Fantasy Baseball Today - 05/16: Lyles vs. Barria, Bullpens, Surprising Hitters (Fantasy Baseball Podcast)

Episode Date: May 16, 2018

We begin the show with a look at the STL rotation (3:05) as Alex Reyes and Jack Flaherty continue to intrigue Fantasy owners. Of course Jordan Lyles and Jaime Barria were among the best from Tuesday's games. Which of those two would we rather own (6:28)? ... Important MLB news (11:08), a Yu Darvish note (14:45), Tuesday's standouts (19:05) including Trevor Williams, Jose Berrios and Noah Syndergaard. And we play the "Yanny or Laurel" game that is sweeping the nation (27:06) ... "Can They Keep This Up?" A look at pleasant surprises like Ender Inciarte and Brandon Belt (28:08), Ryon Healy and Asdrubal Cabrera (31:10). We also grade your trades (37:15), discuss which closers could lose their jobs (45:05) and take a look at a couple of struggling Shortstops (51:55) ... Your emails at [e-mail] To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to the fantasy baseball today podcast from CBS Sports. One, one pitch, basketball, bold, and fast. Got a fantasy question? Email fantasy baseball at cbsi.com. Get ready to win your league. Well, fantasy! Now, here's Adam, Scott Heath and Chris. Happy Huff Day, everybody, big time show.

A lot of bullpen stuff to talk about. Jordan Lyles, hi, hi, Mabria, all that good stuff. And, of course, can you drop Robinson Canoe. Adam Azer, Scott White and Chris Towers on Fantasy Baseball today. Scott White, pretty exciting day yesterday. Are you excited for today? Stupid question. Go ahead.

I am excited for every day of baseball, Adam. But yes, some big developments in the world of baseball. Some of them, not so good. Some of them, very good. Yeah. Monday night was so boring. Tuesday night, not even close. Chris Towers.

How about those Celtics? They're doing... The Cavs are a horrible, horrible, horrible team, and I hate watching them, and I hope they get swept. Oh, that's pretty mean. All right then. Here are the things that I want to talk about today, see how much we get to.

Noah Cindergarde right now is doing well, but he is not a top 20 starting pitcher. We'll talk about it. There are two players owned in about. 50% of leagues that are nearing returns from injury. And if they hadn't been injured, they'd probably be close to universally owned. So we'll tell you who they are. One of them is Irvin Santana.

Hi, Mavaria and Jordan Liles were great. We will definitely talk about that. Arodis Viscayano may not get all the saves going forward. Mike Fultenevich has allowed more than two earn runs only once this season, yet he's been a frustrating starting pitcher. This is an awesome stat. Brandon Belt's slugging percentage versus lefties is the same. as his batting average versus righties.

Brandon Belts's slugging percentage versus lefties is the same as his batting average versus righties. How cool is that? I would guess that means he's not slugging lefties very well. 319 batting average versus righties. 319 slugging percentage against lefties, L.O.L. And Jose Burrios has a .96 whip and an ERA over four. That's weird.

And, of course, it is Wednesday, so that obviously means. Great the Trade Have I used this song yet? I think I may have. No, you have not. Okay, good. I'm starting to get to the point where I can't remember

which songs I've used. But school's out. How many schools are they? Will we eventually reach a breaking point here? There's plenty. You haven't used rock and roll high school by the remote? Hey, stop it.

This is not to be mentioned out there. Don't spoil things, Chris. I like being surprised. Well, something we didn't talk about yesterday that we should have, my B, Alex Reyes, 66% own. He struck out 12 in five innings in a scoreless rehab start.

Nowhere in runs. One hit, two walks, 12 strikeouts for Alex Reyes. And Jack Flaherty was very good yesterday. He did only have three strikeouts, but one run in five and two-thirds for Flaherty, who's 73% own. Alex Reyes is 66% own. Adam Wainwright is on the DL, and Carlos Martinez is going to miss at least one more turn. So, Scott, is Alex Reyes an absolute must-own right now? Let's forecast the St. Louis rotation.

Yeah, I think he's pretty close to must-own after this rehab start. And, I mean, obviously, before he needed Tommy John's surgery, he was doing some pretty incredible things in his first go-round-the-big leagues, too. So, like, incredible stuff. as good as pitching prospects get at the time he was promoted, life finds a way, you know? Like, I don't know exactly how he's going to fit in now, but he is definitely going to fit in. It may be in place of Flaherty, it may be in place of like Luke Weaver. Maybe somebody else gets hurt between now and then. They're not looking to activate him tomorrow after all.

So it's going to be fine. He can't be fine until the 28. Yeah, exactly. But that's approaching. That's two weeks. to potentially seeing Alex Reyes. Is Alex Reyes basically the Ronald Acuna of pitchers? No.

No, there can't be a Ronald O'Cunia of pitchers. Because there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, Adam. Well, not even taking it to that extreme. I said it less than sincerely. Pitching prospects are always going to be much less of a sure thing than hitting prospects. And you can't. You can't expect, even Alex Reyes, who is widely considered the most talented pitching prospect in the last couple of years. You just can't expect the same kind of impact.

Okay. Well, bottom line is get Alex Reyes on your team. We're hoping to see him in the rotation pretty soon. He's 66% owned. And Jack Flaherty is 73% owned, and he should be on your team as well. All right. That's great. Oh, here's an email from Matt.

I got offered Sean Maniah or Tyson Ross for Alex Reyes in a kid. Keeper League. Sean Minaya or Tyson Ross for Alex Reyes in a keeper league. Well, you keep seven. Would you do that? Okay. That's helpful to know. I, either one of them for, I think I trade Tyson Ross for him, yeah.

Yeah. Wait, you're, he has Alex. He has Alex, right? I didn't read it wrong. I didn't read it wrong. I said I got offered Mania or Tyson Ross for Alex Reyes. So I interpreted it wrong. I'll grade the trade.

Great Day, of course. Of course you did. This is all to a great start. Of course you did. I would, I... Would you take Shamanai firm, Chris? You're higher on to Mania than I am. I'm leaning yes, though.

Yeah, Reyes has more upside, but Shamanaya doesn't have the Tommy John surgery in his recent history and has succeeded at the Major League level. I think you would have to. All right, but it is a Keeper League. Keep that in mind. Yep.

All right. So you're taking Mani. anyway. All right, next segment, Liles Love It. Like Lyle Lovett. I get it. Thank you. Thank you. Here are some stats from Heath Cummings, who's writing waiver wire today, and of course, there's Jordan Lyle's in there. Liles is 12% owned. Average fastball velocity is a career high at 94.1. Throwing his curveball and change it more than he ever has.

Career high, 11.3% swinging strike rate. Also, please make Scott say the Rocky suck. That is from Heath. They have four competent hitters, two amazing hitters, four good hitters. Not yesterday. Black wouldn't even play yesterday, so. But I don't, like, I don't know that that's the reason Jordan Lyles was great. He points out some changes that I noticed for Lyles, too. And it reminds me a lot of the Collin McHugh breakthrough from a few years ago,

where he went from being pitched-to-contact sinker-baller guy, to suddenly unveiling this power arsenal, more of a four-seem fastball that he's throwing harder, change-up curveball. Like this, Jordan Liles was a pretty good prospect back of the day who just never lived up to it. And maybe these changes he's made, you know, two good starts in a row here.

Obviously, yesterday was amazing. Maybe they're allowing him to have this delayed sort of breakthrough. I'm not fully on board with him yet, but I definitely see the potential for him to be a contributor this year. He's like in my top 90 starting pitchers now. And the fact that he's really pitcher eligible, obviously, makes him a little bit more interesting in points leagues. You want to who it reminds me of?

Who? A little bit like Charlie Morton. He's all of a sudden tapped into a little bit more velocity. Now, the season-long average fastball velocity is, overstated a bit because of the time he spent in relief. I think he made 12 relief appearances, but it's that curveball that I think really we should be taking note of because he's throwing it about 25% of the time. And he's throwing it harder than he ever has before. Before it was about a 79 mile per hour curveball.

Now it's an 85 mile per hour curveball and his whiff rate has jumped from like 7,8%, which is really low even for a curveball to like 20%. which if he could sustain that would be an elite mark for a curveball. So there are some very interesting things going on with Jordan Lyles. And Jaime Berea. So Lyles yesterday goes seven and a third, flirted with a perfect game, and the Padre is still the only team that is never thrown in no-hitter. Seven and a third, one hit, no runs, one walk, ten strikeouts against Colorado, with 16 swinging strikes.

Berea, meanwhile, seven innings, four hits, one run, no walks, and seven strikeouts against Houston. Berea has a 213 ERA. Liles has a 253 ERA. Now Liles has only made two starts, right, for Liles so far? The rest have been relief appearances. And not the same for Berea. But both have done well against Colorado.

Berea did well at Colorado two starts ago. Who would you rather have Borea or Jordan Liles? I'll say Liles. I think there's more upside for Liles. Ria was not a big strikeout pitcher in the minors at all. Now he has gotten a lot of swinging strikes. last two starts and he's a good control pitcher. Stocks up for both, but I have a slight preference for Lyles now.

Are you putting Andrew Heaney ahead of these two, Lyles and Berea? Yeah. Are you willing to drop Raynaldo, Lopez, or Mike Minor for Lyles or Berea? Yes. Definitely Lopez. Mike Miner's still a little fresh, but yeah, things are going wrong for Mike Minor here. Getting off to a good start with the swinging strikes, those have disappeared on him, the last three outings. And so now what you have is a extreme fly ball pitcher who's not missing bats in a hitter-friendly environment.

Which is the same thing Renaldo Lopez is. Yeah. Would you rather have Harlan Garcia or Jordan Lyles? Liles. Liles. Oh, okay. Fernando Romero or Jordan Lyles? Romero.

Yeah. All right then, let's go through the big news, and then we'll talk more about yesterday's standout. Jose Brrios was so good yesterday. Jose Brrios had a start where you're watching that start. How does he ever struggle? It was that good, and that's what he does. I mean, he's either great or he's kind of crappy,

but we'll get to that. Robinson Cano is suspended 80 games for violating the substance abuse policy, and D. Gordon may be moving to second base overall, after all. Scott is Robinson Canoe dropable? He'll be out for 80 games. It depends how shallow the league is, but I would say any league where, like I think about 300 players rostered

is the division between a shallow league and not. So I'm going to say any league where there's fewer than 300 players rostered. Yeah, it's probably not worth the weight. Second base is a deep position, and you're going to need that roster spot in all likelihood. you know, over the next three months. Yeah. The length of time he's going to miss.

Let me see if I can time this right. Robinson Canoe is... Oh, out for summer. I didn't time it right at all. I did not time that right at all. Robinson Cano is out for summer. And I remember when Marte got suspended last year. He got dropped in some of my leagues,

and I just could not justify picking him up. Yeah. You have to put it on your radar as we get closer to his return date. But, you know, it was too much to have a guy that you couldn't put on your DL that was going to miss 80 games. Yeah. And I would say Marte was probably a more impactful player then than Canoe is now. Here's an email from Andrew who's looking for a Canoe replacement, a trade. It says, Dear Minnie, Dale Jr. and Big Bertha.

I don't know. I know who Dale Jr. is. Yeah, I do too. And Big Bertha is a lot of... No-so? Mouse? I think these might all be... I have no idea.

Okay, anyway, I'm thinking of trading James Paxton for a Canoe replacement. I have offers of netting me Javier Baez or Jonathan Scope in a Roto League. Would you trade Paxton for either Hobby Baez or Jonathan Scope? No. Nope. I think you're much more likely to find a second baseman who can fill in than a starting pitcher. Look at more like the Cesar Hernandez. Jan Harvis Salarte level.

You can probably get guys like that for much cheaper. And I don't think the contributions will be vastly different. AJ Apollo could miss four to eight weeks with a fractured thumb. The Yankees called up Clint Frazier, but we are not interested in adding Frazier, right? I just don't know where he's going to play. Yeah. Yeah, he didn't play. He wasn't in the lineup yesterday.

Probably just a short-term move, though he hasn't been hitting well at AAA since coming back. from, well, it sounds like a pretty harrowing concussion experience. I wonder if they trade him. I mean, if you want to sit on Clint Frazier in like a deeper league or something, he seems like trade bait to me, or maybe they just wait till next year, Gardner Hicks, who, I don't know. Adrian Beltrae is out two to three weeks with a hamstring injury. Adam Eaton expects to miss six weeks.

I hope you're right, Adam Eaton. I'm keeping you for now. You expect to miss six weeks. Rough day for the pirates yesterday, despite. an easy win over the White Sox. Francisco Sovelli left after being hit by a pitch on the forearm, and Starling Marte left with a side injury. And we do not know the severity, but we will wait and see.

Yueness Pespetus continues to be one of the most frustrating players in fantasy. He did not play yesterday. He could now go on the D.L. with a hip injury. I guess we should have seen that coming. Joey Lucasey's on the D.L. with hip tightness. You Darvish. I don't know that there's much change in his value. It was a good start for him.

Four innings, one run, five strikeouts. He did give up a home run. He did walk too. It's been an issue for him. He left with a cramp in his calf, and they were playing it safe. Darvish came back from the illness. Chris, anything to say about you, Darvish, after this, abbreviated start against the Braves.

I think this is a positive sign. Hooray. All right. I did notice, I did some research on this last week. His arm angle is definitely down, as Jim Bowden said. But it's most impacted his four-scene fastball. Like, it's flattened it out to the point that his batting on that pitch specifically is 100 points higher than last year the swinging strike rate way down.

So I think it's just a simple matter of him regaining the arm angle. And there was some suspicion over why the Cubs put him on the D.L. With an illness, it may have just been to work on that. Okay, and he did say he made some mechanical adjustments. So encouraging stuff for Darvish. Madison Bumgarner, he could be back in about a month. He's getting ready for a rehab assignment maybe next week. and I encourage everyone to go to CBSSports.com and read Matt Snyder's article on the humidor and the effect it might be having.

And it's too soon to tell. You know, Chris mentioned this obviously in a previous show. Too soon to tell what the real effects are. But you just look at like what Arizona's done on the road versus what they've done at home and hitting in that park. It seems like the humidor is having a noticeable effect. And it's a good read. And, you know, we have great coverage actually on CBSSports.com. You go to CBSports.com slash MLB.

There is a roundup every single day of what happened the night before and actually a preview of that night's games. And then that story just gets updated as everything, you know, unfolds. And it's great. So I think you will really enjoy that. Good baseball coverage on CBS Sports HQ, too, with Jim Bowden. Jim Bowden, yes. I just want to sneak in an opportunity to say, name correct. Yes. Now, CBS SportsHQ, actually, I've been getting a lot of emails, a lot of

tweets about it. People really like it, and I think you will too. And I also think you will like saving money. And that's what we're here to help you with. We're here to help you make money in your fantasy leagues and save money when you go to games or concerts or comedy like I've been doing with the Seek geek app, whether it's a Yankees game or a concert. Looking at that Foo Fighters concert this summer, going to be using Seat Geek to get there. And the most important thing, we're saving you money. Okay. First of all, you've never made a Seatkekekekech purchase. Use the code fantasy to get $20 off your first purchase. The code is fantasy.

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Chris Towers, why don't you lead it off? Who stood out to you? Sorry, I was distracted. Why doesn't someone else? Wait, is that? What were you distracted? by. Seekik? No, I, did you guys know

Muky Betts is a really good bowler? Oh, yeah. Oh, like perfect game. Perfect game, right? Yeah. Yeah. You're sorry. I was distracted. You know who else? Bould a perfect game, I'm pretty sure. Who? John Burkett. Remember him? Wait, Scott, can you see, we're all in different rooms today? Can you see Chris's hair? No, I haven't been able to...

Oh, God. It's hilarious, Chris. Please screenshot it and tweet it out, because like that is the funniest hair I've ever seen. You look like you look like Christopher Lloyd in Who Frame Roger Rabbit after he comes back as a tune. Yeah. You're not wrong. Remember me, Eddie? All right, Scott, why don't you start with the standouts? I'm good now.

Oh, fun flag. John Burkett has 32 perfect games to his credit. Oh, he's probably bold a lot more than mooky bets. He doesn't have a lot going on these days. You know who else was bold a perfect game? Who? Jerome Bettis. Really?

I have heard that before. I hadn't heard that. Scott White, we've stalled enough. Scott, no, you lose. Scott White, you're up. Standouts from yesterday. I am going to go with Trevor Williams. Sure.

It has been a standout pretty much all season. 272 ERA now. Strikeout rate not very high. But what is high is his soft contact rate. that's a continuation from last year. I'm always a little skeptical for that stat continuing. I think we're still in the early stages of understanding what that stat means, but it seems like a good thing, and it seems like a way a pitcher can overcome a low strikeout rate. I do think there's some home run correction in Trevor Williams' future. He is a fly ball pitcher, and hasn't allowed many of those.

He's not going to finish with the 272 ERA, but if it can be like a mid-to-high threes ERA and he's beating innings. He could be a useful back-end fantasy pitcher. All right, Trevor Williams, could easily be the, you know, even though he's been very good, could easily be the lowest pitcher on your roster, right? The lowest ranked pitcher on your roster. Yeah, I mean, in those leagues who are fewer than 300 players are rostered. Well, here's my question.

If he is the lowest ranked player on your roster, Trevor Williams pitcher, and Jordan Liles or Jaime Baria are out there, what do you do? I'd rather have one of those, too. I'd rather have Liles. Okay. Yeah. All right, Chris, you ready? Yes.

Who's a standout? I think we probably... I know the ERA is still 350, but I'm pretty close to getting rid of Rinaldo Lopez. I just... He has shown flashes, but over the last five starts, he has one start with more than two strikeouts.

Yeah. Yeah, I've been done with him. I agree. And, you know, early in the season, he was getting more swinging strikes. He was throwing the slider that he had never thrown before. But he just, you look around at everything that he does and he just doesn't really do anything well. None of his pitches are really swinging miss pitches. It's weird because you watch him pitch and he looks electric.

But I, yeah, I don't think it's going to happen. I want to maybe see what happens if they move into him into the bullpen. and he can just rear back and throw 99 every time and maybe hone one of his multiple breaking balls into an actual good pitch, but right now he just, he's a fastball only guy. Are we going to dissect every Jose Barrio start? Is he just going to be that pitcher where he gets new clues every time? This is why I was careful not to swing too far back the other way after,

when we were talking about him after his last start, the continuation of a four-star rough patch where the strikeouts were down and he was allowing a lot of home runs. Yeah, I mean, some pitchers, every pitcher goes through peaks and valleys during a season. For some pitchers, it's more extreme than others. I think we're kind of seeing that play out a little for Jack Flaherty, too. Between the majors, minors, and spring training, he's had some huge strikeout games. But then he's had ones like yesterday where he's just not missing many bats. and like that's that's okay i mean it it can be frustrating unless you just know to keep him in your

lineup and ride the wave and i think burrios has earned at least that this year i don't know that he's an ace as some people were suggesting early in the season but i do think he's more or less a must-star pitcher i guess my question is why don't we just take him at face value why are why are we so afraid to just Jose Brrios is telling us who he is. He has a 4.04 ERA over the last two seasons. He has a 4.03 ERA right now this season, 4.05. His FIP is a high threes.

That's probably what he is. Well, I think that I want him to be better than that. We're trying to project aces. And when you watch a start like last night, you see a guy who's unhittable. And his breaking pitchers are so good. When he's on, Jose Barrios is outstanding.

And his previous four starts, he gave up 18 earned runs in 19 and a third. So I think that's why, I mean, I'm not disagreeing with you necessarily. I'm just saying, we look at Jose Brrios, we see flashes, and we want more consistency out of it. So if he is more consistent, he can. Maybe one day he'll get there, but I don't. I'm not counting on it this year. He's a top 30 starting pitcher for me, which is good enough, you know? Maybe someday he'll move up from there.

Look at what... Look at what... I don't know. Charlie Morton's done this year. That's kind of an extreme example. Hopefully it won't take 12 years. Yeah. Yeah. Well, he just needs to get traded to the Astros, and then we'll be fine. Noah Cindergarde...

He needs to get traded to the Astros. Yeah. Noah Cindergarde's been interesting, guys. He's 23rd in points. He's 29th in Roto. He has a 314 ERA and 61 strikeouts and 51 and 2 thirds. But for Cinderguard, a 1-2-2 whip with a lot of hit per inning. Only one start of more than six innings.

No more than 103 pitches in any start. He does have a 3-43-babit, but he is a high-babbid guy. But Cindergarde's got a career-high soft-contact rate, a career-low hard contact rate. Everything looks great to say he's not really pitching that deep into games. Is there any story here with Noah Cindergarde? I'm a little... The inefficiency makes me uneasy. Not to the point that, like, you need to sell him or anything.

Like, but just is he going to live up to the top ten potential? I don't know. Like, and most more of his starts than not, he's gone sixth inning. So maybe it's even overstated. But he is lagging behind the other pitchers we think of aces in terms of, you know, fantasy point production. And that's even though he has three wins, which again is. Like, it's not a 15-win pace, but it's not ridiculously bad either. Yeah, now, a few weeks ago, we were saying similar things about Chris Sale.

Oh, maybe they're kind of limiting his innings to keep him fresh. And meanwhile, Chris Sale has gone seven or more innings in four of his last five starts and nine innings in his last start. Yeah, that seemed more deliberate, though. What do you mean? Well, I mean, you look at Noah's Undergarde's pinch counts, and I don't have Chris Sale. Pitch counts in front of me. I do.

I can help you out. What were his pitch counts like? Lower. 92, 93. His first four starts, Chris Sale did not throw more than 93 pitches. Cindergarde's thrown, I think the most he's thrown is 103 pitches. But that's the thing. Is Cindergarde ever going to throw 115?

Are they going to let him? You know, Chris Sayle has thrown 110 and 116 pitches in two of his last four start, five starts. I don't know that there's much here. I just thought it was kind of interesting. that Cindergarde's been very good, but right now he's not a top 20 starting pitcher. Yeah, I thought his pitch counts were higher than that, to be honest. So that he, looking back two years ago, obviously we can't look at last year because Cindergarde was out most of the year. But he exceeded 110 pitches, 1, 2, 3, 4 times, and was at 10 9 pitches twice more.

Yeah. Are you guys in on this Yanny versus Laurel thing? I heard Laurel. I heard Yanny. You heard Yanny? People out there, what do you hear? Laurel. Laurel.

When you play it, I still hear Laurel. Yeah, that's Yanny. That's Laurel, Chris. Oh, my God, Chris, what's wrong with you today? That's clearly Laurel. And I think it's something about your age and your hearing ability, and I don't know. It's the pitch, the frequency or something like that. People hear different things.

Well, there was somebody on Twitter, and I, you know, I'm not sure who it was. Chris retweeted it. But he kind of was changing the pitch on that. Yeah. Like had four different lengths to it with different pitches. And on the lower pitches, I heard Yanny. Oh, I didn't.

But on the standard pitch and the higher pitches, I heard Laurel. That's weird. Like, it was a distinct difference. Like, this guy's playing a trick on me. A different type of pitch count, to be sure. All right, let's look at some hot hitters. Can they keep this up? Ender Enciarte is the number 12 outfielder in points, number 8 in Roto.

He hit his fourth home run and he has 18 steals. This guy's usually around 20 steals. He already has 18. Ender in Ciarte. Brandon Belt is the number two first baseman in fantasy. 298 average, eight home runs, 24 walks, 40 strikeouts in 39 games. And as I mentioned, he's slugging 319 against lefties. His batting average is 319 against righties.

And Belt, as we saw yesterday on our Fun with FanGrav segment, he's among the leaders in hard contact rate and fly ball rate. So let's start there. Let's start with Ender Ensiarte and Brandon Belt. We'll also talk about Ryan Healy as Drewbo Cabrera and C.J. Cron. But can they keep this up? Scott, what do you think about NCRte and Belt? Can they continue to be, I'm not going to say top, whatever.

I'm just saying, can they continue to be great? Can they have great seasons? Well, we already knew Ender Encearte was a good hitter. And after a slow start there, he's beginning to come around. Not a lot of power, but makes so much contact in today's environment that he still basically must start in any format. And that was before he became elite base dealer, which he has the speed to be. I've said many times in the past that stealing bases is as much a decision as it is a matter of ability. We know he has the ability, and now the Braves are letting him to do this.

So, yeah, I'm buying that he can be a big-time base dealer, and I've moved him into my top 30 outfielders in both formats. I think he must start. Yeah, top 30, I mean, but is he top 20? Is Ender and C.R.T.R.T.T. Potentially. I'm not ready to move him ahead of, like, Mitch Hanigur, Andrew McCutcheon, Ronald Acuna. That's what it would take to get him in the top 20. Honestly, why not McCutcheon?

Who is, by the way, among the leaders in hard contact? rate, which is nice. Yeah, and he is getting on base a lot. I think you could justify that more to Roto League where obviously steals are a necessity than you couldn't appoints league. It would be a close call between those two in that format. Where are you on Brandon Belt? Because we have seen in the past, Brandon Belt has had good power years, but in

those years his batting average has been low. And he's had kind of bad power years, but in those years, his batting average has been good. We were wondering if he could combine the two. So far, he has. 298 batting average, eight home runs so far, and he's the number two second baseman, or first baseman, excuse me. I think he's pretty close to a must-star, too.

I've moved him up to 15th in my first base rankings, which I know first base is not off to a good start, but there's still a lot of capable hitters at that position. So the fact he's top 15, that might be the highest I've had him in, I don't know, half a decade. Okay. Would you rather have belt or Hosmer? I have Hosmer 12, so I'd rather have Hosmer. But I think there's some similarities there. Chris Towers.

Ryan Healy, over the last 28 days, is the number six first baseman in points leagues in number three in Roto. That's Ryan Healy. He's 80% own. And as Drew Bucreira, he's still a top 10 shortstop. You know, the numbers still look pretty good. Do you think both of them are season-long contributors in, not the shallowest of formats, but like a 12-team league? Healy and Cabrera? I think Ryan Healy is probably a starting caliber corner infielder.

And as Drewba Cabrera should probably be owned in all formats, if only because you're going to have a week where your second basement plays five games, or you're going to have a week where your shortstop plays six games before of them are against the Indians or something like that. And his, what, triple eligibility? Yeah. Everywhere on the infield except for first. That's valuable. He's a good hitter, and he has been for a long time. Like, it's not a surprise that his dribble Cabrera is, he's not a star, but he's capable. When you see Cabrera's numbers right now, batting 327 with six home runs isn't really that many.

Do you think there's an extended slump coming to get that batting average down to where, you know, we thought it might be in the two, I don't know, two 70s? Adam, you know the answer to that question. I don't know the answer to that question. You know the answer to that question. I do not believe that just because you've played above your head for a little while means you will play below your head for a while to balance out. I think is Drewbilt Cabrera is probably like a 280 hitter, and he will probably hit about 280 moving forward.

Didn't you learn your lesson last year with Mani Machado, Josh Donaldson? No. Would you rather have... Wait, wait, wait, wait, hold on. So you're selling Mani Machado right now, right? Depends what I could get for it. You have to. Depends what I, yeah, depends.

No, he's going to, no, you have to sell him for anything because he's going to be bad for a while. No, I didn't know. No, no, no, no. Obviously that inconsistent, sir. Absolutely not. If I could sell him for a top five player, sure? No. He has an extended slump coming.

He is due to slump. He has to. He might. Even you learn your lesson? Hey, he might have an extended slump. He's not going to hit 350, Chris. I don't know. He's not.

I promise. He's going to have to hit 250 to balance it out. I'm more. with Adam on this than Chris. Well, that's the other thing. Chris says, like, but Chris is taking it to an extreme to make his point, as he often does. Chris says season-long stats mean more.

But that's like, and then you're like, Adam, guys do this throughout the course of the season. You know, when we talk about this preseason, you know, and I say, oh, a guy had this, he was great for 45 games, whatever. You say, yeah, that's usually what happens. That's what I'm saying. There are, there are starts and stops, ups and downs. That's not what you're saying. You're saying it's a cause and effect.

You're saying he will be bad in the few. future to make up for the fact that he has been good so far. That is not how it works. That's oversimplify what I try to say. No, no, no. That's oversimplifying. I see it as it often plays out that way. Like, things tend to even out over the course of six months.

Right. And that's a way they even out. You know, like, not that it will happen, but. Yeah. Literally, I said about this people, Cabrera. No, I didn't. That's not literally what I just said. I did not say.

You did not say. You did not say. Do you know what the word literally? really means? Yes. You know that I literally did not just say that. Figuratively. Guys, can C.J. C.J. C.J. Cron is 10th in points, fifth in Roto.

He has never slugged higher than 4.67 in his season. Cron is currently slugging 5.03 with a 284 batting average, nine home runs and seven doubles. Only one week so far with 20 fantasy points, but still he has been good. Can C.J. Cron keep this up. Scott White. probably not though this is closer to who I thought he was when he was coming out of the miners for what it's worth

but he he would basically need to be a high-end power hitter with as bad as the on-base ability is for him to be a be somebody who sticks in your lineup in fantasy so I would bet against him going forward this was like he was in my top 10 sleeper hitters this week

this was favorable matchups for him but it's a short-term play. His best case scenario is probably like Will Myers without the steals. Okay. And that's just, that's pretty uninspiring. You know what is inspiring? This email that we got from Digsy. Digsy said, yesterday on the pod, Adam, you made a guarantee that we could take your money if we played on the draft app.

Well, you were right. I was lucky enough to snag a spot in the game you posted yesterday and ended up taking a dollar from you. All joking aside, yeah, of course. All joking aside, thanks for introducing me to the draft app. It is a great way to enjoy fantasy baseball while my dynasty team is in full rebuild mode. And that's kind of an interesting aspect of daily fantasy, right? Let's say you're not having a great year. Or maybe you're having a great year.

You just want to play more. You want a different team. You want a new team every single day. And you want to keep doing drafts? Well, that is where the draft app comes in. Download the draft app or go to draft.com. You just search draft in your app store. It'll be right there.

And for a limited time, you can get a lot of it. a free entry into a real money baseball draft when you make your first deposit. All you have to do is use the promo code FB Today on the draft app. Promocode is FB2 today or on draft. FB. Today. So yeah, you get a free entry or you can compete against me. Use that code and you'll automatically be following me. Big Cane 2. You get paid out the next day. Draft start at $1. They're quick. They're fun. They're easy. I love it. I came in third last night. I did the night slate. So it was the late game. So there weren't a lot of pitchers to choose from and I was stuck with Mike Stink and Minor. But, you know, getting better.

Third place is better out of five. Anyway, join that draft app or draft.com and use the code FB today. You will really love it, just like our emailer. Grade the Trade Part 1. I think it is time now. Let's get Alice Cooper on here. Dave is from Chicago. Grade the trade.

Gave the trade. Matt Carpenter. This is a Robinson Canoe replacement. Give up Tyson Ross, get Matt Carpenter. That is probably like a C-plus. Yeah, I think my Carpenter has significantly more upside. There are things wrong with his game, but I believe he can fix them. From Jake, grade the trade. Hey, Kevin, Draymond and Steph.

Trade Shaw Mania. Get Alex Bregman in an 18-Roto league. That's how you sell how I am Mania. All right, there we go. I like it. I give that a... An A-minus. A-minus.

Okay. Don't even need a grade from Chris. It's clearly an A-minus. Jake from West Bend, Wisconsin. Hey, Chip, Roger, and Michael. Give up... This is an interesting one. Give up Nick Marquakis, get Ryan Braun.

A-plus. No. No, it's not. I would rather have Marcaquist. No, you would not. I think Braun's about done, to be honest. I moved Markega's head of him in my rankings yesterday, so I give this a D plus.

We are going to look back at this Nick Markegas thing in August, and it's going to be like after a really bad night of drinking, and you're going to be like, oh, God, that was such an obvious mistake. Why did I do that? That's what this Nick Markegis thing is. If it's after a really bad night of drinking, it's only going to be you who's doing that. Yeah, yes. Team Kreef, Team Scam will be very lucid.

No, you guys are drunk on Nick Marquakis. No, I'm not. I mean, I only have them 42nd. It's more about Braun. Right, Braun's the other half of this. Yeah. I would do the trade, but I don't think it's an A-plus. Oh, I have Markega's 36 in points leagues, actually.

It may be different at Roto. So, wait, Scott, what was the grade you guys? gave? Hang on, you're about to hear some noise. Oh, no, I paused it in time. Okay. The grade I gave was D plus. D plus.

Oh, wow. Okay, very split. Forte third in Roto. I have Markekekekeke's 43rd in Roto, 36th, and points. And I have no idea of Chip, Roger, Michael. From Andy, 12-team category league. It says category points league. I don't know what that means.

I traded Ozzie Albies for Aaron Nola, but he picked up Whitmerfield on waivers first. and then he traded Albies for Nola. Grade the trade. At face value, I would give it a... Probably about a C. With contextual extra credit, I can elevate it to B minus. It is fine in a vacuum.

The problem is you should have gotten more for Ozzy Albies. Yeah, probably. Oh, Aaron Nola is pretty damn good, no? Well, yeah. I mean, I rank, to be clear, I rank Albi's ahead of Nola, but not by so much that I can really classify. Right, but Ozzy Albies, if you're trading Ozzy Albies after the start he's had, you're probably looking to trade him for more than what you have him. What about Aaron Nola after the star he's had? I think Aaron Lola's very good, but we have Aaron.

He's been a top five starting pitcher, right? Sure. But we have a longer track record of Aranola being, I just. think the perception, maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like the perception of Ozzie Albies is higher than it is fair or not. That I 100% agree with. Perception. And so when you're trading, perception is ultimately the most important thing. You should be taking advantage of Ozzy Albi. Like, I think it's probably fine. I think in the long run, they'll be similar. I would just imagine most fantasy players think Ozzy Albies is a lot more valuable right now. Okay. Ozzy who? Albies. All these. Yeah. All these.

Albies, there you go. David, I wanted to hit the buzzer, but you said it right. But you were saying Albies too, Adam. Damn, was I? Yeah. Yeah. By the way, Scott, you are an idiot for saying Aaron Noah is a top five pitcher. He's sixth.

Sixth points and actually a little bit lower than that. It's like Aethon Roto. All right, thank you guys for that round of grade the trade. We'll come back and do more. We have a lot of bullpen to talk about. I just want to say that I trust our analysts. You should trust them. I trust them.

I spent big on Max Kepler. He was on waivers. I spent $10 out of a $100 budget. I only have like $45 bucks left now. I added Max Coutler because I trust Scott White in a five outfielder league. How much did you bid on Kepler, Scott? Or did you not bid on him? I don't know that I added him in a league with bids.

Well, he got dropped two days ago, and you even commented on it. And I was like, crap, and now I have to outbid Scott. Oh, okay, so I can check. This is the Memorial Magazine League? Yes. All right, sorry. Sorry for stalling the podcast here. I also added Jesse Winker in a deeper Roto League because according to fun with Fangraphs, according to Heath, he could turn things around.

He had that 0% home run to fly ball ratio. So I trust our analysts. As any player with zero home runs would have. Max Kepler's not hitting right as well at all. He's slumping right now. It's the dangest thing. It is the dangest thing. And same with Javier Baez and lefties.

which we'll get to in a second. But here's an email, email of the day number one from Jay, Fantasy Baseball at CBSI.com. In a 12-team league, should we be looking to stash Irvin Santana in a DL slot now? Irvin Santana. I mean, if you have a free DL slot, yeah. If you had a DL spot, you should have had him stashed.

The issue is whether you should have stashed him regardless. I mean, here's the thing. A lot of guys who have come back from injury have struggled, these pitchers. So I don't know that Santana's just going to go back to being a good pitcher. Look at Samarja right now. Wow. Look at Alex Reyes right now.

Well, he hasn't done it against big league competition. That's a long. He hasn't. But I mean, I feel like you could find instances on both sides of that debate. And there's reason to wonder if anything Irvin Santana did last year is legitimate. But one thing we know he does legitimately is pitch deep into games. And that's such a rare skill in today's game that I think he's going to matter in all formats. Now, every 10 days or so, I come out with a DL stash rankings list on CBSSports.com.

And pretty much all season, Irvin Santana's been outside the top 20 of that group. So I could see instances in shallower leagues where maybe he's not worth stashing. But chances are in your league, somebody should be stashing him if you have at least two DL spots. Yeah, well, I'd rather stash Irvin Santana than Danny Salas are. Me too. And then email of the day number two is from Blake and Santa Barbara. Could you maybe do a segment where you quickly go through closers and have the guys rate their job security on, say, a scale of one to five? No commentary even needed, just a barometer on it.

I'm trying to think of some way to make it extra fun, but that's your job, I guess. Also, who do you think wins in a bare-knuckled brawl between Rick Moranis and Scott White? Rick Moranis is like 65 years old. Right. I think Scott can take it. I agree. I don't know. Unless Rick Moran is at the shorts.

All right. So then here we go from that email from Blake to the lose job as closer o meter. And we'll go zero to ten here. How likely are these guys to lose their job as closer on the lose job as closer o meter? This is really frustrating. Fernando Rodney. What is that? I knew you were going to start with him.

It was May, right? Or June. Yeah, I know it was June 1st. What did you bet? I'm going to have to eat some peeps on the air, which is really tough for me because they're the worst candy ever. That's gross, yeah. Oh, I like peeps. I don't understand the world's opinion of peeps.

And I don't, I think it's a recent phenomenon because obviously it's a very successful candy. Been around forever. Just because they look cute. Fernando Rodney, zero to ten on the lose job is close a room meter. I give that a... a six. He's perpetually a five. I'm surprised it's that high.

Last eight appearances, two hits, no runs. Yeah, well, 320, I think this is behind. His ERA's in the low of threes now. But the whip's still high, and, you know, home run tendencies still high. Five walks, four strikeouts over his last eight appearances. Yeah, I mean. Like, he's earned leash.

Oh, yeah. But it's not an infinite leash. Um, okay, how about these next three? and they're all, I think, trade candidates. Alex Colomé, Kelvin Herrera, Brad Hand. Colomé Herrera, Hand. Who's most likely to get traded? Herrera.

Yeah. But that being said, he's like a three. I would give Colomé 4.5 and hand a two. And that's basically only because there's a chance he's traded and becomes a setup, man. But they did just sign him to a long-term deal last year. So I think that's pretty remote. He's been awesome this year. There's no way that Colame Herrera or hand that one of them does not end up on the Red Sox.

The Red Sox will be stealing a closer from a team and making him a set-up man. They have to. Of course, this is me being kind of, you know, just fun. But like some of these closers are going to get traded. I don't know if those three, but it's going to happen. Hunter Strickland with Mark Malanson beginning a rehab assignment this weekend, potentially. Hunter Strickland, zero to ten on the lose job as closer o' meter. Seven?

Yeah, I was going to say seven as well. I hope he doesn't because I think he's better than Mark Malanson. Yeah. Shane Green, I guess we could throw him in the trade category. He's pitching four straight days, Shane Green. Zero to ten. Let's go seven there also. Five.

I think the issue is just the trades. Yeah, I think so. I don't think he's very good. He's the best they've got, right? Yeah, I think he's good enough. Joe Jimenez looks like they're closer of the future, but he hasn't been good enough to overtake him yet. And this one's the most interesting, Errodis Fis Fiscahino.

He's had a good year. I mean, 275 ERA, seven saves and nine chances. Last two appearances is a little bit rough, but apparently Dan Winkler, who's been incredible this year, and A.J. Minter, Winkler and Minter, have a chance to get some saves for the Braves. So where is Erotus Viscayano on the Lose Job as Closer O-Meter? Well, based on these recent Winkler comments,

I'm going to have to go seven. It's worth noting that Brian Snitker said something similar at the end of April about A.J. Mentor interfering with Oroa's Fis-Fis-Ga-Safatil, and that really hasn't happened. But Dan Winkler's been much better than either mentor or Erotis Fis-Gaiino this year. And I know some people are probably like, what do you mean, to ROTUS Vizs guy, you know, has an ERA below two.

Well, his FIP is 4.27. His FIP last year was 3.72. He is, so in those two years, he's done a good job of outperforming his FIP, but I don't think he has a long enough history of that for me to assume that's the norm. He walks a lot of guys, he gives up home runs. He'd be a fine setup, man, but I don't think he's really, he really profiles as a closer. And Winkler, at least judging for the performance this year, does.

All right. So I think Winkler at 7% Owens is someone that you might want to speculate on. Are there any other closers that you think could lose their jobs, Chris Towers? Well, there's a bunch of closers. There's a bunch of teams who don't currently have a closer. So we're watching to see, you know, I guess Baltimore and the Angels, specifically to see who can step up and take those jobs. I guess Darren O'Day will be the closer in Baltimore if he gets back.

Which could be in the next couple of days. And Zach Britton is getting close to rehab a site. by the way. This is the problem with the closer discussion is you don't just have to predict performance, which is hard enough, and as we show on this podcast every day. You also have to try to predict what someone else is going to do as far as their decision making. And so

like the angels are a really good team. Whoever becomes the closer there is going to get a lot of save. I don't know who it is. I will be honest. And I think Bud Norris should be on the Lose Jabba's Closer O meter as well. He is currently the Cardinals Closer. Where is Bud Nara? Zero to 10. Lose Jabba's Closer O meter?

I'll go six. All right. So it's a situation to monitor. See what we're going to end the show with here. Gene Seguera stole four bases yesterday. He's now the number six shortstopping points, number four in Roto. I think we'll talk about him at a later date. Just run through some notes.

real quick. Edwin Encarnacion sat with a back and neck issue. Joey Votto sat. Nick Castellanos returned and homered. Jorge Soler sat. Jorge Saler has a displaced rib. When I first read that, I was like, oh, boy, he's going to be out for a while. But apparently he could be back today.

He's day-to-day with a displaced rib. No big deal. A.L. only. Hunter Dozier could be Kansas City's primary first baseman while Lucas Duda is on the DL. Stephen Vote. Milwaukee catcher Stephen Vote out for the season due to shoulder surgery. Yankees nationals will resume tonight pending the weather. They are tied in the sixth inning. Bradley Zimmers on the DL. Raje Davis, he's only playing really against lefties, but he had a big game

yesterday. They don't have a very good outfield right now, the Indians. Miguel Cabrera is going to miss at least another week. Nelson Cruz will miss a game or two after being hit by a pitch on the foot. Matt Duffy left with hamstring tightness. Carlos Gomez left with groin tightness, making that raised lineup even worse. Danesby Swanson could be back soon. Mack Williamson could be going to rehab assignment this week. Yeah. Yeah, keep an eye on Yassio Pugge. He's 79% owned.

He's homered in two straight games. And Michael Conforto sat against a left game. Is it just a slump, or is there something more for these two short stops? Javier Baez. O for four with three strikeouts yesterday in his previous 17 games. He was batting 246 with no walks and 12 strikeouts with a 678 OPS. Javier Baez has slumped. And D.D. Gregorius is six for 62.

Six for 62 with four walks and 11 strikeouts in his last 15 games. This is what we're talking about, Adam, right? Uh-huh. Like, D.D. Gregorius, way over his head. There needs to be a slump to compensate, right? Six to six to six. Of course. I can't believe you guys didn't trade him exactly 62 at Bats ago.

Well, it doesn't mean he's not a top five shortstop. He literally is a top five short stuff. Then it's not actionable information. It's not actionable. In many cases, it may not be actionable information. I agree. I think what's actionable for me in this case is that Gregorius, in a 6-for-62 slump, still only has 11 strikeouts.

So I think that's a good sign. Well, that's always. He's always made a lot of contact. He's due to strike out more. He was due to strike out more. He's always made a lot of contact. And Javier buys his contact rate is still way up this year. his line drive rate is still way up.

Like, I still think this is a breakout and it's just a slump. So that's the interesting thing about Javier Bayes is he's not really making more contact. He's not striking out. But he is swinging and missing a ton still. He's just swinging at everything. And so he's more likely to hit when he swings than not hit. I don't know if that's sustainable. I don't know if you can just keep swinging at every single.

Like, he's swung at 60% of the pitches he's seen for, this season. His career rate's 54%. I don't know if you can keep hitting the ball hard while just not discerning whether a pitch is good to hit or not. But looking at his bad at ball profile, especially considering his line drive rate is way up this year, it's having some bad bad bet look all of a sudden. It's about, it's 56 points lower than it was last year. Yeah, but he has an 18% infield lower than his career. 18% infield fly ball rate, so I don't know how much bad luck there is there. Maybe not luck, but I do think there's – I think he's fine, ultimately,

weighing the positives and negatives. But, you know, and even a different question here, how good can a guy be if he has six walks and four of them intentional? He's drawn two unintentional walks in 37 games, Hobby bias. Another fair point. I don't know. There's a lot to go on here. And here's the other thing.

As I recall, this is a guy who's destroyed lefties and struggled against righties. Not yet this year. It's been reversed for bias. So he'll probably come around against lefties. He has a four – he's got like a 700 OPS against lefties, batting 200 against them. So he's probably going to be better there. There's a lot of ways this could go with Hobby bias. I mean, but we do see last year as like the worst case scenario, right?

And he was still – I mean, are any of – us questioning whether he's going to hit 25 home runs this year? No. He had 23 last year and less playing time. What about 30? I mean, I still feel like 30's a safe bet. Yeah, I think he's a good source of power and speed. I just don't think he's going to do much else.

Bobby lies. And I don't necessarily buy the breakout. I don't think his skills have taken a big step forward. All right, we're going to finish the show with some more. Great the trade. Yeah, there we go. Good timing this time. Corey from Michigan.

Great the trade. Give up Stephen Strasbourg. Get Clayton Kershaw. Yeah. What? T-plus. It seems a little harsh. No, I rank Kershaw ahead of Strasbourg, so I'll go C-plus.

Wait, wait, did I hear it backwards? I think Chris heard it backwards. You're giving up Strasbourg to get Kershaw. Yeah, you're giving up a guy who's currently healthy for a guy who's currently hurt and has a history of injuries. Well, it's true that Stephen Strasbourg does not have a history of injuries. I mean, fair, but he's not currently hurt, and I don't think we can say Clayton Kershaw is safer than Stephen Strasbourg.

Yeah, he's better, but there have been enough drops in Clayton Kershaw's skill over the last year and a quarter that I don't necessarily know if he's dramatic. dramatically better than Stephen Strasbourg to the point where it makes up for the injury risk and makes up for the fact that, again, one of them is currently pitching in competitive baseball games and the other is maybe playing catch tomorrow. Heath and I both have Kirshall exactly one spot ahead of Strasbourg, so the lowest I could give this is a C. Okay.

From Ryan, grade the trade, D. Gordon, Mitch Hanager, and a 2019 third round pick. D. Gordon, Mitch Hanager, and a 2019 third round pick for Bryce Harper and Brian Dozier. Which side, is he getting Harper? Yes. That's an A. See, it's tricky hearing these. Yeah, he's getting the two best players in the deal, Harper and Dozier. I agree, that's an A.

I mean, in Roto, I think D Gordon might be better than Dozier. I think it's really close. I think they're both second to third round. Yeah. Yeah, but this is a win. This is a good trade. I mean, I don't know exactly what a third round pick is valued as, because I don't know how many players are being kept, if any.

But I'm still inclined to say this is an easy win. This is from Scott, grade the trade. Six by six, head-to-head categories. Okay, here we go. He gives up Carlos Carrasco, Miguel Cabrera, and Teoscar Hernandez. He will get the best player in the deal, Jose Ramirez, and Marvin Gonzalez. Again, give up Carasco, Miguel Cabrera, and Tay Oscar Hernandez.

Get Jose Ramirez and Marvin Gonzalez. That's probably a C-minus. Really? I agree with Chris. Yeah. Like, getting Jose Ramirez is awesome. He's an incredible player. He's a first-round player.

But I don't think Marvin Gonzalez has much value at all. Okay. I'm not sure he has more value than Tcha Hernandez. I don't think Teosker Hernandez has less value than Marring's dollars. So let's just eliminate those two. And it's Carlos Carrasco and an injured who knows when he's going to come back, Miguel Cabrera for Jose Ramirez. Okay, I agree.

I still think that's a win. C plus. Yeah, B plus is what I was going to say. Oh, I said C plus, but sure. Oh. All right, now I think it's a win. Sorry, Chris. I'm on team scam.

Ryan and Boston, our last trade. grade the trade, head-to-head categories, OPS League. Give Bryce Harper. Get Goldschmidt and Bregman. Harper for Goldschmidt and Bregman. That's really interesting. I think the trade chart that was just released yesterday, or is going to be released today, I should say,

would show this as a win for the person giving up Harper. But I'm always reluctant to give up the best player in the deal. I still think it's a win. I will give it a B. I would say it's a C, but it's not a trade that I would feel comfortable making. I think it's a better trade in a points lead because Goldschman and Bregman, well, Goldschmidt's striking out a ton, but they're both going to be pretty good with walk-to-strike-out ratio, and so is Harper, but you're at least getting two players who probably have more value in points than Roto.

All right then. Thank you guys. Chris and Scott. Good show. We even got a who-framed Roger Rabbit reference in there. Did not expect that. You never know what the day will break. I love Who-Framed Roger Rabbit reference. Isn't that such just like a... Great movie. It's just such a random movie.

It is. It's extremely good. Very good. All right. Thanks, everybody. We will talk to you on Thursday. See ya.