Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/13 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Rankings Changes, Sample Sizes, Crazy Talk

Episode Date: March 13, 2018

Which players are rising up the rankings? Heath and Scott give their risers (1:50) including a couple of CHC hitters and Ronald Acuna. Then they tell you who they are downgrading (10:40) which includes a bullpen update and some Miguel Sano concerns ... We look at some small sample sizes from last season and decide if they mean anything. Carlos Correa, George Springer and Corey Seager (25:50) crushed it before suffering injuries and Francisco Lindor (30:56) was having a somewhat disappointing season before his final 40 games ... Debating W vs. QS again (39:00) with a new perspective, enjoying some Team Name Tuesday (41:30) and unleashing the Crazyometer (43:05). Will Billy Hamilton hit well? Can Miggy be an MVP candidate? Can Aaron Judge stay healthy and somehow hit fewer than 35 HRs? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Tuesday's show, everybody. Hope you joined our Bracket Challenge. You still have time. You can follow us on Twitter. We've been tweeting all about it. At Adam Azer, A-I-Z-E-R, at CBS Scott White, at Heathcoming Senior, at Heathcoming's S-R. This is fantasy baseball today. And we are going to talk about some risers and fallers.

We're going to read some haikus. We are going to talk about small sample sizes and get the crazimometer out and read your emails. Scott and Heath, how we doing? Fantastic. Really? Pretty good. This is one of the best weeks of the year. Really, it is.

I mean, what a fun football news. First of all, if you missed our fantasy football today podcast yesterday, we talked to Nathan Zagura, who used to be a colleague of ours and is now covering the Cleveland Browns, so obviously that's relevant. And then Wednesday or Thursday, we'll do another one. We'll talk about Sammy Watkins and all this stuff for you fantasy football fans. But right now, spring training is heating up. March Madness is heating up. Yeah.

And we're going to have a March Madness podcast. Check out our Sportsline DFS podcast for, first of all, DFS NBA advice, DFS PGA advice, and now March Madness advice. But let's get into the baseball show. Two big risers, two big fallers for Scott and for Heath. Since Heath is the happy-go-lucky man, we'll start with him. Who are your big risers? You know, the time frame wasn't specific last week, throughout spring training, whatever, but somebody you're higher on now than you were previously.

Go for it, Heath. Well, the first of these, it wouldn't really matter what time frame you assign because every time I update my rankings, I just move him up a little bit more because I can't seem to rank him high enough. And it's Ronald Ocuna. Listen, there is a chance that he starts the year in the minor leagues and doesn't get up until two weeks into the season and then maybe even struggles just a little bit. But the upside is enormous. And the way I look at it, like, I'd already said that in rotissory leagues, I really want to focus more on upside because I don't have any interest in being in sixth place. in July. So that makes him a no brainer in that format.

But even in points leagues, outfield depth is so prevalent on the waiver wire that I've moved him up quite a bit there as well. So Acuna is now a top 30 outfielder for me in both formats. Right. And I also think that he kind of represents a point in the outfield ADP or maybe rankings that doesn't seem so exciting. And he is the exciting guy there. like Eddie Rosario

What's that? Yeah, absolutely. Adam Jones. Yeah. Ian Hap is a guy that's below him that I would take over him, but that's about it. The thing is, certainly when you get to the point where well, let's say Byron Buxton.

I mean, the main thing you're drafting Byron Buxton for is stolen bases, right? And that's in like round six, Ever Rodo League, something like that. I mean, Ronald de Kuhni is going to steal 30 bases this year. Unless he just hits so poorly his first couple, you know, his first three or four weeks up that they send it back to the minor. He's going to steal 30 bases.

Like, he's worth drafting in round 10 or whatever just for that. Forget all the hitting potential. That's just gravy. Like, the steals make him worth it. Who's got more power, Bucks than a Rekunia? I'm going to assume this year, Buxton does, but long term I think Acuna does. Yeah, yeah. He gets like a 70 grade from baseball America for power, which is really high.

But yeah, he's 20 years old, so I'm not counting on 20 homers from him, especially since, you know, probably going to miss a couple weeks at the start of the season. But it wouldn't surprise me if he hit 25 either, you know. Okay. and the other riser Heath Cummings. It's Kyle Schwabber. I've come around a little bit on not completely dismissing the upside that still exists with Kyle Schwerber. And one of the big things for me, you don't lose that much weight by accident.

And you don't lose it by kind of trying. He's obviously put a ton of effort in over the offseason to reshape his body. I felt like last year he didn't quite put enough effort in in terms of improving his plate. but discipline. So I'm hopeful this transfers over to his game as well. He could be the Cubs third best hitter. He might be fourth or fifth, but still, I've moved him up quite a bit. Okay. Kyle Schwerber had an 894 OPS after the All-Star break, but you look at the week-by-week breakdown, not so great because he didn't play every day. So let's just hope he plays enough. He struggled against lefties, batted 171 against lefties. But after the All-Star break in

894 OPS, still young and we still know what he can do. Scott, you're a risers. Give me, me a couple of risers here. Paul riser, as you said, off the end. Yeah, my Paul, my Paul risers. I'm going to start with Mike Clevenger, who isn't necessarily a riser for me personally. I was always ranking him as if he would have one of those rotation spots for the Indians, but now that it's been confirmed that he will, because Danny Salazar hasn't been able to get off the ground because of a shoulder injury, I'm finding it's a lot harder to get Clevenger at the discount I've come to expect because it seems like everybody's on board with a guy who had an elite K-per-9 and elite swinging strike rate last year, also a 312 BRA.

He was really the Indians third best pitcher ahead of even Bauer, and now we're starting to see him get drafted in the same range. I would expect him to keep the job all year. So this is like your opinion of Klevenger hasn't changed, but he's a riser because of how you put your rankings together by smelling. Well, I mean, he's just a riser in terms of... Well, but he's not risen. His stock is up.

His stock is clearly up. He's an industry riser. He's not necessarily a Scott riser because Scott was the high guy on Clothes. Well, he has to be a Scott riser, though, because Scott's rankings factor in ADP, and so he could have ranked him lower before because he could have gotten him later, and now he has to move him up. All right, well, let's take a look at the rankings then, and let's see where you might. Because I am going to have to do another rankings audit here in the near future.

Things are changing so. fast. Yes, they are. They never last for long. So you have Clevenger 48th. And while you think about where you're going to move him up, I want to read something from Keith Law, who is a scout, former front office guy, writes for ESPN.com. And this is what he said about Mike Clevenger.

I know he had a nice season as a starter in the majors in 2017, but left-handed batters crushed him last year, and that fastball is going to find its way to the seats too often, given its lack of life. Wasn't a great thing to see on Clevenger. Yeah, harsh criticism. And lefties did crush. I didn't, I wasn't even aware of it, but they hit 257 against him. Righties hit 180 against him, and he had a 420 ERA against lefties.

Is 257 crush them? Yeah, you know what? No, it really isn't. I don't know what the OPS is. I'm going to guess a lot. Much worse against lefties than righties. Yeah, yeah, understandably. I didn't realize I was the Mike Clevenger guy, but I haven't ranked five spots ahead of where Scott does.

Well, I guess that's part of the reason I need to move him up. I'm thinking about 41st in my rankings is where Clevenger's going to go. I have him currently 48. And that would put him ahead of Gio, Fulmer, Samarja, Bauer, and a couple others. Yep. Okay, so you guys both have Mike Clevenger as a number four starting pitcher. Another riser for Scott White is... Yeah, go ahead.

This is one that couldn't be a riser for Heath, because this might have been the single player we were the furthest apart on coming into spring training. But it's Ian Hap, who basically the Cubs have said everything they could possibly say to alleviate my concerns about him coming in. I thought he was going to be the ill-fitting part and the one who loses the most of bats.

But instead, Joe Madden's been batting him leadoff this spring. It looks like that's what he's going to fill, at least when they're facing right-handers. And he's done great. I mean, he's at an awesome spring. 3.91 average four home runs, two stolen bases. And beyond that, Theo Epstein has gone out of his way to praise the growth he's had as a defender

and how capable he thinks he is as a center fielder. Because that's the position that if he is going to play every day, that's the position that's going to have to play most often. and it sounds like they're totally on board with him playing it virtually every day. Maybe he's shifting over to second base sometimes to accommodate Albert Almore, especially against left-handed pitchers, and maybe half still sits some against left-handed pitchers. But if he's batting lead-off, getting those extra bats,

and he's batting directly ahead of Chris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo, like, that's, there's definitely upside. And the whole sitting him against left-handed pitchers makes no sense. He is a switch hitter, and he's much better against left-hand. Lefties than Schwabor or Jason Hayward. So they might send him against lefties, but that's one of the worst things. Yeah, no, it wouldn't be a consistent thing. I would guess he's still sometimes the odd man out, but it's not going to be nearly as often as I feared.

So do you guys feel comfortable with Ian Hap as your starting second baseman in a 12-team league? I think I do. Yep. I mean, but there's probably close to 20-second basement I could say I feel comfortable with. Okay. and are you ready, Scott, to move Hap ahead of Yoam Moncada, Kinsler, Scooter, Jeanette, guys like that?

Not Jeanette. I could probably move him ahead of Moncada. I don't know that I could do Kinsler. Definitely not in points. But maybe in Roto. Okay. It's a tight group there. Let's go to some fallers now.

And a couple of followers for Scott, and then we'll do Heath's. Scott, you got one reliever that is going to fall on your rankings. Yeah, Blake Parker, and this isn't going on much, but I trust the source. John Heyman of Fanrak Sports has a, you know, he's as inside as insiders get. And he has a column he writes from time to time where he just gives notes for all 30 of the teams. and in his most recent one it was just kind of

you know it's not like he was quoting anybody directly but he just said Cameron Fedrojan is the favorite for the closer gig and for the Angels and it's like okay that's the first I've heard of that we were all assuming it would be Blake Parker but at the same time we weren't ranking Blake Parker

based on where his numbers say he should be ranked because we didn't trust Mike Sosha to commit to him in the role and this kind of validates that thinking. You know, it's one of those things where, again, it's hard to tell because of the format of the piece, whether how much of that was John's speculation and how much of it was honest to goodness reporting. But I do think he's as plugged in as anyone and he was willing to say it.

So at the very least, I'm moving Bedrosian ahead of Parker. They're probably going to be close together in my rankings. They're probably not going to be very high because I don't have a lot of faith I mean, even the way Haman worded it, it's just Bedrosin's the favorite, not Bedrosin's the guy. So they could still go with Parker. But definitely not the sleeper for saves I was hoping it'd be when draft prep season started.

Well, it's kind of interesting, though, because, you know, maybe if we actually think Parker's better, which we probably do, maybe this actually allows you to get him at a discount. Yeah. You could have gotten him pretty cheap anyway, but now it's like maybe he goes undrafted. But here's the thing. Here's the thing.

Yeah, maybe he does. And look, the ratios are good, so he could be usable even as a middle reliever. But just a year ago, we were having this same discussion about Cam Bedrosion. Cam Bedrosian was the Blake Parker, who we were all rooting to get the gig because the numbers were so superior. And he didn't end up having a great season, but, I mean, look at his 2016 numbers. He could bounce back and still be a stud closer himself. That's really, I mean, Bidrojan's only good season was 2016, but I am just looking at the game logs right now.

If you really want to get cute with the numbers, like you can make a case that Bedrojan really turned it around in the last two months of the season. From August 1st or August 3rd was the first time he pitched in August, until his final outing of the season, he had a 231-ERA, 26 strikeouts, and 23 and a 30. He did have six walks, though. And then in the final outing of the season,

he gave up five runs without recording it out. But he had basically a really good two-month stretch late. But still, he didn't have a good year. Anyway, I think we're hoping for Parker. Maybe we did an AL-only draft last week, and I drafted Parker, and then I was going to take Bedrosian with one of my last picks. He went like two picks ahead of me, so probably should have gone around earlier. It was a mistake on my part.

You can see that draft on the website. That's Blake Parker. So keep an eye on that situation. Also, Scott, who's another follower? Another faller for me is Jose Martinez, who is somebody I praised as a sleeper early, and I still think there's sleeper appeal there. It's just harder. It's gotten harder to see where the abets are going to come,

because Matt Carpenter just now starting to play some after missing all of spring with a back issue. And as part of that, the Cardinals have said they're going to be more reluctant to ask him bounce around the diamond, which was the original plan. He'd play some third base to get Martinez in. He'd play some second base to get Martinez in at first. Because of the help concerns keep popping up, they're pretty much going to want them to stick at first base. And unlike last year, Outfield isn't an option for Martinez anymore

because Ozone is there now, and they have Fam and Fowler. So barring injury, it's hard to see Martinez starting more than a couple times a week, if that. Well, actually, Scott, I think what's really interesting here is what you said about Carpenter, because he's only first base eligible. Do you think he's going to get second base eligibility at some point early enough in the season to really matter? I mean, it's hard to say. It's not like they completely close the door on the idea of them moving around.

I think they said it's going to depend on how he feels. They're going to let him guide that process somewhat. But second base always seemed like the biggest stretch of the three. Like third base was going to be the position he played the second most. Okay. So I wouldn't be holding out much hope for second base. But third base, will it be within the first two months? I'm not sure.

So just so everyone knows in CBSports.com leagues, a player needs five appearances in season to gain second base eligibility. Or no, position eligibility anywhere. Five appearances in season, or was it 20 the year before? 20 the year before, and yeah, five in season, which, yeah, I mean five. Maybe five could happen in April still. I was thinking about the league I owned Carpenter in, which is a 10 team, which is a 10 games in season, to gain eligibility. That might be a little tougher.

But five, I mean, even just flipping over there in like an extra inning situation. Sure. Yeah, it could happen. Yeah, I mean, that's how Anthony Rizzo, just on shifts, he would move to second base. That's how he gained his eligibility. All right, Heath, let's get to your fallers here, and then we'll move on with the show and talk about a lot more stuff around baseball. Heath, a couple fallers, please. Well, you want to have a follower.

How about a guy that starts out in my breakout's 1.0 column and ends up in my busts 2.0 column. And that's Miguel Sino. I am concerned about his conditioning. I am concerned about his help. I am concerned about the fact that he met with MLV investigators about two weeks ago and we've still heard nothing about the results of that investigation. I'm concerned, frankly, about kind of like what I said about Kyle Schwerver last year, whether Miguel Snow is doing everything he can to be the best baseball player that he can.

I still really like his profile. I still think he has enormous upside. But the risk looks much worse than it did at the beginning of this process. So you now have, I don't know if this has changed, but you have Beltray and kind of I'll seeger ahead of Suno. That is correct. Okay. And finally, one more follower, please?

It's Austin Hayes, and I blame Scott, forever ranking him too high. It was fun to get excited about Austin Hayes for a while, and he still has some upside, and he may figure things out the first half of the season in the minor leagues and get a chance in the second half and be an excellent waiver-wire edition. But he's battling with, I believe it's a back injury right now. He's hitting under the Mendoza line. He has not done what he needs. to win a job on the Baltimore Orioles.

Yeah, he missed, he's missed most of spring training with the lad injury, so that's really prevented him from seizing that job that they wanted him to have. So I'm not, like, he's a faller for sure. I'm not thinking it's a wait until mid-season situation, though. I mean, there are only other alternatives there are Joey Rickard and Colby Rasmus, who they signed to a minor league deal. I mean, the spot is still wide open for Austin Hayes if he goes down and does in the minors what he did last year.

I'm still expecting to see him by May. Okay. So let's recap. The two big risers for Heath were Ronald Acuna and Kyle Schwerber. For Scott, Mike Clevenger, really the industry rising and catching up with Scott. And Ian Hap and the biggest fallers, Blake Parker and Jose Martinez for Scott and Miguel Sino and Austin Hayes for Heath. And I think Acuna and Hap really are just big time spring training.

stars right now, and it's good to see. So we've gotten some haiku submissions at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. You all want into the podcast league, either the Points League, which is drafting Monday, March 26 at 8 p.m. Or the Categories League, which is 16 teams, head-to-head categories on Wednesday, March 28th at 8 p.m. And you have submitted your haikus, and here are some of them. From Samir. Heath, the funniest. Adam and Scott, the wisest.

Chris is just a guy. Wow. You're in Samir. The JAG. Now that don't... Chris is the JAG. Don't think that everybody that I'm reading is in. I think one of these five will be in, but I don't know which one just yet. Kyle says, roses are redic, violets or Vida blue?

Pick me, please. Thank you. I thought that was pretty clever, yeah. This one's from Casey. Bobby Bania. This is really still a thing. L.O.L. at Mets. I like that one a lot. still paying Bobby. That's well done.

Yeah. From Tommy. Five syllables here. Seven more syllables here. Are you happy now? No, Tommy. No, Tommy. I'm happy. I like it. A little smart elech response there for you, Adam. From Mike. Heath loves wings naked. Craft beer and Taiwan Walker. Kansas through and through. I see two that should be in.

But are you from Missouri? But I'm a Kansas basketball fan. He's from. the Kansas side of Missouri. He is? Well, I am from the side of Missouri that is touching Kansas, yes. All right, news and notes. The Yankees signed Neil Walker to a one-year deal, about $5 million.

Well, okay, so Labor Torres seems much more likely to start the year in the minors. Yeah, no, that's going to happen. What about Neil Walker? He, Neil Enfielder? Yeah, what do you think? Well, First of all, it's worth noting that Brian Cashman said he has to earn the second base job. Right.

He's going to earn the second base job. He doesn't have a lot of competition. Yeah. Yeah. If he's bad, like he'll probably hit in the lower third of the order, but he'll hit in the lower third of the order with all those great hitters right ahead of him. A lot of high on base types. Yeah, he could be a very sneaky source of RBI. Yeah, he could hit 20.

I mean, the thing is, you have to. assume he's not going to have the job all year, right? Well, I don't know. Because he's capable of playing third base. Glaver Torres was initially going to get called up to play third base himself last year before he hurt the elbow. So I would think Brandon Drury, I mean, Brandon Drury, I feel like the worst offensive player than Neil Walker, and he would fit better in the super utility role since he

can also play the outfield. I would think he'd be the odd man out when Glaver Torres is ready. Yeah, I'm trying to figure out where I'm going to move Neil Walker to. It's going to be behind, and it's weird that Austin Barnes is ranked at second base, but guys like Austin Barnes, Javier Baez, but I would not be surprised if he's better than those guys this year at all. Yeah, I wish he had had a normal spring training. We do have to factor that in. But also, Tyler Wade has played pretty well for the Yankees at second base so far this spring training.

But Walker, look, I mean, he hit 14 home runs in 111 games last year, but 2016, he had 23 homers in 113 games, and now he's going to Yankee Stadium, and he's a lefty. He's had an 800 or better OPS three of his last four seasons. How crazy is this, since it's crazy Omitur Day? Neil Walker could be on a 30 homer pace when he plays. Not crazy at all. He plays in a minor league ballpark.

It's a good park for him. Okay, so definitely probably somebody you're drafting as a middle infielder. I don't know. I don't want to. Right, right? I think people would draft him as a middle infielder. Yeah, it's like the, I just said earlier, right?

There's about 20 second basement. I could say I'd be comfortable having as my starter. So it's a hard group to break into. That's the only thing. Like, in theory, yeah, Neil Walker looks like a good starter in fantasy. But who are you going to kick out of that club? I don't know. I mean, it's one of those situations where he may go undrafted,

but when some of the upside, less proven types, like Yohan Moncada, you know, when that, the weeding out process happens there. Neil Walker does wind up being somebody starter. Yeah. Okay, then. Texas relief pitcher Matt Bush is not going to join the rotation. He's back in the bullpen. So I mentioned what Keith Law said about Mike Clevenger.

He said this about Denelson Lamet. His lack of a change-up has been a huge problem for him as left-handed batters killed him in 2017, with an additional 330 points of OPS compared to what he allowed to Rides. His change-up Saturday had some action to it, but was too firm at 88 to 90 miles per hour. If Lament can get some more finesse to that pitch instead of just throwing it hard, he'll have a chance to stay a starter. It's pretty interesting, I think. Yeah, Dill Nelson Lemaat does need a change-up. And he came up last year throwing one, and then he had a couple bad starts and abandoned it.

So I don't know if they just decided it wasn't very good. He was getting some swings and misses on it early. But, yeah, that is the story with him. I would say the change up. And he has been working on it this spring, so we'll see. All righty. And an MRI on Robinson and Kono's hamstring came back negative. Yohanna Cespitus could hit second this season.

How would that affect Cespitus's value? It would go up in points for sure. Okay? Yeah, points we like plate appearances. Taiwan Walker was serving tacos to fans before yesterday's game, Heath. Is there anything Taiwan Walker cannot do? Get on board with this guy. He's serving tacos at a taco truck to fans.

How can you move him up, Scott? Bison Taco. Bison Taco. Bison Taco? I was wondering if it was... Walking tacos? What is the... What is the taco with... You know, it's a hard shell, and then on the outside, it's a soft shell, and you have the beans in between. Is that a Gordita? I thought that was called a Tijuana Tijuana.

A Chalupa? I was wondering... I think that is a Chalupa. I have no idea, Scott. No, a chalupa is a fried... It's a fried shell. That's a jalupa. Okay, I don't know.

I really don't know. It's all the same to me. I thought they were called Tijuana tacos, and so I was wondering if he was serving. No, Bison, Pete. Corey Seger's elbow's feeling good. That's good news. Corey Seeger's elbow feeling good. So let's talk about small sample sizes.

I'm going to give you a stat, and a lot of it is shortstop for whatever reason. I'm going to give you a stat of what guys did last year before injuries in a lot of cases or in small sample sizes, and you tell me what you make of it. All right, some high-end players here. Carlos Correa, before he tore a ligament in his thumb, Carlos Correa, in his first 84 games, had a 966 OPS. 25 games after returning from injury, which was a pretty extended absence, he had an 8.53 OPS.

But Correa, 966 OPS. I'm going to lump his team. That was 84 games before the injury. I'm going to lump his teammate George Springer in there, too. 973 OPS in 99 games before his quad. injury. And then after missing more than two weeks with a quad injury, he came back and Springer was terrible in his last 47 games. He had a 717 OPS. He batted 228. So Correa and Springer had 966 or better OPSs before getting hurt last year. Does that mean anything to you?

I actually think Correa's numbers after the injury may make a little more sense if you just look at his entire batted ball profile. He had a BAP-up over $3.50 last year, despite a pretty average line drive rate. He had a low fly ball rate, a below-average fly-ball rate. And yet he was still on a crazy home-run pace. Well, not a crazy home-run pace, but like a, you know, more than 30 home-run pace. So I've had that concern for Correa, just looking at the numbers. Was he everything he looked like last year?

and I know the upside is huge and he's still very young, so maybe the batted ball stuff will just catch up to the numbers. But maybe not. Maybe he is more of a sub-900 OPS guy, which would still make him top three shortstop, but maybe a little less than what he's being drafted to be. Yeah, if you put the OPS for next year at 900, I'd probably take under, but just barely.

And the problem I have with the whole sample size thing, and Chris and I went back and forth So that's about Corey Seeger. If you want to chop out a 90-game segment of Corey Seger's career, the best 90 games, it's not that far from what Correa did over 90 games. It's not so much that I really doubt it. It's just that he is a player whose talent is one of the best in baseball. He's going to have stretches like that, but his best stretch is not who he is.

And Seeger's another guy is on this list who in his first four months, he batted 304, 395 on base, 529 slugging. So that's what, 924 OPS for Seeger in his first four months, and then he got hurt. Oh, I already wrote 924 OPS. I didn't have to do the calculations. Then he was playing through a back injury at a 7-11 OPS in his last two months. I guess if I can shorten this segment, the three guys who were great pre-injury and not so great either playing through it or after coming off the D.L were Correa, Springer, and Seeger.

Do you just want to take the full season numbers Or do you want to sort of make excuses for them And expect better things It doesn't seem like you guys are doing that for Correa What about for Springer and Seeger? I'm more taking the full season numbers But I can give Springer and Seeger a pass a little more Because we saw Springer bounce back with a huge postseason

Particularly in terms of power and Seeger was playing through the injury even into the post. He missed parts of the postseason with the injury. So I can see that a little more for them, but I don't think what they did, the full season numbers, I don't think I can look at that and say, okay, clearly something would wrong here. Like it just seems within the realm of possibility

what they did during the season. It's easier for me with Seeger because he was so bad. I mean, he had a 700 OPS over the last two-month stretch. Yeah, but same with Springer. I mean, Springer had a 7-11 OPS in his last 47-17 in his last 47 games. And the thing about Springer was, I don't think he was good in the postseason. I think he was only good in the World Series. I think he sucked in the first two rounds.

Didn't he have like seven home runs in the past season? All in the World Series. He had like six homers in the World Series. I'll look it up and confirm. I think that's enough to call it a good postseason. No, but Correa had a great postseason, too. Raya had 288, 325, 562. He also was very good after returning from the injury,

just not as good as before. Yeah, he was, 853 OPS, yeah. Yeah. I'm sorry, Heath. You were saying about Seeger? I'm just more likely to throw out the last month and a half for Seeger. Oh, right, okay. And then, yeah, so here's Springer, postseason,

until before the World Series, Springer was hitting 227 with two home runs. And then in the World Series he went absolutely bananas. He hit five homers. All right. Two other guys that I had on the list. Francisco Indoor. I mean, his first 119 games, he had a 772 OPS.

Like, he was kind of a bust. Francisco Indore 119 games with a 262 batting average 19 homers, eight steals. His last 40 games, he had a 1057 OPS. You know, do you, are you concerned? that people are drafting Lindor based on 40 games? Not really.

I mean, a shortstop who hits 19 home runs and steals 8 bases in 119 games is still pretty exceptional. Wait, really? So a shortstop who hits... 19 home runs and steals 8 bases in 119 games.

You project that over a full season. That's close to 3015, right? That's still a standout. Okay. And the thing is, like, he's not just what he was in those 119 games. He's not just what he was in those 40 games. I think it's one of those scenarios where you just take the full season line. Okay.

And then finally, D.D. Gagorius, his plate discipline is what I wanted to look at here. Pre-all-Star break, 10 walks, 39 strikeouts. Post-all-star break, 15 walks, 31 strikeouts. And then in the post-season, seven walks, 12 strikeouts. So after the All-Star break and including the postseason, 22 walks, 34 strikeouts. So basically one walk to two-strikes. And pretty good. A lot of improvement there.

Does that matter to you at all with Diti? I hadn't given it a thought until now. I would still be surprised if he's an above or even an average walker. Yeah, I'm trying to look at his – because those raw numbers are really hard for me to – to process in terms of first half, second half. His walk rate in the first half was 3.8%. And the second half, it was 4.9%. So below average either way.

But the strikeout percentage is dropping down to 10.2% in the second half. That's the other part of it, yeah. That's very impressive. What did, what was the strikeout rate in 2016? Oh, Scott. I just thought you had his fan grades. I do. It's just not on the same page. I will have it in just a second.

The general question I have for Dedi Grorious is, is there another level? Or does there even need to be? Because if he does what he did last year but does it without missing a month, then he's going to be one of the best values in the draft, I think, because he would have been like a top five shortstop. And, you know, those guys get drafted in the first four rounds, basically, except, well, Andrews doesn't because nobody buys it. But, I mean, Gregorius could have 30 home runs.

He's not going to steal the bases of Lindor, but he could do a lot of the other things. The thing I'll say is, and I know he played at Yankee Stadium, and that helps a lot. He had a 23% hard contact rate last year. He had a 24% soft contact. Only really bad hitters make more soft contact than hard contact. I know, but it's been two years in a row because we had the same discussion.

Although the year before it was at least 24% hard, 19% soft. That was a little better. I would add, before you start, putting top five potential on him. He's kind of like the Jonathan's scope of second baseman. Yeah, he... Short stops, yeah. Yeah, short stops.

Yeah, if he didn't miss a month, he probably would have had a good average in about 30 homers, and sure, that's valuable. But there's so little to go with it. Yeah, yeah. That on a per game basis, like, he just doesn't measure up to those elite hitters. Right. He doesn't stand out in anything but home runs, really, for short stops.

And that's why I don't love Gugoria. but he does fall pretty far. Let me just see where he's going, and then we'll conclude this discussion. D.D. Gregorius is going. He's the ninth shortstop off the board. He's going 107th overall. You'd take him there, right?

That's what, the eighth round of a 12th team league? Ninth round. Ninth round? End of the ninth. That's about the earliest I'd take him. If Jonathan Scope was going in the ninth round, then I don't think anyone would call him the bus. So I think it's the earliest you could justify.

You know, it's been interesting. I'm looking at guys that made as much soft contact as D.D. Grigourius last year. And it's D. Gordon, Billy Hamilton, Jan Harvest Solarte, Manuel Margo, Jose Reyes, and Jose Parraza. Yeah. One of those guys had a home run to fly ball rate over 9%. Three of them were less than 4%. I just don't get it because, like, he was, he was, he was, great in the playoffs.

He's been a home run hitter two years in a row, basically. That's what I was getting? What was this hard contact rate in 2016? When he was also a Yeah, so I don't get it. Every time he makes hard contact, he makes it count. It's a little different though. If he's a 20 homer guy over

600 plate appearances and doesn't really do anything else for you, then that's not worth that much. Like he's probably being drafted appropriately. De De De DeGugorius really seems to be like someone who has just benefited from the baseball. And that was my... And the stadium.

And the stadium, yeah. But I think his road power was pretty good last year, too. But that was my concern. Like, if they changed the baseball, I circle Gagorius as a guy who would really suffer. But I haven't seen anything about it. So I'm still drafting based on... We're in Homer Land still. Which I think everybody is, right?

Yeah. Okay. All right, that's it for the sample size chatter. Let's go to a few notes here. We have gotten a lot of emails. I think people were really, I don't know, captivated, angered, enticed by the discussion we had about the best categories. I think I just have to let it die because we've gotten a lot of feedback on it. And I'll just say, like, hey, to each his own.

I do want to make one announcement about the categories. Oh, no. Are you changing the head-head categories? On CBSSports.com, you have the ability to do basically everything. Okay. Thank you. I have already changed our stolen bases to net stolen bases. Because I think there was no real disagreement yesterday that net stolen basis is probably better than stolen bases unless you just love the way we've always done things.

Works for me. And then the other thing is you can actually go in. There's a page inside the commissioner product where you can add a custom category. And you can put the abbreviation for the category you want. and then the sign times minus plus divided by whatever other category you want. So if you look through the 100 different categories we have and it's not listed there, you can just make it yourself. That's very cool. That is very cool.

And that's why you should be playing commissioner on CBSports.com. CBSports.com slash FBT. Real baseball players play on our website. CBSports.com slash FBT. Sign up, people. Send us your haikus. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Join our Bracket Challenge. I've been tweeting it.

You can email me. I will send you a link. Join the Bracket Challenge. Whoever's winning after the Elite 8 gets in the podcast league. And by the way, what was I going to say about that? Oh, yeah, I will break any ties. Check out CBS Sports HQ, a new way to get the latest scores, news, and highlights. On all your favorite sports and a great place to follow March Madness.

CBS Sports HQ, brand new 24-7 streaming sports and sports. info channel. It's always on. It is completely free. You can stream it on any of your connected devices, like Apple TV, Roku, on your phone, on the CBS Sports app, or on CBS SportsHQ.com. I love CBS SportsHQ. It is outstanding. It is the best thing that you will use to follow sports now. So how about that? And let's see, what else we got here? Email the day. Speaking of categories, email the day is from TJ. Dear Garrett, Jeff and Julio, Top 15 pitchers and quality starts with an ERA greater than four. I was listening to your discussion on categories.

I know everyone jumps on the Quality Starts bandwagon. But why? Of the top 25 quality start pitchers, eight had ERAs greater than four. And of the top 25 wins pitchers, only three had ERAs greater than four. There's nothing quality about a quality start, but you play to win the game.

You do play to win the game. the team plays to win the game. The pitcher does not have near as much effect on winning the game as he does on making a quality start. Yeah, but, I mean, there is something to be so that it's an interesting stat that the wins leaders were just better than the quality starts leaders if you take the cumulative ERAs. Yeah. It's a fair point. Like, I'm not as about replacing wins with quality starts as heat is. And I think part of the issue, and why I've suggested just changing it to any.

in the past, which I know wouldn't directly address the issue of rewarding high ERA pitchers. But quality start is just, it's just kind of a measurement we can use because it's a measurement that exists, you know? Like, we want something that rewards both pitcher endurance and overall effectiveness and supporting cast. Well, I guess it wouldn't reward supporting cast at all. Just endurance and overall effectiveness. And that's the best we have.

You know? Yeah, I would be in favor, especially in points leagues, in just giving more value two innings and two strikeouts and getting rid of the whole win-loss quality start debate entirely. You know, it would be a cool category, and I don't know. Maybe that, you know, create a stat. Maybe it would work there.

I'm not exactly sure how. But, like, if it was just seven-inning starts. Yeah, yeah, that'd be interesting. But, you know, rewarding inning. Or maybe six innings, does that. It's sevens too stringent. Well, I would be fine playing with either wins or quality starts. And I used to think I was a wins guy.

Then I became quality starts. Honestly, this email from T.J. Sort of swayed me back to wins. But anyway, it's team name Tuesday. Wins are fun. Yeah, it's one year's worth of death. Or agonizing. It's only talking about the leaders.

I remain unsuaded. It is Team Name Tuesday, everybody. Stroman My Pain with his Finnegan. Old Dirty Bastardo. Old Dirty Bastardo. Yeah. Devil's going to give you up. That was Devers going to give you up.

Holden door. You guys don't get that because you're going to watch Game of Thrones. Nope. War and Reese. I like that one. Yeah. Because it's war like the... Yes.

War and Reese. and plead the FIP. Plead the FIP is outstanding. No? Plead the Fip is not outstanding. It's not bad. I see one good team name

I'm waiting for it. I cane, I shaw, I donned. Yes. Outstanding. What's better? I can't I shaw I donged

or I can't I shaw I homered? I can't, I shaw, I don't. Yeah, but homered is the right amount of syllables. I came, I saw I conquered.

Yeah. I don't think either. Very good. Donged. And I'll be used except one C. It's a report card team name. Not terrible.

It took me like a song. What the hell is that? Oh, yeah. I think you want to be able to get it instantaneously. Thank you. Those are the best team names. Thank you for your team name Tuesdays. Haskedongs and Hanigar.

I mean, it's not Yasmani Money, Tomoth problems. Hoss Dongs and Hanaker. What was it, Scott? Hoss dogs. Hossedongs and Hanikers. Yes. Got terrible. Just awful.

All right. Here's the crazyometer. Zero to ten. How crazy would it be if Billy Hamilton hits well? Quantify, please. All right. Zero is like not crazy at all. It's actually going to happen.

Ten is there's no chance that happens. Okay, I appreciate you doing that. I actually knew how to quantify. That's part of the scale. I meant what does Billy Hamilton hits well mean? Are we talking about he has a 280 average? I'll give him, I'll say 270. because he's never done that.

And he's only been close, like, once. That's like a two on the crazyometer. Yeah. Yeah, hang on a second. Yeah, that's... You just needs a good run of a bad bit. Yeah, it's not very high. I'll go three.

I just want to say one thing about Billy Hamilton. You expect him to help with runs. Because over the last two seasons, Hamilton has been on pace for 97 runs in 162 games, which actually, like, I would think would be better. But in 2016, though, in a combined 38 games batting 7th, 8th, or 9th, 38 games batting 7th, 8th, or 9th, he scored 18 runs. So I think it's a little worrisome if Billy Hamilton gets moved to the bottom of the order

because you can't hit, you're not going to get the runs that you expected. You probably still get the steals, but you won't get the runs. They don't really have a lot of good top-of-the-order options, though. Jesse Winker on the day he starts is expected to hit. Alita. He's just a terrible hitter. He has been. So, I mean, they got to have better options than him.

So, you know, just something to keep in mind. All right. Crazyometer. Miguel Cabrera finishes top five in ALMVP. That's probably, it's a little crazier than last one. Billy Hamill had 10 hitting 270. I'll go four. Three.

Bring some crazy. Oh, well, this one's definitely not crazy. Josh Donaldson finishes top five. 5 an AL MVP. Yeah, it's like a 2. Yeah, 1. Carlos Gonzalez becomes a must-start outfielder. Also not crazy.

Well, okay. Let me call this the 4 and make Cabrera a top 5 MVP. Let's make that a 6. I was a little too dismissive of the craziness there. But there's only one thing that held back Miguel Cabrera was injuries, right? Yeah, I'm only giving him a 6. I mean, top 5 is a pretty high threshold, especially since he's probably going to be playing for a bad team.

And bad luck. He's going to overcome luck as well. You know what? I'm going to move it up another number. It's a seven. I'm staying where I'm at. Carlos Gonzalez's three. Oh, really?

See, I need to build myself in some more wiggle room. So Cabreya top five MVP, that's a seven. Carlos Gonzalez must start outfielder. That's like a five. There are five outfielder leagues and a lot of 15 teams. All right, three outfielder league. A start I assume across the board. Oh, points too.

Like, Carlos Gonzalez is really good. So, like, what he's been every, each of the last three years. I'll downgrade him a little bit, but, you know, like, more than 30 homers, 85 or more RBI. I don't think five on the crazeometer is a crazy, crazeometer, a science, like designation. Agreed. Yeah. Like, that's not that crazy. All right.

Five is still not that crazy. So nothing I've said has been that crazy so far. No. Eleadmus Diaz regains his fantasy value and was good all along. Two. Four. Wait, I'm sorry. No, six.

Sorry. Five. Two is the likely scenario, right? I wanted to say this is unlikely, so I'm giving it a nine. Oh, it is totally crazy, according to Scott, that Aledmus Diaz regains his fantasy value and was good all along. Yes. Okay. All right, good to know.

Aaron Judge hits less than 35 home runs. Did we get the without injury? Yeah, yeah, yeah. stays healthy and hits less than 35 home runs. 10 Crazy Town banana pants I'll give it an 8 Yeah right

It's pretty safe bet for 35 home runs Byron Bucston steals 40 bases I think he stole 29 or 30 last year 40 bases for Bucson Zero Totally realistic He's a lot for 40 stolen bases That's the same

Um That's aggressive I will give it a I will give it a 6 I mean if we think that Bucson is going to steal 35 to 40 bases. Should he go ahead of

Starling Marte? No, because I think Starling Marte might hit 300 as well. Yeah. But how likely is Marte for 40 steals? Like, less likely than not, right? I mean more likely than Buxton. I'm putting them around the same range.

Well, you give it to Bxton is zero, so that means Starling Marte is zero also. That's correct. Yeah, so they're both locks for 40 steals. I don't think zero means lock. Well, zero means it's going. You've got 11 numbers to play with. I think you can make it mean luck. He has stolen 40 bases twice already in his career.

He was on 40 steal pace last year. Look, look, without getting into the specifics, like, it's realistic that Buxton and Marte could steal within five bases of each other, right? They could be the same. Yes. So, yeah, I just don't know that people look at Buxton and look at Marte and think the same thing. We've talked about that. Like, I don't know that people are thinking of Buxton.

as a steals specialist. As the guy, oh, we've got to get him because we're running out of steals. Whereas people do see Martaida. Because he's, because he came on strong. And he's not going that early. I'll look it up. He's going like six rounds. He's going after Marte.

He's going after Hamilton, I think. I mean, Marte is a proven batting average in steel source, and those are the two hardest categories, hitting categories, to fill in a Roto league. So that, like, he should go ahead of Buxton. Buckston is probably as comparable Steele's potential, but definitely less batting average potential without some major underlying changes.

But definitely more power potential. Definitely, I mean. Then Marte? Yeah. How many homerets did Bucston hit last year? I don't know, but Marte, has he ever hit more than 15? Why would people, like, why was Bauer Bucson? Bustin hit 16 last year in 140 games.

He had 10 in 92 games in 2016. Marte has hit 19 before. So, I mean, yes, I do think, okay, if we're just, yes, Buxden has more power potential than Marte. Like, is it a sure thing he's going to hit more home runs than Marte this year, though? And I don't think it is. I don't think it's a sure thing. I would just say, and I think Buxton is being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor,

certainly. The thing he has over Marte is that he could, if he's a second round pick next year or a late first round pick next year, that's possible. I don't know that it's possible for Marte. All right, so maybe people are drafting him for steals. They are drafting Buckson's 60th overall, 10 picks behind Marte, but seven or eight picks ahead of Billy Hamilton,

end of the fifth round at a 12-team league. I thought people were drafting Buckson 60, 61st overall because he's a former elite prospect who showed some. signs in the second half last year, and they're hoping for just a full-on breakout, not just the Steele's breakout. I mean, there's definitely some of that there, but I,

if they couldn't count on them for steals, I think we would see them drafted more like round 12. Fair. All right, then, finally, crazyometer. Well, you know, this isn't that crazy. All right, I'll make it even crazier. Chris Archer has an ERA under 310.

Seven. I, man. So that's really, that's like, like extra crazy in Heath's world. Yes. The craziest thing. I'll give it a six. Okay.

Let's read some emails to finish the show. Mike from Nueva, York. I think you and basically everyone in the industry is insane with this Trey Turner hype. I can at least understand the logic in Roto leagues, even though I don't agree with it. But for points, not all, well, I'm not going to read that, but here's some things to consider about Turner. 51% ground ball rate. 26.7% hard contact. 14.8% line drive rate, has never played a full season, has just over 700 MLB at bats.

Will the new manager let him steal 60 bases? Don't get me wrong, I love Turner, but top four in Roto is bad enough. Top five in points is bat poop insane. Well, except for the fact that he was far and away the top shortstop in points per game last year in points league's last year. And among the top overall hitters, I'm trying to see really quickly how many hitters had more points. per game than him last year. Trout, Harper, some of the outfielders,

Blackman, Martinez, Stanton. But among infielder's, Trey Turner, was the highest. Does anyone actually have him top five in points? I'm not bottomed goal. Oh, that's a good point, too. I don't think anyone does.

I have him 11th, 10th or 11th. Yeah. I let him 11th. But, like, I mean, he's a stud in that format, too. The only thing that might make a difference is if, You know, CBS standard is two points per stolen base, and if your points league is one point per stolen base, well, that changes the calculation quite a bit because that's the thing Turner does best. But that goes for all base dealers, and if you haven't figured out by now that base dealers aren't as valuable in your format as they are in the CBS Standard League, then you're not very observant.

This is from Joshua. Will Anthony Rizzo gain second base, or retain second base eligibility against CBS this year? I know. No, but he can get it. He may regain it. Yeah, he could get it if he gets five appearances there. Eric in Atlanta, dear Brian, Freddie, and Bobby. Braves managers? Yeah.

Yeah. Snicker, Freddy Gonzalez and Bobby Cox, sure. Thanks for recommending the HQ app. It's awesome. Just wondering if you could spend a little bit more time on Gregory Polanco. Do you think Polanco can be a number two outfielder if things go right? Team Scam for Life. Yes.

But that's a big, yeah. Yeah. Adam, do you think he could be the best outfielder on the Pirates? Yeah, of course. How many outfielders would they have to trade now to make that happen? You know, I mean, the fact that he doesn't hit left, he stinks. But I think that Pittsburgh fans, if we have some Pirates fans, I'd like to know, view him as, like, a great athlete with a ton of potential,

which is what I thought he was, and he had a terrible year. So maybe he was playing hurt. I don't know. He sucked. I mean, I butcher that last year, but I'm not giving up on Palanka. I'd like to get a little bit of Gregory Polanco. Hi, what you. Let's see.

From Kyle, who has better upside? Matt Harvey or Marco Estrada? Oh, Matt Harvey. I mean, he's twice been in the best pitcher in baseball conversation. Who do I think is more likely to meet his upside? I think it's Estrada. Harvey should probably be drafted first. but I think he's the more likely to be dropped before the end of April.

Yeah, I guess I would agree with that just because I think the most likely outcome is that they're both bad pitchers. But Estrada could get really lucky like he has the best. For most of Estrada's career, he has been a good pitcher. Right, that's the thing, like some guys outperform their peripherals. I mean, the same conversation we had about Diti. It's like you're going to keep looking, you're going to keep calling him lucky? Like, he's had sustained success with Toronto. We know the thing with him.

When his change-up sucks, he gets pummeled. When his change-up's good, he's good. He had two good years with Toronto. Right, that's enough. One terrible year. But even in the terrible... Even in the terrible year, he had good stretches, and then he lost his change-up. I mean, isn't it possible he's just going to be better than his peripherals?

No, I think he's likely to be better than his peripherals. I don't think he's likely to be a low-3-ZRA pitcher. What about mid-3s? With a good strikeout rate, really good whip. upper threes with a slightly above strikeout rate and questionable whip I mean he's always had a low whip he's such a good control pitcher he had 3.4 or 4 walks per 9 last year and 3.3 the year before what's okay well where his whips he was 1 38 last year yeah last year was he was

1 1 1 2 the year before with a 234 babit against okay the walks have gotten worse than I remembered but I still think of him as low whip guy I think it's like you should probably take Harvey Ahead of Estrada because there's some buzz on Harvey. There's really none on Estrada. There's none on Estrada. You can get Estrada.

I think I have yet to see someone other than me draft Estrada. You haven't been looking at me, Teams, Pam. I've drafted it. Fairly not. Okay, that's it for today's show. Very good show. Thank you, everybody. Email us Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com,

and we will come back tomorrow with more fantasy baseball chatter.