Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Mailbag!

Episode Date: February 16, 2018

We've got plenty of your questions to get to including if you should use a bench spot on a C in a daily categories league (6:55), when Josh Donaldson should be drafted (12:32), Justin Upton's outlook (15:33) and how the humidor could affect the Royal Rumble in 2019! ... All the latest news from around MLB including if Jeurys Familia will be undervalued (23:25) ... Should Fantasy owners be concerned about Cody Bellinger (28:50)? Is this the year for Nomar Mazara (39:00)? How do SP rankings change in keeper leagues (43:00)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Friday afternoon, it's the fantasy baseball today combo you've all been waiting for. It's not Kreef, it's not scam, it's Kratum. Yeah, that's right. That's right. Kram or Kratum? Turn off the podcast now. It's the Chris Tower show. Oh, it's the Chris Tower show.

How about that? He's peacocking already. He's just strutting his stuff. Welcome to the show, everybody. Send us your e-mails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, and you have been sending your e-mail. emails in large number. A lot. It feels like we're getting a lot of emails.

We really are getting a ton of emails, which is great. Now we can't read all of them, but that's why we're doing a mailbag show today. Plus, we actually have a good amount of news from around baseball. Chris, we're going to start with some emails, then some news, then some more emails. But first, you were really upset. I'm so sorry that you didn't get to be on the catcher preview. I really am sorry. Well, so here's the thing about being on the catcher preview is I listen to it.

Yeah, how'd we do? B minus. And you guys spent about an hour talking about catchers, and it's really kind of overkill. There's only like three catchers worth talking about, and everyone else, kind of stinky. Well, there are more than three teams in fantasy baseball leagues. They need to know their catchers. Yeah, yeah, I guess. I mean, I'm actually hoping.

My official position on the position is that I really want to be one of the first three teams drafted. because I want to, I want Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Nolan Arnado, one of those elite guys. Nolan Aradado is now number three for you. I'm not sure who the, you know, it could be Bryce Harper. It could be, because I want one of the first two picks, so I don't have to sweat. I kind of want number two. I want number one. I want number one, yeah.

But why I want one of those top three picks is that pretty much guarantees that I'm going to draft Gary Sanchez. Because I'm either going to take him with one of the last picks of round two. Or I might push it if Anthony Rizzo's still there or Freddie Freeman. I might try to push it, get Gary Sanchez back around on that turn. But I want Gary Sanchez on my team. He gives you such a gigantic. I finally wrote my don't worry about positional scarcity piece yesterday. And there's some good charts in there that show just how wide the difference is.

Last year, Gary Sanchez finished 56th in Roto leagues. the number two catcher finished 116th. So basically the number two catcher without making a positional adjustment was about as good as the number 24 first baseman. Yeah, I mean... Gary Sanchez is the only catcher who might hit like a first basement. Probably, yeah, definitely.

And so... He's amazing. He's a... He's a... I love the gronk comparison. I think there's a chance... Which I came up with. And you have to start in Roto leagues.

It's like if you... You had to start two tight ends. Yeah, but Scott had an interesting take on that, and I kind of agree with him. Sanchez is more valuable in a one-catcher league than a two-catcher league. Sanchez is more valuable. Any great player is more valuable in a shallower league. I think that was the point of it. The more hitter spots you have, the less value one particular player has, regardless of which position he plays.

Yeah, but the, really the seven through everyone else at catcher, those guys barely deserve to start. It doesn't matter. Everybody's going to have one of them. Right, and you're going to have Gary Sanchez. So, you know, if the average, I looked it up the other day. It was based on Pocoda projections just because that's what I had open at the time. Sorry. I'm kind of interested in drafting both Gary Sanchez and Buster Post.

There you. That's what I was trying to get to here. You have this idea. Their projections for baseball perspective's Pocoda system is a 280 batting average, 59 home runs, like 150 RBI, 170 runs. Actually, like, 10 stolen bases because Buster Posi runs now. I don't think we've talked about that enough, but he's got like 12 stolen bases over the last two seasons,

which is not nothing. And every single other catcher from 3 to 24 is projected on average to hit 250 with 15 home runs and 56 RBI. It's just like, those guys stink. Except Wilson Contreras is actually going ahead. of Buster Posey. Yeah, and you know what? That's fine.

You're going to invest that much. You don't even like Buster Pouser Pousy that much. You're going to invest that much in a 31-year-old catcher who's coming off a 12-home or season. I'm not saying I necessarily will. Although he's not going that high either. He's going to 5-6 turn. 60-third, yeah. So.

60-second, whatever it was. The ability to put that on your team and not have catcher hurt you like it will for literally every other team, that's a big boost. I tried that once, you know. I tried that in a two-catcher league. three seasons ago. And it was Russell Martin and maybe Salvador Perez. It was something like that.

It wasn't the two best, but it was two. I had the best catcher tandem. And I didn't win. And one of them, I think it was Martin had a bad year. And there's never any guarantee. No, I don't think I'd do it. There's no guarantee that Gary Sanchez is awesome. But I think he's the only person at catcher who could be,

without any positional adjustment, he could be a top 10 hitter. Well, that brings us to our first email from Peter in New Brunswick. he's at Rutgers University. The rumbling around Yankee Spring training is Gary Sanchez lost 20 pounds to become more nimble behind the plate. Is there any worry that this could affect his power and does it change the way you see Sanchez at all? I don't put much stock at all into any training camp. He's in the best shape. No, but it's true.

No, that's fine. He did lose the weight because he was so bad defensively last year. I don't doubt that. I just, we don't know what the impact of that will be. We've seen guys lose weight and play better. We've seen guys gain weight and play better. I don't think there's anything to it. He's so good that I'm not that worried about it.

This is an email from Josh. Dear Gilberto, Miguel, Paco, and Cheppe. I have no idea. Well, you need to. Start watching Narcos because it's the best. Yeah, I don't want some. It's the best. 12-team Roto League, one catcher.

Five-by-five. I think this is our last catcher question. We'll put catcher to bed. Not only did we spend too much time yesterday talking about catcher, we're spending seven minutes today talking about catchers. That's a good discussion. Yeah. So Josh wants to know, no one in my league in a daily league employs the strategy of using a bench spot for a backup catcher who's on the same team as their primary catcher to maximize their counting stats.

Last year, I had J.T. Reamuto as my primary catcher, I finished third in my league. If I would have kept A.J. Ellis on my bench and played him when Rayamuto sat, I could have finished second in my league. the top three places were very close. If I go this route in 2018, I'll obviously want to go with a better tandem like Barnes and Grandal, if possible, but I wanted to get your take on this idea in daily leagues, depending on bench spots available.

So it's basically rostering two catchers from the same team, and whenever you have an alt-when you know Rayamuto's sitting today, you put the other guy in. The problem is most backup catchers are terrible. But he could have moved up a spot. Yeah.

Well, here's the thing. This is actually very simple. The last five words of this email are the most important thing, depending on bench spots available. If you've got deep rosters, then I guess do it. But you don't have to do it. I mean, you're not going to get that much of an improvement. And you'd rather have a pitcher on your bench or a better hitter at another position.

It's, yeah, because that hitter is going to have much more impact than the backup catcher that you roster. And it just, I tend to look at bench spots also mostly as a place to staff. upside. And that's not going to happen with Tony Wolters. It's a little different in a daily league, though, because the bench bots matter more. But, yeah, I mean, I've said it a lot. Those daily leagues, head-to categories. This is 12-team Roto.

But it's daily, I guess it doesn't matter. I do like having more pitchers. But that might be different in season-long Roto compared to head-to-head categories. It's an interesting conversation. If you're going to talk about streaming hitters in theory should have. have a bigger impact because there are more places, you know, streaming starting pitchers, half of the categories that the starting pitcher typically impacts, they can hurt you in. Yeah, but if you do it late in the week, you kind of know what you need.

Sure. And streaming hitters, you just don't have to do it because most of them play six or seven games a week. Yeah, but with catcher, that's not the case. No. And there's only one rate stat. So it's a little, there's a little less downside to stream. streaming hitters, even though there's also less opportunities. All right, this is from Darren and Illinois.

Can't believe I haven't heard this yet. I don't know. I don't think I could sing this. This is fantastic. I really, I really like. It's not the appropriate pronunciation of his name as far as I know, but he's so hi. Hi, O'Tani.

He's so lovely. That's great. I am extremely here for Tal Bachman references. Yep, that's good. Do you have serious XM? No. Channel 17. Oh, I've got some good 90s playlists that I put on on the long road trip.

But it's pop rock. It's called Pop Rocks. Okay. And it's just like they stole my iPod and made a channel. They played today, the last song I heard before I got to the office. I'm going to call it the most underrated song in the 90s, Chris. Found out about you by the Jim Blossoms. I will absolutely stand for the Jim Blossoms.

They're awesome. Follow you down. Hey, Jealousy is one of the greatest songs ever. I, like, found out about you better than Hey, Jealous. That, uh, that, that first album that all those songs are on, I can't remember what it's called. That is a great album. It is terrific. Allison Road.

And, uh, I don't know, I don't know which ones are on that album. But then you have, uh, till I hear it from you from, uh, from Empire Records, right? From the Empire Records soundtrack. There have been a lot of Empire Records references in my life recently. Why wouldn't you reference Empire Records? And, uh, people are aged down 30 years old? I lost a trivia a couple weeks ago because I didn't know who, uh, what's his name? Yeah.

Day? Yeah. Well, have you seen the movie? Yes. Oh, yeah, it's awesome. Okay, Miles has an email. Oh, this is for you specifically, Chris. Yeah.

The other day on your show, you guys referenced something along the lines of, to finish sixth and ERA, you needed this ERA. First in the category was this. Where do you find those numbers? Is that publicly available? Yeah, it's not typically publicly available, but I put together an article. Look for it on CBSports.com. I would say Google.

hitting category and pitching category targets CBS Sports and you'll find it. I put it together for 12 teams CBS Sports leagues last year. Okay. And you told what the average was, what you needed to finish in the middle of the pack, at the top front of the pack. Really cool stuff. So great story there. And it's, you know, CBSports.com slash fantasy.

Then you click on baseball. If you scroll down, you can see all of our stories. You can click more stories. You can read the terrible podcast. posts that I write. I'm just a dreadful writer. I think you're good. You don't need to because you're already listening to them, but yeah.

Okay, next email is from Steve in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Hey, Larry, Gary, Jerry, and Terry. The different names for the Gurgich character on Parks and Rec. I have no idea. You've never watched Parks and Rec? I did, but I've never, I don't know the Gurgich character. The, like, the big fat guy that everybody makes fun of but secretly loves, He's married to what's her name?

Yeah, I haven't seen Parts of the Rican a while. He's kind of like Scully on Brooklyn 9-9, right? Yeah, which I've recently falling in love with. Not Scully, this show. I was wondering if you guys could talk a bit about Joey Votto and Josh Donaldson and why they're ranked where they are. I play in a 5-by-5 Roto League with OBP instead of average. I like both of them, especially Votto, at much higher spots

than where you guys have them ranked. And in OBP League, Joey Votto is probably a top six. six or seven pick. I didn't know that we were low on Joey Votto. Maybe Donaldson I could say. I think Joey Votto is going in like the middle of the second in both Heath and Scott's rankings. And it's just he's not something that we,

someone that we ever talk about because you know Joey Votto. He has him second in points. Scott has him fourth. In Roto, he has Joey Vato second and Scott has in third. And just, you know, you're supposed to get worse after you turn 30 and it looked like he was.

He had that down year right when he turned 30. the three years since then. He is hitting 320. He's averaging 31 homers, 92 RBI, 101 runs, and even eight stolen bases. He's incredible. Yeah, he's very consistent and nothing to not like about Votto, just maybe that he plays the deepest position. Donaldson's more interesting because on a per game, I mean, the guy was like MVP caliber

last year. It was incredible. And he is one specifically that I struggle with with Gary Sanchez. because, you know, I'm usually looking at Sanchez in the third round, but, you know, Donaldson versus Sanchez is a very tough call for me. Yeah, the thing that I come to with that is they kind of had the same season. Like, they played, Donaldson played a little bit fewer games, but right around the same.

Their counting stats were basically the same. But Donaldson plays third base and Gary Sanchez plays catcher. So that's where... What were their slugging percentages? 559 for Donaldson on a 270 average, and Gary Sanchez had to have been close because he had 34 homers. 531, so not quite as good, but not that far off. Yeah, and certainly you have to remember that two years ago,

you're right there? Yeah, I'm good. Okay, two years ago, Josh Donaldson dealt with a couple of calf injuries, but I don't think he missed any time. You just played through them. And then last year, he had another calf injury, and he did miss time. He was not very good until about mid-July, late July,

and I very stupidly on the podcast said he looked like someone whose skills were deteriorating. And then he hit like 24 home runs in the final 50 games. So I'm cool with Donaldson like around anytime 24-ish or later. Yeah. How about you? I think so. I mean, there's some risk there, and that's why he's going lower. But he's one of the few guys who I think has top three potential.

I think Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson could both win AL MVP this year. Sure. All right. Next email is from Matt from Duncansville, Pennsylvania. Hey, Chandler, Ross, and Joey. That would be friends. Also, Ross, you notice how many times he goes, huh? Yeah, it's all he does go. It's disgusting. It's disgusting. I'm curious on your thoughts on Justin Upton this year and the future. I'm in the middle of a dynasty startup league, head-to-head points. What round would you take Justin Upton in? in a dynasty league, and what about in redraft? Justin Upton is, what, 32? He is, he just turned 30. Oh, okay. Justin Upton has been playing in the majors for about 14 years. Top six outfielder last year.

Very good, but in 2016, he was 29th in points and 20th in Roto. But I'm pretty sure his final two months in 2016 were crazy good. Were they? I'd have to check, but I remember that being the case. And I think that kind of tells the Justin Upton story, right? Is that he's just hard to trust. But when he's on, he crushes the ball. So that was what was weird about Upton last year.

He did finish 6th and points, 5th in Roto, with a 273 batting average, 35 home runs, 109 RBIs, 100 runs, 14 steals, one walk to every two strikeouts, basically. Not quite that good. four doubles, which was great in 152 games. With the Angels, he hit six home runs in 16 games at Angel Stadium. He did bad 245, but, you know, the park, he played in a bad park, whether it was Detroit

or Anaheim. Yeah. Angel Stadium. So, anyway, what I was saying was every year, like, it doesn't surprise me in 2016 if this final two months were great, because that's what Justin Upton does. He had a 670 OPS in the first half and a 9-16 in the second half. He's basically the streakiest hitter in baseball. I don't even think that's a stretch. at least the streakiest like, you know, everyday veteran player.

But last year, Justin Upton was not streaky. He was consistently good. I don't know what to make of it. I mean, it seems like he can't do it again. 44 doubles, 109 RBIs, 100 runs. On the other hand, he hits the crap out of the ball. And that's a valuable skill. He's going to go through rough stretches, I'm sure.

But he hits a lot of fly balls. He hits a lot of line drives. He hits the ball hard. He's... What do you got from the ADP boy? You got to, you just got to ride it, I think, with him. I think he's going in the fifth or sixth round range. I'm cool with that.

Yeah, I think that's fine as like your number two, maybe number three outfielder if you... You got to really love outfielders to take them. He's going end of fourth, so that's a little higher. Oh, nice. But same range as Marcelo Zuna, Reese Hoskins, and Nelson Cruz. Well, if Nassau Cruz were outfield eligible Wouldn't even be a consideration for me

Considering he's only DH eligible I guess there's a consideration I just don't trust Upton He's been so streaky in his career So is Marcel Ozuna The upside's not that much higher I could argue that for the last 1.5 seasons that Ozuna has been healthy

He's been an elite hitter Yeah The second half of 2016 he wasn't healthy And he played horribly But both of them have had One and a half good seasons in the last two Where do you draft Upton in seasonal leagues? And what about in Dynasty leagues?

I think probably I'd want to take him in the fifth round. I would guess even though the ADP is end of fourth, he'll probably go the fifth round more often than not, especially as other guys that are a little trendier, start moving up ahead of him. As for Dynasty, you probably discount him a few rounds, but round eight seems fine. He's not as old as you think.

Yeah, right? I was too old. And so we're talking about 12-team leagues. That's about 50th overall. Okay. Okay. What we got next? We got Patrick.

Every year I read baseball prospectus. I find it valuable for fantasy purposes as well. I'm curious to know if you guys read baseball prospectus also, if not any other annual baseball guides. Yeah. I cite them all the time. I think those guys, you know, I don't want to tell you to read them instead of us. They've got good fantasy writers as well. Fan graphs has great stuff.

They're always, you know, they're all, you have to read those guys. You have to read us as well, but they're always going to find interesting tidbits. You know, Colin Moran changed his swing. That was something that I read on fan graphs. That might make Colin Moran a little bit of a better breakout candidate than we give him credit for. Maybe that explains the breakout at AAA last season after he couldn't hit for power his whole minor league career. Look, I would love it if everybody just read nothing but CBS sports. But if you want to win, you got to read everything that's out there as much as you possibly can.

And yeah, I try to consume as much interesting smart baseball coverage as I can. What do you think about pro football focus ranking or grading Mitchell Chubisky ahead of Sean Watson? I don't agree. But that's a valuable resource for football. Well, too, it's just, I think their stats are more valuable for fantasy purposes. Than their grades. All right. And Luke from Chicago says, Dear Shane, Vince, and Stephanie.

Those probably are McMahon's. With the humidor insulation coming, what sort of effects do you see it having on the 2019 Royal Rumble taking place at Chase Field? So I have two thoughts. Okay. First, it's obviously it's going to hurt the high flyers. They're just not going to be a... Sorry. Ray Mysterio, I think he's still out there.

Okay. And I'm going to be very disappointed if somebody does not get power bombed into the swimming pool at Chase Field. Oh, yeah, that's a good call. What was the game I used to play all the time? I don't even remember the system. Back in high school, we were in high school. ECW, like WWF versus ECW or something like that? I have very fond memories of the N-64 one.

Do you remember? That's what it was. Yeah. That was like, I think it was ECW or no, NWO versus WVE or something like that. I think it was, all right, I'm going to, you Google, I think you should Google that. But that's really an interesting point. Didn't think about that with Chase Field and how it will affect the World Rumble. Thank you for bringing that up.

So, look, we have. WCWNWO Revenge. That's what it was? Yeah. All right. We have spring training right around the corner. So it's time to start signing up for a fantasy baseball. Please do it at CBSports.com slash FBT.

CBSports.com slash FBT. Get your league started. It's great for Dynasty Leagues. You can swap up to three years of future draft picks. You can add your own players. It's got a very deep player pool on CBSSports.com. And it's great for seasonal leagues, too. You can customize your stat categories.

You can play head-to-head points. You can play roto. You can play head-to-head categories. I just think it's a very clean look. You know what I like is the free agency when you're looking for projections? You can sort by week. you can sort rest of season. Next 14 days, 21 days.

And you can look at who the best players have been over the last seven days, over the last 14. Oh, actually, my favorite. You can search for Adam's birthday. You can do a customized stat search. Or you can say, like, D.D. Gregorius, he came back on April 30th or something like that. You could have done a spreadsheet, very simple to do, the top short stops from his first game And I think he might have been top five. Yep.

You know, so it's easy to see that. It's just great. I think it's really useful stuff. We have really smart people working on it, always getting better, with advanced stats, all that stuff. CBSports.com slash FBT. CBSports.com slash FBT. All right.

News and notes. Dave Island, the Mets pitching coach, says J. Rees Familia will probably get the majority of saves. Makes sense. Yeah, Familia, look, he missed time last year, but he was a top three closer. in 2015 and 2016. Top three in points, top five in Roto.

Somewhat of a high whip guy because he's got control issues. But this was a lights out closer and an elite player at the position until last year. Wasn't even that bad last year. Yeah, and he had surgery on his shoulder last season, and that is probably weighing on people's minds. But it wasn't like he had thoracic outlet or Tommy John. He had a blood clot in his shoulder, and, you know, assuming that they got it taken care of

and that they can manage it moving forward, you know, I'm not sure that there are going to be all that many lingering effects of it. Familia, look, he only pitched 24 and two-thirds. So when you pitch that few innings, you give up five or six runs over two appearances, it's going to make a big difference on your ERA. So the two appearances that you need to look at for Familia,

the last one before he went on the DL, the first one when he came off the DL, They were both terrible. The most part, he was okay. He just has to get, you know, he can't walk five and a half batters per nine. He can walk three and a half batters per nine and get away with it. And four of his 15 walks also came in those two outings. So I think he's probably going to be good value.

I think so. Until people catch on. Avi Garcia won his arbitration case. This is somebody that we don't buy from last year. No. No, he wrote about him in his regression alerts column from earlier in this week as someone who is, he's got a fall coming. Avi Seil Garcia.

Obisail Garcia. I just call him Avi because I can't pronounce his name. Charlie Blackman might be moved out of the leadoff spot. I hate it. Yeah? I actually think it's not enough to move him out of the first round, but I think Charlie Blackman was someone who was absolutely worth considering with the number three pick if you had it.

Why wouldn't he be now? He gives you average. It gives you steals. It gives you power. Some steals. It's not so much, like, the, I think you probably just project a shift in runs. NRBI. He's probably still going to be batting in front of Nolan Aronado. That's a good place to be. The biggest difference for me is arguably his biggest strength

hitting lead off on that roster is he's just almost guaranteed to lead the majors in plate appearances. When you look at the Colorado Rockies last season, the drop in plate appearances from the number one hitter to the number three hitter is about 50. Now that's, you know, it's about seven. Like you should just assume a seven percent reduction in his counting stats, when you're talking about the narrow differences between the guys at the top of the draft, that's not insignificant. Goldschmidt or Blackman? Blackman still.

Okay. Harper or Blackman? Blackman still. Betts? That's where I think it gets interesting because Betts is going to be another person who just racks up counting stats. Yeah, I think I might go bets now. It's hard. I mean, the batting average is so good.

324 and 331 each of the last two seasons for Blackman. He's another guy that the juiced ball appears to have made a, the quote-unquote juice ball. Appears to have made a gigantic difference. He went from pretty good to elite pretty much overnight. Well, when they change the ball, that will hurt him. Maybe. Danny Sous are not expected to be ready for opening day due to his shoulder injury. Well, you know, Danny Salletar's going to miss time.

Yeah. Zach Granky said his pitches move more in other ballparks than they do at Chase Field. So that's pretty interesting, and that could be helped by the humidor. maybe he'll be even better. Oh, this is interesting. Boston's set to sign Eduardo Nunez if he passes his physical. He had knee issues last year. It'd be a one-year deal.

Like, Nunez was really good for Boston last year. His OPS was nearly 900 with Boston. He didn't steal quite as many bases, but he was hitting the ball so hard. I mean, I don't know that, but he was hitting the ball very well. Padraea not expected to be ready for opening day. Playing time could definitely be an issue for Nunez. But if he hits well, I think they'll find a way to keep a lot.

the lineup. Yeah, he's a guy who can play a bunch of different spots. So, you know, we're drafting Marwin Gonzalez, even though we don't think he's going to have a single everyday role. We, looks like Admardo Nunez is going to have an everyday role at the start of the season. And at Dustin Pejoria's age and coming off knee surgery, there's a chance he's just never right. Oh, yeah.

And Nunez, I think it definitely has 30 steel potential. He has a 40 steel season in 2016. So, uh, it's, pretty interesting signing. Second base preview coming up in next week or maybe the week after. Rob Manfred, the commissioner, he said pace of play changes will be announced before spring training. So we'll know a little bit more about that.

The Blue Jays signed Jaime Garcia to a $10 million one-year deal. Andrew Cashner, two years, $16 million with Baltimore. Who'd you rather have an AL-only, Jaime or Cashner? Jaime, for sure. Troy Tuolwitzky has a chronic heel issue already. He's banged up. And a guy who's, you know, solid in an AL-only league, I guess. Ryan Healy for the Mariners.

He's out four to six weeks after hand surgery. He was about 24th or so at first base last year. And that was with 25 home runs. So it's a solid year, but not so much these days. Ready for some more emails? Yes. All right, let's do about 10 minutes here and get everybody on to their three-day weekend. Jeremy from Montreal.

Hey, Fergie, Larry, Joey, and Justin. Those feel like Canadian? Is Fergie Canadian? Is Justin? I don't know. Is Bieber Canadian? Or no? Maybe that's Justin Bieber?

I have no idea. You know what? I don't know why I said Canadian. I really don't know. Well, the email is from Canada. Right. But, yeah, that doesn't mean anything. I'm not completely sold on Cody Bellinger.

He was exposed in the playoffs, and I'm worried about a batting average regression in the sophomore slump. In a roto league, tell me why I should select Bellinger, ahead of Abraeu and Encarnacion, that are essentially locks for 30 to 35 homers and 100 RBIs. I mean, we've talked a lot about Aaron Judge's pretty mediocre postseason. Because it was also part of that second half slide that he had,

Cody Bellinger struck out 43.3% of the time in the postseason. He had three walks to 29 striagons. Most of those strikeouts came in the World Series, but... But he did pretty well in the... He did pretty well in the... In September. Yeah. Like, I don't...

You're going against really good pitchers in the postseason. And you're going against starting pitchers who, if they're not that good, they pitch four innings. And then these ace relievers come in. So, it's not apples to apples. And he more than held his own against left-handed pitching last season. So that doesn't appear to be a... big concern, but it just, he's not a sure thing. Ballinger hit 39 home runs in 132 games.

He's good. I would still take him over Abraeu and Encarnacion, especially Encarnacion, who has the same risk on the opposite end. He's in such a better lineup than Abraeu. That helps. Yeah. But I am nervous about him just because there is sophomore slumps that happen, and they don't seem to have any rhyme or reason to them.

So, yeah. Well, because Cody Bellinger could be a really good example of this because he outperformed his minor league production by a pretty wide margin, kind of like Aaron Judge, and we just assume that that's just because of the baseball, and it benefits powerheaders, and it could, but it could also be that he's just an 850 OPS bat this season, and which case he might struggle to return value on that investment. Who the hell are Fergie Larry Joey? Justin. Is it possible that it's in sync?

No, because Fergie and Larry are in there. Maybe it's... Oh, it's Major League Baseball players from Canada. Oh, Fergie Jenkins, Joey Votto, Justin Mornow, and Larry Walker? Russell Martin. Oh, wait. Oh, sorry, I'm reading a different list. Larry Walker? Yeah, must be. Okay. Well, that was embarrassing.

Matt in New Orleans. Matt Nola. Dear, in sync 2.0. I'm not sure. Are they reuniting? instinct? I don't think so. Okay, because there's something going on. So anyway, I'm not sure if this has been talked about, but I have an idea to possibly give us a leg up on the juice ball theory. Can we monitor and compare spring training stats this year to the spring training stats from previous years? Look, I honestly think we're going to know because the pitchers are going to tell us.

The pitchers, like, remember in the World Series, Justin Verlander was like, this baseball is even different than the ones we were using all season? So here's the annoying thing is that Rob Manfred had a quote yesterday that said that off-season testing proves that the baseballs are quote-unquote fundamentally the same. Now, this is what annoys me. Nobody's arguing that the baseballs aren't fundamentally the same. The entire argument is that there are ranges for the width of the baseball, the width of the seams, the bounciness, the whatever the rest of the, constitutional coefficient or something. There are, like, there are ranges of these things, and they seem relatively narrow.

You're talking about millimeters one way or the other on the length of the baseball. And the way I look at it is this. When you're talking about a ball that's going 400 feet, if there are four factors, let's say, just to oversimilar it, there are four factors that could impact how far the ball travels. And each one of those factors is off by 1%. That's not very big. that's fundamentally the same. That's not noticeable.

But then you talk about a ball that's traveling 400 feet, and each of those impacts how far it travels by 1%. Now you're looking at 4%. That's 16 feet. That's the difference between a home run that goes three rows into the stands and a ball that's caught 10 feet short of the fence. It's going to be a major story. It'll be reported on.

I think we'll know. I don't know. for a fact that they're going to use the same baseballs in spring training. I'm not sure because minor league balls are not the same as major league balls. So it might not be the same. I would assume that they're not storing all these balls in humidors in the Arizona either. Like spring training stats are crazy anyway, especially in Arizona. Yeah, I think we'll know and early in the regular season.

I don't know. We might know before that. I just feel like it's going to be a major story and reporters are going to be all over. But I also wonder if there's just confirmation bias. Like, nobody, none of the pitchers started complaining about the baseballs until it became reported that the baseball was different. But the blisters were a big deal. Yeah, but they really were. But it was a big deal for like a couple of players.

No, there were a lot of blisters last year. I can't remember anybody other than Quedo and Aaron Sanchez. I just, I worry. But it happened a lot. I worry that there's confirmation bias when it comes to those things. It's pretty clear that the ball was juiced. No, I think that the ball is definitely juiced. I just think it probably became a convenient.

thing for pitchers to point to when things go wrong, when things go wrong for pitchers every year. Maybe, but maybe they were like, oh, well, now I know I'm giving them so many damn home runs. It could be. Yeah, all right. This is Dan in Iowa. Dear, Nick Nohart, Sammy Scrap and Cano Corn. Kangrophy Jr. baseball guys, right? That sounds like to me.

I'm thinking of drafting Machado in the second round, assuming he'll get shortstop eligibility early in the year. He will. I'm then thinking of taking two high-risk, high-reward. four players at shortstop and third base, hoping that one of them pans out, and I can slide Machado over to cover whichever player doesn't work out. And maybe, just maybe, I end up with three great players for cheap. What players do you think would be good to target in the middle to late rounds that would fit this category?

So this would be targeting a shortstop and a third baseman with high upside. Adrian Beltray. He's only going in like the 12th or 13th round, but I think that he's a guy that I want to target in all my leagues, no matter what my approach is. If you want to go deeper than that, Nick Senzel, he may not be in the majors right away, but if you're going with this strategy, that might not work. You might not have to worry about that because he could be up by May or June. Any of the, like, Ahmed Rosario, Glaver Torres.

Mikel Franco? Danzby Swanson for a bench spot. Jose Parraza for stolen bases. Well, first of all, first of all, you're much more likely to do this with a third basement than a short stop. Okay, because once you get to mid to late round picks, actually, you know what the answer is? Third base is much better. Draft a starter at either shortstop or third base.

And then the other guy that you take should be either Glaber Torres or Nick Senzel. Those are two of the best hitting prospects in the minors. They both look like potential fantasy difference makers right away when they get the call. They've both succeeded at the high minors. And they're both probably going to be with their major league teams relatively. early on in the season, I think if you want to go with this strategy, I think that's a smart way to do it. I said something that was kind of stupid when I said more likely third base than shortstop. You need both.

You need one of each in this scenario. So, yeah, third base would be easier to find late back. Like, if it's not Adrian Beltray, it could be Kyle Seeger. He goes extremely late too. That's a great guy to pair with Machado to get a second, to get a third baseman and a shortstop. And then, yeah, and then you can take some chances. You might have to go a little bit earlier at shortstop if you want someone who's going to be up at the beginning of the year. More proven.

So who would that be? Like, I'll give you a name. You draft Machado in the second round. You draft Beltrae in, like, the 14th round. And you draft Trevor Story. Where does he go? He's going about 100 overall, I think. Yeah, I mean, that's not terrible.

Like, you draft Javier Baez. 12th round, something like that? I don't know. All right. Well, sorry I screwed that one up. This is from Blake and Santa Barbara. I'm sorry, Barbara. Dear Richard, Jane, and Billy.

You know, I do. Former fitness video stars. Oh, okay. Yeah. Matt Kemp has apparently dropped 40 pounds. I guess he's, you know, Richard Simmons. And is looking ripped. I did not see that report.

Any mixed league relevance if Matt Kemp makes the team. I just don't know where he'd play. Like, we know Chris Taylor can play in a couple of different spots, but he's probably going to play in the outfield. They're not going to bench Yossel Puegan Jock Peterson every day. He's not going to be on the Dodgers. Is Matt Kemp going to be like the lefty platoon guy for Jock Peterson? He can still hit.

He hit 276 with 19 homers in 115 games last season. That's pretty much a 30 homer pace, but my concern is more about the playing time than anything else. And he had 35 home runs a year before. So there is a chance, especially if he gets traded, that Matt Kemp is a really good sleeper late in your draft. And a couple more here. This is from Scott White's biggest fan.

Why is Nomar Mizarra being overlooked as a breakout candidate and rank these five breakout candidates? Mazzara, Austin Hayes, Bradley Zimmer, Piscotti, Randalli, Gritchick. Mizarra Hayes, Zimmer, Piscotti, Grichick. I would probably go Mazara Piscotti, Hayes, Zimmer Gritchick. But I want to point out that I want Gritchick on every single team that I have.

You know, Grichick and Mizarra are interesting cases because they're kind of opposite ends of the spectrum. Mazar has all of the prospect pedigree. But he has absolutely a guaranteed role. And then you look at the, you know, the skill-based indicators, and they're all just very overwhelming. He doesn't hit the ball very hard. He doesn't hit the ball in the air at all.

Yeah, he does too many ground balls. Someone pointed this out to me, and it actually is very true. If you compare Lorenzo Cain's batted ball data to Omar Mazzaras, it's pretty much identical. And he doesn't steal any bases. So, like, Lorenzo Cain, who doesn't steal bases, is not a very valuable fantasy player. Mizarra played in 148 games last year, man. That's a lot.

He was the number of 37 outfielder in points, number 42 in Roto. So that's not good for somebody who played 148 games. Now, the point is, yes, he's prospect height. he's only going to be 23 years old in April. Could he get better? Like all of that bat and balled out is, yeah, that's interesting. Right. He is terrible against lefties.

I mean, terrible against lefties. But you're also talking about like Bryce Harper's first few years? He wasn't that good. He was good. No, he wasn't. He was better than this. No, no more Mazar's ceiling isn't Bryce Harper. But relative to expectations.

He's worth a shot. Bryce Harper was underwhelming the first like three years of his major league career. And then when the light went on, he was a monster. I think Omar Mazar could absolutely overnight become a 950 OPS bat. It's just right now there's not a lot of evidence for it. It feels like the N.L. West has a lot of righty starting pitchers. A. West?

Yeah, sorry. But I'm not. Yeah. I'm really trying to take off the top of the head. That wouldn't really change my... Yeah, I mean, like this guy is one home run last year against lefties. The year before that, he had two extra base hits all season against Litts. But, like, there are certain, I talked about this on Twitter a couple weeks ago with

Glaber Torres, where I was just like, I happened to be looking at pictures and videos of Glaber Torres, and my thought was like, that's a baseball player. Yeah. Like, I don't know if he's any good, but, like, you look at that guy and, like, that's what they've been. And Omar Mazar looks like an all-star right fielder. Like, that is, like, he is straight out of central casting. All right, a few more. Scott and Richmond.

Would you agree that in a head-to-head points league where my four bench spots need to be occupied by all pitching that drafting Shohei Otani would have a great advantage for his hitting on his five non-starting days to be a fill-in hitter? Yeah, that's the whole point of having Shohei Otani. This is pretty specific. You're not allowed to have any hitters on your bench. Yeah, I mean, that's definitely weird,

but I think that is the whole point of having one Shoahe Otani like we do in CBS Fantasy is in daily lineup leagues. It is an extra bench spot. Yeah. Nick in Seattle, hey, Avon, Marlowe, Omar, and Bunk. That is the wire. It is. Our league format has a keeper style of 2-1-0 per year.

This year was a reset, so next year we'll keep two players as first and second-round picks. I like that. Yeah. I'm picking 11th, expecting to go one of Machado, Bryant, or Correa. Coming back, I'd like to grab a pitcher. Does your ranking change for the top four pitchers at all if you intend to keep them next season? season. P.S. I love the show. PPS. I think Heath's ranking of Mike Trout is correct.

Oh, Nick. It's not? But I thank you for liking the show. No. The question is, does your ranking of those top four pitchers change in Dynasty? In the Dynasty League, be different. Yeah. Like Scherzer went kind of late in our Dynasty League. But in a Keeper League... With the exception of Chris Sale, they're all

pretty much 30 or over, right? Yeah, but Scherzer's got all those innings. He had injuries scares last year. Kershaw has the injury scares as well. I'm pretty sure Severino went ahead of Scherzer in the Dynasty League. That sounds like something that could have happened. And I think Sinder Guard did too. Yeah.

But a keeper league where the most you can keep them is two years. None of them have shown enough signs of wearing down except for Clayton Kirchall with the back, but he's still the number one pitcher on everyone's board. Grant in Boston, 10-team A-L-only league starts two-catchers. Outside of Gary Sanchez in a 10-team A-L-only two-catcher league, outside of Sanchez, Who would you recommend I go after in the draft And when should I draft my first catcher?

Catcher's not good in AL I mean it's bad in both leagues But it's you know Because of the next what At least the next two Maybe the next three after Sanchez are an out only guys If I don't get Sanchez I might

I might be okay just waiting Would you take Francisco Mejia and take a zero Until he comes up I mean that's an interesting thought Because the rest of you know The rest of the catchers in that range nail only are going to hurt you. Like, they're going to help you a little bit in counting stats, but for a month,

you're not putting yourself that far behind. You can put him on your bench and plug some crap guy in. He's going to be really good. Who do we like, though? Like, James McCann could have value. Robinson Chorinos could have value. Not that we obviously like Salvador Perez better. Zunino has like a boom-bust guy.

But it's really, it's really. real bad. I wonder if Christian Vasquez has any an AL-only sleeper appeal. I guess. I mean, he's only really had, like, a good month in his career. Look, you should not play an AL-only league that starts two-catchers. I'm not sure two-catcher league should be a thing. I don't think...

I don't get it. They fundamentally don't make all that much sense. They are the dumbest thing we do in fantasy baseball. It's like, oh, it's the worst position. Let's start two of them. And, like, I get it because there's middle infield and corner. corner infield and five outfielders, but like, boo. Yeah, yeah, whatever.

All right, that's it for today's show, for today's mailback. Thank you, everybody, for listening and for contributing. You can send your emails to fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. We will talk to you on Tuesday. Have a wonderful three-day weekend. Enjoy President's Day. On Tuesday, we'll come back with either relief pitchers or first baseman. We'll preview the position.

And we'll talk to you then. See you later.