Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/20 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts

Episode Date: March 20, 2018

We start the show with big news as Ronald Acuna heads to the minors (1:30) and Justin Turner (5:50) will be out with a broken hand. When are we drafting these guys? Who replaces Turner for LAD? ... Looking at Heath's sleepers (13:10) including Jeff Samardzija and Taijuan Walker, breakouts (22:00) including a couple of young studs who are being drafted around 40th overall and busts (36:15) including Marcell Ozuna and two interesting 3B ... We evaluate a pitching staff of a H2H Categories league that has no proven ace but plenty of upside (42:35). Is it good enough to win a league? ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today we are talking about sleepers, breakouts, and buss, and we are using Heath stories, and Heath isn't even here. And neither is Scott. It's team cradam. What's up, Chris Towers? What's up, Adam? It's a great day. Did you see Scott got mad on Twitter yesterday because somebody said that cake is bread? No, I didn't see that, but that is something that would get Scott really bad.

Scott was really fed up with the whole discussion. Cake is not bread? No, cake is a sandwich. Cake is not a sandwich. And a cupcake is just an open-faced sandwich. Cake is cake! What are you kidding me? What is that?

Cake is a sandwich. Oh, my goodness. By any reasonable definition of a sandwich, cake is a sandwich. What? Okay, well, we have a big show because Acuna's in the Miners. Justin Turner broke his wrist. We have some notes to get to. But also, we will talk about some of Heath Sleepers, Breakouts, and Buss.

and I guess critique it, but not be too critical. That's not really fair to Heath, not let him defend himself. Scott will come on tomorrow and give his sleepers breakouts and bus. About four of each, and there are a lot more. So go to the website, go to CBSports.com slash fantasy. So Ronald Ocuna to the Miners, and all I have to do is keep him in the minors until April 13th, so basically two weeks of fantasy baseball,

and then they can bring him up and have him under contract for another season. We could all see in spring training he just wasn't. wasn't ready. You're right. We could all see that this guy needed exactly two weeks more of minor league seasoning before he was ready for the majors. And anybody who doesn't see that is just blind. Apparently, well, it's an obvious money thing.

And I'm just going to look up a Cundia's spring training stats for the fun of it. I believe he has like a 1250 OPS. 1247. He's batting 432 with four homers and four steals. He's, and he was amazing in the minor. So, yeah, it's like Chris Bryant. He was ready. They sent him down.

They got an extra year of team control. So you expect Acuna to be up in mid-April? Either the 13th, which is the start of a series against the Cubs in Chicago, or the 16th, which is the start of a series against the Phillies at home. Just depends on whether they want to get him in front of the big Atlanta crowd, or Marietta, wherever the stadium is, or whether they want to just get him up as early as possible. But yeah, mid-April, barring some kind of it.

Well, he only has three home runs in his last four games, so I understand why they would do that. And four walks, eight strikeouts, only eight strikeouts and 44 of bats. That's pretty nice. The rule is so stupid. It makes me angry. It's bad for the game. Don't get angry. It's bad that everybody knows that they sent this guy down.

Like, nobody is under the impression that they actually believe that he's not ready to be a major leaguer. It's stupid. It is. for baseball. Yeah, well, yeah, things have got to change. I mean, these players are under control for just way too long. Yeah. And then by the time they're free agents, some of them are just too old to get the big

country, you know, it's a young man's game, but they're under team control while they're young. That's going to change. They're going to have to change the CBA. And we saw Ronald Acuna's ADP and the discussion we were having yesterday rise to, I think, 94th in NFBC drafts this weekend. I think he's probably going to be a seventh or eighth rounder in the final weekend of drafts.

I don't know if I'm ready to draft him there. I don't know if I've drafted Ronald Ocuna once in a redraft league. I just... I have twice. You're not paying for the upside because the upside is immense. The upside could be one of the best players in baseball right away. He could be like Mike Trout, but he could also be like Mike Trout and struggle in his first taste of the minors. He could be Bryce Harper and just be pretty good.

He could be Justin Upton and just be pretty good. Like, these are all very, very good young players. And not all of them were superstars from day one. I got him for $12 in a $260 budget. This was like three weeks ago when we did the auction. And he went for 12. That's about what Matt Orson and Matt Carpenter, I believe, went for. So, you know, those guys are usually around 12th round picks or later.

That's exactly what Carpenter went for. It's what Connoe went for. That was a while ago. He'd probably go for more now. I like it more in Categories League because of the Steels. And I took him 87th overall in that 15-team rotod draft we did. But everything sort of changes in a 15-team league. We were pretty much out of steals guys, except for DeShields.

So I reached a little bit for Acuna. Yeah, I don't want him in the 8th or 9th round. And the one thing to keep in mind, he's been a very prolific but pretty bad base Steeler in his minor league career. 4-4 in spring training, though. Yeah, look, it's possible that that's a stat that he just gets better at in the majors. He's more judicious. There's better coaching.

There's better film. But he's been, like, I think below 70% success rate in the minors. So it's possible that he's not quite an impact-based stealer right away. But look, there's a chance that he's just awesome. The skill set is ridiculous. The swing is beautiful. He's the number one prospect in baseball for a reason. There are very few flaws in his game.

That's Ronald de Cuneo. Yeah, Justin Turner. Justin Turner broke his wrist. So he could be out. Let's say Chris set off the air six to eight weeks. Yeah, I mean, last year, Freddie Freeman broke his wrist. He was diagnosed with a 10-week injury. He was back in, I think, one day short of eight weeks.

So I think that's probably the timetable. You're probably looking at him missing most of the first two months of the season, unfortunately. And just crummy luck. Like, this guy can't stay held. I know. It's weird. And then a baseball comes after him in a spring training game. And actually, Heath, we're going to talk about his sleepers breakouts and busts. He had Justin Turner on his bus list because he's, I don't think he's ever played more than 135 games or maybe once he's played.

Yeah, once. And it's weird, you know, and he played 130 last year. He was the number 10, third baseman in points, number 12 in Roto. And he had a great year with a 945 OPS, which was an outlier. He is, but he's not that good usually. I think as a hitter, he can be in the discussion for the best third basement. Maybe not like Nolan Aronado, but the next tier. I really do think he is that talented a hitter, but he's just snake-bitten.

So when do you draft him? Obviously, the ADP doesn't make sense anymore. 66th overall. That's round 6 in a 12-team league. But he also represents a gap between a tier drop because it's Turner, 66th, and then Travis Shaw. and Rafael Devers are around 90, if I recall. Yeah, Shaw's 92, and Devers is 100. So there's a big drop between Turner and those two.

And we've talked about it. If you remove Mani Machado, Alex Bregman, and Jose Ramirez, it's not that deep of a position. And then you get to the next group after Shaw and Devers. You're talking Sino Castellanos. Oh, maybe one more guy in there. There's a lot of upside. at third base. I was writing yesterday about Adrian Beltray, who I think is the most undervalued

player by ADP right now by a mile. And you know, you look at the range between where Justin Turner was and where Adrian Beltray is going, which is 9 to 19 at third base. And it's a lot of question marks. A lot of guys who could be really good, but everybody in that range has red flags. I'm very wary of drafting guys. I've talked about it with Yule Gariel. Guys who have hand and wrist injuries, Those kind of injuries tend to ruin seasons. You know, we saw it with Ian Desmond last year. We saw it with John Carlos Stanton in 2016. He broke the Hammettbone in 2015.

2016 was his worst season. George Springer, I believe, when he broke his wrist, had trouble getting his power back. That's what happens. A lot of guys, even if they don't lose, like, their contact ability, a lot of the guys just won't hit the ball with authority. And that's a concern. So when are you going to draft Justin Turner at this point? probably after Matt Carpenter, his current ADPs 148, so probably wouldn't look at him until a 13 through 15 round range and maybe even later, because there's a chance that Justin Herner gets back and he's just not any good.

And this does probably increase the value a little bit of Aeronado, Bryant, Donaldson, Rendon, the guys, like I said, remove Machado, Ramirez, and Bregman. And you've got four third basemen. You've got Aronado, Bryant, Donaldson, and Rendon, before you get to Turner, Devers, Shaw, Beltray, Sinos, Seger, Castellanos, those guys. So it does increase their value a little bit. It just makes it a bit thinner of a position. All right, let's go on and move to Miami considering Lewis Brinson as their lead-off hitter. Just considering it. Cameron may have been obviously a possibility there, but Brinson, what do you think?

Yeah, I think they've tried out of. bunch of different lineups. Derek Dietrich was batting leadoff for a little while. That'd probably be the most interesting one. But Lewis Brinson batting leadoff, the interesting thing there is just he's hitting in a better spot in the lineup, because if he doesn't hit lead off, he's probably hitting like sixth, and that's an awful spot to be in a bad lineup as bad as the Marlins, because probably not can get as many stolen bases, not as many opportunities. If Brinson does bat lead off, and he hits to even a little bit of his potential, you're looking at a guy who's probably going to steal 25 to 30 bases and has 20 homer pop too.

Do you draft Brinson in mixed leagues? Yeah, he should be drafted in mixed leagues in the later rounds. There will be some situations where he just goes undrafted because people forget about him. He's not a must draft guy, but especially if you have a reserve draft, he should be on a roster. Terry Lavello, the Diamondbacks manager, he wants to name a closer this week. It is wide open between Archie Bradley, who has not been. used in a save situation as of yesterday in spring, Brad Boxberger and Yoshihisa Hirano. Now, being used in a save situation in spring, it doesn't really matter that much guys get

in different spots. I saw Kenley Jansen pitch in the fourth anyway. Right, exactly. But it's Bradley, it's Boxburger, and it's Hirano. If you were drafting one today, who would it be? Probably Bradley, just because he's the best pitcher of the group. He's the only one of that group that has a chance to be valuable without getting saves. He hasn't been good in spring training, and his track record of success is very limited,

but what he showed last year, there's more upside here. And Eduardo Escobar is expected to be Minnesota's starting shortstop with the Polanco suspension. And this is a guy who had 21 home runs last year in just 129 games. He had a 758 OPS. He is not great, but he is not terrible. So Eduardo Escobar certainly an AL-only league should be on your radar. And we should probably not forget to mention. We should not mention. I'm struggling here. We should mention something or no? We should, yeah, we should not forget to mention the Dodgers with Justin Turner. Logan Forsyth has become a forgotten man, but he was an above average starting second baseman as recently as 2016 when he hit 20 homers and stole six bases in 127 games. So let's not forget about him.

and I think there's a chance Austin Barnes might play a little bit of second base. He's second base eligible, and there might be like a day or two every week that the Dodgers just say screw it, and they get both Grundahl and Barnes in the lineup. He played 1,500 innings at second base in the minors. He played some third base, so let's not completely ignore the possibility of that. Okay, let's talk about Heath's Sleepers, Breakouts, and Bust. I also want to tell you about our other podcasts on CBSports.com. Go to CBSports.com slash podcast, singular.

You can see a list of all of our shows. Fantasy football today, fantasy baseball today. We have the Sportsline DFS podcast. If you like playing DFS, we'll obviously be talking baseball. As soon as next week, all right. But we have basically an NBA show plus PGA and occasional other topics. But that's Sportsline DFS podcast. Please subscribe.

And the Jonah Carey show is one I don't talk about much. But Jonah Carey has an awesome show. He podcasts once a week. Susan Slusar on, I think last week, she's a beat writer for the A's. She's terrific. And this week, David Ortiz is his guest. So that will be dropping tomorrow, I believe. But subscribe to the Jonah Carey podcast.

And all the other ones, too. College basketball podcast obviously is one you want to hear right now. Heath Sleepers, Breakouts, and Bus. Four of each. I think I have five breakouts, but four sleepers. And we'll start, got to start on team, what are we, Cratham? Yes. Jeff Simarjo, which nearly brought us to.

fisticuffs a couple of weeks ago. Samarja was number 21 in points, number 32 in Rodo, and was better than his ERA last year because he had two terrible starts at Colorado. He gave up 15 runs and two starts at Colorado last year. You take those out, and he had a 442RA for the year, ERA for the year. He had a nice year. A great walk-to-strikeout ratio. 32 walks, 205 strikeouts in 207.2.

So do you think Jeff Samarja is a sleeper? And as I ask you that, I will look up his ADP. I think Jeff Marja is definitely being undervalued based on his ADP. I'm willing to take him well ahead of that. We've had the discussion already. I think he's probably a high threes ERA guy. That's where his various peripherals have been for most of the last few years. Now, he is someone who has struggled to pitch to his peripherals at times.

He gives up a lot of hard contact, a lot of home runs, and that will always be a concern for him. But I think he's a high threes, maybe 381 like he was in 2016. He'll get you a ton of strikeouts because he is one of those guys who's going to pitch 200 innings. Unless he gets hurt, there's no question that Jeff Samarja is going to pitch 200 to 220 innings. And you can't say that about everybody. No, no, you can't. You know, good chance at 200 strikeouts, good, very good whip guy, even in his bad seasons, his worst whip over the last four seasons. This is 1.29. He's been 1.20 or better in three of the last four.

I just think there's a lot to like about this guy. He doesn't have the upside that someone like Jose Burrios might seem to have. But he doesn't have the downside either. You know, there's a chance that Jose Burrios just isn't that good this year. Or Luis Castillo, who we all love and who's going 50 spots higher than Jeff Samarcha, Luis Castillo's probably not going to throw 200 innings, even if he has a good year. And so I think Jeff Samarja is the guy to fall back on at starting pitcher when everybody else is chasing upside. Okay, Samarja is the 40th pitcher off the board according to fantasy pros. He goes about 150th overall. Would you take him over John Gray?

I like both of them a lot. I would probably rather have Samarja. Samarja or Duffy? Samarja. Samarja or Garrett Richards? Samarcia easily. Samarza or Quato. Samarra...

Oh, no! Got to go Quato. Come on. Yeah, that one's tough because Quato does probably have starting pitcher one upside and I don't think

Samarja does, but I like both. I think both are good values. Yeah, I just... I think my beef with Samarja is just peripherals are one thing, but actual production is another.

And he's had six seasons as a starting pitcher. He's at an ERA below 381. Only once. He's often been bad. And his strikeout rate the last three years has been 6.9, 7.4, 8.9. He's only had one season where he was unusable, though. And that was 2015.

The White Sox messed with his pitch selection. They messed with it. It just, it was a bad season all around. But he's been useful all other times. Maybe in spurts. There aren't a lot of pitchers. Like, Danny Duffy hasn't been useful for a long time. Danny Duffy's had one good season.

I don't know. I'm not really looking for useful at 40. I mean, useful is not bad. Look at the guys behind him. It's a lot of guys who useful would be a good outcome for them. Look at a lot of the guys in front of him. That's fine. That's fine.

It's totally fair. Another giant that Heath has in his sleepers column is Evan Longoria. He does not want Evan Longoria to be his starting third baseman. Heath says, though, he is a solid corner infielder. And Longoria is the 22nd third base eligible player off the board, 184th overall, according to fantasy pros. not so interested in him. And I think the reason why is my corner infielder should probably be a first basement.

So you have to get into a really deep league for me to be taking Evan Longoria personally. So the one thing, and Evan Longoria is part of why I like Jeff Samarger, because I think that team's going to be very competitive. He's moving to a bad park, but it's not a worse park than Tropicana for right-handed hitters. it might actually be slightly better. And he hasn't been a star, but he's going to be hitting in a good lineup. He's going to be hitting in a good spot in the lineup, you know, likely behind Buster Posey and Andrew McCutcheon. Those are two guys who get on base a lot.

They're both still pretty good base runners. And so there's going to be RBI opportunities. I think he's got a pretty good chance to get to 170 combined runs in RBI, 20 plus homers. You know, he won't kill you with the batting average. He'll be between 270 and 2. He probably... He is a jag. He is just the guy.

True or false? It's not untrue, but he's being drafted well below that level. Like, there are other guys who, I'm not sure, are better who are going ahead of him. I don't really... See, that's the thing. I don't... It feels low. 100 and, what I say, 84th overall feels low, but look who's going ahead of a Matt Carpenter.

But that's 40 spots ahead. Yeah. Eduardo Noon. There's really a big... gap at third base. I think it's appropriate because it's like Jake Lamb, and you could argue Longoria over Jake Lamb with the humidor. Yes, I would.

Fair. Adrian Belchrey. I would argue over Adrian Belchrey, no. I would much rather have Adrian. But I think Adrian Belchre is probably going 60 spots too low. Eduardo Nunez, it's a steals thing. Yeah. Matt Carpenter, you're going to take over Longoria.

And then the guys that go after Longoria are Scooter Janette, Ehuyenio Suarez, Todd Frazier, Mike El Franco. I actually think his draft spot makes perfect sense. I think so too. I don't necessarily think he's undervalued, but if he falls below this point, I'm happy to take him as a corner infielder. Two more sleepers for Heath are pitchers that you can get fairly late. Taiwan Walker and Matt Harvey. Do you agree that they are sleepers? He might have picked my two least favorite pitchers in terms of just the skill set that they both have. Matt Harvey's going so late that there's no risk. The only risk is that you start him enough time. and he's so bad that he just ruins your peripherals, but that's pretty unlikely. The velocity has been pretty impressive.

He's been working mostly 93 to 95 this spring. There was that one weird thing early in the season where Bobby Cox got a lot of press for talking nice about Matt Harvey, and I didn't really understand why we thought that was such a big deal. But, you know, you watch him pitch and he just looks like the same guy he was last year. Like the stuff looks fine, but he can't command it. He's leaving everything thigh high. He struck out nine batters against the Marlins the other day. And that was really impressive.

He struck out the final five batters. You've got to take a chance on Matt Harvey. There is nobody you're taking that lady. I've written as much. But he's probably bad. The most likely outcome is that he's bad. I'd have to disagree. I would have to say that we...

He's been bad for three years. I'd have to say that we just don't know what the most likely outcome is. Because, yes, he was bad for three years. He was also, like, credible for three years. Sure. But he was hurt. He had surgery. He's had Tommy John surgery.

He hasn't been good in a while. He hasn't been good this spring. He hasn't been good this spring. He hasn't been good this spring. Matt Harvey. His ERA's, I don't know. Well, he's been, there's boys. When I've watched him, he has not impressed me.

But, yeah, I agree. He's going late enough that you should take a chance. just, I'm very skeptical. And Toma Walker, I think, is a good value. I think the humidor changes everything for him because he is not, I don't think he's a very good pitcher. It just doesn't get the swing and miss that you need from someone who doesn't have great control, but that humidor is going to save him a handful of home runs every year.

It's probably going to turn a couple of doubles into fly ball outs. And all of a sudden, you're looking at someone who should be a high three's low fours, ZERA guy who can probably get to the mid-3s again. I don't think last year was sustainable, but now because of the humidor, that does change how I view him, yeah. Taiwan Walker or Cole Hamels? Taiwan Walker. Taiwan Walker or Drew Pomerantz?

Probably Walker. Walker or Snell? Snell, for sure. Okay. All right, let's talk about Heath's breakouts. Gary Sanchez. Actually, this is a really fun list. Some very good young players.

Gary Sanchez on the breakout list Definitely had a breakout last year Can he be even better Gary Sanchez? And obviously he can play more games Because he played 122 last year He missed about a month Yeah, that's the thing is if he just plays every day I think you're probably looking at a guy

Who has a pretty good chance to hit 40 home runs While hitting 280 and just I think he's so far and above the rest of the packet catcher That yeah, I think I think there's a realistic chance we're talking about Gary Sanchez as a first rounder this time next year. So you said plays every day? Yeah, it doesn't get hurt. Okay, okay.

So let's talk about, I did the math this morning, and I thought this was interesting. Let's talk, give me a best case scenario games played for Sanchez. 140. That's exactly what I did. 140. Take his numbers from last year. We'd all be very pleased with what he did last year. If he did that over 140 games, 278,

38 homers, 103 RBIs, 91 runs, not a great walk-to-strikeout ratio, 46 walks, 137 cases. This is his 140 game pace, 23 doubles. But 38 homers, 103 RBIs, 91 runs. 473 fantasy points for Gary Sanchez if he had played 140 games at last year's pace. How does that measure up? Not as good as I thought would have made Sanchez a bit. number 10 first baseman in points leagues with 473 fantasy points.

That's behind Carlos Santana, Ryan Zimmerman, and Justin Smoke. It's just ahead of Cody Bellinger, who obviously didn't play all year. But 473, it's like 150 points behind Joey Vado, who was number one. It's about 80 points behind Jose Ibrahim, who was number four. So I think it's the walk-to-strike-out ratio. Maybe he's more valuable in Roto. but if he just does what he did last year, that's why I can't justify Sanchez over Freeman, Rizzo, Vado, Goldschmidt,

because based on last year, if he played 140 games, he really doesn't. I thought that he would come closer in fantasy points to those four first basemen, but he really wouldn't. That's also, you're comparing 140 games of him to, what, 158 of Jose? Yeah, exactly, exactly. If that's on a per-game basis, he probably gets pretty close to Jose O'Brien. But you really can't look at catchers on a per-game basis because they won't play as many games.

But how many fantasy points with the number five catcher end up? I know. Obviously, that's where you look at it and you say, well, okay, Joey Votto versus the number 10 first basement is, you know, 180 points or whatever you said, right? Yeah, something like that. The gap between Gary Sanchez and the number 10 catcher probably isn't 180 points, but in terms of the relative, you know, he's probably 50% better. Oh, yeah, he's head and shoulders. That's where it really comes in is that there's only three catchers that we think are good.

There are only three catchers who would start at another position. Yeah. And Buster Posey doesn't look that dissimilar from what Joe Mauer did last season. And I don't think anybody thinks Joe Mauer is really a starting for his basement. So let's talk about when to take Sanchez then. He is going 24th overall. Yeah, the earliest is probably around 20th. I don't think I would take him over that group of first baseman that you mentioned,

Freeman Votto, Goldschmidt, or... Who's the other one? There's another one. Rizzo. Rizzo. I wouldn't take him over that group, but I'm fine as soon as that group is off the table. And that would be like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez and James. Adi Martinez.

And I think he's probably, I would guess, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor outscored him last year, but if you do the 140 game pace, it probably gets pretty close for Lindor. And I don't think Lindor stands above the pack at shortstop the same way. Well, I know he doesn't. He doesn't stand out above the pack at shortstop the same way. Gary Sanchez does a catcher. So I think Gary Sanchez is worth over Francisco Lindor. I think I would, I think I'd be more like.

to take Sanchez in a 10-team league, where you're just trying to get the most elite players that you can. Francisco Lendor scored 561.5 fantasy points. Yeah, it's better than Obrayo. He had a really big year.

He was awesome, yeah. Okay, other breakouts. How about these two? Lump them together. Alex Bregman and Andrew Ben and Tendi. We've seen some good production, but this is mostly great pedigree, great lineups, opportunities here.

And they go in similar spots, Bregman and Ben Intendi. Any beef with them being on the breakouts lists? I do not agree with Andrew Benintendi. I've come around on Alex Bregman. There are a lot of positive signs. He's going to hit second in a really good lineup. His numbers hitting second. He stole more bases, and stolen bases are largely about, you know,

opportunity and intent, as Scott White likes to say. Ben Intendi, I think he's being overdrafted. I think there are very similar players who have done it before who are being drafted after him. Christian Yelich being the biggest one that I just, I don't see much reason to reach for Andrew Benintendi. I get that we think he's going to be better than he was, but he hasn't proven he can hit lefties in the majors. His numbers against lefties are disastrous. And, you know, he's not good enough against righties. He's neither good enough against righties to make up for that, nor is he able to hold his own

against lefties yet. It's early in his career. He may just improve that skill, and there's really high upside here. I think he can win a batting title before his career is out. I think he can be a 25-25 guy. But he's a left-handed batter in Fenway. That's a tough place for lefties to hit. And I just, I think he's probably not there yet, and we're drafting him as if he is. Well, that's interesting. If you don't think he's there yet, Bregman and Benetennettini are actually back-to-back picks, 40th, and then about 42nd overall. They're back-to-back in ADP. And Bregman is shortstop eligible.

What's great about Bregman is that, you know, just based on what he did last year, you're talking about a top-four shortstop with a 284 batting average. He was eighth at third base, but he was third and points, fourth in Roto at shortstop. And, you know, if he hits at the top of the order, 43 games last year batting second, 43 games. He had 28 RBIs and 25 runs. So that's great. I mean, if he's done that over 155 games, it's 101 RBIs and 90 runs. But Bregman batted sixth or sevenths 42 times.

He batted 8th, 48 times. So you're looking at a lot more counting stats if he stays at the top of the order. Ben and Tending, like, you don't know. You can't really, with Ben Intendi, you can't really pass on him to get Yelich, in my opinion. because I think by the time your next pick comes, which might be off the board. He's going eight picks later or six picks later. I'm not sure there's much reason to think Andrew Benetendi is going to be a lot better

than Lorenzo Kane, who's going much later. Except that Benintendi was at one point the number one prospect of baseball. Yes, he's a very talented hitter. I don't doubt that. But to be clear, Andrew Benetendi is going to hit second or third in the Red Sox line probably so there's a lot of value there that should be a very good line up as well okay the the big thing for me is just that that 583 OPS against lefties that is so bad he has not show he has four extra base hits in 164 plate appearances against lefties that that's not going to work like

it's not a babbip he has a 283 babb he just hasn't shown the ability to hit lefties and if he figures that out he can be very good but right now I don't think he's there yet we're You're paying for 90% of Andrew Benintendi's upside, and I just don't like doing that. Well, let's see, where was he in outfield in terms of draft position? Because he was, Benetendi was 15th and points, 17th in Roto among outfielders last year. Okay, so even if he just does what he did last year. Yeah, he's 11th right now. That's a little high.

And that's with, you know, Cody Bellinger might be at first base. Chris Bryant is going to be. at third base. So he's, if you take Chris Bryant out, he's 10. Sure. Okay, then. Next one is really, I would say, not controversial, but difficult, difficult.

Joey Gallo. Joey Gallo, 24 years old, he batted 209, but in the second half, he batted 229 with 20 home runs in 64 games. And he had 41 home runs in 145 games. There's no doubting the power. There's a lot of doubt about the batting average. and all the strikeouts.

I can see this one going either way. Here's one thing to take into account with Joey Gallagher. He only had 532 plate appearances last year. The Rangers are talking about batting him second. He just didn't play every day for the first couple of months of the season. They were sitting him against tough lefties, but he's actually been pretty good against lefties in his career. He doesn't show big platoon split,

which is surprising given how much swing and miss there is in his game. If he had second at the top of that lineup, there's going to be a ton of opportunities. He could get to 650 plate appearances next season. And if all he does is repeat what he did last year, but with 650 played appearances, you're probably looking at 100 runs, 100 RBI, and 50 homers. So remember earlier I said with Justin Turner's injury, third base gets thinner, and there are three third baseman after Sean Devers. He was the third, I couldn't remember.

Sineau, Castellanos, and Gallo. And you can throw, I mean, Musacus and Seeger, they don't go much far, much later. But I think the way you evaluate third base might come down to how you feel about Sano, Castiano, and Gallo. Because if you love even just one of them, then you should be fine waiting. But you have to take them in the 10th round of a 12-team league. They're going, not all of them. Scott makes that point all the time that Castellanos's ADP is 114th, but that doesn't mean that you can't get them later, which is it's just true.

It's true of every single player. Right. But that group, you know, maybe it's top 14 or 15 round. No, maybe it's top like 13 or 14 rounds for sure. And are you comfortable with, I'll just lump them all in. Sinoa, Castiano and Gallo, because spoiler alert, Suno and Castiano's on Heats bus list. Are you comfortable with them as your starting third baseman? No, only because I know I can get Adrian Beltrate two rounds later,

but that's not what you asked. I'm comfortable with Castellanos more so than Sano actually at this point, although Sino has been crushing the ball in spring training, and it's worth noting that I'm comfortable with Joey Gallo as my starting third baseman. You know, there are, there's a lot of positive talk about him in Rangers camp. Part of the reason why they want him batting second is because Delano DeShields is a good on base guy who would get on base ahead of him, and possibly remove the potential for a shift.

And so now you're looking at maybe Joey Gallo doesn't lose quite so much in his babbip. He was like a 250 babbip guy. If he's a 270 babbip guy, then you can start seeing, you can squint and see him hitting 230. And then if he hits 230, Joey Gall is a much more valuable player.

He's still such a drain. Yes. Yeah, you have to do a lot of work to make up for it. But, you know, I did it. draft the other day where I took Starling Marte and Degorne in the second and third round. That's a perfect team to add Joey Gallo in the 10th round or whatever. Sure. All right.

So, Heath's sleepers are the ones that we mentioned were Samarja, Longoria as a corner infielder, Taiwan Walker and Matt Harvey, breakout scary Sanchez, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, Joey Gallo, and then he puts Ronald Acuna in there and he puts upside for everybody. And for Acuna, upside was, quote, the sky. So well said Heath. And let's get into Heath's bust in just a second. This is the first time and a long time, though, that I got to tell you about Indochino, the best suit I own, not even close.

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Marcelo Zunoh, well, you know what, why don't we just transition right into the third basement? I think that makes more sense. Then we'll talk about Ozuna. Castellanos, who Heath says is a fine player to fall back on, but 118th overall is too high. And Miguel Suno, I just don't think the ADP factors in a very possible suspension. And, yeah, what do you think about Castellanos and Suno going in the top 120 picks? I fully agree with both of those. Nica Castianus is absolutely a fine player to fall back on, but you shouldn't reach for him.

I think the most likely scenario is that he just kind of repeats last season, and that's a fine player. But it's not that much better than what I expect Evan Longoria to do. There's probably more upside with Castianos than Longoria, but... Do you see the appeal that some people think that Castianos is about to break out? He had a great second half. Sure. Yeah, I definitely see that. the batted ball data is all, you know, Comerica, but also there are arguments to be made.

And Mike Petriello at MLB.com has made the argument that the stack has data, the batted ball data at Comerica Park is actually fine. And that there are other reasons why Tigers hitters seem to have such, you know, outlier batted ball data without it necessarily being, found in their numbers. And one of the arguments is that it has a very generous batters eye. I don't know. That is, but that's something that players have said, that the Tigers players feel a lot more comfortable batting at home. So it's not necessarily true that it's totally unsustainable. There is upside there. There is also the downside that he's playing in a really bad lineup that's going to have, I can't even remember, Leonis Martin batting leadoff. That's their leadoff hitter.

Okay. So it could be a really bad Tigers lineup. Miguel Cabrera doesn't bounce back. Victor Martinez doesn't bounce back. There's a chance that he has a good year and drives in 80 runs anyway. All right, two other busts. One of them is Shohei Otani, and Heath has pretty much nailed that bus pick already, is Shohei Otani, and he's nailed Justin Turner, because so did Justin Turner got nailed

by a pitch and broke his wrist. That stinks. It does. But Otani, I don't think we need to spend more time on. The other bust, the interesting one I think is Marcel O'Zuna. And Heath expects his batting average to drop about 30 points. He says he's fine taking him in the seventh round. You have to take OZuna in the fourth or fifth round right now of a 12-team league.

And he was a top 13 hitter last year. He was the number five outfielder. My argument for OZuna is that he did this. Last year he batted 312 with 37 home runs at 924 OPS. 924 OPS. First three months of 2016, he had a 920 OPS. And then he played hurt second half, and his numbers dropped. So I don't know.

Yeah, fourth round might be a little too early. But Ozuva has had, in the last two years, a year and a half of elite production. Yeah, I actually, I think he's more likely to hit 285 than he has to hit 315. I don't think he's a 300 hitter. But 285 is good. Yes. And 33 to 35 home runs is good. He's hitting in a good lineup.

There's a chance that this is a legitimate four category contributor in Roto. He doesn't strike out that much, so he's not going to hurt you much in points. He walks a decent amount. There is a lot to like about him, especially when you look at some of the guys being drafted in his range. You know, Ben Intendi, I've already laid out my doubts. Reese Hawkins has one good third season. So do you think Ozone is a bust, or do you think he's okay at his ADP? He may be a little overdrafted.

I look at the ADP, and I see that Christian Yalach is going six spots behind him, and Nelson Cruz's eight spots, and Starling Marte. And I might rather have those guys, but I think if he's being overdrafted, it's maybe by a round. Okay. So we're a little higher on Ozuna, I guess, then. Yeah, it's not like he's being drafted to do what he did last year. If we thought he was going to do what he did last year, he'd be a second round pick.

Yeah, maybe third. Yeah, probably second. Top five out, number five outfielder. Yeah, number 13 hitter. Like, that's someone that goes 17th. Yeah, but a deep position. But, yeah, sure. All right, so you check out the rest of the column

on CBSports.com slash fantasy slash baseball. It's team name Tuesday, Chris Towers. Woo! We've got DeYoung and the Restless. Very good. Yes. Whips don't. lie.

Very good. Very good, Shakira. Why, wits, don't lie. Whips, whips. Yeah, wits. Draft with Mary.

No, wip is better. Come on, it has the word hips in it. Come on. Show hey the yasmani. Show hey the yasmani. Yeah. Gallo pudding pops.

Okay. I like that. There's always room for galo's humor. Gallo's humor. That's good. Two scopes of raisins. Sure. Yeah, I like that one.

And that is it. That's what we have for Team Name Tuesday today. Two scoops too many. I want to bring... Shut up, Chris. God, I love raisins. I had a cinnamon raisin piece of toast today. It's delicious.

It's just like, how many other foods, like, you leave out? And then people are like, wow, that's brilliant. You just leave them. You just let them sit for a little while. And you're like, wow, that's better. That's gross. No, it's not. You do it with bread, and it gets mold.

You do it with dry fruit and you're totally fine. That's disgusting. You're an old man. Chris, what did I send you earlier this week? I'm very excited for my blue apron on Thursday. I sent them some of getting in. Philly cheese steaks. Oh, I was just about to say I made the Philly cheese steaks last night.

Is it good? One of the best blue apron meals I've ever had. It was so good. Oh, incredible. All right. I want to talk about a couple things. I want to talk about a team that one of our listeners drafted. And I'm very interested to see how Chris feels about this team.

is I do not like it because I don't think the pitching staff is good enough. And I am sorry to Dave, who is one of our loyal listeners, he tweeted me his team. It is a head-to-head categories league, but you have to start five starting pitchers and three relievers. So when you have to start five starting pitchers and three relievers, I mean, you really need saves. He has sort of punted saves. He has Archie Bradley, Brad Peacock, Tyler Glassnow, and Zach Britton. I guess Glass Now is RP eligible. Now the hitting is very good.

Granda at catcher, Matt Olson at first. It's Categories League. So D. Gordon, Mani Machado, Carlos Correa, Cody Belling, Starling, Marte, Tommy Fam, Raphael Devers. Wow. Yeah. Not great at catcher in first base, but great hitting overall. Acuna, Chris Taylor, Albies, Moncada, and Zimmer on the bench.

A lot of speed. Great lineup for Dave. So he sacrificed pitching. He loaded up on hitting. But I don't know, man. I just don't think you can win with this pitching staff. What do you think? Here are the starting pitchers.

Aaron Nola. Shohei Otani, Kenta Maeda, Blake Snell, Mike Clevenger, DeNelson Lamet, and Louise Gohara. I'm going to read it again. Aaron Nola, Shohei Otani, Kenta, Maeda, Blake Snell, Mike Clevenger, Denelson LeMette, Louise Gohara. What do you think? So if you're going to punt on starting pitcher, I think you want to do two things. You want to avoid unproven guys who have a lot of helium.

I think Shohei Otani is the poster boy of that. So I don't love that pick. If you had made a different pick there, it would be really easy for me to. And I'm going to talk myself into this team because I wrote a column a couple weeks back where I talked about 12 late round pitchers with ace upside. Guys going outside of the top 200 at that time. A couple of them have pushed up ahead. and who I think have the potential to be top 25 starting pitchers.

And I had Kenton Maeda on that list. I had Blake Snell. I had Nelson Lament, and I had Louise Gahara. I think I might have also had Tyler Glassnow in there as well. So I think there is a ton of upside on this pitching staff. And Scott loves Mike Clevenger. And this is why I brought this team up because he has, if he's going to take late round picks, he's taken the right ones.

Yes. Yeah. But you and I philosophically disagree. I think on what you can actually get by doing that. Because I do think you need some more established players and you can't just rely on upside. Because good luck with all of those coming true. Obviously not all of them are going to hit.

And just the fact that they're probably not ready for a huge innings workload and there's probably going to be some bumps along the road. I will say. I think it's just too much speculation and too much upside, not enough provenness. There was a really good piece on fangraphs. I think yesterday talking. to Chris Archer. I think the headlines just Chris Archer has some questions about pitching.

And Chris Archer's talking about the raise four-man rotation, which they really are going to go with. But he was talking about how, you know, they have two pitchers who just get through the starting lineup twice. And it's Jake Ferrea and I can't remember the other picture. Evaldi? Evaldi, yeah. Just get through the starting lineup twice. That's all those guys have to do. and then the bullpen will pick it up. The fifth starter is going to be a bullpen day. They're going to have four or five relievers

that they just shuttle back and forth between Durham and Tampa. And then he said they have two starting pitchers who are just going to go out there and pitch as long as they can be affected. And it's Chris Archer and Blake Snell. I thought that was really interesting because I don't think we've talked about Blake Snell

as a guy who can get to 200 innings. The Rays are going to let him if he pitches well. Now that's a big question mark with him. because he hasn't been an efficient pitcher, because he struggles with walks. But if he makes the leap that a lot of us think he can, he does have that upside. He has the chance to be this year's Luis Severino. This pitching staff is Nola, Otani, Maeda, Snell, Clevenger, Lament, and Gohara. Let's replace Otani with, what, Alex Wood?

Is that fair? Honestly, if you replaced him with Samarja, I would feel really good about this staff. I still wouldn't be there. I still would need my ace. I can't live on. I think Erinal is pretty much an ace. I don't think we can say that. He's never been an ace.

And he's in ace. He's so often an ace for two months. And then one of the worst pitchers for five weeks. He didn't really have that issue last year. Did he? Yeah, I thought so. Okay. But I could be wrong.

I can go ahead and check that. No, if you replaced Otani with Masahiro Tanaka, or James Paxton or Garrett Cole, three other guys who are going in the same range, I would definitely feel a lot better about it. Yeah, and I'd feel better about it too. I'd still probably not feel totally comfortable. But also, you've got to get saves.

I mean, your relievers should be closers. Because you're going to lose that category now. But that really was the pitching staff I wanted to talk about. Let me... Okay. No, I think that's a perfectly fine just because pitching is so volatile that you've got, I think,

an entire starting pitching staff of guys who I don't have to come up with some outlandish tail to get them to be a top 25 pitcher. Yeah, but you got to have some top 10 pitchers. I think Enola could absolutely be that. So Nola last year, through 168 innings, he had a 476 ERA in his first nine starts with 47 strikeouts and 51 innings. And his last 18 starts, he had a 3ERA, 137 strikeouts and 17. In that stretch of 18 stars with the 3ERA, he had a four-start stretch.

He'll have five or more runs in three of those four starts. And that'll happen, I guess, to any pitcher. But he's just a little inconsistent, a little inconsistent. My bigger concern with him is the elbow. He's had elbow flare-ups, I think, each of the two years. So that's the bigger concern for me. And, you know, Denelson-Lamette doesn't have a third pitch. He can't get lefties out.

Louise Gahara is currently hurt. He has some conditioning concerns. There's a little C.C. Sabathia in his profile. Oh, really? And that can be good. It works for C.C. Sabathia. But right now he's hurt. He's not expected to be in the rotation to start the season.

I think he'll get there eventually. I think he'll be very good. So let's read some emails and tweets to finish our show today. From Matt Robinson. By or sell, U. Darvish, puts up super ace-like numbers with the Cubs this season. Sell, but it's possible. It's more than possible.

Yeah, I want some you, Darvish. I just think he's better than 386 ERA. He's been better. Before Tommy Johnny is better. He's never pitched, really, to his peripherals, especially since coming back from Tommy John. But, look, Super Ace is that like Corey Klooper 2017? No, I don't think he's going to have a low two.

ERA. One year he pitched to his peripherals. 2013, Darvish was the number five starting pitcher in points, number four in Roto, with only 13 wins. I mean, that's criminal. 13 and 9, 283 ERA. 80 walks, 277 strikeouts in 209 and two thirds. 27 and 203rd.

That was in 2013, not even the strikeout environment we have now, and a 1.07 whip. That was the best season. He could be Max Scherzer with a worst whip. I think Darvish could be a lot better than Chris Archer and Robbie Ray, and you get them very similar value. What do you think? Yeah, I think they're all kind of the same guy. But Darvish probably is more of an inning speeder, so I guess, I don't know. I think they're all very similar.

Okay. He goes actually after Robbie Ray before Carlos Martinez and Chris Archer. All right, thank you for the tweet, Matt. Aaron from Milwaukee. I'll cut to the chase. My championship title is now in question from last year. I was the number one seed and going into the last day I knew I had the tie-brose. so I sat my remaining players knowing this would lock up my win.

This is being called Bush League. Do you agree? I call a poppycock and these sore losers need to be chastised. Any input to help alleviate the tension would be great. He sat his guys on the last day of the season. He locked up the win. It's 100% Bush League, yeah. It's not Bush League.

It's a strategy. No, it is. It is, but make a rule. Like, that's how you combat it. You don't retroactively decide that something was illegal when you didn't have a rule about it. You make a rule now moving forward. That's not allowed. If you want that, or if you don't, that's fine. I don't think it's Bush League. It happens all the time in categories leagues. Yeah, I do it. It's Bush League. I think it's Bush League. I think it's as Bush League as the

all-R-P strategy. Could the Yankees, you know, in Game 162, just decide to not show up because they have a half-game lead over their competition? No, of course they couldn't. No. Of course they couldn't. They have to play the game. But could any team ever just start an entire roster of relief pitchers for this season? I mean, they could, but they never would. That's a different thing. I think it's equally as Bushley. I think it's equally as gimmicky. I play in leagues where you have to let, my home league at least, you have to have a legal lineup. That's it. I mean, I'm not opposed to that. All right, Charles Tweed. Has there been any discussion on what to do with the first week, which is typically eight days, but now 11

days. And yes, I actually started a league yesterday. We're drafting right now. We're doing a slow draft. It's an 11-day week. Very easy setting on CBS. I think we have a new setting, Chris. I'm not sure if this is new or I just missed it before. But if you go to your schedule, there's a checkbox to make the All-Star break a two-week period. And I think you should. Oh, you absolutely should. I used to do it manually, but now you can do it automatically. Yeah, you should not have a three-day week. especially if you play in a league where you get one win for a week, like in a points league or in head-to-head categories where it's just winner takes all. Oh, I'd be more against it in a head-to-head categories league.

I'm against it, you know, everywhere. But in a head-to-head categories league where every category is a win, and you could easily go 10-0, 10-0. The other guy doesn't have anybody starting or something like that. Yeah, so make the All-Star break part of the following week and make it a 10-day week. Josh from St. Louis. I just have my draft last weekend.

I need some saves out of these three. Who would you recommend? A.J. Ramos, Ryan Madsen, or Brad Boxberger? The answer right now is Brad Boxberger, because he's still in contention to be the closer for his team. In a week, the answer may be very different, but right now that's the guy to add. Did I forget the name, and he's from Turlock, California? Or is his name Turlock and he's from California? I have no idea if Turlock is a place.

Let's find out. What does Freddie... Herlock is a place. Yeah, so this is a guy from Turlock. Sorry, I forgot your name. You are now named Turlock. What does Freddie Freeman being eligible at third and Anthony Rizzo being eligible at second due to their values? Does it move them ahead of the big four starting pitchers and into the first round?

I don't think Freeman being eligible at third base changes his value much. maybe a little bit. But Anthony Rizzo is probably a more impactful one. I still don't think I would move him into the first round, but it certainly moves him up the board. We've gotten a number of questions about this. Just because I've always been the one who says that third base is kind of shallow when you remove those three guys that I always talk about,

I do think it matters for Freeman. And I do think it matters for Rizzo. In fact, my answer was going to be Rizzo eligible at second base makes him definitely in play to be the first the first baseman taken ahead of Goldschmidt. Yeah, I think that's fair, but I think Goldschmidt is sometimes a borderline first rounder. And then Freeman being eligible with third,

that moves him up too, especially with the Turner injury. Would you take them ahead of the starting pitchers? Did you answer that part? I think that's the right range. I'm not sure if I would take them. That's a really tough question to ask because I'm not usually the guy who takes the starting pitchers. How about yes and roto no and points?

Okay. This is Dan from Grafton, Massachusetts. Looking to draft a third baseman. Who has more upside the next few years? Colin Moran or Jamer Candelario? I would say Colin Moran has more upside. This is from Ryan and Boston. Dear Eddie, Chris, Kurt, and Lane.

Those are four of singers. Yeah, we were talking about that one yesterday. Yeah, well, off the air. Four singers of bands that are too popular for Chris. I like one, yeah, I like one and a half of those bands. Ooh, or you better like Nirvana. Nirvana, yeah, Nirvana is clearly the best of that group. And, like, I like Pearl Jam, but I like them a lot less than I'm supposed to, I think.

I'm 100% with you. Not really a Pearl Jam guy. I don't know why. Like, really good live band, a lot of great singles, but I don't like, their albums are just fine, I think. That's going to get me in trouble. I'm going to get angry tweets. The songs that I like by Pearl Jam, I love.

And I was the one who tweeted that Jeremy is better than smells like teens sport. Which is ridiculous. Totally accurate. The question from Ryan is, I have Bryce Harper in a 5x 5 OPS Categories League. There's serious interest across the league in Harper. My two best offers are Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco, or, and this one you can't take anymore, Christian Yelich and Justin Turner.

So forget that, but would you trade Bryce Harper in a 5-5 OPS Categories League for Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco? Yeah, yeah, I think I would. Yeah, that's what I said. I actually responded to the email, I agreed. He needed some pitching, so it's a good haul. Dave and Lakeland,

Dear George, Thomas, Abe, and Teddy, because you guys are the Mount Rushmore of Fantasy Sports. Oh. I never miss a podcast. I haven't heard you guys talk about Sparps too much this year. I know you mentioned Mike Minor, but I only play in head-to-head formats.

Sparps have been a big part of my championship runs over the last few years. Can you throw out a few of the names of good RPs that have a good shot at ending up in a team's rotation during the year? Brad Peacock is probably the best option. Joe Musgrove? Joe Musgrove is one that I've been targeting a lot. I think he's still in contention for a rotation. spot. I think he's back from the shoulder injury, right?

I'm not sure. I'm pretty sure he is. I know the pirates made cuts today, and neither he nor Tyler or Glass now was a part of the cuts. So, you know, when they traded for him, they did so with the expectation that he would be in the rotation. So as long as he's healthy, he should be in there. I like him a lot. So Musgrove, Peacock, and Minor are like the big three. Archie Bradley could end up in the rotation. Yeah, that seems like a long shot at this point, though. Josh Hader's got a chance. Josh Hater, although they are talking about him as just a reliever this season, which is disappointing.

This is the worst sparse year I can remember. It's not been great because last year we had Danny Duffy. Alex Reyes is someone who could gain relief pitcher eligibility and then become a starter. It wouldn't be a surprise if he was used as a reliever for the first month that he's healthy and then gets moved into the rotation. So he's another one. Okay. All right, and a couple more questions here. This is from Enzo.

Daily head-to-head categories league plus OPS and K-per-9. Three outfielders, blah, blah, blah. Who should he keep and who should he release? These are his outfielders. Jesse Winker, Stephen Piscotti, Jackie Bradley, David Dahl, Dustin Fowler, and Matt Kemp. I don't know how many he wants to keep, but I guess who are the ones that you'd be most excited to keep

out of Winker, Piscotti, Bradley, Dahl, Fowler, and Kemp? Dustin Fowler. Piscotti if I need immediate help, because I think he can be a starting caliber player, even in a three-outfielder league. And Winker and Dahl, if I need upside. Fowler, if I need steals, but he's pretty well on the list. And finally from Scott, where would you draft Greg Holland

in a saves plus holds league if he's teamless? Very low. I don't know, saves plus holds. That kind of eliminates some of the risk. Kind of. He's not getting either right now. No, but he's got a chance to get saves. He does have a chance to get saves.

He has a chance to get hold, but I don't know. Like, is this guy going to sign at any point? Yeah, I'll predict that he signs. Probably not within the first 20 rounds. Okay. Chris Towers, thank you. Team Crow, Adam. Thank you.

We'll come back tomorrow, get Scott White on, give you his sleepers, breakouts, and busts. And we'll talk to you then. Thanks for listening, everybody.