Fantasy Baseball Today - 04/14 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Whose Value Has Changed?

Episode Date: April 14, 2017

As we approach Week 3 which players have gained or lost value in the early portion of the season? We give you some names and also read your suggestions. Miguel Sano? Avisail Garcia? Edwin Encarnacion? ... A lot from yesterday including two New York SPs with drastically different results, a number of SPs who are barely owned and are impressing, players to drop and injury updates ... Two-start pitchers to consider for Week 3 ... Email us at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The 14th. Spooky. Yeah, welcome to the show, fantasy baseball. That's not a thing, Adam. I love you laugh, though. That's good. That means like maybe 20% of the listeners chuggled a little bit when I said that. Yeah.

Hey, Scott and Chris, what's going on? Hi. How we doing? Hello. Adam. What's up. Chris did not stay up. What a bad fan. Did not stay up for 15 innings of Marlins baseball last night.

16. 16. I've been making an effort to go to. sleep a little earlier. I think I've only stayed up past midnight one time this week. I did actually, I got up in the middle of the night for about an hour, which wasn't fun because my sister stayed over at my apartment and opened the door at three in the morning. My dog jumped up, ran to the door, started barking. It freaked me the heck out. Wow. What is going on at your house? Why is she opening the door at three o'clock in the morning? I live near like an area where there are bars.

and my sister wanted to go out last night. So she was just like, can I stay at your place? She has a key. So I was like, yeah, just come in. I made the couch up for her. And then she, I forgot. My wife was like, yeah, that's just your sister. And I ran to the door and I was like, I'm going to kill someone.

I have to defend my house. It was not fun. That seems out of character. But, you know, Adam, the reason why baseball is trying out this rule, putting the runner at second base to shorten the extra inning games is because of millennials like Chris. Exactly. It's Chris's fault.

You're so PC, Chris. Well, you know who wouldn't, by the way, have gone crazy when your sister came in at 3 a.m. Your cat, because cats are just smarter than dogs. But today on the show, we're going to talk. You like both. I do like both, but I've just given a little love for cats. We're going to talk about breakouts. Actually, the theme of today's show is through two weeks, or almost two weeks,

who has changed? Whose value has changed? risers, fallers, that kind of stuff. Who do you think differently of now than you did when the season started? Obviously, Miguel Snow is going to be discussed. He had another home run yesterday, and he's off to a great start. And there's a lot of guys to talk about. So I'll get some of your suggestions.

I also ask people on Twitter who has changed in your mind in these first two weeks, and we will read those and react to them. Let's fill in the blank. By the way, we'll also go over yesterday's stuff. Luis Severino, Robert Gazellman, Avi Garvey. The first two weeks of the season have been blank. Baseball. The first two weeks of the season,

hmm. Boring. Roughly 14 days. I think encouraging is the word I've used. I haven't seen too much to scare me about players who I was kind of on the fence about. And I'm going to say boring because this whole exercise of who has changed, I don't think there are that many. I have been as the producer of the show trying to manufacture it a little bit because people want to hear buy, low, sell high.

And I just can't really think of that many instances. I think it's been pretty standard. There are some things to talk about, and we will talk about them. But even a guy like Travis Shaw, a guy like Yassil Puig, a guy like Ryan Healy, they have these big weak ones. And now they're doing nothing again. So there haven't been that many, I don't know. movers and shakers so far. I think it's been, I don't even mean boring in a bad way.

It's not like I haven't enjoyed it. Well, I mean, boring is good when you're playing fantasy sports because it means things are playing out like you anticipated when you were drafting. So you're not getting the rug pulled out from under you. And I think part of it is just that we're relatively intelligent sports consumers and we understand that two weeks in April is not necessarily all that meaningful. If there was a two-week span in August

where Edwin and Carnacione hit 169, we probably wouldn't blink. But I get what Adam's saying. There hasn't been a Trevor story. Yeah, I miss Trevor's story. Yeah. That's a... Yeah.

Okay, so... The guy who really makes us stand up and take notice right away. Yeah. But I've moved some players in my rankings. Just nobody really... No adjustments really to the... I mean, look.

Like the top tens at the posseys. And in... In two months, we might be able to look back at this and say, this was when Miguel Sinoe turned into Giancarlo Stanton or Chris Davis. You know, like, it's also just that we could be seeing a monster breakout with him in particular, and it's just too early to say for sure. All right, let's talk about Sano. So he went one for two with a home run. Right now, Sinoa is hitting 310 with three home runs. He has eight walks and 11 strikeouts.

You know, two years ago, Sineau played 80 games. If you double his fantasy points, give him a full season based on what he did in 2015. Snow would have been the number five third baseman in points leagues that year. Now, he had a six-game stretch last April in which he batted 455 with three home runs, five walks and five strikeouts. He had a four-game stretch in late May last year. He batted 4-29 with four home runs, three-referrales. walks and four strikeouts. So what he's doing right now isn't completely unique. Like he kind of did this last year, but also had just a terrible year. Didn't hit better than 253 in any month last season. So is it still

too early to fully buy in to Miguel Sinell? Yeah. Yeah. It's way too early for that. I mean, and, you know, there's still the same issues he's always had striking out too much. But there are very promising signs in that regard. guard that I would like to point out. He has been more aggressive at the plate, upping his swing percentage from 41% in 2016 to 44.7% so far. However, he is not swinging at more pitches outside of the zone. He's swinging more often at pitches inside of the zone, pitches that he can do something with. That's exactly what you want to see from Miguel, now. Basically, I wrote earlier in the week, I don't know if this is a

McGelsenough breakout, but if it was, this is exactly what it would look like. He's hitting the ball hard, has a hundred mile per hour average exit velocity. That's really high, I believe 97 miles per hour, was the highest in baseball last season. He's lowered his swinging strike percentage. He's doing a better job of picking which pitches to go after. I'm very encouraged by what we're seeing from Miguel Sino. That said, I mean, some of those underlying peripheral stats, they suffer from the same issues of sample size as everything else is the traditional counting stats. So, you know, one bad day,

and he's right back in the same boat. Yeah, he was at 15% swinging strike rate before yesterday. He didn't swing and miss at all yesterday, so he's down to 13.3%. But I will say, the pitch-based numbers tend to stabilize a little earlier than batting average or home run to fly ball rate,

but you're still talking about probably 100 plate appearances before you can really trust it. So we're still very early on in the game. I do think, you know, something like this at the start of the year, the reason why I like to keep an open mind, I like to think optimistically about

just about everybody I know to have upside is because I do think there is a difference, you know, after six months off, or however long it ends up being, if a player's playing in winter leagues or whatever. There's a much, like, there's a lot more time to kind of recalibrate and make adjustments than there is when you're in the day-to-day grind. So that's, like, I do think there's a difference between changes we're seeing at the beginning of the season and like a random hot streak in June. Not that mid-season breakouts never happen.

Of course they do, but usually breakouts happen from one season to the next. Later on today's show, by the way, I'll pivot to something else. We'll talk about Chad Cool. I'm going to give you a cool stat right now. Chad Cool, great start yesterday at Boston, and he had a, I don't know, a weird start against Atlanta with six walks in his first start of the year. But last year, Chad Cool had a 1045 ERA in three starts against the Cubs and a 313 ERA in all other starts.

That was over 60 in a third innings. So I actually found a few pitchers who are owned in less than 15% of leagues that are pretty interesting, or make it 16% of leagues. Jimmy Nelson, Jason Vargas, Chad Kuhl. We can talk about them a little bit later. I'll give you some studs that are probably by lows, but we'll just confirm it. We'll talk about Greg Bird, who's 1 for 20 with 10 strikeouts, Yassil Puig, who's 4 for 22 since a 2-Homer game. And like I said, your suggestions for players who have changed values whose values have changed. Let me tell you, let me give you Marcel O'una. So we got an email from a listener a couple days ago, actually, I think.

And he was calling out Mr. Scott White. He said, don't dismiss Marcel O'Zuna. Ozuna was off to a great start, and then he heard his wrist last year. And it is true, he heard his wrist in June. First 72 games, Marcel OZuna had a 951 OPS. He was outstanding, 16 homers. And that was basically the halfway point for him. The last 76 games, he had a 606 OPS.

was almost as bad as it gets for a regular player. Was he just a victim of the injury, and he hit a grand slam last night? Is Ozuna someone that is changing your mind? Yeah, I mean, well, that's actually I hadn't considered the wrist thing before, so that does kind of put a new spin on it. And right, at this point last year, by the All-Star break, I was basically considering him a fantasy studs. So it's all kind of coming back to me now, the way that played out.

But I actually thought this morning, you know, presuming we did end up talking about Azuna and the big game he had the grand slammy hit four home runs already, five walks to seven strikeouts. Like this is a perfect case of a player who I don't really believe in that much. But he gets off to this kind of start at age 26 with plenty of people in the world who do believe in him more than I do. I'm not selling him short. I'm not ruling out this could be a breakout season for him. It absolutely could be. And it is worth noting, you know, a breakout at 26 isn't necessarily predictable,

but this is a guy who completely skipped AA, basically. So he's been developing in the major leagues. He only had 47 plate appearances at above single A before getting up. before getting the call to the major. So it's possible that it's just taking him a little while. All right. I am looking at your team. You have Marcelo Zuna.

I say, you give me Marcelo Zuna. I'll give you Stephen Piscotti. You say yes or no? I say yes. You take Piscotti? I would rather have Piscotti. Okay. I'll give you Mitch Hanager, you give me Marcelo Zuna.

I would rather have Marcelo Zuna. That was true before the season, so. Well, yeah, I mean, I think I'd rather have, I think I'd rather have Hanager. But it would be, it would be a, well, I had Hanigur ranked ahead of Ozuna coming into the season. So it's kind of a different starting point. All right, so Ozuna's off to a very good start. Eric Thames is 49% owned. Eric Thames went two for three with a home run.

He, by the way, is now first base and corner infield eligible. Only two at bats against lefties so far this year. but he's hitting 360 with two ding-dongs. Has Eric Thames changed your mind at all? I'm seeing him as basically irrelevant in the standard mixed league sense. I just, guys who sit against left-handers, there are enough players who get full-time at bats that I don't know. I'm not even really concerned with that he's performing right now, to be honest.

One thing I do want to point out with him, he has a 31% strikeout rate, which is too high. and his batting average is buoyed by the 500 Babbat that he sports. But he's only got a 6.5% swinging strike rate. That suggests to me that the strikeout rate actually has plenty of room to come down. He's hitting the ball well, and I'm encouraged I would like to see them give him a chance against lefties, is what I would say. Just do what the Marlins are doing with Justin Bore and just see if he can do it.

Okay. This is Eric Thames we're talking about. Would you rather have Eric Thames or Josh Bell? Bell. Thames. Okay. Would you rather have Eric Thames? Well, I'll ask this one to Chris because Scott would obviously take Healy, based on what he just said. Chris Healy or Thames? Healy. All right. Is Travis Darnow changing your mind? Look, just a few days ago, he was batting 1.43 with one extra base hit and two walks. Now he's batting 333 with two home runs, 9 RBIs, 4 walks, 5 strikeouts, 2 doubles and a triple in 9 games. Travis Darno is 45% owned. Has Travis Darno changed your mind at all?

Team scam. Teams. To the extent that you had to kind of wear me down to draft him as our starting catcher in the 16-team. for the people league. You're feeling it now, aren't you? You're pretty pumped about it. Adam, you're a genius. I wanted Austin Hedges.

He had a good spring. He made some mechanical adjustments that could be paying dividends. So it's worth acknowledging that. He's a guy with a track record and a pedigree. And I've always liked the plate discipline, and that's been an underlying positive even while this is going on.

And he's only 45% owned that. That's way too low. I did a video the other day about Devin Mazzaraco, and I basically said if you've got four limbs and a catcher's mate, you're fantasy relevant. Travis Darno, I think, clears that bar pretty easily. And I would say, he's top 12. He's in the mix for top 12, I would say.

He's in the mix for top 12, but like 18 catchers are. And that's like the ones who are at the bottom end of my top 12 are like Stephen vote, Yadier Malina. I'm very close to inching Darno ahead of him. I think the real, where you really know he's broken in as a true mixed league asset is when he starts passing like Brian McCann and Yasmani Granda. If he keeps this going long enough to really encroach on them, then that's when I'll say I've changed my mind on him. Okay, now I will remind people, Travis Darno two years ago, had a bad.

better slugging percentage than Buster Posey. It was just behind Kyle Schwerber. 0.73 fantasy points per plate appearance was actually very good. Posey was 0.76. Schwerber was 0.79. It was limited, though. He only played 67 games. 2015, he really did perform very well.

So he and Conforto are both trying to have their bounce-back seasons. And they're both doing a good job. We'll talk about Conforto in a little bit. Let's finish this segment up real quick here. Joey Gallo. Has Joey Gallo changed your mind at all? he's got two steals that's nice batting 207 with two home runs and six walks 12 strikeouts no he's he's done joey gallow things he's hit the ball exceptionally hard when he's

made contact with it i think the bigger thing is that uh adrian beltray has changed my mind a little bit about joey gallo if if adrian beltray just can't get on the field that's i'm i'm going to be interested in joey gallo at least in as much as you know he Home runs are valuable. Is Avi Seil Garcia changing your mind? 22% own. He's batting 452 with a home run, eight RBIs, and a double with two-walk, seven strikeouts. Is Garcia, Avi-Sail?

I'm going to call him Avi. They call him Avi on the broadcast. Is Avi Garcia changing your mind? I mean, he's doing kind of a Moki Cabrera impression right now, right? I mean, of his, you just said it, of his 14 hits three or for extra bases. So it's not like, it's kind of a hollow batting average. And it's a 565 BABIP. Well, naturally, I mean, you have that high of a batting average.

The Babbup's going to be high too. It goes without saying it's going to come down. And I don't, like, I don't think he's suddenly the U.N. Escobar of outfielders because he hasn't shown that kind of ability in the past. And he's not, like, striking out or avoiding strikeouts like, Uniliskebar does. Right. He's still got a 20% for.

out rate. And if he is the UNLS, even if he is, in the unlikely event, he is. Like, that's not good enough. Yeah, Martin Prado's been outfield eligible before. I don't think anybody was super excited about him. He could be Nick Marquakis, I guess. In a best case scenario. He doesn't home or he doesn't steal, so you can basically leave Avi Garcia alone. And finally, Matt Davidson, who's basically just playing against lefties. But I could see him overtaking Cody Ashy and being the DH for the White Sox. Davidson's 3% onus. He changed your mind at all.

This is for deep leagues. He's kind of a poor man's Joey Gallo. So what's his ownership? What did you say it was? 3%. 3%. He probably needs to be owned in all A.L. All A.L. only roto leagues, I'd say.

If it's a head-to-head league with smaller lineup sizes, then he's kind of fringy even there. Okay, that's Matt Davidson. So we had two pitchers yesterday in the great state of New York, who pitched very, very, differently. Luis Severino, Luis Severino has so much in common with Michael Paneda. He is a smaller version of Michael Paneda. He's 55...

The secondary pitch is flipped, right? No, they both are very slider, fastball slider, and now working in their change-up. I thought Severino's change-up was his primary secondary. He didn't use it much last year. That's the way the story, like his problems last year, the way

the narrative's gone is that bad command, not using his change-up enough. Yeah, because that was the story on him coming in, was the change-up was supposed to be his best. It might be, but he certainly hasn't used it enough. Yeah, so he did last night, apparently. I think it was mostly his slider that was on fire, and Severino struck out 11 rays in seven innings with one walk. He gave up two runs. He just, he panaded. And then Gazellman had another bad start. Terrible. Gave up eight runs. Might have lost me like three leagues last night with his performance.

performance. But he had a 242ERA in 44 and two-thirds, granted with a one-two-eight whip last year. Who would you rather have, Severino or Gazelman? Gazelman, but it's interesting you bring up these two because in a league, I went, at least in most of my leagues, I looked to see if Severino was available. I looked to see if Francisco Liriano was available after last night. I want to own both of them wherever I can. and in the one league I found where Severino was available, I had a dilemma over who to drop.

And Gazelman was probably the one player who I thought I could maybe get away with dropping. But I have such a high level of confidence in him, and I remember when there were groans when I drafted him in this particular league. I would be sad to lose him if I did drop him for Severino. So I'm just crossing my fingers that Severino stays unclaimed until I can figure out something else to do. Yeah. I would rather have Severino and Liriano right now than Gasselman, but I'm not giving up on him. I think he had one bad inning in the first start last week.

And then he has to come back in his second start, face the exact same lineup. That's a pretty strange thing to have to do in your first two starts, especially since he was coming out of the bullpen before that. It's just been a weird start to the season. season for Robert Gasselman. The fastball's still hard. It's still heavy. And the slider's still hard. And the slider average 89 miles per hour. He had three swinging strikes with it yesterday on 12 pitches. I still think he can be a very good pitcher. And it's just, I think it's a, I really do think a lot of it's just a weird, weird, weird, weird start to the season. But I don't want to

bury the lead with getting too caught up analyzing Gisleman. I mean, Severino, this This is exactly, for a pitcher like him, former top prospect who's had just a hard time breaking through, this is exactly the kind of start that could be a game changer for his fantasy value. Like, he could be the, we could look back on this and say this was the moment we knew he was going to be, you know, a top 25 pitcher in fantasy. And that's why I don't want to miss the opportunity to pick him up. Obviously, it's one start, and you could come back with a clunker next time, but it has to start somewhere. And if you're not the one who acts on it when it starts, then you're getting left out. And if you're able to throw – if you're able to average 97 with your fastball, it's easy to get excited about. Yeah, and he pitched pretty well against Baltimore.

I know the final line wasn't very good in Severino's season debut, gave up a three-run homer to Mani Machado kind of late in that game. But he pitched pretty well. I think people were encouraged. I still think right-handed pitchers are limited if they can't be a three-pitch pitcher. And that means like having a good change-up, not just throwing it. Yeah, he threw it 28 times last night. Yeah, and he was happy with it. So that's the big development there for Severino.

He had a problem last year where his change-up slider and fastball, the velocities were too similar. He did not have enough separation. I remember seeing a chart. He had some of the lowest separation between his fastball and his, changeup, I believe. So he's still learning how to pitch, or he was last year. Good start to Severino. Yeah. I had about eight miles per hour difference between the changeup and fastball, which is yet generally what you're looking for. That's good. 10 miles per hour. Amir Garrett or Severino? Severino.

Okay. Interesting. Liriano or Severino? Liriano. Hmm. And Liriano is more highly owned, so we would have to prioritize him. on waivers if he's there, I think. I guess that makes sense. I mean, obviously, if Spark appeal matters in your league, then maybe that gives the edge to Severino. Yeah, he is RP eligible.

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Overowned alert. Tell me if these guys are over-owned. Yassil Pug, 95% owned. Four for his last 22. No. Greg Bird. Greg Bird, one for 20 on the year. He's 89% owned.

I'm going to say no. I can't imagine dropping him even with this as ugly as this start has been. Buy low on Greg Bird? I would. Yeah. Okay. I mean, buying low should mean like trading the last player or two on your roster

at this point. But yeah, I'd do that. I mean, you could, maybe you could, Maybe you could flip Severino for Byrd or something. Would you do that, or was that too risky because Severino also has considerable upside? It would probably depend on need for me. If I need pitching more, I probably wouldn't do that. Chris Towers, what do you think of my trade offer this morning?

I didn't see your trade offer this morning. Oh, I didn't. I'm going to make it to you right now. Oh, okay. You didn't send it. I couldn't get on. I had internet issues. Kyle Swarber and Marcus Stroman for Jose Altovae.

No, I'll pass. Okay. I'm good. I also offered that combo for Chris Bryant. Josh Bell, 57% owned. He's 4 for 28 with three walks and five strikeouts. I think that's probably a little overgrown. I will make a small case for Bell.

He batted 2-11 last year against Lefties, so I expect Bell as a switch hitter. We expect him to be better against Ritey's. He entered the game. I didn't look at the update. stuff, but he entered the game with 10 played appearances against lefties already, 18 against righties, and then they faced Eduardo Rodriguez. So I wonder if Bell just hasn't, he's been a little unlucky and that he hasn't faced

enough righties yet. It's a small case, but it's a case. I mean, the fact that he missed most of spring training with the hamstring, right? It was a hamstring. Well, he had knee surgery before that. Right, knee surgery. That's actually what I was referring to. I just forgot what it was.

Yeah, and I don't know that he needs to be owned in Roto leagues, really, because I feel like so much of his value is going to come from plate discipline, especially at this stage of his career. Okay, that's Josh Bell. By-low alert, you tell me if any of these guys are not obvious by-lows. Let's start with three pretty easy ones. I think we're all going to agree by-low. Maybe not on all of them.

Mani Machado, Joey Vado, Chris Bryant. Yes. Yes, but I, I do, we haven't talked about Joey Vado and he's had a bizarre start to the season. He's been one of the most aggressive batters in the league so far. He's swinging at 52% of pitches overall, including 90% of pitches inside of the strike zone. This is someone last year who swung at 42% of pitches, the year before 37, only 62% on pitches inside of the zone. He has not been Joe Evato.

Is it the long con again? Is he doing the long con like he did last year? Given that he's such a cerebral hitter who has a plan and is playing mind games with pitchers, that would be my guess. Yeah. He's not seeing any more pitches inside of the strike zone. He's just going after every single one. And we haven't seen it pay dividends yet. He's not hitting the ball well.

He's popping. No, he just hasn't been hitting the ball. very hard yet and that would be that would be the assumption you would make when a when a player is being more aggressive on pitches inside of the strike zone is that he's going after pitches he can hit what I meant by playing the long con and you you kind of summed it up but like I spent a lot of the early portion of last season maybe the first quarter of last season wondering what's wrong with Joey Votto he's so out of character right now and you know following I think it was it was some writer did

had a, had like a series of interviews with him from spring training to mid-season. And it was a consistent message every time that, like, he, he was setting up pitchers to get them to pitch him the way they wanted him. He wanted them to later in the year. And so that's why, like, I mean, that's brilliant. And I just have to give him the benefit of the doubt. It is not, right. It's stupid. It's stupid.

You're hurting your team. You're hurting your team. He's one of the best hitters of the last. last 25 years. I think he deserves the benefit of the down. So you think the Reds are upset with the way Joey Votto performed last year, Adam, you're crazy. I think that if you're going to bury your team early in the year by being terrible in the three-hole. He's not burying the team. He's just, he's approaching the game differently. By being a bad hitter? By being bad?

I don't think he's tanking. It sounds like he is. No, I think he's changing his approach. Well, there's a way that will maximize his overall productivity in the long way. run. It's not like he was bad early on. Well, okay, and look, the Reds are off to a great start, so good for them. But the question is for fantasy owners, if you're going to buy low on Joey Votto, is now the time to do it? Or are there a lot more struggles to come? And we should wait. I would... You can start now. Yeah, I think he'll turn it around at some point. Right. I don't know

that it'll be quite as long as it took him last time. Okay. What, he hit over 400 after the All-Star break? Yeah, 4.06 or something. All right, how about these two? Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Baltista. Are they by those? Yeah. They're both old enough that it could be the end, but we've also seen them both.

I'm much more confident in Carnacion than Batista. Like, buying low for Batista for me would be like my fourth outfielder or something, probably. You're going to look at the walk-to-strikeout ratio? Sorry, Chris, with Encarnacio and six walks, 13 strikeouts. At his best, he was usually like one-to-one by the end of the season. But this will be the third straight April where he's striking out a lot more than walking. And this is actually good for – so April 2015, six walks, 20 strikeouts. He batted 205.

April 2016, seven walks, 25 strikeouts. So it's kind of like this has been the case for Encarnacion now three years in row. So he's tanking in April just like Joey Potter. Yeah, exactly. I wonder if somebody interviewed him repeatedly what he'd have to say about that. Would you trade Will Myers for Edwin Encarnacion? I would still rather have Encarnacion. Me too.

Would you trade Marcelo Zuna for Jose Baltista? Yes. Yes. Okay. Do any of these guys in deeper leagues get your juices flowing? Jim Jimmy James Nelson. Jason Vargas. Jesse Hahn.

Matt Andres. Chad Cool and the gang. Brett Anderson. Ricky Nalasko. I was one move I anticipated making in the 16 team for the People League was picking up Jimmy Nelson. Because I remember this weekend when I talked to you about potential pickups at him, I was like, we can maybe pick up Nelson. But neither of us were that motivated to do it. I was going to do it even without consulting with you.

I was going to drop Rinaldo Lopez for him. But somebody apparently had done that since this weekend, even before this start. So that made me sad. Thank you for doing that. Why wouldn't you just text me? Because it was early, and because I knew you didn't really want Raynalde Lopez anyway. It was kind of my guy. Yeah, that's true. Nelson has gotten in better shape. He did some Pilates.

He's been fine-tuning his mechanics. Yeah, yeah. Well, he started changing his mechanics last year. He kind of got rid of some unnecessary motion in his wind-up. And look, considering he had the most walks in the end- NL last year, and I think through two starts now he has, what, two? Yeah. It seems like it could be making a difference, and this is a guy who throws 97 miles per hour, so he's throwing strikes with it.

You could see that leading to some good things. Like, I'm not nearly as excited about him as Severino, because I don't think the upside is quite the same, but he's, you know, he's kind of caught up to, like, the map Boyds of the world, maybe. Ooh, interesting. He also was working on a new splitter slash changeover. in the spring that I was interested in seeing, but he hasn't really unleashed it yet this season. He's been almost exclusively a fastball pitcher, especially last night.

He threw 83 fastballs and only 18 breaking balls. Wow. That's not, unless you're Bartolo Colon, most people don't get away with that. So we'll see if he can start mixing in the secondary stuff. as needed. Jimmy Nelson is at the Cubs and home against St. Louis next week. So we won't be starting him next week.

Well, I mean, the Cubs haven't been hitting. It's weird. They're going to hit. They're going to hit. There's too many dudes there. Yeah. Jesse Chavez is at Houston and home against Toronto. Vargas is a one-start pitcher, but he's off to a very good start.

And Vargas, he had Tommy John, right? I don't think he had like a weird. Didn't he have like an abdominal issue? He missed, like, most of a season with, like, appendicitis or something? I thought he had Tommy John in 2015, and he did. And then in 2016, he pitched pretty well at the end of the year. He three starts, okay, three starts, but 225 ERA, three walks, 11 strikeouts. This would be better than anything we've ever seen from Jason Vargas.

I can't imagine he's going to be a better pitcher. His career high K-per-9 as a starter. is 6.5. So, yeah, the fact that he has more than a strikeout per inning right now. I mean, the guy throws, the guy tops out in the high 80s. So, yeah, he's an innings eater and may be useful in AL-only leagues, but that's it. How about Chad Cool? Does that stat, isn't that a cool stat?

Well, he was very good. 313 ERA against all non-Cubs teams last year. And a great start against the Red Sox yesterday. He's pretty boring, too. Yeah, I think he's, I wrote about him in today's waiver wire. I think in deeper leaks, he's worth a look. But I'm not rushing out to grab him. There are other pitchers I would rather have.

All right, so we got a lot of news and notes to get to. So here we go. Very informative segment right here. Might be a little boring. So get some coffee. And here we go. Josh Donaldson left with a calf injury. I would not be surprising if he's on the DL.

So that was bad. That sucked. And you know what? Could be long. Those are bad. So let's hope for the best with Donaldson. Still don't know if Rich Hill was going to pitch on Sunday. Matt Bush is expected back this weekend.

John Gray re-agravated a spring training toe injury, and he will be evaluated, but he only pitched a few innings yesterday. It didn't seem like he was the same after the toe injury either, so maybe some time off would do him some good. You mean not in yesterday's start, you mean after, like. Right, I mean when he suffered it this spring. Yeah, he got rocked by the John. in that start.

Well, not yesterday. No, no, no. In the spring start where he initially hurt the toe, he was getting absolutely. I think Jeff Samarja hit a double off the wall off him. John Gray, so we'll see the update on him. But same game last night. Buster Posey, he's still on the D.L. He might be able to come off when he's first eligible.

There's only seven-day DL, so you might be able to start Posey next week. No timetable for Garrett Richards return. Malik Smith left with a hamstring injury. Devin Meserocco is. is on his way back. He's getting there, as Chris said, four limbs and a catcher's mitt worth picking up. Cleveland sent Tyler Naquin to AAA

and read this in the Washington Post on Ryan Zimmerman. For all the talk about exit velocity, launch angle, and the tweaks Zimmerman could implement to marry the two, the fundamental reason for Zimmerman's success through nine games, Zimmerman has repeated, is that he's healthy. And it's not just being injury-free starting on April 4th, it's that he was healthy from the time he reported to spring training and stayed healthy throughout the Grapefruit League slog.

That is considerable because the effects of a previous foot injury slowed Zimmerman for some spring training last year before a few nagging injuries surfaced over the course of the season, never allowing him to discover a rhythm. So my thing with that was all of that may be true, and if he says it's true, I'm certainly not going to doubt him, but he still swung the bat really hard and hit the ball really hard when he's not.

made contact with it last season. So I, I, for me, it's still, if he's going to hit more fly balls and more line drives and fewer ground balls, I'll be excited about him. But I don't know, what we're hearing that he's not actually trying to change his approach at the plate. I, I'm actually less enthused. And I kind of view him as a potential sell high candidate right now. All right, that's Ryan Zimmerman.

But I just thought it was interesting. Guys, guys like being healthy, I've noticed, covering sports. They enjoy them. Turns out baseball's hard if you're not 100% healthy. He's had, I mean, I remember, gosh, how long, like 2015, 2014, something like that is when it really got started. And he was having shoulder injections, like, every few weeks. And it just seems like he hasn't been healthy since then. So, I don't know.

I mean, it's hard to reconcile. everything. I understand what Chris is saying. Well, and I'm not necessarily sure there's any reason to think now he'll just be healthy. Well, yeah. I mean, that's always an issue with Zimmerman. All right, Zimmerman or Eric Thames? Zimmerman. Okay. Some tidbits for you.

Byron back, Bucks then bat at ninth. He went one for five. He did steal a base, but he also struck out twice. Devin Travis was moved to ninth in the order, and he went hitless again. The good thing for Travis is that nobody is hitting in that lineup. Mitch Morland hit his eighth double. Wow. Miguel Cabrera homered. And the Mets kept Michael Conforto on the roster, even with Juan Ligaris coming off the DL.

Neither of them started last night, but Conforto had a pinch hit double to tie the game in the eighth. And I still free Michael Conforto. Free him. Yeah. I hope Granderson just falls into a deep, dark slump that makes us all forget he exists. And Conforto, out. Takes the job, rides off into the... No, I'm sorry.

I mean, sorry, Curtis Granderson, but last year of his contract, too, so I don't know that the Mets have much motivation to, you know, get him right if that does happen. Yeah. In that hypothetical scenario where Conforto gets an everyday job. Long-term injuries, I wanted to update you on the guys who have been on the DL. David Price could be back possibly in May. J.D. Martinez's face live pitching is on the verge of a rehab assignment. Carlos Rodon, he's throwing not off a mound right now, might be back in mid-May.

Stephen Mats could be back maybe next month. He has the flexor strain, and it was kind of worse news than the Mets were anticipating, but maybe next month for Mats. Drew Smiley, 60-day D.L won't throw until mid-May. Tyson Ross, he's making rehab starts but slowed by back spasms. Gary Sanchez out about a month. Ian Desmond, no official timetable. Are we still thinking late April for Desmond?

I haven't heard anything to indicate otherwise. Yeah, I would say a couple more weeks. David Dahl, on the other hand, well, we don't know about Dahl. He's doing everything but hitting right now. He'll be re-evaluated this weekend. So early May for Dahl? I'm not sure he's any further away than Desmond. Okay, okay.

And Tom Murphy, still probably a few weeks away. I always check the, I mean, I check all the box scores anyway, but I'm always interested in what the Rockies catchers are doing because I just... Not much. Yeah, and I like that because I still think Murphy, you know, could have a big year. Mm-hmm. And we're rooting against Tony Walters.

Wilson Ramos is on the 60-day DL. Let's say June 1st, does that seem realistic for Ramos? Oh, that seems aggressive. July 1st. I meant July 1st, I'm sorry. Oh, July 1st could be realistic, yeah. Yeah, so that would be the halfway mark, right? Right, right around there.

Jason Kipnis, he was hit by a pitch on the hand. He could resume his rehab on Saturday, and Sunny Gray could be back by the end of the month. So without any further ado, we'll finally get to the theme of today's show. Who has gained or lost value this season? And we will get your answers, and then we will get the listener answers. So, Chris, let's talk about Sano just quickly here. I know you have moved him.

He's the one guy that you have moved into your top 10 at a position. Yeah, I moved him up. I basically kind of just flip-flopped him and Adrian Belchray. So Adrian Belchray, I think, is my number 11 catcher, or third baseman. Miguel Sino is my number eight. I'm still a little cautious about Miguel Sanoe. There's still a lot of swing and miss in his game, but he certainly, like I said earlier, if Miguel Sino was figuring it out, this is exactly what he would look like as a version of

himself that had figured it out. So, Sino, is he ahead of Rendon? Yes. Scott, not for me. No, not, you don't anticipate it? No. Not yet. Okay. I mean, Rendon,

like, he's just a fixture in fantasy lineup, so it's going to take a lot for someone who's not that to pass him. Okay. Other guys, Chris wants to throw out some names. Who's moving, even if it's, you know, low-end guy that's now a guy we should probably own, whatever, who's been moving?

Nicholas Castellanos, for me, I moved him into the top 20 at third base, so I moved him ahead of guys like Hernon Perez, Ryan Healy, Travis Shaw. And I probably should have just had him there before the season, and

I feel dumb for having overlooked him. Okay, Scott, any names for you, up or down? Yeah, so I'm kind of of going through my rankings here looking at some of the arrows I've applied and again we're not really talking high-end fantasy players here there is much more movement to be had with small samples among those who are are low investments anyway but I think Byron Buxton has lost value since the start of the season I think that's fair to say I couldn't have imagined dropping him

so soon, but he's given reason to do that in mixed leagues. Yeah, he went one for five with two strikeouts yesterday and raised his batting average and lowered his strikeout rate. Yeah. Yeah. On the other hand, a guy like Kendall Graveman, who I know we've talked about a lot, wasn't even on the radar at all for me in mixed leagues coming into the year. And now I can't imagine him going unowned after just those two starts as impressive. as they were and as impressive as he looked. Graveman or Severino?

Graveman. Oh. Yeah, I think I'll lean Graveman there too, but they're kind of in the same category for me. It's just Graveman's done it twice over. And he's been better throughout his career. But he hasn't been fantasy relevant, really. Right. Not better in a way that really matters to us.

Yeah. Somebody who I feel like has kind of lost value for me is, and this is, because he seems to be confirming my suspicions. It's not because, like, the starting point, whatever, the starting point was kind of low to begin with is Garrett Cole. I would say he's lost value for me since the beginning of the season. I don't know that I'm there yet. I just, I'm worried.

One more bad start. His next start is today against the Cubs. He usually does pretty well against the Cubs, and he's catching him at a good time. But I'm worried. I've moved Taiwan Walker down. I was a little optimistic about him in the spring. I wasn't like ecstatic or excited about him, but I've definitely soured on him.

And I'm more optimistic about Dylan Bundy. The willingness to throw the slider a lot and the fact that it's been an absolute weapon so far is a very good sign for me. If I were going to overreact to one start, it would be on Drew Pomeranz. I think, I don't know, look, I don't know if Pomeran is going to produce for you,

all season, he might get hurt, but I feel like he could have another great, at least half of a season. And it's like the situation is so good for him. If he's just an okay pitcher, he's going, he'll probably be a good fantasy pitcher because the supporting cast does so much for him. And I think his value rises in tandem with what's going on with Stephen Wright. Because when David Price comes back, I mean, I think we'd have to say today, Wright's the odd man out, when I don't know that it would have felt that way two weeks ago. The only reason why I'd be concerned about that is that Rodriguez hasn't been very good either, and I just wonder if you can put a knuckleballer in the bullpen.

I know they did it with Wakefield, right? Yeah, they've done it. And Wright's been in the bullpen before, too. Okay. All right. I hope so, because Rodriguez is someone I really like coming into the year, and I can't, I'm not, I'm not jumping off. He hasn't been bad.

He's walked too many hitters. But he doesn't be bad. He and Gazelman are two guys that I had high hopes for that haven't delivered yet. I'm certainly not giving up on either Rodriguez or Gazellman. I will not be dropping either of them. Let's mention another guy who's only made one start. I'm much more willing to overreact for pitchers than hitters early on. But Michael Waco was...

Oh, yes, amazing. Really barely being drafted in a lot of leagues. I think he was probably... He might have been going after Lance Lynn by the end of... spring training in a lot of our leagues. But his velocity is actually way up higher than it's ever been. 94.7 miles per hour. It was only one start.

But I think that's very encouraging for a guy who really only had one bad season. Right. Okay. Yeah, no, that's a good call. And Swarber, I mean, I talked about this earlier in the week. I feel like he's gained value, especially if you're in an OBP league or a points league. Because he's drawing a lot of walks. he's being a good lead off hitter, and Schwerber still has not sat.

But as you can tell, but as you can tell, sorry, Scott, I have made a Schwerber trade offer. I do view him as a sell high guy if you can get an elite talent for him. And I think you might be able to, like I offered Schwerber and Stroman for Chris Bryant and Jose Al-Tube. I expect both of those to get rejected. But I actually don't think they're terrible trades, especially in a 14-team league, which it is. But again, like, they said 140 games. He can't play 162 games, right? No.

And it is worth noting. He only has a 212 batting average. There's not a lot of bad luck there. He's got a 313 babbip. He's striking out 36% of the time. So, you know, he could be a drag on your batting average as the season goes on. I don't want to, like, if you can pull off the kinds of trades you're talking about, Adam, then yeah, you're not going to be able to, but if you can, that'd be awesome.

But, like, the 140 games thing, it was just kind of a manager speaking off the cuff, and I'm sure, like, I mean, in August we would have said there's no way Kyle Schwerber is going to be starting in the playoffs. And then even when he was starting in the playoffs, there's no way he's going to start every game at DH and stay in against the lefties. And then he did, and it's just like, I mean, if he performs, the way the Cubs have treated him so far, if he performs, I think they're going to play him. Okay. And also, it's not that I'm selling high because I think he's bad.

I'm trying to get somebody great. And just to follow up on Schwerber to finish on Schwerber, if you play in a league where he's catcher eligible, he's not a sell high candidate. I wouldn't be looking to offload him. All right. So these are what the listeners have said. We got about 10 minutes left. So we'll go through the listener tweets, and then we'll finish with two.

start pitchers for Fantasy Week 3. Andrew Summers, Jose Batista, thought he would be the steal of the draft. Turns out maybe he's actually washed up. I'm still not ready to say it. He looked really good in the spring. And in the World Baseball Classic, he was hitting the ball hard. I'm not there yet. Julian Alexander, Justin Verlander.

I think, let me just see the exact way I phrased the question. I think it was who have you changed your mind about thus far. I think Justin Verlanders looked pretty Justin Verlander so far. I'm not sure which way the mind's been changed. Here's why I included this one, because I sort of agree, because this is how I felt about Verlander coming into the season. I think he's going to be pretty good, but I still have some doubts for some reason. Like, I didn't want to reach for him, but now I feel like the only thing that's going

to stop Verlander is an injury, and he is clearly a Cy Young candidate. Okay. Tell me which player you've changed your opinion on over the first two weeks of this season. the question. Ryan Thomas, Joe Ross. I'm pretty mad. Had a lot writing on him just to end up with a minor leaguer. He'll be back. No, he's back in the rotation. He's going to start at Wednesday in Atlanta. It was announced earlier today. Ah, good. Good. And allowed one run in seven innings his AAA Syracuse debut. So I'm still very excited about what Joe Ross can do. I think that was actually his second start of AAA, right? Yeah, his first start wasn't very good. I don't think.

But it was good. There was weather. I actually think there was some concern about the weather in that first start. Sneaky ad right now. He's 65% owned Joe Ross. Ooh. Should have done him in WaverWire. Yeah, he's, well, I didn't know.

I wrote it last night. All right, Van Elwood. Ryan Healy, changed his mind on Ryan Healy. Again, I'm not really sure which way your mind was changed. because Healy had a lot of helium coming out of spring training. No, hooray. Hooray, I like it. But I would say he's off to a slow start.

The first week was pretty good because he homered a couple times, but it's a slow start overall. Okay. Alex Breggman from Cameron, Alex Breggman. I think it's too. We saw this last year where he got off to the slow start when he got called up and then he was a stud, so. Yeah, too early.

I wouldn't change anything. That's a sneaky by-low there if you still believe in Bregman. I could see people ditching him, not dropping him, but losing faith in him. Like Cameron. Tyler says Michael Brantley. Now, he sent this before Brantley doubled and homered, but still his first two, first, I think first double, definitely first Homer of the year. Maybe not first double. I kind of, I'm going to go with the same thing I said about Devin Maseraco.

Michael Brantley's limbs are all still attached, so I think you have to be more optimistic about him than you were coming into the season. just because he stayed healthy. Hey, he's played eight games and is, like, not on the DL yet. I think given what we saw last year, I think that's a huge win. Okay. I just want to check the strikeouts with him, because I felt like they were a little high. They're high. He has nine already in the last full season he played.

He had, like, just five times that, basically. So, but, you know, whatever. It's a week and a half. He might have had an eight-game stretch where he struck out nine times that season. Nine times. Okay. Mac Murdoch, Billy Hamilton, and his seven-game hitting streak, and five steals. Yeah. What do you think? Are we convinced he's a good player?

I'm basically the same place I was in already, and that place was, I think this might be the year when he actually lives up to his draft position. So if you weren't there to begin with, then I could understand your mind being changed. I was drafting him pretty much everywhere I could before the season. especially in Roto. Hooray for Billy Hamilton. Michael Grobes, Jake Lamb, drafted him later to be my third baseman when I already had Chris Bryant. But now I think Jake Lamb is the real deal. It's been a good second week.

Yeah, I don't know if I've changed any opinion about him yet. He's still striking out a lot. He still hits the ball pretty hard, and he still hits in a great park. The lefty-righty thing. And I'm trying to see what he's done against lefties so far. Well, he plays against lefties. I think that's the important thing. They keep him in the lineup.

It's not the only thing, but it's an important first step, sure. I'm a big Jake Lamb fan. That's probably my favorite player right now, that I have on a lot of teams. That's probably been the best pick I've made. Poor little lamb. I'm hoping you can get up. Matt Pickle, Trevor's Story, no dongs yet? And, of course, Matt sent this before Trevor's Story went yard yesterday.

But Story's only one for 17 at home. That's going to change. He's batting 143 with a home run. Have you guys changed your mind on Trevor's story? No. No, but I did include him in my bus column just as someone with a huge glaring flaw in his game who doesn't have exactly a lengthy track record. All right. And from Pedge, Pedge, Byron Buckston.

Okay, we know about Bucksin. How about Jose Piraza? in the good way he likes Paraza I mean I was like Parraza was on my breakouts list

I drafted them a lot coming in so I'm just I'm encouraged but nothing my mind hasn't been changed and finally Shelvin Phillips wants to know

if he should trade Andrew Benintendi for J.D. Martinez I think that would be a good trade and I'm the Andrew Benintendi stand What?

I'm supposed What? Andrew Beninti, what? Stan, it's a thing that the kids say When you're a fan of someone It's a reference to the M&M song, Stan off of the Marshall Mathers LP

In which a character, Sorry, I'll stop Millennials, my goodness It's what the kids say. I think all three of us are technically millennials So I can make fun of millennials Since I technically am one. I don't.

You are definitely a money. It's very borderline. You're a millennial. How are you feeling about Azer's the most millennial, though? How are you feel? No way, you are. Are you kidding with your Twitter? No, I'm a hipster.

Okay. Robbie Ray has two starts. They're both against the Dodgers, and the Dodgers don't hit lefties well. How are you feeling about starting him next week? I just like, he's not a typical lefty in that regard. Is he? He doesn't have great, does he have great splits? I never feel

There's no situation in which I'm going to feel comfortable Starting Robbie Ray I'm going to say start up and points Sit him and Roto how about that Boo People hate that answer Hop out They do

Get off the fence Adam I think it's so dumb that people hate that answer It's a great answer It's a terrific answer I know it's more informative But they like just want They just want to hear an argument So all you're copping out of the argument

I thought, yeah, I guess I'd lean towards it, but it seems like we're not gung-ho about Robbie Ray. If you stand for nothing, Adam, what will you fall from? Would you? Yeah, he's been a little better against lefties in his career, but not particularly good. Robbie Ray. Would you start Yvonne Nova at St. Louis, home against the Yankees? Yes, and head to head, no. No, I, it would depend on who I have.

I'm not, he's not a must start. I'd probably start him in both. If I owned him, like, I'd start him in a two-star week, yeah. All right, we got players who are fairly available. Amir Garrett with Baltimore and the Cubs. So that kind of sucks. I don't love those matchups. Yeah, I feel like he's a stash.

I'd like to pick him up, I'm not sure I'm starting him. Amir Garrett. Stephen Wright, Tampa Bay, and at Baltimore. Not a chance. Nope. Zach Wheeler, Philadelphia, and Washington. Lean no on that, too, unless it's like a really deep league. I'm interested in him.

I would hope he can survive the Nationals game, at least. Joe Musgrove, Angels and at the Rays. I would say no, but those matchups are so attractive. That's not a bad one. Yeah, I mean, if you need me to pick two-stared sleepers, he'd probably be near the top of the list. Mike Leak, Pittsburgh, and at Milwaukee. I like that one a lot.

That would be at the top of the list, probably, among those 80% owned or less. I'm scared. He's Mike Leak, you know? Brewers aren't that bad. Bad. They strike out a lot. Well, Mike Leak wasn't that bad until last year. He wasn't a fantasy standout by any means, but he would be a player who you streamed consistently in two-star weeks.

Okay. All right. I'll jump on board there. Where is he pitching? He's pitching home against Pittsburgh and at Milwaukee. I'd rather be home against Milwaukee, but it's not enough to poison the matchups for me. Brandon McCarthy, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez,

Andrew Triggs. Who do you like? Probably Triggs out of that group just for a two-start week because he's RP eligible and I'd be more likely to start him and head to head than any of the others. Yeah, it's hard to get past those matchups for Rodriguez.

I like him so much more than Triggs as a pitcher. But at Toronto, at Baltimore. At Toronto is the lowest. Toronto is the lowest scoring team in baseball, and they probably won't have Josh Donaldson. Okay. We still don't think they're actually that bad. Without Donaldson? Without Donaldson?

Without Donaldson and Carnaccio and obviously? Like, they kind of suck. That's... Too bad he's not here to defend Big Ken's honor. But Toronto's still a tough place to pitch, and then you have... And Edward Rodriguez isn't... He hasn't been good. He's not actually good yet.

Yeah. We keep, like, hoping he will be, but... You know, the evidence is not exactly mounting in his favor. It's not a flat, no, but I'm not figuring out how to free up a roster spot to add him off waivers. All right. They're going, going a little long today. We'll just try to finish up, though. Jason Hamill, Shelby Miller, Mike Fultenevich, and matchup superstar Jaime Garcia.

He's got the Padres and the Phillies at the Phillies. Jaime Garcia is not a bad option. He goes through stretches where he pitches very well. I think Shelby Miller's kind of interesting, just because that first starts at San Diego. I probably couldn't do it in a categories league, but a points league, I might give it a try. I have him currently in my starting lineup in one league where my other options are like Taiwan Walker, Vince Falasquez, and one-star Drew Pomeranz in Baltimore. All right, here's a one with good matchups. Jordan Montgomery, White Sox, and at Pittsburgh.

That's not bad. Yeah, I think that's actually pretty interesting. That's not bad at all. And then I'm just going to read the rest here. We got Nalasco, Ariel Miranda, Miami and at Oakland. Tomlin, Minnesota and the White Sox. Chavez. Yeah, we don't want Tomlin.

Chavez, Jimmy Nelson, what he's got the Cubs and the Cardinals. Derek Holland, Matt Andrews, Chase Anderson, Mike Fires, Angels and Rays. Tom Kohler, Phil Hughes, Kyle. A lot of games next week. My goodness. And Jesse Hahn. I did pick up two-start Tom. for the People League.

Two road games, though, at Seattle, at San Diego. That's fine. Not bad places to pitch. I think I like Jordan Montgomery better than almost all of those guys, if I'm going to gamble. Yeah, I mean, every time you mentioned a pitcher who I didn't hate, like Jimmy Nelson or Chase, I mean, even Chase Anderson, just because the way he started the year, I look at the matchups and it's like Yeah, I know. Well, it's going to be a lot of two-start options for you.

And hopefully a lot of hitting next week is there going to be a lot of games. So get ready for that. Have a great weekend, everybody. We are non-zero chance. We'll talk to you Monday.