Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: ADP Movers; Spring Storylines

Episode Date: March 19, 2018

Who is moving up or down in average draft position? We'll cover that after we tell you what you may have missed over the weekend (1:00) including Shohei Ohtani's struggles (7:45). And we'll update you... on Zack Greinke, Marcus Stroman and more injured players (13:00) ... Taking a look at ADP after a busy weekend of drafting (18:40). NYM SPs are on the rise! Why are Corey Knebel and Roberto Osuna falling (24:00)? And find out the deep league targets (36:30) who are seeing changes in their ADP including Delino DeShields (38:30) which leads to an impromptu steals discussion ... We're discussing our 15-team roto league (48:36) to help our listeners who play in deep formats, and we're looking at the standout performers of Spring Training (53:00) ... Email us at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 He chooses Travis Shaw over anyone who's great. Even at a mazer trade, the other team's getting paid. And Easter Chris is most guys number threes. Have any of these dudes ever won the podcast lead? But they'll be there for you. You're safe. They'll be there about the brain. Happy Monday, everybody.
Starting point is 00:00:39 Welcome to the show. It is March 19th, and we are talking ADP, average draft position risers and followers. We're also going to catch you up on what you may have missed over the weekend. I am Adam Azor. He is Scott White. Hello, Scott White. Hey, Adam. And he is Heath Cummings.
Starting point is 00:00:53 Hello, Heath Cummings. Hi, Adam. And he's Chris Towers. What up, Chris? What's going on? Did Chris and Heath change bodies now? No. No.
Starting point is 00:01:04 Thankfully for Heath, no. All right, let's get right to it. What's the most important thing that happened over the first. weekend that people might not know about, but we are on top of because we cover fantasy baseball. It rolls off the tongue. Heath, what is it? Jorge Donged again. Jorge Soler, six home runs now in spring training. He's only striking out 25% of his plate appearances.
Starting point is 00:01:24 He's stolen two bases. He walked a bunch. Jorge Soler. I'm not going to say he's finally figured it out. He was awesome in AAA last year. He's had a very good spring. At the very least, I hope he's bought himself a month at the beginning of the season. Would you rather draft Jorge Soler or Randall Gritchick?
Starting point is 00:01:46 Yes. Yeah, I like both of them. I've drafted both of them a ton. I'd probably lean Gritchick. He's in a better environment. But I'll tell you, if I could only draft Shohei Otani as a hitter only, I'd rather have Soler. Okay. More on Shohei Otani in a bit.
Starting point is 00:02:04 He's one of the biggest fallers in ADP. Chris Towers, the most important thing that happened over the weekend that people might not know about, but we are on top of because we cover fantasy baseball. Tyler Glassnow is having a very good spring. Don't let the ERA fool you. He has a 32.8% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. He is fighting for a rotation spot and there is still, probably not elite fantasy upside, but there is Chris Archer upside there.
Starting point is 00:02:33 Tyler Glassnow, Pirates starting pitcher, four and two thirds, one run against the Red Sox on Sunday. does have that 803 aRA but five walks, 19 strikeouts, and 12 and third. It was really one bad outing. I think he gave up seven runs in like two in the third innings or something. But other than that, he's been very good. The walks have been down. And that's going to be the key for him.
Starting point is 00:02:53 He talked about this after yesterday's start. He needs to control the inside of the plate. And he actually thinks that his lack of command helps him in that regard because it can keep batters uncomfortable. And that's what happened yesterday. He was working inside. and that's a scary dude when he's working inside, effectively wild. I was, yep, I was about to say. When I was a scout, we used to call it effectively wild.
Starting point is 00:03:15 He's going, he's the 120 second pitcher off the board, Tyler Glass now. So, yeah, that's probably a guy that needs to go ahead of, like, Jaime Garcia, Jordan Zimmerman. Yeah. I'd say so. I don't know. Jordan Zimmerman is an opening day starter for a major league team. He is, but there's no point of drafting him. Draft Tyler Glass now with one of your last picks.
Starting point is 00:03:36 Scott White, the most important thing. that happened over the, you know what I'm going to say. What is it, Scott? So I've gone back and forth on Jose Martinez, pretty much all of this calendar year. But back on the upswing, because Matt Carpenter, despite some thought
Starting point is 00:03:55 that his early spring back issues would force the Cardinals to abandon the idea of playing him anywhere but first base, was already back playing both second and third base in Sunday's game. And meanwhile, Jose Martinez started at first, hit a big three-run homers, had a huge spring, struck out only three times all spring. And they're acknowledging it's going to be really hard to keep his bat out of the lineup. And Carpenter himself was saying, you know, it's probably going to be contingent on him.
Starting point is 00:04:28 Maybe Jed Jerko starts five out of seven games. Maybe Colton Wong starts five out of seven games. And then there's room for Jose Martinez to start five out of seven games as well. That actually doesn't add up because it's 15 games and 14. But I would think if Carpenter's willing, like Jerko and Wong, Jerko and Wong are worse hitters than Martinez. And from what I remember going into last year, the reason that they tried to just keep him at first base is Carpenter was not willing.
Starting point is 00:04:58 But maybe he'll change his tone now. Jose Martinez last year was the spring training superstar among them anyway. He had a 1248 OPS. he batted 380. He had twice as many walks of strikeouts, four homers. Martinez is 29 years old, and he had a 309 batting average with 14 home runs last year, and he just
Starting point is 00:05:16 destroyed lefties with like a 1,300 OPS against lefties. Yeah, that's going to be the easiest way, just sitting long against lefties and starting Martinez instead. But you know, Scott, I think the big story here is Carpenter and the eligibility that he could pick up.
Starting point is 00:05:33 Yeah, no, that's true. Yeah, so, like, Because it's such a deep position, Martinez is what, at this point? Like a waiver-wire guy? You're not drafting him in a mixed league, are you? I think in a five-out, because he's eligible in outfield, too. I think a five outfielder mixed league. He's rare, late-round batting average help.
Starting point is 00:05:51 I think very likely batting average help because his batting profile should make him, you know, he's like a potential batting title contender. Okay, so that's Jose Martinez. And then Carpenter would really be a nice boost if he could get. some second base eligibility, even third base, just to have the position flexibility, like we had last year with him. But we all think that he's a value at his current ADP just with first base eligibility. Yeah, which is what, like round 14 or something crazy?
Starting point is 00:06:21 Yeah. ADP boy? Depending where you're drafting. He's more favorably viewed on our site than most. Okay, actually, I have that ADP up. Matt Carpenter is 123rd overall on our website in Points Leagues, which is his better format, which is still, like, pretty good. Yeah, that's still way, like, for points league, that's way too low.
Starting point is 00:06:41 And 142nd overall in Roto on our website. I mean, if he's second base eligible, like, where would you take Matt Carpenter? I mean, he'd probably be, like, in a Roto league, he'd still be behind, like, Whitmerfield for me. But he'd be top. For reference, D.J. Lemayhew is 110 right now at second base. I think where it gets interesting with Carpenter is the Ozzy Albee's Daniel Murphy range And Canoe too
Starting point is 00:07:15 I feel like wouldn't we rather have Carpenter than Canoe? For sure. I heard, yeah. Cano is 74th right now, which he's a mover down, so is Daniel Murphy. Cano is 74th? No, he's a little lower than that, Chris. He's in the 80s now. I'm looking at Consensus ADP.
Starting point is 00:07:35 Oh, fantasy pros? Yeah. Okay. On our website, Cano is 91st in points and 87th in Roto. All right. And then the important thing that happened over the weekend that you probably do know about is this Shohei Otani thing. He's just having a bad spring.
Starting point is 00:07:49 And one of his former teammates from Japan, Anthony Bass, who's now on the Cubs, said Otani wasn't lights out in spring training when he played with him in Japan. And he thinks that once the bright lights come on or whatever, we'll see a different player. But, I mean, there's even some talk about Otani not making the team out of spring training and starting in the minors. He's not hitting well. He's not pitching well.
Starting point is 00:08:09 And he's one of the biggest draft day fallers right now. He's down 14 spots. He's 90th overall Otani in Roto. He is 82nd overall in points leagues. And pitchers are going really early in points leagues. But down 14 spots, and that's a big drop for a guy who's not injured. Where are you guys taking Shohei Otani right now? I cannot imagine drafting him.
Starting point is 00:08:31 Like, he's being drafted probably even after that drop, four or five rounds too high for me. Give me like an overall spot where you'd consider taking Shohei Otani. A hundred? No. 13th round? Oh, okay. Okay.
Starting point is 00:08:47 I mean, that's, like, if things keep trending this way, that does seem realistic that he could fall to that point. And, you know, like, there is a lot of excuse-making happening in Angels Camp right now from basically, you know, Mike Soshan down. and like it it may prove to be valid I mean Ichero there's there's the famous story about Ichiro Suzuki his first year over how like he would just kept hitting dribblers down the third baseline and
Starting point is 00:09:16 Lou Pinellas started to worry and so he asked if he could do anything else and he'd like the next pitch he hit a ball over the right field fence and it was just like all right this guy's fine I think like I don't think it's quite that situation, but like 23-year-old who was tip-top of his league, a league where players who are usually
Starting point is 00:09:39 the top of them are still very successful here. I don't know. I think it's easy to bury him and say bust already, but like, just wait and see. Like, there's still a lot of... But don't draft him where he's being directed. I think this is a necessary correction in his ADP, and if he keeps falling, then I'll be more likely to take him, but I was never going to take him where he was going. Yeah, I, in Roto, which I think is where I'm more interested, I had him at 150 overall before this weekend and before seeing the quotes that he may not start the year in the major leagues. The bigger concern, if you're drafting him in like a daily transaction league where you think you're going to get a bonus for having him as a hitter and a pitcher, I don't, MLB is not really that into doing things that no one has ever done before or no one has done in a really long time. and this was kind of a unique situation where a team, he said, I want to do both of these things.
Starting point is 00:10:33 I don't think it takes very long at all of him being bad at both before they want him to focus on one. Well, okay, so are we at the point where you take Luke Weaver, who's having a really good spring, is the 34th pitcher off the board over Chohay Otani. I'm not sure. Yeah, I may have had it would rank that way already. I'd have to double check, but yeah, I would. In a league? Yes, I would.
Starting point is 00:10:58 Trevor Bauer I think that's a good spot Definitely in points Definitely in points Not in Roto Johnny Quato Absolutely Yep
Starting point is 00:11:08 Jeff Samarja For sure I might hedge on that one That might be the breaking point for me Okay All right then That's some of the major Storylines over the weekend
Starting point is 00:11:21 We'll talk more about it later in the show We'll try to read your emails We have busy show today So I anticipate pushing a lot of it To tomorrow I want to try to talk about Our 15 Team Roto League I strongly recommend Heath wrote the article up that you go on the website and look at the 15-team Roto League because it was 30 rounds, right?
Starting point is 00:11:38 30 rounds, 15 teams, 450 total picks. 450 total picks. So if you play in deep leagues, like a shallow A-L-only, a shallow-N-O-only, or a deep mix league, there's going to be some useful stuff in this draft. It was a bunch of like industry writers, analysts. So, you know, I think it would be very helpful. I actually really enjoyed it, and maybe we'll talk more about it tomorrow, but we'll try to touch on a little bit today. But I just think if you go on the website and check it out, you'll get a lot of useful information if you play in deep leagues. This podcast has not done a good enough job for our deep league listeners.
Starting point is 00:12:12 My problem is most people don't play in deep league, so I don't want to do a whole episode that's going to be for like 10% of our audience, but I still need to cater to you a little bit, and I apologize. So we'll try to do that this week, but definitely on the website. Now, if you want some March Madness highlights, and oh my gosh, what a tournament this has been. And also great analysis, or you just want to get ready for the NFL draft or baseball season, the NBA playoffs. You got it all on CBS Sports HQ. It's part of my morning routine now. I turn on my Roku.
Starting point is 00:12:41 I start watching CBS Sports HQ. Just download the app on one of your connected devices. It's Roku, Amazon Fire. You know how it is. Any of those apps on the connected devices. It's a brand new 24-7 stream. streaming sports info channel, getting some great feedback from our listeners. It's always on and is completely free.
Starting point is 00:13:01 So it's CBS SportsHQ. You can actually check it out at CBS SportsHQ.com. Scores, news highlights, really smart analysis. And for me, it's basically what I missed from when I was growing up watching great sports shows. We've got that back now with CBS Sports HQ, so check it out. All right, your news and notes. Zach Granky will likely start the third game of the season, and Marcus Stroman plans to pitch on April 1st.
Starting point is 00:13:23 But to me, they're a little bit different, guys, because Stroman hasn't thrown a spring training pitch yet. Oh, yes, he did. He started against the Canadian junior national team over the week. Oh, okay, okay. Okay, okay, he didn't accumulate any stats on MLB.com then. I apologize. He didn't pitch against a major league team. But I don't know.
Starting point is 00:13:42 Do they feel a little bit there? Like, I'm a little more forgetting the fact that obviously Granky's better than Stroman. He's got, Granky has more spring training work, and Stroman had a arm injury. But that's only because Granky's injury came after he got a couple starts. Yeah, but they're on the same timetable. I feel like Granky's not going to miss as much time as Stroman did. Am I wrong? Are you guys doing them the same?
Starting point is 00:14:03 I think they're both going to make their first turn. They are, I know, but does it seem rushed for Granky or for Stroman, rather. If Granky had injured his groin in the first start and missed two weeks, he'd be at the exact same point. If Grinky hit, I think rather than the timetable or how much work Grinky's got in spring training, and the fact that Stroman's is a shoulder and Grinkies is a groin. Yeah. Makes me more worried about Stroman. Sure.
Starting point is 00:14:26 That's fair. And Stroman is an ADP follower as well. He's 14 spots down. Now 112th overall. And you don't know what his real ADP is because if he's falling 14 spots, maybe he was going in the 150s or something like that. You know what I mean? And it's the average is now 112th overall. Where would you take Marcus Stroman?
Starting point is 00:14:48 I say it all the time. Probably a difference in points. points versus categories of roto, which takes Stroman. I mean, I, I, the ADP still sounds fine to me. I think I've been finding you can get them lower than that, like you're saying. So it's, he seems like good value. People have been a little overconsented. To put context, to put a little more specific context on NFBC.com National Fantasy Baseball
Starting point is 00:15:14 Championship, you can actually search for ADP based on a time frame. So I just did just this weekend, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. and his ADP during that stretch, it's 60-something drafts, is 158. He's a steal at 150. Well, those are all Rotow least. Right, but he's a steel and roto at 158. He is. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:15:35 No, I agree. And, you know, probably needs to go, like, probably a steal three rounds earlier than that in Haddad Point's leave. Yep. All right, that's Marcus Stroman. Jared Eichoff is out six to eight weeks with a strain lat. Is there a significant fantasy impact here? Nick Povetta, I believe. I know he had an ADRA last year, but the stuff's really good.
Starting point is 00:15:59 It is good. It really is. He is free. He gets a lot of swinging strikes. If he just improves his command a little bit, he could be a good pitcher. He had a good start on Friday. He's his first good start. He's been getting strikeouts, though.
Starting point is 00:16:11 That's what he does. I made Scott pick up Nick Povetta on the team we shared, the 16 team squad that we shared last year. It didn't work out. It didn't work out. Minnesota shortstop Jorge Polanco is suspended 80 games for PED violation. Is there a significant impact here? Eric, Ibar.
Starting point is 00:16:30 No. Let's see. Jason Vargas, met starting pitcher. He broke his hand. He needs surgery, but he shouldn't miss much time. Yeah, I saw Drew Storrin had this same surgery on his glove hand, and it's the glove hand for Jason Vargas. I think in the 2015 spring training, he was back on the mound 14 days after. having surgery.
Starting point is 00:16:53 So, could be the same timeline for Jaylorers. Got to be an automatic out, right? When he comes up to bat. He already was. Just hold that bat out. And it looks like Stephen Mats is going to be the fifth starter there
Starting point is 00:17:06 and not Wheeler at the moment. Tampa Bay outfielder Malick Smith may not be ready for opening day. He's not even a starter for the race, but were you looking at Smith at all for steals? Sure. Yeah, he would have been a good source of steals if he can get playing time there.
Starting point is 00:17:24 And Jose Ramirez left Saturday's game with a bruised ankle. I haven't seen anything since. Not a big deal, right? No. Not yet. No, he's going to get, I think I saw a report. He was going to get offering some kind of timetable just a couple days. All right, it's Jose Ramirez.
Starting point is 00:17:38 And as if Heath couldn't love the Milwaukee Brewers because of Miller Park and the slide and the sausages and all that stuff anymore. Beer. Thank you. And beer, yeah. Thank you to Jeremiah Russell on Twitter. for sending us the video. The Brewers did a Sandlot tribute, and it was perfect.
Starting point is 00:17:55 It was perfect. It was so good. Everything about it. Eric Sogard as Squintz is phenomenal. Stephen Vote as the Great Hambino is, all of it is great. Yeah, and Christian Yelich plays Benny, right? Which is perfect. Yeah, it's pretty cool.
Starting point is 00:18:13 So well done, Milwaukee Brewers. I want to remind everybody, we will be doing our podcast league draft on Monday, next Monday, our podcast for the People League draft next Wednesday. And I will be announcing the winners on probably Wednesday, maybe Thursday's show. I have some haikus I'd like to read today. But let's do ADP review. Risers and followers, thank you to Chris Towers for getting this information for me. All right, let's start with a couple of Mets starting pitchers.
Starting point is 00:18:42 They are up Cindergarde, seven spots up. DeGrom, four spots up. They're going to be the first two starters for the Mets. Or is Degrom third, whatever it is. DeGrom's going to be fine. He's ready for this first run through. So DeGram is 34th overall in points. And Cindergarde is 24th overall in points.
Starting point is 00:19:03 And in Rode, I'm not going to look up. Roto, they're just a little bit behind that. But anyway, they're both having great springs. Talk to me about these two Mets pitchers, DeGrom and Cindergarde. They are really good. Yeah, I mean, if they can manage. to stay healthy, which is not something that Mets pitchers do. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:19:22 But if they can manage to stay healthy, I don't think there's any doubt that they're two of the best pitchers in baseball. Noah Cindergarde has the best chance out of anybody outside of that big four to be the best pitcher in baseball, I think. You know, we got an email a while ago. I never got to read it, but I thought it was really interesting. And it was about Cindergarde. I'm a Mets fan. And he said, the injury thing is overrated because he threw a hundred words. 183 and two-thirds innings in his second season, and then he threw seven more in the postseason.
Starting point is 00:19:54 So it was 190 and two-thirds. And then last year, he ignored, well, he, like, ignored the lat injury, didn't go get an MRI, whatever it was. Remember, he was just being foolish, and it led to a bigger injury. Do you think that's valid that maybe we're overstating Noah Cindergarde's injury concerns? He throws too hard. Yeah, that's what I'd say Like it's just It's just unnatural to throw that hard
Starting point is 00:20:22 And like it's one of those things where Like it's it's inning for inning It's great that you throw that hard But when you're trying to accumulate 200 Innings as we expect for a pitcher of Cindergarde's caliber It puts a lot of strain on that And I'm not saying it can't happen
Starting point is 00:20:39 It's one of those things where You can worry about it And ultimately there's going to be one outcome and it may not be one that realizes your concerns, but it's particularly coming off the season where he threw, like, what, 30 innings? Yes. You just have to wonder how much his arm's going to be able to take.
Starting point is 00:20:58 I think that's probably true. On the other hand, he never had arm issues before last year. He had a lat injury, which is not really something that we worry about with pitchers. It's not like he has a degenerative shoulder. He has fewer injuries. injury concerns than Jacob de Graf in terms of the amount of times he's been hurt and the place that they've been. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:20 I would just say like even if the arm is bulletproof, the lat injury, those types of things from exerting the type of effort and throwing as hard as he does. And sure. I think like we generally admire the I'm not going to come out of the game. I'm going to play through this injury thing. But that can lead to more serious injuries, especially for a pitcher. Sure. He should come out of the game.
Starting point is 00:21:42 And he is more likely to, like, to, again, I don't think there's any doubt. He is more likely to just say, no, I'm fine. Maybe. I don't know. Which is not necessarily bad. We're guessing. Like, we're totally guessing off.
Starting point is 00:21:52 He did it last year. It happened once. Right. We're guessing most of the time with injuries. He had, like, I think, almost 200 innings in 2015 between the majors, the minors, and the postseason. He had 193 in 2016. You just, mm-hmm. Yeah, I mean, he's as, he's more of an injury concern than you.
Starting point is 00:22:14 your typical pitcher, I don't think he's more of an injury concerned than Madison Baumgartner right now. Okay, so that's Noah Cindergarde. I don't play in any 10-team leagues, but I'm more willing to take some chances in 10-team league. I just find I'm too big of a coward to take Cindergarde. You all play scared. Yeah, I do play scared.
Starting point is 00:22:33 I guess I would need people to take, like, DeGrom, Carrasco, Severino, all off the board, and then I probably take Cindergarde. But in a 10-team league, I might take him ahead of those guys. See, I don't know. I don't know why we would think that Severino is less likely to get hurt than Zinderguard either. I've been saying that. He's similar. He throws too damn hard.
Starting point is 00:22:51 He had a big innings increase. I don't know why we would think Carlos Carasco has had arm injuries in his career. He's done one time. It's a good point. I don't know. I don't know. Maybe I shouldn't be so afraid of Cindergard. Well, not.
Starting point is 00:23:04 No, I mean, not a few. Like, I feel like Verlander is a safer bet for the big innings total we want from a pitcher. We draft that early. I feel like Cranky is, even in spite of this groin issue. Well, and that's why I rank Verlander and Grinky ahead of all of these guys in points. Yeah, yeah. And Roto, give me Cindergarten. I do feel like Bumgarner's safer too for that big.
Starting point is 00:23:24 Like, that's part of it too, not just, oh, he could get hurt. But, like, I kind of am at a place where until I see somebody throw 200 innings, I'm not just going to trust that they're able to throw 200 innings. And, you know, Cindergards, one of the few of that group who hasn't yet. Though, to be fair, he has not missed by much. But I would expect the odds are long coming off a year where he hardly pitched it all. All right, let's go to the next guy here. Now, some of the movers are really injury-based.
Starting point is 00:23:55 Like Shohei Otani, he's down 14 spots. Robinson Kano is dealing with an injury. He's down eight spots. But there's two re-RPs. They are the fourth and fifth relievers off the board in both points and Roto. And they're going around 90th overall in both points in Roto. And they're both falling. That would be Corey Knabel was down seven spots.
Starting point is 00:24:16 And Roberto Ozuna, who's down 10 spots. And what do you make of this? Is this just people prioritizing those RPs less? I don't think there's anything that those two specifically have done that, right? I wrote over the end of last week that Corey Knable was probably being drafted too high. Oh, it's your fault. Chris moves the needle. But I don't get Roberto Ozuna.
Starting point is 00:24:38 Like he's gotten established track record of what, three years as a high-quality closer? Kirk and Abel's done it one time. So I think that one makes sense. I think that's a little bit of correction that was needed. But Roberto Zun, I don't get. I think he's actually a value. Well, I don't know if he's a value as the fifth closer off the board. Doesn't that seem, I mean, that tells you about the drop in tier.
Starting point is 00:25:03 We don't think there are more than three reliable closers right now, right? Right. Right. One of them's Chapman, who wasn't reliable last year. So that's, I mean, that's just kind of the nature of the position. Right, right. At least on this site, have been pretty consistent about not paying up for closers. You know, maybe making an exception for Jansen and Kimbril, but that's about it.
Starting point is 00:25:25 Right. Janssen's going 40th. Kimbril's going 48th. Chapman is going 65th, and then you go into the 90s, basically, to get. It's really, you know, Canable's probably going to go fourth, and then Ozuna. I don't know that he'll go fifth. in even half the drafts. It's a personal preference thing
Starting point is 00:25:42 because Ken Giles goes after that. Cody Allen. You know, it's a big tier, right? These are all guys who have the talent to jump into the truly elite tiers, but we just, with Canabel, with Giles, we haven't seen it for more than one year at a time. But what is it, I'll ask you a question that I already know the answer to, that you will also.
Starting point is 00:26:01 What is it that Ozuna does not have that all those other guys do have? Well, I mean, if you're talking about the very top guys, he's not going to average 15 strikeouts per nine. No, I'm talking about Ken Giles, Corey Canable, Cody Allen. Well, I mean... I don't really think... He's not going to match Canabel and strikeout rate either. It's wins. It saves. It's the Blue Jays are the worst team.
Starting point is 00:26:23 By far. They're not that... They might not be that bad. In that bunch, they look like the worst team. You don't think they're going to be that bad? Amongst the Astros and Brewers. Okay, yeah. Like, the Astros for sure.
Starting point is 00:26:35 And the Indians. Well, the Indians. Cody Allen doesn't get all their saves anyway. Yeah, he does. He gets almost all their saves. It hasn't worked out very long. He just doesn't get saves. They don't have a save opportunity.
Starting point is 00:26:45 Yeah. I'm going to throw this out there for Azuna. He had like eight blown saves last year, right, and almost lost his job at one point. Yeah. And, you know, that shouldn't happen, considering how good he is. But there were some ties to some anxiety issues that were going. on around this time and you know you hope those are past you hope those are behind him for reasons beyond even just baseball but you never know okay so next up would be charlie morton
Starting point is 00:27:19 charley morton on fantasy pros is 174th off the board cb s he's higher we like him hundred and fifth and points now keep in mind starting pitchers just get pushed up in points hundred and fifth and points 139th for charley morden and rhodo pretty interesting pitcher somebody I wanted to talk more about today. How do you guys feel about Charlie Morton? I really like him, and I'm always surprised to see how long he lasts. I feel like once you're outside of the – I trust this guy to throw 180-plus innings group anyway. And, you know, guys like Luis Castillo, Luke Weaver, Rich Hill, they're all outside of their group, Alex Wood.
Starting point is 00:27:59 Once you get past that, I don't know that Charlie Morton is significantly worse than any of them. He has big strikeout potential. He was huge in the postseason, obviously a great supporting cast, and actually has demonstrated durability in the past. And he missed time the last couple years with injuries, but it's not like it's a non-starter for him. So I like him. I like drafting him in the range he's going.
Starting point is 00:28:22 I'm probably the lowest guy on Charlie Morton, and it's just, again, a reflection of the process that I go through when I do rankings. Charlie Morton was phenomenal last year, and if I felt confident that was the real Charlie Morton. Morton that I would rank him much higher. But he's topped 160 innings once ever, and that was in 2011. He was never
Starting point is 00:28:42 a strikeout pitcher before last year. He's thrown his hard. There was a big velocity jump there. Right, and he's 34. So I just don't know that I expect him to continue that for 150 innings again. I will point out one thing and that's Alex Woods going about 25 spots ahead of Charlie Morton.
Starting point is 00:29:00 And Alex Wood and Charlie Morton had very similar first halves of the season. But Charlie Morton actually sustained the velocity jump. But Alex Wood's going to pitch out of the stretch all the time now. Sure. So we're okay. Charlie Morton actually sustained the velocity gains that he had in the first half that Alex Wood did. And Alice Wood was bad in the second half of last season.
Starting point is 00:29:18 Yeah. And he kind of turned back into the Alex Wood that we had no interest in between that Braves breakout in last year. He also had injury issues. He's had a ton of injury issues. I'd rather have Charlie Morton than Alex Wood. Yeah, I'd rather have Wood. He's, what, seven years younger? He's thrown in a build,
Starting point is 00:29:34 he could throw 190 in the past. Yeah, I think I'd rather have Wood too. His best is better. I think the Morton's. And I don't just want, like, with Alex Wood, it's, and I don't, maybe we shouldn't be getting off on an Alex Wood tangent, but,
Starting point is 00:29:47 like last year wasn't the first year. He was a desirable fantasy option. Right. No, but it was really just one half of last year. Full season, like he had a 272 ARA for the entire season. Yeah, yeah. Full season statistics are more predictive than partial season statistics,
Starting point is 00:30:04 but the second half he turned back into the Alex Wood that he'd been for the last two or three years. He barely struck anyone out. He was throwing 88 miles an hour. Well, that's interesting. You look at the game log, the final two months of the season, he had a 333 ERA over nine starts.
Starting point is 00:30:22 He had 41 strikeouts and 54 innings. Yeah, and the strikeouts were down, and that's worth noting. He wasn't the dominant pitcher he was in the first half. But I see like two really bad starts and two kind of bad starts in the second half. And the rest of all look good. Yeah. And I mean, I think pitching in the National League is favorable for personally.
Starting point is 00:30:45 I mean, I think that helps. I don't know how you guys feel about that. Oh, I agree with that. Yeah. A little bit. Yeah, okay. So just one thing on Morton, this was a guy. He did have a good year last year, but, you know, maybe this is more like makes him more of a roto guy than a points guy.
Starting point is 00:30:59 they didn't really let him throw more than six innings very often. He had 25 starts in 18 of them. It was six innings or less. And in the playoffs, it was the same thing. But that happens all the time in the playoffs. And then third time through the order, he had like an 8-something ERA, 718 ERA. Not to say that'll happen again,
Starting point is 00:31:18 but that's what the case was last year for Morton. All right. Who else we got here is risers and fallers? J.T. Ray Almuto is down seven spots? Is there a reason for that? he just like has been playing with weirdly defined injury issues in the spring I feel like like he hasn't been playing every day for the Marlins he's in a terrible lineup yeah I don't know Carlos Santana is rising up the draft board in points leagues as he should I feel like that
Starting point is 00:31:48 probably just happens every year with Carlos Santana where people are drafting off default rankings and then as soon as you get into the meat of the head-to-head season people remember oh yeah Carlos Santana's a beast. Where is he going in points now? I am the new ADP boy. He is going 118th overall. One spot behind Eric Hosmer. Still way too late.
Starting point is 00:32:08 And then we have the most overdrafted player in baseball history. Oh boy, am I going to regret. I thought we already talked about Otani. I'm going to regret saying this. He's going to have a monster year. Eric Thames, 119th overall. Round 10 for Thames. That's absurd.
Starting point is 00:32:24 But like... Wait a second. It's even worse. The next guy is Steve. Steven Sousa. What the hell is going on, people? Well, Susa was worth that last year. In a points league? He was... Probably not in a points league. With all the strikeouts?
Starting point is 00:32:38 And Thames, Thames, I think, has nice value in Roto because you're going to be able to benefit from the fact that he's going to not face a lot of left-eat. That's points, though. Yeah, that's what I'm saying is he's being overdrafted in any format at that price, but I like him more in Roto. I'm just going to say it, too. Thames has an extremely favorable sports line projection that I myself do not subscribe to. I subscribe to sports line and everyone else. That specific projection I think is awfully favorable, especially given the playing time concerns.
Starting point is 00:33:12 Carlos Santana is going 161st in Roto in our leagues and 118th in points. And I feel like I took him in the 70s or 80s last year in points. I don't expect him to be much different. he's a bad first half player so keep that in mind would you take Miguel Cabrera or Carlos Santana
Starting point is 00:33:32 and points I'll take Santana by one spot I mean I it's one of those things where I know I rank it differently but every time I'm drafting and I'm in his point
Starting point is 00:33:44 at a spot where I can draft Miguel Cabrera I don't like he's one of those guys that I feel like I needed to see like Monster Spring production from to buy it to totally buy into what in theory should be a bounce back season. I'm buying it. I'm buying it.
Starting point is 00:34:03 Because you can get him in like the ninth round or something. Like if that's true, but I have yet to experience Miguel Cabrera is there in the ninth round still. And, you know, maybe that's just the kind of people I draft with and everybody listening should ignore me. True. He's having a pretty good spring. He's not having a monster.
Starting point is 00:34:21 No, he's, he's, he's been in 340. He hasn't done anything wrong this. spring, but yeah, there hasn't, how many home runs is it? Just one. But he only had one last spring. Yeah, well. Scott, you should join an ESPN league. Miguel Cabrera is going 121st overall.
Starting point is 00:34:36 Yeah. I mean, it's obviously where we talked about this, I think, last podcast. Where his ADP is in some of these sites, there's really no downside. But the places where I'm facing the option of drafting him and the places where, like, in our standard points league, him versus Carlos Santana, as early as I think I'd have to draft Carlos Santana to be sure I got him. I'd rather draft Santana. All right, a couple of things real quick, and then we'll talk about some guys that are going
Starting point is 00:35:03 later in drafts that are interesting. First of all, please sign up for the commissioner product on CBSports.com and go to CBSports.com slash FBT. CBSports.com slash FBT, it's the best. If you're a serious fantasy baseball player, you need to be playing on our website. CBSports.com slash FBT. You'll show a little bit of love for this podcast. And also show a little love for this podcast by downloading the Seekek app and using the promo code fantasy.
Starting point is 00:35:32 That will save you $20 on your first Seatgeek purchase. Just got off the phone with my brother before the show started. He's buying Foo Fighters tickets. I'm very jealous. And he's using Seat Geek to get there. He's already used a promo code because he saved the $20. Promote is fantasy. But you're still going to use Seek after you use the promo code because it's still going to save you time and money.
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Starting point is 00:36:22 first Seekek purchase. I've got the app. I use it all the time. You should as well. Seekkeek, promo code fantasy. That's $20 off your first Seekkeek purchase. All right, Chris, so you gave me some really good stuff based on NFBC. Like what you said, you just looked at the drafts over the weekend. And talking about deeper league players that we don't always talk about. Who's moving up or down? Who really stands out to you? Dominic Leone, who is... Scott, the report last week was that right now he would be the favorite for saves in St. Louis, right? If the season started
Starting point is 00:36:54 today was how the question was posed to John Mazzelich, but obviously the season wasn't starting today. I think it's worth noting Gregerson pitch this weekend. So. Okay. And so he's moved up 138 spots over the weekend to 315, so still free in a roto league,
Starting point is 00:37:12 free speculative option for saves. If you've already drafted, go pick them up. Amir Garrett and Nathan Ivaldi both moving up. Still, in the 400s, but two guys who have shown some interesting upside. Nativaldi, you know, throws really hard, hasn't really done much with it coming off Tommy John surgery, but playing in a great park in Tampa Bay, if he can stay healthy, there's potential there.
Starting point is 00:37:36 And Garrett was good again over the weekend. Yes, so. Yeah, he was. Amir Garrett, let me give you the numbers there on Amir Garrett. Red's starting pitcher, where are you? One hit in four innings with four strikeouts for the spring. He has allowed two earn runs in 13 innings with 15 strikeouts. Nine total base runners in those 13 innings.
Starting point is 00:37:56 Scott White. Pretty good. And he looked good at the start of last season before things fell apart. But he's young enough that you can dream a little bit on it. Okay. Amir Garrett. And two of the – we'll talk about three other big risers for stolen bases. Delina DeShield was up to 159th this weekend in FBC drafts.
Starting point is 00:38:18 Now you're starting to get... You're still too low. It was too low last year, too, right? Scott, or Adam? No, no, he wasn't guaranteed the job. I just want to say this about DeShields. He's basically changed drafts for me. Like, if you feel confident that he's going to keep the job,
Starting point is 00:38:37 then I'm taking Noon Aeron Aeronado ahead of Trey Turner and reaching for Delano to Shields. I understand that. And I have DeShields actually ranked a little bit higher than that at 141. I do think if he plays... 150 games, which he never has. But if he plays 150 games, you're looking at probably close to 100 runs and 30 to 40 steals. And that's worth more than a 12th round pick if he does nothing else.
Starting point is 00:38:58 Plus, Trey Turner's dealing with an ingrownown. Oh, that's awful. So. He's nothing like Trey Turner. I mean, even if they both steal their max amount of bases, Turner might have 25 more than the Shields. But he just frees me up. I'm not entirely sold on Turner third overall, which is I'm totally, like you guys are, that's, I don't doubt, I don't blame you at all.
Starting point is 00:39:20 But for those of us who just would rather take Aeronado or Harper or whatever, like, DeShields is a game changer for me. Yeah. But maybe I'm an idiot. Maybe he's going to be terrible and lose his job. I think you're right. But what this tells me is that if you really, really want DeLano DeShields in the drafts that we do this week, you might have to take him 130th overall now. It's one of those things, yeah. I mean, DeShields is probably one of those players.
Starting point is 00:39:46 Kind of like I tweeted about Ronald Acuna over the weekends, like going to keep going earlier and earlier. You were right. As we get closer to the season. Do you know what his ADP was? Over the weekend? DeCunia? 94th.
Starting point is 00:39:59 94th. I took both of them, by the way, on Friday in the 15-team Roto draft that we did. De Shields, I took 159th. And Acuna, I took 15 times 6 is... About 90. Yeah, okay. So I took him 80. 86th overall or something like that.
Starting point is 00:40:21 Yeah. And it wouldn't surprise me if he starts going in the top 70, the closer we get, Akunia. But to finish my point about the Shields, like, the danger of banking on just this one player who's going to do everything you need him to do at a later stage in the draft is what if somebody just reaches for him three rounds earlier than you're prepared to. So, like, the good thing about Trey Turner taking him third overall is it really takes the price. pressure off for steals. And, you know, I don't think you need as many steals as maybe a lot of people think they do to just be competitive to finish in the middle of the pack in that category. So that's the argument against taking Turner there. But it's just such a relief to have those steals tied up early. And that 15 team draft Heath, that was the one that I ruined your your draft,
Starting point is 00:41:09 right, by taking D. Gordon and Starling Marte. At the two, three, yes. To Gordon in the second, Marte and the third, and that was my plan. I fell behind on steals. And then I was going to take Delano's Shield, and Adam took them right before I could. But I still end up second in steals. So there's plenty of steals out there. So who do you have? ADP, oh, sorry.
Starting point is 00:41:26 Yeah, no, I'm curious. You didn't get DeShields. You didn't get Turner. You didn't get Marte. You didn't get D. Gordon. You're projected to finish second in steals. So how did you do it? I am pulling up my team right now.
Starting point is 00:41:36 What I did was sacrifice a lot of other categories. He sabotaged his line of them. Sabotaged my team, but I did get my steals. My guy, well, and my steel total went down a little bit because I drafted Jorge Polanco and then he got suspended. Lorenzo Cain, Oduble Herrera, Cameron Mabin, Bradley Zimmer, Hernon Perez is my corner infielder. Jorge Polanco was on my team. Okay. How do you feel, do you like it?
Starting point is 00:42:04 It's a 15-team league, so. No, I don't like it. I like my, the problem is I think that would work okay if I had gone. with a more traditional pitching approach, but I don't generally do that in Roto. I didn't do that in this league. And so I'm already starting off in a position where I know in the second half of the season,
Starting point is 00:42:23 I'm going to be chasing wins just a little bit, and I'm going to be chasing strikeouts just a little bit. I expect to be ahead and saves ERA and whip. But I don't necessarily want to feel like I've had to sacrifice offensive categories. Part of the purpose of that strategy is you get ahead in a bunch of offensive categories, and I couldn't do that,
Starting point is 00:42:43 because of you and Chris. Well, if you weren't doing that specific strategy where you need that advantage in categories, like if you don't get one of the three Uber Steels guys, you know, you probably shouldn't be aiming to finish second in the category. Like,
Starting point is 00:43:01 and this is a second in a 15 team league especially. Like, that takes a lot of commitment to the cause like Heath needed. Now, in fairness, like I don't want you to think my offense is terrible. I've got Rizzo, I've got Aeronado, I've got Dozier,
Starting point is 00:43:13 and I've got Posey. So there's a lot of offensive firepower. I was able to do what you wanted, I think. Like, my offense is really balanced. It's just my pitching is not great. And I'm going to have to make up for that. But I don't have the weaknesses on offense that you had to build into your team. That's the advantage to getting those guys, especially the guys who don't hurt you.
Starting point is 00:43:34 Yeah. All right. So anyway, check that roto draft out online. I think we'll talk a little bit more about it tomorrow because I want to know. Is Dee Gordon and Starling Marte? is that overkill second and third picks, but we'll find out. Anyway, Chris, who else is big-time movers and shakers in 80s? Cameron Maiban is up to 306.
Starting point is 00:43:51 That's 40 spots up, and Ozzie Albies is up to 105. That's another guy that you probably have to take a round earlier than you think you have to. The hype built slowly for him in the off season, but now it's really taken off. Humbered from both sides of the plate Friday. We all love him. He's, you know, per 150 games in the minor. there's a note about this, so I'll just say it. He's averaged 39 steals per 150 games in the minors.
Starting point is 00:44:18 He was on a 40 steel pace almost in AAA last season. He's been an efficient base runner, which is actually not true for Ronald Ocuna. Ronald Ocuna Cune. He's stolen bases at like a 60% clip in his minor league career, so that'll be something to watch. And I think Albies has a stated goal of 40 steals. Yeah, that was the note. Oh, okay. You were building up to it, sorry.
Starting point is 00:44:40 Okay, so that's Ozzy Albies who's moving up. along with Acuna. And the guys are moving down, it's a lot of the injury concerns that we've talked about, Yule Garreal, Jimmy Nelson, Danny Salazar, Glaber Torres and David Dahl, because it looks like they may not have the role that we hoped. Shahi Otani down to 101 at NFBC,
Starting point is 00:44:58 so he's falling even more. Miguel Snowe down to 129. He starts to get a little more interesting there. I think we all think he's being overdrafted where he was going before. Domingo Santana down to 109. And Daniel Murphy down to 109. and Daniel Murphy down to 90th.
Starting point is 00:45:13 So I would expect all of those guys to keep falling. And Daniel Murphy feels like a really good value there. 90th. Even with the injury concerns. Like if he plays 140 games at his normal pace. 140 is the high side, Chris. He always plays that. He's a third round.
Starting point is 00:45:28 He's going to miss the first half of the season. Stop saying that. But there's obviously injury. The National is still, is Mike Rizzo? Is that the president? He's no Mike Tanner. He was, there were some quotes this morning. He was talking to the media and he was saying they haven't ruled him out, but they're very, very close to doing it.
Starting point is 00:45:51 But yeah, like they haven't ruled him out for opening day yet, Daniel Murphy. He's going to get ruled out for opening day. But how bad, I don't know, maybe it could be really bad. What round is that in a 12-team league 90th overall? That's the end of the eighth round, right? Somebody gives me grief on Twitter all the time I post. I talk in terms of round number for play. He's like, just say the overall number.
Starting point is 00:46:12 But this is why I don't, because when I see an overall number, I have a hard time translating it back to round. Just divided by 12. I know, but... That's not so easy. I can divide it by 10 easily, but by 12... It's just two more. Yeah, it's the middle of the eighth round. Especially when I'm scrolling through my Twitter timeline, and I just has to pop at first glance.
Starting point is 00:46:31 Do you like Domingo Santana? Chris, you're the Domingo Santana detractor. Do you like him at 109th? No. Does anyone? Yeah. I think 109th is far enough for him to fall. Okay, cool.
Starting point is 00:46:44 So we got about 15 minutes left. Here are some quick haikus. I don't have any names, but they're fun. UVA alum. Friday night, I was quite numb. Don't make me more glum. They don't have to rhyme, guys. That was good. All right, we have a couple of haikus that point out something that Heath says a lot and something that I say a lot.
Starting point is 00:47:05 Here's the one about Heath. Podcast drinking game. Drink every time Heath says necessarily. I do. Wait, but is that enough syllables? Necessarily. Yeah, yeah. You do say that?
Starting point is 00:47:18 I never notice that. No, I drink every time I say it. Oh, okay. Here's one. A peep drowns in tea. The world collectively gasps and says, why, Scott, why? Yeah. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:47:33 Scott puts peeps in his tea. It's disgusting. It's such a visual, though. Here's the one calling me out. Fair enough, he says. Damn, say something else, Azer. No better hosts, though. I do say that a lot.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Yeah, that's my, what I say, what I have nothing else to say. It's a good way to avoid argument. Yes, it is. All right, here we go. Last one. Would Chris Towers take Samarja as Super Ace to make Adam mad?
Starting point is 00:48:05 Yes. Yes, he would. Fair enough, Chris. Fair enough. All right, so if we look at the 15-team Roto League that I keep referencing, I just want to help the deep league owners out. Who are, I have a couple of picks from my team that I thought were good value, interesting players in deeper leagues. Do you guys have a couple players on your teams, or do you need some time? I can talk about my guys.
Starting point is 00:48:29 I said Cameron Mabon, I think if you're behind in steals late in the draft, he is an excellent option. Yeah, I've got some. All right, go for it. I'll go last. Tyler Chatwood, I got him 266th overall, should win a lot of games for the Cubs. His home road splits away from Colorado have always suggested that he's a better pitcher than his overall numbers do. And that's a very nice landing spot for him. I think there's good value there.
Starting point is 00:48:55 I got Jonathan LaCroix at 206th in a two-catcher 15 team league. I also think that's nice value. Look, Jonathan Croy might just be as washed up as he looked. last year. But he was making contact. You know, there wasn't a lot of success, but his approach at the plate was solid. I'm willing to bet on that in the 200 range,
Starting point is 00:49:18 especially as my number two catcher. I got Lucas Duda in the 29th round, the next to last round of the draft. Kind of feels like he, if he does what he's done, he's going to be a 30-homer guy. He's never really hitting a good park. So I'm not too worried about Kansas City
Starting point is 00:49:34 and what it's going to do to him. and that's really late. That's like pick 430. All right, Lucas Duda. Scott, how about you, got a couple guys? I drafted, and I've been drafting him in a lot of five outfields with leagues. Dustin Fowler in round 22, 15-team league. Give me the number, Scott.
Starting point is 00:49:55 They don't show the overall number in the draft room here. 22 times 15 plus whatever pick you were. No, it's 21. See, that's the tricky part. It's 21 times 15 plus whatever pitch you were. pick you were. 315 plus something. Okay, that was very good listening experience that, guys.
Starting point is 00:50:11 Thank you. You're welcome. Dustin. Dustin felt like, why is he not getting more credit as a Steels guy? He pretty much is locked up the center field job in Oakland. Like, I think he's good for 20, 25 steals in that role. The money ball doesn't run. Well, they, where did Regie Davis spend the better parts of his career?
Starting point is 00:50:28 I think that's, I think that's false. They traded Sunny Gray in part for him, so hopefully they have big hopes for him. Yeah, I don't know why Mike Miner isn't getting more attention. I know we give him, you know, in the points league contest, text as a spark. But just as a pitcher, I mean, he was a top 25-ish starting pitcher in fantasy in 2013 for the Braves before the arm issues really started to pop up for him. And I feel like any time we have a guy who dominates in relief and then gets a chance to start, like that's usually hype city.
Starting point is 00:51:03 and in minor's case he's semi-proven as a starter I feel like he's being overlooked I'm happy to get him in round 25 of this race What's going on with him in the spring? His last start was good seven innings and three
Starting point is 00:51:16 starts and he hasn't pitched in nine days I don't know a lot of times they put guys on the backfield to make a start I know and so we just don't hear about it but I haven't heard any talk of health issues or whatever
Starting point is 00:51:32 One more, please. Or none. That's whatever if you're done. No, I have a couple good ones here. I'll go with J.P. Crawford, who for some reason, like, people don't want, even though he's going to be shortstop eligible soon enough and was a top 15 prospect forever. Had a really good finish at AAA last year. It doesn't strike out much. So, you know, I think there's power there.
Starting point is 00:51:57 And I think with his bad above profile, he could hit for average, too. And in these 15 team leagues, I'm getting them the very ends of draft. So that's, I think he's more exciting than that. Two guys I wanted to highlight is Drobel Cabrera, 357th overall. Is he that good? No, but he's eligible at second, third, and short. So that gives you some flexibility in deep leagues. He's pretty good.
Starting point is 00:52:21 He's okay. Yeah, he's all right. He's a starter. Yeah, 200. He hit 280, two straight seasons. Doesn't play all that many games. But is dribble Cabrera, second, third, and short eligible. and I love Stephen Piscotti, 274th overall.
Starting point is 00:52:35 Look, he had big time personal issues last year with his mother dealing with ALS. They traded him to Oakland so he could be near her. He improved his plate discipline last year, and Piscotti in 2016 was a really good player. So he's young. Don't give up on him. 274th overall is pretty excited to get Stephen Piscotti there. Tomorrow we'll talk about some players that we don't talk enough about. I have Tommy Fam, Hector Narris, Wilson Contreras, and more on the list.
Starting point is 00:53:00 For the rest of this show, let's go through anything we missed from spring training. We talked about Acuna. We've talked about Solair, but two other outfielders are doing well. Jesse Winker for the Reds, Hunter Renfro for the Padres. And then we'll do a couple of steals notes in a second. But Jesse Winker and Hunter Renfro. Now, Renfro is all homers. Two walks, 14 strikeouts, but five homers.
Starting point is 00:53:25 Winker is having a very solid spring. Are these guys risers for you? I think Renfro has some pretty clear playing time concerns because Andy Green, the Padres manager, has been effusive in his praise for Jose Perela and pretty much says they need to play him somewhere. And he can play places other than the outfield, but not very well. So, you know, Renfro may be looking at a part-time role
Starting point is 00:53:50 and remind me who was the other one again? Winker also. Winkler. Yeah. Now, I think Winker is just such a good hitter. that he'll eventually play that into a full-time role. I'm much more enthusiastic about drafting him than Renfro. Do they have a guy who can play center if Shebler?
Starting point is 00:54:14 Shebler is the backup center fielder. I'm telling you, like, there's, that has to be a little tiny bit of Billy Hamilton risk there because he is such a bad hitter. He's such a bad hitter. He's so good defensively, too, that that's going to keep him out there, I think. Yes, I do too. I just, it's in the back of my mind with him. Yeah, I think they'd probably trade him before outright benching him.
Starting point is 00:54:38 Well, didn't they try to trade him this offseason and really didn't get a lot of traction? Well, I mean, but if it comes to benching him, I think they'll be more willing to take less than they were aiming for. And it's not like Scott Shebler. Like, he hits the ball hard, but his on-base percentage has been pretty bad in his major league career. So I'm not sure he stands to be much of an upgrade on Billy Hamilton. Fair too. All right. David Dahl has four steals, and Billy Burns stole four bases over the weekend. Billy Burns.
Starting point is 00:55:07 Billy Burns, his minor league career makes him look like someone who should be a good player. He's stolen 62 bases per 150 games and 86% success rate. He has a 380 career on base percentage in the minors, but we just have no indication that he can hit in the majors. Yeah. He's, he got DFAed, right? is back on a minor league deal or something. No one took him, so he's there in a minor league deal. Yep, yep.
Starting point is 00:55:34 Yeah, no. But David Dahl, that's an underrated part of his skill set. And I feel like we're going to see him sooner than later. I don't think we're going to see either him or McMahon to begin the year, because Ian Desmond's been back playing first base a lot lately, and Parra's been hitting well since coming back from the hand issue. So I think they'll both begin in the minors, but we'll see them sooner than later. Shortstop, Catelle Marte for the Diamondbacks having a great spring.
Starting point is 00:56:00 Victor Martinez is having a good spring. I doubt we care about that. I do. Maybe, yeah. I've taken Victor Martinez multiple times this year. The batter ball data was still really good last year. Tigers? Well, for whatever the batted ball data is worse.
Starting point is 00:56:15 Was there a tiger who had bad batted ball data? I do not believe so. Okay, what I will say is, do we think something changed between 2016 and 17? Because the hard hit rate stuff is not. But the hard hit rate stuff is not coming from statcast. Those are different systems entirely. And Victor Martinez's hard hit rate was actually the same in 2016 when his results were good. I don't know what it means, but I don't think he's just completely done.
Starting point is 00:56:41 I think there's a chance. It's okay. I cite the Camerica's spike and refute it based on what more conveniently fits my argument, too. Some pictures. Oh, he was calling you inconsistent. That is not a word. All right, let's go. Let's talk pitchers. Tyson Ross, Jake Junis.
Starting point is 00:57:02 Do you have interest in these? And Faria had a good start as well. I'm sure he's way ahead of the others. But Tyson Ross and Jake Junis are having pretty good springs. I mean, Ross, yeah, I mean, can't kind of come out of nowhere. And Ross was somebody I liked a couple of years ago. It's good to see him getting back maybe to where he was. He and Junis both are kind of in the same type of, in this type.
Starting point is 00:57:25 I don't know if he was drafted in our 15-team 30-round draft. He should have been. Who, Ross, or both? Junice. I'm sure Junis was. And I've been happy to take Junis in those 15-team leagues. It's just I haven't, you don't get deep enough in the pitcher pool to take them otherwise. But I like him.
Starting point is 00:57:40 I think in terms of called strikes, he was close to elite last year and has added a second breaking ball. So it was already a pretty good one. I think there's definite upside there. And, I mean, Ross, obviously, we know that too. He's coming back from Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, kind of like Harvey is, and has gotten a lot of favorable pub, kind of like Harvey has this spring.
Starting point is 00:58:05 But hasn't gotten strike. Many strikeouts kind of like Harvey this spring. Sorry, Scott. Harvey was a 16th round pick in the 15th team league. Junis was a 22nd round pick, and Ross went undrafted. So let me give you some pitchers who were bad this week, this weekend.
Starting point is 00:58:21 Dylan Bundy having a terrible spring Danny Duffy having a terrible spring Junjun Ryu having a terrible spring Rinaldo Lopez and Michael Kopec were at Kopec especially were bad this weekend as well
Starting point is 00:58:37 Bundy and Duffy are the two really to start with here are you concerned about them are you moving them down I can't really move them down I think because I was already lower on on than anyone else's and I'm not going to get any of them where I have them ranked So I think they were both being drafted too early.
Starting point is 00:58:54 I think they were... Bundy was being drafted on what we think he could be, more than what he is. Bundy is 47th off the board. Duffy, as an SP. Duffy is, sorry, 42nd. So they're both pick... Actually, that seems kind of low.
Starting point is 00:59:12 163rd overall for Duffy and Bundy. Yeah, I haven't gotten the impression Duffy's going too early at all. Both of them are players... Both of them are players I'd move down because it's... become apparent to me. I don't have to draft them as early as I had them. But I feel like, and like, Bundy's kind of different because it's totally dependent on how much he's throwing that slider cutter hybrid. If he's using it a lot, he's good. If he's not, he's not. And we just, like, until the bell rings, we're not really going to know, even when the bell rings,
Starting point is 00:59:39 we're not going to know if he sticks with it. So, but Duffy, I feel like is, like, there's some doubt to me whether he's 2017 Duffy or 2016 Duffy, but I don't really. feel like he's just a bad pitcher, and I think it's just one of those spring training things. He was pitching through elbow pain last season. Yeah, and it would be nice if... Foot pitchers are going to be bad in spring training. It happens all the time. It would be nice if Routon-Odor would do something. He's having a terrible spring. He does have four steals. And also Camberdojan and Blasperperperian and Blake Parker were both bad on Friday.
Starting point is 01:00:11 I don't know if they pitched Saturday or Sunday, but they struggled this weekend. That's pretty much going to do it, unless you guys have anything important to say about Routenet-O-Dor. I'm not worried. If people want to pass him up, I'm fine, taking him around 100. With his type of skill set, he's going to have hot streaks and cold streaks, it was very cool that I think they put him at second base and put the other Ruegnet O'Dore at shortstop in a spring training game the other day. So that was awesome.
Starting point is 01:00:38 That is pretty cool. And that's it for today's pretty cool show. Thank you all for listening. We'll come back tomorrow. And let's do sleepers. We should do sleepers breakouts and bus before people will draft this upcoming weekend. so we'll make sure we do that and starting tomorrow. For Chris Scott Heath, I am Adam.
Starting point is 01:00:54 Talk to you there.

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