Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/19: Moustakas, Vlad, More MLB News; Mailbag (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 19, 2019

We've got plenty of news items and your questions to get to, but first Scott will tell you about his favorite team that he has drafted so far and Adam will question why Scott loves it so much! ... Why Mike Moustakas' signing is bad news for a lot of Brewers (11:55), when we expect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (16:41), plus our thoughts on Charlie Blackmon in RF, Giancarlo Stanton in Year 2 with NYY (20:30), a couple of exciting OFs who may lead off for their teams and who BOS will use for saves (28:26) ... Part One of your emails as we answer questions about Joey Lucchesi (31:00), Ryan O'Hearn (34:00), Joey Gallo (35:50), Anthony Rizzo and more. Then we give you some more MLB news (43:30) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris. We are back from our holiday weekend. Welcome, everybody.

Team Scam. Scott and Adam here. I'm Adam. You'll hear Scott in a second on fantasy baseball today. And we welcome you. I hope you enjoyed the first base preview. you, not so much the discussion about Jose Ebreu and his unfortunate injury last year. But the rest of it was great.

And Scott, how was your three-day weekend? It was just lovely, Adam. Good. Saw a movie. Don't get to do that much as a parent to young children. What did you see, Scott White? He took off on my own. And you saw what?

I saw into the Spiderverse. What the hell was that? What do you mean? What was that? What is that? Maybe you're even more out of it than I am. Oh, I'm totally out of it. Yeah, I'm talking.

Oh, yeah. Into the Spider-verse. I don't know what is. Yeah. You know, the Spider-Man animated with all the different Spider-Man from different multi, multi, you know, different universes, parallel universes. All right. It was kind of overhyped.

I was a little disappointed. Okay. You answered my next question. Well, we got a lot of baseball to talk about. second base preview coming up tomorrow. Hopefully Heath will join us for that. If not, it will be me and Scott or, yeah, you know, break it down second base.

And then we'll do at least one more position preview. Shortstop for sure, maybe third base by the end of this week. Scott's going to tell us about his favorite fantasy team that he's drafted so far, what he likes about it. Then we have a ton of news and a lot of your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, but we're going to talk about Musacus, Vlad, Machado, and Harper. Charlie Blackman is going to play right field this year. closer situation in Baltimore.

Yeah, just stuff like that. So let's talk about your favorite team. We did talk about it briefly. When was that? It was last week, whenever we talked about that head-to-head categories mock. This is so far the favorite team that you've drafted. 12-te-to-head categories, five-by-five, batting average instead of OBP, and wins instead of quality starts.

So, you know, your standard five-by-five. But the pitching roster is five starting pitchers, two relievers. So what do you like about this team, as we could use this as a guide for our listeners, and how to draft an amazing team that Scott White's going to give you an A on? So this team, yeah, it is my favorite so far. This is not a favorite format of mine, but I think the thing that stands out about this team is it was the heaviest I went on starting pitcher. my second, third, and fifth picks were all starting pitchers, Chris Sale, Garrett Cole, and Zach Granky.

So it's a very good pitching staff. And I don't know if it's as simple as saying you need to have a loaded pitching staff this year. I think part of what made it work is we were dealing with the head-to-head lineup instead of the standard roto lineup, so fewer hitter spots to fill. And since it was a categories lineup, instead of a points lineup, it kind of broadened the number of potentially quality, potentially impact hitters because you don't have to worry about plate discipline, right? Like you went in a points league. So somebody like Miguel Anduhar, who I don't love so much in points leagues, ends up being an asset here because a very safe source of batting average, I feel like. So, you know, it may have been, I need to see more. I need to have more experiences where maybe I get three pitchers in the first five rounds like that to see if I would be similarly happy with the way my team turns out.

Maybe it was a situation in this league where I just happened to get a lot of upside hitters that I can't always rely on being available to me, guys like Yasio Puig, David Dahl. Andrew Har, like I said. But I feel like this is a great mix of hitting categories being filled. And I know my pitching staff is out. I don't even have to worry about that. And I was still able to put together a lineup that I think should be competitive in all five categories. I got Adel Bermondisi, carrying me in steals, Bryce Harper, Jose Abraeu. Really power spread throughout.

There isn't a guy in my starting line. if who doesn't give me power, which is important when you only have nine hitter spots to deal with, you can't really... As power-laden as the league is right now, I don't know that you can afford to have, like, a steel specialist. So that's... That's probably my favorite team so far.

Want to go through the whole lineup? I don't love your... I don't love it. You don't love the team. Okay. You're not alone. You're not alone. Well, okay, your lineup, your hitting is great.

It's Sale, Cole, Granky, Haney, and Musgrove. And as you mentioned, Colin McHugh. You mentioned this on the previous show when we talked about. Collin McHugh would be your fifth starter over Musgrove, but he's only RP eligible right now. You have Trinanin and Yates at Closer. You have Dylan Bundy on your bench. So your pitching is great. Catcher, Danny Jansen, first base, Jose Ibrahim,

second base Scooter Jeanette, third base, Miguel and Duhar, shortstop at Alberto Mondesi. Outfield Harper, Pueig, and Dahl. Utility is Luke Voight with Carlos Santana, Adam Eaton, and Brandon Nimmo on the bench. Santana Eaton and Nimmo. I don't like it mostly because of the Yankees.

So Aaron Boone is committed to giving... I think he said like he wants DJ LaMayhew to play 145 games. And they've also committed to... to Troy Tula, not committed, but said that Troy Toulouewski's, you know, going to be their shortstop, I guess. There's no way he's going to play every day until Didi comes back. I'm getting a little concerned about And Duhar's playing time. You know, they just, they have Torres and they have Torres, Toulowicz, and LeMayhew for two spots.

And I could see them moving LeMayhew to third or something like that and benching And Duhar. at times. And then Void obviously is a huge question mark. And I mean, truth be told, I have Andrew Har on my bus list, but it has nothing to do with performance and just playing time, like you said. I think it would be more concerning for Void's playing time, because, and I don't know if there's any plans to try Andrew Har at all at first base this spring, but I feel like he would be the higher priority bat after what he.

he did last year when, boy, it's still largely unproven. Yeah. So, you know, I do have some concerns about Andrew Har's playing time. I think in a situation

like this where you really need batting average help in the middle of the draft, he's still an asset in a standard 5 by 5 league like this. Obviously, I'm not going to pass him over. Do you have one great hitter on your team in this format? Well, Harper.

Yeah, but Harper, it could be a batting average killer. Yeah, I mean, he could hit anywhere between 250 and 320 if, you know, just looking at his track record. I think the truer version of Harper is the guy who hits around 300, looking at some of his quality of contact numbers, looking at what he did in the second half last year. But, of course, we've said that a lot over the years, and several times now it hasn't panned out. I was disappointed with having to start my draft with him in sale. I didn't like a lot of the alternatives. Why? I think you took Christian Yelich in the same range,

but I wasn't thrilled to start my team with him either. Well, why were you not thrilled to start with Harper and Sale? What is it about that combo you didn't like? Too risky? Because, I mean, of all the first, second rounders, Harper is probably, probably has the most downside. I mean, I could put a Cooney in that discussion as well.

I mean, there's a chance Yelich regresses to being like a 25 homer guy, and he's not really living up to that draft position either. Yelich was on the board. Yelich went right after you took Harper and sale. You had the 12th pick, so you went Harper's sale 12, 13, and then Chris took Yelich, and then I took Aaron Judge

with the third pick of round two. It's very obvious to me that right now you're going to, most people are going to feel great about drafting Trout, Jose Ramirez, Aronado. Let's stop right there. For sure, those four you're going to be happy with.

Then, are you going to be thrilled drafting Jose Altova? I think we would. Max Scherzer, yeah, he's awesome. J.D. Martinez, it's hard to see him not hitting 300 with a ton of home runs, RBIs, and runs, even though he's a little older.

So that, I think, is six people, I said. Maybe seven. Seven. I think you're up to seven. And then in a Roto League, Categories League, Trey Turner is probably going to go there in a lot of them. He did in this league. He was seventh.

So you have to decide how you feel about that. And then after that, it's the next two players in this draft after those eight were two guys coming off injuries. One probably, I don't know what's more serious. But Alex Bregman and Francisco Lindor and then Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper. Yeah, I would say Lindor is definitely more serious. Yeah, in my opinion, there are seven, maybe eight clear-cut picks. and then you know

a lot of round two kind of guys yeah I agree with that like that's the thing I have doubts about Yelich I have doubts about judge I think Harper has the most upside of the three

it's kind of a controversial pick taking him in round one like I said it wasn't a pick I'm excited about but I think I the rest of my draft helped helped make up for the areas where he might fall short, mainly batting average.

I got Jose Abrae, who has consistently been a 290 hitter prior to last year, and there's not anything to lead me to believe he's on the decline. It was just kind of a fluky injury plague thing. Scooter Jeanette's always a good source of batting average. Andrew Har, like I said, seems like a safe source of that. And David Dahl should be too playing in Colorado. So I think I helped bring back up the batting. average damage, Harper may or may not cause.

And if you're looking, if you just look at the projections, in my starting lineup, the player projected for the fewest homers is Danny Jansen 16. That's still pretty good for a catcher. No one else is projected fewer than 22. Everybody's between 22 and 30. Harper, of course, might hit 45. Sure. So, yeah.

Luke Boyt might hit 60. No, all right. I see, it's interesting that your favorite team is one in which you started. So pitcher heavy, so it is. possible to do it. Scott got his steals, got his power, got his batting average, and his really strong at pitching, and he got his saves as well. All right, let's go to the big news.

The Brewers signed Mike Mustakis to a one-year, $10 million deal. He could play some second base. They will experiment a little bit with that in spring training. What do you think about Mustakis? Where is he in your third basement rankings? He's been, I believe, top 12, two straight

years, even though last year was a down year for him. He has been top 12, yeah. Yeah. So I have him in my, I have him 18th, and I might move him down with this news. I think it was bad news basically for the entire Brewer's infield. Moustakis, most of all. Because somebody has to play second base between him and Shaw. Sounds like Mustakis, opposite of what they did the last season, Mustakis is going to get the first chance at second base. He's not known for his range at third base. It'll be even more necessary at second base. He did get drafted as a shortstop, so I guess he has some middle-infield experience.

But I'm thinking it's a long shot. He could legitimately play second base every day. And we already know they weren't comfortable with Shaw there every day because he played only like two-thirds of the starts there in September and got replaced a lot late in games. I'm thankful that it seems like Shaw is still their first priority. at third base. He's the first priority in the lineup. Hopefully this doesn't hurt his value too much,

and he was the more valuable player to begin with. But I'm not totally sure of that. I mean, Musacus could be a disaster at second base. And then is he just a bench player? Maybe another way to get him in the lineup is basically platooning him in Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar had the best number of these three last year, but if he gets off to a slow start,

obviously not such a great second half, then maybe he goes back to just starting against lefties with Shaw bouncing between third base and first base is necessary. I think there's the, I think Mustakis is most at risk of being less than an everyday player, but Sean Aguilara at risk as well. And then by the way, the Brewer's top prospect, Kestinheera,

happens to be a second basement and is expected to be major league ready at some point this season. what happens when he gets involved? What if Mike Mastakis were the everyday third baseman for the brewers? Because you said you have him 18th right now and you might drop him at third base. But just hypothetically, you know, he's obviously got power. I don't think we can expect a great batting average from him. He had 251 last year, but he did hit 271, no, 272 in 2017.

But let's just say he were, you know, below average batting average, but good power guy probably going to drive and runs, score some runs. Where would he be if he were in everyday third basement? Well, prior to this signing 18th

is where I have him. You know, I'm, for whatever it's worth, he wasn't great with the Brewers last season. He actually had a lower slugging percentage with them

that he did with the Royals. It's something like six homers in 90 at bats at Miller Park, which is a pretty good pace. Of course, he's not going to be playing there all the time. But he had 2.30, wanted Miller Park it was weird yeah um so where basically i feel like there's a clear top 11

at third base i mean we could quibble about the order but it's basically uh hosei ramirez through justin turner josh donaldson that that pair and then i have travis shaw right after that who has playing time concerns now max muncie playing time concerns matt chapman health concerns Miguel Anduhar playing time concerns Jerks and Profar Who I like a lot But there's There's

Reasons to be skeptical of the power Will Myers Mike Bustakis You know he's he's in that range And I'd still be inclined I mean in a In a fictional scenario Where there were no playing time concerns for

Mustakis You could probably make the case For him to be in the top 15 But since we don't live in that world. I think he has to be the lowest of that group. And I may drop him behind Raphael Deverex. There you go.

You haven't even said Raphael Devers's name. I will be drafting a lot of Raphael Devers. He is cheap on draft day. Fairly cheap. And I know there's not a ton of great reasons based on last year to expect him to have a breakout, but we've seen it happen before. Sophomore Slump. I want some Raphael Devers.

Toronto GM Ross Atkins said there's no firm timeline for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Scott, right now on February 19th, your best guess, when we see Vlad in the majors. So I haven't actually counted up the games to see the first one where, you know, that date in mid-April when he would come up and they would retain another year of team control. But mid-April, you know, let's say April 15th or whatever. Okay. You know, the Braves didn't do it with the Coonia right on that date. They waited, I think, another series. But it won't be long after that.

And obviously, they can't commit to that publicly because then they would have a grievance filed, probably. Right. But that's what I expect to happen. That's what everybody expects to happen. Okay, the Padreys offered Manny Machado an eight-year deal worth at least $240 million, according to Bob Nightingale.

No, we do not want anyone to go to San Diego. Nobody. Philadelphia closing in on Bryce Harper. What? It's not such a terrible place to hit anymore. San Diego? I'd be okay with that. Really?

Yeah, I mean, it'd be fine. But he, like, he does have pretty interesting career home road splits, Manny Machado. And he wasn't even that good with the Dodgers. He does. And I mean, I'd rather see him go to the White Sox, sure. But I don't think it would be. I wouldn't be crying if he went to, San Diego. It wouldn't be as bad as like

Harper to San Francisco. They'd be a pretty interesting team of Padres if they got him. They got some good young players. Machado had an 825 OPS with the Dodgers last year. Charlie Blackman's going to play right field. So no more center for

Charlie Blackman. Does this mean Ian Desmond is their center fielder? Yeah, that's what I saw. How about that? I mean, David Dahl can play center field too. So I don't think this means Ian Desmond is necessarily a fixture in the lineup. Obviously, he's the one we want bumped out.

I am encouraged that part of this report was David Dalts are left fielder because they think his range will play best. It's, you know, an expansive left field. They think his range would play better out there than Blackmun's would, which would seem to indicate that, yes, they do want Dahl as an everyday player. but for now Desmond is the center fielder. We'll see if the bat allows him to stick there. As far as Blackman goes, I mean, he's obviously losing a step.

Last year was a down year for him, but he still was a top seven outfielder. And he hit 291 with 29 home runs. He scored 119 runs and stole 12 bases, only 70 RBIs. I think he was batting a lot of lead off, maybe second. The year before that, he was the number one hitter in baseball. the year before that he was 15th in points, ninth in Roto. So do you consider Charlie Blackman a safe second round pick? I mean the venue, the playing time,

but they pretty much make him that. Yeah, he does, it's hard to know exactly how quickly the age is going to bring him down. But I think the home environment makes for a nice, gentle landing more often than not in these situations. But yeah, he definitely appears to be declining in terms of athleticism. Two years ago, 2017, he was a six-war player last year, 0.8 because the defense was so bad. Blackman has been a top 16 hitter in points and Roto three straight years.

Last year, he was 16th in points, 15th in Roto. Okay, what else we got? John Carlos Stanton said he was bothered by an injury late last year. I think it was a hamstring injury. And yeah, his numbers really dipped. I don't recall this. Last 31 games, Stanton batted 198 with a 700 OPS. So he ended up as the number 22 hitter in points league's number 16 in Roto.

And he was ninth in points at outfield and seventh in Roto at outfield. But again, 22nd in points overall hitter and 16th in Roto. So yeah, that's Stanton. He's played almost the full season two years in row but dealt with some injuries last year. Just real quick, so are you generally optimistic, pessimistic, or just kind of normal on John Carlos Stanton? I'm actually a little pessimistic about Stanton because his success depends so much on big outlier power. It reminds me a lot of the way Ryan Howard's career unfolded and Howard had a huge drop off at about this same age. When you're missing that much, you can make up for it by.

hitting the ball crazy hard like Stanton has managed to do. But when you lose a little bit of that strength, it can it can unravel quickly. My best guess is that's not what's happening and it was just an off year. But I'm not drafting him with great confidence either, whether it's into round two early in round three. I would love Stanton in round three. You know, he was not bad last year. He was the number nine outfieler, like I said, in points, number seven in Roto, and it feels like he had a down year, but he drove in 100 runs and scored 102 runs. So I think in that lineup, he has to be really bad to not be a big-time contributor in runs in RBIs. His batting average is all over the place throughout his career, but he's never going to be great there.

I figure he's probably a 265-ish hitter. He had 266 last year, but he had 38 home runs in a bad year. So I think, you know, settling in to New York, he was terrible at home. He batted 229 at home last year. He was getting booed at home earlier in the year. Maybe that had a mental effect on him. I think year two with the Yankees is going to be much better for Stanton. And again, he was already pretty good.

So I'm excited. I'm excited about it. I'm coming up with a lot of reasons to be pessimistic about all the second round hitters. So I'm not saying I want to draft him. I'm just saying it's not like I'm gung-ho about, oh, he's going to be great again, MVP caliber. I'm not sure about that. Yeah, I don't see MVP caliber, but he's right now 22nd at ADP. And when you compare the other hitters going around, I mean, Freddie Freeman goes right in front of him and I would take Freeman.

But Story, Ben Intendi, Blackman, Juan Soto after him. To me, there's nobody, I guess Blackman, I guess I take Blackman over. Stanton, but I think it's a good range for him. I would too. And I'd take story because I feel like I'd rather have the power speed guy than just the power guy. I have questions about what's happening with both and the strikeout rate. Okay, Ronald the Coonias got could bat leadoff. We know that's a big deal with steals.

if you're just joining the podcast and didn't listen a few weeks back. Scott and Chris went through it all. The Braves don't run in the middle of their order. And Acuna stole 14 bases in 18 attempts in 67 games batting leadoff. He stole two bases and three attempts in 26 games batting second. And he did not attempt to steal anywhere outside of first or second in the lineup. So he could bat lead off. And that would be a pretty big deal, right, for Acuna?

Yeah, if it happens, if it's consistent, if the Braz are consistent about it, I'm still skeptical it's going to because that power it's kind of a waste to have Nick Markekekeke as batting behind great on-base guys like Freddie Freeman and Josh Donaldson

when they could have their best power hitter batting behind them. And Inder and Ciarte, I think, is somebody Brian Snitker likes to have at the top of the lineup when he's going well. So we'll see how it plays out. But Acuna has said he prefers to bat lead-off,

and maybe that'll have some weight here. All right, I'm going to give you some more news, and you just give me a real quick 10-second sound bite on the news. Aaron Hicks is the front-runner to lead off for the Yankees. That sounds great. I think he batted mostly second last year, or was at the end of last season anyway. But yeah, he's a good on-base guy with those big.

big power hitters behind him, it could lead to a ton of runs. Yeah, honestly, it might sound crazy. If Aaron Hicks is leading off for the Yankees in points leagues where he's been really good, I think he's a top 10 outfielder on a per game basis. Reds manager, David Bell, said, Nick Senzel could be Cincinnati center fielder. Nick Senz, yeah, I mean, their best bet aside from Senzel is Scott Shebler, which I don't know that he really needs to be playing every day. There's some power there, fine.

But that seems like a clearer path for Senzel right now than either second or third base, where Scooter Jeanette and Suarez appear to have those positions sewn up. So that's hopefully his best path at the lineup. By the way, Hicks only was in either first, second or third. He only started 68 games between those three spots. actually did play mostly, bat mostly third.

It's pretty evenly spread out. 31 games leading off. Yeah, he was all over the place. Four batting second, 33rd, batting third. 13, 18, 28, and four, batting fourth,

fifth, six, and seven, so whatever. Yeah. But yeah. Consistently batting lead-up, I mean, though, with a guy who reaches base

40% of the time. Exactly. And has judge and Stanton behind him. Could be big. Yeah. Could be big. That's a good point

you bring up about the points league value. It would, it would probably it's reason to at least look into raising him in that format. Well, it's based on this for Aaron Hicks. I mean, I looked at his points in 2017 and 18. I gave him 155 games. He always is dealing with injuries.

That's a problem. But in 2017, he would have been the 10th best outfielder in points. In 2018, it would have been the ninth best outfielder in points if he had played 155 games. Now, that's based on everybody else playing the amount of games they did. It's not everybody playing 155 games, but it is what it is. Let's see, Jacob de Grom may consider limiting his innings if he doesn't get a long-term deal. We'll see.

That would be unfortunate, but I understand that from a financial standpoint. Back to Hicks. More on Hicks? Yeah. Okay. So I keep saying things and then looking them up and they're wrong. He reaches base at about a 37% clip. 400 was obviously much higher than that.

He's still very good on base. Yeah. Met's first baseman Peter Alonzo's defense has improved. I think we are rooting for him to win that job. Tyler Glassnow's velocity is up. Ray's starting pitcher Tyler Glass now. Velocity is up. Like he needed more.

Geez. Yeah, he throws like 97. And his ERA with the raise was 420 last year, but he had one terrible start. Seven earn runs in two-thirds of an inning at Toronto. Remove that start, and he would have had a 3-10 ERA in 50. innings with the rates. And finally, Scott, Craig Kimbril, unlikely to return to Boston.

We got a real sleeper closer there, whoever it's going to be. I mean, I kind of like Brazier. Who do you like in the Sox bullpen? Yeah, I feel like he has to be the frontrunner based on what they have. I've been operating this whole offseason like they couldn't possibly go without adding a proven closer. They're the Red Sox for crying out loud. But those options have pretty much all.

gone by the wayside. They're eliminating Kimbril. So, yeah, Brazier. Ryan Brazier. All right, it's time for our misleading headline of the day. Then we're going to get to some of your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I was on MILB.com, the minor league site. You know, very good site.

And I see a headline, Scott, that says, Yard goats take peanuts out of the ball game. And I thought we were going to get a story about goats invading a stadium and eating all the peanuts. and dragging them away from the ballpark. But in fact, this was a story. Yard goats take peanuts out of the ballgame about the Hartford Yard Goats,

a minor league team, removing peanut products from their concessions due to allergies. Very misleading. Misleading. Misleading. They're a plague on our society in 2019. I mean, it's good, you know,

that they're doing this. But, yeah, I thought we were going to get a good story. about goats and we didn't get it. Well, this podcast is definitely not the goat of episodes. We'll be right back with your emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. This one comes from Davin. He says, Ola, Lionel, Luke and Cristiano.

Oh, Luca and Cristiano. I think those are soccer stars. Messi, Rinaldo, Luca, I don't know who that is. I don't know. Austin Barnes was described on Thursday's podcast as a player with potentially exciting potential. Despite the distaste for a young Joey Lucasey, would you be okay putting Lucasey in that category? Potentially exciting potential.

He's currently ranked just outside the top 100. But there's still time before the truth comes knocking, I believe he should be 40 to 50 spots higher. Why is my Lucasey optimism? false. So Joey Luc Casey seems like he might be a victim of the way teams are handling their pitching staffs these days. In the past, he may have wound up a reliever, wound up being a reliever, just because he doesn't have a full enough arsenal to last, to really have success the third time

through the order. But the way the Padres are managing him, they're just taking him out before he gets the third time through the order. Maybe he'll refine his arsenal and be able to become more of a traditional starting pitcher. But right now I see him as a guy who's capped at five, maybe stretching to six innings occasionally. That's how they handled him last year. And that's kind of how I think it's going to keep going. Great strikeout rate.

So by the more traditional way of evaluating pitchers, yeah, I look at him and say this guy looks like a breakout candidate. but I just don't think the Padres are going to handle him that way. He had a nice year for a rookie, 408 ERA, and he gave up a lot of home runs, but 145 strikeouts to 43 walks and 130 innings. He did have a pretty high whip, 1.29. He's 26, so he's not like a young pup. First nine batters, 336 ERA. Second nine batters, 354 ERA.

Third nine, eight-15 ERA. And only one start of more than six innings. Now, Scott, Lucasey made. only six starts of six or more innings. So he basically had five starts of exactly six innings and one of like six and two-thirds. But four of those six starts did come in August and September. I'm willing to draft him with a late, late pick and give it a shot. Maybe, who knows, this is year or two.

Maybe he's better. Maybe he goes deeper into games. I think there is a lot to like here. Yeah, I mean, I don't think it's a bad use of a late-round pick. I'm just not counting on much, clearly, to be ranking him so long. I was excited last April remember he was the guy we talked about a lot, but then it became clear to me what was going on there, and I backed off. I don't think there's a ton of upside, really, even if he's good at missing bats.

Let's go to a first base question from No Name. Ryan O'Hern of the Royals seems like potential value. I didn't hear his name mentioned on the first base preview. Should we ignore Ryan O'Hern or is he a sleeper? I think you could make a case that he's a sleeper. Yeah, there's definitely power potential there. 12 home runs and 149 at bats last year. Didn't it hit a ton of home runs in the minors,

but if you look at the bad of ball profile, you know, it would seem more in line with the kind of power he showed at the majors. He does have strikeout issues, and more severely he has supporting cast issues. Not a lot going on in that Royals lineup. Not a lot to drive him in or for him to drive in. And he was four for 37 against lefties. Yes.

Yes, platoon concerns as well. So, I mean, for somebody who wasn't considered a high-end prospect, has a very limited track record and serious downsides. I'm not ready to invest in him in like a mixed list. league context. Ryan O'Hern had a 950 Ops. Yep, he did hit for a lot of power. And he walks a fair amount too. Yeah, he had a 353 OBP. I'm not saying there's nothing interesting here. I just think I can come up with first baseman that I find more interesting. Justin Boer or Ryan O'Hern? Well, see, Boer could, Boer looks like he has a job right now. And I love the skills for Boer.

as we talked about a lot last year. But when Otani comes off the DL, provided Albert Pooholst is healthy, somebody's going to have to sit at that group. And Boer would seem to be the one who does most often. So probably O'Hern. Aaron from Cleveland. I play in a 10-te-6-to-head categories league. I have OBP runs, RBIs, home runs, steals, and strikeouts.

I really like the potential of Joey Gallo, but I don't know if our format helps his value or hurts it. Having OBP helps Gallo, but strikeouts as another category hurts Gallo. Give me your advice. Should I target him? Only take him if he falls well below his ADP or avoid him altogether.

Joey Gallo. So Gallo manages to post, you know, he walks a lot. That is true. He had a 312 on base percentage last year. The batting average is so bad that the walks aren't really able to salvage it. Maybe it does raise him a little over a batting average league, but I think it's more a case of the strikeouts hurting him. Ah, okay.

Yeah, yeah, he's got to go below his ADP then in this situation. That category kills you with Joey Gallo. Let's see how many strikeouts he had last year. He had 207, holy cow. And 196 the year before. Yeah, you got to drop them. This one's from Lou. I've narrowed my last keeper spot down to Kirshaw or Votto.

Ten team roto league. Standard categories plus home runs against and OPS. Would you keep Kershaw or Vado? I would keep... I would keep Votto. Okay. Very good. This is from Casey.

Hearing a lot of talk about Anthony Rizzo having a down year, He looked pretty solid from May on. Maybe it was that back injury in April or the cold weather or bad luck. Seems like Rizzo's skills are all right, pretty much in line with his career. What do you think? Actually, that's a good point because after I saw this email, his last 130 games for Rizzo, got off to a bad start. Last 130 games, he batted 304 with 21 home runs.

That's higher than you'd expect, by the way, the batting average. 903 OPS, and he was great. So, yeah, no, I think this email is spot on. That's how I'd break down. It was a down year if you look at the final numbers, but that's how I'd break down that down year. Sure. I didn't remember him having a back injury in April.

But, yeah, I mean, Rizzo in the third round is pretty good. Just like I said on the first base preview in a Roto league, because his plate discipline's great, so he's better in points than Roto. Yeah, but he's not bad. This is a point Chris would bring up last. to. There's a chance we haven't seen Rizzo's best case scenario yet, and I actually think those final five months now that I have the numbers in front of me. He had 303, like you said, that's higher than we expect from him. His Babbitt during that time was 303. But he was only on a 27 homer pace,

which is lower than you'd expect from him. He's usually in the 32-33 range. But what I was going to say, Scott, is just that he has been better in points than Roto. At his best, Rizzo usually performs like a top 12 hitter in points leagues and more like top 20 in Roto. But he's so safe. So that's part of it too. All right. Here's an email from Jordan. Dear Colombo, Barney, and Punch.

Are those like detectives? Are they like sidekicks or like cop shows, I guess? I think these are all from Colombo. I was recently looking at Scott's outfield tiers comparing them to the current depth charts that are listed on CBS for each team. I understand it's early. The depth charts won't necessarily be the same at the beginning of the season, but there are currently 21 players listed as starting outfielders

who are not listed anywhere on Scott's tiers page. All right, Scott, we'll see it. He's putting you to the test. How do you see these players fitting into the tiers or would you simply just put them all in the very last tier? And here are some of the names. Cotel Marte, Jason Hayer, Howard, Granderson, Brinson, Austin Dean, Jeff McNeil, Nick Williams, Chris Shaw, Stephen Dugger, Mack Williamson, DJ Stewart, Adam Engel, Greg Allen, Leonis Martine, Tyler Naquin, Mikey Mattoch, Jacoby Jones, Alex Gordon, Brett Phillips, Nick Martini and Delano to Shields.

I think Martini is, but I'll double check that. Greg Allen is somebody we've talked about, I've moved him up. It isn't reflected in the tears yet, but I'll have tiers 2.0 coming out next week. A lot of these cases, they're just not outfield eligible yet in fantasy. You can tell Marte, Jeff McNeil. I guess those are the main two. But they're obviously listed in the tiers of the positions where they are eligible. And then the rest, I just don't think are good enough to draft,

unless you're talking about the very deepest of leagues, AL and L only. Yeah, so I'm not too... regretful about leaving them out? I very badly want Delano to Shields to be fantasy relevant. Everybody knows this. Every year I want Delano to Shields to be fantasy relevant. I know he can run. I know he can get on base.

I don't know that he's going to play all that much. He's slated right now to bat ninth and play center field for the Rangers. But they have Willie Calhoun. I'm sure they'd like to get him some at bats. Yeah, I guess we have a 15-team rodeo draft today. I can see myself taking the Shields there. Last email for now. We'll try to get some more later.

David from North Bergen, New Jersey. 14 team, 6x head-to-head categories league. I heard how you guys said that... I heard how you guys said that getting two to three of the top 20 pitchers would give an owner a distinct advantage over other teams. I'm wondering if that strategy would also work for steals. Like if I draft Merrifield, Marte, and Mondesie. Won't I presumably win steals every week?

And those guys would not kill me in the other offensive categories like Billy Hamilton would. What do you think about that, Scott, getting Merrifield, Marte, and Mondesie? It's probably overkill. There's a good chance you would almost never lose steals. You know, a lot of...

This is one thing I struggle with in the head-to-head categories league is, in theory, a bunch of 20 steel guys should help you compete with an owner who has one of those 50, 40-50 steel guys. But the 20 steel guys, you can't really count on when they're going to get their 20 steals.

And you're going week to week with it. So it's frustrating when you have what would be a fine total in a roto league, but in a head-to-head categories league, it never seems to pan out for you. But obviously this would eliminate that problem. It's kind of you're having to thread a needle on draft day, I feel like, landing all of these guys at appropriate value. But I don't think it's a terrible idea. If you find it ends up being overkill,

there's going to be somebody in your league who needs deals and would be willing to pay a premium for them through trade. So I don't think it's bad. I don't think there's anything wrong with it. All right, news and notes. Roll this Chapman cannot guarantee that he will not have knee issues this year.

Okay. Neither can I. That sucks. Seattle outfielder Malik Smith has a sore shoulder. He's unlikely to be ready to play. They have the March 21st and 22nd games in Japan. So he's unlikely to be able to play the outfield, but Malik Smith might be able to DH.

These are things that we're just going to have to sort of keep an eye on. Angel starting pitcher Matt Harvey suffered a glute strain. This is actually a round of Angels news here. Shohei Otani, hoping for opening day. We don't think it's going to happen. They already said sometime in May. And Justin Upton has Pateller tendonitis in his right knee. Is Matt Harvey on your radar at all, Scott?

I'm trying to remember if I have him in the tears. Not, I mean, not really, no. Okay. I don't want, I don't have much hope for Matt Harvey anymore. I had two years of that. I'm basically over it. Contract stuff. The Yankee signed Severino to a four-year, $40 million deal,

could be worth $52 million. Marcus Stroman wants a long-term deal. Here's an interesting player. Jorge Polanco, the twin, signed Polanco to a long-term deal, and they signed Max Kepler to a long-term deal. Polanco, Scott White, he, get my little Polanco notes out here, he's kind of a points league start-worthy guy man person. He, where is it?

He's basically been like a top 15 shortstop in points leagues, two straight years, you know, if you gave him a full season. So, in fact, in 2017, he played 133 games. If he had played 155, he would have been the number nine shortstop in points leagues. Last year, he had played 77 games. And if you just give him a – if you double his games, give him 154, he would have been the number 13th shortstop in points league. Is Jorge Polanco ranked anywhere close to your top 12 at shortstop?

He's not. And I know some people are excited about him and his potential. I don't really think he has breakout potential beyond what he's shown I think he's pretty good as he is it's kind of Andrelton Simmons like for me if you wind up with him as your starter it's not bad necessarily

but I think you need to aim for more upside a higher power ceiling specifically at shortstop given the way the position has evolved and it's turned out to be one of the deepest in fantasy So I think, you know, as a middle infielder in a roto league, fine. But I don't want him as my starting short-south. Yeah, that's a good call, though, because he could lead off for the twins.

Rastor Resource has him leading off. He batted mostly second and third last year. So he could give you some runs. They'll give you a handful of steals, maybe like 12, 15 steals. And, you know, he's batted 280 or better two of the last three years. So that's Polanco. More news. Let's see, we got the Mets signing, Dainty Etch of Aria,

defensive specialist, Padre signing relief pitcher Aaron Loop, Red signed Derek Dietrich to a minor league contract. Bruce Bochie's retiring after this season, NCCC Sabathia is retiring after this season. Are they both Hall of Famers, Scott White? I think so. I think so. Bochi just the fact that he's won three-world series,

it'll be hard to leave him out. Sabathia's career war is right on the fringes. but I think he has enough standout seasons on his resume at that I would give him I would have him I would lean yes on him well it's a bathier all right he's going to be pretty close case yeah okay let's go through the news excuse me the emails part two here we go

we finished the show with some more of your questions Matt in Michigan a long time listener never had an email read on the air all right here we go Matt big day keep her question 12 teams team, 18 categories, 9 hitting, 9 pitching. We're allowed to keep three players each for a maximum of three years in a row. So please pick three keepers in the round in which I would need to keep them from the list below.

Chris Davis, round 7, Zach Granky, round 9. Chris Archer, round 12. Charlie Morton, round 16. David Peralta, round 23. We got Chris Davis, round 7, Zach Granky, round 9. Chris Archer, round 12 Charlie Morton, round 16, David Peralta, round 23.

Davis and Granky, I think, are must. I could be talked into any of the others for that third spot, but I'm going to go Archer in round 12 just because I'm not confident Morton or Peralta is going to make a real impact this year. They both seem like players who could regress out of the mixed league discussion entirely, and then it doesn't really so much matter

what kind of discount you get them for. If you are, yeah, that is an interesting point. If you are going, though, by ADP on fantasy pros right now, Morton is actually going 10 spots higher than Archer. That's silly. Come on, guys. Yes. How many strikeouts did Archer have even last year?

Disappointing as it was. Go ahead, look it up. I will look it up. I am going to guess he had 193. He had 162. Only made 27 starts, so seven fewer than usual. But he was right at, he was just below 10 strikeouts per nine innings. So, you know, he's still, even in a down year, he was still an elite bat misser.

All right, Jeremy says, you guys have talked a lot about Billy Hamilton this offseason. I'm starting to buy the hype. I mean, Heath has him as a sleeper. I don't know how Scott feels about Billy Hamilton. The problem is my main league uses OPS as a rhodo category. How do you change Billy Hamilton's value in an OPS league? This 250 average is salvageable, but is 600 OPS is harder to swallow. Yeah, so OPS instead of batting average?

Yeah, I mean, that's the thing. If it's OPS instead of home runs, it's probably not a difference. If it's OPS instead of batting average, it's a big difference. It's kind of rewarding power twice, which is unfortunate. The main thing about Billy Hamilton is you can get. him in round 1314 now and you know it was always known he was only going to give you steals but he used to be drafted in round four for that you know which was crazy i thought but now the price tag seems perfectly reasonable for somebody who's likely to carry you in that scarce category

i think though it would depend on if this is a five outfielder or a three outfielder league if you're sacrificing that many categories with one of just three outfield spots fewer opportunities to make up throughout the rest of your lineup that is pretty hard to swallow but if it's five outfield spots that is going rate I think

you know it just depends on the way your draft unfolds too if you take care of steals early it's not like you need that many to be competitive in the category then there's no reason to bother with Hamilton but if you're at that stage of the draft around 12 through 14 range and you don't have any steals yet.

Hamilton is still probably the perfect pick if it's a five outfielder league. Right, makes sense, makes sense. Next email we got is Mike. He is from Heath's favorite Midwestern city known for great beer. That is something that Scott and I would not be able to comment on.

We do not know cities that are known for great beer. He says, hey, Paul, Robin, Raleigh, and Bernie. Those sound like brewers. They are. Yeah. Bernie is the mascot. Mascott.

Was Raleigh Fingers on the Brewers? He was. Oh, okay. Okay, here's the question. Every year we debate on changing our categories to fit the modern era of baseball. Looking for suggestions on which categories we should go with. Many league members believe that our pitching categories

make it advantageous to just draft offense. Here are our categories. Average home runs, RBIs, runs, steals. also total bases and OPS Pitching wins, ERA, strikeouts, quality starts,

whip and saves. So that looks like a 7 by 6 league. Yeah. Total base and OPS is a little repetitive to me. What do you think? Yeah, I mean OPS, get rid of OPS. I don't mind total.

bases as much if you're you're kind of rewarding doubles in a way that the standard 5 by 5 leak doesn't

but OPS you're factoring an average twice you're factoring in home runs twice you're factoring in total bases twice

you are getting some impact from walks there that you wouldn't normally get but you know I might be

more inclined to um go with on base percentage instead of batting average and just eliminate OPS and then you're going six by six.

Yeah, but if you do on base percentage instead of batting it, okay, get rid of OPS. That's step number one. Number two, I would keep batting average because walks factor into total bases, right? Gosh, I'm actually not sure about that. You may be right. I don't know enough about the total basis. All right, well, that's it. If total bases count walks, then I'd stick with batting average.

If total bases don't count walks, go to OBP. Get rid of OPS and you're good at hitting. in terms of pitching. Well, I mean, part of the problem with pitching is there's already a category that starting pitchers are of no use to, and that saves. You don't really have that among the hitting categories, which is partially why in standard 5 by 5 it leans more toward hitting 2. You're adding an extra category, 7 by 6, and then it's really 7 by 5 in terms of numbers

that a starting pitcher can contribute to. So I totally understand why I would have that impact. I think if you're cutting down one of those offensive categories, though, and making it six by six, you're at least back more in line with the standard Roto League, which, again, still favors hitting, but not so drastically. I have a league that's seven by seven. It's average OBP, home runs, RBIs runs, steals, and total bases. and the pitching categories are

wins and quality starts, ERA whip, saves, strikeouts, and K-per-9. So we actually have a pretty good balance of stats that relief pitchers are great at and stats that starting pitchers are better at. The league works pretty well.

I mean, the categories don't necessarily. necessarily make a ton of sense. But when you have so many categories, like I actually like it. First of all, it takes some pressure off with steals. You could lose steals and still be okay in six other categories instead of four. I like my 7 by 7,

but I think in your case, Mike, it's pretty easy to go to 6x, get rid of OPS, and then figure out batting average in total bases. All right, Scott's... By the way, only hits count toward total bases. Okay. Then do OBP.

Caleb and Louisville. Pueig, Kemp, Wood, and Roark. Those are reds. New Reds. They are reds. They're new Reds. All new Reds. Keeper question. Twelve team head-to-head categories league. We can keep six players. I need to choose two of these four. He already has Jose Ramirez, Jose Altovae, Juan Soto, and Jacob.

All of their names start with Jay. Jose, Jose, Juan, and Jacob. Only one of them is pronounced with a J. All right, so pick two, Scott. Carrasco in the third. Paxon in the sixth. Suarez in the 14th and Trinanin in the 11th. I will go with Swares and Trinan. Okay. I don't think Carasco in round three or Paxon

in round six is much of a discount at all. If it is, if you won. This is from Wilson. Hey, Jeff, Tim and Yvonne. Jeff Tim, Yvonne. Could be Ivan. I'm thinking it's Yvonne. Yeah, I don't know. Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Yvonne Rodriguez. Oh, all inducted in the same class.

All right. Wilson says, after the thrashing of the Giants and the team-by-team preview, nothing was said about Derek Rodriguez. What do you think of the son of Pudge Rodriguez? And should he be taken before or after Derek Holland? I think he should be taken before Derek Holland, I think he should be taken before Derek Holland, I guess, because there's just that chance that there's. something I'm missing in his profile that led him to have such success last year. But by the looks of it to me, Derek Rodriguez was one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball last year.

Yeah, he's so lucky. Yeah, low strikeout rate, low babbip in a way that's not supported by the bat of ball profile, a lot of hard contact too. And, you know, I'd start him at home runs with the fly ball rate. Park helps a lot. And maybe that's, maybe it helps more than any of us. realize and he can do something similar again, but I'm not betting on it. This is from, I don't have a name on this one, but it's about Chance Cisco, Scott.

Could Chance Cisco be a catcher sleeper? I mean, the opportunity's there for him to play, and it was just a couple years ago. He was considered one of the top catching prospects. It has not shown much in the majors at all. And even when he was a prospect, it was mostly built on batting average. and that's unless you have a low strikeout rate that's that's a skill that is

it's very hard to to trust to continue between levels like that a lot has to go right when you're striking out as much as he does Chan Sisko is an Orioles catcher who batted 181 last year with two home runs and 160 at bats and that is going to do it for today's episode

of fantasy baseball today Get ready for our second base preview We're going to come at you with that on tomorrow's show Scott will definitely be there We'll try to get Heath on as well And more of your emails probably on Thursday Or we might sneak another position preview in Thursday And then we'll definitely do one on Friday

Thanks a lot to Scott White Thank you all for listening. I'm Adam Azer We'll talk to you on Wednesday