Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/12: Breakouts! And Your Emails! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 12, 2019

Who is breaking out in 2019? Scott tells you why he loves Jesse Winker (2:00) and Heath tells you why he loves Shane Bieber (5:00) and then we'll have plenty more for you later in the show ... News and notes (9:05) as we look at the ATL rotation, Chris Sale's velocity and more. Also, find out how to get into the Podcast League (19:15)! Then it's back to breakouts (23:00). Scott and Heath have a lot of names to get to. Scott is particularly excited about the Rockies this year and Heath thinks Eloy Jimenez is a steal ... Team Name Tuesday (44:00), emails about players we haven't talked about enough (46:15) and the Breakoutometer (53:00) with players like Rhys Hoskins, Luis Castillo, Gregory Polanco and more ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris. All right, we got a good one for you today. Welcome to Fantasy Baseball today, everybody.

Adam Azer, Scott White, Heath Cummings, and the triumphant return of a very sick Chris Towers. How you feeling there, buddy? You're feeling, Chris. Better. Thank you. Thank you. Feeling fine.

Okay, good. We were worried about you. Everybody was very worried. Now, listen, I deprived our listeners and Kreef and Scott of the Players We Love show that we usually do on Valentine's Day. This is basically going to be that show. We're talking about our favorite breakouts today. We're going to get the breakout O-Meter out. I'll say a bunch of players' names, and you'll tell me how likely they are to break out.

It is a decent round of team name Tuesday, but a great round of emails at Fantasy Base. Baseball at cbsi.com. Now, we heard Chris is feeling like, okay. Heath, how are you feeling today? Fantastic. This is the best show of the year. I'm just happy to be here. Scott, how about you?

Are we sure the players we love are a breakout for us? I mean, what if it was somebody we said during the Sleeper show? This is not necessarily the player you love. These are players you love. You know what, on Friday? On, let's commence. I'll admit here. On Thursday,

on Thursday, we will all announce the one player that we are owning, the love of our fantasy lives in 2019. That would be on Thursday. But, Scott, kick off the Tuesday show with your favorite breakout for 2019. Well, if this isn't the player, I love. It's certainly a player I have strong, strong feelings for. And that is Jesse Winker, who might be. be my most drafted outfielder.

And that, you know, I was excited about him even before, uh, the news of him coming to spring training supposedly at 100% health after having shoulder surgery last season. David Bell, the new manager in Cincinnati confirming that he likes him as an everyday player. And in fact, might bat him lead off because his on base skills are so good. So what was maybe an abat concern before then is now one of Winker's strengths. But what I love most about Jesse Winker is the batta ball profile. The fact he walked more than he struck out in his first extended look in the majors last season. His line drive rate, the all fields hitting, the entire bat of ball profile.

It looks like the typical Joey Votto season. Joey Votto had kind of a weird year last year, but the typical Votto season, Winker looks just like it. He profiles for a high average. profiles for a very high on base percentage. And the biggest gripe would be, okay, in the upper minors, he didn't hit for a lot of power. Well, already he's shown more power in the majors, and given the distribution of the home runs hit last year, the fact that there wasn't very many early on, and then there was a big surge right before he succumbed to surgery. I still think there's 20, maybe even 25 home or upside here. And with everything else he's providing, I mean,

he may be an out-and-out stud in points leagues, and even in roto, the fact that you're getting batting average help with decent power that late, he should still be really good. Jesse Winker is going 199th overall right now, according to fantasy pros. So he is a top 200 player. How about that? Scott, do you have concerns about the lefty-righty splits? He batted 2-11 slug 333 against lefties last season, and he is a lefty. I mean, to the extent it could impact playing time with Matt Kemp there, I'm a little concerned. But, again, David Bell so far has indicated that he wants Winker at the top of his lineup.

He wants him there, at least close to every day. I don't think it's going to impact playing time a ton. And to what extent it does will be made up for the fact by he's batting so high in the order. Yeah, it's very strange right now because I'm on his player page on CBS Sports.com. and I'm watching a video of us talking about him. So that's weird. But that's cool. Yeah, we're on video now.

In case you guys don't know, you can see it on CBSports.com. And if you go to a player page, for example, you'll see a bunch of our videos. And you'll get to know what we look like. In this video that I'm watching, Chris is wearing a very nice cardigan. Must have been cold that day, Chris. I think that was one of the days that it got a little chilly.

Yeah. It was in the 50s. I think you're wearing a very nice shirt today. Adam. Is he wearing a nice shirt? Yeah, does look like he's wearing a nice shirt. He doesn't need an excuse to wear a card. Chris loves getting the fall wear out.

Heath, who's your favorite breakout? I've talked about it a lot. I think everyone knows now. I'm a believer. Not a trace of doubt in my mind. Shane Bieber last year was phenomenal in every way, except that he threw too many strikes. He has remarkable control. Has shown it all through the minor league, showed it again last year.

What he showed last year that we were a little concerned about was that he can miss bats a little bit too, had a swinging strike rate in the double digits, which is plenty good for him with his control and his ground ball rate. And I think even as much as we've talked about Shane B, we've maybe undersold what his upside is. Unlike all these other young pitchers, he doesn't have any innings concerns. Between the minor leagues and the majors last year, he threw over 190 innings. He's on a team that gives him a chance to win like a Rick Porcelo total of games, 16, 17,

18 games, and he could legitimately give you a low-3s ERA. This is a guy who's available in the 12th, 13th, 14th round of some drafts, and he's a dark horse Cy Young candidate. Heath, would you rather have Shane Bieber or you Darvish? Shane Bieber. Shane Bieber or Cole Hamels. Oh, Bieber easily. Bieber's good.

There was a really interesting piece on CBSSports.com last week from Alex Chamberlain. the kind of, it didn't like knock down the Bieber hype, but it went through and tried to understand why it might not necessarily have been bad luck that he so badly underperformed his peripherals last year. And one of the really interesting things that he found was Bieber got a lot of strikeouts with his fastball, even though he had a well below average swinging strike rate with it. On the other hand, he didn't get a lot of fast strikeouts with his slider, which was a really, really good swing-strike pitch. So it's going to be interesting to see how those two things were.

I think, like you said, he probably throws too many strikes. And, you know, the starts where he walked more guys, and it's usually only two. But he was better in those starts than when he didn't walk anyone. Okay. So Shane Bieber, he's going about 150th overall, 158th, according to Fantasy Pros. That's Heath's favorite breakout. Scott's favorite breakout is Jesse Winker. All right, you know what, Chris?

You deserve it. Oh, I get one? Yeah, well, actually, first, Heath, do you know who sings that song? I'm a believer? Well, multiple people have sung that song, but originally it was the monkeys. Right, but we were looking for Smashmouth. Obviously, they did it best. Well, the monkeys are a lot better than Smash Mouth.

Chris, who's breaking out this year? Who is breaking out this year? Okay, let's go with... Josh Bell hasn't got a lot of talk on this podcast so far, but I think there's some really interesting stuff going on with him. Full season statistics are typically more predictive than half season statistics. However, he was a swing changed guy last year and he got off to a miserable start. However, in the second half of the season, you did start to see him elevate the ball more.

His strikeout to walk ratio improved. It was almost one to one in the second half. There's raw power here. You know, he hits the ball. When he hits a line driver, fly ball. It's 94 miles per hour. So there is power there. it's just about getting it into games.

He started doing that more in the second half. He's got good plate discipline. He doesn't strike out that much. I think there's a chance Josh Bell breaks into the top 12 at first base. Yeah, he's got great plate discipline. In fact, 383 on base percentage after the All-Star break with seven homers and 50 games. So, Bell, maybe better if you don't have batting average. If you're an OBP league or a points league, you can take a look at Josh Bell.

So that's Jesse Winker, Shane Bieber, and Josh Bell as breakouts. And we'll have more for you a little bit later. Guys, let's do some news and notes. Mike Fultenevich will not be ready for opening day. He has elbow soreness. Mike Soroka won't be ready for opening day. He has shoulder issues. Scott, which Braves pitchers are you drafting?

I think Tuki Touss definitely in, especially the way his past two starts have gone. And you can call him a late round sleep. There's a lot of strikeout potential there. Maybe some inconsistencies with the control, but hopefully that's something he can work out. And Kyle Wright's been the big riser for the Braves. this spring, the fifth overall pick in the draft in 2017. He spent the offseason working with his old coaches at Vanderbilt. Also, his old Vanderbilt teammate, Walker Bueller, picked up a cutter from him.

And I think he has like 11 strikeouts and eight innings this spring has really impressed the Braves with how much better he looks after what was kind of a disappointing season spent mostly at AA last year. So Fultenevich, beginning the year on the IL and all like. I think Wright, at least gets one turn at the start there and obviously is higher in the pecking order than we may have assumed at the start of the season. So in deeper leagues, I consider him, Kyle Wright, a bit of a sleeper as well. Is Tucson a mixed league guy? Sure, you can draft him in a mixed league late. You know, there's a chance with all of the Braves young pitchers, you know, whenever Soroke is healthy again, he gets back in the mix. There's probably going to be some exchanging. Over the course of the season, just swapping out guys to help keep them all fresh and help preserve their innings until late in the year. It won't be a true one through five for the Braves. They have just too many talented arms to do that.

One through four is probably set with when everybody's healthy with Fultenevich, Gosman, Tehran, and Sean Newcomb. But that fit spot's probably going to swap out a lot. All right, Clayton Kershaw through a good bullpen session. He's making progress. Actually, does have a chance to be ready for opening day. sail through a simulated game yesterday. His velocity was in the 91-93-mile-per-hour range. And, you know, Chris, this is certainly no time to panic on Chris Sale, but we probably need to watch the velocity because it was down significantly at the end of last year.

Yeah, and it wasn't just like he started throwing softer. It was coinciding with a shoulder injury that he was dealing with in the second half last season. Yeah, the thing is, he was throwing like 97-99 miles an hour for most of last season. So if he's back in the 93-95 mile-per-hour range by the start of the season, I don't think there's any reason to be concerned. 91-92, let's say he's sitting, averaging 92 with his fastball. That makes me a little uneasy, but he's still so good. And the swinging strike rates have been so consistently good throughout his career. He has the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in Major League history.

I think he might have the best K-per-9. So it's hard to be too concerned. I don't think you drop him on your draft board if he's starting 93 miles per hour by opening day. Okay, that's Chris Sale. Well, we don't want to drop him on our draft board, you know, at opening day. Be a little late, Chris Towers. Craig counsel confirmed Mike Mustacas will be Milwaukee's starting second baseman. This is kind of underrated big news the way he said it.

He said it's a foregone conclusion. And I just think, like, we've talked a lot about how we're not sure that Mike Mustacus will actually be able to play second base. every day, but if he is, he's an enormous value in drafts right now. He's a 12th round pick. He's been a top eight and top nine second baseman each of the last two seasons, and that's playing most of his home games in Kansas City.

Musacus could very easily be a top five second baseman this season if he can hold on to playing second baseman. I just really, I worry that it's not going to be tenable. You know, they can say that now, and they can say that in April, but if they're five games back of the division in the middle of May, and he's playing abysmal second base, even if he's hitting well, they've got enough guys who can hit.

Right, we just, we're only looking at that side of it right now. We've not acknowledged the idea. Sure, no, I, just play second base. I agree, and there's 40 Homer upside there too. Easily. There are plenty of people,

I mean, he went in the sixth round of my Tower Wars draft, so there are plenty of people who are not only looking at the other side, but completely caving. to the other side. And I'm still, like, there's a difference that he named him the primary second basement. And like he said, it was a foregone conclusion. Who else were they going to go with? Did they sign him to that money to be a bench player? I don't think so. So yes, we knew he was going to be the primary second baseman. Some of counsel's comments yesterday also were talking about how the range isn't very good. And they're hoping to combat it with careful positioning. Like,

they weren't already positioning their fielders carefully. So I still have my doubts he's going to start more than three quarters of the time there, and there's going to be a lot of late-inning substitutions, I would suspect. I'm just, I'm still, I'm still thinking the bats aren't going to be there for him to live up to the extent of his potential, and that probably the ADP is deserving for Mustakis. Okay, so everybody, tell me when you would consider drafting Mike Mastakis. Current ADP is 137th overall in a 12-team league that's the end of round 12, or the middle of round 12. Chris Heath Scott, when would you draft Mike Mustakis? I wouldn't draft him that early.

I'd probably be more in like the 150 range for me. What is Robinson Cano's ADP? Do you have that pulled up? Of course. That feels like it's been consistently low throughout. 112. Yeah, I'd rather have control. 112.

Okay, so it's higher you. Heath, how about you? So Chris said round 10, 11. Scott said in the 150s, how about you? Yeah, I've got him at 123, so I think 10-11 is perfect. I think I'd put him right there with Cano. Okay. And he's not second-based eligible yet, right?

No, it's going to take at least a week. Marcelo Zuna started in left field for the first time in spring training. That's good news. Miguel Cabrera pulled off the hidden ball trick. That was also good news. The Reds used relief pitcher Michael Lorenzen in center field yesterday. You think that's just, hey, it's spring training, go have fun, or is there a chance that Lorenzen?

gets in the mix. As like a double switch where you want to play matchup? Is he a lefty? No. Okay. So maybe you have him in the game. You bring in a lefty to face a lefty. You come back.

Like that, we've seen this before. Okay. Not that fantasy relevant then for Michael Lorenzen. Kyle Seeger is going to miss at least April with the wrist finger surgery for Kyle Seeger. Ryan Healy is going to play third base in the meantime. And he's got some pop, not a lot of batting average, but. 25 home runs in 2017, 24 home runs and 133 games in 2018. Meanwhile, Seattle sent pitcher Justice Sheffield to AAA.

Scott, does that, you know, it's not that big of a surprise. I know we talked about Sheffield yesterday. I don't get it. What don't you get, Chris? I don't understand. Like, what's the point? Of? He pitched well last season in the minors.

He doesn't really seem to have much left. it's not like this is a rotation overstocked with viable options I don't understand what the Mariners are doing I think Justice Sheffield should be in their opening day rotation I don't get it well they might

if nothing else there's the service time issue they probably want to give Felix Hernandez one last chance to to see if he can I know he's been working on a curve throwing a curveball more and maybe he can salvage the end of his career that way

I'm also not sure They're awful this spring I don't have much hope But I can understand why the Mariners You know he's one of their best players ever Why they wouldn't want to pull the plug on him so quickly Yeah And I don't know

I don't know that it's fully Certain Sheffield is capable of being A starter I don't like I But that doesn't matter I feel like he's going to go the Josh Hater route What do you mean it doesn't matter? It doesn't matter right now

It doesn't matter right now for the Seattle Mariners. Yeah. They should find out whether he can start in the majors. Well, they're not compete.

Like, the Brewers were making a run. That's why they threw Josh Hayter in the bullpen because they needed to help now. You can't root his confidence, Chris Towers. You got to let this guy

go out there and learn. If you don't think he can be a, well, there's the service time element. Right. You have nothing, like, you can wait until June and do that. I'm not saying they won't do it.

Right, but yeah, I don't do it right now. I just don't think there's performance. performance reasons for sending him down when Wade LeBlanc is going to be the fifth starter. All right. Well, that's Justice Sheffield. And I know he was drafted in our 30-man roster Roto League.

I don't anticipate he'll be drafted in a lot of leagues. But there's something there. He was part of the James Paxton trade. Finally, Angels Outfielder Joe Adele is out 10 to 12 weeks minor leaguer with a sprained ankle and a strained hamstring. Okay, here's what's coming up on the rest of the show. Breakouts, breakouts, breakouts, breakouts. So Heath and Scott will give some more. And, of course, you can read their columns on CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball.

At the end of the show, we'll do the breakout ometer. I will give some trendy names. And you would tell me how likely they are to break out. And I will also give some non- trendy names like Gregly Polanco. I think he has a chance to break out this year. And I'm going to throw in Jackie Bradley Jr. So Chris can talk about him. But we've got some stuff.

I just want to tell you about position battles. There's a great story on CBSports.com with the big position battle for every. single team. We're doing A-L-only and NL-only mock drafts for the website today and tomorrow. So on Thursday, we'll talk about those formats. You have to listen to the Ion. You have to. Demanding. You listen to the Ion College Basketball podcast. Obviously, this is a great time to do it. I always make sure I listen to their post-selection show podcast before I fill out my bracket. And the Podcast League. All right, everybody. You want to get into the podcast league? here's how we do. Actually, confession, I don't know how we're going to do it.

I'll notice when it is. It's Monday, March 25th at 8 p.m. Eastern. If you cannot do the draft on Monday, March 25th at 8 p.m. Eastern, please do not submit an entry to the podcast league. If you can draft with us, this is a 12-team points league. We'll select eight of you to join us. Monday, March 25th at 8 p.m. Eastern, you are going to send an email to fantasy baseball at cbsi.com and you are going to put podcast league in the subject line and guys, what are we

going to ask our listeners to do to get into the podcast league? Chris, you're usually very good at things like this. Especially when you put them on the spot. Yeah, I know, I'm so sorry. Okay, so we've done we've done like limericks in the past. I think we didn't do, we did haikus,

not limericks because they sometimes can't be running a podcast. I mean, well, then make them could do that with anything. Make them something you could read on the podcast. Is that what we're doing? Yeah, I think we go with Limerick's. I think we go with song parodies,

preferably in the style of weird Alan Yankovic. Those are my two thoughts right now. I think song parodies in the style of Weird Al Yankovic would be my first thought. What if we just say something creative? That's too, you can't, you got to give a prompt. You know, if you were in school and the teacher said,

hey, write something. You would be justifiably angry because you would have no idea what the expectations were, what a good one versus a bad one is. A song parody, you know. You're trying to let these people think for themselves. Not everybody's wheelhouse is a song pair.

Not everybody gets to go in the podcast league. That's, I think we got to, you got to have rules. You got to have limits. Scott, go ahead. I feel like you have a suggestion here. Oh, I don't have a suggestion. Oh, okay. I just what I thought.

Just criticizing Chris. You sit in your ivory tower and you criticize and you don't have anything better. You know, maybe. I've been working on this team name for Team Name Tuesday because it is Team Name Tuesday. And this seems like the only day of the week that Adam doesn't read team names. No, I'm reading them. There are the show notes. Okay.

What about No Justice, no JPs? Okay. I mean, it could just be the best team names. No justice, no JPs. You are the worst at Team Name Tuesday. You are so bad. I think it's pretty good. I think it's going to be one of my team names this year.

I mean, look, it can't. I can't be the worst one. I can't ever live up to. It can't be the worst. Yasmani Money, Tomas. All right. So, team name Tuesday, Chris, just so you know. Today, team name Tuesday is going to be brought to you by Kikuchi.

Okay. Yeah, that was for Chris Towers. All right, listen, do something creative. A song, a poem, limerick, whatever it is. Send it to Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. put podcast league in the subject line. Let's talk more about breakouts, and let's do it right after this short break. Okay, Heath Cummings, dazzle us with a breakout.

Yeah, I'll go with one more pitcher, and it's somebody that I think Chris and I kind of disagree on, so it'll make it even more fun. I'm going to go with Jack Flaherty, who has been awesome so far this spring, was pretty good last year, and there are some reasons to question whether you can keep that up with the control issues that he's had.

But I don't see looking at his track record a serious reason to think he's always going to have control problems. And if he can miss bats like he did last year and just have average control on a very good Cardinals team in a very good pitchers park, he struck out 230 batters between AAA and the majors last year. I don't know that he can get quite there, but I do believe he could be a 190-inning, 220 strikeout guy with a low 3 ZRA and 15 plus wins. Should Jack Flaherty be going ahead of James and Tione, Jose Berrios? I would rather have him ahead of those two pitchers. I do think they're in a similar range, but I prefer Flaherty because I think he has more upside. I don't know that I can reasonably see a way where James and Tion is striking out 220 hitters,

possibly Burrios, but I do think Flaherty has more upside. Tion and Brrios are both safer. All right, Scott, breakout? I'm going to go with the pitcher as well, and I'm going to go with the pitcher as well, I'm kind of sad I have to do this because I feel like the breakout already happened, and yet it's clear to me that nobody's quite buying into it the way I am. And that's Hermann Marquez, who was a completely different pitcher for about the final. It was even, like, dividing it into halves doesn't even quite do it justice,

because it really started even before the All-Star break, where he took an ace turn. And when I say ace, I'm talking about tip-top high-end, of the pitcher ranks. He was up there with guys like Jacob de Grom and Aaron Nola from that point forward in terms of fantasy scoring.

He made an adjustment last year. Basically, he had been telegraphing his breaking balls his whole career, slowing down his arms so that it was apparent he was throwing a breaking ball, figured out how to move the arm through

at the same speed that he does with his fastball, which is really good fastball. and everything just took off. His strikeout rate was approaching 12 per 9 during that stretch. His ERA was in the low to mid-2s. And he was pitching deep into game, seven innings consistently for Hermann Marquez. I think he's awesome. I think he's an ace.

I think the fact that you can get him in round eight, of a lot of leagues, I think is a huge win for you. Because anytime you can find a pitcher who's demonstrated ace ability for any stretch of his career, it's a rare find beyond, beyond, like, that early group of pitchers. There's just not a lot of pitchers who emerges that in season anymore. I think people look at the full season stats, see an ERA close to four, and are like, okay,

there's still the Colorado issue going on here. But it really wasn't. Once he figured it out, the home and away splits were, both awesome. And it was not one of those situations where full season stats are more indicative than half-season stats because there was a clear transformation that happened here midway. And he's still a full season. I mean, he's 377 ERA, but 230 strikeouts and 196 innings. Those last 13 starts, 225 ERA, and nine of his last 13 starts seven or more innings for Armand Marquez. But, you know, Scott has Marquez 17th. He has him three spots ahead

of Jack Flaherty. Heath, you have Marquez 25th. You have him behind Barrios-Tay-O and Severino, Chris Archer. So is it the Corse-Field thing for you? It's mostly the course field thing. It's also that his stretch of dominance wasn't very long compared to his complete track record. I just don't know that it's fair to expect him to be that dominant going into this year. Okay. I'll get Chris's take on some of these breakouts in a second.

Let's do one more round, and then I'll bring Chris in. Scott, give me one more breakout. Heath, give me one more breakout, and then Chris Towers gets to do his thing. So my breakout's list is littered with Colorado Rockies, which probably means we're going to pick them to win the division this year. But David Dahl is another one of my favorite outfielders to draft. Not really any concerns about playing time anymore. The job is his. And if you just translate out last year's numbers, he had 16 home runs and what amounts to half a season at bat.

So potential 30 homer guy right there. But then you consider four course fields, which has a way of giving the typical batter a 350 Babbitt because the outfields are so big because they have to push the wall so far back. It ends up being a place where balls drop in with much greater frequency than any other park. Dahl for the environment had bad Babbitt luck last year. So I think you can expect another 20 points on the batting average as well. And you add it all up and you're looking at kind of like another Charlie Blackman there in their outfields. This is a guy with a great pedigree. We've been waiting a long time for him to breakout.

There have been injuries that have slowed him down. But I think now is finally the time for David Dull to be everything we've long hoped he could be. And I'll just say in Scott's breakouts column, there are three outfielers that are going in the same range. There's Pueig, there's Dahl, and Conforto. And I'd love to have one, if not two of them on all of my teams. Pueg, Dahl, and Conforto. Personally, I put Pueg last. But how would the three of you guys, Scott, I'll start with you,

how would you rank Pueg, Dahl, and Michael Conforto? I think I would go Pueg one because there's a greater speed element there than the other two, followed by Dahl and followed by Conforto. Chris, how about you? I think that's an appropriate ranking. I think they're all very similar. Quig probably has the highest floor

just because we've seen him be a power speed threat the last couple of years. Dahl, if he just plays, he should be pretty good. Ian Desmond was good last year and he's not very good. I think David Dahl's a better hitter with the potential for, you know, similar power and speed.

Yeah, I've got all three of these guys within eight spots in my overall top 300, so they're very, very close. I would actually go Dahl, then Pueig, then Conforto. I do think Dahl has the most upside just because of course field. And again, he could steal just as many bases as Pugge this year. All right, Heath, give me a breakout. So Scott's giving us two Rockies, Arm Márquez, and David Dahl. You gave us Jack Flaherty. I think you should probably give us another Cardinal then.

Well, it didn't work out to get Chris riled up saying Jack Flaherty. Well, I didn't have the opportunity to respond. I'm going to do something else that he doesn't like and say a player that hasn't even played yet. I'm going to say Eloy Jimenez is my breakout. And I really think after this injury to Vlad Guerrero, we should consider that Elo Jimenez should be the first rookie taken in drafts. He was absolutely awesome. In fact, better than Vlad at AAA, better than Vlad at High A.

I'm not saying he's necessarily going to be better than Vlad for his entire career. I think he might be better than Vlad this season. 355 batting average in AAA, an OPS over 900 in both high A and AAA. He's got more power than Vlad does. Maybe not quite the same average, but I still think he's got a chance to hit over 300. Very good park for him. Shouldn't be a bad lineup as long as he's in the middle of it, right behind a Brayu. I expect huge things from Eloy as soon as the white sucks call him up.

Okay, Chris. The word breakout means nothing. We've just accepted that it's just player I like. And you like you only minute. I love. Yeah. You know what? I think the difference between a sleeper and a breakout is not every, there are exceptions.

We're going to do this again. I think that we expect breakouts to finish among, you know, close to the elites as, let's say, top 50 players. And we don't expect the same from sleepers. They're more like top 100 players. I would say that as far as players that I reasonably believe could have a second round or higher ADP next year, there is no player with a lower ADP right now than Elohimenez. It is really low. I don't get it.

Elohimenez, 124th. Vlad Guerrero sucked all the oxygen out of the room, and it's weird because we had two great fantasy rookies last year. Yes, Vlad Guerrero's production was historic, but Elohiman's production has been

really, really good, especially the last couple years. He cut his strikeout rate, and the raw power is huge. So I get why Vlad Guerrero has been ranked higher, but at this point we probably see Eloy a little earlier. I think Vlad's a better player, but the gap is wide.

So here's the only problem, Heath, with Eloy Jimenez and saying that he's going too late. The outfielers that are going in front of him are basically Pueig, Dahl, Conforto, and then some others, Aaron Hicks, Victor Robles, like Speed Guys, Victor Robles, and Alex Smith. Like, why in the world would Victor Robles

be going ahead of Eloy Minnis? Speed, steals. Stolen bases are scarce. Eloy's not going to steal any bases. Would you take... He's a really big prospect, too. Well, you could draft Billy Hamilton. Would you take Eloy over Puee Conforto and Daw?

I would take Eloy over every name that you have said. We'd take him over Trout. Trout. Trout or Eloy? This year I'll take Trout. We'll see next year. I do think Robles has more fantasy. upside than Ilo Jimenez.

Because Ilo Jimenez, in the best case scenario, is a four category contributor. If he steals two bases, that'll be a pretty successful season for him. Robles has the potential to be a power hitter. He's got the potential to be a true five category guy like Trey Turner. I think that is a realistic upside for him.

And that just, that edges out, a guy who could be a really good hitter. I mean, I like, we're talking about, he's at 10 home runs. at the most at any point in his like yeah there's a possibility it's not a reasonable upside.

He's never played more than 85 games in a season. And how many did he hit? That's, I mean, I'm willing to bet. That's not a contributor when you have 15 home money.

Let's get Scott in there. Let's get Scott in there. Go ahead. I'm willing to bet race will have will eventually emerge as a Robles? I mean,

Robles. I'm sorry. Robles will eventually emerge as a 20 homer guy. But I have, like if they were If you give both of them the same timetable this year, I think Jimenez is closer to being an impact player in the majors.

But then there's the element of, okay, we don't know exactly when he's coming up. Robles opening day roster in all likelihood. And yeah, the speed scarcity, which makes a difference in categories league. Points leagues, I don't think there is much justification to take Robles ahead of Amenas. Yeah. And I would say, like, the best, if we want to put like a best case scenario on both of them, is it like Trey Turner versus Freddie Freeman? Like if I-Ilo Jimenez is a consistent 300 hitter with 25 to 30 homers and...

I think that would be... Yeah, I think I may have more raw homer potential than Freeman. Sure, but yeah, what's the... I don't know what the comp is in that range. Because he's not going to be Paul Goldschmidt. He's not going to steal bases. No. But either way, like, Trey Turner's been a little bit disappointing for fantasy.

And he's still clearly more valuable. than Freddie Freeman. He's valuable in theory, but he actually really hasn't been, other than his rookie year, I'd say, more valuable than Freddie Freeman. I guess you could debate it. Like last year, he certainly wasn't. But, you know... Well, we're drafting 15 to 20 spots higher. I have them back to back.

Sure. Because we keep hoping for more than he's... We hope for it. Right, right. Exactly. The leopard. Yeah. All right, let's get back to some more breakouts here. That is just such a great range of outfielders. Like, you have to live in that range. You have to get involved there. Because Michael Brantley is also in there. Even Will Myers isn't so bad, but, you know, again, Conforto, Puee, Dahl, Brantley.

Who? Pollock. Pollock. Yes, yes. Aaron Hicks and Points Leagues. Oh, my guy. I love Aaron Hicks and Points Leagues. I think he's a legit breakout, particularly in that format.

Scott, give me another breakout. We'll get two more from each of you, and then we'll read some emails, and then we'll do the breakout on Meeter and Team Name Tuesday and all that good stuff. But let's try to pick up a little bit here on the pace. Scott, go ahead with a breakout. Two more. I came here with four. That's fine. I got a whole column full of them.

Jordan Hicks. I mentioned yesterday when we were talking about sleepers that Matt Barnes' emergence for the Red Sox has provided me with a late round closer that I didn't think I'd be able to find just a month ago. Well, Jordan Hicks is the other one because I think he is in for a huge breakthrough as the Cardinals closer, not just with the role there, but also in terms of how effective he is. The numbers last year, kind of lackluster, but he did overtake a roll of this Chapman as the hardest thrower in baseball, averaging about 102, averaging 102 on his four-seem fastball. And they're raving about the slider this spring. He has been striking out everybody in sight. He had a stretch there where he struck out like of his six recorded outs, seven were strikeouts. You know, there was a wild pitch, so he got an extra one in there.

He's really been lighting it up. And though they've said they'll play matchups in the late innings to some degree. Andrew Miller there being the left-hander. It sounds to me like a similar situation to Cody Allen and Andrew Miller in Cleveland where Alan was still basically the closer. I think that's how it'll go. I see Jordan Hicks getting 30 plus saves this year and potentially striking out 100 batters. Heath Cummings, give me a breakout. I'm going to go way high end for this one.

Just to tell you about a guy who we thought was going to be a first round pick and probably will be next year, I think it's Carlos Correa. All he has to do is stay healthy and do what he was doing in 2017. You remember kind of what he was doing at the beginning of the year before he got hurt last year. And I still think that he has the potential to be in points league's the number one shortstop overall. He's following to the fourth, maybe even fifth round in some drafts. He seems like he's healthy right now. He's in a great lineup. Could give you 220 runs plus RBI and give you some power and maybe even a little bit of speed as well.

Carlos Correa in 2017, he played only 109 games, but his 155 game pace was 315 with 34 home runs, 119 RBIs, 117 runs, and three steals. He would have been the number one shortstop in points leagues in that year if he had played. He'd been close to the number one player with those numbers. 583, 533 fantasy points, yeah, he probably would have been a top five player hitter anyway. So Correa, yes, please just stay healthy. What's better value, do you think Carlos Correa in the fourth round? Or let's, let me look up Corey Seeger.

Corey Seeger in like the sixth or seventh round, I believe. Yeah, beginning of the same. I would still rather have Correa. I think it, it, Correa definitely has, I don't think Corey Seeger is going to be a first round pick next year. Carlos Correa could be. But I do think Seeger has fallen a bit too far, given that they both have injury concerns. I think Correa is better, but he may not run that much anymore.

And so if the ceiling is 8 to 10 stolen bases, that makes it a little closer, because I think Corey Seeger could be a true 300 hitter moving forward. All right, Heath, one more breakout, please. Yeah. I'll go with one more high-end guy. Let's, and I'm going to put him in my column just because somebody needs to. How about Trey Turner just actually lives up to what we've been expecting from for the last couple of years?

They've talked about him running 75 to 80 times within the season. This could be a 60-steal season for a guy that I still believe has the potential to hit close to 300 and score a ton of runs at the top of the lineup. Oh, I'm so tempted to take him fourth overall in my Roto League. I think I'm going to go with Aeronado, but I'm so tempted to take Trey Turner. But boy, what a bad taste he left in people's mouths last year. Scott, your final breakout. When he led the Vagers and steals.

Yeah, but he was a bus. Ironically, but he was a minor bus. I'll throw another Rockies at you. A Rocky at you. What? And another Rockies pitcher at that. And what I was saying about Hermann Marquez about finding that combination of potentially elite ratios will also

giving you a huge workload is so rare beyond the elite class. Well, John Gray, I think, fits that description as well. Had some weird stuff going on with his arsenal. Apparently lost conviction with his basketball and it impacted his slider, which was his best pitch, and he spent some time in the minors, and he had issues with runners on base, and just a lot of little things added up to an ERA over five. But that was with a 408 FIP.

His strikeout rate was still one of the best among qualifying pitchers. Swinging strike, great, still one of the best. The stuff is still great. He has looked a lot better this spring. The slider looks like it's back to its old form. And even as bad as he was last year with that ERA over five, you know, he ended up making, he ended up making 31 starts. More than half of them, he went six plus innings. And that was with all the early hooks in those starts where he just got throttled.

So definitely somebody who shows the ability to take on a big. workload. I like to hit as many pitchers as I can with that skill set throughout the course of the draft because I think those are the ones with the best chance of having emerging as ace-like pitchers. I think Gray's a really good example of

what can go wrong with Armand Marquez as well. You can't ignore the course effect. It doesn't matter how talented the pitchers are. And John Gray is extremely talented. I think in a different context, he could be a 15 pitcher, but the best he's ever done with his ERA compared to his FIP was his ERA being half run higher than his FIP.

Mostly it's been a full run higher. And so the skill set is great, but there is just no margin for error when you pitch a course field. If you're off just a little bit, you're going to be hammered. And that's the thing that you can't just ignore with these pitchers is, yes, the Rockies have talented pitchers, but there is a really slim, The same reason we like David Dahl and the same reason we like Garrett Hampson and all these young guys in Colorado is the same reason why there's a lot of risk

with the Rockies pitch. I do still like Gray where he's being taken because I think he's good enough that you could almost draft him at that spot and just start him on the road and make a profit. You're not wrong about Coors Field and that's something I've argued for years anytime somebody expressed enthusiasm about a Rocky's pitcher. But John Gray, you know, the home away splits have been consistently. Even, he's actually, you know, most of the time he's actually been a little better at home. So I don't think that was his issue last year.

And I think it's a different talent level for Gray and Marquez than we've seen for any's Rockies pitchers, except for maybe Ubaldo Jimenez. But even then, you know, I still think these guys are better than him even. I mean, Ubaldo almost won a son young, right? I know. It was really good. I think these guys could too. Okay, so just give me one word answer.

John Gray or Nick Povetta. Paveira. John Gray. Povetta. I like both. John Gray or you say Kikuchi. Kukuchi. Gray.

Kikuchi. Gray. John Gray or Colin McHugh. Gray. McHugh and points. Okay. MQ and points. All right.

So recap then. Scott gave you Jesse Winker, Armand Marquez, David Dahl, Jordan Hicks, and John Gray. Heath gave you Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty, Eloy Jimenez, Carlos Correa, and Trey Turner. We got emails to read. We got the breakout ometer, fantasy baseball at cbsi.com is the email address. It is team name Tuesday. Let's see how we like them.

Ready? Here we go. Eloy Jetson. No. Yeah. No. He doesn't like anything. A stretch.

I've never actually owned these two players at the same time, but if I ever do, Noel Aaron, Aronolado. No. If it's hard to say, just kick it to the car. Terrible. Terrible. Like, you've got all day long to pick out emails. We get thousands of them.

You couldn't pick out better team names than this? This is what we got. I like it. I like it. There's a basketball one that I've had, which was Lamarca Saldridge. That's not bad. I'm on board with that one. This one is supposed to be accompanied by an image of John Candy.

Polka, polka, polka. That's a home alone. Poca, poca, poca, poca. No? Yeah, it's a deep cut. Marky, Marquez. A terrible player and a worst name. Marky Marquez and the Buncey Bunch.

Yeah. This one we get a lot. Max, Muncie. That funky Muncie. Yep. It's very good, but it's... We have gotten that a lot. Apparently, Heath and Chris will know this one, what it means.

Chill fam. Yeah, I mean, it's just, it's a thing that the kids say, and we are the resident kids on the podcast. So, I'm the oldest guy here, but... I guess I'm still technically younger. You've got kids who own you. And I'm actually younger than Scott and Adam. No, you're not. In most ways.

That is true. Stripling. We're old souls, Adam. Stripling is no way to make a living. I like that one. Okay, it's not really a team name. It's a sentence. And you say goodbye and I say gallo.

That's good. Very good. Solid. Excellent. I have trouble. I don't usually like Nixon. the two player names, but that one, that one works pretty well. Not really a team name, more like a sentence.

More like a song. It's concise enough. I have trouble singing on video, by the way. It's scary for me. Okay, time for emails. Someone named Morgan sent us four emails in a row that were all good. So I'm going to read them, and we're going to give quick answers on all four of these emails.

Here we go. Freddie Peralta, any love for this guy? He was pretty interesting last year. So is... Not a rotation spot, right? Yeah, so is... Brandon Woodruff, so is Corbyn Burns. All very interesting.

I would love to see them all in and somebody like Zach Davies out. But that doesn't seem to be the plan at the start. Okay. Don't draft Freddie Peralta? I mean, it'd have to be a deep league where you're stashing a lot of future assets who you aren't expecting to contribute right away. Freddie Peralta is the Derek Zoolander of pitchers. He throws one pitch.

He has one pitch. throws the fastball, like 75% of the time. Should Brian Anderson be rostered in 15-team mixed leagues? 15-team, probably. Yep. Okay. Is Yonder Alonzo underrated? I can see 100 RBIs in a best-case scenario.

No way. In a best-case scenario, yeah. But he's bad enough against lefties that it's pretty slim chances. Yeah, I mean, he's probably, I don't know how he's, I've never seen him drafted, so I don't know where he's being drafted. And that tells me he's probably being underrated a little bit, but he was pretty bad last year. Yonder Alonzo, 326th overall. He's been bad basically every year but one.

But he's never been in a hitter's park except for a little bit of time in Cincinnati. And now Alonzo on the white side. Cleveland's a hitter's park. Yeah. Is it? Not like Chicago, but yeah. Well, this is, okay, fine. This is the best park that he's been in, not including Cincinnati.

Okay, and is that it? Oh, Jay Bruce. I haven't heard his name on the podcast yet. There has to be another 30 homer season in his bat at some point. Jay Bruce. Jay Bruce is finally starting to get to the age where I felt he's been for the last five years. He's still not there. He still isn't 32 yet, which blows my mind.

I cannot believe that. He's a young man. Are you and Jay Bruce the same age? He's a year older than me. I would have bet Jay Bruce was 32 in like 2009. Exactly. What people forget about Jay Bruce, because he was consistently, I think an underrated source of like 30 homers 90 plus RBI.

He was, his season was wrecked last year by planter fichitis. So I don't, I'm not just willing, I'm not assuming it was decline, age-related decline, especially since he's, yeah, still not that old. I think there's, I think there's deep sleeper appeal here. It did not sound like before the Kyle Seeger injury, it did not sound like Jay Bruce was geared. guaranteed every day at bats. I'm still not sure he's going to play against lefties. Okay, well, that would be a problem. But yeah, maybe there's still something left in that bat for Jay Bruce,

who feels like he's older than Heath. But, you know, nobody's older than Heath. This is an email from... He's not older than any of them. Oh, Chris. He's older than Chris. Jonathan Harris in New Orleans. I have the opportunity to pick my draft spot.

My options are three through 10. What should I do? Three, don't overthink it. Three. When I had the opportunity to pick, I chose three. We get this question a lot But it depends if you like Jose Ramirez If you don't like Jose Ramirez, then don't

I think Jose Ramirez in a points league Is so super safe That you should go through You should take three in a points league In a Roto league I think he's safe in either for him Well he's, yes he is but I don't

I think I'm fine with it But in a points league for sure Because yeah no Right There are some people who don't like Jose Ramirez He was Pretty bad the last six weeks of last season

and they worry about that. I'm not one of them, but, you know, I don't want to tell him to pick third, and then he does something like take, you know, Nolan Aronado or whatever. Okay, this is from Brian. Christian Yelich looks like he had a great second half, but prior to that, his points per week were not all that hot. Everyone expects Yelich's numbers to regress. Aaron Judge, meanwhile, as it's pointed out,

was having a continuation for the most part of his 2017 season before his injury. To me, Yelich over Judge in nearly all rankings is recency bias, and Judge is the better play. Do you agree? Oh. I do. Yeah, I probably should. I keep calling him a regression candidate and then not moving him down far enough in my rankings. He was on pace for a really good season before that second half.

It was something like 20 homers, 20 steals, 2.92 average. But if he had done that for the whole season, we wouldn't be ranking him as a first round player. It's all about those last 70 or so games where we're moving him up from a second or third round guy into the elite tier of hitters. And I think that's an overreaction. It's 70 games. Yes, it was a better park. Yes, we were expecting him to improve. It's still 70 games that we're basing this whole thing on.

Yeah, I'm still ranking yellowish ahead. You know my philosophy in the early rounds just don't mess it up. and even though I'm much more confident in Judge than I was a year ago, I still think he has a very, very small margin for error with that strikeout rate. And if either of these is just going to go belly up, it's going to be Judge. Yeah, I like Judge better in an OBP League. I mean, Yowich will have a great OBP, but so will judge, whereas Yowich has an obvious advantage over him in batting average.

where it's probably going to be pretty similar. I might give the edge to Judge and OBP, but it would be pretty similar. Yeah, standard 5 by 5. I mean, you got Yellich contributing in all five categories and judge potentially hurting you. Well, definitely, well, potentially hurting you into. He hasn't hurt you in batting average yet. Yeah, but he's not going to stand out like a lot of the guys going in that rate. What, 270 hitter?

And I do think, like, Yelich, not all home run totals are a help in home runs. I do think Yelich is probably more of just an average slot in home runs. I don't expect him to be a positive contributor. So what's your over under for Yelich home runs? 29 and a half? Oh, no. I'd hit the under on that. No, 25 is that the most, probably 24.

I think 24.5 is a good place to set it. And I think most people would take the over. I would definitely take the over. I'm sending it to 29 and a half. Too high. All right, we got to get to the breakout ometer, so I just want to read one more email. It's from Blake and Santa Barbara.

You devoted a whole segment to Tyler Skaggs last week and did not play the drop of my three-year-old singing it like you. Am I experiencing my first illusions as a parent thinking something my kid does is way cooler than it actually is? Anyway, I've attached the file again. Emiko won't be offended if you write back and say it's lame. She can't read yet. Well, it's not lame, Blake. Here is Blake's daughter with an I'm going to Tyler Skaggs.

Enjoy. I'm going to Tyler Skaggs. I love it. That's phenomenal. Much better than you. That has to be the drop for sure every time. I'm going to tie this day. Much better than mine.

All right, breakout, O'Beer. We'll finish the show. I'm going to give a couple of high-end first baseman slash outfielders. Hoskins will get that first base eligibility quickly. Cody Bellinger, Reese Hoskins. The odds that they break into the first round in 2020, what do you think for them? a higher for Bellinger but not particularly high

I don't Are we supposed to be giving a number or a percentage? I mean you should give a number but I think I have to phrase some of the questions differently On a scale of what? Don't worry about the meter for Bellinger and Hoskins What do you think their first round potential is? I think it's really hard for Reitz-Hawksons get there

I love his profile, but I think he's probably never going to be a huge help in batting average, and he's not going to steal bases. Once you get to that point, like, better Jose Abraeu maybe is the upside, and I don't think that's a first-round player. I think I'd put Bellinger at a three in Hoskins at like a 1.75. Okay. Two pitchers. James and Tyone, Luis Castillo. do you like their chances to really break out and become, I don't think they're going to be like, you know, first, second, third round picks,

but get into the fourth, fifth round, that kind of right after the ace. I know it's not that big of a jump. But no, you know what, forget it. Tyone and Castillo, do they have ace potential? I like Tyone's chances better. I think Tyone would be more of a Granky-like ace when Luis Castillo could be a Severino type ace, but obviously Tyone's safer. Kind of

a similar situation to Bellinger and Hoskins. Yeah, I don't, I think we saw the James and Tyone breakout. I don't know what I see beyond what he did last year unless he has a really good year in terms of wins or something. So I'm going to

say one on Tion, Castillo is a lot cheaper and it would be a lot bigger of a jump for him, but I'll give him a two. The breakout jump for Tyone would be he figures it out on April, or March 29th, rather than May 30th. Well, it was pointed out to me on Twitter that

Tione, someone said, look at his numbers after he added a slider. And that was 22 starts, 271 ERA, and 131 strikeouts, and 139 and 2 thirds. 12 and 6. Was that someone at CT? No. C. What is your Towers? C-Towers. What are you going to change your...

You've been on... Yankee Hotel Foxchrot Nixon for too long. It's only been a few months. I kept boys and girlies in America for nearly the entire football season. Well, that's laziness. I don't know what to say. I hate when he changes his thing because I'm like, who is this guy populating my Twitter timeline? Where did he come from?

Oh, it's Chris. Yeah, just assume if it's something you've never heard of. It's probably me making an indie band name reference. All right, breakout potential for Ozzy Albies, getting to that next level, becoming a true stud. Ozzie Albiz. Yeah, I'm not betting on it this year, but it's... I think he has second round upside. He has to not sell out for power like he did last year, and he has to run more.

Yeah, I think it comes from not hitting for as much power, but hitting for a better average, improving his plate discipline and stealing 25 to 30 bases. All right, now we really have to finish the show. we're up against Off the Bench is going to be recording a podcast soon in the studio

and make sure you listen to the Off the Bench podcast with Cannell and Bell it is awesome, great show so I'm going to give a name you guys tell me zero to ten how likely are they to truly break out this year

Mitch Hanager Two Four Zero Zero, come on He already broke out What is he supposed to do That's kind of how I feel

Eddie Rosario Eddie Rosario Zero. Zero, yeah. I'll give him a one. Matt Chapman, 962 OPS after the All-Star break. Matt Chapman.

If it wasn't for the injuries, I'd say five. I'll go four. He's already playing, right? Yeah, but he's still coming, but it's possible because it was a thumb and a shoulder, right? I'm going to say six. Wow. Max Muncie.

Seven. Max Muncie. This is an interesting list of guys that broke out last year. Well, no. I mean, guys who will take the next next that's a thing. In terms of fantasy utility,

I mean, he has to play more than he did in the second half last year. He's not against virtually every lefty. Zero to ten, Max Muncie. So I'm going to give him seven. I'm going to give him a seven. Raphael Devers. Five. It's like six but with a wide error bar.

I find myself drafting him a lot because I think you want to be there when he figures it out. It's a lot like no marmos. Devers, okay. I'll go five. Gregby Polanco. Two. Eight in the second half.

I just think you can get up to a really slow start. Okay, two, eight and five. That makes sense. Jackie Bradley Jr. Six. Three. Randall Gritchick. Three.

Four. I will go five. Tyler Glass now. Seven. Nine. Eight. There you go. Beautiful.

What a way to end it. Tyler Glass now. He actually isn't Scott's breakouts column. Right? Yes, yes, he is. Thank you, Scott White. Heath Company's Chris Towers. Tomorrow we'll talk about busts Thursday, AL-only, NL-L-only. I'm trying to line up a draft for Friday show. So stay tuned. Remember to email us, put podcast league in the subject line. Fantasy Baseball and CBSI.com.

We're out. We'll talk to you tomorrow.