Fantasy Baseball Today - 04/27 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Buy High or Sell High?

Episode Date: April 27, 2017

With players like Ryan Zimmerman, Freddie Freeman, Luis Severino and others off to great starts we're wondering if they are legit sell high candidates or if you should buy high and get these guys on your roster ... Our thoughts on Lance McCuller's walks, the lack of strikeouts from Cole Hamels and Dylan Bundy, Scott Schebler's power and Delino DeShields' potential ... Players you should add now before it's too late, and we're grading your trades! ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Get ready for the NFL drafts. Well, we still want to talk a little fantasy baseball. Welcome to fantasy baseball today. Hey, are you hiring with ZipRecruiter.com? You can post your job to 100 plus job sites, including social media networks like Facebook and Twitter, all with a single click. Try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. For free at ZipRecruiter.com slash strike. Adam Azer, Heath Cummings, Chris Towers.

We have an NFL draft show on the website and on the app I'll tell you about in a little bit. I want to start with a game called, Hey, Real Quick. Hey, real quick, would you rather have James Paxton or U. Darvish? U. Darvish. I would still rather have U. Darvish, but it's hard not to view James Paxton as like a top 15 pitcher right now. He's pretty good. He's been incredible. He's not quite left-handed Noah Cindergarde, but he's not far off.

right now. It's definitely a lot harder now than it was after his last start. What was it? His last start wasn't great? He had a bad start. Oh, yeah. He just had one bad start in like his last eight months of pitching. I love the innings too. 39 strikeouts of six walks and 32 and a third. Darvish is off to a good start as well. 13 walks, a little more wild. 31 strikeouts, 32 and two thirds. But yeah, Paxton's really exciting. I think at this point, real quick, who would you rather have James Paxson or Cole, Hamels. James Paxton.

I already have him a couple, like five spots ahead of Cole Hamels. I did that after the last start. Yeah. After Hamels last start? After Paxton's last start? It's a bad one. Yep. I've been thoroughly unimpressed by Cole Hamels.

Has he had a, how many good starts has he had? He's not striking anybody out? It's the weirdest thing. He's had some pretty good starts in terms of run prevention, but I think he has 15 strikeouts in like 36 innings or something. Yeah, I, um, before last night. had Hamels at 15 and Paxton at 19? Swip him.

I may... Hamels to 19, Paxton, to 15. Yeah, it may go like 17 and 18 or something. They're very, very close. I just went to our CBSports.com MLB player page where you can search for players, and I went to type in Cole Hamels, because I thought he had a good ERA, and it's 303.

But none of the search results are coming out. What's going on? I typed in Chris Towers instead of, Cole Hamels. You are not in the database, Chris. Mistake. I am a worse pitcher than Cole Hamill. All right. Hey, we got a fun show today. I do promise we are going to grade some trades at the end of the show. We're going to do something called buy high or sell high. I give you a guy who has been playing well. You tell me, is he a sell high candidate, or should we actually buy high and trick people into thinking that they are selling high on a good player? The Thames Watch is back, and it's a scary one. News and notes.

stock falling on some struggling players. And I've got a few guys who are pretty widely available that I think you should go pick up right now. Maybe. I'll ask you guys that I think at least you should consider going to pick up right now. But let's start with... Wait, did you say it's a scary Thames watch? Yeah. So it's a Scaric Thames watch?

Nice. Nice. It wasn't nice. It was bad. Yeah, but I'm being nice. So, you know, I'm nice. It was terrible, but I'm being nice. buy high or sell high right now guys on ryan zimmerman the number three first baseman in points behind thames and goldschmidt the number two first baseman in rhodo behind only eric thames is zimmerman more of a buy high or a sell high i would say probably neither one i'm not buying ryan zimmerman from anyone i'm not buying into this production that he's going to be a top five or even top ten first baseman

I also think that it's very difficult when you've got a player that's 32 years old and has a pretty established track record to get somebody else to buy into what he's done so far. So he's probably somebody you ride high. Okay. Just hang on to him, especially in a Roto League, where you can use him as a corner infielder. I think he's a huge value. But this is what we hope to see from Ryan Zimmerman.

The exit velocity is still elite, and he has improved his launch angle, and we're seeing the results of that. Okay, buy high or sell high on Jose Ramirez, the number two second baseman in fantasy. He's also a top five third baseman, and he's batting 320 with five home runs and two steals. Also, 18 RBIs for Jose Ramirez. You just want to compare him the last year when Ramirez was the number nine third baseman in points, number 11 in rotisserie. he is better 3.95 fantasy points per game compared to 3.13 fantasy points per game. But look, his Babbup is actually lower. It's only 305. He is hitting more fly balls. Home run to fly ball ratio is crazy high. It's early. But Jose Ramirez, is he a buy high? Is he a sell high?

Is he what you said about Zimmerman? You tell me. He's really good. I'm riding him. I don't know if I'd be able to buy him. but if I could for a reasonable price, I would. I think he's really good. I've moved Ramirez into my top 10 at second base. So I don't quite buy what he's doing, but for the most part, I do. So I'd say buy high. Okay, Jose Ramirez over Evern Longoria now, clearly?

Yes. It's been for a while for me. Kyle Seeger or Jose Ramirez? Kyle Seeger dealing with this little hip issue now, I think. I still have Jose Ramirez number nine at third base behind Kyle Seeger and Miguel Seno. Okay. All right, but we like Jose Ramirez.

He is backing it up. Buy high or sell high on Freddie Freeman, who is batting 388 with a 500 on base, a 799 slugging, with 15 walks and 15 strikeouts in addition to seven homers. Only 9 RBIs somehow for Freddie Freeman with a 38 batting average and seven homers. Well, he's the place for the Braves. I know, but that's still insane. Buy high or sell high, Freddie Freeman. I'm pretty close to buying it. It's a little bit of the Daniel Murphy situation where I didn't buy the breakout.

The fact that it's continuing, it'd be kind of dumb to not change my opinion. I would still rather have Murphy than Freeman. I think he's right there. An interesting one is if you've got Miguel Cabrero, would you take Freddie Freeman for Cabrera? and I have moved Freeman ahead of Cabrera in my rankings right now. Ooh, you know, they were three and a half fantasy points apart last year. They had very, very simple seasons. Yeah, one's hurt.

Two decades younger and not currently hurt. So can we sum it up by saying if we were drafting again today, Freddie Freeman would be a late second round pick in a 12-team league? Because that's when, you know, like Incarnacion and Cabrera and Murphy were going. No, not for me. I'm going to take a mea culpa on this one. I was right there with Heath as a big Freddie Freeman skeptic. I don't think Heath has changed his mind quite yet.

No, what I was going to say was I would now agree with where he was. I was questioning him going in the third round, and I would now agree with that. I think that was correct. I was wrong, but I'm not going to say he should have been a second round pick. Yeah, like he's a, I think he's pretty close to an elite power. power hitter at this point, and that's the only thing that was missing from his game. Okay. Well, Freeman's also a great start, and I wonder, I think right now you're probably taking Freeman over Encarnazion?

I have not moved Encarnacion behind Freeman or Murphy. Nope. And I don't think that you trade Freeman for Encarnation. That's not really a good sell. But if you trade Freeman for Encarnacion and, you know, a Danny Salazar type player, maybe it's worth it then. If you still believe in Encarnacion, which it appears you guys do. Is that fair to- I still believe in Encarnation?

But I would not give up Freeman for Encarnacion. And I wouldn't give up Encarusanne for Freeman. But if you could give up Freeman to the Encarnacion owner and also get like a number, like a high-end number three starting pitcher back. you know, someone around, you know, top 25 pitcher. Yeah, I'd do it. You'd do that. In a heartbeat. Freeman at a top 25 pitcher for Encarnacion, yeah, I would do that.

No, other way around. Okay. Encarnacion and a top 25 pitcher for Freeman. And I think it's realistic. And I think, you know, there's risk there because Encarnacion is getting up in age, and he had the higher strikeout rate last year, and he's off to a terrible start, but he wasn't off to a great start last year either. You know.

But, okay, I'm trying to throw out realistic trade scenarios. I don't think that's an azer trade. I think you could probably pull that off. I think people are very disappointed and probably nervous with Ancarnaustione. Speaking of realistic trade offers, I know that you're doing a marvelous job of your fast start in the editorial league, but you have a terrible outfield and a terrible second basement, and I have too many of both, and you have a bunch of starting pitching. Would you make me an offer, please?

I will make you an offer. I've made him offers, and he just ignores them or declines them and doesn't, counteroffer. It will involve... I like that strategy. Thank you. It will involve you giving me Mani Machado.

Make an offer for Mani Machado. He is available. Okay. I've got like 17 second and third basement and no pitchers. I don't have a terrible outfield. It's in trouble now because of the Hanager injury. But I'd just say this.

No. No. Michael Conforto is your number two outfielder, and Hanager is your number three right now? I have Springer on the bench. Okay. So Michael Conforto is your number three. No. I have Springer, Schwerterter.

Berber and Brantley in a 14-team league. That's a good outfield. So you're just not seeing the whole picture here. I would say this. I like trading. Trading's really fun. I think trading's probably the most fun part of fantasy baseball. Maybe drafting is if you're off to a good start, you don't have to make trades. I like my team, so don't trade just for the sake of trading here.

Don't let Heath try to bully you into that either. Let's go back to buy high or sell high. Guys, I'm starting to buy it. I'm starting to buy it. like a homer, but man, Louis Severino, two and one with a three ERA, four walks, 33 strikeouts in 27 innings. And he just did a great job against Boston without Dustin Bidroyo on a cold, rainy night. But still, the change-up looked pretty good.

I'm starting to buy it. I think Louis Severino is much more of a buy-high than a sell-high. Here, I benched him this week. I did not think the matchups against Boston and Baltimore were going to work out for him. I was still skeptical. If you do it against Boston, it's hard to keep ignoring. And the big thing for him is his fastball velocity is up about three quarters of a mile per hour over last April. But his change-up and slider velocity are both down pretty significantly.

And that seems like a really big deal. That's a great thing for him. I've mentioned this many times he had, I think, the least amount of separation between his fastball and his slider in the American League last year, at least at one point in this season. He's definitely more of a pitcher now. Can you tell me how many change-ups Severino through yesterday? Do you have that? I looked it up last night.

I can find it really quickly. I think it was around 10. Do you think Severino is like a top-40 pitcher? I will answer that question in the coming days after I do my rankings. But it's possible. I think I would sell him being a top-40 pitcher. If I could get that type of value for him, I'd be selling high. but he is a huge asset as a find likely off the waiver wire, especially in leagues, points

leagues. He threw 12 changeups last night, averaged 88 miles per hour with him, 10 miles per hour less than his fastball. The separation between the two was about 6 miles per hour last year. Excellent. All right. Buy high or sell high, Avi Garcia, 73% own, still available. Another homer yesterday. Still selling.

Yeah, this is one where there's just, there's no obvious. change in his game, and so it seems just like a hot streak. Is it possible that the obvious change is that he's just in better shape? It's certainly possible, but he's not hitting the ball harder than league average in terms of exit velocity. Okay. None of his batted ball data is really any different. He still hits too many fly ball or ground balls, so I don't see any reason to buy it.

Well, some of his batted ball data is different. He's got a 471 bat. Okay, that's Avi Garcia. Good, we needed at least one sell high in this group. And finally, buy high or sell high on Aaron Judge, who is now batting 281 with seven home runs, seven walks and 18 strikeouts, two doubles in a triple in 18 games. I really appreciate that all of the gigantic hulking sluggers are off to good starts this season because they're all my large adult sons. And they make me proud. Well, that's very nice, Chris.

Yes. Well, are we buying Aaron Judge here? What do you think? His swinging strike rates down to 10%. That's an elite mark for a power hitter. That's something that, like, John Carlos Stanton's never come close to. I'd buy him as a fourth or fifth outfielder. Okay.

I think he's in my top 50. Would you rather have Aaron, Judge, or Yassio Pueig? I might have them literally right next to each other. I've got it very close. I will still... I've got Pueg quite a bit higher. I have Judge at 52. I need to move

them up. Also go with Pugge. I'm looking at some outfielder's that you have ahead of judge in your rankings, and I'm going to recommend you move judge ahead of them. Hunter Pence. I just moved him to 41. Are these points leagues or Roto leagues? I'm looking at points, but I'll go

to Roto. Roto, I think, would be a better way to look at it. That's his best format. Okay. Uh, then in that case, uh, ooh, it's a little harder. If what we're seeing right now is real. What? Jason Hayward or Judge? I would rather have Judge.

Oh, I'm going with Hayward for sure. Oh, how about Yasmani Tomas or Judge? Tomas. Judge. All right. I won't, uh, Manuel Margo or Judge. Judge. Judge.

Okay. So, you know, he's definitely worth owning him. Also, Manuel Margo. Manuel Hargo, that's right. Nomar Mazzara or Aaron, Judge. Mazara. Let me tell you something about Mizarra. Zero extra base hits against lefties this year.

He is three for 21. He sat against a lefty yesterday. Last year, two extra base hits in 111 at bats against lefties. He's kind of... He kind of just had a bunch of RBI early, but he hasn't been very good. Do you want to know the players that I think you should pick up now before it's too late?

Absolutely. Okay, well, you can't find out unless you go to our website tonight. 7.55 p.m. Eastern on CBS Sports.com, the CBS Sports app and all streaming devices. We've got Nick Costos hosting with Brady Quinn, Pete Priscoe, and Jason Lockenforah. Jamie and Heath are going to provide fantasy analysis. This is for the NFL draft. If you're, like me, tired of the NFL draft coverage that you've been seeing for, like, decades, it's all the same. Try CBSports.com, try the app, any streaming devices.

You're going to get fantasy analysis from it. That's pretty exclusive. And Brady Quinn and Pete and Nick are going to do it. Just going to kill it. We also have Will Brinson, Luke Rogers, John Beeson, DJ Williams, other Miami Hurricanes, perhaps. And it's really great stuff. I watch every year, and I encourage you to do the same. So that's starting at 7.55 p.m. Eastern.

And it's all weekend, by the way, we have coverage of the draft, live coverage during the NFL draft. All right. So Byron Buckson is 48% owned. Should we be picking him up before it's too late? Now, granted, he's 48% owned. But three for his last seven with five walks in his last three games and only one strikeout. Maybe it's just three games, but should we take the chance on Buxed now in case this is something? Well, you guys are welcome.

I finally dropped him. And so that's why this has happened. I wouldn't do it. For me, the answer is no. I'm not really that interested. Look, it depends on what your team looks like, which isn't a particularly helpful piece of advice. But if you've got an open roster spot, this is still a super talented player. Yeah, it's true. It's true.

Right. It depends on what you're dropping, I guess. Would you rather have Conforto or Buxton? Conforto. Would you rather have Bellinger or Baxter? Bellinger. He hasn't failed yet. Well, he failed yesterday. O for five with three strikeouts. but facing Quato and actually leading off for the Dodgers. All right, so that's the first guy. Here are two more that I think are very interesting. Archie Bradley.

It seems like Shelby Miller could very well need Tommy John surgery. He's getting a third opinion this time from an elbow doctor whose name I can pronounce, Dr. James Andrew. And it seems like Godley is kind of a stopgap. Bradley could be in the rotation. He has been amazing in the bullpen with a 126 ERA, three-walk, 17 strikeouts, 14 and a third. In two seasons as a starter, his ERA is over five. So, you know, Bradley's 18% owned. The line out of Shields, I picked them up in the scam league and the Rejects League. Did you ask Scott about that? I did. But if he had not responded, I would have made an

executive decision anyway, because I've just got this hunch. And reading the papers this morning, it seems like they've got this hunch that if the Rangers want to jumpstart their offense, their lead-off hitters have been terrible. They've got to get the liner to Shields in the lineup. He let off. He went two for three. He walked three times. He's stole two bases in three attempts. He scored three runs. Now, they put up a 14 spot. Not buying it. I'm buying it as, like, take a chance here.

So Archie Bradley and Delano DeShields are very available. Are you buying either of them? Like for DeShields, if you were in a... My problem is I have two daily transaction leagues, and they're both two of my most shallow leagues. If I was in like a 14-team daily transaction league, then I could absolutely get excited about Delano DeShields. But even in a 12-team daily transaction league, I don't think there's going to be a situation where Delano DeShields becomes an everyday player.

You mean daily lineups? Yes. Okay. Not like add drops every day. It's the same. Those leagues are both. Well, no, because you've got the five outfield or auction league. I thought about picking up DeShields in that league yesterday, but I didn't have anyone that I really wanted to drop.

But that's a problem. It's a roto league. I very rarely have someone that I want to drop. Especially if he's going to be on the short end of a platoon split. I don't know that he is going to be, though. Who are they going to platoon him with? Because, well, okay, Mazarra sat yesterday, and Rua. No, Omar Mazar is not sitting against right-handed pitchers.

No, but why would- Shih Tzu Choo's going to play against Ritey's? So where is the Shields going to play against Rite's? Left field. Over. Over ProFar and Rua. Maybe. I don't, I don't really think that there's, like, we thought this.

coming into the spring, and then they just completely shut them out of the rotation for a while? I know, and their replacements have been terrible. Like Carlos Gomez was leading off. He's not, he didn't yesterday. Rua is a lefty spout. Lefty hitting, you know, he hits lefties. ProFar's been bad. Chew D.D.Hs.

And Beltrae might be out another month, by the way. He got bad news on his calf. So I think there's an opportunity here, and I think it makes sense to give this guy a shot because he can get on base. He can walk. and when he walks, he steals. So, I don't know. I just want to throw it out there.

He's 9%-0 and you guys do what you want. What about Archie Bradley? Do you think he could be successful in the rotation? I think he's a one-pitch pitcher, and that can work in the bullpen. It cannot work as a starter. His velocity's way up. That makes the fastball play up even more in the bullpen. But I have trouble seeing him as a starting pitcher.

What about Alex Wood, who was flirting with a no-hitter yesterday? and he threw only 77 pitches. They don't seem comfortable letting Wood go that deep into games yet, but six scoreless innings, one hit, one walk, five strikeouts at San Francisco. I don't even know if he's got a rotation spot, but should we be picking up Alex Wood he's 22% owned? Yeah, I think after that type of outing, we believe he has upside. Especially when he's throwing three miles an hour harder than he was last year

and five miles an hour harder than two years ago. He is the guy on this list that I would be most excited about picking up. Yep. Alex Wood. But who would they bump from the rotation? Because they've got six guys now. They've got Kershaw, Maeda, Ureus, McCarthy, Ryu, and Wood. I kind of think, and I hate the six-man rotation.

I kind of think the Dodgers are in a position where they should maybe use it. Because Maeda is much better with extra rest and has shown that over and over again. You've got Urius, who you want to limit his in. I'm going to stop you right now. I don't think they would ever do that because they're not going to make Clayton Kershaw wait another day every turn. Okay, well, then just do a six-man rotation except Kershaw pitches on normal rest. Okay, well, that could work. Because McCarthy and Riu, how long are you expecting your arm to stay together?

That's the big thing for me is that McCarthy and Rew have not shown that they can stay healthy over the last couple of years. So I would, you're going to have a rotation spot at some point. I thought it was an interesting night. I was pretty active last night. I picked up Alex Cobb for two starts next week because I think in good matchups you can be okay with him. And guys, I got to be honest. And I picked up the Shields and I picked up Alex Wood in separate leagues. I got to be honest with you, I'm starting to see now that fantasy baseball in 2017 is looking and feeling to me like fantasy baseball in 2016,

where I'm seeing more attractive hitters on the waiver wire than pitchers. I'm struggling to get pitching depth and pick up. up guys I like. You know, at the beginning of the season, I was, oh, I'm picking up this gun, picked up this guy. A lot of them haven't panned out, like Alex Cobb. So I don't know. I'm, I don't know what the numbers are saying right now in terms of runs and home runs and all that, but I'm not feeling good about Waverwire pitchers at the moment. The thing is, if the league-wide ERA is up, which is the same thing as it was last year. Then a replacement level pitcher is a worse pitcher. Yeah. I just mean like fantasy baseball the way I started playing, I've been playing since I started

hosting this podcast seven, eight years now. It always was like, not going to invest that much in pitcher because I can get them on waivers. I can always stream pitchers. I can always pick them up. I don't really feel that way anymore. I feel like hitters are more streamable now. But, like, that's only because you see a guy with a 3.7 ERA and you don't get excited about him. But a 3.70 RA in 2016 or 2017 is a lot more valuable than it was.

as seven years ago. Okay, that's a good point, but you still have, I think you have more separation now between the must-starts and the streamers. Maybe. I don't know. I just, I haven't really, I looked at waivers for pitchers, and, like, I picked up Joe Musgrove because I just want to take a shot on someone with some upside that could maybe turn it around, but it's, it's ugly out there.

It feels like, and, and, like, the point I want to make is, I don't really want to trade pitching for hitting. If I have depth at starting pitcher, like Heath, you just mentioned it, the editorial league, right? Right. You, I have great pitching depth there. You want some of it. I don't want necessarily trade Jacob de Grom

for Manny Machado. I feel like I have to. I don't even know if you would take that, but I wouldn't feel great about it because I feel like I'd really be lacking in pitching, and it's just easier to get hitting than it is pitching. Then we, then we should have had Manny Machado as a third round pick and Jacob de Grom was the first.

No, it's just, it's the way it ends up playing out once you see the landscape, you know, and look, I might be dumb. I think it would be ridiculous not to trade Jacob de Grom for Manny Machado. I agree in a vacuum when I look at my teams and I say, what would my team actually look like on a week-to-week basis if I didn't have a stud pitcher I could rely on? It's a little scary, so, yeah, look, I would trade DeGron for Machado. I would. Four out of five weeks, you're all.

only going to have one start from him anyway. Yeah, Machado's more valuable. There's no question. But my general overall point is I would overvalue pitching right now in trades in most of my leagues based on the landscape that I'm seeing, at least reliable pitching. Yeah, I think part of that is that a bunch of guys we thought were reliable aren't reliable. And that's kind of the whole thing with pitching. Yeah. A guy who's reliable on Monday stops being reliable five days later.

Danny Duffy. Is Danny Duffy a reliable starting pitcher now? Marcus Trulman. But is Manny Machado a reliable hitter? Yes. He's been terrible. There's a big difference between three bad weeks as a hitter. You're going start by start, though.

Maybe I just misinterpreted what you were saying. No, but I'm asking, like, I have Danny Duffy as a top 20 pitcher. I don't feel like he's reliable. So I think top 20 outfielders are much more reliable than top 20 pitchers, even the good ones. Okay. All right. I don't want to belabor the point. I just thought it would be an interesting topic.

And it was. Time for the Thames watch. Uh-oh. Eric Thames left with a hamstring injury. Hamstring tightness. He expects to play on Friday. You know what his problem was, guys, according to Craig Counsel. He's so damn good that he got hurt.

Counsel said he's been on base too much. He's too much base running and the hamstring got tight. He didn't hit me home runs yesterday. Now, here's my question. I wasn't on the podcast yesterday, but I made like seven or eight different trade offers for Eric Thames on Tuesday. And fair offers, right? I think so. Not either offers.

Mostly very fair offers. All of them were rejected within the hour. Really? Only one person counteroffered, and it was a ridiculous. counteroffer. Yeah, I wrote about this. Right. Like, if you have Eric Thames, it's really hard to justify trading him because I, in the, I

released the trade chart yesterday. And I have him in like the Hanley-Remirez Jean-Sugar range. And... The Hanley-Ramera's throwing in there is different when you say it. The Gene-Sigura, you know, I think Jacob de Grom is in the same range, or Carlos Martinez. Right. And so

it's a lot of guys who have high upside, just like Eric Thames has shown. But they're also risky. You couldn't possibly trade Eric Thames for Gene Seguer. That would be a dumb trade to make. But do you now, do I now go back and make slightly worse versions of those same trade offers? Nobody, I think Eric Thames is nearly untradable. It's pretty interesting.

I don't think he should be untradable. I think, I just, you can't get an, you probably cannot get enough in return for Eric Thames to justify moving him right now. I mean, the names you mentioned, I don't know that I trade him for Carlos Marseman. Martinez, I'd certainly trade Thames for Jacob de Grom, and I'd probably trade Thames for Gene Seguerah. I mean, Gene Seguer is a pretty good player. Yeah, Gene Segras, but he also has downside. He does. We haven't seen downside from Thames. And no, he did not Homer yesterday, but this Thame Watch would not be complete without mentioning.

He did walk twice, didn't he? Yeah, I got on base three times. Amazing. And this has been today's Stey's Watch for Fantasy Baseball today. I'm Adam Azer. The big news. Jose Al Tuvei could be back in the lineup. Today, told you about Adrian Beltray, not making good progress, excuse me.

Mitch Hanigur and Felix Hernandez are both on the DL. Do you think this guarantees fairly regular playing time for Taylor Motter? Yep. Okay. Jose Abraeu, day-to-day with a strained, sprained hip flexor? Strained or sprained? I don't know. I'm going to get strained.

Yeah, I don't know. Yeah. Kyle Seeger sat again. David Dahl will take batting practice soon. But Norris got his third six. He's 12% owned. We don't have a timetable for Bedrosian. When I first read about his injury,

they thought it would only be 10 days, but if you need to take a shot, Bonoras three saves in Bedrosian's absence. Sean Mania left last night start with shoulder tightness. He said he's dealt with that before. He did not pitch well. We don't recommend dropping Sean Minia, do we? Not yet.

No. And Pittsburgh keeps on making history. They called up Gift and Go-Pay after nine years in the minors, and they demoted DeVitis. Sorry, you don't know how to pronounce that one. Nevarouskas. Nevarouskas. Well, yeah, I know the last name I knew.

So the pirates called up the first African-born player in baseball history and demoted the first baseball player born and raised in Latvia. So very international. I would expect a Disney movie by like the summer of 2019. We got to talk about players whose stock might be falling, struggling players, There's a lot of people asking about Bregman and Lou Croy. We'll talk about them in just a second, but I've recently learned how great of a website ziprecruiter.com is, whether you're looking for a job or if you're hiring. But if you happen to be hiring, you're going to love the free offer we have for you.

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Whose stock is falling? Alex Bregman. Is his stock falling? I don't think so. Maybe because a couple of people have been really good and have passed him. But his plate discipline has been outstanding. His swinging strike rate is way down. His line drive rate is still there.

He's not hitting the ball exceptionally hard. but it's not that much off where he was last year. He's hitting too many ground balls. I don't think that's like some philosophical change. I expect Bregman to be fine. Jose Ramirez or Alex Bregman? Ramirez. Yeah.

And we have a full season of Ramirez being better already. That said, this is a great by-low. I think this is like a by-dirt cheap because people really are down on Bregman. A lot of my opinions when I say stuff like that is just, based on the feedback I see in emails and on Twitter. So, look, you listeners that tweet me don't represent the fantasy baseball community, but I get the sense the average fantasy owner is very frustrated with Alex Breggman. And this could be someone you get really cheap.

Remember, he started 2 for 38 last year, and then he went, then he hit 313 with a 931 OPS in his last 39 games, Alex Breggman. But the type of player who can be a, B.A. bust is a young player without much track record. Sure, who gets drafted really high. And Alecich Bregman was going pretty high. I feel like he could be a bust and still be a buy. Like, he's not going to be this bad, right?

So you could buy low on him if you buy really low, like a Jason Vargas. I don't know if that's realistic, but maybe. Right. It depends on how frustrated the person who owns him currently is. Even though I buy Luis Severino, I think that's a trade you could try to make right now. Severino for Breggman or those are the key components of the trade. I don't dislike that. I don't hate it, but it's not necessarily a trade I would make yet.

Jonathan Luchroy, batting 196. He was great with the Rangers last year, at an 885 OPS. He's just been awful. But only five strikeouts in 15 games. How concerned are you about, is Luke Roy stock falling? I'm more concerned about the fact that he's just not playing as much as I expected him to. Chorinos is red hot right now.

Yeah, but Jonathan Leroy is not somebody is supposed to fall victim to a red hot backup catcher. Well, when he's batting 196, I think Lucroi, look, he's played 15 games out of like 20 or 21. Yeah, that's not the ratio I expected from Jonathan Leroy.

Well, is his stock falling, or do you still value him the same? The catcher's awful. I still value him the same. Yeah, he's still in the top five for sure, but you know who would have passed him nobody McAnne

so he's still on the top three for sure yeah um but you know it was bad two years ago he is 31 yeah he is it's not just gonna pat myself on the back here this is why I didn't want to draft any of the catchers shocking

uh yeah I don't know we'll see what happens catcher has not played out anything like we thought it would in the first month of the year. Is Billy Hamilton's stock falling? He's batting 212. He's got no power, obviously, and yes, he's stealing bases.

But Billy Hamilton batting 212 with three RBIs. While you answer that, I'm going to look up where he ranks among outfielders. But is Billy Hamilton's stock falling? His stock's not really going to fall for me as long as he's playing. Because as long as he's playing and leading off, and if he steals 60 bases, then he gave me what I expected from him. There's no reason to believe he's going to lose his job, and 60 bases is low. Like, you really think he's only going to steal 50 more bases in the next 140 games?

That seems low. He's already at 10. I don't think he has 140 games probably left to play. At this pace, he might only need 100 more games to get to 60. Well, Billy Hamilton. This is why I was so excited to draft Billy Hamilton is just, yes, he's only hitting 219, 2.13. Yes, he's hurting you there. A lot of that's babbip related and his batted ball profile hasn't proved enough that you could see him, you know, being someone who should be a 290,300 babbip guy.

If he's hitting 260, yeah. Like he's batted ball profile is not very good. He's got a 30% soft contact rate so far and 11% hard contact rate. Sure, but he's also stopped hitting quite so many fly balls the way he did early in his career. I think that's big. Well, here's the thing. Hamilton right now is the number 52 outfielder in points leagues and number 48 in Roto. Now, when it comes to points leagues, there's really no disputing.

It's like that's what he is. When it comes to Roto, Billy Hamilton is really, his value really depends on the rest of your team. He's the number 48 outfielder right now. But if you can compensate for his lack of everything but steals, then he's more valuable than 40. And that's the problem, though. He's on pace for 80 runs. I guess my problem is that he was drafted in the fifth or sixth round. And I feel like our roto formula generally gives more weight to stolen bases than they deserve.

And he's absolutely killing you in like three of the five categories. He's just like he's not even there. Do you think he's a 213 batting. He's also cold right now. No, I think he's probably at 240. That's a pretty sizable jump. He averaged, what's like two or three hits, right? He averaged one infield hit every six games last season.

He has yet to have one this season. Billy Hamilton's not slower. So his stock is not falling in your eyes, Billy Hamilton? Not for me. The next guy on this list is Manny Machado. Quick no on him? No, no, no at all. No concern.

How about Mark Trumbo, his teammate, batting 190 with one home run, four walks, and 21 strikeouts? Is Trumbo's stock falling? Yeah. Like last year was a big outlier for him. Any time you have the big outlier, if you don't back it up the way Freddie Freeman is or the way Daniel Murphy did early last season, I think you do have to question it. Now, I'll say this though. Like he was a top, I think he was like number seven, number eight outfielder last year Trumbo. You guys had him ranked closer to 20. So is his stock falling from that?

Is he like outside the top 30 now? Is he behind Miguel Sano? Is he behind Jose Ramirez? Is Trumbo behind Beninty? Guys like that? I have removed him behind Miguel Sano. I am not motivated to drop him yet. I think that that's one thing about the way he approaches it.

If you strike out in a fourth of your plate appearances and you hit a ton of fly balls, you're going to have terrible stretches and you're going to have amazing stretches. You're going to be more streaky. Yeah, he's streaky. Sure. So, yeah, Trumbo's going to turn around. He's been passed by a few players, though. Like who?

Well, Eric Thames, for sure. Okay. Miguel Sino for me. Yeah. I moved him down to 28th. All right. Last one here. Is Anthony Rendon stock falling?

He is the only one who's not hitting at Corris Field right now. Everybody else is batting 231. The nationals have been beaten up on Rocky's pitching in Corse Field. This guy was the 11th best third baseman in fantasy last year, 12th best in in Roto, 11th and points. And Rendon had a terrible first half, and then he, you know, he slugged 508 in the second half. Is his stock falling, or do you think Rendon is a by-low?

Or both? You know, there were a lot of positive signs with his slow start last year. There are not nearly as many right now. Stack cast's expected Wobah has him as a 276 Wobah hitter, which is really bad. He's a 267 with his real Wobah, so there's not a lot in the batted ball profile that makes you think that he's got just bad luck so far. He's just not that good.

Like, Rendon. I'm not downgrading him. I'm not buying low. He got off to a slow start, which was affected by the fact that he wasn't healthy in spring. I will give him probably two more weeks, and if he's still going this bad, then I'll downgrade him a little. The rest of the show, that's Anthony Rendon we're talking about. The rest of the show we're going to do fairly quickly here. I'd need to tell you, though, about something very cool.

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It's a crazy industry. We give you picks unlike every game. It's crazy how many picks you get. It's $9.99 a month or $49.99 for the year. And if you want Vegas experts and their advice, and it's really good stuff, $49.99, go to sportsline.com. Sign up right now. Rank these outfielders.

David Peralta, five straight multi-hit games. Corey Dickerson, Manuel Margo, Hunter Renfro, Michael Conforto. Paralta Dickerson, Margot, Renfro, Conforto. I think I have Margot highest out of this group, followed by Dickerson, Peralta, Conforto, and Renfro. I will go Dickerson, Peralta, Margo, Conforto, Renfro. Okay, Conforto lower than I expected. But, okay. Line-up stuff.

Matt Davidson, D.H. against the righty for the White Sox. This is A.L. only, but, you know, we want to see him against righty's not just. just lefties. Jay Bruce is first base eligible. Arnau Perez started in right field. Keon Broxton sat. Cody Bellinger, as I mentioned, he let off. He went over five. He struck out three times facing Johnny Quedo, amongst others. Josh Bell has reached base in 11 straight games. He's starting to turn things around a little bit for the pirates. Keep an eye on Josh Bell. Here's your joke of the day. It's from Tom. Tom says, hey, did you know Christina Aguilera used to sing the anthem at Pirates Games? I think she'd sing, come on Nova. Come on Nova. Come on Nova.

A baby What do you find Nova's For the anthem? That's kind of disrespectful Yeah I guess But it's a Come on over a babeip Bebib would be great

Yeah He's got a Novo has to have a pretty low babyp Yeah That's the joke There you go Here's a crazy league idea

Our crazy league idea Of the day It's from Phil Phil and I were exchanging emails yesterday He told me That the commissioner In his league

The commissioner Keeps Mike Trout Off everyone's roster Mike Trout is not on any roster. The team that makes the most trades by the deadline gets Mike Trout. How crazy is that? It's interesting. Yeah.

It's kind of fun. Did we ever talk about the team where you just draft everyone who has the same last name? No. I think someone emailed us about that. And their question was where would Mike Trout go in that type of draft? It's an interesting one. I don't get it. You draft a last name.

You get every player who has that last name in baseball. So every Gomez? Every Polanco, yeah. Where does Trout go? Wow, where does Trout go in the last name league? Well, what's like the best, probably first, right? I don't know. I'm trying to think of what the best last name would be.

Garcia? Like Trey Turner and Justin Turner. That's pretty good. Are there any other good Murphys? You could have got Tom Murphy when he comes out with the deal. Daniel Murphy and Tom Murphy. Polanco. Gregory Polanco.

And Placito. Polanco. Jorge. Or, Polanco. Yeah. This sounded really fun until I started trying to do it. There's got to be a bunch of Joneses, right? Yeah.

Adam Jones. No pitchers. Nate Jones. What's up with the pitcher's last names? They're all weird. Every pitcher has a weird last name. Yeah. Not weird.

I mean, the first pick is Eric Thames, obviously. All right, back to fantasy baseball now. Here's your quote of the day. Which manager said this about his pitcher who pitched last night? Or which pitcher's manager said this? Quote, I think he's trying to pitch to more contact and not trying to make perfect pitches and strike everybody out with perfect pitches. Who is making more – who is inducing more contacted? Dylan Bundy.

No. Cole Hamels. No. Vince Velasquez is the answer. So let's get into some pitchers from yesterday. including Velasquez. By the way, quick double dongs. Scott Shebler, Tim Beckham.

Beckham, by the way, is batting 3.72 in his last 11 games, but he has two walks, 25 strikeouts this year. Do you have any interest in Shebler or Beckham in deep leagues? I think Shevler's underwent. Yeah, Shevler's definitely been overlooked. Yep. Okay. He's 12% own Scott Shebler.

Good rotation yesterday. James Paxton, Johnny Quato, Jose Cantana, 10 strikeouts. And Rick Porcelo had a weird start. He walked four, but he struck out nine. He got 20 swinging strikes on the Yankees and had a great fastball. But he ended up going six and two-thirds, giving up three runs, two earned. Paxton, Quato, Kintana, Porcelo, anything to say about those guys. I'd rather we keep it short so we could talk about the bad rotation.

But you tell me. Let's move right along then. Let's do it. Kata doesn't count. It was against a AAA team. Which one? Kintana. Kintana?

Oh, against the royals? Yeah, they're bad. Bad rotation yesterday. Cole Hamels. John Lester, two bad starts in a row. I'll remind you, last year he had a four-start stretch in July, where Lester gave up 18 runs and 16 innings. Holy cow, and he still had like a 260 ERA for the year.

Lance McCullors, all right. The walks are creeping back up a little bit now. Just three walks, I think two starts in a row. Yeah. Dylan Bundy. I did sell Dylan Bundy yesterday. I am concerned about the velocity. I sold them for Zach Britton.

And Julio Tehran is another guy who, look, he gave up two runs, but he walked four, he struck out four. And Tehran's got 15 walks to 22 strikeouts. So Hamels, Lester, and we kind of talked about Hamels. Lester, McCullors, Bundy, Tehran. Any concerns here, guys? Bundy's just, he's had a weird start to the season. I don't entirely know what to make of it. His velocity, Bundy's velocity on his fastball, has decreased every game so far, a little bit.

And I watched a lot of last night's start And I just I'm not saying he can't throw harder Sometimes it's mechanics Sometimes it's building up arm strength But if he's going to throw 90 miles per hour 91 miles per hour This fastball

I'm not I'm selling He's averaging 92 Okay but it's decreasing Um He's down a mile and a half from last year About yeah And the breaking pitches are great

They really are But he's like a jump picture. It was down pretty significantly last night. That's the first one. He'd been in the 92 mile per hour range before last night was 90. He's not really striking anyone else. Listen, if somebody in my league wants to pay for 3-1, 1.37 ERA, Dylan Bundy, I'm absolutely selling high. Sure.

Yeah, I mean, I'm just concerned. I don't know. When I see a guy who has a history of arm issues whose velocity is going down, it jumps out of me a little bit with Bundy. You know, Scott poohed it when I made the deal, but I traded Dylan Bundy for Garrett Cole after their respective first starts. I feel fantastic about it. I still like Dylan Bundy, but nothing I've seen has made me regret that trade yet. I definitely like that better than the trade that Azer just made. For all the Azer trade nonsense there is, the actual trade he executed, I'm not so sure about.

I'm not even. But Bill Bundy for Britain? You're trading one guy that you're afraid might be injured for a guy that is currently. on the disabled list. It goes against my rule of don't trade for injured players. And is that a head-to-head points? Yeah. But I don't like it.

I felt like this was, I don't know. I'm afraid of Bundy. And look, Britain, I wanted a top-five closer. I think Britain's the top-five closer. If he comes back healthy. And I read the reports, he's supposed to go on a rehab assignment tomorrow. Britain should be back on Sunday or by Monday. It's a risk.

But I kind of felt like if Bundy couldn't dominate the raise, If Bundy struck out three rays, the team that strikes out more than any in baseball, this was my best chance to sell him. Because he's got the Red Sox. He's got two stars next week. I think one is the White Sox. The other is the Red Sox. Or maybe it's the Blue Jays and the Red Sox. I don't know.

But I would also point out that like the overall swinging strike rate is still healthy enough that I'm not necessarily concerned about 6.8Ks per 9. He still has a 12% swing strike rate. That suggests that he should be able to strike more batters out moving forward. And 40% of his starts are coming against the Red Sox. Yeah, and they don't strike out. That's true. The other three have been the Blue Jays twice and the Rays. It's been a weird start.

It has. It's kind of hard to know what he is. Let's see. McCullors. You worried about McCullors at all? Not necessarily. He's going to have stretches where he walks a lot of batters just because he's a curveball first pitcher and even his really, really good curveball, it's harder to control

than a fastball. I am not worried about him living up to where I had him ranked as a high-end number three starter. I am worried about him making the leap that I was hoping he would make to becoming a borderline ace. I'm going to give you, I think, six or seven fringy starting pitchers. You tell me your three favorites. Matt Shoemaker, Vince Velasquez, Robert Gazellman, Daniel Norris, Alex Cobb, Trevor Bauer,

Hector Santiago Shoemaker, Velazquez, Gazelman, Daniel Norris, Cobb, Bauer, Hector Santiago. My three favorites are Shoemaker, Velasquez, and pass.

Yeah, I, I'm dropping Robert Gisselman. I'm sorry I convinced you to draft him in the 12th round in that one league, Azer. No, I haven't been four leagues, and I'm not dropping him yet, but he's got two starts next week.

most, if not all these guys do. He's just got to get, like, he's been terrible in the first inning. Sometimes you can correct that. But obviously, he's drop-able. I love the stuff still, but he's just, he's having trouble making it work. Yeah, he's dropable, Gazellman. I can't argue against it. I don't think he's a must-drop.

And I also think that Daniel Norris has given up four earn runs and two straight starts. This is after going 21 starts in a row, allowing three or fewer earn runs. And he had a strikeout hurting last year. striking people out. Like, Gazelman and Norris are two guys that, because of what I said earlier in the show about not finding good pitching on waivers, I don't know that I want to drop them. And obviously, I'm not dropping Shoemaker of Alaska's either. But I don't know that I want to drop Gazelman or Norris.

The Shoemaker's underowned in 81% by the way. He needs to go a little bit deeper into games. He has not been very efficient. Lots of foul balls. Yeah? Lots of foul balls last night. That's an inch away from a swing strike. We're a home run.

Hector Nairis has given up three runs on seven hits in his last three appearances. Should we own Joaquin Benoit? No. I think Hector Nairis is so far ahead of everyone else in that bullpen in terms of skill that I'm just... I'm not worried about it. This is going to turn into an athletic situation. Yeah, they're all professional athletes. Because the athletics used to be in Philadelphia.

Come full circle. And Fernando Rodney gave up five run runs in two-thirds of an inning. Thank you. Thank you, Fernando Rodney and Robert Gazellman for... Actually, no, I accidentally sat Gazellman yesterday in my Daily League, so that was good. Thank you, Fernando Rodney and John Lester for losing me like three categories yesterday. Let's grade some trades to finish the show. From Josh in Iowa.

Grade the trade. Give up Garrett Cole and Gregory Polanco, a couple of pirates. It's Cole and Polanco get Jake Areeta and pick up Conforto or Margo with the roster spot. So you give up Cole and Polanco, you get Areeta, and then you get either Conforto or Margo on waivers. Grade the trade. I don't like it. I'm going to say D. C minus.

Okay. D and a C minus, we don't like the trade. David in Chicago, grade the trade. Hey, Mugsy, Charles, Patrick, and Sean. Oh, when the NBA was good, I like it. The Space Jam, folk. Oh, is that what it is? Yeah.

Nice. Nice. Okay. 10 team head-to-head categories league with OBP. Give Dylan Bundy, get Jose Parraza. D-plus, aim higher. Yeah, I think it's probably the right spot. I'd rather have Zach Britton than Jose Paraza.

From Mike, grade the trade. Give up Bundy, get Carlos Martinez. That's a good one. A. B-plus. From Trey, grade the trade. Granky for Billy Hamilton. I need steals. I think that's a B plus.

Wow. If you're going to give it a passing grade, it's got to be more like a B minus. I'm not, and that's not necessarily a reflection of a lack of belief in that Granky. I think he's pretty good. I'm going to give it a S. Like, what's between a C and a C minus? C mine. He's got like a 70. Not the courage of your convictions. A 72.75%.

Okay. From Bryce in Iowa. Give up Trey Turner and Matt Carpenter. This is a big one. It's a blockbuster. Give up Trey Turner and Matt Carpenter. Get Chris Bryant. I think you're giving up too much.

Did anybody make a good trade? C minus. Yeah, Bundy for Carbart. That's a good one. Okay. That was our good one. This is from the Reverend Brandon E. Miles. Good afternoon.

Mal, Zoe, Wash, and Jane. No idea. None. Got to look into that one. It's a Keeper League. Ten team points, Keeper League, keep four. Trade, Manny Machado, Albert Pujolz, and Michael Paneda.

Machado, Pujolz Paneda. Get, Posey, Segura, and Verlander. You're giving up the best player, but I like it. Yeah, I think that's pretty good. has very little value in a keeper league. Paneda, I don't know. I don't think he has much value in a keeper league.

So, yeah, I think that's a B. I'm going to go with a C-minus because Machado is the only player I actually like. No, I'll give a C-plus. C-plus. All right, James and Kentucky. Hey, Fleischman, O'Connell, Maurice, and Chris. Oh, Chris Towers, sure.

These Blyshman's Yeast Yeah, I don't know We'll look it up It's Northern Exposure And the last one was Firefly Northern Exposure? It was a

I know what 80s early 90s tell me My mom loved Northern Exposure These intros are almost as bad as your trades All right here's a trade Give Jake Lamb Get Stephen Piscotti Worried about the Humidor

Give Jake Lamb get Stephen Piscotti C++ C plus. Hmm, interesting. Okay. And Mason in Spokane. Give up Roark and Graveman. Roark and Graveman get Madison Bumgarner.

See? Good job, Mason. I like that, yeah. B plus. Roark and Graveman for Bungarner. B plus and a C. Which means it's a B minus on average. All right.

Hey, thank you for a great show, fellas. It's been fun. You're welcome. It was a great time. You guys were great. You were awesome. And thank you all these emails. You're always professional, Adam.

And let me just read this last one. This is from Stephen from Illinois. Upon listening to yesterday's podcast, I felt myself get dumber when Chris said, quote, take this L, end quote. I consider it your duty to ensure this doesn't happen again. You know what I have to say to that? Take this L.

Steven's going to have to take this L. All right. For Heath Covey's of Chris Towers, I'm Adam Azer. Make sure you watch our NFL draft show. Make sure you go to ziprecruiter.com slash strike. And have a great day, everybody. See you.