Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/05 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Early Spring Standouts

Episode Date: March 5, 2018

How much can you get from Spring Training performance? The guys discuss the early standouts, good and bad, and what it means (22:00). We also take your emails (1:00), compare pairs of players (38:00), and answer more of your emails (44:00)! Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I care about statistical scarcity more than positional. Have I killed fun? Yes. Podcasts is going off the rails already. They're pop-ups. They're not infield fly balls. These guys told you look at Bip, not E-R-A. So wait for Glover's sale, but pass on Robbie Remed door.

And pick your milk for breakfast cereal, Mount Rushmore. We've got some hot spring training stats to talk about here on the Fantasy Base Baseball Today podcast. I'm Chris Towers. No Adam Azer today, but we do have Heath Cummings and Scott Whitefellis. How was your weekend? So good, Chris. So very good. That sounds compelling. No. And believable. Yes. Yes. I feel sorry, actually, for you that have never dealt with serious back pain because the feeling after that back pain is gone is like you've been you're a new man like I can walk around without looking like I'm 95 years old I can sit in a chair for 10 or 15 minutes and it doesn't kill me it was I mean I wasn't enjoying it you were enjoying but it was funny

to watch you hobble around the office you were glowing I don't I wouldn't say that but yeah you were you were having some trouble with your mobility and your locomotion But I'm glad you're doing better. Thanks. I'm glad a weekend on the couch has done you well. We are going to talk about spring training, what matters, what doesn't after the first, what week plus, 10 days of spring action. We're going to talk about latest news and notes. Drew Pomeran's left his start with forearm tightness.

We'll talk about that. We're going to get to your emails, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. And we will start with Wes from normal Illinois. boy, what's the absolute earliest I can draft Gary Sanchez where the advantage is worth the draft position? I feel like I play the way of our wire well enough to make up the deficits in other positions that Sanchez would be worth it. I have toyed with the idea of Gary Sanchez as a first round pick. I think it's probably too much. I agree.

The question was absolute earliest. And I'm going to assume if we're going to say absolute earliest, we're going to assume Gary Sanchez. Chaz's upside for it to be worth it. So I would say the absolute earliest would be eighth. I mean, he can justify the eighth. Why eight? It seems like an arbitrary number. No, it's not arbitrary at all.

I don't think he's going to be better or more valuable than Aeronado, than Mookie Betts, then Blackman, Harper, Trout, Trey Turner, Al-Tubei. I think there's a chance that Gary Sanchez could be more valuable than Paul Goldschmidt this year. I mean, the problem is, you know, so many first-round caliber hitters spill into the second round. I already have, like, Jose Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Aaron Judge. I mean, you could make an argument for any of them to be first.

They certainly had first round numbers last year. And I think you could make that argument easier than you could for Sanchez. Now, maybe, you know, you get toward the end of round two in a 12-team league. And for me, there's, like, George Springer with that last pick, or maybe Cody Bellinger. And I could understand Gary Sanchez ahead of them. But to me, the absolute earliest would be the end of round two. And, you know, we've talked before about how my preference is round three. And I want to clarify my statement.

I'm not telling anyone they should draft Gary Sanchez eighth, because if you have the eighth overall pick, you can just take him with your second pick. That would be much smarter. No one's taking him between those two picks. I'm just saying I think eighth is the earliest possible draft position that Gary Sanchez could justify. in 2008. And if you're in one of those 15 team leagues, I could see him at the turn. I don't think that's unreasonable.

I think, Scott, you're probably lowest on him in that regard. Why do you hate Gary Sanchez? Well, I mean, we're kind of, with early round picks, it's always concerning to assign them something they haven't done before. I mean, he has yet to perform like a first rounder. So drafting him in the first round, it seems like a stretch, especially since there are more than enough first rounders to go around. Yeah.

I think that's probably fair, but I also think his floor is probably still like the number two catcher. And so he just, he puts you, we've had this discussion a thousand times this offseason, but, you know, that's the answer. Scott, you're more comfortable with him at the turn in... At the round two, three turn. Yeah, at the round two, three turn in the 12 team league,

Heath and I would take him middle of round two at the earliest? Yeah, I mean, I've not actually taken him in the second round yet, I don't believe. But I absolutely think you can justify it. All right. Dave from Ontario, adding on to your holds conversation from last week, are you opposed to saves plus holds as a category? I've emailed about this before, but relievers are being used more often than ever. So why shouldn't league formats adjust to show that? You've often preached about adjusting certain things about links, so why not this?

sounds like you guys have something against Adam Ottavino. I just think holds is a stupid stat, and I think the distribution of holds across baseball, it's hard to really differentiate yourself in it. It's just kind of like everybody's going to get, everybody's going to have several relievers that'll get about 20 holds, and then what are you really competing for? You know, like, I don't know, I don't have a lot of interest in it.

I just want to say that wins for pitchers are also a stupid set. Saves are too. And if holds had been a part of fantasy baseball since the beginning of fantasy baseball, we would just overlook the fact that it's a stupid. I think that's all it is. It's just that they're all kind of... I think...

No, I think Holes is even more stupid. Because like I said, it's... There's not enough elasticity in the save. Am I using that economic turn, right? In the hold, yeah. Yeah, the difference between the first guy in Holtz, we talked about this last time we talked about it, the number one guy and the number 30 guy is not that wide,

whereas the difference in saves between number one and 30 is... And to some degree, I have that problem with quality starts, too. But it's, you know, now that innings are, now that six-innings starts are becoming so rare, that's less true. What I would prefer is saves plus holds minus blown saves. Okay. Sure. All right. Brian from Amherst, Ohio.

Hey, Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris, I have no idea who those guys are. I'm in a 10-team head-to-head nine categories league with the ninth pick. Normally waits for pitching until the fourth and fifth rounds. However, with the ninth pick, is it better to pair up Stanton? or Blackman with a top-tier pitcher? Or should he just wait, take Stanton and Correa, or Blackman-Machado combo, and get a pitcher later? This is a 10-team league, so a little shallower things,

things can get a little weirder in those shallower leagues. Yeah, I'm definitely all about grabbing one of the four super elite pitchers at the turn there, the first round one, round two turn. Because I think that is the clearest advantage, apart from maybe Sanchez. That's the clearest advantage you're going to find at any position. And I think with the way pitching has evolved over the last couple years, you really can't count on breakouts at that position the way you used to.

So I think the fact that it's a 10-team league, and I've talked about this before, the shallower the league, the more necessary it becomes to get advantages at position. because, you know, the bottom level player is going to be higher than it will in a deeper league. And so, you know, that's, again, that's one clear spot where you can get an advantage. I'll just wait and piggyback on the next question because it's kind of related. All right.

The next question comes from the listener with no name. My identity must remain anonymous because my league is made up of CBS podcast listeners. It plays in a 12-team six-by-six categories league, and he has a pick. At the end of the first round, he's thinking of taking two of the super aces with his first two picks. I haven't heard this strategy discussed on the podcast, and I would like to hear your thoughts. I did this in a mock draft. Yeah, and I would like to first scold you from not just reading his email address out so that all of his friends know who it is. Azer did not put it in the notes, and I'm too lazy to go look for it.

I understand that completely. You have access to the emails if you want to answer to that. I like, and this is something that's changed for me, and going back to the last question, This is something that's changed for me. I didn't really want to take a pitcher in the first round last year, period. I don't generally like drafting pitchers really early, especially two of them with your first two picks. In points leagues, I'm absolutely okay with this now. You have a pick at the end of the first round, even as early as 10?

I'm just totally okay with starting with Kershaw and Scherzer or Kershaw and Kluber, and I think you could really make a lot of hay that way. this is probably the league where I'm least likely to do it in a in a head-to-head categories league. Yeah, I mean, you prefer the relief pitcher heavy approach in a categories league. I did it in a head-to-head league, a head-to-head points league, 12 teams, where I took Kirchaw on sale with the 10th and 15th picks. The team's pretty good.

There are enough hitters, especially in a head-to-head league, that I think that makes sense. In a Roto League, where the rosters are all, a little deeper and you need 14 hitters as opposed to nine starting pitchers, the balance gets thrown off a little. Well, and we don't talk about it enough, but the lineups construction matters so much in these categories leagues. Yes.

Because when we did our head-to-head categories mock, and I didn't complain about it at all, but we did it with five starting pitchers, two relievers. There was no way to go relief pitcher heavy. We did it with points lineups, basically, in a categories league. If you play on one of the other sites, you likely just have a one catcher or three outfielder categories league. That really increases the value of pitchers and categories compared to our typical categories leagues. My Tout Wars draft is coming up Tuesday. We kind of had a draft to determine draft position for that last week.

And I was the second place finisher, so I picked second. The team that finished first picked the number one. pick, I picked the 12th pick because I wanted to make sure I got one of these aces, and to do that, I'll have to take them with that first pick of mine, the 12th pick. And I wanted to leave myself with one of what I considered to be a first round caliber player with my second pick, 19th pick. That was the earliest I could pick and still give myself that. But by doing that, I put myself in a position now where I potentially will have to begin with two of these pitchers if, let's say, Chris Sale is the player who falls to 19th.

You know, I could wind up starting my draft with Scherzer and Sail, and ultimately I'm okay with that. But I think one thing I want to point out here is that part of what makes it a viable option to draft these pitchers early is because there are so many alike hitters later in the draft, basically all the way through the draft in Leagues, 12 teams are fewer. But that range of hitters at the very beginning, 24 to 30 or so, really do stand out from the rest. So ideally, I wouldn't want to double up on it because you're missing your chance to get to draft from that group of hitters that can genuinely set you apart when the rest of the draft is going to be a bunch of hitters who probably won't. And that's it.

That's the end of the thought. It sounded like you had more. I was really expecting the hammered drop. There was just a real, there was a pregnant pause there. Yeah. All right. We will move on to some injuries, news, and notes before talking about spring, standouts, positive and negative, and whether they matter. But to get to the injuries, news and notes, Drew Pomeran's left his start with forearm tightness.

Sounds like it was more of a precautionary thing early in the spring. But we'll keep an eye on that because this is not a guy who has shown the ability to be a work. I think he's made 30 starts each of the last two seasons and has not topped 180 innings. Yeah, this is worth a slight downgrade for Pomerance. I had him towards the end of the draft anyway. He may be questionable whether he gets drafted. Okay. Paul DeYoung is getting a contract extension, so the Cardinals are putting some faith in him.

I would guess it's a cheaper version of the Evan Longoria contract where there's basically no risk for the team here. give a Ledman's D. as an extension, or am I making that up? I have no. I mean, they cut him, right? So I would guess not. But I can't remember that. Cole Hamill is opposed to a six-man rotation. I mean, starting pitchers are such creatures of habit. We see this a lot where some guys, you know, get pushed to the wrong day. They get blown up and, you know, they blame it on not having the right off day or the, you know, the wrong throwing schedule. But, you know, At Cole Hamill's age, I'm not sure it's going to hurt him, but we don't really have that much interest in Cole Hamill's at this point, right? No, I mean, he's got to get drafted, and the way Jeff Bannister breaks it down, he should still get 32 starts.

He should still have a chance at 200 innings. If he's good. Yeah, and apparently when they say six-man rotation, they don't necessarily mean every time through off days will. cause them to skip pitchers from time to time. So there will be fewer two-star possibilities for Hamils, though, is the point. And that's going to be, that's going to make it tougher to use even in points leagues, which is a better format at this point. I do have a little bit of interest in Hamels, just because I don't know that he should be,

he was bad last year. And if he's what he was last year, there's no form of regression or luck that's going to make him good. But he's going behind Danny Salazar, who we don't even know when he's going to pitch. He's going behind Pomerantz. He's going behind Dylan Bundy. He's going behind Charlie Morton, who's been good for about three months in his entire Major League career. Yep. So I think he is being drafted in the right place. I'm fine with taking him in the 19th round or whatever. I should also point out Mike Minor and Matt Bush are both off to bumpy starts.

And they're both transitioning from the bullpen. So these concerns are not minor. Well, right. It's very early. It's very springy. It may mean nothing. But if they can't come up with six viable options, then I guess they wouldn't go with a six-man rotation. Michael Fulmer was scratched from his start on Saturday with elbow soreness. That's a good sign for someone who's season ended with elbow surgery last year. I think he had the same, I want to say he had the same surgery as Stephen Matt's. He had the nerve repositioning surgery. I'll look it up.

What you really want is if you have a pitcher, it doesn't strike anybody out. and has a really low upside. If you could also have a super low floor because they have arm problems. Yeah, Michael Fulmer, what, rookie of the year 2016, but he's not been that good since. He's a contact heavy pitcher. I'm not sure I'm drafting him right now. Can we call him Michael Fulmore Williams?

Why would we do that? Michael Carter Williams, rookie of the year, actually not good. Oh, come on. You could do that, yeah. I think that's a pretty good nickname. Yeah, you can do that. Okay, thank you. Oriel's first basement, Chris Davis, had an MRI on his elbow, which revealed no structural damage.

But, I mean, I guess he's not, he's got high ceiling, right? He's not quite Michael Fulmer. He's a boomer bus pick still. No, he is exactly the type of player that I want to take at the end of the draft, and that's where he's available. I just put him in my sleepers call on that will come out this week, name brand sleepers or brand name sleepers. Name brand, brand, brand name. Name brand. They're both commonly used.

Anyway, I absolutely think he has 40-homer potential. I absolutely think he has 100 RBI potential, and he's available in the 20th round. That surgery for Michael Former was ulnar transposition surgery, which sounds like what Stephen Matt's had. Stephen Matt's, by the way, probably having the worst spring of any pitcher. Yeah, we will get to that when we talk about what matters and what doesn't in the spring. Troy Tillewiczki not expected to be ready for opening day due to bone spurs in his heel. That's not a great sign. I don't think anybody has any interest in Troy Tulowiczki.

Speaking of Aledmas Diaz. Yes. He did actually get a contract extension from the Cardinals. Four years, $8 million. He was not released by the Cardinals. He was traded. So the Blue Jays made an effort to acquire him. And now Troy Tulowiceky is not going to be...

They just have a crowded infield. That's the thing. Even with Troy Tullowiczs he heard, it's not clear if he's going to play every day. It's not clear if Yon Hervis. Solarte is going to play every day. I think those are both guys that we like... I'm going to go ahead and say, opening day, Jan Hervis. and a lead miss are both going to be in the Blue Jays lineup.

And I'm perfectly willing to draft John Hervis Salarte with a last round pick in a Roto League. I think there's still, you know, he's hit 20 home runs before. He's hit close to 300 before. I kind of like him. Kind of at this point, not really looking forward to Troy Toluizki coming back. I'm not really looking to, well, less so, Toulouitzky, but I would rather Solarte play than Devin Travis, too. And Devin Travis has yet to show he can last anyway.

So Mitch Hanaker has been cleared to swing a bat as he recovers from a hand injury. So, you know, hopefully he can get going. He's someone who definitely has some sleeper appeal. Archie Bradley, Brad Boxburger, Yoshihisa Hirano are in a wide open competition to close for the Arizona Diamondbacks. We're all hoping for Archie Bradley to get that, right? Well, I have enough shares in Brad Boxburger at this point that I'm hoping he'll win. And I do think Bradley's the best pitcher, so I guess for the greater good. I'll say Bradley, but I have my doubts that they want to go that route.

And I think Boxburger, former All-Star Closer, he has been dealing with a little bit of a health issue early this spring, but he's set to come back from it soon. And he's my favorite to win it. And Bradley hasn't been particularly good yet. Like, he's got four runs and three in a third inning. Four and a third inning. I would guess that's, well, I mean, I guess since it's a competition performance does matter, but they know what they're getting. from Bradley by now, I would assume. And let's not ignore Yoshihisa Hirano, a 11-year veteran of the Japanese league played for

Orix for 11 seasons and was one of the best closers in Japan, came over on a pretty cheap deal with the Diamondbacks, but he's someone who has said that part of the reason why he signed with the Diamondbacks because he has the opportunity to close, he wants to be the closure there, doesn't have Yeah, what's his K per 9 in Japan? 8.2 for his career, which I think you could probably translate that to over a strikeout per 9

just because the strikeout rates are lower in Japan. The last couple of years, he was over 10 strikeouts per 9 for about six years in a row and then 7.4 and 8.4 over the last two years. And he has a really fun, like, submarine-style delivery, right? I have never seen him pitch. So I cannot comment on that.

I can only tell you what the numbers look like. We're good at confirming each other's, like, 80% confidence statements in this podcast. Actually, no one's confirmed by statement yet. Heath says nothing with 80% confidence. It's 100% confidence. There was a question mark at the end of my... All right, well, while you looked that up, there is no timetable for Corey Seeger to make his Cactus League debut in the field, but he has been serving as a designated hitter.

This is from the elbow injury that he was dealing with at the end of last. Last season, are we concerned about Corey Seeger? It's concerning because it's the same thing he was dealing with last season. But I'll remind everyone that this point last year, we were panicking about Corey Seeger's help and letting him fall full rounds on draft day. And then he played opening day and it was no big deal. I think it was a hip issue at the time. So we've kind of been down this road with Seeger before.

But yeah, I would hope that after an offseason of rest, something from last year would be a non-issue. That's the concerning part to me. Bad news. It does not look like he has a fun submarine-style delivery. Just the normal delivery? It's probably still fun. I'm out on Harano.

Harano. Neil Walker, turned down a minor league contract with the Royals. That is insulting. Heath, your organization is insulting. I, too, am insulted that Neil Walker doesn't want to play for the Royal. Ahmed Rosario is dealing with a knee injury. I believe it's being classified as irritation right now. We'll monitor that for the next few days to see if Ahmed Rosario's injury will become an issue moving forward.

And now we'll move on to spring training standouts. I gave you guys a list of good and bad performances from the spring so far. very small sample size caveat that we're dealing with. Most pitchers have thrown, I mean, between the ones we're going to talk about, they've thrown between 1.2 and 6 innings. So maybe as much of a starts worth of innings. Pitchers who haven't been the worst pitcher imaginable have thrown between 4 and 6 innings for the most part. So we're still talking about very small sample size.

Basically what I want to do is ask you what matters. Okay, okay. And so we'll go through them. Just kind of stop me when something matters to you. Whitmerfield is 9 for 17, 5 extra base hits, only two strikeouts. Ronald Acuna is 9 for 21 with 1 extra base hit and 4 strikeouts. I think that matters. I think he was the single player whose spring performance I wanted to monitor the most.

That one extra base hit was a home run, and it was an opposite field home run off a major league pitcher, Masahiro Tanaka. So that was cool. Strikeout rates low. Overall, I mean, good batting average. No reason to think his timetable is going to be slowed by this. I'm still expecting to see him in mid-April. Fernando Tatis Jr. 8 for 21, four extra base hits. I believe he went four for four with a dong on Sunday.

He struck out seven times, stole three bases. Really? No? I mean, yeah, it's... He's getting slept on in the, you know, child of former majors. leaguers who are also top prospects right now but that are also like dynasty and keeper he got to he got to double a last year like there's didn't do much he's not he's not going to make the majors this year okay but like i am encouraged that he's what 19 and hitting so well

Tyler glasnow five innings four earned runs no walks eight strikeouts yes definitely matters he might he might wind up on sleepers 2.0 that i'm going to be working on this week uh Absolutely dominated AAA. I don't know if I've seen a pitcher pitch as well as he did in AAA down the stretch over a stretch of about 90 innings and not become a major. Like he was, he had an ERA under two. He had like, I think his FIPP was like 1.4 in that stretch. He was absolutely utterly dominant and then got back to the majors and walked like 13.

What was 1.4? I think his FIP at AAA. FIP. Okay. I thought you should whip and I was like, yeah. No, it was much lower because he was, yeah, he stopped walking guys. But then he came up at the end of the major league season and was awful again. I will have Tyler Glass now on as many teams as I possibly can.

Yeah. And I might have him on zero teams by the end of April. We'll see. Madison Bumgarner, nine strikeouts, two earn runs in four and two-thirds innings. He's healthy. That's the only reason. No, Cindergards, same thing. Six strikeouts, five innings pitched.

He's healthy. Jason Kipnis, five home runs. He's eight for 14. I'm going to move him up just a little bit. I had basically ranked Jason Kipness as if I don't want to draft him ever. I give up on him. I'm not quite as ready to give up on him. Now, it is really early.

He may be in great shape right now. He's still struggled a lot last year. I'll move up a little bit. I mean, he missed time with hamstring injury and with a shoulder injury. And, you know, the last time we saw him do that poorly. 2014. He was battling an oblique injury. I don't think he was healthy in the spring last year either. Yeah, he had a comment, and injuries affect different players differently.

He had a comment about how when you're injured, this was after he hit his fifth home run Sunday. When you're dealing with an injury, you're spending time that you would normally spend on video and in cage work, just getting treatment on your injuries. And so, I mean, you put it that way. It makes sense why the struggles would co-euvreous. inside with that. You know, five home runs and 14 at bats already. It is Arizona.

It is spring training. The most he had ever hit in spring training before was three and 60 at bats. So he's definitely on a roll right now. And I agree. I mean, just, he's only a year removed from a 23 homer 42 double 15 steel season. So John Heyman reporting Paul DeYoung's deal. It's a little different than Aled Ms. Diaz's. Okay.

Who got $8 million over four years. Paul DeYoung is getting $26 million over six years. Okay, so they bought out one free agent year. Yeah, that's a commitment. Yeah. Not so much of a commitment that if he's bad, they can't just bench him. That's bench player money, but that's a commitment for sure.

All right, let's talk about a guy who has a career 571 batting average in the majors. Miguel Andehar, 8 for 19, 4 home runs, 8 RBI. Is he playing his way into the conversation for a starting role? in that Yankees lineup? The biggest question for him is defense. Because I think if that, if he had already cleared that hurdle, maybe they wouldn't have gone out and gotten Drury, or if they did, it would be a second base insurance for Glaver Torres coming back

from Tommy John surgery. And Torres hasn't really done much of anything this spring. So, you know, there's a chance it could still play out that where we're opening day, Andohar's at third, and Drury's at second. that's just not how they were handicapping it when they acquired Drury. So still some hurdles to clear here, but definitely an interesting scenario unfolding. Scott, does Scott Kingery hitting three home runs in his first week of spring training matter?

There's nowhere for him to play. Yeah, there's nowhere for him to play. The thing is, like, they've given him a start at center field. He's played some shortstop this spring. But the outfield's already crowded. They're already juggling playing time in the outfield. Right. And presumably shortstop's going to J.P. Crawford.

It's not a position Kingery has much exposure to in the minor, so I don't see them doing that full time. They're just trying to make versatile players. So, no. I mean, yes, because it means this is something we're going to be talking about all season and Saza Hernandez, better not stumble out of the gate, but no in terms of is he going to have a lineup spot on opening day.

It'll take an injury. What about a former top prospect who hit 18 homers last season and reworked his swing? Austin Hedges, six for ten, four home runs. Does it matter? It probably matters just a little bit because he's a catcher, and there are not that many enough good catchers, and we're already moving Mejia,

a little higher in our rankings just because of his upside. And what if he actually gets to play and then we have a good catcher? And what if Austin Hedges just isn't quite as terrible? Austin Hedges for his career at AAA. It is the PCL-AlPasso, but 23 homers, 944 OPS and 103 games. He's 25 years old. There is still potential for Austin Hedges. Might work his way into the sleeper conversation.

Amir Garrett, five innings, 10 strikeouts, no walks, no hits. Hey, I mean, if you want to work your way into a starting rotation spot, this is how you do it. And he, he flashed some real upside early in the season. I remember in the early waiver wire columns, he got written about a lot, just couldn't keep the ball in the yard, plays in the wrong parks to have Homer issues. He had 28% home run to fly ball rate last year, even if you're awful, and he gave up like a 40% hard contact rate. So people were just hitting him hard. But even if they're hitting you that hard, that's some regression coming in your direction. The big thing for him is not even the 10 strikeouts.

It's the zero walks in five innings. I think he was five walks per nine in the majors last year. Yes. You can't do that. Yeah, Brian Price, the Reds manager, who is a former pitching coach, made some comments after this most recent start Saturday, or maybe it was Friday, where Garrett had six strikeouts in three innings. I'm not even sure it was a start, but that was the appearance,

about how he doesn't have the hitch in his day. delivery this time around and just looks a lot more mechanically sound. He also, coming into spring training, had Garrett handicapped pretty low in the Reds rotation battle. Now, you know, if he keeps doing this, I don't see how they don't give him a job. And I would want to see them give him a job. And it's not like the competition. Yeah, but it's not like the competitions especially fierce.

No. There are some guys in there that we think are interesting. But outside of Castillo, there's nobody really that we think. think is irreplaceable. I mean, well, I would assume if they're healthy, Descliffeani, Homer Bailey, and Brandon Finnegan are all in just because of seniority. Yeah. Desckelfini has been hit hard so far. Yeah, beyond that, yeah, the jobs are up for grabs and, you know, it might mean it, it might be at the expense of Robert Stevenson, who's somebody we've talked about

because he's relief pitcher eligible and he had a strong finish last year. I don't think he's been good so far. Yeah, he hasn't been. And like the path for Garrett, But to be a good pitching prospect, come up to the majors, and have terrible control and get hit really hard, that does not preclude you from becoming a good pitcher. That has happened to a lot of good pitching prospects in their first year or two, including the next guy we're going to talk about. Blake Snell, only one walk in six innings of work, also one hit, one earned runs, six strikeouts. Just hopefully build on what he did in the second half last year where he really improved his control. one of all of our

and I think the industry's favorite breakout candidates. But you would think that, but his ADP is still down

around 200. I'm going to make an admission of mine in the month of March to change that. Okay. Because I think

if he shows good control, then he could be a top 30 starting pitcher. Yeah, I think that's totally fair.

He's got 200 strikeout potential. Let's talk about some standouts on the minus side and just tell me if

these matter. We'll start with two of the industry's favorite breakout hitters. Domingo Santana, six for 17, so still hitting, but nine strikeouts in about 18 plate appearances, any concern there. Nope.

Not any new concerns. I mean, there's still an inherent playing time concern. And Domingo Santana still being Domingo Santana, right? That's kind of what it is? Well, yeah, I mean, he strikes out a lot. He is a big swing hard in case you hit it type of guy. And he also hits it hard, and he runs fast. Yoan Moncada hits it hard, runs fast, but he's one for 16, seven strikeouts, no extra base hits, one stolen base.

Any concern there? Scott's like, I don't know if he almost vomited or if he was laughing at Yoan Mancato, one of the two. Either way, I share Scott's concern. Yes, I am, this is enough to be a little concerned about Mancada. The flaws are real. All the potential in the world, but he has not shown it. Other than last September, no, he hasn't. And not even the last couple years in the miners have been,

that the number's been that great. This is, it's turning into Byron Buxton. You know, the good September, what, 2016 for Byron Buxton? Or 2015, he had the good September. Struggled on 2016, had a great finish again. Now he's starting to build on it. It's just, no, you got your years off there. It was 2016, 2017, because we're in 2018 now.

That doesn't sound right. That means I turned 30 this year. that doesn't sound right. Some of our favorite late-round sleeper-type pitchers, Dylan Bundy, four and one-third innings, ten earned runs, no strikeouts, three walks. I mean, it doesn't really mean a lot to me. Okay. Not to me.

What about you, Heath? No. I mean, I wasn't that excited about him in the first place. He's someone who's coming pretty much free in drafts. Like, he's around 200th overall, maybe a little lower, I would guess. Like, he and Kevin Gosman, I feel like, is. It's so transparent what their success depends on. Gosman needs to throw his splitter.

And he is. And he was very good in his most recent start, very bad in his first. Yes, yes. Now, yeah, Gosman historically has been somebody who's introduced that splitter over the course of the season, which leads to some pretty extreme splits. But he says he's throwing all his pitches from the gatego this year. But Bundy, it's the slider-cutter hybrid that he reintroduced to his arsenal last year. And it was a good pitch.

It had a great April. when he featured it about 20 to 25% of the time, had a great August when he threw it about 20, 25% of the time. The middle months, it was closer to 15% of the time, and it was ugly. So that's all I'm really watching for him. Is it unfair to say that, like, Dylan, we're hoping Dylan Bundy becomes Trevor Bauer?

No, but there are people who think Trevor Bauer can be an ace. Right. I'm saying Dylan Bendy becomes what Trevor Bauer did last year, where he's like, oh, he's not awful anymore. No, because Trevor Bauer still only had, like, a four years. So like what Trevor Bauer did last year was be really terrible and then really, really good. Trevor Bauer's second half of the season was exceptional. He was one of the better starting pitchers in baseball.

Stephen Mats has not been one of the better starting pitchers in baseball. He has allowed 10 earned runs in one and two thirds innings. He has one strikeout. He's walked two batters in each of his appearances. It's very Matt Harvey, circa 2017 spring training, where every quote is, well, I feel good. I feel like I'm in better shape than I have been in years past. And the manager's just like, well, he's just got to fine-tune some stuff. And he keeps going out.

I mean, it's only two appearances, but he's getting shelled. I haven't been able to find. This might be another Bundy Gosman situation where his success might depend on the slider. He didn't throw it last year, said because of the elbow issues. Had this nerve surgery in the off-season supposed to fix his elbow issues. I haven't found any evidence that he's throwing the slider. if he's not, we saw what he was last year. He doesn't have a swing and miss pitch without that.

And to be honest, his rookie season, his swinging strike rate was below average also. He introduced the slider late in that season. Oh, okay. Well, the thing about Matt's is that he's not guaranteed a job because only one of him and Wheeler can make it. And Wheeler's coming back from his own health issues, but they're both being stretched out to start this spring. There was some talk that maybe Wheeler could start the year in the bullpen,

but when spring training opened, Miki Calloway backed off of that and said, no, he's competing to start. I mean, regardless of what Wheeler's done, I think Matt's losing this competition right now. Yeah, I had moved Matt's and Harvey probably three or four weeks ago. I realized how, like, they were not in my top 350, 400. sure. And I was like, you know what, I'm going to move them up to the point that they're worth a late round flyer.

And so I moved them into my top 250, both of them. Matt Harvey's staying there and maybe even moving up closer to the 220 range. There's no reason to draft Stephen Matt's right now. Agreed. Miles Mickelos was a very good pitcher in Japan over the last couple of years. Pitching Eric Thames. I mean, Eric Thames was actually good last spring and last April. He's trying to be pitching.

Eric Thames and right now it's not going well. Ten earned runs, one walk, two strikeouts and four and two-thirds innings. Even as a late-round sleeper, not someone worth drafting right now because I don't think anybody thinks he has much upside. Nope. And Robbie Ray has gotten off to a rough start. Five earned runs and two and two-thirds innings, three walks, three strikeouts. There's no human word spring training.

And that was mostly in the second start for what it's worth. I mean, one ugly outing can obviously skew a spring line. All right, let's talk about some fantasy combos. We're going to take a couple of players and do a would you rather have this combo versus that combo. We'll start with a starting pitcher and a first base mode. We'd rather invest early in Cory Kluber and settle on Jose Abraeu? Or go with Joey Vado and Jacob de Grum. Jacob de Grum, not pitching in spring training games yet,

but I believe he's expected to make his debut this week. Which would you rather have? Corey Kluber and Jose Abraeu, or Joey Votto and Jacob de Grom. I think I know Scott's answer. I don't know my answer. In a points league, it's Klupor and Abraeu, and it's pretty easy for me. And Roto, it gets a little bit more difficult. See, I was almost thinking points.

I'd rather have Votto and DeGrom because I feel like the Votto-A-U gap is bigger in that format. I mean, the Kluber and DeGrom gap is also probably bigger in that format. Both Abraeu and Vado are really good in both. I don't know if either one is someone that I necessarily think is that much better in one format versus another. The reason I feel that way is because Abraeu doesn't walk much, but he always has a 290 batting average. But he also doesn't strike out much. He gets good counting stats, so he's still very good in points. He might be a little better in Roto.

Votto might be a little better in points, but Votto's really good in Roto too, because he's going to hit he's going to be one of the best batting average guys in baseball. I'll tell you this much. Kluber is a bigger priority at the point where you draft him in Votto for me than Vado is. That's why I knew what your answer was. Right. I don't know that Abreu would be my choice to pair with him. But I'll take that.

I'll take that combo, okay? Heath? I will take Cluber and Abraeuio in points. I will take Cluber and Abraeu as well. No, I'll take Votto and de Grom, because I just, I haven't really found myself drafting Kluber yet. Next combo, Whitmerfield and Christian Yelich, or Brian Dozier and Andrew McCutcheon. So would you rather have the early round second baseman or the early round outfielder to pair? Dozier for me is the best player in this group.

Yep. And so I will take that side. Dozier and McCutcheon for Heath. I think I would go Dozier and McCutcheon as well. There are, I think, fewer questions on that side of the ledger. I know McCutcheon's been up and down, but that Giants lineup's going to be at least as good as the Pittsburgh one. I don't think he's moving into a worst park for right-handed batters.

So I'm not that worried about that. And I have questions about both Marifield and Yowich. Scott is... Scott's not going to participate in this game. He's still vomiting over the performance. Who was it? Of Yohan Moncada. Stephen Mats didn't help.

So I will play the game. Next one. Or Scott, do you want to get in here? Yeah, sorry. Yeah, sorry. I'm going to Christian Yelich or Brian Dozier and Andrew McCutcheon. I want Maryfield and Yelich, especially in Roto leagues. They will steal more base.

Yeah. Points of leagues I could be talked to do the other, but the thing is I'm just not excited about McCutcheon this year. Disagree. Nolan Aeronado and Lorenzo Cain or Travis Shaw and Charlie Blackman. So which would you rather have a brewer and a rocky or a rocky and a brewer? Oh, man. I think they've got a brewery at course field. I would like to choose Travis Shaw's side, but I can't.

Okay. I'll take Aeronado and Kane. Does the format matter for this one? No. I don't think it does. Yeah, it doesn't, it doesn't a lot for me either. I also want the Aeronado side. That's like the pizza-filled pretzel of combos.

Okay. Yeah, that's a good one. Yeah. That's a good combo. I don't remember any of the other combos. Isn't there like cheese-filled cracker or something? I like combos. Is that weird?

I don't know that I've ever had one. You've never had a combo? They're disgusting. Yeah, I don't think I've ever heard. It's like a processed cheese product inside. But it's delicious. I don't like to put that kind of stuff in my body. Heath's body is a temple.

Fectual. As he's wearing a brewery shirt. By the way, I don't know. This would be a fine test of the new mics all my coughing in the background. I don't know how much of that is being picked up. Real bad. We need to get the cough buttons. Do they work yet?

No, they're here. No, they're here. No, can you hear me? I'm holding it down. Oh, okay. Yes. I was telling you they don't. Are we done with the combos?

Andrew Benintendi and Francisco Lindor. Or Aaron, Judge, and Alex Bregman. There is so much fun to be had here. I'm going to go with Judge and Bregman. I don't think Scott is. I'm thinking it over. I'm looking. I will go with...

You know what? I am going to go Judge and Bregman because I like Bregman that much more than Benintendi. I think I would go Benintendi and Lindor. Well, that is not surprised anyone. You've railed on Alex Bregman's ADP, and you think that Aaron Judge is a 220 hitter. I think there's a chance that I would say this.

Judge and Bregman have more upside. I think they both have considerable downside at their current costs. I think that's a fair statement, but I don't think especially, well, in either case, I think the percentage chance of the downside is still fairly low. I think it's pretty high with Judge. Bregman, I think, has a pretty safe floor. It's more about the price. But Judge, I do think he's got just a really large and wide potential.

I mean, considering we're comparing him to Lindor here, we're talking late second round where we're drafting Judge. If he's just 80% of what he was last year, isn't that still basically a second round? I think there's a chance he's 50% what he was last year. There's a chance. And not like a slim, I think there's a chance that he's like a 33 homer, 2.30 hitter with no injuries. With no injuries. I think that's with... I know it does, but I think that's within the realm of possibility for his talent level.

And Benettony and Lendor, they might hit $290 and combined for 50 steals, which is hard to come by. It's possible. And we'll finish up the show with more of your emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com is the email address. We will try to read as many as we can. Moving forward, just some programming. notes, Tuesday and Wednesday should be the two-part starting pitcher preview. It'll go very much like the outfield preview.

I would guess Adam expected to be back tomorrow. And then after that, we will be able to get to even more of your emails, even more of your questions, even more of the latest coming and goings in the Arizona Cactus League. What is it? The Orange League? Grapefruit. Come on. Orange League. Aren't you a native of South Florida?

Yeah, I don't like grapefruit. though. No one likes grapefruit. That's true. I like grapefruit. Well, I was going to say the only people that like grapefruit are people that are old enough that most of their taste buds have died. But you are actually that old. I loved it as like a little kid. That's not surprising. You cut out the little triangle. That's stupid. Disgusting. Yeah. Your mind at that point was like 55 already. On the other hand, Heath and I both love really, really bitter beers. So who are we to judge? Let he who is without sin Cast the first grapefruit

We have emails Email from Ross What are the chances Jose de Leon gets in the raise rotation Now that Brent Honeywell is out of the picture I will say Brent Honeywell's injury Does not necessarily change Jose de Leon's chances Of making the rotation

They were not planning on going with a five-man rotation Until May anyway Right Jose de Leon's chances of getting into the rotation On opening day Remain at 0.01% his chances of being in the rotation sometime this year, I think, are like 99%. If he stays healthy, which he didn't last year.

Right. I had trouble staying healthy. It hasn't been effective in the majors when he's gotten the chance, but I still like the talent level. B-Ri? B-Ree. It's B-Dash-Ri. In a head-to-head categories league should starting pitchers be valued less.

They play a big role in points in Roto, obviously. But in ERA and WIP categories, your studs are mostly going one time a week, and any bad performance from any of your pitchers can undo their good performance for those categories. Winds are also unreliable, so I'd really be using a second round pick on sale, or a fourth on DeGrom for quality starts and K's. Our head-to-head categories leagues, do they make starting pitchers less valuable? Yes, yes. Unless it's set up so you have to draft five, right?

Yes, I think that is a very, very, very small minority of head-to-head categories leagues. Very. Yeah, my main head-to-head categories league has roto rosters. And there are several of them that will have like you draft two starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, and three pitchers. Yeah. But it's really rare to see our head-to-head points lineups being used for a head-to-categories league unless Scott White is a commissioner. No, I think that's the default setting. Dear Ronald, Kyle, and Mike.

Scott, tell us who they are. Ronald Acuna, Kyle Wright, and Mike Saraka, Braves prospects. Yes. Yeah. Justin plays in a multiple daily, multiple daily locking head-to-head points leagues. There's a lot of qualifiers there, where you have to set a number of starting pitcher slots and an RP slots.

That makes it advantageous to have relief pitchers who can start every day as starting pitchers, basically the opposite of Sparps. opposite of Sparps? Praps? No, because it'd be R-P-A-S-P. Repaps? Rapaps.

Last year, there was Iglesias and Davensky. Do you guys know of any pitchers that fit the bill? Starting pitchers who will be relief pitchers or who may gain eligibility early in the season, not necessary for them to get saves looking for help in the ratios? You're on the clock. Well, Brad Peacock. Brad Peacock. Yeah.

Not that I don't think he won't make starts eventually, but... This is a hard question to answer because it's going to depend a lot on how spring training works out. If Stephen Mats writes things, Zach Wheeler could be in the rotation and could be a pretty valuable piece as a reliever. I think he's someone who could play up as a reliever, but Stephen Mats also has options left. I would bet on him starting in the minors at this point. Um, does Matt Andries qualify for the raise? Did he get starting pitcher eligible last year? I believe he's, I believe so.

Now, when they go to five, when they go to the five man rotation later in April, I suspect he'll be the fifth man. Um, and then the brewers have like 17 starting pitchers, most of which are actually bad as starting pitchers. Sure. But one or two of them, I would expect we'll be in the, we're talking about just for names, Ulyse Chasin, Yovani Gallardo, Wade Miley. Junior Gera. A couple of those guys are going to end up in the bullpen. It won't be Chasin. And could be decent.

Yeah, he's got a big deal. All right. Jared, there aren't many left-handed starting pitchers in the NL Central. Can you talk about the advantage that gives a lefty-heavy lineup like the one the Pirates are building for this year? They've got Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Colin Moran, Adam Frazier, and Corey Dickerson. You're only going to face your own division. 72 times, I believe, which is a lot.

It's almost as big as your home park. It's a lot, but it's not so much that it would change how I go about drafting those guys. Like, you're probably talking about maybe a difference of 10 to 15 starts over the course of a season compared to a typical lineup. And then with starting pitchers, you actually just never know what a rotation is going to look like in two months. Yeah, I'm caught off guard here because I haven't. I haven't researched the handedness, the breakdown of handedness by division. So I don't, we're just kind of going, we're just kind of taking his word for the idea that the NL Central has significantly less than other divisions. Well, the Cubs have two.

The Reds, I don't think they have any. The Cubs have two, Lester and Kantana. Yes. The Reds might have Amir Garrett. Maybe. Might have Amir Garrett. Brandon Finnegan is one. The Brewers might have, Brent Souter, or Wade Miley, and or Wade Miley.

Josh Hader's lefty too. Yeah, it's obviously a bullpen piece. And, you know, that's worth bringing up too. But that's my point is that the opening day rotation isn't the rotation. To try to help answer the question also, if that makes an impact, it will make its biggest impact in the first and last month of the season because those are much more weighted towards division games. Generally, I assume that's the same again this year.

All right. And the last email, John from Boston, has a question about pitchers and inning limits that he was hoping we could discuss. Are there any pitchers who had inning limits last year who will be unleashed this year? No concern about them skipping starts in the second half or being shut down. Maybe guys like McCullors, Jordan Montgomery, mainly younger pitchers. Luis Castillo comes to mind as a high-profile example of this. Based on his draft price, everyone is assuming he's going to throw 175 to 180 innings, I would guess,

because people are really jumping on Luis Castillo right now. Scott, can you think of any other ones? I think this is going to be a less safe assumption this year and going forward than, you know, it's obviously something traditionally we've just assumed in fantasy. Oh, yeah, 30-any inquiry. Oh, this is going to be the year he goes 200 innings. Like, I don't know that they're growing many. Nobody goes 200 innings.

Yeah. You know, and we don't mean literally nobody. I mean, Luis Severino did it for the first time last year. did it last year, 15 did it the year before. Right. It's never something you should assume. And even 180 innings is becoming a dangerous assumption. So in theory, Dylan Bundy should be equipped to do that this year. Castillo, like you said, I'm not counting on McCullors.

No. No, not Jordan Montgomery either. And that's less about skipping starts and more about just, I'm not sure how deep those guys are going to go into the stars. I think Jose Rios could be a guy that makes the leap into that 200 ending. I would agree. For me, that's more about effectiveness. Right. Yeah.

I guess I could see like Alex Wood doing it, but the Dodgers are also one of those teams that likes to mix and, you know, they made the 10-day DL. If you set the over under at 170 on every Dodgers starting pitcher except Clayton Kershaw, I would probably take the other. Did Nelson Lament get shut down last year? I don't think so. Yeah, he could.

Maybe he could do it. John Gray is someone who there are no injury concern or inning concerns for him. He didn't pitch a lot last year. Yeah, that's a good. But that was mostly because he had a freak foot injury in spring training and didn't pitch until May. That's a good one because they actually consider him the staff ace. Jameson-Tayone is probably someone who could break into that 180 innings last year. His issue, you know, beyond just missing about a month because of surgery,

he also just hasn't been able to pitch deep into games. A lot of them, it's just can James and Tyone get more effective? Can Jose Barrios be more effective? Can these guys become consistent six to seven inning guys? Yeah. Maybe like Mike Clevenger. Mike Clevenger, although we don't know if he's going to open in the rotation. Yeah, it's looking pretty likely, though, since Danny Salazar still not ready to pitch.

Jacob Ferrea probably could be unleashed. Could be. So some of those guys. And of course, which pitchers will face inning? limits. McCullors probably. I don't think he's ever going to be. The Dodgers. Everybody on the Dodgers. They've got a lot of talented pitchers and a lot of guys that you really like. Would Sean Newcomb be on an innings limit this year? Probably not. I don't know if, yeah, I mean, he'll limit himself and just the number of options I think will limit him. I wouldn't worry too much about it going into the season. Like you shouldn't be drafting those young

pitchers who might have innings issues that high anyway, because there's a lot of things that can go wrong well before they hit their innings limit. Like, you should treat every pitcher who hasn't achieved it before as if, like, 160 innings, 150 innings maybe is even the cap. Like, that's where we are right now. And if Louise Gahara reaches the point where we have to worry about an innings limit, his season has been wildly successful and you've reached a return on your end. I think that's the way to look at it.

For most of these guys. You should push the younger starting pitchers down your draft board more than their talent might suggest just because they're unproven. You don't know how much they're going to throw. But if they reach their innings limit, it's probably a successful season anyway. I think we've reached our limit. Yes. I think so.

We've talked that through quite enough. Scott, are you going to be okay? You almost died mid-podcast. I did. I got a cough drop in my mouth. You probably hear it rattling against my teeth. now, which is disgusting in its own way. But it did stop the coughing.

Get me out of this room. Thank you, Scott White. Thank you, Heath Cummings. Adam, please come back. We'll see you guys tomorrow.