Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/19: Good and Bad Draft Values; Aces to Avoid; Late-Round Picks (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 19, 2019

Plenty to cover on today's show. We start with news on Jung-Ho Kang (1:50) and the LAD rotation (3:50) as Chris suggests a really fun draft strategy. We also touch on Byron Buxton's great Spring (8:35) before we get to Five Big Questions (16:00) about Mallex Smith, aces to avoid, Trevor Story, Joey Votto vs. Jose Abreu and prospects to draft (27:30) ... Discussing H2H Categories leagues (31:40) including daily vs. weekly formats. Then we tell you some of our favorite late-round picks (36:25) ... Team Name Tuesday (41:03)! Then let's talk draft value! We've got undervalued and overvalued players (42:00) according to ADP. This leads us into a good discussion about 2B depth. We also discuss Mitch Haniger, Justin Turner and Christian Yelich ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. We're fantasy. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. We got big news. We got a starting third baseman in Pittsburgh that we might be pretty excited about in fantasy.

The dudes got some pop. Welcome, everybody. This is Fantasy Baseball today. It is Tuesday, two days to fill out your brackets in our bracket challenge and hopefully get into the podcast league. I'm Adam Azer. Say hello to Chris Towers. What's up? Hey, guys.

I'm a little disappointed that Heath didn't take off his blue hoodie because now we look kind of like we're matching. And I just think, like, seniority, I should be the one who gets to keep the jacket on. You have been at CBS longer. Yeah. And you are the boss. And I'm middle-aged. I've been on Earth longer. That's not how it works.

I think I have seniority. You actually stole what I was going to say, because it is pretty hilarious that Team Kreet is matching right now. And Scott, hello, Scott. How are you? I have my own shade of blue, but I don't look like I tried to do it. It's really cute, guys. Okay. So today, overdrafted and underdrafted players, we're getting a lot of questions about late-round picks.

Who are our favorite late-round picks? Well, we'll tell you some of our favorite late-round picks. We'll read some emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com, including a couple of questions about head-to-head categories leagues. And five big questions. We did it yesterday. It was a smashing success. Everybody loved it.

So we'll do five big questions again today. Let's start with news and notes. Not a ton. But Jung Ho Gong is going to be Pittsburgh's starting third baseman. Eric Gonzalez will be Pittsburgh shortstop. Heath talked to me about the left side of the Pittsburgh infield. Well, we're not going to talk about Eric Gonzalez. because he is a terrible hitter

and he's only getting to start at shortstop because of his ability to play defense. And they need somebody that's good at defense over there because Jung Ho Gong is really not. But what Gong has been is pretty exciting when he's been an everyday player. He's got a 274 average. He's got an 837 OPS,

hit 36 home runs in just about 230 major league games. So I do think this is a guy who if, and it's a question mark, It's been over a year now. If he can get back to that level, he could be a guy that's looking like a very good option as a starting corner infielder and could push to be a starting third basement in fantasy.

Yeah, I took a look at him in our 12-team Roto League that starts quarter infielder's. He was drafted, I had forgotten. So he was not available. But just looking at 2016, if he had played 155 games, he would have been the number 14 third baseman in points leagues. which would have been that fantasy point total would have made him number 13 in 2018. So based on that production, it's mostly home runs.

Scott, for Gong, it's probably not a one-third basement type of league, right? That's kind of what Heath was saying. Still more like those deeper roto leagues? Well, yeah, I mean, especially now. I mean, if he gets back to that level, like Heath was saying, and there's no evidence he is. I mean, his spring, he had five home runs. They were his only five hits. he struck out in like half as it bats and hasn't played.

It's been, I mean, he got a little time at the end of last season, but for the most part it's been two full years since he played. He's 32 now. It's, you know, deeper leagues, deeper leagues. He's a sleeper for deeper leagues. All right, Clayton Kershaw is going to begin the season on the injured list. So, Chris, which starting pitchers are you drafting? Let's talk about all the draftable starting pitchers for the Dodgers in order.

Okay, Walker Bueller 1, Clayton Kershaw 2. then what? It looks like you don't read CBSSports.com's fantasy baseball coverage at him because I actually wrote about this very topic yesterday. And I'm a little wary of sharing this on the podcast because we still have drafts to go. But something that Heath and I were talking about yesterday

and I realized it's a pretty good idea is you can actually just draft every Dodgers pitcher. and last year they had a starting pitcher ERA of 318 I was looking at ATC projections from Ariel Cohen he has them projected for 3-4-4 ERA collectively the seven guys Clayton Kershaw Walker Bueller Kentimaida Rich Hill Ross stripling, Julio Reyes and Hyunjin Ryu

and what I realized is you can draft Bueller in like late third early fourth Kirshah on the fifth take nothing but really good hitters and closers for your next six picks. And then it's like in a five round succession, you could just reach a round or two early and get all the other guys. And all of a sudden, you've got the whole starting pitching staff who are going to put up, I think across the board, very good ratios. And you're minimizing the risk of Kirschaw or Bueller or any one of them

because they all have risks. individually, but you've got two backup starting pitchers at all times. When Kershaw doesn't make his first start or he goes on the D. Allen June, you've got the guy who's going to step in and be really good in his replacement. I think this is a really good idea, and I really want to try it in one of our remaining mock drafts. That is fun. I like that. Now, that's a great article to read on CBSports.com, but there's a better one. And it's by Heath Cummings, and it's about his draft strategies.

My perfect draft strategy for points, rotisserie, and head-to-head categories. Heath, outstanding work. Thank you, Adam. I appreciate that. I'm glad you enjoyed it. Yeah, it's good stuff. And maybe something we'll talk about later in the week. Ichero is going to be in the lineup when they play in Japan, which is just a reminder that we've got baseball coming up on March 20th and March 21st. 535 in the morning on March 20th and again on March 21st. So we'll be excited for that.

That's tomorrow, right? That's tomorrow, yeah. Bianchi signed Gio Gonzalez. Are we going to try to wake up? I'll be up for some of it. I'll be up by the fourth inning anyway. Yeah, yeah. Come on.

Wake up. Wait up, Chris. You might try. God, my wife would be so mad if my alarm started going off at 5.30 in the morning. Like, that might, we might get divorced if I did that two nights in a row. Okay, especially to watch A's Mariner's. Scott, Gio Gonzalez, to the Yankees on a minor league deal. What does it mean?

I don't think it impacts. Domingo Hermon's the one we're most excited about, right? It doesn't look like Jonathan Loisig is going to have a spot at the start. And Luis Sessa, I think we've seen enough of him, despite his pretty good spring showing here. So it's mostly Hermann who we're thinking we don't want it to impact. and I mean, Gio Gonzalez is going to have to build up his innings. It's a minor league deal.

So obviously that's where he's going to go to begin the season. He has an opt out on April 20th if he's not in the majors by then. And I think there's a good chance he isn't if the Yankees are getting good production from the starters already there. I mean, the reason he had to settle for a minor league deal is it doesn't look like Gio Gonzalez is a very good starting pitcher anymore. I had a 144 whip last year with a Babbitt right around 300. and as velocity's been down the last couple years,

not missing baths like he used to. Okay, great. So it doesn't mean much. Dustin Bidroyo, oh, by the way, another Yankees. Delam Betancess is really struggling there. It seems to be a bit concerned about him. He's just behind because he got started late in spring training. He's starting like 91 miles per hour,

so I know people are drafting Delam Patensis. Be aware he's having a really kind of concerning spring. Dustin Padraea is going to start the season on I.L. Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt will apparently, platoon at second base, which is annoying because I would love to see Eduardo Nunez win that job, but are any of those second base

options, Padrella Nunez, or Brock Holtz, worth drafting right now? A-L-only. On a standard mix, league, no. Byron Buxton's having a big spring. Is anybody buying in? I think it's

worth moving him up. We've never seen him have a spring like this, so that's nice. But also, He's only struck out four times in 33 plate appearances. It's not just all home runs. It's not just all babbip. He is hitting the ball really well. He's a 1450 OPS in 33 plate appearances.

Now, 33 plate appearances. Yes, Byron Buxton has had 33 good plate appearances before. But given that we were kind of writing him off entirely coming into the spring, it's just, it serves as a reason to draft him, I think. My problem is, and I've been more. more than willing to draft him the entire time. I think he's been in my top 200 since before spring training started. I've got him.

I can't keep up. Like the hype on Byron Buxton from everyone else is so, every time I get ready to move him up 20 spots, everybody else has already moved him up 30 spots. So I've got him right around pick 170 now. I could see taking him in the first 13 or 14 rounds. I can't imagine I'm ever going to get him. Well, his ADP over the last week on NFBC is 150th. He has gone his highest 64th.

Yeah. So. Who would you rather take Byron Bucson or Billy Hamilton? Depends how badly, if I desperately need steals, Billy Hamilton. If I'm just looking for a player with upside, it's Byron Buckson. Okay. Who would you rather take Byron Bucson or Brandon Nimmo? Probably Nemo.

Yeah, I'll take Nimmo. Mm-hmm. I agree. I'd rather take Domingo Santana. Yeah, are we sure Domingo Santana is an everyday player? No. I'm not sure he's good. Yeah. Because they have a bit of a lot, Jam.

Look, it looks like Jay Bruce is going to play a lot. He's been, he was batting third when it looks like they were running their regular lineup out there in their most recent exhibition game in Japan. And that's without Daniel Vogelbach because they were putting Ichero in the lineup. So, I mean, I don't know that Volga. Box going to play that much, I would guess he would play the least of the three, Bruce and Domingo Santana. But seeing as Santana is the one right-handed hitter of the bunch, I can see how he could get squeezed. Yeah, and Malick Smith not playing in these games in Japan either. Okay, just a couple other days.

But you can have Danube block, J. Bruce, and Domingo Santana all in the lineup, right? No. Yes, while Seeger is out. Yeah, you have Vogelbock at D.H. Hanager in center, Santana in left, Bruce and Wright. He's playing first. Edwin and Carnacion.

Or Vogelbach. Oh, he's just going to play first all the time? Oh, then Vogelbach will play first, and Encarnassion will D.H. Well, right now they've been putting Bruce at Bruce at first base. Okay. When Malik Smith comes back. Yeah, that's the question.

Is Malik Smith going to be out for the next 10 days? No, he's. Or is this going to linger? He's supposed to be ready for opening day. I mean, that's at least what I thought. The real opening day. That's where, yeah, he's the one that I don't think has concerns about playing time. No.

So then it's, I assume it's Hanager, Malick Smith, and Domingo Santana in the outfield, J. Bruce and Encarnaccion at first in D.H. Okay. Then you have to. Vocal box, which is. That's for now. But then when Seeger gets back, Ryan Healy is going to be in the mix as well, because right now, That'll work itself out.

All right, all right, forget it. Yeah, Healy's note. I don't think Ryan Healy is taking plate appearances the way from Seantyama. Maybe he's. Domingo Santana. Come on, Domingo Santana got demoted last year. It depends.

If he's 2018 Domingo Santana, yeah, he got sent down. It wasn't. They don't have Christian Yelich Lorenzo Kane. Right, but they have better, they have players who can be better than 2018 Domingo Santana. Sure. I'm done here. We're moving on from the Mariners. We'll see what their lineup looks like tomorrow at 530 in the morning.

Alex Wood is going to start the era on the IL with a back issue. That means Tyler Malley is a good chance to be in the opening day rotation for the Cincinnati Reds. Wood could be back in mid-April. And the Padres are still, according to Ken Rosenthal, interested in Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber. So we'll keep an eye on that, but nothing appears imminent. Get in the bracket challenge. If you need the link, please email me, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. I will send you a link to our bracket challenge.

If you're in first place at the end of this weekend, I know it's only two rounds. you will, I'll pick one of the, it'll be a lot of ties. I'll pick somebody to be in the podcast league. If you're a football listener and you win the whole thing, then you will be in the football podcast league. So let me know if you want in. Again, I'll email you and I'll tweet it all the time as well, the bracket challenge link.

Sportsline.com, sign up right now with the promo code, Vegas. Get the optimal bracket. Get the upset bracket. Get great tournament picks. Get some fantasy advice. Awesome website. Sportsline.com. Promocode is Vegas.

One dollar for your first month. And make sure you're watching on CBS Sports HQ. It's one of our favorite weeks of the year. And you can follow it all live with CBS Sports HQ. It's a free 24-hour sports news network. We've got the tournament highlights, the analysis, the picks, the bracketology, and live shows to help you with your office pools. CBS Sports HQ, it is always on. You can stream it live on all of your devices on the CBS Sports app.

Let's do five big questions. Question one, how do you pronounce tournament? Do I say it weird? NCWA tournament. How do you say it? I say tournament. Oh, that's, yeah, I mean, that's fine. You wouldn't say, no.

Would it be a tourniquet or a tourniquet? A tourniquet. No, it's a tourniquet. He thinks me out to be like I'm a New York, like, Delhi owner. Like, yo, you want some toronto? He's ridiculous. Hey, I'm walking here. Exactly.

Usually I'm against teeth in questionable pronunciations, but tournament. That's how I've always said it. I don't think there's one right. The English language is fluid based on where regional dialects. So I think you're fine, Adam. Thank you. You live your life. My wife and I were talking yesterday.

Isn't it weird that F-R-O-G and DOG don't rhyme? Isn't that weird? What? Excuse me? Say F-R-O-G. that animal. Frog? Say DOG.

Dog. They don't rhyme. Frog and dog, definitely right. No, it's frog and dog. They don't say, no. It's frog and dog. Like, D-A-U-G is how everybody pronounces dog. You don't say dog.

100% rhyme. How do you say dog? Dog. Frog. How do you say frog? Frog, dog. Frog, dog. You see?

They're different. Yeah, you just say dog No, I say it right. I'm picking the frogs to win the tournament. Oh, yeah, Scott used to say Shield, that's right. Okay, five big questions. Why don't frog a dog rhyme?

And why not, why not Malick Smith? Why shouldn't Malick Smith be the centerpiece of your Steel's strategy? He goes a lot later than at Alberto Mondeson. I like it. Jonathan?

You said Jonathan VR? No. Alex Smith. Alex Smith. Okay. The same reason you don't build your lineup around Luke Voight or your pitching staff around Nathan Evaldi. He had one good half season ever in the majors. That's not to say I don't necessarily believe in it.

But it's a single season. Didn't Montessie have one good half season? Right, right. I'm not even telling you. Like, I've made my skepticism of Alberto Mondesie. pretty well known. But there hasn't been quite as much skepticism expressed about Malik Smith. And it's possible he goes back to being a 265 hitter.

And, you know, with his complete and utter lack of power, he might not be worth playing every day for the Mariners if he's a 265 hit. One thing I will say in his defense is the skepticism is being expressed in his ADP. I think his ADP, just looking at Yahoo right now, is right around 150. That's lower than fantasy pros. It's like 154. 112 on NFBC. Yeah, 113 on fantasy pros for Malick Smith.

Yeah. I mean, the thing about at Alberto Mondes, it's an ability to get a steel stud who also provides power, which Malick Smith doesn't. He may provide batting average like he did last year, but it, you know, it's, he needed a pretty high bad, bit to hit for that mark. I think it's just as likely

that he hits $290 as Mondesey hits more than 22 home runs. I mean, I would just say this. Mondesies upside is higher, like the 90th or the 80th percentile, whatever you want to look at is higher. I think there's also a higher chance that Outer Brito Mondes

ends up in the minors at some point. Okay. Second big question. Which ace starting pitcher are you avoiding? And I don't mean like he's going to be a total bus, but you personally, you just, you just don't want them. Scott, let's start with you. Ace pitcher that I'm avoiding.

I always hesitate to take Noah's Sinderguard, just because... Oh, gee, why? He's never really delivered an ace season. He came pretty, he had that 180 inning season that I guess, you know, was close enough with his ratios that we could call him an ace. But otherwise he hasn't done it. And the biggest predictor of an ace for me is, has he been an ace before? On a per star basis, absolutely no, what Cindergarde has.

He always is. But we're pretty deep into his career now, and he's never had that season where it all comes together. I mean, he's thrown 190 and 180 innings in consecutive seasons. Oh, it was more than one season than I thought. No, no, he doesn't. Well, no, he threw 150 in the majors, but combining the minors and the postseason, he ended up right around 100. 90 that year.

Okay. Okay. For me, it's been kind of, and I know we want to move quickly, so I won't dwell on it too long, but I think a lot of his, I wrote about this last week, I think a lot of his injuries have been kind of random. Like, he did have bone spurs in his elbow once, and then he had a lat injury, and then he had a finger injury. Like, those could be connected and indicative of some flaw in no Cindergarde's body or

throwing style or mechanics, but it's. seems kind of like bad luck. Okay, so who are you avoiding, Chris? I don't think I've drafted Blake Snell yet. I don't know if it's as much about avoiding him as just I prefer Trevor Bauer, who's going a couple spots later. I prefer Garrett Cole, who's going right around the same spot. I'm just a little wary of Blake Snell coming off this kind of season. Heath, who are you going? He was too good last year.

I say away from Patrick Corbyn. And I just don't know that I quite buy it. And it seems like in every draft I'm in there, somebody that thinks he's part of the top 12, top 13. Walker Bueller would also fit in that category in points league. I've got him quite a ways

behind where the consensus seems to be on him. Patrick Corbyn's having an awful spring. Oh, interesting. Big question number three. Who is Trevor's story? He is going 20th overall in Fantasy Pro's ADP, which is basically exactly where Scott White has him in both points in Roto. But Heath has him more like 30th overall. Heath, who is Trevor Story?

I think Trevor Story is a very good baseball player that plays in one of the best parks in baseball for a hitter. And we saw what his ceiling is last year. I'm just not sure he's quite going to deliver on that. I'd expect a couple, a few less home runs, maybe a few less steals. and there is still the concern for a guy that made that big of a jump in his strikeout rate that it doesn't stick and if he goes back to being a 30% strikeout rate guy,

he's going to be streaky and it's going to be frustrating. Guys, is he worth a top 20 pick? No. I don't think it's baking in enough of the downside. He did. He is three for three and steals this spring, so that's encouraging to see. But yeah, I mean, it's going to depend a lot on if you can sustain that lower strikeout rate.

It's just, it's rare to find the kind of five-category trick contributor he was last year after the first round. And sometimes he makes it to the third. Yeah. So Story stole 27 bases and 33 attempts last year in 157 games that made him the number four shortstop in points, number two in Roto. if he had only stolen eight bases, which is what he did in 2016 and 17, basically, although in 2016 it was eight steals in 97 games, he would have gone from the number four shortstop in points leagues to number five.

And that's still really good because the top short stops were excellent last year. So he still would have had a great year even if he hadn't been a base year. I thought you were going to say something different, actually. Yeah. I would have fallen to ninth. I mean, look, maybe he would have scored fewer runs as well. That's part of the – I couldn't do that calculation. But if you just –

Yeah, I think that. That would be minimal. Yeah. Just take away the 38 points going from 27 steals to eight steals, and he still would have been a top five shortstop and a really, really good hitter. So I don't know. Maybe you draft Trevor's story and don't bank on him being your steals source. Like, if he gives you it, great.

If not, I think you could, I think you can get 15. Just don't think he's an upside play. I don't think you're banking on it. But he's not really not. upside play in the second round. He could be a first round out. But I just don't think you're looking at him the way you're looking at some other guys in that range and saying, I know exactly what I'm getting from Trevor Story.

What you're doing there is you're thinking he can help me win my league or lose it. It's a high variance play. I think the same thing with that Alberto Monasey a round or two later. That was my next question. Who would you rather have, Story in, let's say, round two or three or Monassie in round three or four? Story. Wow. I think there's basically zero percent chance

a healthy Trevor Story loses his job this year. I think there's maybe a 20 to 30 percent chance that happens down our Berto Mondes. I'll say Mondesie just because I don't want to spend a second round pick on Story. Okay. Hey, Scott, would you rather have Mike Trout in the first round or a discounted Mondes?

This is a real question. Trout in the first round or Mondi in the sixth round. Oh, come on. Come on. I'd rather have trout. I'd rather have trout. All right, he said something terrible about modesty. You all heard it.

Next big question. Joey Vado, 52nd overall, or Jose Ibrahim, 74th overall? I find myself a lot of times in this point in the draft at the end of the fourth round. And Votto, Abrae, Carpenter, are all there. and I'm very happy to just take which one of the three falls to furthest. I think they're all good values right now, but I'll take Abraeu because he's going 20 picks later. Okay. I'll go Vado.

I don't think there's any way Jose Abraeu, even at a discount in the sixth or seventh round, wins you a fantasy league. I think the best case scenario is that he's a pretty good first baseman. And it's, I think it's more true in Roto. I just, I think. there's, what? That he's good in Roto? Well, I think in Roto there's less of a chance that he turns out to be this like really, really good value. I think he can be a pretty good value, but I don't think there's any outcome where Jose O'Bray is a first round value. And Joey Vado obviously was that as recently as the season before last. I was actually going to say just the opposite. I feel like

Jose Obrayu is the one I like to wait for in Roto League, because I feel like his values pretty this proportionate between the two formats since batting average is a big part of what makes him good when he is good. Well, meanwhile, a lot of those other first basemen walk a lot. Yeah, actually, it's an interesting comparison,

Vado and Abraeu, because Vado is much safer in points leagues. Last year, he was like 12th in points, and like 20th in Roto, and Abraeu is better in Roto. You know, these guys are really interesting because of Brayu, Scott and I have talked about it, I think, a lot.

I guess maybe we all have. Like we love his value in the 70s. And if you miss out on all the good first basement, all the great first basement, he's a great fallback option. But he has been, in two of the last three years, probably not worth the 70th pick, especially last year.

2016. Two of the last three? Yeah, 2016. He was the number 11. 11 in points, number 15 in Roto. He only scored 67 runs. He only hit 25 home runs. But it's two of the last three years.

That was the year he had a really slow start. I feel like So, I mean, maybe that's, it's not fair to just excuse it, but I kind of do. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. Like, it's possible last year was the big start of a decline for a brave. I don't see it looking at the, uh, at the, at the, the batted ball profile. It looks. Yeah. Wait, are we talking about a lot of us? Well, but, I'm talking about a break. Well, his hard hit rate fell from 40 point.

to 37.9. And that was in a league context where hard hit rate was up, like four points, I think. So we do have to keep that in mind. His infield fly ball rate, pop-up rate went way up. It was higher. He replaced some home runs with pop-ups. That's the main thing I see. Okay.

Also, he had testicular torsion. Just wanted to make sure I mentioned that. Last big question. Scott, I'm going to give this one to you. I'm going to give you 30 seconds to answer it. Which prospects are worth drafting? I've got a blanking here. So obviously Vladimir Guerrero, Aloi Jimenez, is the highest to, you know, Nick Senzel, Pete Alonzo.

They might make the opening day roster, but if they don't, they'll be up soon afterward. Sounds like Chris Paddock's going to make the rotation for the Padres from the get-go. And Jesus Lazzardo of the athletics might as well. so I think they're all worth drafting. If you go in a little deeper format, Fernando Tatis, I think, is somebody you're stashing with the hope of a mid-season call-up. And Austin Hayes in a five outfielder league,

I think, joins that group. Anybody I'm missing guys? I mean, Forrest Whitley could contribute at some point but it's hard to know when. Kyle Wright, yeah, it sounds like he'll be in the Braves rotation to begin with. I don't think his upside is so apparent that he's like must draft at this point. But he could certainly be a much bigger contributor than being drafted as today.

I don't think he's a prospect. Like Victor Robles is still technically a prospect. Oh yeah. Yeah. He already has a job. Francisco Mejia is still technically a prospect. I could see Keston, Heura. I don't know how to pronounce it.

name. Zero. Second baseman for the Brewers, who had a really nice season last year and has been one of their best hitters in the spring. I could see him getting a chance if the Mike Mustakis at second base experiment goes wrong. Like, I could see if either Mustakis or Shaw gets off to a bad start and the defense is really bad, I could see them kind of moving away from that because they do have a very good

second base prospect, you know, who looks pretty close to Major League Ready. All right, we got to read some questions about categories, leagues, do some late-round picks overdrafted and underdrafted, and I just started a Twitter poll. Say them out loud and tell me, do Frog and Dog rhyme? You see, the way I said it, they don't. Like, they don't rhyme. Yeah, the way you say it, because you say Frog. This is going to go the way your Hotel California versus International Players' Anthem

poll went, where you got like 20% of the vote and you were so sure you were right. Yeah, I am right. It's like the Avengers quote. What's the stupid Avengers quote that you're going to say about this stupid? It's like I know what it's like to feel you're right so desperately and still lose. That's you, Adam, on all of your opinions. What is the international players anthem? Is that what it's called?

Can we just move on? Because I've seen something in the notes that made me so angry that I want to yell at you about it. So I want to get to that. 16 votes all are yes so far. Frog and Dog do ride. I don't This is just not true All right

We gotta take a quick break When we come back Let's find out What Heath is mad about Regarding my notes We'll be right back On fantasy baseball today Okay Heath

What did I do? Well I thought we'd get to it At some point You want to do Overdraft And underdrafted Players at some point Right

Yeah I think in about 10 minutes We need to do that Okay I'll yell then Okay Let's do Let's do these two questions

About Categories leagues And sorry I forgot the name On this email Guys, you've discussed and completed a mock draft for head-to-head categories. It sounds like you were doing a weekly lineups league. What if the league were set up as daily lineups? Would you still continue with the same pitching strategy, top aces, and relief-heavy pitching?

Oh, I think it's even more valuable in daily lineups because not only can you cycle through those guys in your lineup, but you can start adding middle relievers. And then if you get to the end of the week, say Friday and you're really low on wins or strikeouts, but you have a really big lead in the RA, then you can just start adding guys who are going to start on Saturday and Sunday and just try to make up those raw stats. I think there's a lot more you can do in daily lineups. One thing to watch with daily lineup leagues

is what are your restrictions? Do you have to have a certain number of inning pitch? Do you have a max number of starts for your starting pitchers? Or a minimum. Or a minimum. Either one. I like the leagues that don't have any rules as far as that goes,

but if your league has a rule on that, that's the one in what place it could definitely change. And I hate daily lineup leagues. Oh, no, I like daily lineup leagues. I've definitely come around. It's way too much work. Chris doesn't even like setting his lineup once a week. Much less every day. I mean, I don't want to turn fantasy baseball

into a chore. Come on. I like having one of those. It's one. It's a hundred and ninety-day season, I think. That's a long time. That's a really big investment. What inevitably happens when I play in a daily lineup league is I just set each day individually on Monday still.

Like I said it once a week, but I go through looking days ahead to make sure nobody has off days, which means, you know, I'm missing, like, injuries that pop up and stuff. But that's the price I'm willing to pay to feel like I'm still living my life. Sure, I get it. I probably play in the fewest leagues of the four of us. I play in six leagues, and I have two daily lineup leagues, and that's fine for me. But if I were only going to do one baseball league, it would be daily lineups. But I understand you don't want too many of them.

Next one here is from Christian in California. Your podcast helped me draft a very solid team. I feel like I have a balanced roster despite some questionable closer options. But is this a problem? I don't see my categories team stacked in any particular category. I feel like it could be bested by a strong home run or RBI or strikeout team. Should head-to-head categories players aim to have an edge in particular categories or shoot for balance throughout their rosters.

Depends on the scoring format, right? Like if you do one win and one loss every week, then I think you probably... I don't know, I guess you want to stack your side heavily on five or six categories or four in a league where you get one win per week. Because it doesn't matter if you're... if you win 6-4 every week,

that still counts as a win, where if you win 6-4 every week in a league where you get 10... Yeah, let me break it. I'm enjoying this entire... This entire segment has been fantastic. I'm not sure. Yeah, terrible.

Okay, so... If you have 10 wins and losses every week, a 6-4 win every week, you're not necessarily going to be in a great place. Oh, yes, you will. You definitely... Yeah, you're going to be fine. But you're not going to win 6-4 every week.

Okay, this is terrible. Like, you're kind of put back in your own. No, if you're punting multiple categories and you, if you know you're going to lose three per week and you have a bad week in ERA and whip, then you're going to lose. You're pretty guaranteed to lose. And so that's where it comes in. I aim for balance just because I don't. I want to make sure that I. like Chris is saying, you're not,

you can't be sure that you're going to win what you think you're going to win all the time. And if you give yourself that narrow of a path to victory, I don't think it's going to work out well for you. And then plus you need to have, be able to work your way out of a trouble that develops during the season that maybe you didn't account for in the draft. And if you only have one path to doing that.

You know, Heath, you say something. You find it so funny that everybody else is having trouble explaining the intricacies of various formats. You say something. You put yourself out on the line. I'm perfectly fine punting one category, maybe even two. I think this is the one format where you can just, if you want to forget about steals, you can build a team that's awesome in power and batting average and be in great shape.

If you want to forget about saves, or on the other hand, if you want to not worry so much about starting pitching, that's generally the strategy I go with is try to build an elite offense, maybe get one ace, definitely get some upside starters, and then build the best bullpen in the league. So I don't necessarily build for balance, but I don't think that means you're in a bad spot if you do. And once you get past 5 by 5, 6 by 6, if you get to 6 by 6 and if you get to 7 by 7, you can and maybe even should punt steals, because you can definitely afford to lose a category

every week. It just won't make that much of a difference. All right, let's do real quick some late round picks that you got. I haven't done enough drafts. I know we have a mock draft today and I think tomorrow. But one of them at least is on the shallower format. I haven't done enough drafts, unfortunately. But maybe you guys can tell me.

I just looked at ADP, like 300 and beyond for some guys that I like. But I keep ending up with Jorge Soler, Louis Brinson. I'm not saying these are good things. But late after 300, Jorge Saler, Lewis Brinson. I like Brandon Belt. He was very good before his appendectomy. And then after coming off the DL, he had a 572 OPS. It sunk his numbers.

But Belt is not dead. And he goes like 350th. He could be certainly suitable. Can they just trade him? Well, either way. Carroll Park and concussion. It's such a bad park for left-handed hitters that I think he would be probably a top 10 first baseman if he played in a neutral park.

But that part just, it kills power for left-handed hitters so much that it's hard for him to do. He's still good at 350th overall. Especially in a points league. Yes. And a points league, you're not going 350 deep, though. If we're setting 300 as the range, we're pretty much taking like a 12-team head-to-head out of it because that's, you know, 252 players are drafted in the standard head-to-head format. So we're getting pretty well beyond that, which isn't to say Belklinic contribute at some point in the season,

just that you don't have any incentive to aim for him in the draft. Well, I'm sorry I brought him up. This was obviously a huge mistake. Some pitchers. No, it's... I just want to put the format into context here, so... How would Brandon Belt change your strategy in a head-to-head categories league with daily lineups?

Where's the six by six. Oh, right. So if you win, if you're just getting like one win per week and he goes six and four... Adam, Adam, you can't, you can't shame anyone after your dog-frog thing. I guess the way, the way you say, they do sort of rhyme. But the way I say it, they certainly don't. Okay, Tuki, Tucson, Zach Eflin, Luke Weaver, were three pitchers that really stood out his late-round picks that will be drafting.

Who else, guys, who else? Go for it and, you know, make it snappy. Yeah, I like all those guys. I like Michael Paneda. Sure. Luke Weaver. Is it him? Luke Weaver, he already said, I think.

Matt Strom. There you go. Matt Strom definitely fits. I draft Steven Souza so much, and I understand the risks there with him, but he's at 342 over the. the last five days in ADP. He's free. Tyler O'Neill, Ryan Zimmerman, actually,

I think we've kind of cast him off as dead again, even though he was really good in 2017 and really good after he came back from his injury last year. So I'm not giving up on him. I've drafted him as a bench bat multiple times. Okay. And Ryan McMahon is inside the top 300 lately, but you still might be able to get him really late.

Scott, was there anyone you wanted to add? I'm just trying to see if they make the cut. Jeff McNeil has actually moved inside the top 300 barely, but he is somebody I'm drafting a lot in my 15-team Roto leagues. Brandon Lau is basically free, and among a big mass of players competing for playing time in Tampa Bay, both between the outfield and first base and DH, he's been the best this spring by far.

I don't understand why he doesn't get hype more. His offensive potential seems very high. So he's also somebody I've been drafting in those deeper leagues. Ryan McMahon, I mean, he should not be outside the top 300. And I think over the last week he's just barely inside it. That's still not high enough, Ryan McMahon. He's 294 over the last week on NFBC. Yeah, yeah.

And overall, he's like 350. So that's, you need to draft him much higher than that. This guy's going 273 overall. Did anybody say Hunter Strickland? Because how is he not the Mariners closer? When you get to the point where we're guessing who closers are, like Strickland probably is, he's the 35th reliever off the board. Yeah. The appeal to him is you're not guessing.

He is the closer. And I think, well, an interesting thing about him is if you are counting the series in Japan, those two teams play six games in week one, while the most any other team plays is four. I mean, that alone makes Strickland must start. Okay. Good stuff, guys. Overdraft and underdrafted players real quick. Some team name Tuesday. Pokemoncada.

Very good. Javier biased. Bias. Yeah. Aren't you glad you use Dahl? Apparently an old dial commercial. Aren't you glad you used Dile? What's our Victor, Victor, Mesa?

What's our Victor? Very good. The Bieber Fam Club. Beaver Fam Club. One of our, one of our, one of our, listeners drafted Snell, Darvish, and Bader, and he did Snell U. Bader. Yep. It's good.

And then there's Hand U. Yohannis, which is, you know. This is a family program, Adam. Vodoman Empire. Vodomian Empire is a goody. Very good, yeah. The Bauer Rangers. Very good. And the Guriel with the dragon tattoo.

Excellent. It's a good round. Those are solid. Yeah. Good round of team. Solid crop. So let's get to it. Overdrafted players. What did I do, Heath?

You've got a list here of over-drafted players, and the first four names are names that we've all talked about and agreed upon and are being drafted too high. There could be some debate about Ronald O'Cunian, what his upside is, or Javier Baez, and whether last year was real. You can talk about Glaver Torres and Ande O'Har the Yankees. Why in the world is Mitch Hanager on this list as an overdraft? player at 85th overall when he finished 33rd overall in rotisserie leagues last year, and it was essentially the same guy he was the year before. Okay, yeah, so first of all, I did compile a little bit of a list, and it had been the guys that we had talked about a lot.

Acuna 9th overall, we think he's more of a mid-to-late second-round pick. Javier Baez, 19th overall. We're thinking third or fourth round. Glaibra Torres, 58th overall, and Duhar, 81st overall. Those were sort of ones that we had established over-drafted. Hanager is boring to me and he goes ahead of Puig, Dahl, and Conforto

and those are like these three outfielders that we seem to love their upside. I don't think Hanager has nearly that upside. So that's why I think Hanaguer... Does he not have nearly Conforto's upside? I can understand the other two. I could see Confoto hitting 35 homers. I don't think I could see Mitch Hanigar doing that.

I don't know. He's had exactly the same home run to fly ball rate the last two years at 15.8% and maybe that's just what it will always be. But a lot of what comes from upside is just guys having a semi-fortunate year in terms of something like that or Babbeth. And I don't know why he couldn't have one year with a 20% home run to high ball ratio. He could, but I think Conforto's like baseline level could be around that. I think the raw power for Conforto is better. Hanager has a ballpark problem.

He's had about an 800 OPS at home two straight years. It's the same ballpark he's played in the last two years, though, when he was the number 33 player in fantasy last year. Okay, because he played a full season, and he was good. He was very good, but he wasn't, you know, I don't think it was a... Right, I'm not saying you should draft him at 33rd. I think that, I think the three guys that I mentioned... 55 picks later.

I think the three guys that I mentioned that go after him still... So they should be underdrafted. They are. Or they're appropriately drafted, and Hanegers over-drafted. That's how I see it. I think Hanigur should be more like 100th, 110th overall. Well, if you think all those guys have more upside than what Hanager did last year, you think all those guys have second to third round upside? It would be top 25 players in fantasy.

Yeah, I think. Then they're not appropriately drafted around pick 100. You know, because look, they're always going to go, they're always going to finish ahead of closers, right? But it's position scarcity. They're going to finish ahead of catchers in all likely. Well, Raamuto and Sanchez. Like, guys get injured. It's not a, it's not a translation, a perfect translation, where a guy finished.

where he should be drafted. I understand. I'm just, I'm not saying take him at 30.30. Yeah. Okay, so, so what do you guys think other than Heath? Hanager 85th overall is he overdrafted?

I think it's fine. I never take him. I don't think I have a single Mitch Hanninger shared it. That's because I take him at like 65th. Yeah. I also, I'm just not super excited about him. Exactly.

It's not that he's bad. Yeah. Boring. I kind of get what you're saying. Yeah. Like, I'd rather wait for that next. waive than settle for Hanager but I don't think it's

overdrafted necessarily Right Okay Although you did mention Yassio Pui He's going quite a bit higher than Hanager Isn't he? If he is then that's my bad I'm sorry I didn't think he was

Yeah because I think at least on NFBC It's 62nd over the last Oh okay well On Fantasy Pros he's going actually three picks After Hanager But but On Yahoo he's going Three picks before Hanager

Oh and I'll tell you another guy Okay, then forget about Pueek. And FBC, he's going by far the highest Pueg. So then... So then... So then... Let me give you the three outfielders, the updated three outfielders.

A.J. Pollack, David Dahl and Michael Conforto, I would rather have over Hanigur. And they're all... I would rather have... Yeah, I think those guys all have more... At least Pollock and Dahl have more five category potential than Hanig does. All right, you guys take it over. Who else is overdrafted?

I'm just using Yahoo ADP, and I've got four or five. names here. Some of them were the same. So Christian Yelich is going eight overall on Yahoo drafts. And I don't think that's too far from some other sites. I just, I've gotten to the point now where I'd rather have Aaron Judge.

I'd definitely rather have some of those infielders. There's going to be a big drop in his power numbers, likely a significant drop in his batting average, and I just, I think he's better served as a second round pick, maybe even a late second. Edwin Diaz is going

52nd overall on Yahoo. It's not just because closers go really early. He's going a round and a half, two rounds ahead of the next group of closers. I expect him to be very good. I don't expect him to be the number one closer, and I'm not paying a premium for him over the other closers. I had Glaver Torres and Miguel Anduhar on that list. Mike Fultenevich still has an ADP of 120 overall. We've looked at some of the last three days stuff. A lot of times he's going 150, 160. I don't think he should go in the top 200. Then again, I didn't think he should go in the top 150 before he was hurt, and Jay Hap is going 137th overall on Yahoo. I think his NFBC ADP is around 200.

He's fine, I guess, for a late round starting pitcher. I don't think he's going to be a top 25 option, though. Hap has weirdly moved up a lot as draft season has gone on. I don't think we learned anything new about him over the last month, but he's up to 141st over the last week on NFBC, and that's what I'm looking at. I'm looking at the last week for NFBC to try to get some of the latest trends. So I've got three overdraft and three underdrafted.

Christian Yaltsch is sixth overall, just like Heath said. I just, I don't think he's worth the first half of the first round pick. There's, like Heath said, just tons of regression coming, even though he will be good. Zander Bogart's is 45th, which that seems way too rich in a world where you could get, you know, Gene Seguerra, probably three or four rounds later. I just, I don't see the point in that. And then Jameson Tion is 53rd. And like, I was the biggest Jameson Tion fan this time a year ago,

but a borderline top 50 pick for that guy, I think he's good. But that's, that's, that's, that's, he's going ahead of Stephen Strausberg over the last week on NFBC. That's wild. That's another case. That's another case where NFBC is the outlier. among the ADP sources on all the other sites he goes more like 70th Tyone and then three being underdrafted I get the concerns with Bryce Harper not playing much in the spring signing late now has this ankle foot thing although he's playing through it he's been really bad in the spring but

he's 18th overall and we know this guy has number one overall potential he's basically played at that level two of the last four years you're not going to get that kind of upside from someone who's done it before in the late, mid to late second round. So I think he's a great value there. Clayton Kershaw at 60th, given that the injury concerns are not entirely behind him, but he's going to be, he should be in the rotation within the first couple of turns. I think 60th is great value for him. And this is one that I've just disagreed with everybody on this podcast all spring long. Ken Jaws is 149th. I think that's way too low. might just have a mental block that makes it so that he just will have these meltdowns

forever. But every single one of his peripherals, pretty much every year, I think there might have been one bad peripheral season, has suggested that he is one of the best closers in baseball. That was the case last year. The peripherals were, for the most part, very good. I mean, 308 FIPP. That's good. and his strikeouts went down last year.

It was weird kind of his walk. Sure, but Roberto OZuna's strikeouts went down last year, and we're still drafting him as an elite closer. That's true. Ozuna does pitch for a better team, but we have seen a super elite Ken Giles before, and nobody's drafting him as if that's possible.

Well, I'm not drafting him to be super elite because he's not in a super elite team anymore, but I actually would disagree that you've been on on Giles Island, because I have also been very high on Giles, because for whatever, he gave up, I think he had a 0.35 ERA in same situations. He had 26. I don't know if that matter. Well, I think it might.

I mean, I think there's a mental aspect here with Ken Giles and just use him properly, make him the closer, you know, put him in save situations, and he is the closer for them. So, and that goes a long way in 2019. So I would agree with that. And let me just get back to Harper. I know Scott, you got to get in here as well. But is Harper going ahead of Charlie Blackman? I can check that.

I think the answer is yes. No, Blackman's 27th on NFB. So Harper's going ahead of him. Yeah. Which is ridiculous. Charlie Blackman, 27th overall. Thank your lucky stars if you get him there. That is absurd value.

Yeah. I would base my, if I knew I could get him in the third round, I would base my entire draft strategy on taking Charles. Black win in the third round. And then I wanted to, a few weeks ago, I was Harper over Yelich. And Heath, you said you take Judge over Yelich. Scott, let me get you in there. And Harper.

Oh, you would take. Where would you take Yelich, Scott? Would you take Harper over him? Would you take Judge over him? I would take Yelich the highest of those three. Because I feel like, I mean, I give him more credit, more credit for power than I think Heath is. I'm going to set the over under.

home runs at 29 and a half this year and, you know, the rest of his profile seems pretty safe. Right. So he's, yeah, I'm, I haven't had occasion to draft him yet. He always seems to go higher than I'm willing to look at him. But late first round, I think, is appropriate for Yelich. Scott, give me some underdrafted and overdrafted players. So I think the single most overdrafted player, and we touched on this when we were, were doing our mock draft live on Friday is Ahmed Rosario, who is a full 50 picks earlier

than I'm picking him and goes ahead of Billy Hamilton. The reason that's important to Hamilton note is because I'm not sure what anybody's drafting Rosario for other than stolen bases, which Hamilton, I would expect to deliver twice as many. There's batting average and home run upside with Rosario. I wish he would show it. I wish you would show it. He did hit about 280 over the final two months last year, but it was with a very high babbip,

and it came at the expense of whatever little power he had because he basically stopped elevating the ball to put together that 280 batting average. It doesn't get on base much at all. And really, most of the steals came when he was batting leadoff, which he clearly isn't going to do anymore. He's going to bat in the lower part of the lineup. So I'm not, I don't get the Ahmed Rosario hype in the least bit.

He looks super scrubby to me and not somebody who I'm drafting in the middle rounds. All right. So other overdrafted players, I mean, Glaber Torres is one. We talk about a lot. Cody Bellinger, we talked about a lot yesterday. Guys who I just think not enough of the risk is factored in. like people are viewing them with rose tinted glasses, seeing a best case scenario for each of them,

or at least close to it. Underdrafted players, I mean, a lot of these are my favorites. Zach Granky, Jose Brayu, Scooter Jeanette. I think Justin Turner, maybe we don't talk about him enough. Just how studly he is when he's in the lineup. And like especially last year when he overcame the broken handmate bone in his hands, because when he first came off the DL, he wasn't headed for power at all.

And then the last two months, his numbers exploded. And he was, like, I feel like he is as good as any third baseman on a per game base as any of them. Even Nolan Aeronado. If Win Turner's in the lineup, he is that productive in fantasy. And he tends to go in like round eight or nine on average. So somebody I like drafting a lot at third base. Robinson Canoe. I'm not really sure why he gets downgraded so much,

I guess just because he's old, but he has been very consistent in terms of playing over the last few years. The last time he didn't play 150 games in a season that wasn't because of the suspension last year was like 10 years ago or something stupid. And I think that's partially the result of the suspension is why he's being underrated. Yes.

But what we've seen, He's 36, so that's part of it, but he wasn't going 100... What is it 110th overall? Around there, yeah. Last year. Right. He's one year older, but he still hit last year. He was still very good.

I don't worry about, like, whatever he was taking was causing him to produce at a level that he can't sustain. But he's 36 years old and was able to play in 150 games every single year, probably because of whatever he was taking. Sure, but you tend to gain... Players tend to keep... keep those gains. I think they keep the performance gains. I don't know that you're going to keep the health benefits. I don't know what he was taking for how long he was taking anything. Sure. From what I understand, you tend, once you stop taking them, you do still tend to keep those gains. Maybe he won't be able to stay healthy, but at 110th overall, given the potential that he has and how

well he's produced over the last few years. He's kind of an accumulator now. He doesn't have. He doesn't that much potential. Exactly. He is an accumulator. It's a 20 to 25 homers, 70 to 80 runs. We're going to hit 280. Maybe 2080. His run and RBI totals with the Mariners were very high. I mean, like 80 plus every year. He's hit 298, 280, and 303 over the last three seasons too. So 290.

Okay. Definite batting average help. I think definite run help. I'm just looking at the ATC projection. It's 285. 21 homers, 78 runs 85 RBI. That seems pretty reasonable. Okay, so this is Robinson, Kenow we're talking about.

But he is a dinosaur, so. Let me read, and he's usually better in points league because he does not strike out a lot. Let me read an email here. It's an interesting email kind of piggybacking on this conversation. It is from

JD, from a large town in Colorado, with all the microbreweries Heath could dream of. Wow. Yeah. Boulder? Sure. I know you,

guys are not exactly fond of second base this year, but I feel like there's tons of value in the mid-round. Daniel Murphy, he's kind of inching toward the early round. Scooter, Janette, Robinson, Canoe, Travis Shaw, Mike Mustakis. I've been really targeting Jeanette in my mocks, but I'm wondering, why take Jeanette when I can get Canoe two or three rounds later? That's exactly what I was going to say. And I would expect them to produce about the same. Maybe Jeanette's a little safer, but Kanoe might have more upside. I won't be the guy arguing for taking Scooter Jeanette, although I don't think I gave any underdrafted players. Oh, well, we have a few minutes left.

I thought we were all doing overdrafted, and then we were all doing underdrafted, and I did all my overdrafted, and then never came back to me. Fire away with a few names. Speaking of second baseman, yeah, Travis Shaw, 113th overall. At Alberto Mondi, Scott, you need to get in some Yahoo leagues. Mon is he going 68th overall. Why are you fixated on the Yahoo ADP? I don't like, I understand NFPC because you can make it more recent. Because we're catering to a large audience.

We have a lot of... Why don't you mentioned CBS ADP once? No, there's a reason for this. The reason is... We discuss CBS ADP too, don't we? Heath is prepping for an article that he's writing, so... Well, but I also do think there's value in finding places that you can get. either value or nowhere to avoid guys in different leagues because the default rankings,

the default projections are going to be different no matter where you play. And obviously you should play on CBS Sports Commissioner product. It's the only place you play. He's been siding Yahoo ADP in cases where it's normal too. It's not that big to do. Wow, it's really bothering you. You just play into Yahoo League. He's due a job offering that we need to know about.

Go ahead. It's not like a street gang that we have to fight them. We got two minutes left. We got a 120th overall. We got two minutes left. Who's a hundred-twentyth? Michael Brantley. Wilson Ramos is the last catcher going at 155, the last good catcher.

And then Shane Bieber at 157. Okay. It's basically all of Heath's sleepers. About 40 weeks later. Thank you very much, everybody, for listening. Tomorrow, I want to talk about Madison Bumgarner. Why don't you tell me real quick where Bumgarner is going, and then we're going to talk about it tomorrow.

Where's, where's Bumpgarter going? On Yahu, I think? Yeah, I'm sure. On Yahoo, of course. Why not? Thank you for listening to the Yahoo! CBS Fantasy baseball game. It's a lot.

88. Okay. All right, so we'll talk about BumpGarden tomorrow. Talk about some other stuff tomorrow. Talk about our head-to-head points mock draft that we're doing today. That's coming up on tomorrow's show. For Scott, for Crete. Yeah.

Scott's for Crete. I'm Adam. See you later, everybody. We'll talk to you out of the other.