Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/23 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Ten Rounds of ADP
Episode Date: March 23, 2018To make sure you're ready for your drafts, we'll go through Average Draft Position with our thoughts on each of the first 10 rounds. But first we'll cover the major MLB news (4:35) including Jeff Sama...rdzija's injury, noteworthy Spring Training performances and more ... How to draft in shallow leagues (16:32) and players we want more shares of (18:18) ... We're debuting the brand new Fantasy Baseball Syllable Game (24:40) before getting into ADP (26:26). Find out who is going too early and who is going too late. Plus, we announce the Podcast for the People League contestants (1:00:30)! ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Transcript
Discussion (0)
Mazama and Machado Orbado or no.
All right, time for the biggest draft weekend in fantasy baseball history or something like that.
It is the biggest draft weekend of the season, so we will get you ready.
We're just going to go at Fantasypros.com, look at their average draft position,
and go through it and decide what's good and what's bad.
You can also see specific format ADP on our website on CBS.com slash fantasy.
But I am Adam with Heath and Scott.
No Chris today, unfortunately.
Good morning, guys.
Friday, happy Kokomo Friday.
Oh, we play Kokomo on Fridays?
It's been a long time since I've listened to a Friday show.
I listen to every Friday show and every other show because I want to see what we're
doing and see how we can get better.
We can get better by doing more syllable talk.
If you missed it, the final two and a half minutes of yesterday's show were just gold.
Scott thinks that the word junior is three syllables.
And a lot of people think that fire is one syllable.
I don't really get it.
We're going to play a syllable game later today, so get excited.
But, all right, quick note, we're going to be starting the show earlier, beginning some point next week, maybe like Wednesday.
And you'll be getting the podcast a little bit earlier in the day, hopefully around 10.30 a.m. or 11 a.m. earlier than 11 a.m. Eastern.
So look forward to that.
And, of course, email us at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.
Like David W. did. David W. has our email of the day.
and he says, dear Pat, Ron, J.D. and Len.
And I don't know who they are.
I don't either.
Like, J.D. seems like a very modern name, but the other three are, like, throwbacks, you know?
Yeah, all right.
So we'll have to put that on the Google.
I'm listening to the March 22nd show yesterday's show.
Sounds like I did Scott's experimental strategy in my actual draft.
I play in a 10-te-to-head points league.
I took Clayton Kershaw with the third pick of the first.
first round. However, I grabbed Anthony Rizzo and Jose Ramirez as my second and third round
picks because the pitchers were flying off the board. Now, this was, of course, got a 10-team league,
not a 12-team league, but still, he did get Rizzo and then Jose Ramirez, which would have been,
what, 23rd overall. You took him, I think, 21st overall, or maybe second. So, yeah,
I think, like, just even though this is a 10-team league, the fact that pitchers were flying
off the board does go to show you, if you expect in a points league, 10 or 12 teams, pitchers
to be going very, very early, and you take Kershaw with third overall pick, you could probably
end up with two pretty damn good hitters.
Yeah, no, it makes a big difference, 10 versus 12.
And I've always said the shallower league, the more you sell out for the scarcities, because
it's harder to find an advantage anywhere.
And so I think it makes sense in this format.
Look, I mean, Rizzo, in this format, head-to-head points, is a first-round caliber bat.
Jose Ramirez, if he is who he was last year, is a first-round caliber bat.
And then you got Kirshan on top of it.
So I can't complain about the way this turned out for old David W.
David W., thank you for the email.
And he says, by the way, a cassidia is absolutely not a sandwich.
And he is 100% right about that.
Email of the day number two is from Jason.
Dear Dante, Vinnie, Andres, and Larry.
Okay, those are Rockies.
Like Street Bombers specifically.
Yeah, okay, there you go.
I'm building a 5x5 roto team constructed of only the most handsome players this year.
And my draft is in a few days.
Clearly, I'm considering taking Harper, Thor, and Stanton with my first few picks.
I'm curious to hear your sleeper break out and busts for Team Handsome.
Definitely not going to give any busts for Team Handsome.
I think a sleeper would be Cole Hamels.
You can get him pretty late.
I had a friend who had a crush on Cole Hamels.
He's in a hair commercial.
So maybe put him on your roster.
I think most baseball players are handsome.
So, you know, they're professional athletes.
Clip that.
That's a highlight right there.
You're right, right?
They're good shape.
They're better looking than me, most of them.
They're better looking than all of us.
We didn't want to get into the bus.
Exactly.
You know.
Jason, I like your creativity.
I like the idea.
All right, Heath, let's go through the news and notes.
Jeff Samarja expected to start the season on the DL with shoulder soreness.
I already won the battle against Chris Towers.
How about that?
I'm still working on the, uh,
Pat, Ron, Jady, and Lynn, sorry.
I was wondering why you were so quiet.
Yeah, I think it may have something to do with, like, number one picks that didn't actually play.
Maybe Lynn Byest and J.D. Drew and there was...
Pat Burrell?
Pat Burrell, maybe.
I don't know who Ron would be.
But that's my guess right now.
So I'm sorry.
Jeff Samarja, yes, this is bad.
I still think he's worth a late-round pick.
It's still a little bit fuzzy as to how serious.
this is, but not good at all.
Could they be Phillies selected first overall?
JD Drew, I think, was selected by the Phillies the year he did.
Burrell played for the Phillies, obviously, but he was selected first overall.
Anyway, it's not important.
I'm very intrigued.
Yeah, so Samarja, look, he is shoulder so soreness.
Maybe it's the minimum.
We don't know.
How many rounds would you knock Samarja down in your drafts?
Oh, quite a ways.
Really?
I was much higher than Scott was in the first place, though, I think.
So I'm going to knock him down below where Scott was, but...
Well, wait a second.
Didn't they get reclassified from a shoulder injury to a strained pectoral muscle?
Yeah, yep, yep.
Yeah, so...
Yeah, yes, you're right, sorry.
Which, you know, there's a good chance just...
He'll shut it down for 10 days, I think, was the last I saw.
And they'll probably need to work back up after then.
So there's a good chance he missed most of April.
I think it's a similar timetable to like Irvin Santana, so that's where I'm about
That's where I'm dropping Samarja.
And Santana is not making progress.
Like May 1st seems like an absolute pipe dream right now for Urban Santhana.
Okay.
If they were both healthy to start the season, who would you prefer Samarja or Santana?
Samarja by a mile.
I want to say by a mile, but yeah, I prefer Samarja.
Okay.
Stephen Sousa will start the season on the DL with a also pectoral.
Or maybe, wait, did I just screw it up?
Does he also have a pectoral strain?
Yeah, they both have pectoral strength.
Yeah, my subheader in today's springtime.
takeaways piece is going to be what the peck you know what i meant to do a segment on that i meant to do
a segment on rating all of scott's subheaders because you are very creative you love the puns like
let's just all right let's do this now impromptu okay impromptu give me your last some of my best ones
have been recently but all right all right you know what why don't you we'll do the news and notes
you find me an article that you think has some of your better subheaders and we will rate them on
the show okay uh so look we talked about susa yesterday but chris owing's and gerard dyson will get more
playing time. Dyson's a, you know, very good steel source when he plays. Owings actually is like a 20
steals guy too. So, I don't know. It's not that exciting, but it is what it is. Michael Conforto is
going to DH today. He continues to make progress. When are you drafting Michael Conforto? And I'll tell you
his I'll be ADP boy today. Yeah, tell me that, because I want to make sure I say earlier than that,
because I very much want Michael Conforto now. Third round. He's going in the third round.
Yeah. He's going 193 overall.
Hmm
That
Yeah
I could
I could take them
Earlier than that
Sure a little bit
Yeah I'm
Look he had two home runs
In a minor league game
He's going to play a grapefruit league game today
Like
I think Adam said
Um
Like I think the most
And I didn't have the rosiest outlook for him at all
I was looking at this track record
We only know pitchers who've suffered this injury
But they were all ruined thereafter
So I didn't
It's hard to know what to expect from a hitter
but he looks healthy and he's rehabilitating faster than I think even more optimistic projections said.
So mid-April seems possible now, in which case you're going to get five and a half months from what was one of the biggest breakout hitters last year.
Yeah, I'll invest a late round picking that.
I think the good question here, right, is let's say there were no injury concerns with Michael Conforto.
He were healthy in spring training and he was starting.
When would you draft Conforto?
If he was healthy, if he was fully healthy, this never happened, you're saying?
Yeah, yeah.
How good would he be?
He would be between my 15th and 20th outfielder probably.
Oh, wow.
Yeah, I would definitely be lower on in the net.
I would probably have him somewhere in the 25 to 30 range.
27 home runs in 109 games last year, not a steals guy.
Pretty good plate discipline, about one walk for every two strikeouts.
And did fine against lefties.
I mean, he only batted at 212, but he had a 444 slugging.
He has a career 578 OPS against lefties but showed improvement last year.
All right, so that's Conforto.
Wherever you get him, it's probably going to be a value.
But I don't know, maybe start looking 150th overall or so.
You can start considering him.
Is that fair?
Yeah, a little later.
Oh, guess what I'm about to do.
Heath, check out the editorial league.
I am selecting Mr. Ion Hap.
10030th overall.
Right in front of me.
Yeah, you were going to take him.
That is rude. You are a rude dude, Adam.
I've got a lot of exposure to him, so I am perfectly fine with you being in on the party as well.
Good stuff. Welcome to the party.
You are generous heat. Very generous.
Just read an article this morning, Joe Madden, happy with his approach.
He's laying off some tough pitches. Ian Hap, not Joe Madden.
It is not confirmed that he is going to be the everyday lead-off hitter, but he will lead off a good amount.
And if he's good enough, he will be the everyday leadoff hitter, it seems.
All right, Nelson Cruz is back in the Seattle lineup.
Three starting pitchers had terrible starts yesterday.
Do they matter?
Charlie Morton, Tanner Roark, Mike Minor.
I'm most worried about Minor.
This is not a minor concern that he really has not been an effective starting pitcher for, what, four years?
Yeah, I think minor concerns one of the subheaders.
Yes.
No, I think I went minor issue, actually.
had one good year as a starting pitcher and it was 2013.
Yeah, but, you know, he was hurt after that and he was building up to that.
Like, I've been the high guy on minor and by high guy, I mean, I'm willing to invest a late-round
picking him when it usually goes undrafted.
It is worth noting on St. Patrick's Day, he pitched a minor league game, struck out 11 in five
innings.
So, like, there's something there, clearly.
Well.
Only one good Cactus League start.
But I think we're usually excited.
excited when the stud reliever tries his hand at starting.
We're usually excited at the potential that presents.
And I feel like that excitement is somehow missing for minor,
even though he's been successful as a starter in the past.
So you'd think it'd be, that would help it.
I think the problem for me is that he's thrown, what, 700 innings in his career?
One of those seasons was really good as a reliever.
One of those seasons was really good as a starter.
But it was a buildup to that.
Like, that was a high in problem.
who showed some promise, kept getting a little better, and then had this big breakout season.
But it was five years ago.
It was, yeah.
He's thrown a lot of shoulder.
77 innings in the last three and a half years.
And I think his secondary arsenal is a little different from that than he had to change it because of the shoulder stuff.
But obviously it worked for him in relief last year.
I think the thing is, like, the Rangers don't have anybody they like as a closer.
They want Alex Claudio in a flex role.
They don't think Keone Keller is durable enough for it.
Mike Minor transitioned to the closer role for the Royals down the stretch last season.
If the starting thing doesn't work out for him, I don't know why he doesn't become the front runner for saves.
They're paying him a lot, so it makes sense.
All right, Yuenes-Sest but his homeward twice and doubled against the Nationals.
Part of that was against Tanner Rowark.
The Cardinals may open the season without a set closer.
So what's your quick take on that?
It doesn't sound like it's, you know, we're going to mix and match based on matchups.
It's just we haven't figured it out yet.
And you can understand.
I mean, Gregerson's been hurt most of the spring.
The general consensus among Cardinals beat riders seems to be, it's probably going to be Gregerson.
But Cardinals are leaving the door open for some maneuverability there.
Dominic Leone, somebody they seem to like a lot.
So he would be, like I think in those leagues where several middle relievers get drafted,
Leon needs to be one of the highest ones.
But I'm still targeting Gregerson.
Does Kirby Yates have a chance to close for San Diego?
Something was going on in Scott's Twitter feed.
Yeah.
So Andy Green, the Padre's manager, kind of threw us a curb ball yesterday
by saying Bradhand isn't somebody he's necessarily saving for the ninth inning.
Now, that sounds like what you hear from a lot of managers these days
where we want our best reliever in the highest leverage situation.
which
oftentimes a high leverage situation
doesn't present itself
until the ninth inning.
So I think it's going to be a situation
where he's still clearly
the team leader at saves.
But Kirby Yates
is going to get some saves too,
it sounds like,
because on those days' hands
pitches the eighth,
green single,
Yates out as a potential
ninth inning guy.
So he will get some saves too.
He matters in
in leagues where non-closers matter.
Does he, though?
Because, like, he's not that good.
He had a great strikeout rate, 14Ks per night.
He did have a great strike rate, right?
Yeah.
That's it.
He's had a really bad career.
478 career ERA was terrible in 2015, was terrible in 2016.
The only thing he did well last year was get strikeouts.
He had a 1.10 whip, which really, I mean, if you're going to stream a non-saves guy,
you want a much better whip than that.
So, I mean, maybe you're hoping that with 14Ks per 9 that there's something there
with Kirby Yates that he can have a breakout year.
The way I remember it is, and I'm pulling up the stats now,
yeah, first half he had a 248 ERA,
and September he had a 180 ERA.
It was just a ridiculously bad August,
which kind of, like, you know,
we're giving Greg Holland a pass for that,
and I understand Greg Holland has a former track record,
but Greg Holland also is, you know,
we're talking about nothing,
cost here for eights.
We're pretty much talking about nothing.
Bryce Harper could bat leadoff apparently.
Do you guys buy that?
Not at all.
Yeah, that's stupid.
Don't bat him lead off.
That would really piss me off as an ad of beaten owner.
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We will get to ADP review in just a few minutes.
Quickly, a few important questions.
We've talked about drafting in deep leagues.
What about shallower leagues?
What about 10-team leagues or shallower?
How do things change for you there?
Similar to me.
I wrote earlier this spring about roto leagues
and how I really am not that concerned with floor I want upside,
and in 10-team leagues, you've really got to shoot for the moon.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And I think drafting Kirchow, third overall,
is actually pretty defensible in a 10-teen points league.
Yeah, yeah.
And I would go harder after Gary Sanchez in that format.
You know, I wouldn't pass up Altuvae for Kirchaw, obviously,
because Altuvae is one of those players who stands out by a large amount of the position.
Let's see, who else fits the bill?
Like a shortstop?
Well, like, how about Correa or Machado versus the four first basement?
Yeah, I'd probably go the shortstop route in a 10-team league.
I'd be more likely to do that than in a 12-team or deeper.
See, that's interesting.
It's a little counterintuitive because you don't have to worry as much about position scarcity,
but it also makes sense.
Because you could say one argument could be like, well, it doesn't really matter what position they play.
Just in a 10-team league, you're going to be good at every position.
So just take, except maybe catcher, just take the guy who's going to put up better stats.
And the first baseman will probably put up better stats than Correa.
Yeah, but the thing is everybody's going to be good at most every position in a 10-team league.
So you've got to figure out the ones where you can actually be better than everybody else.
Okay.
I mean, it's definitely an interesting way to think about it.
Who do you not have enough shares of as you've done drafts?
You're like, I wish I had more of this guy.
Ozzy Albies.
Yeah?
Yeah, me too.
I actually, it's not published yet.
It's going to go up today.
But the 16 players, I keep drafting.
Scott White keeps drafting.
And I really wish I could put Ozzy Albee's on that list.
He's on my breakouts list.
I think he is going to be...
I think there's a decent chance he's like a top five second baseman this year.
But he always just goes like a round or two earlier than I'm ready to pull the trigger.
And I mean, the thing is like with Maryfield is actually on that list.
Scooter Jeanette is on that list.
I have other second baseman I like a lot.
I just wish I could diversify a little more with the worst.
one who seems the most buzzworthy industry-wide.
I'll say Travis Shaw.
I'm sorry, Scott, are you going to reach for Albies now?
You're going to get in there a little earlier?
Are you willing to maybe, quote-unquote, reach?
I go into draft thinking this is the one where I'm going to get Albies, and it just,
I don't know.
I mean, like, I'm satisfied getting with Merrifield in round seven, so pretty much if he's there,
I'm always going to take him.
If he's there, and obviously I don't have like an Altuv or Jose Ramirez yet, or Dozier or whatever.
And then it seems like Ozzy Albies goes in that same round or so.
So I don't, yeah, I mean, it would have to be me willing to draft Albies over Whitmeryfield, I think, to make sure I get him.
And I haven't been willing to do that yet.
All right, Heath, go ahead.
It's Travis Shaw.
I don't know.
I may have him on one team all year long.
And I won him.
But part of the problem is third base is extremely deep.
And so I, unlike Chris, I do factor in positional scarcity just a little bit.
And I seem to have the third baseman rank too low.
And even though I'm pretty high on Shaw, I've got it in my number eight third baseman,
he still goes before I'm willing to take him.
And I do think there's a good chance that he is better than he was last year.
Third base is, yes, it is deep.
I've said many times that it's kind of shallow removing Machado Ramirez and Bregman.
But it's both to me, which doesn't make a ton of sense.
But I feel like the high-end guys are really good and really safe.
And then you get to the point where there's a lot of risky players, but they're all pretty damn good.
Well, but there's a ton of – like it's really interesting because you've got – like in Roto, Eduardo Nunez could be a super stud once again.
You've got Adrian Beltrae that's there in the 12th or 13th round.
You've got huge upside guys like Gallo and Sineau.
And then you've got also really, really – what I feel like are pretty safe guys in SIGER,
Rostakis, Longoria, Castiano's.
We kind of know what those guys are going to be.
Yeah, it is pretty deep.
It just, it is.
I guess it feels a little top-heavy to me.
It's almost like outfield to me.
With Aeronado and Donaldson, maybe, and Chris Bryant?
I don't know.
You know what?
I'm not going to get into that.
And do you downgrade closers in a saves plus holds league,
which I'm seeing a lot of, by the way, saves plus holds?
Do you downgrade closers?
I think you have to.
I mean, the closers are still better than the holds guys because there are more saves.
Well, the saves leaders definitely have more saves than the holds leaders have holes.
I shouldn't say there are more saves than holds because a lot more pitchers are accumulating holds.
But you know what I mean.
It really depends on whether it's a league where you get to choose how many starters and relievers you use or if there's only two RP spots.
If there's only two RP spots, I'm not sure those hold guys are going to have much of an impact.
I got some of these subheaders whenever you want to...
Yeah, hit me with it.
Do that.
All right.
So when I was writing about Matt Carpenter on the comeback trail this spring,
I had the subheader Carpenter Ansee.
That's a 10.
Yeah.
When I was talking about...
Like Carpenter Ancy.
When I was talking...
When I was reacting to Mike Clevenger and how excited I am about him,
I went with the headline My Clevenger.
Like Mike Levenger?
That's terrible.
That's really awful.
You had like 15 minutes to do this.
When I was writing about Jack Flaherty's awesome spring, I went with the headline high comma Jack.
Like hijack?
Yeah, like hijack.
Wow.
That's a one.
Why didn't you, you should have let Adam do this.
Yeah, apparently.
But you know what?
The worst they are, the better they are.
All right, how about this?
Writing about how different Amir Garrett has looked this spring than last season.
A mere difference.
A miraculous turnaround.
You don't know about that one?
Five.
Five.
Five is fine.
Yeah.
Last one.
Last one.
All right.
Apparently I'm not a good judge of my own subheaders here.
No, they're funny.
I just want to get to ADP.
How about when Brandon Belt was showing signs of a clear turnaround this spring
after missing most of the second half last year with a concussion.
And we were worried, you know, what kind of carryover effect would that have?
I went with the headline, concussed out.
That's pretty good.
That's a six.
Okay.
The first one was the best blood.
Yeah.
Did you mention it?
I wasn't paying attention because I was still trying to figure out the names at the top of the podcast.
But did you mention that at some point we're going to announce the Four of the People League?
No, I didn't mention that.
We are going to do that at the end of the show.
Oh, what about this?
Stephen Mats was awesome early this spring.
More like Dormats.
You mean he was awful or he was awesome?
He was awful.
He was awful.
Dormats?
I set it up wrong.
Sorry.
I love the commitment.
I love the commitment.
Basically, every player you write about, you give him a cheesy headline, and it's terrific.
Yeah, yeah, I try.
All right, Heath, real quick, let's play the great syllable game.
Oh, oh.
Oh, his favorite one.
David Dahl.
healthy, David Dahl, you know, struggling at first this spring to come back from the ribcage
injury last year, Porcelain Dahl.
That's pretty good.
That one's better.
I think you could be like a joke writer.
You just need somebody to deliver them for you.
All right, Scott, how many syllables in Encanacionio?
Incarnazion is Incarnasi.
Five.
I believe that's right.
Yeah, that's right.
Good job. One for one.
Incarnation.
That's how the internet says it.
Okay.
So you got to write.
Good.
One of the other ones.
Oh, I had texted you a list.
Did you not?
It was texted?
Okay.
I'll blow up the text.
Quito.
Johnny Quedo is three syllables.
I knew you weren't going to like that one.
Quato.
It's Quato, guys.
It's not Kuwaito.
Two, right, Adam?
I'd say two, yeah.
Okay.
Samarja.
This was actually one that came up on Twitter last night to me.
This is really tough.
Samarja.
Now,
Samarja.
I feel like there's a subtle fourth syllable in there.
Cam Bedrosian.
Cam Bedrosion.
That one does seem like three to me.
Okay.
Jerry's familiar.
Familia.
We're just going familiar or Jerry?
Familia.
Familia.
Four.
That one actually does feel like four to me.
Familia.
Familia.
I'm pretty sure.
That's four.
I think you could, I would accept either one.
Familia?
Familia.
Familia.
Familia, last one.
Quedo was obviously the most incorrect.
So far.
Quetta.
Corric Nebel.
Not Quito.
Corey Kenebel is three.
Knapp.
Yeah.
I think that one's right.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
All right, thank you for playing the syllable game.
Let's get into average draft position.
I will go six picks at a time.
We do 12 team leagues here, so we'll do round by round, but half a round by half around, I guess.
All right, round one.
Mike Trout, Jose Altuve, Noan Aeronado, Trey Turner, Clayton Kirschaw, Paul Goldschmidt.
All right, so first of all, this is Roto ADP, or Categories ADP.
And Mike Trout, Altuve, Aeronado, Trey,
Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Paul Goldschmidt, there you go, that's your top six.
I can't argue with the top four.
Obviously, I put them in a little different order, but I can't argue with that.
Both Kershaw and Goldschmidt feel early.
Yeah, Goldschmidt, I do wonder.
Goldschmidt was third before the Humidor, and he has steadily dropped down to six,
so I wonder what his real ADP is.
When would you take Paul Goldschmidt?
12.
I have him 10th in Roto, where the Cesarterner.
steals matter more and 11th in points.
Okay.
And Kershaw and Roto, when are you taking him?
Isn't he like eighthish in both formats for you guys?
Yep.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
All right.
So apparently in Shalder League's, I'd take him third in points.
Apparently.
Could.
Yeah, for sure.
Troutoutoutouet, Aronado, Turner, Kershaw, Goldschmidt.
Seven.
Harper, Blackman, Betts, Stanton.
Four outfielers in a row.
Harper Blackman, Betz Stanton, Scherzor-Klobber, sale.
I'll go 13, because it's sale is 13th.
So again, 7 through 13 is Harper, Blackman, Betz, Stanton,
Ford Outfielders, followed by three starting pitchers, Scher, Kluber, sale.
That jibes with what I'm seeing, for the most part.
I wasn't sure Stanton would be ahead of the pitchers.
But I think that's how I rank them.
So, yeah.
Yeah, I think, I mean, I would put Harper, Black,
and Betts ahead of Goldschmidt and Kirshaw.
I think bets, especially at 9, is just an enormous value because he's got number one overall potential.
Yeah, that's better in a points league, but that doesn't mean he's not great in a Roto League,
but I get maybe a little safer in a points league because of the plate discipline and the plate appearances.
All right, so we are now through 13 picks, and that was an interesting run.
Four outfielders, three starting pitchers.
So let's start, you know, just for simplicity sake.
13th overall is Sale followed by Correa, Chris Bryant, Mani Machado, Joey Votto, and Aaron Judge.
All right, so it's Sale, Correa, Bryant, Machado, Vado, Judge.
I mean, all those guys, I'm trying to see something that really stands out to me as, man, that's dumb, and I don't see that here.
I wouldn't take Votto ahead of Machado or Judge, and I would put Machado ahead of Corrador.
But yeah, there's nothing like dumb.
It's, it's, it's, we're definitely, like, these have been vetted enough at this point
in draft prep season that, um, all the, all the oddball picks have been kind of squeezed out.
Now, I do have different preferences like, like Heath would.
Like, I, in most cases, I think I would take Votto ahead of Machado.
Um, but like we were saying in the shallower league, maybe not.
We've been asked, you know, who's the most likely to be a bust?
You know, just looking at the top 18 picks.
Nobody really jumps out at me.
I mean, the pitchers, it's hard to imagine all four of those starting pitchers are going to be great,
just because that's the way starting pitcher is.
Maybe they'll be great, but one or two will end up on the DL or something.
Scher really dealt with some nagging injuries last year.
Judge, in a points league, could be a little.
A little.
I mean, I think it could make a case for any of these.
You could make a bust case for any of these guys.
I guess, but none of them scare me.
Judge scares me a little bit.
Yeah, I mean, Judge is the one, like, Judge is actually on my bus 2.0,
not because I think it's a high percentage chance he busts,
but because it's enough of a percentage that the bottom just falls out that I almost never take him.
Judge would not be on my bus list in a 5-by-5 league with OBP instead of batting average.
He had a 420 OBP last year
And like a 280 batting average
So he does walk a ton
But yeah
I mean
If anybody asked me to critique their first two picks
And it were two of these 18
I'm not gonna complain about any combination
I'm really not
I feel like we're all on the same page there right
These are great players
Yep
Okay
Unless you reach for one of the second rounders in the first
Yeah
Well we haven't quite gotten there
I don't think
Oh sorry sorry second rounders in the first
Okay right right
Yeah
I could understand taking Correa or Machado in the first.
Yeah.
Like, Joey Votto was like the fourth best hitter in points leagues last year.
And probably right up there in Roto, too.
Okay, 19 through 24.
Freeman, Lindor, Rizzo, Jose Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Gary Sanchez.
Freeman, Lindor, Rizzo, Jose Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Gary Sanchez.
And he makes a good point about how, you know, Machado and Correa are viable first rounders.
feel like viable first rounders continue right up until Francisco Lendor.
Like those top 19 have, you know, like they're borderline first rounders, most of them.
See, I guess the reason I couldn't take Votto in the first round is because, like, Freeman or Rizzo are going to be there in the second round.
Yeah.
No, I agree.
I mean, I actually have Votto the lowest of them in points.
I have Rizzo last in Roto, obviously.
But I, like, we've seen.
Freeman go in the first round. We've seen Vado go in the first round. We've seen Machado
Correa, obviously, Judge. I haven't seen Francisco Lindor do that yet.
And the thing is, like, even you went through 20, how part of it down did you go? 22?
24.
24?
JD Martinez. So even Jose Ramirez performed like a first rounder last year. Even J.D. Martinez,
when he was healthy, performed like a first rounder last year. So, like, that's part of the
reason why I wanted to see how it would play out if I took Kershaw, third overall, is because I felt
like those caliber of hitters could mimic first round production.
And I think right up until Gary Sanchez at number 24, that's true.
Yeah, and I think Mookie Betts is the player in the first round that is the highest,
that I have the highest compared to where he is in ADP.
I think he's the best value in the first round.
I'd say Jose Ramirez for me is in the second,
other than the fact that there's two guys that I think should be there that we haven't talked
about yet.
We'll get to them later.
All right, here we go.
So still only four pitchers off the board in this,
roto ADP.
And then, here come the pitchers.
Madison, Bumgarner is 25, Strasberg is 26.
Bellinger, Springer, Donaldson, Cindergarde, Seeger.
Strasberg, Bellinger, Springer, Donald.
Oh, I think I went with seven people there.
Sorry.
Bumgarner, Strasberg, Bellinger, Springer, Donaldson, Cindergarde.
We have three pitchers and three hitters.
The pitchers are Bumgarner, Strasberg, and Cicestergarner.
The hitters are Bellinger, Springer, and Donaldson.
This is the stretch of pitchers that I almost never find myself drafting,
because we're coming up on that Doger line where we go from honest to goodness standout hitters
to a really big glob of hitters that are kind of similar that goes on for, you know,
a dozen rounds or so.
So I rarely find myself taking the Straussbergs and Cinder Guards.
I'll take one of the base super four, you know, the four elite aces,
four super aces, whatever we're calling them at the around one-two turn.
But otherwise, I'm waiting a little beyond this group,
maybe with my fourth pick to draft a starting pitcher.
Yeah, there are still two players in my top 20 that have not been drafted yet.
But, Scott, if you...
Oh, I know who they are.
They're Degordon and Starly Marte.
Right?
Yep.
Now, but Scott, if you didn't take a super ace with either of your first two picks,
you would be looking at Bumgarner-Straussberg-Cinderguard, right?
Well, not if Donaldson, Seeger, who we haven't gotten to yet.
Not if they're still there, Bellinger.
I'm still taking those hitters.
Now, second half of round three, second half of round three,
there's a good chance they're all gone, and yeah, maybe I do take a pitcher.
But just going strictly off this ADP,
I don't have a single share in Strauss-Bergett.
I may have one in Cindergarde, but I think it's an auction league.
So, yeah, I haven't been drafting these guys.
But does that change in a points league?
Because that's exactly what I did.
Remember, I took Donaldson in our drafts.
Well, I assume the ADP changes in a points league.
I would still...
My question is...
No, I still think the drop-off is just...
The drop-off among hitters is...
Like, basically, the drop-off at hitters here...
there's a drop off of a pitcher that's coming later.
I think we're in the middle of a tier here right now.
And I know we talked about before about how that depends.
That depends how you assess Chris Archer, you Darvish, Robbie Ray.
But even if you don't like those guys,
they're still going to be the Grankys, the Severinos,
the Jacob de Grombs.
Like, that's, I don't feel like Strasberg and Cinderguard,
at least factoring in all the risks there,
stand out enough from those other pitchers that I'm going to pass up
on what looks like an impending drop-off hitter.
So what you're saying is if you have a pick in the first five picks of the drafts,
you're starting hitter, hitter, hitter.
Most likely, yeah, most likely.
I'm just telling you that in a points league, the DeGrom, Carrasco, Granky group,
I really don't think they will be there in round four for your four-pick.
That's fine.
That's why I tested, I've tested out starting hitter, hitter, hitter in a points league
and not being able to draft any of those guys.
that's when I make up for a lack of quality with quantity.
I'm still drafting an Archer and Ray or a Darvish and Ray,
but then I'm following up with the Keikl, a Paxton,
you know, just whoever I feel like is going to be,
I feel like it's going to be good when they're able to pitch,
and if they exceed expectations in terms of innings,
there's a very good chance they join that ace group.
I will say the biggest difference for me with these pitchers is format.
In Roto, Strasbourg, Cindergarten, the third.
I think that's good value, and they've got the upside to be right there with those top four starting pitchers.
If it's a points league, I'm taking Verlander and Grinky ahead of those guys.
All right, so I'm going to end this now because I'm just going to say what happened in our points league drafts because I went, I talked about this.
I'm sorry a couple of days ago, but I went Betts, Correa Donaldson, and then I didn't like my team.
Fourth round, I took Chris Archer.
by my fifth pick, I had to take James Paxton as my number two.
Like there's no way I was getting Archer and Darvish.
Ray, Darvish, Carlos Martinez, they were all gone.
So was Dallas Keikel.
So was Aaron Nola by the time my fifth pick came around.
So you have to be aware of what's going to happen in your points league.
I think by the time you get to the middle of the fifth round,
you know, James Paxton, Aaron Nola, that group is going to be the best one left.
I really don't think you're getting Granky or Darvish or Archer or anything like that.
Yeah, I mean, you have to know who you're.
drafting with and and I feel like this was a little more um at least based on our mic
drafts it played out a little unusually paxton and nola going where they did but um i still feel like
it i still feel like you didn't go heavy enough after that like i i would have been going heavy
after like the garicoles the tanacas the even like johnny quato uh louise castillo like
there are a lot of pitchers I like who I don't think are going to measure up to those aces,
but I could at least see it happening.
And if you're taking, in a points league especially, the more of those you have,
the more you're going to be able to take advantage of two-star weeks.
I think that's the better value path to take.
Okay.
So after pick 30, which is Cindergarde, we have Seeger, D. Gordon, Brian Dozier, Carlos Carrasco,
Severino and Verlander.
Seeger,
Carrasco Severino, Verlander.
That's the end of the round.
All right, that's D. Gordon, at 32, overall,
in a roto league.
I know Heath loves that.
I love it.
This makes sense.
Look, we're in this tier of starting pitcher.
We'll keep going, right?
So Carasco, Severino, Verlander,
end round three.
Beginning of round four in a 12th team league,
pick 37 overall is Jacob de Grom.
So Carasco, Severino, Verlander, de Grom.
then we have Jose Abraeu 38
Kenley Jansen 39
Bregman
Benintendi and Granky
So it's DeGrom Abraeu
Jansen
Bregman Benintendi Granky
Thoughts
Well I mean it's too early for Jansen for me
Like that
I don't think any closer is impactful enough
Unless you're going to go with a reliever heavy strategy
To justify taking that early
because so much of what they do well,
apart from the saves,
is going to get washed out by starting pitchers
or at least severely tempered by starting pitchers.
I don't have great objections otherwise.
I feel like Ben Intendee's maybe a little overrated here.
Bregman, I can understand better
based on the way he finished last season,
based on the shortstop eligibility.
But Ben Intendi, like,
There's a good chance Ben Intendi is a rich man's Kevin Kiermeier this year.
That's basically what he was last year, a healthier Kevin Kiermeier, who cost a lot more.
And so I tend not to pay up for him.
Okay, after this group, we have Hoskins at 43 overall.
Yeah, Marcelo Zuna, Robbie Ray, Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon, and Christian Yewitch.
So round four is really an outfielder round because you have Ben and Tendi, and then you get
Hoskins, who's outfield eligible, but also first base.
Ozuna, Robbie Ray, Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon, and Christian Yewitch.
And I like this outfield tier.
I like to get one player from this tier.
I typically draft an outfield during round four.
Yeah, and that's too early for me for Ozuna.
Yeah, it's usually not him.
And probably for Ray, too, but everybody else is fine.
You know what?
I don't want to become known as the guy who doesn't like Reese Hoskins.
because I got that nice victory lap in August, and it was great.
But in a roto league, which is what this ADP represents,
I'm not sure he's worth it there because I feel like in the traditional five-by-five categories,
he's probably going to hit a lot of home runs, probably decent RBI run total,
but batting obviously no steals.
And batting average, you know, I'm not sure he's going to be above average, really,
in that category.
So, like, with the great play discipline, sure, I'll take him in points leagues here.
But I feel like I know he's a good bit further down.
I feel like I actually prefer Tommy fan in Roto leagues to Reese Hoskins.
Well, I wonder how many Roto leagues now use OBP instead of average.
I don't think it's a small percentage.
So that may be influencing a little bit.
Also, there are a lot of, there's a lot of talk about how, yes, he's not going to be a high BABIP guy,
but there's no reason to expect Reese Hoskins to be a 241 Babibkeye.
So he may have 20 points of regression coming on his betting average.
All right.
By the way, I don't usually take Ozuna or Justin Upton.
So Ben and Tendi and Yelich are the two outfielers that I like to target in this round.
And let's move to round five.
U. Darvish, Encarnazion.
That's 50th overall.
That's a steal.
Craig Kimbril.
So that is like 10 picks after Kenley Jansen.
Yeah, no reason for that would be.
that big of a gap.
I would rather Jansen fall back to Kimbril's level,
but it seems weird that they go that far apart.
Yeah, they seem to always, yeah.
Darvish Encarnacion, Kimbril, Starling, Marte,
50th overall, 52nd, whatever.
He never goes that late in any of the drafts I'm in.
No.
Nelson Cruz, Carlos Martinez.
I've lost count.
I think Chris Archer is the last one here.
So, Encarnacion, no, Darvish Encarnacion,
Kimbril, Marte, Cruz, Carlos Martinez.
Cruz specifically is so dependent on what site you play on, on a variety of sites he's outfield eligible.
I have a hard time with him in a five outfielder league with just one utility spot quite this early.
I think in a league where he's outfield eligible, this is great value, too late even.
Oh, yeah.
It really depends on the site and what he's eligible at.
If he's outfield eligible, would you take Ben and Tendi or Cruz?
Cruz.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think I would too.
I have trouble with the old guys here in Carnaccio,
who I know he said was a great value,
and Cruz, just because there's always that little bit of doubt,
is this the year they just crash and burn?
And, you know, I'm usually happy to take Rendon
or like Christian Yelich instead, Tommy Fam, obviously.
Okay, Carlos Martinez, Chris Archer, Buster Posey,
finishing up round five Posey, Tommy Fan,
FAM, Byron Buxton,
Jonathan Scope, Wilson Contreras.
I don't know why you would
take Jonathan Scope right here.
Yeah. Like, that just seems
way too high. You're drafting
for last year's numbers.
Because, I mean, you know,
hit 290, 30 homers, or he even
hit 300, 100 RBI.
Like, but
you know, a lot of that just came from him playing a high
number of games and there are some reason to think there's there's reasons to think he was
playing over his head too so um and you know certainly if we get points leads involved in this
discussion the lack of walks is an issue there so yeah we've been saying it from the jump that
scope is going too early right all right so let's move on to round six uh i also find that interesting
that contraris and posey are only six picks apart in adp all right round six keichael chatman it's
always like Jansen one round, then Kimbril the next round, then Chapman the next round.
Elvis Andrews, A.J. Pollack, Caris Davis, Aaron Nola.
Keikle, Chapman, Andrews, Pollock, Caris Davis, Nola.
I draft Andrews a lot in this range.
If I don't happen to get one of the, you know, Correa, Machado, Seeger, Lendor class,
Andrews was most off to my shortstop because he was as good as them last year.
and you know, even if he regresses completely in home runs,
I don't think it's a huge reach at this point.
I think he probably won't hit as many home runs as he did last year,
but like 16-ish sounds about right to me with good batting average,
good solid steals total.
Yeah, I think he's a big enough advantage at a thin position to be worth drafting here.
I've got a little bit of a problem with Aaron Nola this high,
and I like Aaronola and what he could be,
but we're still talking about a guy that hasn't been exactly the same guy
each of his three years in the major leagues hasn't yet made it through a full season.
I think there's some assumptions being made to take him this early.
Yeah, I mean, I think it's interesting that people take Nola 12 picks or 10 picks ahead of Paxton.
You know, they both have injury concerns.
Who's a better pitcher?
I mean, I think Paxton's a better pitcher, personally.
Oh, I'd rather have Paxton on a first start basis.
Yeah, so it's kind of interesting.
And I think what may have happened, because I was this way when he first came up,
I thought, well, I don't know if Aaron Nola has ace upside, but he sure looks safe.
And I think, like, he developed a little bit more upside or showed us more upside than he thought he had,
but also has had some injuries.
But the safe tag stuck.
Okay, so this next pick, 67th overall, is a guy we don't talk about much,
and he's not someone you want to take this high in points.
He's much better in Roto.
He is Will Myers.
Will Myers, Jose Cantana, Dan.
Daniel Murphy, but that's skewed.
Billy Hamilton.
I mean, 71st overall, I never see him last that long in Roto, Billy Hamilton.
Myers, Kintana, Murphy, Hamilton, Zander Bogarts, Robinson, Kano.
That's 67 through 72.
Myers, Kintana, Murphy, Hamilton, Bogarts, Kano.
Myers is a guy I'm drafting a lot in Roto leagues.
And it helps knowing that he will gain outfield eligibility probably the first week of the season.
It makes it easier to fit him in.
Really, round six, though?
that's okay with you for Myers?
Yeah, yeah, because it's, look, it's basically,
I mean, I don't, you don't want guarantees.
You don't want to guarantee something,
but he seems like a very safe bet for 20 plus steals done
for the last two years.
He and Goldschmidt are the only first baseman
who you would expect that from,
and he's going to be a big power hitter too.
And the lineup's probably going to be better than last year,
so he expect the home runs, the RBI and runs to improve.
Not going to help in batting efforts,
but it's not like he's Joey Gallo either, you know?
I think there are a lot more positives than negatives,
particularly factoring into steel scarcity, taking him here.
All right.
If I already had steals, you know.
Probably, yeah, you probably not.
If you draft a D. Gordon or Trey Turner or Altuve even.
Right.
Yeah, probably not taking him.
But I find he's often my first steals guy.
And then I followed up with Whitmerfield, and things are pretty good.
And I'll just say that Kintana goes here,
and, you know, I said this when we were doing the starting pitcher preview a long time ago.
Jacob de Grom, Carlos Martinez, and Jose Cantana.
DeGram, Martinez, Cantana, three pitchers who had big increases in strikeouts last year,
but also gave up a lot of home runs and saw their ERAs rise.
But I'm still just very encouraged that we know that they can have great ERAs
and they struck out more batters.
So it's like they could all have, you know, huge years.
They just keep the ball in the park a little bit more.
This is a good spot for Kintana.
I'm going to go ahead and say it.
This is the year that Jose Cantano wins 15 games.
All right, yeah, he should.
All right, let's go a little faster here.
We got round seven.
Justin Turner, he won't go there now.
Corey Canabel, James Paxton, Gene Seguera,
Garrett Cole, Whitmerfield.
Turner Canable, Paxton, Seguerah, Cole, Merrifield.
I'd much rather have Merrifield than Seguer.
I think the one guy who's not on this podcast would disagree,
the one guy who's not on today's podcast.
I've got him 10 spots apart, so...
Yeah, I would rather run Merrifield.
I think Merrifield's a better steel source.
I think he's a better power source.
Batting average, you know, Segar may have an edge there,
but yeah, just if we're talking Roto,
I give Merrifield 10 steals on him.
Andrew McCutcheon, next half of round seven.
McCutcheon, Ozuna, Roberto Ozuna, O'Suna,
Eric Hosmer,
Yoanna Cespitas, Shohay Otani, and Lorenzo Cain.
McCutcheon, Osuna, Hosmer, Cespitus, Otani, and Cain.
Three outfielers in those six picks.
Otani is dropping like an anchor.
He is not going to be taken at this spot.
I just passed on him in our draft where you were mocking me.
I was mocking you?
Yes, you were mocking me because you got to get in half.
Oh, yeah, but that's what you just passed on him at like 135th overall.
135th overall, and I just passed on Otani.
Yeah, I passed on him too.
And he may come back to me.
Yeah.
I might have to take him next round if he's still there,
but that would be like 160 or 50 or something.
Anyway.
This is mostly roto ADP,
and I don't have any idea why Eric Cosmer's this high.
80th overall, 81st.
Yeah, I wouldn't take Eric Cosmer here either,
but seeing as I'm often drafting with Heath and Chris,
I find he's available 10th round and beyond often.
How do you feel about McCutcheon at 80?
Um, not good, myself.
All right, next round, next round, round eight.
Tanaka.
Miguel Cabrera, I take it like all the time.
Travis Shaw, Jake Areeta,
Domingo, Santana, and Ken Giles.
Tanaka, Miggi, Shaw, Arieta, Santana, Giles.
Can't draft Santana here.
Not anymore, not with the way things are developing.
where Braun isn't comfortable at first base,
and it's hard to tell how that playing time's going to shake out,
and there are risk factors beyond that even.
So it doesn't, like, the risk far outweighs the reward, I feel like, at this point.
And I think Jake Garietta's a little too risky here, too.
Okay, we're going to see some closers come off the board.
Giles was 90th.
Cody Allen, Felipe Rivera, Edwin Diaz.
How about that run?
So this is closer 5, 6, 7, and 8 after the big three, oh, no,
6, 7, 8, 9.
The big three, followed by Knabel, Osuna, and then in round 8, Giles, Allen, Felipe Rivera,
Edwin Diaz, followed by Devers, Sano, and Rognette Odor to end the round.
Devers, Sino, and Odor.
So the third baseman and closers off the board here as we get toward Pick 100.
This is the point where the draft where people are like, eh, doesn't, I don't really like anybody.
I'm going to take a closer or I'm going to shoot for the sky with upside.
Yeah.
It makes sense, right?
It's a good spot for them.
Right.
I've gone back and forth
some or many times on Miguel Snow.
I don't even know what I think about him anymore.
But I think this is a fine spot.
I like Devers a lot here, too.
Okay, so we're in the mid-90s for them.
Is there any closer that you think is going too early
out of Giles, Alan, Felipe Rivera, and Edwin Diaz?
Rivero.
I knew you were going to say that.
I was waiting for it.
I said it.
Yep, it's out there.
I tend to rank Cody Allen lower,
even though I recognize there's...
Like, that's just me looking at how he consistently finishes with like 32 saves,
even though the Indians are good.
And he's been awesome.
And just expecting it to happen again.
Which maybe isn't sensible, but like...
Next week is bold prediction week?
Let's turn up the clock.
Bold prediction 40 saves for Cody Allen.
I like it a lot.
It could certainly have.
I just feel like I've gotten burned enough by now that I'd rather let somebody else take him.
And there's still a closer that hasn't gone that I have ranked ahead of all these guys.
Who's that?
Oh, Rysel.
Rysel.
Okay, we're only going to do 10 rounds of ADP.
I had a feeling we wouldn't get to everything, but I think that should be helpful.
All right, so round nine.
John Lester, David Price.
Pretty interesting back to back there.
Lester Price, Jose Barrios, Kyle, okay, this is the starting pitch around, apparently.
Lester Price, Berrios, Hendrix, Alex Wood, Ryan Braun.
First six picks of round nine.
Lester, Price, Berrios, Hendrix, Alex Wood, Ryan Braun.
So I think Price's ADP is probably rising.
He went in the sixth round.
That was a head-to-head draft, granted.
But I don't think I'd let him slip past the eighth,
even in a Roto League,
with the way his first two Grapefruit League starts have gone.
I also find myself drafting Alex Wood a lot,
a lot more than I thought when I first started.
the rankings process in November, whatever it was,
and I thought,
eh, people are going to overpay for this guy
based on that ridiculous first half.
But what I'm finding is,
like, he feels like one of the last pitchers
who I feel confident isn't going to ruin my ERA and whip.
And, you know, I do question his durability,
but on a start-by-star basis,
he got the length he needed to pile up a bunch of wins.
Have we talked at all about what Kyle Hendricks has done this spring?
No, no.
He has thrown 15 innings.
He has struck out 21 batters, and he has yet to walk anyone.
Wow.
Wow, yeah.
Interesting.
I wonder if there's anything he's doing differently, or if it's just, you know.
Baseball reference does opponent quality for starting pitchers.
His is 8.5 on a scale of 10.
Damn.
Yeah.
I mean, if I read something that he was doing differently,
then I could get excited about that.
But I feel like, you know, a guy's going to try to find something.
Okay, go ahead.
No, get me excited, sure.
All right.
And then, you know, with Alex Wood, I also was just reading an article about him the other day.
The theory of why he struggled so much in the second half was that he got tired because he only threw 60 innings the year before,
70 innings the year before that.
So he wasn't used to it.
But, yes, he has this.
Yeah, go ahead.
It's worth pointing out, struggled so much was still a sub-4 ERA.
And, you know, it was mostly limited.
We looked up the game log the other day, and it was two awful starts, two not-so-great starts, and the rest were all fine.
Yeah, and the strikeouts were down, but, yeah, okay, so Alex Wood, it's an interesting group of pitchers.
There's some upside there.
Back to the ADP, after Alex Wood, it's Ryan Braun.
Okay, then it's Iglesias, Salvador Perez, Trevor Story, Wade Davis, and Didier Gorgias, and Chris Taylor.
So, Rysel, Salvi, Story.
Wade Davis, D.D., Chris Taylor.
I am not excited about drafting story here.
I understand things are getting thin at shortstop,
but I'd rather have D.D.
By a pretty wide margin.
Interesting.
And what's weird is I'm sure Chris Taylor is shortstop eligible
on some sites. He's not on ours, so don't get too excited.
But he's another guy who I'm surprised I'm drafting so often,
just because he's so darn handy with that second base outfield versatility.
He's not in nothing in terms of stolen bases.
He restructured his swing so much last year with one of the top-hitting gurus behind it
that, like, yeah, the Babbitt was a little high,
but otherwise I'm buying the gains he made.
And he's got a bad lead-off for the Dodgers.
Yeah, yeah.
So that's a big point for me.
That helps.
Because I'm not really sold on Chris Taylor and I'm not really sold on Merrifield.
I'm scared of the guys who came out of nowhere and had great ears,
but batting leadoff for the Dodgers certainly helps.
Plus, he goes so late.
I mean, well, he doesn't go so late, but he goes 108, 110th overall.
Late relative to how he performed last.
Yeah, yeah.
All right, final round here.
DJ LaMayhew, Zach Godley, Yassio Puig.
Just tell me if there's any bad picks in this round.
I still wish I could get Godley 110th overall.
That's a dream scenario.
LeMay, yeah, right.
People are very high on him now.
LeMayhew, Godly Pueig, Castiano's, Gallo, Doolittle, Rich Hill, Sunny Gray, Lance McCullors, Bradhand, Luke Weaver, Matt Olson.
I would say this, we talk about players we want more shares of.
Lance McCullors for me.
I passed him up.
I have drafted him a lot in Roto, and I'm happy to keep doing it.
He has had an amazing story.
Not quite Kyle Hendricks good, but very good.
He's a great pitcher.
We know what the risks are with him.
I passed him up for Stroman in a points league.
I wouldn't have done that in a Roto League.
But McCullors and Stroman, you're talking about two pitchers
who have very different values in different formats.
Definitely for Stroman, maybe for McCullors,
because you can pretty much assume he's going to be really good when he pitches.
You just don't know how much he's going to pitch.
Well, I think it's even more complicated than that
because he was awesome for two months last year.
Missed some time.
Wasn't so awesome when he got back.
Like, it's, like, look at his final ERA and Whip.
It's not like, it's not like, it's like, oh, if he just gets the endings, this guy's an ace.
Yeah.
So, I don't know.
I'm kind of, like, I certainly recognize the upside for McCullors.
I think I'd rather have Rich Hill.
I don't want to make too much of this, but 261 ERA in the postseason, facing the Yankees,
facing the Dodgers, facing, I don't know, they faced the Red Sox.
He was so good.
He was good, but it seemed like they rested him up for that, too.
It seems like they don't trust Lance McCullors to give them to, like, to be, to handle the workload you'd expect a starting pitcher to handle.
And that's why they have, like, you know, all these rotation redundancies now.
That's one reason why.
McHugh going to the bullpen, Peacock going to the bullpen, Francis Martez is still kicking around.
I just, I don't know.
I don't know.
And that's why I took Stroman over him in point.
points leagues, and I keep finding myself doing that, so I know this was Roto ADP, but if you're in
points leagues, like, just please realize, Marcus Stroman is going to pitch the first week of the season.
He might get off to a slow start. He had this arm injury, but it seems like he's fine.
He's so good in that format. Innings matter, and just, you know, he's a value pick for me in points
leagues, not so much in Roto. All right then, thank you for 10 rounds of ADP.
Heath, let's give people some good news going into the weekend. Who's in the Rejects for the
People League.
Team number one is scam.
Yeah.
Number two is Crete.
Team number three, due to a clerical error
on the part of Adam Azer, will be our NCAA bracket contest winner
announced on Monday because he was supposed to be in the podcast league,
but Adam didn't leave a spot for he or she.
Can you believe that?
What an idiot.
Team number four is Isaac getting in with the Lifetime Achievement Award.
Of trolling us.
Yes.
Team number five is Philip Marchand, which was Adam's requirement.
Yeah, so Phil, this was one of the dedicated longtime listeners exemptions.
The guy's emails all the time.
He's been listening forever.
Phil, you're in the league.
Team number six goes to Carl May.
We'll just read a short little bit of his email.
I'm writing to you for several reasons.
First, to address the elephant in the room, Heath is the greatest fantasy baseball personality of all time.
Well done, Carl.
Automatically.
And he finishes by saying Chris may offer valuable insight, but he is the generic version of the great Heathcoming.
That's great.
Team number seven, Joe Mundo.
Sent some beer and bourbon recommendations.
Woodford Reserve, fantastic.
Also included Sex Panther Double Chocolate Porter, which was amazing.
So good work, Joe Mundo.
Team number eight, Rob Raines.
My best friend called me the Heath Cummings of his life.
Feels like I'm winning.
That's a good haiku.
That's a good hykid.
Team number nine.
Yes, Scott?
No, never mind.
Keep going.
Zach Waxman.
Listens to podcast daily.
Waits for wardrobe malfunction.
Settles for Heats Nips.
Team number 10, Matt Griffith.
H is for hilarious.
E is for effortlessly pisses off Scott.
A is for attitude.
T is for the best at fantasy sports.
H is for hates Chris.
Hates Chris.
You don't hate Chris.
You guys are peas in a pot.
You love each other.
It's so funny.
Team Cree.
Team number 11, Matt Bryant.
Shohay Yasmani.
Towers, I need to hear you.
Sho Hey, Yasmani.
Yeah, that's a good idea.
That is outstanding.
Shohei Yasmani will be one of my team names this year.
Team 12 is out of the league.
You have to find a replacement.
Team 12, Chris Moore.
Miami loses to Loyola, Chicago, and Big Cain 2 weeps.
Yeah, yeah.
Well done.
He almost did.
It was pretty, yeah.
They're freaking elite eight.
Pathetic.
Team 13, Josh Gertz.
Please tell Chris, I said, positional scarcity does in fact exist.
Well done.
Positional scarcity is seven syllables.
How about that?
Team 14.
Is it the?
Noah Goldman.
Let's be honest here.
Heath is the man.
But Noah, not just because he said I was the man, I had asked for some rule suggestions, and I like Noah's rule suggestions.
Oh, you're not really doing this.
No.
But it's awesome.
We might.
I haven't decided you.
I'm a huge proponent of adding the stat,
Sacrifice Flies, to the For the People League.
I'm sure Scott would be on board with this critical addition to the league.
It will take a deep dive into Sabre Metrics to figure out the ultimate Sacrifice Flies player in the majors.
Who has the highest fly ball percentage?
Who has the highest fly ball percentage with a runner at third?
Who has the highest fly ball percentage with a runner at third and less than two outs?
Pretty sure those situational stats are not Saber metrics, but who has the highest fly ball percentage with a
runner in third and less than two outs,
whose average fly ball distance is long enough to score a typical runner from third.
That's Sabre metrics.
Well done, Noah Goldman.
Yeah.
Team 15, Nicholas Miller, chasing dongs each day.
Big dongs are my favorite.
Little dongs still count.
Nicholas Miller in the podcast for the people podcast.
Like, in Team 16 will not be announced until Monday because we have a tradition that is in danger of ending.
I could not find in searching through all the emails and all the tweets I really received any female entries.
None.
And maybe it's just because all of the women that listen to this podcast have already been in the podcast league and beat us all.
I think that's happened twice now.
But we should definitely have some entries.
So please, over the weekend, send your emails, send your tweets at Heath Cummings, SR.
Please don't be a dude that tries to pretend that he is not a doth.
dude so that he can be in the four of people.
Yeah, don't do that.
Not cool.
It's going to happen.
Probably.
And we won't know.
Oh, we had the fake rush in that one year, right?
Oh, that was weird.
That guy was weird.
Please don't do that, guys.
Please.
Give me a yes or no answer to this question from Ryan.
Is Blake Swihart worth drafting in a two-catcher league?
He might be.
He might be.
They're talking about him in like this super-duper utility role.
Yeah.
Where catcher is among the positions he's playing.
Alice Cora keeps comparing him to Marvin Gonzalez,
and saying Marwin Gonzalez was the MVP of the Astros last year.
This is going to be our Marvin Gonzalez.
So I think you'll have the abats to compete with other catchers,
and there's some untapped potential there for sure.
He's going to actually hit, though.
He will, because he has not really done that for quite sometime.
But, you know, talking about the 20th through 24th catchers.
Done with today's show.
Thank you all for listening.
Have a great weekend.
Good luck on your drafts.
Monday night podcast league, Wednesday night for the people we get excited.
All right, everybody.
Talk you Monday.
