Fantasy Baseball Today - 03/29: Sale, Greinke, Beckham and More Opening Day Reactions (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: March 29, 2019

We are not prone to overreaction on this Podcast, but perhaps some of these Opening Day performances are worth a big reaction. We start out with the Double Dongers (2:15) as we debate Tim Beckham vs. ...Enrique Hernandez, Joc Pederson's value and if we were too low on Javier Baez. And were there any must-add players from Thursday's games (11:50)? How about Jordan Zimmermann? ... Bad aces (16:50)! Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, Miles Mikolas and Blake Snell got roughed up. What does it mean? Also: Good aces, bullpen notes (28:23), steals sources (38:30) and this year's potential breakout SPs (40:40) ... We wonder if Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Marcus Stroman and Kyle Freeland are studs (45:25) and we talk about much more from yesterday and look ahead to Week 2 (57:30) ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:02 Domingo. Three and O. Tim Beckham keeps on slugging. The Red Sox for O'N1. And Chris Sayle struggling a little bit yesterday. Zach Granky didn't look very good. Trey Turner stole three bases. We're going to talk about it all.
Starting point is 00:00:41 Welcome to the show, everybody. On Friday, March 29, this is fantasy baseball today. I am Adam Azer. I have so many notes to get to today. It's going to be quite a challenge. Scott White, hello to you. Who is the one player that you can't wait to talk about? today. Chris Sale. I think there's a lot to dig into there. I wrote about him last night,
Starting point is 00:01:04 and we'll get into it, hopefully. Heath Cummings, who's the one player you can't wait to talk about? We had a middle infielder, hit two home runs off a very good starting pitcher, and I cannot wait to talk about Enrique Kikei Hernandez. Okay, I guess you, maybe you like it more than Tim Beckham. That's our first segment, by the way, the double dogs. And Chris Dowers, who are you burning to talk about? Uh, Madison Bumgarner. Did you know he dated a girl named Madison Bumgarner in high school? No way. Isn't that fun?
Starting point is 00:01:34 That's not true. I think it's true. I've heard that before. Really? Oh, interesting. Bumgarner. I mean, you doubt me. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:01:44 I don't know if it's true, but I have heard it before. Yeah. Uh, yeah, so fun day, fun opening day. I don't know. Actually, honestly, not that fun. I probably would have said it was fun. It was really fun. It was not that fun.
Starting point is 00:01:54 It was baseball all day. Oh, okay. That doesn't by itself. make it fun. Every time I turn around, there's another dog. It was super fun. You had the major league debuts of Eloy Jimenez and Fernando Tatis, future
Starting point is 00:02:08 Hall of Famers. Pete Aladozzo. Luke Voigt reached base four times, future Hall of Famer. Greg Bird hit a home run. We won't talk about the rest of the game. Apparently one of his strikeouts was a bad call. All right, let's start with the double dogs. All right, Tim Beckham's
Starting point is 00:02:25 off to an amazing start. He went two for He homebirded twice off Chris Sale. I think this next stat I'm going to give is probably scarier for sale than it is encouraging for Beckham. Beckham entered the game 0 for 15 with nine strikeouts against Chris Sale, and he hit two taters against him. So now Beckham is hitting 583 with three home runs, one double, two walks, no strikeouts so far in three games. This is a guy who's always had bad plate discipline. And, okay, you know what, let's throw Kike Hernandez in there.
Starting point is 00:02:54 He also hit two home runs. the Dodgers set an opening day record with eight home runs. It's an MLB record, not a Dodgers record. And two of them were from Kike Hernandez. So, Heath, I'll start with you. Which infielder would you rather have? Do you want either one? They're both available in more than 50% of leagues.
Starting point is 00:03:12 Tim Beckham, Enrique, or Kike Hernandez. I had actually already picked up Kike Hernandez in a couple of deeper, deeper leagues. After we talked about it a couple weeks ago that he was actually the starting second basement for this team, we know. that he absolutely crushes left-handed pitching. I don't think there's any doubt about that. These home runs did not come off of left-handed pitching. If he gets a chance to play every day,
Starting point is 00:03:34 I'm more excited about Kike Ernie-N-B is. As far as Beckham goes, it's not like this is the first time we've seen something like this from him. In 2017, August of 2017, he had three-game stretch where he home-urned in all three games. He finished the month of August in 2017 with a 1062 OPS. His OPS, the two months the month before and after that, 530 and 603.
Starting point is 00:03:56 But the difference is he struck out twice in those three games. So this is totally different. Well, I mean, I still think it's, we're talking about Tim Beckham now. I think it's worth mentioning that the play... Absolutely. Right? Yeah. It's absolutely worth mentioning that he's hit three home runs in three games and hasn't struck out.
Starting point is 00:04:16 But it's Tim Beckham. And there has been... What I will say is, it is possible that he became this totally different hitter in the offseason and is now a fantasy relevant player. He was a former number one overall pick. The physical tools presumably have always been there for this kind of potential breakout, but we were having this discussion
Starting point is 00:04:39 about Matt Davidson last year, and now he's a pitcher. So I'm not... It would have required Tim Beckham to make such a drastic change in his skill set to be fantasy relevant that I don't think you can expect it. There was no sign of this in his skill set prior.
Starting point is 00:05:00 So do you like Enrique Hernandez better too? Much more. Scott, looking at the ownership percentages. Scott, we have Beckham at 43%. We have Kike Hernandez at 35%. Do either of them strike you as underowned? And then I'm going to start asking, who would you drop?
Starting point is 00:05:13 Would you drop DJ LaMayhew for one of these guys? For Kike? Yeah, I think I would. And I do think Kiki is one of the most under-owned. players. I do like Jeff McNeil more. I do like Brandon Lau, who's even less at owned. I like him more, but
Starting point is 00:05:32 I mean, Hernandez definitely has power. It's verified. He has shown improvement against Ritey's. I don't know that he's going to play quite every day. I think Chris Taylor's presence will interfere from time to time. But I think if you're talking about
Starting point is 00:05:48 a standard roto lineup with the extra middle infield spot, the extra outfield spots. That's not enough reason to avoid picking up Hernandez. Okay, one word answer from everybody. You've got one second to figure it out. You don't
Starting point is 00:06:04 get another chance at this. Do you drop Yoan Moncada for Kiki Hernandez? Absolutely not. No. Yomacotta had a really promising first game. That was not one second. Or one word. Coming off of a very promising spring training. Yeah, he walked yesterday. There's a lot to like.
Starting point is 00:06:19 What else did he do yesterday? That was so prophecy. He saw 11 pitches, did not swing and miss at any of them, was more aggressive, which has been probably his main problem. And he hit, I believe both of his batted balls were above 95 miles per hour or in that range. There is no question that Yohan Makata still has tremendous upside. This is, you know, he was 82nd percentile on hard hit rate or exit velocity last year, 89% down sprint early in the morning. I get it. He had a good game.
Starting point is 00:06:57 All right, well, yeah. Okay, great. So don't drop Yoha Mankata. I wish I had some Yohan Mankata. I do not. Scott, other double donors. Would you say you won Munkata? Yeah, I do. Scott, Jock Peterson hit two home runs.
Starting point is 00:07:12 This is a guy who had an 894 OPS against Ritees last year, but a 5-13 OPS against lefties with one home run. And Colton Wong hit two home runs. Are Peterson and Wong anything more than just maybe start him against righties types of players? Yeah, I don't, I'm not presuming any kind of value change for them based on the fact that they homered twice on opening day. I don't expect Peterson to play much at all against lefties.
Starting point is 00:07:40 So he has value in like daily leagues, leagues where you set your line up daily and can play the matchups that closely. but in a standard weekly league, I think it's pretty hard to even roster him because the playing time's going to be so sporadic like that. But it's kind of annoying, really, the way they decided to bat him lead off when they had other viable options there and the fact that he home were twice,
Starting point is 00:08:06 I don't think we're going to see that change anytime soon. Yeah, I would have rather seen somebody like AJ Pollock there at the top of the lineup for the Dodgers. Yeah, I was surprised by that. Yes, you may, Chris. Why was Jock Peterson going 130 spots after Kyle Schwerber? It's a good comparison. I do think it's similar.
Starting point is 00:08:24 Yeah. They had literally the exact same season last year. If anything, Jacques Peterson might have been a tiny bit better. Have the Cubs said for sure that Shorber's not going to play against Lepardis? He didn't yesterday. Yeah, and he didn't last year. I just don't know why we would expect that to be different than how the Dodgers used. I just knew that there was an statement from the game.
Starting point is 00:08:45 the Dodgers, which could have been part, I'm not justifying it. I had them back to back in my rankings. But the fact that they came out and said Peterson's not going to play against lefties. Sure, but I think that difference in ranking and difference in ADP for the industry existed all throughout the off season. Okay. Well, I was going to say there are probably three players that come to mind immediately that are great in daily leagues. If you can just start them against Ritey's, Peterson, Schwerber, and eventually, Shohei Otani. I'm sure there are more, but those are, you know, three that just came to mind just now.
Starting point is 00:09:14 And finally, guys, are we feeling a little nervous that we spent a lot of time calling Javier Abayas a bust? He was going too early. We thought he was more like a late third round pick or something. He was going in the second round. And he went two for five with two home runs. He batted cleanup. He says he feels more confident at the plate. He's being smarter and has a plan at the plate.
Starting point is 00:09:36 Yeah, go ahead, Scott. I don't like, I don't like this idea that if one of your busts, picks isn't an outright disaster that somehow the process was flawed. When you're, when you're choosing somebody an early round pick like that as a bust, it's with the idea that, okay, we know what the upside is. It's very high. But you're passing up other second and third rounders for him. And there's more risk there than those other second or third rounders.
Starting point is 00:10:06 It doesn't mean, like, I did draft Baez in the podcast league because he went to the fourth round, you know? Like, there comes a point where the risk is worth it. There's more risk for him than other players in that same range. So if he ends up following it up, following up his 2018 with a similar 2019, I don't know. I don't feel like, I don't feel like the argument was unjustified and, no, of course not. Like, we messed up in some way.
Starting point is 00:10:33 He still had four swinging strikes, including two on pitches, basically in the dirt. So it's not like. Like he might be more confident and it's only one game, but it's not like he looked like a totally different player. There's always going to be that in his game, and there's always going to be an inherent volatility because of it. That's why we called him a bus. It's not that we don't like him,
Starting point is 00:10:55 it's that the profile that he brings to the table brings along more bus potential than you would otherwise think for a guy drafted in the 15 to 20 range. So what is it about Hobby Baez that makes you hate him? Is that like a Baez joke or something? Such a trolley comment. No, Chris was just saying We had multiple people on Twitter
Starting point is 00:11:15 Like, oh, great to listen to my favorite Fantasy baseball podcast that hates Javier Baez. Multiple people? I saw one. There were two. I'm sure you block both of them. We did get another request to be unblocked by Chris. I will say that one was because he snitch tagged.
Starting point is 00:11:32 Snitch tagging is not allowed. I would ask what is snitch tagging, but it was opening day yesterday and we have more to talk about, including the terrible aces like Chris Sale and Zach Granky, Miles Michaelis did not get off to a good start, and Blake Snell didn't get off to a good start. We'll talk about them. I do need to know, are there any must-add players? Heath, I'll throw it to you, any players that you think they're out there. I'm getting them right now.
Starting point is 00:11:56 I mean, I think we talked about one, and that was Enrique Hernandez. I look in your notes, and I didn't realize this guy was below 70% ownership, and I thought he should be drafted. So I'll say Domingo Santana as well. I think he had an ADP around 280 when we started talking about him earlier this, spring, it was 220 by the end of draft season, so I just assumed he was owning most leagues. But Domingo Santana and Enrique Hernandez, Hernandez for sure, in any categories league where he needed a middle end fuel. So Santana is 69% owned.
Starting point is 00:12:26 Kristen Stewart is 72% owned. I know Stewart had a bad spring, but, you know, 10 walks of 13 strikeouts in 17 games last year. That's pretty good. And he homered yesterday against the Blue Jays. Who would you guys rather have Kristen Stewart or Domingo Santana? Santana for sure Yeah I mean Stuart
Starting point is 00:12:44 They have similar problems And that they strike out too much But at their best They'll both walk a lot The differences Santana's had a year in the majors Where everything went right already And he has some stolen base potential He has struck out five times
Starting point is 00:12:58 In his 16 plate appearances so far So I think in a three outfield or points league There's still a good chance he's not You know it's hardly an open and shut case But there is something to be said for he's the guy who's attracting the most attention on the waiver wire right now. So if you have a spot to play with, there is the chance he breaks out. It'd be nice if you're the one who has him in your back pocket.
Starting point is 00:13:22 Yeah, and right now I have a lot of free roster spots because guys went on the DL, so I don't have to drop anyone. And I think, I know he's not, I know he didn't strike out a lot of guys. I know he faced the Giants. But I think Eric Lauer looked like someone that maybe could be on a deeper rock. and stream when the matchups are good. And I think considering he faces the Giants and the Diamondbacks, I think he has the Diamondbacks next week.
Starting point is 00:13:48 Eric Lauer is someone that I added. In fact, I actually dropped Brett Gardner, who I was just using, you know, out of desperation. And he's already locked in my lineup. He was in your Yankee spot. Actually, I wanted Cole Calhoun and my partner, Jamie Eisenberg, made me to get Brett Gardner. So just to throw that out there.
Starting point is 00:14:08 But yeah, I picked up Eric Lauer. Jordan Zimmerman, 14% own. I got to ask you about him. He had a perfect game going into the seventh inning. In fact, I have a stat about that. He had a perfect game through 6 and 2 3rd that is the longest bid for a perfect game on opening day since Lefty Grove in 1940. That's according to the Elias Sports Bureau. But he did have an encouraging spring.
Starting point is 00:14:30 Scott, you wrote about Jordan Zimmerman. Unfortunately, he's at the Yankees next week. But any interest in a 14% own Jordan Zimmerman? No, I mean, he did have an encouraging spring. It was largely strikeouts that were encouraging. And there was a case made by a couple of the beat riders. Oh, he's this changed pitcher. He's introducing a change up for the first time.
Starting point is 00:14:55 He threw a change up once in this game. What he did change is that he cut way down on his fastball use. And I think particularly against a young lineup like the Blue Jays have, that can be a path to success, but I don't think it's something you can bank on happening consistently. And the fact he wasn't missing many bats in this start, I'm just not that interested. He was missing bats.
Starting point is 00:15:23 He did have 12 swinging strikes on 70. Right, 12 swinging strikes started. How many? Talk over you. 12. 12 on 70 pitches. On 70 pitches. That's a great rate for Zimmerman.
Starting point is 00:15:32 Yeah, and this is, I think, going to be a theme with a couple of other pitchers that we talk about. He's doing the old man thing where he just basically ditches his fastball as a primary pitch. And we have seen guys succeed that way when their stuff is declining. So it's possible. I'm not rushing out to add Jordan Zimmerman, but in a deeper league, sure, it's a pitcher. Nobody knows what's going to happen with pitchers. And I don't know that I fully recognized how bad this Blue Jays lineup is.
Starting point is 00:16:02 Ranan Drury is their leadoff hitter. It's bad. Lord of Scuriel, we picked him up in a couple of these because he has a little bit of excitement. He's hitting fifth. This is a terrible, very bad lineup. Yeah, definitely is a bad one's out there? Is Brandon Drury a punchline now?
Starting point is 00:16:18 I mean, going into last year, we were kind of excited about him, right? He's fine. He's not, I don't think he's a lead-off hitter. He's not lead-off hitter caliber for a major league baseball team, I don't think. I'm with you. There's some untapped potential there, Scott. I think this is not, we might be talking more positively about Brandon Jury at some point. All right, and then I'm interested to get your thoughts on Carlos Rodan.
Starting point is 00:16:42 We'll talk about him a little bit later, but the strikeouts were there yesterday, and that was nice to see. All right, we got to talk about the bad aces. Who are you more concerned, who are you most concerned about, or rank them in terms of your level of concern? Chris Sale, Zach Granky, Miles Michaelis, Blake Snell. Can I just say Blake Snell, we're not concerned? I'm not sure why we wouldn't be concerned about Snell but would be about the other guys I'm not concerned about any of them really
Starting point is 00:17:10 Because Snell's better You know we've got two weeks of this doesn't actually matter coming from You remember this time of year Well no but it's also Like we should have baked into And I hope we did bake in the possibility that Blake Snell wouldn't keep the command improvements that he did So if yesterday was the start of something
Starting point is 00:17:29 It shouldn't be totally shocking to you Well, hold on. I said Snell's better. That's for Michaelis and Granky. I can't say he's better than Chris Sale. But look, Sale had the shoulder issue last year. Velocity was way down, came out, struck out the side in the first inning, and was throwing like 94. Velocity went down pretty much immediately after that, but not like super down, like 92 area,
Starting point is 00:17:49 and he got crushed. Michaelis, look, I was concerned about Michaelis, because you don't see a guy with that kind of strikeout rate have that kind of a year. You just don't. I know you thought maybe some people thought maybe his strikeout rate would go up and still might, but he had a bad start. Granky, obviously, you know how I felt about Granky, and this was an awful start.
Starting point is 00:18:07 But Scott, how about you? How about tell me who you're most concerned about on this list, and let's really dive into these guys now. I think it's fair to be the most concerned about Chris Sale, but I'm about to flip it, so stick with me. Okay. From his peak before the shoulder injury last year, average fastball velocity in this start was down like five miles per hour, which is a startling
Starting point is 00:18:36 drop and normally would be reason to be freaking out over a pitcher. But I think there are a couple misconceptions really fueling the concern here, the level of panic over Chris Sale. And one of them is that this is unintentional, the drop in velocity. When it's pretty clear the Red Sox had a plan this spring to to kind of limits how to kind of limit how hard he threw the ball. I mean, there were articles written about how
Starting point is 00:19:07 he would be throwing off the mound and somebody would be measuring the velocity readings and warning him when he got over a certain point. They were intentionally trying to dial back the velocity for Chris Sale, which kind of seemed like the case after he returned from the shoulder injury last year. He originally came off the DL, he was thrown 98, went right back on the DL,
Starting point is 00:19:26 came back and was throwing much softer. The other misconception is that it's that important to how good of a pitcher he is. And usually it is, but I think he's such a freak and has so many things going for him that it isn't. If you look at his track record, there have been wild fluctuations and velocity throughout. Normally, there's kind of like a steady decline over the course of a pitcher's career, but sale has been up and down. Last year was actually the hardest he's ever thrown on average. And while it did lead to career best ratios, you look at a year like 2016 when his average fastball velocity for the entire season was only a mile per hour more than it was yesterday, obviously with starts mixed in where it was exactly like yesterday.
Starting point is 00:20:08 And he was still an ace in fantasy. Again, the ratio is a little worse than normal, but he was fifth and AL saw young voting and he was people's ace in fantasy. Doesn't sound like you're worried, Scott. Doesn't sound like you're worried. No. It lowers his, like, I don't think the fact that he's doing it on purpose means it's not a concern. It's a bad idea. I don't, like, it will make him a worse pitcher. Right, but he was a worse pitcher in 2016 than he has been. Still, he was an ace.
Starting point is 00:20:36 Like, I'm not that concerned about what level of a-dom my ace falls in, as long as he's delivering ace results. And the thing is, like, it's, that's just if he stays where he is. The plan is for him to increase velocity from here, particularly later in the season. but if he doesn't, I don't think you're talking about a disaster pick. I would rank them on the Worryometer since you asked us to rank them. Chris Sale at like a 2.5 out of 10,
Starting point is 00:21:06 Zach Grinky at a 2.25, Blake Snell at a 1.5, and Miles Michaelis at a 0.5. And, I mean, there are varying degrees of how bad these guys were. Seven innings and three runs is considerably worse than five runs and six innings. And I think the degree of difficulty, especially for Michaelis,
Starting point is 00:21:29 I mean, he really, he gave up six base runners in five innings. He gave up some very hard hit home runs. Mike Mustakas launched his. But it's one of the best lineups in the entire National League and the worst pitchers part for Michaelis. And a one-game sample. I mean, his first start this year, Michaelis gave up three home runs at Milwaukee.
Starting point is 00:21:53 You know what he did in his first start last year? Yes. He gave up three home runs at Milwaukee. Yeah, yeah, totally. If you should say Miles Michaelis at Milwaukee. Maybe. So, you know, and, okay, so Miles and Michaelis, you guys don't sound too concerned. But I do think Zach Rankie, you know, he was serving up some meatballs yesterday.
Starting point is 00:22:12 I want to give, I want to give a piece of advice. And I'm going to write a piece that later today that talks a little bit about that. but if what happened on opening day, and really the first week or two or three of the season, if what happens confirms what you already believed coming in, you should work really, really hard to look for reasons why it shouldn't. This is the no fun police. You know what you should do if the thing that you really thought was going to happen,
Starting point is 00:22:40 happens the first month? Take all the victory laps you can and celebrate happily. Well, yeah, if you're trying to be a personality. Just enjoy it. If we're actually talking about fantasy analysis, though, and look, I'm not going to make anyone not celebrate the things they were right about because I'm going to do it myself. When Pablo Lopez goes out and throws seven shutout innings on Saturday. Just tell me how you feel about Zach Grinky, please? Exactly the same as I did before.
Starting point is 00:23:08 Which is what? He should be good, but there's a lot of risk. Okay. What's the risk exactly? He's 35 years old. Okay. But his velocity in this start was about exactly where it was for all of April last year. It seems like he was fooling nowhere.
Starting point is 00:23:26 Yeah, this is troubling. He has starts like that. Everybody does. I think this was the second time this decade that he's given up four home runs in a game. So, I mean, this was a bad start. Everybody has bad starts. This was a really bad start for him. But it's also worth noting that the pitcher who relieved him gave up four home runs.
Starting point is 00:23:46 Like, sure. The Dodgers were good Like a lineup of destiny yesterday Granky had a 480 ERA In his first five starts of 2018 So I don't think anybody Should expect us if you listen to this show To come on the day two of the season
Starting point is 00:24:02 And just start freaking out That's just not how we do it But since I was concerned about Zack Granky I will now take my victory lap And as I take you Adam and joy it Thank you You were right
Starting point is 00:24:14 I hope everybody listened to Adam and didn't draft Zatronki Zach Green. All right. As I take my victory lap, let's take a quick commercial break. We'll be right back. When we come back, we're going to talk about the good aces and so on the bullpen. We have to be talking about the bullpen.
Starting point is 00:24:25 That's coming up next on fantasy baseball today. How about those good aces from yesterday? They weren't all Zach Grankies. I don't think we have to spend much time in this segment. But Aaron Nola, he walked five, but he settled down. He had a very good start against the Braves. Corey Klobber, 13 swinging strikes on 79 pitches, so probably should have gotten more strikeouts, but seven innings, two runs.
Starting point is 00:24:46 and then Verlander, DeGrom and Scherzer themselves were just, that game was That was so much fun. Terrific. You left a name off this list. Okay, hold on. I'm sure he's coming up. The first duo to strike out at least 10 batters apiece on opening day
Starting point is 00:25:01 since Baltimore's Dave McNally and Cleveland, Sam McDowell in 1970. Can we skip this segment? I mean, there's fun facts about it, but yeah, we can see it. Okay, let's skip it. Can I mention one thing about Verlander? Yeah, he seems to have brought back a change-up that he hasn't thrown in years. He threw 11 of them, got five swinging strikes. Wow.
Starting point is 00:25:23 Like he needed another weapon, right? That's awesome. Thank you. That's a good stat. Okay, so then to the bullpen. All right, which pitcher did I leave out? I need to know. I assume you're talking about Madison Pomegarn.
Starting point is 00:25:37 No, I was talking about Jose Barrios. Yeah. Who was the aciest of them all? So Jose Barrios, 10 strikeouts in 7 and 2-3rd scoreless hitting, with two hits and one walk. Last year he had 12 starts of seven or more endings and two or fewer earn runs. That sounds like an ace to me.
Starting point is 00:25:55 And he ended up with a 380-something ERA. We certainly treat him like it. He's really interesting. If you want to point to a lineup, Pete is trying to do this with the Blue Jays, but if you want to point to a lineup that is basically a joke all the way through except for two spots.
Starting point is 00:26:14 That's two more than the Blue Jays. Zero spots. yesterday. Jose Ramirez played. Carl Santhana is not a joke. Okay, fine. Those are the two exceptions. But they had Leonis Martine, Martin batting lead-off, which is hardly the worst. They had Tyler Naquin third. They had Hanley Ramirez, who didn't even play for anybody last year batting fifth. You hold your time. They had some guy I've never heard of at shortstop. They had Brad Miller, who was just released by the Dodgers
Starting point is 00:26:40 starting at second base. This is the line of Berrios dominated. And yes, Burrios has the potential to do this from time to time, but I don't know that there's any... More regularly than 90% of pitchers. Yeah, that's the strange thing about him. He's a good picture. He's so up and down. But, I don't know, one thing that I look for in a guy who might break out is,
Starting point is 00:27:00 has he shown that ability, and he has had a lot of great starts. If there's something that he can figure out to string it together more consistently. You know, we have a this year's breakout segment with Tyone, Castillo, and Burrios. They all went pretty similarly in drafts. We can react to their starts in a second. But we have to talk about the bullpen here. And before we get into the performances, all right, Scott, I'm giving you the Jif challenge,
Starting point is 00:27:24 the GIF Ch challenge, however we want to pronounce it. I know it's really supposed to be Jif, but I feel like an idiot when I say it because it's stupid. You had a Jif on Twitter of somebody going, dude, I knew it. Who got a save? And you... Was it David Hernandez?
Starting point is 00:27:41 That was David Hernandez. And I had him started in an NL only league. It was obviously, I mean, the JIF itself appeared sarcastic. Yeah. And the delivery of that line. What was that GIF from? From a show, I hadn't heard of it. I looked it up, though, in case, because I like to know these things before I post a GIF.
Starting point is 00:28:01 It's, I think it's called... You know, I'm going to stop you there. Because I don't care. Because it is time for Jif etiquette. You cannot use GIFs of things that you don't eat. even know. It's Jamie GIF's the office. No, Jamie Gifts the office all
Starting point is 00:28:19 the time. I don't even think he's ever watched the office. It drives me crazy. As an office fan, that pisses me off. If you want to use a GIF, you have to know the reference, know the show, and like it. Strongness. So you need to know the character's name and the name of the actor or the name of the show. The show and the character. I just want to make sure I have all the details
Starting point is 00:28:37 right to add this to your Twitter thread of bad takes. Look, I've never seen the godfather and i still do am i funny like a clown that's good fellas it's good fellas that's the joke oh okay okay sorry i missed the joke what's that the guy uh a cartooning person who's yellow oh it's the simpsons okay so oh you were doing a bit too yeah i was yeah okay we're all doing bits yeah we're all doing bits we're all doing bits we're all doing bit we're all doing Okay, so bullpen stuff. Hayter got a save, a two-inning save.
Starting point is 00:29:12 Taylor Rogers got a save for the twins. Blake Parker was warming up. Taylor Rogers faced him lefties. Raisal O'Glaeus, they tried to get him a two-inning save. He only went an inning in a third. He struggled, and he's coming off a bad spring, which was mentioned by the broadcasters yesterday on the Reds broadcast. Why don't we stop there?
Starting point is 00:29:28 Hater, Taylor Rogers, Ryssel Iglesias. It's part one of this bullpen segment. And Heath, Heath, your reaction to these developments. Josh Hater was so good yesterday. I mean, that was the most joyful thing that I saw the entire day was when he went through Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeYoung on 11 pitches, 11 fastballs, 8, 7 swinging strikes, 3 strikeouts, and then was pretty impressive at the next inning as well.
Starting point is 00:30:00 Well, game of a home run. So, yeah, the note worthy things were. 21 pitches, all fastballs, 11 swinging strikes. That's stupid. You shouldn't be able to do that. Almost gave up a game tie homer. For what it's worth.
Starting point is 00:30:14 He gave up a homer. Lorenzo Kane is awesome. Lorenzo King is not the man a gold glove. Yeah. That was not the only great catch Lorenzo Cain made in that game, by the way. Rob Jose Martinez of a pinch hit homer. Jose Martinez, by the way, pinch hit for Colton Wong, who had already homered twice in that game,
Starting point is 00:30:28 but it made sense against a leftie. So, Locator gets the first save. I don't think it's a huge shock. It was a two-inning save. Can't do that all the time. Taylor Rogers, Scott. Well, you can. You can do that all the time if you get through two innings on 21 pitches.
Starting point is 00:30:42 Like a lot of closures, it takes 15 to 20 pitches to get through one inning. I'd be surprised. Yeah, but then you have warm-up pitches between the inning. It's more than throwing 21 pitches in one inning, I would say. Yeah, so, Scott, Taylor Rogers, 9% owned. First of all, guys, 16 walks, 75 strikeouts, and a 0.95 whip in 68 and a third last year. So Scott actually picked him up in the scam league that we have 16 teams just for ratios, and then he surprisingly got a save.
Starting point is 00:31:11 What did you make of it? I think I made of it that Blake Parker isn't the full-time closer for the twins, that Trevor May isn't the full-time closer for the twins. I don't know that Rogers necessarily is. He was facing two left-handers and a switch hitter, Jose Ramirez, in the ninth inning. But either he is or it's a committee. And I think that certainly raises Rogers value in leagues where you are looking to find potential save sources any way you can. And yeah, like you were saying, I liked him as a ratio guy even before this.
Starting point is 00:31:48 He introduced, I think a new Breaking Ball. A slider. Okay. At the start of June, had a 134 ERA over the final four months last season. So it was really dominant. So he could be a really good closer. The fact that I think he's the only lefty in that bullpen, I think the odds are against him being a full-time closer, but you never know.
Starting point is 00:32:12 And Chris, what did you make of Reisel Eglacius in the Red situation? This is what they told us they were going to do. They told us Ryssela Liglasius wasn't going to be the full-time closer. He was going to get some opportunities. I would still expect him to get the bulk of the opportunities, but they're also going to bring him in in close games when it's not the ninth inning. And I think it's possible Because he came in at the start of the 8th, right?
Starting point is 00:32:36 Yeah. Start of the 7th. Yeah, no, no. He was going for the 2-ending save. He just gave up a dong. Yeah, I think his usage could be a lot like Josh Haders. Brad Boxberger. Brad Boxberger, 36% owned.
Starting point is 00:32:51 He got a one-out save for Kansas City. Kansas City entered the ninth of a 5-0 lead. Willie Peralta came in. It was terrible. Heath, resident Royals man. What did you make of this? Yeah. Three different guys got a chance to close this game out. They were all terrible.
Starting point is 00:33:08 And then Boxberger finished the job barely. So I still believe right now what Ned Yost is saying. They do not have a closer. But if there's the little tally marks on who's closer to being the closer, Brad Boxberger got a little bit closer and everybody else maybe got a little bit further away. I would say if this happens one more time, there's no way Ned Yost is not naming him the closer. I roll this chapman. Yeah, sorry.
Starting point is 00:33:32 Chapman pitched in a non-sap situation had one swinging strike. And I couldn't find his velocity this morning, but I know it wasn't that great in spring training. So just something that bears monitoring, not hitting a panic button by any means on a road. How did it, how was his Adam Azer velocity looks? I didn't see it. Sorry. Adamadovino looked great. His slider is fun.
Starting point is 00:33:54 It was a fun pitch. Aroldus Chapman only averaged 95 miles per hour with his fastball. Yeah, I'm telling you that there's something, he's not quite there yet, Earl. as Chapman. Peaked at 97.8. That's low for him. In terms of the Phillies bullpen, they were basically blowing out the Braves,
Starting point is 00:34:12 but David Robertson pitched the eighth and struggled. Hector and Eris the seventh, Pat Neeshach, the ninth. Scott? Yeah, so they were up by seven when Robertson came in. He was warming up when they were up by three, so a save or hold situation. I don't think the fact they were going to bring him in the eighth necessarily means he's not the front runner for saves. I think it was looking like the highest leverage situation because the Braves had Donaldson, Freeman, and Acuna due up that inning.
Starting point is 00:34:45 They probably would have turned to Sir Anthony Dominguez in the ninth if the things would play it out if Reese Hoskins didn't hit that grand slam. But if a different part of the lineup was due up in the eighth, then they probably would have gone to Sir Anthony Dominguez then and Robertson in the ninth. It's a pretty strong indication, though, that Robertson is not like the closer, even though he probably is in line for the most saved still, I think. Okay, a couple other notes. Pedro Strope did pitch. I know he was hurt. There was talk about whether he would make the opening day roster,
Starting point is 00:35:21 but Strope pitched and struggled in the ninth inning of a non-save situation at Texas. Jalen Beeks, maybe someone we should just keep an eye on. He pitched three innings, four hits, no runs, no walks, five strikeouts against Houston. Some talent there in the raised bullpen. Really interesting spring, 21 strikeouts and 13 innings. You gave a bunch of hits and home runs, but stuff's there. Yeah, when he made the roster, I think they pretty much said that Yarborough and Yanni were going to be the two,
Starting point is 00:35:51 I guess, not starters, but second starters. But Jalen Beeks was kind of third in line for that job. If one of those guys falters or if somebody gets hurt, I would expect him to move into that second inning starter role. It's Yanni Chorino. Yeah, he said Yonnie. I'm just making sure that people know. Corey Knable will decide on Tommy John today, and Will Smith is the Giants Closer.
Starting point is 00:36:11 All right, steals, breakout pitchers, Junjin Riu, Madison Bumgarner, Elvis Andrews, I want to talk about him. So much to get to. We're coming right back after one last quick break, and we'll finish up our opening day thoughts. All right, here we go. So let's talk about steals, baby.
Starting point is 00:36:31 Trey Turner stole three bases. Whitmerfield's still two. Ronald Acuna batted cleanup and stole a base. The liner to Shields was caught stealing. So was Fernando Tatis. Eduardo Nunez and Jackie Bradley executed a double steal with Nunez stealing third. Scott, what theft caught your eye yesterday?
Starting point is 00:36:53 I mean, the Ocunia one was nice to see. But Trey Turner, obviously dominating with three after the big report leading into spring training that David Martinez wanted him to attempt 70s, steals. How about 70 times seven? That's what he's on pace for right now. Yeah, he's going to run a lot. I mean, there's not much to take away, I think, from Turner and Maryfield stealing multiple bases except that, hey, look, the guys who led their respective leagues and steals last year do again. So that's comfort. So does anybody feel looking at that Indians lineup that we should
Starting point is 00:37:30 we should want Trey Turner over Jose Ramirez? Or is that an opening day overreaction? I think the lineup has to get better at some point. You know, they do have Francisco Lindor hopefully coming back in a few weeks. Presumably they'll get somebody else. You know, they do have a top pitching prospect, I think, in AAA. I'm blanking on the name. Kristen McKenzie.
Starting point is 00:37:56 Kristen McKenzie. So that's a potential chip that they can go get a bat for. There's still a chance they trade Kluber or Bauer in season for a bat. So the offense will get better. Okay. And I think that not right now, but at some point, Eduardo Nunez could be a very fantasy-relevant player. Because Petroia will get – I know Petroa is already, like, kind of hurt,
Starting point is 00:38:22 but he'll eventually be back. But then he'll get hurt. And then they just have – Well, the bad part is that right now at least, it sounds like they're only starting Nunez, even with Padraea out, against lefties. I know, I know. They have Brock Holt, right? That's a very small end of the role.
Starting point is 00:38:37 I know, but he's good enough. He played Hurt all year. It's a bold prediction. Nunez will do something that we like. Okay. This year's breakout starting pitchers, James and Tion, Luis Castillo, Jose Berrios, they were all at it. They're all in a similar group in terms of ADP and what we expect from them.
Starting point is 00:38:59 Were you more impressed with Castillo or Berrios? That seems like an obvious question, but I think there are a lot of things to really like about Castillo. The results obviously were more impressive for Barrios, but yeah, in terms of changes from last year, Castillo has me more excited. One of the things that I think made last year kind of a disappointment was that he started featuring a two-seamer alongside his four-seeing.
Starting point is 00:39:29 seamer, and it was his most hitable pitch. Like, opposing batters hit almost 300 off of it for a guy with a great fastball change-up duo that should pile up whiffs. He pretty much ditched it in this start,
Starting point is 00:39:45 completely did away with that two seamer. And I think that's encouraging. I think there is still a concern that maybe there's not enough variety in his arsenal. His breaking ball, he threw, I think, only 12% of the time. No, really? Overall, Getting rid of a bad pitch, I think, is a step in the right direction.
Starting point is 00:40:03 Because I was watching that game, and I saw one inning where I believe he struck out the side. He did. And I saw mostly breaking balls, not that many fast balls. He what? He threw 12 total. Of what? His slider, his change up or both? His slider.
Starting point is 00:40:21 His change up he threw 38. Okay. Okay. So, right, I think we want to see the slider mixed in a little bit more than that. But 12 out of how many pitches did he throw, 91? All right. Go ahead. And I'm excited about Luis Castillo.
Starting point is 00:40:36 I was excited about the strikeouts in this game. But it's still a failure to get through six innings against another lineup that was, like, they started Melki Cabrera. He was their number two hitter. They had J.B. Shuck, Eric Gonzalez, and a pitcher at the bottom of their order. I'm not sure this lineup without starring Marte and Gregory Polanco is much better than the Indians. It's, I think for both Castillo and Burrios, the thing that I'm going to be watching for to find that consistency and take it to the next level is that third pitch. For Burrios, it's the change-up.
Starting point is 00:41:06 For Castillo, it's the slider. Maybe they should work together in the off-season and combine their powers. But that's going to be a big thing with consistency for both of them, as well as the ability for Castillo in particular, to get through the lineup a third time. You need a third pitch to do that. James and Tyone allowed more than three runs in a start for the first time in 23 starts, dating back to last year. How would you rank them real quick and we'll move on?
Starting point is 00:41:31 Tion, Castillo, Berrios. Tion, Barrios, Castillo. Burrios, Tio, Castillo. Yeah, I'll agree with Chris, but Barrios and Tyone, it's a razor thin margin for me. Yeah, me too. I've got them back to back, and Castillo's a little bit separated from those other two right now, but I think he has the upside to join their group. If I could just weigh in on something I read yesterday as we go to our next group,
Starting point is 00:41:57 Are They Studs? I read an article in The Athletic about Marcus Stroman, and the article, I believe, cited baseball savon. Did they do pitch tracking in terms of types of pitches thrown? Yeah, that's the stat cast data. And they were wrong, because they did not track any curveballs, and he threw a curveball, Marcus Stroman. So it's a tough job.
Starting point is 00:42:20 I don't know how someone who's not the pitcher or the kid. catcher would be able to actually know, because the curveball looked a lot like the slider, and it was classified as a slider. So sometimes when we look at this data, it's wrong. It's just there's no way to do it perfectly. And I think that that bears a lot of it.
Starting point is 00:42:37 The curveball is a new pitch for him, right? I think. Because that's something that happens with these systems is when guys introduce new pitches, it does take a while for them to calibrate and recognize the difference in spin, the difference in spin access, the difference in velocity and movement. Those things all have to be taken into account.
Starting point is 00:42:58 It'll eventually figure out if he threw a new pitch. But yeah, if he didn't throw a lot of them and it didn't look that different from his slider, it might take a couple starts to pinpoint that. I got confronted on Twitter for questioning the classification of something on baseball savants. So you guys better watch out. I mean, I think he was just being helpful, but it was kind of funny because it's not like he follows me or anything. I'm not afraid for people questioning. the system.
Starting point is 00:43:24 Okay, so are they studs? Junjin Ryu, damn. Eight strikeout? Well, this was an obvious. Diamondbacks. There are a lot of bad lineups out there. But he had a 197 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning and a 101 whip last year. Junjun Rio off to a great start.
Starting point is 00:43:37 Kyle Freeland off to a great start. He was the number 12 starting pitcher and points, number 19 in Roto. Last year, he dominated the Marlins yesterday. Madison Bumgarner, 66 strikes, 16 of them swinging on 92 pitches. I got him 142nd in a draft on Wednesday. So, I mean, like there's a point where even a bust falls too far, like we said with Javier Baez. Yeah. But Bumgarner with an encouraging start.
Starting point is 00:44:03 And Jim Bowden, by the way, on our fantasy baseball today video show said that, you know, what he was hearing from the Giants is that Bumgarner was feeling good, feeling healthy. And then Marcus Stroman only 80% own, 16 swinging strikes. If this curveball is a new pitch, maybe that's a game changer. Seven strikeouts and seven scoreless endings, two hits, four walks, a little bit high. and just two years removed from being 16th and points, 26th and Roto. Are they studs? Riu, Freeland, Bumgarner, Strowman, Heath, go.
Starting point is 00:44:31 I don't think they are studs. I do think Riu was way underrated during draft season and for as long as he's able to stay healthy. I expect him to be a very good must-start starting pitcher except for when he's in a course. The strikeouts for Bumgarner are interesting. It will be interesting to see if the Padres are going to be one of the worst contact teams in baseball again this year.
Starting point is 00:44:52 even with their new additions. I think they'll score more runs, but they still may strike out a lot. Watching Bumgarner, and I watched him mostly early in the game, I wasn't overwhelmed by how great he looked. Yeah. It was,
Starting point is 00:45:06 and it was like Jordan Zimmerman, where he's, we're witnessing the old manification of Madison Bumgarner. Early on in the start, he was basically throwing nothing but cutters, and they were all like, die high middle of the plate,
Starting point is 00:45:20 but they couldn't make contact with, them. Last year he threw his cutter right about as often as he threw his fastball. Yesterday, he threw his cutter a lot more often, and that was the case late in the season last year. Now, the peripherals didn't necessarily indicate a big improvement, but it's something to watch as he seems to come to grips with his impending mortality. I don't really hear what Kyle Freeland did against the Morlins. In Marlins Park. Yeah, and kind of, I feel a little different about Strowman, I don't really understand why he's 80% owned.
Starting point is 00:45:55 He was awful last year, but we also know he pitched hurt all year, and he's shown us the ability to be a top 25 starting pitcher. That's the guy that should be universally owned. Okay, I know Scott wants to get in there. Scott, why don't you get in there, and then I will give the Stroman rebuttal.
Starting point is 00:46:11 Go ahead. Scott. Yeah, I was just going to say for Bumgarner, I was just going to piggyback what Chris said, that the concern is, did he just get away with a gimmick? here featuring the Cutter so much. Obviously, it worked. But the velocity, the cutter was the pitch that he lost the most velocity on last year, and it was still low like that. So I don't know. I don't think the Padres are just a bad swing in this team.
Starting point is 00:46:38 They actually have four members of their lineup that are really good contact hitters, Kinsler, Machado, Hosmer, and Manuel Margo. But it worked for him then. I just wonder if the scouting reports are going to catch up to him. I will say I'm moderately, slightly more optimistic about Bumgarner, just because what we said in the offseason was he couldn't keep pitching the way he was and had a fine success. So this is an acknowledgement at least early on that, hey, I do need to do something different. He's trying something out. There's no guarantee it'll work, but what he was doing last year wasn't going to work either.
Starting point is 00:47:15 And just here's my argument against Stroman. I had pretty much been calling Stroman a points league sleeper, and I believe that. He's great in this format. So I just have concerns about Stroman's categories. He's a guy who's better than the sum of his parts, but unfortunately in Roto and categories, it's about the sum of your parts. And will he have a good ERA?
Starting point is 00:47:36 I don't know. I think he's probably like a 340, 3.50 ERA. It's usable. But high whip, most likely, and bad strikeouts. And I don't think he's going to get a lot of wins. So what is he really going to do for you in a Categories League? Now, again, if the curveball is something that gives Stroman strikeouts, it's a game changer, but if he's just the ground ball pitcher he is,
Starting point is 00:47:55 even in 2017, when he had 309 ERA, he had a 131 whip and 164 strikeouts and 201 innings. That's a guy who's just so format specific to me. Yeah, I mean, it's mostly just competent innings either, I feel like, which certainly matters in points leagues, especially when you're talking about a two-star week. I think the profile is actually very similar to Brad Keller, who also had a great opening day start.
Starting point is 00:48:20 And I was surprised to find he's more than 70s. percent own. Keller, that ownership percentage to Strumann is similar, and I think the outcomes are similar. Keller has two starts next week, Minnesota and Detroit, by the way. All right, so listen, guys, do we have to, I guess it's a Friday show. It kind of sucks. We have to talk about next week, right?
Starting point is 00:48:40 And we have so much more to get to. So let's go like turbo speed here. Walk-up song of the day, Elvis Andrew Drew-Joo-Joo-Ju-Ju's. He's got the Baby Shark Walk-up music. and let's give him some credit. He homered yesterday, went three for four with a two-run homer. He fractured his elbow and smallest sample size ever, but he did hit two home runs in 14 games
Starting point is 00:49:02 before fracturing his elbow last year. That's a 23 homer pace. That's coming off of a 20-homer 2017 season. So I just want to throw that out there for Elvis Andrews. Does anybody think he could be pretty good? Yeah, this was a guy who was the number, he was the number one shortstop in 2017. Right?
Starting point is 00:49:21 Two in points, one in Roto. Yeah, and that's, I mean, the position's better. I wouldn't expect even if he did that again to be that high. But the Homer improvements did look real. He was hitting the ball harder and he was hitting the ball in the air. So there's something there. Okay. News and notes.
Starting point is 00:49:39 Carlos Correa sat yesterday. He's optimistic he'll play this weekend. Starling Marte was scratched with a migraine. Mike Trout had a leg cramp. Lonnie Chisandhall, that's a Pirates outfielder now. He's out four to six weeks with a broken finger. and Melki Cabrera started in right field for Pittsburgh. Probably the biggest news, Andrew Heaney felt discomfort in his elbow and will see a specialist.
Starting point is 00:49:58 They are concerned about Heaney. Vince Velazquez, if you... What? He's gone. He might be. He might be. I've given some thought to dropping him. Vince Velasquez will start the season in the bullpen, but if you drafted him, don't worry, he'll make his first start on April 8th.
Starting point is 00:50:13 And I don't think I mentioned this, but Jim Bowden had some great stuff on our video show yesterday. He predicted that Garrett Hampson will beat out Ryan. McMahon, but he also predicted that Brendan Rogers will be in the mix at some point there. And he predicted that, not just predicted, but based on what he was hearing, because he's plugged in, that Carlos Martinez has a good chance to be the closer. So he had Jordan Hicks as a bust. He cited the Cardinals manager, right? On that one? Said the Cardinals manager told him something of that.
Starting point is 00:50:41 Is that who? And you left out of his best take. He loves Greg Bird. He does love Greg Bird. He told us that the Yankees were higher on Greg Bird than Aaron Judge. and I think that brings us to, well, I just want to read the tweet of the day from Daniel Secair, Secaira. Listen to the pod today. Once upon a time.
Starting point is 00:51:00 Once upon a time they were higher on Greg Bird than Aaron Judge, right? Once upon a time. Not today. Not to the pod today. Notice I'm also blocked by Chris Towers on Twitter. Not sure I've ever tweeted at him except to ask for advice. Any chance for an unblock? I did unblock him.
Starting point is 00:51:18 I will let everyone know if you're talking about someone on Twitter and you are not adding them and someone comes in and acts that person, immediate block. I have an exception. Only if this is someone that you have no association. Yeah, okay, that's fine.
Starting point is 00:51:40 If I'm talking about Adam on Twitter and someone comes in and adds him, that's exactly what I wanted them to do. Okay. Thanks. I've never blocked it. Anybody. Can we just have this, like you guys that are listening to the podcast, I would assume
Starting point is 00:51:54 there are well over 200 of you that are blocked by Chris. Can we just have this be a daily segment every day until the regular season is over? Yeah, let's make some judgment call. Chris unblocked someone. Yes, I love it. I love it. All right, so listen, I got to throw some other names out. We only have about seven minutes left, guys, and we probably should talk about some two-star
Starting point is 00:52:16 pitchers for next week. Luke Voigt, great start, and even though Greg Bird homered, it was a pretty bad game for him. Three strikeouts and a bad play on defense. So we'll give Luke Void the leg up. The fact that they batted him clean up, it tells you what the Yankees right now are thinking about Luke Voight. So good start for him. Nomar Mizarra, Austin Meadows, Harrison Bader. They all homered as well.
Starting point is 00:52:37 And Ryan Healy is off to a good start. He's batting 308 with two home runs and two doubles in three games. So let me throw it to Scott. Oh, and you know what, Mazarra homered off a lefty, which is something he actually did seven times last year after doing it just once in 2017. But Meadows and Bader and Healy are available, Scott. Meadows 61% owned, Bader 48% owned, Healy, 29% own. What do you think about those three? I think the most interesting is Meadows in terms of having the upside to impact, a variety of formats.
Starting point is 00:53:13 He's somebody who I needed an outfield fill in week one, even in a week one. Points League, Aaron Hicks. He was my second choice. Meadows was off the waiver wire. Ended up going with NCRte instead. So far, regretting that decision. But yeah, there's intriguing upside there for Meadows. Bader is interesting from a roto perspective because he can provide some power and some
Starting point is 00:53:34 speed, but I think it's kind of a Kevin Kiermeyer's situation where it's not going to be enough of either to factor in like three outfielder leagues. Kreef, I'm going to give you guys Frenchie starting pitch. I want you to tell me if you saw them on your waiver wire, would you be picking them up? Only one of them is a two-star pitcher next week, and that's Brad Keller. He has Minnesota and Detroit. Eric Lauer is 53% owned. Keller, by the way, 76% owned, most owned of this group.
Starting point is 00:54:00 Eric Lauer, 53% owned. Carlos Rodon, 59% owned. He's at Cleveland next week. It could be wonderful. Lauer, by the way, has Arizona, I believe, next week. Trevor Cahill at Seattle next week. Mike fires Where's this matchup?
Starting point is 00:54:19 Oh, two starts. He is two starts. You don't want him. Boston and Houston. But anyone, Keller, Lauer, Rodon, Cahill fires. We don't have to just do week to week here. It's the first day of the season, you know, long term, too, obviously factors in.
Starting point is 00:54:32 Thoughts? I mean, Keller's 76% owned, so I assume that he's owned in all points leagues, but he should absolutely be owned in all points leagues as long as you can use Sparps because he's eligible there. He looked really good. He looked really good. He looked really impressive.
Starting point is 00:54:45 It was a good matchup, but the slider looked more bat-missy than it has in the past. Lauer, for me, is just going to be a guy that I will start against the Giants, the Diamondbacks, and other bad offenses. And I thought Rodon looked pretty good. The line wasn't great. The defense was pretty terrible behind him, but it wasn't a terrible line. He only walked one, struck out six. I'd like to have Rod on my bench just to see if he turns into something. Yeah, and the Royals, like, I don't know what it's going to be like this year,
Starting point is 00:55:14 but last year they had the ninth fewest strikeouts in baseball. I expect that Billy Hamilton, Mondecy full-time. It's going to go up. Okay, guys. So, yeah, why don't we take a look? Scott, do we have week two stuff? Heath, Chris, do we have week two preview stuff? I've got some.
Starting point is 00:55:34 Oh, go ahead. Shouldn't have asked all three of you. I don't. Go ahead, Chris. You have more than I do. I've got, so I've created a spreadsheet for Sportsline users that has the schedules for every hitting matchup for the next six weeks or so. It's the team schedule, not the pitchers, but I do have the strength of schedule that way for the hitters. All right, we'll tease it and say, you know, if you want the rest, subscribe to Sportsline, first month for a dollar with the promo code Vegas.
Starting point is 00:56:07 Can you give us a couple of real good matchups? I'm going to go ahead and say the Yankees have the best matchups versus Detroit at Baltimore. Cleveland's got the White Sox and Blue Jays. The Angels have two games against the Mariners and then four against the Rangers. So those are all pretty good. Okay.
Starting point is 00:56:29 And two-star pitchers is really what we do in terms of week two. And, okay, it's really messy right now. Is it? It's very hard to have to. This afternoon. Okay. A lot of TBAs there at the start of the week. All right.
Starting point is 00:56:47 So there are a lot of teams that are playing seven games. So I think there are going, or six games at least. I think they're going to be a lot of them. I just don't know who they are. I think there's only two or maybe three who are playing seven games. And then how many playing six? Nearly all of them. I think there's just one that has two games off.
Starting point is 00:57:09 Clayton Richard is the only one that I look at that has great matchups. So Clayton Richards on the Blue Jays newsflash. He's got Baltimore and at Cleveland next week. And the pitchers, the matchups could change. But that's the only one that I look at and say, wow. Great matchups. Stephen Mats at Miami, home against Washington. Would you roll the dice?
Starting point is 00:57:34 Yeah. I think I would. Possibly in a points league. I mean, he's interesting. Caleb Smith is one that jumps out to me right away, the Mets and the Braves. It's not like they're great matchups, but I just think he's a very interesting pitcher
Starting point is 00:57:50 with a lot of upside, and if I had him on my roster, I'd start him. Okay, I don't think we should go into it too much here just because, you know, there's so much uncertainty. So we'll end the show with some emails. This is from John. Love the ranking segments. Could you get...
Starting point is 00:58:07 It's probably meant Scott and Heath to discuss Zach Godley 72nd for Scott 39th for Heath and Nathan Avaldi 49th for Scott 72nd for Heath So Scott is in on Avaldi
Starting point is 00:58:20 and not Godley so much Heath is the exact opposite You guys like to have a quick rankings debate Zach Godley's good Nate Avaldi's bad Well that's not helpful I noticed he's got godly In basically every draft we did
Starting point is 00:58:35 So he does seem to be particularly high on him as far as the industry goes. And I was very high on him last year. It's still possible, I guess, that he lives up to the potential of getting elite ground balls and missing bats. It just seemed like there was a control variable I didn't account for there. Well, and I think that it's an interesting thing with the Diamondbacks as a team. You can look on fan graphs at a pitcher zone percentage, how many balls they throw in the strike zone.
Starting point is 00:59:03 And generally, that doesn't relate too closely to walks. but the Diamondbacks, like top four of the top 15, four of the top 20 in pitches outside of the strike zone were Arizona Diamondbacks. We see Zach Grinky do that a lot. Robbie Ray, obviously, I'm not sure if he does it on purpose or not. I think Godley just went a little too far that way last year. I do still think there's a ton of upside,
Starting point is 00:59:24 and his peripherals make it look like he got a little unlucky last year as well. Zach Rankie, by the way, I saw a graphic on the broadcast. He is among a – they had four pitchers that were – led the league in like pitches on the corners. And the second best pitcher in that group was Kyle Gibson. The other two were pretty bad, if I recall. It's going to be interesting with new catchers in Arizona how Carson Kelly does. They don't have Jeff Mathis anymore, do they?
Starting point is 00:59:54 No. So that's what wrong with Grinky. There you go. I mean, it could be. He's a guy who relies on stealing strikes and the catcher's going to help out with that. So we don't know if Carson Kelly's a good pitch framer. he does have a great reputation defensively. Well, we got to one email.
Starting point is 01:00:08 I'll read these two real quick here. From Tommy, should I drop Francisco Cervelli for Austin Barnes? Sure. I wouldn't. I don't mind that. Should I drop? This is from Jeff. Ahmed Rosario, should I drop him for Tim Beckham,
Starting point is 01:00:25 Angelton Simmons, Lordus Gareal, Willie Adamas, Brandon Crawford, or Arcia. Nah. Not if you want steals. I don't think I don't think I'm, Med's, steals potential
Starting point is 01:00:38 is super high, but it's better than all of those guys. I think I'd rather have Willie Adomas and a points lead. And Will from Virginia says my girlfriend
Starting point is 01:00:45 thinks pumpernicle bagels are gross, but I love them. What do you guys think? They're gross. Never been a pumpernicle guy? Which one's pumpernicle? Which way are they cut?
Starting point is 01:00:55 The gross one is pumpernicle. That's not how. Is it the really dark one? Yeah, I think so. I think I like pumpernicle. They have that longhorn steakhouse. It's great,
Starting point is 01:01:04 little butter. Great way to stuff. Maybe I do like Pumperdickle then, because I like the Longhorn Bread. I don't know if that's what it is. It's not just like wheat. It's a very dark wheat if it is. Well, thanks, everybody. Have a bagel this weekend.
Starting point is 01:01:20 Have a Pumpernickle bagel. Have a Pumpernickle bagel. Let us know what you're going to think. For Scott, for Heath for Chris. I'm Adam. We'll talk to you on Monday. Adios.

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