Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/03 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Trade Talk and Triple Dongs!

Episode Date: May 3, 2018

We had some amazing hitting and pitching performances yesterday, and we also had Yu Darvish. We'll discuss it all, but first let's talk about Fernando Romero and who to drop for him (1:10). Then we're ranking some #2/#3 SPs (12:58) like James Paxton, Aaron Nola and Zack Godley ... Wednesday's standouts (22:28) including the amazing Mookie Betts, the surging Edwin Encarnacion, two sluggers who hit two home runs, and the struggling Dallas Keuchel ... Buy low (31:00), sell high (34:35), buy high (39:00) and players we are worried about (41:00). Can Castillo, Stroman and a few other SPs regain greatness (44:22)? Early-season hitting studs (50:16) and today's matchups (54:35) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the show. It is Thursday, May 3rd. Counting down the days to Cinco de Mayo, I guess. I like Mexican food. Welcome to the show, everybody. So we got a lot to talk about, including great performances from great players. I thought yesterday was one of the most normal days, other than maybe you do. It was great.

Right. It was great. The good players were good. Oh, I don't think it was normal. Scott, it was. We had a lot of abnormality. Yeah, but that always happens. Always just arguing for the sake of arguing.

It was a normal amount of abnormalities, you're saying. Oh, now he's Chris Howers. No, no, no. Okay, look, obviously two, three homer days, that's very abnormal. But the good players did well, except for Darvish, I'd say. Okay. Maybe Darvish is just not a good player anymore. How about we just get into it and I'll figure out what you're talking about?

Okay. Then here's our first segment. It's called Am I an Idiot? And it's about me. Am I an idiot? Love this segment. It's a great segment. I picked up Fernando Romero, and I finally have his name right.

He's a twin starting pitcher who did quite well yesterday in his major league debut, five and two-thirds for Romero, four hits, no runs, three walks, five strikeouts against the Blue Jays. I am in six leagues, and I picked him up in four leagues overnight on either waiver claims or fab. And after I got him in all four leagues, I was like, am I an idiot? Did I miss something? How is there not more demand for this guy? So am I an idiot? And did I miss something?

Well, I don't. I think you've given us an incomplete question. Picking up Fernando Romero in four leagues does not make you an idiot. But we also do not have enough information to make that call. I need to know who you dropped for Fernando. Points League, Delano to Shields. That's an idiot. That's fine.

Points league. He's going to be a starting caliber outfielder. Okay, but I happen. He's not going to be for me. I have good outfielders. I think I dropped Renauds. Danny Duffy. That's fine.

Yeah. That's fine. I mean, I do like Danny Duffy more in like I'm ranking them since, but if you want to take a shot on the upside, that seems fine. Stephen Matt's? Definitely fine. Perfectly fine. Maybe the first player I have ranked below Romero. And I don't.

remember, uh, yes I do. Brandon McCarthy, I believe. Brandon McCarthy. A perfectly boring player to drop. I mean, that sounds fine to me. I feel upside pitchers who have shown us more

that Romero wasn't much of a priority for me. I mean, he's, this is kind of a hurried trip to the majors. After a brief minor league career that had some health issues in it and he had walk issues throughout his minor league career he only has two pitches so i mean there's reasons to doubt him you know it's it's not like this is mike saroka coming up he's not quite that level of prospect but there is upside there for sure um

but you know like compared to the the nick kingams and caleb smiths of the world less guys who aren't exactly prospects but i feel like we saw a lot more from them when they actually pitched and they're so available. We saw a lot of Romero. It's going to take a while for me to get to the Fernando Romero level of wanting to add it. So I guess that's why I was confused. I understand Soroka

over him, but Kingham was not hyped at all. We were not on Kingham until he had his flirtation with a perfect game in his major league debut. In fact, I had read twice that he projected more as a back end of the rotation type of starting pitcher. Romero has good minor league numbers

and he's got a chance to stick around for the twins, that's for sure. Yeah, I guess I almost felt like it was maybe fatigue, waiver wire fatigue, there were just too many starting pitchers lately coming up, and Romero sort of slipped, I don't know if I should say, slipped through the cracks, but people were just kind of like, okay, another guy, I've already picked up, I've already picked up Soroka, I've already picked up Kingham or something like that. I just, I don't see why he's on such a different playing field,

and Heath, why don't you jump in here on Romero, and then we'll wrap this segment up. I don't really feel like he's on a different playing field than Kingham or than Caleb Smith. I would put him in the same group as those guys. He's on a different playing field than Flaherty, than Walker Bueller. But they also don't have jobs. And then Soroka. Well, Bueller might have a job now.

Junjin Riu is likely headed to the D.L. Oh, that's true. And Bueller will start on Friday or Saturday in Mexico. I mean, it's one of those things where, like, I feel like I see the upside in all of them, and you just kind of have to pick your favorites. And for the reasons I mentioned, Romero is not one of my favorites. All right. Fair enough.

So I have to conclude that I am not an idiot, and that if you want to pick up Romero, you should not drop anyone you are ultra attached to. And there you go. We've got some trade talk today. Buy low, sell high, buy high, player we're worried about. We've got guys that just keep on raking, like Jed Lowry, who had another home run last night. He is, you know, on pace, certainly for a career high.

But we also have the total jerk tweet of the day from Scott White. What a total jerk, Scott White. I'm not an idiot, but Scott is a total jerk. Not to scare anyone, but Glaber Torres's injury last year, which was originally classified as a hyper-extended elbow. And that was, of course, after Jacob de Grom left with a hyper-extended elbow. You're not trying to scare anyone, Scott, you total jerk? I was just stating a relevant fact, I thought,

Because I was trying to find a history of hyper-extended elbows to get some idea of what kind of timetable we're looking at for DeGrom. And I didn't find that, but I found that Claiboros was removed from that game last June with the hyper-extended elbow. Three days later, he was having Tommy John surgery. So we don't have the MRI results for DeGrom yet. I, you know, my presumption is it's not that bad, but it's certainly not good. his absence, I would suspect, will measure in weeks at the very least. I was watching H.Q. this morning,

and David Sampson was talking about this, and I don't think it's likely that he needs to have Tommy John surgery, but David Sampson was talking about the fact that, like, this does affect the stretching of the ligaments in the wrong direction. Like, it could cause, it definitely caused some sort of strain,

and that's just a version for a not very severe tear. A severe tear will lead to surgery. One thing I'm encouraged about is he suffered the injury while batting in the third inning. He came back and pitched the fourth. It looked normal. I mean, he struck out one. He allowed one of the two hits in the game, but pitching a lot if he did fine. Irvin Santana's pitched for like a decade with a torn UCL.

Yeah. Well, I mean, DeGrom was. dominating. He was so good last night, and he's been one of the... Degrominate. He has been. It's been degromination. He's jumped into, I don't know if it's permanent, but he had been jumping into that next year. I've been pitching like a true ace. And this is a shame. I wonder if it puts Matt Harvey back in the rotation. I don't think anybody is interested in that, and maybe Harvey can throw a little party about it. But, all right, let's go to the big news. Johnny Quedo may see Dr. James Andrews. That's never good.

Josh Donaldson could be back today. That is good. Anthony Rendon is going to begin a rehab assignment today. Could be back by the end of the week. Daniel Murphy, not good, experiencing discomfort when he runs. So I don't know if I'd call that a setback, but it's not a good thing for Daniel Murphy. He's coming back from knee surgery. Yoan Moncada day-to-day with hamstring tightness.

Still no timetable for Miguel Cabrera's return. Bryce Harper stayed in the leadoff spot, and he homered again, and he stole a base. Was he a dog chasers pick, Keith? He was a Dong Chasers pick of Mike McClure, and I think Chris is still in first, but Mike's catching up. Okay, Dong Chasers is a segment on the Sportsline DFS podcast, where we help you win some money every single day on your DFS sites. Anthony Rizzo was not batting leadoff. He batted cleanup, and he also homered. I was watching the Twins game yesterday for Fernando Romero purposes, but Eddie Rosario has three home runs in his last five games.

And in his last 36 home games, Eddie Rosario is batting 345. with 13 home runs and 10 doubles. So that's crazy. But the announcers were talking about how he looks a lot better at the plate. It looks like he's made some adjustments. He's not trying to hit the ball hard all the time. He's not trying to pull the ball all the time. Good stuff for Eddie Rosario.

Shoheo Tani could pitch Sunday. Ryan Braun left with calf tightness. He's expected to be back tomorrow. Jordan Montgomery out six to eight weeks with an elbow strain. And Domingo Erman is in the Yankees rotation. Guys, Joe Musgrove is nearing a return. Are you interested in Joseph Musgrove, R.P. Eligible starting pitcher for the Pirates Heath. He's somebody you could definitely add as a SPARP and a Points League.

I would not want to start him, but I have some teams where I'm holding on to a third closer. A lot of times it's where I own Greg Holland, and my relief pitchers are pretty, pretty shaky, or I was starting Yanni Sherinos and now he's on the DL. So, yeah, as a SPARP, I have interest. In Joe Musgrove. Michael Conforto sat against the lefty yesterday, and Hyunjin, Rue. left with that groin strain, likely to go on the DL. All right, Heath, so again, Bueller, 61% owned.

Is he a must add right now? He's absolutely a must add in a league where you can start him this week. I have interest in pretty much starting him whenever he pitches. And, well, I have to admit I have not studied the dimensions of the ballpark in Mexico. The altitude will be higher. We talked about it yesterday. It could be a little dicey. It could be a little dice.

I see, I would have to look into that just a little bit. But yes, the thing about the Dodgers, and we've talked about this a lot, and I expect it will be the case with Bueller at some point. They have a lot of pitchers that bounce on and off of the disabled list, I think mostly because the way they handle their training. And I didn't mean that in a bad way. I mean because they're more cautious. They have enough starting pitchers to do this.

So I wouldn't be surprised if Bueller stays in the rotation for a month, but then disappears for a month so they can limit his innings. Yeah, I have a little bit of concern about him just on a start-by-start basis, how many times you're actually going to get six innings from Bueller. Because I do think, one, he has walk issues, so that could elevate his pitch count. And two, I think he threw like 100 innings last year. So you know they're not going to turn them loose, right? Oh, six.

Like, you're, I really think when you start Bueller, you're hoping for five innings. Right, right. So quality start league, you want to get that in mind. If you get six, it's bonus. All right, but that again, he's a very good, he's an elite prospect. Let's talk about then who you would maybe drop. Okay, Kingham or. or Bueller?

I'd rather have Bueller. Soroka or Bueller? Have we got a final answer on Soroka yet? No. I saw some speculation that they might want him to make one more start because it's at home, which is kind of ridiculous when you think about it. But also, I understand it as well. They've got some question marks.

It may be as simple as how does Julio Tiran's next start go. I will say Bueller. Okay. How about Junior Gera or Bueller? Bueller. All right.

And, Yuenna Cespitus, his diamond necklace broke in your second base. It was very expensive. It looked very expensive anyway. Like,

what are you doing wearing expensive jeweler on the baseball field? I think everybody's wondering that right now, Heath. I'm going to guess he has more. I'm going to guess he is more.

Right. But, I mean, I just, I don't understand And I understand buying expensive jewelry. It sounds nice. By the way, people are probably like, where Scott?

Scott had a computer issue. We're getting him back shortly. What do you think Scott's doing? Should we play? What is Scott doing right now? I would guess Scott has his frustrated face on. Yes. And, I mean, I don't believe Scott curses,

but he could still be talking in a very stern manner to the computer. All right. Well, he's almost ready to join us. but in the meantime, let's rank these starting pitchers. They were mostly good. Four out of five, very good yesterday, and then there's Dylan Bundy. So let's rank these starting pitchers, Heath. James Paxton with 31 swinging strikes and 16 strikeouts against the A's,

and he did not even get the win, but he was dominant. He said he had probably the best fastball he's ever had, James Paxton last night. Aranola, great start against the Marlins. and not a ton of strikeouts, 35 and 45 and 2 thirds. But he's actually faced three teams in the bottom eight in strikeouts per game, meaning like the eighth fewest strikeouts per game. And so he's had a little bit of a tough schedule, especially against the Braves. He struck out everybody except the Braves, basically.

So that's Aaron Nola. Zach Godley, solid, but he hasn't been great this year. He's been solid. Blake Snell, another good star for him. And Dylan Bundy, who now. has two stinkers in a row. I'm going to get Scott back on right now, but the pitchers are Paxton,

Nola, Godley, Snell, and Bundy. You think about that for just a second, Heath. As we welcome back, Scott White. You all right over there? Me? Yeah, I'm fine. My computer quit on me. He sounds back.

He sounds frustrated, Heath. Yeah, I knew he has frustrated. All right. So, Heath, you can start. Scott, I will get your rankings after. Paxton, Nola, Godley, Snell, Bundy, Rankham Heath. I'll go Nola, Paxton, Snell, Bundy, and Godley. Nola, Paxon, Snell.

You put Godley last? I put Godley last, and I've moved Godly up a lot, but I've moved most of these guys up a lot throughout the season. So they're all in my top 30 starting pitchers. None of them are in my top 20 starting pitchers. So you're going, Nola, Paxton, Snell. Snell, Bundy, Godley. Scott, how about you?

How would you rank those five? Paxton. Noah. Nell, Godley, Bundy. Ooh, Godly Four. Yeah, I dropped Godley behind Snell, which is largely has to do with Snell. I mean, two walks and last four starts,

and that was his biggest issue. But I'm a little concerned about Godley. The swinging strikes haven't been there, like they were last year. I mean, the ground ball rate's been awesome, but it was the combined bat missing ability plus ground ball rate that I thought took them to a new level last year. Still looks like a quality pitcher, but I'm beginning to have doubts he'll be great.

Okay, what do you guys think about Bundy? Because he did this last year too. He had a great start. It was about two months, and then he completely imploded. And then he was great again down the stretch. but I think the difference is last year he had the great start, but it was really just the ERA. The strikeouts were not there. Strikeouts are there this year, but this is two terrible starts in a row for Dylan Bundy.

And just like Godly, I mean, and I guess NOLA too, they don't throw particularly hard. So that's always a concern with Bundy, for me anyway. But what do you guys think about Dylan Bundy right now? His success last year was tied to his slider usage, which was back up at the start of this season, and part of the reason for optimism, it was down two starts ago, the first of the bad starts, but it was back for this start.

And part of his explanation for why he lowered his slider usage during the rough stretch last year, as he just didn't have the feel for it then. And so, you know, while the answer seems like it just be throw your slider more, I mean, if he doesn't have a feel for it, it may lead to things like this. I don't know. I don't know what's going on with them.

I mean, it's reasonable to assume right now it's just a two-star blip, but based on his history, there's reason to be a little concerned. How would we feel about Dylan Bundy if he throws 180 innings, strikes out 10.6 batters per nine as a 370 or 8? Pretty good. It's pretty darn good. I think if you look at everything, he had a little regression coming.

He's had some bad luck a little bit in his last couple starts. But all the peripherals basically show him as about what he's been so far this year. I don't know that he is consistent enough in what he needs to do to be that ace all the time. And he's going to have a couple of bad starts. But he's still a top 30 starting pitcher. Okay. Well, I want to see how many starting pitchers had ERAs that high. There are a lot of them in the top 24.

You go farther like the top 28 last year. Yeah, I mean, after you get past 20, you're actually seeing a lot of pitchers last year in points leagues where innings matter. With ERAs around four or higher, like Kintana, Bauer, Samarja, Garrett Cole last year. Now, the other thing that might be a problem in points leagues, and in Roto, it's 20% of the categories for 25 for starting pitchers. He's 1 and 4. The Orioles are not good at all, and they're in the same division as the Yankees and Red Sox. So that could be a problem.

That probably will be a problem. Now, Sean Nukum was great yesterday. We'll talk about yesterday standouts and a little buy, low, sell high in just a bit. Right now I want to talk about Seekek and your opportunity to save 20 bucks. next time you go to a game or a concert or a comedy or a theater, you got to make Seekkeek your go-to app for finding the best deals on every type of ticket. I've been to plenty of Yankees games, a Giants game, Miami Hurricanes games when I'm down in Florida. ACCC tournament.

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This is amazing. Fantasy for $20 off your first purchase, or today for $10 off any purchase. That is pretty cool. That is a great offer. Now it's time for our email of today, Heath. It is from Brian from Atlanta OTP. What does that mean, OTP? On the prairie?

No, I don't think that's what that means. Of the people? Of the people. It could be of the people, but I doubt that's it either. Do you know what it is? Am I embarrassing myself right now? OTP. I'm not going to answer the first question, and the second answer is yes.

Okay. Would you drop Sunny Gray for Sean Nukum in a Roto League? I would. I would do it in a points league, too. There is more upside with Sean Newcomb than there is with Sunny. Gray. And he's obviously, I'm surprised he's available on the waiver wire in your league. Yeah, I would absolutely do that. He's 78% own Sean Newcomb coming off a great start.

I, okay. You asked Heath. Heath hates Sunny Gray and love Sean Newcomb. Just keep that in mind. Well, I mean, I don't think it would really be any different if noted Braves Homer, Scott White, had been asked that question. Scott is, okay, so Scott technical issues, we've kicked them. off the podcast. He'll be back tomorrow. Tired of it.

We'll get it all sorted. No, stop. We'll get it all sorted out. I feel bad for Scott. I know he's trying hard. I'm just not going to be able to make it happen today. All right, so I don't think I would... Kind of like Sunny Gray.

I mean, I'm sure Sunny Gray is trying as hard as he can. Sunny Gray is not nearly as bad as you make him out to be, okay? You hate it. Leave me alone. Leave Rudy alone. I'm not saying that he's the worst pitcher in baseball. He can't be the worst pitcher on your roster. He can absolutely be the worst pitcher on your roster.

All right. Well, I don't think I would drop him for Nukus. Nukum is still walking guys. I mean, yesterday he didn't. He has 15 walks and 34 and two thirds. He has a 127 whip. It's actually not terrible. He's really good.

He's really good. Starting pitcher leaderboard to try to check out what Gray's peripheral said. But he has been yanked from his starts too quickly and doesn't have enough innings Well, he's been terrible. Forget about his peripherals. He's been bad. He's going to turn it around. He's an established veteran, Heath.

We're only a month into the season. He is an established veteran that has an ERA around, what, 4.8 since 2016? Yeah, but last year it was like 3.7, wasn't it? It was 3.55 last year. 355. So that's beautiful. All right.

Wednesday standouts. So let's get into it. Who stood out to you? Then we'll get into the triple dongers and the double dongers. Yeah. What stood out to me was a little bit of redemption for, well, it's one of the triple dongers. So I apologize.

No, that's fine. Go for it. Edwin and Carossione, we've had a lot of questions, and we're going to hit on another one of them when we get to the Bailo segment. But we've had a lot of questions about Edwin and Caraccio, about Matt Carpenter, and those guys are starting to hit. And I like it a lot. Yeah, and the weather has been so bad this year.

There just been so many more cold weather games this April compared to last April. So offense is going to pick up. And Encarnacion, he's a bad. April hitter now. He just is. And I, you know, if we had done Bilo's cell high yesterday, and Carnaccio would have been my guy. So that's off the table now. But if we look at all the triple-dongers and double-dangers from yesterday, Betts and Carnaccio and Giancarlo Stanton, who's just a lefty destroyer. He homered twice off Dallas Keikle.

And Nolan Aronado. Is there anything to say about these guys, you know, other than they are who we thought they were? Yeah, Moogie Betts might be the number one player in fantasy. I am still a little bit concerned about John Carlo. And I do think he's of this group that when they were struggling, Stanton was the only one I'm really worried about. Yeah, and he's got a ton of strikeouts, 47 strikeouts so far this year. But you always thought it was going to get better for him.

Well, no, I think what I said was that the concern I had for Stanton was that this game, he made in strikeout percentage last year didn't stick because he'd been a 27, 28, 29, almost 30% strikeout guy for most of his career until last year when it dropped down to 23.6. I think he needs to be below 25% to be a first round pick. So I know Scott would disagree and say he's been a first round pick type of player before with a 30% strikeout rate. And I would tend to agree because I still think he can hit 50 home runs. Right. His batting average is always going to fluctuate between like 260 and 290. You just never know with Stanton.

No, that's the thing. 2013, he hit 249. 2016, he hit 240 in 119 games. He's got, he has a couple of 280, 290 seasons in there as well, but those are years when it's struck out 23% of the time and 26% of the time. Okay. So, like, I don't, he can't, his battering average is going to fluctuate between 240 and 265 if he strikes out this much.

But he's hit 290 before with a ton of strikeouts, right? Or 280s? He hit 288 with a 26.6% strikeout rate. He hit 281 with a 23.6% strikeout rate. All right. So, Betz, back to Betts real quick. I'd take him a second overall right now. Because Out-I don't know what to make of Al-Tube not stealing.

You know, and Betz already has... Like Betz and Al Tuve probably would steal a similar amount of bases, we thought, going into the year. Al Tuvei has, what, one steal so far? Betz has three. He's never hit 30 home runs, but he was two years ago, Mookie Betz was the number one player in fantasy. Two years ago, he had 31 home runs. Oh, sorry. I thought he hit 28.

And that's okay. I think that I had Betz fourth, I believe, and Altuve second, I absolutely agree with taking Betz second. And there's another guy that's kind of like him. It's Mani Machado that like everything we looked at said he just got terribly unlucky and he's still a completely elite player. Mani Machado should be a first round pick if we draft right now. Yeah. And then the other guy is kind of like that is Betts. So last year, Betts, amazing plate discipline.

The steals, the homers were there. You know, the homers weren't quite there. But it's not like he had a total power out. It's just his batting average were so bad and his Babbitt was low. And we knew it was fluky. But I mentioned this the other day. Chris Bryant, where is the freaking power? He homered yesterday.

What is he? He have three home runs, four home runs now, Chris Bryant. You know, I thought that Bryant could have the bounce back year that Moogie Betts is currently having. And, of course, we're only one sixth through the season right now or a little more. So he could, but it isn't happening yet for Chris Bryant in terms of the hard runs. I'm not worried about Chris Bryant's power even a little bit. His hard contact rate is still extremely elite. His fly ball rate is down to 35%, which would be a little bit of a problem for home runs.

But it hasn't really gone to ground balls. It's just that he's hitting a lot more line drives. I think the fluctuation between fly balls and line drives a month end of the season is enough to not worry about it at all. So how many home runs do you think Chris, how many home runs, Moogie Betts? How many home runs for Chris Bryant? Let's see. Chris Bryant, I will say, we'll assume 160 games for both. Sure, yeah.

Or 150 games for both? 155, right in the middle. So, Brian's got another 130 games. I guess he hits 30 from here, so 33 total. Okay, 33 total. Betts already with 11 home runs. Yeah, I don't, I'd be really surprised if he keeps up this home run rate. But I could see him hit 20 from here, so finish with 31.

31. So you still think Brian out-homeers bets, even though Betts is an eight-homer advantage right now? Yes. Okay. All right. Bailow. Oh, wait, no, no, no. We're not there yet, Adam. Just hold your horses, man. All right. Wednesday standouts. I want to talk about two pitchers who struggled, to varying degrees. You Darvish has been awful. Oh, and three, six ERA. He cannot get through five innings. He gave up three home runs.

Wind was blowing out, but whatever. Only two good starts this year, both against Milwaukee. You, Darvish, has been terrible. And Dallas Kikele, I mean, you and Mike McCor were talking about it on yesterday's show. He just hasn't quite been great yet. He's been fine. He still only had more than, I think only one start where he's given up more than three earned runs. But a little bit of a home run problem for Kikl. He gave up two to Stanton yesterday.

So what do you think about Darvish and Kikl going forward? Well, I had planned on talking about Darvish in the segment that you can't wait to get to. Then we'll wait. Then we'll wait. So we'll wait on Darvish. There has not really been anything about Dallas Kikell season that has surprised me at all. And it could have gone much differently, and I would still be saying that. He's been kind of all over the map.

He has shown us elite production when I didn't think it was necessarily elite performance. He's had a terribly unlucky year as well. He's not striking anyone out. his control is improved from where it was last year and back closer to the elite numbers that it was in 2014, 2015. I think the home runs will normalize just a little bit, but I think he's a mid-3 ZRA guy. I want to know if you could tell me if Kiko is pitching up in the zone more because I feel like he is, and he's not getting, he's still got a lot of ground balls, but not what we're used to seeing from Kikl. Fly balls are up a little bit.

The home run to fly ball ratio is very similar to last years, but more fly balls, fewer ground balls. And he's still giving up a ton of soft contact. But I feel like he's trying to pitch up in the zone a little bit more. And I wonder if it's because guys are sort of onto his just pound the lower edge of the strike zone over and over and over again. I'm going to try to get that information for you. But it's not probably going to happen in a reasonable amount of time. May it may finish. Stick around.

All right, all right. All right, well, would you want to try to buy low on, I know you're going to tell me what you feel about Darvish, but what about on Kichl? That would depend on how low I could buy on him, I guess. Are you going to take Sean Nukum over Dallas Kikle? I'm not. Thank goodness. It's kind of close in Roto, but in a points league, no way. Are you going to take Aaron Nolo over Dallas Kikle?

in roto i am all right all right heath let's talk trade by low sell high buy high someone you're actually worried about start out with a by low

who you got i teased it a little bit when we're talking about edwin and carassione carlos santana has been awful it's not the first slow start we've seen in carlos santana's career in fact it's more the norm but you look at what he's actually done

he has more walks than he does strikeouts he has a career high hard contact rate but a 163 bad Bip and a 4.4% home run to fly ball rate. I'm just not worried at all. Are you going to use him every single week? What do you mean? You always go with Carlos Santana. Well, eventually he's going to do what Edwin and Carrasium did.

Here's the problem. He doesn't have bad starts. He has bad halves. He's bad for three months every freaking year. I don't think that's exactly. It's true. I did this on a show that you weren't on. Last, you know what?

You can't find your Dallas Kuykel stats. I will find my Carlos Santana stats. I do think he's a buy-low. I just think he should wait a little bit longer on Carlos Santana. That's where I'm at with him, but you're not. You think he'll turn around sooner? I don't feel comfortable saying that. You don't feel comfortable saying what?

That I want to wait just a little bit longer. Okay. You might miss your boat. Like he has three dongs, and, uh-oh, you can't buy-low on him anymore. But he's not Edwin and Cardassio. He's a much different player. He is a much different player, but he's got a 38% hard contact rate and a 50% flyball rate. So three dongs in a game would not be a big shock at all.

Damn, I can't find my Carlos Gonzalez stat. Yeah, I knew this was going to happen. No, I got it right now. Okay, here we go. 2017, first three months. He batted 225 with nine home runs. 2016, first three months. He batted 237.

He had the power, though. He had 16 home runs, but he batted 237. 2015, first three months. He batted 213 with nine home runs. Here's my issue. 2014, first three months. He batted 205 with 12 home runs. I'm going to need, though, a month-by-month breakout

because if he's hitting 150 every April, then he's just catching up in May and June, then that doesn't count. I mean, I consider... Fine. Okay, my by-low is Jay Bruce. Look, either Jay Bruce is done, or he's just going to go back to hitting 30, 32 home runs and driving it 100 runs and being streaky. So he might be done.

He's getting up there in age. The thing that concerns me is that he hasn't had that many bats against lefties, so I can't blame that on Jay Bruce's slow start. But I think he'll mostly be fine, and he'll kind of like... He's sort of like a light version of Justin Upton. He's streaky. He'll get his numbers at the end of the year. Agree, disagree, Jay Bruce.

Well, I don't think there's anything that you can look at in the numbers that makes you feel good about saying that. I did think he was undervalued, and I almost think with where Jay Bruce was drafted, he might be getting dropped. I agree, and I would pick him up. Yes, I would pick him up. I'm not sure that I would give anything up for him.

I don't think you need to give up anything for Jay Bruce in a show. Allo League, because he's interchangeable. But are you playing like a five outfielder league? That's where I'd be looking to make it move for Bruce. I'm fine with that. And there's nothing in the data other than his strikeouts are down. It's just track record. All right, sell high.

Sell high is John Lester. His ERA looks really good. An ERA does matter. But he has the lowest strikeout percentage since 2012 for him. his highest walk percentage since 2011. And I always like it when, like, the three peripherals all agree. His FIPS 455, his X-FIPs 465, his Sierra's 461. He's, like, we saw signs of decline last year.

We were a little worried coming into the year and ranked him a little bit lower because of that, but thought he'd probably bounce back. He's bounced back with production so far, but not necessarily with performance. John Lester, a sell high for Heath. Would you sell high? John Lester for... You would rather have Castillo, Luis Castillo, or John Lester? I think that's right in the range.

All five of the guys you had me rank earlier, I now have ahead of Lester. Including Blake Snell, including Zach Godley was the lowest, so all of those guys are ahead of them. I think I'd probably rather have Castillo than Lester. All right, my sell high is... somebody we talked about maybe yesterday. Christian Villanueva. It's just that he has destroyed lefties, and he's had so many of bats against lefties. So I think if somebody's buying, I'm selling.

Now, in my leagues, I couldn't get much for Vianueva, so I'd keep them. But if you can turn him into an established veteran who is struggling, I think that's what I would do with Christian Viannaueva. We will tell you who we should buy high on who we're buying in just a second. But let's talk about the draft app. I actually had a pretty good day on draft yesterday, but I ran into a total juggernaut, and I came, I believe, in second place in the draft app yesterday. I will tell you right now.

Oh, no, I came in third place. It wasn't as good as I thought. I had Aaron Nola, Paul Goldschmidt, Cesar Hernandez, Reese Hoskins, and D. Gordon, and the winning team was loaded. Gottlie. Votto gave me zero. But Matt Adams, Bryce Harper, Christian Yellich.

You want some home runs on your team on the draft app. But it's so fun, and I love playing. And a lot of people are joined. I've got like 3,000 followers, which means people are signing up with the promo code FB Today. When you sign up with that promo code FB today, when you make your first deposit on draft, you will automatically follow me, Big Cain 2, and I will send out draft invites every single day, at least every weekday, to do a $1 contest of five people, and you will be able to beat me. And these are snake drafts.

This is not salary cap stuff like on the other DFS sites. This is the best part of fantasy every single day, the snake draft. No waiver wire, no trades. Set it and forget it. Get online. I love the draft app. Get on draft.com or download the app and start playing right now. You play small contests, bigger contests.

The drafts are really quick, they're really fun. And if your player is out, draft will notify you so you can make a change. FB Today is the promo code. Again, the promo code FB Today. You'll get into a real money game for free with the promo code FB Today when you make your first deposit on draft. Bye hi. I actually don't have a name for this. You don't have a name for this.

I thought Scott was going to. But I really can't stand is when we come up with something we're going to do, and then the person doesn't come prepared to the show with names and stats to back it up. Well, I thought it was going to be your segment. I'm playing the role of Scott right now, so. Oh, that makes sense. Quick update on Dallas Keikle before I give this, but I did promise it to the people. In 2015, Dallas Keikle threw 9%.

of his strikes in the upper third of the strike zone. In 2016, that was 11.3%. Last year, it was only 6.8%. This year, it is 12.4%. I told you. The highest in the last four years. And I think that's kind of interesting. That's a little bit of an issue for me,

because I think it could lead to more home runs. Well, I think part of the problem is that that is viewed by some as the solution to the new fly ball revolution. is you get guys to pop more balls up because of their swing, they're trying to swing under the ball. Yeah, I just, he, he dominates the lower edge of the zone. It's interesting. It's something to monitor, something to monitor.

It's really just been the home runs. I was glad I was able to bring those numbers to you. And I'm glad that I actually was right about that because I've, it's nice to know that when you watch something on TV, you think you're right, and then it actually turns out to be right, makes me feel like, now I, not an idiot, like we established at the beginning of the show. All right, Heath, who are we buying high? I'm going to buy high on Lorenzo Kane.

His 150 game pace right now, 280, 20 home runs, 90 runs, 50 RBI, 40 stolen bases. That's pretty good. But then you look and see that he's walking more than he's striking out. He has a career high, hard contact rate, and his BABIP is 40 points below his career average. If he keeps sitting like this, I expect him to be a 3-10 hitter. I expect him to probably score 100 runs. We thought he might run more because Milwaukee likes to run, and he's so good at it. He hits 300 with 100 runs and 40 steals.

He might be a top 10 outfielder in Roto. All right, the runs okay. He might hurt you in RBI's, because lead off hitter, but 50 is very low. It's probably a higher than 50. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it's 60. All right, so just keep that in mind if you had a Categories League, and you need RBIs. I guess if I were going to buy high on somebody,

it'd be Didi Gagorius, although at this point, it'd have to be really high. I think he's more like a top 60 player. I buy him as a really, really good player. I don't think he's a top 20 player or anything like that, but he's certainly not outside the top 100, which is around where he was going on draft day.

So I'll just say Didi. I don't think it's crazy to take Didi over Bregman at this point. I would not do. do that. I don't know if I would either, but why? I don't know why. Yeah, I don't have a good numbers

based argument to make here. I still believe more in Bregman's upside than D.D.'s upside. And a player that we're actually worried about. You. Hey, screw you. I'm a little worried about Scott White right now.

But I'm absolutely worried about you, Darvish. They put my Chris Towers cap on and just say that strikeout rate is generally more important than K per 9. And K per 9 can be really misleading when someone's allowing a lot of base runners. And so they pitch to more batters per inning. And so they get more strikeouts per inning. That's what's happened with you. You might look at it and say, yeah, he has a higher array, but he's okay.

Look at the strikeouts are still there. His 26.4% strikeout rate is the lowest of. of his career. His 9.4% swinging strike rate is way down, like two or three points from where he was when he was good, and he has an 11.4% walk rate, which is way up. I don't think U.Darvish is going to be bad all year, but I really don't think there's much of an argument

for ranking him in the top 15 starting pitchers anymore. There was nothing impressive about him yesterday. It wasn't like, oh, well, he looked good, but he just came up. He looked terrible. I am also concerned. It's annoying. You just have to go back to track record, I guess. He's a good pitcher every single year, basically.

And World Series, he was terrible. They said he was possibly tipping his pitches. I hope it's that simple. I still believe in Darvish, but I think what you're saying is he's not really that much of a buy-low right now. Or unless you can get him super cheap. Yeah, I would... I'm going to update my rankings sometime today or tomorrow.

I've already started on starting pitchers. And I don't know that you's going to be in my top 25. You'll probably be closer to 30. Is it going to be behind Godley and Snell and Bundy and Bundy and all them? Yes. All of them. See, I would not take Dylan Bundy over you, over you Darvish. You would really do that?

You probably wouldn't do it, but I would. You would not. I would. Wow. Wow. Let's do a Twitter poll See what we can do with the last 15 minutes I won't get that many votes

But I again I had a tough time coming up with somebody I'm actually worried about They probably shouldn't have been But I thought Scott was going to be on the segment But I never I never really wanted that many of the guys Who were so surprisingly good last year

And so far that is working out Now a few weeks ago I said I was worried about Chris Taylor And Taylor has turned it around So worried about doesn't mean we're, you know, projecting total doom, but I am worried about Marvin Gonzalez. And I just, is he good?

He had one good year. He's had one good year in his career. I know the Astros are the smartest organization in the world, but I'm definitely worried about Marvin Gonzalez. I think you have every reason to be worried about Marvin Gonzalez. Perfectly reasonable. Thank you. Who would you rather have rest of the season and hit the Twitter poll button?

You, Darvish. I spelled it wrong. U. Darvish or Dylan Fundy tweet. You's going to crush him. Yeah, probably. All right, Heath, let's talk about some more. I was caught you, Scott. Let's talk about some more pitchers and hitters from yesterday.

Can they be great again? Marcus Stroman, Louis Castillo, Danny Duffy, Drew Pomeranz, Lucas Gialito, Stroman Castillo, Duffy, Pomerant, Gialito. How many of them do you think can be great going forward? Okay, I like the way he changed that to going forward. You said Lucas Gialito, and I was trying to remember when he was great.

I think Stroman can be what he was before. I'm not sure that I'm going to go with great. Could he have an outlier of a season where he has a 3-ERA or right under? Sure. But I think he's a mid-3s-ZER. low strikeout high innings pitcher. And I think he'll remain that. I absolutely believe Luis Castillo can be great again.

Yes. Okay. I don't think anybody else here is going to be great. Not Pomeran's. Pomerant's been great two years ago. He's been great at run prevention two years in a row. He doesn't pitch deep into games. But he's been a must start two years in a row.

He's been a must start when he makes the starts. Duffy. based on yesterday's start More likely to have dropped him or added him And I know that sounds crazy because he gave up four home runs But I don't know There was some positives there I guess I might say neither

Okay Duffy 75% owned Lucas Gialito 48% owned What do you think of that ownership? That seems about right I'm more likely to add Gialito After that start than I am drop him Gialito I believe has Pits

Yeah, he has Pittsburgh and the Cubs on the road next week. Pittsburgh, you can home, Cubs on the road next week. 47% owned Gialito. He will be a two-star streamer. It's just points only, and you're not going to feel comfortable with that second one. Email of the day, we had number one. It was about Sean Nukum. Email the day, number two, is from Neil and Callie.

Were you on the show, Team Name Tuesday, were you on Team Name Tuesday or no? Yes, I was. So you heard While My VR Gently Weeps? Yes. Yes. And it didn't really get the rave reviews I thought it deserved. Right. So Neil and Cali has an alternative for While My VR Gently Weeps.

Okay. Now there's a stipulation. You need to have the following players on your team. And you probably do. You probably have at least a few teams with all of these guys. Kyle Hendrix, Ty Block, Jonathan, V.R., Craig Gentry, and Jamil Weeks. What? You need Kyle Hendricks, Ty Block, Jonathan, VR, Craig Gentry, and Jamio Weeks.

And then you can have the team name, Kyle Ty, VR, Gentry Weeks. That's terrible. And I would like you to explain to me the type of league where you would own all of those players. Well, what's the opposite of a dynasty league? Like one where you're actually going into the past to take players who are no longer in baseball. That's the Jamio Weeks League. Okay. Is he still playing baseball?

There's no way, right? I'm certainly he's still playing baseball. Jamio Weeks? Professional baseball? Like, well, define professional. Like major league baseball? No, no, I don't think so. Okay.

Yeah, I don't know what type of league you'd have to have there. But you'd have a terrible team. Let's go to some deep league targets. Are you interested in these guys? Matt Adams and Alex Verdugo owned in less than 25% of leagues. Matt Adams, Alex Verdugo. Yeah, absolutely. Matt Adams has been crushing baseballs for like a full year now,

so you probably need to stop doubting that. Ryan's ever been hitting the ball hard as well, but I think Adams is going to get the majority of the playing time for the foreseeable future. And Verdugo, I like the fact that they bring him up, and he's just like, he was hitting second last night. I think there's a lot of potential there. I wouldn't call it a must-ad, but definitely in deep leagues. No, Puee could be back in five days, but I still think they could get him in the lineup. I mean, he could certainly outperform Matt Kemp.

They could get Verdugo in the lineup. and they need a spark. So Verdugo's 23% owned. Adams is 10% owned. Adams sits against lefties. That's the one thing you have to keep in mind. Next week they have seven games, the Nationals, and they have at least two lefties.

And they have Tyson Ross, Zach Granky, Zach Godley. So it's kind of tough matchups for Adams in particular. But yes, look, it's 10% ownership, especially if you're in a daily league, start them against righties. How about these pitchers? They're owning 25% of leagues or less. Andrew Hini, or fewer, I never, Andrew Hini, Jose Arania, Brett Anderson, Tyler Anderson, Wade Miley.

I think Haney is the only one that I'm really interested in. This was a wild start where six innings, one run, and only strike out two Baltimore Orioles. So I wouldn't say that it was necessarily encouraging. But at 22% owned, I think there are definitely leagues where he could be usable that he's not owned in. I also have a Jamil Weeks update. Jamil.

Because we want to get all of... I don't know exactly how you to pronounce it right now because he is playing for the Ascereros de Montclova of the Mexican Baseball League. Well, then it's Jamile. Jemilea Weeks. I think I... Yeah, I did go to college with him, by the way.

Nice, nice dude. Nice dude playing some Mexican Baseball League action right now. Tyler Anderson gets whiffs. I know he pitches in Colorado, but he's actually been better at home in his career, I'm pretty sure. Tyler Anderson gets strikeouts. Not interested, though.

You'd rather have Hini? I'd rather have Hini than Anderson, yeah. We've been talking about sell-high candidates. I could make the case that all four, well, three of these four are sell highs. Keep on, keeping on. These guys just keep on doing it, man. Jorge Solair, Jed Lowry, Corey Dickerson,

and Francisco Sorvelli. Now, Solair is only 39% owned. But this is a guy like Kristen Vinoeva. He's crushing lefties. He's been not very good at all against Ritey's. He's got a 364 slug against Ritey. So he's walking against them, but that's it. And the Royals have faced a lot of lefties.

So that's Solair. Now, Lowry, Dickerson, and Sorvelli. Lowry's the number two second baseman. Dickerson's a top 13 outfielder. Cervale is a top four catcher. I mean, I think they're all probably sell high by the letter of the law, right? like they're not this good. But what do you think?

So there's really interesting to me because we wrote about him in Waverwire a lot over the last week and a half saying there's probably something pretty good coming and it came. I do think his batting average is definitely going to regress. He's not going to be anywhere close to a 300 hitter. I think he's probably closer to 250 or 260. But I kind of feel like there might be more power coming than we've seen so far. That's what he's been in his career. If he just strikes out 25% of the time and walks like this and the home runs do come, I'm not going to say that he can't be more valuable than he is right now.

Okay. So that's So there now. I just have a hard time believing with Jet Lowry and Survelli in particular that guys who are, Lowry is 34, Sorvelli's around that age, that they're just going to have these like massive career years. Jed Lowry's never hit more than 16 home runs. He has eight already. Cervelli's 32 years old, by the way.

I know that Cervale has made swing adjustments. I know that he's healthy. That's a big deal. But he's never been this good. Jed Lowry's never been this good. I want to see what I can get for them. I still think the problem is that perception, their names are Jed Lowry and Cervelli.

And so the perception in a month of this happens, is not going to move enough to where I can sell them really high. And I don't want to sell either of them kind of high because they are crushing the baseball. And Lowry was a good player last year. Like if he just regresses to slightly better than last year, I don't want to give that up for nothing. Yeah, I agree. I'm not saying they're going to be bad. But I still, maybe this is ball.

And I wouldn't make this trade because it's too risky. but I really still feel like Evan Gattis is going to be better than Francisco's Reilly going forward. Yeah, in Roto, I might make that trade. It would have to be in Roto. They're serious playing time concerns right now with Gattis. But I feel like he's going to get it right. It's been a very consistent hitter. Well, and the thing that helps him a lot is how bad Marwin has been.

Honestly, like, after their top three, they're not hitting. And Springer hasn't even been that good. They're not really hitting. Reddick has been good. Correa, Reddick, Altuve, Springer, whatever. But they're not really hitting that well. So they need Gattis. I think the Astros have scored about the seventh most runs in baseball.

They have a good lineup, but they're not killing it like we expected. Anything to say about Severino, Cory Klober, Michael Fulmer, Stephen Strasbourg? Severino is just absolutely awesome. And the Astros do this sometimes. They can strike out a lot from time to time, but he would. He was extremely dominant. I'm feeling a little bit more comfortable with Michael Fulmer in that range of starting pitcher that you're definitely going to keep on your roster.

Yeah, you'll have to start him every time, right? The very bottom of that range. Kenley Jansen gave up a run. Jeremy Jeffers got a save, 9% owned, but remember, Canebo was on his way back. He started a rehab assignment. Jeffers has a save in two straight games, but I would have to think, wasn't available for either one. Well, we've run out of time for some of the stuff I wanted to talk about.

Let's do today's matchups. Actually, we got the most of it. I'm proud of us, Heath. Very proud. I think you did a phenomenal job. I don't buy that. It doesn't sound sincere. How could I have sounded more sincere?

Like, what has to be wrong with your ego for me to say that and you just not say thank you? You're right. Sorry. Thank you. Thank you. You're the best. All right, Pirates Nationals. Trevor Williams.

People like Trevor Williams, but I don't think you do that much. At Jeremy Hellickson. Yeah, I don't want to start either one of these guys. I don't want to start anyone against the Nationals right now. No. Okay. We've got Jaime Garcia and Carlos Carasco. I would like to start Carlos Carasco, please.

Julio Taran at Jason Vargas. This is interesting because Taran's been better away from his home park over the last year and a half. He's been serviceable. I think I'll start for one. Yeah, and you've got to figure Cespitis won't have his necklace today. Cespitus won't have his necklace, and he has the best offense in baseball behind him,

so against Jason Vargas. Tanaka at McCullors. Start him. Mike fires at Skogland. I looked at this one a lot when I was looking for DFS purposes. I would guess one of these starting pitchers is going to be really good. I don't feel comfortable with either than the other one could give up eight runs. Oh, you must hate DFS today.

Only four night games. It's terrible. Alex Wood and Patrick Corby. Start them both. Start them. Joe be a genie tonight at Adam Plutcoe for the Indians. Blue Jays at Indians. No, thank you.

David Price at Mike Minor. Now, remember the Red Sox, until they saw Danny Duffy, Could not hit lefties. I did not ever believe that. They have some of the best hitters in baseball against lefties. Yes. Betts. J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogarts.

No. I don't want to start... Minor. I don't want to start minor. I'm going to start Price without question, but I do feel a little bit queasy about it. Okay. Twins at White Sox. Odarezi at Reynaldo Lopez.

I kind of think both of these guys get blown up here. Ooh. Chris Tillman and Who are you? Jaime Baria Baria. I think it's Baria. Baria.

Yeah. No. Shamaniah, Wade the Blanc. Who is pitching tonight? Where are all these guys coming from? Joe Beagini, Adam, what's your name? Adam Plutco,

Baria, Baria, the Blanc? I just, what is happening? My goodness. Yeah, those are all actual names of baseball players. This reminds me of the game that we played last year, where you had to tell me who a guy was and what team he played for. Yes.

I think we should play that again. Okay, tomorrow, bring it on. Here's some emails to end the show. Real quick from Mike Koss. I heard a wild stat while watching the DeBacks Dodgers game. Paul Goldsman has struck out 20 times in his last 47 at Bats. Are you concerned about Paul Goldschmidt? I'm a little bit concerned

just because of the reasons we were concerned before the season but I still think he's I mean he's still my number one first baseman so there's that from Brian who will have a better season Alex Verdugo or David Dahl Dahl From Paul will Vladimir Jr. get called up

What month would you guess it happens If I had to pick like any month or no I'd probably pick no but if I was going to say yes, it would be June. Okay. Dear Ken, Edgar, and Randy. Ken Edgar and Randy. Hall of Fame Plus?

Hall of Fame Mariners? Yeah, I mean, they've got to be mariners. This is Keegan, by the way, from St. George, Utah. I gave up Blake Snell and Kenta Maeda for Chris Davis. Did I make a huge mistake? Should I be worried about K.Riss Davis? Gave up Snell and Maida for Chris Davis. You might be made a huge mistake.

just because you get rid of Blake Snell. I think it's fair, though. I mean, I think it's a good trade. I'm not worried about Davis. He's had, he's had like a seven-game slump, but before this he was batting 250 and slugging over 500, like he always does. I think it's Wade LeBlanc tonight.

He's probably going to don't. There you go. Bobby from Charlotte. Hey, Mark, Kevin, and Lori. Ooh, I know that. That's leftovers. Where do you rank Chris Taylor in the shortstop rankings? Five-by-five Roto.

Something I'm going to have to decide today, isn't it, when I update my rankings? It is. He's a starter, but I would say he's outside of the top 9 for sure. 11th. Also, Bobby says I've been listening to the podcast for about five years now, typically on the way to and from work, always at 1.5 speed, 1.5x speed. I just listened on the computer for the first time at normal speed,

and good Lord, you all talk slow. Is this on purpose? As I assume most listeners use the 1.5x speed? Or is it that I am so used to the 1.5x that you all sound like hillbillies at normal speed? I'm pretty sure it's you. It's you not us. It's you.

I don't speak slowly at all. And that's it for today's show. We'll get Scott White back tomorrow. Sorry Scott White. Heath, thank you very much. All of you out there, thank you very much. talk about.