Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/14: Legitimate Breakouts, Prospects, Nola Concerns? (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 14, 2019

Two players who can steal bases are being called up and we begin the show discussing their values before dusting off the Worryometer (8:15) for Aaron Nola and Shane Bieber. Then Chris (14:25) and Scott (20:30) give us the legitimate breakouts of 2019. Josh Bell, Matt Boyd, Caleb Smith, Jorge Polanco and Mike Minor are discussed and, in some cases, debated ... What about Omar Narvaez, Eduardo Escobar and Tommy La Stella (31:00)? Are they breaking out too? Plus news and notes (37:05) and bullpen updates including the mystery of Hector Neris (40:00) ... And following up on yesterday's discussion of the Griffin Canning Corporation, what are the best baseball player/company names (44:00)? Double dongs (47:10), Bryce Harper thoughts (50:00) and Team Name Tuesday (56:10) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at CBSI.com. Get ready to win your league. Now here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. All right, welcome everybody to the Tuesday show here on May 14th. I'm Adam Azer with Scott White and Chris Towers. And if you want to know some of the legitimate breakouts in 2019,

We're going to talk about them on today's show. Guys, we're off to great starts that we are absolutely buying. We're also going to get worried on a Tuesday. We're going to get turried about Aaron Nola and possibly Shane Bieber. Four home runs allowed by Shane Bieber at the White Sox last night. And we have some exciting call-ups as well. I've teased the show enough. Oh, also, we have company names to follow up on the Griffin Canning episode yesterday.

Scott, we had a lot of submissions with some good baseball player company names. All right. I'm excited for that. Scott commissioned the listeners. He was like, hey, listener, usually I'm the one who does that. He's like, give us some company names, so we got it. And Chris, Chris, we have a just dreadful round of Team Name Tuesday. I'm very much looking forward to that. That's the best. Yeah. Those are the best rounds of Team Name Tuesday. Chris likes Team Name Tuesday probably more than anyone, more than B. This is great.

There's just nothing I love more than wordplay, you know. Just give me bad wordplay. Good word play. It's all great. Okay. I got a submission unsolicited from a friend in one of my leagues, player whose name most sounds like a subdivision. Rich Hill. Why?

I don't get it. No, it does it. A sub. Of what? No, I get it. I don't. Yeah. Yeah, like a gated community.

I think there's a better one. Oh, Rich Hill. It's like, Rich Hill's a little too obvious and on the nose. And these always have like kind of weird, like, beautiful by you. So I think Lasting's millage sounds like the subdivision of a like gated community in the suburbs.

Yeah. Okay, that's very good. Yeah, no, definitely could see that. It's throwback. I like it. Yeah, yeah. I think the best one is so far that I've seen is Garrett Cole.

Like, Garrett Cole is like a great company name for coal mining or whatever it is. Garrett Cole. I think it's great, Chris. You shut up. All right, here we go. Let's talk about the prospects that are being called up. Cleveland will call up Oscar Mercado.

He's 18% owned. He stole 37 bases in 132 games last year. He has 14 steals in 30 games so far this year. Meanwhile, Kansas City, they run more than anyone. They have eight more steals than the next closest team. But the second best team is Texas with 32 steals. Kansas City has 40. Well, now they're adding Nikki Lopez.

Is Whitmerfield's going to play the outfield, and Nikki Lopez is going to get called up. to play second base, and he has more walks than strikeouts in his minor league career, which is cool. And he also can run, although he hasn't run quite well. Let's see, he has nine steals in 31 games this year. That's good. But a bit of an uneven track record of the minors. Anyway, Scott, if you're going to pick up Oscar Mercado for Cleveland or Nikki Lopez for Kansas City,

who would it be, or both or neither? A lot of options there. Yeah, I don't think either of these guys is like must-out across the board. certainly if you have a need at the positions where they're eligible, they're worth a flyer. Mercado, you know, everybody needs stolen bases, and that seems to be what he does best. I never expect guys who get called to the majors to run as much as they do in the minors, because that's just not a big part of the modern game. There's obviously not as much to lose by getting caught stealing in the minors as they're in the majors.

So that never seems to translate fully. But obviously, the Indians need to generate some offense. That's one way he's going to do it. I don't think he's a total slap hitter or anything. This isn't like Billy Hamilton. So it just depends. It just depends on if he takes to the majors right away. We've seen some prospects who have this year,

and we've seen some who haven't, such as Carter Caboom and Nate Lowe. But yeah, I don't think the ceiling is extraordinarily high for Mercado. And I don't think it is for Lopez either, though the fact that there should be playing time right away for both. Yeah, I mean, if you have a need, why not? By the way, by the way, sorry. Carter Keyboom sounds like a toddler's clothing retailer

that competes with Ashkosh, Bagash, and Jim Burry. Carter Key Boom. Yeah, I could see that. Go ahead, Chris, these guys. You know who's my only track record Oscar Mercado's looks pretty similar to? Is Greg Allen. Remember him? I do remember him.

I do. That's not to say, look, and that's not to say that he will struggle the way Greg Allen did. But one thing that we see quite a bit with guys coming up from the miners is especially this type of profile, like middling at best power relies more on a plus hit tool. Those guys can get exposed at the major league level when they start seeing better pitching that's a little harder to make content. on when they rely so much on contact. I'm adding him where I can because of the stolen base potential.

But yeah, there's definitely some risk in going out and spending a bunch of fab on him. So are both of these guys only add them if you need steals? Is that basically how we'd put it? I'm not really counting on... I mean,

I guess maybe since it's the Royals and they are obviously one of the most aggressive teams, I think the personnel has something to do with that. But I don't I don't look at what Nikki Lopez did in the miners and think, oh, this is a guy who's going to be a big steel source once he gets to the majors. So no, I'm not I'm not even really counting on that from him. I think Mercado is the better bet if you're specifically looking for steals. I think Lopez might be the better hitter among the two. I think especially what he's done since getting to the PCL, only 34 strikeouts and 88 games.

you know, he could be a really solid source of average. And, you know, he has started to develop a bit more pop. Maybe that's a product of playing in the PCL. But, you know, I think he's a more interesting hitting prospect. And I would guess since they're planning on moving Whitmerfield to the outfield full time, that Nikki Lopez is going to get a chance to stick for sure. 20 walks to five strikeouts at AAA this year for Nicky Lopez. Yeah.

Yeah. That's really, that's kind of what, um, Luis Arias used to be before he kind of tried to add more power and his strikeout spike So he hit a home run last night

What was that? Louis Louis Sirius hit a home run last night So He's he's doing that But at the expense of what made him good In the first place Why does Heath Cummings own Nicky Lopez

In the In our Roto League Wow Like he didn't pick him up He didn't pick him up last night He owned Nicky Lopez He's tapped into the royals, man

He knows what's going on I guess what's coming I can't even find the transaction Like when did this happen Nicky Lopez Very very interesting There Heath Okay

So those are your prospects for today Also speaking of good plate discipline Nike Nikki Lopez Can I speak We've got to talk about Tommy Lestella Is he a legit breakout? We might disagree on this one

I'm just so interested to see when Nikki Lopez was picked up and going through. Oh, there he is. I missed it. Nikki, going through the transactions. It was on May 5th. He picked him up. And he dropped Julio Arias. Julioius.

Nobody cares. So back to the notes. Turyometer Tuesday. Aranola has a 486 ERA. 20 walks, 48th strikeouts, and 46 in a third. Now, its previous three starts are pretty darn good. 17 and 2 thirds, three earn runs. But he did give up.

17 hits in those 17 and 2 thirds, and he faced Miami, Detroit, and St. Louis was on the road. So, Nola, it wasn't like he dominated any of those starts, like six innings each time right around there. And he gives up three runs and three innings, obviously not having a great year,

uncharacteristically wild, Turyometer since it's Tuesday, zero to 10 on Aaronola, Chris Turyometer Towers. It's, I want to say like a one. because there's nothing, there doesn't seem to be anything physically wrong. Like he's throwing as hard as he has in recent years.

You know, his pitch mix hasn't changed. There's not really any obvious sign, except that his swinging strike rate has been cut from 12.4% to 8.2%, which takes him from solidly above average to solidly below average. 8.2% would be, I would guess, in the bottom 25th percentile for starting pitchers. So he's just not pitching well, but I would still take this as a by low opportunity because I believe in the talent

and I don't believe that he's hurt. Okay. Scott, what about you, Wuriometer, on Nola? I mean, the takeaways is the same for me, but I'm going to put it, I'm going to put it more like a four just because I think there's a realistic concern that he just doesn't get his command back this year for whatever reason.

I mean, we've seen good pitchers have bad years like that. I don't know. I wouldn't say all the time, but it does happen from time to time. And so you would have to make sure you're buying low. I certainly wouldn't sell low on him because pitching, particularly high-end pitching, is so hard to find. And there doesn't seem to be anything physically wrong with him, like Chris is saying. I mean, I don't think this is, like, worrisome as far as the rest of Nola's career goes.

We just may look back on it as off year because for whatever reason, he wasn't commanding his pitches as well. And it made it so he wasn't missing bats as well. And obviously, a lot of walks. So, you know, I'd go for it. But I don't disagree with the final assessment. Would you rather have Aaron Nola or Hyun Jind Riu? I'd rather have Nola. Yeah, I think I still would too.

No, my instant reaction was to say Jhund Riu. But that's like Nola's fallen to about. that point, nearly going to drop out of the top 20. Do we have any concerns about Shane Bieber? Four home runs yesterday. He's got a 381 ERA, but a 109 whip. Great ratios, 13 walks of 54 strikeouts and 49 and 2 thirds. Six of his eight starts have been quality starts,

but he did struggle yesterday at the White Sox. Now, I feel like Chris might have some concerns here, so Chris Terriometer Tuesday for Shane Bieber. Yeah, I don't know how, like concerned I am because I didn't quite buy the Shane Bieber is already an ace thing. I think he might just have a lot of Ricky Nalasco in him. And you know, when you look at like the peripherals really high, really solid strikeout rate, good control, ground ball percentage is improving after he started out the season, you know, below 30% through his first five starts,

I believe. I just, I think his pitch mix might be too predictable. You know, when you look at against right-handers, 47% fastball usage, 40% slider usage in all counts. And you look through first pitch

when he's ahead, when he's behind, when the count is even, when he has two strikes, he uses his pitches in the same exact way against right-handers. And then I just, I wonder if he just,

he doesn't, He needs to tweak some things still. And I'm not sure when he gets there or whether he can sustain. Did you give us a number? Did you give us a number? Six. Oh, that's a very high number. It's a very high number for a guy who's been very good this year.

Scott, how about you on Bieber? I was thinking three, which is lower than I said for Nola, but obviously expectations were lower for Bieber to begin with. Yeah, he's still struggling against left-handers, at least relative to right-handers. after a lot of talk about this change-up was going to revolutionize him this spring. He really hasn't thrown it that much. And he could use it to help close that gap in the splits.

But, yeah, I mean, there does still seem to be a lot of upside. Obviously, he's still close to must-start, I would say. I'll go three. All right. We're going to take a quick break here on fantasy baseball today. When we come back, who are the legit breakouts of 2019? One of them had a terrible start on Monday night. We'll talk about it.

right after this. Legit breakouts of 2019. I'm going to start with Chris Towers. I know you had three that you really want. Yeah, I'm starting with you a lot today. I missed you, Chris. I missed you too, Adam. And I have a TV show recommendation

that I'm going to give you in about 10 minutes or so. So, you know, pins and needles. You had three that you wanted to talk about. Who are they? Josh Bell leads the way for me. He was someone who I liked as a breakout candidate coming into the season. I liked as a breakout candidate coming into the season. like as a breakout going into last season as well.

And we started to see that breakout in the second half, and he's just carried that over. And when you look under the hood, it all looks completely legitimate. His expected batting average 311, expected Wobah is actually only 0.006 points higher than his actual, yeah, his actual Wobah.

So there's not really much of a gap there. He's hitting the crap out of the ball, 95.1 mile per hour average exit velocity. that's Joey Gallo territory. So yeah, he is someone who, you know, long had that kind of, we think he'll grow into power prospect profile, and he's certainly growing into it.

And this was, it seems like less of a fluke because he has spent the last year and a half or so talking about trying to improve his swing path to create more power. Okay, yeah, and he's hitting well. Josh Bell also hitting well on. at home this year, which had been sort of holding him back. He is the number three first baseman in points leagues number two

in Roto. We're not going to rank him that high, but Chris is buying the breakout with Josh Bell. He's also buying it with Caleb Smith, the only stallion that exists Caleb Smith. I mean, look, they still got some stallions in the stable

to call on. But yeah, Caleb Smith has been not just the Marlins' best pitcher. He's been one of the best pitchers the National League so far this season. And there's definitely some regression coming. He has a 211 ERA compared to a 285 fit, but 285 would still be really good. And in terms of the talent indicators that we typically look at, he has been one of the best

pitchers in baseball so far. And, you know, I think he has the best swinging strike rate among qualifiers. He has a 16.7 swinging strike rate, which is... Or maybe Garrett Coles is better, but yeah, he's way up there at the top. And you see, like, he has a really good swing and miss fastball. He gets a lot of rise on it, even though he doesn't throw it that hard. But this year, he's grown more comfortable throwing his slider and his change-up. Fastball percentage usage is down about 11.5%.

And that's going to help you get more swinging strikes, even if you have a really good swing and miss fastball. There's a lot. like here. I don't think he's going to stay at this level, but I think well above average pitcher. And you knew, if anybody knew that what his swinging strike rate was, you knew it was going to be Scott White. Also, just wanted to play this stupid song. This, somebody's walk-up music was Old Town Road when I went to the Yankees. I think Alex Bregman has used it. I think a lot of people are using it. I mean, it's a great song. Oh, geez. Wow, it's just terrible. Oh, it's terrible. So I just want to see one thing real quick. You said like what was it 16.7% swinging strike rate?

Yeah, there is one thing to keep in mind with Caleb Smith is that he, the Marlins have talked about. He's probably going to be on an innings limit this season. I think he only threw around 87 last year and it was like 120 the year before. So I would guess we don't see more than about 150, 160 innings out of Caleb Smith. So I believe the breakout is legitimate. I believe he'll be able to have no, average pitcher moving forward, but this might be a good time to try to trade him also. Okay, I just wanted to say Griffin Canning has a higher swinging strike rate than Caleb Smith, 17.8%. Yeah, but he doesn't qualify.

I know, I know, I know, but you missed it from yesterday. I was saying if he did qualify, he'd probably be among the leaders. Well, you know who has the highest of all qualifiers or not is Blake Snell, who's like way ahead of everybody else. All right. And finally, Chris, Chris, Cattel Marte. Chris, I need you to go faster here so we don't have to rush Scott because Scott has like 15 legitimate breakouts and you only had three.

Oh, we don't need to get to. Maybe Scott doesn't have to do all of them. Why do I have to rush? Cotel Martana is another guy like Josh Bell who talked about changing his swing last season. We saw some results from that. He became a bit better of a power threat that last year and he's continued to grow there.

We're seeing a decent average because he makes pretty good contact. He sacrificed a little content for that power. But overall, I think it's been a plus for him. And what he's doing right now, based on the bad at ball data, does not look like it's unsustainable. He should be able to keep this up. We've been waiting for Catelle Marte to become a useful fantasy option. I think we're seeing that he could potentially be a 25 home or 15 steel guy who doesn't kill you anywhere else. And that's really valuable. Yeah, Marte is interesting because his fantasy points by week. And I would say like,

This day and age, if you're not scoring 20 fantasy points in a week, it's a bit of a... Not say you have to do that every week, but I'd like to see 20. 42 and week one. Now, that was the 10-day week. Then 9, then 8, then 31, then 34, then 10. So he's been either awesome, Catal Marte, or had a terrible week. But sometimes it's just the way it goes. And he's made a lot of improvements against Rite's.

Always good against lefties, but been a lot better against Ritees this year. Still not great, but hitting for Pop. against Ritees. All right, so Scott, after Chris gave us Josh Bell, Caleb Smith could tell Marte. First of all, do you disagree with any of those as legit breakouts? No. I actually spent the past couple days writing a column about 12 pitchers,

and then what about 12 hitters who basically weren't, people weren't that interested in them in draft day, and they've performed like studs so far and just rating the legitimacy of all of them. And the highest rating on my legitimacy scale was confident, as opposed to hopeful, skeptical, or doubtful. And there were four confidence between those two columns. Two of them were Josh Bell and Caleb Smith. The other two are the first two I'm going to talk about here.

All right, let's do it. Guy coming off his worst start of the year. Matt Boyd, four innings, three runs, two homers allowed against Houston. But overall, great numbers, 13 walks, 65 strikeouts, and 54 in a third. and if you don't think you're about to hear about Map Boyd's swinging strike rate, then you don't know fantasy baseball today. I actually wasn't going to say any.

I mean, it's up, it's way up. But I think that kind of goes without saying. Yeah, he's kind of done the same trick Patrick Corbyn did last year where Slider was his best pitch, and he's really emphasized it more than ever before in a way that's made him much harder to hit, that's given him a lot more strikeout potential. I don't worry about yesterday's start because he had gone eight for eight in terms of delivering

good starts. That was obviously something that had to end eventually. And if there was one area where it seemed clear he was over performing, it was in home run prevention, he had had good home run luck so far. It's why his FIP was actually much lower than his ERA for as good as his ERA was. His FIP was in like the 220 range prior to yesterday. So that's fine. He gave him three home runs and four innings, or two home runs in four innings, I should say.

And it was his worst start. But yeah, he's definitely in a good place right now and somebody you can count on rest of season. All right, let's talk about Jorge Polanco. We actually did talk about Jorge Polanco Sunday on CBS Sports HQ, but he's a legit breakout for you. And I'm going to look up where he ranks at shortstop. But Polanco's having a great season. I think he homered yesterday. Mm-hmm.

Yeah. He did. So don't have to defend his bad game, like with Boyd. But yeah, Jorge Polanco was a guy who already excelled. He had like a high bad bit profile, really high line drive rate, and it had been consistent year after year. The thing he's done differently this year, flyball revolution, he's hitting more fly balls, and he's doing it at age 25 where, you know, it makes sense for there to be some power growth anyway. And like it's kind of been the perfect storm of, okay, he's elevating the ball a lot more giving him more power potential, but it hasn't, it hasn't limited his line drive potential.

It's basically just come out of the ground ball rate. He's not hitting any ground balls anymore, which is a good profile to have in 2019 with the ball composition being what it is and power numbers being what they are. So I look at what he's doing and he has he has like a 345 Babbitt. and okay, I guess he's performing over his head, except the PAPF was even higher last year because that's just kind of part of the profile. That's kind of part of the package for him. He's striking out less than ever.

There's not really anything he's doing that looks like a red flag to me. He's just excelling in every way. He's just doing all the things you want to see a hitter do. And obviously it's leading to huge numbers. Jorge Polanco. Sorry, he's seventh and points, ninth in Roto. My bad, Chris.

Go ahead. Yeah, the only question for me is just, is this a good month? Because you're right, the underlying numbers mostly back it up. But he's also gone from someone who averaged about 84 miles per hour with his average X velocity the last couple of seasons to 88.2. That's still below average. But like Scott said, given the fact that he hits so many line drives, that can play up because an average X velocity can play up if you hit the ball. ideally it's just he was one of the weakest hitters in baseball the last couple of years like 25 28% hard contact or hard hit percentage 2.6% barrel rate two years ago and now he looks like a

pretty average raw power guy and so it's just a question of whether he can sustain being an average exit velocity guy or if this was just a you know know, a good month and, you know, opposing pitchers will, we'll figure him out. That's, that's the big thing for me. So this is Jorge Polanco. Would you rather have Polanco or Citelle-Marté? Probably Polanco. Yep, I'd say Polanco. Would you rather have Polanco or Tim Anderson? Anderson. Oh, oh, really? I was, I was going to say Polanco and I didn't think it was particularly close. I thought Marte was closer. Palanco has zero steals. Anderson was like a top 90 player last season, right?

In Roto? In Roto, probably. In Roto. Yeah. I mean, he's in the long run, I think Tim Anderson's going to be waiver fodder in a points league. But Roto, I mean, obviously, because he runs some and so a few players do, he's always going to have some value in that format. It's just, is he going to be an impact player? I, you know, I think he's had a very lucky start to the season.

won't be that all season. It's amazing that Jorge Polanco has a 620 slugging percentage. As I'm looking at it right now, the only shortstop eligible player, a qualifying player that has a higher slugging percentage is Javier Baez at 627. So, I mean, that is an outrageous number for Polanco, and yet he's only 7th in points and 9th in Roto because he has zero steals. And he should be like a 15 steel guy based on the last two seasons of his career. So maybe if he stops hitting so many freaking home runs and doubles,

he'll get the first base more often and he'll steal. But it's weird. All right. So I'm going to read the rest of the list that Scott gave me of legit breakout. They're not as legit as Boyd and Polanco. But there's things that Scott really likes. Domingo Armand, Hunter Dozier, Yandi Diaz, Christian Walker, Frankie Montas, Mike Minor, and Luke, we...

I should have sung it. Domingo Raman, Hunter Dozier, Yandi Diaz, Christian Walker, Frankie Montas, Mike Minor, and Luke Weaver. Chris, any disagreement here? I'm trying, yeah, Christian Walker has still continued to be pretty good. The power has kind of not been there the last couple of weeks, but that's sort of nitpicking. So, yeah, I think there's definitely some legitimacy to most. of these guys. I, you know, I pointed out last week that Yandi Diaz, his profile actually didn't look as good as I think we had thought it would. And then he went out and hit two more home runs,

I believe, on Sunday, Saturday. That made me look bad. He hit more home runs Saturday than he had in 299 Major League played appearances coming into the year. And his, you know, and the thing for me was we talked a lot about the rays digging into the numbers and getting the best performance out of him, you know, increasing his launch angle and all that hasn't happened. So that makes me still a little bit skeptical, although the, you know, he does hit the ball incredibly hard. So, you know, I'm definitely not saying it's fake. And then, you said last time that's, so that's Andy Diaz. The last time Mike Minor pitched, you said you thought he might be turning into a pumpkin. Yeah, yeah.

I think, like, Mike Myers is another guy that there's just a long track record of him being, you know, not that good. Like, we were excited about him coming out into last season. He was useful, but he wasn't particularly great. And I think there's a better chance of him becoming that again, like a high three ZRA guy than what he's been. And so I think, you know, he should be owned for sure. But it wouldn't shock me if we weren't looking at him as a must start guy in three weeks. Is a high three's ERA. Like, if he is a high three's ERA pitcher, and I'm not saying he's not,

but if he is a high three's ERA pitcher who gets to go seven innings with bare amount consistency because he's a strike thrower, and he strikes out nearly a batter per inning, which is a swinging strike rate is way up this year. He seems to have optimized his arsenal in a way that gets more of that. Like, that's basically Cole Hamels, right? I mean, that's kind of what I'm pulling. hoping for for Mike Minor is a Cole Hamill's like outcome, which would still be basically must

start. Right, but that's not what he was last year. No, I think he's better than last year. I think it all hinges on that. I think if he's a mid-3 ZRA guy, yeah, he could go deep into games pretty regularly. But, you know, last year he averaged a little better than five innings per start, maybe five and a third. And so it's going to depend on the outcomes, you know, that they might be willing to let him throw 105 pitches every start, or 100 pitches every start, but if he can't continue pitching efficiently, and that hasn't been the case for most of his career,

pitching this effectively, yeah, I think there's a chance that we're probably looking at him more as a match-ups guy in a couple of weeks. Okay, Mike Miner is the fellow we're talking about. I got three names for you. Tell me if you think they're having legitimate breakouts. Omar Narvaez is a top three catcher in fantasy. Yeah. Yeah, he's somebody I liked. He started to gain traction as a sleeper, I think, across the industry as opening day approached when it was clear he was going to get a lot of playing time. So I didn't write about him. But yeah, he's doing, he's living up to our best hopes for him, I think.

And he's hitting fly balls. And that's the thing that he's got seven home runs already. This is a big time ground ball hitter. Narvaez is putting the ball in the air, which is nice. And he's always going to have a high. I-O-B-P. In fact, off top my head, I think I would expect him to lead catchers in on-base percentage. Eduardo Escobar, number 11 shortstop in both points and Roto, batting 288, eight home runs. He was actually a top-12th shortstop. He was 11th, the point 12th in Roto last year, but he's been very good. Being the number 11 shortstop, it's a really good position, so that's not a bad thing at all.

Eduardo Escobar, does this feel like a legit breakout to you? It feels like a continuation of last year, honestly. he's been really hot the past few weeks so the home run pace is ahead of last year he had 23 last year and he may end up with a few more than that but yeah I think he's going to be useful he's not going to be a game changer

but he's somebody who probably needs to be widely owned right now okay and who's buying Tommy Lestella another home run yesterday he has 12 extra base hits 10 of them are home runs and a 27.8% home run to fly ball rate which is high, but also a career high, 42.1% hard contact rate. Tommy Lestella, 54% owned. By the way, 12 walks, 8 strikeouts. Chris, you get the first word. You buying the breakout with Tommy Lestella.

What does a breakout for Tommy Lestella mean? Like, does it mean he belongs on a major league roster for the full season? A fantasy, how about a fantasy roster for the full season? No, I don't buy that at all. I buy that he may have improved from where he had been, but where he had been was you know a total afterthought and you know you look at his expected Wobah and it's actually a little lower

than it was last season so no I don't I don't think so so the last time we talked about Lestella we were on you know I was more optimistic than Chris I was more excited than Chris

but I'm not sure I really explained my feelings well, so I'm going to try a little better today. Oh, okay. I feel like we need some heartfelt music behind this, but okay, go ahead. I don't have it. Yeah. So obviously, the power he's shown

is ridiculous compared to his previous standards. I mean, 10 home runs. He has hit more home runs just in his two homer games this year than he had the previous, or as many as the previous two years combined. So that kind of shows

how out of character it is. But two things Tommy Listle had always excelled at is getting on base at a high rate and making consistent contact. I hadn't disliked him as a player. I thought it would be interesting if he ever got more playing time. And if anything, this power surge here early this season is giving him opportunities he hasn't had before. If it's enough to make him a full-time player, I think the potential could be something like DJ LaMay, you are maybe even a little better

because the power, I mean, it's not going, it's not going to, he's not going to sustain this pace, but he is he is hitting more fly balls in a environment that rewards that more than ever,

more this year than the past few years when we saw a big jump. So like I don't think he's going to be a zero in that going forward, even if his pace, it obviously has to slow down. I mean, one interesting number. Can we please wrap out to Stella?

Go ahead. Wrap it up. Really? You don't want to talk about Tommy Listella? I mean, I do, but we're more than halfway through the show and we've gotten through like 10% of the notes. So I don't know. I guess we just did talk about Toppa Lestella. My one rebuttal would be if Tommy Lestella's home run pace slows down and it probably should,

uh, 28% home run to fly ball rate, I would bet it's a third of that moving forward, which means he probably. should have three or four home runs right now. And he doesn't run at all. He has four career stolen bases in the majors. He never strikes out. His babbip right now, or at least heading into yesterday, his babbip for as much success as he's had this year was below 200.

And that's with a good line bribe. Sure, but again, if he's a, if he's a, like, Joey Wendell's 2018 season without the steals. Is that what we're looking at? Because DJ Lemae used to run. And I think he'll get on base more than that. Right, but what, I mean, but to what end? Okay.

You know, like, that's my question. Ready, ready to move on. Thank you for that time of the stella discussion. It was interesting. I just, there's so much more to get to. We haven't gotten any of the news and notes. We haven't gotten to many of the company names or team name Tuesday or what's going on in the bullpen.

Where the hell is Hector Neris? He's pitched once in the last 10 days. All right, I talked about that. Davis double dong, Yoam Moncada double don't, then I want to read a lot of your emails at Fantasy Baseball.com. Let's take one more quick break here on Fantasy Baseball today, get you caught up on what you may have missed on Monday right after this. News and notes.

Miguel And Duhar back on the I-L with a torn labrum in his shoulder. And it's certainly possible that And DuHar is going to need surgery. So let's get your thoughts. Any interest in Tommy Lus-Stea? Gio-U-Rshella. Not tommy Lestella. I don't have much interest. I just,

there's a pretty long trackard of him not being a very good hitter in the minors. I'm not sure why he's good now. It's all singles too. So, yeah. Yeah, like I just, this seems like a guy who's had a nice run. It's a great story. He's had a lot of good luck.

And I don't think it's going to keep up. It is a good story. Go Yankees. Nelson Cruz may not. have to go on the IL for his wrist injury. Probably won't. That's good news. Eloy Jimenez is going to begin a rehab assignment today. Could be back very soon. Carlos Rodon is going to have Tommy John surgery. David Robertson shut down for three weeks due to an elbow injury. Get to the bullpen in just a moment. Dustin Bedroia had a setback that can't be

bad news for Michael Chavis. Gary Sanchez and Glaborres were both in the Yankees lineup yesterday, but they got rained out. Dee Gordon pinch ran and he stole the base. Ryan Braun pinch hit. Kyle Seeger is going to begin a rehab assignment today. He's not eligible to come off the IL until May 25th. Jamison Tyone is on the 60-day I-L now, so it's not going to be four weeks. It's not going to be six weeks. 60-day I-L for James and Tyone. Williams A Studio started at third base.

Obviously, Miguel Seno is coming back soon. We'll see what happens there. New TV show to recommend for Chris Towers. I hope you are watching what we do in the shadows. I have no idea. I've never heard of it. It's really funny. It's like a spooky vampire show on a,

FX. Oh, that's... No, it's half hour. This is the Taika Waititi show, isn't it? Is that the guy from that show? What's the show? So, a Ragnarok. Oh, I don't know.

I think he... I think this is a... I didn't see it. Yeah, this is an adaptation of, like, his first movie, I think. Yeah, it was a movie, which I didn't know until last night, but it's... I've watched the first two episodes. It's really funny. I think you'll like what we...

Yeah, no, I do with the show. I want to watch it. Okay. And today is a really... Guys, today is such important. important day for me. I really need you to root for me. There might not be a single day that decides the enjoyment I will get from sports over the next like 10 years more than today because tonight is the NBA draft lottery. And since the Knicks won the lottery when they won Patrick

Ewing in 85 or whatever it was, they have not moved up in the lottery once. They have either stayed where they should have been or gone down every single year. I need them to be. Because they changed it. They changed it from envelopes to ping pong. It's a lot harder to rig. But every year, they've been worse or the same. So tonight is a huge night for me. I need you to pray for me.

All right. In the bullpen. I will absolutely not be doing that. Hansel Robles got to save for the Angels, no surprise. Jeremy Jeffers pitched in the fifth inning. I don't really like it's time probably to move on from Jeremy Jeffers. That's my guess. He's throwing harder now.

He is. That was a problem when he first. came back, but the velocity's close to where it was last year again. So I'm not totally forgetting about it. All right, all right. But what about Pat Nyshek getting the save for the Phillies? Where is

our boy, Hector Nerris? He's pitched once in 10 days. What is this? You have to assume there's something going on. Maybe it doesn't rise to the level of an aisle stint, but like once in 10 days,

that's, you don't see that very often. That's the kind of thing where you're probably doing him a disservice if he's healthy to not throw him during that time. So I don't know anything about it, but it's hard to say, it's hard for me to believe that it would just be like they just haven't found a spot for him in that span. There was something going on about his delivery and maybe it being illegal whether or not his delivery was violating any rules. I'm reading an article about that from May 6th. So I don't know.

We'll try to investigate, but should we pick up Pat Nysheck? I mean, he might get like six or seven saves the rest of the season, but we know what this team is. Yeah. Well, honestly, it looked like, it looked like Hector Neros was going to get the bulk of the saves. So that's why I guess I get disappointed.

Yeah, no, he'd been really, he had been much more consistently called upon than I had ever thought Gabe Kapler possible of. So if there was, If they had reason to believe that he was going to get called for box or whatever because of what his delivery was looking like and they had to pull him aside and work on that, I don't know what that means. I don't know what any of it means, but he had been a surprising, surprisingly reliable source of saves here recently.

Neris had. Do you guys know how to pronounce this golfer's last name, Brooks K-O-E-P-K-A? Do you know who he is? I think it's Kepik? I don't think it's that at all. K-O-E-P-K-A. Kepka, Kepka, Kepka, Kepka? I don't know.

I feel like I've heard sporting people talk about Brooks Kepka before. I know he's very good. Okay, well, I'm about to do a golf read, and I don't know anything about golf. So here we go. Hey, golf fans, PGA Championship Week is here, and CBS Sports is giving you tons of ways to follow all the action at the second major championship of the year. You can watch the tournament live stream on Saturday and Sunday in the CBS Sports mobile app and on CBSSports.com, and it's all free. You don't have to pay for a subscription or have a cable package to watch, but we don't stop there.

We also have CBS Sports HQ, a streaming sports network that's on 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and brings you news, highlights, and in-depth analysis. Our experts will also give you insider info to help you set your fantasy lineups and place winning bets. We do it all without any yelling or fake debates. It's the perfect network for fans who want their sports coverage. delving into politics and other off-the-field topics. And guess what? It's free. During the PGA Championship, CBS Sports HQ, will have highlights of the action.

Our golf analyst, Kyle Porter, will provide analysis on-site from Bethpage Black throughout the week. Will Tiger win another major and pull out and pull even closer to the Golden Bears record? Will Brooks Kopeke? Just kidding. Kepko capture his second straight PGA championship title. Will Ricky Fowler finally win his first major? Follow all the action with CBS Sports.

Download the CBS Sports app on your phone, Roku, Amazon Fire TV, or Apple TV to start watching today. And again, in case you missed it, live streaming on CBSports.com and on the mobile app on Saturday and Sunday, and it's all free. All right, let me read the company names here. Let's see how you feel about them.

Garrett Cole, I love it. Austin Hedges, the best landscapers in the state of Texas. That one's better, I think. Yeah, that one's actually, I think that's better than Garrett Cole. Tyler Flowers, probably a real big. business in California, Florida, Missouri, or Minnesota? I guess I don't know why those states. It works.

It works. Yeah. Yeah. Derek Holland Cruise Lines. Mike Trout Fishing Expeditions. Yeah. Zach Wheeler, Tire, and Brakes. Kurt Suzuki Parts and Service.

Sure. Nico Goodrum Whiskey Distillery. Yeah, that one's, it wouldn't be whiskey. Goodrum and whiskey distillery. I read it. Okay. Yeah, that's less on the nose.

I kind of like it. You got to, I mean, you got to pick one, though. Like, there's no way they're going to make good rum and good whiskey. I know. Gerard Dyson repair services and Mike Leak repair services. What about Christopher Towers? Mike Leak. I don't know if the mics really work for me.

I don't know if the mics. The thing that makes Griffin canning so great is that you normally hear Griffin as a last name. Yeah. Like, you don't ever really think of it as a first name. name. I'm sure he's not the first guy ever with Griffin is the first name, but you don't normally hear it that way. So I think it works. Yeah, how about this one? Wilmer font and calligraphy. Jorge Soler panel installation. Yeah. There's apparently, obviously we know about Milton Bradley. There was a guy named Soup Campbell in the 40s. Coutveal. Yeah, he put that in there,

but Coco Crisp is not a company, Dave. It's a cereal. Coutveal was a brand. Was a guy in the 50s, Clinton's store in the 80s. We've got Hunterwood, archery manufacturer. Matt Barnes sells livestock pads. Oh, my gosh. Hunterwood is very good. Like, I had to think about it for a second. That's extraordinary.

That's probably the best one. How about Mike Wright, audio consultant? Mike Wright. Oh, yeah, that's very good as well. Mike Minor, children's audio consultant. Drew Smiley. Drew Smiley is the caricature artist. Okay.

Okay. Yeah, right? These are good. Yeah. Drew Smiley. Austin Meadows could be a golf course, horse track, or cemetery. Austin Meadows. Yeah, that works.

Skybolt, 24-hour locksmith, skybolt. Okay, this is a good one. Shed Long residential landscaping. That's not a good one. Okay. And Justice Sheffield attorney at law. Those are pretty good. Yeah, that's decent.

All right. Double Dongs from yesterday. Chris Davis. He's Chris Davis. Probably don't have much to say about him, except it's kind of weird. Chris Davis, his first 19 games, he was great. Same thing with Yoamon Kata,

his first 19 games, he was great. Then for Chris Davis, his next 18 games, he hit zero home runs. Yoamon Kata. his next 20 games, he hit one home run. Quite frankly, I was getting a little concerned about Yoan Moncada that he was going the way of like Michael Franco and Jason Hayward, guys who got off to good starts and were falling back into being kind of bad fantasy players.

I'm not saying I'm completely without those concerns. I think Moncada's slump, he hit two home runs yesterday, coincided with seeing a lot of lefties, and he's still bad against lefties. He's slugging 353 against lefties. So I do think you have to sort of look at that. wonder how good the breakout can be for Munkata when he's crushing righties but still struggling against the south paws.

Yeah, he should not be a switch hitter is my hot take. He just can't hit left-handed. It goes back to the miners. Like he's consistently been like... No, he can't hit right-hand. Two to 300 OPA. Yeah, he can't hit. No, he can't hit left.

He can't hit left-handed pitchers. He can't hit, yeah, right. So he can't hit from the right side of the play. My hot take is nobody should be a switch hitter, it's incredibly difficult to do and that's what we're seeing is you know like chipper jones could do it Lance Berkman could do it but there's a lot of guys who are

significantly worse and since his swing is so much better from the left side of the plate I'd rather deal with the the strikeout problems that would likely come given that he already strikes out a lot against lefties anyway and see if he can at least do some damage when he makes contact because he can't

hitting from the right side Yeah, but the data has shown that, like, if he could get his strikeout rate down from like a third of the time to closer to a quarter, like, the problem against lefties were always there, right? But the numbers were going to be great if he could do that. And that's exactly what he's done this year. So just because there was a little bit of a dry spell, like it's not like his number number is completely cratered or anything. They're still awfully good on the year. Right. He's a number four.

Moncada is the number four second baseman in points league's number two in Roto. So you still buy him as like a must-start guy going forward? Yeah, I do. Okay. All right, so let me read some emails and tweets, some good ones here, relevant players involved. The first one involves a struggling Bryce Harper and Yoamon Munkata, grade the trade from Jake. I was offered Glaibor Torres and Bryce Harper for Yoha Monkata and Michael Brantley. And let me tell you that, Bryce Harper is the number 24.

outfielder in points and number 41 in Roto. He is striking out 30.5% of the time. And by the way, he has a 301 Babbup and he's hitting 222. So it's an interesting trade here because you are seemingly upgrading from Brantley to Harper, but you are downgrading from Moncada to Glaver Torres, who has been the number 16 second base in thus far, not really hitting for a lot of power. So grade the trade, give up Moncada and Brantley, get Torres and Harper.

It's a B-minus. It's not as good as I would have assumed it was coming into the year, but it's still the trade I'd make. Yeah, I am a little bit concerned about Bryce Harper because his plate discipline numbers are all moving in the wrong direction. They have been for the last two years, and now it's starting to get into kind of dangerous territory. Okay, so maybe that's just something to keep an eye on here, but, I mean, does Harper, if you're drafting again today, is Harper a first round pick for you? No, I mean, I'm not sure he was, was he? he was right there at the borderline, I guess, of round one and two. But for me, he would be probably at the borderline of round two and three now.

Wow. Okay, would you rather have a returning? Well, he's not returning yet. I was going to say Giancarlo Stanton. You'd rather have Harper. Right? Yeah. Yeah.

Okay. All right, next the email is about Tim Anderson. We already talked about him. Next the email is from Dan in Massachusetts. Is this Brandon Dixon guy legit? it? Let's get some Brandon Dixon chatter going. He's on the Tigers. Yeah, he's on the Tigers.

So I have to notice what. So how long does it take to type in Brandon Dixon? I have noticed him. I looked into him over the weekend. I don't think he plays every day. No, there's no, I don't think there's anything here. Okay. No, he's not. A little bit. A little. If you want an obscure Tigers player who's been surprisingly productive, I go Ronnie Rodriguez over Brandon Dixon. Right. Yeah, because you're looking at 38% strong.

track rate and that's been consistently high throughout his minor league career. That's it. We're done. No, Brandon Dixon. From David Y in North Bergen, New Jersey. Dear Mesa, Konseco and Bautista, those are Jose. The email should have been subject line. No way, Jose. Is Jose Alvarado dropable in a standard 5-by-5 roto league? Jose Alvarado. So I don't think he's had a save since the first week of April.

and yet he's tied for the race lead in saves, which is kind of like that. That has become the clearest bullpen committee. Diego Castillo has the leg up over the other two with Emilio Paghan being the third because he throws right-handed. Castillo does. I'm to the point with those three where if you're not owning them mostly for the ratios, you probably shouldn't own them because saves are just not something you can count on from any of them. He is a terrific pitcher, though, so you can keep on. Avarado for the ratios, but I understand the frustration. From Aaron, Aaron wants to know how you guys approach the number one waiver spot.

When should you use it? Chris, what do you think? I think you should probably use it as early as possible. That's where you're going to get the most impact from it. If you hit on a guy like last season when Juan Soto got called up, If you hit on a guy who gets called up early and he plays the entire season, you're going to get a huge amount of value for that. Whereas if you wait until June, July, you're only going to get at best two or three months out of them. So that's what I would say.

I don't want to hold on to it for too long. You know, I don't know who you've passed up. But there have been some pretty impactful players on the waiver wire. So I would say you should use it as early as. as possible. Scott. It's not. Yeah, go ahead. I'm sorry. I'm trying to get through the rest. Doug wants to know if we should sit Christian Yellich in road games.

No. We had to get to this, really? Okay, next up. Don't sit him. When will Jose Ramirez figure it out? Why don't we say that for tomorrow? That deserves to be at the top of the show. Email here, I don't have a name, but I need an outfielder. Brandon Lau, Fran Mill Reyes, or Jeff McNeil?

I would go for Rand Mill Reyes. Yes. We had to get to this. I like that was good. Carl wants you to grade his trade. Give up Soroka and Bogarts. Get Luis Castillo. I think I would do that, given the state of pitching.

But obviously you're giving up a pretty good pitcher too in Soroka. So I give it a, that looks like another B-minus to me. Quiet season so far from Bogart. He's, I think, the number 12 shortstop in fantasy. He's been fine. Good plate discipline. You know, probably a bylaw. You're probably going to get hot.

Like, if you work at the guy who picked up, like, Jorge Polanco, and you're having trouble deciding who to start a shortstop every week, you know, something like that. It makes it an even better trade. And from Brandon, or Brendan, Points League, grade the trade. Give up Lou Gevever, get Joey Votto. A, still. I won't go quite that high, but yeah, I'll go, I'll go a minus.

A month and a half ago, you drafted them 300 spots apart, you know? Yeah. I'm just kind of at the point with a pitcher where, like, somebody who I think is good at that position feels so much more valuable than anything else, except obviously, you know, the tip top of the hitters, like the droughts and the first round type hitters. I agree. I'm just a little less confident that the guys who. are good for a month and a half will be good in a month and a half as well. Okay. That's where it comes for me.

It's time for team name Tuesday. Rowdy with a chance of long balls. I like that one. Okay. Chris doesn't apparently because usually last time. You got to stick with the theme. You got to find something that rhymes with rain. Or no.

Sorry. I told, no. This is the move on. I totally missed it just. Uh, honey, nut. Chorinos. We've had that before. It's good.

It's good. Forget a Babbitt. I like this. Forget a Babbat. The all-time best. Zerbittam. Yeah, all right, Scott. Yeah, be quiet.

Forget a Babbat. Okay, moving on. That's good. C-Sheck by the C-shek. Pretty good. Next up. Glass now have. empty.

Yeah. Sadly. Pinder Eflin Paper Company. Okay. Yeah. Well, I'll be a Muncie's Kikl.

That's Is that? Yeah. I'll be a monkey's uncle. That's what three? Three different names in there? Alby's Muncie Kikle. Yeah.

That's too much of a stretch. That's, we jammed too many things in there usually messes it up. No, it's perfect. Save the Yates. Like save the date, save the Yate. Yeah, he's a closer.

I think you'd have to put Oprah as your avatar for this one. And every time I say you, it's you as a U Darvish, why you. You get a walk, you get a walk, you get a walk. Yeah. That's true. Okay, Markakis by the ocean. That's good. I'm not sure I get that one.

Cake by the ocean. Cake by the ocean. Markakis by the ocean. If it's a music reference. no wonder I don't get. Chris, you don't know cake by the ocean? No, I don't know cake by, should I? Yeah, I think it's, is that panic at the disco?

Who is that? Oh, no, then, okay. Cake by the ocean, which by the way, no, it's, who's D.NCE? No, I've never heard this one. Cake by the ocean is lovemaking by the ocean, by the way. Okay. What the hell? You've never heard cake by the ocean?

I've heard that song six thousand times. I may have heard. I may have heard. I'm going to take my host to the hotel. You've heard that song. I mean, that sounds great. Okay, here we go. Two more.

This one's weird. Adam, can you handle this? Scott, can you handle this? Chris, can you handle this? I don't think you can handle this. I don't think you're ready for this jelly. I do I have to do the whole thing. I don't think you're ready for this jelly.

My body too bargavicious for you, babe. That's very good. Thank you. Yeah, you're welcome. And finally, Hansel and Kettle. Yep, yep. Yeah, it's pretty good. We didn't talk about Brad Peacock or Yucci or Robbie Ray or Jose Barrios or

Freddy Peralta or Reynaldo Lopez or Tyler Skaggs. There were seven games last night. But we did talk about Brandon Dixon. So all is well and ends well. On the road. Six games, yeah, six games. Okay, we got to go. We're out of time.

I'm sorry. I guess we can talk about them tomorrow, although we probably won't. I apologize. Not my best show. Not my best show, but I did learn how to say that golfer's name. We'll talk to you on Wednesday. Bye, everyone.