Fantasy Baseball Today - 04/19 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Marte, Severino, Villar & and the Power of Steals!

Episode Date: April 19, 2017

We start with the Starling Marte news and discuss if he's worth stashing and who you can replace Marte with. It won't be easy, but there are options ... Which player - currently owned in less than 50% of leagues - is the next future stud? Also, are we buying Luis Severino and Avisail Garcia? Worried about Jonathan Villar? Dropping Kevin Gausman? ... We tell you why Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza are more valuable than you think, and then we're grading your trades! ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Wednesday edition of the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. We are grading your trades and, of course, talking about Starling Marte, suspended 80 games. Are you hiring with ZipRecruiter.com? You can post your job to 100 plus job sites, including social media networks like Facebook and Twitter, all with a single click. So try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. That's ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. Tell you more about that in a little bit.

Good morning, Scott and Chris. Combined, how many leagues do you in how many leagues? Do you own Starling Marte? I own him in zero leagues. I also own him in zero. Aided in part by playing in many leagues with Heath Cummings. Yeah, Heath has a lot. I don't think I have a single Starling Martee share.

Wow. And that is, I'm in five leagues. How many are you guys in? Fifteen, I think. That's more than five. I think I'm in eight. That's also more than five. Wow.

All right. So, 0 for 28 in our three leagues of Starling Mike. That's kind of crazy, actually. Well, I've got a lot of Andrew McCutcheon. Oh, that's bad. Because he's moving to center field, Chris. He's too old. It's not going to be able to take the physical pounding. I disagree.

I think it's going to make him more comfortable. Okay. Did you see what he said? You see what McCutcheon said when he caught that ball at the warning track yesterday? No. So he makes a really nice catch in center field. And he's all fired up, and he goes, this is my spot. He was pumped up.

It is a spot. It is now for 80 games, for sure. That is some glowing sensitivity there by Andrew McCutche. All right, let me give the layout of the show today. Starling Marte suspended. We'll talk about replacements both on the pirates and on your waiver wire. Dusty Baker said, quote, this ain't working, end quote, about his closer situation. That's an awesome quote.

Yeah. So it looks like Blake Trining could be on his way out. Joe Ross is going to start today. He's 72% own. You might want to grab them before it's too late. We'll talk about Severino. We'll talk about how in the world Andrew Triggs is doing this. Will there be a closer change in St. Louis?

I'm going to ask you about a bunch of players and whether or not in two and a half weeks you're changing your mind on Kevin Gosman, Jonathan, VR, Andrew Benintendi. Of course, we'll grade your trades. I want to dedicate about 10 minutes late in the show to grade the trade in emails. And, you know, Chad Kooler, Zach Wheeler, San Diego, see you, much more from yesterday.

Let's start with Marte. So this is probably something we could talk about for five or ten minutes. I think let's just kind of sum it up in two or three if we can. Scott, you wrote a very lengthy and very helpful story about it on the website. Let's start with this. Should fantasy owners stash Starling Marte, who will be back shortly after the All-Star break? I think,

I think it's really going to depend if you're in the way to gauge this is if you're in a league where prospects, a handful of prospects are being stashed in the hope they get called up at some point in the indefinite future then you obviously have to stash Marte because that's a similar situation

except with much more assurances attached to it. So that would be a definite yes and that's probably true in five outfielder rhodo leagues. The three outfielder leagues And certainly the points leagues where I felt like Marte was overrated to begin with. It's basically a flat no for me because that roster spot is especially valuable this time of year. And what you'd hate to do is like put it off, put it off, put it off, and then finally give in on like June 1st or something halfway through

when you missed out on who knows how many players because you had been stashing Marte all this time. Pull the band it off. Yeah. Yeah, bench size is obviously going to play a factor. It's going to be sort of a personal decision whether or not you should, one, stash him or two, try to trade for him in a seasonal league. And it depends on whether or not you think you're going to need that roster spot. We have a league with seven-man benches and five outfielders and it's roto. Of course, Marte is going to be owned.

If somebody drops him in that league, someone else is going to pick him up. But in our podcast league, you know, five bench spots, three outfielders. He's not great in points leagues. Yeah, Dee Gordon was on waivers in. most of my leagues for most of last year, I'd say. So, you know, I... Can I ask you guys a question? I wanted to get your thoughts on this.

When he comes back, will you view Starling Marte as a different play? No. No, I won't. Okay. I fully agree. I think, for the most part, there's no reason to really be concerned about guys coming back from PEDs. You know, nearly all of them have... have maintained their previous level of performance.

Some of them, Bartola Cologne, Nelson Cruz, have even gotten better. Nelson Cruz was the guy, wasn't he? Yep, he was. And then he got that discount deal for Baltimore for one year. Oh, okay. Yeah, it was like right before his breakout. Malki Cabrera is another guy who's been just as good, if not better. These are anecdotal evidence, but the only example I can think of of a player who had a PED suspension

and it just crushed him when he came back. was not the same as Everth Cabrera, who, you know, that was less than a full season of production anyway. Melky Cabrera, you know, he wasn't competing for batting titles anymore, but he was still productive. And just about everyone else was basically the same. If there was any decline, it was more age-related than anything else, like, you know, A-Rod. Yeah, and I was actually, because I was thinking about this with, like, D. Gordon to go on a little bit of a tangent is that, like, pitchers are being much more aggressive with him.

He hasn't walked yet this season. and he's getting a lot higher rate of pitches in the strike zone. And I wonder if pitchers are just like, ah, this guy's not on PEDs anymore. I can challenge him more. And I'm not sure that's necessarily a smart assumption. I think Starling Marte is probably going to be the same guy when he comes back. Yeah, you could argue that D. Gordon has been worse since the PD suspension. I mean, he actually, he was bad.

His batting average was low last year. But I think that's also like he had a 314 bad. He was pretty much the same guy. And he's off to a hot start this year. Yeah. Okay. And he was actually, in case you're curious, Dee Gordon was actually slightly better after the suspension than he was before the suspension.

He played about a month last year. I just mean in 2016 alone, D. Gordon was slightly, he was bad all year as a hitter. Stole bases, but did not hit well. But he was slightly better with a 642 OPS after the suspension compared to 629 before. All right. So who should we replace Starling Marte with? Let me start quickly with the pirate situation because Adam Frazier is 10% owned. He's been batting leadoff when Polanco has been out.

He's middle infield eligible, by the way, and outfield eligible. And he's not that good, but he's, I don't know, he's not terrible, Adam Frazier, right? I mean, particularly if he's batting leadoff, and it seems whenever he's been in the lineup, which has been a lot already because of injuries and whatnot, they bat him leadoff. he reminds me a little, I think, of Brock Holt. And remember, what, two years ago, Brock Holt played enough and had enough Babbitt success that he was useful in fantasy,

despite not offering much in home runs or stolen bases. So I would say Frazier, you know, he's no substitute for Marte, but he deserves to be owned in more than 10% of leagues. I view him kind of like a left-handed Josh Harrison, actually. Heath and I were talking about that before the show, and I think that's a kind of realistic comp for him. In the minors, he was certainly willing to run. He attempted 85 stolen steals in 350 minor league games. He was caught 38 times on those 85, so I don't know if he's any good at stealing bases, but he's certainly willing.

Okay, if you need steals, we'll do Marte replacements if you need steals, and Marte replacements if you just need an outfielder in a points league. If you need steals, I'm going to look at guys, let's start with 65% owned or less. Ender-N-Ciarte, Jacoby Ellsbury. Can't really say Byron Buxton's going to give you steals. Brett Gardner, 46% owned. He has five steals. Gerard Dyson, 45% owned.

Gardner seems to be the leader of the pack. now. Now, there's a player owned in less than even 50% of leagues who I like even more than Gardner, but he doesn't play the same position. And that's Brandon Phillips, who, as little as he strikes out, he's a pretty safe source of batting average, which is the other thing you're looking to replace in Marte. And he just already has, what, four steals? So he looks like he's running a lot more this year, and he's certainly been a capable base stealer in the past. He does have four steals, and Phillips has not been caught. Okay, so you could look at Brandon Phillips. He's not an outfielder, as Scott mentioned, but could work for you.

Austin Meadows is Pittsburgh's prospect. They don't appear that close to calling him up. Yeah, he hasn't hit a yet, so between this year and last year, hasn't hit there. Cameron Maven is 23% own. We're looking a little deeper here. If there's an injury into Calhoun, or, no, I don't even want to say the other outfielder's name in Los Angeles, or Cameron Mabin. Ben Revere would be a must ad for you out there. He's been playing a little more lately, hasn't he? I think they've been spelling the other

three every now and then, but I don't think it's anything regular enough to get excited about. Are there any names I'm forgetting here? He started three games in a row for what it's worth. Who revered it? Yeah. Including yesterday? Not yesterday, sorry. Okay. Okay. If you want,

if you're thinking in terms of like a prospect who could maybe come close to matching Marte's production, if you're lucky enough that he's called up sooner than later. I think Bradley Zimmer of the Indians or Louis Brinson of the Brewers would be better choices to pick up than Austin Meadows. It's just... It's really hard to say where or when Lewis Brinson's going to play in Milwaukee. Yeah.

All right, and if you just want an impact outfielder, what do you think about Cory Dickerson, 52% owned? Yep. He would be at the top of the list for me. Well, maybe not at the very top. He would be among the top options. Matt Holiday, I think, is 61% owned. He would probably be even above Dickerson. What about Avi Garcia, guys? Yeah, so he's one of the guys I'm going to ask if you're changing your mind on.

Garcia is 57% owned now. That's up 3% from yesterday. He homered at the Yankees. He's batting 440 with three walks, 12 strikeouts, three home runs. lost about 15 pounds since last year. Best shape of his life, Avi Garcia. Fly balls are up, strikeouts are down. And the GM said maybe that he thought maybe that weight loss was allowing him to maximize the torque of his swing. You know, I don't know. I'm still highly skeptical.

But I feel like if you lost Marte, you need to throw a Hail Mary out there. And I think Avi Sal Garcia is looking like a higher percentage Hail Mary than some of them. Sure. You need to be the guy who takes the chance on that, I think. Nah. Well, okay, Chris, would you rather take a shot? And this is irrelevant for anybody here, not just Marte owners. Would you rather take a shot on Avi Garcia or Corey Dickerson or...

Or Dickerson, for sure. Or Michael Conforto. Cory Dickerson out of that group. I think Conforto is the best player, but I just don't see any reason to believe he's going to get regular playing time. Okay. He did lead off yesterday. Got the start. Doesn't mean it'll happen today.

All right. So that'll conclude our Starling Marte. discussion. Which close... Oh, one other name I wanted to throw out there. Go ahead. Just, again, in the idea of you need a Hail Mary, Shinsu Chu, who's shown

some sides of heating up lately and obviously has a track record of average and steel sometimes. Yeah, I don't think you... It's been a while since he's stolen bases, right? It's been, yeah, a couple years. A lot of injuries. Again, it's a Hail Mary, but at least... Yeah, he hasn't had more than six since

2013, but as an overall contributor, he can be useful. Maybe you make a buy-low play, on David Dahl. Herodapara sat against lefties. They don't appear attached to any outfielder there. And I think Ian Desmond is still a by-low candidate. Okay.

Yeah. All right, cool. Which closer do we like in Washington? Which reliever do we like? Sean Kelly. Yeah, I would guess Sean Kelly's the first guy up. Sean Kelly or Matt Bush, if you had your choice? Bush, because it's already been declared, first of all.

and seems to have less competition. I think even if Kelly gets the job, and look, he's the best reliever in the bullpen, I think he'll do fine in the job, but the Nationals' aspirations as a team and their reluctance to name him the closer in the first place, like, I don't think he has the job all season. I think they trade for a closer eventually if it comes to that.

Okay. Kelly, would you drop, would you drop Camber Drozhen? for Sean Kelly? No, no. Okay, would you drop an A's closer for Sean Kelly? Yes. Would you drop Camber Jochen for Matt Bush? No.

All right, oh, look at it on the same page today. All right, so yeah, Dusty Baker is going to, looks like he's going to make a change, but we don't know anything for sure. We don't even know who it'll be. We do know that neither Glover nor Kelly pitched before Trine yesterday, trying to got into trouble, and they brought Sean Kelly in. And over the last two years, Kelly has a 255 ERA, and a 0.99 whip with 11.8 strikeouts per 9.

So he's been very good. Jay Reese Familia is set to return on Thursday. He could apparently be eased back into the closer's role, but that's going to be his job. Joe Ross, 72% own is going to start today at Atlanta. Would you rather own Joe Ross or Luis Severino? Severino. Back-to-back double-digit strikeout efforts for a pitcher with his upside.

that is must own. Can I have both? Sure. There's got to be someone who owns Adam Wainwright who can just pick up both and drop Adam Wainwright or something, right? Would you rather have Joe Ross, Luis Severino, or Alex Cobb?

Both Severino and Ross. I would slot Cobb between the two. And look, I want all three also, but sometimes you have tough choices to me. I think I'm probably higher on Joe Ross than you. Yeah. Sounds like it.

I do think he has top 20 upside. I really, I really think he could be a borderline ace. Do you think he'll miss enough bats for that? I think he has the potential to, yeah. The swinging strike rate both years has been above 11%. I think that's a really good rate. Obviously, the slider has plus pitch potential. And, you know, he's been right around eight strikeouts per nine in his career.

far. He's been about an average strikeout pitcher, but I think there's more room to grow there. All right, we got another big news item here. Seth Smith, fantasy stalwart, Seth Smith may go on the D.L. with a hamstring strain. Does that mean it's Trey Mancini time in Baltimore? Trey Mancini Sirens. What do you think? It'd be, like, it'd be ridiculous if it wasn't. I don't know how they could pass them over for somebody else. Well, this is exciting. Yeah. Moderately.

I'm trying to get excited. Like, he's not high on my list of Starling Marte replacements. I'll put it that way. But I'm interested in him getting a chance. He showed good power in the minors. Isn't it sort of likely that Yunsu Kim steps in as the lefty bat for them in the outfield? He's already been playing left field. Yeah, but not every day.

He's only got 18 play appearances this season. Been playing alongside Seth Smith. I don't know that it's. changes his role at all. And look, I think the way Tray Mancini's been performing, I think it's only a matter of time before he overtook Kim anyway. Okay, yeah, let's do it, Tray Mancini. So if that's, you're looking for an aim in a deeper league, Tray Mancini, I don't even know what his ownership is, but it's not high. Go ahead and maybe take a shot, see what happens. Let's talk about yesterday's standout. So if I could pour a little

cold water on Severino, who went eight innings, gave up a three-run homer, and no, by the way, how about this? The White Sox did not leave a runner on base yesterday. They had barely any hits. I don't think they drew a walk. And Garcia drove everyone in with that three-run homer. They had two home runs, a three-run shot, and a solo shot. The strand rate's terrible, then, is what you're saying. Yeah, 57% strand rate. That just is a weird stat.

First time in a long time that's happened. It was a weird game. But, yeah, look, Severino, the Yankees have... They had one eight in a row. They were beaten up on bad teams. They beat the Reyes. They beat the Cardinals who have been slumping, and now the White Sox. And Severino's last two starts were against Tampa Bay and Chicago.

I still worry about the Arsenal. I don't know if you have the data. I don't think he threw many changeups yesterday. But he does look. Only nine of them, I believe. He does look a lot better, a lot better than he did last year. The slider's better. He's still in like 97, 98 in the eighth inning and striking guys out with it.

So definitely want to own him. I just, I'm not sure what the future holds for Severino. What do you guys think? I don't know what the future holds for him either. He wouldn't be the first young pitcher with upside to put together back-to-back brilliant starts and then, you know, come back down to earth. But, like, this is the time you have to buy into him. Yeah, but who is going to be a breakout, you know?

Who are you dropping? Are you dropping Amir Garrett to pick, I mean, he's not even that available at this one. Yeah, I mean, Severino has been more impressive than Garrett, and I believe he has more upside to begin with. What about Andrew Triggs? 52% own. What the heck? How is he doing this?

I watched a pretty good chunk of the game. Look, he's got a lot of movement on his pitches, but he hasn't given up an earn run in 17 and 2 thirds. And by the way, remember that stat James Paxston, first pitcher since, well, no, since Zimmerman last year, but like what, the eighth pitcher since 1900 to start the season with three straight starts of six innings or more scoreless? Well, Triggs is one-third of an inning away from that.

He's 17 and two-thirds scoreless inning so far, but only four walks, nine strikeouts. What do you make of this? 52% owned your thoughts on Andrew Triggs, Chris Towers. I don't believe he can keep this up, but the ground ball rate is a nice sign when you're pitching in Oakland. You're not going to allow very many home runs, and that's always a good sign, especially for someone. with good control like him. I just, I have trouble buying in on a low strikeout guy. If he can start striking more batters out, then I think he's interesting.

But right now, he's just a head-to-head spark option for me. He has kind of the wacky delivery thing going for him, which, you know, a lot of times that will, that will collapse. You know, that'll figure that out. Right, right. The gimmick. But, you know, sometimes they don't. So, I don't know.

He's interesting. Would you rather own Andrew Triggs? That's his name. Or Jason Vargas? I'd rather own Triggs. I mean, Vargas is pretty well established as a mediocre pitcher, right? Yeah. Would you rather own Triggs or Jimmy Nelson,

whose manager said he pitched better than the line would indicate? I don't know if he saw the two monster home runs he gave up, but Jimmy Nelson or Andrew Triggs at this point. And let's say no spark, just to start. starting pitcher. Triggs. Oh, yeah, I guess I would go with Triggs. Okay. Triggs are for kids or Brandon McCarthy?

Triggs. Sure. Say Triggs are for kids? Silly Rabbit. Okay, well, it's fine. I'll say it. Moving on to Sen Juan. Oh, no.

He purely blew it yesterday. I'm trying to, I'm trying to, I'm trying to, I'm trying to, I'm trying to hard today. Three hits in one inning. He left the bases loaded. I turned it on, and the bases were already loaded. I think there was a bad defensive play behind him. The announcers were talking about it. He also made a bad throw on a comebacker that could have been a game ending double play. It didn't end up mattering. But Matt Bowman, going back to last year, has 17 and a third scoreless innings, Matt Bowman for the Cardinals. And Trevor Rosenthal hasn't walked a batter with five strikeouts and two and a third. So it seems like there might be some options. But do you think we should

be worried about this. He didn't give up a run. He got to save, but he pitched out of a base of loaded jam. So we'd be worried about this if we're a San Juan O owner. Just the second time he hasn't given up a run. Well, Chris was the one who yesterday seemed the most confident in O's still.

And Chris is also the one who usually points out these things, being the thing being that O's velocity is down two miles per hour here or early going. No. Not according to pitch effects. It's down about half a mile. per hour. Brooks baseball? No, fan graphs.

Oh, okay. Well, there we go. Conflicting data sources. Always makes analysis so much more interesting and compelling. What are you doing? Let me double check on my data source to make sure I didn't just

write it down wrong. Well, what are you doing with this situation? Are you worried about oh, are you picking up somebody just in case? Tell me. I mean, I don't know that there's a clear enough replacement or really even a good enough replacement in the Cardinals bullpen that I'm picking anyone up there. But certainly I'm in on the Bush sweepstakes on the Kelly sweepstakes. Well, you're dropping O for them? No, no, no, no.

Just if I need to insure him. Yeah, my thing is, like, I know Trevor Rosenthal's throwing hard, but there's a reason he lost this job last year. reason nobody really shed any tears about him losing the job. Bowman has good control, great ground ball rate, but doesn't look like an elite closer option to me, so I still think Sanguano is the best pitcher there. So, yeah, according to Brooks baseball, average fastball velocity last year for O was 93.5. This year is 92, which is more like a mile per hour and a half, but then you factor in the adjustment we're making for all pictures, even.

a mile per hour less. And, you know, I'll say it's about two. All right. It's concerning, whatever it is. All right, so keep an eye on Senuano. And let me give you a bunch of guys. Do you tell me, are you changing your mind on the following players? Let's start with you, Darvish, who has so far in only 24 and two-thirds innings,

career low strikeout percentage, which is still a good one, but not a great one. Career low swinging strike percentage, career high walk percentage, and a career high What the heck is What did I write in my notes? Career high is something bad. It's strike percentage, so it's actually a career low.

It's so early, but the amount of strikes, percentage of strikes, he's throwing a career low. But, all right, how are you changing your mind at all? And you Darvish, or do you still value him as an ace?

I value him as an ace. You know, if those trends continue, obviously, it'll have to be something I look closer at, but it is very early. Agreed? I haven't changed my mind on him yet. All right, Darvish is fine. Darvish or Carrasco? Darvish. I'm still going Darvish.

Darvish or DeGrom? DeGrom. Avi. Yeah, I think so. I think DeGrom. All right. Are you changing your mind on Jonathan V.R. Who has five walks, 23 strikeouts, and is batting 133? His strikeout rate, I think, is, it's, it's Byron Bucks. I believe. I think it's like almost 40% now.

That's not a great sign. I'm not, and, you know, obviously Chris was one of those who didn't want anything to do with VR coming into the year, right? I wasn't drafting him where he was going, yeah. And I was a little more willing to. I don't have a lot of shares in him. It's concerning, yeah, there are reasons to be concerned coming in, and I think they're only amplified now. I'm not pulling the plug just yet. VR right now is the number 16 shortstop in points, leagues number 14 in Roto,

which isn't bad considering he's batting 133. It's not like he's in the 30s. Also, he entered yesterday's game 0 for 13 against lefties. Last year, VR batted 309 and slugged 545 against lefties. And he was solid against lefties in 2015 as well. So I'd like to think that for VR, that's going to change, and he can do a lot of damage against lefties. He's just not hitting them right now.

He's getting a little bit of bad luck, too. 147 Babbat. That's going to turn around. He's still hitting for power. He's still stealing bases. The strikeout rate's concerning, but not so much that I've changed my view of him. Francisco Lindor is, well, Seeger. Seeger's been very good.

But Lindoror, I think, is the only one who's, like, really, having a big year. Shortstop's been terrible. Correa hasn't been good and he's missed two straight games. By the way, Alex Bregman is two appearances away from shortstop eligibility. Please, that'd be great. Peraza, we're going to talk about in a bit, but VR's been bad, story has been bad, 11 Miz Diaz's ice cold, Zander, Bogartz isn't hitting for power. It's just bad start for shortstop right now. Yeah, the top five looks kind of ridiculous at that position. Yeah. Because all the expected sources. But, you know, I went through this exercise yesterday.

It was a column that never ended up coming to fruition because of the Starling Marte news. But I was looking at the top sixes around the infield, the top 12 at the outfield. And my takeaway was basically, if you feel like your team is bad right now, it very well may not be, because nothing looks quite as we expect it to still two and a half weeks ago. Well, yeah, like that's something I've noted so far is that, like, my zero-ace-zero starting pitcher strategy has actually worked out okay. I've hit on some pretty good pitchers, and all of my hitters suck. And so that's kind of the point where I'm like, I need to just tell myself, it's going to be okay. Miguel Cabrera hit a 450-foot home run yesterday.

Things are going to be fine. Oh, he clobbered that ball. Have you changed your mind on Kevin Gossman, who is 94% over? Do you still think Kevin Gossman is a must-own starting pitcher? Okay, so I don't know what the heck is going on with Kevin Gossman. He introduced a new breaking ball. He basically ditched his older, slower curveball, which wasn't a great pitch for him to begin with. He developed a slider, which he throws about 85 miles per hour.

He's just not throwing his splitter. I think he threw it eight times last night. What? That's like your favorite pitch in baseball? Kevin Gossman's splitter is like your favorite pitch. It's a great pitch. It's like a plus pitch. He threw it about 20% of the time, and in the second half of the season, it was much higher than that.

I think he was getting into the 30% range in the second half of the season a lot of the times. And I thought that was a great sign for him because it's his best pitch, and you should throw your best pitch as often as you can. He's not. And that's kind of, that's a thing where I'm like, well, if he just starts to, throwing his good pitch again, he'll be good, right? Like, doesn't that, doesn't that? So you're willing to wait? It's a little really simplistic, but like, that's almost like a silver lining on that

gray cloud is that like he's just kind of not pitching right. You're willing to wait for, Chris. You're holding on Kevin Gosman. You're not dropping him? I'm not starting him anymore, but yeah, I'll hang on to him for now. All right, have you changed your mind on Victor Martinez? As, I don't know, as someone who's good. He's batting 205 with no extra base hits.

He's certainly at the age where, like, this could be the end. Yeah. In a points league, I mean, a shallow roster league, I might have to consider making other use of that roster spot, but deeper leagues, no. I mean, look, he's someone that you were able to draft with your last pick a lot of the time. So I don't know how valuable a DH-only 38-year-old is if he gets off to a slow start.

I think it's fine to drop him. Okay, that is Victor Martinez. Have you changed your mind at all on Andrew Benintendi? And I mean it in this regard. Last year, I kind of felt like Benintendi – well, he was. He was a points league specialist or any league that sort of counts extra base hits and walks. Because he didn't – Homer, he didn't steal bases. He hit a lot of doubles last year.

11 doubles in 34 games. Right now, Benintendi has one home run and one steal. He is batting 321. But is Andrew Benintendi going to be an overrated player in rotisserie leagues? I was like, the guy's hitting 321. Why are you like asking of his, you're asking us of Andrew Benintendi sucks? Is that what I said? I said, is he going to be overrated in rotissory leagues?

It's no sense that I say, does Andrew Benetentini suck? Yeah, but it's kind of the implication here. No, it's the category. He's struck out in less than 10% of his at-bats. As a rookie, yes, six strikeouts and 56 at-bats. Yeah, he's as a rookie. He's going to be like a batting title contender, I think. Guys, if he doesn't steal bases or hit home runs,

he's going to be one of those guys that's better in points leagues than Roto, and maybe significantly better. If, but it's... Like, I think the biggest hurdle for any player just breaking into the majors is competence. And Benintendi is showing well more than competence now. So let's give him some time to work his way into those other contributions. Right. If he had two home runs and two steals at this point, would we be asking that question?

It's like it's one away. It's also a continuation from last year. I just wanted to know what kind of player he's going to be. If Ben-inteney is going to be a doubles hitter that doesn't steal bases, then I'm telling you he's more valuable in points leagues or any league that counts extra base hits and not just home runs. Sure, but that's the case. But like, he's still going to be a must-star guy, I think.

And that's, I don't know. I'm just not willing to speculate that far ahead for a talent of this caliber. Well, let me ask. Adam Eaton is someone that you would say is better in points than better, right? Much better, much better. You're still starting him across the board and rather. But look, last night I was trying to make some trades. And I thought about offering up in our five outfielder Roto League,

I thought about offering up Ben and Tendi for Jose Baut. Bautista. I don't know. Like, I've got to look at my team to decide what's more important. Power or batting average, because the difference in batting average is going to be huge. But I was drafting Bautista earlier. Bautista's walking a lot, so I still think he's going to be all right. I still think he's going to, you know, come out of this. And he could hit 20 more home runs than Andrew Ben and Tendi and drive in a lot more runs. So I don't know. I thought about it. I didn't do it, but. Well, okay. I mean, I don't think that would be a crazy trade. But, like, I can't take the perspective of what I'm seeing Andrew Benintendi do doing right now.

It's discouraging to me. I just can't make that lead. And I didn't really mean it like that. I just because I still think, of course, he's a must start. But if you evaluate a guy like Andrew Benintendi and you think, all right, he's going to be a little overrated in a standard five-by-five rotel league that doesn't count OBP. counts batting at, which is still good, but he's a guy we expect to draw walks. Then maybe you can flip him for an even better player. Like, would you trade Andrew Benintendi for Carlos Gonzalez right now?

Sure. But that's not necessarily, like, I had Carlos Gonzalez, like, 40, 50 spots ahead of Andrew Benintendi, and I was the high guy in Antrientendi. All right. Would you trade? I don't want to go down. Let me give you a six. Let me give you a similar example, Adam.

You know, I'm kind of relying on memory with this. But April last year, Corey Seeger's power was mostly showing his doubles. And he wasn't a guy who, despite his pedigree, he wasn't a player who had a lot of home runs in the minors either. So you could have made the same case for Corey Seeger last April, and you would have been dead wrong. Okay. Well, you project more power then and more home runs from Ben and Ben and he. You also have to take into account that he's on pace for 90 runs and 100 RBI right now. All right.

Do you project, how many home runs do you think Andrew Benintendi will hit? As a 15-15 guy. What was that? I think he's a 15-15 guy. As a rookie, yeah, I would say between 12 and 15. I think he has the upside for more further along. Yeah, I mean, he's got a 40% fly ball rate right now. So it's not, it doesn't take a lot of projection to get him to 20 home runs just with

how often he hits the ball in the air. All right. And I'm going to come back to this. Are You Changing Your Mind's segment in just a second? But it's important for me to tell you all about ZipRecruiter. Anyone who's hiring or will be hiring in the future, we've got a great way for you to find the perfect hire for free. Post your job to 100 plus job sites, including social media networks like Facebook and

Twitter for free. ZipRecruiter. How do you do it for free by going to ZipRecruiter.com slash strike? You post your job on ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. You can find candidates in any city or industry nationwide. Post once and watch your qualified candidates roll in. You can quickly screen candidates, rate them, and quickly hire the right people. It's a great tool for anyone who's hiring.

A lot of companies, including medium and small-sized businesses, are using ZipRecruiter. If you go on the website, you'll see why. And our listeners can do this for free. You can post your jobs on ZipRecruiter by going to ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. That's ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. For this free, great offer. You're going to really like it, people. Give it a shot.

Tell me, are you changing your mind on any of these guys who are still pretty available? Mitch Morland hit his 10th double yesterday, and he drove in three runs. David Freeze is off to a very good start, and Chase Headley is now 44% owned. He's actually the most owned of the three. Morland, David Freeze, and Chase Headley. Headley right now, a top five third basement batting 395 with three steals. How about this 10 walks, nine strikeouts for Headley? Have you changed your mind at all on Morland, Free?

and Headley? No, not really. I have moved all three up a little in my rankings, but they were so far down. Like there's a lot of room to maneuver in that range. I would, if I am picking them up anywhere, it strictly is a hot hand play, and I'm not counting on them rest of season.

Yeah, I don't think I've changed my mind on any of them. I thought Mitch Morland could be an interesting option coming into the season, batting where he was in that lineup. But he's also still having just like a really weird season. He keeps hitting doubles. I think he had a ball that was hit 420 feet the other day that was a double because I think it bounced right off the top of the wall.

He's having a very odd start to the season. And I think they've still only faced one left-handed pitcher. So he will sit more eventually. They faced two. And he started against both. So I don't know. Chris, how you doing over there? You all right, bud?

Great, great. Just great. Should I share with the audience what I shared with you this morning about why I was delayed? Oh, sure, yeah. I'm sure we've all dealt with this problem. The hazards of working at home. Yeah, I was a little late to the podcast today because I had to, a great way to start the morning, clean up some cat vomit.

She was just, I was doing my notes finishing up and right behind me, I hear, you know this i don't want to do that it was absolutely disgusting so yeah sometimes i pick the cat up and hold it over the trash can when that starts i woke up uh i woke up super early i got to work at like 820 today uh because my cat decided to wake me up at 630 in the morning and i couldn't get back to sleep so you know it's great you're not up at 630 at the boarding oh god no he gets up at like 730 i don't i don't know how he does it like i i get up at 6 6 And I'm in a mad dash to get here with things halfway completed. Yeah.

You know, by 9-10, which is 10 minutes later than you want me here. And Chris just rolls out of bed and, you know, cruises into work. Look, I have very busy mornings. I eat breakfast. I do my hair. I wash the dog for a walk. I accomplish a lot in that 40 minutes between when I wake up and when I leave. But the real question is, what do you look like, Chris?

and one of our emailers, Tim, Tim from Mount Vernon, Washington State said, you read an email the other day from a listener who found photos of you all and was disappointed to discover what you actually look like. Since I don't know what any of you actually look like, here are four photos of how I imagine you look based on listening to the show for the past two months. Oh, gosh. You didn't see this? No.

Obviously, I can't share the photos with the listeners because, you know, it's audio. but if you know what these people look like, he did unbelievably well to the point where, like, I can't believe that he doesn't actually know what we look like. He thinks that I look like a young Adam Horowitz, who's Ad Rock from the Beastie Boys. He thinks Chris looks like a smug of Mr. Bean. He thinks,

you see, like all the other ones aren't that mean, and then that one's really mean, and I'm going to fight this person now. Oh, man. Scott, but you're going to do it without talking. because you're Mr. Bean. Scott looks like a young David Hyde Pierce, Niles Crane of the TV show Frasier. And Heath looks exactly like singer-songwriter Damien Gerato, Herato. I'd never heard of that guy. I've never heard of that person either. But if you go to the email that Tim

sent, like he kind of nailed it. It's really weird. Good for you. Other important emails and tweets. From Chris, who is the next upcoming stud I need to own that's under 50% owned? I mean, he lists, there's a list of guys here. That's my list. That's my list. That's my list. I think it's a good list. Jorge Saler is probably my favorite on this list.

Okay, I'll read the list then. These are scenes images are, uh. It's funny, right? Like, he nailed it. Especially you and me, I feel like. Yeah, they're very funny. They, uh, I mean, yeah, that's not far off. Good work, Tim.

I look like some, I look like every other Jewish guy. Thank you. I mean, you do, yeah, you do kind of. look like I had rock though yeah I do I guess I never realized it but yeah um so the the list I came up with with the guys who are under 50% own that could be a stud yuleiguriel tri mancini jung ho gongong michael conforto horhe soler bradley zimmer jerks and pro far jimmy nelson who's the only pitcher I put on here I'm sure I'm missing a pitcher yeah of that group could be a Solair's probably the one I'm most likely to own.

Yeah, it was a tough list. I definitely think Michael Conforto could be a stud. Yeah, Comforto is probably the most owned, for me, of that group. All it takes is one injury or, you know, a lengthy Curtis Granderson slump or a trade, still a possibility. And he's in and very likely a stud. Yeah, I think he would be a stud if he got an everyday job. I just, I don't trust the Mets to do the right thing here. All right, so we got about eight minutes before I want to spend the rest of the show on grade the trade.

And I do want to read a tweet that I think is going to set Scott off. And that is the tweet about why wouldn't you just tell your league that Rizzo is not eligible at second base problem solved? Oh, yeah, I was mixing it up with this guy on Twitter. Let's see if we have time for it. But I want to talk about a few other baseball things real quick, right? Billy Hamilton and Jose Parraza, the importance of steals. Billy Hamilton and Jose Parraza are basically not hitting. There are slugging percentage as a joke.

They're both slugging 302 and 309. Hamilton 309, Paraza 302. They're hitting around 250. They're on base percentages around 287. Hamilton and Parraza are having almost exactly the same season right now. And what was my point? Oh, yeah. My point is they lead baseball with six steals.

and their walk to strikeout ratio is fine. In fact, Paraza has one walk, two strikeouts, Hamilton, three walk, seven strikeouts. What I wanted to do was, since they bat leadoff, if you take their production right now, and Paraza, by the way, is the number seven shortstop and fantasy, if you take their production right now based on per plate appearance, and you give them 600 plate appearances,

Billy Hamilton, based on last year, you give him 600 plate appearances, he'd be the number 18 outfielder in points leagues and probably a little better in Roto. Parraza would be the number eight shortstop based on last year. That's what's 600 played appearances. Give him 650, which is very realistic. You're talking about the number five shortstop based on last year and the number eight outfielder based on last year. So Hamilton and Paraza, just by leading the league in steals with six right now apiece, are doing really well.

this morning, they both have more steals than 17 of the 30 major league teams. Individual. Each individually has more steals. Wow. And, you know, I think in terms of trade targets for Marte owners, Peraza's pretty high on the list, just because he is hitting 240 right now, I still have a lot of confidence he is going to be

a good source of batting average. You said it yourself. I mean, as fast as he is, the fact he has only two strikeouts with all the abats he's gotten? He does have maybe the highest soft contact percentage I've ever seen at 37%. Last year or this year?

This year. It's early. But yeah, I think both him and Hamilton are actually having the seasons that we would have hoped for from them because they've both dramatically cut their strikeout rates. They've both

you know, Paraz's had a little worse luck with Babbit, but, you know, Hamilton is at 286. He's probably closer to like a 300, 320 Babbib guy. I think you could view both of them as by-low guys. Okay, yeah. And like they're doing fine, but people, it might be perceived as they're not because the batting average is so low. And I'm just proving to you right now that even if they don't hit for a high batting average, if they stay in the lineup, get a bunch of.

plate appearances and still a lot of bases. Billy Hamilton and Jose Parraza are going to have good fantasy years. All right, let me fly through the rest of it here. Buster Posey's back. Zander Bogart's let off yesterday, but Dustin Padrae was just resting. Jackie Bradley could be back on Friday. Matt Carpenter and Carlos Correa remained day-to-day. Eric Thames hit two doubles.

No one Aronado said, yeah, take that. I hit two home runs. Herardo Paras sat against a lefty, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jack Pedeson started against a lefty. Hooray. Clay Buckholtz is likely out for the season. Zach Eflin or Ephron, if you want to make him extremely good-looking, was called up, and he started yesterday, and it didn't go. It was actually okay, but he's very, very NL only.

Wei and Chen was pulled after seven innings, 100 pitches, and had a no-hitter intact. Yeah, I'm surprised I let him go to seven. That's not the Marlins way. Marlins pulled someone with a no-hitter in the fifth last year. It was Conley, wasn't it? What? Was it Conley? Might have been.

It was over the weekend. He was like five innings and they were just like, he's done. I'm pretty sure it was. And also like that same day or that same weekend, it happened to Shamaniah. Five innings, five walks, no hits, and a ton of pitches. So this is three pitches. I think Chatwood got pulled with a no hitter in the seventh that same day. Oh, wow.

It's happening a lot now. Pitch count. And the decisions were probably the right ones. Howie Kendrick's on the deal with an abdominal strain. Logan Forsyth, Day to Day to, right toe contusion, hamstring injury. Justin Upton, X-rays were negative on his forearm. He has a contusion.

Still no timetable for Carlos Rodan. J.D. Martinez is nearing a rehab assignment. Aaron Sanchez had a portion of his fingernail removed. Jorge Soler had a setback in his recovery as he recovers from the oblique injury. David Wright will begin baseball activity soon. And, man, Jose Reyes has not done anything to keep that job. In fact, he committed a game-costing error yesterday. Trey Turner will not come off the DL when he's first eligible, but it doesn't seem like it'll be much longer.

He and Seguera, you could definitely have both Turner and Seguera back for Fantasy Week 4. And the great Marcelo Zuna was robbed of a three-run home run yesterday. Yes, he was. Yeah. So he's off to a really good start. Did you see the David Price thing? No. I thought it was worth discussing.

He's slowing down his progress. I think it doesn't sound like it was like a setback. I think it was more like he did a lot of work last week, so they're kind of pulling off the gas pedal this week. He's just throwing off flat ground for the next couple of days. So just worth acknowledging that. Okay. And let's talk about some pitchers.

Marcus Stroman got clobbered yesterday. Do we care? It'll happen. I have been getting the sense from this podcast that he's a little... He's starting to be considered a little more reliable than he actually is. I think we do like, Chris and I very much like Marcus Stroman. But I will say that this kind of game is very much within the realm of possibility for someone who relies as much on his defense as Marcus Stroman does.

I had hoped, based on the way his second half went, that he was becoming more of a strikeout pitcher, but that hasn't played out at all in early going here. Yeah. Well, we argued about that on last week's podcast when you weren't here, so I'll move on. Okay. To these fringy starting pitchers, and tell me who you like from this list. We'll start pretty high end and go fairly low end. Luis Severino, Mike Leak.

Are we cool dropping Mike Leak now that we've got him for the two-star week, or should we hang on them? Yeah, I'm cool with that. All right. Severino, Mike Leak, Zach Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Shelby Miller Junjin Ryu Mike Fultenevich Jason Hamill

Jimmy Nelson I think Well did you mention Severino He's in the notes Severino is the clear winner Yeah yeah obviously But I think the one who needs to be

The second most owner of this group Is I'm pretty sure Chris will agree with it Shelby Miller Shelby Miller Yeah I mean it was the Padres last night But seven Seven in a third one run.

He was throwing 99 miles per hour, and his first two starts were decent. He didn't go the minimum required for a quality start, but they were encouraging after the year he just had. And, you know, 99 miles per hour, he still doesn't have the strikeout rate that you'd expect for a pitcher to throw that hard, and the walks are, you know, he's probably not going to be a low-whip guy. All the same issues he had before last year's collapse are still there. but relative to our expectations coming into the year,

that's going to make him, even though he was slightly underwhelming at the first few years of his career, he was still basically a guy who was owned across the board in fantasy and started in more leagues than not. And I think he is getting back to that after an off-season sorting out his mechanics. All right, that's Shelby Miller. I'm sorry, guys. I'm going to speed you up here so we can read some grade the trade.

Is there anyone else that you feel like has a good potential, for the rest of the season, not just someone that we're looking at matchups. And that's between Mike Leak, Zach Wheeler, Joe Musgrove, Ryu, Fultenevich, Hamill and Jimmy Nelson. Zach Wheeler's by far my favorite of this group. He's also the highest own, so that's kind of not super helpful. But I think he's someone that people might be looking to drop. He's only gone, I don't think he's gone six innings in any of his starts.

And that's always been an issue for him. He's always been inefficient. He's always had trouble getting deep into games. but I've been somewhat encouraged by what I've seen so far. I think the innings thing will be artificially, you know, pull down even more. Yeah, he's got a 120-inning limit, and he might get 25 starts out of that. Well, he's also faced the Phillies twice for what it's worth. Okay.

He probably needs to be owned, but I just, I don't know that you'll ever be comfortable starting him in a one-star week because of the early hooks. That's Zach Wheeler. And then in deeper leagues, Chad Cool. I like Chad Cool. I was wrong about the stat I gave, as Scott pointed out. I gave the stat that he had like a 310 ERA against everyone that wasn't the Cubs last year. It was more like 350, which isn't terrible. Chad Cool, Ricking, Alasko, Way and Chen, Matt Cain, Miguel Gonzalez,

who threw 88 pitches in 8 and a 3rd. And Matt Andres. Are you interested in any of these guys? Cool, in Alaska, Chen, Kane, Gonzalez, Andres. Matt Andres might be the most interesting of this group. I like cool. Can we call this group Cool and the Gang? Cool in the gang.

I just want to mention for Miguel Gonzalez's 16 starts now dating back to last season. He has a 275 ERA. So I have him in an AAL-only league, and I'm happy with him in that context. I don't really see any of this group graduating to mixed league relevance, except maybe Andres, because he probably has the best strikeout potential in the bus bunch. And obviously in points leagues, he's RP eligible. All right. Let's grade some trades.

read some emails at fantasy football, nope, fantasy baseball, excuse me, at cbsi.com. Ooh, my bad. Michael O'Reilly, give Eric Thames and John Lackey, give Eric Thames and John Lackey get Cole Hamels. I think that's a C-minus. He already has Votto and Murphy, so he doesn't need Thames. So he gives Thames and Lackey, and he gets Cole Hamels. Oh, you can play Thames in the outfield. You can play Thames at first base.

play Murphy at second. This is a B minus to me. I like this trade. I'm going to call it a C. Maybe with contextual extra credit, I take it to a C plus. But I just feel like, I don't know. Some days I don't really feel, I'm not really feeling Hamils as a high-end option. Obviously, he's good, but I go back and forth on that, just how high-end he is. From Justin, I was offered Marcel Ozuna for Kelvin Herrera. This is a Marte owner. So would you give up Calvin Herrera for Marcelo Zuna? I think that's fine in that context.

I think Herrera is safer, but he's a closer, so. Okay. I certainly think Ozuna has the potential to be a lot more value. Yeah. I mean, it depends on how valuable saves are in your league, but at face value, I'll call it a C-plus. Yeah, I would say B-minus. Matthew from the desert in California.

Deer, insert your favorite fast food place here. Waterburger. Scott? Chick-fil-A. Taco Bell. The other day you guys talking about Trey Mancini, would you rather stash Mancini or Byron Buxton? I would rather stash Buxton. Mancini.

I would rather stash Buxton. Okay. This is from Sam and Columbus. Great the Trade. 10-team CBS Roto Plus League. I don't know what that means, but I've been offered Eric Thames for my Jose Cantana. I have Cinderguard, Archer, Paxton, and Salazar. I need dongs.

Give up Cantana, get Thames. C-minus. I think it's a C. I think it's fine. I wouldn't, I don't love it. You have really, you really buy into Eric Thames, which is fine. But, Chris, based on what you're saying, not loving the Hamils trade, not loving the Kintana trade, you obviously think Thames is not going to just completely slump and... Which is funny, because I felt like his response yesterday during the big Thames discussion were the most guarded.

Well, yeah, I think that's... I think that's more a reflection of a sort of not that enthusiastic view of either Hamils or... Kentana. Okay. By the way, I, speaking of Cantana, another day, another Azer trade rejected. I offered, somebody put Cantana on the market. I offered Keon Broxton and Alex Cobb.

This to the Starling Marte owner, by the way. Keon Broxon and Alex Cobb for Cantana, that was rejected. Of course it was. And then he proposed to me Brandon Drury and Jose Cantana for my AJ Pollock, which I will be rejecting with an expletive. in the note that I said. And I do want to point out that my lack of enthusiasm about

Jose Gantana is not a reaction to the first three starts. I just, you don't want expensive pitching, period, not even at this point. I think, I just think he's good, not great, and I'm not sure you'll miss him all that much. Okay. It's not really expensive when you're giving a, well, I mean, never mind. Never mind. David and Illinois. I don't think it's a great trade. I just, I think it's fine in that context. Grade this trade. Give up Bogarts and Andrew Benintendi. Get Carlos Correa and then pick up Luis Severino. So give up Bogarts and Benintendi, get Carlos Correa. And with the roster spot, get Severino. This is what you really have to do to pull away in those shallow leagues where it seems like everybody has stars at every position. I mean, Severino. I assume it's a shallow league just because Severino is still available. So understanding that context, I think any time you can consolidate two players for a better player, even if it seems like a modest upgrade.

I don't know. I don't know. I'll call it a B-minus. I don't know, Chris. Because I don't know how, in my personal opinion, I'm not sure Coray is that much better than Bogart's. I think he's, in the best case scenario, I think he's significantly better. But I agree with Scott's reasoning. I'll go B-minus as well.

Okay, we've got a Mitch Hanager trade from Ryan and Texas. Give up Hanager, get Julio Taran, 10 team points league. B-minus. Yeah, it'd be hard for me to turn. Even as much as I love Hanigur, I couldn't pass up that. Haniger, by the way, broke up a no-no yesterday that Mitch Haniguer. And he didn't strike out. Of course, Wei and Chen struck out nobody, so.

Broke up a team no-no, but good for him. From Jerry, head-to-head categories league. give up Nolan Aeronado and Manuel Margo Give up Nolan Aronado and Manuel Margo Get back Anthony Rizzo Jayreys Familia and Brandon Drury So

I guess Yeah I think that's a B minus Which is my default answer to every single trade today I'm like halfway in between a C plus and a B minus Like an 80. It's an 80 grade. Hey,

if we did grade the trade on Valentine's Day, would they all be be mine? Like be mine? You are trying to. Chris just take his headset off and discuss it. Oh, no. All right, we'll finish off then with grade the trade from Jake. I was offered Eric Thames for Charlie Blackman.

You're back, Chris? Apparently Jake plays in the league with Adam Azer. Yeah, that's... Yeah, you want black, but... I'll say D-minus. That's... I'll be gentle. That's fighting.

Thanks for the emails, everybody. They are really pouring in, and we appreciate it. And I wish we could read more, but... You just can't. So, thanks for listening. Back tomorrow with the Wednesday recap and some by-erself for Scott and Chris. I'm Adam.

See you later.