Fantasy Baseball Today - 04/21 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Legit-O-Meter, Neris, Week 4 Help

Episode Date: April 21, 2017

It's a fun Friday show and we're dusting off the Legit-O-Meter. How legit are Lance McCullers, Jason Vargas, Travis Shaw, Ervin Santana, Wade Miley and others? ... Should you be adding Michael Conforto and Jedd Gyorko? Is it time to drop Jose Baustia? ... Two-start pitchers for Week 4, bullpen news and Team Name Tuesday on a Friday! ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I'm going to drink so cola, rikisks, number geekers, bunch of podcast wisdom seekers, Ben and D. 21st of April. And I am pretty excited about the weekend. I'm very excited for this show. It'll be a little bit different. We, of course, will talk about Thursday's action, but also look ahead to week four. And I want to try to do the last, let's say, 15 minutes or so of the show as a mailbag. I have a lot of emails that I want to get to. Good morning, Scott White and Heath Cummings.

What's going on? Oh, Adam. How are you? I'm very good. Yeah. Yeah, a little better call Saul last night, a little Brockmeier. Yeah. Man, you just had a binge session.

Yeah, sure did. But also little Mets Phillies and a little Paxson last night. It was a good night, fun night. Not if you owned Paxton. Might have been a little frustrated. Yeah, yeah. It was fun to watch him. And I actually only watched the good Paxon.

Hello, Heath. Hi. All right. We're excited. We're fired up today. Look, Hector Nerris got to save for the Phillies. We'll talk about that. We're going to get a little bit of a prospects report and find out which prospects you need to be stashing.

Carlos Martinez with another rough outing. Danny Duffy, where are the strikeouts? 22 strikeouts and 27 and a third. And it's a meter day. Dropometer, legitometer. Let's get to the show. I asked you guys for draft picks that you love and draft picks that you are regretting. three weeks into the season.

Two of each. Scott, why don't you kick us off with two draft picks that right now you are loving? Well, I think the first choice is probably pretty obvious. Mitch Hanigger? Hanigers and hot dogs, yes. Because he is pretty much immediately assumed a starting outfield job in every league where I own him.

Not too surprisingly, but just the fact I got him even though he wasn't even I couldn't force him that high in my rankings I still made sure to get him late in a lot of my leagues with that last pick just because he was a player I believed in and even when it was a league where he went undrafted entirely I had that immediate claim when it looked like

he was making an impact right away and even though I have some concerns about consistency with him he keeps striking out this way impact it might have on his batting average, I think the power speed combo is legit at the very least. And I don't

think he's going to slump enough that I'll ever be motivated to remove him from my lineup. Mitch Hanager's number one on that list for me. Who's number two? Why don't we go with Heath's number one? All right, yeah, let's go to Heath. Shaw, like you even need to ask.

Well, can I interrupt you here because Scott says Mitch Hanager, he says Travis Shaw. I'm sure Chris would say James Paxton. Were those the three players that you guys loved on Valentine's Day? Were those your players you loved Hanager, Paxton, and Shaw? I actually loved Paxton. Oh, okay, okay.

Hanager wasn't included in that, but then I regretted it in the weeks that followed. Not that you can really regret loving Paxton. No, no. So, Heath, you were Shaw, right? I don't remember at all. I'm kind of a love-em-and-leave-em kind of guy. and who I loved two months ago is just totally forgetable. Chris may have been Lance McCullors.

I think you guys really deserve a lot of credit for the, I don't know, sort of sleepers or breakouts that I most associated you all with are off the great starts. So congratulations on that. Travis Shaw Heath is going to be on the Legitometer later today, 70% owned. So we can come back to him. Heath, he's another draft pick that you really like as of right now. Well, it's probably the guy you just mentioned that was, the guy Chris loved because it was funny.

Chris was the guy that talked up Lance McCuller's the most, but he kept realizing that I was always higher on him on the rankings than he was. And I got him in a bunch of our early drafts until Chris just had to draft him at a point that was well above where he had him ranked just so he could get him. I think Scott almost had to try to do that with Paxson at one point. So I would definitely say McCullors, I've got him on three or four different rosters and he has been everything. I was hoping for. All right, Scott, you got a second one? I do.

Matt Harvey, who I started to hedge a little bit in the middle of spring training with him when it just seemed like the media kind of turned on him. But then soon after that, he started hitting 96, touching 97. And I was like, all right, this is going to go well eventually. It's gone better than I even imagined it to go at the time I was drafting him. and I basically have no concerns about ever starting him anymore. Would you guys rather have Jose Cantana or Matt Harvey? Cantana.

Yeah, it's close. It's close. I'll say Cantana, too. I've moved Harvey up, though, and I don't disagree that it's been encouraging start. I just, I had him quite a bit lower, so me moving them up, didn't get him to Cantana's rank quite yet. All right. Who are some draft picks you regret? Heath, give me a couple draft picks you're regretting right now.

Certainly with the news yesterday, David Price. I really thought I was being clever getting him in the 10th, 9th, 8th, sometimes round, and I don't know when he's going to pitch. Yesterday they said he had a little bit of soreness. I didn't take it to be such bad news. They were backing off a little bit with David Price. But you have David Price. You drafted him like every league, I think.

Oh, he's... Yeah, I started the year with one DL spot in every league. I either had Carlos Rodon or David Price. Now, Rodon was different because I took him mostly in drafts before he got hurt. So I can't really regret that. That would feel like, I mean, you can't second guess drafting a guy and then he gets hurt. So when would David Price have to return for you to not regret it? Mid-May.

Okay. I was thinking May 15th when I was drafting him that I was getting a really good value. That still seems realistic, I think. I didn't take it as such discouraging news either. Good. Maybe I was just overreacting. I took it as I'm hoping I see him in June. Okay.

All right. We'll have to see. We really don't know with David Price. Scott, pick you regret. Kind of a similar situation. And Rich Hill. Rich Hill is a regret. You know, blisters,

I kind of see them as, as, Random and unpredictable. With a knuckleball of injuries. Yeah, but that, I mean, obviously that's proven not to be the case with this one. It seems like the friction, his curveball grip, which is, you know, very important to his success. What it creates on his finger, it just keeps blistering it. So, you know, and there were reason to believe, you know, pretty much everybody was regarding him as an injury risk player. and I kind of took the angle of, you know what, what if he's not?

How valuable is he going to be at his going rate if he's not? And already that narrative seems to be a lost cause. We got an email. I'm going to try to find out who it was from, but I know the question was, should I trade Jason Vargas for Rich Hill in a head-to-head categories league? This is from Ted from La La Land. Congratulations on winning your best picture, Ted.

I was offered Rich Hill for Jason Vargas in a head-to-head categories league. What would you do? Take it in a heartbeat. Well, Al-Lampe didn't even win best picture. I know. It won best picture for like five minutes. The joke still works. Okay.

Yeah, I would take Richel. Absolutely. If it was a points league, I might try to hold off until Monday and execute the trade, so it happens after his two-start week against the twins and white socks. Not bad. Not bad. Vargas is 70% owned now, by the way. Okay, so each of you just real quick, give me one more pick.

that you regret. Jose Batista. I'm not giving up on him, but he looks done. Francisco Rodriguez, I kind of saw him as a safe safety net for saves. Ooh, nice. And he's, I mean, he's throwing 88. He's not safe at all.

I've dropped him in a couple leagues where closers are plentiful. All right. Thank you. That has been our thoughts on our drafts. Wait, who do you regret? I regret Robert Gazellman. I have him, I think, on four of five teams. at least three.

Oh, don't regret him. No, he's not, you've made worse picks than that. Give us some Gregory Polanco. He just had a great start. I don't regret Gregor Pallon. He had a great start against the Phillies, right? Was it against the Phillies? And it wasn't even that great.

His strikeout to walk ratio and the number of innings he has is very encouraging. And I regret drafting Shamaniah over Jamest and Tyone. That one hurts right now. I really like Tyone. Yeah, I'm not sure that's not going to turn out better for you in the long run. It might. Look, all the things. that we said, like, Batista could be fine,

Price could be fine, Rich Hill. Jayrod's done. He's done. He's still, like, this is what he does. He struggles, but he gets saves. Yeah, but he doesn't struggle with velocity, usually. Yeah. Hey, listen, about your emails, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

I just want to say that, you know, I'm very happy to say our show is growing in popularity, and we appreciate it. We really appreciate all of you listeners. I try to do my best to make sure the listeners know how important they are to the show. I read a lot of tweets and emails, team names, stuff like that.

Got some team names coming up later. But I know some people might be frustrated that we're not reading your emails. I've emailed five times. I haven't heard back. We just get so many now that it's a good problem to have. But I do apologize. I wish we could be a little more responsive. I'll try my best to respond to some throughout the day without reading them on the air.

But I just want you to know that's what's going on. All right. In the bullpen, Hector Nerris got the save. He is 39% own. Pete McCannan did not really commit to a closer. Genmar Gomez got 37 saves last year for the Phillies, and it wasn't even that good. So 37's not a number to sneeze at.

That'd be great for Nerris. I don't know that it'd be that many going forward. We've already about three weeks into the year. But I'm just saying what the potential is. And Benoit pitched the eighth. All right, so now we've got Matt Bush and Nerris and Sean Kelly. I'm not sure if I'm forgetting anybody. Rank those three.

I would go Bush. And then, well, no, I'll go Kelly ahead of Nairus just because of the difference in how good the team is. But that's a pretty tight cluster there, and all of them, I think, have significant upside. I'm interpreting the Nairus situation, kind of like I am interpreting the Kelly situation. Well, no, it's a little different, I guess.

But basically, for Nairus, McCannin didn't want to commit to a closer. He didn't want to call it a closer by committee either. He didn't want to put any kind of label on it. And what I thought was most telling about what he said after the game was, I'll probably use Nerris again. Like, it seemed like, you know, Nairus is clearly the favorite now.

And look, Benoit worked the eighth, so that would suggest that too. But he just doesn't want to put any labels on it yet. Well, it's got to be a pain when you're in that situation. and you've got three guys, and two of them have already failed, and you've already basically made two changes, and you don't want to say Neris is the closer, and then he has one bout outing, and then everybody's saying, who is your closer now,

and do it over and over and over again. I think I'd put Neris ahead of Kelly, just because I'm more excited about what he could be if he gets the job for the entire year, and I think he will. I wasn't on the show yesterday, but the way I interpret the Kelly Coda Glover situation, is they're still really reluctant to use Kelly on more than two days in a row. So they want to give themselves the option of using Glover,

if ever they need a closer on that third day or whatever. But how often our closers needed three days in a row? I don't think it's that typical throughout the year. No. Yeah. So I think it'll be okay. I think Kelly's going to be the guy, at least until they trade for somebody.

Kelly got the save yesterday. He gave up a walk and a hit. We've got two outs in the eighth. Bush seems to me like the most secure for now. But, yeah, so we all would... It's kind of a funny way to put it, but I think he has the clearest path to a solitary role. Yeah, maybe the least insecure.

Like... The least risky. I don't know how to put it. But they're all interesting, and people just should know that Hector Neris, if he's available, you might want to pick him up. Last year, he had a 250-80RA. He struck out 102 batters in 80 and a third,

and he had a 11-whip. In fact, I was using Neris just as a reliever just for whip and one other category in my weird 7-by-7 league. So, you know, I just, however you want to rank it, that's the way it is. San Diego Casilla pitched the ninth after Ryan Dole, Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madsen had already pitched. He gave up a run. It was a non-saved situation. Is he the guy, you know, we probably don't have to spend much time on this, but is Santiago Casia the guy you project to have the most saved chances for Oakland?

You know, when you started, is he the guy? I was going to answer there is no guy. Yeah, I asked a better question than that. You did ask a better question. I would guess that Santiago Cascia will have the most save opportunities in Oakland, yes. Okay. That does not mean that I think I wouldn't put him behind all the other guys we've talked about. Yeah, okay.

Fair enough. Now, let's talk about yesterday's standouts. I'm going to give you two pitchers that are, well, one of the, is truly struggling. One is maybe peripherally underperforming. Carlos Martinez gave up five runs and two home runs allowed at Milwaukee. And I think we have to right now respect Milwaukee is maybe the hottest team in baseball. I think they have the most runs scored. Yeah. And I think the most homers too. The most home runs by like 30%. Okay. They're just destroying baseballs. Yeah. But this is three straight starts of less than six innings for Carlos Martinez.

He has twice given up five run runs. And remember, he started the season. season with 7 and a 3rd scoreless with no walks and 10 strikeouts against the Cubs. And then there's Danny Duffy, who's 2-0 with a 132 ERA, but 10 walks, 22 strikeouts, and 27 and a third. It's not that bad for him. It's just maybe a little disappointing. Have you changed your opinion at all on Carlos Martinez and Danny Duffy, who I imagine were ranked pretty similar as, you know, number two starting pitchers going into the year?

Not really. Martinez, both this start and last start, they talked about how he's really struggling with his fastball command right now. And it seemed like there were some hints that maybe it had something to do with him ramping up so early for the World Baseball Classic. I don't know if that's stupid World Baseball Classic. Well, I don't know. Whatever it is, it seems like a short-term thing that every pitcher deals with from

time to time and they'll get it fixed. Obviously, have the eight walks in his last start. Duffy, like, I'm torn between whether to be encouraged by the start or discouraged, because he's been very successful, even with reduced philosophy. but that strikeout to walk ratio in the number of innings he's pitched isn't encouraging on its own. I wish that either Chris was here, which I never thought I would say in the history of the podcast, or I had my computer because Chris made a good point this morning that Duffy's swinging strike rate does not match up with his lower strikeout total. So he's getting a lot of swinging strikes. He's getting a lot more swinging strikes for his strikeout total.

So I do think you could sell Duffy high possibly Because his results have been very good And I didn't have him as a top I didn't have him in the Carlos Martinez range I had him in a tier below that So in a roto league If I could trade Duffy for Martinez I'd do it Well wait you said you could

You said there are some encouraging underlying factors The swinging strike rate There are but trade you could sell high on him Yes Because I think his peripherals would tell you, he may not be a top 35 pitcher without the spark designation. That's how you feel? Because 35 is like Matt Harvey for you.

Right. You think that there's a chance, Danny Duffy shouldn't be valued as the top 35. Sorry, just explain what you did. Let me clarify my statement. Yeah, yeah. Okay, because I think if you look at the strikeout rate, you look at the walk rate, you look at the decrease in velocity, you could make a very good argument that, holy crap, Danny Duffy is not Danny Duffy. anymore. He's been lucky so far. I need to deal him. I don't feel that way. I'm not that concern because of the swinging strike rate, but I still think if I could get a guy that I had

ranked in my top 16 or 17, 18 pitchers start of the year for him, I would do it. Okay. That's well said. Prospect reports, Scott. People have been asking, which prospect should I be stashing right now? Can you give us the quick rundown and who's close to Major League ready? Who's worth stashing, blah, blah, blah. So, yeah, I write a prospects report every week, more or less, and I do list the top five

to stash at that point in time, and it doesn't necessarily mean the five closest. It means the five closest, who I think could actually make a notable impact in fantasy. And right now, that list, it's actually the same as last week. It's Julio Arias, John Moncada,

Cody Bellinger. and Bradley Zimmer, Franklin Barreto. Now, I don't really feel like any are that close. It's a stark contrast to last year. Last year, at this time, we had already seen several notable prospect callups, mostly pitchers. And this year, there doesn't seem to be a lot of noise surrounding any of those guys right now. In fact, the Dodgers seem to be going out of their way to say Arias is not coming up.

So it's not the highest priority right now. Obviously, in the kind of leagues, you know, if I could reverse the logic I was using for whether or not to start Starling Marte. And the kind of leagues where Marte is worth stashing, you could maybe think about stashing one of these players, too. Lewis Brinson is another one who I think, if the list extended beyond five, you'd be about at that same point, Brewer's outfielder. But not a lot of noise surrounding these guys right now, surrounding any prospect. Okay. The one prospect that you think could have the biggest fantasy impact in the second half of the season, let's say, could come up and be a Wilson Contreras or a Schwaburber or somebody who just changes a season for you. Who would it be? I'd still have to say Moncata, just because the skill set's so diverse and the upside's so high. And they pretty much cleared out second base for him. So it seems inevitable it's going to happen. I think it's just a matter cutting down on a strikeouts at AAA.

He would still be my top choice. I know it's kind of a boring choice. Bellinger might be, just to use a name that maybe we haven't discussed as much. Andrew Tolls in left field, he hasn't really made much of an impact. And Adrian Gonzalez, he's clearly showing his age. So between one of those spots, if Bellinger, his hot start at AAA, continues, he's a big-time power hitter with good plate discipline. and has actually been running a lot of AAA,

so I don't know that to count on that in the majors, but he's somebody who could make the kind of impact you're talking about. All right, still to come on the show. The Thames Watch, we'll be back, the Legitometer, the dropometer. Talk about a couple of twins outfielders. Austin Hedges is heating up a little bit. Geez, Chris Sale. Let me just tell you right now, Chris Sale threw 102 pitches yesterday.

80 of them were strikes. He was ridiculous yesterday. Matt Shoemaker had a good start. Daniel Norris did not. I think he got slightly unlucky, and we will give you some week four to start pitchers to pick up and hopefully read a bunch of your emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Let's do the news real quick. Jason Kipness will be back today. Jed Jerko is 53% own, guys. He is, according to the St. Louis dispatch, he is post-dispatch. St. Louis is starting third baseman.

Heath, what do you make of this? And Jerko, last year, he had 30 home runs. He had 243 with 30 home runs. So Jerko's 53% owned. He's going to be third base and second base eligible Heath. Any excitement to pick him up? I think he's a little bit underowned. And we underestimate his value as a utility type guy in a Roto League.

He's going to start playing a lot more now that Peralta doesn't. No, I don't mean utility for the Cardinals. I mean utility for your fantasy. Right. No, I just wanted to say that. He's already second base and third base eligible. He's already shortstop eligible, and now he's going to play every day. Right.

So, yeah, I think he's underrated. I just don't know. It's going to be hard to get his ownership up too high because he doesn't have any place in a points league. Would you drop Devin Travis for Jed Jerko? I don't think so. No, I don't. Maybe in a roto, I think about it, but only if I had an immediate need for, for, for, for, for, Instant production.

Jerko hit 19 home runs in a 44-game stretch last year. So he's a streaky guy. This is actually pretty big here. Yohanna Cespitus has a hamstring injury. He had leg injuries last year. He says he's going to miss a few games, but it could definitely be worse than that. So they already had Conforto starting in center field last year with Jay Bruce at first base with Duda kind of day-to-day. Actually, they don't know the extent of Duda's injury yet.

Jay Bruce made a bad play, though. He showed some inexperience. So they don't want to do that. But if Cespitus is out, Conforto is like 40% owned. Go get him. Yeah. Do it. He also made a diving catch in Centerfield did a nice job.

David Wright is on the 60-day DL now with a neck injury. So if you're owning Reyes, you've got some more time for him to turn things around. He's getting a little better. David Price. He stole base, yeah. David Price, Elbow Soreness. Zander Bogart's jammed his thumb. He's going to have that evaluated.

Oh, the reverse jinx is back. It's alive and well. We said Mookie Betts hadn't stolen any bases, hadn't even attempted one, and he stole two yesterday. And Mitch Morland hit his 11th double guys, OMG. It's a lot of doubles. It is. It's a lot. A couple of slumps.

Michael Franco snapped an 0-22 skid with a home run. And Jose Paraza is one for his last 29. Now he is the number 10 shortstop in points leagues and number 15 in Roto. Ernan Perez, one game away from being shortstop eligible, if that matters. Trey Turner is going to be activated today, but he won't start. Daniel Murphy sat with a leg issue, which is worth watching because Murphy had leg issues last year. Paul Monitor, which is my phone's way of saying, Paul Monitor, says he's not at the point of demoting Byron Buxton. Chris Tillman's going to make a rehab start this weekend, and Heath, there was a graphic in the Seattle-Oakland game yesterday on the A's broadcast that you would have loved.

We all loved it, I'm sure, if we saw it. It was about how the Mariners have the longest postseason drought, and the graphic was, and the broadcaster even did an impression, it was, well, we're waiting. Very nice. Yes, it was a Caddyshack reference about the Barroner's postseason drought, and I thought you'd like that. I do like it a lot.

Yeah, good. Let's do the Thames Watch. Today's Thames Watch. Eric Thames went two for four with a home run, two RBIs, and a strikeout against San Diego's. Louis, he is batting 415 and slugging 981 with eight home runs. I've got a Thames team name I want to try out on you. Okay. Thames Dong, different day.

Not in love with it. No? What about Famous Amos? The Dong remains the Thames? I don't think so. Okay. That was pretty good. I like the second one.

Thanks. Famous Amos, mine. Yeah, thank you. Famous Amos? No. Any reaction to Eric Thames's eighth home run? Yes. Yes.

Jaws were dropped. Yes. I wrote in the trade chart about selling Eric Thames. We had some tweets about should I sell him for this deal or this deal. And we almost universally said yes on Twitter. And then, of course, he hits the home run last night and people are like, we shouldn't sell Eric Thames. I'm still trading him for anything better than like top 10 first base value. Yeah.

Well, I did it a little exercise yesterday, and I don't mean physical exercise, but you know, that's not really my thing. But I did a podcasting exercise, and I looked at my notes, today's April 21st. I looked at my notes, our show notes, from April 20th, 2016, just to see the kinds of starts that guys were getting off. to and what we were talking about. What was topical a year ago today or a year ago yesterday? Bryce Harper was batting 333 with seven home runs, five homers in his last six games, and Mike Trout was batting 220 with one home run. We did a Trout versus Harper argument.

Yeah, so Trout got off to a terrible start. Harper was great, and things obviously changed. Then I had a segment called Reality Check, where Vince Velasquez had a bad start against the Mets coming off his 16 strikeout complete game against San Diego. Actually, Velasquez's first start of the season was against the Mets, and it was also very good. And I don't know if you remember this. Jaime Garcia was in the reality check segment because he had a bad start, you know, kind of bad. Five innings, two runs, four walks, seven strikeouts against the Cubs.

And his previous start was a 13 strikeout, complete game one hitter against Milwaukee. Then we did the standouts. Drew Smiley through eight shutout innings with 11 strikeouts at Boston. Matt Latoz had a 0.49 ERA. was 3-0 at that point. Robbie Ray was in there. Jared Saltelamakia was killing it. He was batting 300 with five home runs.

So just to show you this time last year, what was trending, what we were talking about after a day's worth of baseball games. Weird things are happening. So I got my exercise. I've got some breaking news. Yeah, go ahead. The royals are calling up horse. Hey Bonifacio.

Oh, that is so significant. Get out of here. Thank you for that interjection. It's breaking news. It's breaking. So would you rather have Hanley Ramirez or Eric Thames? I've moved Thames one spot of Head of Ramirez, but I view them as the same. That might be the cutoff, like, ahead of Ramirez, but then you get into a Brayu, Chris Davis,

and that's where it's still tough to pass that up. Now, if you're really selling high on Thames, you may be able to give. him up for one of those and something else, you know? Yeah. I don't know that you have to settle for a Brayu straight up. You would sell Eric Thames for Carlos Martinez? Yes. Yes.

I was trying to think if context would make a difference there. I'm not sure it does. With context, if Billy Hamilton is available for Thames and you're bad at steals and decent on power. You trade him for Hamilton? I don't think so. See, I think I would. Okay. Okay, but I love that.

Thames is like, he's got serious pop, and he's sitting at all fields. I mean, he's killing it right now. I just, I don't want to make it sound like I think he's bad or he's not going to be good this year or anything. But I do think there is a point probably in the next few weeks where there is an adjustment made by the league, and he struggles for a little bit, and then does he figure that adjustment out? Well, just the other side of that is like, what could the ultimate upside be for Thames and what is the ultimate upside of the player you're getting? Right, that's true. And that's why, like, it's one thing to say I rank Jose Abraeu ahead of Thames.

Maybe Abraeu isn't the best example to use, but, you know, certainly with Hamilton, there are clear limitations for Hamilton. I mean, if Thames is in the MVP conversation at the end of the year, at this point, would that surprise anybody? Yes. Yes. It would surprise you? Yeah, it would. Yeah. All right. Well, that has been today's Thames Watch for fantasy baseball today. I'm Adamazer. Now, guys, listen up. You don't want to be the guy that dresses poorly. You need to get yourself the best suit you'll ever buy. You need to look good. It's important. And you need to save hundreds of dollars while doing it. Hundreds. That's with Indochino in our promo code. I'll tell you about that. Indochino.com. I-N-D-O-C-H-I-N-O.com. Use our promo code, F-B-T at checkout to get 50% off the regular price.

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Lance McCuller, I'll give you a couple easy ones. Lance McCullors and James Paxson on the Legitomator. Zero is they are not good. This will not last. 10 is where I'm expecting great production. rest of season. 0 to 10 for McCullors and Paxton. 10.

I will go 7 for McCullors, but I'll go 9 for Paxton. Okay. And it's mostly because of durability concerns for McCullors. I think those are, I don't want to understate those. Gotcha. Irvin Santana, another good start. He did walk three, but six innings, one run against Cleveland. He's got a .64 ERA.

Irvin Santana on the Legitometer. I will go four. And I go that high because I don't know that he'll ever put him... I don't know that he'll ever slump badly enough that you feel like you have to drop him. Would five be I plan on starting him most weeks and I don't think I'll drop him? Sure. I'll say five. Okay.

That's Irvin Santana. Let's do some comps. Irvin Santana or Rich Hill. Would you trade Irvin Santana for Rich Hill? No. I mean, yes. I want Rich Hill. Sorry.

I'm not sure I would do that in a points league. Would you do Irvin Santana for Robbie Ray? I would rather have Ray. Me too. Sorry, I have to phrase it that way. That's fine. It works better. It's easier on my mind than the yes or no.

How about a couple of pitchers who competed against each other last night and are off to good starts, especially the one in Baltimore. Wade Miley, 16% owned, 11 strikeouts last night. Gosh, he's 24Ks in 19 innings. And Scott Feldman for the Reds, Legitometer, 0 to 10 for Miley and Feldman. Well, for Feldman, I'll go like a one. I just don't have any interest in him at all.

Miley, I mean, he now has a two-hit start, this one, and a one-hit start, and two starts where the strike. That's been really high, obviously, the 11 in this one raises an eyebrow. And I was trying to figure out what's different for him. And I noticed a comment from his catcher. Yeah, they're pairing him with Caleb Joseph. Caleb Joseph and Wade Miley have good chemistry. And as Showalter and Joseph and Miley were talking about his fastball command being the key to his success.

But what did you pick up on for Wade Miley? Well, Miley and Joseph and Showalter, they were all talking about how he has the ability to work the fastball inside the count and inside the zone and outside or inner part of the plate, outer part of the plate, move the fastball all around. They acted like that was a big deal. I didn't really know what that meant. But this really caught my attention from Joseph. I feel like Wade has some weapons that he may not have explored in some time. Yeah, I saw that too. I'm sorry.

Like, there's enough of a track record of Wade Miley here. But, well, look at the track record because in 2012 and 2013, he was a legitimate fantasy asset. He was second and anno rookie of the year voting in 2012, had like a mid-3s ERA for the Diamondbacks. The strikeout rate wasn't very good. But then the next year, the strikeout rate was like 8.2 per 9. ERA rose. And then thereafter, he was kind of a nothing. But like, like, he's been a guy that you want to start in good ballparks, in big parks.

Right, Wade Miley. But he's not been a guy that you... He's a streamer. A matchup streamer. Probably. I mean, probably. Look, it's easy to take an optimistic stance when he's only 16% owned. If he was 86% owned, I, you know, I might be addressing this very differently.

Did we get a number on, Miley? Legitometer. Well, what's your number? 2.1. I'll go three. All right. So maybe that puts it into context better. I just, I don't think you should just outright.

ignore this. And zero unfil them for me. Yeah, all right. So, Wade Miley, 16% own, might be worth taking a shot on in a deeper league. Let's do some hitters. Ryan Zimmerman, 71% own another home run. Maybe I was dead wrong about him. I am willing to admit that. At the very least, I know he needs to be owned in more than 71% of leagues. Ryan Zimmerman on the legitometer, Heath.

4.9. Scott. I'll go six. A lot of injuries over the years. Like the last three years, he had six, five or six significant injuries. I listed them all in yesterday's waiver wire. Jake Lamb, top eight third baseman right now, fifth and roto, eighth and points. Jake Lamb, Legitometer.

I'll say six to him also. Six point one. Who would you rather own Zimmerman or Jake Lamb in, you know, just a utility? Lamb. I think I'd rather own Zimmerman. Okay. Jake Lamb's batting 300. He has eight walks to 22 strikeouts.

Same amount of walks and strikeouts as Joey Gallo, who's batting 188. Yeah, and we talk about how bad his strikeouts are all the time. So not an encouraging sign for Lamb. I do like Lamb, but that's a little worrisome. Stephen Sousa, again, I might have been dead wrong about this, Heath. I might have to apologize to you. Stephen Sousa said he put too much pressure on himself,

and now he's just kind of letting it fly. He's 61% own. Legitometer Heath on Stephen Sousa. Seven. I'm not apologizing for anything with Sousa. I'm going to go four. And remember how like a couple weeks ago we were like, wow, he only has two strikeouts.

In his last 34 bats, he has 15 strikeouts. He's a 25% for the year. Somehow managed to get a lot. lot of extra base hits during that stretch, but there are going to be some dark days ahead. All right, Travis Shaw on the Legitometer. I'm always just wary because, like, first 39 games last year, Shaw had a 329 batting average, six homers and 13 doubles. This year, he's got five home runs now and seven doubles in 16 games.

It wasn't Miller Park, Adam. No? It wasn't Miller Park. Wait, yes, it was. Last night was. Yeah, last night was. No, I'm saying last year wasn't. Oh, oh.

We can't compare this to last year. Yeah, he was in that Fenway Park. He wasn't in his good lineup. All right. So Travis Shaw, Legitobeter. 11D. 11D. 11D.

I've never heard that anybody say 11D before. Okay. Shaw for me is a 7. I'm going to say this is how I valued Shaw. I picked up Shaw this morning and I dropped Keon Broxton. Obviously, easy decision. But I didn't use a way. He was dropped probably before this three homer and three homers and three games stretch.

Yeah, yeah. I didn't use a waiver claim on him. I waited for him to be a free agent. I took the gamble that nobody was going to claim him. And it worked. A gamble. Yeah, it worked. Unnecessary gamble.

I feel like people are too protective of their waiver priority. I see people drop really good players in this league. This is the same league as last year. Last year, dumb owners are dropping really good players. But aren't a lot of transactions happening every day? I mean, doesn't waver why. No, we have a 75 transaction limit, so three per week. So I guess different circumstances.

That's fair. Yeah. And finally, I'm kicking myself for leaving Shaw unoccupied during that middle stretch where he went cold because now it's like getting excited about him all over again. Yeah, well, he's a streaky guy. Shortstop, Taylor-Modder for Seattle. I know Segueros coming back, but Legitometer on him and whether or not

Taylor-Moder could be relevant, even with Segara back. Zero. Yeah, relevant when he comes back. It may be in an A.L. only sense. He may have earned, since he can play everywhere, a bigger share of playing time just in a super utility role, but I don't think it'll be consistent enough for mixed leaguers. So I'll say two.

All right, that's Taylor-Modder. I'm going to skip around a little bit. To talk about Austin Hedges, who's 29% owned. Heath, Hedges has three homers and three multi-hit games in his last five games. Should we be looking to add Austin Hedges? This problem is he's caught in this area where he should already be owned in any two-catcher league, and I'm not ready to move him into the one catcher range yet.

So if I had a questionable catcher... Russell Martin. Russell Martin. And I had an available bench spot that I would add Hedge. not ready to drop Martin for hedges yet, though. I hate the idea of owning two catchers. I know you do. One catcher league.

I know you. And you see it in the ownership percentage breakdown at the position. It's like there's a bunch of catchers owned in 80% or more, and then there's a bunch of catchers owned in 30% or last. I'm not saying that it's a strategy I generally subscribe to. Right. But if hedges put everything together, he could be a top seven or eight catcher. I want to see him do something at home.

Hedges has one extra base hit at home so far this year. What's that? Six games? Yeah, yeah, it's 18 at Bats. You don't have to own two catchers at the same time for long. Maybe you just do it for three, four days, a week, whatever, see what happens. Would you drop Yadie or Molina for Austin Hedges? No.

No. Okay. Let's see. Other things from yesterday. Aeronola. Arnola, you know, got 450 ERA, 6.000. walks, 15 strikeouts, just hasn't been great this year. What are we thinking?

It was disappointing. I've not changed my opinion at all on them. Yeah, jury's still out. The walks were the most disappointing part because he had a combined two in his first two starts and it's like, oh, he's back. But then, yeah, I need to see more. I wonder because Nola is somebody that lives on the edge of the strike zone and gets so many called strikes, if he is a little bit more susceptible to the umpire behind the plate on a given night.

Good chance. Maybe. So with these next three pitchers, tell me if you think they are long-term plays or just streamers. Matt Shoemaker, Daniel Norris, Patrick Corbyn. Shoemaker is the best still, and he's the most owned. Back-to-back, seven strikeout efforts. I'm still not sure how he's going to fare in terms of strikeouts, and that'll make the difference whether or not he's streamable or,

just somebody you start even in the one-star weeks. Norris, I think, has a lot of proving to do. And Corbin, the only reason I'm really interested in him right now is the relief pitcher eligibility. He does have a pretty good two-star week coming up. So maybe you stream them in that sense, but I'm not really interested in him beyond that. All right. And in deeper leagues, would you be interested in picking any of these guys up in a 14-team

league or deeper. Clayton Richard, R. A. Dickey, Andrew Cashner, Erasmo Ramirez. Clayton Richard, R.A. Dickey, Cashner, Ramirez, Heath. You know, Cashner's not been good, but I would probably have the most interest in him just because we've seen in the past that he can be. So in a 14 or a 16 team league, I wouldn't pick him up and start him right away, but I might pick him up and just hold him for a start or two and see if he shows signs of improving. I have really failing the listeners here. not going to have as much time for the mailbag as we thought. So, I feel bad.

I mean, you know, you could put it another way. Like, unless somebody's getting their own direct question answered, like, do people really want to listen to other people's questions get answered that much? Well, I usually pick questions that I feel could help a lot of people. All right. We're just eating at the time more now. Sorry. Well, you know, like I said, I like to listen.

Do we talk some more about Jorge Bonafacio? I actually got a, I just got a tweet from Chris. Not sure if this is worth mentioning on the podcast. pod and he, not a tweet, I am from Chris, and he linked to a tweet about Jorge Bonifacio being called up. Yeah, I could just give you three sentences from Royals review. He's a 23-year-old. It was hitting 304, 385-587 for Omaha last year as a 22-year-old in AAA. He had an 800 OPS.

He's been a top prospect before. He's been a prospect for so long because it started like seven. More than three sentences. Would you rather have Jorge Bonafacio or Trey Mancini? Mancini. Not a doubt What is Bonifacio done to deserve? Not the Royals.

Anything. He plays with the Royals. Okay. Yeah, that's Mancini. Okay. The dropometer, zero to ten. Ten is a must drop right now. Jose Batista.

One. Yeah, one. Alex Cobb, 68% owned. Four. On the most drop list. I think it's a little premature, but you guys say four? Which means I'm probably not dropping him. Right.

He's just kind of on the fringes. Joe Musgrove, 50%. Five. Seven. Manuel Margo. Three for 25 in his last seven games with no extra base hits. 4.9. Like a three and a half, a little less than Cobb, but it's not unthinkable.

Javier Baez. I would give that like Probably like a four I think Bias is a tough one Because of Scots Do I drop them Mindset Like I

If we were totally talking about Javier Baez's playing time and performance I might put him at like an 8 But he's getting picked back up Probably almost immediately Yeah but it's all It's all hype It's like the guy hasn't hit

Oh I know He has not hit at all Did you see that no look tag though? I saw the NOAA tag. I don't know. Bay is a 76% owned. You know what? Yeah, 4 is underdoing it.

I'm actually going to give him like a 7 on the drop of meter because I don't really care if somebody picks him up. And I'm not even sure it's that obvious that he will. I mean, the 76% ownership, if somebody happens to know that, maybe they do. But the idea is if it's a fringy player to begin with and he's not producing. Nobody besides us viewed him as a fringy player. He was drafted like the 11th or 12 round. Yeah, well, we were saying, you especially were saying that Javier Baez was getting drafted way too early. Would you drop Paraza?

No. Parazza. Everybody thought he was better than Paraza before the season except for us. So I think everybody's going to still try. Maybe I'm wrong. But they're all wrong for thinking that. I'm sorry to say. Yeah, they are.

But I was just talking about the perception of why. I think you get picked up. I'll say he's a six. All right. And let's do team name Tuesday on a Friday and then some two-star pitchers for you. Just a few team name Tuesdays on a Friday. This is from Vince. I have a couple of rap themes.

From Vince, Dr. Trey. Okay. He needs a doctor right now. And from Chris, ain't nothing but an E-Thames, baby. I don't think I know that reference. It nothing but a G-thing, baby. nothing but an E-Thames baby. We got one, Shaw Thames Redemption?

No, no. I think Shaw-Shank Redemption is better than that. Yeah, I agree. The only thing is they're both getting their redemption. I'm noticing, and I may have been guilty of this in the past, but cramming too many names into a team name just seems to drag it down. It has to sound good above all else. Agreed.

And last one, we have Better Call Solarte. Tremend. I think better call Paul if you're a Goldschmidt owner would be better. Fine. It's from Dan, and I think it's tremendous. Great episode last night. All right, let's take a look at two-star pitchers for the upcoming scoring period for already. Fantasy Week 4.

Any favorites that jump out of you that are available? There are a lot this week after there were very few last week. I usually use 80% as the cutoff of ones who are worth mentioning. And obviously, they may not be owned in your league, but a lot of people, people, they will be unowned. And the top two, I think, are Vargas, who actually has great matchups against the white socks and the twins. So I think it's worth starting anywhere, to kind of start he's off to, even if I have concerns

in the long run. And then Francisco Liriano gets the Angels and the Rays. If you can pick up either, I'd prioritize Liriano, because I think he should probably be owned anyway. But Vargas has even better matchups. And then you go further down. I mean, Gazellman, Atlanta, and then at Washington. So only one good match of us, but I think he needs to be owned anyway.

I mentioned Patrick Corbyn, one of his two matches against San Diego. So he's a decent option, and he's 42% owned. Way and Chen, he's at Philadelphia, and then against Pittsburgh, he's only 24% owned. Particularly in a points league where strikeouts aren't a big deal, I think he's a good choice. And then even Wade Miley just for the fact that one of his two matchups is against the race who strikeout a ton might be able to build off that 11 strikeout performance

and he's like you said earlier 16% owned. What about Clayton Richard at Arizona at San Francisco? Maybe in a points league but even when he's good he has a high whip like even yesterday he gave up nine hits. It's just the extreme ground baller unless you're Dallas Kichel that's always going to be an affliction.

for them. Wow, deep sleeper, Matt Cain, Dodgers and Padres at home. No. I think I picked him up in a league. Really? I can't remember what league it was. You know, he's throwing two miles per hour less than he did the previous two years when he had an ERA near six.

Jason Vargas and Matt Cain, the new thing is to throw slow. Kane's going to get just obliterated. How about, not necessarily next week, but eventually. Miguel Gonzalez, Kansas City and at Detroit. No, with the Royals calling up Bonifacio. I don't think that's quite as good a match-up. This isn't bad. I like Gonzalez.

I may even, he's kind of on equal terms with Wade Miley in terms of sleepability for this week. We got. Do you like that? Yeah, like that. I've never said that before. It's been like a levity. Chad, cool. Cubs at home at Miami.

Remember, he was terrible against the Cubs last year. Not cool, dude. Yeah, I don't think I'd start them. Yeah, it's tough. I'm even hesitant about Gazellman with Atlanta and then at Washington. I'm telling you, man, everywhere I'm seeing Gazellman dropped, that is an immediate ad. Same here, but I'm just a little nervous about it. Jordan Zimmerman is 70% owned.

I'm not Seattle and the White Sox. I just can't. I can't do it. Joe Ross has a start at Colorado and home against the Mets. You got to sit, Joe Ross? I don't think you have to, but. He is less than 80% owned. I didn't mention him as a sleeper for that reason.

At Colorado, it's always very dangerous. And then last one I want to talk about, I think you start him as a relief pitcher. But do you start Luis Severino at Boston and home against Baltimore? Yes. Yep. Okay. Okay.

I think we're done here. Steven Strasberg at Colorado and home against the Mets, start or sit. Start. Yes. All right. Let's read some emails. Okay, it's from Mark. Mark says, hey, Splinter, Yoda, and Chief.

Who's Chief? Who's Master Chief? I don't know. But Master Splinter, Master Yoda. They are, you know, they teach the way of whatever. The way. Oh, Master Chief is from Halo. From Halo.

Okay. Please help me understand the. Rizzo eligibility dilemma. If this were football and Julio Jones lined up on the line for a play, does he start accruing tight end eligibility? If a wide receiver receives a lateral, which counts as a rush, he's not a running back for that game. Why is eligibility for an entire game determined on one play? If an official game counts as five innings, why can't we make that the cutoff for eligibility? Eligibility works completely differently in football. It works completely differently in basketball. Like, baseball is the one sport where it's clear what position

the player is playing. And you get to change positions. Like football, it's clear. It's just nobody's changing positions. Right, okay. Fair enough, unless you're Thai Montgomery. But, yeah. But there is a point.

And the guy that you were going back and forth with on Twitter, Scott, said, like, as the commissioner, just don't let your league make Rizzo a second basement. But where do you open that door and, like, where do you draw the line? Yeah, that's a good question. I mean, if I remember one year,

and there's probably no more reason example than this, but some blowout. The White Sox stuck your main die at shortstop for an inning. And, you know, there are some leagues out there with one game eligibility rules. Oh, I'm not going to allow your main die to be shortstop eligible because that was clearly just a circus maneuver, blah, blah, blah.

Like, you know... There's a point there. If MLB says he played that position, he played that position, and it should count to whatever rules your league sets up. Yeah, all right. And you know what? You as the commissioner, you can make your own decisions about it.

By the way, just got an email seven minutes ago. One of my trade offers was rejected. So there you go. I offered Francisco Liriano for Kyle Hendricks, and it got rejected. You were so ridiculous. You know what? We were talked about it yesterday. People were panicking about Kyle Hendricks.

I gave it a shot. Didn't work. Brian Kennedy, I think I bought low on Carlos Correa. 10 team points league. I traded Dallas Kikel and Gene Seguera for Carlos Correa and Rich Hill. I hate it.

No, I'd give it a B-minus. It's a win, but not a big win. Yeah, he comes out ahead. I agree with Heath. Like, it's not it's not a classic by-low case because I think you've bought

kind of even. Maybe sold high a little with Kichel. This is from Evan. Evan just wants to vent about how he dropped Mitch Hanigar for Delano to Shields before the season started. We've all been there, my man. We've all been there. In fact, last year I was looking at some transactions from last year.

I was smart enough to pick up Rich Hill early in the season last year in our auction Roto League. And then I was dumb enough to drop him like two weeks later. And Scott picked him up and had him for the rest of the season. Yeah, I did that to you in R.A. Dickie Sigh Young the season. You did? Wow, I got to stop dropping pitchers. Grade the trade from Matt and Spokane. Points. Keeper League. Give up Miguel Sineau. Get Jose Abrae.

I like it. It's C plus. B minus. C. All right. This is from Chris in Marathon, New York. Hey, Mark, James, and Luke. Well, they're all books of the Bible. I don't know if there's some other angle. Maybe that is what it is. Okay. Well, we're going to say Bible. Pick three outfielders in a head-to-head categories league.

Margot, Piscotti, Duval, Bautista, Sousa, Reddick, Fowler. Who can we eliminate for the sake of the listeners? Who can we eliminate? Margot. Well, I know who the three are. They're Piscotti, Duval, Batista. All right, I wanted to read it again for the listeners, but fine. Okay, so I'm eliminating in this order.

worst to best Reddick Sousa Margo and Fowler I would rather have Fowler than Duvall Okay All right

Piscati and Bautista are the ones you're keeping Chris And then Scott says Duval He says Fowler Steve S Dear Julian Ricky and Bubbles Trailer Park boys Should I drop Javier Baez

For Jed Jerko In a 12-team OPS Roto League Yes Nah, probably. Like if you need to use them now, maybe you hold on to bias for upside if it's just a bench spot. Tyler from Minneapolis is in a 14-team points league with corner infield and middle infield and only two bench spots. Is Joanne Moncada only two bench spots worth holding on to as a late-season golden ticket? Not with two bench spots, no, it's two.

It's too hard to predict. Okay. from Sean 15 team roto, 33-man roster, whoo, OBP League instead of batting average. What do the rest of season rankings look like for Brandon Moss, Curtis Granderson, and Robbie Grossman? Should I drop any of them, Moss, Granderson, and Grossman for Jorge Solair? I would lean toward dropping Grossman for Salair.

Yep. Really? I thought you might say Moss for Soler. I mean, Moss and Solair are the two worst OBP guys of these four. And I mean, Grossman was a pretty good OBP guy last year, too. So it's not... Moss would probably be my second least favorite of the four. Yes, it's just how much do you need home runs? Because that's basically all he's going to provide,

assuming he gets hot at some point. Evan wants to know. Evan from St. Louis wants to know what you expect from J.D. Martinez rest of season. Heath Cummings. I expect J.D. Martinez to be fairly similar to what J.D. Martinez has been over the last couple of years, so I think he'll be a top 15 outfielder from the time he returns until the end of the season. And do you think that we should worry about the foot injury recurring for J.D. Martinez, or are we just done with that? It's a factor.

Yeah, it's the kind of injury that you think it's gone and then it comes back. So if, you know, I think the ideal approach to J.D. Martinez is you hope he comes back. You hope he gets to a hot start. And then you hope you sell them for face value just so you can kind of reach yourself with that risk. Okay. Two more real quick. Grade the trade from Greg, 12-team points league. Give up Cinderguard and Travis Shaw.

Cindergarde and Shaw get Scherzer. F. Can't trade Travis Shaw. In all seriousness. I would say it's a C. Yes. Yeah, Shaw is just enough, I think, upgrading Cinderguard to Scherzerzor. That makes sense.

And from Sean, grade the trade in a six-by-six roto league. Give up Keras Davis and Felix Hernandez. Krasd Davis and Felix Hernandez get Kershaw. That is an A. Yeah, that's almost an A-plus. No, that's a solid-A. I'd give it an A-plus. Thank you all for your emails.

Thank you all for listening. Have yourselves a great weekend. And I have run out of things to say, believe it or not. Goodbye, everyone. Get us out of here before you ruin it.