Fantasy Baseball Today - 04/24: Worryometer, Weaver, Wheeler (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 24, 2019

Welcome to Worryomter Wednesday which of course kicks off with a Chris Sale discussion. Was yesterday's start encouraging or discouraging? Who are we willing to trade for him? We also discuss yesterday's standouts including Zack Wheeler (6:15), Luke Weaver (9:21) and Pablo Lopez (13:19) ... News and notes (16:30) with our thoughts on Carlos Martinez's role and Joey Gallo's batting average. Plus we've got "Hey, Real Quick" (22:55) as we compare Paul DeJong vs. Corey Seager, Jose Quintana vs. Yu Darvish, Sonny Gray vs. Domingo German and more ... Worryometer Wednesday! We've got Andrew Benintendi, Jose Ramirez, Joey Votto and Nick Castellanos (31:00) followed by Manny Machado, Yasiel Puig, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Nola (38:30). Then some bullpen updates (45:05), emails (49:00) about Luis Castillo and Jesse Winker among others and a look at today's matchups at the end of the show ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott, Heath, and Chris. Get worried, everybody. It is Wednesday. You're obligated to be worried.

It's Worryometer Wednesday. What a way to start the show. Adam Azer with Chris Towers and Heath Cummings. Kreeh, are you guys worried? How you feeling today? Nope. Not worried about anything. I mean, I've always got just a general air of anxiety about me, but, you know, no more than usual. Okay, okay, good.

Well, we have Chris Sale, obviously, to talk about. Jose Ramirez is going to be on the Wauriometer. I actually crowdsourced a little bit for the Wariometer Day. I said, who are you worried about? Who do you want to hear about? And the people want to hear about Nick Castiano's is off to a terrible start. Mani Machado, who I didn't even realize wasn't really doing that much since the first week or so of the season.

Eloi Jimenez batting just 231, so we're going to talk about those guys. We've got some wacky stats from yesterday. One of my favorite stats, the Tigers have won 12 games, and Shane Green has saved 11 of them. In fact, yesterday, the first game in the double-heder that they won against the Red Sox, I swept the double-header. That was the only game all season that Tigers have won without Shane Green recording a save. I think we should start with Chris Sale, right? Every time he pitches, we start to show.

Chris Sale, right? Okay. Here's a tweet of the day from Red Sox beat reporter Ian Brown at Ian M. Brown. Brown with an E at the end. This was sales third start this season, allowing six 100 plus mile per hour batted balls. He had one such outing all of last year, and it was his first playoff start of 2018. Thanks again to at Slangs on Sports for the Speedy Research. So like last time out against the Yankee.

We've got some good and some bad for Chris Sale, who struck out 10 tigers in five innings with two earn runs in two walks. Encourage or discouraged right now with Chris Sale. Yeah. I think I'm relative to the top line numbers, I thought this was a discouraging start. Because the top line numbers make it look like he pitched pretty well. and I don't really think that he did but I'm not any more discouraged about him than I have been I moved him after the first start of the season down to I think SP9

I have not had reason to move him yet I do not plan on moving him after this start he's not back yet I don't know that this start was necessarily a step towards being back other than he did set a season high for swinging strikes, he did set a season high for strikeouts, those are positives. His command, it seems like, is still a bit of a problem

because he is getting lit up when batterers put a bat on the baseball. But I also feel slightly more confident that Chris Sails not going to be a total disaster this season. So if I have to lean one direction, I would lean towards encouraged and not discouraged, but it's really a bit of both. Well, Heath, you were pretty active in putting out offers for Chris Sale a few starts to go. Did any of them go through, first of all?

And are you still- Nobody accepted my offers. I really wish that we had worked out a deal with you. That was the one that got away. Yeah, that was Gary Sanchez and- Max-Free. Max-Free's been better than Chris Sale. I would still do that deal.

Gary Sanchez is coming back from the D-L today. I would get sale and who? Just sale. No, I get sale. You have sale. I get sale. You get Gary Sanchez and Max Freed. Okay, sorry.

I have Gary Sanchez in several leagues. Not in that league. Okay. Sale for Sanchez and Freed. See, I'm encouraged by sale. I think getting better. And the velocity wasn't as good as it was against the Yankees and he was throwing 97, 98. But I still think if he's throwing 92 to 94, I still think that's plenty of velocity for him to

succeed. And I don't know if you guys are finding this, but I am struggling a little bit with strikeouts in categories in Roto. So, you know, even if he gives you like a high 3 ZRA this year. If he gives you worse than that, then we got a problem. But if he's a 370 R.A, I'm just throwing that number out. I think all the strikeouts are going to be really helpful. And I do have faith that he's going to strike guys out. Yeah, he could be Robbie Ray. Yeah, he'll be better than Robbie Ray. I don't think he'll have a bad whip. He's not going to walk a ton of guys. Like, he's, Robbie Ray is, is garbage, so.

What do you talk? Robbie Ray hasn't had an ERA above four since 2016. That kid, what did he have last year? 393. Okay, he's, he's garbage. Never pitch a six of six. Okay, that's our Chris Sale discussion. Some things to promote NFL drafts coming up on Thursday.

Heath, you're going to be on the podcast on Friday? Yeah. Okay, good. We're going to have a podcast, Fantasy Football, today. Friday to talk about the first round, then another one on Monday to talk about the rest of the draft. But you can watch our draft coverage on CBS Sports HQ. It's free. It's always streaming.

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It's the Stanley Cup playoffs. It's baseball. It's everything you grew up watching sports coverage like that. You know, it's throwback sports coverage. It's awesome. CBS Sports H.Q. Check it out. And we have so many podcasts, and we're on Spotify, and we're on Stitcher, and we're all over the place.

So please check out our podcast page, CBSports.com slash podcasts. Get a full list and ways to subscribe and follow us on Spotify. It would be very helpful for us. Some Tuesday standouts. It's not all about the Worryometer. And we will talk about the news and notes, Carlos Carrasco. We'll have an MRI on his knee. Got some news on Carlos Martinez.

We'll get to that. Yeah, so I'll just say Zach Wheeler, Tuesday standout, seven scoreless innings, 11 strikeouts against the Phillies. He also homered and doubled. And numbers still don't look great, 485 ERA, but nice to see no walks in this start. Talk to me about Zach Wheeler, guys. You know, last four months of the season, he was 10 and 3 with a 252 ERA, a 0.99 whip just under a strikeout per inning. And last year, Wheeler had the third highest soft contact rate in baseball, behind. I'm Jacob de Grom and Max Scherzer.

What do you think about him right now? He does not currently have the third highest soft contact rate. He has a pretty bad one right now, but I don't really... It's too early to really worry too much about that. I think he's a mid-3ZRA guy, and I think he will continue to be that. He has actually thrown harder this year than we've ever seen him. He's got... I think the highest velocity on his...

his slider of any pitcher this year, including Jacob de Grom and Noah Cindergarde. I think he's good. I don't think he's an ace. He weirdly doesn't get as many swinging strikes as you would expect for someone with his stuff, and especially with his strikeout rate. But I think he's pretty good. The zero walks was big because he's really struggled with that on a couple of starts this year. And that's the one thing that can just completely derail him.

he's got a little bit of right-handed Robbie Ray in him when things go bad. This is Zach Wheeler we're talking about. So I have Zach Wheeler. You have Chris Wheeler. I say, you give me Chris Sale. I'll give you Zach Wheeler. What do you do? What do you click?

Accept or reject. I'm keeping Chris Sale. Well, Heath and I went through his rankings yesterday. I think we both determined where the point is where we would not trade Chris Sale. Well, no, you did. I would trade all those guys for Chris Sale. Okay. Luis Castillo, you would trade for Chris.

Yes. So for me, it was right around number, it was number 24 in Heath's, which is Tyler Glassnow, starting pitcher rankings. I would not be able to give up Tyler Glass now for Chris Sale right now. That means you wouldn't be able to give up James and Tyone or Shane Bieber or Jose Burrios or Luis Castile. Yeah. Okay. Okay. So big difference there in how you see Chris Sale, I mean, to me.

It's not that I think he's worse than them. I just, you're scared. Yeah. I'm paralyzed with Chris Sale. I would rather not do anything with him. I understand. I understand. But the fact that the velocity has been better than it was in that start,

I was in Arizona maybe, where he was sick. Oakland. Oakland? Okay. Yeah. But to be clear, you wouldn't take Luis Castillo for Christale either. You're just going to do nothing. Yeah, probably.

Who stood out to you guys? For me, it was definitely Luke Weaver. Another very good start for him. a lot of strikeouts. And if you look at his peripherals from that 2017 season or half season with the Cardinals, this looks very much like the same picture he was then and not the picture he was in 2018. The walks are back down, the strikeouts are back up. He's got a 27% K percentage in 2017.

It was 28.6. He's got a 5% walk rate. In 2017, it was 6.8. He's got really peripherals that make it look like he. his 333 ERA is a little bit unlucky. I don't know that that's necessarily true, but if he can continue to pitch with this type of control, while also it seems like,

and I'm going to check the numbers on this before I actually say it, but Arizona has this thing where they don't really want pitchers throwing the ball in the strike zone very much. And when I talked about him earlier this year, I said he could be a little bit like Zach Grinky, because if you have really good control and don't walk anybody, but you also don't throw that many strikes, that can be a pretty good combination.

He's at 42% in the zone. He was 47% in 2017 when he had a 2.5 walk per 9. He's at 42% and walking two batters per 9. That's very good. All right, this is Luke Weaver. He's 78% owned. And one problem if you pick up Luke Weaver is he's probably going to be at Colorado next week. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't pick him up.

Just be aware of it. Stallions are Weaver. I would put Weaver ahead of Trevor Richards behind Pablo Lopez and Caleb Smith. I think I have him just ahead of all the stallions. No, I have him behind Trevor Richards and Caleb Smith ahead of Pablo Lopez. How about Trevor Williams or Luke Weaver? I've got to move Trevor Williams up. Yeah, it's time, right?

I just don't believe he's good. It's been almost a year now. He's a quality start basically every time he takes the mound. Yes, technically correct. But he had a 428 Sierra in 2016, a 463 Sierra in 2017, 468 in 2018, and a 462 in 2019. I just, I'm sorry. Like, I will be, if I have to continue to be wrong about Trevor Williams,

I will continue to be wrong and I'll just have to live with that because it's consistent with the way I view the sport. You don't get any points for FIPP, Chris. That's true. You get points for runs allowed. And eventually, I have to, and I know you believe this and you agree with me

95% and you're just focusing on the 5% to be a troll, but I just don't think he's good. And the results are what they are, but we're not talking about what's happened. We're talking about what's likely to happen in the future. And what we've got with him is a well below average strikeout rate. Most of his career, average-ish control,

it's been much better this season, but I don't necessarily see a big reason to think he's taken a big step forward. And he doesn't get a lot of ground balls. He doesn't really do any of the things that we want starting pitchers to do at a much better than average rate. and so. Trevor Williams. If Trevor Williams is just going to buck all

all trends in Major League Baseball for the rest of time, and I'll look like an idiot, I'll live with that. He does get a lot of soft content. And he consistently has done that for four years in a row. Sure, but...

So what's their answer? Weaver or Williams? Weaver. Yeah, easily. Easily, okay. Chris, give me a standout and then we'll do some news and notes. I mean, it has to be Pablo Lopez.

Pablo C2. I think he. He's a great nickname. Apparently his nickname in the Marlins Clubhouse at least is Wikipedia. I call him Pablo. Martine Prado, because he's very smart. Speaks four languages. I think, I think I said this before the season.

I think Pablo Lopez might just be the best of this group of Marlins pitchers. He has a 4444-4-1 ERA right now. That's not great, but 281 FIP, Sierra in the 3-4-5 range. above average strikeout rate. He's shown the ability to be a good control pitcher in the minors, and that's what he's doing right now. And he gets ground balls. He does everything that I want from a starting pitcher.

And I think he might have three plus-ish pitches. I think he's really good. My only concern with him, and I had left him outside of my top 50, because the results had been bad for the most part before this start. And what it seemed like, like was happening was he got to the fifth inning and things just went haywire. And it kind of looked like a lot of that was bad luck.

If you looked at the peripherals, it looked like it was bad luck. But it also could have just been that he didn't have enough to get through five or six innings. This was an encouraging start. I'd like to see him get through the sixth again in a start. But no, he's very encouraging. And I think it's a three horse race for the best stallion. Yeah, and Pablo Lopez is only 32%.

sent on, so you might not be able to pick up Luke Weaver, but you can pick up Pablo Lopez in most leagues. I would also just caution that he pitched against Cleveland last night, and even with Francisco Lindor, right now they have a terrible lineup. But yeah, it's good

stuff and good ratios, but this was Lopez's first start of more than five and a third. He'll be at Philadelphia, I believe, this weekend to finish up his two-start week. Those are some standouts for you. We talked about Zach Wheeler, Luke Weaver. Trevor Williams and the Stallions and Pablo Lopez is one of the stallions. Here's your fun fact of the day.

Follow up from an email from yesterday. Remember Robert and Fullerton, California, his email about how only the Yankees should wear pinstripes was a beautiful, brilliant email. And he just told me this morning or last night it was, why the Mets wear pinstripes. Would you believe it the Mets wear pinstripes to pay homage basically to the Yankees? They have elements. What? That's kind of. Like, you're kind of leaving out the rest of the story.

What's the rest of the story? They have a pinstripes. Their whole aesthetic pays homage to the history of New York. I wasn't leaving it out. Orange for the Giants. You interrupted me. Orange for the Giants, blue for the Dodgers. And we got another email.

I don't know if you saw it, but the Cubs were the first team to wear pinstripes. I saw it. I deleted it. I deleted it out of here. Immediately. All right, news of notes. Carlos is correct. Carlos is correct.

Me or Chris? The Yankees. Oh, all right. Carlos Carrasso left with a knee injury. Blake's, we're having an MRI. They don't think it's serious, but we'll see. This is the last thing. They could not afford to lose Carlos Carrasco.

Blake Snell's going to start today. He's coming off the D.L. He's going to face the Royals. Matt Kemp is on the injured list, and he had started seven straight games for the Reds. So he's been awful. I don't know. Good news for who. Nick Senzel.

I would prefer that he not. start anymore. Well, you're not going to start now. He's on the IL with a broken rib. It's Matt Kemp. Toronto minor leagueer Bo Bichette. He doesn't be healthy. Will you guys be quiet? Bob Bichet broke his hand.

So there's that. And Hesus Lazzardo threw from 75 feet. Should we be stashing Hesus Lazzardo? You can talk now. I am stashing Hesus Lazzardo in three different leagues. And yes, I think you should. I think he could be a top 25 starting pitcher for the portion of the year that he gets to pitch this season. And given he's probably not going to be back for another month, I would guess, in the majors,

he's not going to have any any concerns once he gets up there, because that'll be right around the end of May. That's four months left in the season. There's no reason he shouldn't be able to just go full tilt for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. A's starting pitcher, Jesus Lazardo. You say Kikuchi, you do not want to start him on Friday. He's going to make one of his short starts. And then Justice Sheffield is going to be piggybacking.

Sheffield being called up for that. I don't think you have to pick him up or anything, but that's why he's being called up. Clint Frazier sat with an ankle injury. Carlos Martinez, when he comes back, will be a relief pitcher. Jordan Hicks did give up a home run yesterday, but got a save and has been pretty good this year. So do you think Carlos Martinez can be the closer, or should we just give up on Carmart? I would hang on to him for another week or so, and I've got him in a bunch of leagues. If Jordan Hicks struggles over the next week or so, then yeah, Carlos Martinez could be worth stashing.

But I think in all likelihood you're probably just going to drop him because it would require Jordan Hicks losing the job, I think. I'm only hanging on to him in Categories League. Okay, that's Carlos Martinez. Meanwhile, Harrison Bader is back for the Cardinals and Tyler O'Neill is on a rehab assignment. I'm interested to see what happens because Jose Martinez has not stopped hitting since getting regular playing time. Daniel Murphy was not activated from the IL, but that's coming up. Brandon Nimmo left with a left oblique twinge. He says he could play today.

Addison Russell can return for the Cubs on May 3rd. I don't know who he would replace or if he's going to play, but he's eligible to return Addison Russell on May 3rd. He could replace Ben Zobrist, who has 70 plate appearances and zero extra base hits this year. That's amazing. Javier Baez hit the L2 button and juke's David Fibre. freeze, it was great. It was great, right? It was, it should have been an out.

Why? You thought so? You got to stay at the base pads. Yeah, he went out of the base paths. Did he? I think, I think it was good. I think he was good. I mean, you're allowed three feet, but he went out. Come on. I don't know. Watch it again. I think you're wrong. Should have been out. Just a weird note on Brandon Belt. Brandon Belt, we haven't talked about him. He's 35% owned. He has a 902 OPS versus Ritees. And obviously he's always going to be better against righties and lefties, but the Giants have faced by far. They've had the most at bats against lefties this year.

So in that sense, Belth has been unlucky. I think he's actually a pretty good player in points leagues and might be able to help you at first base. So take a look at Brandon Belt. I would imagine he'll... The Giants are going to get a lot of abats against lefties. It happens to all the NLS teams now, two straight years, 2017 and 18. But not this many.

He's had basically as many at bats against lefties as righties. Joey Gallo's hitting 300. My eyes popped out of my head when I saw that. 371 Babbup And Well yeah But do you think Maybe he could be a 240 hitter this year

Yeah I think I mean based on what he's doing Right now his batted ball profile He probably should be hitting You know close to 280 There's not that much luck involved in this I don't think that'll continue But he is hitting fewer fly balls

And for most players That's a bad thing But in his case He has such absurd raw power that sacrificing a few fly balls for batted balls that might be able to turn into hits isn't a bad thing. And he actually, for baseball savon, he has a 316 expected bat batting average. So actually he's been unlucky.

Oh, how about that? Joey Gallo hitting 300. Jesus Aguilar has sat two straight games and three of the last five with Eric Thames and yesmani Grundaul even last night playing first base. So if this continues, then yeah, you can drop Aguilar. I think we want to preach a little patience there. Alberto Monasey scored from second base on a wild pitch. He's so fast.

And Malick Smith has been struggling this year. He's batting lower in the order. He's batting eighth or ninth. He does have eight steals. But he homered yesterday, sort of. He basically took Austin Hedges fly ball, hit it with his glove, and knocked it over the center field ball,

and gave Austin Hedges a home run. So thank you, Malick Smith, for nothing. Quick break on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, we got some hey real quick from me. Hey real quick from the listeners at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. And Warrior Omitor Wednesday. We'll begin. We'll be right back.

Hey real quick, fellas. Here we go. Paul DeYoung or Corey Seeger? Corey Seeger. This is one that I have struggled with because they are back to back now in my rankings. And I want to continue moving DeYoung up. And I think I've just reached the point to where I can't. I do still have Seeger ranked higher.

DeYoung's going to cool off. A lot. Probably considerably. I still think that there's a decent chance. He's going to be a 300 hitter this year. He hit 285 as a rookie. He had a really bad Babbup season last year. Well, hold on.

We can't just say that 2017 he hit 285. And then right off last year as a bad Babbup season. He had a much better Babbup season. season in 2017 relative to league average. Then he had a bad one in 2018. He has having a good one now. Right, but we don't have enough plate appearances to say what his true talent level is there. Okay, so what do you think it is?

I think he's probably like a 260 hitter. Yeah, I think he's going to be, I mean, he's not going to be a 260 hitter this year. He'd have to hit like 240 the rest of the year. Like he did last year? Yeah, you got really unlucky. Paul Young's awesome. It's very, very close. I don't know why Chris is poo-pooing him.

I think he's good. I just don't think he's a high average hitter. I think he's a guy who will hit for power with a not terrible average, but he's not going to get on base a lot. He's definitely not going to keep scoring runs at this pace. No, he's not going to keep scoring runs at this pace. He's on pace for 148 runs. I do you think he's probably going to score 100 runs this year.

Right, but that's... And he's probably going to drive in more runs. He only needs 80 more runs to get to 100, so it's... It's more about what he's likely to do in the next hundred. I would think he's going to have more runs plus RBI than Corey Seeger. Yeah, I don't know. The other element here is that Seeger's not really having such a hot start. Only two home runs, 276 batting average.

So let's get it going. All right. Hey, real quick, Cubs rotation. Jose Cantana. Jose Cantana, three straight starts of seven innings and good results. Let's put it that way. Jose Cantana are you Darvish? Hey, real quick.

Oh, yeah, I don't know. I have you Darvish ranked higher. I was thinking Chris would just say something that time, and he didn't. He just giggled. I don't think we have any reason to have a great bit of certainty on either of these starting pitchers. The ceiling is still higher for you, Darvish. Kentana has been fantastic at the last three, though. I mean, he's just been flat out better.

in the five appearances that both have made. U-Darvish has just been actively not good. So it's more of a question for me. Like if Jose Cantana pitches the way he did last year and U-Darvish doesn't improve, Kintana's going to be better. So it's a question of how much more you think U-Darvish is going to improve,

how much he can fix these issues. And I'm uncertain about that. I think I might go Kintana. Okay, Katana. ESPN had an article on him today. A lot of it was like, he's better mentally. He's using his fielders more. You know, he's in a better place.

But some of it was also, he's throwing his change-up more, which is probably something we care more about. Finally, hey, real quick, former Yankee versus current Yankee, Sunny Gray, or Domingo Herman? Domingo Hermon. Yes, please. I think I'll go

I think both are good I think I'll go I think I'll go Armand just mostly because of the team around him he's gonna win more games than Sunny Gray but I think they're gonna be pretty Does he currently have more talent to run him than Zaharan? No he absolutely does not

No Talent no not The Yankees have some of the current The current Yankees lineup has performed significantly better than the Reds whether they will moving forward I think I'll still take the Yankees. The current Yankees lineup is only not had Aaron

Judge for like four games or something or whatever it is, not even. So, at two games, I think. Three. Right, but like Luke Void has performed better than anyone in the Reds lineup. That's true. I mean, is Yankee Man.

I think it's true. All right, so wait, we're taking Armand here over Gray? Oh, 800th has been better. I'll take Herman. Okay. Yeah, Gray's 79% on. I mean, Armand is 93% own. He's got a two-star week.

He's, yeah, he's off to a really nice start. Doesn't pitch super deep into games, but he did go six and two-thirds. Yesterday was his first start with more than 89 pitches thrown. They're a little cautious with him. Gray, though, I mean, yeah, I tweeted last night. Move over Greg Bird, Sunny Gray is my worst call. And that was before he gave up four runs, three earned. He was absolutely cruising against Atlanta.

But he's really getting a lot of strikeouts. You can acknowledge how wrong you. were about him and jinx him in the same that's really, you're talented. Yeah, it's pretty clear that the Yankees approach to pitching just didn't work for him. He's succeeding with his

slider because of what he said after was it, after his first start or was it in spring training? No, it was his spring training? The Yankees wanted him to throw sliders for strikes the way Masahira Tanaka does and he's just not that kind of pitcher. He's throwing it for swings and misses now

and it's working. He looks like the guy he used to be in Oakland. Okay, hey, real quick, from the listeners now. Listener-generated content. This is from Will. Is Pete Alonzo this year's Ronald Acuna? No. No, I don't think so.

I mean, I'm not sure what the question means, but I don't think he'll be as good as Ocunia was last year. Is he the rookie of the year? Probably. From A.B. Than he could be in that way. From A.B., drop one. Voigt, Vogelbach, or Kano?

Voigt. Really? I think I would drop Vogelbach, but I would rather not drop any of them. From Dan, Muncie, Murphy, Diaz, or McMahon, rest of season at first base slash corner infield. Muncie Murphy, Diaz, McMahon. Muncie. Murphy. Muncie over Murphy.

How are you going to say that? You didn't draft Muncie over Murphy. I think I might have, and Murphy's already gotten hurt. He's coming back to him. He's healthy. He's not healthy. He's still on the aisle. He's coming back today.

He's probably going back yesterday. He's probably goes when he's coming back. Muncie's been sitting a little bit, though. He's not playing every day. He's not playing. There is no way, Heath, that you drafted Muncie over Murphy. Nobody drafted. They were like five rounds apart.

I think you, yeah. Murphy was going like 60th over on. I don't think you were that low on him. And Muncie was going around 100th. I don't think you were much higher than that on him. I don't know. He's just a liar. Worryometer Wednesday.

What do you mean a liar? I was not saying, I was not part of the Daniel Murphy's going to hit 370. Well, I apologize. Nobody said he's going to hits 370. I think that might be your bold prediction. It's a bold prediction. Well, you said it. He still might.

Okay, Worryometer Wednesday. Here we go. It's time to get concerned. Zero to 10. Zero is not concerned at all. No problems. 10 is, yeah, really concerned. This guy is going to be pretty.

Matt. Andrew Benintendi, who actually has a decent slash line. 295, 367, 449, but not exactly taken that step up with a 169 ISO this year. I think that was entering yesterday's games. Andrew Benintendi, Wariometer, zero to ten. I didn't expect him to hit for power. He's probably not going to hit for power, so one? Yeah, he's hitting 295. like he's probably going to be 300, 2020 again. No, I don't have any concern.

Is he going to be 2020? Yeah, I think he probably will be. Okay. But, I mean, he's not taking the next step. You're right about that, but it's not a worry thing. It's just, I'm a little disappointed that he hasn't been awesome. Okay. Worryometer 0 to 10 on Jose Ramirez.

I still don't quite understand. understand what's going wrong with him. So I probably am still like a one or a two. I think I might be more like a three or a four. Just like he's not going to hit 157. He's going to have a very good stretch of better batted ball luck. But he did kind of sell out for power last year, which hurt his

BABIP, which hurt his batting average. And now he's not getting the power either. So it's a little bit concerning. Thankfully, he's still stealing. But the lineup also is pretty bad. Three. Yeah, a lot of the batted ball data looks very similar to last year.

The biggest difference is he's not pulling the ball as much. But in terms of hard hit rate, in terms of average exit velocity, he looks like largely the same guy and I think he's probably just a few tweaks away from getting back to being an elite player All right, this is Jose Ramirez.

He's played 22 games this year. The final 38 games of last year were also terrible, a 577 OPS. So that's 60 games now where he's batting about 160 with three home runs. That's alarming. But yeah, I still have complete faith in him. I think we more or less do.

Joey Vado on the Worryometer. Career low walk rate, career high strikeout rate, not even close. So Worryometer on Joey Votto, zero to ten. Five? Maybe five and a half?

I'm much more worried if the idea is Joey Votto is going to bounce back to what he was before last year. I'm not particularly worried that he can repeat what he did last year. But he has, like, rate is absurd compared to where he normally is.

He's like a 27%. The walk rate's still good. I mean, it's down, but it's still good. I'm relatively concerned that he's just not usable in a category's league where you don't use a corner infielder. Okay. Yeah, I'm two or three. And so the thing about Votto, you know, you can make a case either way.

But for Vado, I said this last time we talked about him, we were having this conversation about Matt Carpenter last year. He was coming off a down year. He got off to a slow start, and he obviously turned it around. I think also you can look at Edwin Encarnacion. I think it was two years ago. He starts off the season with a ton of strikeouts, you know, and maybe Paul Goldschmidt, too.

And then, you know, the last five months or so for Encarnacion, I do believe it was 2017. The strikeouts normalized. You know, he was back to his plate discipline that we usually see, and he was really good again. So it's too early to give up on Vincarcion. I do think Chris is maybe a little under-concerted on Vano, given how bad his year was last year,

at least the way I see it. I think that's probably we disagree on how bad it was. Well, no, I think there was some bad luck last year. I think he's been really bad this year, but he had a stretch. I'm looking at his 20-game rolling averages. He had a pretty long stretch in 2016 where he struck out 30% of the time.

He also during that stretch was walking about 9 to 10% of the time. This is not unheard of for him. Now, his skills have likely declined since 2016, but I don't know. I think he's going to be okay. All right. How about Nick Castiano's? I got an interesting stat about Nick Castianos. This guy was a top 16 outfielder last year.

And now he's batting 244 with no home runs. does have eight doubles and a triple. He's having a really bad year. Zero to ten on Nick Castellanos. He looks pretty upset about it in his picture. Well, he looks like he doesn't want me talking about it. Like, yo, Azer. What up?

I think there's been a little bit of bad luck here. His profile doesn't look that different than it normally does. He's still hitting the ball really hard. Still, fly ball rate's actually up. Yeah, I don't know. I'm not too worried. He is striking out considerably more than he did last year. I think it's like 30%, 29%, 28.2%, to be exact.

Here's the thing I want to say that's encouraging about Castiano's. In his career, he's really been very good against lefties. That's kind of where he's made his hay. He has a career 844 OPS against lefties, 761 against righties. Going into yesterday, I know it's higher now because he faced Chris Sale. he was one for eight against lefties. So it's just a team that has not faced a lot of southpaws, and maybe when they do face more.

There are not a lot of southpaws in that division now. They have the fewest runs. Let me see. Do they have the fewest of bats? The tigers have the second fewest of bats against lefties. The twins do have the fewest, so that might hurt Castellanos. Maybe they're just playing in a division where you don't get a lot, but then again, Cleveland's 15th.

I won't go through it all. Um, he'll face more lefties than he is now, but sure. All right, zero to ten, Heath on Castiano's. Three. Okay. He's not that exciting of a player, but maybe you buy low on him in a deeper league, because in a five-alfi other league, Cassianos probably should be a guy you never take out of your lineup. He can be really steady.

Let's take a quick break here. When we come back, we got more on the Woriometer. What else we got? Bullpen stuff as Emilio Pagan has gotten a save in two straight days for the raise. What does it mean? Double dongs yesterday from a while. Voigt Bogart's, Travis Shaw, and Framiel Reyes, and we'll also talk about Matt Boyd if we have a chance. So come right back here on Fantasy Baseball today. Stick around.

Back to the Wariometer, Manny Machado, batting 241 with four home runs. And, uh-oh, he has a 314 slugging percentage at home. You know people were worried about him. Leaving Camden yards. He wasn't as good with the Dodgers as he was with the Orioles. zero to 10 on the Machado Wariometer. And he is someone who has had pretty substantial home road splits over his time in Boston as well. He was more like a Baltimore.

Baltimore, yes. He was more like a high 700s OPS guy on the road. And his bat at ball profile is a little concerning. He's... Zero to 10 on the Wariometer. Eight. Five. Eight.

Okay, this is significant here. Are you dropping Machado in your rankings? Do you no longer consider him to be a stud? This is worrisome. I have dropped him a couple of spots. I mean, he plays, shortstop and third base are probably the two best offensive positions now. And so you can drop him and he can still be a borderline stud.

But I don't know if it's unfair to say that Manny Machado has never really been an elite hitter outside of Camden Yards. No, it's totally accurate. I'd say. So would you take Carlos Correa or Javier Baez or, you know, Mondesi over Machado? I think you consider it. I'm not sure I'd do it 100%, but it's not out of the question. I am currently thinking I would take, I have a Pichato six that shortstop right now in Roto. Okay, well, you know what? I'm not seeing that in your updated rankings. Heath.

Is that just a clear, I have to probably clear my cash. I'll do that later. Clear your cash. Okay. Yassio Pueig, zero to ten on the Wariometer. This is one that a lot of the listeners were asking for. He did hit a home run and drive in three yesterday, but he's batting 183 with three home runs.

And two walks at 20 strikeouts for Pueg, a 552 OPS. Zero to 10, Wariometer. Maybe the Reds have just faced really good pitching. I don't think that... I don't think so. No, probably not.

Yeah. Yeah, you have to be a little bit worried. He's not this bad, but yeah, I'll put him at a six or seven. I was expecting a really big season for Yassie L. Pueig, and there are some signs for positivity, but not a ton. Seven. So remember we kept talking about that group of outfielders, Pui. David Dahl, Michael Conforto, I always forget the other ones, but Mitch Hanager was going there,

Eddie Rosario was going in that range. Michael Brantley was in that range. Yeah, Brantley was even later than that. Is Puege behind everyone now? Yeah. Yeah. The only question for me would be Dahl. I have Dahl. Actually, I take that back.

I have Dahl one spot behind him currently, but all those other guys were the, most part have moved up several spots. He's behind Marcelo Zuna. Oh yeah, for sure. He's behind Michael Brantley for sure. He's behind Conforto, who's a top

20 outfielder for me now. He's behind Hanigur for sure. I've got him behind Domingo Santana. Okay. Oh, that's interesting. Let me just say something. Let me say something about Pugge here. He's played like 22 games, 20 games.

552 OPS. The first 28 games of last season, Yaso Pweek had a 500 OPS. So this stuff does happen. He batted 200 with zero home runs last year. The plate discipline was better. Seven walks to 22 strikeouts compared to two walks of 20 strikeouts. But these things happened.

Last 97 games for him last season, he had a 925 OPS. All right. It seems like his swings a little off. So he's due for a hot streak. I don't know. It's exactly what he did last year. Just something to keep in mind. All right, we got to go quicker here.

Eloy Jimenez, zero to ten. Actually, forget about the Wuriometer. I'm going to the dropometer. Zero to 10 on the dropometer. Zero. One. All right, then let's go back to the Wariometer. Zero to 10 for Hibna's.

Seven. Four? Most of my worry has to do with are the White Sox going to send him down for a couple of weeks to get his head right? But there's nothing. There's nothing encouraging. Terrible hard contact rate.

Five walks, 25 strikeouts, three homers, two doubles, and 20 games. I mean, there's nothing that you can, he's been unlucky. Like, he's just been bad. Yeah. But he's also 21, 22 years old. It's his first taste of the majors.

This happens sometimes. Sometimes guys are overmatched early on, but it doesn't necessarily mean that he will be moving forward. he hasn't been good. There is, like you said, nothing really that should make you optimistic at this point, except for the elite track record of production in the minors and his pedigree as one of the best prospects of the last five years. And I don't know that this is true,

but somebody had sent me a message talking about his performance at the start of the season in the minor leagues, and mostly it looked like he'd not been great in April. he'd not played in a lot of places. Like he's been in Winston, Salem, Birmingham, Myrtle Beach. I'm not sure if he's played a lot of places that are like Chicago in April. So he may just need it to warm up a little bit. All right, that's Eloy Jimenez. And finally, Aaron Nola.

Aaron Nola's got a 684 ERA and 12 walks and 25 innings, which is surprising. Wuriometer on Aaron Nola. One, two. Okay, by low. Let's go to the bullpen. In the bullpen, Shane Green. I keep mentioning him.

You know, well, keep mentioning him. I mentioned once at the top of the show. He has 11 saves. Detroit has 12 wins. So right there, that rate is obviously not going to keep up. And the Tigers aren't going to be good. I don't think. But he's having a really strong year.

Two years ago, he was great. Last year he was terrible. What do you think about Shane Green? Is he someone that people should be trying to sell? Or is he a legit starting closer? Or both? I wouldn't recommend anyone buy, but if there is someone in your league who wants to buy, yeah, make an offer. He's decent.

I don't really think he's very good, so much so that in all my leagues that are deeper than 12 teams, I drafted Joe Jimenez, thinking Jimenez would eventually be the closer because Shane Green was going to fall on his face. He's done a good job so far. He's been very good. But yes, I would absolutely be looking to sell. You want me to read you the text message conversation I had with Scott White yesterday, trying to convince him we need to pick up Sergio Romo in the 16-team categories league? Sure. Yeah.

Okay. Do you want to drop anyone for Sergio Romp? Romo. And then he wrote, who would you drop? Ahmed Rosario or Matt Barnes or scope, probably scope. I mean, I don't really want to. I'm going to try to use a different voice for Scott. I mean, I don't really want to.

That doesn't sound like Scott. I just need a different voice. Closers don't grow on trees. Let's see if he's pitching now in the bottom of the ninth. We have two guys at second base that we'd like better than Scope. We're never playing him. And Robo takes the mound. I mean, his numbers so far look like they did two years ago.

We'd play that if it continues, talking about scope. Plus, Romo is liable to hurt our ratios. Me about Scope. He's had two games with two home runs and has been terrible otherwise. He never walks in as a possible one category guy. Fine. pick someone else. Barnes, Rosario? I think I'd be more willing to drop Rosario if you feel like we have to.

We punt steals anyway, so I don't know what Rosario is going to do for it. This segment didn't, this hasn't worked as well as I thought. I dropped anyway, long story short, we dropped Rosario for Romo. He's the closer for the Marlins. Emilio Pagan also has two saves now for the race. Who would you rather have for Rosario or Romo? Or, sorry, Pagan or Romo. Romo. I don't think the Pagon thing is anything.

They had a three-run lead in the ninth inning and both. they're not worried about the royals, especially because I don't think in either scenario, Maryfield or Mondesie was up, and I kind of think those are the only two guys you might really be worried about. So I think that it was just circumstance.

I think Pagan might get eight saves this year. This going into the year was one of the situations that it looked like it could get the messiest right there with Philadelphia, and we were a little bit lucky. I feel like early in the year that it was kind of predictable. So I think he's fine in A-L-only. I think he's fine in a deeper league where you really are desperate for saves.

I do think he'll give you pretty decent ratios. If Chris and I were trying to decide whether to pick him up in that same for the People League, the text message would have looked like, hey, I just dropped so-and-so-for-for-gone. Scott gives me pretty much no free reign. I just want you to know. He's a vicious rule. He's way too tightly on for that. And I also think you should know that Scott does have some hope for Joe.

Jonathan's scope. Nice rhyme there. He thinks that the injury he was dealing with last year. He hasn't. He hasn't looked good. Didn't you hear my comments on him? My commentary? He's had like three good games all year.

But his full season statistics are more predictive than partial season. Yeah, but I think he homered twice against Baltimore, and that really shouldn't count. A quick round of emails at fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. This is from Jeremy with a Game of Thrones themed greeting. Dear Scott Whitewalker, Adam Azor a high, Heath Winter is Cummings, and Chris Towers of Joy. Luis Castillo has been Dragonfire so far this year. Is Luis Castillo now a stud?

Or would you move him without hesitation for an ace like Sale and Nola and Klubor and Strassburg and Kershaw? I would trade him for Kluber and probably Nola. I think that's it from that group. I would not move him without hesitation for most of those guys, but I do think I would trade him for all of those guys. He has also been Dragon Fire so far this year, and he may just be a stud.

I've got him right on the precipice of that group of starting pitchers, but let's also be real. And remember, we've seen five incredible starts from Luis Castillo numerous times before. So I'm not ready to say, like, if I can go get one of those guys, I'm going to do it. Next email is from Bill in Minnesota here. He wants to know about Jesse Winker.

He's frustrated because Winker got pinch hit for yesterday for Phil Irvin because the lefty was up or lefty was pitching. And yeah, Bill is concerned that Winker's just not going to play against lefties. And by the way, in his last eight games, he's four for 20. And Winker has started two of four games against lefties. Winker is 69% own last week or the week before we were saying, you have to add this guy, you know, do we still feel that way? You have to add this guy.

I still feel that way. He's had some really bad luck this year. I don't really see, like, he's not walking, and nobody on the Reds really is. I'm not sure what's going on there, but the batted ball profile suggests that he should be much better than this. I think he's getting pulled for lefties or sat for lefties because he's not getting the results right now.

But I think most of the profile still suggests that he can be the very good hitter we were hoping he would be. This is an email from Christopher, dear Will, Emmett, and Anna Nicole. Smith's. Do we need to start taking Dwight Smith seriously? Smith is Orioles outfielder. Wait, that's not from Christopher. That's from Dan. No, this is from Christopher.

Smith is a 53% own Orioles outfielder who is batting 287 with five homers and three steals and he has three home runs in his last seven games. Do we need to take Dwight Smith seriously? He should be owned in all five outfielder leagues. I don't know that he's really going to be worthwhile in a three outfielder points league. This is an email from Dan.

Here's one from Dan. Can we get a little chatter about Renato Nunez? Who is this guy? Is he worth picking up? Two Orioles emails in a row. how about that? Neither of these guys has a ton of pedigree. Renano Nunez bad at Ball Data is actually really good.

So 92.6% or mile per hour exit velocity, 49% hard hit rate. If you want to buy in, the cost is low enough. He might be worth a flyer. He's only third base eligible? That I'm not sure. He is.

That makes it tougher. Baltimore 9 and 16 better than I thought they'd be and Boston 9 and 15 slightly worse than I thought they be This is from Ken Do you think Chase Anderson Can stay in the Brewers rotation? I think there's a very good chance

We talked about this on Monday when it was just Scott and I And like the Brewers have tried really hard To do the thing that all of us wanted them to do And give all these young pitchers A chance to be in the rotation And they've just all been bad and it's about time to go back to the boring old guys that we don't like and complain about.

And last email is from Jimmy and Chicago. Dear War Dog, Devons, Ron, and Kelly. That's easy, right? Yes, that is easy. I know that one, for sure. Someone dropped you Darvish. I'm going to let Adam say it. Yeah, let Adam Google.

Someone dropped you Darvish in my 12-12 team 5-5 Roto League. Should I drop any of the following? for Darvish. Dallas Kichel, Cole Hamels, John Gray. Keikle. Yeah, I'm fine with dropping Kichael on that. Oh, this is Survivor. Survivor. War Dog, Devons, Ron, and Kelly. CBS. Horae for CBS. Scott on there. Deep leagues. Oh, yes. It loves Sprague. Do you like any of these guys in Deep League? Angels Outfielder, Brian Goodwin. He's 21% own.

Texas second baseman Danny Santana, who's filling in for Roodenetador, but he's been very good. 9% own. Yankees first baseman Mike Ford, Toronto, D.H, Rowdy, Tellez, only 5% own, and Cardinals' starting pitcher Daniel Ponce De Leon, who made a spot start yesterday, he's 4% own. Do you like Goodwin, Santana, Mike Ford, Teles, or De Leon? I really feel like the Cardinals might have discovered something with Ponce Dalyon.

But I don't think he's going to get to stay in the rotation once Michael Walk is back, so I will not be adding him. Rowdy Telez is the most interesting of this group to me. He has really good power potential, and he's in a team where he should get to play every day. He hasn't quite so far, but I think that may change moving forward, and he could be a 30 homer guy.

Yeah, he didn't hit for a ton of power in the minors. There was only one season where he really did, but all the bad at ball data suggests that he should be a very good power hitter. I'm stunned that he's only 5% owned. I think that needs to be way higher. I think he's mixed league viable. I'm starting him at a corner infield spot in a 15 team league, and I think he's a starting option there.

Rowdy, Teles. And I just, I'm struggling to make a Fountain of Youth joke. Ponce de Leon is 27 years old. That's not that young. I guess he could use that's why you make a discovery joke. Yeah, mine's more specific. Double dongs, yeah, I'm sorry, kind of. to miss this segment. Framo Reyes is 52% owned and he was two for 15 with one walk and nine

strikeouts in five games before hitting two home runs yesterday. Before those terrible five games, he was eight for 23 with four home runs in eight games before that. Baseball player had good stretch followed by bad stretch followed by good game. Right. So where are we on Frambeau? The more relevant thing is the last piece in the notes. The 11 of 12 games started. If he's starting, I want him on my team. Okay. Reyes. I'm just going to say that Jorge Alfaro at 50% own and Mike Zanino at 40% owned feel like underowned catchers to me. They are the same player, but they will hit for power with a bad batting average. At least, well, at least Zunino will have a bad batting average. Alfaro is batting 281, but he has one walk to 25 strikeouts. They are going to be much better in categories, leagues, than points leagues. But catchers so bad right now that take a look and see if Alfarro and Mike Zunino are on waivers. Who would you guys rather have? I'd rather have Zunino. I think I have them back to back.

I agree that they're both borderline top 12 guys, but yeah, Zanino has really, like, he got off to such a terrible start. But he was a top 12 catcher for me before the season, and he's been over his last week and a half. He's been really pretty quite productive, so I'll take him. Eight game hitting streak for Mike Zanino. And we're going to do a segment we don't usually do until later in the year. try to do it a little bit more than we typically do. We're going to look ahead to today's matchups, and I guess we can do some of the one o'clock games,

but can we agree never to mention Homer Bailey's name in a positive light on the show again? No. He might have a good start eventually again. Right. I bet, yeah. Multiple in a row. Yeah, we'll probably throw him in the four-man race.

Wait, I will, I'll make you a deal. Okay. I will agree never to mention Homer Bailey's name in a positive light again if we can also add Lance Lynn. It's a package deal. We can never say

Lance Lynn might be good again. I'm vetoing this unless we add Greg Bird. Oh, we have so much fun with Greg Bird. He's the gift that keeps on giving for you anyway. I haven't mentioned Greg. I only mentioned Greg Bird today as it related to Sunny Gray,

but I'm fine with that. All right, here we go. MLB scoreboard. Sandy Alcantara against Jeff. referee Rodriguez in the game everybody can't wait to see. I think you start

Sandal Cantara against the Indians. They're bad. Jake Junis, no, Blake Snow, yes. Yolisha Seen at Adam Wainwright. No. No, no. I've only heard one name of a pitcher

that I want to start so far today. Blake's now? Yeah. Okay. Do you think that Adam Wainwright has a tough matchup against the Brewers? I don't, I think Adam Wainwright has a tough matchup

up against his own talent. Okay, I just wanted to let you know that Milwaukee has a 686 OPS on the road. That is the 19th worst road OPS in baseball. But yeah, there's no way I'm starting out of weight, right? Just letting you know. Do you get the 19th worst? 19th worst road OPS of all the teams, all the road OPSs. 19th best.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, 19th best. They rank 19th. Because if it was the 19th worst, that would be like the 11th. Yeah, yeah, yeah, it's bad. Annabal Sanchez at Armand Marquez. Armand Marquez. Yeah, kind of, a little bit. Did you mention that...

Oh, yeah, I'm a little worried. Did you mention that he had a toothache in his last home start? Oh, well. No, you sent me that in the... Well, no, no, no, Heath. The tooth bone is connected to the head bone, which is connected to the shoulder bones. That makes sense.

Adam sends me like eight pieces of notes from the weekend, a weekend in which everything happened. And one of the eight things that he thought it was important that I get into the notes was at Hermann Marquez, had a toothache. And maybe that's why he had just a mediocre start. No, it was a pretty severe toothache, apparently. I don't know.

No, I didn't mention that. He's probably not going to be as good at Coorsfield as he was. No, wait, wait, we got to go. We got to go. We got to go. We got to go. Chavez, Jesse Chavez at Aaron Brooks. No.

Felix Hernandez at Chris Paddock. Paddock. Yeah. Drew Pomerant to Clay Buckholz. No. No. Mike, Maraca,

Tano, Roark. Syroca. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Merrill Kelly at Jordan Liles.

Liles. Liles. For sure. Irvin Santana at John Means. White Sox at Orioles. Yeah, no. Vince.

Thank you. Means. Vince Velasquez at Jason Vargas. I prefer John Nices. Start, Vince. I'm a little wary, but yeah. Tyson Ross at Eduardo Rodriguez. I don't think I can trust

Eduardo Rodriguez. E. Rod's borderline for me. I would start them over some of the other guys that we've been wishy-washy about. Walker Bueller at Cole Hamels. Yep. Yep. This would be Cole Stewart

at Justin Verlander. Just Verlander. C.C. Sabathia at Felix Pena. Yeah, you stirs the bath, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Thanks for listening, everybody.

Appreciate it. We'll talk to you tomorrow. Thursday's show will be Scott and Heath, right? Yeah. And we'll do a trade show. Buy low, sell high, buy high, all that fun stuff. Send us your emails, Fantasy Baseball, cpsi.com. Until tomorrow, this is Fantasy Baseball today.