. You have to, you probably need to guarantee
me Mike Trout's numbers, too. No, I'm not. I'm saying you know what to expect
for Trout? So you're saying, will Mike Trout be better than
300, 105, 60 steals, and 20
homers? I can kind of answer this question.
Pocoda, I have a Pocoda spreadsheet with
his value, with every player's
projections. He's
project for 103 runs, 19 homers, 68 RBI,
51 stolen bases, and a 290 average.
And he's still well short of Mike Trout's projection,
which is not really that outlandish.
But he's saying if you give him 10 more steals and batting average.
I mean, Trout's going to be better.
Okay, there you go.
That's it for today's show.
Catcher preview tomorrow.
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We'll talk to Thursday.
