Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/15 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: The Strategy Show

Episode Date: March 15, 2018

Are you Team SCAM (Scott and Adam) or Team CREATH (Chris and Heath)? It might depend on how important SP is to you on Draft Day. We get into a thorough discussion about how to approach drafts (10:20) keeping in mind different formats ... Starting the show with news and analysis on Nelson Cruz (3:20), Zack Greinke (6:10) and Yoenis Cespedes (8:20) ... Players we often draft (31:00), players we avoid (35:00) and RP news and strategies (37:15). Plus more Spring Training storylines (44:55) you need to know ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, real quick, Scott's bombed about the humidor. And take your milk for breakfast cereal. Mount Rushmore. They'll be there for a chance. Welcome to the podcast. Time to talk fantasy baseball. And time to get you ready for your drafts. What are you guys drafting?

I feel like everybody's waiting so long to draft. I was thinking the exact opposite. We've completed almost all of our drafts like a week ago. Yeah, but that's because you're obligated. You're obligated. Yeah, but you're obligated to do drafts. Are the listeners actually drafting right now? I don't think so.

So a little inside information. I believe 90% of our drafts on CBSports.com are still yet to happen. Right. Crazy. There's a lot. I did one last night. That's the better way to do it. It's the way we do it in football too.

That's good. We generally draft the one or two weeks before the season starts. Yeah, I think my home league is three days before the season starts, and that's good, because two years ago, I lost A.J. Pollack during my draft. I had drafted him and then lost him when he broke his elbow in that spring training game. Oh, no, it is good that people are waiting. It's just, I'm a little surprised that it's been such a slow pace. And considering the fact that the season starts a little earlier than usual, but today, we are going to kind of give you a little bit of an overview. It's tough to do. I'm trying to find the episode that helps everybody get ready for drafts even more than the position previews did. And like I said at the end of yesterday's show, it's just so much time. tougher in baseball than football because there are so many different formats, and then even within formats, like head-to-head categories leagues, there are so many different types of categories leagues, there are innings, minimums, and maximums, and it's just, it's not one-size-fits-all,

it's not even close. But today we will talk a little bit of strategy. I will direct you to an article that Heath wrote yesterday. Was it yesterday that you wrote it? I did write it yesterday. It was also published yesterday, and I could not be more excited. This is a really a first on the podcast. I'd like to try it out

It's really not going to help anybody I don't think I think it's going to help a lot of people I've written things Why don't we talk about those? I'm sure you have Heath wrote a story about basically how he intends to draft

In points leagues Categories leagues And Roto leagues I did what you've been asking me To do for like three weeks Which is what I gave a pre-draft strategy Yeah

And it was helpful It's good And of course you're gonna have to be flexible But it's a good baseline To have And then Scott wrote about pitching strategy, right? Right, Scott White?

Yeah, I've said before on the podcast a few times that I feel like innings has become a market inefficiency because everybody's basically on board with what makes for a skilled pitcher, but the way the pitching landscape is changing, you can't assume innings for the most skilled pitchers like you used to be able to. So I kind of outlined what I mean by that, and, you know, showed just how much it's changing and what I'm doing because of it. So that's up on the site, too.

All righty. So before we get into some strategy stuff, let's talk about the big news items. Nelson Cruz items has a grade one quad strain. All right, let's go through these. I got four big news items here. One of them is Josh Donaldson expects to play tomorrow. We talked about him yesterday. But first, Nelson Cruz, grade one quad strain.

When are you drafting Nelson Cruz, who is in CBS Sports.com, league's only DHL eligible and are you considering downgrading him? Probably like round six and no not really. This doesn't sound like he doesn't sound concerned, doesn't sound like a big deal. Maybe he'll have one of those like missed the first five days of the season situations, but it doesn't sound like something that's going to linger. And I feel like this has been mostly, Scott and I have been a little different on this, this spring training, this has been mostly Scott's take on most of the small, muscular injuries

that have mostly, to his credit, not sounded like big deals. It makes me a little bit more concerned just because Nelson Cruz is like old enough to be Chris's dad and injuries, beget injuries. He had a child when he was eight? He's old. He's 37, and Cruz was the number 17 hitter in points leagues, number 13 in Roto last year, still very, very valuable, and he hits 39 home runs or more every single year. And he plays 152 games or more for straight years.

I feel like he had some bumps and bruises along the way last year. I don't know if you guys recall. I think if you take the approach on an individual level that this doesn't actually mean anything, it's going to be okay. You may be right slightly more often than you're wrong. But a couple of these are going to – we're going to look back in June and be like, well, he was hurt all spring training, we should have known. I will just say with regards to Nelson Cruz, he's probably being undervalued to begin with.

So this might bring his price to where it should be. Okay. Yeah, ADP, boy, you want to go? His 80P is 51 right now. Thank you. We're talking about a guy who's been a top dozen hitter for five straight years now. Now, yes, he's 37 years old. Right.

Yes, he could slow down. But we've seen zero sign of it. We're baking in the downside with him already without really accounting for the upside. A little bit of it, too, though, is, and I know you don't like your team zero positions. Uh-huh. In a roto league, especially on our site, where you've got all those offensive positions to fill, and he's not going to fill, he can only sit in the utility. Yes.

And so that should drive it down a little bit, too. Kind of. I don't worry about it as much in points. Yeah. Okay, all right. We're done with Nelson Cruz. Zach Granky left with groin tightness. How concerning is this?

Zach Grinke leaving with groin tightness yesterday's start. He's already dealing with decreased velocity. Well, the velocity was fine. That's fine. And that's why he heard his groin. My position on it is that I'm just not going to worry about Zach Rankie's velocity in spring training anymore because it just, we did this last year.

We did this the year before. The only reason it's even an issue is because he, He took the brutally honest stance in typical Zach Grinky fashion that, oh, yeah, every year I worry it's not going to be there when the time comes. It's just like every year, like every time I wake up in the middle of the night and my arm is like limp and dead, I worry that I'm not going to get the feeling back and we're going to have to amputate. It's not rational, but it's technically true. I do worry about that. So that's all I feel like Grinke is saying. He looked.

And then he looked excellent yesterday before the injury. It doesn't sound like it's a big concern. Okay. It was great. I was talking with people on Twitter during that first inning. Well, are you worried about that Grinke? No, he looks really good. The velocity's back.

And then he doesn't go back out for the second inning. I might be a slight, like, I don't know that there is a huge difference between pitchers in that tier. He's not in the first tier, but he's right there solidly in the second. And I might be, like, if this lingers for a week, I might be moving. him down a little bit. See, he's another guy that I think was probably being a little undervalued anyway. Right, I may move him closer with ADP. Yeah, his ADP is 41. I think he's a great value there. I've been willing to take him, you know, in the early 30s. So this could just make him even more of a value. If people want to, if we're drafting in the next couple of days and people want to let him

fall to the fifth round, please do. Right. And he was, he is currently, Granky's going after Carrasco, Severino, Verlander, and DeGrom. And, you know, it's possible that with no injury that any of us would take him before those guys. So, yeah, 41 overall is pretty solid for Granky. And Yohanna Cespitus has wrist soreness. X-rays were negative. Look, we know the injuries with this guy. He had too much bulk last year.

He came into spring training, not overweight, but just without the proper body type, Yueness Cespitus, and had an injury play. season, not his first. And now wrist-sorness, which apparently have been bothering him for like a week. Is this the most concerning of the three between Cruz, Granky, and Cespitas? Yes, because it's the Mats. I mean, like, I don't mean to be glib, but this team does not handle injuries well. Like, this is...

They have a whole new medical staff there, right? They've, in theory, addressed that issue. Right, but then they kept letting you know an Aspidus who's... 31 and has a history of injuries play through wrist soreness. I think there was a point where he went for x-rays.

The manager was talking to the media and he didn't know that Yueness Sespitas had X-rays, even though Yon Ases had already said to the media that he had. I believe he had a cortisone shot in the wrist as well. I think you do have to be concerned. Yeah. Is it a team name Thursday? Can we just go with pain and yuenus?

Sure. I think that's pretty good. Again, his injury risk, we don't, we're not projecting him for 160 games. It's been baked into his ADP. Right. And then he's another guy that was probably a pretty nice value before this. Yeah, I think so, but not everybody does. I mean, on a per game basis, getting him in the 80-second overall with Lorenzo Kane, Domingo Santana.

Not a lot of outfielders there. It's kind of a confirmation bias thing. Like, this worries me the most. If for no other reason, then because I perceive Cespides as a perpetual injury risk, and it's like, oh, here we go again. Yeah, but when he plays, he's going to have a 900 OPS. So it's a question of if he plays 130 games, he's a value at 80 second overall. If he plays 100 games, then he's not. Let's do some draft tips.

Here we go. So Heath had left us abruptly after the podcast that ended in a huff because he wasn't going to be able to eat any pie on Pie Day yesterday. I was just in a hurry. We finished the podcast. It was almost bedtime. He was mad. We did personally late. Scott, Chris and I lingered and discussed doing a strategy episode.

And, you know, while discussing, I basically came down to this. Like, your strategy on draft day is more or less dependent on starting pitcher. You know, it's tough to say take this position here, this position there, whatever. But it really, like, your draft is probably going to. come down to when you want to take starting pitcher. Agree or disagree on that first point. It's oversimplification. It is an oversimplification, but if we're trying to simplify, that seems like a pretty

good way of doing it. I think it comes down to when you're going to take a hitter. Like, the pitchers part is, there's three main things, I would say. Pitchers, how many relievers, and do you have to get steals? I think it just... That's true, yeah. It really does depend on the league you're in. Like that's, but that's, well, I mean, yeah.

Last night I did a draft only league where you don't set a lineup, it's just whatever players you pick, that's who you stick with. And that's the only league where I've taken the elite closers. I took Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbril, both because they fell a little bit and it just, it seems like the right format where their value gets maximized. But that's, that's not my thought most of the time. Most of the time I think they're being overdrafted. So it's just And obviously if you're playing in like a points league Then it doesn't really matter your opinion on steals

It's just another it's just another drop in the bucket for these players So I mean I think if we're looking for a widespread Overarching Takeaway for draft prep season It's what you said it is It's like how hard am I going How early am I going to go after starting pitching

How hard am I going to go after starting pitching Yeah, and then how about this? Hitting is deeper than pitching. And you guys tell me if you disagree or agree. Hitting is deeper than pitching. So if you're going to stress over anything on draft day, it should probably be pitching. And you should take advantage of the depth that's available at certain positions, certain hitting positions. I think you can look at it either way.

You can either look at it and say the lack of depth that starting pitcher makes me want to invest in starting pitcher. Or you could say that the fact that there's 12 good pitchers and then everyone else is kind of the same guy. could make you say that it's worth investing in those top guys skipping out on the middle class and just going with the dart. See, that's the way I feel about hitting, though. I feel like there are about 25 hitters who stand out, and then the rest are basically all the same. Now, you get into categories,

league, some contribute differently in different categories, and so you have to give some mind to that. But I like Scooter Jeanette, basically as much as I like Jonathan's scope and they're getting drafted 15 rounds apart and that's just one example there are plenty of examples

in the current offensive environment where you know record number of players are hitting 20 home runs every year there's just so much interchangeability beyond those you know couple dozen truly elite hitters as I talked about in my article that you were wanting to talk about in this segment

I don't know how much deeper hitter is than pitcher if you are taking a strategy in a certain format where you don't need five or six or seven starting pitchers. Very true. Right. So that's like be a head-to-head categories or maybe even a roto league where you're going to have more relievers than what we used to do like even three or four years ago.

Just beat everybody at offense and then try to win three of the pitching categories. Okay. But yeah. So I guess I'd want to be a little bit more general, but it's good to also cater this to certain formats as well. I look at ADP and Brian Dozier. is like the most important player because I have like the Dozier line and that is where I think the hitters become less inspiring. Not to say that there aren't really good hitters after that.

They're going to be great hitters after that. You're going to get Bregman and Ben Intendi and Hoskins and stuff like that. But but it seems like the round two, round one, round two, and then like up to Brian Dozier for me anyway, hitters in round three, which would include Cody Bellinger, Josh Donaldson, George Springer, Corey Seeger and D. Gordon. Like those are the guys I feel like I really need to, like I really want. That sounds like a pretty good cutoff. I wouldn't include Justin Upton on the good side of that cutoff. No, no.

Gordon's only on the good side in category. Did I say Justin Upton? Yeah. Oh, definitely not him. The hitters I meant to say were... He's going ahead of Dozier? No, no. The hitters I meant to say were Bellinger, Springer, Springer, Donaldson,

Yeah, yeah. Seeger and Gordon. Definitely not Upton. Yep, that sounds like almost exactly where I draw the line. And basically, I've been at the, like, I want to... two hitters and one pitcher in the first three rounds, because that's where I see the big drop-off in-hitter. And pitchers, like, no, pitchers, actually,

that's a good point in the draft for pitchers, round three. That's where Carrasco, Severino, Verland, or de Gromp, like, if you're getting your number two pitcher in round four, and it's one of those guys, or Granky or Robbie Ray or Darvish or whatever, like that seems like a really good start to me. And I don't even know if categories or points or Roto matters. I'm trying to give a maybe oversimplification. I understand that.

Maybe this isn't helpful. But that's what if somebody came out to me on the street and say, hey, what would you do in fantasy baseball? I'd say two hitters, two pitchers with my first four picks is not a bad way to start. Yeah. I'd ask them what kind of league they were playing in. Yeah, but even like, like, should you start like that anyway? I would not respond to a train. I think what you're saying, Adam, is pretty much true across all formats this year.

That one particular point where, like, yeah, I, yeah. I want one or two of the top 16, sorry, I want two, basically, of the top 16 starting pitchers, regardless of what format I'm playing in, just because that drop-up is going to be as extreme in all of them. And hang on, Scott, I'll come right back to you. I want to, like, you know, further that point. Top 16, I think we maybe said top 17 starting pitchers, you want two of them. I said two hitters, two pitchers in the first four rounds. But if you think you can get one of those top 16 pitchers after round four, change your strategy.

Take Kenley Jansen, take another pitcher, take another hitter, whatever. Get that guy in round five. It's about where you think you can get that second potential ace. Yeah, and often in leagues of 10, 12 teams are fewer. The Robbie Ray's and Crits Archers will fall to round five. Sure. So, I mean, if you're at – I include them in that group. I understand not everybody would, but they are –

are in the top 16 for me at that group that I'm considering genuinely high-end pitchers. Now, Heath, what do you want to amend here? I think that this has mostly been a points league discussion. I approach all formats that way because then, like, I know that you might go RP heavy or whatever, but I definitely approach points in Roto that way where I want two out of the top 16 pitchers probably in the first five rounds. Head-head categories league would depend on the innings minimum. Right. In a roto league, I'm pretty happy if I take one pitcher in the first five rounds, and I may not take another one for another five rounds.

Yeah. I haven't gotten to that point, but that's interesting. Chris, you agree with that? Because in a rotisserie league, I can take, and I mentioned it specifically in the article, guys like Lance McCullors, Blake Snell, those high upside guys that I have questions about their innings. That's the format I want them in. and I want to build an offense that has as many stolen bases with the best average early I can get, and then I'll chase dongs later. It's not like innings are the only concern for those two in particular. Sure, but it's not like the top 18 don't have concerns either.

Well, but at least they're proven. Some of them are. McCullors and... I don't think Robbie Ray is more proven than Lance McCullors. Robbie Ray's best season featured him through... Robbie Ray's best season featured him throwing about 35 more innings than Lance McCuller's best season. Right, but I'm saying Lance McCullors hasn't been good in the other ways that Robbie Ray's been good. I don't think that's true.

Back-to-back years of the three-two ERA. Yeah, Robbie Ray outperformed his ERA last year. Robby Ray outperformed his peripherals. I don't want to. So Robbie Ray is kind of where we get hung up, and I think it's just because Scott is higher on Robbie Ray. But it's not just Robbie Ray. No, they all have risks. Look at Lance McCuller's ERN and whip last year.

They were not very good. Good. They weren't, okay. But they weren't very good. That is true. Last year, yes. Yeah, he's had... Robbie Ray had an awful season two years ago.

2017 is not the only year that happened. It's true. Okay, but it... I just don't know how you can say there's not a higher level of provenness there because it's actually happened. Right, but it's like 35 innings. And I think it depends on how much you ascribe

of Robbie Ray's success last year to luck. We all expect Ray to be a mid-3 ZRA guy this year. But Adams right. It's not about the sports. specific players. But when you look at, especially once you get outside of that top four at starting pitcher and even the top four, two of them are over 30. Klan Kershaw might have a serious back issue. Madison and Bomber is coming off shoulder surgery. Stephen Strasbourg's never healthy. No, Cindergarde missed the entire season. Carlos Carrasco has one season at this level. Louis Civarino

has one, like you can go down the entire list. And so this is why, yes, you want two aces, you want two top 15 pitchers, but you want two guys who are going to be top 15 pitchers at the end of the season. And it's really hard to say. I think the innings are the biggest determinant for that. And points leagues for sure. In every league. So I know what Chris is saying, and you make a good point, that pitching is unpredictable.

I would say that, like, you say Lance McCullors, who was the other guy you said, Heath? Like, so. Like, these are actually two of our favorites, right? Yeah. Yeah. I like them. I like them as like my fifth and sixth starters to break out. I don't want to have to rely on them.

I'd throw Rich Hill and Alex Wood in the same. All right, you've got to identify, but there aren't that many guys that you're taking late that really have the potential to join the elite pitchers. I strongly. There are a lot. I mean, this is definitely a team-crief team scam thing going on here. That's good. I think you guys are in the minority in terms of I only want one starting pitcher in the first five rounds. ADP shows most people.

are drafting more than one. That is also true. But I do like that we are giving different takes here. And I think, you know, that this kind of, we have, probably this is where team scam and team Heath, team Kreef, have become different is with starting pitcher approach. And Scott and I are definitely going to invest more in starting pitchers in any format. Even head to head categories. Well, head to head categories.

Like I said, I don't really like the whole RP thing. I think it's kind of cheap, but it's not. Like, I don't have any problem with people who do it. it. I just don't want to... I like having a regular... But to answer your question, I should probably be a little bit more R.P. Heavy than I was last year in my head-to-head categories league,

which I did well and didn't win, but I think I came in third. I will... I don't know, Heath. I'll still be more starting pitcher heavy than team Kreeh would be. But that is the format that, sure, you can get away with not investing in starting... I will also say, even if you don't want to go R.P. Heavy, or if your league has an inning... requirement that means you shouldn't go RP heavy, I still think in head-to-head categories

you should not invest as much in starting pitching early. Well, and maybe I don't understand your strategy very well. But I was under the impression... There's a link. No, no, no. I was under the impression that the strategy was more about making the, making, like, having mostly relievers, who you don't have to pay a lot for. but still having a couple starters, who you can rely on for good percentages,

but just having them in there so that you can occasionally win strikeouts and wins. In which case, obviously, I was assuming those starting pitchers, you'd want them to be high-end starters so that they wouldn't ruin the ERA and whip help that your relievers. I do want them to be high-end starters, but I'd rather take four or five shots later in the draft than spend two of my first five picks, because one of the most important parts of that strategy is being better than other teams in hitting categories. And that is why I want to take more hitters early on. If I take two starting pitchers early on, then I'm not getting an advantage really anywhere.

All right. So I think this really gets to the divergence we're having here is I don't believe in today's MLB. I don't believe there are mid to late round pitchers who can become high-end pitchers because I don't think any of those guys are going to be allowed to throw 200 days. It happens every year, though. It happened for Luis Severino last year. Did it? Did it? Did it?

You just keep saying that you have him as a top 15 pitcher. He was terrible in 2016. It doesn't happen nearly as often as he used to, and good luck picking the right guy. I mean, yeah, okay, so that's been Scott's. That's been Scott's point that it's harder to find those guys these days because of the inning's restrictions. and last year it was Severino and Ray and, you know, there were hitters that last year was Bellinger and Judge, too.

And that's a funny thing. Like, we can sit here and talk strategy. We could both be right. We could all be right. We could all be wrong. There are different ways to skin a cat. You could win categories leagues one way and win the other way. You know what I mean?

It's a personal preference thing. I think I kind of look at it. I don't, go ahead. I really think, like, I'm really convicted about this. Like, I really believe it's true. I really believe, like, Louis Severino was the one who came close to throwing 200 innings last year who had never done it before. But, like, if less pitchers are doing that, then you don't have to do that to get into the top 20. Yes, but the gap between number 15 and number 20 is so much bigger than it ever used to be.

The other thing, though, because he's top 20, that's not good enough. That's not good enough. Sorry, let me just make this point. Like, you might be right about that, Scott, but in a head-head categories league, it might not matter because the strategy is let's win ERA whip and saves, lose the other two pitching categories, but go three and two every week in pitching and have better hitting. And it just doesn't really matter, which is why it's not my favorite strategy. Yeah, that's fine if you want to do that strategy.

I'm just talking about pitching in general, like how we assess the position. And I just, the 200 inning guy, the 180 inning guy even is dying. They're going away. They're not happening anymore. And I feel like the only ones you can rely to do that. Our grandfathered in, maybe one or two guys will emerge every year, maybe, but it's not going to be like half a dozen guys, you know, six to ten guys like we used to be able to count on. Sure. And, okay, so obviously we see where everybody differs here.

That's fine. I think that one of the reasons why I consider hitting or pitching sort of shallower is that hitting is deeper. You know, that's the other part of this equation. It's just easier to find hitting off the waiver wire. When I started doing fantasy baseball like eight years ago, it was easier to find pitching. And up until, I don't know, three years ago, it was just you find pitching on the waiver wire. Now I find hitting on the waiver wire all the time. And that shapes my strategy as well.

You can find home runs and RBI on the waiver wire. It's a lot harder to find batting average runs and stolen bases on the waiver wire. Also a good point. And I think, and maybe this is wrong, but I think, Probably in a points league last year, three or four, maybe five of the top 20 starting pitchers you could have found on the waiver wire at some point last year? Okay, I could take a look at that. Three or four of the top 25? I mean, Irvin Santana.

Gio Gonzalez, Alex Wood, Robbie Ray, Drew Blerino, Jimmy Elson, Rich Hill. We could do that exercise with hitters, I'm sure, and find plenty. Rich Hill was a waiver wire pickup last year. Yes, yes. He was awful the first month of the season. People were dropping him, yes. Okay, but he was drafted. I had no comment on that particular.

Jimmy Nelson, Charlie Morgan. Richel was also not a top 25 starting pitcher last year. I mean, do we think of Gio Gonzalez and Irvin Santana as ACEs, though? I mean, they may have technically finished in the top 25, but they're not that good. And they weren't that good last year. That we think of them on the same level as like a Justin Verland. Both of them were really, really good last year. All right, let me ask you some questions.

Let's do this a little quicker here. What's the best position to wait on? I think it's outfield. Not in a five outfielder league. That scares me to death. I don't mind filling my last three outfield spots kind of late. But I agree, like, you don't want your first outfielder to be late or even second. I'm going to say second base.

Take advantage of the depth because late in the draft, there are a lot of good outfielder's you like, right? No? Yeah, there's a lot of good outfielers that could turn into good hitters and could be cut in April. All right, second base for Scott. Anyone else? I think it depends on what we mean by the term wait. Like, I like getting my shortstop in, like, the 80 range. So if that's waiting, then, yeah, I'll wait on shortstop.

I don't know if that's waiting. I think double-digit rounds is waiting, like 1-20 or later in draft. And you're not going to like this, but I'm going to say that I think it depends on the format. I'll say third base. Because I think in a head-to-head points league, waiting on closer a lot of times makes a lot. lot of sense. Only 24 of them are going to get drafted. Sure. But I don't have any interest in a categories or in a roto league to wait on closer. I'm probably more likely to wait on a starting pitcher in that format.

What's the best position to reach for? Catcher, if you can get one of the first three. Otherwise, catcher is the best position to wait on. Yeah, I don't know that I'm going to reach for Posey or contraris personally. It would basically be Sanchez. And I haven't actually done it before. So, I mean, I would still say shortstop. Like, in a 12-team league, there are not 12, more or less equivalent short-stops. And it's rare that you don't see that in most positions these days. I only like to draft players at good value, so I don't want to reach on anyone.

Okay, great. I mean, that's kind of the right answer. I'm sorry we're being so difficult here, but, like, you should not reach. Well, I don't agree. If you want to reach, reach on upside. See, like, I look at like, I look at like the Masahiro Tanaka, Garrett Cole, Aaron Nola, starting pitcher range. And if I have two pitchers at that point and those starting pitchers are on the board, and I don't take one of them as my third, I'm probably not going to like my pitching staff very much. So that's just one example of when I would maybe reach to get that tier of starting pitcher so I could feel better about my first three stars.

I think I like that three starters I feel comfortable with. Those guys are available in the fifth or sixth round, and I feel like maybe all three of the guys you just said could be aces this year. Right. Tanax is available in the eighth round. Right. We're talking, yeah, six to eighth round maybe, and guys with legit, you know, ace potential.

And then after that, there are some, but there aren't many that I like that much. So that's a case where I might reach, because I feel like there's a big tear drop at that point. Tear drop. Yeah, I mean, it just depends what you mean by reach. Is Corey Seeger in round three reach? Elvis Andrews in round six a reach. No.

Yeah. Well, then I guess you shouldn't reach. But that's like, I feel like I make those guys in those rounds a higher priority than maybe some people would. Fair enough. Yeah. Just because I feel like the teardrops coming in both cases. A player you have the most shares of. Man, if Adrian Beltray is actually as old as everyone thinks he is, all of my teams are going to suck.

They're not going to suck because you took him in the 12th round. That's right. Yeah, Adrian Baltray is 100% the answer for me. I might have like 80% exposure to him at this point. I'm just drafting him everywhere I can. Pete, Scott, most exposure? Probably, probably Whitmerfield. Because he's always, like, I don't invest in, you know, obviously you have to have third pick to invest in Tray Turner.

And I'm not one to invest in D. Gordon or Billy Hamilton. because I don't think they help in enough areas. So, when Maryfield is, like, my go-to steals guy, and I can usually get him in, like, round seven, maybe round six if it's a 15-team league. But even in points leagues, I mean, it's not like it's just steals for this guy.

Show power last year. He doesn't strike out very much. Like, he was the fifth-best second baseman on a per-game basis in points leagues also. So, I mean, I'm pretty much buying what I do, and it's not like you have to pay. for what he did last year because everyone's kind of discounting that. So I draft him pretty much everywhere.

I haven't actually put together my list yet, but I will have it by next week because I actually keep track of this usually. But for sure, I have a lot of Buster Posey. I've gotten him in the fifth and sixth round sometimes. I have quite a bit of Paul DeYoung. I have a lot of Oduble, Cody Allen. Okay. And Blake Snill. I think the guy that I've ended up with the most, it's been mostly mock drafts.

I've only done one real draft so far, I think, is Miguel Cabrera. And I feel the same way about Miguel Cabrera as Chris feels about Adrian Beltray. First of all, I think if you can get him in 91st overall now. I don't even think that's, I think if he's a total bust, that's not even sinking your team. He's going after Cespittus. He's going after Domingo Santana. I got him for $13, Miguel Cabrera in an auction. There are a lot of players where you have to.

to pay for the upside without paying for the downside, and I think we're about to talk about them based on the rundown. Miguel Cabrera, you're not paying for the downside there. Unless he could be just as bad as he was last year, in which case you're paying too much for the downside. But you can get away with having your eighth or ninth round pick being a buck. Right. It's not a huge deal.

At that point, you're not paying that much for the downside. Like, the downside is considerably priced in. I love it. I think he's a good value there, and I also, I think that kind of brings up a point. Maybe the position I said I thought you could wait on should have been first base. Yeah, yeah, definitely. I'm going to ask you the player you don't want under any circumstances. First, though, I have to read an email.

It's about Seatgeek. Okay, this is from Brett. This is an actual email from a few days ago. I started looking at the MLB site for tickets when I remembered your ad for Seatgeek. What a great app. I downloaded the app, and within minutes, I had two great seats to a game at Petco. My deal was rated in 8.6, but with the promo code, I saved the extra 20 bucks, so I felt it was more like an 8.78-3-2901.

I got tickets for the Angels game while I was on the phone with my friend who lives out there. It was that easy. As we chatted, I bought the tickets. Three tickets in the third row up center field for $45. Remember, he used the promo code Fantasy. I didn't even need the promo code there because it was so cheap on Seekek. I'll definitely be using this app in the future. I mean, there's like a non-zero chance.

Great email, Brett. Thank you very much. All of you. Download the Seekek app and use the promo code fantasy. $20. off your first Seat Geek purchase. It's going to search multiple sites. It's going to find the best deals and help you make smart decisions.

I use Seat Geek. Brett use Seat Geek. We all use and love Seatgeek. Join us and use the promo code, Fantasy, on Seatgeek. Who are the players you don't want under any circumstance? I reject the question on the premise. Can we not be pedantic on one of these questions? Just answer what he means.

Thank you. Which is which player do you not want at the price you have to pay to drive? Oh, the majority of... The Jose Barrios and Domingo Santana for me. They're both going in the eighth round. It just... I think you're paying for close to 100% of the upside without considering any of the downside at that price.

Thank you, Chris. Scott Heath, players you don't want under any circumstances? I'm looking at ADP now. I'm not ADP boys, so... I will say that I do not under any... circumstance want to draft Marcus Stroman at 130th is he the answer. We'll move on to Scott.

In points I would draft Marcus Stroman at 130th, so I disagree with that. AJ Pollock. Okay, I like that. I like that. Scott? So there are obviously a lot of players I wouldn't want to draft at the price they're going at. A guy who I would have a very hard time seeing myself draft under any reasonable circumstance, I think it would be

I think it would be Steven Sousa Yeah Because he's already kind of a bad hitter Who just does one thing really well And one I guess another thing kind of well But I'm worried he's going to do nothing well And I know

I guess the argument Against that was well he was already playing in a bad park I just have this fear that Chase Field with the humidor Is going to be worse than anything We've ever seen That is within the range of possibilities The math says it could be the worst baseball park That we have seen

I would like to amend my answer and add Eric Cosmer He is going 70 picks ahead of Matt Carpenter 70 picks ahead of Carlos Santana A full round ahead of Miguel Cabrera No way, no hell Gotcha All right I think that that's Pretty good strategy talk.

Is there any closer news that you guys have for me? The most recent potential shakeups there, I think, are the Cardinals and the Angels. And there's not anything super concrete in either scenario. John, is it Mozelic? Is that how you say it? The Cardinals president of baseball operations? I'm not sure. Yeah.

It looks like Mozeliac, but I don't think that's how you say it. Anyway, he did a radio interview recently where he was asked who would be the Cardinals closer if the season started today. And he said something to the effect of because Gregerson's injured, right? Probably Dominic Leon. So, you know, a lot of news aggregation sites out there just kind of took the second half of that statement without considering the first. I mean, there's a real chance Gregerson will be healthy by opening day. But at the very least, that tells us who the fallback option is if he isn't. and then the other one is

Cam Bedrosian according to John Heyman is thought to be the frontrunner for the Angels and not Blake Parker like we were all suspecting. So again that's still thought to be the front runner isn't you know isn't carving it in stone by any means

but I've moved him ahead of Blake Parker in my rankings. And as I brought up yesterday in my risers, there are some people that think Nate Jones is ahead of Soria Oh yeah, it's on a closure job. A good one. How important is closer to you guys? It's something you need. It's not something I invest a lot in because there's so much turnover there.

And like on the one hand, you can say, well, that's all the more reason to invest in Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen because those guys are ones who have shown they're not going to lose the job and are so much better than anything else their teams could go with. but on the other hand, like you can use the turnover to your advantage by just not investing a lot and counting on new options to emerge, even if the ones you draft don't pan out. Yeah, I've been planning and I might try to do something where I look at the average draft position of closers over the last five years, let's say, and see how many of them actually keep their job because I would guess, I would guess the number's probably as high as half, maybe even higher.

of guys that we think will be closers on opening day or guys that we're drafting to be closers, lose the job at some point. But that number is probably, it's not in perfect alignment with ADP, but if you look at closers that people, quote, unquote, wait on after the 12th round, it's probably closer to 75%. Sure.

And if you look at guys going before the 12th round, it's probably closer to 25%. Who are we really confident and won't lose their jobs this year? I, like, obviously it's varying degrees all the way down, but Jansen and Kimberl are the only ones I can say I'm really confident. Rysel Oglacius. He could get traded and lose his job. Like, Corey Canable is the number four closer being drafted right now.

We think he's an elite closer. He was last season. But his career didn't start last season. He was pretty good in the minors, but his strike out rate was never what it was last season. He had three partial seasons before last season where he was pretty mediocre. He had a four ERA and 10 strikeouts. per nine. If he just returns to being a very good strikeout pitcher rather than one of the two best in the entire league, he walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of fly balls in a really bad

park. He could lose his job by the end of April and I would not be surprised. There was a time John Axford was Corey Kineppel. Oh, look at these guy, these brilliant ratios, he's becoming a stud closer and then he serves up a grand slam to Ramon Hernandez, whoever it was on opening day, and nobody ever thinks of him that way. And lots of, lots of, lots of, of relief pitchers put up one good year and fall off the map, which is Cori Canable, Felipe Rivera, guys that very well could not be good. I also feel confident Cody Allen's not going to lose his job, and Wade Davis is not going to lose his job.

I'm just going to make a bold prediction. Cody Allen finally gets like 38 or more saves. Yeah. There's no reason why it hasn't happened. It's just the weirdest, flukiest thing, he gets 31 saves or so every year, and there's no rhyme or reason for it. They just gave Wade Davis like $30 million. He's not going to lose his job.

And he's good. And I understand I may be being overly pedantic by saying this, but I could certainly envision a scenario where Cody Allen loses his job. I was halfway predicting it going into last year. I mean, he's one of the few closers who we can say for sure isn't the best reliever in his pen. Now, I'm not predicting he'll lose his job, but like, I don't know that there's more than 80% confidence on any of those guys other than the top two. And the other thing to keep in mind is that closers aren't that much less susceptible to injury than starters.

Okay, then. Let's talk about some injuries and some spring training storylines, and I do want to read some emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. We have good ones today. So I'll try to go through these quickly. Jacob de Grom will start the second game of the season for the Mets. He's fine. Scott Service, the Mariners manager, said he might limit Robinson Canoe to the 140 to 145 game range.

and Canoe is currently out five to seven days with a hamstring strain. So I saw that in the New York Post. Kind of interesting. They're thinking less is more for Canoe, fewer games, maybe better production. But this is a guy who plays like 155 games basically every year.

If he's at 140 to 145, I was almost going to say Canoe in the, who's the player you just don't draft under any circumstance discussion? He would have to be like a 10-draft- But I drafted him once this year, so I can't say it. We see a ball, but if that's actually the truth, then he's going to play 140. 40 to 145 games, I'm not sure he should be ranked ahead of Ian Hap.

It doesn't necessarily mean it's true, though. You're right. The managers say these things all the time, but I thought I'd bring it up that he did say that about Canoe. Catcher, Stephen Vote for the Brewers would not be ready for opening day. We had an email about Mani Pena. Do you guys like Mani Pena? I mean, as the second catcher, I think he's being undervalued. There is some, you know, in a catcher context, there's some offensive potential there.

And it looked like he was the favorite to start even when it wasn't clear, whether vote would be ready or not. So, yeah, he's in my top 24. And, you know, I'd rather have him than somebody like John Goems or Jason Castro or Francisco Cerville. Sure. Okay. Yvonne Nova is going to start opening day for Pittsburgh. Brandon Finnegan has left biceps tightness.

It's not believed to be serious. Troy Tulowiceki will begin the season on the DL due to a bone spur in his heel. John Gibbons said that Toulouewicz is the shortstop when he's healthy. Javier Baez is nearing a return from a hamstring injury. A couple days ago, we were asked about players we would draft and put on our DL. I don't know if we said Michael Brantley, but I imagine he's one of them. Yeah, sure, if he's not ready, yeah. Yeah, if he's not ready.

It sounds like a question still. And same with Mitch Hanager. He's dealing with a sore hand. Might not be ready for opening day. I think he hit his first home run yesterday of spring. Oh, did he? Okay, my apologies. I think I remember seeing that, too, yeah.

Ryan Braun hit two run home runs yesterday. Let's talk about some... Matt Carpenter did home run his first yesterday. Oh, Verlander. Yeah. All right, let's talk about some storylines. Spring training storylines here. Just picture notes first.

Justin Verlander has one walk in 21 strikeouts. Madison Bumgarner has one walk in 22 strikeouts. Verlander had a 196 ERA after the All-Star break, and he's a guy who has had kind of higher ERAs than you might think, because he often struggles for half a season, and then he's absolutely unbelievable. He also has had higher Phipps than you would think. I think last year it was like 37-38.

So, you know, not necessarily. He gives up a lot of fly balls. I've heard some speculate, and it may not be totally off-base, that he, that's kind of by design, that he takes it easy early on because he wants to be at his best for the playoffs because fortunately he's been in a position

where almost every year of his career, he could feel pretty good about going to the playoffs and certainly now with Astros. So that, like, that's a little seat of doubt for Verlander. Like Chris was saying earlier, there's a seat of doubt for every pitcher beyond the top four. And that's what it is for Verlander.

Okay. Garrett Cole had a great start the other day. He has 15 strikeouts and 12 and 2 thirds. And there's a guy that we're hoping the Astros sort of help him reinvent himself. And we see the strikeout potential from Garrett Cole. So good start the other day. And I think I think AJ Hinch said, you know, he likes that Garrett Cole kind of thinks out there. He uses his brain on the mound.

It doesn't just throw. It was nice to see James Paxson bounce back. He still has a 1032 ERA this spring. But four and two thirds, two runs, one walk, seven. strikeouts against the Giants a couple days ago or yesterday actually. Yeah. His velocity's concerns were more concerning to me than Grankies. He just had the good sense not to voice the most fundamental level of concern to the media.

But hey, the velocity's back for him, too. So that's good. Julio Taran, Adam Wainwright, and Matt Shoemaker have done some good things this spring. Julio Taran, Adam Wainwright, Matt Shoemaker. Do you have interest in any of them? I think Julio Taran is probably being overlooked in the later rounds. He obviously doesn't have the upside that we once thought he did, but there's a little bit of Jeff Samarja in him.

I was going to say he could be a poor man, Marcus Stroman. Sure, yeah. A lot of innings, decent, like seventh pitcher on your staff. There's nothing wrong with that. If I remember correctly, he was terrible at home. So hopefully that first year in SunTrust, look at the splits right now, Julio Tehran had a 586 ERA at home and 314 on the road. So hopefully he can get that fixed.

Getting rid of Matt Kemp should help. Any, well, Matt Kemp can't field the ball when it's in the stands, right? Any other pitcher notes you want to talk about, or shall we move on to hitters? Let's move on to hitters. Let's move on to hitters. Well, you know, he was my player I loved on Valentine's Day. He was the darling of spring training last year. He is a dud right now.

Greg Byrd. I can't say I'm not a little concerned. The Yankees don't seem concerned, but he does not have an extra base hit. He's batting 161. 297 on base, which is good for a 161 average, but no extra base hits and 31 at bats. Yikes. Anybody worried about Greg Bird or just a spring training slump?

I don't know that I'd go as far as to say I'm worried. I'm obviously not getting excited about him like I was last spring. Well, we all remember how last spring's performance was predictive of what happened. Oh, no, you cannot use that on Greg Bird. He got hurt, he got hurt like the second to last day of spring training. It was not healthy all year. And actually had much further damage in his ankle than we realized was he had to get surgery. So I reject that Greg Bird claim.

I'm not worried about Greg Bird because I haven't drafted him. No, I have. It's 31 at bats. And it's cool that he has 12 walks. So, you know, I would not say stock down for him. No, he has six. He has six. Oh, okay.

Sorry, I was looking last year. Last spring, sorry. Yeah, six walks, 11 strikeouts, which is good, but last year it was 12 walks, 10 strikeouts. He does strike out a lot. And he didn't do that in the minors. He has so far in the majors. That's the concern, I think.

He might not make enough contact. But it is worth noting that after he got back from surgery last year, he struck out only like 20% of the time. So, you know, the season, the part of the year where we weren't saying the injury ruined him, he was not a high strikeout guy. Ryan Braun hit his first two home runs of spring training yesterday. He's having a really nice spring. I mean, those were the first two home runs, but batting average is great. Just a matter of playing time with him and Santana.

The Lionel de Shields, we talked about him, but it looks like he's going to be the center fielder and leadoff hitter for the Rangers, and he is batting 353. and he walks a decent amount, right? He's a good on base guy. He's a good on base guy. Yeah, three steals so far for the shields. Wilson Ramos off to a terrible start. But two walks, three strikeouts, that's a good sign. But any concerns about Ramos?

He's a guy that we like his value at catcher. None at all. And then, yeah, I mean, just to give you a perspective, Mookiee Betts has a 594 OPS right now, so I know we're not worried about him. Jesse Winker has a 1031 OPS. Scott, you mentioned Winker yesterday. or two days ago as a late round.

Oh, the prospects we were talking about yesterday. Yeah, yeah, just yesterday. And this should help him be a big part of that outfield rotation they're planning in Cincinnati. I feel like he has the upside, particularly with the way his power kind of returned to him once he reached the majors and obviously hit a friendly environment, small park.

If you can count on him to be like a 20-homer guy, I have a hard time believing he's not the Red's second best hitter already. Okay. So that's Jesse Winker. And last hitter that I thought was interesting, I've mentioned him several times, but I guess I'm starting to lose a little faith in Yoan Moncada. It's just not doing anything. But seven walks, 12 strikeouts, that's encouraging.

But batting 222 with a 333 slugging, that's not encouraging. And we haven't seen much from Moncada, guys. What's your take on him right now? Like it's probably meaningless. but there gets to a point where for a player who has done precious little at the Major League level, like you want to see something at some point, right? I actually have moved him down a little at second base, in part because I've come to grips with how much I like other second baseman,

like Ian Hap and have moved them ahead of Moncada. But, I mean, there's still obvious breakout potential. I wouldn't say Moncada is a guy I'm not drafting under any circumstances. Okay. So some emails will finish the show with the listeners here. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. This is Nick from Cornwall, New York. Dear non-zero chance.

In a league other than CBS, Chris Taylor has shortstop eligibility. How might this change Scott and Heath's rankings? Would it be crazy to draft Chris Taylor in the ninth round pick 100 or so of a 12-team categories redraft league? I don't know that it's crazy to draft in there anyway. It sounds a couple rounds too early. but Chris Taylor is a player who, like, you can count on him stealing between 15 and 20 bases, you know, provided he's good enough that he keeps his job

and plays every day and all that. He bats at the top of the Dodgers lineup. He's, and he's so versatile, even before you factor in the possibility of shortstop eligibility. He's a player I find myself targeting a lot in the middle rounds, especially in rhodo leagues. Yeah, I don't know that there is. a big enough difference for me between second base and shortstop that I would move him up quite that far.

I've got him at 138 right now. But it's not, if you like him, go take him there. Would you guys, if Chris Taylor were shortstop eligible, would you take him over D.D. Gagorius? I think I would. Yeah, I think so. But I'm not super high on D.D. I'm taking him over D.D. Gregorius now. Okay. All right.

This is Paul. Paul has a different take on our Roto strategy. I love the podcast, but as a 28-year veteran of rotissory baseball, I have to take issue with your stand in the March 7th podcast that hitters are more valuable than pitchers in traditional roto because there are 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting spots. The sheer number of players on both sides make sense when you are talking about head-to-head points leagues, but not roto. Both pitching and hitting have five categories in roto and in the final tally at the end of the year, all categories are equal. So in a 10-team league, pitching is worth a potential 50 points, hitting is worth a six. same potential 50 points. And in reality, since you get the possible 50 hitting points from 14 hitters and the

possible 50 pitching points from only nine pitchers, each individual pitcher is actually more valuable than the individual hitters. You have much less room for error with pitchers. And if you factor in that only a fraction of your pitchers will contribute to one whole category, whereas every batter can contribute to every category, then those pitchers are even more valuable in Roto. That kind of contradicts itself. because you're like those pitchers who can only contribute in four categories can only contribute in four categories.

I like this first point though that because you're starting fewer pitchers, those pitchers need to be more impactful. And it's a reason why I ranked, I know last year I ranked Clayton Kershaw higher and Roto than points because of that reason. But, you know, I if we're like, I think part of what he's missing in the, hitters are more valuable than pitchers in this format because there are more line-up spots to fill and maybe we have didn't phrase it very well maybe on that particular podcast but there's going to be a clearer scarcity right among the hitters than there is the pitchers because they're they're spread thinner yeah it's it's it's also that fungibility and that and that uh volatility that starting pitcher like

looking back at the end of the season yes each individual starting pitcher may be more valuable or to the team that wins. But based on draft capital that you have to spend, you're still investing in risky assets. And so that's where it comes in. It's easier to get away with not drafting a lot of pitching early than it is to do it with hitting. You know what's funny is like I feel like maybe that whole strategy discussion we had

Maybe the most important thing for me when I'm drafting is the waiver wire. What I anticipate I'll be able to get on the waiver wire. And I guess that's the difference between the roto leagues and the shallower leagues. I just don't think I can get the same type of hitting. I know I can't get the same type of hitting on the waiver wire. That's a very good point. Right? Very, yeah.

And I don't think we've, like in how many years have we done this podcast? I don't think we've dived into it that much. But, yeah, like, I mean, another example of that, and it's the most extreme example, is like in LAL only leagues, like really, really deep leagues. I love the boring players in those leagues, and I want to go anywhere near them in a mixed league because you can count on big fines off the waiver wire in mixed leagues and you can't, like, you're not going to get anything of value

and a league up to certain depth. And so to turn the discussion a little bit to valuation, just I have my Pocoda spreadsheet open, so I'll just use that one. they have 19 pitchers projected to contribute at least 10 standing points in 2018. They have 86 hitters. So we can talk about, you know, pitchers might be more scarce, and maybe that's a reason to go get the higher end pitchers,

but there's just not that many impactful pitchers. Okay, Ben says, I'm in a one catcher head-to-head categories league with daily moves, considering taking two catchers on the same team to get more plate appearances than everyone else out of the catcher slot. Perhaps the Braves, what are your thoughts? I don't necessarily dislike this strategy, but it's really, really dependent on how many bench spots you have. Because in a head-to-head categories league with daily moves, Adam, you've talked about it. You want to get more, like you are more into the heavy reliever strategy here,

and then you just are streaming, starting pitchers with good matchups. And so you're going to want to use a lot of bench spots on starting pitchers. So it's just, like, if you only have five bench spots, I'm probably not doing this. I do want to have at least one utility type hitter that I can move into the lineup that's eligible in the outfield and maybe one in field position. But if I have seven plus bench spots, then I think it's a good strategy. It also depends on, like, the brave catchers were the best in baseball last year in terms of hitting. Does anybody think Kurt Zuzuki and Tyler Flowers are going to be? going to do that again?

Definitely not. I would do it with the Dodgers, because they're still both related to you. Reggie from Charlotte. I've been watching spring training stats for stolen bases and opportunities. The Rockies, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Cubs are running more this spring than they did in 2017. Rockies, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Cubs. None of those teams had 20 Steels guy last year. Who has the best shot at 20 plus steals in 2018?

I guess he's asking from the Rockies, Phillies, and Cubs. Cesar Hernandez, Oduba Herrera for the Phillies, Charlie Blackman on the Rockman. Rockies and that's probably Ian Desmond. Oh, Ian Desmond, yeah. Blue Jays, I don't... I mean, David Dahl, if he gets up early enough has that kind of potential.

I don't know if the Rockies have anybody. Yeah. Well, just Kevin Pilar, maybe. It's steal 20. Tay Oscar Hernandez, if he's up early enough, could steal 20. And then the Cubs, we've seen Jason Hayward do it. Ian Hap has run

in the majors, but I don't think any of those. those guys. I don't think anybody in their line has... 20 pounds. Yeah. I don't think anybody in the Cubs lineup has 20 steel potential. It seems to go against what they would think philosophically, too. I did see something from Bud Black early this spring, though, Rocky's manager about how he wants them to be in a team that runs. So, of those teams, I would look for the spring tendencies to carry most over most for the Rockies.

I mean, that'd be huge for Charlie Blackman. He does have like a 40 steel season under his bell, right? So just give me like 25 and you'd be perhaps worthy of the third overall pick, maybe fourth in Roto. Yeah, probably. All right, I'm going to read one more email. I'm going to save a lot of emails for tomorrow. We'll do an ADP review and a mailbag show tomorrow. But Mike says if it's statistically averaging up to the mean after poor production, there's a word for it and it isn't positive regression.

It's progression. No, it's not. He's wrong. This is just like, I get it. And maybe we're communicators professionally. That's what our job is. And if we confuse people by saying positive regression, I don't know how you could. Just say regression. But like.

Take the positive part out. It's right. Like, it is correct to say regression. But why is it not correct to say progression? Because it's regression to the mean. Because in the discussion of regression to the mean, whether it's good or bad is irrelevant. Right, but I do think that you guys should maybe change it

because people don't necessarily know what the mean is. I am not the person that came up with regression to the mean. I don't have the power to change the meaning of this thing. Like I said, we could, our job is to communicate. If people are not understanding what we're saying, then maybe we should change that. But we've also established what we mean by regression. If we switch now, there's just as much a chance

that we're going to confuse people. Like, we're having this discussion. I think the biggest thing is being understood. So, like, and language is constantly evolving, irregardless as a word now. You know, these things, these things change. They don't happen just because one person decides it's going to happen. But if enough people get confused about the way regression is applied in this case, then eventually will, the English language will adjust to...

But progression already has a meaning, and it's... different from this. But regression has a meaning. A return to a former... Yes, regression has the meaning that we're using. A return to a former or less developed state. When you say regression, people think bad. Former. Former. Former. Or less developed. It definitely has a negative connotation. Of course. Yes. Outside of the mathematical context in which it's being used in this conversation. Most of the people listening aren't mathematicians. Like, we're not mathematician. So how would you like for us to incorrectly word this from now on? I don't care.

I think you've got to clarify with positive regression. Yes. I don't think you can just say, this guy's going to regress this year and assume everybody listening knows it means positively. 90% of the time, that is what we do. Okay, good. Well, 90% of the time, you are spot on. Yeah, he specifically asked us not to say it.

Oh, I know. I know. I'm disregarding that and having a broader conversation. Just do what Scott thinks. Yeah, and not what Mike thinks. Mike, great email, but you're wrong. And we're back tomorrow with some more draft prep for you on the fantasy baseball today. podcast. See you later.