Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/07: Legitometer, Rookie Watch, Grand Slams and More (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 7, 2019

Anthony DeSclafani and Martin Perez rewarded Fantasy owners yesterday, but can they keep it up? Who else stood out on Monday (7:25)? We discuss Trevor Bauer and Chris Paddack before dusting off the Legitometer (14:00) for James McCann, Jorge Polanco and Nick Markakis ... Welcoming back (21:00) Matt Olson and Shohei Ohtani and celebrating the grand slams (28:24) of Tommy Pham, Jonathan Villar and Denny's restaurants ... Advanced stats discussion (34:10), Worryometer for five key players (40:00), our thoughts on relevant rookies (46:00) like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nick Senzel and Victor Robles, more from Monday (53:00) and Team Name Tuesday (55:00) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast from CBS Sports. Welcome to a fantasy question. Email Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Welcome everybody to the Tuesday edition of Fantasy Baseball today. It's May 7th. Let's rock and roll. I'm Adam Mazer with Chris Towers and Scott White. What's up, Scott White? How are you today? I think I'm pretty good. I think I'm pretty good. I think we got a fun show.

You think so? Yeah. I need to check. Be sure. We need you today. Yeah, no, I feel good. I feel good. I'm excited.

We got, you know, two pitchers who everybody was excited to pick up. They both did very well yesterday. Of course, we'll talk about them, Disclavani and Martine Perez. I know Chris is going to want to talk about Chris Paddock and any other people named Chris. Any other Chris is you want to talk about? Chris Klein. Chris Martin, Chris Columbo. I don't know if that's a real thing.

Chris Columbus. Correct one of the Harry Potter movies, I think. Also, Home Alone. Home Alone. There you go. Another in a great lineages of Chris's going back millennia. Home Alone. I thought that was a John Hughes.

He didn't direct that one? John Hughes wrote it. Part of the John Hughes extended cinematic universe. Okay, okay. Okay. So usually I ask you guys who the standouts were from the previous day. But I know you're going to talk about Anthony DiSclofani and Martine Perez. So I thought, why don't we just get the legitometer out and see how legit these two guys are? So Anthony DiClofani of my hometown, Scott gets to brag about, I think it's Dwight Smith who went to your high school, right?

Yeah. Yeah, Dwight Smith Jr. His dad didn't it. but the one playing currently did. Well, Anthony DiSkofani is from Coral Springs, Florida. We didn't go to the same high school, but we're from the same town. I think I'm going to double check on that. Yes, who's more legit? Where are they on the Legitometer? Zero to 10.

Deisgafani, six innings, three earn runs, eight strikeouts against San Francisco. Martine Perez, seven, scoreless, nine strikeouts, 15 swinging strikes at Toronto. Scott White, Legitometer for these two guys. Well, I still say Desclothani's more legit because this was kind of new in terms of Perez missing all these bats. And obviously it was a favorable match. It was a favorable matchup for both. But, you know, obviously if I picked up Perez for the two-star weeks, we'll see how the second one goes.

But if it's anything like this first one with the kind of run he's been on recently, I can't imagine I would be putting him back in the, Waver Wire Pool because he's doing things differently enough that you could see how this might be a real transformation for him. And yeah, he's been given some length here recently, so that's exciting stuff. Anthony DiScoffani is most certainly not from my hometown. I don't know where that came from. He is from New Jersey. It's not as interesting if you're from down here. Like half of baseball is from this area. Well, I know Anthony Rizzo is from like Coral Springs, Eric Cosmer is from Cooper City. Yeah.

Maybe I just got my Anthony's confused, but wow, I weigh off on that. So, Chris, you want to weigh on? You're thinking of newfound glory, Adam. That's what you were thinking of. Thank you. Would you like to weigh it on Discoffani and Bartide Perez? Sure. I'm trying to figure out how to calibrate this, because I do think Anthony Disclothani

is probably more likely to be a better pitcher moving forward, but I think the apparent improvements that Martine Perez has made are more legitimate. I don't really see much of a reason when you dive into Anthony DiScliffeani's, you know, pitch usage or velocity. He doesn't really look like a significantly different pitcher than he has in the past. And there have been points in the past where we've liked him, but it's more as a, you know, maybe this guy can give us a mid-to-high-3 ZRA and be useful, but certainly, Certainly not a must start, maybe not even a must-own guy. Whereas Martin Perez has gone, I think, from legitimately worthless in fantasy to someone who,

in a two-star week against favorable matchups, I think he's improved enough that he's worth considering there. That's it. That's all you? That's all you're willing to go. What I've seen from Medescoffani is he's kind of trimmed the fat in his arsenal, kind of keep focused in on the pitches that have the best. that have the best swing and miss potential for him specifically the four seamer and the slider and his swinging strike rate is up significantly it's by far a career high for him so far

but his slider usage is actually down yeah like he's throwing his curveball more but his curveball hasn't really been okay so i had the wrong pitch so i had the wrong pitch but you know he's he's cut way back on the two seamer he's stopped throwing the change up almost entirely and And yeah, he's getting more swinging strikes as a result. Okay, so maybe the one thing, maybe the slider's a little more of a cutter. Maybe that's one thing. And Martin Perez is throwing a brand new cutter that has been really good. I think he got a bunch of swinging misses on his changeup last night as well.

And his velocity's up two miles per hour. So when I'm looking at what has Martine Perez improved or changed, I think there's more to grab onto there with him than Descalvani. but I do think Descophani is probably more likely to give you a useful high 3 ZER. So if either of them were available in any of your leagues, would you make sure that you added Deisgafani and Perez? Do you think they're must-own? No, they're not must-own.

Depends on what the next matchup is. Well, this weekend, they both have good matchups. Discafani has the Giants again, and Perez has Detroit. Next week, they have tougher matchups. Discofani has the Giants. sorry, the Dodgers. And Perez is at Seattle. I think at Seattle is not such a bad matchup.

I think Seattle not so good at home. I can double check on that. I think they score a lot more runs on the road. Yeah. I think I'd rather have Perez for the next two starts, and I'm not 100% sure either one. Two starts from now is going to be the guy that we look at and say, oh yeah, he needs to be on your roster.

There's still a lot of risk with both. Okay. I got more on the Legitometer coming up. I'll talk about James McCann. He's 38% owned. Jorge Polanco. Where Jorge Polanco ranks among short stops, he's batting 317 with six home runs. Where he ranks among shortstops might really surprise you. Nick Marcaquis, just doing it again. He's a top 20 outfielder like he was last year. And last year he was, well, actually last year he was 30th in Roto and 12th in points.

So Nick Markechakas is someone whose value changes so much depending on format. But let me get standouts from you. got anyone jumped out of you from Monday's games? So, let's see here. Sounded like you were going into your buttress. Vince Velasquez

was pretty awful for a second straight start, so I'm kind of kind of not, like, the thing about Vince Velasquez is kind of what I've been saying about Joey Lucasey. If they're going to do this thing where they don't let him pitch a third time through the order and you know the innings are going to be suppressed and the wins potential and all of that,

The ratios need to be very strong. And as with Joey Lucchese, that is not looking like such a sure thing anymore. So Belasquez might be somebody I'm willing to sacrifice for either Descliffeani or Martin Perez, just trying to corner the breakout in that way. Yeah. Yeah, he was pretty bad. That was really disappointing. Chris, standout? Obviously the most promising thing we saw yesterday was Trevor Bauer only had one walk.

I think we can all agree. Jeez, man. That was the good thing. I was pretty disappointed in Trevor Bauer when he gave up four runs against the Marlins, but at least he was able to get a decent start out of that. That was seven innings, four runs, four walks, ten strikeouts. That was last time out. This time he gets crushed, ten hits, seven run runs, eight runs total,

one walk, seven strikeouts, two home runs allowed against the white. sucks. What'd you say? I don't think it's anything. Like, I guess he ended that streak where he hadn't given up more than four-earned runs. It was like 60 straight starts or something. But I don't think it's anything. He's really good. The peripherals are still really good. The walk rate has been up, but that there was only one. This one. Yeah, no, that's, that's it. Exactly. Only one walked here. This is an improvement. We should talk about Chris Paddock. He was incredible last night. And something that I was thinking, he pitched seven and two-thirds

innings. I think he's gone seven innings. Two straight games now? Two out of three. Six plus and four straight. And maybe your thought is, oh, he's going to hit that innings limit. His innings limit's probably not, well, I guess it depends. If they keep allowing him to only throw 90 to 91 pitches,

yesterday was 91 pitches, it was a career high. And he can keep getting through six innings. Then I don't think the innings limits that big of a concern because they are being so judicious with his pitch counts. And maybe for Paddock, that can mean that he is, I mean, he's due for some regression and maybe he can't keep it up. But I actually, I find that pretty promising. He's not going to keep up a sub two ERA,

but he does look legitimately great. last night was so much fun. I don't know if you guys actually watched the game, but he just decided because Pete Alonzo won and our rookie of the month in April, that he was just going to embarrass Pete Alonzo. And the, no, I'm serious. Like the first, I was looking at it through the first two plate appearances that Pete Alonzo had thrown or had. And Chris Panic's average fastball velocity to non-Ped Alonzo hitters was like 94.6 miles per hour, which is about where he has been. And to Petalanzo, it was 96.9 miles per hour. He threw his two hardest pitches of the season, both forcing fastballs up to strike Petalanzo out in his first two plate

appearances, 98 and 97.2 miles per hour. Chris Paddock is so much fun. I did not know this dude had all this in him. I didn't know he had all this personality, all this swagger on the mound, all this competitive fire, and it makes him so much more fun to watch in addition to him being totally unhiddable. I'm looking, so I didn't see this game.

I watched Martin Perez. I watched some of the Yankees game, a little bit of the Red Sox game, but I went to sleep early enough. I didn't watch this game. But I did watch the highlights of his strikeouts, and I noticed that what he's, struck out, because I went back, I'm confirming now, because when you said the thing about Pete Alonzo,

when Chris Paddock struck out Pete Alonzo in, like, the first inning, and now I'm looking at it again, the second time he struck about, he got so fired up. Yeah. And I think those were only two times he looked at his own dugout, he was like, ah, it's like going crazy. It was hilarious. Yeah, he is so much fun. And also 21 swing strikes yesterday. Okay, okay. So let's, Scott, let's talk about rankings with Chris Paddock. Because, you know, the innings are one thing, but the pitches. 91 was, like Chris said, a career high. He has to be so good to get to seven innings.

Right now I see you have him 45th. That's right behind Darvish, Kintana, Armand, Michaelis, and then it's Chris Paddock. Is there a rankings adjustment coming? What do you think about him, the rest of season? Yeah, I'll move him up some. And I get what Chris is saying. I also get what you're saying,

where I don't know that the threshold necessarily has to be seven innings with the way the rest of the league is going, but six, you want the minimum required for a quality start because not only in some leagues does that matter in a direct way, but it also greatly improves the pitcher's win potential, which in traditional fantasy leagues, wins are still, you know, whether the pitcher wins or loses is still the most important thing

in terms of whether it was a productive day for him or not. So that's something that, he's going to have to be like if his ERA is not going to stay in the mid-ones then that means there's going to be some inefficiency in his future and I am a little more skeptical that he's going to be able to last beyond like July unless there's a really deliberate effort to limit his his innings between now and then or there's an IEL stent or something like that so I would still consider him as sell high can't candidate. Obviously, when I say sell high, we're talking very high. Maybe you can pair him with an extra outfielder or something and get one of those genuinely elite arms right now, since that's what he looks like at the moment. So that's what I'd be trying to do as a paddock owner right now. All right. Let's get back to the legit ometer now. Here are some standouts from yesterday, and you tell me how legit they are. Zero to 10. Zero, you are not interested in owning. 10 is a must-own player. 38% owned, number 13 catcher in points, number 9 in Roto, but has been playing more lately, including a couple of starts at DH. James McCann, 0 to 10, Chris Towers.

It probably has to be a 10, right? No. 8, because there are some, like, he has to be owned in two catcher leagues, 100%. And are we sure he's not a top 12 catcher? No, but I mean, I am sure he has not been a good hitter in his career. Sure, but he's crushing the ball right now. He's hitting the ball really hard. Like, his expected batting average is 281, expected slugging, 476.

It's not a ton of just good luck. Maybe he can't keep it going. Maybe there's not a real change in skill, but it's catcher. Like there aren't enough guys. Are there 12 guys who can do a month like this? Okay, so I think it's a separate discussion. The must own aspect agreed, the legit aspect, just talking about the performance of McCann. You know, how legit is McCann and that you're going to pick them up, but that you're going to have them in your lineup rest of season, you know what I mean?

I mean, five. Yeah, like Chris is saying, I mean, the indicators aren't all, this is just lucky. There is some, at least what we normally regard as indicators of skill change. Now, there's enough of a track record of futility there that it's fair to question them, but also like Chris is saying. You know, we talk a lot about like streakiness and luck, but you can just be dialed in for a month. You know, like that's one thing to keep in mind with those skills-based indicate. All right. All right.

So look, pick them up, but I think, you know, don't expect James to can to win your league, but be aware that he's playing more lately and that he's only. 38% own and it's time to drop Danny Jansen for him. Would you drop like Austin Barnes for him? Sure. Okay. For James who can. Okay. Next up. Scott, you want to think about that? I want it now, but I especially like James, Austin Barnes. Jorge Polanco. Jorge Palanco's having a really nice year. He's the number nine shortstop in points leagues, but he's number 17 in Rodo. How could this be? Well, he probably profiles as a points league guy. He doesn't steal. But actually he hasn't stolen, but he can steal you some bases.

But good plate discipline for Polanco, doubles, triples kind of player. But also, he has, he's been really bad in two categories. No steals this year and only 12 RBIs, which is so weird for a guy who has six home runs and a 317 batting average in one of the best lineups at baseball. But he's two for 23 with runners in scoring position and bat's second for the twins. Anyway, the legitometer, Scott, zero to ten on Jorge Polanco. I'll give it like a seven. I mean, there's not a league I'm in where I would let him go available.

And he's always been a great line drive guy, but this year, the fly ball percentages up. The strikeouts are down. They're both really good as, you know, just in kind of like a general sense. And, you know, for as impressive as he's been percentage-wise, the ex-WOBA and the Wobah are very close. Like, the stat-cast data backs up what he's doing so far. It could be another situation like with the James McCann where we're like, maybe he's just dialed in and it's not actual skill change. But considering he's in his mid-20s, I'm allowing room for it to be a genuine breakthrough for Jorge Polanco.

All right, that's Jorge Polanco. Last one. We'll go to Chris for this on the Legitometer. I get angry when Nick Markechakis does well. I just don't want him to be good. I know. It's really mean. I know.

I'm sorry. But he's number 13. I don't. I'm sure. You like it very much. Number 13 outfielder in points. He was number 12 last year. Number 18 outfielder in Roto, he was number 30 last year.

This guy never steals. He has not hit more than 15 home runs since 2009. He has not stolen more than four bases since 2011. Last year, Markechis slugged 440. That was his first year with a slugging percentage higher than 397 since 2012. Okay, Chris, zero to ten on the legitometer for Nick Markechus. I haven't seen a birth certificate or like a passport or anything, but I'm 10 out of 10 that he is Nick Markechakas. And you can take that for whatever you think it means.

He's not a useless player. He's not going to keep this up. year. He was incredible for the first like three, three and a half months of the season and then fell back to Earth and was kind of useless the last couple of months. I think he'll have his uses, but you're looking at a fairly thin line between a useful Nick Marcacus and a not useful Nick Marcagis, especially in a roto league, because like you said, it's basically just a batting average and it's a question of whether he can really be a not 331. hitter, but if he can be a 2.95 hitter, and where he bats in the lineup, he'll get some

RBI. That's probably all you can really expect out of it. Okay. You didn't give me a number, but that's okay. It was a very good... Oh, I did. You did? Yeah, he's 10 out of 10 on the Nick Markega. Markega's obitur. Okay, thank you. He's always going to be 10 out of 10 there. We got a lot more to get to. Matt Olson's coming back today. We'll talk about what we expect from him. He's actually only owned in 68% of leagues. Taking a quick break on fantasy baseball today, we'll come right back. All right, we got two players returning today.

Very excited about one of them. And then the other one's Matt Olson, who is fairly excited about, but let's play some music. All right, Anthony Rendon should be back today. And to Matt Olson, we say, You are 68% owned.

Number 8. First Baseman in Points League last year, number 12 in Roto. He played 162 games. And, yeah, he's got pop. So he had 29 home runs last year, 247 batting average. All right, Scott, what do you expect from Matt Olson? And is his ownership level just insulting at 68%? I don't think it's insulting, especially when you consider that it's the CBS ownership

percentage. and there are an awful lot of points leagues in CBS leagues. That's the format where I'm not totally positive. I'd be able to make a spot for him, especially given... And most of my points teams have a first basement on the bench already, just because there have been so many interesting players emerging at this position this year, more than enough to go around. I expect for the first four to six weeks, based on what we saw from Justin Turner last year.

and Yuli Guriel, guys coming back from the same injury, the broken hamate bone. I expect Matt Olson's power will be limited for four to six weeks. And considering that is really the only thing he brings to the table, he brings it in big doses, but that's basically it. In points league especially, I don't have much incentive to activate him, like to start him right away. Roto leagues, you know, obviously there are more lineup spots to fill. It's easier to justify. And you don't have to worry about the strikeouts that are likely going to come with the package.

So that's my stance on also. Definitely must own in categories leagues, but points leagues, I don't know that I'd go that far with them. All right. So who would you rather have Matt Olson or Max Muncie? I would rather have Muncie, yeah. Okay, Matt Olson or Josh Bell? Josh Bell. Matt Olson or Dan Vogelbach

I'm going to say Vogelbach still I'll go Olson Or excuse me Matt Olson or Tray Mancini Olson Yeah Yeah Olson Okay I was reminded of something by Chris Towers Chris we have one more big time

Welcome back to give today Should have been number one It should have been Who are we welcoming back? Show Hey O Tani maybe I mean we're not It's not 100% sure but he returned to the Angels

and there is an expectation that if all goes well, he could be back in the lineup as early as Tuesday. And they've said he's going to face lefties. This could be a massive deal because, as we saw last year, he established himself as one of the better power hitters in baseball last season.

And once he stopped pitching, he was stealing bases. There is, I don't need to tell anyone this, but there's significant potential with Shoah O'Toney. Yeah. I do wonder, because we did see him after it was clear. He was done pitching. He was going to need Tommy John surgery last year. So basically all of September, he played every single day at DH.

Lefties, righty. They faced a lot of lefties in September, too. So we saw them willing to do this before, and he was great. September was an awesome month for him. It's just impossible to know how the rehabilitation, process from Tommy John's surgery is going to impact him for all the steps he'll need along the way in terms of throwing what kind of what way that might impact is playing time there's just no precedent for that like we've never seen a position player or a batter I should say

not really a position player rehabbing as a pitcher while still playing major league games I don't know. Obviously, the potential is exciting. He's must own all of that. But I'm reluctant to conclude he's an everyday player right away. Yeah, I would expect a day off or two pretty regularly so he can get his long, but he's going to be able to get his long toss in before games. So it'll be more like maybe he gets a day off to throw a bullpen session once he gets to that point. But, you know, they're not going to like send him on a rehab assignment and have him pitching. in games.

No, I just I just meant, like Arizona Fall League or something. My surgically, my surgically repaired arm is tired today because I was throwing. Sure. I need the day off. Yeah, I would, but given the other options,

I would expect pretty consistent playing time. Okay, Scott, what a wimp you are. God, you and your poor surgically repaired arm. Take a break, Scott White. Work out, Scott. Come on. Some of those bands. I don't know what they're called.

Waded balls. Yeah, get weighted balls and bands. All right. Injuries, news and notes. Austin Meadows could be back this weekend. Carlos Rodon might need Tommy John surgery. We already knew that, but it's been recommended by one doctor. Kevin Gosman is suspended for five games.

He is appealing the suspension. You wished that he had been suspended and didn't appeal and didn't start last night because it was terrible for Gosman. Rafael Devers had been on base 19 straight games. That streak is over. Eric Sogard. I know we don't talk about him a lot. But he had gone 41 played appearances without a strikeout.

And that was the longest active streak in baseball. That's Eric Sogarde. And he actually struck out at least twice against Martine Perez yesterday. Give you an idea of how well Perez was pitching. David Price is on the IL with elbow tendonitis. He says it's no big deal. He could miss one or two starts. But I think, you know, it's David Price and an elbow injury.

So it's not nothing here. but hopefully it's just a minor thing. Let's see, we got catcher news. Jan Goams for the Nationals, he has a left forearm contusion. And Jason Castro for the twins is day-to-day after being hit by a pitch on the foot. If those were more serious injuries, not like I'm hoping for that. But if they were, you would have more playing time for Kurt Suzuki and even more for Mitch Garver. But it seems like those are just day-to-day things.

Ryssel Iglesias, Chris, is not happy about being used in Thai games. Are you concerned? This is one of the downsides of the analytic revolution, I guess, is sometimes guys are comfortable in roles. And in the specific case of closers not being used in save situations, it costs them money. So I get being upset about that for sure. As far as whether I'm concerned, I would hope it means that they might put him in situations he's a little happier with and a little more comfortable with and maybe it allows him to get a few more saves.

All right. It's Rice-Leglacius. Leonis Martin expected back today from a hamstring injury. Taiwan Walker through four innings and extended spring training start. Does anybody have Taiwan Walker stashed away? I don't think I do in any leagues. Scott and I did in the 16-team league, but then we cut them loose. Yeah.

And I do in an in a lonely league, but not. I mean, they're, they're, like obviously, If you have an unoccupied I-L spot, you might as well fill it, but I don't have, in most of my leagues, I don't have an unoccupied I-O-O-O-S spot. Okay. Taiwan Walker. And last two notes, A.J. Pollock out at least six weeks, and Cody Bellinger is going to play mostly right field after dislocating his shoulder at first base. We had some grand slams yesterday, so let's talk about those grand slams. And we're going to do a rookie watch in a little bit, and some woriometers from our emailers.

Grand Slam's Tommy Fam. Grand Slam, his fifth home run of the year. He's batting 302 with five homers and six steals. Tommy Fam is a top 20 outfielder. And Jonathan V.R. hit a Grand Slam, and he is now the number seven second baseman in both points leagues and Roto leagues. And then I wanted to talk about the Denny's Grand Slam, just to see how you guys feel about that beautiful breakfast.

Scott, what do you want to hit with Tommy Fam and Jonathan V.R. Does anything jump out of you? I mean, I think those who drafted them have gotten the best case scenario from both. There was reason maybe to wonder if they were going to be their best selves, but they have been so far. And, you know, I'm not inclined to shop either right now. I'm happy to just sit back and enjoy the ride because we knew this was within their skill set. Okay. And then, Chris, the Denny's Grand Slam, they have a lot of Grand Slams.

But the one I want to talk about is the Grand Slam Slugger. I think it's appropriate for the fantasy baseball today podcast. Here's what you get with the Grand Slam Slugger. You get buttermilk pancakes, eggs. Oh, yeah. Bacon, strips, and sausage links. And this is served with hash browns or your choice of bread, plus coffee and juice.

What's that? Why do you need bread with the pancake? You get like toast. Well, maybe you get like an eggs over easy. you want to dip your toast in the yolk. Yeah, you could do that, right. But coffee and juice, that's a nice, this is a lot of stuff here.

Now, I saw something, there's an asterisk on the website where next to eggs. It says product availability may vary by location. If I went to Denny's and they didn't have eggs. I'm not sure. Where are you going that doesn't have eggs? You would never ever. Honestly, is there like an egg short?

that I wasn't aware of? Not of Denny's. I mean, you would never... I figured Denny's gets first tick for eggs. Yeah, right? I can understand maybe next to the pork products, but... That is too much. That's too much.

That's too much food. Too much? I'm not a huge breakfast guy anyway. I think, like, pancakes and syrup is dessert. Not breakfast. And we should stop, like, kidding ourselves. We're a nation of children.

But that's just too much food. I do like a grand sandwich. I don't think I've had. had one in like 10 years and I don't think I've had one sober ever but I like a grand sandwich. There's nothing like the big breakfast though, man, when you, when you're on vacation and you wake up at like 10 a.m. and you're like, I'm not going to, I'm not going to make time for lunch. Let's just, let's just slam down to breakfast.

Is that early on vacation? No, that's that just like ruins your day. You can't move. 10 a.m.? It's not that early anymore, Chris. You're at your 30s. I could eat an entire Grand Slam. That is really not that way.

It's not that much food. Buttermaic, pancakes, eggs, bacon, and sausage. I don't know if I'd get the hash browns. I'd get the toast. I get toast. Great. Why would you not get the hash browns? I prefer carbs guys.

Why would you opt for toast over hash browns? It's ridiculous. That is ridiculous. No, I, no. I'm sticking with that. I prefer the toast. Okay. We got three emails that I want to read here.

A lot more to get to. Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. the email address. One more quick break on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, we are going to read about ex-Woba and baseball savant stuff and some advanced stats and, you know, and Howie Kendrick. So how about that? We'll be right back on fantasy baseball today. Our email of the day comes from Matt in Kansas City. This is actually email of the day number one of three. How much weight do you put on things like expected batting average and ex-woba from baseball Savant with guys like Jordie Mercer that are basically unowned. His expected stats are very high,

but obviously Mercer doesn't have a history of much production. Is he worth a look in a real deep league? And how legit is Howie Kendrick? So there are a lot of questions here. But yeah, I think the first thing is how much weight do you put into expected stats. Well, I'm starting to come around to ex-Woba, and I haven't, I don't have enough experience with it to have a good sense of how reliable it is. I'm just only beginning to in it, but it seems like a very useful shortcut stat in terms of, oh, I could weigh these five different

things and try to come out with the conclusion, or I could just look at this one stat and they've done it for me. It is true that Jordy Mercer's ex-Woba is 397. Now, here's the thing about Wobah for the uninitiated. It's scaled like

on-base percentage. It's weighted on-base average, Wobah. So it's scaled like on base average, meaning a 400 Wobah is amazing and a 300 Wobah is terrible. So 397 is very good. His actual Wobah is 270, which is terrible, and that's closer to what we expect from Jordie Mercer. I don't really, I wonder why it is so high. His barrel percentage is unusually high, and so is his hard hit percentage. So he's made a lot of hard contact early on here.

And I've noticed that does have an impact, a pretty significant impact on that number. I see no reason to believe it's sustainable for Jordy Mercer, though, specifically. Yeah, I think, like, X-Woba, X-SL, X-Badding average, all these expected stats. And there's a whole constellation of them that, you know, take into account not just stack-ass data, but the sports info solutions data that you find on fan-gras. drafts with hard hit, line drive, etc. They are, I think, a pretty good measure of what should have happened in the past. I'm not 100% sure that they are a great measure of what is going to happen in the future.

And that's just like any other stat, you know, like we have some stats that are a little more predictive and maybe this is more predictive than batting average, let's say. But as I said earlier in the podcast, skills can fluctuate too. know, the example I always go with is 2017, I think, when we had Yonder Alonzo, Justin Smoke, and Justin Boar, all had a really good season and you looked under the hood. They were hitting the ball hard. All these things seemed to indicate that this was sustainable. But what they didn't take into account was that these guys just maybe had good years.

Maybe they had made an adjustment. The pitchers hadn't figured out yet. But it's just because these underlying stats, suggest that something is real. It's not necessarily the same thing as sustainable, if that makes sense. Yeah, sure. All right. The second part of this question is Howie Kendrick, for real.

Will he get playing time with Anthony Rendonback? I think he will the way he's hitting because I think he'll play first base as he did yesterday. But is Howie Kendrick for real? I'm going to say that if you need batting average, then yeah, then Howie Kendrick's your man. He's only 18% owned. Anybody think differently or that he's maybe. even more than just batting average? No.

But you do think that Howie Kendrick could get you batting average. Yeah, I saw a really good tweet yesterday that like Howie Kendrick is going to hit 29, 3.30, 410 until the oceans rise and cover all the land in the world.

And that sounds about right. Like that's, I don't think he's a great hitter, but he's going to hit for average because he puts the barrel on the ball. All right. I'm curious where he's going to play when Rendon is back. I guess maybe he could move to first base. Come on.

I just said that. Come on, Scott. I just said that. Where does he play when Ryan Zimmerman's back? That's the better question. Yes. Yes. Well, yeah.

I don't know long term that because, you know, Trey Turn will be back. Maybe they could stick him in the outfield. All right. Email the day number two is from Derek and Poseyville. Scott, thank you for your adobello. Mondesie pick. I haven't been in both my leagues. You are the prognosticator of prognosticators. Oh, you are too kind, sir.

I want to bring something up. Mondesee is the number two shortstop and points, number three in Roto. The top three short stops in Roto have a combined 21 walks to 108 strikeouts. Remember when plate discipline was like the most important stat for us? Harvey Baez, Tim Anderson, and Alberto Mondesi do not care about plate discipline, nor do they care about how much you care about plate discipline.

I'd be a little bit surprised if that was the top three for the rest of the season. But they've all, especially in Roto, they all have the kind of skill set that really stands out in Roto a format that doesn't directly care about plate discipline. Yeah, right, not at all.

All right, email of the day number three is from John in Seattle. The following guys have had dreadful starts to the year. We all had to invest high picks in these guys, and I feel all four of you on the show have understated just how big of a disappointment these players have been so far. Worryometer on the following six players. Matt Carpenter. I'll go like three maybe. I mean, he's doing the Matt Carpenter.

He's doing the Matt Carpenter thing where, oh, what's wrong with this guy? Oh, his ratios are great. I mean, how many years in a row is that going to happen? Bailow? Bileau on Carpenter? Yeah, of course. He's a byloo. Okay.

Did we just get quantum leaped into every year of the last half decade? I don't know. Because I don't, what? I think quantum leap was the one where, like, the guy, like, gets, like, he time travels, but it's like into another person's body in the past. And so do I have to explain the joke from here? No. Okay, let's go to our next guy.

Paul Goldsmith. Yeah, okay, we haven't really talked about this one. It got off to a great start, but he's actually the number 17 first baseman of points leagues, number 14 in Roto, striking out a ton, 43 strikeouts and 35 games. Last 11 games, Goldschmidt is batting 186 with no extra base hits, one walk, 14 strikeouts, first 24.

games he did have a 966 OPS. Last thing to point out on Goldsmith, he has nine home runs this year and five of them came at Miller Park. Worryometer on Paul Goldsmith, zero to ten. Does Christian Alton has one home run outside of Miller Park, right? Yeah. One. But Paul Gosman... But you know Paul Goldsmith doesn't play at Miller Park, right? Like, go and yelling

does. Hold on, what? Yeah. Yes, I don't know. You quad. Paul Goldschmidt. We did this last year. Yeah. I mean, remember his status. at the end of May last year. We're only at the beginning of May, and the stats look much, much better. You know, he does have a high strikeout total,

but his actual K percentage is only slightly up from last year, which was a career worst, but it's not like it's so far out of line that there's real reason for concern there. Joey Vado. People are dropping Joey Vado, understandably. I still think it's a bit hasty, but zero to 10 on the Vado areaometer.

So that's more like a five or six for me. I'm not to the point where I drop him either, but you can understand it in shallower leagues, especially given that you can only start one, maybe two first basemen in a shallower league, and there are a lot out there to start. So I kind of get it, but at the same time, like, Joey Votto deserves such a leash.

And I know last year was disappointed, pointing too, but still, like, I don't know, Chris, help me out here. How to how to put it at this point? Well, I have Joey Votto in our 2014 Dynasty League, and I've benched him the last two weeks for Matt Carpenter and Edwin and Carnaccion, so I'm definitely not where I wanted to be on him, but I don't know, he, he's still, like, maybe he has just lost. And we cannot discount that possibility. But given how long the track record was, how much better, even than this he was last season, I can't give up yet.

But no, I'm fine sitting him until he figured it out. I just do think he will figure it out. Yeah, like the quality of contact is still really good. And like, we've seen Joey Vaugh, like, back in the years where we weren't worried about him, we've seen him have stretches this long where he looks just completely. incompetent at the plate and then he ends up hitting 320 for the year you know so like it's it makes it that that's all the more reason to to hold out hope for him yeah i i do worry i don't know where they're going to hit him all year but he mostly leads off now i think he batted second yesterday they

had senzel leading off against a lefty i do worry about rbis with him so just keep that in mind like you want a first basement of drive and runs joe ivato has six rbis in 33 games this is an unbelievable stat. So keep that in my way. I think that's kind of my optic. No, I think if he's going to lead off, then the score runs. Okay, so fine, but just understand,

like if you are weak in RBI's and you're like, well, I'm going to buy low on Joey Votto. He might not help you in RBI's this year. I'm just pointing it out. We got a lot more. So Jose Altuvae, 0 to 10. Go ahead, quick. Two, but there are some concerning signs

in his batted ball profile. He's hitting a ton of, of infield fly balls, which are different than pop-ups. There's not like, for the most part, he still looks pretty good. He's hitting the ball. Actually, in terms of his hard hit percentage, harder than he has in the past, there's just some inconsistency in his bat at ball profile. Maybe, you know, he's, we could look into the data and see maybe he's struggling with a specific

type of pitch or something specific in the strike zone. but again, another guy, Al Tuve, who is hitting the ball hard enough that I'm, I believe he'll figure it out. Yeah, I hope he starts running. And Scott, I'll skip Travis Shaw and just go to you on Chris Bryant. Chris Bryant, believe it or not, is number seven third baseman in points leagues because plate discipline is so good. Number 17 in Roto, he has seven walks in his last six games. He's a home run in two straight games.

Zero to ten on Chris Bryant. Yeah, he looks like he's starting to come. out of it a bit. So that lowers it. He may have been a five before that for me because of the power production. Obviously, it was a problem last year and two years

ago. It was even then. But that was like a three. Okay. Time for that's Chris Bryant. Time for the rookie watch. I'm going to try to speed through the rest of the show so we can get to some topics, read some more emails, maybe get some team name Tuesday going here. Good rookies

and bad rookies. Here's the good. Nick Senzel. He is four for 17 with three home runs, four walks, five strikeouts in four games. Senzel is bad at second, sixth, fifth, and first in four games. Chris Paddock, unbelievable start yesterday. We talked about him. Pete Alonzo, I got him in the good, but, you know, it is worth noting that he's been struggling a little bit. He leads all first baseman in strikeouts. Pete Alonzo, fantasy points by week. 42 in week one. That was a long week. You know, that was the opening day week. It was like a 10 or 11 day week.

42 fantasy points, 27, 22, 18, and 9. That was last week. Michael Chavis is also one of the good rookies. So, Senzel, Paddock, Alonzo, and Chavis. I've got them in the good rookie category. Who's the best? Who's your favorite of this four? Senzel, Paddock, Alonzo, and Chavis.

Scott? I'm still going to go with Alonzo, who I think is not anybody I'd ever. ever consider sitting, even at a deep position. And, yeah, strikeouts are something I often worry about. I think that's where the ex-Woba stat has helped me most determined how much I should really be concerned about a player's strikeout rate, because that's always been difficult to reconcile with everything else.

And he has overachieved, according to ex-Woba, but the ex-Woba is still really high. So, yeah, I still think Alonzo is great. Okay, what do you think about Senzel? Double dong yesterday. I mean, so far so good. He should have four home runs, frankly. Yeah, right. Because he got robbed one.

Right. So that's, yeah, if I own him, I'd be happy and... Who would you... Who would you rather own? Nick Senzel or Chris Paddock? Or like if you were drafting... Okay, you draft Paddock first if you were redrafting today. Yeah, I mean...

Harder to find what he does. That and it's been four or five games for Senzel. Yeah, four. All right, let's go to Chris for the bad rookies. A couple of nationals. Carter Key Boom, 55% owned, 128 batting average. Two homers, no steals, four walks, 16 strikeouts and 11 games. Key Boom's been bad.

Victor Robles, I mean, in Roto, he's fine. He's the number 16 outfielder. He's stealing bases. He's pretty awesome for Roto. Yeah, eight steals is very good. Six home runs. it's pretty good too. But in points leagues, gosh,

and not just in points leagues, but just five walks of 41 strikeouts. I know that doesn't show up in Roto, but it might be something that tells you he's, it might be a warning side. He's overachieved so far. Yeah. He's overachives and pretty drastically.

He's the number. He's the number. He's the number. Yeah, but that's one that's going to be hard to account for speed. They don't, they don't really account for running speed in that as far as I know. And he's going to have a higher Babbitt than you would expect because of that.

No, I'm not particularly worried about Victor Robus. He's kind of doing pretty close to the best case scenario of what I hoped he would. Maybe I would have hoped the average was a little higher, but he's got some pop, which we had hoped he would. He's stealing bases. He's doing it efficiently. And he's not going to hit at the top of the lineup. So that's going to keep his counting stats low.

But I think he's a must-start guy in Roto, obviously. Even if he ends up hitting 240, I think he's a must-start guy in Roto because he's on a 30-30 pace. The homers are slowed down a little bit, but I still think he can get to 20. And I think he's an easy 30-steel guy. So maybe in head-to-head points, he's a little fringier, but you probably should have known that coming in. and I would hope that he wasn't, you know, being drafted around 100th overall in points like he was in Roto. But I have no real concerns about him. All right. That's Robles.

So then with Key Boom, with Nate Lowe, who's been, not so good, and Cole Tucker, are you wanting to be patient with them? Carter Key Boom, Nate Lowe, Cole Tucker, or are you okay cutting them loose? Well, Tucker, I don't really have much interest in at all, so I find cutting him loose. Key Boom, it's easier to be patient with the low, because it goes back to the first base, has so many interesting options, too many players to go around. Even when he got called up, it was like, okay, I kind of like Nate Low, but where am I going to fit him on my roster? So he needs to show real signs of breaking through, I think, to be anything close to must-own for me. And it's worth pointing out yesterday was his most productive game so far.

But there just hasn't been enough yet. And Kee-boom, the concerning thing is I had hoped there was an opportunity for him to just hit so well. Like Juan Soto last year, when Juan Soto got called up and we were like, well, he's a really good good prospect or Cody Bellinger a couple years ago well really good prospect but we don't know if he's going to play every day we don't know if this is just a two-week thing in the majors and those guys just hit so well that they forced the issue i thought carter kebom had an opportunity to do that so when trey turner came back maybe he just took brian dozier's job but so far he's looked like a guy who has you know limited exposure to the upper minors so you know maybe he's not long for the majors

once Trey Turner's healthy. And what do you think about Vlad right now, guys? Made his second error yesterday. He's got four walks, 10 strikeouts, and nine games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s batting 152. Yeah, I'm just... I would have rather him get off to a great star, but I think he's owed the patience

based on both your investment in him and the caliber of prospect we think he is. By low. Yes. Okay. That's all I have to say about Vladimir Guerrero. Yeah. I didn't say anything before that for a reason.

Give him, give him some time. I mentioned this, we did the Sunday video show, and, you know, I mentioned that Alex Bregman, George Springer, awful starts their career. And they turned it around and they were really good after that. Brandon Loud was, Mike Trout was unplayable at the start of his career. Well, but that was like one season, right? And then. Right, but no, but that's what I'm saying is maybe it just doesn't happen for Vladimir

Guerrero, but you bet on the town. talent. This is one of the best prospect talents we've seen in a long time. Right. All right. So give it some time with Vlad. Don't lose faith. Is there any pitcher that you need to talk about from yesterday? Scherzer, Bauer, Cole, Snell. Ooh, Walker Bueller, big

star for him. DeGrom, they were all in action. That's rotation part one. I think, okay, we're fine with Bauer. Scherzer's got one win, but he has eight walks to 72 strikeouts. Holy cow. Yeah. He's been awesome. I think we expect Garrett Cole's the R.A. to

to normalize. He's giving up more runs than you'd expect, but 15 walks of 74 strikeouts. Amazing. Blake Snell said he made some adjustments. He's back on track. Jacob Graham, two good ones in a row. But Walker Bueller, Scott White, maybe his best start of the year. Does this mean anything new going forward? Yeah, I mean, it means something. Obviously, he had been, he had not, what is it, how many qualities? This was his second quality start of the year. So he had been bringing you down if you've had him in your lineup.

It would be hard to take him out of your lineup, just given your level of investment in him. But I wasn't so concerned that he wouldn't come around. It felt like a situation where he came into the season rusty because the Dodgers were so preoccupied with limiting his innings this spring. He was throwing as hard as usual, though. so you know it it didn't seem like a situation where the stuff was diminished or there was any anything to worry about health-wise so I'm hopeful he's coming around here I think he will too it's just a shame because you know the innings are going to be limited to some extent and he's kind of wasted some at the beginning of the year by not being effective with them

the only thing I will say and this has been I think a recurring issue for him so far he still doesn't seem to have the feel for his secondary pitches. And that's not shocking, given that he barely pitched in spring training. But even last night in a good start against a tough matchup, he only threw 23 pitches that were not fastballs. His fastball was incredible. His four-seamer, he got 10 swinging strikes on 75 pitches and 20 college strikes. But he's not going to be the guy we wanted him to be

until he gets the feel for those secondaries. I think it's coming, but he's got a five-pitch arsenal. So it could take a little while for it to click still. Okay. I'm going through Team Name Tuesday right now. It is bad. I mean, this is... Oh, that means...

That's saying something. That's saying something, man. This is a really bad week. Yeah, look, no more panic at the discos. No more Joe Panic at the Friscoes. No more Chris Paddock at the disco. There's a really good one. What?

Panic at Chant's... Cisco. No more. We've heard it. We've heard all of the panics and all the discos and friscoes. Whoa, Piscotti, fam and lamb. That's pretty good. That's very good.

All right. We finally discovered a good one. That's an extremely good one. Okay, so we also have Reyes and Means, like Jacob Beans, who pitched yesterday, by the way. I don't know what that's supposed to be. Like Ways and Means. Oh, like Way's and Means. in means.

Yeah, political humor. Love a congressional subcommittee reference. Acuna, Akuna Mokka Wonderful Freeze. That's not terrible. Okay. Hater's going to hate.

Hater's going to hate. Sure. Show may Oat Money. Like Otade, show Ote. Oh. That's a Heath team, man. It's ridiculous.

Get out of you. Yeah, no. Shohay Yasmani. Shohay Yasmani is not bad. I'm sorry, Luke Jackson. I am Fran Miel. That's good. The Trevor Ending Story.

We've had that one. This one is tough. Vladimir... Okay, Vlad in quotes, Vladimir Putin, It Over the Fence. Yeah, that's topical. Yeah. Love when we get geopolitical.

Natural-born Kellas. Actually, I forgets that thing. Yeah, that's a good one. And Vlad News Berrios. Or Brios. Yeah. Yeah. Hey, what do you think about John Means, by the way?

Seven innings against the Red Sox? I'm not totally disinterested. He throws a lot of, well, he's done a good job limiting walks, and the change-up seems like it can be a standout pitch for him. It's not like he was missing a lot of bats yesterday, though, and putting together that good start. So I'm not rushing to pick him up, but I'm keeping a close eye on him still.

All right, I'm going to clean out the inbox a little bit here. Just go through what's already come into the show inbox since we started the show. This is from Jake. He needs catcher help. Asturio being out is killing me. I picked up Wellington Castillo. He just gets benched. Should I pick up Josh Fegley? Are there any sleeper catchers that should be on my radar?

There are no sleeper catchers. Get out of here. Feigley, though, is better than Castillo, yes. Okay, what about James McCann or Feigley? I would go McCann, yep. With Vlad Jr. and Eloy Jimenez is underachieving, and Nick Senzel and Pete Alonzo coming in hot, how would you rank the rookies for the rest of the year between Senzel, Vlad, Elo, Alonzo, Robles, and Tatis.

Who are your three favorites? I'll read you the names again. This is an email from Matt. Vlad, Senzel, Eloy, Alonzo Robles Tatis. Vlad Alonzo Tatis. Vlad Alonzo Yeah I guess Tatis over Robles

This is from Anthony I need to drop a starting pitcher Who do I drop Tyler Skaggs John Gray or you Darvish I drop Skags I guess This is

Garvish is I fear that the answer That the question should be Darvish But yeah I'm not going to drop him yet I'll play scared 12 team points league Should I drop Kike Hernandez for Van Meter, Gutierrez, Jake Bowers?

It's fine. Is holding on to the bad pitcher playing scared? Seems like it's playing brave. Well, yeah, no, it's playing scared because you're afraid of getting rid of the bad pitcher who was good two years ago. Yeah, but I mean, he's been good other than a terrible, terrible walk, right? This year, I would argue. I don't think. The results, I mean...

I don't know if that's true. true. I think the more accurate way of saying it is he's been awful except he's still getting strikeouts. Kind of feel that way, but in what ways has he been awful? Basically just allowing runs. Yeah, getting run. Yeah, runs. But it's mostly because of the walks, which are terrible. He's having a 2.2 home runs per nine. Yeah, it's not just the walks. Garvish has been crap. Look, you can drop Kika Hernandez, I think, but not for Van Meeter. He hasn't started a game yet. For Calvin Gutierrez or Jake Bowers, would you do that? Yeah, for

Bauer, sure. He's showing some signs of heating up a little bit. Yeah. Sing mostly single. It's just taking one flyer. Okay. All right, that's it for the show. Thank you, everybody. Thank you for listening. We'll be back on Wednesday with the Worryometer. It's going to be a

Creeth and Adams show. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Baseball today.