Fantasy Baseball Today - 04/25: Vlad, Trade Talk and "Breakout or Fake Out?" (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: April 25, 2019

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will debut tomorrow, and we're pumped! Vlad or Kris Bryant rest of season? Who is going to get saves for LAA (4:08)? What's up with Giancarlo Stanton (7:16)? And of course we get into yesterday's standouts (10:30) including Rhys Hoskins and Chris Paddack. Is now the time to sell Paddack? ... Any concerns about Blake Snell or Walker Buehler (19:50)? Then we play "Breakout or Fake Out" (22:00) with David Dahl, Domingo Santana and a few others ... Find out which prospects you need to stash (33:00) and then get some trade talk (39:00) as Scott and Heath give you a Buy Low, Sell High and Buy High. We finish up with a recap of yesterday's action (47:30) as Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Vince Velasquez and John Means merit discussion ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Who's excited for the top prospect in baseball? We know when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be debuting. It's tomorrow.

And we're pretty excited about it. Welcome to the Thursday show. It is the 25th of April. on fantasy baseball today. And of course, it is NFL draft day, round one tonight in Nashville, and you got to watch it on CBS Sports HQ. I am Adam Azer with Heath Cummings and Scott White.

Heath and I will be recapping the first round of the draft on the Fantasy Football Today podcast tomorrow morning after we do fantasy baseball today. So how many leagues in how many leagues do you own Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Heath Cummings? Zero. Scott White. Yeah, I think I'm in the same boat.

Zero. Oh, you losers. I don't have them in any leagues either. We're all losers. Zero's across the board. Why is that? What happened? Why?

I got him in a couple mocks, but it just seemed like I always had different priorities at the right point in the draft to take them. I don't think there was anything wrong with where it was going. Early in draft rep season, it seemed like it was more in the round four range, which is a little high for me. But it got pushed down more like round six or seven as it became. clear he wasn't going to make the opening day roster and then he suffered the oblique injury that was going to delay his start to the minor league season. It didn't

seem like that was really going to impact his timetable, so I wasn't so interested in downgrading him. But even so, it just, I don't know, I was usually looking at like Clayton Kirschaw or Hermann Marquez at that point in the draft and it just, apart from a couple of mocks, it just didn't work out for me

to get him. Well, and his numbers are eye-popping and he gets this oblique injury and then on basically his minor league rehab assignment, he still crushed the ball. So all he does is hit. And he's going to debut on Friday. So that's outstanding.

We're looking forward to it. And Heath, would you rather have Chris Bryant or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? I would still rather have Chris Bryant, but they, I think, are back to back in my ranking. So it's very, very close. I can understand wanting Vlad. I just still feel more confident in what Bryant's going to be this year. I would rank Brank.

Ryan ahead of him too, but I would say that if I owned Guerrero, I wouldn't be offering up him for Chris Bryan in a trade. I feel like it's pretty clear Guerrero has first round upside. We've seen so many rookies come and show the full extent of their potential when they reach the majors. And the fact that he has such a low strikeout rate, I think makes him a clear example of a player who's going to do that. Obviously, no guarantees. But, I wouldn't want to sell short the upside as a confidence level measure, especially when I already have so much invested in them. I mean, you had to use a pretty high pick to get him. All right.

Welcome to the big leagues, Vladimir Guerrero. So we're going to start with just some big news items, including Vlad. We're pretty much done with that. New Angels closer, perhaps. Some Wednesday standouts. Some studs being duds. Are we concerned about Blake Snell or Walker Bueller or Cole Hamels? Yeah, I know that Blake Snell is not really concerning, but he did say his toe still bothers him when he's.

walk, so we'll talk about that. And Bueller, maybe a lot more concerning, only 18 strikeouts and 24 innings. I got a segment called Breakout or Fake Out. I'm not sure if I've ever used that before, but I was so proud of myself for coming up with that title, Breakout or Fake Out, and then Scott and Heath are going to give you a buy low, a sell high, and a buy high later on in the show. Also try to do some grade the trade and read emails at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Here's the rest of your big news.

Carlos Carrasco not expected to miss his next start. A sigh of relief there. Cody Allen is out as the Angels closer, at least for now. Well, Scott, you wonder your tie buttry, Alfred from Batman thing? Oh, my gosh, I'm so in practice with the Alfred impression. I don't even remember what my key up was. I'm not going to be able to pull it out. I'm sorry.

I wish I could. It will at some point. Frank Calli Endo. Come on. Well, Buttree, so I saw the news and then I put in a $10 bid out of $100 for Buttree. Out of $100 budget, I had like 80 left. And then I was watching the game and he comes in in the seventh inning. But he came in in the seventh inning with them clinging to a lead and the base is loaded and I think nobody out. So it was the highest leverage situation possible.

And he did a decent job getting out of the inning. Got a little lucky with a weird double play. And then he kept on pitching. So yesterday, Butchrey pitched, I don't know, it was like two and two thirds or something like that. And I think he's probably their best reliever. But they also have Justin Anderson, who's off to a good start. They have Hansel Robles, who's off to a fine start. Ten of his 12 appearances have been scoreless.

So Heath, you know, break it down with the Angels bullpen right now. What are we doing? Well, I think both Butchery and Anderson are currently better pitchers than Cody Allen. but I did not get the impression when they announced that Cody Allen was no longer the closer, that it was Cody Allen is not our closer anymore for the rest of the season. I don't really think there is someone that's going to take this job from Cody Allen and necessarily keep it for the rest of the years. I think the $10 bid is fine.

I don't, I wouldn't go any more than that. I don't know for sure that you're getting a rest of the season closer. And I don't think we know for sure that it's going to be Butchery over Anderson at this point. So I still think Cody Allen gets saves again later this year, and this turns into another messy situation. When they signed Allen, it kind of looked like this would be one of the teams that had a closer. Now it's not. Yeah, I'm sorry. So I should have finished what I was saying.

Butchery, I did put a $10 bid in. Then I saw he pitched in the seventh inning, and I lowered it to seven, and I still ended up with Butchry. And I also got Robles for $1. I didn't go after Anderson because he walked 40 batters in 55 in a third last year, and he's walked four batters in six and two thirds this year. So, closers are wild, I get it, but he's, like, unbelievably wild. Yet I still acknowledge he could easily get the next save, and maybe even not the one after that. So it is messy.

But, okay, that's his thoughts. There we go. Scott, I don't know if you want to add anything. You're probably looking at a committee. And Hansel Robles, I think, is a name that deserves mentioning Tier 2. I said I just picked them up for a dollar. Yeah, I picked up for a dollar. He just said Hansel Robles.

Twice. Scott. Okay. Sorry. I was trying to get the Michael Cain. They work it off. I wasn't listening. I know.

I figured. I'm sorry. I just kept missing Anderson. Mishing Anderson. John Carlos Stanton. He's on the deal with IL with a biceps injury. That has healed, but now he has a lingering shoulder problem. Okay.

So what are your expectations, guys, for Giancarlo Stanton rest of season? Yeah, I mean, that was frustrating to hear. I still think it's probable he's going to be back by the weekend. Wait. So I'm not. By this upcoming weekend, Giancarlo Stanton? Yeah. Yeah.

He's getting a, you know, he can't come back right now because he's got the shot in a shoulder. But that is not something that's going to take days and days to recover from. Oh, okay. But what's the reason he had to have the shot? Because he has a sore shoulder, right? I forgot the word they use, like, residual or something. There's some type of issue in his shoulder that I thought was more concerning than you seem to think it is. I'm not saying I'm right.

Let's see if I could read something about it right now. The tweet from Brian Hoke, he's completely healed from the bicep strain, but required a cortisone shot in his left shoulder. He will stay in SoCal through the weekend. then join the team in Arizona where he could ramp up his swinging. But I don't think he's close to actually playing right now. Residual stuff with his shoulder. Yeah, so it won't be this weekend. It could be next week.

They say they don't think it's a long thing. But a shoulder injury is certainly, like, especially for a guy who almost all of his value is power, that is a concern that he, even if he does come back that he's not 100% John Carlos Stanton. All right, ready? Yeah, I just, when did he hurt the shoulder?

Like, I feel like, I don't know, I got the impression, and maybe this is just me. I mean, clearly I wasn't read enough on the issue, but I got the impression that it was kind of a nagging thing that he was already dealing with. And I don't know. I could be wrong with that. Okay, here we go.

You have John Carlos Stanton. I have Mitch Hanager. I offer you a trade. Your Stanton for my Hanager. Which button do you press? What pop quiz hot shot? Which button do you press? What's my record?

You're two and two? I probably take it. I decline. I want Stanton. Okay, he takes Hanager. Scott takes Stanton. More Yankees news. Another guy on the IL.

Clint Frazier on the IL with a sprained ankle. He could miss 10 to 14 days. It's really getting weird in Yankee land. Meanwhile, is George Costanza the trainer for the Yankees? Yeah, the problem is they had new cotton uniforms and they shrunk and they're all injured because of it. Do you get that reference? Yeah, totally.

Okay, that was a George Costanza idea giving them cotton uniforms. They're walking like penguins because they all shrunk. So Miguel and Duhar may be able to avoid surgery. John Lester's back today. He's going to face the Dodgers. Start or sit, John Lester. Sit. Sit.

And that Olson could begin a rehab assignment next week. And let's get to Wednesday's standouts. I'll throw it to Heath. Who stood out to you Wednesday? Give me someone good. Like, I don't know if this fits in the traditional sense of what we do with standouts in this section generally, but I'm going with Reese Hoskins. First off, he did dong, so he did something for fantasy purposes.

But it was the greatest home run trot in the history of home run trots. It took him like... 34 seconds. Yeah, 34 seconds. A little bit more than that. Longer than Bartolo, Colleges. alone last year. I believe the longest home run trot on record, and

it was glorious. On record? It's as the long as this year, it thinks it's the longest ever for Reese Hoskins? Well, they haven't been keeping track of, like, I don't think they have the time on every home run trot ever. Right. They don't. I did see it was a record breaking, so I believe

it probably in the stat cast era. Okay. Yeah, so he got thrown at twice, I believe, on Tuesday, and then he hit a home run off that same pitcher. on Wednesday, and I'm going to watch it now. It took 34 seconds to a little bit more than 34 seconds. Oh, there's the video of him getting thrown at.

Oh, that's not cool, man. That's 97-phous-hour right over his head. All right, great. Yes, but, well, he, do you want to talk about Reese Hoskins for fantasy purposes? I mean, I think him hitting a home run doesn't change anything for Reese Hoskins for fantasy purposes. We know what he is, and he's a guy that's going to hit a ton of home runs. So far this year, it's,

been a pretty encouraging start to the season. I think he's a borderline top five first baseman and a borderline top 15 outfielder, maybe top 12. He is actually fifth at first base in points. And in Roto, Reese Hoskins is one, two, three, four, five, six, seventh. Um, 17 walks, 28 strikeouts, seven home runs, 20 RBIs. It's a really good number and 18 runs. Um, so good stuff so far for Hoskins. And I'd love to get some metrics, but every time I've watched him, it seems like he's a bad defensive first basement, too. So he should probably just DH somewhere. Hopefully that'll be in the NL soon. He has been negative at first base every year of his career, I believe. Yeah. And in the outfield. Yeah, well, obviously, I know in the left field, it was terrible,

but, Scott, how about you? There's such an obvious standout. It's 12 minutes in the show. We haven't talked about him yet. Hit me with it. All right, delay it one more second. I did confirm that the shoulder issue for Stan was something he was playing with before the bicep strain. It predated it. So, but some additional context there. But yes, my standout is Chris Patton. I assume that's the obvious name. That's the one.

He had a one-hit gym against the Mariners, nine strikeouts. Clearly the best start he's had this year. But for me, it, I know this is going to be kind of a weird take, but for me, it kind of reinforced the problem, if you want to call it, that with Chris Paddock. Because I didn't really have much doubt based on what he did in the minors, what he did this spring, really what he did over his first four starts, that he could be a dominant pitcher. This was the clearest evidence of that, but I don't really feel like I learned anything new.

He threw only 83 pitches in this start and has yet to reach 90 in any of his four. You've got to feel like that is by design, probably an attempt by the Padres who look like they're going to be in contention to keep them around as long as possible this year. You only threw 90 innings last year. They limit not just the innings, but the pitches. Then, you know, he can pitch deeper into season. That's probably a good move for the Padres. For fantasy purposes, though, it's less than ideal because it took one-hitter levels of efficiency for Paddock to go seven innings.

And I think that's a big reason why he hadn't won a game. until yesterday. On a start-by-start basis, it's also going to limit his strikeout potential. I think he'll give you great ratios. I think he's must-own, certainly, probably even must start in like a categories league, maybe not a points league.

But I would rather have big impact over a shorter period of time than moderate impact over a longer period of time in fantasy. And I feel like Paddock's going to give you the latter. Yeah, Paddock was actually, going to be my cell high. Oh, good. We get to the by low, sell high column.

So I agree with Scott entirely. He's very, very good, but we knew coming into the year, what is the innings limit was going to be in? And even with the way they've kind of babyed him so far, I mean, he's had a three, an inning where he didn't get out of the fourth. He's had two innings where he basically went five innings. He's on pace over 30 starts to throw 162 innings. So I still think it's likely there's a period of time at some point this year where he's

just shut down for a few weeks or skips a few starts if they really want to have him available for the playoffs. I don't think he's going to throw 162 innings and be available in the playoffs. Right, because Paddock missed all of 2017, and then he threw just 90 innings in the minors in 2018. I'm so glad you guys are saying this because I was going to say, I have been trying to sell high on Chris Paddock, and now this just gives me more ammo. Which would be easier now. But you know what I'm seeing, like the problem with Bilo sell high, unless you know, Maybe I'll try to trade them for a hitter.

But I feel like the main sell hot or the main buy low pitchers are are aces. And I can't get that for Chris Paddock, you know? Like I don't think I can get Walker Bueller. I have Walker Bueller concerns, but I still think that's a trade you'd have to take. I can't get Chris Sale for Chris Paddock. Last week I couldn't get. Maybe you could package something. Right.

Maybe. I feel like, I could be wrong. I mean, there was a lot of negative reactions to sales start. I don't know. I don't know why people are such downers. But I think Joe Fantasy player will look at what Sale did in his last start and say, all right, well, I've already held out this long. Why am I going to trade him now?

Right. So, yeah. But maybe packaging paddock with something else will get it done. I understand your larger point, though, that given the current state of pitching, it's hard to give up the pitcher without getting one in return. And obviously, you sell high. you want to get an upgrade. Right.

Like I wish like, maybe Walker Bueller. Yeah. Right. I mentioned him, but I wish like Jose Barrios had like a 5ERA right now and I could go for someone in that range as opposed to, you know, Stephen Strasbourg range, even though he's coming off a great start. All right. Mike Soroka is another guy we got to talk about 69% owned. After that, we will talk about Walker Bueller, among others. Soroka, seven strikeouts and five and two thirds, gave up one run with three walks at Cincinnati.

his first start was five innings, so he hasn't gone six yet. One run, six strikeouts against Arizona. Off to a nice start. Mike Soroka, just 69% owned. Is he a must-own pitcher? Yeah, yeah, he's definitely a must-own. I'm not sure that I am confident yet that he's going to be a must-start pitcher. Did he really throw 109 pitches in five-and-two-thirds?

That's what I have. Yes, yep. That's not particularly great, but he, listen, we've, we've, talked about it since February. There's 17 pitchers on this Braves staff that could be exciting if they get a role and they start to have some success. He was towards the top of that list. And I've got him as basically a borderline top 50 starter right now.

I think he could be as high as top 35, depending on how confident you feel he's going to stay in the rotation. Okay. And I'll just say looking at the two-star pitcher list for next week, it's pretty lean. and Soroka might be one of the only guys that's available that you're going to feel comfortable with. But one of those starts is at Colorado, right? No, I've got them with San Diego at home and Miami on the road.

They already went to Colorado, I think, because Freed pitched in Colorado, I believe. Okay. Yeah, so So So So Soroca might be a good one for you next week. All right, let's take a quick break on fantasy baseball today. Studs being duds, Blake Snell, Cole Hamels, Walker Bueller, when we come back. Plus, breakout or fake out, maybe the best name for a segment ever. We'll be right back on fantasy baseball today.

All right, so who's concerned about Blake Snell, Walker Bueller, or Cole Hamels? I'm not, I wouldn't say I'm concerned in a long-term sense for any of them. Walker Bueller, after looking like he got right in his last start, he credited the analytics department for pointing out some things he was doing wrong. He kind of seemed lost in this start again, just one strikeout. but it's not like the velocities down. I think it's still the residual effects of hardly pitching this spring and he'll eventually be back up to speed.

So I wouldn't be looking to move him or be hitting the panic button or anything. It's just harder to call him an automatic start right now. But Snell, I mean, the toe thing, I guess, is a little concerning, especially since he's still feeling it when he walks around. But the stuff looked okay. they said there was some weird sequencing issues going on. I don't know. I think he's fine.

And Hamels had walked, I think, two batters all year prior to the six walks in this one. Yeah, three batters. Not really worried about him. Yeah, I would put Snell like a negative four on the worryometer. I don't have any real concern about him. He had a bad start, whatever. Bueller, I'm a little more concerned about it because while I do agree with Scott that he's going to figure it out at some point, I also had concerns coming into the year about what he was going to be like.

in August and September And so I'm just worried that Like he figures it out And we get a good second half of May And a good June and a good July And then all of a sudden he's starting to wear down So I'm I'm more concerned about Bueller

I haven't dropped him out of my top 20 yet I've still got him around 17 But I've strongly considered moving him behind Like Burrios and Luis Castillo And then Hamels I'm always going to be concerned about Right. Scott and Heath just disagree on Hamels. So, you know, yesterday the thing with Hamils is the six walks were very unusual.

As Scott mentioned, he only had three walks coming in. He now has nine walks at 30 strikeouts and 31 at a third. And still a very good 316 ERA. Hamils is at Seattle next week. Who is the best pitcher on the Dodgers in fantasy? Kershaw. Probably Kershaw. Okay.

Junjun Riu's been incredible since the start of last year. It's true. You're moving him up to like, don't you have Kershaw 7th in your round? I have Kershaw ranked the highest, yeah. I have like 9th. Yeah, you have 9th. Okay. Yeah.

All right, so break out or fake out. I got five players here who are off to really nice starts, breaking out. But, of course, there's some reason to think it's not necessarily sustainable. But you tell me, break out or fake out. Let's start with Rocky's outfielder David Dahl, who went three for five with two doubles yesterday. He has like a 400 Babbup or something. 500. No way.

His Babbup is exactly 500. Oh my gosh. Okay, break out or fake out for David Dahl? Well, obviously he can't sustain that Babbitt. He's going to have to start striking out less. But I had him as a preseason breakout and I'm not inclined to say he's not breaking out now. Let me let me. I'm going to say.

he's not breaking out. Let me rephrase. Let me rephrase because a breakout could simply mean that he's having his best season. What I want to know is, is he not only having his best season, is he also becoming like a fantasy stud or close to stud? A must-start guy, a really good draft pick, put it that way. So he says fake out. Okay, go ahead. Why? Fake out for Do you. Well, I want to clarify because I don't disagree with Scott's calling him a breakout before the season, and I don't necessarily

disagree that I think he might be a breakout the rest of the season. But so far this season, it's a fake out. He's striking out too often. He's had some really good babit luck. He's already had one minor injury, which is one of the biggest concerns with Dole. There's not been a breakout yet. That's fair. That's fair.

Okay, that's a good point. Let's kind of spin it forward, though. Basically, your rest of season expectations. I personally am pretty excited about David Dole. I mean, the Coorsfield thing obviously helps. but he's been caught stealing both times, but he has run twice, and he hasn't played that many games.

So I think, you know, maybe he steals you 15 bags or something like that. I'm excited about him. He's done nothing this season to make me more excited about him. Oh, but we were excited about him going in. All right. How about Domingo Santana? First 16 games, he had a 10-16 OPS.

Last nine games entering yesterday. He had a 620 OPS, and then he went one for four yesterday. So some good, some bad. Overall, still very good for Domingo Santana. Breakout or fake out? I mean, for me, the bar was so low. I think Heath probably, anybody on the podcast was the highest of Santana.

But the bar was so low that I'm, yeah, I mean, I have him among my top 30 outfielder's now, at least in Roto. So I clearly say breakout. He hadn't homered as much recently, and that's going to be something that obviously impacts the short-term OPS and is going to be something that, you know, they're going to come and go. They come in bunches. They tend to come in bunches for players. So, yeah, based on, I'm not inclined to downgrade him because of a bad week or whatever. Yeah, 10 years.

I'm going to have to redo my notes for the entire section that you have us plan out because Domingo Santana was going to be my buy high. I will call him a breakout. I like Scott. I also have him as a top 25 or top 30 hours. outfielder. The big key for him so far, I don't know if it'll last, is the strikeout rate is not good. It's 25%, but it's much better than it's been in the past in his career. He was a 30% guy. And Seattle has run more than any team other than the Royals.

And Santana already has three stolen bases. So I think, I don't know that he's going to have another 30-15 season, but I think a 30-10 season is certainly possible. Okay, David Dahl, Domingo Santana. How about Josh Bell? Josh Bell is the top 10 first baseman. He already has five home runs. He's batting 299. Still not hitting the ball all that hard.

37.1% is a career high, but based on what Chris said the other day, that's like a league average right now. But yeah, I mean, he had like an 823 OPS after the All-Star break with seven home runs and 50 games. So Josh Bell, break out or fake out? I think yesterday was what firmly won me over to the breakout side of this. And I disappointed I missed out on the waiver wire rush to him.

Don't have any shares in him. But he's now on a 37 homer 44 double 15 triple, if you want to throw that in there, pace with a 385 OPP and a BAP that's perfectly sustainable. Yeah, he's not going to reach those paces. But he does look like a transform play. He's gone super shredder on us. I don't know what Chris was talking about when he was poo-pooing Josh Bell. No, no, that's not what it was.

He was saying that the hard-hit rate, the league average hard-hit rate, hard contact rate was like 37%. So that's where Josh Bell is. Yeah, according to baseball savant, Josh Bell has an average exit velocity of 94.2 miles per hour, which is in the top 4% of the league. His hard-hit rate, according to baseball savant, is 50.8. which is in the top 10% of the league,

that looks an awful lot like a breakout and not a fakeout. And I'll be honest, I hadn't noticed hardly anything Josh Bell has done so far this season. I could see that. Wait, his hard hit rate is what, according to? Because on fan graphs, it's 37.1% as hard contact rate. 50.8. So what the hell is that? They measure them.

They don't measure it the same way. They don't measure it the same way. Advanced stats. They should be at least in the same ballpark. that's ridiculous. All right, one thing to monitor with Bell. One thing that's kind of held him back is his ballpark. And so far, he's been great at home.

He's batting 300 with four of his five home runs at home in 12 games. So if he can keep that up, then that's terrific. Breakout or fake out? Oh, he's great. Next one. Fernando Tatees Jr., okay, obviously he's a rookie. He's going to have his best season. But what are you seeing from him?

Number 12 shortstop in points, number eight in Roto. I almost traded Tattis last week, and then he stole three bases. I was like, I don't think I want to train him in one game. He's got so much potential. The strikeouts concern me, but this guy is so talented. Breakout or fake out for Fernando Tatis. Right now, he's a top 12 shortstop, 12th and points, 8th and Roto. I call him a breakout.

I mean, for as much as he strikes out, as good of a start as he's off to 370 BAPIP. It's going to go down, but it's not like, it's not like, you know, David Dahl's situation where it's alarming. high and I think it's just such a multifaceted player with such a high ceiling in so many ways that I I have him even higher than where he is so far in the shortstop rankings I mean it's kind of a testament to how strong the position's been this year that he's only like 12th you know yeah but in terms of I think over time some of these lower upside ones will will fall back a little in the rankings and Tatis will get pushed up a little more. Yeah, I think it's mostly a breakout. He's one of only two players that already has at least five

home runs and five stolen bases this season. The other one's a shortstop as well. The batted ball data looks like a very good hitter. He's swinging and missing way too much. And I do think if he strikes out this often, he's just going to have a bad batting average. I mean, it's 29% strikeout rate. It's not like 35. It's high. It's not among the worst in baseball. No. Keith, is it Trevor's story, the other one, 5-5? It is.

It is. Go me. All right, finally, Brandon Lowe, let's do this one quickly here, 80% owned. And he is really off to a good start, but also a high babbup, 388 babbip, a 49.1% hard contact rate on fan graphs. And I don't know what it is on baseball savon. But batting 291 with six home runs, he's been leading off a little bit lately. So many strikeouts.

Brandon Lau, breakout or fake out? It's kind of in between because this is a guy who was hardly drafted. And that, I mean, it's hard to say he's not going to exceed those expectations. I think he's must own right now. But he does have a strikeout rate that's verging on 35%. So I've been reluctant to buy into him fully to make him like a fixture in my lineup. I think you could make the Casey's a sell high. Okay.

But at the same time, he's going to provide good power, play a lot, probably get on base at a pretty good rate. Well, you know, in terms of walks, but the batting average could suffer. So, like, I think, you know, you can call these guys sell highs just based on where they were drafted. They're sort of exceeding expectations. But Lao is probably the only one where I feel like if I did, well, I don't know about that. Let's compare Lao and Tatis. If I traded Tatis, I would be fearful that I just traded away Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna, like a major impact rookie who really wasn't a sell high.

I don't feel that way about Lao. I think, I mean... Agreed. Yeah. And that's obvious. Like, nobody thinks Lao's as good as Tatis. But if you're looking to sell high, maybe Lao, not a bad option. But at the same time, you could keep him and he's fine.

He's good. Did I confuse people there? Did that make sense? That was really well said. We need to make sure that we, yeah, that was great. Thank you. Thank you very much. We got to talk about prospects and trade targets.

We'll take one more break here on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, we'll update you on Bo Bichette, talk about some guys who have been called up recently and read a couple of prospect emails. And then it's trades, trades, trades, and some more from Wednesday right now on fantasy baseball today. Scott White, can you tell us about some prospects to stash? Yeah. So not Vladimir Guerrero anymore, right? I think it's fair to say he's graduated from that list finally after he was among my top five for close to a full calendar year. We get to talk about some other things.

Nick Senzel is back to playing in actual minor league games and acclimating himself to Centerfield where Scott Shebler is proving to be no sort of roadblock. I think it'll be a matter of maybe a couple weeks before Senzel takes over at Centerfield and the major league level. That's exciting. Jesus Luzardo still stashing him away. I expect him to when he's ready to go, which will probably be early June, that he'll be in the majors. And the fact that he's missed all this time with injury

kind of takes away some of the workload concerns. They can be a little more free with how they use him the rest of the way. So he's still worth stashing. Jordan Alvarez of the Astros has probably been the most exciting minor league hitter to this point. Seems to be taking another step forward. A good on base guy already 10 home runs this year.

The fact that the Astros are currently operating with like a three-man platoon of Jake Mariznick, Tyler White, and Tony Kemp, none of whom exactly set the world on fire. I think there's an opening for him. It would probably take an injury or willingness to give up on Kemp or White. entirely because neither of them have minor league options so we'll see how that goes carter keboom the longer the nationals delay calling him up the closer trade turner comes to recording returning and the less likely it seems but he is off to a ridiculous start at triple a there's always so a possibility he could debut as a second base minute if brian dozer never

gets his act together and then the new addition replacing Vladimir guerrero in my top five is his AAA teammate, also the son of a Hall of Famer, Kavana Vigio, who is doing, like, he had a big breakout last year in terms of power, started elevating the ball a lot more, high fly ball rate. Well, this time, this year so far, he has subtracted from the ground ball rate just as much. High fly ball rate, but also now a high line drive rate. He's hitting over 400 with as many walks as strikeouts. He's already 24 years old, so, you know, if they don't cut them, call him up soon. It's beginning to cut into his prime.

And rebuilding club, they could obviously find room for Vigio. All right. So Nick Senzel, 66% owned. He's second base eligible. He'll be outfield eligible once he's called up. Jesus Lazzardo, Oakland's starting pitcher. He's 48% own. Houston outfielder, Yorda, Alvarez, who I think is going to be first base eligible. He's listed as a first base. Is that right? He's outfield right now. When he comes up, he could get five games. the first base, but he's primarily an outfielder. Kavon, Biggio, second base eligible Vigio?

Yes. And Carter Key Boom, shortstop for the Nationals, 25% owned. Vigio, just 10% own. Bo Bichet is out at least six weeks with a broken hand. And then we haven't spoken about them since probably Monday, but Boston's second baseman Michael Chavis, or Chavis, not sure. Pittsburgh shortstop, Cole Tucker. They're both 24, 30% owned, and they've done some.

Yes? Yeah, and Chavis has started three of the past four games at second base. There was a question of how much they'd use them at that position. So far a lot. But all of their second basement are hurt. Holtz, Padraea, and Nunez are all on the DIL, and could all be returning soon. But, you know, that doesn't mean. that he won't play.

But do you think Michael Chavis or Cole Tucker are must-owned? Not must-one, but do you think they're under-owned at like 30%? Yeah, probably. I mean, Chavis is kind of exciting. I think of those three on the IL, the only one who would for sure overtake him first starts at second base is Dustin Petroia. I don't think the others necessarily would. But, yeah, we're talking deeper leagues.

in terms of rostering both, I think. Heath, do you care about Cole Tucker, Pittsburgh Shortstop? Not in anything other than a league where I need a middle infielder or an NL-only league. It's not particularly exciting, but you can get kind of desperate in those leagues. And the Padres just called up someone Thai France. He was the, I believe, PCL player of the week with seven home runs in seven games and 42 total bases. that's really good yeah he's not a prospect i assume ty france uh not a high-end one no i mean he's he's kind of a bat first prospect i guess tyler white is a good comparison and and a lot of times

those guys get overlooked on traditional lists and then come and end up being impactful in fantasy i mean branded low another example of that it's it's always a struggle to find a position for him he has gotten some experience at second base, but it doesn't sound like enough that the Padres are willing to play him there with any real consistency. Sounds like he's going to start out as a bench bat, France is, and we'll see where, we'll see where it goes from there. Okay, one prospect email. This is from Patrick at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com.

Between Jesus Lazardo and Forrest Whitley, who is likely to be promoted first? I would still say Lizardo. Yeah, Whitley's been horrible so far, and there's a, few guys he has to pass in the organizational pecking order. Okay. Lizardo it is. Time for some trade talk. Heath has to call an audible on all of his guys.

He was going to tell you to buy high on Domingo Santana and sell high on Chris Paddock. But you didn't tell us your by-low. So let's start with that, Heath. Who's your by-lo? Well, if anybody's listened to this program for the last two years, they can probably guess who my buy-low is. Ian Hap. Like 17 times. I'm sorry, what?

Ian Hap. No, I guess you might have thought I was going to say Travis Shaw, too, but I'm not. I'm actually going to say Matt Carpenter, who is off to another frustrating start to the season, but his average exit velocity is very similar to what it was last year. His strikeout rate is slightly better than what it was last year. His walk rate is very similar to what it was last year. I still think there's a major hot streak coming. He's been terrible so far.

Some people may be really frustrated with him. I try to buy low. All right, Matt Carpenter, Bilo for Heath. Scott, Bailow. I recently wrote a column with 11 Bailos that I thought you could legitimately have a chance of getting. It was excellent. I loved the, it was great column. Good job.

Matt Carpenter was among them. But the guy I led with in that column was Jose Ramirez, who had a good game yesterday. A couple. I forget what he did exactly. Oh, my gosh, it was such a great game. He homered, he stole, he drove in four runs. he, I think he had a double as well. Terrific game.

Yeah. So his strikeout rate, the reason I think you could buy low on him is not just it's a terrible start, but it was a terrible finish last year. It was a terrible spring. It's close to 300 of bats now where he's hit less than 200. And yet his strikeout rate is still among the best in baseball. And digging a little deeper, one of the criticisms of him last year, one of the reasons people said he had such a poor finish is because his numbers against breaking

ball sliders and curve balls were so bad, which was kind of unusual for him. And it hasn't been the issue this year. It's a very small sample, but he's, he has pretty good numbers on both of those pitches. So they're not the reason that his batting average is so low now. It was, he was, he had a zero BAPIP on four seam fastballs. and that was in spite of a 30% line drive rate and the usual exit velocity that he has on four-scene fastball. So clearly a case of just such a statistical anomaly

that it wasn't going to continue. Hopefully yesterday's game doesn't end that chance. Probably not. When I was writing about Vladimir Guerrero's promotion, I was talking about, okay, well, who are you going, even if you wanted to trade him, who are you going to sell high? Who are you going to be able to sell high on him for that, that's actually comparable in terms of upside

that actually feel like is going to deliver more with a great level of confidence. And Jose Ramirez, to me, was the clearest example of that. As a Guerrero owner today, I would offer him up for Ramirez and see what happens. Okay. And so, okay, sorry, last question on Jose Ramirez. He was the third pick in the draft.

If you were drafting again today, when would you take him, Scott? 10th. I know, because that's where I put him in the, latest trade chart. Interesting. Yeah, I was going to say somewhere between 8 to 12th, so I think 10th is a perfectly good answer. Boy, that's lower than I thought. That's lower than I thought. Okay. So, like Christian, you know what you had to Jose Ramirez now? Yeah. All right. So hi, Heath, who do you got? Well, I had Chris Paddock. Right. And you took that one away from me. And I've really struggled ever since then, because I think it was, was it last week that I gave Tim Anderson? Sure.

Tim Anderson is still a very good answer. Okay, Tim Anderson. Let's sell high on Tim Anderson, who has nine stolen bases, like a 440 BABIP, more home runs than he deserves. He's not going to be a top five shortstop. He's not going to be a top 10 shortstop rest of season. Scott, who are we selling high on? Jack Peterson, who is, I think, top top. 20 among hitters and head-to-head scoring so far.

Obviously, 10 home runs is a huge number to have so far. Dodgers have hardly faced any left-handed pitchers. So he's gotten to play much more than we expect him to in the long run. And aside from that, I mean, I think the start is just a little too hot to be sustainable. So if you can, he's 94% own. If you can trade him like he's a must-start outfielder, I think at the long run, he's going to be less than that. Yeah, I've talked about this so many times. that the NL West sees so many left-handed pitchers.

Two years in a row, 17 and 18. Most of the top, you know, seven or eight teams in terms of at-bats against lefties were NL West. Number one this year is San Francisco. Number three is Colorado. Number five is Arizona in terms of at-bats against lefties. The Dodgers are 10th. And who's the other team in the N-L-West that I can't think of right now? San Diego.

They're 26th. Interesting. Okay. So, Jack Peterson, sell high. Jack Peterson. So high. Bye high. Heath, buy high.

Buy high. Buying the start. Acquire. You said Domingo Santana. Do you have anyone else? Can I just say Luis Castillo? Yes. Luis Castillo.

He has still been absolutely dominant. And the walks are a little bit concerning. He is throwing the ball outside of the strike zone more than ever. But it hasn't really matters because everything else has been so good. And even with those walks, he's got a 253 FIP and a 328X FIP. I think Luis Castillo is going to be a top 20 starting pitch. your rest of the season and he may just be top 10. Scott, bye hi.

I'm going to go with Herman Marquez. I feel like one of the reasons why there was so much disagreement about his value at the start of the season, not necessarily on this podcast, but within the industry as a whole, is because his numbers at home, his overall numbers at home last year were not very good. but if you just look at the stretch when he began to break out, which was about, I think, at some point in June for the rest of the season. So basically it comes down to his final seven home starts last year. He had a 190 ERA 104 whip, 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

He made his third home start of the year yesterday. It was his best one, seven innings, three runs, seven strikeouts. It's a really good start. And the previous start he gave up was good except for the fact he gave up 10 hits in five innings. He was little under the weather in that game. Toothake. The first start at home was terrible. So right now the home ERA looks pretty awful as well.

I think there's a chance his owner might be a little concerned about whether or not he's just somebody he can trust on the road. And I don't think he is. I think he's somebody who's must start regardless of where he's pitching. Okay. Yeah. And he had that toothache, Keith, Armand Marquez, so you got to forgive him. That was a bad toothache. I was glad that he went to the dentist and got it fixed.

I'm going to the dentist today. Any pain in your face, your mouth, your ears, your eyes, you know, it's always intense compared to anything else, right? I'm not making that up. I have a hard time believing that a major league pitcher doesn't just take something and not feel the toothache. like they're plenty of medicine for this and he has access to whatever medicine he wants yeah right whatever he wants whatever he wants just just takes it like why was a tooth bothering you during the game

take some medicine well he hadn't he hadn't gotten it checked out yet he's got a doctor in the clubhouse with him a lot of sweet doc my two hurts he was keeping it a secret he said he was keeping it a secret because he didn't want to be you know not not pitch he wanted to make sure they were going to tell him to skip his start because he's two-thirds he's a hero leave armand marquez alone a lot of sweet to the club house a conspiracy all right so uh i have not done a good job pacing the show we have a lot to get to from yesterday we won't get to all of it that's okay daniel murphy's back gary sanchez is back he went over four with four strikeouts the yankees sent chad green to triple a chad green has a 1643

r a two previous seasons he had 103 strikeouts 94 strikeouts was one of the better relievers in baseball Freddie Galvis sat with a sore hamstring. Why does that matter? Because he had the longest streak of, longest active streak of games played, consecutive games played 349 in a row. Brandon Nimo day-to-day, he actually pinch hit yesterday. Anthony Rendon did not, but he was available to pinch hit, so he'll probably be back tomorrow.

Anthony Rendon. Hunter Dozers missed two straight games with a back issue. The Brewer signed Geo Gonzalez to a one-year, $2 million deal. He had a 21-E-R-A in five starts with the Brewers. Only one quality start in those five starts. Do you have any leagues in which you'd be picking up Geo Gonzalez? You'd be picking them up in an L-only leagues.

Yeah, yeah. Mostly this just makes me think unhappy thoughts for Brandon Woodruff. Okay. Tyler Skaggs is going to start against the Kansas City Royals on Friday. So what are you going to do with Tyler Skaggs on Friday when he comes off the D.L?

I'm going to Tyler Skag. I didn't know what to play it. I knew I was going to play it. But, you know, are you going to Tyler Skies? I wanted to say it, even though that's not what I'm going to do. I'll probably wait. Yeah, wait, yeah. Okay.

Tampa Bay infielder, Joey Wendell broke his wrist. Dustin Bidroia taught Eduardo Rodriguez to grip, how to grip his curveball differently. And Rodriguez had a great start yesterday. Pedro Stob's car was broken into? No, stolen. And then involved in a police chase. And then he got a save. He's the closer, by the way.

He's got the last three scenes. No, no. you got the order of events wrong there it was stolen he was dealing with it till about the fourth inning when he told police i may have to pitch got the save was still dealing with it after the game like it was that whole thing was going on as the game was going on and harmon marquez is worried about a two thing and elvis andrews a little concerned about Elvis andrews because he he heard his hand two days of i guess three days ago now then he played and then he sat yesterday with the hand issues so So it sort of popped back up on him. Double Dongs from yesterday's games. Tell me if any of these guys made any type of impression on you.

Nomar Mazzara. I really feel like until the end of time, Nomar Mizarra will be over-owned. He's 86% owned. Catell Mar-O-Bapo. Great. They're both against Ritees. Cotel Marte, he's 88% owned.

And Andrelton Simmons, he's 68% owned. Yeah, I'm, I'm, having a hard time thinking this is going to be the breakout for Mizarro. Fly ball rate is still as low as ever. He is hitting the ball very hard. But, you know, the fact that it hadn't translated till much production until yesterday, I need to see a lot more to think anything, anything's really changed there. Okay.

We can move on from that segment. Heath, unless you have anything to say about Marte or Simmons or Mizarra. I do not. Great. Let's go to two-up, two guys who, had good games yesterday, have been on a little bit of a streak. Shinsu Chu, 64% O. And I just want to tell you where Shinsu Chu has finished in his last three healthy seasons, 2015, 17, and 18. He has been the number 18, 25, and 26 outfielder in points

leagues, number 21, number 30, and number 39 in Roto. Chews a lot better in points leagues. But he leads off against righties. He sits against lefties, so you got to check the matchups. He's, you know, I picked him up in a 14-team points league. I think Chu's solid there. I really, I don't get it, and I've talked about it a lot. I think Shinsu Chu should be universally owned,

and when he's healthy, he should be started unless he has like two plus lefties coming that week. You start him. And so I don't I don't get it. You just read the numbers of where he's finished. He is a very good outfielder in really both

formats as long as it's not a three outfielder categories league. And it's ridiculous how underone he is. You said he sits against lefties at him? He is set against three of five lefties. Three of five lefties. Yeah, you're right. He did start against the most recent one.

So that could change if he continues to hit well, I think. Yeah, I just don't think he'll hit well against lefties, but sure. Chad Pinder. He might be the Rangers second best hitter. Chad Pinder. No, he's there. Elvis Andrews is better hitter than him. Come on.

He's definitely a better hitter than Elvis Andrews. Are you kidding me? Have you not seen Elvis Andrews is 100% back? As long as he's healthy. Elvis Andrews is my cell high. If you're in a league with Adam and you have Elvis Andrews, make him an awesome. He was hurt last year. Come on.

I'm with Adam on this. He's already equaled last year's steel total and his halfway to last year's home run total. Just hope he's healthy. That's all. Chad Pinder, 33% owned. Might get some more playing time. He's mostly hitting singles, I guess. A little bit of pop there.

Any interest in Chad Pinder, 33% of? Has the playing time been any better for him? Because that's been the issue for me. You know, those 15-team Roto leagues I'm unsure, I have interest in Pender. But anything shallower than that, yeah, it looks like it's pretty inconsistent still, how often he plays. Okay. Yeah, the article today, that this morning was like, Chad Pinder might be playing his way into more playing time. So just keep an eye on it.

I don't think it's a must add. It's weird, though, what's been going on with him, Simeon, and Chapman. All three of their strikeout rates are way, way down. I have to feel like there's something behind that, considering they're all on the same team, but I haven't seen anything yet. Yeah, I was going to talk about Simeon today. Kind of ran out of time, and I know we're going to talk about him tomorrow, because it's the end of the month, and I want to look at the top five at each position,

and I believe Simeon will be there at shortstop. All right, I'm going to fire out some names. you and just give me some quick thoughts. Eduardo Rodriguez, six innings, one run, seven strikeouts against Detroit. Eduardo Rodriguez. He was on that by-low list, we talked about. He's throwing his, he's always been a two-pitch pitcher,

fastball change up, their good pitches, mixed in a cutter slider hybrid last year, used it more this year, and it's been more effective this year. It's made all his pitches more effective. His swinging strike rate is through the roof. And now that he's put together three good starts in a row, definitely feeling Eduardo Rodriguez right now.

I don't disagree with anything it was just said. Eduardo Rodriguez is one of those guys. He has three good starts in a row, and I just start feeling like, okay, here it comes. He's going to get hurt or he's going to give up 12 runs in a third of an inning. And the fact that he doesn't pitch deep into games is less of an issue now, I think, because so many pitchers that you might be starting don't pitch deep into games.

So it's just kind of a thing in baseball now. Like one of the next guys we're going to talk about, Vince Velasquez. Tell me if you want any of these fringy starting pitchers. Jordan Liles, bad start yesterday. Vince Velasquez, pretty good start, but only five innings. Only one start of six innings this year. He does get Detroit next week. That's good for Velazquez.

C.C. Sabathia, Tanner Roark. Again, the four fringy starting pitchers, Jordan Liles, Velazquez, Sabathia, and Roark. The funny thing with Velazquez is how, like, he had, was so bad last year whenever runners got on base and went through this whole mental coach thing and was trying to overcome what I guess was probably some performance anxiety of some sort. He's got a 96% strand rate so far this year. That's not going to last.

But I am the most interested in him of this group because I still think that he has, like he has legitimate, very good starting pitcher upside. Well, he's, I mean, it may be a low strand rate, but it's a sub one whip. So it's not like there's been many runners to let in, even if it was a high strand rate. I think this is intentional what the Phillies are doing with him. Also a guy who has a limited arsenal. They're not letting him face the third time through the order much at all. And it's led to great ratios.

It's probably going to maximize his ability, but it also, of course, limits its ceiling. Yeah, the wins could be harder to come by, kind of like what we were talking about with Chris Paddock. Velasquez, Lyle, Sabathia, Roark, anyone else, just that you guys, would want no okay not really i mean lials we lials coming off bad start there was yeah i mean i flirted with lials but it's you know i i don't know that the upside justifies the kind of downside he showed yesterday that was a big fat fool jub oh yeah we haven't done that in a long time uh michael givins is 22 percent oh and he finally got his first save of the year and pedro in a bad outing yeah well well two two innings one

run, not that bad. Pedro Strope, 46% owned, and he has three straight saves for the Cubs. So he and Minter. Minter got to save yesterday, too. Like, they're on good teams. They're available. Strope and Minter. There you go. You might even say Strope is a steel right now. Strope is a, oh, the car. Yeah, the car. All right, Deep Leagues. Merrill Kelly.

Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright have almost identical ERAs Merrill Kelly, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright. There's also Drew Pomeranz. Jeffrey Rodriguez, Felix Pena, and John Means. Those last three, Jeffrey Rodriguez, Felix, Pena, and John Means are like barely owned.

Whereas Merrill Kelly, Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright, and Drew Pomerantz have some ownership. Do you guys have any interest in the names I mentioned? I am not totally, without hope for Felix Hernandez. I'm not rushing out to pick him up. Oh, no. But he was right there with,

um, with Paddock in a pitcher's duel yesterday. Seven and eight strikeouts. I think what he's figured out is that with the reduced fastball, his change up, which had always been his money maker, maker just isn't as effective as it used to be. So he started throwing his curveball much more at the expense of the changeup.

And he's had out of five. opportunities. He's had three pretty good starts, one great start. So I'm keeping an eye on him at the very least. I'm also kind of interested in John means because he seems to have a really good change-up in terms of getting swings and misses on. I had 17 swinging strikes yesterday, 9 on the change-up. Also had 17 swinging strikes in a long relief appearance earlier this season. We need to see more opportunities from him because he's been used like a fifth-starter swing man type. but I'm

I'm keeping an eye on. He was somebody that caught my eye last night and like just looking at what he's done so far this year in the limited work he's had he looks extremely interesting. The swinging strike rate is out of this world and he had really good control the last few years in the minor leagues.

So definitely keep him on the radar. Okay, 3% own John Means. Orioles pitcher. He has made seven appearances. Three of them have been starts. And then two hitters. I think one of them is pretty interesting. Eric Thames and Jung Ho Gong.

Look, Eric Thames might just be their starting first basement. He'll probably sit against lefties. But I don't know. 12% owns seems a little low. Jung Ho Gong has three home runs in his last seven games. He's 17% owned. Final thoughts on that is the last thing we're talking about today, so make it awesome.

Thames is certainly the hot hand play for the Brewers right now, and I can understand them going with him. He's got like a 35% strikeout rate, though. I think in the long run they still want Aguilar to get right and to be the guy there. Obviously, he hasn't started in three games. I'm hopeful it's just because they're giving him a chance to work on a swing. Both counsel and his hitting coach, both Craig Counsel and Aguilar's hitting coach expressed optimism recently that he would come around. So I'm not getting too excited about Thames.

Yeah, I think I would actually rather own Gong, and he's been really bad for a lot of this year. Actually, he's got a 36% strikeout rate, and that's a better strikeout rate than Eric Thames has so far. And he's got like a 180 babbib. So it has been all home runs and nothing else, but some of that's bad luck. That's the end of our show for today. No grade the trade, I apologize, but only eight games on the schedule tonight. And obviously the NFL draft tonight. Make sure you watch it on CBS Sports HQ, everybody.

So hopefully we'll have time to grade your trades on tomorrow's show. Thanks so much for listening for Scott and Heath. I'm Adam. see tomorrow on fantasy baseball today.