Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/09 Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Bundy, Paxton, Worryometer

Episode Date: May 9, 2018

Is it time to drop Dylan Bundy (1:00)? Which TOR RP should you add while Roberto Osuna is out (5:30)? Any prospects that might help your teams any time soon (11:20)? And how about James Paxton (13:40)...!? We recap Tuesday's action on a busy episode of FBT ... Some hype for Alex Gordon (16:35) and more Matt Adams discussion (19:14). Plus we give you some players who may be underowned (24:00) like Andrew Heaney before getting started with Worryometer Wednesday (27:48): Matt Carpenter, Andrew Benintendi, Willson Contreras, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Altuve and three SPs who struggled last night ... Breakout alert! Some hitters (45:15) and some pitchers (49:05) who look like they are taking the next step. We talk more about yesterday's performers and grade your trades (58:25)! ... Your emails at fantasybaseball@cbsi.com To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 R.A. Dickie, Stephen Wright, Chris doesn't buy the hype of random number generators, throw an uncle boss. Scott likes using jiffs the most. Adam loves ERA and auto tunes himself this way. Paxton's regression screams for Hendricks, Bradhand, Mike Todd plays near Disneyland. Home day. We got a no-hater to talk about. We've got a closer situation, unfortunately, to talk about. And a lot more great the trade coming up on today's show. Welcome, everybody. It is Adam with Team Kreeh. Heath and Chris are here. Good morning, Heath and Chris. Hello.
Starting point is 00:00:45 Yay. I want to talk about last night's historic pitching performance. Oh, okay. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. It's obviously not James Paxton. Why? Because obviously, because that's what you do. You set it up and then you say something.
Starting point is 00:01:00 Oh, Dylan Bundy. Classic, classic Heath Myth Direction. There have been like, what, 15 million baseball games in the history of the world? Never before in a major league baseball game has a pitcher allowed seven runs, four home runs in a start and not recorded an out. It's amazing when things happen that have never before happened in Major League Baseball, Dylan Bundy, arguably the worst pitching performance in Major League history. That's pretty good. Yeah. Can I tell you that that's actually one of my favorite things about this job?
Starting point is 00:01:39 is covering baseball, and things happen in baseball, actually almost all the time that have never happened before or have rarely happened before, and that amazes me. And I love seeing stats like that. I mean, I'm sorry that it was this kind of stat, but I do love that history is made like all the time in baseball. I guess we can start with Bundy. It's Worryometer Wednesday, so we could just put him on the Worryometer. Zero to 10. Worryometer on Bundy, who has now had three terrible starts in a row. So 23 hits and 19 runs over nine innings in his last three starts.
Starting point is 00:02:16 Eight? Yeah. Like 10. It's not like, ah, he's fine, by-low. No. No. No. And here's a big part of why.
Starting point is 00:02:30 His velocity was down last year. We talked about it a lot. He was hit or miss, but it's gone down even more, especially over the last couple of starts. He's down to like 91, 90 miles per hour over his last couple of starts. Yeah, I think, I don't know, he, there have been moments where he just hasn't looked right. The command has lost, he's lost the command over the last couple of starts. And what we're seeing right now is that he can be a good starter when he's throwing 93.
Starting point is 00:03:06 He can be a good starter when he's commanding his pitches. He can't not do both. And if he doesn't do either, he's going to be really bad. I got a tweet after tweeting that said, these are the types of starts that make people spite drop pitchers. And that's absolutely true. And generally speaking, spite dropping is a bad idea. You should not make emotional decisions with your fantasy baseball roster.
Starting point is 00:03:33 But I'm not even sure if it's a spite drop. Especially in a 10-team league, there could absolutely be someone out there exciting enough to just dump Bundy right now. Would you pick them up if you saw Bundy on waivers? It would depend on who I had to drop. Are there any of those hot-shot rookie pitchers that you take over Dylan Bundy right now? Oh, there's just, yes. I need...
Starting point is 00:03:58 Well, who, Walker Bueller? That's really close, but I think so. Well, then who else would it be? I'm forgetting who number one might be. We're talking Fernando Romero. Does Sean Newtick? Okay. Well, how about this?
Starting point is 00:04:14 Scott ranked the 16 breakout pitchers from the start of this season. Yeah. So let's just go through it. All right. Tyson Ross. Would you drop Dylan Bundy for Tyson Ross? Yes. Walker Bueller.
Starting point is 00:04:29 Yes. Mike Soroka. No. And I would not have Soroka that finalist. Caleb Smith. No. Joey Lacasee. He's probably not available.
Starting point is 00:04:39 No. But I'd rather have Luckeesie then. Bendy. Trevor Cahill. No. You would rather have Bundy than Cahill. Yes. Skaggs. Ooh. I'm gonna tell us scads. I think I am. Nick Kingham. I'm not ready to Kingham yet.
Starting point is 00:04:56 Domingo Hermann. If I, in a points league, if I had closer problems, I'd rather have Hermann. Fernando Romero. I'd rather have Romero. Tyler Malley. I'd rather have Bundy. Nick Povetta. I'd rather have Bundy. Rinaldo Lopez. I'd rather have Bundy. Ventil.
Starting point is 00:05:12 guys. Buddy. Okay. Yeah. Hey, check out Scott's article. All right, that's enough. Start stealing your job, Adam. Now we know all the names on Scott's article.
Starting point is 00:05:22 Basically, except he left out too. So find out who those two lucky pitchers are. The big news, Roberto Osuna was arrested for assault. He is on administrative leave. Cannot play for at least a week. And we do not know how long he might be suspended or will be suspended. He might not be suspended. but obviously it sucks.
Starting point is 00:05:44 I'm tired of these types of stories, but, you know, I will not presume anything as of now. Anyway, Tyler Clippert, Ryan Tepera, Sengwon O, John Axford were mentioned as save candidates. Hey, sneakily, the Blue Jays bullpen has been really good this year. Like, Tyler Clippard did not look like he had much left. He's been really good. Same with all these guys.
Starting point is 00:06:05 Teparis O, Axford, and Clippert have been good. So, Heath, you picked up Sengone O. Is he the guy that you would suspect would be the frontrunner for saves in Toronto? John Gibbons was very coy, and frankly, it sounded like a little bit shook by the whole situation when he discussed it. It said, you know, I still like my options. I'm not going to commit to one guy yet. We'll just see what it takes to get us to the ninth inning. I generally fall back on that managers want someone who has done this before.
Starting point is 00:06:34 O has done it most recently, and he's done it most extensively. We forget that in the KBO he had like, 300 saves. Over his career between Korea, Japan, and here in the States, he has almost 400 saves, and he has 40 in the last two years. I rank them O, then Clippard, then Ackstford, then Tepera. Oh, Clippard, Axford, Tepara. And how much fab would you use on Sengwano? Not very much. It would depend on the type of league in like a standard points league, none. and he was not available in our 16 team categories league, but in that type of league, I might go as high as like 15%.
Starting point is 00:07:18 Okay, so yeah, you have to be, I guess, kind of desperate for closers. Do you have any... What do you think? Should we even guess how long? I don't think there's any point in guessing. I don't think it's like a week. Yeah. David Price is going to have an MRI due to numbness in his hand.
Starting point is 00:07:39 So he had that issue earlier. He scratched from today's start. David Price is going to have an MRI. We should have an update tomorrow. I think this is huge news. Mike Trout did not Homer at Colorado. Now, if he goes a full series at Corsefield without homering, then we'll put him on a worryometer.
Starting point is 00:07:54 Might have the bite drop him. You know who did Homer? Justin Upton. All of the Royals. All of the Royals, Hobart. And you are very happy about it. We'll get to the Royals. Cincinnati acquired Matt Harvey from the Mets for Devin Mazzaraco.
Starting point is 00:08:09 This is a fantasy irrelevant trade, right? I mean, Devin Mazzaraco was good at one point. Maybe with everyday plate appearances, which is what he'll probably get in New York. Maybe he can rediscover that for him. He was an all-star, like, was that four or five years ago, and he's had a bunch of hip issues since then, and he might just be washed up. All that to say, I'm more interested in Devin Mazzarco than Matt Harvey. Yeah, I would agree with that.
Starting point is 00:08:34 I do not really believe that Devin Mazzaraco can play baseball every day, especially catching. So I'm not – like, there is – I would not add him over John Hicks. Justin Turner is hoping to return from a fractured wrist next week. Well, the only thing I'll say about John Hicks is that Miggi could be back in a couple weeks, right? He could be. All right, so just to keep that about it. But there will be another catcher in a couple weeks. Devin Mazzarco probably won't still be healthy by them.
Starting point is 00:09:01 Clayton Kershaw could resume throwing soon, which is great news. Ken Giles got a save for Houston. Raphael Palmero is going to play independent league baseball at age 53. Heath, you're the closest to 53. You're not even close to 53. Do you think he can pull it off? Can he bat 250 in independent ball? That is a factual statement that I am the closest to 53,
Starting point is 00:09:26 and I would also say that I'm the closest to Raphael Palmero on the podcast. I would post the highest batting average. Do you think Raphael Parmer could dunk? If given, say, six months to... No, he'd probably pull us growing. But I would say that I would post the highest batting average in independent league if we all played a... Is this the Long Island Ducks or whichever team always does this? I don't think so. Okay.
Starting point is 00:09:47 The Sugarland Skeeters? I don't know, actually. I feel like if it were the Long Island Ducks, the article would have said so. Is there any sport, Heath, do you think I could beat you in? Because I'm not sure that I could. I can't think of one. I was very good at kickball. I really was. I was thinking like a punt pass and kick kind of thing I don't have a bunch of a half a half a lot of you think Adam can throw something
Starting point is 00:10:11 yeah my arm is not my strength what is your strength athlete and I'm not trying to say I'm a good athlete I am washed I'm just saying that there's not anything you could beat me yet you know I think I would do pretty well in the football field I'm a sneaky good football player decent I'm a good wide receiver you'd be surprised you're uh you're too light he's a Danny Oman Doleck It's touch football by the way Atlanta called up Louise Gohara.
Starting point is 00:10:35 He will pitch out of the bullpen. We did talk about this yesterday. Scott thinks it could be a good thing in the long run because Gohara could pick up RP eligibility. And Lance McCullors, he's having a pretty good year, but I thought he had a funny quote. He said something like, if anyone knows where his curveball is, have it overnight into Mid It Made Park.
Starting point is 00:10:51 So it's a guy who's got one of the best curve balls in baseball. McCullors hasn't really had a feel for it this year. Didn't have a great start yesterday, but still having a really good season. I mean, imagine what happens when he gets here. his curveball back. All right. We've got Dynasty talk.
Starting point is 00:11:06 You know, people wanted to hear about Dynasty stuff, and I haven't really done it. But I think on Friday, we'll spend some time talking Dynasty. And, yeah, and prospects like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Are there any prospects that come to mind right now that you think you have to have? I was thinking of maybe Adomis for the raise. It seems, Danny Enchevaria has a bruised eye. It seems pretty minor. Well, Twitter reports that we've got a prospect coming up.
Starting point is 00:11:32 today for the New York Mets. Oh, really? His name is, and I'm going to butcher this, because I'd never actually heard it pronounced, Luis Guillermo, G-U-I-L-L-O-R-M-E. And I did add him in our N-L-O-only league. He is a middle-infield prospect. Allegedly the best defensive middle infielder the Mets have at any level, including the major leagues. That's hard to believe when Jose Reyes is on their roster. But, yeah, he's been hitting so far at AAA.
Starting point is 00:12:08 I think he's worth a deep league, Ed. Okay, Luis Sciorame, is that what you said? That's what I said. He is from Coral Springs. Oh, that's where I'm from. Went to Coral Springs Charter School. That's not where I went. Anthony Rizzo also from Carl Springs.
Starting point is 00:12:24 Yes. Okay. So he's got a 300, 394, 433 slash line. looks like, I mean, he's got pretty good command to the strike zone if nothing else. He has hit three home runs in over 2,000 minor league played appearances, so not a lot of pop. Gotcha. The obvious answer is Vlad Guerrero. He's the best hitting prospect left in the minors.
Starting point is 00:12:44 He might be, even including Ronald Acuna, the best hitting prospect in baseball. Ronald Acuna's other skills might give him the edge, but Guerrero is beastly. A little bit younger than Acuna. He's 19 years old. He just turned 19. less than two months ago as well, and he is dominating a double. Now, there's a lot of talk within Blue J's circles, you know, the blogosphere and whatnot, that they just may not call him up at all this year.
Starting point is 00:13:13 They may wait until the Super 2 deadline next year, but he's so good that I think at this point, with what he's doing in the miners, he has to be owned. He plays third, right? Yes. So we just need to wait for Donaldson to get traded. Well, they could DHM. They can get rid of Morales. Big Ken?
Starting point is 00:13:31 They could, yeah, I mean. They could sit more hours. There's been some talk of that. Okay, guys, you know who else is good? James Paxson. James Paxson is very good. No hitter. Not even a big deal anymore.
Starting point is 00:13:44 The third no hitter of the year, one was a combined no hitter. But Paxton, look, he's got a 340 ERA, but he's been better than that. I guess if, I don't think this is a small deal, but he does have three walks and four of his last five starts. So the walks are up, but, man, he's really having a great year. 67 strikeouts and 47 and 2 thirds.
Starting point is 00:14:05 We're going to talk about breakouts today. Is James Paxton, you know, really breaking down? No, because we knew he was good. The only, like, I think all of us, I don't know about Heath, but I know Scott and I both believe he's probably a top 10 pitcher when healthy. Yeah, James Paxton doesn't get to be a breakout until he gets through an entire season without being hurt. Do you care about the walks? No. He's been so utterly dominant over his last three starts. And really, he's had two bad starts this season. Like there was a, should I be worried about James Paxton, like, question that we would get after the first few starts, but he's really, really good. He's got 33 strikeouts over his last three starts. You know, he couldn't go deep into his previous two starts because he had thrown 100 and 105 pitches in six and seven innings. So he just decided to, you know,
Starting point is 00:14:58 Throw a complete game, no hit shutout on 99 pitches. He got seven strikeouts, but a lot of swinging strikes for James Paxson. So, awesome start for him. And are there any pitchers that you had ranked ahead of him, that you now would rank behind him? I'm assuming you, Darvish is on that list. Anyone else at Heath that you're moving James Paxson ahead of? Yeah, I'd moved Darvish below him, I think about a week ago. so I'm looking at the rankings right now
Starting point is 00:15:29 I have him 15th I would rather have him I'll move him ahead of Chris Archer I don't think there's anyone else though I mean am I going to move him ahead of Severino or Grinky or Carlos Martinez or Carasco that's what I was going to ask you about I would move him ahead of Carlos Martinez
Starting point is 00:15:50 who's also been really good I mean the question was like for me with James Paxton it's just how long are you going to have him? I think he will be better than those guys. I think he will be in the Strasbourg range when he's healthy. For this season, Martinez has been better than Paxton, right? Yeah, probably.
Starting point is 00:16:10 Even in the last night. It's probably pretty close. All right, let's talk some more standouts here. We've got to talk about Eddie Rosario at some point and another Minnesota twin who's been really good. Carlos Martinez and James Paxton are back-to-back in points leagues, by the way, separated by five fantasy points. So, Chris, why don't you give me a standout from Tuesday's games?
Starting point is 00:16:34 Wasn't Heath do it? I'm looking to something else up. All right, Heath, go for it. I'll give a standout that you're going to laugh about me bringing up. I can't wait. Go ahead and laugh about it. I'm writing about it. I'm in waiver wire today. I've been holding off and holding off because I couldn't believe it, but I think Alex Gordon might be back. Okay.
Starting point is 00:16:53 And it doesn't make any sense. he was left for dead with his $70 million contract, but he went on the disabled list early this year. He came back and he's just crushing the ball. The weird thing is he's not walking, but his hard contact rate is way up 38%. His line drive rate is back. Three home runs and two doubles since returning from the disabled list.
Starting point is 00:17:16 He's got a 321, 361, 475-slash line and had four hits last night. He's 7% owned. I'm not saying that you should add Alex. Gordon in a standard 12-team league. But he needs to be much higher-owned than that, and we need to keep an eye on it. Okay, Alex Gordon, now he's 8%-owned Heath, so it's skyrocketing. Driving it up. 321 with three home runs in 21 games.
Starting point is 00:17:41 All right, you know what? You've been spot on a lot of stuff this year, and like once upon a time you said Jorge Saler was a sleeper again. So he's, you know, he homered yesterday against Arreidey, Dylan Bundy, by the way, or Hazelair. Obviously, the Royals had a monster game yesterday against a bad pitching. Alex Gordon. Chris, you got to stand out, or are you still looking stuff up? Yeah, I have a couple.
Starting point is 00:18:04 Oh. But let's talk. Are we no longer worried about Luis Castillo? I think we got over that after his last start. He fixed his arm angle and he's okay. Again, two good starts in a row. I don't know how the velocity has been, but like, the velocity, he's one of those guys where the velocity being down is. like, all right, so he's the fifth hardest throwing pitcher in baseball instead of the second.
Starting point is 00:18:28 I don't know how much that really bothers me. Yeah, I don't think there's all that much to worry about with him now. I think the strikeouts have been there the last couple of starts. The swing strikes have been there all season. He's not going to keep up giving up home runs at this rate. I think Luis Castillo is fine. And he's 83% owned. If he's available anywhere, go get him.
Starting point is 00:18:50 Absolutely. Luis Castillo is actually under a, At 83% owned. You want to give your other standout? Chris? The Blake Snell breakout? No, because I have that in. Another segment.
Starting point is 00:19:05 Another segment. Breakout alert. Yeah, go ahead. Aaron Nola. No, he's also in the breakout alert segment. Well, then I can't talk about anyone. Matt Adams. Oh, yes, I picked up Matt Adams.
Starting point is 00:19:18 I dropped Mike Biter. He only had, I mean, you just went one for three with a double last night. But what matters is, They were facing a lefty. You knew they wanted to get Ryan Zimmerman in the lineup against a lefty. Zimmerman got in the lineup playing first base, but they didn't want to take Matt Adams out. They put him in left field. Matt Adams is 66% owned.
Starting point is 00:19:35 If he's playing every single day or five days, five and a half, six days a week, he needs to be 100% owned. Over the last calendar year, he has the 10th highest slugging percentage in baseball. He has the 25th highest Wobah in baseball. tied in Way to Run Creative Plus with Nolan Aeronado. Yeah. Probably it's just somewhat of a hot streak, because I mentioned yesterday about Matt Adams. I know you weren't on the show. A year and a half long hotline?
Starting point is 00:20:04 Well, he had, but you look at last year, he had a 10 homer month. He homered 10 times in June. He did not homer more than three times in any other month. All right. So this is the thing with Matt Adams. And it's something similar to what I've said about Jose Martinez this season, which that he probably needs to be one of the team's two or three best hitters to justify staying in the line.
Starting point is 00:20:31 Just because his defense and his base running, his defense especially, and his defense, especially in left field. Right. But Adam Eaton's coming back. Right. And if Adam Eaton's coming back. Eventually he's coming back. Eventually he's coming back.
Starting point is 00:20:44 Okay. But here's like, the Braves did this last year. They moved Freddie Freeman to third base because they wanted to keep. keep Matt M's batten lineup. And then they realize that when he's not the hottest hitter in baseball, you can't really live with his glove, especially in left field, or especially when you have to move someone out of their natural position. Now, maybe he just stays hot and Ryan Zimmerman continues to struggle and they just start him every day. But he's probably not going to start every day against lefties when he's probably not going to start every day when Adamian gets back.
Starting point is 00:21:18 It's probably not going to start against lefties every day when Adam eats out. Like pick him up, ride the hot hand, but... Right. That's what I was going to say. It's like, I don't really care at this point if Matt Adams keeps it up all year. I want him right now. So I was... I actually wasn't really trying to criticize the Matt Adams ad.
Starting point is 00:21:39 I did add him. You've already hurt my feeling. No, I think it's a good call. You got to ride this out and see where it goes. I just... I'm not going to invest in him as if I expect him to be great. all season long. But yeah, I mean, and he's one of those guys that the more he plays, the worst he'll play. Because he's going to face more lefties and he can't hit them.
Starting point is 00:21:56 Like, we already get a devil off a lefties. We are eight seasons in. Yeah, he'll hit a double off a lefty occasionally. But we're eight seasons into his career where 2,000 plate appearances in. He has a 600 OPS against lefties. He can't hit them. Wow. You know what I really like about Matt Adams is that he's a smart guy? And so I'm just going to make an assumption about him. I'm just going to assume that he uses the Sikhie Gap. Because every smart person, you know, should be using the Seeky app. All right, we got a Yankees game tomorrow night. Yankees Red Sox, I am toying with them.
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Starting point is 00:23:47 Grade the trade. Oh, what a glorious day. This is my favorite one. Oh, okay. You didn't know that, huh? I love that scene. That is awesome. Oh, man, I love that movie.
Starting point is 00:24:10 Yeah, so that's coming up later. Grade the Trade at Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. Underowned alert. We've already established Luis Castillo is under owned. What about these three players? Jeremy Ellickson, perfect game after six innings yesterday. and six and two-thirds scoreless at San Diego. He's 42% owned, Jeremy Helixson.
Starting point is 00:24:30 Alan Hanson, he is playing second base for the Giants. He's got some speed. He's got two steals in 10 games. 25% own, Alan Hanson. And this one I'm pretty interested in. I want to know what you think about. Andrew Heaney, 26% owned. I think Heaney's made five starts.
Starting point is 00:24:46 He's had one really terrible start against the Giants. Other than that, he's been solid. And Heaney's 26% owned and did well at Colorado last thing. So Helixen, 42%, Alan Hansen, 25%. Andrew Heaney, 26%. Do you see an underowned player that you're interested in on that list? I think Helixen was underowned for this week with two starts and one of them being at San Diego, but I don't actually think he's good.
Starting point is 00:25:10 The Padres are just absolutely awful against right-handed pitching, and that's a great pitching environment. He took advantage of it. Good for him. I hope you got the points. Not somebody you're going to be starting after this week. I think Andrew Heaney's probably a little underowned. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:25:26 This was a guy who was the top left-hand of pitching prospect in baseball. And he kind of hasn't been able to do anything. I think he basically lost, what, three seasons due to Tommy John, at least two. So he's showing signs of being pretty good. And I think that yesterday, Heath and I were talking about this before the show. Scott's not here to refute it. so I'll just go ahead and say it. The Rockies have a bad lineup. They're not a good matchup in Colorado, but they have a bad lineup. Their offense isn't good. But he's still through a quality start in Colorado,
Starting point is 00:26:00 and that's still impressive. So I think he needs to be more owned than 26%. Now Hansen's interesting, like you said. There is some speed there. Former prospect who kind of fell off the radar, but still steals a lot of bases in AAA, not super efficiently. None of the stats stand out, but he could be a 15th steal, guy. I just feel like this power came from the middle of nowhere. It was like, mbop. Hansen, very good, very good. I try to pick up Hansen dropping Derek Dietrich, don't ask. In a 13-team Roto League, I was outbid substantially. I think he went for like 42 bucks out of a $250 budget. That's too much. Yeah, well, when you have twice a week, Fab, guys tend to go for too much. Jose Parraza went for $120.50% of the budget last week. Yeah, so I knew that was going to
Starting point is 00:26:52 and I was not willing to overspend on Hansen. But I got Matt Adams for eight bucks. You know, Hansen went for like five times that much. That's probably a mistake. All right, so put Hanson on your radar and Andrew Heaney. Not only did Heaney have a quality start against Colorado, but three starts ago, five innings, one run, nine strikeouts against the Yankees. So good stuff there.
Starting point is 00:27:11 All right, time for the Worryometer. But first, email of the day, number one, is from Devin. Devin says, subject, greatest villain, Heath Ledger, as the Joker. and it's not even close. Yeah, that, yeah, that's correct. We missed that one. I thought he was saying I was the greatest villain. I was pretty excited.
Starting point is 00:27:31 Yeah, in podcast history, you might be. But Heath Ledger is maybe the greatest villain. The most evil villain is Ramsey Bolton. But the greatest villain might be Heath Ledger's the joke about it. I think Darth Vader, right? Cruella DeVille is clearly the most evil villain. That's, okay. Email the day number two is Nate from Phil.
Starting point is 00:27:51 I think we need to have some serious conversations about Matt Carpenter. I understand the peripheral numbers look great, but he's batting 153 with an OPS of 662. I think it's time to say that Matt Carpenter stinks, and we have no valid explanation other than the results. We are not smart enough to figure this out with in-depth analysis. He's done and fried just admit it so we can all drop Matt Carpenter and get on with our baseball lives. I'm sorry, but Team Kreeh is not the team to come out with this. We are not smart enough to figure it out. You're not going to get less to admit that.
Starting point is 00:28:22 Well, it's time for the Wariometer, and we're leading off with Matt Carpenter. Zero to 10 on Matt Carpenter batting 152 right now or 153. You have to be worried because this is two years in a row of him underperforming, although we would kill for performance like last year right now. But look, you have to trust your process. Whatever your process in judging players is, you have to be consistent. You can't just say, oh, well, it doesn't apply to this guy unless you have a really good reason. There's not a really good reason to think that Matt Carpenter is going to have the second lowest babbip of the last 50 years.
Starting point is 00:29:07 There has only been one time in the last 50 years where a player has had a babbip of 200 or under. and that's sorry twice. Aaron Hill in 2010 and Ted Simmons in 1981. Those are the only times that a player has had a babb of 200 or below over the last 50 seasons. Matt Carpenter is at 186 right now. Gary Chances is at 187. Anthony Rizzo is at 185.
Starting point is 00:29:34 Bryce Harper is at 184. If you're going to drop Matt Carpenter, drop all those guys too because there's all due to... Well, that's not quite fair because he's not homering either. I mean, he's not doing anything. Neither is Anthony Rizzo. Yeah, that's true. Anthony Rizzo has been worse this season.
Starting point is 00:29:48 If we're going to say you have to drop McCarbner, he's doomed to be crap. But last year. And you have to say the same thing about Anthony Rizzo. No, because. MacGarverner was good last year. No, he was not good last year. He was only good in leagues that count walks. He was the number 25 first baseman in fantasy.
Starting point is 00:30:02 Adam, he had like an 830 OPS. Because of his OPP. Right, yes. I understand that, but he wasn't like this hopeless, no, useless player. No, no, no. He wasn't. Right. But if you're saying.
Starting point is 00:30:14 this is who he is now. No, it's not. I didn't say that. I didn't say that. I'm replying to the listener's email. No, but you're also getting out of control. No, but listen, we have to, the difference between him and all those other guys is that Matt Carpenter was the number 25
Starting point is 00:30:30 first baseman in fantasy last year in rotissory leagues. And he was number 12 in points leagues because he has really good plate discipline. I'll hit you some doubles. But, you know, we are seeing one other thing that's not an advanced stat, but the last two years, this year and last year, really, bad against lefties. And that might be the sign of decline. I mean, that's kind of what happened to like Adrian Gonzalez.
Starting point is 00:30:49 Just got really bad against lefties. Carpenter's 2 for 21 with no extra base hit so far against lefties. Okay. So that's just something to keep in mind. I agree, like, he's not this bad, but I do question just how good he actually is. His OPS is very much weighted by his on-base percentage, and I just don't know he's going to give you much more. Yeah, I still think he's probably going to hit 270.
Starting point is 00:31:14 Like, I just, I don't see any reason. Like, all the reasons that we would say, well, like Joey Gallo, oh, well, he's going to have a low babbitt because he hits too many fly balls. He doesn't hit line drives. He pulls the ball too much. All this, like, that stuff's not really true about Matt Carpenter. It's not really true about Joey Gallo anymore either. But Mac Carpenter is a 25% line drive rate right now.
Starting point is 00:31:37 He's still hitting the ball hard. All of the, like, like I said early, you have to be consistent You don't. You don't have to be consistent. You do. Nope. You don't. Most of us are not.
Starting point is 00:31:49 I am. Okay. You have to be consistent then, because that's your thing. But nobody else does. Yeah. I just... Where are you on this, Heath? Four.
Starting point is 00:32:01 That's summing it up. I'm sorry, Chris. I wasn't trying to jump on you. I just... I don't think that Carpenter is the same as those other guys because I do think that... He's not. This doesn't think he is either. Matt, we should start calling him
Starting point is 00:32:13 Ready for this hilarious joke? Matt, intentional walk Carpenter, because we keep giving him a free pass. Right? Free pass. No. I'm just saying, the thing that saves Carpenter to me is that he is second base eligible, right?
Starting point is 00:32:30 I believe so. He is. And he's good. I'm not sure where he's going to measure up as a 270 hitter if he hits 23 home runs, which is, you know, what he hit last year. As a first baseman or a third baseman, I don't really know how good that is anymore.
Starting point is 00:32:47 So that's my point. It's in a points league if you walks. Yeah, points league. Yeah. It's useful. It's useful. Yeah, yeah. I still like Carpenter.
Starting point is 00:32:55 I'm not down on him that much. I'm not actually, like, Adam, I'm not actually disagreeing with you as much as I'm disagreeing with the emailer who's saying, like, people need to drop him. Like, go ahead, drop Matt Carpenter. That's fine. But there's not, based on the ways we typically judge players, we should. we should be buying Matt Carpenter. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:33:16 And I'm going to be consistent with that because it works out more often than it doesn't. And if it doesn't work out with Matt Carpenter, that sucks. But I'm not going to change my approach because one guy may be an outlier. Okay. I mean, that's totally fair. And I get it. And I don't, I mean, I mostly agree. And I think he does do.
Starting point is 00:33:35 All right, here we go. Worryometer Wednesday continues with Andrew Benintendi, who is batting 24 with No home runs in his last 16 games. And he's striking out a lot in his last 16 games. Five walks, 18Ks. Versus lefties this year. Ben Intendi is batting 133 with two doubles in 30 at bats. So Heath, Worryometer Wednesday on Andrew Benintendi.
Starting point is 00:33:59 Yeah, I'll go five maybe for this year and a three for the future. He's still 23 years old. he's still, if you look at his numbers on a hole for this year, because I have a hard time parsing a fifth of a season into different segments. You look at his numbers on the whole, he's got 12% walk rate, 18% strikeout rate. He's not hitting lefties and he's not hitting the ball hard. So that does give me a little bit of concern. I still think he's probably going to steal 20 bases.
Starting point is 00:34:31 He's got to hit well enough to stay in the order on a regular basis so that he can give us the run production numbers that I was expecting. All right, that's Andrew Ben and Tendi we're talking about. Andrew Benintendi or Kairis Davis? Chris Davis. Oh, Keris, yeah. Okay. But that was true before the season.
Starting point is 00:34:48 That's, yeah. Was? I thought they were pretty, four million rows. I don't think it wasn't points. Okay. Andrew Benintendi or Andrew McCutcheon? Benintendi. Yeah, that was an easy one.
Starting point is 00:35:04 All right, last one. Ben and Tendee or Pollock? Pollock. Okay. I'm going to take a quick pause from Wuriameter Wednesday to talk to you about the draft app. I was so close yesterday. I came in second. Thanks to Aaron Nola, who's breaking out, by the way. Ian Desmond, give me a zero. Francisco Indoor, good game. Charlie Blackman, good enough. Reese Hoskins, a little bit disappointing. But that was my draft app team. The team that won in my little five-person contest had Cluber, Stanton, Stanton, Story, Schwarber, and Justin Upton. So it's a lot of fun. You know, we play, it's five players, right? Five picks.
Starting point is 00:35:37 one pitch or two infielders, two outfielders. Now you can play expert mode and take away some of the best players and make it a little bit more challenging. But whatever you do, when you sign up for draft, make sure you use the promo code F-B-T-day. F-B-T-A-T-E-T-E-T. Get into a real money game for free with that promo code, F-B-T-T-E-T. I will challenge you. I am Big K-K-N-2. If you use the promo code, you'll automatically be following me.
Starting point is 00:35:59 Otherwise, you can add me, Big K-A-N-2 on the draft app. I love it. I play all the time. I'll play multiple times a day. You can play for as little as a buck, get some cold hard cash, and get paid out the next day. So join the draft app or play on draft.com and use the promo code FB today. Worryometer Wednesday on Wilson Contreras. Not that high.
Starting point is 00:36:27 Three. Like there are changes that he appears to have made to his swing, although it's 30 games, so it's hard to say whether it's intentional or not. But he is certainly making more. contact and making less impressive contact. And those two things generally, I think, go together. They certainly, that's what we think. So that's a concern because he is different than he was in the last couple of years.
Starting point is 00:36:59 But I also just, like, what is he, the number six catcher? Yeah, as long as he's got catcher eligibility, I'm going to be a zero. Yeah. Yeah, I put out some by-low offers on Wilson-Gentreras. I might be a little bit more aggressive on that too because he plays all the time. He sat yesterday. And he has streaked before.
Starting point is 00:37:17 So it doesn't seem like we're worried about Contreras. Paul Goldschmidt, zero to ten. Is this borderline first round pick Paul Goldschmidt or top three pick Paul Goldman? I'm worried about borderline first round pick Paul Gulchement. The Humidor effects, it's too early to say definitively, but they, the early returns are that there is an effect and that it's real and that it's pretty close to what was expected. Offense is down in Arizona.
Starting point is 00:37:51 A.J. Pollock accepted. And he's striking out a bunch. Now, the plate discipline numbers are actually pretty similar. He's not swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone. He's not swinging them missing terribly more often. So it's not super concerning that he's striking out. That seems a little fluky. Give me a number.
Starting point is 00:38:10 Three. Two. He's slumping right now, Paul Goldschmidt. Three for 30. And he's not running. That's the thing. He's not running. Two steals and two attempts.
Starting point is 00:38:20 And he's been terrible at home. 150 batting average with no homers in 19 games. So if you were drafting again today, we were basically thinking Paul Goldschmidt was around 12th overall, right at the end of the first round, beginning of the second round. Maybe more like 10th. But, you know, in that range. Where would you draft Goldschmidt today?
Starting point is 00:38:38 Well, who's moved in front of him? Aaron Judge, probably. Rani Machado. Mani Machado. Judge is kind of interesting because, man, that whole thing about him not striking out that much is... Yeah, no, that's... He's striking him. I mean, he looks like the same guy he was last year, and the guy he was last year's good.
Starting point is 00:38:55 Yeah. Better than Goldschmidt, probably. Yeah, early second round. Well, is Goldschmidt fourth at first base behind Rizzo Vado Freeman? I don't know how you could drop Goldschmidt behind Rizzo. Yeah. Like Rizzo has done less than nothing. Because Rizzo's Rizzo.
Starting point is 00:39:10 You know, he's going to... Goldschmidt's Gullchmidt. Is he? He's not running anymore, and he plays. in a worst ballpark than he ever did. Yeah, I would still take Goldschmidt over Rizzo for sure. Okay. Worryometer on Jose Al Tuvei, who has two homers and one steal.
Starting point is 00:39:25 Zero. It's worrying that he's not running. Yeah, I'll say two. But, I don't know, it's Jose Altuve. Yeah. Okay. And worryometer on, Marcus Stroman. Seven?
Starting point is 00:39:43 Like, any time you come back from a shoulder injury and... stink. I think you have to be really concerned. Yeah, I'm just going to go back to his career. He's thrown 600 innings exactly in the major leagues now. He's got a 7.37K per 9. You could still be a good pitcher with those type of strikeout numbers. You don't have hardly any upside at all, though. Except in points leagues, if you just go a bunch of eight.
Starting point is 00:40:18 If he could throw 200 innings again, yeah. Yeah, yeah. And I think he possibly could. So I'm not really that worried. I think it's kind of like what I used to say about Dallas Keiko. When you put the ball in play that often, you are susceptible. Now, a big problem for him is the ball's been in play less often because it's going over the fence and because he's walking guys. So that would be the concern.
Starting point is 00:40:43 But the rest of it's not, it's not really that concerning for him to have a seven-start stretch like. this. Okay, that's Marcus Stroman. Two more. Worryometer on Rich Hill. Zero. Really? Okay.
Starting point is 00:40:58 This was his first start back from the D.L. Right? Yep. Everybody gets one. He's going to be on the DL again soon. He always is. And he's going to have starts like this, regardless of whether he's coming back from the DL or not.
Starting point is 00:41:10 He's an inconsistent pitcher. We saw this last year where he was dropped widely for the first couple of months of the season. But this also wasn't his only bad start this year. No. He's got a 7-11 ERA. I will say I watched the game last night, and the Dodgers broadcaster said it's not a stuff issue. His curveball still looks really good. It's a location issue.
Starting point is 00:41:30 And he wasn't just talking about yesterday. He was talking about all season long. Rich Hill just hasn't had command. I think it was no more. It's according to whoever was doing the game for the Dodgers. I'm going to change my number. I don't even know if I'd given a number yet. But Rich Hill's had one good start all year.
Starting point is 00:41:47 he's only made four then one of them three of them have been two of them have been disasters yeah one of them was whatever number and he's been hurt number seven
Starting point is 00:41:58 okay I mean wow I don't know it's just it doesn't feel like we have any new information on Rich Hill here Rich Hill doesn't have a long enough track record where it takes much information to change your mind All right next guy last guy Zach Godley
Starting point is 00:42:11 Zach Godley has a 383 ERA 18 walks 37 strikeouts and 40 innings he has a he's maybe a Babbitt victim 325 Babbitt a lot of soft contact
Starting point is 00:42:23 for Godly Worryometer on him One Here's my thing If I hadn't Overadjusted so much From Godley's really good start Then I probably wouldn't be worried at all
Starting point is 00:42:40 But now I'm a little bit worried Where do you have Godley ranked I think it's I know it's top 30 it might be a little higher than that. I'm trying to pull it up, but it's not happening very quickly. Luis Castillo or Zach Godley?
Starting point is 00:42:58 I had Godly 29th and Castillo 30th. Castillo is ahead of Godly now. Okay, okay. So now I have Castillo 29th and Godly 30th, and I'm actively surfed. But the problem is all the pitchers right behind him, I think you've got Rich Hill at 34. You've got U. Darvish at 32.
Starting point is 00:43:14 You've got Jake Arietta. You got James and Tyone. It's hard. to find guys. I may move Sean Newcomb into the top 30 ahead of them. Yeah, we really have to talk about Sean Newcomb. All right, so let's talk about the breakout alert here. And I'll give you some more news and notes real quick.
Starting point is 00:43:31 We welcome back a bunch of players. Andrew Miller could be back in a couple of days. Corey Canable will return today. Josh Hader got a save yesterday. Jonathan's scope is back. Adrian Belchray is back. DJ LeMayhew is back. Shohei Otani, likely to start on Sunday against the twins.
Starting point is 00:43:46 He pinch hit yesterday. Good stuff. Right, because they don't have a DH, so they're... He's just their Sunday starter from now on. It's like college. It's like Japan. You know what the problem with being the Sunday starter is? What?
Starting point is 00:44:00 One rain out. You're just one rain out away. That's Otani. Yasio Puig could return today, and Javier Baez should be starting today. Some news and notes. The Cubs interested in Manny Machado, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. Aledmus Diaz is on the D.L with an ankle sprain. Todd Frazier, D.L.
Starting point is 00:44:18 with a hamstring strain. Greg Byrd expected to begin a rehab assignment soon. Wade Miley left with an oblique strain, and Brent Suter replaced him for the brewers and pitched well. Leonis Martinez-Marine's on the DL with a hamstring strain. Jason Hayward is on the seven-day concussion DL. He might see more Ben Zobris, hopefully more Ian Hap. A Danny Ettervaria left with an eye contusion, but seems minor. Nate Avaldi is going to make his second rehab start, and I don't know if I really need to be stashing Danny Salazar at this point.
Starting point is 00:44:47 he's being temporarily shut down. He's on the 60-day DL. So he's probably at least a month away from coming back. Yeah, I have him in a couple leagues where I've had to like, where I've hit the starting pitcher. I think in the editorial league that we're in, we have like a starting pitcher roster limit. I've considered dropping him there.
Starting point is 00:45:03 I've considered dropping him another one where I need a DL spot. I just, I don't know if he's going to come back and I don't know if he's going to be good when he does. That's Danny Salazar. So now let's do the breakout alert. Sorry for waiting so long for this segment. Okay. of these hitters, who do you think might be breaking out?
Starting point is 00:45:20 Corey Dickerson, number nine outfielder in points, number 13 in Roto, Corey Dickerson. By the way, the pirates have faced by far the fewest lefties in baseball. He has 16 at bats against lefties, and he's done well, but they've faced the fewest. A. E. Oh, Haneo Suarez, has been just on a tear since coming off a deal. Eduardo Escobar for the Twins' Top Ten shortstop. And Jamer Candelario, who's only 62 percent owned. These other guys are mostly owned.
Starting point is 00:45:47 Candelario is 62% owned and had a great September. And he's got an 888 OPS right now. Dickerson, Suarez, Escobar, Candelario. Who's breaking out? I don't think Ahio Hanyu Suarez is because I think he broke out last year. Jeremy Candelario, I think, is just good. I don't know how good he is, especially for fantasy, because he's probably not going to have enough over-the-fence power,
Starting point is 00:46:17 to really make a difference, but I think he's a good hitter. He's going to walk a lot. He's not going to strike out very much. I think he needs to be owned in. The problem is his better format is points, and that's the shallower format. But I think he's a starting caliber player in that format, and he's probably not far off in Roto either. Dickerson, it's hard to say. There's a lot of positive.
Starting point is 00:46:42 There are a ton of positive indicators for him. He's not swinging and missing at all. He's not striking out at all. What does that look like once he actually faces some lefties? Is he not going to face lefties at all this year? Probably not. Although the NL Central, I guess, doesn't have that many lefties. Well, you've got noted ace Brandon Finnegan.
Starting point is 00:47:02 You've got John Lester, who was in Kintana. Three or four years ago, and Kintana. And the Brewers have Wade Seily, and who just probably went on the DL last night. Brent Suter. Yeah, not a lot of good lefties, at least. Yeah, that actually was brought up to us in an email in preseason. The Pirates could face very few lefties this year.
Starting point is 00:47:29 It's interesting. Dickerson was great before the All-Star break last year. He batted 312 with 17 homers. He batted 241 with 10 homers after the All-Star break. That gives me a little bit of pause. What about Eduardo Escobar? Heath, do you think Eduardo Escobar is breaking out? No, I would have agreed with Chris.
Starting point is 00:47:47 and said that, like, as far as who's breaking out, the one I would definitely say is Candelario, just because he's, like, I think he has 20 home run potential. And if he has 20 home run potential, he may be a 300 hitter that's at the top, near the top of the order most of the time. So Escobar is kind of hard for me to figure out. He's a career 299 bad-bip guy,
Starting point is 00:48:15 so pretty normal. He's at 341 rate. now. If that drops 40 points, then he's back around a 260, 270 hitter again. So let's do some comparisons. Would you rather have Jamer Candelario or Kyle Seeger? Kyle Seeger. I'll still say Seeger, but I think Seeger could be a nice point to aim for if you're Candelario. And would you rather have Jamer Candelariorio or Michael Franco? Catalario. Franco's been pretty hot right now, and I can't quit him.
Starting point is 00:48:44 Would you rather have Eduardo Escobar or Scott Kingery? Escobar, for sure. Depends what my team needs. If I need to steal his kingery. Escobar or Cozart? Cozart. Ah, I think maybe Escobar. All right, let's look at some pitchers.
Starting point is 00:49:03 Any doubts that these guys are breaking out? Aranola, Blake Snell, Sean Newcomb. No, not at all. They are the reason that you bet on, and we saw it with Snell last, year at not working out. We saw it with Carlos Rodon last year at not working out, but the reason you bet on guys like Blake Snell and Sean Newcomb is because when they do break
Starting point is 00:49:24 out, it's so damn good. Yeah, I mean, Snell is amazing. Newcomb has been so good. His change up last night was terrific. He's basically walking like three batters. Three of his last four stars, exactly three walks. I feel like he could live
Starting point is 00:49:40 with that. He's not imploding with walks. But it is for, you know, about four, four and a half walks per nine. Not quite that much. About four, I think. When he throws strikes, he's incredible. There's going to be some inconsistencies with Sean Nukum. I think that's fair to say.
Starting point is 00:49:57 I think there will probably be some inconsistencies with Blake Snell. He's probably pitching a little bit over his head right now, but that's only because he's pitching like one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Yeah, when a pitcher with good control can't find it one day, they might walk guys like Snell and Nukum do normally. There will be a game where one of the best pitchers. Those guys lose it, and it's just going to be terribly good. Although Snell's really not walking anyone.
Starting point is 00:50:22 It's very encouraging. Yeah, I think Blake Snell's probably a top 20 pitcher right now. And I think Aaron Oles should be a top 20 pitcher right now. The issue for Aaron Ola is, can he stay healthy? All right, taking a look at more from yesterday. We'll do grade the trade after this. Gosh, man, I really feel it. All right, tomorrow we'll talk about Eduardo Esk, or Eddie Rosario.
Starting point is 00:50:46 me, Eddie Rosario. He deserves some time. He's been one of the hottest hitters. All right. Luis Severino, six innings, two runs, 11 strikeouts. And Gary Sanchez cost him an inning with bad defense. Sean Mania. Not a great start against Houston, but look at the last five opponents for Sean Mania.
Starting point is 00:51:04 Boston, Seattle twice, and Houston twice. And next week, he's at Boston, and then at Toronto. So still overall great stuff from Mania. John Gray, seven scoreless against the Aneux. Angels, he has turned his season around. He's been great. Three starts in a row, 20 innings, one earn run, 25 strikeouts for John Gray. Drew Pomerant's had his best start.
Starting point is 00:51:25 I don't know how he did this. He just, he is, his velocity's got to be down, right? Drew Pomerantz, I mean, he didn't really look that great last night, but he pitched very, he pitched well, gave up just two home runs to the lefty killer, John Carlos Stanton. And then I mentioned Lance McCuller. It's not great last night, but hasn't really found his best curveball yet. I think Pomerant's pretty interesting. 85% owned.
Starting point is 00:51:49 His velocity is down 2.5 miles per hour this season. I could not believe that the Yankees couldn't really square him up, but that was what he was doing. He was keeping him off balance. Other than Stanton, they didn't really seem to hit him that hard last night. As the great Rex Huddler, like to say, sometimes they hit him like you throw them. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:52:05 Exactly. So I'm not sure that I have the confidence to start Pomerant's next time out. Totally matchup dependent for me. Yeah, and I don't know off the top of my head who it is. Yeah, against a good matchup like the Yankees, you start him. By the way, look at what John Carlos Stanton is hitting against lefties. I think he's batting 400 and has like a 1,700 OPS. That sounds like his career numbers against lefties.
Starting point is 00:52:32 So that means he's hitting like 100 against Ritey. He's batting against Riteys. He can't hit Riteys. He's batting 400 with like a 1500 OPS against lefties. Imagine if you had a platoon of John Carlos Samp. Stanton and Matt Adams. Pretty good. I do want to talk about John Gray.
Starting point is 00:52:50 He has talked over the last couple of starts about how he didn't have his slider early in the season. He said, I was reading one of the Rockies beatwriters who said that after his last start, he said he's starting to find it, but there's another level for him to go to. It looks like he found that level yesterday. Yeah, three starts in a row. He's been great. And I think the thing with Gray is you just look at what he did last year.
Starting point is 00:53:13 He's better at home. 313 ERA. I don't, do you think that if you own John Gray, you have to worry about starting him at home? I'm going to worry about it. I'm not going to feel good about it. And I'm going to be looking for two-star streamers to start over him. But I'm not going to just auto-bench him every time he's at course. And he's the only rocky starter that I would say that about.
Starting point is 00:53:35 And he's 80, he was 80% started. 93% owned, Gray was started in 80% of leagues. And I do wonder, because he has a two-start. week this week. I wonder what the ownership, or excuse me, the start percentage would have been if he had a one start week at home against the Angels. Probably pretty low, and I think we probably would have said not to start him. Yeah, I think we did say not to start
Starting point is 00:53:56 him. But a bunch of dummies. It's interesting. All right, fringy starting pitchers. Who do you want from this group? Yvonne Nova, Danny Duffy, Jake Oteresee, Mike Minor, Lucas Gialito. Nova, Duffy, Oteresee, Minor, Gialito.
Starting point is 00:54:14 A minor if I can use him as a spark And that's really about it Yeah like Danny Duffy needs to be owned Yeah I think I'm Danny Duffy owns the Orioles But he's been he's been not good He's shown Some signs of late
Starting point is 00:54:27 No he hasn't A little bit A little bit But yeah Duffy thinks that he's pitching fine And you're just getting bad results Which is not something I want to hear From a pitcher
Starting point is 00:54:37 That's been as bad as he has so far Do you think Mike fires At 5% Jose Arania at 26 or Clayton Richard, you think any of them are underowned? Jose Arania is having a sort of interesting start to the season because he's been a guy who never ever gets strikeouts despite the fact that he throws the ball really hard and he's starting to creep closer to league average strikeout rate.
Starting point is 00:55:04 He's getting ground balls. There are starting to be some signs. He's throwing his slider more, which was something that Scott White wanted to see earlier in the season. So I have more confidence that he could maybe be a league average pitcher. He has a 375 fit right now. And, you know, you're going to lose a lot of games as a league average pitcher for the Marlins, but he might not be totally useless.
Starting point is 00:55:30 Can I ask a question totally unrelated to what happened last night? Oh, yeah. No. Because I'm just scrolling through the starting pitcher rankings and trying to see where some of these guys, like, what they've done so far if I think they're going to be a little bit worse or a little bit better. Where do they actually rank so far? And I came upon a name and we mentioned him just briefly as a Sunday starter earlier. How are we feeling about Shohei Otani right now? I feel by Lowy on Shohei Atani. It's been a while since he's really done anything noteworthy.
Starting point is 00:56:03 I think he's a really good pitcher. He throws extremely hard and has a terrific slider and a full arsenal. So I think Otani's going to be really good. How are you feeling? Do you think he's also not pitched as much as he's going to pitch moving forward? I expect him to pitch once a week. Yeah, okay, so it's been a month and a quarter. Yes. Of the major league season, a month and a third.
Starting point is 00:56:27 He's made five starts? Yeah, I don't think he's just going to make 20 starts, which is what he's currently on pace for, roughly. Yeah. I don't think he's going to... Do you have played 40 games already? Yeah, they're getting close. The Angels have played
Starting point is 00:56:45 35 games He'll be at six starts at the one quarter mark He's on pace for 24 That sounds about right But also one of those starts But he had a blister He got scratched from his start Yeah I think
Starting point is 00:56:59 Like he's on pace for right around 100 Maybe 120 innings That seems low But you don't expect him to pitch as often as most pitchers It's going to be hard for him to make that up because he's not going to start pitching every five days. Right. How do you feel about him?
Starting point is 00:57:13 I'm just wrap it up here so we got a great traits. I just, I kind of felt like, man, Shohei Otani has been better than I expected. But there's nothing, like he's like 70th in the starting pitcher ranking so far. Even if he'd made one more start, he's right around 45 or 50. But he had another start where he only pitched like two innings
Starting point is 00:57:33 because of the Bliss. And got destroyed by the Red Sox. So just totally by low, we feel fine. No, it depends how low. I mean, I think when he pitch, it's going to be really good. That's just how I feel. And that's happened two out of five starts? Is that not how you feel?
Starting point is 00:57:52 I don't know. I don't know how to feel. I'm not trying to make a proclamation. It's three out of five. The bad starts were versus Boston when he left after two innings with a blister, and then the first start back at Houston. Right. I don't want to make excuses necessarily, but it seems like a pretty decent explanation
Starting point is 00:58:09 for why he wasn't good those starts. He's gone six innings in three of his five. The other one, he went five and a third in the first start back from a blister. So, by-low? I think so, yeah. Okay. So, with that being said, here we go. Stephen Plainfield, Illinois wants us to grade his train.
Starting point is 00:58:32 He got Alex Bregman. Oh, well, that was terrible. This is awful. Way, yeah. Okay. Sorry about that. So I love, you don't like that movie, do you Heath? No, I love that movie. It's a good movie. There are some extremely annoying parts of the movie. But not that. But on the whole, it's a very good movie. All right. Familia, it gave up Familia and Glaver Torres for Alex Bregman. Saves are available on the Waver Wire. Familiar and Torres for Breggman.
Starting point is 00:59:05 Hey. Yeah, seems like it. From Jake. Give up Charlie Blackman. Patrick Corbin and Jorge Soler Blackman, Corbin, and Solair Get Springer Carlos Martinez
Starting point is 00:59:19 and Mike Soroka All right so you go from Blackman to Springer Corbin to Carmart and Soler to Soroka Seems like a C-ish I'm going to say C-minus But I'm probably the lowest on Soroka right now And I just like the best player in the deal
Starting point is 00:59:39 is Blackman So you're giving up the best player. You are getting the best pitcher. But, yeah, I'm going to say C-minus. I don't love it. From Kurt, Roto Keeper League, my $2 Odubo Herrera for an $8, Yohan Moncada. I like that.
Starting point is 00:59:59 Yeah, I think that's probably a B-plus. I think that's going to make you worse this year. But I don't know about in Roto. Maybe not. I'll say B-minus. From Chris, head-to-head categories, give up Whit Merrifield and Mike Clevenger. I already responded to Chris and told him it was an FF, by the way.
Starting point is 01:00:18 Merrifield and Clevenger for Fultenevich and Markechis. Oh, that's an F minus. That's an F minus. That is a, you must be in the Scott White Homework Club. Dylan and California, 16 teams, points league. Give up Glaber Torres, get a roll this Chapman. Yeah, that's not a keeper, right? No.
Starting point is 01:00:41 Yeah, that's an A. Hey. Yeah, good job. Brian in Boston. team categories league. Give up Roberto Ozuna, get Alex Bregman. Was it Robert Ozone or Marcelozozano? Marcelo Zona, sorry, thank you. It's with a Z. It's not as good a deal.
Starting point is 01:00:55 It's not as good a deal at all. Yeah, but I think that's still probably like a B minus. I'll say it's a C. Really? Ozuna and Bregman are even for you? I thought you didn't like Ozuna that much. I've had Ozuna as a top 25 outfielder. Outfield, just about as shallow right now as shortstop is. Okay.
Starting point is 01:01:16 From Mike and Louisville, 10-team points league, give Andrelton Simmons, get Wilson Ramos. Seems like a B. I like that. Yeah, I like that a lot. Yeah, it's a good one. B-plus. From Rick and San Diego, dear Ferris, Cameron, Abe, and George Peterson. Great this trade, some moron in my league made.
Starting point is 01:01:37 He gave up Freddie Freeman and Patrick Corbin, Freeman, and Corbin for Abraeu, Junis, and Sean Maniah. Freeman and Corbyn for Abrae, Junis, and Sean Minia. I give us an F. Yeah. That's what he said. I think that's an F, yeah. I do believe that's an F. I mean, it's like a D.
Starting point is 01:01:55 I don't know if it's an F. I think it's a, you might have given up the two best players in the deal. You did. You did, for sure. But, you know, you still got three useful players. And you also are going to get all the regression from Sean Maya. So that's rough.
Starting point is 01:02:08 He's still going to be good, right? I think he's still going to be startable. He has a 350 Fibb. Let's not overstate the case. Let's start a start. It's good. Very good. A 350 ERA over 180 innings with seven strikeouts per nine is not very good.
Starting point is 01:02:25 It's not bad. You should probably move Dallas Keikl down then. I have been. Probably shouldn't have had him rank that high to begin with. He's been under a three ERA three of the last four years, Chris. Under a three ERA, three of the last ERA matters. He's the best ground ball pitcher. He's probably only thrown 180 innings twice in that span of them.
Starting point is 01:02:42 ERA does matter. Two more times in Shamanai. Glad we agree. That's true. All right. Bad Carpenter Forever. See ya.

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