Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/12 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: #3 Pick, SP Signings, Spring Risers

Episode Date: March 12, 2018

What's the most important and underrated thing you may have missed over the weekend? Scott (2:24) and Heath (5:03) each give an interesting Fantasy note. Then we discuss who to take with the #3 pick in a roto or categories league (8:40) ... Thoughts on Jake Arrieta (13:10), Lance Lynn (18:40), Jonathan Lucroy (25:23) and more ... Find out how to join the Podcast League (36:50)! And find out which Spring Training standouts (41:45) are moving up draft boards and who we are concerned about (55:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I care about statistical scarcity more than positional scarcity. Have I killed fun? Yes. Podcast is going off the rails already. They're pop-ups. They're not infield fly balls. These guys told you look at Bip, not E-R-A. So wait for Glover's sale,

but pass on Robbie Remedore. And pick your milk for breakfast cereal, Mount Rushmore. They'll be there for you. All right, everybody. Welcome to another week. of fantasy baseball today it is monday march 12th adam azer scott white and heath cummings no chris towers on today's show quick question before we get started how long do i get to complain about

daylight savings time and losing an hour so i feel like i'm going to milk it for a solid week i think i think it's totally overblown maybe it's just because i don't keep a very consistent bedtime but like i hardly even notice when it happens yeah i definitely noticed this morning see i was under of the impression that we were supposed to start drinking earlier yesterday because of daylight savings time. Apparently that's not a thing. No. But yeah, I definitely, I screwed that one up.

And apparently, this may be the last time we ever changed the clocks in Florida. No kidding. Yeah, I don't know. I don't think that's actually a good thing, but they're talking about permanent daylight savings. It's on the governor's desk, which I believe means that Monday night football is going to start at like 930 now. I think it would be a good thing if everybody did it. But, yeah, I don't like having to run that.

calculation with the rest of the country being an hour behind in the winter months. Yes, I believe in the winter. Florida will be its own time zone now. Okay, that's very weird. If it's a firm. It kind of makes sense. That's very strange. Well, anyway, I live in New York, so I don't care about that.

So we're going to catch you up on everything you may have missed over the weekend. Jake Areeta is on the Phillies. Lance Lynn is on the Twins. There are some injury news to tell you about, injury news items to tell you about. And we're going to tell you about the podcast league. So stay tuned for that. Oh, and another way to get. get involved. We have a bracket challenge that you should participate in.

All right. So here is a new segment, cleverly named. Sometimes the names of the segments just roll off the tongue, and this is one of them. Here we go. The most important thing people need to know from over the weekend that they might have missed, but we are on top of because we cover fantasy baseball. What do you think it is, Scott White? I have a nomination. Do you have something in mind you're saying? No, I don't. I'm asking you. What do you think people have made as we tell people. Okay. Delano DeShields has been named the Rangers leadoff hitter and center fielder, which I think we were all expecting, but also a little hesitant to embrace after the way this played out last spring.

But even going beyond that, manager Jeff Bannister said he thinks he has the potential for 50 stolen bases. He thinks that's a realistic goal. His exact quote is, I think that's a legitimate goal just based on his previous on-based performances and his speed. We feel he's that type of player. So we were already targeting DeShields as like a late round steel source, but that was in the hope he'd give us the 29 steals he gave us last year. If it's 50 or even if Bannister's being too optimistic and it's more like 40, that could be in today's environment a pretty darn valuable player.

How much better is the Lionel to Shields than Cameron Maven, who's going to start for the Marlins? Well, I think Maidon's playing time is less assured, and I think his stolen base prowess is less confirmed. Because, I mean, he stole a lot last year, but that hasn't been a consistent thing throughout his career, and there's certainly no stated goal from his manager of 50 stolen bases. And he's not as good of a hitter. So I'm moving to Shields up my rankings. I'm keeping Maven a late-rounder.

So is there any reason to draft the Shields? If you don't need steals. How good could he be? I mean, is he only draftable because of the steals, or do you think Delano's just could actually be a good hitter at help in other areas? If he actually stays at the top of the lineup all year long and he delivers on his potential as a hitter, I think there's a pretty good chance that he's actually valuable in all formats,

maybe even as a third outfielder, I don't think that is the most likely situation. But it's certainly possible. Yeah, I was pretty excited about him last year. And they never, like, they never gave him enough of a chance, I think. But he also didn't do all that well. I mean, this is a guy, his slugging percentage in three seasons is 374, 313, and 367. So, yeah, but give him some regular bats.

Let's see what we can do, Delano to Shields, get some runs, get some steals. Good stuff, Delano to Shields. How about you, Heath, the most important thing people need to know from over the weekend that they might have missed, but we are on top of because we cover fantasy baseball. Noted good guy was suspended for PEDs, Jorge Bonifacio, 80 games, and he wasn't particularly exciting for fantasy, but he was good enough last year that I had no reason to think that he wasn't going to be the starting right fielder going into this year,

and there was a real crunch with the Royals. We've seen them sign Duda, sign John Jay, bring back Mustakis, and all that really did, in my opinion, was really limit the chances for sleepers like Jorge Solair and Hunter Dozier. And now it looks like, I can't imagine we're not going to see Solair in right field on a pretty regular basis. He already has four home runs this spring, looking very much like a three true outcomes guy. I think 20 of his 37 plate appearances have ended in a walk, a home run, or a strikeout. He's not going to do a lot for you in points leagues, but in Roto, he could be a very nice source of power.

And I wouldn't be surprised if he's a middle-l lineup hitter. So it's Soler really his better value for you. And the shields for Scott, well, not specifically. Just who you named. I know the Shields is big for both of you. But in a vacuum, who do you think is a better player, De Shields or Solair? Or is a completely 100% category dependent? It's DeShields.

Right now. Right now. Yeah. Yep. That's how I'd put it to. You know, I feel like every year the Royals have big spring training numbers. Am I crazy? Do they play a great part?

The professional ball players that come ready to go at them. Do they play in surprise? They do. Yeah, so it's always like when the season starts. Surprise, they're not that good. Yeah, maybe I'm wrong, though, because I'm looking at that. Well, it's not exactly always like that. I mean, they've actually been good.

I remember getting faked out in my early years as a fantasy analyst by, like, Mark T.hen, having a big spring. That's the one that comes to mind. But I feel like that's happened with a few royals. It didn't really happen last year, I'll say that. I remember Lorenzo Kane was one that kind of, I remember being. like amazing in spring training before he was very good. But of course I could be making all this up.

So anyway, thank you for the most important things that people may have missed. Here's an important Twitter poll you may have missed. I decided let's just put it to the test. Let's figure it out. Do you drink the leftover milk after finishing your cereal? Did you guys vote in this? Nope.

I can tell you I didn't do it this morning, though. Nearly 1,200 votes. 80% said yes, love that milk. And 20% said no. Not surprising at all. That's weird. Yeah, it was a little disappointed. Where are your manners.

It's obviously not weird. It's socially acceptable. 80% of people are doing it. You are weird. No. You should never tip a bowl up to your lips. That's gross. Completely and totally wrong.

What about the soup? Can you drink the broth in soup? No. Absolutely. Sure. What? That's pretty. Maybe in the privacy of your own home.

But out in a restaurant? Yeah. I'm not saying I'm doing it at a restaurant. No. But I don't really. I cannot remember. ever going to a restaurant and ordering soup. What about like?

What? Oh, soup's great. When the chips are almost gone, do you like tip the bag up to your mouth and pour the little crumblies in? Soup is what you eat on a Sunday when it's kind of chilly outside or when you don't be like fixing a lot of meals so you just make enough for the whole week to have left over. Or if you hate salad. You don't go pay $20 for a soup somewhere. No, but if you get the choice of a soup or a salad, like I don't like salad, so I go soup, you know. All right, Scott, did we ever fully discuss you moving Trey Turner up to third overall in Roto? No, we were still in like the position preview mock draft vortex.

Yeah. We didn't hash it out completely. It was a big move for you, right? Yeah, yeah, it was a resignation of sorts. I mean, how far up the rankings from like what, 10th or so to third in Roto? Yeah, in Roto. I didn't move them in head to head, but. Points, you mean.

Right. And points. Yeah. So, I mean, it was basically just coming to grips with the idea. It was mostly preparing for auctions that kind of revealed it to me. Just like I valued him more than my rankings were saying I valued him. It just like I'd start planning an auction strategy around Trey Turner. And it's like if I feel like he's that pivotal for my roto teams, I should probably rank him where everybody else

ranks them. And if we're going full disclosure, I mean, it's, it's always a little tough because you're putting your rankings together in like November or what it is. We're obviously, completely blindfolded to what everybody else is thinking. And it's a big project that takes weeks to do. And so it's, it's, when you see something like that where, like, it's going to, it's going to take a lot of work to correct, basically. It's easy to want to stand by your original thinking. I don't want to say just out of sheer laziness, but there is probably some of that aspect to it.

Just, okay, if I thought this on my own, then I shouldn't let everybody else's input change my mind, and plus it's going to take a lot of work to fix anyway. But, you know, eventually it just became too hard to defend, and so I moved it. All right, so Trey Turner is third in Roto for Scott. second in Roto for Heath, and in ADP, he's fourth in Roto. It's Trout, Altuve, Aronado, and Trey Turner.

And, you know, it might be hypothetical right now, but for me, it's actually, it's legit. I know I have the third pick in Roto or head-to-head Categories League. I don't remember the format. And it's actually 14 teams. I know I have the third pick, and I don't know who I'm going to take. I still think I want to take Aronado. I think he's like he's going to be better.

I would think in definitely three. I would guess I would probably give runs to Turner. Yeah, I think it's really true. I think it's a close-go on batting average, too. Yeah? You think so? Mm-hmm. I wouldn't all be surprised to see Trey Turner

have a higher average than Aeronado this year. I mean, El Naronado's hit 300 once, right? I think so. Was that last year? Last year. It was his highest batting average by 15. points, his highest bad bit by 23 points. So he's

probably, I mean, he's awesome, but he's probably going to be closer to $2.95. Okay. All right, well, that's fair. All right, it's a tough call. Maybe I do go, let me ask you this. Is there any chance? Because I think Aronado is so safe. Right. Yeah. Is there any chance, Tray Turner is just not a good hitter next year?

No. This year. No. Well, he, to be fair, he wasn't a very good hitter last year. Right? What was his batting average? 270. 284. 284? But that was with like the lowest possible line drive rate you could see him having.

Like half the line drive rate he had is a rookie. So, I mean, as a hitter last year, last year, sorry, that was weird saying last year twice a row like that. As a hitter last year, that seems like the worst case scenario for Trey Turner. And he was still studly because he ran so much. So I don't know. I think he's really good. Trey Turner, his first 36 games, he was awful.

He had a 670 OPS, and a lot of, most of it was like Coors Field Production. He was just terrible for 36 games. And then his last 62 games, he had an 857 OPS. He's really had, in his young career, one terrible slump and mostly been very good. All right, there you go. Now another question, another Roto Categor's question. Then we will get to, you know what, let's move the order around. All right, we'll do this question next.

This question will be, what are the best categories? Because I'm seeing a lot of more six-by-six, seven-by-seven leagues. I think Heath was talking about that last week. What are the best categories? Well, we'll get to that in a second. Let's get to the news and notes. We've got to talk about Jake Arieta. Three years, $75 million deal with the Phillies.

Also, Lance Lynn, one year, $12 million with the twins. Those are the big news items. And those are two guys who have been, in Arietta's case, the last two years, a lot better at home than on the road. and Lance Lynn, most of his career are better at home than on the road. Now they're moving to new stadiums. So Areetta, $3,000, $75 million to the Phillies, value up, down, or the same. I'm leaving him the same because I didn't have high hopes for him ending up on a really good team in a good park.

I think this is fine. Like, it's not a very good park. This has a lot more to do with Jake Areata, in my opinion, than the Lance Lynn situation does. if he gets back to pitching like Jake Garietta can pitch, then being in Philadelphia is not going to hurt him. Yeah, because a big part of what made Jake Garietta Studley in the years that he was was he was so good at keeping the ball on the ground, keeping it in the park. That was a big part of the formula for him.

But I'm a little more concerned about it because I'm not hopeful of him getting back to that. And since his home run rate basically doubled last year, playing in a park that's pretty neutral, going to what was the worst home run park in baseball last year. It's going to make it harder for him to, I guess, mask those deficiencies that developed last year, that he was able to do specifically in the second half, bringing his ERA down to something palatable. But, you know, I wasn't going to like him no matter where he landed, It's just because I'm so worried about the decline aspect of this. It's just going to this park specifically is going to exacerbate that.

If that's really what's happening here, if he really is declining. I would still rather draft him than Otani than Kyle Hendricks, then Sunny Gray, than James and Tyone. But I've got him behind guys like Alex Wood, Rich Hill, Lance McCullors. I might make an exception, Sunny Gray there. I might put him behind Gray. but I know I have gray higher than you do so right well I mean actually you guys couldn't be farther apart on here I mean you could technically but you're so far apart on Jake Arietta Scott Scott's gonna come my way again yeah I need to move him down some more but I noticed also I think Heath just has starting pitchers rank lower in general but I have him 34th at starting pitcher yeah okay and Scott right now has him 19th so I can't imagine I'm gonna drop him to the 30s no probably low 20s and putting guys like Lance McCullors uh... Lake Snell you have ahead of him, Heath, Tana Roark. And those two, not Roark.

I just, Roark's a little different animal. But for McCullors, for Snell, for Rich Hill, that's probably more about my Roto strategy than it is about Jake Ery, either. Which is what, just, like, get the best guys on a per-ending basis? Exactly. Yeah, not worry about innings as much. All right. Exactly.

And then, yeah, because you do a Varyetta ahead of McCullors and points leagues. I mean, to sum it up with Arietta, look, he was amazing until basically after the All-Star break of 2016, and the last year and a half's been a little rocky. Last year, for some reason, he had about twice as many road innings as home innings. He had 50 more innings on the road than at home, which was weird. And he gave up 19 home runs on the road and only four at home. And his EZRA was a run higher on the road. Part of that is that he did a worst job of keeping the ball out of the year. I think he had a career high fly ball rate, 34.4%.

His line drive rate was 20%. So like 55% of the balls hit against him. We're in the air. That's partially his fault. Part of it was a little bit of bad luck. He's been around a 10% home run to fly ball rate his entire career. He was 14% last year, and he didn't give up hard contact at a real hard rate. So I do think even if he continues to give up fly balls, going to a worst

Park, I would still expect his home run totals to come down a little bit this year. Okay, so then let me ask you this final stuff on Jake Arieta. Two things and what you make of them. Number one, post-all-star break-y to 228 ERA, but only 61 strikeouts and 67 innings and 8% swinging strike rate. What does that mean to you? Part of it was he made some adjustments to get more ground balls. It still wasn't the rate like we saw in 2015 and 2016.

A big part of it also was he had a 235 Babbitt during that stretch. So, you know, it was kind of fortunate. Okay. And then second thing for Arietta, last thing, how much do you, and this goes with John Lester, too, how much do you value, think of the World Series effect, pitching deep into the season in 2016? Did it carry over and make their numbers look bad in 2017? And can they rebound? I don't know that it did for Ariadta because the year before that, he'd thrown 229 innings.

and he only threw 197 in the regular season in 2016, so I'm not sure I buy that with him. Okay. I'm more likely personally to buy that with younger pitchers, and maybe that's wrong. Maybe, I mean, he did actually throw more innings in 2015 than 2016, when you combine the postseason. Right.

So it's a good point. All right then, moving on. Lance Lynn, you got, like, this guy is innings, good ERA, consistent pitcher. But I know you must hate the strikeout rate that was 40 walks of 60 strikeouts after the All-Star break, even though he had a 321 ERA. I'm glad Chris is not here because he would disagree with this and probably be right, but I'm just going to say it anyway. This just looks to me, and some of these, like the Mike Mastakis thing didn't make any sense. He took the worst end of free agency. I think anyone could.

But this one just looks like baseball teams being a little bit smarter. Lance Lynn was exceptionally lucky last year. He had a 4.82 FIP, a 485 Sierra, and his ERA was 343. We'd say, well, at least he's an innings eater. You know what? If he had been, if he had had normal luck last year, he wouldn't have been an inning's eater. He threw 186 innings over 33 starts with that type of luck, a 79% strand rate and a 244 bad back against.

If he had just had normal luck, he probably throws 170 innings last year. year with a terrible ERA, I want no part of Lance Lynn. I guess I'm going to take the positive side of this. Like, you're going to pay a lot less for Lance Lynn than Jake Garriette on draft day, and it wouldn't surprise me if they give you similar numbers. Yeah, last year, if you're just assessing Lynn on last year, it does certainly look like he overachieved, but it was first year back from Tommy John surgery. and for most of his career

like yes he's he's always out he's always outperformed his FIP but like the FIP was usually in the low to mid-3s It's weird. It's weird He outperformed his FIP the two years before he got hurt by about a half a run The two years before that he was worse than his FIP Yeah but the thing is like

low to mid-3s is what he's profiled as in terms of FIP in terms of ERA prior to Tommy John's surgery. There was a drop in strikeout rate is first year back. I don't think that's surprising first year back from Tommy John surgery. So, like, I've never thought of Lance Lynn

as a front-line pitcher. The whip's always a little on the high side. The strikeouts are always a little on the low side. But I think that's basically to the point I'm at with Jake Areeta now. And just, based on usage last year, I'm not sure Arieta is the safer bet for innings either. So, like, I... It has nothing to do with him going to the twins specifically.

I just think Lance Lynn might be a little undervalued right now. So, Lynn, you mentioned the strikeouts a little on the low side and the whip a little on the high side. I do wonder if he's a guy who's better suited for a points league than a Categorries League or Roto League. Yeah, probably. He is if he gets that fantastic luck again. But otherwise... Or if he just goes back to pitching like he used to before Tommy, John. I mean, it's possible...

Like, he almost had a strikeout pre-a-annibal-a-all-star break. And then after that, I don't know, maybe... Maybe he just ran out of gas and the strikeouts plummeted. I know you hate it when I do this, but I am going to say Steamer hasn't projected for a 495 ERA. Yeah, I just wonder, I just wonder, like, why is last year the thing to look at rather than his entire career? You know?

You can blend his entire career and say he's going to be better. Maybe he has a four ERA. I don't see. And to, like, because I was, because I'm basically assessing Jake Gerea to very negatively, based on just what he did last year. And I'm giving a positive spin to Lance Lynn, kind of excusing what he did last year. Seems inconsistent.

It does seem inconsistent. It does seem inconsistent. But you know what makes it easy to justify? The price difference. Like, you can, you can take a glass half full approach to a guy who's going to cost you very little. I did. But it's hard to be that optimistic for a guy who's going to cost you a top 100 pick, like Arietta will.

To be clear, I'm not going to. to draft either of them. But since ADP boy is not here, I don't know what the difference in ADP is. I can tell you, it's huge. I mean, well, first of all, Lance Lynn is going one pick after Blake Snell. Blake Snell is like the 56th pitcher off the board. Arieta is going 95th overall, and Lance Lynn is in the 200s. He's 216.

So Snell is crazy underdrafted. But this group is Lance Lynn. We're talking about pitchers 58 through 60. Lance Lynn, Faria, Porcelo. Who's your favorite? Lance Lynn? I don't even know. I guess probably in Roto.

No, I'm just going to stick with Porcelo. Okay. You know what? I said Lance Lin a little too quickly because I know I have Faria ranked the highest of three. Faria's had a really rough spring. Yes, he's on my spring losers list. He's been terrible.

Yikes. So that's something to keep an eye out for sure. And maybe it means nothing. but for a guy with as little as experiences he has and for the, you know, the razor attempting something a little different with their starting rotation, which is another hurdle for him to clear. Yeah, I'm a little worried about Jacob Ferrea. Faria has numbers that are hard to believe.

Like the 1662 ERA is one thing, but five walks, no strikeouts in four and a third. That's hard to believe so far. That seems bad. That's pretty bad. All right, so anyway, I think that pretty much concludes it on Lynn. but it's probably a park downgrade, right? And he is a guy who's been a lot better at home. It is a slight park downgrade, yes.

Okay. More news. Robinson Canoe is going to have an MRI on his hamstring, but he doesn't think it's serious and we'll keep an eye on it. Ryan Braun hates first base. That doesn't look like a great option right now, putting him at first base. Bad news for Domingo Santana.

I hope somebody steps up and makes the Brewers an offer. Or is it just better? news for Ryan Braun. Could they just go with Santana over Braun? I'd be surprised. I don't think that will happen in April on opening day, but I think there is a very good chance that he plays more than Ryan Braun this year. Right. Yeah, I mean, between Braun and Kane, you do have two pretty injury pro and players in the outfield. Uh, or anybody Bonifacio, spend it 80 games for PEDs. Heath talked about that. White Sox outfielder Luis Robert, if that's how you pronounce it. We'll miss about 10 weeks with a

sprained ligament in his thumb. Evan Longoria has a sore ankle. Corey Canable has a tweaked knee. Kenley Jansen had hamstring tightness. So those just very day-to-day for now. How about Jonathan Lucreux of the A's guys? What do you think about that? I'm glad he has a team.

Yeah. And probably, you know, a number one role, which I wasn't even sure he was going to have as late as this was dragging on. Yeah, I don't expect a big bounce back. especially in that environment. Yeah, not a good park. A little bit of a park downgrade from Colorado to... Just a little.

Would you guys take Lucroy or a Dodgers catcher? I'd take Yasmani Grandeau right now. I'd take either Dodgers catcher. Wellington Castillo or Jonathan Luchoy? Wellington. Yeah, I like Wellington better than the Dodgers catchers. Lucroy or Zunino? Zanino and Roto.

Yeah. All right. Lucroy end points. I can't tell you how mad I am at myself in the auction that we did a few weeks ago for not getting Grandal and taking Zunino instead. Zanino was the guy, I hit the dollar, like the extra, like bid an extra dollar button. I was like, why did I just do that? I'm going to win him now. Nobody wants him.

Why did I take it? I was so stupid. But they did have a great year. Let's go Zanito. Francisco Laryano is going to be in the Tigers rotation. You have AOL only interest in him. Sure. Yeah.

I have AOL only interest in anybody with the job. But no, I mean, like, he could still be a pretty good strikeout source. Man, the tiger's rotation is bad. Red's rotation takes a hit with Anthony Diedis Sclafani with an oblique injury. Any news? There's Amir Garrett. I know you guys talked about him like two weeks ago, but you still feel in Amir Garrett? That helps his chances of starting the year there.

Yeah. His spring took a turn for the worse, but yeah, I mean, one less. competitor. Matt Carpenter said his back felt good during an intra-squad game. Good. Delano DeShields will lead off and play center field for Texas. We talked about that. And Adam Eaton has played in some minor league games and he's on track and hopefully

we'll be ready for opening day. If not, it shouldn't be long for Adam Eaton. So I ask you what are the best categories and I ask you this after I tell you about the best website and app for tickets. It's baseball time. It's tournament time. There are plenty of games to go to right now. Use Seat Geek to get there.

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I'm in a seven-by-seven league. I've also determined that I don't think there are more than six good pitching categories. So let's talk about the best categories. Let's make our ideal categories league. What does it look like? I think mine's still 5 by 5, but I do have quality starts instead of wins. Okay, so it's quality starts, strikeouts, ERA, whip and saves. I do kind of like saves minus blown saves as well.

Okay, I like that. That's cool. That's 5 by 5. Now you want to put WIP in there? You want to put wins in there? Sure. You want to put holds in there. That's fine.

Is it? I mean, I don't want to do it. You want to do holds plus saves? That's fine. What I don't like seeing is another pitching ratio stat. Because K-per-9 pisses me off. I hate K-4-9. And now I'm playing in a K-per-9 league, and I want to stab it.

I hate K-9. Well, first off, it should be K-per-9 and not K-R-9. Oh, really, Chris? K-per-Sand- Well, K-per-Sage is much better. K-per-9, you're getting rewarded for giving up, for facing more. More batters. Actually, that's fine. That's a good point.

Well, I hate K%. Yes. If you're facing that many more batters, though, nobody's going to want you for your ERA and with. They may want you for your K for a K for nine. No. No. There are pitchers, like Danny Salazar a couple years ago.

Carlos rode on have greatly benefited from it. They can give you a league average ERA at the same time. Scott, what do you think about pitching categories? What would be your preference? I mean, I'm kind of a traditionalist about these things. Like, I totally understand wins are kind of a dumb stat in terms of evaluating players. Oh, this pitcher had this many wins, so he must be a good pitcher. This one didn't, so he's bad.

Like, I get that. I do kind of like the strategy of trying to figure out where I can find wins. Like, to me, that's a fun exercise. It's also kind of a frustrating exercise, but that's part of what makes it fun. So I want to stick with wins. And honestly, on the hitting end, Are we just sticking to pitcher stats now, or can we talk about... Let's wrap up pitcher stats, because quality starts a little bit more interesting since starting pitchers don't go that deep into games anymore.

Yeah, there's become a greater differentiation there between the good and the bad pitchers than there used to be, which makes it more defensible. And you also have brought up innings as an extra stat, which is fun. Yeah, yeah. The problem with that is you really... you can do this. I'm not, I am not somebody that says one way is good and the other way is bad. I like playing with lots of different rules.

But the problem with adding win, innings, or having wins and quality starts, is you just eliminate the relief pitcher strategy. That is one strategy that's gone. Yeah, that's a good point. Well, I mean, wins, relief pitchers, if you went heavy on relief pitchers, you weren't going to do very well in wins either.

Right, but if you're adding a sixth category and it's a starting pitcher only category. Yeah, okay. I had always presented innings as a replacement for wins, but yeah, I'm not sure. Like, that's just such a volume stat. Oh, as a replacement for wins. That's all measuring is volume. So, and I just wonder in leagues that are not set up carefully, like, you know, daily,

daily lineups with daily transactions, just how exploitable is that category going to be, just throwing in whatever crap starter is starting. that night. I haven't vetted this, so I can't get fully behind it. Like, if I would actually experience a league with innings instead of wins, I might decide it's a disaster. It's just, it's hard for me to foresee all the potential pitfalls there. So Heath and I, I think, are on the quality starts, strikeouts, ERA, whip, saves

five by five. Scott, well, let's just say five. We'll get into hitting. Scott is the same five except he prefers wins to quality starts. And then, like, if you add holds, like, if you add holds and innings, does that kind of balance it out? That balances it out. If I'm going to count holds, I kind of would rather just do saves plus holds. Okay.

Keep it at five, but. All right, fair enough. All right, so then hitting. Scott, what are your favorite hitting categories? My favorite are the traditional ones. I can understand, though, wanting to do on-base percentage instead of batting average. I think that's a better measurement. And it takes into account more of the things the hitter does well.

So I guess that means I'm in favor of the Tout War setup, which is the traditional five on each side, except replacing batting average with on-base percentage. I'm fine just sticking with batting average, but I'm fine going on-base percentage, too. Yeah, I feel the same way. Yeah, I greatly prefer on-base percentage to batting average. I don't know about great,

because I feel like walks are lame. Right. Yeah, I understand it. Like put the bat on the ball. People swing the bat. Oh, gosh. No, walks is going to hit, right? Whatever.

Yeah, I'm down for that. Five by five with OBP and quality starts or batting average, whatever. But if you want to add some categories, I guess people want to get away from five by five. Here's one thing I kind of want to stress. I don't think you need to have an even amount of pitching and hitting categories. I agree. And everybody, you know, some people are kind of obsessed with that. We've got to be seven by seven.

six by six, whatever. No, like, do seven by six if you want. And I'm going to propose that to the league I'm in because we're just, K-per-9 is driving me crazy. Like, I don't want that. I don't want that at all. Maybe I'm being selfish. But we don't need seven pitching categories.

Like, do seven-by-six. Who cares? Big deal. Yeah. I mean, I guess the argument would be, well, that skews things toward hitters. And so, you know, you're going to, pitchers are going to be undervalued by comparison.

I don't know if that's necessarily true. It would depend on what the categories are. I mean, I think 5 by 4 would be different than 7 by 6, you know? Like you have so many categories. Yeah. That doesn't skew it as much. I also like changing stolen bases to steals minus caught stealing. Totally fine with that.

Yeah, why not? Why not? In terms of adding hitter categories, and one of my frustrations with category leagues in general is that, you know, compared to points, there's a lot of contributions players make that make them good or not so good that are not even

valued on any level in those formats. It's such a narrow focus on those five categories. But I don't know that adding categories is a solution to it. Like if you added doubles as a category, if you added triples as a category, like another problem with the categories league setup is that these are all weighted on the same level

when obviously a double doesn't equal a home run. Well, that's why total bases is a better category. Yeah, probably. Walks plus hit by pitch. No, no, that's OBP. No, that's OBP. But total basis is a good category. I like total bases.

So you're rewarding home runs twice. No, maybe total bases instead of home runs. Yeah. Well, if home runs are more important than other things, then I think they should be rewarded twice. Well, I don't know that they are. They're important because they get you four bases. Well, that's twice as many as a double.

Yeah. I mean, the thing is a stolen base is, we're already down the path of a stolen base is weighted just like a home run, which is itself crazy. It's true. So, like, I don't think there's ever going to be a way to reconcile that completely with the rotisserie with the categories set up. So I just think if you wanted to add total bases as a category, I actually. I can understand that, but doing like doubles and triples individually, that's taking it too far. So the bottom line is we are boring and we like five by five. There you go.

Replace batting avers with OVP and maybe wins with quality starts. And we move on. And, oh, some fun stuff to announce. Here we go. First of all, who's going to win the tournament, guys? How are you feeling about the Jayhawks? Um, it depends completely on if Azabuque gets back, but they have had a player really stepped up, Silvio DeSouza, played awesome during the Big 12 tournaments, and if Azabuque comes back and those guys are both playing at that level, I think Kansas has a real shot. Okay, yeah, sure, I think Villanova is going to win.

No, I kind of, I don't know, I like Duke. The bracket's out. The bracket's out, of course. I can make a, I can set up a bracket. Not only can you, you have to, because last year, last year we had more than 1,400 listeners join us in a bracket challenge. And the winner, now unfortunately, it has to be the winner after the second weekend right before the podcast league draft. The winner, whoever has the most points, is in the podcast league. So that's one way in.

I will reserve a podcast league spot for whoever is leading the bracket challenge at that point. Who won it last year? I don't remember. When is our draft? Our draft is Monday, March 26th. It's two weeks from today. So they are going to get just a little bit less than 24 hours notice that they are in the league. Yeah, but if they're listening, they know that they're in, that they're in if they are in first place.

Okay. We did it last year and it worked. So here's our podcast league information. First of all, about the bracket challenge. Follow me on Twitter at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R. I will tweet out links to it. You can follow along there. You can email if you need to Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, and I will send you a link to it.

I'll create it at some point today. So, again, at Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R, and Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, if you need a link to the bracket challenge. But join it, and standard rules. I guess it's heading into the Final Four, it's going to be, like after the Elite 8. Whoever has the most points is in the podcast league, I'll have to break any ties by myself. But the podcast league, the Points League, our draft will be Monday, March 26th, 8 p.m. Eastern. Monday, March 26th, 8 p.m. Eastern, 12 team points league. We already have one participant for that. Wednesday, March 28th is going to be the Rejects League, or the for the

People League, which is the 16 team head head categories. That's the day before the season starts. Yes. We're starting early this year. Wednesday, March 28th, 8 p.m. He, has that work for you? That will be 8 p.m. Eastern. And we also already have one person in. I haven't read the email, but Carl May is in. And Isaac, right? Isaac, I guess, I already said he was in, too, so we have two. And the way to get in, it's different. How are people getting into the podcast? Hikus. Hikus. They're going to send us hikus to Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

I assume there are some people out there that would prefer to be in the For the People League. And just expressing that is a good way to get into the Four the People League. Also, I like it when people send emails telling how much they like me. So that might help you as well. Or if you can come up with a clever rule that we can add, the For the People Podcast League is always looking to evolve as a league. If you can come up with a clever rule that will further make Scott White pull his hair out, that may get you in as well.

All right, so Scott and I will share a team, I believe Heath and Chris will share a team, and we'll have 12 spots for listeners for the People League, which is Wednesday, March 28th at 8 p.m. That's the draft. Monday, March 26 at APM. 14 spots for listeners, right? My bad, yeah, 14. Yeah. Monday, March 26 at 8 p.m.

is the podcast points league, 12 team head-to-head points. And, okay, if you cannot make that time, please do not apply. If you can make that time, please apply by submitting your haiku. And a haiku is three sentences, five syllables, seven syllables, five syllables. Here are two examples. Hiku number one. Adam Scott, Heath, Chris. What do they have in common?

Fantasy baseball. That's number one. That's pretty good, right? Number two, the best cereal? Dude, this is so obvious. Clearly, Golden Gramps. Those are hikus. Are those hikus written by you?

Yeah, I wrote them. Yeah. Not very poetic, are you? Thanks, Scott. All right. So I think we have two segments left plus emails, and I think we'll save the crazimeter for tomorrow. I'm going to give you guys a prediction, and you're going to tell me how crazy it is.

Like Billy Hamilton hits well. You're going to put that on the crazyometer. We'll do that too. Whoa. Yeah, I know. Pretty crazy. That's where it ranks. Miguel Cabrera finishes top five in ALMVP.

You'll tell me where that is on the crazyometer. But instead, let's do spring training, good and bad. Let's see who's moving up. Oh, our boy, John Hopkins, one of our favorite listeners, sent us a link to some Lucas Gialito video of him striking out eight, Cubs this weekend. So he's been good. And here are just names of pitchers who have been good. Gialito.

Luke Weaver, man. Nine innings, one run, nine strikeouts, one walk so far. Garrett Richards has a two ERA, two walks, 12 strikeouts. That's pretty much it. And Stephen Matt's had a better start. There are others. You guys should definitely contribute. Definitely contribute.

But the three that I had were Gialito, Weaver, and Richards that kind of stood out to me. Yeah, no, those definitely stood out this, well, Golito and Weaver definitely stood out this weekend. Weaver's actually added a slurve to his arsenal this spring was basically fastball change up last year and thought hitters caught up to it late. But there was an interesting piece on MLB.com about him because it kind of talked about what makes him so effective, what makes him so hard to hit. And basically he pushes off differently from any other pitch. pitcher and it causes the ball to come out at a weird angle.

So there is effectiveness for him beyond just the stuff. And he kind of makes sense looking at the minor league numbers, insanely low ERAs. But that combined with what we saw last year, combined with what we saw this spring, I don't have any shares in Luke Weaver yet. Maybe I should get some. Okay. Are you more encouraged by Lucas G. Alito? Yeah, I mean, it was certainly eight strikeouts and four innings from a guy who,

our main concern about him was not enough missed bats. I mean, curveball was clearly working in that game. It looks like a great swing and miss pitch for him. And honestly, the swinging strikes weren't as bad as the strikeouts themselves in the stint we saw him last year. So I do think there's some untapped potential here.

Obviously going much later than Weaver. Yeah, almost free on draft grade, 237 ADP with a guy with his pedigree. I'm not saying that I buy into that type of. a performance, but it's much more notable when he's so cheap. Okay, that's Lucas Gialito and Luke Weaver, and then as far as Garrett Richards goes, he's in between Weaver and Gialito, I assume. And, yeah, in terms of where he's going. I think he's more proven than we're giving him credit for.

Yeah, my big concern with him is that I don't, maybe mid-year he will, but I don't expect him to pitch deep into games, and I don't expect him to make as many starts as other pitchers. And those two things combined are really going to limit the upside. Yeah, I hear that. But I think it's also worth pointing out very, he's been efficient this spring, and he was crazy efficient coming back from injury last year, too. I mean, there were two, five-inning starts and a six-inning start.

But he didn't throw 90 pitches in any of them. It was between 65 and 85. 90s probably his ceiling in April? Maybe. Yeah. I mean, I kind of feel like, you know, now that they've worked them back in last season, they're just going to, I don't know, maybe not turn them loose completely, but they're not going to be nearly as careful, especially since they're going with the six-man rotation and I'll have more time to recover between starts. But I don't know for sure. I just think inning for inning he could be dominant.

And it's not, you know, it's not in the super risky way we've been saying that about Tyler Glass now and Matt Harvey. Like, I feel like more likely than not, inning per inning, Richards is going to be dominant. All right, that's Garrett Richards. So Garrett Richards is going. It's a Duffy, or it's John Gray, Danny Duffy, Gary, Duffy, Garrett Richards, Chase Anderson, Michael Fulmer. Gray, Duffy, Richards, Anderson, Fulmer. Fulmer's, you know, got to be last in that group, right? Yeah, though.

I mean, it was good to see him come out and pitch Wells first start after having that nerve transplant surgery, which I think was the same one Matt's had, and he did not come out looking good. So, yeah, I mean, Fulmer, I've never been a big former guy because the strikeout rates have been low, but he's gotten good results with it. But as far as Richards goes, would you take him ahead of John Gray or Danny Duffy? No. No. I don't think so.

Like, I'd be more likely to draft him than either of those guys. Certainly gray, but it has to be later. All right, then let's go through these hitters. Quick thoughts. Francisco Mejia, Indians catcher, batting 421 with two home runs. I just don't, he's not going to start the year in the majors. So, I mean, it's exciting in a two-catcher league if you just want to punt one of your catchers at the start of the year. But it may take until the middle of May or June before you see him. Okay.

Ronald Ocuna, talk about him again. 419 batting average, four steals, four walk, seven strikeouts. Great spring for him. Yeah, I think what people are really sleeping on is the steals potential. and I mean he's demonstrated it this spring that's as scarce as that category is he's probably worth drafting you may not need to

but he's probably worth drafting in the top ten rounds just for that Are you moving up again this week, Scott? I'll have to look at it again I've moved him up quite a bit already he's I think 30th for me This is Ronald O'Cunia we're talking about Hey I have a random question

I want to go back to like five minutes into the podcast Sure. If I want to take Nolan Aeronado instead of a trade turn or third overall, what if I just reach, like, very early for DeLynaudor to Shields, like round 12, where I know I'm absolutely going to get him, just for the steals. I don't think that's a reach in Roto. Okay, fine, then I take him in round 10,

just to make sure I get DeLanorto to Shields, and now I have Aeronado into Shields to cover myself. Have you seen DeSields go as early as round 12? Because I'm just saying I don't think it's a reach based on value. Okay. I mean, I'm always of the mindset you want to squeeze as much value as you can out of everything. So like the last point before I think somebody else is going to take them, that's where I want to take them. So just philosophically, I can't subscribe to that. The outfielder's being drafted in rounds 10 and 11 are Eddie Rosario, Ian Desmond, Inder Anciarte, Adam Jones.

Yeah, I don't. Seems normal. It seems fine. take to take shields there. Yeah, I don't want to take a chance. If I need steals, I don't want to take a chance on missing the shields and take one of those guys. And who knows? Maybe with this news, De Shields will, ADP will shoot way out. I don't know. But, you know what I'm saying? Like, if I make sure I get the shields, and could I just take Aeronado and Notray Turner? I don't think it's, I don't think it's exactly the same. Like, I could totally see how that would work out just fine for you. But a lot of things I want to do might work out fine for

people. It's a lot of things nobody would think to do are going to work out great. It's just, it's not like, I think you have to put yourself in the best, in the position to have the best team possible. And I think intentionally overpaying for somebody by several rounds doesn't accomplish that. Okay. So back to the good spring training hitters. Marcus Simeon, Marcus Simeon batting 407.

He was like practically 2020 last year, or on pace anyway. Simian doing well, Yommer Sanchez for the White Sox. Second Basement has a 1065 OPS. How about those two? I'm assuming Simian is the only one that matters there. Yeah, I don't have much interest in Yolmer. All right. Is Simeon a good middle infield option?

He's fine. Yeah, he's kind of, the way he gets pushed out is kind of, it kind of speaks to the way depths increased at the middle infield spots this year because he was, you know, he's above average on a per game basis last year. I don't know that, like, a spring without any home runs or steals, I don't know that that's catching my eye the way it caught yours, especially for a player who I see is more or less established. Yeah, true.

Sure. I'm wondering if Jose Porella is going to play his way into a starting job this spring. Yeah, he has been, like, I've given him the leg up on Hunter Renfro anyway, but, yeah, the spring performance, it's not even close. He's got a 5-59 on base with six walks and eight strikeouts so far. And what's interesting is he's played some second base, too, and they don't really have a good option there. Okay.

Jose Perella. Yeah, he's an outfieler for the Padres, but if he plays second, that's very interesting. And he had a pretty good slash line last year. 288, 347, 490? Wow, pretty good. Padre is going to be good. But he's 28.

Yeah, it was one of those hitters who kept hitting well in the minors, and nobody wanted to give him a job, and it takes winding up with the team. as with so little to offer as the Padres for that guy to break through sometimes and that seems to have been what happened last year for Porella. I don't know why, as well as he hit for them down the stretch,

I don't know why they shy away from that. All right, let's go a little quicker here. A couple of catchers. Blake Swihart for the Red Sox and Austin Hedges for the Padres who are going to be great. Both doing well, Swihart and Hedges. And it wasn't too long ago

that we thought Blake Swihart might be a high average hitter and a good bat or decent bat. But the only thing I've seen about Swyhart is that a lot of teams are trying to trade for him. Yeah, with the Red Sox, it seems like he's going to have to play a super duper utility role where he's, you know, catchers among the positions he'd be playing. And it's not for sure they're going to, he's not for sure they're going to be confident enough at his defense at other spots to want to go with that. And he's out of options, so it may be that he winds up with another team. And that would probably be the best thing for him,

because it just doesn't seem like the Red Sox are going to be able to make the time for him behind the play. Well, Swihard and Hedges are either of them worth drafting. Hedges certainly in a two-catcher league. Swihard, I think, is a little outside of that, at least as things stand right now. How about Colorado first baseman? Ryan McMahon. He's having a really nice spring with 366 batting average, one walk, five strikeouts. He does have five doubles.

And in 2017, at double A, he had a 926 OPS, even better at AAA in the PCL. McMahon, I mean, nobody talks about him. Heath, he was your sleeper in the first base preview. Yeah, and I will probably move him up again this week. Every week they go without signing Mark Reynolds. Makes me feel a little bit better. The Carlos Gonzalez signing doesn't help McMahon, but if he hits like this, it doesn't matter. I think the Carlos Gonzalez signing.

helped distinguish McMahon from David Dahl a little more because now, you know, one more, one more mouth defeat in the outfields is going to favor the guy who plays first base versus the one who favors the outfield. The only... Yes, the only downside from McMahon could be if they decide to move in Desmond to first.

Or Parra. What is his potential, McMahon? He's the regular first basement for the Rockies. I don't know that it's that far from Trevor Story's rookie year. Okay. I would think it's a lot better because he's not, you know, he's a really good contact hitter, too. He had 355 in the minors last year. And, you know, part of that was that a hitter-friendly environment?

Part of it wasn't. He had 3.30 at Hartford. Yeah, you need to have Ryan McMahon on your radar when you draft. Aaron Hicks is off to a nice start here in the spring. And what I love is seven walks to four strikeouts. That was a huge development for his. last year before his oblique injury, he had 37 walks and 42 strikeouts in 60 games. So he's a nice little late round pick, Aaron Hicks.

How about any of these guys? Curtis Granderson, Trey Mancini, Yonder Alonzo. Yeah, spring numbers aren't doing much for me for any of them. Mancini is a guy that I think that maybe CBS is lower on than the rest of the industry. It seems like he gets drafted when we do industry mocks a lot higher than he does when it's mostly just CBS guys. and he was pretty awesome last year. So he's probably something that deserves a little bit more credit than he's getting.

I want to mention a pitcher who wasn't in your group at him. Marco Estrada has had a great spring, and I think he's a big bounceback candidate because he realized this offseason from watching some video. He was tipping his change up last year, slowing his arm down visibly. And like the change up is the key to everything because this fastball's high 80s, you know. I thought you were going to say he found his lucky horseshoe. He's going to get back to his 220 badbip. Maybe.

Maybe. I mean, as extreme of a fly ball pitcher as he is when he's on. Yeah, I think he's going to have a big bounce. I think there's the potential for a big bounce back here, and like nobody's paying anything for him. I will fully admit that I'm biased against Marco Estrada. He's basically, like, his last four years, his fifth has been 488, 440, 415, 461.

I think last year he just had an unlucky year. And he should bounce back. but maybe to a low 4s ERA. And bad spring training players. Shohei Otani did not have a good start against Milwaukee, an inning in two-thirds. I think I might have the wrong line for him, but it wasn't good. So Otani, Paxton, Faria, John Gray. Those are four pitchers who were off the bad starts.

Otani, Paxton, Faria, and John Gray. Paxon and Freya have been terrible. Anything concerned you guys there? I'm more concerned about Faria than Paxton, but Paxton hasn't been throwing his heart this spring. And what I've read is that he's so tall and lanky, it takes a little longer for his mechanics to sink up and for him to max out his ability like that,

which I can buy. The Mariners don't seem worried at all. It's just hard for me not to worry a little when a guy who broke through because he started throwing 100 is throwing like 93, 94 instead. Yeah, Paxton said that he's, I think he said like he's where he usually is at this point. I don't know if that's true or not. But, okay, that's something.

I can buy it. It's just hard. Like when you're drafting Paxton is your sneaky number two, it's hard to look and see he's not throwing his hard this spring. You know, that's, it does plant this little seed of doubt in your minds that maybe you should just ignore. but it's one of those situations where probably the person who's not paying any attention to spring training is a little better off. I think I just came up with a haiku

for my feelings on Otani. Oh, okay. You can laugh at how I got the syllables wrong, just trying to do this on the fly. Okay. Otani, nope, none. More like no toni for me. Fade the Angel's staff.

More like no toni for me. Oh, nice. Nice. I think you got to. you nailed it. Thank you. And then there's Glaber Torres having a crappy spring.

I don't think he's going to be the starting second baseman. No, I don't think he is either. But we'll... What's that guy's name? Tyler Wade. Miguel Anduhar be the starting third baseman with Drury.

Because Andrew Har's at a good spring. Anderhar's had a great spring. You talked about it, the show I wasn't on. It's really Andrew Har's defense that concerns them. Yeah. But, man, he can hit. Yeah. I don't know.

I feel like it's going to be Tyler Wade at second and Drury at third to start the season. Probably. Yeah. But Torres is rusty. I mean, Torres missed so much time last year. So he's not helping his chances of making the opening day roster just yet. But look, it's only March 12th. There's still a couple weeks left there.

A week and a half left the spring training basically and two weeks before. No, no. It's like two weeks of spring training. And then the game starts in like two and a half weeks, right? All right. Let's finish with some emails here. James and Fort Worth, dear Mike, John, Tom, and Jay. Mike, John, Tom, and Jay.

They are basketball coaches. College basketball. Shoshavsky, Jay Wright, Tom Izzo, John. Calipari? Sure. Have the Cardinals turn into the Patriots of Fantasy Baseball? I tend to stay away from investing too heavily in anyone not named Tom Brady on the Patriots because their players seem to perform and be used inconsistently.

I've compiled a list of players from the Cardinals over the years that were inconsistent from year to year, came out of nowhere to produce, or were one-year wonders. Matt Carpenter, Paul DeYoung, Tommy Pham, Matt Adams, Colton Wong, Jason Hayward, Stephen Piscati, Randall, Randall, Grychuk, a lead Miss Diaz, Matt Holiday, late in his career, Johnny Peralta, John Jay, Alan, Craig, David Frees, Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Michael Walker, Trevor Rosenthal. That's a lot of names, and a lot of these names definitely do not fit the out-of-nower or one-year-wonder type players. No, I didn't think he meant that all of them were like that. I think there were separate categories. Those were just random Cardinals that some of them had been one-year wonders.

Some have been out of nowhere. Some have been one-year wonders. Some have been inconsistent. I think the point was like you could never rely on your expectations for Cardinals players. No, I don't think that's true. Okay, we're not buying it. Thank you. It was a fun email, though, James.

I do. The one thing I would say is I think that they do have a little short history here building of guys they bring from out of nowhere from the minor leagues that just disappear after one year. All right, we'll see what happens with Mr. D. Young. We gave him a nice contract. Michael says, I listen to the Friday podcast where you said closers aren't as valuable in points league. The ESPN guys say closers are more valuable in points. They even have Jansen as a first round pick. Can you explain?

Yeah, now, here's the thing. I don't know what the points format is on ESPN, but the reason why I said that, if I said it, closers are less valuable in points leagues is because you only need two, as opposed to in like a 12-team Roto League where everybody wants, like every single closer is owned. So it actually was more of a scarcity thing. But even still, like even if they're extremely scarce, like there's no scenario.

Like maybe chances are worth 10 points and strikeouts are worth a full point. Maybe that would elevate closers overall and it would distinguish the really good ones from the really bad ones more. What I think also probably factors into that is they're using some sort of value-based drafting where you're looking at what's the difference over the last couple of years between Ken Lay Jansen and the number of 24 or 25 closer. And comparing it that way with every other position,

Jansen's going to seem much more valuable. Last email for today. Maybe we can do two here. Ben from the Metro D.C. area, which players beginning the season on the D.L. Are you going to stash? Jimmy Nelson is top of the list for me. Well, among ones who I expect an extended absence from. a good chance somebody like Adam Eaton will spend a few days on the DL.

So I don't know if we're going to count those. Yeah, let's do the extended absence. Carlos Rodon? Yeah, probably. Yeah, he's last round, same as Salazar. Michael Conforto, I think, is a little higher than him. Maybe Irvin Santana in a points league, but I'm not doing it right. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah, that might be. I mean, I'm starting to wonder if Daniel, Murphy isn't going to miss extended time, but I know we haven't been drafting them. I know most people aren't approaching him that way. They're approaching them more like Eaton. Right. I don't know if they should. Petroia?

He may just throw him. Murphy made some progress over the weekend, though, right? What do you do? I will look. Petroia, no, I am not drafting Padroia. I'm not sure I would be drafting Padroia if he was healthy to start the year. All right, then. And then finally, Tom in Massachusetts.

Greetings, non-zero chance. I have an interesting question regarding my AL-only auction. Nine teams, traditional roto. Our draft is on the 31st of March, which is the third day of the MLB season. Boo. What would you pay most attention to that isn't just small sample noise?

On the third day of the season, when only two pitchers, at most have pitched for these teams? There's not a lot to take from that. Maybe like where a guy's hitting in a lineup or something. I was going to say batting order might. Yeah, badding order. That changes from day to day for a lot of these teams, too.

Yeah, but like if DJ LeMayhew is leading off for the Rockies or something? I read from the Rokies Beatrider, the MLB.com, Rokies Beatwriter, that the cargo signing probably means Blackman's leading off again. Okay, good, because I don't want to have to draft DJ LaMahue. All right, cool, guys. Thank you. Good show. Fun show.

Thank you all for your emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI. Looking forward to your podcast league entries. Get into our bracket challenge. And we got the crazimator tomorrow on Tuesdays show. See you.