Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/22 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: MLB News & Mailbag!

Episode Date: February 22, 2018

Catching up on what we've missed over the last few days, we'll discuss the big news around MLB after starting with some talk about holds, waiting until Round 7 to take a SP and how to evaluate advanced stats ... All of the news you need to know including the suspension of an elite prospect, an update on Miguel Sano, everything TB is doing and more ... Thoughts on Jose Quintana, Joey Gallo and players you can take late that could end up being surprising studs ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Do not. That's just under podcast sounds. The host of this podcast is going to sound a little different, maybe a little deeper voice, because it's not Adam Azer. Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. I'm Chris Towers here with Heath Cummings. Hi, Heath. Hi, Chris.

Thanks for the enthusiasm. I thought you were doing Adam. I was going to do you. I'm always enthusiastic. I don't know what you're doing. Scott. Are you sure your voice is deeper than Adams? Especially considering Adam, like, are you?

artificially deepens it, right? We've revealed that before. Whether it is or not, I like to think it is. I don't know why it matters to you. You know, it doesn't. So we are in the midst of our position preview podcasts. If you have not listened, we've done what starting? No, we've done relief pitcher-catcher and first base.

Go back and make sure you listen to those. We'll probably move our way through the rest of the infield and the rest of the positional spectrum. moving forward, but today we're just going to do emails. We're going to catch up on a lot of news over the last few days, including over the weekend that we haven't gotten to yet. And we're going to do more of your emails. So we'll start with an email from Scott, not Scott White.

I listened to the RP preview podcast and was disappointed. There was no discussion of holds. I play in a head-to-head categories league with saves plus holds as a category. Where should guys like Miller, Archie Bradley, Delon Patantis go relative to the top. close ears Heath. Hold my hand.

He wants us to hold his hand. Sure. In this category. And I am happy to do it. This podcast is going off the rails already. This is absolutely an area where we could do a better job. I, am I, is it wrong to say,

Scott gives the shoulder shrug because it's not a traditional fantasy baseball category. No, I just think it's, I just think it's go ahead and finish your point. There's no argument that Andrew Miller is. basically an elite reliever if we're counting holds, right? I'm looking at the holds for the problem. He was among the leaders in holds last season. He was tied for second. But the leader in holds only had 30.

The leader in saves, or number two had 29. Andrew Miller was actually tied for third. Sorry, he had 27. So you're not going to get as big an impact from those guys, although Andrew Miller probably saved like seven or eight games last year. The difference with Andrew Miller is, yes, I think that's accurate. Maybe only five. I think the difference with Andrew Miller is he is as good as any reliever in all the other categories.

He takes a huge hit because he doesn't get the saves. He only had two saves last year. And what, five wins? Four wins. I'm going to go out on a limb right now and say the way that Andrew Miller is used, the combination of hold saves and wins that we saw last year should be higher next year. I don't think that it should be normal for him to be that low. Yeah, I mean, because Andrew Miller specifically is a pitcher who we already regard as mixed league relevant, certainly in categories leagues, regardless of whether or not he's getting credits for saves or holds.

You know, the idea that he would at least get two-thirds of the way to what a closer would get in a saves plus holds category makes him potentially top 12. I think I would put him forth. I don't know. Here's the thing about holds, though. Did you mention who led the majors in holds last year? Taylor Rogers. Taylor Rogers with 30. Did you mention who was second?

Nick Vincent with 29. Names, we've probably never talked. about on the podcast before. And between 20 and 30, so just a span of 10 holds there. So, you know, much shorter range than you see, much smaller range than you see in saves. There are 33 relievers last year between 20 and 30 holds. That's a lot. I would venture to say most of them were relievers we didn't even expect to be good at the

start of the season. How many of them were actually good? I would say the point is probably that you shouldn't change things all that much, but what it does do is makes, I think it flattens the playing field at reliever. It makes the elite closers probably a little less valuable relative to the group. It also means that there are more valuable. It makes, you know, a non-closure that we talk about pretty regularly is someone like Kyle Barraclaw, who we think could have a chance to get the closers role, but also had

22 holds last season, should put up a lot of strikeouts, should have pretty good rates. those are the guys who get a little more value. I don't think you go out targeting holds. I think in this instance, you just target good relievers, and they should get hold, you would think. Particularly if they're expected to work the eighth inning. Right. Guys like Patensis.

Carl Edwards Jr. Yes. Probably. I'm not 100% sure if he or Cich will be the eighth inning guy. But you still get a hold in the seventh inning. Yes, that's true. But I don't even know, like, I don't even know that, unless it's Andrew Miller or maybe Patancis, I don't know that it's worth specifically targeting anybody because, you know, Anthony Swarczak, Pedro, no, who was the guy for the Cardinals last year. Okay, fine.

If it's not, if it's not worth, I'm still moving those guys like Patancis up ahead of the bad closeness. Yes. Yeah, okay. That's fair. So, like, we get... Tommy Hunter, that's one. We get past really, probably Hector Neris. I think you can treat those guys like you would if they were closers.

Like, like Calvin Herrera, like Brad Brock. Yeah. And maybe Brock actually is a guy that would get a bump because he is someone that's going to start the year as a closer. We're worried is going to lose his job when Brin comes back. And he will be something all year. And we know he's good. So maybe I would move Brock up ahead of the guys like... And same for tomorrow.

I'd probably move him up. a little bit as well. And you can give, we're probably spending a little too much time, but like guys who you think are good who also have a chance to get saves, you should bump up. Caraccio, that's who I was thinking of Juan Acacia. Juan Acacia. All right.

B. Rye, email, Dear Mike Cracken and Aaron, I guess Aaron Judge doesn't get a nickname. I draft 12th in a 12-te-6-by-6 head-to-head categories league. What are your thoughts on loading up on reliable hitters? talking five of the first six picks, taking Kimbril or Jansen in that group and then using seven and eight for starting pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka, Kyle Hendrix, or Lance McCullors, John Lester? Is that waiting too long on starting pitcher? Or is that fine considering it would leave me with a lineup, something like Bryant,

Correa, Posey, Gordon, Gallich with an elite closer? I like it a lot. I like it a whole lot. This was definitely my go-to strategy before this season. I don't dislike it this year. Well, it was your go-to strategy without the closer, right? You weren't taking a closer in the top five or six rounds. I've taken closers that high before.

I think part of the problem, though, is that you have to take an elite closer in, like, the third or fourth round these days. And that's, that's, especially if you want Kenley Jansen. You can, yes. Why wouldn't you rather take an elite starting pitcher there? That's what I don't understand. And I don't understand what, like, in a categories league specifically, why Posey, if you're already getting like D. Gordon,

I mean Christian Yelich, like I don't know it's enough of the category hand out that I'd want to sacrifice a pitcher with that pick. It depends. The argument has always been just that pitchers get hurt. Just that they get hurt more often that they're more fungible assets.

They're just, they're harder predict on a year-to-year basis, so it's... That had been the argument, but, and they're still hard to predict, I guess, on the top end, but you're pretty sure the low-end. end guys aren't going to become top end guys.

Right, but you look at the non-elite starting pitchers. We assume Madison Baumgart is fine because the shoulder injury wasn't related to throwing and because he came back and looked okay. But he's coming back from a major shoulder injury. Steven Strasbourg could get hurt on April 15th. Noah Cindergarde might not make it to April 15th. Carl's Carrasco is not that risky except last year was his first season with a of 185 innings, I think.

Louis Severino, same thing. Those two closers are more reliable than the pitchers you draft in the same range. They have been, but I mean, Craig Kimball wasn't two years ago. Like, their closers get hurt too. They do. I like this strategy. A Roll-dis Chapman wasn't last year. I think that the Posey, Yelich, adding those guys in, like, you've got five or six

really good hitters like that. your batting average is going to be quite a ways ahead of people, and you can afford to just take specialists in the later rounds as well. Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point. I like it, but I understand why Scott doesn't. We will never agree on this strategy in Roto. Also, it would help to know what the extra categories are.

Like, if the extra categories are quality starts, then no, I'm probably not doing this. Because that's another starting pitcher category. All right, we've got an email from Michael. If Matt Olson, Greg Bird, Joey Gallo, and Reese Hoskins have their best-case scenario seasons, how would you rank them? So we're just looking strictly at ceiling here. Which I think you should mostly do in Roto. I think Reese Hoskins has the highest ceiling. I agree.

I think Joey Gallo has the most outstanding singular tool. But I'd probably put them last in ceiling because the batting average ceiling is so low. I think the bad average ceiling is still too. which is 250? I was going to say 240. Yeah, I did this exercise yesterday with just assume it. Just kind of, Heath didn't like it very much. But it was just trying to take home runs, strikeout rate, Babip,

looking at what a player's reasonable range as I view it. And I came up with a ceiling of about 240 for Joey Gallas batting average. That's enough for me to put him last at this group. I'd probably put Greg Byrd second. considering the lineup he's in and as much as he walks. We talk about how hitters can't win you home runs. I'm not so sure that Joey Gallo's ceiling isn't over 60 home runs. Yeah.

And I'm not saying like I say over 60 just because I don't want to say Joey Gallo's ceiling is breaking the home run record. But in today's offensive environment with his bat, he is one of the two or three most likely hitters to break the home run record if anyone does. So, like, if he gives you 60 home runs, I don't really care if he's hitting 250. You really think he's more likely than Judge Stanton? I think that's where I'd stop. This is the problem. He had a 30% home run to fly ball ratio last season.

He had a 55% fly ball rate. He still only hit 136 fly balls. And now you expect him to get more playing time. Yeah. You've already, I mean, you have been the guys saying he didn't even play a full season. I just, I don't know, like 136 fly balls. I have no context for that. I'm not sure anybody listening.

Is that a high number? Is that a low number? Regardless of what it is relative to other players, once you start looking at, like, let's say he gets 20% more plate appearances and he gets 20% more fly balls. you're still like, there's still, you're getting to like 160 fly balls with a 30% home run to fly ball rate, which he probably can't do that much better than. And all of a sudden, you're like, the ceiling might be 50 home runs just because he doesn't put the ball in play enough, you know? But that's also assuming that he, sure, he might improve the strikeout rate. It's kind of a weird hypothetical because, like, you never go into a season expecting a player to reach his ceiling. Rank Matt Olson, Greg Bird, Joey Gallen, Reese Hoskins, based on their ceiling.

I would say Hoskins Bird, Olson, Gallo. Hoskins... I agree with Hoskins first, Galo. I think I would put birds last, and I think I'd put Gallo ahead of Olson. All right. Jared from the oldest thoroughbred horse race track town in America. St. Augustine. Sure. Hey, Viagra, Viagra, Seales, Stendra, and Lovitra.

Sure. I know what's considered good, average, and bad for all of the traditional stats, but when you're talking advanced stats, this is a good point. And we just saw an example of it just now. Nice segue here. You don't always give context. This is just what you get when you have a good host. I don't know what league averages for stats like ISO, line drive rate, Sierra, and OPS Plus.

It would be helpful to give league average when using these stats in the podcast. Would you like league average for those stats last year? So OPS Plus is 100. it's tuned to be league and park adjusted so that 100 is supposed to be average every year. Sierra is tuned so that it looks like ERA. Right? Yes. But what's average Sierra?

I would guess 3-9? The average Sierra last season was 4.28. Okay. Which is odd because ERA FIPP and X-FIP were all 4.36. Okay. But obviously. If it's, you know, if it's supposed to model ERA, it may not have been tuned. The average ERA is actually a very bad ERA for fantasy purposes.

The average Iso is 171. The average BABIP is almost always around 300. Even with the juice ball. What I would tell, Jared, the only thing I would say in addition to that is that the league average is not always relevant to the player we're talking about. When we talk about guys regressing, we're not always talking to regressing to the league average. We're talking about regressing to what we would expect from a player with their skill set. There are certainly players that are going to really struggle to ever have a 300 bat-bip. There are players that are going to be players that almost always have a bat-bip over 320 or 30 or higher.

Maybe Aaron Judge. Like maybe Aaron Judge. Mike Trout. Mike Trout for sure. D. Gordon, for sure. So you have to look at it in the context of what have a bit of. a player they are with Babbib specifically. And you also have to keep in mind with some of the all-in-one tools like Sierra, like FIP,

they may not have been tuned to adjust for a juiced ball environment, where home runs are more profligate. All right, let's move on to the big news. You guys pretty much covered this during the, we did during the first base podcast, but San Diego signed Eric Hosmer to an eight-year, $144 million deal. Scott, you like Hosmer? more than Heath and I do. None of us likes him enough to really draft him

where you probably need to invest in him, right? Yeah, probably not. I've gotten him in some of our in-house drafts. I've gotten him in one or two of those because there are so many avoiding him. And I don't think going to San Diego really change as much. It's bad hitters environment, but he was already in one. It's a bad lineup, but certainly last year he was already in one.

Pretty much status quo for him. According to Annie McCullough of the Los Angeles Times, Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Tasmania Grandma, also known as Yosmani Grandaul by his given name, appears to be the team's primary catcher. And this is where most of the signs have been pointing in the spring. Scott, I know you're disappointed. The Tasmanian grandma.

I am kind of disappointed. But you can only be so disappointed in Yosmani Grandaal still having an everyday job. Well, it's not an everyday job, first of all. They're saying he's the primary catcher that might be 60% of the time he starts. And it might not last either because, I mean, they kind of tipped their hand in the playoffs last year. They did tip their hand that they, deep down, they prefer Barnes. They prefer Barnes in that moment.

Frontalmay just retired. And there was kind of a suggestion within this article that there, there's financial incentive to give Grandal the majority of the playing time. He's a free agent this offseason, so it keeps his trade value high. It keeps Austin Barnes arbitration value low. And that may be true. Personally, like, I could just be disappointed that, you know, I can't count on Barnes to be my number one catcher in fantasy anymore,

but it's also exciting that I get the chance to draft Barnes is my number two catcher in a two-catcher league now, or for cheaper in a very deep league. Have you moved Yosmani Grandal up since the start of spring training? Yeah, they are now 10th and 11th in my catcher rankings, Grundahl and then Barnes. I have also moved them up in Roto. I have Grandal 12th. I have dropped Barnes to 17th.

Okay. And Daniel Murphy may not be ready for opening day. He's recovering from knee surgery. That's not a great sign. because he is, what, 34 years old? He's old. Yeah, and this could be a, he's not as old as Adrian Belchrey, but we saw Adrian Beltrade, Josh Donaldson, two guys who still produced,

but they had injuries linger throughout the season. How far down have you moved Daniel Murphy down your draft board? He is only 32. He will turn 33 in a month and a half. Wow. I've not yet moved him down my draft board. if two weeks from now he is not doing any participation, then I will drop him.

This is the reason he's behind Brian Dozier in my rankings. This knee, I think it was micro fracture surgery he had. I remember the first mock we did. He went in round five, and I was like, why is he going so late? I've since come around to the idea that, yeah, he probably shouldn't go any earlier than that. And in fact, I'm not, I haven't, I think I drafted him in that draft in round five. I haven't drafted him since because it's not, you know, he's, he's in theory the last of the elite second baseman, a position where there is, one of the few infield positions where there is a severe drop-off in the early rounds.

But I think I might just let somebody else have him. Since ADP Boy is busy doing other things today, I'll just say that his current average draft position is the sixth, second baseman, fifth, because Anthony Rizzo doesn't count, at the just at the 5-6 turn. Barely in front of Jonathan's scope, who is being wildly overdue. I would guess Daniel Murphy probably dropped a bit as we move on, but he could end up being a really nice value. The less big but still kind of big news as Adam Azer

phrased it, Houston's starting pitcher, Forrest Whitley, has been suspended for 50 games for violating the minor league drug program. Forrest Whitley was a sixth round pick in the Dynasty Startup model. draft, Scott White's number 24 fantasy prospect coming into the season. Had you moved him down as a result of this, or is that where he always was? That's where he always was.

That's where I'm inclined to keep him. 50-game suspension in the minor leagues ranks typically means it wasn't performance-enhancing. A couple years ago, 2015, I think, Alex Reyes, who is the name we all know, got a 50-game suspension for testing positive for marijuana. I think he, I saw a report that it was a not a performance enhancing drug. Right. There was like a recreational drug. Right.

Which, you know, if he has a problem, then that's a problem. But we have no reason to believe it was anything like that at this point. And Forrest Whitley really made a name for himself in the prospect game last season. Yep. was a first round pick, 17th overall two years ago. 13.9K per 9, 283RA, moved from low Class A all the way to double A. I think there's a belief among prospect rankers who don't have to give as much credit to proximity as I do, which is why I rank somebody like Brent Honeywell ahead.

But I think there's a belief among the true prospect rankers out there. I'll consider myself a fake one. That's, Whitley's the best pitching prospect of baseball. So the numbers certainly bear that out. Yeah. Minnesota Twins GM, Thad Levine said Miguel Sineau put on weight coming into spring training. Let's be clear. He said he has a, quote, generous carriage, which is one of the all-time great fack-out euphemisms that I've ever heard.

I'm going to refer to myself as a person who has a generous carriage from now on. So just a heads up. Yeah, I thought it was nice. Recovering from off-season surgery to repair, I believe, a stress fracture in his shin. That is certainly a concern for someone who's overweight. Now, the overweight factor is partially the result of undergoing off-season surgery. He couldn't put any weight on the leg. But this is someone who...

Not in the best shape of his life. Not in the best shape of his life. I'm not sure when he's been in the best shape of his life. of his life. Miguel Seno has always been a bigger guy. It hasn't really hampered him to this point, but, you know, has had a little bit of trouble staying healthy in the majors.

He's had a little bit of trouble with consistency. And has some question marks in terms of his availability for this full season. Has some question marks about his availability. Has some question marks about his ability to play the field. And has some question marks, and I know Chris hates this, but he's one of those players

who gets a reputation of not making baseball his top priority. Sure. Which is difficult to do at the Major League level. There are a lot of red flags with Miguel Seno. He's facing off-field investigations about an assault charge. So there are a lot of red flags about McGal-Seneau coming into the season for fantasy purposes. Are you moving him down at this point?

I'm not moving him down because I was factoring in a lot of these things already. I haven't even come close to drafting him yet, and I don't expect. I will. He's somebody I don't want. I don't think the, particularly in the current environment where power is so prevalent and power is, I guess he has some on base ability, but otherwise power is the only thing he really provides. Like, risk doesn't seem worth the reward. I am moving him down a little bit. I did not expect him to show up to camp overweight. I guess my struggle, and I've been pretty clear and wrote about this just yesterday that in Roto, I am really just interested in upside

because I don't have any interest in being in fifth or sixth place in August because you're basically done. And Sano does have huge upside still. And his ADP right now is 113 overall. Thank you, A DAP. So yes or Sanoa at that price? Given what we've heard, I lean towards no. So no.

So no. Yes. I am dropping him below that in my rankings. I am dropping him to 13th at third base in Roto. The area where I can't drop him to or past is the Kyle Seeger, Mike Mustakis, group. Because I don't like, if I have those guys on my team, whatever, I can find that production. You can find 38 home runs? He's not hitting 38 home runs this year.

He might have been playing April. I mean, might hit 50 if he plays in the Yankee State. Talk about a guy that's not in the best of life. He's not even on a team. Get him in Yankee State. Come on. You don't need to save a spot for Glaber Torres. Who's Brandon Drury?

How many home runs did he hit last year? Some other news. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are lowering the wall in right field by 10 feet. They had an 18-foot wall that extended almost from the foul pole to roughly center-right-center. Would that be the way to the right way to phrase it? Center-right center, I think, yes. Not like, yes, most of Wrightfield. Conspiracy theory time.

Heath, I know you love conspiracy theory. I do, very much. This was the reason Shohei Otani signed. I had that thought as well. He was only going to sign there if they lowered the wall. Otherwise. He saw that. He's like, I can't do this.

He's got to get rid of this. Okay, well, I've got a question for you then. Okay. That I think is interesting. Does this, because personally, I think this probably hurts Otani's value more than it helps it. Because he's a pitcher. Because he's a pitcher. His hitting is not something I was in a daily transaction league, sure.

I would definitely have interest in him as a hitter. In a weekly transaction league, or weekly lineup league, I have almost zero interest in him as a hitter. So this is a negative. Does this boost anyone for the angels in your eyes? Cole Calford. Okay. He's their one left-handed everyday hitter with some pop. And there have been some studies, and I have no one to credit for them because I have not been able to find out who did it.

And that also tells you that you should maybe take it with a grain assault, that it could give him four to seven more home runs. That's a big increase. It seems high to me. Yeah, it sounds pretty high. But I don't know how many balls he had off that wall. It's entirely possible. All right, we got some Tampa Bay.

Ray's news. Let's move through this stuff a little quicker. Tampa Bay acquired C.J. Cron for the Angels for a player to be named later and DFAid Corey Dickerson. any interesting C.J. Crone outside of A.L. Only leagues. He's in my top 300 now in Roto, but, you know, probably not to the point that you're drafting him as any more than a bench player.

I think he's going to play a lot more for Tampa than he ever did for the Angels, who always seemed, Mike Soch always seemed reluctant to use him as a full-time player, even though he's not good. Tended to perform. He's not good. Slightly about everything. I mean, C.J. Crohn's not good. I think he's better than, like, Ryan Healy.

You know? I would be shocked if C.J. C.J. Cron had a season as good as Ryan Healy did last year. I will say this about C.J. Crone, I think he is a placeholder. Okay. For like Jake Bowers? There's a good chance of that. I think he will play more than he ever played in Anaheim for all of about six weeks. And then they're going to start calling people up because they're cheap and they don't want to lose the air control of them. Yeah, we'll get to that. The other impacts of that. They also signed Carlos Gomez. I think that's the much more interesting fantasy.

outcome he's had trouble staying healthy over the last few years was really bad in about 125 games with the Houston Astros but otherwise has just been Carlos Gomez his season with the Rangers last year was really quite good I don't know I don't know that I go that far I did not move him into my top 300 so I can't make sense of that he's going to play every day who

Carlos is he going to play every day I question that why wouldn't he Okay, he's going to play every day for how long? I mean, we think the same thing. But we're talking relative here because there are other guys that we don't think we'll have an everyday role for the entire season that we've moved up. If we're moving C.J. Krona, Carlos Gomez, 105 games last year, hits 17 home runs, 13 stolen bases.

The year before, 13 home runs, 18 stolen bases. He's not going to help you in batting average, but... He's going to hurt you. I mean, if he hits 255, he's not going to hurt you that much. They still have... have a lot of players. How many out? I mean, they have Malik Smith.

They have Kevin Kiermar. Okay. Who's currently projected to be their leadoff hitter. Sure. But I think he's going to play D.H. You've got your boy, Ryan Schimpth. Yeah, he's not going to play the outfield. He could be in the D.H mix.

He could be. He could also play third. He could also play third. I guess, though, like... I mean, power speed combos are rare, and this guy has 20-20 potential if he plays out every day. I suppose he does with a low batting average, probably, and it's a big if. So, you know, how much are you valuing... Oh, man, I'm not good at these examples off the top of my head.

In Roto, we'd rather have Cameron Mabit than Carlos Gomez. Carlos Gomez hit for a higher batting average in C.J. Crone last year. Yes, but I do think Cron has higher batting average potential. Like it was Cron hit 280 almost in 2016. Over the last four seasons, he's had a batting average. And I think he has more power than Gomez. The bottom line is I think Gomez is pretty much done, and I would be surprised if he gets even 400 of bats.

And Tampa Bay acquired Anthony Banda from Arizona. Is he someone anyone needs to know about Scott? He could be in their rotation at some point. point this year. It's a pretty good prospect. Not a great prospect. Say that a lonely guy? Yeah.

Nick Solac, anyone we need to worry about? How about Stephen Susan, Arizona? Yuck. He's the Stephen Susan guy. I'm worried about him. It's funny where he's going from Tampa Bay to Arizona. Normally think that it's great for hitters' value, but now it seems like potentially a disaster.

I would guess it's probably, like Tampa Bay is one of the worst hitting parks in baseball. Like, one of the three worst hitting parks in baseball. Would you call it one of the three worst hitting parks in baseball? Well, I'm not sure it'd be in my bottom five. I think that's what it's been. I think we should talk about... Especially for power. The history of it and not the...

Not the what we think. Yeah, I'm pretty sure the Park Factor's rated as one of the worst, especially for power. Park Factor had it ranked in a huge tie for sixth overall with... Sixth best? Sixth worst. Yes. But not bottom three. Mm-hmm.

But I think for power, it probably... is bottom three. In 2017, it was tied with San Diego for eight. So, like, Arizona might be just a barren wasteland for power, but... That's my fear. But, like, we're not sure yet. We know Tampa Bay is a bad place. Yeah, but are you going to stick your neck out for Stephen Susan? My expectation is that I have no expectation of Steven Susan getting an environmental impact.

in this move. That it will be very similar to where he was. Like, the difference in the part factor. What's that? He's being drafted 184th. The price is very low. For a guy who can, who hit 30 homers and stole 15 bases last season.

Yes. The price is very low. I'm a little, they have way too many guys. They have way too many guys. I just think Yasmani Tomas isn't going to play. He's not good. I don't necessarily agree that he's just,

not good, but they could decide to just not play him. I would like, they do have too many guys. I don't think Steven Seuss is going to be the one who suffers from that. Like he and A.J. Pollock are the best of the guys in the outfield. All right. Let's move through the last bit of news. Miami signed Cameron Mabin. This is actually pretty interesting.

He should be inside your top 276, right? Yes. For Roto, right? In Roto, yeah. He should be drafted and started in Roto. He was on a 40-plus steel pace last season. Let's hope the Marlins let him run wild. I feel like to generate offense, they'll need him to.

I feel like considering that's what he's good at, why wouldn't they ask him to? Yeah, he's up there with, like, Delano DeShields for me, those late-round steel specialists. Also, Malick Smith moving up there with Stephen Sousa and Corey Dickerson. We didn't even really get into Cory Dickerson DFA. That was the shocker, right? We just, yeah, we just don't know where he's going to play until we do. I lower the memory rankings a lot because they DFAed him because they couldn't find a trade partner, which has me wondering if he's going to land a full-time job anywhere.

All right, Alex Wood will pitch exclusively out of the stretch. Yes. We'll see if it works for him. Ban the wind up. Arizona signed Jared Dyson, another guy who could be a late-round source of steals. I would guess he doesn't play every day, though. Not now. Baltimore signed Chris Tillman to.

a one-year $3 million deal was a disaster. Barely pitched last year, right? Just couldn't get healthy. Oh, he pitched a lot. It was... But, yeah, he was dealing with issues all season and was terrible. He barely pitched because he got pulled in the third inning ever. Yeah, that's right.

He made 24 appearances, 784 E.R. Chris Tillman in 2016, had like an ugly R.A., but I remember Heath, you'd cited this a bunch that it was mostly against Toronto. Yes? I feel like... 2016? Maybe 2015. I think that was 2015, and I was right.

It dropped down under 3-7-7. So he could be mixed league relevant, but not someone you need to draft. Aaron Boone said the Yankees will be careful with Luis Severino, but there is no innings restriction. That makes sense because he didn't really have that big of an innings jump last season from his career high. Cincinnati has Nick Senzel playing shortstop and third base in spring training. He's not expected to join the Major League roster to start the season, right? Not to start the season.

I would expect him up at some point. this year and they're going to have to figure out what to do about that because Suarez is pretty good. I actually thought second base was more in the works than shortstop, but maybe this is maybe this is a reason to believe they like Scooter Genet a lot too.

Cincinnati will also be using a four-man rotation in the outfield with Jesse Winker. I think Billy Hamilton is expected to play mostly in center field. Adam Duvall is expected to play mostly in left field. And so it's going to be

finding time for Scott Shebler and Jesse Winker kind of knocked all of them down, right? At least to start. Again, like, what else were they going to do? It was kind of expected. And I think Winker is the best, I think Winker is their best outfielder. So, you know, if I thought Winker was going to be

an everyday player from the get-go, he might be in my top 40. He's only in my top 60 because he's going to have to earn it. But I think he will. I think he's going to be the Red's second-best hitter this year. And Nick Senzel, whenever he's up, he's got Alex Bregman potential. It has like 30 stolen bases in 190 career minor league games. When Alex Bregman's done or whatever he thinks Alex Bregman's point.

What everybody thinks Alex Bregman's potential is. And the Twins acquired Jake Oterrezy from Tampa Bay for infielder Jermaine Palacios. Jake Oterreasy is not someone who benefited from Tampa Bay being a tough place to hit last season. He was terrible. Right. He was terrible everywhere. He definitely benefited from Tampa Bay. He has been like a half run better.

I think he was a half run better last year. Was he really? I thought he was really bad at home last year. He has been considerably better over his career. His career, R.R.A. is right around, I think, let me just pulled up right here so I don't give a fake number. You know, we like to be very precise on this podcast. Yeah, I'm, there are a lot of people that seem to think that Tampa Bay's approach with pitchers. Yes.

A lot of high. negative impact on O'Dorese. A lot of high fastballs. That's been their organizational philosophy to try to counteract the upper cut swings that a lot of headers are using. It's not working. His career ERA at home is 3.40. Very good pitcher. His career rode ERA is 435.

Not that good. Not like with his. Did you move Jake Oter EZee down? I left him in basically the same place because the one good thing for Jake Oter Eazy is his win. potential goes up considerably. He's not on the terrible raise, or as Scott likes to call them the contenders. People listening have no concept for that. What are you talking about?

CJ Crow and MVP season, here we go. And actually, you are correct. He had a 427 home area last year. It was the first year. He did not have any array below 4. See? Told you. See, when I say you are correct, there's no need for you to say C, I told you.

Yeah. All right, let's get back to some emails to close out the show. CBS Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the email address. You missed one more piece of news. Alex Cora has said that Hanley Ramirez is currently his number three hitter. Moogie Betts, Ben Intendi, Hanley, J.D. Martinez. All right. Some folks on Twitter pointed out to me.

The emphasis was on currently, and J.D. Martinez isn't officially a red side yet. That was what people were saying. But he cited J.D. Martinez as the number four? No. No. Okay. That's he said. So, I mean, do we expect Hanley to play first base every day?

That's the only spot right now, right? He would have to, yeah. I don't expect him to play first base every day, no. Cora has talked about how he wants to get guys regular rest. And with having Eduardo Nunez, Morland, and Hanley, that's easy to do. So I would expect he's going to be there. opening day for a Spaceman. Yeah.

I would expect he's going to be towards the middle of their lineup opening day. He's in the best shape of his life. And it may be, like, if he is hitting between Betzben and Tendi and Martinez, like, that's a good thing for him. Like, maybe. Fabulous late-round pick. Maybe it's a plan.

Maybe it's a strategy to try and, you know, get the best out of him, which, you know, that's the manager should do. Fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Jamie in Baltimore was hoping you could address a rankings disparity. Looking at your rankings, he's trying to figure out what justifies the disparity, 30 plus spots in pitchers like Sunny Gray and Jose Cantana versus Lance Lynn and Drew Pomerantz. Can you tell me why you would draft Gray and Cantana so much earlier? In a standard team, in a standard 12 team, Roto League with a conventional scoring categories,

what makes them so better than Lynn and Pomerans? Oh, gosh. Well, Lynn. Lynn should be easy, so I'm not even going to address it. He doesn't have a team, and he may not. He was awful last year. He was not awful last year. His results were very good.

His peripherals were disastrous. He had a lot more homers than he usually does, and it would have played at his step. He had a 244 Babbup against, and he had a 79% strand rate. And, yes, he did give up one. 1.3 home runs per night. Yeah. But maybe he will continue to do that. I don't know.

But to me, it should be just the 7.4K per 9. It should be obvious why Lynn is worse than K-Tana and Sunny Gray. So, Pomeran's had a similar K rate. My issue with Pomerans is that the Red Sox employee am like a fifth starter. Like five, maybe six innings. He's not going to give you the length of certainly Kintana. Now, Sunny Gray kind of had that issue after going to the Yankees, too. And, you know...

May have it this year. It may be a problem. I may have Gray overranked because of that. But I think he's a better pitcher in terms of WIP potential. And I think he's a better pitcher in terms of how the Yankees bullpen is going to preserve the leads that he gives them. And hopefully more wins that way. Yeah, I will stump for Jose Cantana because he is a guy that, for like six years now.

We've talked about how he should win more games, and he really never has. He had 12 one year, but that's still... Last year, he was really pretty good and had some bad luck. He was at least as good as he's been for most of his career. I would really expect him to get right back to 200 innings this year. I would expect him, Jose Cantana should win 15 games.

Let's make it happen. Could get 230 strikeouts if he sustains the strikeout rate from last season. There's a lot to like about Jose Cantana. And to further distinguish Gray from Pomeran's, like, Gray has been that innings eater in the past. He's been a Cy Young runner up in the past. Pomeranz has never given any team he's pitch for that kind of link. So, like, I just don't think he has it in it. All right, Matt from Milwaukee, Dear Lucky, Captain, Tony, and Tricks. Three good cereals and Trash. Which one's the trash? You know which one's the trash.

I don't know which one's the trash. Tell me which one's the trash. Tricks? Captain Crunch? Get out of town. That's the best of them. Yeah, that's trash. Which one's tricks? That's ridiculous.

What? Which one's tricks? The little... Those are... No, they're fruit shaped. What? Oh, there's tricks. Yeah.

Yeah. There's two different things. There's, like, plain tricks that are just like little orange puff balls, which are gross. They're better than Captain Crunch. I don't like Frostaflakes either. You're thinking of kicks, Chris. You're thinking of kicks, Chris. Not tricks.

All right. Matt from Milwaukee, I'm in a 12-team categories mixed league. He's drafting 11th. From what he's seen so far, it looks like he'll have the choice of Kluber, Scherzer, Bryant, and Machado. How worthwhile is it to draft Chris Bryant and then Machado on the turn? So one thing to keep in mind is for the first week of the season, Mani Machado will have to go in your corner infield spot, not your shortstop spot. Well, and we don't know for sure.

We're, oh. Okay. I feel better now. I didn't see the categories word. I saw 12-team mixed league. Okay. And I did not know for sure that it was a category. I would get one of the Aces personally.

Yeah, I haven't been drafting that way in Mox, but I've been consistently disappointed enough in my pitching that I think it's time to start doing that. If you pick in the back half of a standard 12-team draft, you want to come out of it with one of the Aces. It doesn't necessarily have to be your first pick. I don't know that there's a big difference between Scherzer and Kluber. I actually like Kluber a little more. So, you know, waiting until your second pick to take him and then taking your favorite hitter of the two, which I think would be Bryant for me.

That's probably what I'd do. Scott, do you want to share your current dilemma? What in? The dilemma has been resolved. In Tow Wars? Yeah, but your thought on it. I don't know that I want to get my strategy. It's relevant to this discussion.

No, I'm just kidding. Because. Tao Wars is a 15-team true Roto League, right? Yes, yes. I mean, there are, I mean, I'm sure a lot of people listening have heard of Tout Wars. It's one of the more well-known industry leagues. And there are different versions of it. I am in the draft version of Tout Wars. Most of them are auctions. So yesterday we were picking our, where we're going to pick in the 15 team draft. Based on how we finished last year, I was second. So I picked second. The guy who finished first, pick first one of Mike Trout, obviously. my initial thought was, okay, well, Jose Altuva, that's pretty clear number two. Maybe I should just go ahead and take him. But a couple reasons why I decided not to. First, Tau Wars uses OBP instead of batting average.

It's the only way it's different from traditional rhodo scoring. And while Jose Altuve is still elite in OBP, he is not on an island like he is with batting average. A lot of the hitters who you could get early in the second round are going to have a similar OBP. So I decided to pick 12th, and the reason I decided that is because especially since it's a 15-team league, I want one of those four super-aces. And I don't know, like, if I'd picked 15th, seemed like there was a reasonable chance, I would get none of them. So 12th, I wanted to pick there. I think one of the four are probably sure Zer or a Kluber is still going to be there for sure. And then it would mean my second round pick is 19th.

And in that format, I feel like there are 19 first round caliber players. Somebody like Anthony Rizzo, let's say, I get him. He's going to have a 390 OBP himself and give you 30 home runs. So I'd be fine with him as my top hitter in the second round. You know, Aaron Judge might be there. Maybe it's Carlos Correa or even like Chris Bryant doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility. So that's my plan. I really wanted an ace, and I knew if I was going to just accept the second pick, except Jose Al-Tuvae, I wasn't going to get one of those four aces.

All right. Josh writes in, Hey, Team Crot and Heatham? Had them? I don't know. Ham. We're going ham. Ham. Okay.

The Joey Gallo hype train is gaining speed. Can you please make a case for why he won't turn into 2017? Chris Carter and give a rough guesstimate of what to expect. We kind of talked about this a little bit earlier, but he is a player who has the potential for a really low floor. We saw last year before he got hot in the second half, they weren't willing to play him every day

when they had Adrian Beltray healthy. Now, I don't know if that will be the same case this year because I just, I don't know if they have the horses to take Joey Gallo out of the lineup every day. the option would be Ryan Rua or Jerks and ProFar. Yeah, they're saying he's the everyday first baseman. Now, if it comes out of the gate hitting 150 over three weeks,

which is certainly possible, would they change their minds? I don't know. When you established his floor and ceiling last night on Twitter, his ceiling and batting averages, or floor in batting averages, what he did last year, right? It was a little lower.

He had 209 last year. I think I had him at like 202. Yeah, I, like, could he turn into 2017, Chris Carter? I don't really think so. Is he Chris Carter-esque? Yes.

But, man, he just hits the crap out of the ball. And I do agree with Chris's assessment that last year was pretty close to his floor in terms of average. Yeah, I mean, he's going to be a low babbip guy. But $250, I think, is where he was last year. That might be a little. Steamer has him as a 285 babbip going. into this year with 227 average and 38 home runs. I do worry that 285 might be closer to his Babbitt ceiling just because of the Badaball profile.

Well, they probably didn't use a process quite as robust as yours to determine it. Well, they're regressing more towards league average without taking into account the skill set. John writes in, hey, Michael, Dwayne, and Jim, I noticed on the updated rankings that Colton Wong is ranked in the mid-30s, while John has him closer to the early 20s in a 12-te-to-head league, is Colton Wong worthy of a late-round pick, or is it better to wait and see how his first month or two is? As a point of reference, he seemed to revert back to his 2015 form in the last half of 2017.

I'm not seeing what he really is good at, other than maybe getting on base at an above-average clip. He's kind of like a poor man, Cesar Hernandez, I guess, who himself is a late-round pick. And that's if Colton Wong plays every day, which, seeing as he's a left-handed batter and they have a bit of an infield playing time crunch there, they've talked about Matt Carpenter playing some second base this year. It wouldn't surprise me if it becomes basically a Colton Wong Jose Martinez platoon, where Matt Carpenter moves over from first to second, and Martinez comes in against left-handed pitchers, in which case Wong clearly isn't mixed-leap material. And even as a full-timer, I'm not sure he is. I think in a head-to-head league where you don't have a middle infield spot,

I don't think Colton Wong is worth draft. I agree with that. I do think in Roto where you have a middle infield spot, there's nothing wrong with taking a shot on him late in the draft. There's so many other middle infielders I'd rather do. I'm not even going to address the joke. There's so many infielders I'd rather do that with, though. Like, I mean, Jed Lowry was actually a good fantasy contributor,

last year, and he's going widely undrafted. Like, I don't, I don't see how Colton Wong's upside is higher than Jeff Lowry. I'd rather have Cesar Hernandez. Sure, definitely. He's probably going to hit for, like, Colton Wong's best asset is probably batting average. Sandra Hernandez hit 294 each of the last two seasons. He's, like, 288, the last three seasons overall. Assured regular playing time, probably going to run a little more than Wong.

A still more bases might have more power at this point. I don't, like you said, I don't think Colton Wong does anything special at this point. Zach writes in, what is James Paxton's value? In Dynasty, should you look to move him or hope that he finally pitches more innings? If you are in a league with Chris or Scott, you should look to move him. I think people forget. I don't think Chris and Scott are higher on James Paxton than the industry. I think the industry really likes James Paxton.

How old James Paxton is. Like 29, right? They do. Yep. He's older than you think. He is not someone that I feel. I think his value. is probably higher on a yearly basis than it is in Dynasty.

Because he is somebody that is really struggled to put together a season with a lot of innings. I know Chris will cite. There are 171 innings in 2016. Yes. Got hit by a pitch. Right. Also looking at the entirety of his career, he is a guy that has struggled to put together

seasons with a lot of innings. And he's 29 already. But I think from a dynasty standpoint, and they, Age is important, yes. You have to consider sealing also. And in his case, realize sealing. All he has to do to be potentially a top five pitcher in fantasy is pitch more innings. He's kind of a left-handed Noah Cinderguard.

So, I mean, I have dynasty rankings on the site. I can tell you exactly how I value him in Dynasty League. I value him 61st overall, which I think is higher, actually, than I have him in a seasonal rankings. So of all the pitchers who I rank outside of my top 50s. He's the one that has the best chance of being top five. And I think that in a long-term context, I mean, 29, yes, but he still probably has four or five good years left. I think he should value him pretty highly. All right.

Dear Walter, Sylvester, Toby, and Kabe. I have no idea anybody. Walter Silvestre. Toby and Kate. Not a clue. Are those cats? No. Maybe.

Who's Kabe? I don't know. Wondering what your thoughts are on Mr. Jan Harvest Solarte, looking at his stats and path to playing time, I could conceivably see him as this year's version of Marwin Gonzalez. Decent pop, decent average, eligible to play at two to three positions. What are your thoughts on Jan Harvest, or do you see another player potentially being this year's Marwin equivalent? They look like characters from the show Scorpion. I wasn't listening to the question at all because I was looking at up.

John Harris-Silarte. I have always liked John Hervis-Silarte. This could be an outstanding situation for him moving to an excellent offensive environment. They have too many infielders in Toronto, a lot too many infielders. I am concerned about that. He does have Marvin Gonzalez's potential. Yeah, I could see him hitting 25 homers and with a 285 average in Toronto. Yeah, I wouldn't be that surprised.

I could see him getting 375 plate appearances this year. Yeah, no, those are, I think that's, like, I like him more than Marwin Gonzalez than I ever liked Marwan Gonzalez going into last year. So yeah, I could easily see that outcome for him. It makes a lot of contact, has been adding power year after year. But it's, it's just how committed are they to Devin Travis and how healthy will Devin Travis be? All right, from Tim, last email. Hi, Cal, Lou, and Everett. My first thought is 80s shortstaps, but I don't know whatever it would be. Cal, Lou, and Everett. We get to keep two guys a round sooner than the previous year's placement

and last year's draft. I focused more on reliable players than possible breakouts, although he did draft Mitch Hanigur in the late rounds because of Scott's constant praise. Who do you see as next year's judge or other similar type of breakout? I should target in the mid to late rounds as a keeper for next year. Also, should he consider keeping Hanigur in the 19th round? All right, so you ready for this?

Cal Ripkin broke Lou Gehrig's record, broke Everett Scott's record. There you go. Are you ready for this? There is not an Aaron Judge this year. We've gotten this question quite a bit. Who is this year's Aaron Judge? That doesn't happen. And so, like, there will be a breakout player.

We can talk about some breakout players. Do not put that type of expectation on anyone this year, though, because it's not going to happen. Aaron Judge probably not going to pick the right guy. Aaron Judge probably isn't going to happen again. Yeah. So that's, with that said, have I killed fun? Yes. Completely.

Yes. It's dead. It's gone. Good. I think David Dahl's getting forgotten about. Also, Ryan McMahon. Sure. Yeah, either one of them.

Either one, depending on who gets the playing time. And maybe they both do because they realize Herardo Parr is better off on the bench. But I think either one of them could be a huge breakout for next-to-nothing cost. Also, Austin Hayes, who I've mentioned before. That was one of the guys I was looking at for this question. A guy with completely different profile that I think could be a huge breakout that got a lot of playing time last year, but I think is being overlooked, especially in Roto, is Bradley Zimmer.

That's another guy I was looking at. He has 25-25 potential probably. How many bases do you steal last year? His base stealing potential, I think, is much higher than 25. He stole 18 and 101 games last year. In the minors in 2016, he stole 38. In 2015, he stole 44. Okay.

Yeah, he could be, he didn't really show the power in the majors last year, but it's there. He definitely has that potential. He has a lot of on-base potential that he didn't. a show. So I would have liked to have seen it applied in a clear way in the majors, but it's definitely there. And just sort of a post-hype prospect, kind of like Aaron Judge.

Austin Meadows, minor league numbers, not as good as the scouting reports, I think, especially last season. He really struggled at AAA, but scouts still really like him, as far as I know. And there's a chance for playing time, right? Yes. There is now that Andrew McCutcheon's gone. Yeah, there's also another interesting guy, Jordan Luplow, who may block him if he had like an OPS over 900 in the miners last year. Obviously not a prospect on Meadows level, but I'm interested in seeing what he could do with a regular role for the pirates.

But he's a little, like I wouldn't put him in the same category as the McMahon's and the hazes and even like Austin Meadows. And how? Gregory Polanco. Oh. Post-hyped sleeper. You made it to the end of this podcast. You missed the boat. Gregory Polanco.

Go ahead and draft him. There's a lot to like about his skills. Did you say Randall Gritchick already? Randall Gritchick. You got to say Randall Gritchick. That's a guy that actually could have a mini-judge-type breakouts. Yeah, it could have like an almost 40-former season. It's not out of the ball.

I don't buy it. I don't get the Gritchick hype. You could look at this hard contact rate. There's no hype. Okay. I mean, why hasn't it manifested better? Is Roger Sennett really that much better than Bush Stadium? 100%.

Says the Tommy fam guy. Maybe if he went to Corse Field. Yeah, Roger Sten. First off, he's always going to know when a slider's coming, because the guy will just wave the white tail. Exactly. So that helps a lot. All right.

That's going to do it. I'm not even going to try to do an outro because I'm the guy who laughs at Azer every time he fails, so I'm just going to say thanks for listening. Adam will be back on Friday.