Fantasy Baseball Today - 02/28: Late-Round OF; Spring Standouts; Draft Review (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: February 28, 2019

A lot of topics on today's show as we finish up our OF thoughts with some late-round picks we like (3:00) before getting into the latest news (12:30) on the LAD rotation, Carlos Martinez, Yusei Kikuchi (18:00), the HOU rotation (19:40) and more ... Early Spring Training standouts (26:20)! Who's ready to buy the Byron Buxton and Lewis Brinson hype? Which position battles are taking shape? ... A Twitter poll about the "Rocky" franchise, plus your emails (36:30) about position eligibility, a steals total to aim for and more. Finally, we recap  our 12-team, H2H Points mock draft (43:00). How do you adjust your strategy when SPs are going earlier than you expected? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Because two hours were not enough to finish our afield preview. We've got another show for you today where we will finish it up with some late round sleepers. Also, a lot of news from around baseball.

What's going on in the Dodgers rotation? Is Julio Arias really going to be in the opening day rotation? And what's going on? The Astros rotation. A couple of injuries to update you on there. We will also recap our head-to-head 12 team head-to-head points league mock draft and reach your emails at Fantasy Baseball. Atcelsi.com.

I'm Adam Azer. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today. Welcome to Scott White. Hey, Scott White. Hi, Adam. How are you doing today? Thank you for asking. You're the only one whoever does.

I'm doing very well. Chris Towers. Hello? Hi. How are you doing today? Hey, now I'm even better. And here is Heath Cummings, fresh off a wonderful night at American Airlines Arena where he saw the Dwayne Wade buzzer beat her. Did you guys stay at the end? Of course we stayed at the end.

Oh, that was the dumbest ending for a game I've ever seen. It was incredible. Well, you've got to remember, I was there with a kid. The only reason we were there is because he's a Warriors fan and because he's had a terrible last two weeks. He wasn't even upset. That was amazing. It was absent. I told him, I said, you're going to get to see Steph Curry and Kevin Durant again.

You're going to see them win many more championships, probably. You'll never see that from Dwayne Wade in person. It's his last chance to see Dwayne Wade, one of the three or four best players in his position ever. That's awesome. All right, all right. Enough basketball. I just wanted to point out that after Dwayne Wade made that game-winning buzzer-beating three-pointer, they played in the arena

and it's time to introduce that to fantasy baseball today. I'm not sure if we did. It's a fantasy football today's staple, but that is the heat is on. On this show it is the Heath is on. So whenever Heath says something really good, really smart, really funny, whatever,

which is all the time, we will play, not whenever, but occasion. Do we not get dropped? No drop. Think of Scott and Chris. Think of one and I will do it. I will make it for you.

My name's a little. tricky. Oh, I know. I will get Doc Brown going Great Scott! Yes. Oh, that's good. Yeah, that's good. All right. We don't make anything for Chris. We've all got drops now. Everybody has a personalized drop. Okay. We're all good. Let's talk you. You know, Chris, I'm going to let you lead off here. Who are some of your favorite late round outfielders? We got through about 50 outfielders at ADP, right up to the Byron-Buyren-Buckston, Ryan Braun, Kyle Schwerber group. But who are you going to be targeting late in drafts.

Before we're talking about past it. Can we verify like what is late round? Are we going after ADP 200? That's where I'm at. ADP 200. And I'm looking at ADP 50-51, not rankings 50-51. Yeah. So yes, 200.

Ryan Braun is 204th off the board. He's the 51st outfielder drafted. So including that range and beyond that range, who are you looking at? Oh, there's so many outfielders that I like in this range. I'll start off with Gregory Polanco, who we've, gotten some very good news about so far in spring training looks like he's already been cleared to hit he could be playing in games before the end of spring training and you know this was a guy that at least initially back in january there were reports that he could be out until july um but yesterday

the the head of the pirates uh sports medicine group i guess said that there's a chance he could play in games during spring training. And if that's the case, I mean, if he plays in a game before the end of spring training, maybe he's not ready opening day, but maybe it's like a Michael Conforto timeline where he's ready

the first week or two of the season. I'm still a little wary of him coming off the shoulder injury, same as we saw with Michael Conforto, but he looked like he was making a leap last year. And he's a great value at 56 if he's going to be ready in April. Okay, that's Gregory Polanco. I know you wanted to talk about Jackie Bradley. Yeah, Jackie Bradley, we didn't mention it yesterday, right?

But he's working with J.D. Martinez's a swing coach. Or he worked with him in the offseason. This is the guy who also reworked Justin Turner's swing. Turned both of those guys into two of the best hitters in baseball. I actually think it was a different one from Turner. It was J.D. Martinez's hit code. I think that was the same guy, though. I think Justin Turner worked with him.

I tried to confirm that last night because I was writing about the Jackie Bradley thing. I think it was a different guy, but I'll check. Either way, it's the same principle. And look, I don't think this guy's magical. But obviously the principles work when guys have a baseline level of talent. Jackie Bradley obviously has that. It's really not a question of talent. It's always been consistency.

And, you know, it's not about just hitting the ball in the air. It's about creating a different swing path so that you're on the level of the same plane as the ball. So you stay in the hit zone longer. And if that creates more consistency for Jackie Bradley, I mean, we've already seen him have a 27 homer season, stole 17 bases last year. If he puts those two things together,

and he can hit, I don't think, 275, 280's out of the question, you're looking at a really solid fantasy player, especially in Roto leagues. All right, Heath, how about you? Who are some late round outfielders you'd like to target? Oh, I was afraid Chris was going to take all. of mine. So obviously, Jake Bowers,

we've talked plenty about him. I agree with Chris completely about Gregory Polanco. We mentioned Domingo Santana briefly. His ADP is starting to creep up a little bit, but still in the 260s. That's way too low for him. Getting deeper. Steven Sousa is at

322. I believe he's healthy. He is going to be the cleanup hitter for the Arizona Dimevex. Very, very deep. You can go with Adam Azer specialist Greg Allen. Hey, hey now. Oh, you stole my guy.

And then even cheaper, Greg Allen, a guy that we were excited about to start last year, Delano to Shields, sounds like there's a very good chance. He's going to be back where we thought he was going to be at the start of last year. Yeah, just hope he can hit. Probably not. But, yeah, those are good steel sources late. Greg Allen, Delano to Shields. So we've got Gregor Polanco, Jackie Bradley.

I'm sure there were more that Chris wanted a name. Oh, yeah. Go ahead. Just name a few without really expanding too much. Max Kepler looks like he's going to hit lead off. He improved against lefties last year. He just needs to get back to where he was against righties. Let's not give up on Ian Hap entirely.

Yeah. I won't steal Scots, but there's Franmael Reyes and Scott can talk about him. Just stole Scott. Well, no, he can talk about him, and I will. I don't want to overlook Daniel Palka, who only hit 240 last season, hit 27 home runs. The batted ball data for him is actually. He hits the ball basically as hard as Christian Yelich does in terms of exit velocity. I think there's room for him to grow.

And he's basically free. He's 302 overall. Daniel Palk of the White Sox, Framoreas of the Padres, Kepler on the Twins, probably know the rest of the Shields with the Rangers. Greg Allen looks like he's going to be a starting outfielder for the Indians. All right, Scott, who are some late-round outfielers you like to target? There are two in particular. that I am in love with.

They could have been the players I loved on Valentine's Day if you hadn't denied us that. We got to do that, right? We've got to make up for that. That tradition. So one of them is Fran Mill Reyes, as Chris said. He's going 266 overall. Entirely because of playing time concerns, I assume. The Padres have too many players for those spots.

But Framil Reyes deserves to be one of the three. I think he's the best of them. I think he's even better than Will Myers in terms of how good he could be. Just the numbers at his face on their face as a rookie last year are pretty impressive. But when you consider how bad he was before return trip to the minors, I mean, he was a completely different player when he came back. His strikeout rate was way down, more in line with where it was in the minor leagues, where for a big guy with a lot of power, really didn't strike out all that much.

and his exit velocity is almost on the level of John Carlos Stan. He hits the ball really hard. He had an elite line drive rate. He hits the ball to all fields almost evenly. So he's going to be a high Babbitt guy with a ton of power to clear the fences. I think it's only a matter of time. If he doesn't win the job outright this spring, I think it's only a matter of time, certainly in five outfielder leagues, I have to have Bram Mill Reyes.

The other is going a little earlier. Jesse Winker, 236th overall. I have a feeling he might move out of this range as spring goes on, because playing time concern was a big question for him, too. And I feel like David Bell has kind of already put that to rest. There are no restrictions on Winker coming off shoulder surgery. Yeah, he's playing in games soon, if not already, right? I don't think he has yet, but soon.

Bell has said he sees him as an everyday player. He's in the discussion to bat leadoff. And he's a mini Joey Vado. He really is. If you look at his batted ball profile from last year, it's, you know, Joey Votto's was kind of wacky last year, but compare it to the typical Joey Votto season, it's right there. He walked more than he struck out in his first look in the majors.

And he really started to show some power as the season went on. if he's just a 20 homer guy with everything else he does with the bat, I think he must start. Okay, yeah, so Winker, look, home runs, he might. I know Scott just said he started to show some power. Last 26 games before his shoulder injury, he had an 1148 OPS. He batted 413 with a 453 Babbat, four home runs and six doubles. So if you're weak at home runs, I don't think he's going to help you, but he has a great eye about as many walks of strikeouts.

Well, I just don't think he's going to... 25 homer guy. Okay, but that seems like a pretty rosy scenario, especially since he can't hit lefties. So, again, I mean... Well, he's played like 120 games. We don't know what he can't do against lefties. I know that he hasn't hit lefties.

I feel like I have to make the... Yeah, he doesn't hit for power. He doesn't... There are questions about his power. I feel like I have to make that acknowledgement because if not, somebody else is going to bring it up. but if you're just asking me what I think is going to happen with Joey Jesse Winker I think he's going to be consistently

above 20 homers around 25 how have we had like four references in the last two days of Jesse Winker and Joey Votto and Chris has not stood up on the desk and started screaming yet why because like it's not it's doing a disservice to Joey Vado I mean it's a little early for that Well, even if he doesn't... The skill set looks pretty similar. Here's the point, though, that I was trying to make.

Even if Jesse Winker doesn't hit for a lot of home runs, he's still going to be a good value unless he keeps moving up. But if you're drafting right now, he doesn't... He'll score runs, get on base, be really probably very effective in points leagues, and he's 240th off the board, 59th outfielder. All right, so there you go.

There are some names for you. Framo Reyes, Jesse Winker, Jake Bowers, Domingo Santana, Steven Seuss up really late. Greg Allen, Delano to Shields really late. Gregory Polanco, Jackie Bradley, Max Kepler, Ian Hap. Some guys to keep an eye on is late round outfielders. Let's do news and notes. Bryce Harper could be down to the Phillies, Dodgers, and Giants.

And it's looking worse for the Phillies. Which, you know, isn't good for Harper necessarily, especially if hands up in San Francisco. But it's also, I think, in my opinion, not good for someone like Gene Segarra, Cesar Hernandez, guys who would benefit. Now, of course, we just talked about yesterday. The lineup's good enough. Is it, though? I mean...

That might be like a difference of five runs or something. All right, fine. All right, fine. Clayton Kershaw did not feel great throwing the other day. And Julio Arias apparently could begin the season in the rotation. He barely pitched in 2017. He did not pitch in 2018. But as a rookie, he was 20, I think, in 2016.

Julio Arias had a 339 ERA, more than a strikeout per inning, but he did have a 1-4-6 whip. He has control issues. Scott, what do you think happens in the Dodgers rotation? What's your read on this right now? My guess is that Clayton Kirschaw begins the year on the D.L. And O'Reas is in the rotation. But not for long? Right, right.

But, you know, there's no telling the way the Dodgers handle their rotation, constantly shuffling guys on and off the DL seemingly as a way of preserving their innings, though, obviously that's not something they can admit to. You know, it could be that Aria sticks in the role for a couple months. But just based on the way Dave Roberts is talking, I think he's overtaken. Ross Stripling is the next in line.

That was the name I was going to say. This makes me feel really bad about Ross Stripling, because I kind of thought he was that guy as soon as someone got hurt. And he could still be a guy who ends up making 20 starts this year, because they have lots of pitchers on that team that could have concerns about their innings. But this makes me feel worse about stripling as a late round sleeper. Well, here's what I would say. Kintamaida is not going to throw more than 135.

I think it's 135 innings where he gets like a $3 million bonus. So they've pretty much made it clear he's not going to get there. Hum Jun Ryu's probably not going to make more than 20 to 25 starts. Clayton Kershaw is probably not going to make more than 20 to 25 starts. Walker Bueller might get to 30. Yeah, he's the safest. And even that, I think that he's going to have some times where they pull him back. Rich Hill's not going to make 30 starts.

There's going to be a lot of starts available. I still think drafting Ross Stripling late given the gains that he made last. year makes a lot of sense. Is anyone drafting Julio Arrias? We need to start. We need to start. Yeah, I mean, it would depend on the depth of the league. I don't know.

I need to move him up by ranking and see exactly where he lands, but I don't know if he's going to quite make the cut in a 12th team league for me. Certainly you could talk about it. Yeah, my thing is if we find out he's starting on opening day, you're dropping someone you drafted to pick him up, and you're probably starting him. Right. Okay. I'd rather have my team.

Right. I would say it's a 55% chance right now. He begins in the starting rotation. All right. Carlos Martinez had a platelet-rich plasma injection, PRP, and he is unlikely to begin the season in the rotation. When are we taking, well, I can tell you in our Points League draft that we did two days ago, which he's actually RP eligible.

Carlos Martinez went Oh wait, no I don't know Oh yeah, 119th overall There we go So that is like round 10 The end of round 10 and a 12 team league And that was with RP eligibility So where do you guys

Heath where would you draft Carlos Martinez right now? He just continues to fall and fall And I was high on him Two weeks ago I think I'm still probably one of the high guys In the industry on him But it's much much lower I took him in the TGFBI

Draft two days ago at pick 180. I know Chris got him, I think, last night at pick 2017. Wow. He's falling down to the point to where he's basically free. And maybe he's worth nothing,

but he's certainly worth speculation at that stage of the draft. Okay. Does this open up a spot for anyone interesting? Probably Alex Reyes. Yeah, for Alex. God, I couldn't think of it. For Alex. He's interesting.

Thank you. Yeah, he's very, Very interesting. I mean, he could be amazing. Is he going to be in the rotation now? I don't think it's as clear for him as it is for Ereus right now that he's next in line. I would guess so. But they have a few other options they like. And they might want to be really cautious with Reyes' injury based on what's happened the last two years. So I think we need to wait and see how that plays out. But I mean, he's still, I think the upside's higher than Ereis. So he's still. I think the upside's higher than Ereis. So he's still. definitely somebody that needs to be drafted in all leagues, Reyes is. The Iraqis gave Nolan Aronado an eight-year, $260 million deal with a no-trade clause. I know I think I brought that up a couple of shows ago, but that's... And an opt-out. Obviously good news for Dynasty League owners.

And you say Kikuchi for the Mariners, check his ADP. He's got a 207th overall, not as high as I thought. They are going to use him Every fifth or sixth start Throw like an inning for Kikuchi To limit his innings So he will be useless in those starts That's kind of an interesting way to do it

I actually like this And I drafted him at 210 This morning in the TGFBI I think of all the ways That you can limit his innings I would assume with the beat riders They have in Seattle We're going to have a pretty good idea

what the schedule is looking like on a week-to-week basis. And so I would much rather than do this than say, we don't want him going more than five innings in a start, or we don't want him going past the sixth. Because he is a guy who pretty much average seven plus innings a start in Japan. If they're going to let him just go four or five starts, and then once sit him down. Yeah, but you can't, I don't think you can make that the comp of how much he threw in Japan per start

because he's pitching once every seven days there. But basically, if you give him six innings per start for four starts and then two innings for the fifth, then you give him 30 starts, that gets him to 156 innings. Maybe the upside is like 165. Yeah. But...

But we have to be more open-minded to players like that nowadays. Sure. So he's 40th for Scott and 45th for Heath. You say Kikuchi. We'll talk about him. We've got a starting pitcher preview coming up, so we'll get to that. Houston pitcher Josh James has a strained quad, and Colin McHugh has lower back soreness. Scott, what's going on in the Astros rotation?

Well, I don't think either of these are of a great concern right now. I mean, Josh James, you don't want to see a player who's competing for a spot injured. He's not going to be in the older competing. Yeah, he's not going to be in the opening day rotation. Yeah. So he's not Josh James is out of contention For the rotation

Not that he's going to pitch opening day But the opening day rotation He would not be one of the first five Oh okay I didn't Yeah but that doesn't mean I don't know what happens two weeks after that But he's not going to start And that probably means forumber

Valdez has a spot Or Brad Peacock Yeah I guess Brad Peacock technically is in the mix But he's already They're already losing one reliever and McHugh assuming he's healthy.

So I think the odds are against Peacock. Remember Valdez is interesting, though, because he was a good badmister in the minors, and both in the majors and minors, elite ground ball, like Kiko-level ground ball rate. So I think he might be a little overlooked in fantasy. All right, would you guys rather draft Julio Arias or Josh James? I know we've been excited about James.

He's got a little bit of a setback here, but who's a better draft pick right now, Reyes or James, let's go Heath, Chris Scott. Go. I'm still going to say James because there is a potential for Josh James to throw 150 innings as a starter in the major leagues, even if he misses the first two weeks of the season or the first month of the season. I don't think there's much of a potential for Julio Urias to get over 110 this year, maybe 120. So I would rather have James, but they're right in the same area now.

Chris? James easily. I'm really excited to see him. I also say James. Okay. Alex Bregman will make a spring training debut on Saturday. Buster Posey will do so on Friday. D.D. Regorius, unlikely to return by June.

So we're looking more like July or August for D.D. Gregorius. St. Louis signed Miles Michaelis to a four-year $68 million deal. That will begin in 2020. Arizona outfielder Gerard Dyson has an oblique strain. Dyson only played 67 games last year. The six seasons before that, he had 26 to 36 deals every single season, despite never making more than 390 plate appearances. But Dyson is a bench player for the Diamondbacks, right?

Yes. Okay. He's going to be a start. I would estimate that he starts 2.5 games per week. All right. Shinsu Chu is shoulder soreness. The Rangers signed infielder Logan Forsyth to a minor league deal. The national signed catcher Matt Wheaters to a minor league deal.

The Major League Baseball is proposing to avoid using the pitch clock until 2022 at the early. but they could institute that three-batter minimum in 2020. They've also proposed shortening the commercial breaks in between innings. Yes, thank you. You better do that. If you're just going to go ahead and change the game, at least take a little responsibility and be less greedy and shorten the commercial breaks, that would be excellent.

The three-batter-rule is ridiculous. I hate the idea of the three-batter-rule. I hate the idea of the pitch-clock. I don't know that I mind the pitch-clock, but the three-batter-roll... I think it's going to lead to injuries. It seems like a lot of people feel like everyone will just get used to it. Yeah, I don't.

They've been using it in the minors for a few years now, right? I don't know how long, but they've been using it into the minors. I don't think it's been a 20-second clock in the minors. It has? I think it has. Okay. Yeah, I think I've seen some data that injuries have gone up. Either that or guys won't be able to throw as hard, and we'll see.

a big decline in pitching quality. I don't mind the three batter minimum, really. I think it opens up a lot of room for competing strategies in a way having no minimum. It's almost kind of automatic now. Bring the leftie in for one batter. Okay, now bring in the righty. It's predictable and it's boring. I think we'll see more interesting bullpen usage with the three batter minimum.

They shouldn't be facing three batterers. If they're not good enough to face three batters, but they're getting crushed. Find someone who is. Yes, Heath. Well, Chris said Adam first. No, no, no. If you wanted to add to this conversation,

I had something to add about something else prior. Mine is something to add to the notes. Okay. Scott will like this. Ned Yost said this morning, he is debating whether I have Mondesi lead off and have wit back at second. He likes the idea of the switch hitting Mondesi leading off.

I don't know that Monti is going to lead off, but that makes it sound very likely that it's going to be Monashy and Maryfield as the first two hitters in the order, which was very good for Mondesie's value. And they also... Go ahead. No, sorry. The other news note was Mike Fultenevich has been shut down

from his next start because of elbow soreness. Ned Yost has said he's also not going to name a closer. His eyes have been opened. and he doesn't have any good closers. Yeah, relief pitcher preview tomorrow. One of the first questions I'll be asking on that is, how many set closers do we have when we do that on March 1st? It's not a leap year, right?

No, it's not a leap year. We have too many segments in today's show, by the way. So we're going to have to start going faster. Next, we're going to talk about early spring standouts. Yeah, Byron Bucks and Lewis Brinson, you guys are raking. We'll talk about it right after this. early spring standouts Scott's been doing great work

writing columns on the website giving you little updates on what's going on in spring training if you just like me think it's so boring and don't really want to look at all those box scores but of course I will

Scott who are some early standouts that are actually making a difference in your mind and not just fodder for this dead zone right now of stuff to talk about actually making a difference well the Jackie Bradley thing that Chris brought up earlier, I think, you know, I wasn't paying.

There was no way I was going to draft him anywhere, and now he's kind of interesting. Edward, Edward, I'm sorry, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Red Sox. He is apparently working in a slider this year, which I think could be critical to his chances of a breakout. He's always been an interesting pitcher, but the fastball change-up combo is so good that the strikeouts are there, but consistently high hit rates have kept the ERA and whip less than palatable. I think adding that variety will make it so hitters can't guess as easily and could mean big things, could mean Mike Clevenger-type numbers for Eduardo Rubigas. Obviously, that's a health issue, too. But I find that interesting. Arreus, we mentioned.

Nick Senzel. There was an interesting comment from David Bell yesterday about Nick Senzo, where, you know, it was actually, he was being asked about Scott Shebler and Scott Shebler's versatility in the outfield. Scott Shebler, of course, being the one we presume is going to be the opening day center fielder. And he said, we like to see him in center field, but he's going to be playing left and right. That's what he said about Shepp. Well, then who's playing center? I think that means Nick Senzel's clearly plan A. I don't know if he's going to be opening day or if it's going to be another mid-April situation.

But Senzel needs to be drafted in all league, second base eligible. Okay, so let's look at your second base rankings then. If Nick Senzel is going to be a riser, would you rather have Senzel or Rugnet Odor? Rugi. Rugi. Okay, Senzel or DJ LeMayhew?

Sunzel. It might be Senzel. Yeah. Okay, so that's 14 in the rankings, DJ LeMayhew. So Senzel could be a top 13-ish second baseman. Interesting stuff. So how about Buxton and Louis Brinson, Chris? What do you think about those two guys? I don't.

Louis Brinson, he hit two balls extremely far yesterday. But, I mean, I'm working on a piece that will be updated throughout the spring about what matters in spring. And I came up with six categories of things that can happen in spring training that might matter. And performance is not one of them because I just don't care that much. Dan Vogelbach had a 1455 OPS, if you'll remember, last spring. It's a reminder that they exist, I think is the best way to say it with, you know, like Buxden reworked his swing. He got rid of the leg kick.

you said he spent all offseason. You know, he said he's gotten too much different coaching and he's trying to get back to the basics. What that means, he got rid of his leg kick. I don't know if it means he's going to be good, but like Byron Buxton exists. It's nice to be reminded. He should be drafted because there is 35 steel potential with some pop. Lewis Brinston, Brinson also exists. Maybe he needs to be drafted in the reserve rounds because there's.

some potential there. But the fact that he's hit three home runs in three games or two games, whatever, it's nice. They were pretty. It doesn't mean a lot. I do differ from Chris in that, you know, obviously two or three games. Pretty close to meaningless. A whole spring, I mean, depending on what the full extent of the numbers look like,

depending on if there were changes made that might have inspired the numbers, it means something to me. I mean, even he cited Vogelbach's numbers last year. Well, Vogelbach never got a chance to capitalize on those numbers. I'm not sure Vogelbach wouldn't be a mixed league caliber hitter. Right, but not because of spring training. It's because he's produced in the minors. Well, I mean, I trust the numbers.

You know, if he's showing he can hit that well against Major League pitching over a month's time, I don't think it's meaningless. But it's not meaningful. counts for more than the minor league track record, but it's not meaningless. But it's not. Minor league production matters just as much as the manager allows it and general manager allow it to factor into the discipline. Spring training or minor, yeah.

Yes, spring training. Heath is off. But like it's 63 at bats. Like, I think that's, that was the most at bat to anybody had in spring last year. So, Heath, any, any, any, uh, any standouts for you, Heath, anyone that's catching your eye? I'm more on the Chris's bandwagon here. I care more about things I'm hearing

probably in sound bites than I do about game production, especially the first week. All right, well, there's a... How is, that that sound like exactly what I said. Yeah, I don't, yeah, no, I don't think anybody's really disagree with you, Scott. Okay.

Great Scott. Nobody's allowed to argue with me. Yeah, there is one position battle. getting pretty hot. Both Yankees' first baseman are having good starts to their springs. Whoever's starting first baseman for the Yankees is going to be useful at fantasy. Unless it's Greg Byrd. No, even if it's Greg Bird.

He will have it bounce back here. He's been the starting first basing for Yankees. He is going to bounce back. Neither might be good. They will be good. They will be good for fantasy because they play in a little league ballpark. if either well I mean it's kind of

self-explanatory but if either is good enough to keep the job they will be good enough in fantasy sure exactly but like how excited were we to start Mitch Morland and Steve Pierce last year or Neil Walker last year that's the thing no

that's more the point I was making about bird than just there's no hope for him because obviously he was injured but I think if Bird wins the starting job it won't be Greg Bird is playing every day I think if Boyt wins it, it will probably be Void is playing every day. One of them is going

to the minors, so they're going to be an everyday player. Does Byrd have options left? He's 37 years old. They pretty much said that one of them is likely to go to the minors. Maybe get traded, who knows? So, okay, I just had to get that. I hadn't

talked about Greg Byrd in a really long time, so I'm happy I got that in. I wanted to read a Twitter poll that everybody should think about, because Scott's never seen any of the Rocky movies. and I totally tried to influence this Twitter poll. I think I have seen Rocky one. I think I have.

Clearly it didn't inspire me to watch more. You should watch them. It does bother me a little bit when people say Rocky 4 is their favorite. It's a fun movie, very enjoyable, but not even close to as good of a movie as the first two. With that said, Twitter poll, what is your favorite Rocky movie? A, Rocky, B, Rocky 2, C, Rocky 4, or D, Other. and it was a close one. 2,600 votes.

Rocky, 36% the original. Rocky 4, 35%. Rocky 2, 19% and other 10%. I got some write-in for Creed. Yeah, you didn't mention the best movie in the Rocky cinematic extended universe. There's such a lame thing to say. It is not Creed.

Creed is a terrible thing. Creed is the best movie in the series, by far. That is such an overrated movie. It's not. Rocky is obviously the answer to this. the first one. I would put Creed 3rd, Rocky 4 first,

and Rocky 2nd. But like Rocky 4 first because it's fun. Not because it's that good. It's like a really cheesy movie. There's a robot. There's a robot. Yeah, but like, Pauli's in Rocky 1. They have two, they have two

montages, like within 10 minutes of each other. Well, yeah, sometimes you need a montage. Twice. Fantastic. Are you saying Pauli's he was in Rocky one. Wasn't he?

Yeah, he was a Rocky 4, too. Yeah, he's not very good. I mean, I have seen the speech at the end of the fight that Rocky begins. And it's pretty bad. It's pathetic. It's overflowing. So we've all agreed.

The only important clarification is that all of the Rocky movies are better than Money Bowl. We've all agreed that Creed is the best Rocky movie. We can move on. That's such a, like, that's such a young person thing to say, Creed is the best Rocky movie. Well, young people have better opinions. Exactly.

Young people should play on, and old people should play on CBSSports.com. Go to CBSports.com slash FBT and sign up for the commissioner product. It is the best way to play fantasy baseball. I promise you will not regret it. Getting a lot of emails from people now talking about how much they've enjoyed it. So I thank you all for signing up. CBSports.com slash FBT get started. Very customizable.

That's the best part. I mean, you can customize it. Because I play in so many different CBS leagues and they're very damn. different, you know, among the leagues, the roster sizes, the scoring. So you can do whatever you want, and it's good stuff. Points, roto, categories, whatever. And sportsline.com. Use the promo code Vegas on Sportsline to get your first month for just $1.

Vegas is the promo code. It's a gambling site. It's a fantasy site. It's a wonderful site. And on the fantasy football today podcast this afternoon, we're going to talk to a sports line contributor, Jacob Gibbs. But again, use the code Vegas on sportsline.com. Let's read some emails for about five minutes and then spend the rest of the time on the head-to-head points league mock draft.

So I will encourage you guys not to go as deep in these answers as you normally would. Sorry about that. This is from Matt. Michael Confordo, all signs point to him being a guy to have on your team. I have him as a draft priority in my head-to-head category auction draft. But then there is the Chile Davis factor. Is Chile Davis enough to be concerned with drafting Michael Conforto? I want to go to Heath on this one because I feel like you haven't talked as much about Chile Davis as the rest of us.

I think the Chile Davis factor is probably a little bit overblown. But I don't think it's entirely overblown. It's every player, it's all about the cost. And there are reasons to be concerned with Conforto outside. of Chile Davis. It's just kind of, but I guess what I would say is the Chile Davis factor is not enough for me to say stay away from Michael Conforto.

It might be enough to keep me from reaching a couple rounds above his ADP. Okay. Everybody cool with that? Scott, I feel like Scott. Yeah, okay, cool. It's fine. Won't talk for Scott anymore. Lou in Connecticut, how many stolen bases do you feel is a good amount to shoot for

in a head-to-head categories league. Ballpark it. So, Chris, I know in the past you've written about what you need at each category. Yeah, I mean, I have the data for Roto leagues, and I would assume it's not that different. So let me pull that up now. So last place in Stolen Bases,

last year on average in 12-team sports leagues in Roto, had 73 steals. First place had 168. So third place had 145, 6th place had 119. So 120 should make you competitive. 140 should get you to a place where you're winning more often than not. And now the leagues are going to be different. There will be people who don't prioritize speed.

And there will be people who do a lot. And that'll matter more in head to head. But generally speaking, if you can get 135 steals by the end, of the season, you should be in pretty good shape. Those numbers are probably too high for head-to-head standards just because you're starting five more hitters in a standard head-to-head league. No, in a roto league, you're starting more hitters, right? Yeah, and more on the roto.

Yeah, it also depends, yeah. On your roster size, I play in a head-to-head league that uses roto rosters, so, yeah, in a category. So to be clear, we're talking 130 steals for a 12-team league where it's like five outfielders, middle infield corner infield? Yeah, and you shouldn't lose every week. I basically try, like, ideally I try to get two big base dealers,

like guys who I think are going to give me, you know, maybe a guy who I think's going to give me 40 or more, maybe a guy I think I was going to give me 30 or more, and then trust that the little dribs and drabs from around the rest of my lineup will push me to at least around the middle of the steals category. That's generally how I approach it. All right, next email is from Ken in a town in central New Jersey.

Dear Hatcher, Jones, Tillman, Warren, and Young. Sorry, Scott and Heath. There are no unsigned free agents named Scott or Heath. How many Scots in baseball at all? Those are Adams and Chris's. It's good to know. I'm listening to the position previews. You mentioned some players who are expected to gain eligibility quickly at new positions.

Let's talk about that. He wants to know who are some of the guys. He mentioned Hoskins, first base, Muncie, second base. Murphy first base, Senzel outfield, Jake Lamb, first base, Machado, third base, pro far, second base.

Are any of these guys not going to gain eligibility quickly there? I'm not sure Muncie will. Right. I mean, like, if they bring in Harper, then I think Muncie would have to. And Machado won't, right? Yeah, I looked at that one too.

Is he not going to play third? He's going to be their shortstop for now. No, he's playing third. No, he's playing third, yeah, because Kinsler's going to play second. Oh, Kinsler might play third. That was the plan, but now they have Machado. Oh, you know what?

They could reshuffle on. Yeah, they could put Kinsler at third, Machado at Shored, and Arias at second. But eventually, they're going to have to make... I think Machado's going to play either shortstop or third. I don't think it'll be won the whole season. I know for sure they still plan Tatis to be their long-term shortstop. Yeah. Chado at third base.

Anyone else, guys? Anyone else that's going to gain eligibility? Oh, yeah. I mean, there's coming up with them off the time. up in my head. That might be a challenge. Wilmer Flores' second base. That's kind of going deeper.

Mike Mastakus, maybe second base. Sure. That's a good one. Okay. All right, great. How about, how about, let's go with Adam in southern India. Heath, I'll give us one to you.

Deep roster, Dynasty League. Would you drop Scott Shebler or Tyler White for any of the following? Ramone Luriano from, Mel Reyes, Mark Trumbo, Jorge Soler. Well, I think everybody wants to drop them for Von Mill Reyes on this podcast, probably. Shebler for Reyes. Yeah, Shepler.

What about Tyler White? Would you drop Tyler White for Luriano, Mark Trumbo, or Jorge Soler? I mean, if it's a deep league, I think Tyler White needs to be owned. I am pretty excited about Ramon Laureano could be. It might become down to as much of how is your outfield depth, and is this a five outfielder league. Okay. And White's been working out in the outfield, right? He's been playing third base.

Oh, that's what it was. Okay. Yeah. But, I mean, obviously, D.H is probably what he's looking at. I think Reyes and White are my favorite two here by a pretty significant margin. Okay. Last question from Carl. Scott, would you add Jesus Lazzardo or Josh James and drop Brandon Woodruff or Joe Musgrove?

I would drop Woodruff for Josh James, except. for maybe in a spark scenario. Well, it sounds like he mentioned he has glass now as a spark already. If it's a league where that matters, I still might like to hold on to Woodruff, especially since James's injury situation.

But I think I'd drop Woodruff for James. Okay, a couple days ago, we did a 12-te-head-to-head points league mock draft. And we talked about how we drafted outfield, but let's talk about some more broader takeaways from the draft. And are the results available on the website yet, guys? Yes.

Okay, wonderful. So please take a look at the draft on the website on CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. So first things first, what do you do when starting pitchers go off the board earlier than you expect? Because Chris and I had the first and second picks of the draft and we took Trout and vets. And then as you may remember from yesterday, we took Judge and Blackman with the second to last and last picks of round two. But looking back on it, it's possible that I should have taken two pitchers at the two-three turn. I think I took Blake Snell and Blackman. But pitchers went a little earlier than I expected.

Seven starting pitchers in the first two rounds. And then by the time I got to my second pick, or my fourth pick, sorry, the end of round four, I took Clayton Kershaw and everybody was like, ugh. And he was the best one left, in my opinion. But do you adjust? Chris, I'll let you speak to it because when your second pick came. Heath, I'll let you jump in there too. I'm jumping again.

Okay. Well, it might have been a little bit different when our second pick was up compared to when yours was. But go ahead, Heath. Well, actually, in the recap for this piece, this is the exact topic that I wrote about. Oh, okay. I'm sorry. Because I was picking two spots behind you guys, and you guys took the third round pitchers that I wanted. And so I didn't get a pitcher until the end of the fourth round.

And I agree with you completely that pitchers went off relatively quickly. My adjustment in this situation, I don't think it's like a panic move. Because if you are going to take hitters with 70 or first nine picks or 80 or first 10 picks, you're going to have the best or second best offense in the league. What I want to do, though, is when I get to that round 10 range, is I'm going to start taking pitchers, even if it's a round or too early, that I think have the upside to be number two

and number three starters. I did take Strausberg in the fourth round as my ace, and when he's healthy, he'll be my ace. But then I took Robbie Ray in round 10, Shane Bieber in round 11, Nick Betta in round 12, Rich Hill in round 13. Well, why didn't you take, you know,

why didn't you take Zach Wheeler or David Pry... Why don't you take a picture in rounds like 6, 7, 8? Why did you wait so long? Because I don't think... Specifically with Beaver and Povetta,

and really, even with Robbie Ray, I don't think that there is a difference between... In fact, I'd rather have most of those guys than David Price. I don't think there's a significant difference between them, and you can get them three or four rounds later and build an elite offense instead.

All right, so just a player. if I just want to, because people might not get it. So Heath had the fourth pick. He went out Tuve in round one. He took Francisco Lindorre in round two. He fell pretty far. And then he was probably thinking, okay, I'll get my ace in round three.

But Blake Snell, Aaronnola, Trevor Bauer were the first three picks of round three. So you decided to take Ben and Tendi, Heath, instead of Carrasco, Cinderguard. They were the next two pitchers off the board. Then Corbyn and Bueller went. Then Flarety went. and Granky went, and then finally you took Steven Strausberg in round four.

So that's kind of what you were talking about. I guess I'm also surprised you didn't take a pitcher in round three instead of Andrew Benintendi. Like no Carrasco or Cindergarde instead of Benetendee. Yeah, I was hoping to take, and one guy that went really early compared to our drafts as Corey Klover. But generally at the beginning of that third round,

you can get Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Corey Kluver, one of those three guys. And they were just all gone. And I think there's a drop-off to the next tier. And I'd rather just have the hitting boost. Yeah. So I don't know that the way this player pool works, that drafting a bunch of hitters early necessarily guarantees you a better offense than anyone else,

especially in a league with so few hitter spots to fill where you know there's not going to be great shortages in the middle of the draft. I think there are about two rounds worth of hitters that I think are clearly, standouts. But then after that, I mean, it's kind of a matter of degrees what I prefer. Like, I don't have a great deal of confidence. Chris Bryant's going to be better than a Euhani Oswaras, just to give an example. Brian has more upside. But in terms of what my expected outcome is, it's pretty similar for those two. And I think that's true for a lot of hitters in that like in that round three to eight range. So what you're saying makes sense.

I just don't know that it works for me just with the way with the way the distribution of the particular distribution of talent is this year. Well, but then I look at the round four pitchers in particular and it's Patrick Corbyn who's had one great year. Walker Bueller who's thrown 100 and who had thrown 105 innings

as a professional before last season and could be an injury risk. He's had Tommy John surgery. Jack Flaherty, I think, is just being overrated. Yeah, it's very early. Very early for him. But this is not that abnormal relative to where other pitchers get selected. I think we're drafting him.

That's the earliest I've seen Flaherty go. I mean, Granky went behind him. Strausberg went behind him. Kirshall went behind him. I mean, I don't think I... I don't think those are that out of the norm. Well, it's not. I mean, Granky is, in fantasy pros, you know, the rounds are later,

but Granky is 18th and Flaherty's 19th. Strasbourg, 17th. No, I mean, I understand there's risk there. Zach Granky is like crowing about the fact that he hit an 88 miles an hour in his most recent in his first spring start. Steven Strausberg, I think he's a good value this year, but he never stays healthy. Mike Clevenger, I think there's room for a lot of regression there. Clayton Kershaw may not pitch this.

year. Like, there's a chance, Clinton Kirchall just never gets right. And so, you know, yes, Chris Bryant may not be better than Ehayohenius-Swarres, but that crop of pitchers, and then it gets, I think, even more obvious once you get to that round six range work. But I think there's a difference. Like, you're giving the downside of each of those pitchers, but, you know, there's not really performance concern, except for Flaherty. There's not really performance concern for any of them and you look at the later group of pitchers. Like, you're not going to find is that granky from that group unless you just happen to There's definitely performance issues with every single one of them.

Steven Strausberg had a 375 ERA last year or something close to that. But his point per start average was still very high. Right, but he's also a year older. He may take a step back. Chris, I got to call you out on this because I don't think that you really feel like he is a 375 ERA guy. Nobody does. But he was. Like if we're talking about there's no performance

concerns with them. Like, Stephen Strasbourg's about to be 30. He's had a thousand injuries. But he's never performed poorly. But his peripherals were also in line with a mid-to-high-3 ZRA last season. I'm going to go ahead and say... But I'm saying he's still a stud in this format

even with a mid-3-ZRA. In a way, a middle-round pitcher wouldn't be. Maybe. But Scott's saying he was. But he might throw, Stephen Strasbourg was? Per game. I mean, I'll look up the point first start average. I also think his ERA was skewed by like his terrible start right before going on the DL

and his first start off the DL. But okay, but that is beside the point that I'm responding to, which is that there's no performance concerns with this group. There's performance concerns with every single pitcher who was drafted in round four. There's performance concerns with almost every player. I mean, comparing him to Chris Bryant. Chris Bryant is coming off a terrible year. So your argument doesn't really work because its hitters and pitchers are the same. Sure, it does because that is the argument that I was specifically responding to.

Okay, every single person in this group. I agree. Including the pitchers. The hitters. It's a different way then. All right, all right, all right. So, okay, next topic. Next topic.

Edwin Diaz was the first relief pitcher off the board. Now, usually it would be Carlos Martinez, but obviously in a SPARP role. Sparp being starting pitcher as relief pitcher. Something you really should, if you can, take advantage of in a points league. Those starting pitchers who are RP eligible, if they have good years, you're going to have a huge advantage at the relief pitcher spot.

This is a two relief pitcher league. So some of the sparpes, Carlos Martinez. Tyler Glass now and Colin McHugh actually went ahead of Martinez. They went 104th and 113th overall. Kent and Maeda went 143rd overall. So after pick 100, we had 3rd. Three sparps off the board in the next 20 picks. Glass Now, McHugh and Carlos Martinez, and then Maida later.

Am I missing anybody? Any other sparps? I'm looking to see. Brad Keller went in round 14. Okay. Woodruff went in round 17. All right. So that's Martinez, Glass Now, McHugh, Woodruff Keller, Maida.

That's six. And there'll be others that pop up, I guess, throughout the year. But that's a lot. And Glass Now, the first one. one off the board at 1004th overall. I'll just say something, you know, if this is a somewhat shallow league, you're starting, one catcher, first, second, third, short, three outfielders, and one utility, five starting pitchers and two relief pitchers, but this is a standard format for head to head points.

It's only 21 rounds. It's 12 teams. And you take a position like shortstop. I was the last person to pick a shortstop. And, you know, take advantage. guess of the fact that most people don't want to carry two short stops. So there is a chance that I could have waited until the 21st round to draft Elvis Andrews, who I personally am okay with as a fallback just to see if the injury is really what

made him useless last year. But the guy was a pretty standard top eight shortstop in points leagues, excluding the year when he was number one. I know he's not going to be number one again. But, you know, I took him at the end of round 16, 192nd overall. I maybe could have waited until round 21, but I didn't want to. to risk it. But I guess my point is if you are at a position where you've waited and you've waited and you've waited and there are, let's say two or three options that you feel are pretty much the same,

just keep waiting. If you're going to be the last person to draft a position, like don't do it in round 12. Keep on waiting because nobody's taking a backup shortstop. And the replacement level in this league is really high. Exactly. The guys on the bench are going to be pretty good. And so I think it also makes it more valuable to take a high risk guy in this format because if he busts

you're going to find someone competent to replace him. Yep, it's a good point. Heath, what were some of your other takeaways from this mock? That was not what I thought was coming. Heath, what do you want to talk about? Well, no, I was actually

getting ready to piggyback on Chris's take of risky players. Okay. Because I think that's, like, that kind of explains that mid-round pitching splurge I went on. I don't see a lot of value in taking the 4-ERA guy in this format because I think you're going to be able to stream that type of production on a weekly basis with streaming pitcher. And so that's why I went with Povetta, with Hill, with Bieber. Those guys could all, like Hill specifically. And this is something that kind of applies to Julio Urias and maybe now Josh James.

and any of these innings concerns guys. I think we need to get a little bit more open to the guy that's going to throw 120 innings over a four-month stretch of the season and be a top 20 starting pitcher and just recognize that we're going to have to replace them at some point, but that has significant value. It's just, it's a question of whether it's, like if they're on a bad team,

I agree. But like the Astros would probably like to have Josh James available for the playoffs. Dodgers would probably like to have Ores and Bueller and Ryu and Mayada. So it's not just going to be you know, if if Junjin Rio only makes 25 starts, it's not going to be he makes 25 starts in a row. If Josh James only makes

25 starts, it's probably not going to be just 25 starts in a row and he's done. It'll probably be 10 starts, two weeks on the DL, maybe a couple of bullpen appearances. But it's hard to rough. approach pitching is kind of outdated. Because didn't you try this, Chris, two years ago, and then you completely went away from it?

Because I know what you're saying, Scott. I feel like they are just forsaking pitching in the top first 10 rounds or so. I'm not forsaking pitching. All these ups and bananas. I said at the top of the article on this draft, I don't want to use this approach. Okay, good. Pitching with bananas early in this draft. Let's get in the point I was going to make.

And in terms of targeting guys with big strikeout rates and hoping a breakout. Sure, I mean, that's not wrong. But the most important stat in today's environment in this format is innings. And not just, okay, he's going to stay healthy, so he's going to end up with 180 innings. It's how many innings, how consistently are you delivering six and seven innings starts? Because that's where you're going to rack up points, even more so than with strikeouts, even more so than with ERA. Can I ask your question then? Innings eaters who aren't bad.

Can I ask a question? I changed my mind. Go ahead. Why do you have Jack Flaherty and David Price ranked where you do then? If innings are the most, like Jack Flaherty average less than five and a half innings per start. David Price was under six and he's not good. That's not bad in today's empire. Okay, but David Price had a four-fip and averaged less than six inings per start last year.

What's the point of drafting him? I think what's the point of ranking Jack. I'm obviously looking at upside for Flaherty, which I think is most. mostly realized. He just needs to get the walks under control. In the starts where he had the walks under control, he was a guy who the Cardinals went. If you look at the game log, the Cardinals did let Jack Flaherty pitch deep. So I think he's a very clear breakout candidate. That's why I have him rank. Who couldn't you say that about? Who couldn't I say that about? Like if Nick Povetta pitches efficiently, he's going to go deep into games. Well, I haven't looked at Pagetta's game

log specifically, but there is kind of a mindset now of just give me five innings from this guy. Go ahead, throw harder, throw as hard as you need to, unveil as many pitches as you need to, as early as you need to rather than saving them for later in the game. And I, you know, it's kind of just they're kind of building these long relievers to

transition to the bullpen now. I agree with that, but Jack Flaherty has one good pitch. I like Jack Clarity But I want to go back Jack Clarity has a great two seamer and a great A great slider I think it is a great breaking ball He does have a great slider

And his fast ball His four seamers You know He throws hard But the two The way the two seamer and the slider Because they break opposite directions And it really

It really helps them pile up strikeouts But But back to specific Just just Real quick. Because that whole antiquated, this discussion started when I rattled off the names, Beaver, Povetta, Rich Hill. I don't know which those guys doesn't fall into the category that, I mean, specifically with Povetta and Bieber, just better luck means more anythings. Hill doesn't have a problem going deep into starts.

He's a problem making a lot of starts, but you're going to know when he's starting most of the time. So what, yeah, I don't know what part of that was. Yeah, I just kind of think that logic can apply. to a lot of guys. Like, if they pitch better, they will go deeper into games. That's not always true, though. I think that's the biggest distinction between the way we used to operate with pitching in fantasy baseball and the way we need to now. Right, but... All right, I'm just going to do with this, guys. This clip is called Great Scott. So I'm just waiting for it. Here we go.

Well, why was that a Great Scott segment? There you. Not a heat is on second. I got a lot to work with here, Scott. We got a lot of great Scots to work with. All right, thanks for listening. Relief pitcher preview tomorrow on Fantasy Baseball today. We're out.