Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/08: No-Hitter, "Hey, Real Quick" and the "Cool-O-Meter" (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 8, 2019

What a fun night in baseball! We of course talk about Mike Fiers' no-hitter and actually debate if it was a "great" start or not, seriously. We discuss Justin Turner (5:00), Jose Berrios (6:42), fringy SPs (11:30) like Griffin Canning, Lucas Giolito and Tyler Mahle and much more ... News and notes (19:00) as we update you on the CLE rotation and the LAA bullpen. We're also debuting the Cool-O-Meter (21:20), discussing an intriguing call-up with big power (23:30) and playing "Hey, Real Quick" (25:10) as we debate Nola vs. Berrios, Marquez vs. Ryu, Lester vs. Caleb Smith and Realmuto vs. Sanchez ... Some quick thoughts on a few of the top Fantasy performers that we don't talk enough about (30:50), and then it's on to the bullpen (36:15), Worryometer (39:00) and the Own-O-Meter (42:40). Plus our thoughts on some hitters to consider adding (44:00), Madison Bumgarner (46:30), Chris Paddack (48:00), some strategy and a new advanced stat ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I feel like the no-hitter. Welcome to the show. This is Fantasy Baseball today on Worryometer Wednesday, an oh-no-meter Wednesday, and we'll see if we can throw any more meters at the people. I am Adam Azer with the Krethometer. It is a 10 because Chris and Heath are here. Not my best intro, guys. Save me from the package. I thought it was beautiful. You are doing great, sweetie. Stop, please stop calling me that. The first like seven times it was funny. It's a meme. It's a meme, Adam. It's creepy. Come on. Get on the internet. Maybe you should explain to him what you mean. Watch the Kardashians one time, Adam. Okay, I already have to watch Vanderpump rules. I have no room for the Kardashians. Yeah, hey, Mike fires through a no-hitter. Is that something?

Right? Yeah, it happened for sure. It was, he has two no-hitters now. Two? Yes, he does. Which is really something. Yep. And there were a couple of fantastic defensive plays.

I do think that, like, advanced. Against baseball statistics have ruined no hitters just a little bit for some people. Really? I mean, it's cool. Go on. Yeah. This way with a lot of sports. Some things about sports have become less fun to consume because we better understand them.

And we know that Mike Fires no hitter that he pitched last night was not one of probably the top 50 pitching performances of the season. I mean, he gave a zero hit. How can you see that? But that was... It was largely not of his doing. So? So we... Wait, what?

This is the... All right, so I'm the resident stats guy. And, you know, I'm the, I'm the millennial, the guy that doesn't really appreciate sports. I think everybody's a millennial but me. And anyway, um... Like, it's okay to say, hey, this cool thing happened. And also, like, this was not sustainable. Those two things are perfectly...

They're mutually exclusive. I wasn't saying anything bad about your steps. I was not insulting your stats. I mean, it seemed like an insult. Wait, I need to get a little clarity on something here. Most of it was not his doing. Is that what you said about Mike Fires, no-hitter? Look, he got six of the outs.

What the hell are you talking about? Oh, my God. He has zero babbip. There was regression coming. Oh, okay. He threw a no-hitter. So, yes, he had a zero babbip. Yes, Joe Ivado got robbed him.

Joe Ivano got robbed him a home run. Jurks and Profar also made a diving catch. But give Mike Fires some credit, because most of this was his doing, unless you strike out 27 guys. Oh, he pitched. Yeah, he pitched all nine innings. He pitched great through a no hitter. A lot of pitchers can't throw a hundred and thirty one pitchers. You guys.

I gave him credit for throwing 131 pitches. You better say right now that Mike Fires pitch things. You better say right now that Mike Fires was great last night. If you don't, this show. Mike Fires participated in a no hitter. I hate you. I hate you. Okay.

So I'm assuming nobody is going to pick up Mike Fires, although his next two matchups are Cleveland this weekend and at Detroit next week. Yeah, Cleveland can make anyone look good. You need to do, this is a perfect time. And you haven't done this on the baseball podcast for a while. You do it in the football podcast. This is a perfect time for an Adam Azer Twitter poll with live results updating. Was Mike Fires great last night?

Yes or no? If more than 15 people, It would be better if you did it or if I did it. I don't know. Yeah, you're right. Adam's followers are... Oh, please. Wow.

Wow. Tread lightly, Heath. Was Mike Fires, no hitter, six strikeouts, great last night? How's that? No, was Mike Fires? Did Mike Fires pitch great last night? Did he pitch well?

But do you think people... Superman pitch? Do you everybody knows he threw a no-hitter? Superman pitch is great. Did Mike Fires pitch well last night? Well. I mean, he objectively pitched well. I was just saying he wasn't great.

Okay, did he pitch great? Okay. Seriously, pick him up or leave him on waivers? I think you could stream him against Cleveland. I'm going to leave him on waivers. I mean, he just threw a no-hitter and also has a 5.480. Right, and that's actually he's slightly overperforming. No, he's slightly underperforming his FIP.

It's 497. Can I put his line in the tweet so people don't have to look it up? No. Why? No. You're, this isn't a push poll. No, people need to know what he did. I mean, okay. Look, if they don't know, they don't have to vote.

Justin Turner. Responsibility, not a right. Justin Turner. They're going to vote anyway. Justin Turner hit three home runs. I did the notes, some of them early yesterday afternoon, and he was in the Woriometer section. And now, he is, he's hitting 300 with an 825 OPS this season. I don't know why anybody would have been worried about him.

And he was coming around. He was coming around. His previous nine games, Justin Turner, was batting 361 with a home run, two doubles, three walks, four strikeouts. But up until yesterday, he only had hit one home run all season. And now he has four. 17 walks of 25 strikeouts. Do you have anything to say about Justin Turner?

No, I think early on he might have been striking out a little bit more, but I think he's turned that around. The batted ball data, you know, there are. some signs that it's not quite where you want it to be, but for the most part it is. So, no, I'm not, I'm not particularly concerned. Okay, yeah, big day. He was on my bench yesterday, Justin Turner. You never benched Justin Turner.

I haven't. It's actually one thing I did well. Pretty much benched him for, when it came down to it, for Nick Senzel. So it was just I had good hitters. But I also benched Marco Gonzalez and Madison Bumgarner, and they, Both probably deserve to start. So it was a bit of an unpredictable day yesterday. Any standouts you guys want to hit me with right now,

the top of the show? Jose Berrios continues to pitch weirdly. That is not a judgment statement. It is just a statement of fact about the results and approach that he has had so far this season. He has a 253RA, which is awesome. but he has, I think, his lowest strikeout rate, a lower strikeout rate than last year,

almost no walks, 3.9% walk rate, 33% ground ball rate. That's really weird. Jose, again, it's not good or bad. It's just weird. I don't know if this will keep up. If it does, if he continues to be an extreme fly ball pitcher, I would guess he's probably going to be closer to the mid-to-high-3 ZRA guy we've seen.

But, you know, if he could sustain, the control improvements while getting back to being a 40% ground ball rate, there's a chance that Jose Brrios does have a breakout. It's just what he's done now doesn't lead me to believe that's happening yet. Oh, you're wrong because he's going to probably, at the end of the season, Jose Brrios is probably going to have the easiest schedule faced of all pitchers in baseball. I mean, I can't quantify that, but that is my guess. He will be facing the AL Central minus the twins.

And I think, because I was going to. hey real quick you later, hey real quick, Jose Barrios or Aaron Nola, but I almost feel like we have to aim higher. Like I feel like Jose Burrios is going to be a top five pitcher this year. I don't think he's going to be a top five pitcher. He's at the very top still. I haven't put him into the ace tier. He's still for me at the very top of the probably, possibly maybe aces

right there with Luis Castillo. And his peripherals are not as impressive as its actual production. I don't necessarily think the argument that, or not really argument, But the two different points that you guys laid out on Jose Brrios are mutually exclusive. No, right. He's not necessarily doing anything that would make him an ace. He may face enough bad competition and be good enough to be an ace against that competition. And the thing that I love the most about him is just over and over and over seven innings, eight innings into a game.

Occasionally, I think his worst start this year, do he have one where he went five? I'm not even sure if he has one where he went less than six innings. He's averaging, I think, just under seven innings. per start. That's just a huge boost in a points league. Yeah. So, I mean, I'm pretty, obviously, we're happy with Berrios. But interesting takes there, the schedule is certainly going to hell.

Burrios, by the way, reminds me of Berrios. Berries.com promo code FBT, do it. Mother's Day is just days away. Berries.com, the absolute greatest box of chocolate-covered strawberries you will ever get. They have other stuff on there, too. But I was blown away by it. Also, proflowers.com. and the promo code is FBT for a very nice offer.

You will hear about those sponsors later in either today's show or later in the week. But the promo codes are FBT on berries.com for Sherry's Berries and Proflowers.com FBT. Heatha, standout from you. We've talked about Mike Fires. We've talked about Justin Turner, Jose Burrios. What else you got? Those guys were good. We should probably talk about Colin McHugh.

That was bad. He is now in his last four starts allowed 25 runs. across 18 innings. And like this was against the Royals, who I don't think are a great matchup for starting pitchers. They've been a pretty average offense overall this year. He's just not been good. And they have so many options in the minor leagues,

in their bullpen that they can use if they want to try to get him right in a different role. I don't know how much longer his leash is going to be. Yeah. And remember the weird spring training stuff. And then it didn't look like it didn't matter for the first three starts. Yeah. His velocity is down two miles per hour.

and that's obviously coming out of the bullpen, but I think there was a hope that he could sustain some of the gains that he made when he came out of the bullpen coming back into the rotation. It doesn't look like that's happened, and the most troubling thing might just be that he's already throwing his slider 43% of the time up from 24% last year. Maybe he's just using it too much, but that was his best pitch last year.

I don't know what his what the move he makes back to become like a really above average pitcher because for the most part he'd been like a high three's low force guy before last. He really hadn't had that much success as a starting pitcher.

He did in 2014. He was excellent. 273 ERA. A strikeout per inning, whip barely over one. And other than that, you're right. I mean, it was high threes ERA for the most part as a start.

starter. Last year as a reliever, he was outstanding. I think tonight's start with Brad Peacock is also going to be important because one of those guys could lose a rotation spot. Peacock hasn't been very good either, so we'll see what happens there. I think if we look at some of the fringy starting pitch or some of the guys that are available, I want you to tell me if you drop column McHugh for any of the following guys, and only two of them are owned in a lot of leagues. A lot of these guys are widely available. Griffin Canning and Aaron Sanchez are 66 and 61% own respectively. Griffin Canning and Aaron Sanchez, would you drop

Kyle McHugh for either one? Probably not, but that might be because I like other guys coming up more. Yeah, I think if I look at the Waver Wire and Griffin Canning was, in my opinion, the best pitcher on the waiver wire, I would drop Column McHugh for Griffin Canning. Does it matter

Spark, you know, RP versus SP? Because McHugh is RPA. I don't think. There's so many, like, there's like a dozen Sparp's now. Okay. So, and probably half of my like more than Call on McHugh now. Yeah, but they're all owned. It's not like you can just drop McHugh and pick up a different one.

That's true, but what that means if they're all owned is that like there's multiple top 20 relievers that are not owned. Okay, so Griffin Canning Aaron Sanchez, and then let's see who Chris likes. Tyler Malley, doing some nice things. I like Tyler Malley. Curveball. More than the first two guys. He's using his curveball now, and he's got 41 strikeouts to eight walks in 39 innings, but only two quality starts this year. Danny Duffy only struck out one in his first start since then.

He's been a lot better. He's got two starts next week, Danny Duffy. Jeffrey Rodriguez for the Indians pitched well. And Lucas Gialito, I picked up yesterday. I dropped C.C. Sabathia for Lucas Gialito. He's 31-0. And he's got 38 strikeouts and 31 innings. I'm certainly not starting him.

You know, I want to see some more consistency, but I think there's reason to at least stash Gialito. So who are your favorite? it's on that list. Canning, Sanchez, Malley, Duffy, Jeffrey Rodriguez, Gialito. For me, it's Gialito and Malley. I'd go Canning and Malley. And Duffy. Okay. All right. So this should be a good conversation here. Well, Chris, let me just say, I am surprised that you did not also say Canning, number one. He is the most owned in this

group. Heath has him number one in this group. He has a 21% swinging strike rate. in two starts, but he certainly does have trouble third time through the order. Okay, so why Gialito and Mally over Griffin Canning? So I definitely like Canning from what we've seen so far, but it seems like he relies a lot on deception. His stuff actually seems like it should be pretty good, and he's getting a lot of swing strikes, but it seems from watching him, like a lot of it is because he's really hard to pick up

and he's got a funky delivery. and that's the kind of thing that can get picked up as badders start to see him a little more. We don't actually know if he's guaranteed a rotation spot. You know, once the Angels, if the Angels rotation ever gets healthy, which it hasn't been in five years, but still. So I, and I just really like what we're seeing out of Tyler Malley and Lucas Gialito. Gialito, the curveball has looked really good so far this season. He actually didn't throw it last.

night, which is interesting. I don't know if that's, uh, I'm not sure what to make of that because he's, he is coming back from the hamstring injury. Maybe he's just not feeling it right, but he also just was really good without it, you know, mostly fastball change up yesterday. And he still has the curve ball in his back pocket. And the strikeout rate is just, it's hard to ignore. He was looking, that start before the hamstring injury, he looked like the guy he was supposed to look like when he was a prospect. And Tyler Malley, great control. He seems to have a much better secondary swing and miss pitch with this curveball. It makes me, I don't know, Adam, were you a real big fish fan growing up?

It seemed like you might have been. Really just sell out, which is perhaps the best ska song of the sky. It's a great song. But I was thinking of, he has a curveball now. You know that one? He has a girlfriend now. He has a Jordan Skah in the mid-90s? He has a...

Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. What? Just a little bit, but really more of a Mighty Mighty Bostones guy. I don't think that's ska. I think it's more like swing. Okay. Oh, no. Bostones were ska.

The Bostones and Real Big Fish are fighting for the best ska song of the era. It's either... No, no, sorry. Sellout or... Superman by Goldfinger. What the hell is the Mighty Bostone song called? Oh, the impression that I get. The impression that I get.

Nothing bad's ever happened to me. sure hope nothing bad happens to me moving forward. That is literally what that song is about. No, it is absolutely not what it's about. You don't even know that, no, I know what it's about. Listen to, okay, I don't know what the genesis of it, but listen to the lyrics. In the chorus, he says, I've never had to knock on wood,

but I knew someone who had, and it makes me wonder if I could. Chris, do you have, Chris, Chris, do you have Spotify? Yeah. They have something called lyric genius. Yeah, I don't need to learn. I'm a lyric genius. Certain songs, they tell you what it means,

what the origin are. They quote the artist. I'm taking it at face value, Adam. Go read what that song is about. Okay. Look, there's no, there's, look, you can't put subtext in a song, all text. Okay. All right. I think we're done with this debate here. Let's Heath, do you want to weigh in? How own should Tyler Malley be? Let's put him on the Ono meter. I think it should be right around 60%, right? Where Sanchez and Canning is. Sixty nine percent. There you go. Okay. Great, wonderful. I would take a quick break here on Finns. Tennessee baseball today. When we come back, we got news and notes. Carter Keyboom, wasted a lot of breath on him yesterday because he got sent to AAA. We have updates on the Indians rotation. We have some cool stats for you. There's a team that almost hit its first triple last night, but it was taken away by the official score. And then we've got the Wariometer, the Onometer. So hey, real quick, we're going to appreciate some greatness. We're going to get to the bullpen. Interesting stuff, Ryan Brazier, Anthony Swarzak, they're struggling. Hansel Robles got a save, even though Cody Allen was activated. We'll talk about it

all right after this on fantasy baseball today. So here are your news and notes. Carter Keyboom to AAA with Rendon off the DL I.O. Corey Klobber is, okay, he broke his arm, so I was a little surprised to hear that he's hopeful to pitch again this season. Like, really should an arm injury be five months, but okay. Mike Clevenger is making good progress. He could throw a bullpen session very soon.

Cody Allen is back, guys, but Hansel Robles got the save. What did you make of that? usually I mean he's been he was struggling before the injury usually managers don't want to put guys back in the closer role in their first appearance

even when they were doing well so that's not terribly surprising I think he has a chance to earn the job back if he pitches well okay so you think both Alan and Robles are worth owning at this point to see what happens I don't know if Alan is worth owning in

anything like 12 teams are shallower, just because I'm not sure speculating on saves with a mediocre team and a mediocre pitcher makes a ton of sense. Oh, okay. Okay, so it depends on league depth. Makes sense. Meanwhile, speaking of closers,

Chris Woodward, the Texas manager, said that on Jose LeCloric, who's now 64% owned, quote, I feel pretty confident that not too long from now he's going to be back in his role that he had. That's what Woodward said about. I feel less confident. He's been good,

his two appearances in middle relief. Also, Texas manager Chris Woodward said he wants to give Hunter Pence more playing time. Max Freed is day-to-day with a bruised hand. He had an abbreviated start. He got hit by a comebacker, came out of the game, and it wasn't a good start. He gave him three runs in the first inning. Two of them scored on basically an infield single that could have been scored an error. So bad luck with the scoring decision there for Freed.

Jonathan Loisica is going to make just a spot start today for the Yankees against Seattle, and I think I'm going to go to the game. That's great. David Robertson could start throwing this weekend, very interested to see what happens in that Philly's bullpen. Juan Soto expected back on Saturday. Chris Davis with a K sat with a hip contusion. Freddie Peralta was used after an opener, and he was great. So they just tried to mix it up with Peralta. They used an opener. They brought him in. He pitched five scoreless inings with five strikeouts. And Fernando Tatee is making progress. He feels good. He took batting practice. Guys, I'm going to give you some cool stats. Let's get the cool Omey.

her out. I'll give you a stat. You tell me zero to ten. How cool is this stat? The Yankees, they won yesterday, a walk-off hit. Zero. They had lost their previous 51 games when trailing after eight innings. That was the longest active streak in baseball. Well, yeah, I mean, a stat is only cool if it's surprising. And in this one, the terribly unclutch Yankees, not, that's not surprising at all. I actually was very surprised. that about this. I'm going to give that an 8 on the cool little meter. JD Martinez hit his 200th career home run. Yeah, it took him about half as many plate appearances to get from 101 to 200 as it did to get to 1 to 100.

So that's a 3. I'm going to put it at a 1. There are like 700 baseball players that have hit 200 home runs. Jurexon Profar hit his first home run away from Camden Yards this year. He has three this year. He hit his first at home. One? It's nice for Jerkson. It's nice for Jerkson Prophar. He's, he's, been bad there's something going on with him because he also just can't throw the baseball right now it's been really weird to watch he seems to have the yips out in second base okay uh the raise maybe the best team in baseball they drew 8,059 fans last night it's a good night for the marlins

i i'm gonna go on this rant i got really blasted by at least one raise fan last year um they are like i said maybe the best team in baseball team in baseballs i'm baseball, and you can't show up ever. Building a new stadium will not help. It will be a waste of money. It will be just like what happened to the Marlins. The race should be in another state, just like the Marlins. Those teams, those cities do not deserve baseball franchises.

I am sorry, but that is the truth. Chris Towers got very mad at me a couple of years ago for making this argument about the Marlins. They don't deserve it. Well, no, because you were like, you were making like casting a moral judgment on the city of Miami. Adams casting a moral judgment on the city of Miami. You had only been here for like six. six months. You don't get to... Adam's... Look, Miami, this is... Like, Dwayne Wade, this is my town. This is my city.

All right. And so... And baseball fans. I can say that. You haven't earned the right, all right? You haven't been down to Cayaocho even once. So you don't get to... I might have... I don't know where... Call me when you've been to E. Coyocho. It's 8th Street. Okay, it's 8th Street. I've been to Ebor. I've been to Ebor. I've been to Ebor. Chris Bryant has five home runs in his last 10 games. Eight. That's a very cool stat, Adam.

It's the first one you've had on the show. Nine. Miami has not hit a triple this year. They haven't hit much else. They had a triple. That's actually not that surprised. Granderson tripled yesterday and then it was ruled a double with an error. It should have been a triple.

They have not tripled this year. There might be other teams that haven't tripled this year. I don't know. I think the Royals have like 42 triples. Probably. All they hit. Okay. We got Hey Real Quick.

I wanted to talk about a guy who's back. but I don't have the thing queued up. Wait, now I have it queued up. So let's talk. Welcome back. Mac Williamson's back, and he homered, and he's like 5% owned. Does anyone care about Mac Williamson?

Scott does. And I wrote about him in WaverWire today. I think everyone that plays in a five outfielder categories league should care about Mac Williamson. He's going to strike out too much to be good in points leagues most likely. I will just say I think he has enough power. We talk a lot about. San Francisco and how that part kind of

destroys power hitters has probably destroyed Brandon Belt's chance of hitting 400 home runs in his career but I think he's going to hit 200 everybody hits 200 home runs Chris I don't think you realize I don't know if like 700 people have hit 200 home runs

and Belt will I'm not sure if Belt has yet Mac Williamson will as well okay and we got to hear return to the Mac hey real quick Aaron Nola or Jose Barrios Aaron Nola pretty easily Not easy at all. Very, very close. I might take burritos, but it's a coin flip.

Hey, real quick, Armand Marquez or Shunjin Ryu? Ryu when Marquez is at Coors. And Marquez, when he's on the road. I think you probably have to take Marquez rest of season just because Ryu never pitches a full season. But I think on a perning basis, at least when it comes to run prevention and whip, I think he's going to be better. Where are we ranking

Junjun Riu? Okay, complete game shutout. Only six strikeouts. So that means he definitely did not pitch well, just like Mike Fires. Update on the Twitter poll, by the way. No one said he didn't pitch well. Pitch great.

Pitch great. So was Junjind Riu great last night? Oh, yeah. He was phenomenal. Really, really, really good. He had a worst line that Mike fires. That is such a stupid thing. This is the dumbest thing.

I cannot, I cannot credit. Why are you indulging it? Publish this episode with this... And 39% of my idiot followers said that Mike Fires did not pitch great. This is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Adam, if you blocked more people,

the results might be skewed more in your favor. Answer your question. I currently have Hermann Marquez 22nd and Yunjin Ryu 29. Okay. Hey, real quick, John Lester or Caleb Smith? They went head to head yesterday. Caleb Smith struck out 11.

Lester's got a 141 ERA, Smith to 11. Hey, real quick, Lester or Smith? I don't quite know what to make of John Lester so far this season. I mean, he's striking people out. Hey, real quick, Chris. Lester or Smith? And so I'm going to deliberate on this a little more. Caleb Smith.

It's Caleb Smith by a considerable margin. I don't buy John Lester. I have moved him up a lot from where I had him earlier in the year, but he's still not a top 30 starter for me. Hmm. Okay, he's a tough one. He's a tough one. But, yeah, you've got him 57th, John Lester.

No, I've got him 39th. Okay. You just move him up? Just seconds ago. The API hasn't run yet. Who's the top starting pitcher on the Cubs for fantasy purposes? I think Kintana? I have Kantana, I believe, like 36, 35.

I think I have you Darvish right behind Lester because I still think he's going to be good and Kyle Hendricks is right there with them. They're all... Wait, you forgot the one who's one spot ahead of Jose Katana. Cole Habels. Oh, God. I knew there was someone we were forgetting.

You have like... They started running through them. So all of the Cubs pitchers are ranked within like 10. spots for me now. Where do you have Hendricks? Yeah, yeah, yeah. From 35 to 45, you have 11 spots. You have all of them. That seems fair. That's really

funny. That's really funny. All right, finally. Hey, real quick. Gary Sanchez or J.T. Ray Almuto? Scary Gary. I can't think of anything. It rhymes with JT. So JT.Ralmito. Why? Skatee JT.

We're talking about the 90s. I think we all liked Real Muto more than Sanchez before the season, and nothing has happened in a month of baseball to change my opinion on that. I mean, Sanchez has fixed whatever it was that was wrong with him, and I don't think we thought Sanchez had less upside. Or Sanchez has had a good month. Well, we've seen that before from him. It's not like this is out of nowhere.

Like last year looks like the outlier. Right. One thing to note, Rayamuto last year lowered his ground ball rate to 39.8%. It's back up to 46.8%. That's basically right in line with Rayamuto's career ground ball rate. So, you know, my fear with Rayamuto is that we were basing our love for him on, obviously, the move from ballpark to ballpark made sense. But also, like, where we were taking 2018 Rayamuto and putting him with the Phillies.

What if he performed more like 2017, Reaamuto? You know, so I don't know what kind of hitter he is, because 2017 Reaumuto, even with the Phillies, probably wouldn't be as good as Gary Sanchez. 2018, Rayamato would have been. 2018, Gary Sanchez was much better than J.T. Realmuto. Well, not 2018. 18 Sanchez or 2017.

Yeah, in 2016, Gary Sanchez was like best catcher ever. So, okay. Sanchez. And they're both top five. so far this year, but Realoos score more points, right? Yeah, Sanchez is on the IEL. 11 more games.

Yeah, yes. Okay. Probably continue to be the case. Yeah, he could Sanchez could go back on the IL. I mean, he's got issues and boy, he can't catch. Okay, let's appreciate greatness.

Let's talk about some guys. I couldn't really fit in the show, but I just felt like they deserve some love, some talk. Reese Hoskins is the number two first baseman in fantasy behind Cody Bellinger. He has a 425 on base percentage. Reese Hoskins has hit 11 home runs and he's batting 302, which is very high for him.

Whitmeryfield is a top two second baseman, first in points, second in Roto. Whitmeryfield is on pace for 27 homers, 36 doubles, and 27 triples. And he's just on fire. And George Springer, he is running a little bit. He has four steals and five attempts. That's, you know, if he gives you 15 to 20, that's going to be really nice from Springer. But he's having a great year and he's the number three outfielder in fantasy. Hoskins, top two first baseman, Merrifield, top two second baseman, Springer, top three outfielder.

I just wanted to throw a little bit of love their way, and you guys can talk about that. The one thing I'm unsure about with Hoskins is where he would rank if his babup was somewhere closer to normal for him, because in 2017 it was 241 over a small sample size. 2018, it was 272. This year it's 365.

He's hitting 302, which is way out of character, with a strikeout rate that's higher than it's ever been. He's very, very good. I don't think we should have, like, with Bellinger, we're having the discussion. Should we move him ahead of Freeman and Goldschmidt? Should he be the number one first baseman? I'm not ready to put Hoskins in that class yet. No, no. I think he's probably, I'm not sure he's a 240 hitter because he ran really low Babibs his first two seasons.

and BABBB just takes a really long time before we know the difference between noise and skill. And so he might be a 300 Babbat guy. Yeah, if I had to put a number on it, I'd probably set the overrunner at 255 for the rest of the year. Yeah, I was thinking 260. But I think he's a legitimate power threat. In that lineup, he's going to drive in a ton of runs.

So, you know, I do think he's probably, you know, maybe not a top five first baseman, but not far off. I've got him very close to fifth. Yeah, he's right in that range. Yeah, you have him fifth, at least in points leagues. In between Anthony Rizzo and Matt Carpenter, and I think a good comp is Joey Gallo.

Who would you rather have? You've got him ahead of Gallo. Would you stick with that in Hoskins over Gallo? I would. Yeah. Are you buying this start from George Springer? I mean, it does feel a little bit too good to be true. He's on pace for 49 homers.

That'll slow down. But he's obviously been great. And we've seen him be great before, not for a full season necessarily, but before an injury. I cited this stat before and I'll cite it again. But you guys could talk about George Springer. What do you think about him? I think it's mostly for real.

I don't think he's going to hit 50 homers, but I'd pencil him in for 30 plus. Yeah, if you were going to guess, like if there's one thing that stands out as unsustainable in his profile, it's the 30% home run to fly ball ratio so far this year. And he might hit the ball hard enough for it to be 20%. For his career, it's 20%. But if you took away a third of his home run so far,

wouldn't be quite as impressed. Yeah, and that would put him right on pace for about 35 or 35 homers. And I think that's a good place to place expectations. Well, if George Springer hits 35 home runs, he's going to probably be a top five outfielder or very close to it because he's going to get so many played appearances and score a lot of runs. And the best stretch of his career was 99 games in 2017. His first 99 games before a quad injury sent him to the DL, now the IL.

he had a 973 OPS. It looked like George Springer finally, like, truly broke out into a star. Bated 3-10 with 27 homers, only four steals. But a 973 OPS in 99 games. Then he missed more than two weeks with a quad injury. Came back and was terrible for 47 games. He had a 717 OPS. And then in the postseason, he was great,

and he homered five times in the World Series. But last year was so bad for him. I think if you have Springer, like, there was a guy that was, he was like floating around in his own tier. I felt like on draft day, like a round five, like an early round five pick, and it has certainly paid off. You did a great job if you drafted George Springer. A lot more to come.

After this quick break on fantasy baseball today, we'll talk about bullpen developments, Wuriometer, and a great round of emails today. One of the best rounds of emails we've ever had. Can we apply a fantasy football strategy to fantasy baseball? It's coming up next on fantasy baseball today. In the bullpen, fellas, do we have any changes forthcoming with Ryan Brazier struggling again, with Anthony Swarzak being terrible lately, with Taylor Rogers getting a save.

I cannot imagine the Mariners give Anthony Swarzak their next sale opportunity, and I don't know that I would give him another one until he had like three good outings. We were talking about it before the show. He's six straight outings now. He's allowed to run. He gave up three in those most recent one.

And so that's the one I would be most concerned about. Brazier's a little bit concerning, especially since Barnes has just been so good I think he's a 16.9K per 9 right now with a 1.880RA. So I think the Brazier Barnes thing could get a little bit messier. The Angels is going to be messy in the future. It's probably messy right now. But the only one that I really think is going to change is I wouldn't expect a save from Swarzak anytime soon.

Well, Brazier pitched the 8th yesterday. Now, he came in to face the top of the order, and then Barnes came in and got his third save. He pitched one out in the 8th to relieve a struggling Brazier. and Barnes is 53% owned, so, you know, I'm not saying he's must own, but you could think about picking him up. And what was really concerning about Barnes, he always walks so many guys. He's got four walks to 27 strikeouts in 14 and a third. He's just, he's having his best season. Jalen Beeks had another good outing.

He's only the number 67 pitcher in Roto leagues, but a 248 ERA, 10 walks to 29 strikeouts and 29 innings, and a 117 whip. Beaks is this kind of, you know, pitch three to four innings at a time sort of guy who can get just some good ratios and maybe. I think he'd gone six his previous two outings, right? At least one of them, yes. Yeah, I think he's probably the best example of a pitcher who needs an opener because I don't think he can, I definitely don't think he could face the top of an order three times and have success consistently. but the fact that he doesn't have to, I think he can manage okay in this role.

It's just, it's not a high upside role. I think we got a new tweet of the day. Oh, boy. Okay. What is it? I just happened to see this on Twitter, and I enjoy it. So Brian Phillips sent to Adam and I, 20 team head-to-head categories league. Injuries sent me to the waiver wire for Robbie Grossman yesterday.

There was no one else. Who did I drop? Stinking Mike fires. I hate him. At least Grossman got me a steal. That's great. You made the right call. And how about this tweet?

There's so much negativity in this world, and now we're discussing if a no-hitter was good enough. That's a shame. I'm going to retweet. That's what I was just saying. That's what started this entire discussion. Yeah, blame grief. And then you made the argument that it wasn't great.

Yes. Okay. Let's go to the Worryometer. It's Worryometer Wednesday. Zero to 10. How worried are you about Ronald Acuna? First 16 games, 1173 OPS, and one walk to one strike at 13-13. Last 19 games, 566 OPS with a 340 Babbup. Five walks, 21 strikeouts. How worried are you, zero to 10 on Ronald O'Cunia?

I'm a seven on him returning top six value, like he was getting drafted in a lot of league. but on him being a very good fantasy player, I'm a one. Yeah, it's almost exactly how I feel. I mean, listen, we're chopping up a month of a season into splits now. If you look at his career, he's played 146 games. He's hit 32 home runs, stolen 16 bases, scored 98 runs, and hit 290. He's awesome. Okay.

Worryometer on Jose Ramirez, his last 321 played appearances, that's 73 games going back to last year. Jose Ramirez is batting 181, 299 on base, 293 slugging. Jose Ramirez Wariometer. Well, see, it was easier with Akuna because you could break it up into

if you drafted him here, you can be worried everyone drafted Jose Ramirez in the first four picks. 10 for him being who we thought he... Not happening. The nice thing, I guess, so far is at least he's stolen nine bases. Like, he's on a ridiculous stolen base pace,

so that's at least helped you out in the categories league. I'm a I'm not concerned that Jose Ramirez is going to be someone that is just bad all year but I'm an 8

on him being a disappointment for fantasy owner yeah okay Michael Conforto ice cold down to 254 with six home runs 26 walks

that's pretty damn good 34 strikeouts and 36 games Michael Conforto I gotta check something here okay no not a ton of Not much chilly effect so far. Hitting the ball in the air more, pulling the ball a little more.

Gilles Davis, uh-huh. He's been so streaking his career that we don't really know who Michael Conforto is, so I guess a five. Three. Yeah, I love the walks, man. Okay, so not super worried about Conforto. Noah Cindergarde. Noah Cindergarde, you know, I thought, I bought the excuse because he threw

a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts against the Reds last time out and he just said like the warmer weather helped. So I bought that. But yesterday I can't imagine it was too cold in San Diego and he got kind of rocked. So zero to 10 on Cinderguard. He's been really unlucky.

He's got all his peripherals are way, way better than his 5-1-4 ERA. But his peripherals aren't also as good as we were hoping that he was going to be this year. So I would put him at like a three or a just that I'm afraid he's going to be a top 25 starting pitcher instead of an ace? Yeah, I would have gone with a zero after his 10 strikeout game, so I'm going to stick with a zero.

I think Noah Cindergarde is going to be absolutely fine. Boy, I really hope it wasn't. End of thought. I really hope it wasn't cold. I know. Very much like an example. I wanted to end it dramatically. People wanting more.

You always want to go out on top. Can we do this, the Ono Meter pretty quickly here, so we can read some emails. and do more from yesterday. Onometer. All right, so here's how the Onometer works. Zero to 10, zero is they shouldn't be owned. 10, they should be on that 100% of leagues.

5, 50% of leagues. 7, 70% of leagues, et cetera. That's a Heath Cummings creation. Very good calibration. Dan Vogelbach, in his last 14 games, he has a 175 batting average, but eight walks to nine strikeouts, so that is nice.

Ono meter on Vogelbach. Six. That's exactly what I was going to say. I'm glad I said it first, so it sounds like I was the original one. Yeah. I mean, I reacted pretty quick. End of thought. He does often sit against lefties, Dan Vogelbach.

And that's the thing. I think he can, I think he's a good hitter, but he's not a great hitter for fantasy, and he sits against lefties. Gregory Polanco, zero to ten. Ten? Yeah. He homered last night. Nine. He did Homer last night, yes.

Okay. Own Gregory Polanco. Rugnett Odor. Two. Three, yeah. Yeah, three. Okay, he's 62% owned. Time for an awesome round of emails.

This one comes from Kevin in Miami. Let me just peek ahead and make sure I'm not missing anything super important from yesterday's show or from yesterday's games. Mitch Garver, 53% own. Needs to be more owned. Yeah. Mitch Morland. Oh, man.

Boy, did I miss like a great segment. Like, ain't that a... No, I can't say it. About Mitch Garver and Mitch Morland. I said it without saying it. Mitch Morland, 38% owed. He has 10 home runs. And a 215 batting average.

What do you think about Morland? Three. Yeah, he made the All-Star game last year. So, three. You might make the All-Star gaming this year. Might. Probably hitting 215, though. What do you think about these guys in Deep League?

White Sox outfielder Charlie Tilson, Diamondback starting pitcher Taylor Clark, who replaced Zach Godley, and Yankees' third baseman Giovanni Urchella. I... So I got in the offseason at one point, I got Giovanni Urchella and Yandi Diaz confused as, like, Indians' infielders

who were toiling in the high minors. And when some team acquired Giovanni Arcella, I tweeted, oh, hey, I kind of believe in him still. and I totally meant Yandi Diaz, so I deleted it. I wish I had left it up. Yeah. Even though it wasn't supposed to be about him, it would have made me look really smart.

No, I don't really believe in this. This is the whole segment? The podcast? Anything, really. I'm a nihilist. What about Tilson and Taylor Clark? I don't know enough about them to have an opinion at this point. I don't think Tilson is good.

Yeah, we've seen enough of him, I think, to say that he's probably, Probably not worth mine. I will throw in that... You know what? Okay, we're going to talk about the... We're going to do the emails. We're going to finish with the emails. We'll spend like 10 minutes on at least.

But Steven Strasbourg was having a great start yesterday. The final line does not do it justice. He was scoreless through six innings. The Brewers were raving about his stuff. And then he got knocked around a little bit. Lorenzo Cain hit a basis clearing double, I think. But four runs in six and two, there's. But 11 strikeouts.

Velocity is creeping back up. I don't know if we're going to see it. Get back to like 95. but velocity better for Strasbourg. And then Madison Bumgarner, I really think we should talk about him because I feel like if he were anybody else, eight walks to 51 strikeouts and 49 and two-thirds,

a 115 whip, a 352 fip, and a 399 ERA, 11.5% swinging strike rate, which is really good for Bumgarner. I know, I feel like we went into the season not believing in him, but this guy's peripherals are better than his numbers, and he did pretty well at Corsfield yesterday. So should we be believing more in Madison

bubble order. Maybe we're being a little unfair. Like, before the season, we did say he needed to change something. He couldn't just keep being a sub 8K per 9 guy. He's at 9.2 and he's cut his walk rate. Like the fly ball rate's up a little bit, but playing half your games in Oracle Park, I guess, can make that work. So yeah, he's pitched better. I don't think he's a must-start guy because I still don't quite trust that he is all the way improved from where he was the last couple of seasons, but he's been better than I thought he would be for sure. He has an ERA, a FIP, a Sierra, an X FIP all between 3.50 and 4. I would expect he's going to be a pitcher that lives between 3.50 and 4 for the rest of the

season. That's not, like, I wouldn't have told you to start him last night, and I think that was the correct move. I don't believe he's a must start pitcher, but he's going to have a lot of good starts as well, and he should eat some innings. Yeah, and if he's striking out a batter per inning and with a 370 ERA, then would you rank

Bumgarner ahead of those Cubs pitchers who are all between, what, 35 and 45 in your ranking? He is certainly in that group. Okay, okay. I think he is John List. All right, let's do some emails then, and this one is from Kevin and Miami. You talk

quite a bit about Chris Paddock yesterday, but I need more Chris Paddock. I'm convinced he's soon going to be the next Clayton Kershaw, the first pitcher off the draft board year after year. Tell me why I'm wrong. I'm not sure you are. I won't be next year.

Chances are you are, but because only one person in all of baseball is going to be that guy. So if you say anybody's going to be that guy, you're probably wrong. Yeah, yeah. But no, I mean, actually, this is, he made the comp. Kevin that I made, I think yesterday when I came into the office talking about him. He says Chris Paddock is Jose Fernandez. That was the vibe I got watching him during, was it Sunday's start, whenever it was.

No, it was Monday. That was the vibe that I got watching Chris Paddock in that start, how fiery he was on the mound, how good this stuff is. It reminded me of Jose Fernandez. I'm not sure he's quite that good, but Jose Fernandez was another guy who didn't have huge minor league track record, but everything he did was dominant. And Paddock certainly seems to have that kind of stuff. Who is the young... Who is the number one pitcher in a dynasty league?

All the high-end pitchers are kind of old. Like snow. Yeah, it's probably Blake Snow. Okay. Is Paddock top... No question about it. Is Paddock top ten? Or is it too soon?

Okay. Next email. Next email is from Robert in Galvin. Robert Galvin from Fullerton, California. I was thinking about two positions. Catcher and relief pitcher and how they seem to be very different so far this year. Different as in they really stink.

A possible solution seemed to come up with... A possible solution seemed to come up and it borrows a strategy from our fantasy football brethren. Handcuffing. I know you guys get asked every year if it makes sense to handcuff catchers, and I believe every year you say no. However, with catcher being so bad, does that change

your thinking? For example, if you roster Castro and Garver and change them out accordingly, this would obviously be a daily lineup league, you'd have the number one catcher in fantasy. Additionally, do you think this method could work for relief pitchers? Rather than guess who is getting the save, roster both relievers from the same team

and basically cover your bases, pun intended. I think it could work for relief pitcher, but you wouldn't have drafted Jason Castro and Mitch Garver before the season. There was a Twins catcher being drafted in a lot of leagues, but it wasn't either of those guys. And I just, I don't think there are enough teams with two good enough catchers that it's worth using a roster spot on that, especially who has roster spots to spare right now? I don't in any of my leagues, really.

Yeah, yeah, I'd give this one an A for the effort of the idea. but I don't think in practice unless you're in a daily lineups league where you have several bench spots. Like it would have worked last year with Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki or whoever. But who would you have targeted before the season? Well, but let me just say this. I don't know that you have to target them before the season. You could easily pick up Mitch Garver and Jason Castro. If Garver's own, you can't, but if he's not owner if you had him, it's very easy to roster both catchers.

Yeah, but Mitch Garver's had a good month. Yeah, that's the thing. It seems like every year there might be one team that has two catchers that are doing pretty well at the same time. That's not really something to bake a strategy out of. But I do wonder if it's – since catchers do sit, obviously more than any other position, do you use a roster spot on that backup catcher and just have a team catcher for 162 games? I don't think so. But if you had enough roster spots, I guess you could toy with it.

As far as relievers go, that's really not a bad idea. as long as they're two good relievers. There's no problem rostering both Brazier and Barnes because we expect both of them to be good and you'll get the saves. Yeah, I think the better football strategy to borrow for catcher,

and it's a baseball strategy too, but we'll keep with the theme, is streaming catchers. You know, if you don't get one of the guys that, you know, the J.T. Romuto, Gary Sanchez, Wilson Contreras, those kind of guys,

you could just play the hot hand. It's going to be hard. you're probably going to miss quite a bit. Right, yeah, I'm not so sure I'm into that. It's catcher. Well, but I guess the point is everyone's going to get bad production from their catcher outside of three spots. And so at least here you have a chance to catch lightning in a bottle. You know, maybe you grabbed Mitch Garver after a couple of good games and you can ride him for a few weeks.

All right. Innovative strategy. Nobody's ever thought about it before. Brandon Lau regression. That is the subject line of this. email from John. Your pod turned me on to Brandon Lowe and he's been a great pickup, but I'm worried about his batting average. Should I try to trade Brandon Lowe now while his value is sky high? Thanks. Love the show. More Fantasy Jeopardy. I think he's certainly a bit of a sell high candidate. Yeah.

Just because of how much he's striking out. And the fact that he did strike out 26% of the time last year. So it's not totally out of character. Yeah, I wouldn't mind if I, I wouldn't mind if I I could get something good for him. Question about Lau to me is like what batting average do we expect from him? Because he's hitting 3-8-11 and that's too high. But is he a 250 guy? Is he a 280 guy? You look at last year, you look at the minor leagues.

I don't know if it was all of last year, but it was last year after that horrific start. He's actually been a better batting average guy than I would have thought. And if he's a 280 batting average guy, then I don't know that I want to be selling high on Brandon Lau. What do you expect? I think 240 to 250 based on what he's shown right now So far in the majors I think makes sense Okay Kyle in Grand Rapids

Dear Mattingly Bell Conceco and McGuire Oh is that from RBI baseball he's saying American League Sluggers He says RBI American League Sluggers Sure I have no idea Okay I absolutely cringe every time I hear Adam say

RBI yes No, you guys are wrong. This has been a pet peeve of mine for years. When have you ever said that a player had four runs, batted ins in a game? I wouldn't say that, but I would say RBI's because RBI is singular. RBI is. No, it is. Yes, it is. Runs batted in.

It doesn't matter what it stands for. It doesn't matter what it stands for. It's singular. RBI. Technically, this might be one place where Adam has some legal standing. The AP style book does. say it's okay to pluralize RBI's.

The AP Stylebook also says, also used to say, don't use Oxford commas and type out percent instead of use the percent symbol. So they are clearly not infallible, and in this case, they are obviously one.

Can I ask you a question? If a guy... If a guy had one RBI, drove in one run, what would you say? You would say... He had an RBI. Adam. RBI is singular.

He had two RBIs. If you had one moose, how many moose would you have? You'd have one moose. If you had eight, how many would you have? You would have eight mees. All right, next up. Well played. Jake in Chicago wants to know what he should do with Craig Kimball.

Just you're pockametted. Yep. Sorry. He'll sign shortly after the June, I believe it's second draft, maybe sixth. Because baseball teams are less concerned about winning, then. Can we get a Twitter poll update? Oh, yeah, yeah. Last I was like 60-40.

It was trending in the wrong direction for us. Not quite enough. 60-40, 457% of the votes in. 60% yes, 40% stupid. The best part is, because I was actually going to, going through the replies to this tweet, and people are mad at Adam for asking the question because they assume he thinks Mike Fires did not pitch great last night. It's outstanding.

Oh, gosh. Damn it. You're right. I am getting ripped for this. I love you, bro. But damn, you just love being controversial, don't you? You can deaf be cloudish, huh? I have the quote treat this tweet to this one.

The ultimate Azer take. Yes. Okay, so this is from Caleb and Raleigh. Dear Gus, Sean, Lassie, and Henry, I thought I was the only person who watched the show Syke. Dogs? No, it's the show Syke. Been seeing a new stat floating around on Twitter,

CSW, called strikes plus whiffs divided by total pitches. Would love your opinion on this stat. Called strikes plus hits divided by total pitches? Yeah, I've seen it a lot. I've seen it mentioned a lot this year. And so I looked into it over the weekend. I talked to the guy who came up with it, Alex Fast, and there's value in it.

He did some comparisons to year over year compared to strikeout rate. There is a pretty high correlation both year over year and with called plus swing strikes to strike out rate, ERA, Sierra. So there does definitely seem to be something there. And what I like is, you know, swinging strike rate on its own doesn't carry a ton of predictive value outside of strikeout rate. Like if you know strikeout rate, that tends to be more predictive than swinging strike rate, at least outside of the margins. And called strike rate just hasn't, from what I've seen, carried a ton of predictive value in and of itself. It doesn't seem to be super sustainable.

There's a lot outside of the pitchers control. but when you combine them, there does seem to be a fair amount of predictive value. So, yeah, I think it has worth for sure. CSW. And last email is from Casey, do you think Shohei Otani is must-owned? Not in a weekly points league.

He's going to play every day, though. What? He's going to play every day, so they say. I don't think he is. Okay. I think he might in the beginning, but I don't have any reason yet to suggest that he can hit left-handed major league pitching.

All right, well, I'm done today. Also, I'll read an email about Denny's on Tomorrow's show. A follow-up from our eggs conversation yesterday. Thanks so much for listening. I would like to... I want to apologize to the Mighty, Mighty Bostones. I did read what the song was about. It is about something important.

Yes. The lyrics. The lyrics are still a little shallow. I'm glad you apologize. I'm sorry to Mighty and his Boston. We'll be back tomorrow. Knock on Wood. See that.

Don't know.