Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/16 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: ADP Review; Favorite Late Picks

Episode Date: March 16, 2018

Getting ready to draft? We've got some underdrafted and overdrafted players you need to know about, including which players have very different ADPs in Yahoo or ESPN. Is Justin Turner going too early now (7:35)? Are people overlooking Matt Carpenter (10:38)? ... Make or Break players and when to draft them (24:55)! We discuss Noah Syndergaard, Josh Donaldson, a trio of 3B (28:55), David Price and more ... Who do we look for late in drafts (38:30)? And how do our strategies change in AL-Only and NL-Only leagues (45:30)? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We get ready for a weekend of fantasy baseball drafting. It's pretty important right now to take a look at average draft position or ADP, as we call it in the biz. So let's do that. We've got some underdrafted, overdrafted players. I am Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Scott White, and we are expecting ADP boy Chris Towers to join us later. And happy Friday, guys. Are you excited for St. Patrick's Day? Well, before I get excited for St. Patrick's Day, I'd like to wish everyone out there a happy 3-6-6-6-1.

What is that? Adam, Azer. What is 316? We'll just wait for all of the emails to tell you what 316 is. Is it bad? No, it's not bad at all. Okay. I don't know what it is either, Adam.

Is it the Bible verse? There is a Bible verse 316. There's actually a lot of them. There's one really famous one. But no, that is not what 316 is for. All right, fair enough. I mean, look, I didn't understand why Wednesday. was Pye Day until like 10 p.m.

And I was like, oh, 3-1-4. Okay, I get it. So I'll figure it out eventually. Let's get right to it, guys. We want to talk about ADP. I want to talk about J.Rie's Familia, who's back to pitching. I want to talk about some make-or-break players and when you're comfortable taking them. Guys like Noah Cindergarde, Rafael Devers, David Price, Ronald Ocuna, players like that.

If we have time, we'll try to talk AL-only and NL-only today. And some favorite late-round picks. Got a lot plan. go average draft position review what scott why don't you kick it off you just wrote a story about players who you think are going too late they're undervalued in drafts and they have a favorable adps you can take advantage of that so uh kick it off what do you want to talk about well as part of this process you know you have to set limits when you're writing these things or else you're writing for days at a time on one piece and that obviously doesn't work uh when you're trying to make money on

content. So I had to limit it to 12, even though my initial list was probably like 40 players long. So understand these aren't the only ones. And understand also, these are not, like I was trying to differentiate it from my sleepers and breakouts list. These are not necessarily players I'm excited about or are making a priority. They're just ones that I consistently see going later than I think they should, and I'm happy to take advantage of it at times. So, Um, one of the biggest is Jay Bruce, who I know you and I, Adam, end up drafting a lot because of this, because it just seems weird that he's so often there in round 11 and 12 when, like, he's a very reliable source of 30 home runs and 100 RBI with a batting average that won't kill you. And like, he, I feel like he's the, I feel like he is the safest bet to carry those.

categories once you get past the elite players. Like if you're in the middle rounds there and you feel like you don't have quite enough home runs or RBI, like Jay Bruce is the guy for you because he's very safe and he's going to be good in those categories. And Jay Bruce is one of those players. I may be more predisposed to think about it this way because of the article I've been working on for later today. But he is one of those players that it greatly depends where what site you are drafted.

on as far as whether he is a good value or not. He is one of my favorite values on Yahoo. I pick 162. He's there in the 14th round. That's awesome. On CBS, he's at the end of the 10th round. Yeah, 120 and Roto 130 in head-to-head. I still think that's good value.

Because the way I see it, like, how much really separates Jay Bruce from Chris Davis? I mean, Chris Davis should go ahead of him. K.R.R. Davis, we're talking. Seven home runs. But Jay Bruce is probably going to have the higher batting average by at least 10 points. Probably going to – RBI-run production is probably going to be very similar. Like, there are about six rounds difference in ADP-5-6 rounds difference. And I'm just not sure they deserve to be that different.

Yes, Chris Davis, I'd take him ahead. But there's some clear similarities there. Yep. Chris Davis with a K was number 11 in points, number 13 in Roto last year. number 15 points, number 10 in Roto. So top 15, you know, between 10 and 15, two straight years. Bruce was between 17th and 20th, depending on the format, two straight years. So that's a top 20 outfielder two years in a row, including one year with the Mets, if you're worried about the ballpark.

One of a Mets. Half years with the Mets, right? Oh, no. No, it was two partial seasons with the Mets. He got traded both years. Okay, so fair enough. Anyway, yeah, it's two straight years with at least 33 home runs and $99. RBI's for J. Bruce. All right, so that's one.

Give me one more, Scott. One more underdrafted player. I will go with let's let's go with Brett Gardner. Oh, okay. Actually another player that I'm writing about. I may need to read more of

Scott's article before that I put mine together. Yeah, Brett Gardner like, it's 170 and fantasy pros consensus. is 193 CBS head-to-head, 182 in Roto. We're more concerned about Roto with Brett Gardner

because we're always concerned about steals for Brett Gardner. And we're always concerned about steals in Roto. And Brett Gardner's a consistent source of 20 plus steals. I understand he's 34 now and last year he set a career high in homers, and it was the most steals he had in four years. And he's probably not going to quite reach those numbers again. But he's also a consistent 350 on-base guy who is going to be batting leadoff

for what we are all assuming is going to be the best offense in baseball and maybe the best offense we've seen in a long time directly ahead of judge, just a couple spots ahead of Stanton. If he's healthy and he continues to reach base that the rate he always has, he's going to be among the league leaders and runs scored.

You know? He's the 50th outfielder being drafted in fantasy pros. I see some risks with Gardner because I think he might sit against lefties, if not all lefties, but that's when they're going to spell him. I've seen some talk of that, yeah. Yeah, because he was terrible against lefties last year. Aaron Hicks was great against lefties.

If they can get Stanton or Judge to play a competent left field, it makes sense because Gardner's kind of old. But even if he sits against lefties, he's the 50th outfield. They're off the board in Fantasy Pro's ADP. That's incredible. He was top 20 last year. So there's a lot of run scoring potential. There's, you know, I don't expect him to do the home run steel combo he had last. last year, but 15 to 20, 15 home runs 20 steals seems like a very reasonable expectation.

And you definitely want that at that stage of a roto draft. Heath, give me a few players that you're looking at, either undervalued or overvalued. I'll go with an overvalued that we spent a lot of earlier in the preseason talking about how it seemed like he was undervalued, and the pendulum may have swung too far, and it's Justin Turner. He is a fifth round pick on a majority, or at least half of the sites on. on fantasy pros. His overall ADP on fantasy pros, 65th, but he's a fifth round pick on ESPN, Yahoo, and at the 5-6 turn on CBS. I just, what you're expecting, if you think he's going, it deserves to be a fifth round pick, is that, A, he stays healthy for the second time in his career, and B, last year,

which was an outlier in terms of production, was the real Justin Turner. He's always been good. I'm not trying to say Justin Turner's not good, but last year was the first year that he was really phenomenal on a per game basis. Who's the next third baseman off the board, though? Is it Devers? Let me take a little. It is Travis Shaw. Okay. And when does he go?

When do those guys go? It's a pretty big drop, right? Oh, yeah. Travis Shaw has not, has an ADP of 91st. It's higher on CBS. I thank you guys for making that happen. But it's 91st on Fantasy Pros. Devers is 99th. I would personally rather have both of them than Turner, but I can understand the argument for Turner over them,

Like you rank them ahead of them? Like even equal value, do you rather have those two? I'd rather have those two than Turner, yes. And like, I know that Scott disagrees, but Scott would you rather have Sean Devers 25 to 30 picks later than Justin Turner? I don't want Justin Turner in Route 5. But I'd go as early as round 6, ideally round 7 for him. So, I mean, the thing is I'm probably skipping over, Sean.

If I don't get Justin Turner at a price I like, And I do have him as the last player in a tier above Shaw and Devers. I'm probably skipping over Shaw and Devers. Yeah, I'm happy to go. Like, if I miss out on what I consider a borderline elite third baseman, I'm fine going with like Kyle Seeger or a guy I have on my under-drafted list, Adrian Belterrey. Yep. I was just about to say those two names.

Exactly. If you're not loving the third base value, you don't feel like you're reaching for someone. you don't want to take that guy, then Beltray and Seeger are just great fallback options. Okay, Heath, give me another. I'll give you the overdrafts today. Scott can do the underdrafts. We'll do two, two, two, whatever until I feel like we're done.

Heath, give me another overdrafted guy. I'm trying to find guys that I don't like harp on all the time. Like at first base, there are so many good first basemen that are going late right now, including Santana, Carpenter, and Miggie. We talked about him. Eric Cosmer is going so far ahead of all of them. Only 10 spots ahead of Cabrera, but everyone else is going like 60 spots ahead of.

There's just no way you should pay a sixth or seventh round pick for Eric Cosmer if Carlos Santana is going to be available in the 13th. Okay, so Justin Turner, Eric Cosmer, a little overdrafted for Heath, Brett Gardner and Jay Bruce, a little underdrafted for Scott. And Scott also had Matt Carpenter on his underdrafted list, so that's a guy who's going 148th overall in fantasy pros, and Scott, where's Matt Carpenter going in CBS ADP right now? It's pretty close to Fantasy Pro.

A little higher, actually. 144 CBS Roto. It's only four spots, four spots higher than Fantasy Pros. And then in Head-to-head. Head-to-head is where I think he's the most undervalued. Well, wait, hold on. Just so everybody knows. Head-to-head points.

Yeah. Not categories, points. He's 135 in head-to-head points. That seems like 50 picks too low. Yeah, he's so much better in that format. He's great on. And like you said in your article, I'll let people read it. But basically, it's like we've seen the downside of Matt Carpenter lately, not the upside, not even the normal expectation.

Am I the only one that would rather have Carpenter and Santana in Poins than Hosmer? No, I would. I would rather have Santana, I think. Oh, but you know what? We never talked about this, Heath. Matt Carpenter said he's going to change his approach this year. Yeah, I did send you a link. He is done selling his soul for home.

home runs, I believe, was his quote. He's tired. He's not a 240 hitter. That's not ever going to happen again. He's going to get on base a lot more. He's going to hit a lot more doubles. If he hits 20 home runs, that's fine with him. Yeah.

And that would be fine with me, too, if he hits 300. Like, I feel like, you know, in a points league context, I don't think it matters that much because, you know, he wants to get back to who he was in 2013, his breakout season. And what was his most impactful year in fantasy? And he hit 55 doubles that season. Like, he was a stud in point. leagues. But I think even in Roto leagues, like that version of Carpenter in today's environment, if he's

healthy, will probably hit 20 home runs. And if the batting average is 290, 300, like if he's genuine batting average help, I feel like that is more useful in today's environment than another 260 hitting 30 homer guy. Right. Right. All right, Scott, give me one or two more underdraft. players. Okay.

Let's go with a pitcher here. One that I know Heath isn't going to like. So Lance Lynn, I think, is being underdrafted. We did talk about him a lot the other day. But we're into it now. Lance Lynn. Outside of the top 200, everywhere you look, as low as 240 in CBS, Roto. And I feel like people are kind of outsmarting themselves here because basically you're

just looking at the FIPP last year, 4-82, and saying, oh, he got lucky. And he probably did. But the batted ball profile against Lantlin was basically like it always is. What really went wrong for him last year was career worst walk rate, career worst home run rate. It was his first year back from Tommy John's surgery. And the main thing that you worry about in a pitcher's first year back from Tommy John's surgery is less than ideal commands. and I think that would be reflected in those two rates more than anything else. He also had a career worse strikeout rate.

He did, but it's such an aberration considering, like, his stuff and the bad of ball. He looked like the same pitcher, just with different results in those three areas that are measured by fit. Well, like, strikeouts and walks are two of the things we think pitchers control the most. It wasn't that he looked the same and the results were different. He was, the things that he controlled were different. But the thing is, like, if he was getting drafted at face value, I could understand taking a negative stance on him. But, like, you're getting him in the round 20 and beyond range,

a pitcher who consistently goes six plus innings in an environment where so few do, one who historically has been an above-average strikeout pitcher, good for 180Ks plus a year. Normally his FIPP is in the mid-to-low threes. So, like, second year back from Tommy John's surgery, if he's back to the Lansselin we've always known, this is a great value. Do you consider Alex Cobb in his second year back

or his third year back from Tommy John surgery? He threw 22 innings in 2016, and then had a 366, as Alex Cobb were talking about. 366 ERA, I think there's some parallels here to draw to Lance Lynn because his strikeout rate was way down, 6.4Ks per 9, and it's been two years in a row, but one of those years was 22 innings pitch recovering from Tommy Jr. No, I don't count the 22 innings season.

and his first full year back. And that's a good point. I honestly had forgotten. I know Alex Cobbs had his share of health issues. I forgot that was one of them. Yeah, and he's going later than Lynn, but like 235th overall Alex Cobb. We still have free agent.

63rd pitcher off the board. I mean, I don't even know if that's great value. But I feel like he's going to go undrafted in a lot of leagues. So first of all, we need him to sign. That'd be nice. Yeah, you don't need to worry about Cobb. Forget it. But what's interesting about Lynn is like he's part of a group

that all might. be moving up in the rankings. Beginning with SP 55 and then the next four, right? It's Cole Hamels, Mike Clevenger, Lance Lynn, and Blake Snell. And now, like, if Lynn is underdrafted, then Snell is obviously underdrafted, too, 213th overall. Yep, he's on my breakouts list. But, like, those guys are good.

And Clevenger, I think, is really underdrafted, but he's going up since the announcement that he's going to be in the rotation. And we're still kind of interested in Cole Hamels? I wasn't until I heard about him introducing a slider in the aim of getting more strikeouts this spring. So, I mean, that's exactly what you want to hear based on the way he was trending. And it may not be enough.

Like, I don't think it's common for a pitcher to just want to throw a slider and start throwing a great one. But, like, Cole Hamels, he has the kind of... The kind of track record that earns him the benefit of the doubt in those areas. And I think another problem I have with Lynn and being underdrafted is just like 10 of the next 15 pitchers I'd rather have than him. Who are some of them? Blake Snell. It's a fair.

Denelson Lemette. Tanner Roark. Lucas Geelito. Tanner Roark's on here too. No, I would rather have Len than, I would rather have Len than Gialito. Sean Minaya. Yeah, I'd rather, like, Mania was a candidate to be on this. So there's like a range of a lot of underdrafted pictures here.

Keep going. Probably Jordan Montgomery. No. I don't know. No, I definitely read out of Lentzlin was last year. And he's pitching on a lot more wins. He was a lot better than Lynn on a per inning basis. But, I mean, like, Lynn has a really established track record.

And the question is... Oh, hi, Chris. Hey, 80B boy. The question is, how well did Lantlin actually pitch last year? Wait, wait. Yeah, we've already got. Yeah, wait, right. Right, but like the established track record.

I've said the thing you're getting ready to say. But the established track record thing doesn't really add up there. Well, what is it? Doesn't it matter that? Like, he was a different pitcher last year. Sort of. All the batted ball, the batta ball profile was almost identical to every other year of his career. And I think the main thing was he just didn't have his usual command in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, which is very common.

Yeah, I mean. And he's still like, like, I don't know that it's all. all luck that his ERA was a point in a half lower than his FIP. Like, that may be... Okay, guys, we got to move on. That may be a sign that he was good at working around his deficiencies. Last ADP thing here, Chris, give me one or two players that are being drafted too early. Closers generally, I think, especially the elite ones.

Kenley Jansen is 39th overall in ADP. I get that he's the best closer in baseball, but... a third round pick on a closer, really? That's too much. Yeah. Cori Canable, I'll throw in that category as well. And to go with someone that most of these guys we've talked a lot about, but Domingo Santana, elite Babbit, elite home run to fly ball rate with just pretty good batted ball data.

Like the line drive rate is exceptional, but the hard hit rate, the, the average exit velocity are just good. They're not like top five in baseball. He does play at Miller Parker. Sure. And if you think he's going to sustain a 30% home run to fly ball ratio, maybe, but nobody does that. Like John Carlos Stanton doesn't even have a 30% home run to fly ball ratio for his career.

And so... So you're saying there may be more potential. This is a guy who doesn't hit a lot of fly balls. and if he regresses to even like the 80th percentile in Babbip and home run to fly ball rate, you're probably looking at a 230, 2.40 hitter with 20 home runs. And last year was a big outlier and stolen bases too. And we don't know where the hell this guy's going to play right now. Yeah.

Because Ryan Braun doesn't seem to want to play first base. Yeah. And he's, after initially saying the only positions he was going to play this year, left field in first base, Bronn, that is. Craig counsel has now open to the idea of him playing right field suddenly because he's not comfortable of first base. And Domingo Santana has been drafted 86th right now. If I was writing this article Chris wrote, like Domingo Santana would be the headline player of it because I'm total like even I'm not as fearful of the regression concerns, but I certainly understand the argument. And I just think playing time concerns are not getting nearly enough credit in his ADP.

All right, guys. Well, you know, it's not getting nearly enough credit because it's still a little bit new. Is CBS Sports HQ? New way to get the latest scores, news and highlights for fantasy baseball or right now March Madness. And all your favorite sports, it's CBS Sports HQ. This is brand new 24-7 streaming sports info. It's always on and it is completely free. All you have to do is download the app.

You can get the CBS Sports app or you can get HQ on your connected devices like Apple TV, Roku, on your phone, on your computer, whatever. is cbsports.com or cbsportshq.com if you want to give it a shot but i've been watching on my roku and anybody who watches uh you know anybody who's cutting the cord or just has a connected device get cbs sports hq it's so cool um and it's really professional like great stuff i'm just very proud of everybody who has anything to do with it over there in fort lauderdale good job guys uh yes so cbs sports hq i've been reading a lot of haikus they are very funny thank you for them you can keep sending them in i'll probably pick our contest winners uh midweek next week next week But we have two Mondays until the Points League draft, two Wednesdays until the For the People League draft.

News and notes, Jay Reese Familia pitched after a week off. That's nice to see. What percentage of Metsaves do you think J.Ries Familia will get? I believe he will get 85% of the Metsaves. Since Scott dropped his number from the top of the podcast, I'll increase my little bit. I will say 60%. All right. We're meeting in the middle.

Okay. 84.3. You have to look at the ERA for Familia last year, 438, but I will point out, I said this, I think, on the RP preview or whatever, but it's been a while. His last appearance before going on the DL, and his first appearance off the DL were terrible. Other than that, he had a pretty nice year. Two terrible outings can really influence a reliever's ERA. He only had 24 and two-thirds innings. Okay, and he was top five in 2016.

He was top two in 2015. That's J.R. is familiar. Okay, what else we got? Zach Granky may not be ready for opening day. We talked about him yesterday. Are you downgrading Zach Granky right now? Nope. Not yet, but I'm going to stick by what I said.

If he misses his next start in spring training, I will bump him down on the way. He's going to. They've already pretty much said that he's not going to make his typical between start throwing session. Opening day is not looking likely, but again, this seems like a Marcus Schroeman thing, or a Jacob de Grom thing.

Jacob de Grom is not ready for opening day. But he's ready for the second game. He's pitching on the second. But that seems to be, from the way that both the Blue Jays and the Diamondbacks have been talking about those injuries, that it could be a situation like that where they're ready.

You know, Zach Granky played catch yesterday, a day after the injury. I don't think it's a big deal. All right. So Scott's got Granky fifth in both formats, points in Roto. Heath has Granky sixth in points and ninth in Roto. But you're still not taking like Verlander, Severino, Carrasco over him?

Personally, I'm not. Like, I feel like it's such a fine line that I can, like, I don't care if somebody does. I'm not going to try and talk you out of it. But what I don't want to see happen is Granky fall to like round seven or something stupid. No, and I'm not talking about moving him that low, but I may drop him behind some of those types of guys just because I don't think there's a huge difference. And I'll take the one that's not currently battling something. Oakland's starting pitcher

Jarrell Codin has a strained UCL and could need surgery and Mark Trumbo was out at least three to four weeks with a quad strain. Is that open the door for Austin Hayes? Yeah, I mean the Colby

Rasmus signing probably was what was going to push him out of the everyday lineup, right? I don't think it was a foregone conclusion because it was only a minor league deal. But Colby Rasmus has been fine this spring and Austin Hayes had that injury that kept him from playing for weeks. And the little bit he has played,

it's not like he set the world on fire. So I think, I just think for prudence's sake, they're going to send them to the minors regardless of who's healthy and who's not. Okay, then. Let's talk about some make or break players. I interpret them as maker break players. Maybe you guys don't.

You tell me if I'm, you know, insane. I think Noah Sindigard could be a make or break player. He's going 31st overall, so round 3. and I just want to take a look at where he's going amongst starting pitchers. Cinderguard is seventh, ahead of Carasco, Severino, and Verlander, behind the Big Four and Bumgarner and Strasbourg. When do you feel comfortable taking Noah's Cindergarde? Cindergarde and Strasbourg, both for me, does depend on format.

I am willing, this ADP seems pretty much fine for either of them in a Roto League. In a points league, it's probably not going to be part of my strategy. I would rather have Grinky, Verlander, those types of guys, and so I'm probably not going to get Cindergarde. But I wouldn't take them until the fourth in a points league. The fourth round in a points, okay. Anybody? Seems reasonable enough to me.

Yeah. All right then. How about Josh Donaldson? Same range, 29th overall, just before the Dozier line, which we have a funny nickname for a little bit later. Do you think he's a make or break player, first of all? And when do you feel comfortable taking Josh Donnell?

Yeah, I don't know that there's a lot of breaking Josh Donaldson at that range. I think it's mostly make. And I'm kind of embarrassed. I feel like I overstated my concern over the injury on the last podcast because it doesn't sound like it's a huge deal. Yeah, this just feels, and I'm not saying that he's going to miss time at the beginning of the year, but it does feel very familiar. Like it was not a big deal almost the entire spring training last year. Yeah, it just kept not being a big deal. break there is the fact that he's 32 years old and only played 113 games last year.

This is a little higher than I want to take him, but just because I do think he's a step behind the third baseman that go before this, and there are a lot of third baseman you can take later. Yeah. Well, okay, so Jose Ramirez is going to play at second base. Probably. Right. He did average the same points per game as Chris Bryant last year, Josh Donaldson. Yeah, in a bad year for him. If he eliminate the stretch where he was playing through the groin injury, he would blow Chris Bryan away.

Right. He was so good when he was right when he was right. Yeah. All right. I mean, it's a tough call. Would you take Gary Sanchez or Josh Donaldson? Gary Sanchez. Sanchez.

I guess Sanchez. Cody Bellinger or Josh Donaldson. Man, these are tough questions you're asking me today, Adam. Yes, yes. I guess Bellinger. All right. Anybody else? Donaldson, Bellinger?

Chris, Kreeh? I'm going to think Bellinger. Yeah, Donaldson. Okay. Miguel Cabrera, we talked about, I think he's a make-or-break player, 91st overall. We mentioned it yesterday.

Are we all in agreement there? That's, like, just amazing ADP. I mean, I left him off my underrated players, according to ADP list. Now, he was obviously in the much bigger group that I had to narrow it down from, but um well you're crazy scott i mean and that's the bottom long i'm just not super confident and like there's there's not much risk to taking them around eight around seven even but like if

it has to go any earlier than that like i'd rather be loading up at starting pitcher at that point than taking the gamble that uh Miguel Cabrera um was just kind of a fluke last year another player who it really depends on where you're playing. On CBS, he's at the end of the seventh round. That's fine, I think. He's going later than that on some sites. ESPN, he's an 11th round pick. There's no break there.

You take Miguel Cabrera in the 10th round on ESPN and you're set. On Yahoo, he's a sixth round pick. I took him like 96th in an ESPN draft, and I, yeah, there's very little downside there. Yeah, okay, so that's Miguel Cabrera. and then Rafael Devers, 100th overall, kind of talked about him with Travis Shaw going the same range.

Do you think Devers is a make or break player? Yeah, I don't see. And I know I'm probably not factoring in his youth and lack of experience, but with his profile, I just don't see like a disastrous season. Yeah, you know what's interesting? The thing is, like, where he's being drafted relative to other third basemen, And he has to improve to live up to that. Like, if he's not, he's, you know, not so different from Kyle Seeger in terms of overall production.

If he's just exactly the same as he was as a rookie. Right. I also, like, it's not the exact same caliber of prospect, but Michael Franco was a really high prospect. His early career number suggested that this was a guy who was going to make a lot of contact and hit for a lot of power. And he made a lot of contact. He never hit for power. Now, he was older, not really the same, but very good prospect. He was a very good prospect, but there's like, I don't know, six to 12 prospects every year

that are just in a different category from everybody else. And Devers hit 30 homeowner last year between three different levels. I mean, he's already, he has the power. Yes. Franco hit for power in his rookie season, right, in 80 games? I still believe, I still believe in Michael. Right, but Franco was one of those like top 50 range prospects that, Like, you could find plenty of scouting reports where people had serious doubts about them.

But then there's just, those don't exist for decades. I think the, I take Chris's point is good in that I couldn't really find a reason that a player that hit like Franco did in 2015 and a half a season as a rookie would have a disastrous season. I don't. And he was the number 17 prospect from baseball. I don't really believe that I understand why he hasn't been better. Like, it just seems stupid. And that's not to say. that Mike Rafael Devers is going to be him.

He's more talented, but it's just that he's 20, baseball's really hard. Yep. I can't disagree with that. Yeah, the only thing I'll say is, like, after Miss Indigard and Strasbourg, who Heath mentioned, and Josh Donaldson, going in the, you know, round 30th overall, like, all of these guys are past 90, so I don't even know if there is make or break here. These are more, like, high upside mid-round picks, because if they're busts in round eight or later, it's really not that big of a deal.

The question... Yeah. I do think Miguel Senow has. has the potential to not return any value on your investment. And you're still, you can afford a miss. You can afford, you know, Rafael Devers just being Kyle Seeger or something. I think Miguel Sino's floor is a lot lower than that. Because he's dealing with injuries right now, I think he has a bruised knee.

I think he's out on Friday in spring training. I don't know how serious it is, but he just continuously can't stay healthy, He couldn't stay healthy last year. And the profile itself has a ton of risk in it. Well, okay, you know, that came a little bit out of context because you're looking at the list. I have Miguel Sinoe on here. I actually have three third basemen in this make or break segment, and they're all between 100 and 116th overall, and they are Devers, Miguel Sano, and Nick Castiano.

And then, like, I even just wonder, okay, what if you get a Kyle Seeger season from Devers, whatever, and you get a crap season from Sano. Does it matter at 1001st overall if you get a total bust, someone that you're cutting in a month or two. I guess it would depend on how long you ride that player out. But if he plays a deep position, is there something to be said for just going for the supreme upside there? And if he bust, whatever, you play the waiver wire,

pick somebody else up, and you're probably adequate at third base. I mean, it depends on the depth of your league. It does. Like, if you're in a league where you can count on like E. E. E. E. Hanyoswara's being on waivers. Okay, yeah. maybe go for the upside. But like if it's going to be, it's going to be the real dregs, like,

I think that's too early for the, it doesn't matter. All right. Obviously, starting pitcher outfield, there are going to be, there's going to be tons of excess there. Players people don't even see coming. But like, with the infield positions, even though they seem deep on draft day, if you only draft one and it doesn't work out, like, you're kind of having to thread the needle to fill that spot. One guy I forgot in ADP is Daniel Murphy, by the way, and he's going, like 60, let me see, where are you, Daniel Murphy, 68th overall.

How do you feel about that? Too high, I think. I don't, yeah. I mean, that's definitely a make or break player, but I don't think the risk of him missing like half the season has been discussed enough. Yeah, there was, I feel like Scott read an article that the rest of us didn't read.

Because I don't think that the consensus for the nationals or the consensus around baseball is that Daniel Murphy could miss half the season. There was apparently an article that said that. Not that specifically, just that the timetable for this recovery is six to nine months. This is from Dr. Mike Tanner, who I've mentioned. He writes for fan tracks, obviously, in the medical profession. The normal timetable for a recovery from this is six to nine months. And based on where Murphy is in his rehabilitation, it seems.

like he's more on the nine-month track than the six-month track. And obviously, there's a fair amount of assumption happening in that, but it's from somebody who knows more about this than any of us do. And, like, there's not a lot of concrete timetables being offered by the Nationals. Just maybe he'll be ready for opening day. Like, that's all they've really said. Right, they've not ruled him out. He has done fielding work.

He has hit. he has hit basically using just his upper body, though, is what I read. I just read an article right now that I sent to you that Murphy is running with his full body weight now, though he is still using treadmills as far as anyone has seen. He's not going to be ready for opening day. That seems pretty clear. It seems obvious, but like there's not a lot of, there's not a lot of intelligent analysis happening apart from Dr. Mike Tanner when it comes. to Daniel Murphy, there's just a lot of conjecture.

All right, so last guy then is David Price. He's going 106 overall. He pitched yesterday. He pitched well. It looked good. Could definitely be a make type of player here. Absolutely, yeah. What do you think?

When would you take David Price? This range seems fine because it's not like the other pitchers being drafted in this range or any other range. Don't have tons of risk factors themselves. At this point, you're drafting him at the same time as Jose Burrios and is Trevor Bauer going in this range? Maybe. Let me take a look. You're the ADP boy.

So he's being drafted in the same range as Jake Arieta, Jose Burrios, John Lester, Alex Wood, Kyle Hendricks. Like, Kyle Hendricks is probably the safest of that group, but everybody has glaring red flags. Alex Wood's velocity fell off the map in the second half of the season when he stopped pitching well. So he's risky, but he has, I think, more upside than anybody else in that group. Okay, yeah, so David Price is the 28th pitcher off the board. I just been used to seeing him going like the seventh round in our drafts. Well, that's where he goes on CBS. He's an 80th overall on CBS.

I don't know that I want to draft in there. Well, here's the thing, because he made his spring debut yesterday. I don't know if you mentioned that, Adam. Yeah, I did. One hit and four innings with five strikeouts. I mean, just looked awesome. Yeah. You want to know my prediction?

You tell me how you feel about this. I feel like he's going to be really good until he isn't. I feel like he's going to be really good until his elbow gives out where he runs out of gas or something. I'm going to look to sell high on David Price, I think. I don't trust him to get through the season. I mean, at least the beat right error, this was for the Red Sox official team site, did say the elbow is 100% healthy, like for whatever that's worth.

Well, then that's 100-something overall is pretty damn good for David Price. The elbow's probably not 100% healthy, but it's probably not what it was last year. It's Irvin Santana, probably. Well, like, nobody's elbow is 100% healthy, but it's probably no worse than Masahiro Tanakas. You know? Look, I'm probably the low guy on price.

I have a lot of injury concerns, and I would happily take him 106th overall. I mean, but not 80th. His 80p on ESPN is 141. That's where you go get him. Like, what is happening at ESPN? Who are, what are people drafting on ESPN? Kenley Janssen, apparently, in the first round.

Relievers and third baseman. They are going, like Josh Donald, or Nick Cassiano's, I think, is going 90th. Yeah, Kenley Jens is going 33rd. Actually, his ADP is basically the same as it is on our site, but it's, oh, no. Same on other sites. We're the low people on Kenley Jansen, but we got that email that said, I just got two emails that said something about ESPN suggesting Jansen in the first round in a points league. I don't know what the format is, so it could be just different scoring.

It could be. All right then. So let's talk about some favorite late round picks. Get people ready for their drafts with some of your favorite late round picks, guys. I can go through ADP and read names and you can tell me who you like, or you can just tell me off the cuff who you like. You tell me who you like. Late round picks, what do you got? Oh, I thought you were leading this segment, Scott.

Oh, was I? That's what the note said. Really? Yeah. How late? Let's define the age. I think we should look at people being drafted after Pick 200. Blake's now.

I think tops my list. Yeah. If that's considered late rounds, sure. He's up there. I mean, Mike Clevenger is still technically. I don't know if that's going to continue to play out that way for long. Those are two pitchers, like, if I can get those. guys is my fifth and sixth starters.

I feel like I'm thrilled. 100% on board with Delino DeShields. I mean, the thing is, Fantasy Pro's ADP is based almost entirely on Roto for all of these sites, and he's going 203rd in Roto Leagues. That's crazy town Danapans.

You do wonder if that's on the rise, kind of like Clevenger? You would assume so, yeah. But he's not going to go that high. He's still going to be a good value with Delano DeLi Shil. And he is actually the biggest value over at Yahoo. 258. Nice.

And Jose Parraza, in the same old. He's going 228 right now. Yasmani Grandal, Michael Brantley. Scooter Jeanette's somebody I try and get in every draft, just because I think the, I think the, I think his ADP is accounting for all of the risk and none of the reward. Chris, you mentioned Yasmani Grandal. Yes.

Maybe it is a legit concern to think that Austin Barnes is going to take over. we haven't had any indication of that, at least what they've been saying, but I know that Scott, Scott is kind of... It is going to be a split roll. I mean, they're... Right, but every catcher's a split roll.

He's being drafted. Most catchers are four out of five, at least, and I think it's going to be at most... Good catchers are four out of five, yes. But, like, there's a lot of catchers that people are going to draft in the 230 range or later. And I've seen him go even later. Oh, sure.

No, I'm... I'm not disputing the ADP. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Yeah, I'm not like, Yasmani Grundahl versus Brian McCann, whatever. You know, like, I don't, I could understand going Grundal there. Yeah, Grundahl was seventh and points, ninth and Roto last year, ninth and points, sixth in Roto in 2016. So it's a top, top 10 catcher, top nine catcher, two years in a row, and you're getting good value for him. Jason Kipnis is in Scott's story about undervalued.

He's going 223 overall. Seizor Hernandez is at 271 overall, basically not being drafted on some sites. Any type of points are OBP League. Honestly, I know he's not exciting, but Dexter Fowler should be owned in most leagues. I mean, he's going to lead off. Yeah, these are all people who, if they didn't make my list, they were cuts. I mean, the ones I just mentioned too, Brett Gardner. Ahmed Rosario is somebody I love drafting late in Roto League.

because he's a shortstop who the little bit of time we saw him in the majors last year, which is about a third of the season. It projects to like a 20 steel pace from a shortstop. Like just for that, I think he's worth a late round pick and roto. And obviously there's upside that he has the potential to be much better than that. You know which catcher I really like drafting late is Jorge Alfaro. I know the walk to strikeout ratio isn't great, but this guy could be a very good hitter for a guy.

catcher. Man, I'm seeing so many guys I like late. Michael Brantley, I know we like him. How about Gurriel? Are you still guys, he's going to start the year on the DL, but batting average is very tough to find late. Gueriel could hit 290. Yeah, I'm cool with that.

But like, I mean, obviously late round pick, if you're talking head-to-head lineup versus Roto, you know, that's the difference of eight or nine players per team. So it makes a difference there. But in a Roto League, five outfielder league, somebody like Cole Calhoun, I think, is not getting enough credit, considering he's going to be batting, you know, behind the trout Justin Upton duo. A lot of RBI potential in that spot, and they just lower the fence and right for him. So, you know, I think I could totally see a 25-homer 90-plus RBI season from Calhoun. And how about the number two prospect in baseball, or the number two hitting prospect at least? Victor Robles, who doesn't have a clear shot at playing time right now, but he could be a bad month of Michael Taylor away.

He could be Bryce Harper hurting his shoulder away from getting every day at bats. And this is a guy with a ton of stolen base potential who's going, I think, outside the top 300 right now. I got one more name. What do you think about this strategy? Draft Brad Brock, 207th overall. and then draft Zach Britton with like your last pick, put him on your DL and see what happens. It wouldn't surprise me if Brock is the closer.

I don't know what the hell to expect from Zach Brayden. How can you like just expect him to come back and regain the closer's role and be good? Yeah, I don't really. Right. So I think Brad Brock could be very good value at 206. Anybody else feel that or now? Like it seems it seems like it's hard to worry about what's going to happen to Brad Brock when, like Chris yesterday estimated over the course of,

the season half closers lose their jobs. I think it's actually higher than that. And so, like, it's hard to worry, oh, Brad Brock might lose the closer role at the end of May. Well, so many of the other closers you're drafting might too, and a lot of them will. And, yeah, I feel better about Brad Brock than I do like the Blake Trinan and Shane Green tier of relievers.

And for that same reason, I really like Calvin Herrera. He's not quite 200. He's 180. but I think something to keep in mind with relievers is like I think we're overreacting to a kind of mediocre Kelvin Herrera season in a way that like it's still we think of relief pitchers having an entire season and that's a lot of that data it's 70 innings like we wouldn't dramatically change our opinions about starting pitchers based on 70 innings it's not like there's not really any reason to think that 70 innings for a relief pitcher is more predictive than it

would be for 70 innings for a starter. And so my favorite relievers to draft are the ones coming off bad seasons who have a strong tracker. Okay, guys, let's see, we can go a few ways with this here. I do want to read some emails. People are kind enough to write in with their emails, so I'd like to read them. I wanted to get to some A-L-only and-al-only stuff. Here's what you need to know about N-L-only.

Middle infield is awful, especially shortstop. Oh, my gosh. Corey Seeger, as a first-round pick, wouldn't be crazy because Trevor, you're story is the next best shortstop, right? I mean, it's just awful. Do you think if you have a A-L-only or N-L-only Roto League, does it make sense to have more relief pitchers on your staff? Because, like, you just, there aren't enough good starting pitchers.

Yeah. I don't know that you necessarily need to draft that way because that's in leagues with virtually non-existent waiver wires, players that you, good, quality players that you can count on finding on waivers are middle relievers. And it's going to be a lot of guys we don't even see coming right now. I actually do focus on trying to get even more closers in league-specific. I think really good relievers are even more valuable in that format. Teams that have five or six starters have one or two terrible starters.

But you could win the category with two closers, Internet only or in a lot. You could win the saves category, yes. Yeah. Right. I don't know why you would want to pay up for save sources if you're just looking for them to patty. Well, I want good relievers.

Yeah, but why not get like Chad Green later than a guy who gets saves? Yeah. I'm okay with Chad Green too. But part of my point is who was Chad Green last year? Who was Tommy Canely last year? Who was the other Yankees reliever?

No, you're right. Anthony Swarzak. Part of the reason why I don't necessarily love chasing the guys that have been good for one year. Yeah. Anthony Swarzak's on the Mets, isn't he? I know. The Yankees don't have that good of a bullpen. There is another.

There's David Robertson, Delibatantis. I think that's... I was thinking of the other former White Sox guy then. Swarzac. Swarzak, yeah. Yeah. All right. Do you...

Like, I drafted Edwin and Carnacion, 25th overall on an AL-only league. the next two hitters off the board were Byron Buxton and Elvis Andrews. Do you, in an AL-only or N-L-only league, draft just like the best player, or do you have to worry about the position slash category scarcity? Oh, I think those are formats where you have to worry about position. I mean, maybe Chris will disagree because he's Mr. All positions are equal, but cut the player pool in half.

That can't be true anymore. No, I know that, but still. Some positions are deeper or shallow. in, like, first base isn't as deep in AL as it is an NL. No. Shortstop, as we said, an NL is really bad. Right, no, I get that. But I'm sorry, I keep talking over you, I apologize. But, like, Encarnacian is obviously, obviously deserves to be drafted ahead of Bucks and Andrews.

Well, right? No? Yeah, it's just, but in mixed leagues, it's an easy call. In an AL-only league, like, first base isn't as deep as it is in NL-L-only, but it's still deeper than, like, shortstop in AL only. So I can see taking Andrew's head of Encarnassio, and I didn't go that route, but, you know. But, I mean, first base is notably weaker in the AL. Like, that's, like, I'll put it this way.

Like, a player who I am prioritizing in the second round of an NL draft is Corey Seeger, and I'm prioritizing him on a way. I wouldn't in mixed leagues because there is such a huge drop off there. But still, it's second round. I'm paying appropriate value for him. I'm not reaching for him fifth overall. And then the AL player I'm doing that with is Jose Abraeu because I think there's a clear drop right after him at first base.

But still, second round is when I'm doing it. It's, you know, nothing crazy. Just you've got to be mindful of it in a way that you don't have to be as much in mixed leagues. Okay, and then let me ask you, no, let's do some emails. Let's finish the show with some emails. Fantasy Baseball at CBS.com. First, some haikus. All right, here we go.

Some of the, these are not the winners, but maybe one or two will be. But it's 3 a.m. My arm needs to be cut off. My name is Scott White. How is that not a winner? That could be a winner. That's a very good one. Yeah, that's good.

It's Adam or Heath. Neurotic nerd or the nips. Give me People League. I guess I'm a neurotic nerd. All right. I can deal with that. You can go ahead and take that one out of consideration for your league, it sounds like. Yes.

Adam's taste in song. He must not know right. from wrong, dude, gin blossom suck. That's mean. No, it's me. It's wrong, too. I don't think Chris approves of that. Fantasy's useless. That's what my wife said last night. I slept on the couch.

Wait, fantasy baseball is used? I don't know. Up to interpretation. Well, okay. I mean, that's come on. You got to fit in the syllable requirements, you've got to get a little poetic there. Give them a little poetic licensing. Totally. Scott, you would need the

the mixer effect for this one, but it's Ben Intendi Ben, Intendi, Travis Shaw, Travis Shaw. Yeah, that's good. The diehard listeners would get that one. Knee deep in spreadsheets speaks in abbreviations. It's ADP boy. Hello. Raisins really suck, but I still love the show.

Why? Quite simply, Heath Snips. And finally? Thank you. Oh, team name Tuesday. Adam loves you so dearly. Kreef says, take your L. And then a bonus team name for Adam to sing.

Quit playing gomes with Swyheart. That's good. Yeah, that's pretty good. Quit playing gomes with swyheart. That was not my favorite Backstreet Boys song. Thames. Why don't we go with Thames? Oh, quit playing Thames with Swyheart.

Yeah, that's better. Was that Backstreet Boys or was that in sync? Pretty sure that was Backstreet Boys. Yeah, no better than I would. Right, Chris? I'm almost positive. It's bad. It was BSB.

Thank you for asking Chris and not me. Okay, come on. Chris is the Youngen. All right, here's an email from Andrew. Yeah, it's BSB. I have also... Brian LaTrell popped up. What?

No. Okay. I have also adopted Brian Dozier as the cutoff of players, cutoff for players who are good versus players who are on the other side of good. I call it the MED Dozier line. Right? That's good.

The Dozer line. Okay. Meth Dojerline. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. All right. I just want to bring that up.

Now we have something to call it. All. Here's a real question. From Christian in Montreal. Hey, Fantasy, Clark, Bruce, Hal, and Barry. Those have got to be superheroes. Superhero. Yeah.

I was hoping you could discuss tiers as it relates to auction drafts. In particular, what is your philosophy on tiers, and do you wait for one of the players in multiple player tiers to go, thus setting the price? or do you try to be the tier price setter? So the fantasy baseball community had a, had a tiers discussion yesterday. Tears were shit. Yes.

Really? Yeah, on Twitter. Some people think tiers are the stupidest thing ever. I don't think that. But I think they're probably less useful in auctions than they are in drafts because auctions, first of all, if everybody agrees on the tier, then the first player is going to be the most expensive and the last player is going to be most expensive in theory. just you can screw yourself over that way.

I think tiers are more useful when you're going through a snake draft and you're saying, well, I think these two players are similar. I can pass on one and get the next one with my next pick. It doesn't have as much value in an auction where you should just have values for the players. The value I assign it in auctions and I don't think it's as useful in that as the draft. I mean, it's mainly for the draft. but I do think there's a definite danger

in waiting for what's obviously the last player in a tier and yeah it's not going to be consensus at every position for every tier who that last player is but sometimes you can tell and particularly if you have

like if you're waiting around for the best value and you know there's only one player left who would meet your expectations at that's position. Like everybody else probably did the same thing too, you know? And so that's where the, like you're waiting around for the best value,

but it really ends up being the worst value because everybody was doing the same as you were and the bidding goes up because there's not a fallback in that tier anymore. So that's mostly what I pay attention to. I don't think I said it very well, but hopefully you follow. Yeah, definitely. This is from Michael. Wouldn't we be pretty happy with Aaron Judge having a season like Nelson Cruz has had the last four seasons? Besides age and position, what's the real difference between Aaron Judge and Nelson Cruz?

I mean, Judge has more home run upside, for sure. Yeah, Nelson Cruz probably has a higher batting average floor. The thing for me, I don't know if we've talked about it enough with Aaron Judge, is unless something goes terribly wrong, he feels like one of the three or four surest bets to score 100 runs. And drive in 100 runs. And which should be mentioned, like, if you're playing in an OBP league, Judge is a guy who might be more valuable in an OBP than batting average, more so than any other hitter in baseball.

Sure. Like, if he goes in the first round of an OBP league, I wouldn't, I don't know that I'd do it, but actually I think I would. I think that's fair, because even if he does hit 240, you're probably still looking at a well above average batting on base percentage. And even in leagues that don't use OBP, that's why he thinks he's going to be such a high run score. I mean, it could be as much as a 30 or 40 run difference between him and Cruz. It's the worst case scenario if you're looking at it from the Cruz standpoint.

The position thing is the big deal. Because if Cruz were outfield eligible, I'd consider him in the third round. Well, he is outfield eligible on Yahoo, and he is going in a third round. Totally reasonable, right? Yeah. Yeah, because age is the only concern with Cruz. He's great every year. Chris from Portland, Oregon.

Who are the players you are highest on who you have not wound up with in any drafts this year? Mine are Aaron Nola any and a half. Side note, I know I called Scott out for the cereal milk thing and I have to do it again. Looking on eBay for a discontinued chip from 10 years ago, please tell me this wasn't recent. I would imagine they're very expired by now, but good luck. I hope you find what you're looking for. I didn't. And it's been a while since I've looked.

But they were really good. They were really good. What were that again? Favorite snacks, salsa-flavored Doritos. Not salsa-Verdé flavored because they've come out with those, too. Get out of here, salsa Verde. You suck. Salsa Verde.

Who are the players your highest? Half the bag in one sitting, which is probably good. It doesn't exist anymore. Highest non that you haven't wound up with in any drafts. I guess, like, we've slammed Domingo Santiana enough on this podcast that I would say, that he is probably one. I am closer to his ADP than it sounds like Chris and Scott are. He still goes before I'm willing to draft him.

But I like Domingo Santana a lot. And I think between Braun and Kane and everybody else in that rushed as though, if he's as good as he was, last year he'll play. I never seem to get Mike Trout. He's always gone by my pick. I don't know if I've drafted Trey Turr yet. Oh, my God. Here's David, David S.

Not David S. Pumpkins. Dear Stephen, Neil, and Carl. Those are famous astrophysicists. Yes. Very good. I really like the discussion you guys had on the last episode about trying to stop using terms like regression, which most listeners don't understand. I didn't look. I hoped you could expand on this.

And from now on, speak about batters with more common man phrases like, he hit good or throw strong a lot for pitchers instead of super complex ideas like batting average or earn run. What even is an average? This average listener surely doesn't know. In all seriousness, love the pod. That's funny. Good sarcastic email there from David. This does bring up a good point. ERA is a dumb stat.

And when people are like, war is a dumb made up stat. ERA is a dumb made up stat if you ever think about it for even a second. It's a dumb stat that doesn't make any sense. Oh my gosh, Chris. I don't have time. Yes.

I'm thinking about it for several seconds. I'm not sure. Chris, what are you talking? You're talking about divide by innings, multiply by nine thing? Well, and just like, what is an earned run? That's so clear what an earned run is. It's not. It's not at all.

It's ridiculous. It's a stupid stat. We can tell you what an earned run is and go over it later. I know what an earned run is, but it's not intuitive. It's not like if you just started watching baseball, you would think, like, no, I get this. This makes sense what an earned run is. You could argue that the only earned runs are runs from walks and home runs. No, I...

That wouldn't be that much less arbitrary. Okay, I get that earned run point. But, you know, dividing by non makes sense. War is so stupid, by the way. This is Austin from Santa Barbara. Hi, Heath, the only one who matters for this email. Oh, thank you, Austin. I read your article about different draft strategies for different leagues.

I'm in a head-to-head categories league that allows for daily lineup changes. and has a 10 innings minimum per week. I like your strategy of loading up on hitting, but I'm thinking about targeting quality starts, strikeouts, and saves, instead of your strategy of targeting saves, whip, and ERA. So I could draft, it seems like I could draft four or five mid-level closers and a bunch of mid-level starters,

as well as streaming starters throughout the week to load up on quality starts, Ks, and saves. I think it's awesome that Austin emailed us on 316 Day, and I really appreciate that. It's a wrestling thing, isn't it? It's a wrestling thing. But now you're going to open up a can of... No, Austin, I agree with you completely.

You can open up a can on this type of league as long as you are willing to try harder than most everyone else. The whole relief pitcher only or relief pitcher heavy strategy, I want to get a bunch of them in this type of league. I want to start four or five of them almost every day. But as long as you're willing to outwork everyone else, and I believe in you lost, and I think you can do it. Stream those pitchers.

Go win all the pitching categories. All right, next email is from Everisto. If I already have an elite first basement on my team, and I see another great elite first baseman in the next round, should I draft that second elite first baseman or skip it and fill out a different position? You have a utility spot or a corner infield spot, I assume? Yeah.

Then you should take the better player. We're talking about first rounds one and two here? No, but if elite players are on the board, I mean, it could be... Okay, yeah, I mean, if there's a difference between an elite player and a not-a-leap player, but if I'm, you know, if I drafted Goldschmidt in round one, I don't know that I'm passing up Jose Ramirez for Freddie Freeman. Like, I don't know that's the most realistic scenario how those...

But you get what I'm saying. Like, they're both elite players. Right. Yeah, right, exactly. Right. If you're going to take a second first baseman, I think that he has to be clearly better than the other positions that you're targeting. I'm disappointed that Chris didn't use his earn-run-run rant on Elite First Baseman.

I don't know what that means. It's every bit as arbitrary as what is an earned run. What's Elite? Well, I think it's based on establishing. Yeah, that was, I can't support that, Heath. That is not. That doesn't make any sense. All right, this is from BML.

Let's see. You talked about the head-to-head category strategy of using closers for pitching to win Whippy RA and saves. but I've also heard on the podcast that you shouldn't trade for closers in a dynasty league. Does the closer strategy still work for dynasty leagues? That's interesting. Yeah, you don't have to trade for them. Well, I mean, it would work this year,

but would it screw you the second year? Yeah, very few closers hold on to the job for a long enough time that... But they change mid-year. Like, those... These guys aren't losing their jobs to guys that are on other team's rosters. they are losing their jobs to guys that are on the waiver wire. So if you want to have a reliever-heavy pitching staff, you may just have to be a little more active on the waiver wire.

All right, that's kind of an interesting thought. Maybe I would be a little less inclined. Final one is from Matt. Aside from a bad OVP, why is nobody talking about Hobby or bias as a potential breakout? Everybody not on this podcast is. So why are not you guys? There are playing time concerns.

there are concerns about the skill set. He had the second highest swinging strike rate in baseball last season. He is arguably the most aggressive hitter in the league, and it doesn't always work. And it's just if he only gets 500 played appearances, which is not that unrealistic, he might, there's a ceiling on what he can do. And then you're looking at, does he have a bad season?

Then he's probably not playable. He's getting drafted like he is going to take another step forward, right? I mean, that's the biggest reason. Like, we're not, we're not talking about him as a breakout candidate because everybody's already already drafting him like he's going to. Well, if he just does what he did last year, he's probably not a terrible value. He certainly isn't points leagues, and I don't know how different the ADP is in those two. But he hit 273 with 23 homers and 10 steals last season, 75 rounds 75 RBI. If he does that again, he's probably worth.

But isn't his ADP like round 12? Like, yeah, yeah, but in a row, that's probably worth it. I don't know. I can do better. round 11 than that. Yeah, I'd say, yeah, maybe that's like a 15th round pick or something. Yeah, but round 11's early. Yeah, and I think that's it.

I mean, everybody's very high on him, and it just seems like projecting. And everybody was super high on him last year, too. And we said he would be a bust, and Javier Baez was, in fact, a bus last year. Plus, like, guys who do. He's on his going, Ray, yeah. Yeah, because, like, he would be a guy, Chris, that you wouldn't get the benefit of all his stats because you would be wondering, do I start him or sit him every single week. you know, because you don't know what his playing time's going to be.

That's, I think, another issue with a guy who doesn't play regularly. You don't know to put him in your lineup. I mean, if it's deep enough league, like an L-only league, and you're just going to start him every week, then that's a different story. But there's replacement level players on the waiver wire that might be better than him. There's a difference between Roto and head-to-head in this. He's probably not worth it in head-to-head. Points, yeah.

But last year, like... Well, maybe either way, because the lineups are so small. He was... He was a really good player last year in Roto. because he contributed at an above average rate in five different categories. There aren't a lot of guys who can do that. Now, he's not a star. 75, 75, that's nothing.

Yeah, I don't know that runs an RBI. I'd call above average. And the average for a player in a 14-teen, in a 14-player league is about 70. So he's slightly above-acted. 14 teams. But we're talking about 14-team. No, no, 14-player.

What do you mean? A standard roto lineup with 14-10. Okay, okay, okay. You're getting somewhere around 70 RBI from per spot. Okay, but, all right. I mean, that's interesting about because if he's going in round 11, you would expect him to outperform those numbers because the guys you're taking in round 20,

you would expect to underperform those 70s. I don't know. All right, whatever. We've got to go. Have a great weekend, everybody. Good luck drafting. We'll talk to you on Monday. Probably do a live mock draft on the air next week,

thinking maybe head-to-head categories. but we'll catch up on everything you need to know. Enjoy the weekend. See you later.