Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/13: Busts! (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 13, 2019

Who are we avoiding in 2019? Chris and Adam have some Walker Buehler concerns (2:00) and Heath tells you about a Yankee who is being taken too early (5:52). Plus, is this the year that Zack Greinke finally gets old (7:25)? ... News and notes (12:45) with info on Pedro Strop, Aaron Hicks and even Tim Tebow! Then we talk about players we've been drafting a lot (18:00). Find out why Steven Souza, Jose Abreu and Trevor Bauer are on our squads ... More busts (28:40)! A couple of Brewers, a trendy OF, some aging hitters who are still productive and last year's Cy Young Winner. Then we've got your emails (44:40) and the Bustometer (53:00) to finish the show ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Busts, boosers, terrible players that we don't want on our fantasy teams. Something like that.

Welcome to fantasy baseball today, everybody. It is Wednesday. March 13th. Levy on Bell's on the Jetson. Becum's on the Browns. And we can't stop talking about that, but we will take a break for that for about an hour here and talk about some fantasy baseball. I'm Adam Mazur. He is Chris Towers. What's up, Chris? I would personally like to thank Levi-on-Bel for waiting until 1230 to make his decision announced because I really enjoyed staying up until 2 o'clock working last night. It was great. I didn't know about it until about 8.30, Chris was, you know. Well, that's because,

I'm in baseball mode. Some of us have jobs, Adam. Yeah, but it's a baseball job. I knew it was coming. I told my wife, I can't go to sleep right now. I got to stay up. Levyon. You're a young man.

You could stay up late. Heath. Middle-aged. He's middle-aged. Yeah, it was a fantastic couple of days. I'm in baseball mode, too, Adam. I've got tired all this football news. Yeah, so Scott's not on the show today.

If you want to read about Scott's busts, You can go to CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. It's got a big old column about it. You can get that stuff from Heath as well. I'm going to ask Chris and Heath for their busts. I'm going to tell you who I'm avoiding. A couple of high-end starting pitchers that I'm just not really not into. Remember to join our podcast league by sending us something creative to CBS2 Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com

and put podcast league in the subject line. Chris, I'm going to let you start off with, I don't know even know how to, like, favorite sleeper, favorite breakout. Do I say favorite bust? Yeah, I don't. Favorite bust seems weird because personally, I can't speak for Heath. I would like every player to live up there to their potential. Every single season. No. No. What fun is that? Because that would be really fun. No. That would be way more fun. How easy would fantasy baseball be? Come on. It would still be pretty tough. All right, give me your biggest bust.

I'm going to go with Walker Bueller, and it's not because I don't think he's talented because I think he's exceptionally talented. wanted, but we're taking him as the 14th overall pitcher right now. I think it might be 13th, actually, after the Severino injury. And for a guy who won has thrown, I think his max is 170-ish innings for his career. And, like, he has to be not just very good to justify this price. He has to, because he's only going to throw probably at most 100 innings in the regular season. And that's, like, a hard cap. And you look at some other guys around him, like Stephen Straussberg could throw 205 innings.

It's unlikely, but he could. So Walker Bueller doesn't just have to be good. He has to be sub 3ERA, sub 1.1 whip, 10 strikeouts per 9 good, because you're putting a cap on the number of innings that he can make just from the start. And then we know that this is a Dodgers team that if he sprains his ankle and he could pitch in his next start, they're going to take him and put him on the eye. So there's more risk than I think his price is baking in. And I just don't think we're properly acknowledging that he could also just take a step back. We've seen with Noah Cindergarde, we've seen with Steven Strasbourg, these guys who look like can't miss pitchers, they'll occasionally have a 3-4 ERA. You know, it's not out of the question, too.

Well, thanks for stealing one of the guys I was going to talk about. Anytime, Adam, I don't have my computer. It just crashed. So I had no idea who you were going to do. This is two days in a row. Like, get your technology in order, Chris. I just got the blue screen of death. Oh, that's the good.

So I might need a new computer entirely. Yeah, I might be flying blind here. I'm not drafting Walker Bueller because, you know, you don't have to. You can take other aces right in the same range, you know. I think we all would rather have Trevor Bauer. You could take Carlos Carrasco. I guess if you don't take Walker Bueller, are you then talking about missing out on a tier and having to go down to Strasbourg, Paxton, Corbin, that group.

I think he's in their team. Yeah, I think he's in that tier. Okay, well, but the drafters don't, you know? So, you know, the fantasy baseball draft. That's like one of the key tenets of fantasy baseball is being more correct about the tiers than the drafters. Right. So don't take it where it's going. But I'm just concerned about the innings jump because I was concerned about it with Severino last year.

And he obviously was Sayung candidate for the first half. Now might not ever pitch again. But then he fell apart. And Bueller, I mean, he went from five innings to 97 innings to 100. 76 in three years. Right. He has Tommy John surgery and it's a weird thing we do where if a pitcher is injury prone in the minors, it doesn't seem to ding them as much as it does in the majors.

If we looked at the last three years, I'm almost certain Noah Cindergarten, Stephen Straussberg have probably thrown a hundred more innings than Walker Bueller. But because they've missed time in the majors, we are more likely to account for that. as a negative for them. But, well, injuries in the minors, they count just as much. They're just minor concerns. Okay.

So Walker Bueller is someone that could be great, but has a lot of warning signs. And where you're taking him, you can take better pitchers there. Heath, who's a bust for you? Well, I think with all the recent developments in New York sports, it would only be fair if I chose a New York Yankee.

I mean, the Knicks are terrible, the Giants are terrible. Maybe the Yankees will be terrible, too. No. Actually, I'm just going to choose a Yankee that was already on my original bus list. It's Miguel Anduhar. More like Miguel and Don'tar.

He is the 10th third basement off the board on draft ahead of Travis Shaw, ahead of Will Myers, ahead of Justin Turner. I don't want him ahead of any of those guys. He's terrible defensively. The Yankees have like nine infielders once D.D. Gregorius comes back. And he's really, to me, just looks more like an accumulator, like a Jonathan's scope, maybe, with a better average.

I think he's fine as a. a late round corner infielder, maybe a low-in number one first baseman. I don't expect him to hit for as much power. I do think there could be some playing time concerns once everyone's healthy. I'm not going to draft him certainly at his ADP of 79th overall, just eight picks after Matt Carpenter. Yeah, I think both And DuHarr and Glaber Torres are going too early. At least Torres has both second base and shortstop eligibility, but Torres is like a fifth

round pick. So I think those Yankees getting a little bit too much love. Thank you for bringing that up, Heath. I appreciate it. I really thought Miguel and Don'thar would get me a Heath's on plate. Oh, yeah, that was really good. I'm not going to play it because you requested it, and that just seems wrong. But I will cue it up for next time.

Miguel and Don'thart is the best team name that you've ever come up with. And for me, the two players that I just, you know, I guess I'll call Walker Bueller a bus candidate. The other one makes me a little nervous because he proves us wrong every year. But, you know, I just think that this could be the year where Zach Granky starts to show some cracks. And look, I know the strikeout rate is up and down. He's not a huge strikeout pitcher. He's a huge innings guy. I'm just not feeling it with him. And again, I think that when you have these starting pitchers who are going early enough and you can kind of be picky, like I'll just, I'll just avoid him. I'll take James Paxson over him.

I'll take Strasbourg over Granky. But you agree, Paxton's a much bigger bust risk than Grinky. In terms of innings, yes. In terms of performance, I mean, I guess his track record would say so, but I just think he's a better pitcher. I just feel like Granky could become Felix Hernandez or, like, you know, Roy Halliday, just all of a sudden it was terrible for him.

The thing about a guy like Granky is, in the long run, you'll never go. go wrong betting against older players being bust. Eventually, he will be a bust unless he's the pitching version of David Ortiz and he just retired before anything goes wrong. But there's a reason why older players make good bust candidates. There's a reason why guys with limited track records make bus make for good bus candidates. It's because on both, you're talking about the different ends of the spectrum, but the end result is basically the same. And it's that history tells us that those players are less likely to reproduce what they've done in the past in the most recent year than they will be moving forward.

Right. I just, I think a pitcher that's 35 years old that's done what Grinky's done over the last five years is much safer than a pitcher that's 30 years old that's never topped 170 innings. So, so, no, I don't, I don't disagree. The question is, I think Paxton has definite bust. Wait a second. He's never topped 100 in what innings? I said 70. Oh, okay, okay, I'm sorry. He was 160 last year. I know he had one year where his minor leagues and majors combined. I was like 177 or yeah.

Yeah, 160 and a third last year. No, but, well, Granky, look, the home run rate went up last year. He gave up 28 home runs. Strikeouts went down. He was bad on the road. He had a 390 on the road and gave up 19 home runs there, so maybe he was helped by his ballpark. I don't know. And then I think the wins and losses are going to hurt him because he went from 17,

and seven two years ago to 15-11 last year, and Arizona went from a 93-win team to an 82-win team, and personally, I think they're terrible. So I don't know, I don't see Granky as a 15-game winner this year. All right. Yeah, I think he's probably in that 11-12 range, which is the career high for Paxon. And that's not going to make him a top 15 pitcher, in my opinion, Zach Rankie, because he was 11th in points, 14th in Roto with 15 wins last year. And if he goes down to 11 or 12, I think you're looking at more of a top 20 pitcher at best. Which is what his ADP is, right? 17th, but that's at best.

But that's me. I'm just avoiding him. That's all I'm saying. You know what's kind of interesting about Granky? He didn't have a single catcher last year, catch him who wasn't Jeff Mathis. Also true. I don't, like, I generally don't believe in like catcher ERA being a thing,

but when you talk about Zach Rankie, he's a guy who steals a lot of strikes, and Jeff Mathis is a great defensive. And Grinky's a weird dude. Like if it was going to bother, not in a bad way. He's a really smart guy, but he's a weird dude. No, I... He's going to bother someone at my mind.

I don't know. I do. But it's... I know. I did the research, Chris. How about that? His last... Granky without Jeff Mathis in 2017.

His last seven starts. He had a 331 ERA, eight walks, 37 strikeouts, and he actually was great. But his last two starts in eight innings, he gave up 10 runs. So I had to take a three starts. determine that based on those seven starts, there really was nothing there to not having Mathis. So I think we could move on. I think it's the kind of thing that could impact it on the margins, but he might be the guy who the margins matter more than most pitchers because he doesn't have great stuff.

He gets a lot of called strikes. It doesn't really get a lot of swinging strikes, but still gets strikeouts because he's so good at nibbling at the corners. if he loses 5, 10% of those maybe, I think things could start to go south real quick. Time for our email of the day. It is a podcast league entry. It is from Greg, quote, Eli is still on the team, Martin.

I'm a New York Giants fan. Please allow me into the league. Adam, you can relate. Find a place in your heart as well as a place in the league. Heath, is that enough to get in? No. I think all New York fans should continue to suffer for as long as possible. Well, that's why there's baseball season, Heath.

Wonderful, wonderful baseball season. I think the Yankees three-man rotation will work out really well. That'll be fine. News and notes. Pedro Strope is out at least a week with a hamstring strain. So let's talk about, oh, position battles. We're going to talk about position battles today as well, by the way. And not just bust, but also, guys, we've been drafting a lot.

We do have the bust o meter coming up at the end of the show. We have your emails. We have a fun show today. But Pedro Strope is going to presumably fill in for Brandon Morrow. And look, this could be nothing. But what should fantasy owners know right now is Strope has a hamstring strain? Probably ought to keep an eye on it because he, I don't think they've basically said they're not going to have a set closer. And this was the same thing they said when Morrow got hurt last year and then they did pretty much have a set closer.

But I think that Brad Brock would probably be next in line. Oh, I would guess it would be Steve Sisha. It could be Steve Sechick. It could be Carl Edwards. Csick's been really good the last couple of years. Got four saves for them last year. He was definitely an option last year. Yeah, Edward Cichick and Brock would all seem to be options.

But I know Scott, I don't know if he's changed his mind, because this was like months ago and we talked about it. But he sort of felt like Brayne of Marl's not going to get that job back. What do you guys think? pitchers are so volatile from year to year that when you're not talking about one of the four or five best ones, anybody could lose their job. If Pedro Strope has a bad week, right when Brandon Morrow comes back,

it could be Brandon Morrow's job. Tadro Stope could just not be healthy. But are they going to treat Brandon Morrow, who had a 147 R.A, a 108 whip last year, 22 saves and 24 chances, are they going to treat him like he's the closer and it's his job waiting for him, or do you think Pedro Strope is going to just take it and keep it? I think it depends on things we don't know yet.

If Pedro Strope is just awesome the first month of the season when Morrow's out and Morrow comes back and they aren't overly impressed when they see him start throwing bullpins, then I think it could be kind of like a Mark Mlanson type situation. But I don't believe it. Like Scott kind of seems to think it's more of a foregone conclusion. That's the way it's going to go. I think it's a little more up in the air than that. I think Strope is a fine $1 player, I guess if we want to talk about it that way in the 250 range,

and Morrow is a good guy to take in the reserve rounds. Danny Duffy, unlikely to be ready for opening day. Does anybody have any interest in Danny Duffy anymore? No. I had just a little bit before he got hurt. I'm not even sure he got drafted in the AL-only draft that we did yesterday. Yeah, I don't know. Aaron Hicks, 117th off the board, end of the 10th round.

He received a cortisone injection for his back. And again, I'll remind you, he's been on the DL every year of his career. Are we concerned? Yeah, he doesn't seem too concerned, but this back injury is lingering a little bit for Aaron Hicks. Or are we willing to move him down? I mean, he might be a bust candidate. Just for sure. If we're, you know, we put the injury prone tag on a lot of guys.

And, you know, he's been drafted in the same range as AJ Pollock. I don't see AJ Pollock as more of any. injury risk than Aaron Hicks. I think that price is okay because I do think there's upside in both Roto and head-to-and head because he's a power speed guy. But yeah, the fact that he's not healthy right now, given his injury history, that should be concerning. That's Aaron Hicks.

Tim Tebow was sent to the miners. Come on, Tim Tebow. Make the majors. We can only do Tim Tebow updates when Scott's on. Why? Because he has the spirited argument for Tim Tebow. He does? Oh, you know what, don't spoil it.

This has happened multiple times in the podcast when you've definitely been here. I don't remember anything. Seattle relief pitcher Hunter Strickland could make the trip to Japan. He has a sore lower back. Is he their closer? Hunter Strickland? I think he's their closer, but if I had already drafted Hunter Strickland, I would like for him to not make that trip. I don't think flights to Japan are the best thing for sorebacks.

Okay. And Malik Smith will not make the trip to Japan. He has an elbow injury. We're hoping he's ready for like real opening day on the 28th. And Houston's starting pitcher Francis Martez suspended 80 games for PED use. And so he's recovering from Tommy John. So shouldn't you really have to serve that suspension, you know, next year? They're going to be...

I thought you were going to say, shouldn't he be allowed to use something that helps him recover from Tommy John? I would assume that it would not be concurrent with the DL Stinn, and I believe he's on the DL. No, it is. I think he was concurrent. I think he's on the minor leagues. I thought he was on the major league roster when he was. I don't know.

I don't either. Either way, good for him. Good stuff. I got to tell you about... Get up that recovery, Francis. I got to tell you about Sportsline, because it's tournament time, and they have got great bracket help for you on Sportsline.

They have the optimal bracket, which finished in the top 5% of Csline. CBS sports brackets last year and had Villanova winning it all. They have the upset bracket, which called 12 of 18 first round upsets by double-digit seeds the past three years. Very, very good stuff. So go to Sportsline.com. There's also some of the fantasy stuff we've been talking about, like the Aces metric and the Who Do I Keep tool, which is really cool. On Sportsline, the promo code is Vegas.

$1 for your first month, $9.99 after that promo code Vegas on Sportsline. So, yes, today's theme guys is busts. We want to talk about players that we're not really feeling. But we've also done a lot of drafts lately. And AL only yesterday and only today. We'll talk about those on tomorrow's show. But just in general, have you started to figure out and realize who you keep drafting, who you end up drafting a lot and values that you think are really good?

Take it away, fellas. Who have you been drafting a lot? I'm going to give an answer just based on the guys. Because one thing I do, and I think you've made fun of this, I've got a spreadsheet of the guys that are actually on my teams we're actually playing out. It's really frustrating when we do 47 mock drafts, and then it comes to find out that I don't actually have Elohimenez

on any of the teams that we're playing out, and I don't get to benefit from that. So the guys I have on the teams that we're actually playing on Twitter, Michael Brantley, Stephen Sousa, Juan Soto, Blake Snell, John Gray, and that's it. Okay, talk to me. me about Stephen Sousa and why he's on a lot of your teams? He's basically free.

And before the Adam Jones acquisition, there was no question. I still don't really think there's any question about his playing time. I think Nick Ahmed or Wilmer Flores or Gerard Dyson, those guys are likely to lose time to Adam Jones. I don't think Adam Jones is probably better than Stephen Sousa right now. But he's shown us in the past when he's healthy. he's kind of like a little lesser version of Domingo Santana. He hits the ball very hard, has good power, and has double-digit stolen base potential. And you can get him as late as you want him.

And you should. He should be a late-round pick. I mean, he's a deeper league. You've got to have at least five, you got to roster five outfielders if you're, if you have. His 20, yes, I agree. But his 2017 seasons, 30 homers and 16 steals, he only hit 239. but if he does that, that's probably a top 100 hitter. He's never come close to that.

That's what he did in 2017. But that's the only time he's done that. He's got a lousy career. Well, 2015, he played 110 games, and it's 16 homers and stole 12 bases. He slugged 399. Okay, you're right. You're right. He's going to have bad batting average, most likely.

But there's power speed there. Yes. Yeah. Okay. I'm honestly not disagreeing with it. It's a late pick. And he's a clean-up hitter, most likely. So, yeah, a lot of those names are kind of high-end.

Juan Soto, you said, do you not concern yourself with the dreaded sophomore slump? I don't really ever even think about the dreaded sophomore slump. I think you think about it enough for both of us, and I like you keeping it in the back of my head, but I don't ever really consider it. I think he's a future star. There were too many ground balls last year, but it was more ground balls than he had in the minor leagues, and he's young enough. and talented enough that I don't think he's just going to stay a high ground ball guy. Okay, Chris. How about you?

Who are some guys you're taking a lot? Well, I don't have a spreadsheet like Heath because I'm not a nerd. It's so ironic, you saying that. Generally speaking, Charlie Blackman ends up on a ton of my teams. I think he's a great value when you get, especially if you're picking early in the first round, you get to him. I think that's a steal. Trevor Bauer, I'm shocked that I've talked to myself. into Trevor Bauer as probably my favorite of the ace pitchers to draft because I think he's

going a little under where I think he should be. And I'm not 100% sure why. He became a significantly different pitcher last season. He was on pace for 210 innings before a, did he get hit by a comeback or do you just have a stress fracture? Either way, it's not exactly the kind of injury that we should be concerned about. Chris Davis with a K. I've ended up with him a lot. I'm not worried about having to deal with the lack of flexibility because he's so good that it doesn't really matter. And then usually,

I try to get one of J.T. Romoto or Gary Sanchez. Yeah. That's... The catcher's so bad. Man, it's so bad. And we did an AL-only draft yesterday where you have to roster two catchers. It's so gross.

That's just... Why would anybody play in a league like that? It's offensive. It's such... Oh, ridiculous. So, okay, let's say I'm trying to... I get mad at Scott every time he schedules it. It's ridiculous.

Like, just make it one catcher. Nobody... There's not one person in the world that plays in an AL-only two-catcher league. And if you do... Oh, there are definitely people who do. Yeah, I do. We have one that we play out. And there are 12 of us.

They don't exist. You're not in it. There are dozens of us, Adam. So, when do you take Rayamuto and Sanchez? usually fourth round I think that's generally and it's usually like if Rao Muto falls a little bit

I'll take him if Rao Muto doesn't fall I try to take Gary Sanchez with my nest pics after Rao Muto goes I just think they're the two catchers who can give you a legitimate edge at the position there are other good catchers four of them maybe but I think the chances of a Yosmani Grandal, a Wilson Ramos really being, like let's say giving you first base production, which I think Raumuto and Sanchez can, I think it's a lot lower chance of anyone else actually doing that for you.

All right, the guys that I find myself drafting a lot, Jose Abraeu, I keep finding myself taking him, because I think he sort of represents a point at first base where, you know, You've missed out. Obviously, you didn't take Freeman or Goldschmidt at that point, but you don't want to necessarily take Matt Olson. You don't want to have to rely on, say, the sleepers that we talked about earlier this week or the breakouts, whatever it was. Jake Bowers and Pete Alonzo as your starter. I mean, they'd be fine on your team. But you get to the point where, hey, I don't want to have to take Gallo, Encarnacion Moncee as my starter. So Jose Abrayu is there. and I end up taking him.

He's going 71st overall on average. D. Gordon is sort of a centerpiece of my Roto teams. I believe in him probably more than anybody else. So, you know, believe in D. Gordon. You took him early yesterday. A.L. only, right? Yeah. I think I took, what, the fourth round?

Like, round 40th overall. I thought it was a third, but it may have been the fourth. I had the second to last pick of the third round, so that would have been picked 29. So, yeah, I took him either 29th or 32nd overall. But again, that's AL only. U. Darvish, I think he's just going to bounce back. I'm basically willing to throw out last year. I don't know that he's like an amazing pitcher anymore,

but I think if U Darvish is right, he's certainly a top five round pick, a top 60 player, and you can get him around 10, around round 10 or so. Stephen Piscotti in a deeper league, if I need a third outfielder or a fourth outfielder on waiting, perfectly fine, taking Stephen Piscotti. He seems to be going later than I thought he would. Tyler Skaggs, as we all know.

Trevor May. I like Trevor May, guys. Do you think Trevor May is going to end up as the twins closer? I'm just afraid Trevor may be a middle reliever. If he is a middle reliever, he might still give you good enough ratios to keep him in your lineup. But I think he's so clearly the best pitcher in that bullpen. And they actually are going to be competing this year. They're going to be in good games, close games.

They're going to have a lot of saves. This looks like a 500 or better ball club. They can't mess around with Blake Parker in the back end there. So Trevor May. And, yeah, go ahead. Why are we treating Blake Parker like he had this abysmal 2017? His ERA was like a tenth of a run higher than Trevor Mays, I think. I thought he was bad last year, Blake Parker.

Am I wrong? He had a 326 ERA. He had more than a strikeout per inning. He did have a 1.236 whip, which is, high but not terrible, but I hadn't really even looked at him up until a couple of days ago because we just kind of dismissed him.

I still haven't ranked one spot ahead of Trevor May. And he was pretty good last year. He wasn't 2017 good. Trevor May, 185 ERA, sub one whip in 23 relief appearances, five walks, 36 strikeouts, and 24 and a third. He's just, if he does that, then he's elite. Sure.

Not say he's going to do it again, but if he does. Well, yeah, it's 25 innings. Like, that's the thing is that it's... Yeah, okay. Let play Parker do that for 25 innings. He can't. Well, he kind of did. I'm 100% hurt and certain he has done that for a 25 innings.

He was great in 2017. So maybe take them both with your last two picks or something like that. And it does sound like there's a chance. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. I always like remembering that the twins manager is Rocco Balletley, is going to. to go with a committee at closer. There is a chance of that.

There may not be a closer. I don't buy it. They'll be a closer. I know Rocco Baldelli. Believe me. There'll be a closer. Former Ray. They've never done anything like that before.

You know my favorite last pick of the draft is Greg Bird. It's got to be Greg Bird. Because if he wins that job, it's going to make a lot of sense. All right. We're going to take a quick break. I mean, he's probably going to be terrible again. No, he won't be. No.

Everything you just said there was completely wrong. But we will get to hear more about Heath's bus, Chris Busts, right after this. Heath, give me some more busts for 2019. This one might make people hate me, and it kind of makes me hate myself. But I was going through this exercise because my busts are going to be on the site this week, and I was looking at the consensus rankings. And Yassiel Pueig has a consensus ranking of number 63 overall. I'm very excited about what Pueg could be in Cincinnati.

But number 63 overall is basically Yassiel Pueig's career year so far. I would like to take him in the eighth, ninth round, and say, I think he could have a career year. I do not want to take him at the start of the sixth round into the fifth round and just pay for his career year. So I'll go with Yassie L. Puig at his current ranking. Yeah. All right. Interesting. Now, that doesn't jive with ADP, I don't believe.

I think he's closer to the 80s or 90s. When would you take Yassil Puyig? I would like to take him in the eighth round. So around Pick 100, I don't believe I'm going to have any chance to get him there. Well, let me see. Wait, I just want to... Looking at his, over the last 30 days on NFBC,

he is the 20th outfielder off the board at pick 67. I think I want to make fun of you, but I'm not sure. The eighth round ends at pick 96. So, I think you've said a round pick 100. Right, but that's round 9. That's round 9. Okay, so I would like to take him in round 9. There you go.

Chris. Regardless, I'm not taking him at 63 or 67. More busts from Chris. I apparently don't like the Brewers because I have Josh Hader and Hazers Aguilar. I'll talk about Josh Hater first. We're kind of, he's still going around 100, 110th overall, and that's expected. him to be the guy he was the first two months, I think, when he had a 109 ERA through 33 innings, was kind of giving you, like, decent starting pitcher strikeout numbers.

They didn't use him like that the whole season. They pretty much stopped using him like that after the first two months of the season, and that's probably because it's really tough to keep going out there multiple times a week throwing two innings. And so over his last 36 games from June 2nd to the end of the season, he threw 48 and a third innings, 77 strikeouts, which is awesome. But the ERA was 335 and, you know, the whip wasn't elite. And I just think if we're drafting a IRA that we don't think is going to get saves in that range,

we are expecting him to be a 1-5-16-ERA guy with 100. and 30 strikeouts. He may be that, but most of last season, he wasn't. So I just, I don't like that value for a guy that should be very good, but may not stand out as much as, as we think. Okay. That's Josh Hater. How about Hesu Sagular? I just, we're drafting here. I think his ADP's like 76th overall or something. That is way too rich for a half season guy, basically, because after the All-Star break last season, he was okay, but he wasn't a top 100 hitter. That's putting a lot of stock into the really good half season where we've seen guys like Justin Smoke. We've seen guys like Yonder Alonzo have a similar one good season, one good half season,

and then kind of turn back to being a fine hitter. But I don't think Hazer Zagelar is going to be a standout at first base. shocked that he's still going in the 78 overall range. Yeah, and that's why I like to take Jose Ibrahim, because the next first baseman off the board is Jesus Aguilar. Actually, it's Daniel Murphy, who also would be a nice pick in that range, but Murphy will not start the season with first ace eligibility. Okay, so a couple brewers for Chris.

Heath has given us Yassil Pueig. Chris gave us Hater and Aguilar. Heath, you're up again. Yeah, I'm going to go with Cole Hamels, and I think it's really interesting to look at his last two years compared to the last two years for Jake Arieta and John Lester. And they are very, very similar with the main difference being that Hamels was good for his last two months. And it coincide with a trade to a new team. And so we've just decided that he's a good again after two bad years. But he's had a FIP of 462 and 449 over the last two years. And I know

we're going to say, well, that's because he got away from Texas. He was terrible for the Rangers. In 2016, he had a 3-3-2 ERA for the Rangers. He could pitch for the Rangers in 2016. He can't anymore. I don't know why that happened, but I think he's just not as good as it used to be. What's that? That was two years ago.

That was three seasons ago. Yeah, he was better then. But also that year, like, he had a one-three-one whip. And then the strike, look, I don't know what to make of it, but it's pretty, the home road split. are pretty clear. Like, he was terrible in Texas in 2018. He went to the Cubs, and he was great.

And I guess... But he was awful in 2017. Uh, yes. He was really bad, and that was strange. And he was a little lucky in 2016. So, I guess the question is, like, is he really a bust at 141st overall? Cole Hamels. I think he is, considering he's 35 years old, he's pitched, according to his peripherals

the last two years, like a pitcher you wouldn't take until the reserve rounds. and we're treating Jake Arietta and John Lester like those peripherals are real and dropping them out of the top 200, but because Hamill's had a good last two months, we're going to draft him at one in the 12th round. Okay, fair enough. But also, I think, you know, a lot more strikeouts last year than Arenda and Lester, right? Yes, and a lot less the year before. That's the strangest thing, like 6.4 strikeouts in 2017. That is, depends how much you make of that, because that is a huge outlier.

in his career. Okay. Sorry, I guess I'm sticking up for Scott. I know Scott likes Cole Hamils. Heath, how about another bust? Yeah, one more bust. I will go with Josh Donaldson. I think that his consensus ranking now is like 85 overall,

so the end of the seventh round, start of the eighth round. And listen, I do think that there is upside and bounce back potential. I wish he was on an American League team so he didn't have to play in the field every time that he played. I'm afraid the Braves are going to be a little cautious with them

and I'm a little bit afraid by how his contact percentage has decreased over the last two years. His line drive percentage has almost disappeared over the last two years. He did have a really good stretch of power production when he came back from injury in 2017. I'm not willing to bet a late seventh, early eighth round pick that that was the real Josh Donaldson

and that he stays healthy all year this year at his age with his injury the last two years. So you could just take Travis Shaw in that range? I would much rather have Travis Shaw. Would you rather have Rafael Devers or Josh Donaldson? I think I still have Donaldson ranked higher right now. Devers is still, there's still been some stuff coming out of Boston's spring training about how Devers is still kind of struggling with his approach. I'm excited about Devers, and I think he has upside,

but everyone else is excited about damage. Yeah, it is true. I just want to throw a name out while we're on the subject of Josh Donaldson. I just have not taken him in one league. And maybe that's foolish because every year he hits like 35 home runs and drives in 100. But Edwin and Carnacio, and I feel like it's sort of a similar story with Donaldson. It's like we are seeing things get worse. And the production's still there, so there's something enticing.

And he goes pretty late. Edwin and Carnacios is going in the 10th round, 113. overall, but I cannot bring myself to take him. How do you feel about Encarnazion? I'm completely with you. I don't hate the value there because I think there is a chance he returns a positive value on that pick, but he's in a bad park. He's a likely trade candidate. It's possible he gets traded to either a bad park or even it's a long shot, but he could get traded to the National League and then you have to deal with changing leagues, which is always difficult. There's just a lot of uncertainty around Edwin and Carnacion and I don't know if I want, I don't

know if the upside's worth it there when you can take guys who probably have, you know, a similar floor. Yeah, I don't, I think I've only drafted him once. I drafted him yesterday in a league I was helping somebody with in an AL only. He's the 13th first baseman off the board over the last month that pick one. 30, the first baseman that are going right after him, Ian Desmond, Miguel Cabrera, Eric Hosmer, Luke Voight, Yulee, Yulee, I'm not any more excited about those guys. So I don't hate the value, but I don't disagree with any of the concerns you guys have.

Well, honestly, 1.30 to me is a big difference from 113, and I would probably take incarnacio at 1.30. I don't know. I mean, that's two more rounds. I think that's fair to say. Yeah, because you're right, because after that... I think it's a good point about all these busts. There's a place where they could become a value. I guess the other part of that is like, what if you didn't have a first basement and you took Encarnacion at 1.30 ahead of Cabrera, Voigt, all these other guys that you said, you know, that's not bad. But if you already did have a first basement, does that what Encarnacion makes sense as your utility or as your DH at 130th overall? And quite frankly, I think he does.

even if you already have a first base, but I think it's a fine pick there. I mean, you should be trying to get production. And, you know, position matters to a certain extent. You want to be able to make sure that you're not stuck with a bad player because you don't have any flexibility. But you are looking for home runs, RBI, you know, especially in a Roto League. But even in head-to-head, you're just looking for raw production. And at some point where it comes from is less important than what you're getting. And so I'm fine with him as a DH if I can get him at the right price.

Chris, give me another buster too. We'll finish with this. We're going to have to put position battles off until tomorrow. I did want to mention, though, that in case you're drafting today, I was reading Cleveland.com yesterday for football news, and I stumbled upon their early prediction of the 25-man roster. And they actually have, it's just a guess, they actually have Greg Allen on the bench with Hanley Ramirez as a starter. So just for all of you, Roto people, banking on Greg Allen as your starter to get some steals. Just keep that in mind.

But we'll talk about position battles tomorrow. Let's finish off the bus. Actually going to break out the Bustometer at the end of the show. But Chris, give me one or two more names. Love the Bustometer. Love the breakout O meter. Of course. Very finely calibrated tools.

Jacob de Grom. He is the number 12 overall pick in ADP right now. he is the number three starting pitcher right now. I don't think there's basically any chance of him being bad, but you look at the last three years, 304 ERA, 353 ERA, 1.70. Which one are we drafting him as a result of at third overall? Clearly, it's the 170, and most of the peripherals back it up. 199 FIP, Sierra and X FIP, not quite as bullish, but still, two, two,

278, 260, so they believe he will be a very, they believe he was a very good pitcher. It's also he was very lucky last season. He is unlikely to keep all of the gains he made. He jumped from a 28.9% striker rate to a 32.2, cut his walk rate by like 25%. He's going to be good, but you will usually, like I said, with old players, you will usually not go wrong, betting against a guy coming off a career season to regress. And in this instance, a year ago we were drafting him as what the 12th, 15th starting pitcher probably?

I think it's a lot more likely he ends up there than he ends up third. You're not going to lose a ton of value, but there were reasons why we weren't drafting him as a top five starting pitcher before last season. Well, yeah, I think it's because DeGrom had a 353 ERA in 2017. And he's not going to be that bad because his five seasons, No, 269, 254, 304, 353-170. So the last two seasons are outliers. I think he's a two-something.

I think he's a high two-er-a guy. And it's really the strikeout rate, 11.2 last year, 10.7 the year before. So he was someone that, and I forget. Okay, so he was someone that in 2017, strikeout rate went way up, but the home runs went way up. And I know there was a pitcher that fits that profile this year that I wanted to talk about as he could be this... Oh, it's Paxton.

That's exactly who it was. So, you know, I kind of going on a tangent here. But I think DeGrom, I haven't taken him, Chris. You're right. I think, like, I could just wait around and take Trevor Bauer. I'm totally with you there. Right. Trevor Bauer was not exactly as good as him, but he wasn't far off last season.

Right. I think DeGrom is... is going to be great, and I think you do too, but I think we're saying, hey, take a second hitter. Take a hitter in round two and wait until round three and take somebody like Trevor Bauer, maybe Blake Snell, something like that. But yes, that combination for DeGrom in 2017, K-R-8 went way up to a career high 10.7, but he just gave up a lot of home runs and the ERA was too high. I think that's what happened to Paxton last year. So I'm hoping that Paxton can break out and have a de Grom-like season won't be as good. That's a tangent.

I'm not trolling. I know that's hard to believe, but Heath has been doing most of the trolling on today's podcast. I do worry James Paxton could be a bust. It's a bad park fit. Totally fair. I love the talent, but I just, I think things could go south for him. That's my concern. I can't really argue against that.

I mean, I think he's got... Look, for those of you who have been listening to this podcast for years, the first time I saw James Paxton pitch, it must have been like five years ago, whatever. I said, I am in love with James. I said, I fell in love last night, and it was with James Paxton. So I've always loved James Paxton.

It has nothing to do with his team now. I think he's a great pitcher that just needs to put it together for a full season, and I think this could be the year. I don't know why we're talking about him. I'm sorry about that He's a bust Yeah, because I said he must be a bust Thank you for tying it all in

So Yasio Pueig, too early At 63rd overall Cole Hamels Heath is concerned about Josh Donaldson In the 70s or 80s That's too early

We've talked about Egman and Cardassio And we like him closer to 130 rather than 110 Hesu's Aguilar He's going too early Josh Hayter Round 100th overall

That's too early Jacob de Grom Early second round Late first round and possibly James Paxton. Okay, good stuff. Thank you guys. Those are some busts.

There are more on the website, CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. Let's do some emails. Fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Nick in Cleveland. I am a diehard Indians fan. Every time Yandi Diaz got to the plate, I was excited about the potential to hit 315

with a good OBP, good runs, and RBIs. Now that Yandi Diaz is in Tampa, Does he have any appeal as a breakout in any format with possible consistent plate appearances? Finally. That's the key is the consistent plate appearances. The Rays have way too many guys. I think that in theory this is a better place for him to find playing time because there's no Francisco Lendor and Jose Ramirez. But the Indians actually have Jason Kipnis at second base, and that might have been something that was easier.

So I do think he has potential as a source of batting average in Roto or maybe even as just a good option in points. And he could be eligible at a lot of different positions, but I don't feel really confident in his consistent playing time. There is latent power, I think, in the profile that hasn't played up in games yet. But a lot of the batted ball data suggests that he should hit the ball better than he has, certainly, in his major league career. and the Rays are a team that I would bet on getting the most out of a player like Diaz. There's a reason they went out and got him. He's a very Tampa Bay Rays player. They gave up a starter to get him.

They did give up a star or a starter? Well, you can't spell starter without star, Chris. Did Yonnie Diaz not go in our AL-only draft? That can't be. I just don't think he's expected to play every day. I think he should go, though. I think he should be taken it in A.L. Probably.

That's an oversight. 21, 23 round. 22 round. No, 23. 23 round. A.L. only draft. Yeah, he should have gone. He's, okay, if you're drafting on CBS, Yandi Diaz, he might just be sort of low in the rankings.

You might have to search for him. Not search for him, but keep him in the back of your mind. But you don't want to draft him in a mixed league. Right. A.L. only league are like a super deep. You have a 15 teamer, I think you could, in a reserve round. All right. Andrew in Cincinnati.

I play in a 5-by-5 league that replaces wins with quality starts. I can probably find the answer by Googling it, but I want to hear your guys take on how openers could affect the quality start category. If Charlie Morton enters the game in the second inning up 1-0, pitches six full innings and the game ends and the raise win 1-0, does he get a win? Does he get a quality start? Does the opener get the win? Basically, it's a good question.

Martin would get the win, but not the quality starts. But the thing to remember is the kind of pitcher who is going to get an opener is typically going to be the kind of pitcher who's not going to throw a lot of quality starts. Ryan Yarbrough last year is a good example of a pitcher who was pretty good but just didn't get the fantasy points that you would have expected because of this. But Morton's not going to have an opener. No. Nassnell is not going to have an opener and neither Snell. They're going to figure out the rest. You know, Yanni Trino's could figure into the rotation.

He could have an opener. the A's are another team that have talked about an opener, the Yankees are another team that have talked about an opener, but again, the type of guys who are going to have an opener, maybe with the Yankees, we might want to see Jonathan Loisaga or Domingo Haman get a chance, but in all likelihood, they're not going to be super fantasy relevant. And that's true of everyone in the athletics rotation besides Jesus Lazzardo. So I don't think it's a big,

concern. Right. Yeah. I think, I'm not sure if you said this. I think you said it without saying it,

but the guys who are going to have openers, most likely, are not going to be fantasy relevant in general, right? Well, they're going to be a red quote.

As, you said that, as, uh, ARPS? Can I call them ARPS? Yeah, yeah,

RepARps. Okay, I'm sorry I wasn't listening, Chris, because I was trying to cue something up because our next email is from Corey, and this email is about,

oh, damn it. I didn't queue it up right. It's about you say Kikuchi. Kukichi. What the hell is his last name? Kikuchi. You say Kukichi.

Kikuchi. You say Kukichi. Yeah, you say Kikuchi. I only hear what I want to. And I read Kikuchi, but it's Kikuchi. Kikuchi. You don't listen hard. It's true.

Don't pay attention. What can we expect from you say Kikuchi? That is the question from Kori. In a best case scenario, a low three's ERS. a decent strike-ar rate in about 150 to 160 innings. That's probably the ceiling, which is fine. That's the ceiling for a lot of pitchers these days. It's not that different from Kentomaieta ceiling.

It's probably a little higher. I think the thing that we don't know yet is how transparent the Mariners are going to be. Because what they've said is once every five or six starts, he's going to throw one inning, basically be an opener. And then he'll be on a normal workload. the time. As long as they are transparent with when those times are going to be, and I would expect they are, but it needs to be more than one or two days in advance, then I think he's still going to be very valuable where he's being drafted. As long as you know the four or five weeks

this year that you can't start him, I think it'll be fine. That's you say Kikuchi. Next email is also from Corey. He wants to know more about Eduardo Rodriguez, and could Eduardo Rodriguez be a breakout this year? Yes. He has a lot of helium. He hasn't really moved up in drafts though, has he? I think just in industry drafts. He is very popular in the industry. He's about 150th overall in ADP.

Which is pretty, that's a lot higher than I have him. Yeah, but it's lower than Nick Povetta, and he was better than Povetta last year, and the peripherals weren't that different. He's a good strikeout pitcher. He's shown improved control. the fly balls and the home runs are always going to be an issue for him. But if he does develop that slider, the way that we've seen some reports at a spring at least, I think there's a chance that he takes a leap. And again, he's another guy who the injuries have just always held him back.

I don't know that he's ever reached 150 innings in a season. He has not. Last year, I think. 137 and a third is the career high for Eduardo Rodriguez, and it's not just injuries, it's inefficiency. He made 23 starts last year and had a good year, 382 ERA and 10, like 10 strikeouts per 9, 10.1. And he made seven quality starts out of 23. He just throws so many pitches.

So that's the first thing that needs to improve for him. He has to go deeper into games because if you play in a quality starts league, you know, Eduardo Rodriguez could be so much worse than what you would expect from a pitcher with his talent. But yeah, there's potential there getting better, you know. I would just be afraid with all the fly balls that he gives up If he gets in the strike zone more and more efficient With that home park he may give up a lot more runs Yeah, it's a question of balancing

You know can he start inducing weak contact And I think that's what the development of I think it's been called a cutter It's been called a slider But if that pitch can become something that he can rely on He can start working in the zone a little more Especially to right-handed hitters You know, busting them inside

I think there's a chance that you know, he can solve that issue. Let's rank three pitchers. Kikuchi, Hamels, Eduardo Rodriguez. Kikuchi Rodriguez Hamels. I think I still have Hamels ahead of Rodriguez, but I should probably change that.

See, I'm helping you with your rankings. All right, here's an email from Ben. Who are some RPs that would have an SP designation and give good ratios? Oh, man. We get this question a lot. It's really tough. and you'd think we'd have an answer by now.

Yeah, you should. Okay. I mean, does Josh Hader have SP? No, why would he? No. Did not start. That was terrible. It was terrible.

Sergio Romo. If he has as good of a season as he did last year, he could be. Seth Lugo. I like Fernando Romero in the twins' bullpen. I think he could be a pretty good pitcher out of the bullpen. Alex Reyes, sure. Maybe Ross Tripling. It definitely sounds like Alex Reyes is going to be

in the bullpen to start the season, and it wouldn't surprise me if he's there the entire year. Ready for the bustometer? Yes, busometer. There you go. We got about three or four minutes here. So, what do you think

that these guys could be just total bus? Ronald Ocuna. Four. Five, if he's taken in the first four picks of the draft. Two. Paul Goldschmidt. Two. Two. He's got a little bit of Encarnacion. Like

The strikeout rate went up last year and that could be a sign of a declining skill set having to cheat a little more to catch up. Doesn't run now. Didn't run last year. He was awesome. He's in a great lineup. Like basically it was what, a bad month and a half

and then he was Paul Goldschmidt again. Maybe not as many steals, but he might still steal eight bases. He's not going to be nothing there, I think. Javier Baez. Nine. Seven point five. When would you be comfortable taking Javier Baez? Late third, early fourth?

Yeah, like 40th. In Roto and later in points. Okay, how about Tommy Pham? Three, he's going early enough that it could hurt you, but late enough that the risk is minimized. at least a little bit. I have no idea what Tommy Fam's ADP is. I think it's like in the 50-60 range.

I think it's... I was going to say 70. I'll say four. Four, okay. Jonathan VR, who's a top 100 player right now in ADP. I mean... Seven, eight, nine, ten? Yeah, I'll put it a five.

He has been a bust once in the last two seasons and has been a value once in the last two seasons. So just split the difference. Yeah, his ADP is 79 over the last month. That's That's You want to be a six That's VR

Yeah How about Craig Kimbril Still not in camp He's not He's not easy He's not easy He's not easy

He's going to be a Closer Well yeah But does missing The entire Off season Basically Add risk

He could And he was Terrible He was terrible He was terrible In the playoffs Last year And

Doesn't You know I don't know Are there Signs That he's Slowing down Yeah

Yeah His His skill set Has declined You got to up it. For sure. It cannot be a one, Chris. You got to up it.

This is the best closer since Mariano Rivera. It's got to be a least one and a half. And like the declined skill set has still left him as like a consensus top three or five closer every year. His ADP's not so high. I think I'm good with one. You're not going to bully me, Adam. I had the courage of my convictions. I tried.

I'm bigger than you. Two. That's it. Okay, I'll throw one more out there. How about... How about... Kyle Hendricks. There we go.

Kyle Hendricks. Does he have... 130. Nobody's excited about Kyle Hendricks anymore. I think we've all just kind of accepted that he is what he is, and what he is is is pretty good. It's not a bad pitcher to have around. He's a 10.

It's strikeout rate has declined like every year. He doesn't really need strikeouts. Like, he still strikes out more guys than Miles Michaelis, right? Yes, but it keeps going down. From 8.4 to 8.1 to 7.9 to 7.4. Oh, Michaelis. Michaelis is a 15 on the Bustodemeter. He's a zero.

Okay, five. He's awesome. All right. Then we'll end on that. He's made. He'll be better than James Paxton this year. Bet, wager made. We will start tomorrow's show with that wager.

Do we do it? A shaved head wager? Yes. No. We are out of here, everybody. Thank you for listening to our buses podcast. Tomorrow we'll talk about the player that we love in 2019. We want to thank you for listening,

and we'll see you on Thursday on Fantasy Baseball today.